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【TED 演讲｜中英字幕】如何在压力很大时保持冷静 | Ho

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:13A few years ago, I broke into my own house.几年前,我闯进自己的房子
0:17I had just driven home.我刚开车回家
0:18It was around midnight in the dead of Montreal winter.当时是蒙特利尔冬天午夜左右
0:20I'd been visiting my friend Jeff across town,我拜访了我的朋友杰夫 过城,
0:24and the thermometer on the front porch read minus 40 degrees.前廊的温度计是零下40度
0:28And don't bother asking if that's Celsius or Fahrenheit.别问那是摄氏还是华氏
0:31Minus 40 is where the two scales meet.减40是两个天平交汇的地方.
0:33It was very cold.当时很冷
0:34And as I stood on the front porch fumbling in my pocket,当我站在前门廊 摇晃在我的口袋,
0:38I found I didn't have my keys.我发现我没有钥匙
展开字幕全文（263 条）
序号英文中文
1A few years ago, I broke into my own house.几年前,我闯进自己的房子
2I had just driven home.我刚开车回家
3It was around midnight in the dead of Montreal winter.当时是蒙特利尔冬天午夜左右
4I'd been visiting my friend Jeff across town,我拜访了我的朋友杰夫 过城,
5and the thermometer on the front porch read minus 40 degrees.前廊的温度计是零下40度
6And don't bother asking if that's Celsius or Fahrenheit.别问那是摄氏还是华氏
7Minus 40 is where the two scales meet.减40是两个天平交汇的地方.
8It was very cold.当时很冷
9And as I stood on the front porch fumbling in my pocket,当我站在前门廊 摇晃在我的口袋,
10I found I didn't have my keys.我发现我没有钥匙
11In fact, I could see them through the window事实上,我可以从窗户看到他们
12lying on the dining room table, where I had left them.躺在餐厅的桌子上 我把它们扔在那里了
13So I quickly ran around and tried all the other doors and windows,所以我很快跑来跑去 尝试其他的门窗,
14and they were locked tight.他们被锁紧了
15I thought about calling a locksmith.我想给锁匠打电话
16At least I had my cell phone,至少我有我的手机,
17but at midnight, it could take a while for a locksmith to show up,但午夜的时候 锁匠要花点时间出现
18and it was cold.当时很冷
19I couldn't go back to my friend Jeff's house for the night我无法回到我的朋友杰夫家过夜
20because I had an early flight to Europe the next morning,第二天早上我搭早班飞机去欧洲
21and I needed to get my passport and my suitcase.我需要我的护照和行李箱
22So desperate and freezing cold,如此绝望和寒冷,
23I found a large rock,我找到一块大石头
24and I broke through the basement window,我闯进地下室的窗户
25cleared out the shards of glass.清除了玻璃的碎片。
26I crawled through.我爬过
27I found a piece of cardboard and taped it up over the whole opening,我找到一块纸板 并把它录在了整个开口,
28figuring that in the morning, on the way to the airport,在早上去机场的路上
29I could call my contractor and ask him to fix it.我可以打电话给我的承包商 让他修好它
30This was going to be expensive,这个会很贵的
31but probably no more expensive than a middle-of-the-night locksmith.但可能不会比夜中锁匠更贵
32So I figured, under the circumstances, I was coming out even.所以我想,在这种情况下, 我出来甚至。
33Now, I'm a neuroscientist by training,现在,我是一个神经科学家 通过训练,
34and I know a little bit about how the brain performs under stress.我略知大脑在压力下的表现
35It releases cortisol, that raises your heart rate,它释放出皮质醇, 提高你的心率,
36it modulates adrenaline levels, and it clouds your thinking.它会调节肾上腺素水平, 它会影响你的思维。
37So the next morning, when I woke up,所以第二天早上 当我醒来时
38I'm too little sleep,我睡不着
39worrying about the hole in the window担心窗户上的洞
40and the mental note that I had to call my contractor和精神笔记 我不得不打电话给我的承包商
41and the freezing temperatures和寒冷的温度
42and the meetings I had upcoming in Europe.和即将在欧洲召开的会议。
43And with all the cortisol in my brain,和所有的皮质醇在我的大脑,
44my thinking was cloudy,我当时想的很模糊
45but I didn't know it was cloudy, because my thinking was cloudy.但我不知道这有云, 因为我的想法有云。
46And it wasn't until I got to the airport check-in counter直到我到机场报到台
47that I realized I didn't have my passport.我意识到我没有我的护照。
48So I raced home in the snow and ice, 40 minutes,所以我在冰雪中骑马回家 40分钟
49got my passport, raced back to the airport.拿到我的护照,跑回机场
50I made it just in time,我及时赶到了
51but they had given away my seat to someone else,但他们把我的位置让给了别人,
52so I got stuck in the back of the plane, next to the bathrooms,所以我被困在飞机后面 浴室旁边
53in a seat that wouldn't recline on an eight-hour flight.坐在一个不会在8小时的航班上靠边的座位上
54Well, I had a lot of time to think during those eight hours in no sleep.我有很多时间想 在那8小时里,没有睡觉。
55And I started wondering, are there things that I can do,我开始想,有什么我可以做的,
56systems that I can put into place,我可以设置的系统,
57that will prevent bad things from happening,以免发生坏事,
58or at least if bad things happen,或者至少如果发生坏事
59will minimize the likelihood of it being a total catastrophe?将尽可能降低成为一场大灾难的可能性?
60So I started thinking about that,所以我开始想这个,
61but my thoughts didn't crystallize until about a month later.但我的想法直到一个月后才结晶
62I was having dinner with my colleague, Danny Kahneman,我和我的同事丹尼・卡恩曼一起吃晚餐
63the Nobel Prize winner,诺贝尔奖得主
64and I somewhat embarrassedly told him about having broken my window我有点尴尬地告诉他我打破了窗户
65and, you know, forgot my passport.还忘了我的护照
66And Danny shared with me that he'd been practicing丹尼告诉我他一直在练习
67something called Prospective Hindsight.叫做"未来幻觉"的东西
68It's something that he had gotten from the psychologist Gary Klein,这是他从心理学家Gary Klein那里得到的东西
69who had written about it a few years before,他曾写过,
70also called the Premortem,也叫尸检,
71Now, you all know what the postmortem is.你们都知道死后是什么
72Whenever there's a disaster, a team of experts come in,每当有灾难, 一个专家小组进来,
73and they try to figure out what went wrong, right?他们试着找出出了什么事,对吧?
74Well, in the premortem, Danny explained,Danny在尸检前解释说
75you look ahead and you try to figure out all the things that could go wrong,你向前看 试着找出所有可能出错的事
76and then you try to figure out what you can do然后再想办法
77to prevent those things from happening or to minimize the damage.防止这些事情发生 或尽量减少损害。
78So what I want to talk to you about today今天我想跟你谈的事
79are some of the things we can do in the form of a premortem.以尸检为形式可以做一些事情
80Some of them are obvious.其中一些是明显的。
81Some of them are not so obvious.其中一些并不明显。
82I'll start with the obvious ones.我先从明显的那些开始
83Around the home,在家周围
84designate a place for things that are easily lost.为容易丢失的东西指定一个位置。
85Now, this sounds like common sense, and it is,现在,这听起来像常识,它是,
86but there's a lot of science to back this up但有很多科学可以证明这一点
87based on the way our spatial memory works.基于我们的空间记忆工作方式。
88There's a structure in the brain called the hippocampus大脑里有一个叫做河马营的结构
89that evolved over tens of thousands of years数万年来演变的
90to keep track of the locations of important things,追踪重要事物的位置,
91where the well is, where fish can be found,井在哪里 鱼在哪里
92that stand of fruit trees,那棵果树,
93where the friendly and enemy tribes live.友好和敌对的部落住的地方。
94The hippocampus is the part of the brain河马是大脑的一部分
95that in London taxi cab drivers becomes enlarged.在伦敦的出租车司机 已经扩大。
96It's the part of the brain that allows squirrels to find their nuts.这是大脑中允许松鼠找到坚果的部分.
97And if you're wondering, somebody actually did the experiment如果你想知道,有人真的做了实验
98where they cut off the olfactory sense of the squirrels他们把松鼠的嗅觉切断了
99and they could still find their nuts.他们仍然可以找到自己的坚果。
100They weren't using smell, they were using the hippocampus.他们不是用气味,而是用河马
101This exquisitely evolved mechanism in the brain for finding things,这种在大脑中精细进化的寻找事物的机制,
102but it's really good for things that don't move around much,但它真的很好的东西 不移动很多,
103not so good for things that move around.对移动的东西来说不是那么好
104So this is why we lose car keys and reading glasses and passports.这就是为什么我们失去了车钥匙 和阅读眼镜和护照。
105So in the home, designate a spot for your keys,所以在家里 给钥匙指定位置
106a hook by the door, maybe a decorative bowl,门边的钩子 也许是装饰性的碗
107for your passport, a particular drawer,给你的护照 一个抽屉
108for your reading glasses, a particular table.你的眼镜,一张桌子
109If you designate a spot and you're scrupulous about it,如果你指定了一个位置 并且你对此很谨慎
110your things will always be there when you look for them.你的东西总是在那里 当你寻找它们。
111What about travel?旅行怎么办?
112Take a cell phone picture of your credit cards,给信用卡拍张手机照片
113your driver's license, your passport.你的驾照 护照
114Mail it to yourself so it's in the cloud.寄给自己,所以在云中.
115If these things are lost or stolen, you can facilitate replacement.如果这些东西丢失或被盗,你可以方便替换.
116Now, these are some rather obvious things.现在,这些都是一些相当明显的事情。
117Remember, when you're under stress, the brain releases cortisol.记住,当你紧张的时候, 大脑释放皮质醇。
118Cortisol is toxic and it causes cloudy thinking.科蒂索尔有毒,引起云雾思维.
119So part of the practice of the premortem验尸实践的一部分
120is to recognize that under stress, you're not going to be at your best,是承认在压力下 你不可能达到最佳状态
121and you should put systems in place.你应该建立系统
122And there's perhaps no more stressful a situation也许没有压力了
123than when you're confronted with a medical decision to make.比你面对的医学决定。
124And at some point, all of us are going to be in that position在某个时候,我们都会处于这种地位
125where we have to make a very important decision在那里我们必须做出一个非常重要的决定
126about the future of our medical care or that of a loved one,关于我们未来的医疗 或爱人的未来,
127to help them with the decision.帮助他们做出决定。
128And so I want to talk about that.所以我想谈谈
129And I'm going to talk about a very particular medical condition,我要谈谈一个非常特别的病情
130but this stands as a proxy for all kinds of medical decision-making但这代表着各种医疗决策
131and indeed for financial decision-making and social decision-making,事实上,对于财政决策和社会决策,
132any kind of decision you have to make任何你必须做的决定
133that would benefit from a rational assessment of the facts.合理评估事实会有好处。
134So suppose you go to your doctor and the doctor says,所以,如果你去你的医生 医生说,
135I just got your lab work back.我刚让你的实验室恢复工作
136Your cholesterol is a little high.你的胆固醇有点高
137Now, you all know that high cholesterol is associated现在,你们都知道高胆固醇是相关的
138with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease,心血管疾病的风险增加,
139heart attacks, stroke.心脏病 中风
140And so you're thinking,所以,你认为,
141having high cholesterol isn't the best thing.有高胆固醇不是最好的事情。
142And so the doctor says,所以医生说,
143you know, I'd like to give you a drug我想给你点药
144that'll help you lower your cholesterol, a statin.这会帮助你降低胆固醇,一种安定剂。
145And you've probably heard of statins.而且你可能听说过Statins。
146You know that they're among the most widely prescribed drugs in the world today.你知道他们是今天世界上 处方最广泛的药物之一。
147You probably even know people who take them.你可能甚至知道谁服用它们。
148And so you're thinking, yeah, give me the statin.所以你在想,是的, 给我的Statin。
149But there's a question you should ask at this point,但你现在应该问一个问题
150a statistic you should ask for,统计你应该要求,
151that most doctors don't like talking about,大多数医生不喜欢谈论,
152and pharmaceutical companies like talking about even less.和制药公司 喜欢谈论更少。
153It's for the number needed to treat.是为需要治疗的号码.
154Now, what is this, the NNT?这是什么 NNT?
155It's the number of people that need to take a drug是需要服药的人数
156or undergo a surgery or any medical procedure或接受手术或任何医疗手术
157before one person is helped.在一个人被帮助之前
158And you're thinking, what kind of crazy statistic is that?你在想,那是什么疯狂的统计?
159The number should be one.号码应该是一个。
160My doctor wouldn't prescribe something to me if it's not going to help.我的医生不会给我开药 如果它不会帮助我。
161But actually, medical practice doesn't work that way.但实际上,医学实践并不是这样的.
162And it's not the doctor's fault.亦非大夫所为.
163If anybody's fault, it's the fault of scientists like me.如果有人的过错,那就是我这样的科学家的过错.
164We haven't figured out the underlying mechanisms well enough.我们还没有很好地找出潜在的机制。
165But GlaxoSmithKline estimates但葛兰素史密斯克线估计
166that 90 percent of the drugs work in only 30 to 50 percent of the people.百分之九十的毒品只在30%到50%的人群中起作用。
167So the number needed to treat for the most widely prescribed statin,因此,治疗最广泛规定的Statin所需的数字,
168what do you suppose it is?你觉得是什么?
169How many people have to take it before one person's helped?在一个人得到帮助之前,有多少人需要接受?
170300.300块。
171This is according to research by research practitioners这是根据研究实践者的研究
172Jerome Gruppen and Pamela Hartzband,杰罗姆·格鲁彭和帕梅拉·哈茨班德,
173由Bloomberg.com独立确认.
174I ran through the numbers myself.我亲自查过号码
175300 people have to take the drug for a year300人必须服药一年
176before one heart attack, stroke or other adverse event is prevented.在预防心脏病发作、中风或其他不利事件之前。
177Now, you're probably thinking, well, OK,现在,你可能想, 好吧,好吧,
178one in 300 chance of lowering my cholesterol.三百分之一的机会 降低我的胆固醇。
179Why not, doc?为什么不呢,医生?
180Give me the prescription anyway.把处方给我
181But you should ask at this point for another statistic,但你现在应该问另一个统计,
182and that is, tell me about the side effects, right?也就是说 告诉我副作用 对吧?
183So for this particular drug,所以,对于这个特定的药物,
184the side effects occur in five percent of the patients.副作用发生在5%的病人身上
185And they include terrible things,包括可怕的东西,
186debilitating muscle and joint pain,肌肉衰弱 关节疼痛
187gastrointestinal distress.肠胃烦恼.
188But now you're thinking, well, 5 percent,但你现在在想 5%
189not very likely it's going to happen to me, I'll still take the drug.不太可能发生在我身上, 我还是会服药。
190But wait a minute, remember, under stress we're not thinking clearly,但是,等一下,记住,在压力下 我们没有清楚的思考,
191so think about how you're going to work through this ahead of time想想你如何提前完成这个任务
192so you don't have to manufacture the chain of reasoning on the spot.所以,你不必制造链 推理在现场。
193300 people take the drug, right?300人服药,对吧?
194One person's helped.一个人的帮助。
195Five percent of those 300 have side effects.这300人中有5%有副作用
196That's 15 people.即为十五人.
197You're 15 times more likely to be harmed by the drug你被毒品伤害的可能性是15倍
198than you are to be helped by the drug.比你得到药物的帮助。
199Now, I'm not saying whether you should take the statin or not.现在,我不是说,你是否应该 服用Statin。
200I'm just saying you should have this conversation with your doctor.我只是说你应该跟你的医生谈谈
201Medical ethics requires it.医学伦理需要它。
202It's part of the principle of informed consent.这是知情同意原则的一部分.
203You have the right to have access to this kind of information你有权获取这种信息
204to begin the conversation开始谈话
205about whether you want to take the risks or not.关于你是否愿意冒险。
206Now, you might be thinking,现在,你可能会想,
207I've pulled this number out of the air for shock value.我从空气中提取了这个号码 以示冲击值
208But in fact, it's rather typical, this number needed to treat.但事实上,这是相当典型的, 这个数字需要治疗。
209For the most widely performed surgery on men over the age of 50,对50岁以上的男子进行最广泛的手术,
210removal of the prostate for cancer,清除癌症前列腺,
211the number needed to treat is 49.要治疗的号码是49
212That's right, 49 surgeries are done for every one person who's helped.对,每个被帮助的人都要做49次手术.
213And the side effects in that case occur in 50 percent of the patients.而这种病例的副作用 发生在50%的病人身上。
214They include impotence, erectile dysfunction,包括无能 勃起功能障碍
215urinary incontinence, rectal tearing, fecal incontinence.尿失禁,直肠撕裂,大肠失禁.
216And if you're lucky,如果你幸运的话,
217and you're one of the 50 percent who has these,你是50%拥有这些的人之一
218they'll only last for a year or two.只能持续一两年
219So the idea of the premortem is to think ahead of time所以尸检的想法是提前思考
220to the questions that you might be able to ask你可能可以问的问题
221that will push the conversation forward.这会推动对话前进。
222You don't want to have to manufacture all of this on the spot.你不需要当场制造这些东西
223And you also want to think about things like quality of life,你也想想想生活的质量
224because you have a choice oftentimes.因为你经常有选择
225Do I want a shorter life that's pain-free,我想要一个没有痛苦的短命,
226or a longer life that might have a great deal of pain towards the end?或更长的寿命 可能会有巨大的痛苦到最后?
227These are things to talk about and think about now这些都是现在要谈和思考的事情
228with your family and your loved ones.与你的家人和亲人。
229You might change your mind in the heat of the moment,你可能会改变你的想法 在热的时刻,
230but at least you're practiced with this kind of thinking.但至少你练习过这种思维
231Remember, our brain, under stress, releases cortisol.记住,我们的大脑,在压力下,释放皮质醇。
232And one of the things that happens at that moment那时发生的事情之一
233is a whole bunch of systems shut down.整个系统都被关闭了
234There's an evolutionary reason for this.有进化之因.
235Face-to-face with a predator,和食肉动物面对面
236you don't need your digestive system or your libido or your immune system,你不需要你的消化系统 或你的性欲或免疫系统,
237because if your body is expending metabolism on those things因为如果你的身体 花在那些东西上
238and you don't react quickly,你没有反应
239you might become the lion's lunch,你可能会成为狮子的午餐,
240and then none of those things matter.然后这些都不重要
241Unfortunately, one of the things that goes out the window很不幸,有一件事会从窗外消失
242during those times of stress is rational, logical thinking,在这些压力时期 是理性的逻辑思考,
243as Danny Kahneman and his colleagues have shown.正如丹尼·卡恩曼和他的同事所显示的
244So we need to train ourselves to think ahead to these kinds of situations.因此,我们需要训练自己,以便对这些局势进行前瞻性思考。
245I think the important point here我认为这里的要点
246is recognizing that all of us are flawed.承认我们所有人都有缺陷。
247We all are going to fail now and then.我们都会不时失败。
248The idea is to think ahead to what those failures might be,想法是先考虑这些失败可能是什么,
249to put systems in place that will help minimize the damage建立有助于尽量减少损害的系统
250or to prevent the bad things from happening in the first place.或者防止坏事发生
251Getting back to that snowy night in Montreal,回到蒙特利尔的雪雪之夜,
252when I got back from my trip,当我从旅行回来时,
253I had my contractor install a combination lock next to the door我让承包商在门边装了个密码锁
254with a key to the front door in it,里面有前门的钥匙
255an easy-to-remember combination.一个容易记住的组合。
256And I have to admit, I still have piles of mail that haven't been sorted我必须承认,我还有一堆没有整理的邮件
257and piles of emails that I haven't gone through.还有一堆我还没读过的邮件
258So I'm not completely organized,所以我没有完全组织
259but I see organization as a gradual process,但我认为组织是一个渐进的过程,
260and I'm getting there.我会赶到那里。
261Thank you very much.谢谢
262(*Applause*)(*鼓掌*)
263And piles of emails that I haven't gone through.还有一堆我还没读过的邮件
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