TED 演讲｜你真的有自己想象中那么厉害吗？

发布于 2026-10-14 · 时长 10:50

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:04	I don't mean to brag, but there are lots of things that I'm pretty average at, from playing	我不是故意吹嘘,但有很多事情我相当平均,从玩
0:09	table tennis, cooking risotto, finding countries on a map, just to name a few.	网球桌,烹饪里索托, 在地图上找到国家, 仅举几个例子。
0:14	Now, in our	现在,在我们
0:15	everyday lives, we're not typically assessed on our skills and abilities, so we're forced	日常生活, 我们通常不评估我们的技能和能力, 所以我们被迫
0:19	to rely on our own judgments.	依赖我们自己的判断。
0:21	I may think I'm pretty decent with Italian cuisine, but	我可能觉得我对意大利菜很体面但是
0:24	how accurate is my assessment?	我的评估有多准确?
0:27	Now, what we're talking about here is metacognition, our insight	现在,我们在这里谈论的是元识别,我们的洞察力
0:31	in thorough thought processes.	在彻底的思考过程中。
0:33	If I have good metacognitive insight, then how good I think	如果我有很好的认知洞察力,那么我认为如何好

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序号	英文	中文
1	I don't mean to brag, but there are lots of things that I'm pretty average at, from playing	我不是故意吹嘘,但有很多事情我相当平均,从玩
2	table tennis, cooking risotto, finding countries on a map, just to name a few.	网球桌,烹饪里索托, 在地图上找到国家, 仅举几个例子。
3	Now, in our	现在,在我们
4	everyday lives, we're not typically assessed on our skills and abilities, so we're forced	日常生活, 我们通常不评估我们的技能和能力, 所以我们被迫
5	to rely on our own judgments.	依赖我们自己的判断。
6	I may think I'm pretty decent with Italian cuisine, but	我可能觉得我对意大利菜很体面但是
7	how accurate is my assessment?	我的评估有多准确?
8	Now, what we're talking about here is metacognition, our insight	现在,我们在这里谈论的是元识别,我们的洞察力
9	in thorough thought processes.	在彻底的思考过程中。
10	If I have good metacognitive insight, then how good I think	如果我有很好的认知洞察力,那么我认为如何好
11	I am at a particular task should line up pretty well with how good I actually am.	我身处一个特殊的任务... ...应该与我到底有多优秀相适应
12	Of course,	当然
13	in the real world, this is often not the case.	在现实世界,情况往往并非如此。
14	And indeed, we probably all know someone who	事实上,我们也许都认识一个
15	thinks they're great at navigating maps, when in fact the reality is often the opposite.	认为他们擅长航海地图,而事实上现实往往是相反的.
16	Not to name any names, of course.	当然不是说名字的
17	But still, perhaps you think this applies to other people	不过也许你觉得这适用于其他人
18	and that you yourself wouldn't make this sort of mistake.	而你自己也不会犯这种错误
19	So let's try a quick experiment.	所以让我们试试快速的实验。
20	I want you to think about how you would rate yourself in terms of your driving ability.	我要你考虑一下你如何看待自己的驾驶能力
21	Would you rate yourself as below average, average, or perhaps even above average?	你会将自己评为低于平均水平,平均,甚至高于平均水平吗?
22	So	这么说
23	most people rate themselves as above average, which of course is mathematically impossible	大多数人认为自己高于平均水平, 当然数学上是不可能的
24	and something that we call the better-than-average effect.	我们称之为比一般效果更好的东西
25	This is just one of a number of cognitive	这只是一些认知之一
26	biases that we see when people judge their own abilities.	当人们判断自己的能力时,我们看到了偏见。
27	Today, I'm going to focus on	今天,我要集中精力
28	a related bias, the Dunning-Kruger effect.	相关的偏差,邓宁-克鲁格效应.
29	So back in 1999, two psychologists at Cornell	在1999年康奈尔的两位心理学家
30	University, Dunning and Kruger, describe the mistakes people make when estimating their	大学,邓宁和克鲁格, 描述人们在估计他们的
31	own abilities.	拥有自己的能力
32	So if we take a sample of people and we divide them into four groups based	所以,如果我们抽样并把他们分成四组
33	on their scores on a test and order those groups from lowest to highest, if we plot	测试他们的分数并排序这些组从最低到最高,如果我们计划
34	those scores on a graph, along with their self-estimates, so how well they thought they	那些在图表上的分数, 连同他们的自我估计, 所以他们认为他们有多好
35	did on the test.	测试时做的。
36	This is the pattern that we see.	这就是我们所看到的规律。
37	So the red line is a steep slope representing	因此,红线是一个陡峭的斜坡代表
38	the actual scores, as it must be since we ordered the groups based on their scores in	实际得分因为我们根据他们的得分
39	the first place.	第一个地方
40	Now, what's interesting is the blue, shallower line.	现在,有趣的是蓝的,浅的线条。
41	This represents	这代表
42	their self-estimates, so how good they thought they did on the test.	他们的自我估计, 所以他们认为他们在测试中有多好。
43	Now, the Dunning-Kruger	现在,邓宁克鲁格
44	effect describes how the weakest performers significantly overestimate their performance,	效果说明最弱的表演者如何大大高估他们的表演,
45	shown here in the green oval.	这里显示在绿色椭圆形。
46	据Dunning和Kruger说,
47	is that insight and ability rely on the same thing.	洞察力和能力依赖于同样的东西。
48	So if I'm poor at a task, I also lack	所以,如果我贫穷在一个任务,我也缺乏
49	the metacognitive insight to accurately assess my ability.	准确评估我的能力
50	Now, this pattern has been seen	现在,这种模式已经看到
51	again and again across a number of domains, from driving skill to exam taking, even chess	从驾驶技能到考试甚至下棋
52	playing.	弹奏。
53	However, in recent years, a number of criticisms have been levelled at this approach,	然而,近年来,有人对这一方针提出一些批评,
54	and we now have reason to believe that this pattern results is virtually unavoidable.	我们现在有理由相信,这种模式的结果几乎是不可避免的。
55	One reason for this is the statistical effect regression to the mean.	其原因之一是统计效应回归到平均值。
56	Now, this is something	现在,这个东西
57	that comes about when we have two measures that are related, but not perfectly so.	当我们有两项相关措施时, 却并非完全如此。
58	So	这么说
59	imagine we have a sample of people and we measure their heights and their weights.	想象一下我们有一个人样本我们测量他们的身高和体重
60	Now,	现在,
61	height and weight are related, tall people are typically heavier, but the relationship	身高和体重是相对的,高人一般都比较重,但关系
62	is far from perfect.	远非完美。
63	So unlike in the figure at the top here, the shortest people in red	和这里顶端的人物不同最短的红色人物
64	won't all be the lightest people.	不会都是最轻的人
65	Some of them will be overweight or particularly muscular,	有些会超重或肌肉特别强壮
66	for example.	举个例子
67	Similarly, the top end, the tallest people in blue won't all be the heaviest people.	同样,顶端,最高的蓝衣人不会都是最重的人.
68	Some of them will be underweight and so on.	有的会体重不足等.
69	Now, as a result, on average, the shortest people will	因此,平均来说,最短的人会
70	rank higher for weight than they do for height, and the tallest people will rank lower for weight	体重比身高高身高最高的人体重会低
71	than they do for height, producing this blue line here and the crossover pattern you're now	而不是高度, 产生这个蓝线在这里和交叉模式你现在
72	becoming familiar with.	变得熟悉。
73	Now, some people might put forward a spurious explanation for why short	现在,有些人可能会提出一个虚假的解释为什么短
74	people are relatively overweight or tall people relatively underweight when, in fact, no explanation	人们相对超重或高相对低于体重,事实上,没有解释
75	is needed.	需要帮助。
76	Perhaps more compelling a reason to doubt the Dunning-Kruger effect is that we	也许更令人怀疑邓宁 -克鲁格效应的理由是
77	can produce the same pattern in our data when our data is entirely meaningless.	当我们的数据完全没有意义时, 就能产生同样的数据模式。
78	So, if we collect	所以,如果我们收集
79	people's test scores along with their self estimates of those scores, but then we shuffle	人们的测试分数和他们自己估计的分数, 但我们洗牌
80	those self estimates and then analyse as before, then we still find that same pattern in the data.	这些自我估计,然后像以前一样分析, 然后,我们仍然在数据中找到同样的模式。
81	Of course, any effect that we can find with shuffled or randomised data is one that we	当然,我们用被洗刷或随机的数据能够发现的任何效果,都是我们
82	should surely be suspicious of.	肯定有可疑之处
83	So, given these and other issues with the Dunning-Kruger approach,	因此,鉴于这些和其他问题与邓宁-克鲁格的方法,
84	I was saddened and disappointed and frankly a little annoyed to discover that the same approach	我感到悲伤和失望,坦率地说,我发现同样的方法
85	was now being implied in my field of expertise, which is face matching.	我的专业领域现在被暗示了, 面相匹配。
86	Now, this is a task where	现在,这是一个任务在那里,
87	we're showing two images of faces or an image in a live person and we're asked to decide whether	我们在现场展示两个面孔的画面或者一个画面我们被要求决定是否
88	they show the same person or two different people.	它们显示的是同一个人或两个不同的人。
89	Now, we've all stood in line at passport control	现在,我们都排队护照管制
90	anxiously awaiting the passport officer's decision as to whether our ID photos look	急着等护照官决定我们的身份证照片看起来是不是
91	sufficiently like us or not.	完全喜欢我们与否。
92	Indeed, I've included at the top here some examples of ID images from	事实上,我在这里的顶部包含了一些身份识别图像的例子
93	my own life just to illustrate some variability.	我自己的生活只是为了说明一些变化
94	Some proud moments in photographic history,	在摄影史上的一些骄傲时刻,
95	I'm sure that you'll agree.	我相信你会同意的
96	And so, what I'd like to do now is first see how well you might perform	所以,我现在想做的是首先看看你表现如何
97	as passport officers.	作为护照官员。
98	So, here are four pairs of images, some student ID images and some student	所以,这里有四对图像, 一些学生身份图像和一些学生
99	photos.	图片。
100	For each pair, I'd like you to decide whether it's a match, so two images of the same	对于每对,我希望你决定它是否匹配, 所以两个图像相同的
101	person, or a mismatch, two images of different people.	人,或错配, 两种不同的人的形象。
102	Some of you might be surprised to hear	你们中有些人可能会惊讶地听到
103	that the top two pairs are matches, so images of the same people, and the bottom two pairs	上面两对是匹配的, 所以图像是相同的人, 和下两对
104	show mismatches, so two different people.	显示不匹配,所以两个不同的人。
105	Now, we know this task is particularly difficult	我们知道这个任务特别困难
106	when the images show identities that we're unfamiliar with.	当图像显示我们不熟悉的身份时
107	This is because it's hard to	这是因为很难
108	account the changes that can happen to the face across time, as well as over different situations,	说明不同时期以及不同情况下可能发生的变化,
109	so changes in facial expression or lighting, for instance.	比如面部表情或照明的变化
110	We know this task is difficult	我们知道这任务很困难
111	for passport officers as well, and they also make mistakes.	护照官员也会犯错误
112	So, this is why I thought it would be	所以,这就是为什么我认为这是
113	particularly interesting to look at the relationship between insight and ability in this important	特别有意思的是,在这一重要领域,审视洞察力与能力之间的关系。
114	security context.	安全环境。
115	So, given the issues we've described already, we're looking at overall	所以,考虑到我们已经描述过的问题, 我们正在研究总体
116	scores and people's self-estimates.	分数和人们的自我估计.
117	I instead decided to focus on individual decision-making.	我决定把重点放在个人决策上。
118	So, over a series of experiments, I asked people to look at pairs of images and decide whether they	因此,通过一系列实验,我要求人们看一对图像,然后决定是否
119	were a match or a mismatch, but I also asked people to provide a rating of confidence in each	但我也要求人们给每个人一个信任的评分
120	decision.	决定。
121	Now, good metacognitive insights would be reflected in people being much more confident	现在,良好的元感知将会体现在人们更加自信
122	in decisions that turned out to be correct, and much less confident in decisions that turned out	而不是对最终决定的信心
123	to be incorrect.	是不正确的。
124	So, let's have a look at how people did.	所以,让我们来看看人们是如何做的。
125	Now, I think this pattern is particularly	现在,我觉得这个模式特别
126	fascinating, but also fairly intuitive.	迷人,但也相当直观。
127	Let's start with the red line, which represents people's	我们从红线开始代表人们的
128	confidence in their incorrect responses.	相信他们的反应不正确。
129	So, as you can see, it doesn't matter how good people were	所以,如你所见,这不重要人有多好
130	at the test overall, represented by the score on the x-axis at the bottom there.	以底部的X轴上的分数为代表。
131	People were	人们是
132	approximately the same in terms of their confidence when they were incorrect.	当他们不忠的时候,他们的信心是一样的。
133	Now, what's interesting	现在,有趣的是
134	is the blue line, which represents confidence when people were correct in their decisions.	是蓝线,代表人们在决定正确时的信心。
135	As you can see, the best performers on the test were much more confident in their correct responses	如你所见测试中表现最好的人更有信心他们的正确反应
136	in comparison with their incorrect ones.	与其不正确者相比。
137	So, it showed good metacognitive insight.	因此,它表现出了良好的元认知洞察力。
138	The weakest	最虚弱的人
139	performers, on the other hand, were no different in their confidence for the correct and incorrect	另一方面,表演者对正确和不正确的信心并无不同。
140	responses, shown here in the green circle, and so they showed poor metacognitive insight.	反应,在绿色的圆圈里显示, 所以它们表现出了不良的元认知洞察力。
141	So,	这么说
142	what might be going on with these weak performers?	这些弱小的表演者到底怎么了?
143	It could be the case that they have some sense	可能是他们有某种感觉
144	they tend to perform poorly on tests in general, and so they're just less confident overall in	他们一般的考试表现不佳所以他们对
145	their responses.	他们的反应。
146	However, I didn't find that pattern of lower confidence in my data, at least	然而,我并没有发现这种模式对我的数据信心较低,至少
147	with individual decision-making.	个人决策。
148	Instead, it's more likely that they were more confident in	相反,他们更有可能对
149	their correct responses in comparison with their incorrect ones, but this was simply unrelated to	他们的正确反应与其不正确的反应相比较,但这与
150	accuracy on each trial because they had poor insight.	因为他们的洞察力差
151	So, how does this all fit in with the	那么,这些如何与
152	Dunning-Kruger effect?	邓宁 -克鲁格效应?
153	Dunning and Kruger argued that the weakest performers showed the least	邓宁和克鲁格认为表现最差的
154	amount of insight, and they overestimated their performance, and that implied that they had greater	他们高估了自己的表现,这意味着他们拥有更大的
155	confidence.	充满信心。
156	Now, we didn't see that here in our data.	我们的数据里没看到
157	The weakest performers didn't seem to be	表现最差的似乎不是
158	overly confident.	过度自信.
159	However, the Dunning-Kruger effect also describes how insight depends on	然而,邓宁-克鲁格效应也描述了洞察力如何依赖于
160	ability, and so the weakest performers showed the least amount of insight, overestimating their	因此最弱的表演者表现出了最少的洞察力高估了他们的
161	performance in their case.	在他们的情况。
162	As we've just seen, the weakest performers do seem to show the least	我们刚刚看到,最弱的表演者似乎表现得最少
163	amount of insight.	相当的洞察力。
164	Here, they couldn't differentiate between their correct and incorrect responses.	在这里,他们无法区分他们的正确反应和不正确的反应.
165	So, insight does appear to depend on ability, but not in the way that Dunning and Kruger	洞察力似乎取决于能力但与邓宁和克鲁格不同
166	originally thought.	最初以为.
167	So, if there are two things I'd like you to remember from this talk and take	所以,如果有两件事我希望你能记住从这次谈话中,拿
168	home, think about afterwards.	回家后再考虑
169	They are, first, more broadly, science is always updating.	首先,范围更广的是,科学总是不断更新。
170	Research	研究
171	comes along, new evidence that may contradict or even disprove previous work.	新的证据可能与以前的工作相矛盾,甚至相互矛盾。
172	In this case,	在这种情况下,
173	the Dunning-Kruger effect may well not be a thing, despite the fact that it's so prevalent in popular	Dunning-Kruger效应也许不是东西,尽管它是如此流行在流行
174	culture.	文化文化文化文化文化
175	Second, insight depends on ability.	第二,洞察力取决于能力.
176	For the weakest performers, there's no difference	对于最弱的表演者来说,没有区别
177	between their confidence for correct and incorrect responses.	他们对正确和不正确反应的信心。
178	They have poor insight, they can't tell	他们的洞察力差,看不出来
179	the difference.	区别
180	For strong performers, when they're giving a correct answer, they're much	对于强力的表演者来说,当他们给出正确答案时,他们就是很多
181	more confident.	更自信一点
182	Of course, the inverse isn't always true.	当然,反面并不总是真实的.
183	Being more confident doesn't mean	更自信不意味着
184	that you're right.	你说得对
185	You might be wrong and simply have poor insight.	你可能错了,只是缺乏洞察力。
186	So, in our everyday lives,	在我们的日常生活中,
187	you should think about who it is that you ask the opinions of.	你应该考虑一下是谁,你问的意见。
188	If someone is an expert in their	如果有人是专家
189	field, then if they're more confident, they're probably right.	如果它们更自信,它们可能是对的。
190	But if they're unsure, this is	但是如果他们不确定,这是
191	also informative and tells us something useful.	并告诉我们一些有用的东西。
192	It's much more sensible to find someone that we	找到我们要找的人更明智
193	know is knowledgeable in an area rather than someone who is simply confident in their opinion,	知识在某个领域,而不是那些对自己的意见有信心的人,
194	because confidence is easily misplaced.	因为信心很容易错失
195	And finally, for those of you who are still wondering	最后,你们中那些还在想
196	how good my risotto actually is, that may have to wait for a future talk.	可能要等将来再谈
197	Thank you.	谢谢

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