【最稳更新】【BBC新闻播客】20261108（第二期） G
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Is it just me, or is there kind of a feeling of a sort of impending doom in the air lately? | 只是我,还是有种感觉 一种即将来临的末日 最近在空中? |
| 0:06 | The government has advised every citizen to keep emergency supplies of water and long-life food | 政府建议每个公民 保留紧急供水 和长寿食品 |
| 0:11 | to improve the country's resilience in the face of increasing threats. | 提高国家面对日益严重的威胁的复原力。 |
| 0:16 | It's really important that we ask households and businesses, are they prepared? | 我们问家庭和企业是否准备好 这很重要? |
| 0:21 | Are they ready? | 他们准备好了吗? |
| 0:22 | We've got a metal chest, which we keep our non-perishable food in. | 我们有一个金属胸膛, 我们保存我们的不易腐烂的食物。 |
| 0:27 | We've got filing cabinets, which we keep our jars of jams and chutneys. | 我们有备案柜, 我们保留我们的罐子 果酱和果汁。 |
| 0:32 | Is this the end of the world as we know it? | 这就是我们所知道的世界末日吗? |
| 0:35 | And should we all be filling our filing cabinets with | 我们是否应该用 |
| 0:38 | jam in preparation? | 果酱在准备? |
展开字幕全文（458 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Is it just me, or is there kind of a feeling of a sort of impending doom in the air lately? | 只是我,还是有种感觉 一种即将来临的末日 最近在空中? |
| 2 | The government has advised every citizen to keep emergency supplies of water and long-life food | 政府建议每个公民 保留紧急供水 和长寿食品 |
| 3 | to improve the country's resilience in the face of increasing threats. | 提高国家面对日益严重的威胁的复原力。 |
| 4 | It's really important that we ask households and businesses, are they prepared? | 我们问家庭和企业是否准备好 这很重要? |
| 5 | Are they ready? | 他们准备好了吗? |
| 6 | We've got a metal chest, which we keep our non-perishable food in. | 我们有一个金属胸膛, 我们保存我们的不易腐烂的食物。 |
| 7 | We've got filing cabinets, which we keep our jars of jams and chutneys. | 我们有备案柜, 我们保留我们的罐子 果酱和果汁。 |
| 8 | Is this the end of the world as we know it? | 这就是我们所知道的世界末日吗? |
| 9 | And should we all be filling our filing cabinets with | 我们是否应该用 |
| 10 | jam in preparation? | 果酱在准备? |
| 11 | A couple of weeks ago, the UK government launched a national Be Ready campaign, | 几周前,英国政府发起了一场全国性的“准备”运动, |
| 12 | urging people here to keep enough food, water and medicine in their houses to prepare for | 敦促这里的人在家中保留足够的食物、水和药品,以备 |
| 13 | three days of disruption, as well as having torches, power banks and cash at hand in their | 以及手持火炬、电力库和现金 |
| 14 | home. | 回家去 回家来 |
| 15 | This has set off alarm bells for some Americans. | 这为一些美国人敲响了警钟。 |
| 16 | Conservative commentator Glenn Beck | 保守派评论员格伦·贝克 |
| 17 | said the warnings are a sign that Americans should, quote, prepare for impact. | 警告是美国人应该准备撞击的标志 |
| 18 | Europe, they are preparing. | 欧洲,他们正在准备。 |
| 19 | They are telling their people to prepare, have food, water. | 他们要他们的人准备 吃东西 喝水 |
| 20 | But there are some people for whom this isn't news. | 但有些人不是新闻 |
| 21 | It's vindication, and they're preppers, | 这是正经的,他们是先验, |
| 22 | a movement of people whose MO is to gather food and other supplies to protect themselves in a | 行动方式是收集食物和其他物资以保护自己 |
| 23 | possible future disaster. | 未来可能发生的灾难。 |
| 24 | But for many of us in the United Kingdom who only have a couple of tins | 但是对英国的很多人来说 他们只有几罐锡 |
| 25 | of corn or carrots to get us through the apocalypse, this announcement has come as a bit of a shock. | 玉米或胡萝卜可以让我们渡过末日 这个公告有点震惊 |
| 26 | From the BBC, I'm Tristan Redmond in London. | 英国广播公司的 我是伦敦的特里斯坦·雷德蒙 |
| 27 | Today on The Global Story, no matter where you | 今天报道全球故事,不管你在哪里 |
| 28 | are in the world, how worried and how prepared should you be? | 在世界上,有多担心,你应该如何准备? |
| 29 | Picture a giant urn filled with | 想象一个巨大的骨灰盒充满 |
| 30 | balls. | 胆小鬼 |
| 31 | I am humanity reaching into the urn. | 我的人性到达骨灰盒。 |
| 32 | So you've got three types, three colours of balls, | 所以你有三种类型,三种颜色的球, |
| 33 | black balls, grey balls and white balls. | 黑色球,灰色球和白色球. |
| 34 | Each of the balls are an idea, a discovery, an invention. | 每个球都是一个想法,一个发现,一个发明. |
| 35 | This is the disaster planning expert Lucy Easthope, and she's describing something called | 这位是灾难策划专家露西·伊斯特霍普 她在描述一个叫做 |
| 36 | the black ball hypothesis. | 黑球假设。 |
| 37 | It's a way of understanding risk, and it was developed by | 这是一种理解风险的方法, 它是由 |
| 38 | a Swedish philosopher called Nick Bostrom. | 一位瑞典哲学家,名叫尼克·博斯特罗姆. |
| 39 | And I might pull out a white ball which represents | 我可能会拉出一个白色球 代表 |
| 40 | opportunities and creativity. | 机会和创造力。 |
| 41 | I might pull out a grey ball which has positives but also has | 我可能会拔出一个灰色的球 它有阳性,但也有 |
| 42 | significant downsides and harm. | 严重下滑和伤害。 |
| 43 | And what I'm desperately hoping that I won't pull out | 我迫切希望我不会退出 |
| 44 | is a black ball. | 是个黑球 |
| 45 | In the hypothesis, black balls are technologies that would destroy the civilization | 在假设中,黑球是会破坏文明的技术 |
| 46 | that has invented them. | 发明了它们。 |
| 47 | The black balls are the ultimate consequence of all of our technical | 黑球是我们所有技术的最终后果 |
| 48 | inventions and all of our creativity. | 发明和我们的创造力 |
| 49 | Okay, so the black balls, it sounds like they are to be | 好吧,所以黑球, 它听起来像他们是 |
| 50 | avoided at all costs. | 尽量避免。 |
| 51 | But what different types of black balls might be in the bag? | 但袋子里可能装着什么黑球? |
| 52 | What are the | 这是什么 |
| 53 | different threats to civilization that they could represent? | 它们可能对文明造成的不同威胁? |
| 54 | They really are those absolutely | 他们真的是那些绝对的 |
| 55 | catastrophic, apocalyptic events. | 灾难性的,末日的事件。 |
| 56 | So particularly, the focus has been on things like nuclear | 特别是,我们一直关注核子 |
| 57 | or some kind of AI ability to transform a biological weapon. | 或某种AI能力 改造生物武器。 |
| 58 | They are things that would | 这些东西会 |
| 59 | travel around the world and we would have no solution for them. | 环游世界,我们无法解决这些问题。 |
| 60 | Lucy, you are a disaster | 露西,你是灾难 |
| 61 | planner and you think a lot about this sort of thing, these events which might end a civilization. | 策划者和你们想了很多事情, 这些事件可能会结束文明。 |
| 62 | But what is a disaster planner exactly, Lucy? | 但什么是灾难策划者,露西? |
| 63 | What is it that you do? | 你这是干什么? |
| 64 | Emergency and disaster planning around the world is the idea that preparedness, resilience, | 世界各地的应急和灾害规划是备灾、抗御能力、 |
| 65 | readiness can mitigate some of the consequences. | 准备可以减轻一些后果。 |
| 66 | And I also have to be honest with you that with | 我也得跟你说实话 |
| 67 | the black ball risks, there's an oxygen that leaves the room. | 黑球有危险,有氧气离开房间。 |
| 68 | It's very hard to be an emergency | 很难成为紧急情况 |
| 69 | planner for an apocalypse. | 策划一个启示录。 |
| 70 | But emergency planners only work with a reasonable worst-case scenario | 但应急规划人员只在最坏的情况下工作 |
| 71 | and generally with the consequences of the gray ball. | 通常还有灰色球的后果 |
| 72 | So that is the things like major weather, | 这就是主要天气 |
| 73 | major disease. | 重大疾病。 |
| 74 | And then we look at what we could do to mitigate the effects of that on a population. | 然后,我们看看我们可以做些什么 来减轻这对人口的影响。 |
| 75 | Lucy, what would you say right now, sitting as we are in northwest Europe, are the three principle | 露西,你现在会说什么, 我们坐在西北欧洲, 是三项原则 |
| 76 | reasonable worst-case scenarios that we're facing right now? | 合理最坏的情况 我们现在面临? |
| 77 | So the three most likely things at the moment are something around food shocks, | 所以目前最有可能的三件事 是围绕食物冲击, |
| 78 | so food security and food issues, something that would cause us issues with power and also | 因此,粮食安全和粮食问题, 的东西会给我们带来问题 用权力,并且 |
| 79 | potentially issues with things like data. | 可能跟数据有关 |
| 80 | That could be a malevolent threat or it could be weather. | 这可能是恶意的威胁,也可能是天气。 |
| 81 | And probably for here in the UK where I am, our greatest risk and we very much share this | 也许是因为我身处英国 我们最大的风险 |
| 82 | with many parts of northern Europe is around flooding. | 北欧很多地区都在洪水中 |
| 83 | And what about in the United States | 在美国呢? |
| 84 | where many of our listeners are? | 我们的听众在哪里? |
| 85 | So the United States has ongoing weather | 所以美国有持续天气 |
| 86 | challenges. | 挑战。 |
| 87 | And we're all watching with bated breath as to what things like El Nino will do. | 我们都在喘着气看着 埃尔尼诺会怎么做 |
| 88 | There's some interesting and difficult weather suggested. | 有一些有趣的和困难的天气建议. |
| 89 | There is also, I think, a specific | 我认为,还有一个具体的 |
| 90 | asymmetric threat to countries like the US and the UK, which means that they can be vulnerable to | 对美国和英国等国家的非对称威胁,这意味着它们可能易受到 |
| 91 | things like cyber attacks. | 比如网络攻击 |
| 92 | And so I think one of the things that we are seeing is a wider understanding | 所以我认为我们所看到的一件事 是更广泛的理解 |
| 93 | that countries like the US and UK are as vulnerable as anywhere else has been. | 像美国和英国这样的国家 和其他地方一样脆弱 |
| 94 | We will see repeated | 我们会看到重复的 |
| 95 | cyber attacks we expect. | 我们期待网络攻击 |
| 96 | And we will see one of the big red alarm lights going on. | 我们将看到一个巨大的红色警报灯亮着。 |
| 97 | It's still | 还是这样 |
| 98 | only a grey ball. | 只是一个灰色球。 |
| 99 | It's theoretically manageable. | 理论上可以管理. |
| 100 | It's around the management of disease. | 围绕治病. |
| 101 | And several | 还有几个 |
| 102 | leading voices around the world have suggested that the US could be very vulnerable to an epidemic. | 全世界的主要声音都表明,美国可能非常容易受到流行病的影响。 |
| 103 | Well, there are some European countries that are more ready than others. | 有一些欧洲国家比其他国家更准备。 |
| 104 | I'm thinking, for example, | 我想,比如说, |
| 105 | the Scandinavian countries, the Finns in particular, who have a long-term high state of | 斯堪的纳维亚国家,特别是芬兰人,长期处于高水平 |
| 106 | readiness. | 准备 |
| 107 | The UK has been quite late to the party. | 英国来晚了 |
| 108 | They issued some new advice to citizens in the | 他们向公民提供了一些新的建议。 |
| 109 | last couple of weeks. | 两周前 |
| 110 | But what is it exactly that they're advising people in Britain to do and why | 但是他们建议英国人做什么 以及为什么 |
| 111 | now? | 现在? |
| 112 | As emergency planners, we were hoping that this guidance came out a lot earlier. | 作为应急规划者,我们曾希望这一指导能早些出台. |
| 113 | And certainly | 当然 |
| 114 | American listeners will know that it's been a staple in US citizen preparedness for years. | 美国听众会知道,它多年来一直是美国公民准备的主食. |
| 115 | The UK have had various iterations of when we thought it would go out. | 英国有不同的迭代 我们以为它会出去。 |
| 116 | And this week we got | 这个星期我们得到了 |
| 117 | the Be Ready announcement. | 准备宣布 |
| 118 | And what that asks of its citizens is to think a little bit more, | 要求公民多思考一点 |
| 119 | to start a conversation. | 要开始谈话。 |
| 120 | In true British style, it was both have a conversation but don't worry. | 在真正的英国风格,它都有一个谈话,但不用担心。 |
| 121 | And the practical things were things like some water at home, some non-perishable food. | 实际的事情是像一些水 在家里,一些不易腐烂的食物。 |
| 122 | Three litres of water per person per day, tin goods in the cupboard to last you a few days. | 每人每天三升水,柜子里有锡货,可以维持几天. |
| 123 | If you've got babies, things like your baby food and nappy supplies, pets, pet food, water. | 如果你有孩子, 东西喜欢你的婴儿食物 和恶心的供给, 宠物,宠物食物,水。 |
| 124 | And then things like torches that are battery powered, mobile phone charging packs. | 然后是电动火炬 手机充电包 |
| 125 | Do you have | 你有没有 |
| 126 | enough cash indoors if the local payment systems were down? | 如果当地支付系统失灵 室内就有足够的现金? |
| 127 | Those sorts of things. | 那种东西 |
| 128 | We have seen the sales of torches and wind up radios rocket. | 我们看到了火炬的销售和射电火箭的报废。 |
| 129 | Order after order after order. | 后序经. |
| 130 | We are seeing a lot of people buying freeze-dried food. | 我们看到很多人购买冷冻干粮。 |
| 131 | It's gone absolutely mental really. | 绝对是精神错乱 |
| 132 | Everything about off-grid seems to be the key of what people are buying. | 离网的一切都是人们买东西的关键 |
| 133 | I've had a lot of | 我有过很多 |
| 134 | cry-sponsor international colleagues that this was all a bit amusing to them because they've been | 说这对他们来说有点有趣 因为他们一直 |
| 135 | doing it for years. | 做这几年。 |
| 136 | I am feeling very late to the party as a UK planner. | 作为英国的策划者,我对派对感到很晚 |
| 137 | Internationally, | 在国际上, |
| 138 | this is something done very routinely. | 这是很平常的事 |
| 139 | Well, why is the UK just being kind of nudged into | 那么,为什么英国只是 那种被推入 |
| 140 | doing this right now? | 现在这样做? |
| 141 | Is there a particular event? | 有特别的事件吗? |
| 142 | No, there isn't. | 没有 |
| 143 | Basically, we've reached a point | 基本上,我们已经到了一点 |
| 144 | where the UK government was looking dangerously behind and some of our commentators were describing | 英国政府正以危险的后瞻 部分评论家在描述 |
| 145 | us as dangerously negligent. | 我们都是危险的疏忽 |
| 146 | However, it is understandable that we just couldn't get away | 但是,这是可以理解的 我们只是无法逃脱 |
| 147 | without having it anymore because there are increasing tensions and also we're seeing a | 不再有它了,因为 紧张局势在加剧 而且我们看到 |
| 148 | feedback loop. | 反馈循环。 |
| 149 | So when we see residents and families flooded or we've had a very serious | 所以,当我们看到居民和家庭被淹没, 或者我们已经有一个非常严重的 |
| 150 | series of wildfires, we are seeing some of this readiness advice make a difference. | 一系列野火,我们正看到一些这种准备性的建议有所作为。 |
| 151 | So to not issue it as a central government, we're starting to look very, very poor indeed. | 所以,不作为中央政府发布, 我们开始看起来非常,非常贫穷。 |
| 152 | Well, you know, a few bottles of water, some tins of food, a wind-up radio, is any of this | 嗯,你知道,几瓶水,一些锡 食物,一个收音机,这是任何 |
| 153 | adequate enough given the threats that you're describing, Lucy? | 足够吗? 露西? |
| 154 | I think that's what's the tricky thing. | 我想这就是最棘手的事 |
| 155 | It means that the meetings that I attend, | 这意味着我参加的会议, |
| 156 | where they are somewhere between the grey and the black ball, those meetings I find very difficult. | 在灰色和黑色的球之间 那些会议我感到非常困难 |
| 157 | But if they are a scenario like a food shock or a power outage, yes, I do see a difference. | 但是,如果它们是像 食物休克或停电的情况, 是的,我确实看到一个不同。 |
| 158 | And again, we have this evidence base from around the world. | 再说一遍,我们有来自世界各地的证据库。 |
| 159 | So it's a very common practice in | 所以这是很常见的做法 |
| 160 | states in America that are affected by tornadoes and hurricanes to have a hurricane cupboard. | 美国受龙卷风和飓风影响的州有飓风橱柜。 |
| 161 | We're one week into the big announcement here in the UK and it's landed really well. | 我们进入了英国的大公告的一周,它降落得很好。 |
| 162 | And I | 还有我 |
| 163 | think that's because it does just make good sense. | 因为它确实有道理。 |
| 164 | What does landing really well look like in your | 着陆在你的身上看起来真像什么? |
| 165 | business? | 生意吗? |
| 166 | Well, it differs country by country. | 国与国不同 |
| 167 | And I think in Britain, it lands, you know, | 我想在英国, 它着陆,你知道, |
| 168 | we've been through a sort of a series of stages. | 我们经历了一系列阶段 |
| 169 | We've done satire. | 我们已经做了讽刺。 |
| 170 | It's been parodied. | 它已经被麻痹了。 |
| 171 | So I thought I would talk you through what essential items I'll be stockpiling in case | 所以我想跟你谈谈 我储存什么重要物品以防万一 |
| 172 | you need any inspo. | 你需要任何内幕。 |
| 173 | So I've got 20 bottles of pomegranate molasses. | 所以我有20瓶石榴糖浆 |
| 174 | Otolingi got me onto | 奥托林吉让我找到了 |
| 175 | the stuff and I honestly cannot go a day without it. | 那些东西,我真不能没有它一天。 |
| 176 | It's been written about. | 所著经论. |
| 177 | And then eventually | 最终 |
| 178 | people have gone, oh, all right, I've done it. | 人们走了,哦,好吧,我做到了。 |
| 179 | But this is guidance for individuals to make plans. | 但这是个人制定计划的指导。 |
| 180 | But shouldn't this stuff be also happening primarily at a government level? | 但是这些事情不应该主要发生在政府层面吗? |
| 181 | I mean, | 我是说... |
| 182 | things like food security, these are huge questions that aren't going to be solved with | 食品安全之类的大问题 是无法解决的 |
| 183 | a few tins of baked beans. | 几罐烧豆子 |
| 184 | No. | 没有 |
| 185 | So this is a very much what we call an operational aspect of emergency | 所以这是我们所说的紧急情况的一个操作方面 |
| 186 | response. | 反应。 |
| 187 | Allowing people to have 72 hours of stocks and of light means that at local | 允许人们拥有72小时的库存和光线,意味着在当地 |
| 188 | government level, where very similar to many other countries, we have a lot of our emergency | 政府层面,与许多其他国家非常相似,我们有许多紧急情况 |
| 189 | response vested. | 答复。 |
| 190 | It gives people time as emergency responders to work out who needs our help and how | 它为人们提供了时间,作为应急人员 找出谁需要我们的帮助和如何 |
| 191 | to get to them. | 找到他们。 |
| 192 | What's often forgotten in this discussion, just like countries around the world, | 在这场讨论中经常被遗忘的东西 就像世界各国一样 |
| 193 | the principle copied by all nations really is the idea of subsidiarity. | 所有国家所抄袭的原则实际上是辅助思想。 |
| 194 | So the best emergency | 所以,最好的紧急情况 |
| 195 | response is done by funding parish councils and councils. | 答复由教区理事会提供资金。 |
| 196 | We've called on ministers here for more | 我们找来了更多部长 |
| 197 | detailed support on that. | 详细支持这一点。 |
| 198 | And it's very interesting to see our American colleagues doing something | 看到我们的美国同事在做一些事情 很有趣 |
| 199 | similar. | 类似。 |
| 200 | American Emergency Management is going through a similar process. | 美国应急管理正经历类似的过程. |
| 201 | And there are concerns | 还有问题 |
| 202 | about the roles of things like the Federal Emergency Management Agency. | 关于诸如联邦紧急事务管理局之类的角色 |
| 203 | I'm looking a lot | 我看着很多 |
| 204 | at food security at the moment. | 现在的食品安全。 |
| 205 | It's definitely a gray ball in my own. | 这绝对是我的灰色球。 |
| 206 | One of the things I've really | 有一件事我确实 |
| 207 | highlighted is that food supply chains are intellectual property owned by the companies. | 突出的一点是,食品供应链是公司所拥有的知识产权。 |
| 208 | And so it's been quite hard to get a true picture, I think, of our food security in the UK. | 因此,我们很难真正了解 英国的粮食安全状况。 |
| 209 | That's really interesting what you're saying about food supply chains being | 这真的很有趣 你说的食品供应链 |
| 210 | intellectual property. | 知识产权。 |
| 211 | So you mean supermarkets know what our food supply chain is, but governments | 所以你的意思是超市知道我们的食物供应链 但政府 |
| 212 | don't? | 是吗? |
| 213 | Yeah, I find that really interesting, but not a surprise. | 是啊,我觉得这真的很有趣, 但不是一个惊喜。 |
| 214 | I've been here before, | 我以前来过这里 |
| 215 | and I've walked this path with things like how good is our pandemic planning? | 我走过这条路,就像我们的大流行计划有多好? |
| 216 | A lot of things like our | 像我们一样的东西 |
| 217 | equipment procurement and our medicines are also highly commercialized private sector data. | 设备采购和我们的药品也是高度商业化的私营部门数据。 |
| 218 | Well, Lucy, in a few moments, we're going to be speaking with our BBC colleague, | 露西,几分钟后,我们要和英国广播公司的同事谈谈 |
| 219 | Gabriel Gatehouse, who spent some time with so-called preppers, who are people who are | Gabriel Gatehouse, 和所谓的前辈们度过了一段时间, 他们是人谁是 |
| 220 | way ahead of the curve on any of all of this. | 在任何这一切的曲线前行。 |
| 221 | They've been preparing for black ball events, | 他们一直在准备黑球赛事 |
| 222 | as you described them, for years in some cases. | 正如你所描述的, 几年来在某些情况下。 |
| 223 | But if governments are now telling us all to stock | 但是如果政府现在要我们全数库存 |
| 224 | up on things, does that mean we're all preppers, essentially? | 说到事情,这是否意味着我们都是前辈? |
| 225 | I think we're mini preppers. | 我觉得我们是小预赛。 |
| 226 | I think | 我觉得 |
| 227 | there's been a real confusion around, you know, my algorithm today is full of kind of survival kits. | 今天的算法里 充满了生存工具 |
| 228 | There was an advent calendar with knives and rope in it and wires. | 当时有一个冒险日历,里面有刀,绳子和电线. |
| 229 | I would be useless in that | 那样我就没用了 |
| 230 | scenario. | 假设 |
| 231 | The Think 72, the 72 hours of readiness is a very specific emergency management response, | 72小时准备就绪 是一种非常具体的应急反应 |
| 232 | but certainly we aren't that kind of apocalyptic prepper. | 但我们当然不是那种末日前辈 |
| 233 | The big criticism sometimes of prepping | 有时对准备的批评 |
| 234 | is it's quite selfish sometimes. | 有时候很自私 |
| 235 | It's the idea that you would emerge into civilization | 这就是你进入文明的想法 |
| 236 | lost and be the last person standing. | 失去,成为最后一个站立的人。 |
| 237 | And that holds no appeal to me. | 这对我没有任何吸引力。 |
| 238 | I look at it from a slightly | 我从略微看出来 |
| 239 | different view that the best food eaten in crisis is shared with neighbors who didn't have any | 不同观点认为,在危机中吃得最好的食物是和没有食物的邻居分享. |
| 240 | by torchlight. | 由火炬照亮。 |
| 241 | And that's sort of where my head's at. | 这也是我脑袋里的东西 |
| 242 | Lucy, it's been a real pleasure talking with | 露西,我很高兴能和你谈谈 |
| 243 | you. | 你们 |
| 244 | Thank you for having me. | 谢谢你邀请我 |
| 245 | It's those apocalyptic black ball scenarios that many | 是那些末日般的黑球场景 |
| 246 | have been getting ready for. | 已经准备好了 |
| 247 | Our BBC colleague Gabriel Gatehouse has long followed the subculture | 我们的英国广播公司同事Gabriel Gatehouse 长期以来一直关注亚文化 |
| 248 | of preppers, both in the UK and in the United States. | 在英国和美国都有 |
| 249 | Gabriel, it's so good to have you with | 加布里埃尔,有你来真好 |
| 250 | us. | 我们 |
| 251 | Could you introduce yourself, please, for listeners who don't already know you? | 你能自我介绍一下吗 给那些不认识你的听众介绍一下 |
| 252 | Well, I'm very pleased to be on this podcast, Tristan. | 嗯,我很高兴 成为播客,特里斯坦。 |
| 253 | My name is Gabriel Gatehouse. | 我叫加布里埃尔·盖特豪斯 |
| 254 | I suppose | 应该是吧 |
| 255 | listeners might know me because I did a series called The Coming Storm, which, as the title | 听众可能认识我,因为我做了一个系列 叫做"即将来临的风暴", 作为标题 |
| 256 | suggests, includes in it a sort of sense of impending doom, kind of an idea of political | 暗示,在其中包含一种 即将来临的感觉, 一种政治思想 |
| 257 | and societal collapse. | 社会崩溃。 |
| 258 | What is a prepper for you, Gabriel? | 贾伯利,你有什么前科? |
| 259 | I mean, I think the word prepper | 我的意思是,我认为这个词的预选 |
| 260 | sort of presupposes a healthy dollop of paranoia, at least it used to until, as we just heard, | 某种前提 健康娃娃 偏执, 至少它过去,直到, |
| 261 | governments around the world started saying, no, this is perfectly normal and sensible. | 世界各地的政府开始说,不,这是完全正常和明智的。 |
| 262 | Please | 请 |
| 263 | look at the Hollywood idea of the prepper in American culture. | 看看好莱坞对美国文化前身的看法 |
| 264 | I mean, I think modern prepping | 我的意思是,我觉得现代准备 |
| 265 | really starts in the 1950s, in the post-war era, fears about a nuclear apocalypse. | 真正开始于1950年代, 战后时代, 对核末日的恐惧。 |
| 266 | Let us face without panic the reality of our times, the fact that atom bombs may someday be | 让我们毫不惊慌地面对我们时代的现实,即原子炸弹可能有一天是 |
| 267 | dropped on our cities. | 我们的城市。 |
| 268 | And people were building shelters in their gardens, especially in America, | 人们在花园里建造避难所 尤其是美国 |
| 269 | where, of course, there's much more space. | 当然,还有更多的空间 |
| 270 | An attack could come without warning. | 袭击可能会在没有警告的情况下发生。 |
| 271 | The sky would suddenly light up. | 天空突然闪亮 |
| 272 | If a doorway is right at hand, use it. | 若门道正即用. |
| 273 | If the nearest shelter is | 如果最近的避难所是 |
| 274 | more than a couple of steps away, fall to the ground immediately. | 超过两步之遥,立即倒在地上。 |
| 275 | So the whole prepper movement | 所以整个前期运动 |
| 276 | has been driven by American culture, a culture of rugged individualism, a strain of libertarianism, | 由美国文化驱动, 一种崎岖的个人主义文化, 一个自由主义的压力, |
| 277 | a sense of self-reliance, going out there, not being reliant on the government, suspicion of | 一种自力更生的感觉,去那里, 不依赖政府,怀疑 |
| 278 | the government. | 国家 |
| 279 | You know, all of this kind of plays into the sort of prepper mindset. | 你知道,所有这种剧情 进入一种前期的心态。 |
| 280 | Well, if the Cold War is an establishing moment for prepping, it's not just individuals, though, | 好吧,如果冷战是一个建立的时刻 准备,它不只是个人,虽然, |
| 281 | who are doing it, but there's also governments who are making bunkers for their officials, | 但也有政府 为其官员制造掩体 |
| 282 | who are going to retire there in the moment of a nuclear attack, right? | 谁会在核攻击时退休? |
| 283 | Right. | 对 |
| 284 | And so that stuff, I think, reached its peak in the 1950s. | 所以,我认为,这些东西在20世纪50年代达到了顶峰。 |
| 285 | That then sort of dies away | 那样就会死 |
| 286 | as we get towards the end of the Cold War and morphs into this much more individualistic, | 随着冷战即将结束 并演变成个人主义 |
| 287 | individual against the world, individual against governments, kind of militia-adjacent style of | 个人反对世界,个人反对政府, 那种民兵-邻接的风格 |
| 288 | prepping. | 准备 |
| 289 | In the 2020s, this has pivoted to Silicon Valley, right? | 20世纪20年代,这里是硅谷,对吧? |
| 290 | So what we see now, | 所以,我们现在看到的, |
| 291 | we see these big tech CEOs, people like Mark Zuckerberg, people like Ilya Sutskever of OpenAI | 我们看到这些大科技CEO, 像马克·扎克伯格, 像伊利亚·苏茨克韦尔, OpenAI |
| 292 | 在Zuckerberg案中 他不叫他们掩体 | |
| 293 | he calls it a little basement, but it's effectively 5,000 square feet of basement in Hawaii, | 他称之为一个小地下室, 但实际上它是5000平方英尺的地下室 在夏威夷, |
| 294 | and another large, large basement under a series of properties in Palo Alto. | 还有另一个大型地下室 在帕洛阿尔托的一系列地产下 |
| 295 | 和Ilya Sutskever的OpenAI, 他被报道 在一本新书, 已经使用和思考 | |
| 296 | what should this company do in the event of it releasing a super powerful AI that might, | 如果公司释放出一个超强的AI 可能会... |
| 297 | I don't know, go out and try and kill us all. | 我不知道,出去杀我们 |
| 298 | Well, maybe the company should build itself | 也许公司应该自行兴建 |
| 299 | a bunker for its top scientists so they can survive the creation that they are making. | 这是它顶尖科学家的堡垒 这样他们就能在创造中生存下来 |
| 300 | So he's not worried just about his own survival, he's worried about his corporation's survival. | 所以他不只是担心自己的生存,还担心他的公司的生存. |
| 301 | I mean, they're worried about the survival of humanity, but what they are prepping for, | 我的意思是,他们担心 人类的生存,但他们正在准备什么, |
| 302 | planning for, if these accounts are indeed accurate, is yes, that the survival of themselves, | 计划,如果这些说法确实准确的话,是的,即他们的生存, |
| 303 | the company's top CEOs, the company's top scientists. | 公司顶级首席执行官 公司顶级科学家 |
| 304 | And this book that I came across | 我发现的这本书 |
| 305 | while doing reporting for the coming storm, so The Sovereign Individual, it's written in the | 在报道即将到来的风暴的同时, 《君主个人》写在 |
| 306 | mid-90s, late 90s, 97 it's published, and it is an incredibly prescient book, | 90年代中期,90年代末,97 出版, 这是一本令人难以置信的预科书, |
| 307 | and it's become like a sort of handbook, a Bible for some in Silicon Valley. | 这就像一本手册, 一本圣经,一些在硅谷。 |
| 308 | So this book talks | 所以这本书谈 |
| 309 | about how digital technology is going to fundamentally change the world. | 数字技术如何从根本上改变世界。 |
| 310 | So they predict | 所以他们预测 |
| 311 | all of this disruption that digital technology will make, predicting this in the 1990s, | 数字技术带来的这些干扰 预测到1990年代, |
| 312 | it's uncannily prescient, and really some of the biggest names in Silicon Valley have taken this | 这实在是太古老了 硅谷的一些大名字 都取了这个 |
| 313 | book and treated it, I would say, not as a warning for the future, but as a kind of handbook for how | 我想说,这本书不是对未来的警告,而是作为一本手册 |
| 314 | to profit from and prosper in the coming disorder. | 在即将到来的混乱中从中获利和繁荣。 |
| 315 | So it's a kind of higher order of prepping, | 所以,这是一种更高的顺序 准备, |
| 316 | we're not talking about 50 cans of beans in your little basement, this is a whole other level. | 我们不是在谈论50罐豆子 在你的小地下室, 这是另一个层次。 |
| 317 | So that's one of the things that kind of goes around in the popular imagination. | 所以,这就是人们想象中的一种东西。 |
| 318 | But yeah, | 不过是的 |
| 319 | you know, these guys, I think, are also aware of the fact that even though they | 你知道,这些家伙,我想, 也意识到的事实,即使他们 |
| 320 | live the life of sort of human demigods, they are in fact human beings, like you and me, | 过着某种人类的异性恋生活 他们实际上是人类 就像你和我一样 |
| 321 | and are subject to the same vagaries of climate change, disaster, war, societal breakdown, | 遭受同样多变的气候变化、灾难、战争、社会崩溃, |
| 322 | and they are in fact quite worried about this stuff. | 他们其实很担心这些东西 |
| 323 | When reporting for The Coming Storm, | 当报告即将到来的风暴时, |
| 324 | I spoke to this guy called Douglas Rushkoff, who's a sort of, I'd describe him as a sort of tech | 我和一个叫道格拉斯·拉什克夫的人谈过了 他算是个技术专家 |
| 325 | savant, really. | 草原,其实。 |
| 326 | He's a thinker in that field of tech, and he described this situation where he was | 他是技术领域的思想家 他描述了他当时所处的状况 |
| 327 | invited by a small group of very wealthy men, whom he didn't name, but sort of Silicon Valley | 被一群非常富有的人邀请, 他没有点名,而是某种硅谷 |
| 328 | billionaire types. | 亿万富翁的类型。 |
| 329 | He was invited out for a sort of private consultation, and he's kind of met | 他被邀请出去 私人咨询, 他有点相遇 |
| 330 | at the airport with a limo whisked off to this place where these guys are waiting for him. | 在机场,一辆豪华轿车 刮去这个地方 他们在那里等待他。 |
| 331 | And they start off the conversation with like, you know, okay, well, what cryptocurrency should | 他们从谈话开始 就像,你知道,好吧, 那么,什么密码货币应该 |
| 332 | I use? | 我用吗? |
| 333 | You know, is it Bitcoin or Ethereum? | 是比特币还是伊特鲁姆? |
| 334 | You know, should we be looking at virtual reality | 你知道,我们应该看看虚拟现实 |
| 335 | or augmented reality? | 还是增加现实? |
| 336 | But he realizes at some point that they're just sort of nibbling around | 但他意识到, 在某些时候,他们只是 有点零散地转动 |
| 337 | the edges. | 边缘。 |
| 338 | And the question they really want answering is, what do I do in the case of societal | 而他们真正想要回答的问题是, 我该怎么办 对于社会 |
| 339 | breakdown? | 崩溃? |
| 340 | How do I maintain authority over the people that I have employed to guard myself, | 我如何保持权威 对于我雇来保护自己的人, |
| 341 | to guard me, to keep me safe? | 保护我,保护我的安全? |
| 342 | How do I stop them from turning on me, right? | 我该如何阻止他们背叛我? |
| 343 | And he said that they | 他说他们 |
| 344 | spent kind of a good hour discussing this. | 花了很长的时间讨论这个 |
| 345 | You know, some of them had hired ex-Navy SEALs to | 你知道,他们中有些人 雇用前海军海豹突击队 |
| 346 | look after them. | 照顾他们。 |
| 347 | Should they be thinking about robots? | 他们应该想到机器人吗? |
| 348 | What should they do when their crypto is | 当他们的密码是 |
| 349 | worthless and they can't pay them anymore? | 没用,他们又付不起? |
| 350 | So, you know, the sense that you get is that perhaps | 所以,你知道,你得到的感觉是,也许 |
| 351 | the higher up the food chain you get, the more this question weighs upon people and the more kind | 食物链上越高 这个问题就越重 人和人 |
| 352 | of existential dread and angst they're living with. | 生存的恐惧和愤怒 他们的生活。 |
| 353 | Well, good luck to the demigods. | 祝神明们好运 |
| 354 | What about | 怎么样 |
| 355 | the every man and every woman prepper? | 每一个男人和每个女人 预选? |
| 356 | What are they doing to actually prepare for the coming | 他们在做什么 真正准备来 |
| 357 | storm, Gabriel? | 暴风雨,加布里埃尔? |
| 358 | So I present this other podcast on the BBC called Radical, a weekly show where we | 所以我在BBC上介绍另一个播客 叫做"激进",一个每周节目,我们在那里 |
| 359 | interview people who have radical ideas or otherwise living a radical life. | 采访那些有激进想法或过着激进生活的人。 |
| 360 | And I interviewed this | 我采访了这个 |
| 361 | British prepper, a guy called Mike Chappell, about what he's been doing for quite a few years now. | 一个叫麦克·查普尔的英国预科生 他已经做了好几年了 |
| 362 | Just in my prepping pantry, in canned foods alone, I've got 109 days for the entire family, | 就在我准备的储藏室里 单靠罐头食品 我全家有109天的时间 |
| 363 | based on calories per person per day. | 根据每人每天的热量计算。 |
| 364 | It's an under stairs cupboard. | 这是楼梯下的橱柜 |
| 365 | It's both walls filled with | 墙上都是 |
| 366 | cans on shelves. | 在货架上。 |
| 367 | What are we talking, like 100 cans, 200 cans? | 我们在说什么,像100罐,200罐? |
| 368 | At least 200. | 至少200个 |
| 369 | And what kind of stuff | 什么样的东西 |
| 370 | have you got in there? | 你进去了吗? |
| 371 | Everything I eat. | 我所食一切众生. |
| 372 | What do you eat? | 你们吃什么? |
| 373 | Sausage and beans, macaroni and cheese, | 香肠和豆子 通心粉和奶酪 |
| 374 | I'm a sucker for a Heinz can. | 我是海因茨罐头的笨蛋 |
| 375 | Spam is the classic prepper one. | 垃圾邮件是典型的预赛 |
| 376 | So I've got tiers of preps, right? | 所以我有预科,对不对? |
| 377 | We've got first tier is canned foods and pastas and things like that. | 我们有第一层是罐头食品 和面条之类的东西 |
| 378 | Then the next tier is kind | 下一层是善良的 |
| 379 | of the MREs, which are meals ready to eat, which are what the military use, military rations, | 军需品 军需品 |
| 380 | and it's them because they're easy, high density calories and if I had to get out, | 这是因为他们是容易的,高密度的卡路里 如果我不得不离开, |
| 381 | move, anything like that, they're much more transportable. | 移动,任何类似的东西, 他们更可运输。 |
| 382 | And then the third tier is | 第三层是 |
| 383 | he has got a network of like minded friends, fellow preppers that he can call on in cases | 他有一个网络 像有头脑的朋友, 伙伴的预选,他可以调用 在案件 |
| 384 | of emergency. | 紧急情况。 |
| 385 | So again, this is a very kind of libertarian with a small L but kind of individual | 再说一次,这是一种非常自由主义者 与一个小L,但类型个人 |
| 386 | against the world kind of view of what happens when stuff starts breaking down. | 与世界观相反 当事物开始崩溃时会发生什么 |
| 387 | If the food run | 如果食物开花 |
| 388 | in a place like London, Manchester, Birmingham, so an urban area becomes a lot of people that are | 在伦敦、曼彻斯特、伯明翰等地 所以一个城市地区 变成了很多人 |
| 389 | desperate. | 绝望 |
| 390 | And I'd love deep down to think inside if something happened, we'd have the blitz spirit, | 我希望内心深处能想一想 如果有什么事情发生 我们就会有闪电灵 |
| 391 | we'd all come together, we'd look after each other. | 我们一起来,互相照顾 |
| 392 | And you would find that in places, | 你会发现的地方, |
| 393 | but you'd also have people that are desperate. | 但你也会有绝望的人 |
| 394 | I've heard from another BBC colleague that when | 我从另一个英国广播公司的同事那里听说 |
| 395 | they were interviewing preppers, those preppers were very reluctant to actually show or give up | 他们正在采访预选赛, 那些预选赛非常不愿意 实际显示或放弃 |
| 396 | any details of what they were stocking, where they were keeping it, all that kind of thing, | 任何细节 他们正在丝袜, 他们在那里保存它, 所有这些事情, |
| 397 | in case they were then looted in an emergency. | 以防他们在紧急情况下遭到抢劫。 |
| 398 | Is that kind of secrecy and suspicion baked into | 是那种秘密和怀疑 被烧成 |
| 399 | the whole prepper mindset? | 整个前期的心态? |
| 400 | Yeah, I think Mike Chappell was a bit reluctant to give too much | 是啊,我觉得迈克·查普尔 有点不愿意付出太多 |
| 401 | detail. | 细节。 |
| 402 | I mean, he did tell me what was in the cupboard under his stairs. | 我的意思是,他确实告诉我 在他的楼梯下的橱柜里是什么。 |
| 403 | But when I asked him | 但当我问他 |
| 404 | whether he had stashes elsewhere outside of the home that he could call on, he was a little cagey. | 不管他是否在别的地方藏了些东西 他都可以打给别人 他都有点紧张 |
| 405 | And yeah, I think that really is part of the prepper mindset, is that when things start | 是的,我认为这真的是 部分前期思维, 是当事情开始 |
| 406 | kicking off, you're kind of on your own. | 踢开,你有点自己。 |
| 407 | You are your own first responder. | 你是你自己的第一反应者 |
| 408 | Nobody's coming | 没有人会来 |
| 409 | to save you. | 为了救你 |
| 410 | You think about what it would take to restart a grid. | 你想想重启电网需要什么 |
| 411 | And also now factor in, | 而现在的因素, |
| 412 | after three days, there'd be no cell service. | 三天后,没有手机服务。 |
| 413 | And you're also relying on all of them wonderful | 你也是靠着他们 |
| 414 | emergency services and employees that do a great service, hats off to them. | 紧急服务 和雇员做一个伟大的服务, 帽子给他们。 |
| 415 | You've got to rely on them not wanting to just be at home and look after their own family. | 你必须依赖他们 不想只在家里照顾自己的家人 |
| 416 | If governments, Gabriel, are advising people to do this now, does that mean the preppers | 如果政府Gabriel建议人们现在就这么做 那是否意味着预选赛 |
| 417 | have been vindicated? | 被证实了吗? |
| 418 | Is that how they feel? | 他们有这种感觉吗? |
| 419 | I think so. | 我想是这样。 |
| 420 | Yeah, I think they do feel vindicated. | 是的,我想他们确实觉得有道理 |
| 421 | I know from speaking to some of them that they feel like the government is not going far enough. | 我从和他们中的一些人交谈中了解到,他们觉得政府做得还不够。 |
| 422 | Mike Chappell said three days is not going to see you very far. | 迈克·查普尔说三天不会见到你 |
| 423 | I just think they need to pull the finger out and say, two weeks worth of supplies, | 我只是觉得他们需要抽出手指 说,两个星期的补给, |
| 424 | there's no need to panic, do it at some point just in case that will cover you for all scenarios. | 没必要惊慌失措 在某个时候做 以防万一你被掩盖 |
| 425 | There are other kind of more critical ways that people look at this government advice, | 还有其他更关键的方法 人们看 政府的建议, |
| 426 | which I've heard that it's sort of softening up the ground for admitting that actually governments | 我听说,它有点软化 地面承认,实际上政府 |
| 427 | have failed to adequately grasp the nettle of climate change, that stuff is going to get bad | 无法充分把握气候变化的底线, |
| 428 | and you're going to be on your own a bit. | 你会是你自己的一点点。 |
| 429 | Gabriel, thank you so much for joining us. | 加布里埃尔 非常感谢你加入我们 |
| 430 | It's been a | 这是个 |
| 431 | total pleasure. | 非常荣幸 |
| 432 | It's been fun. | 这很有趣。 |
| 433 | Please come back. | 请回来。 |
| 434 | I will. | 我会的。 |
| 435 | That was the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse and | 那是BBC的加布里埃尔·盖特豪斯和 |
| 436 | before that we heard from Professor Lucy Easthope. | 之前我们听到露西·伊斯特霍普教授的消息 |
| 437 | As always, if you have any story ideas or questions | 一如既往,如果你有任何故事的想法或问题 |
| 438 | for us, you can get in touch anytime by emailing us and we really do check the messages. | 对我们来说,你可以随时通过电子邮件联系我们 我们确实检查了消息。 |
| 439 | We love | 我们爱 |
| 440 | hearing from all of our listeners. | 听到我们所有听众的声音 |
| 441 | 我们的地址是Globalstoryatbbc.com. (中文(简体) ). | |
| 442 | And a reminder that as | 和提醒,作为 |
| 443 | all of you loyal listeners know, here on The Global Story, we dive deep every day on one big story | 你们这些忠实的听众都知道, 在《全球故事》上, 我们每天都在深度地潜入一个大故事 |
| 444 | where the world and America meet. | 世界和美国相遇的地方 |
| 445 | If you're also looking for a way to catch up on the very latest | 如果你还在寻找一个方法 赶上最新的 |
| 446 | news headlines, then we recommend checking out our sister show, The Global News Podcast. | 新闻头条,然后我们建议 看看我们的姊妹节目, 全球新闻播报。 |
| 447 | The episode today was produced by Josephine Cassoli and Sandra Ellen. | 今天的剧集由约瑟芬·卡索利和桑德拉·埃伦制作. |
| 448 | It was mixed by Travis | 是崔维斯搞的鬼 |
| 449 | Evans. | 埃文丝 |
| 450 | Our digital producer was Sam Gruay. | 我们的数字制作人是萨姆·格鲁伊。 |
| 451 | Our studio engineer was David Evans. | 我们的工作室工程师是大卫·埃文斯 |
| 452 | Our senior news | 我们的高级新闻 |
| 453 | editor is China Collins. | 编辑是中国柯林斯。 |
| 454 | And I'm Tristan Redmond. | 我是特里斯坦・雷德蒙 |
| 455 | Thanks as always for spending some time with us. | 谢谢你和我们在一起 |
| 456 | We'll be back again tomorrow. | 我们明天再来 |
| 457 | See you then. | 再见 |
| 458 | Cheerio. | 再见 |
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