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CNN-News/2026/11/08/0900 | 美国中

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P1CNN-News/2026/11/08/0900 | 美国中13:30
P2CNN-News/2026/11/08/0900 | 美国中13:30

P1 · CNN-News/2026/11/08/0900 | 美国中期选举:独立选民成民主党转向关键 p01 中英 (P1)

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时间英文中文
0:06The eyes have it.眼有其义.
0:07I'm Michael Smirconish in the Philly Burbs.我是迈克尔・斯密科尼什 在费城布尔布斯。
0:10Four days after the midterms, the postmortems are in.期中后四日,后尸归.
0:12It's amazing to me how much of the explanation for the Democratic wave令人惊奇的是 民主浪潮的多少解释
0:16has been incomplete at best.充其量是不完整的。
0:19Consider the New York Times headline,想想纽约时报的头条
0:21Every Major Demographic Group Swung Left Amid Trump Backlash.每个主要人口组 Swung左倾 川普反弹。
0:25The Times reported that every major demographic group nationally across《泰晤士报》报道,全国范围内的每个主要人口群体
0:29race, age, gender, and education swung back toward the Democratic Party.种族、年龄、性别、教育 向民主党倾斜
0:34The accompanying graphs track young voters, Hispanic voters,随附的图表追踪年轻选民,西班牙裔选民,
展开字幕全文(203 条)
序号英文中文
1The eyes have it.眼有其义.
2I'm Michael Smirconish in the Philly Burbs.我是迈克尔・斯密科尼什 在费城布尔布斯。
3Four days after the midterms, the postmortems are in.期中后四日,后尸归.
4It's amazing to me how much of the explanation for the Democratic wave令人惊奇的是 民主浪潮的多少解释
5has been incomplete at best.充其量是不完整的。
6Consider the New York Times headline,想想纽约时报的头条
7Every Major Demographic Group Swung Left Amid Trump Backlash.每个主要人口组 Swung左倾 川普反弹。
8The Times reported that every major demographic group nationally across《泰晤士报》报道,全国范围内的每个主要人口群体
9race, age, gender, and education swung back toward the Democratic Party.种族、年龄、性别、教育 向民主党倾斜
10The accompanying graphs track young voters, Hispanic voters,随附的图表追踪年轻选民,西班牙裔选民,
11white voters without a college degree, black voters, and older voters.没有大学学历的白人选民,黑人选民,以及年龄较大的选民.
12The postmortem was pretty much the same at the Washington Post.死后在华盛顿邮报上几乎一样
13The headline there, The Voting Groups That Powered the Democratic Sweep.上面的头条是 给民主派注入力量的投票小组
14The focus at Wash Po, Majority Hispanic Counties,重点在沃什波, 多数西班牙裔州,
15Lower Income Counties, Younger Counties, and Rural Counties.收入较低州、年轻州和农村州。
16Here's another, USA Today, How Major Demographic Swings这是另一个,今天的美国, 如何主要的人口变化
17Propelled Democrats to a Midterm Route.支持民主党进入中途路线.
18The lead noted that Democrats pulled off a stunning midterm route主角指出,民主党人 完成了惊人的中期路线
19by making sizable inroads with nearly every major demographic group与几乎每个主要人口群体取得长足进展
20and then focused on Hispanic voters, midterm voters younger than 30,然后专注于西班牙裔选民, 30岁以下的中期选民,
21and voters who cast their ballots for the first time.和首次投票的选民。
22There was discussion of Catholic voters.有人讨论了天主教选民的问题。
23There was discussion of Jewish voters.有人讨论了犹太选民的问题。
24One more, The Associated Press, the outlet that many others rely on还有一个,美联社, 许多其他人依赖的出口
25to make their election night calls.在选举之夜打电话
26The headline at the AP, Young Voters Let a Sharp Shift Toward Democrats在AP的头条,青年选民 让一个尖锐的向民主党的转变
27在2026年中期, AP 投票人Poll Finds。
28And here, the emphasis was on voters under 30 who shifted sharply left,这里,重点是30岁以下的选民 他们急剧左转,
29Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas, and black and white voters特别是德克萨斯州的西班牙裔选民和黑白选民
30who also moved toward Democrats.他们也向民主党进军
31It also noted the erosion of Republican inroads with black voters它还注意到,共和党与黑人选民的接触受到侵蚀。
32and an increase in support for Democrats among moderates.并增加温和派对民主党的支持。
33I suspect all this analysis is accurate, but incomplete.我怀疑这些分析都是准确的,但不完整.
34Instead, it was Jeremy Gruber, Senior Vice President of Open Primaries,相反,这是杰里米·格鲁伯,高级副总裁 公开的 Primarys,
35who dove into the exit poll data and saw what the others were missing.并看到其他人失踪了
36The group most responsible for determining the outcome of the midterms负责确定中期结果的小组
37was none of the above or a subset of all of the above.都不是以上任何一项,也不是以上所有一项的子集。
38It was independents.它是独立的。
39As Gruber noted on Substack, writing,正如格鲁伯在《Substack》上指出的,
40In some of the most consequential races in the country,在国内一些最严重的比赛中,
41they went 63% for James Tallarico in Texas,他们为得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科 做了63%
4262% for Sherrod Brown in Ohio,俄亥俄州雪罗德布朗62%
4364% for Annie Andrews in South Carolina,南卡罗莱纳州安妮安德鲁斯64%
4464% for Adam Hamilton in Kansas.堪萨斯州亚当·汉密尔顿64%.
45In statewide contests, they supported Sand in Iowa by 65%,在全州比赛中,他们在爱荷华州支持桑德65%,
46and Gina Inajosa in Texas by 59%.以及德克萨斯州吉娜·伊纳霍萨的59%。
47These weren't marginal differences.这些不是边际差异。
48These were the votes that changed the map.这些选票改变了地图。
49And consider where those numbers came from.想想这些数字是从哪里来的
50Tallarico ended a 32-year Republican winning streak in Texas statewide races.塔拉里科结束了共和党在德克萨斯州全州比赛中32年的胜利纪录.
51Inajosa unseated Greg Abbott.伊纳霍萨解开格雷格·阿博特
52Hamilton becomes the first Democratic senator from Kansas in nearly a century.汉密尔顿成为近一个世纪以来第一位来自堪萨斯州的民主党参议员.
53In states like those, a Democrat who wins only Democrats loses.在这样的州里,一个只赢民主党人的民主党人输了.
54The math doesn't work unless the middle breaks big.数学不起作用 除非中段破裂大。
55And nationally, it's the same arithmetic.而全国之算术也相同.
56According to SSRS poll of midterm voters,根据SSRS对中期选民的民意测验,
5735% identified as Democrat, 32% Republican.35%被确认为民主党,32%为共和党.
58These voters tend to be equally loyal to their party,这些选民往往同样忠于他们的政党,
59so combined, they come close to canceling each other out.因此,他们接近 取消对方。
60That leaves 33%, a third of all voters, who self-identify as independents.剩下的33%,占所有选民的三分之一,他们自我认同为独立人士.
61This is the group that decides elections.这是决定选举的团体。
62And in the midterms, they split 58% to 38% in favor of the Democrats in the House.而在中期赛中,他们以58%至38%的分红支持众议院的民主党.
63That's a 20-point edge representing a huge shift to the left compared to 2024.与2024年相比,20分的边缘代表着向左的巨大转变.
64These numbers mean that more than half the current 12-point这些数字表明,目前12点以上
65national leave for Democrats in the House comes from independents.众议院的民主党国民假期来自独立人士.
66These voters, of course, are equally in play for Senate races.当然,这些选民同样参与参议院的竞选。
67Independents are also hiding inside the demographic groups that everybody else highlighted.独立人士也躲在其他人强调的人口群体中。
68Indeed, these groups represented a bigger swing to the Democrats事实上,这些团体对民主党来说是一个更大的转变
69than seen in the electorate at large.而不是在广大选民中看到的
70Some additional data.一些补充数据。
7118 to 29-year-olds are 38% independent.18至29岁者独立占38%.
72They voted Democratic 73 to 25.他们投票给民主党73票对25票.
73First-time voters, 37% independent.初选选民,独立37%.
74They voted Democratic 65 to 35.他们投票给民主党65比35。
75Nonvoters from 2024, who voted in 2026, are 51% independent.2024年参加投票的无表决权者为51%独立.
76They voted Democratic 70 to 25.他们投票给民主党70比25。
77So-called double-haters, who have an unfavorable view of both parties,所谓双恨者,对双方有不悦之心,
78are 47% independent, and they voted Democratic 61 to 33.他们投票支持民主61比33。
79Numbers such as these led Jeremy Gruber to challenge the stereotype of independents这样的数字让Jeremy Gruber挑战了独立派的定型观念
80as apathetic, checked out, noncommittal, or apolitical.作为冷漠,检查, 不承诺,或非政治。
81That they don't care enough, that they're somehow less engaged than Democrats and Republicans.他们不够关心, 他们的接触程度比民主党和共和党少。
82This election should bury that misconception.这次选举应该消除这种误解。
83At the root of the demographic groups that make up the media default are independent voters.构成媒体违约的人口群体的根源是独立选民。
84They are the Voldemort of the 2026 campaign.他们是2026年运动的伏地魔.
85The group that shall not even be named, even though they best explain what just happened.即使他们能最好地解释刚才发生的事,
86By the way, credit to the Wall Street Journal.顺便说一句 华尔街日报的信用
87The headline there was, the voters who swung Congress away from Trump头条是, 投票人谁吹 国会远离特朗普
88and the first graph identified the share of independents who voted for Democrats第一张图确定了独立人士投票支持民主党的比例
89and how it had jumped since the last election.自从上次选举以来,情况如何。
90It reminds me of the way that Gallup's annual party identification numbers used to get reported.这让我想起了盖洛普年度聚会身份号码被举报的方式.
91Independents were the plurality year after year, but the headlines came from a follow-up question独立人士是年复一年的多元性 但头条来自一个后续问题
92asking independents which party they leaned toward.问独立者他们倾向哪一方。
93In January of 2025, 43% of Americans called themselves independent.2025年1月,43%的美国人自称独立.
94The story?故事吗?
95GOP holds slight edge in party affiliation for third straight year.GOP在第三年的党内地位略微低。
96This past January, Gallup finally led with the real news.今年一月,盖洛普终于带来了一个真实的消息。
97New high of 45% in U.S. identify as political independents.美国新高45%确定为政治独立人士.
98One more thing about independents, they have no permanent address.关于独立人士,他们没有永久地址。
99They went Democratic by 18 points in 2006, then Republican by 19 points in 2010,他们于2006年以18分的成绩进军民主党,2010年又以19分的成绩进军共和党.
100then Democratic by 12 in 2018.2018年时民主党12强.
101They're not a partisan bloc.他们不是一个党派集团。
102They're the jury that renders a verdict on whoever holds power.陪审团对掌权者作出判决
103The midterms weren't necessarily a Democratic realignment.中期不一定是民主调整
104Independents didn't suddenly become Democrats.独立党并没有突然成为民主党人.
105They made a judgment about the direction of the country and the president他们对国家和总统的方向做出了判断
106and the party they believed was responsible.他们所信仰的党羽,
107Democrats would be wise not to mistake this election for a mandate.民主党人最好不要错把这次选举当作任务.
108These voters aren't a constituency that either party can take for granted.这些选民并不是任何一方都能视为理所当然的选区.
109And here's the takeaway for 2028 contenders.这是2028年竞争对手的外卖
110You'll need your party to win a nomination.你需要你的党赢得提名
111But the voters who will decide whether you win the White House are independents.但决定你是否赢得白宫的选民是独立人士.
112Just ask Senators-elect Tallarico, Brown, Andrews, and Hamilton.问问当选参议员塔拉里科、布朗、安德鲁和汉密尔顿
113Joining me now is Senior Vice President at Open Primary's,现在加入我,是高级副总裁 在公开小学,
114lawyer, writer, nationally recognized public policy advocate,律师、作家、国家公认的公共政策倡导者、
115Jeremy Gruber, who I was just talking about.杰里米·格鲁伯,我刚刚说的那个人。
116Okay, Jeremy, great to see you.好吧,杰里米,很高兴见到你。
117Why have so many outlets missed what you consider to be the biggest story of the midterm?为什么这么多的媒体 错过了你认为 中期最大的故事?
118Yeah, look, if this was a blue wave, it was an independent voter tsunami.是啊,你看,如果这是一个蓝色的浪潮, 这是一个独立的选民海啸。
119Independent voters didn't just break decisively for Democrats.对民主党来说,独立选民并不只是决定性的打破.
120They showed up.他们出现了。
12141 million independent voters showed up and voted in the midterms.4100万独立选民露面,在中期投票.
122They overwhelmingly dominated early voting.她们在早期投票中占绝大多数。
123You look at Texas, for example, 7.7 million early voters.你看看德克萨斯州,例如,770万早期选民。
124The largest group of those voters, not Republicans, not Democrats, but independent voters.这些选民中最大的群体,不是共和党人,也不是民主党人,而是独立的选民.
125And Tallarico got elected almost before the polls even opened on Tuesday.而塔拉里科几乎在星期二的投票开始前就当选.
126Why are they getting it wrong?他们为什么搞错了?
127Well, look, politicians and pundits have been trying to put independent voters back into a box for years.政治人物和专家 多年来一直试图把独立选民 重新放进一个盒子
128We're called leaners.我们被称为瘦子。
129We're called closet partisans.我们被称为衣柜游击队员。
130We're not related to as legitimate.我们没有合法关系
131And if there's anything we can learn from the 2026 midterms, well, independents are finally legitimate.如果我们能从2026年中期中吸取什么教训, 那么,独立者最终是合法的。
132And if you want to know why they don't understand us, they don't even know who we are.如果你想知道为什么他们不理解我们 他们甚至不知道我们是谁
133So take a look at some of the numbers that you were talking about.看看你刚才讲的一些数字。
134Seventy percent of young voters went Democratic.70%的年轻选民是民主党人。
135Latinos, two to one Democratic.拉丁裔,2比1民主党人.
136Who are these groups of voters?这些选民团体是谁?
13757 percent of Gen Z voters, independent.57%的Gen Z选民独立.
13852 percent of Latino voters, independent.52%的拉丁裔选民,独立选民.
139America is going independent.美国要独立了
140We are the largest and fastest growing group of voters in the country.我们是该国最大和增长最快的选民群体。
141And we are the largest group of registered voters in 10 states, the second largest group in most others.我们是10个州中最大的注册选民群体, 在大多数其他州的第二大群体。
142We are here to stay, and it's time for the political establishment to recognize that.我们在这里停留,现在是政治机构承认这一点的时候了.
143OK, Jeremy, not lost on me is that independents decided races, as you point out, in Texas, Kansas, Ohio.好吧,杰里米,我不是迷路 独立人士决定种族, 正如你指出, 在德克萨斯州,堪萨斯州,俄亥俄州。
144And yet in many states, we can't vote in primaries.然而,在许多州,我们不能在初选中投票。
145What does this election say about closed primaries?这次选举对关闭初选有何看法?
146Well, it says that independent voters are now the kingmakers in American politics.它说,独立选民现在是美国政坛的君主。
147It's going to be up to both parties to decide whether they start to respect independent voters for who we are.将由双方决定是否开始尊重独立选民对我们的身分.
148We are active, engaged, proud Americans who want to participate in government taxpayer funded elections, which primaries are.我们是积极、积极、自豪的美国人, 他们想参加政府纳税人资助的选举, 初选就是。
149And it's going to be up to both parties in the next two years to show whether they want to accept us as who we are and start to build those bridges.在接下来的两年里,双方要表明他们是否愿意接受我们自己并开始建造这些桥梁。
150That begins with letting us vote, letting us vote in the 16 states with closed primaries,首先让我们投票 让16个州的初选结束
151letting us vote in the many other states that shut presidential primary elections to us让我们在许多其他州投票 关闭总统初选
152and so many other aspects of election administration that make independent voters second class citizens.以及选举管理的其它许多方面,使独立选民成为二等公民。
153It's time to show independent voters some respect.是时候给独立选民一些尊重了.
154And we're going to be looking to call in some chips with both parties as to where they stand with independent voters.我们正想找两个政党 谈谈他们与独立选民的立场
155Independence moved 20 points toward Democrats, as you know, in House races.独立在众议院的比赛中向民主党人移动了20分。
156Where were they voting, pardon me, for Democrats or against the president?他们在哪里投票,原谅我, 民主党或反对总统?
157How do you break that result down?你怎么打破这个结果?
158Well, you look at some of the polling that happened right before the election, and it's quite interesting.你看一些选举前的民意测验 很有趣
159Six in 10 voters had a negative view of the Democratic Party.十分之六的选民对民主党持负面看法.
160The Democratic Party was polling below Trump in some polls.民主党在一些民调中在特朗普以下投票.
161But three quarters of Americans, including independent voters, said the country was on the wrong track and they wanted something new.但是,四分之三的美国人,包括独立选民,说这个国家走错了轨道,他们想要一些新的东西.
162And that's beginning with independent voters.这是从独立选民开始的。
163Independent voters are looking for real problem solving.独立选民正在寻找真正解决问题的办法。
164They're looking for solutions based politics.他们正在寻找基于解决方案的政治.
165We are tired of the red meat, hyper partisan, do nothing politics, the anger in our politics.我们厌倦了红肉,极端的党派主义,不做政治,不做政治中的愤怒.
166We are proud Americans.我们是自豪的美国人。
167We want our politics to be proud, but we want it to deliver.我们希望我们的政治能够骄傲,但我们希望它能够实现。
168And we're looking to both parties to deliver.我们期待双方提供。
169Quick final question for Jeremy Gruber.给杰里米·格鲁伯的快问题
170I've got a note.我有一个字条。
171Independent candidates, however, did not have a particularly good day.然而,独立候选人并没有特别愉快的一天。
172How come?为什么?
173Well, look, I think if you if you look at the issue, independent candidates, independent voters are not exactly the same thing.如果你看看这个问题,独立候选人,独立选民 并不完全一样。
174Look, independent candidates did amazing.听着,独立候选人的确很棒
175It was just a few years ago that independents were called spoilers.就在几年前,独立者被称为破坏者。
176They got a few percentage points of the vote.他们得到几个百分点的选票。
177Well, we can take that spoiler argument and throw it in the trash because independent candidates did well.我们可以把那个破坏者的论点扔进垃圾桶 因为独立候选人表现很好
178Dan Osborne, 45 percent in Nebraska, Todd Achilles in Idaho, Seth Bodnar in Montana did great.丹·奥斯本(Dan Osborne),内布拉斯加州45%,爱达荷州的托德·阿基里斯(Todd Achilles),蒙大拿州的赛斯·博德纳(Seth Bodnar)都表现很好.
179But look at not just independent candidates, but independent minded candidates broke out big time.但看看不仅独立候选人,而且独立心智的候选人也爆发了巨大的时间.
180Rob Sand in Iowa, he didn't run as a Democrat.爱荷华州的罗布·桑德,他没有作为民主党人参选.
181He ran as an independent.他作为独立人士参选.
182And so many members of the Democratic base in in the Senate races ran as independents.如此之多的民主党成员 以独立人士身份参选
183You look at central Kansas, one of my favorite races, Zach Dembeau, deep red Kansas.你看堪萨斯中部 我最喜欢的种族之一 Zach Dembeau 深红色堪萨斯
184He built a candidacy breaking out independent voters, reaching out to independent voters.他建立了一个突破独立选民的候选资格,接触独立选民.
185And he won because of it, swinging a district 15 points.而他也因此获胜,挥舞了一个分区15分.
186Independents are going to be looking to candidates that do exactly that.独立人士将寻找 完全这样做的候选人。
187Reach out to us, talk to us and build bridges with us.联系我们,和我们谈谈,和我们一起搭桥。
188I wish I could bottle your enthusiasm, which I share, for independents.我希望我能把你对独立人士的热情 与我分享
189Thank you, Jeremy Gruber.谢谢 杰里米·格鲁伯
190And to everybody at home, what are your thoughts?对家里的每一个人来说,你有什么想法?
191Hit me up on social media.在社交媒体上打我
192I will read some responses throughout the course of the program from the World of X.我将在整个节目过程中阅读X世界的一些答复。
193As the percentage of independents grows, elections will become more gut checks than realignments.随着独立人士比例的增长,选举将比重新调整成为更多的直觉检查。
194Anyone who believes South Carolina has suddenly gone blue is delusional.相信南卡罗来纳州突然变成蓝色的人都是妄想症
195And Troy, I think that Jeremy just made that case with data SSRS, which provides CNN with all our data.特洛伊,我想Jeremy刚刚用数据SSRS做了这个案例, 数据提供了CNN的所有数据。
196That was their data.这是他们的数据。
197It tells a compelling story.它讲述了一个令人信服的故事。
198And I I just think it got lost this week.我只是觉得这周不见了
199And I value having a platform to be able to share that kind of information.我非常重视拥有一个平台 能够分享这种信息。
200Up ahead, a boycott of Jewish businesses.前面是抵制犹太人的生意
201It sounds like 1930s Germany.这听起来像1930年代的德国。
202It's 2026 Philadelphia and voters rejected data centers.费城是2026年,选民拒绝数据中心.
203Wall Street lost a trillion dollars in tech value and Wall Street lost a trillion dollars in tech value and Wall Street lost a trillion dollars in tech value and Wall Street lost a trillion dollars in tech value and Wall Street lost a trillion dollars in 华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元,华尔街科技价值损失一万亿元.
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P2 · CNN-News/2026/11/08/0900 | 美国中期选举:独立选民成民主党转向关键 p02 英 (P2)

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时间英文中文
0:06The eyes have it.眼有其义.
0:07I'm Michael Smirconish in the Philly Burbs.我是迈克尔・斯密科尼什 在费城布尔布斯。
0:10Four days after the midterms, the postmortems are in.期中后四日,后尸归.
0:12It's amazing to me how much of the explanation for the Democratic wave令人惊奇的是 民主浪潮的多少解释
0:16has been incomplete at best.充其量是不完整的。
0:19Consider the New York Times headline,想想纽约时报的头条
0:21Every Major Demographic Group Swung Left Amid Trump Backlash.每个主要人口组 Swung左倾 川普反弹。
0:25The Times reported that every major demographic group nationally across《泰晤士报》报道,全国范围内的每个主要人口群体
0:29race, age, gender, and education swung back toward the Democratic Party.种族、年龄、性别、教育 向民主党倾斜
0:34The accompanying graphs track young voters, Hispanic voters,随附的图表追踪年轻选民,西班牙裔选民,
展开字幕全文(203 条)
序号英文中文
1The eyes have it.眼有其义.
2I'm Michael Smirconish in the Philly Burbs.我是迈克尔・斯密科尼什 在费城布尔布斯。
3Four days after the midterms, the postmortems are in.期中后四日,后尸归.
4It's amazing to me how much of the explanation for the Democratic wave令人惊奇的是 民主浪潮的多少解释
5has been incomplete at best.充其量是不完整的。
6Consider the New York Times headline,想想纽约时报的头条
7Every Major Demographic Group Swung Left Amid Trump Backlash.每个主要人口组 Swung左倾 川普反弹。
8The Times reported that every major demographic group nationally across《泰晤士报》报道,全国范围内的每个主要人口群体
9race, age, gender, and education swung back toward the Democratic Party.种族、年龄、性别、教育 向民主党倾斜
10The accompanying graphs track young voters, Hispanic voters,随附的图表追踪年轻选民,西班牙裔选民,
11white voters without a college degree, black voters, and older voters.没有大学学历的白人选民,黑人选民,以及年龄较大的选民.
12The postmortem was pretty much the same at the Washington Post.死后在华盛顿邮报上几乎一样
13The headline there, The Voting Groups That Powered the Democratic Sweep.上面的头条是 给民主派注入力量的投票小组
14The focus at Wash Po, Majority Hispanic Counties,重点在沃什波, 多数西班牙裔州,
15Lower Income Counties, Younger Counties, and Rural Counties.收入较低州、年轻州和农村州。
16Here's another, USA Today, How Major Demographic Swings这是另一个,今天的美国, 如何主要的人口变化
17Propelled Democrats to a Midterm Route.支持民主党进入中途路线.
18The lead noted that Democrats pulled off a stunning midterm route主角指出,民主党人 完成了惊人的中期路线
19by making sizable inroads with nearly every major demographic group与几乎每个主要人口群体取得长足进展
20and then focused on Hispanic voters, midterm voters younger than 30,然后专注于西班牙裔选民, 30岁以下的中期选民,
21and voters who cast their ballots for the first time.和首次投票的选民。
22There was discussion of Catholic voters.有人讨论了天主教选民的问题。
23There was discussion of Jewish voters.有人讨论了犹太选民的问题。
24One more, The Associated Press, the outlet that many others rely on还有一个,美联社, 许多其他人依赖的出口
25to make their election night calls.在选举之夜打电话
26The headline at the AP, Young Voters Let a Sharp Shift Toward Democrats在AP的头条,青年选民 让一个尖锐的向民主党的转变
27在2026年中期, AP 投票人Poll Finds。
28And here, the emphasis was on voters under 30 who shifted sharply left,这里,重点是30岁以下的选民 他们急剧左转,
29Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas, and black and white voters特别是德克萨斯州的西班牙裔选民和黑白选民
30who also moved toward Democrats.他们也向民主党进军
31It also noted the erosion of Republican inroads with black voters它还注意到,共和党与黑人选民的接触受到侵蚀。
32and an increase in support for Democrats among moderates.并增加温和派对民主党的支持。
33I suspect all this analysis is accurate, but incomplete.我怀疑这些分析都是准确的,但不完整.
34Instead, it was Jeremy Gruber, Senior Vice President of Open Primaries,相反,这是杰里米·格鲁伯,高级副总裁 公开的 Primarys,
35who dove into the exit poll data and saw what the others were missing.并看到其他人失踪了
36The group most responsible for determining the outcome of the midterms负责确定中期结果的小组
37was none of the above or a subset of all of the above.都不是以上任何一项,也不是以上所有一项的子集。
38It was independents.它是独立的。
39As Gruber noted on Substack, writing,正如格鲁伯在《Substack》上指出的,
40In some of the most consequential races in the country,在国内一些最严重的比赛中,
41they went 63% for James Tallarico in Texas,他们为得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科 做了63%
4262% for Sherrod Brown in Ohio,俄亥俄州雪罗德布朗62%
4364% for Annie Andrews in South Carolina,南卡罗莱纳州安妮安德鲁斯64%
4464% for Adam Hamilton in Kansas.堪萨斯州亚当·汉密尔顿64%.
45In statewide contests, they supported Sand in Iowa by 65%,在全州比赛中,他们在爱荷华州支持桑德65%,
46and Gina Inajosa in Texas by 59%.以及德克萨斯州吉娜·伊纳霍萨的59%。
47These weren't marginal differences.这些不是边际差异。
48These were the votes that changed the map.这些选票改变了地图。
49And consider where those numbers came from.想想这些数字是从哪里来的
50Tallarico ended a 32-year Republican winning streak in Texas statewide races.塔拉里科结束了共和党在德克萨斯州全州比赛中32年的胜利纪录.
51Inajosa unseated Greg Abbott.伊纳霍萨解开格雷格·阿博特
52Hamilton becomes the first Democratic senator from Kansas in nearly a century.汉密尔顿成为近一个世纪以来第一位来自堪萨斯州的民主党参议员.
53In states like those, a Democrat who wins only Democrats loses.在这样的州里,一个只赢民主党人的民主党人输了.
54The math doesn't work unless the middle breaks big.数学不起作用 除非中段破裂大。
55And nationally, it's the same arithmetic.而全国之算术也相同.
56According to SSRS poll of midterm voters,根据SSRS对中期选民的民意测验,
5735% identified as Democrat, 32% Republican.35%被确认为民主党,32%为共和党.
58These voters tend to be equally loyal to their party,这些选民往往同样忠于他们的政党,
59so combined, they come close to canceling each other out.因此,他们接近 取消对方。
60That leaves 33%, a third of all voters, who self-identify as independents.剩下的33%,占所有选民的三分之一,他们自我认同为独立人士.
61This is the group that decides elections.这是决定选举的团体。
62And in the midterms, they split 58% to 38% in favor of the Democrats in the House.而在中期赛中,他们以58%至38%的分红支持众议院的民主党.
63That's a 20-point edge representing a huge shift to the left compared to 2024.与2024年相比,20分的边缘代表着向左的巨大转变.
64These numbers mean that more than half the current 12-point这些数字表明,目前12点以上
65national leave for Democrats in the House comes from independents.众议院的民主党国民假期来自独立人士.
66These voters, of course, are equally in play for Senate races.当然,这些选民同样参与参议院的竞选。
67Independents are also hiding inside the demographic groups that everybody else highlighted.独立人士也躲在其他人强调的人口群体中。
68Indeed, these groups represented a bigger swing to the Democrats事实上,这些团体对民主党来说是一个更大的转变
69than seen in the electorate at large.而不是在广大选民中看到的
70Some additional data.一些补充数据。
7118 to 29-year-olds are 38% independent.18至29岁者独立占38%.
72They voted Democratic 73 to 25.他们投票给民主党73票对25票.
73First-time voters, 37% independent.初选选民,独立37%.
74They voted Democratic 65 to 35.他们投票给民主党65比35。
75Nonvoters from 2024, who voted in 2026, are 51% independent.2024年参加投票的无表决权者为51%独立.
76They voted Democratic 70 to 25.他们投票给民主党70比25。
77So-called double-haters, who have an unfavorable view of both parties,所谓双恨者,对双方有不悦之心,
78are 47% independent, and they voted Democratic 61 to 33.他们投票支持民主61比33。
79Numbers such as these led Jeremy Gruber to challenge the stereotype of independents这样的数字让Jeremy Gruber挑战了独立派的定型观念
80as apathetic, checked out, noncommittal, or apolitical.作为冷漠,检查, 不承诺,或非政治。
81That they don't care enough, that they're somehow less engaged than Democrats and Republicans.他们不够关心, 他们的接触程度比民主党和共和党少。
82This election should bury that misconception.这次选举应该消除这种误解。
83At the root of the demographic groups that make up the media default are independent voters.构成媒体违约的人口群体的根源是独立选民。
84They are the Voldemort of the 2026 campaign.他们是2026年运动的伏地魔.
85The group that shall not even be named, even though they best explain what just happened.即使他们能最好地解释刚才发生的事,
86By the way, credit to the Wall Street Journal.顺便说一句 华尔街日报的信用
87The headline there was, the voters who swung Congress away from Trump头条是, 投票人谁吹 国会远离特朗普
88and the first graph identified the share of independents who voted for Democrats第一张图确定了独立人士投票支持民主党的比例
89and how it had jumped since the last election.自从上次选举以来,情况如何。
90It reminds me of the way that Gallup's annual party identification numbers used to get reported.这让我想起了盖洛普年度聚会身份号码被举报的方式.
91Independents were the plurality year after year, but the headlines came from a follow-up question独立人士是年复一年的多元性 但头条来自一个后续问题
92asking independents which party they leaned toward.问独立者他们倾向哪一方。
93In January of 2025, 43% of Americans called themselves independent.2025年1月,43%的美国人自称独立.
94The story?故事吗?
95GOP holds slight edge in party affiliation for third straight year.GOP在第三年的党内地位略微低。
96This past January, Gallup finally led with the real news.今年一月,盖洛普终于带来了一个真实的消息。
97New high of 45% in U.S. identify as political independents.美国新高45%确定为政治独立人士.
98One more thing about independents, they have no permanent address.关于独立人士,他们没有永久地址。
99They went Democratic by 18 points in 2006, then Republican by 19 points in 2010,他们于2006年以18分的成绩进军民主党,2010年又以19分的成绩进军共和党.
100then Democratic by 12 in 2018.2018年时民主党12强.
101They're not a partisan bloc.他们不是一个党派集团。
102They're the jury that renders a verdict on whoever holds power.陪审团对掌权者作出判决
103The midterms weren't necessarily a Democratic realignment.中期不一定是民主调整
104Independents didn't suddenly become Democrats.独立党并没有突然成为民主党人.
105They made a judgment about the direction of the country and the president他们对国家和总统的方向做出了判断
106and the party they believed was responsible.他们所信仰的党羽,
107Democrats would be wise not to mistake this election for a mandate.民主党人最好不要错把这次选举当作任务.
108These voters aren't a constituency that either party can take for granted.这些选民并不是任何一方都能视为理所当然的选区.
109And here's the takeaway for 2028 contenders.这是2028年竞争对手的外卖
110You'll need your party to win a nomination.你需要你的党赢得提名
111But the voters who will decide whether you win the White House are independents.但决定你是否赢得白宫的选民是独立人士.
112Just ask Senators-elect Tallarico, Brown, Andrews, and Hamilton.问问当选参议员塔拉里科、布朗、安德鲁和汉密尔顿
113Joining me now is Senior Vice President at Open Primary's,现在加入我,是高级副总裁 在公开小学,
114lawyer, writer, nationally recognized public policy advocate,律师、作家、国家公认的公共政策倡导者、
115Jeremy Gruber, who I was just talking about.杰里米·格鲁伯,我刚刚说的那个人。
116Okay, Jeremy, great to see you.好吧,杰里米,很高兴见到你。
117Why have so many outlets missed what you consider to be the biggest story of the midterm?为什么这么多的媒体 错过了你认为 中期最大的故事?
118Yeah, look, if this was a blue wave, it was an independent voter tsunami.是啊,你看,如果这是一个蓝色的浪潮, 这是一个独立的选民海啸。
119Independent voters didn't just break decisively for Democrats.对民主党来说,独立选民并不只是决定性的打破.
120They showed up.他们出现了。
12141 million independent voters showed up and voted in the midterms.4100万独立选民露面,在中期投票.
122They overwhelmingly dominated early voting.她们在早期投票中占绝大多数。
123You look at Texas, for example, 7.7 million early voters.你看看德克萨斯州,例如,770万早期选民。
124The largest group of those voters, not Republicans, not Democrats, but independent voters.这些选民中最大的群体,不是共和党人,也不是民主党人,而是独立的选民.
125And Tallarico got elected almost before the polls even opened on Tuesday.而塔拉里科几乎在星期二的投票开始前就当选.
126Why are they getting it wrong?他们为什么搞错了?
127Well, look, politicians and pundits have been trying to put independent voters back into a box for years.政治人物和专家 多年来一直试图把独立选民 重新放进一个盒子
128We're called leaners.我们被称为瘦子。
129We're called closet partisans.我们被称为衣柜游击队员。
130We're not related to as legitimate.我们没有合法关系
131And if there's anything we can learn from the 2026 midterms, well, independents are finally legitimate.如果我们能从2026年中期中吸取什么教训, 那么,独立者最终是合法的。
132And if you want to know why they don't understand us, they don't even know who we are.如果你想知道为什么他们不理解我们 他们甚至不知道我们是谁
133So take a look at some of the numbers that you were talking about.看看你刚才讲的一些数字。
134Seventy percent of young voters went Democratic.70%的年轻选民是民主党人。
135Latinos, two to one Democratic.拉丁裔,2比1民主党人.
136Who are these groups of voters?这些选民团体是谁?
13757 percent of Gen Z voters, independent.57%的Gen Z选民独立.
13852 percent of Latino voters, independent.52%的拉丁裔选民,独立选民.
139America is going independent.美国要独立了
140We are the largest and fastest growing group of voters in the country.我们是该国最大和增长最快的选民群体。
141And we are the largest group of registered voters in 10 states, the second largest group in most others.我们是10个州中最大的注册选民群体, 在大多数其他州的第二大群体。
142We are here to stay, and it's time for the political establishment to recognize that.我们在这里停留,现在是政治机构承认这一点的时候了.
143OK, Jeremy, not lost on me is that independents decided races, as you point out, in Texas, Kansas, Ohio.好吧,杰里米,我不是迷路 独立人士决定种族, 正如你指出, 在德克萨斯州,堪萨斯州,俄亥俄州。
144And yet in many states, we can't vote in primaries.然而,在许多州,我们不能在初选中投票。
145What does this election say about closed primaries?这次选举对关闭初选有何看法?
146Well, it says that independent voters are now the kingmakers in American politics.它说,独立选民现在是美国政坛的君主。
147It's going to be up to both parties to decide whether they start to respect independent voters for who we are.将由双方决定是否开始尊重独立选民对我们的身分.
148We are active, engaged, proud Americans who want to participate in government taxpayer funded elections, which primaries are.我们是积极、积极、自豪的美国人, 他们想参加政府纳税人资助的选举, 初选就是。
149And it's going to be up to both parties in the next two years to show whether they want to accept us as who we are and start to build those bridges.在接下来的两年里,双方要表明他们是否愿意接受我们自己并开始建造这些桥梁。
150That begins with letting us vote, letting us vote in the 16 states with closed primaries,首先让我们投票 让16个州的初选结束
151letting us vote in the many other states that shut presidential primary elections to us让我们在许多其他州投票 关闭总统初选
152and so many other aspects of election administration that make independent voters second class citizens.以及选举管理的其它许多方面,使独立选民成为二等公民。
153It's time to show independent voters some respect.是时候给独立选民一些尊重了.
154And we're going to be looking to call in some chips with both parties as to where they stand with independent voters.我们正想找两个政党 谈谈他们与独立选民的立场
155Independence moved 20 points toward Democrats, as you know, in House races.独立在众议院的比赛中向民主党人移动了20分。
156Where were they voting, pardon me, for Democrats or against the president?他们在哪里投票,原谅我, 民主党或反对总统?
157How do you break that result down?你怎么打破这个结果?
158Well, you look at some of the polling that happened right before the election, and it's quite interesting.你看一些选举前的民意测验 很有趣
159Six in 10 voters had a negative view of the Democratic Party.十分之六的选民对民主党持负面看法.
160The Democratic Party was polling below Trump in some polls.民主党在一些民调中在特朗普以下投票.
161But three quarters of Americans, including independent voters, said the country was on the wrong track and they wanted something new.但是,四分之三的美国人,包括独立选民,说这个国家走错了轨道,他们想要一些新的东西.
162And that's beginning with independent voters.这是从独立选民开始的。
163Independent voters are looking for real problem solving.独立选民正在寻找真正解决问题的办法。
164They're looking for solutions based politics.他们正在寻找基于解决方案的政治.
165We are tired of the red meat, hyper partisan, do nothing politics, the anger in our politics.我们厌倦了红肉,极端的党派主义,不做政治,不做政治中的愤怒.
166We are proud Americans.我们是自豪的美国人。
167We want our politics to be proud, but we want it to deliver.我们希望我们的政治能够骄傲,但我们希望它能够实现。
168And we're looking to both parties to deliver.我们期待双方提供。
169Quick final question for Jeremy Gruber.给杰里米·格鲁伯的快问题
170I've got a note.我有一个字条。
171Independent candidates, however, did not have a particularly good day.然而,独立候选人并没有特别愉快的一天。
172How come?为什么?
173Well, look, I think if you if you look at the issue, independent candidates, independent voters are not exactly the same thing.如果你看看这个问题,独立候选人,独立选民 并不完全一样。
174Look, independent candidates did amazing.听着,独立候选人的确很棒
175It was just a few years ago that independents were called spoilers.就在几年前,独立者被称为破坏者。
176They got a few percentage points of the vote.他们得到几个百分点的选票。
177Well, we can take that spoiler argument and throw it in the trash because independent candidates did well.我们可以把那个破坏者的论点扔进垃圾桶 因为独立候选人表现很好
178Dan Osborne, 45 percent in Nebraska, Todd Achilles in Idaho, Seth Bodnar in Montana did great.丹·奥斯本(Dan Osborne),内布拉斯加州45%,爱达荷州的托德·阿基里斯(Todd Achilles),蒙大拿州的赛斯·博德纳(Seth Bodnar)都表现很好.
179But look at not just independent candidates, but independent minded candidates broke out big time.但看看不仅独立候选人,而且独立心智的候选人也爆发了巨大的时间.
180Rob Sand in Iowa, he didn't run as a Democrat.爱荷华州的罗布·桑德,他没有作为民主党人参选.
181He ran as an independent.他作为独立人士参选.
182And so many members of the Democratic base in in the Senate races ran as independents.如此之多的民主党成员 以独立人士身份参选
183You look at central Kansas, one of my favorite races, Zach Dembeau, deep red Kansas.你看堪萨斯中部 我最喜欢的种族之一 Zach Dembeau 深红色堪萨斯
184He built a candidacy breaking out independent voters, reaching out to independent voters.他建立了一个突破独立选民的候选资格,接触独立选民.
185And he won because of it, swinging a district 15 points.而他也因此获胜,挥舞了一个分区15分.
186Independents are going to be looking to candidates that do exactly that.独立人士将寻找 完全这样做的候选人。
187Reach out to us, talk to us and build bridges with us.联系我们,和我们谈谈,和我们一起搭桥。
188I wish I could bottle your enthusiasm, which I share, for independents.我希望我能把你对独立人士的热情 与我分享
189Thank you, Jeremy Gruber.谢谢 杰里米·格鲁伯
190And to everybody at home, what are your thoughts?对家里的每一个人来说,你有什么想法?
191Hit me up on social media.在社交媒体上打我
192I will read some responses throughout the course of the program from the World of X.我将在整个节目过程中阅读X世界的一些答复。
193As the percentage of independents grows, elections will become more gut checks than realignments.随着独立人士比例的增长,选举将比重新调整成为更多的直觉检查。
194Anyone who believes South Carolina has suddenly gone blue is delusional.相信南卡罗来纳州突然变成蓝色的人都是妄想症
195And Troy, I think that Jeremy just made that case with data SSRS, which provides CNN with all our data.特洛伊,我想Jeremy刚刚用数据SSRS做了这个案例, 数据提供了CNN的所有数据。
196That was their data.这是他们的数据。
197It tells a compelling story.它讲述了一个令人信服的故事。
198And I I just think it got lost this week.我只是觉得这周不见了
199And I value having a platform to be able to share that kind of information.我非常重视拥有一个平台 能够分享这种信息。
200Up ahead, a boycott of Jewish businesses.前面是抵制犹太人的生意
201It sounds like 1930s Germany.这听起来像1930年代的德国。
202It's 2026 Philadelphia and voters rejected data centers.费城是2026年,选民拒绝数据中心.
203Wall Street lost a trillion dollars in tech value.华尔街科技价值损失一万亿.
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