关键矿产新矿藏现身中国：供应链安全为何要靠自家后院｜附文稿
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Imagine global shipping stops tomorrow. | 想象一下明天全球航运停止。 |
| 0:02 | Like, it just completely stops. | 喜欢,它只是完全停止。 |
| 0:03 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:04 | The cargo ships stop moving. | 货轮停运. |
| 0:05 | That is a very scary thought. | 这是一个非常可怕的想法。 |
| 0:06 | Trade routes just freeze. | 贸易路线只是冻结。 |
| 0:07 | Yeah, everything halts. | 是啊,一切都停下来。 |
| 0:09 | A country with massive factories would quickly face a huge problem, you know? | 一个拥有大型工厂的国家会很快面临一个巨大的问题,你知道吗? |
| 0:14 | They really would. | 他们真的会的。 |
| 0:14 | They would run out of materials fast. | 他们会很快用光材料 |
展开字幕全文（435 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imagine global shipping stops tomorrow. | 想象一下明天全球航运停止。 |
| 2 | Like, it just completely stops. | 喜欢,它只是完全停止。 |
| 3 | Right. | 对 |
| 4 | The cargo ships stop moving. | 货轮停运. |
| 5 | That is a very scary thought. | 这是一个非常可怕的想法。 |
| 6 | Trade routes just freeze. | 贸易路线只是冻结。 |
| 7 | Yeah, everything halts. | 是啊,一切都停下来。 |
| 8 | A country with massive factories would quickly face a huge problem, you know? | 一个拥有大型工厂的国家会很快面临一个巨大的问题,你知道吗? |
| 9 | They really would. | 他们真的会的。 |
| 10 | They would run out of materials fast. | 他们会很快用光材料 |
| 11 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 12 | They need raw materials to build everything. | 他们需要原料来建造一切. |
| 13 | I mean, from your smartphone to electric cars. | 从你的智能手机到电动车 |
| 14 | And you cannot build those out of thin air. | 你不能用薄空气来制造这些东西。 |
| 15 | No, you cannot. | 不,你不能这么做。 |
| 16 | This is not just a bad dream. | 这不仅仅是一个恶梦。 |
| 17 | It is a very real fear for major world powers right now. | 现在对世界大国来说,这是非常真实的恐惧。 |
| 18 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 19 | So today we are taking a deep dive into how China is trying to secure its supply chain for the future. | 因此,今天我们正在深入探讨中国如何为未来保障其供应链。 |
| 20 | And they are doing it by digging right in their own backyard. | 他们正在自己的后院里进行挖掘。 |
| 21 | Yes, looking at home. | 是的,看着家。 |
| 22 | We have a great stack of sources for you today. | 我们今天有很多消息给你 |
| 23 | We are looking at reports from the South China Morning Post. | 央视"南华早报"报道. |
| 24 | Right. | 对 |
| 25 | And the state-run Xinhua News Agency. | 而国营新华通讯社. |
| 26 | We also have some data from CIECC Research and a price tracking group called Argus. | 我们也有一些来自CIECC Research的数据和一个叫做Argus的价格追踪小组. |
| 27 | It is a perfect time to look at this, really. | 看看这个,真的 |
| 28 | We often think of global trade as this permanent thing, like an unstoppable machine. | 我们常常认为全球贸易是永久的,就像一台不可阻挡的机器。 |
| 29 | Right, like it will always be there. | 对 就像它永远存在一样 |
| 30 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 31 | But the world is getting more divided. | 但世界越来越分裂了。 |
| 32 | Geopolitical tensions are rising. | 地缘政治紧张局势正在加剧。 |
| 33 | Countries are getting nervous. | 各国越来越紧张。 |
| 34 | Very nervous. | 非常紧张。 |
| 35 | They do not want to rely on buying vital resources from other countries. | 他们不想依赖从其他国家购买重要资源。 |
| 36 | Because what if those countries stop selling? | 因为如果这些国家停止销售会怎样? |
| 37 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 38 | So they are scrambling to find resources at home. | 所以他们想在家里寻找资源。 |
| 39 | This push to rely on themselves is changing the global map. | 这种依靠自己的推力正在改变全球地图。 |
| 40 | That brings us to our main story. | 这让我们了解我们的主要故事。 |
| 41 | China just found massive amounts of critical minerals. | 中国刚发现大量重要矿产. |
| 42 | Huge amounts. | 数额巨大。 |
| 43 | We are talking about the exact metals needed to build modern technology. | 我们谈论的是建立现代技术所需要的确切的金属。 |
| 44 | And the crazy part is where they found them. | 疯狂的部分是他们找到他们的地方 |
| 45 | Yeah, this is interesting. | 是啊,这是有趣的。 |
| 46 | They did not go out into empty deserts to find brand new mines. | 他们没有去空旷的沙漠寻找全新的地雷。 |
| 47 | They actually went back to places they were already digging. | 他们实际上回到了他们已经挖掘的地方。 |
| 48 | Right. | 对 |
| 49 | They completed a massive year-long search of their older mines. | 他们完成了对旧矿山长达一年的大规模搜寻. |
| 50 | The size of this search is really hard to imagine. | 这次搜索的规模实在是难以想象. |
| 51 | The Ministry of Natural Resources ran this project. | 这个项目由自然资源部负责实施。 |
| 52 | And they looked at a lot of places. | 他们看了很多地方。 |
| 53 | Over 1,800 operating mines. | 1800多枚作业地雷。 |
| 54 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 55 | Yes. | 对 |
| 56 | And these sites are spread across 27 different regions. | 这些网站分布在27个不同地区. |
| 57 | They basically searched every inch of the country. | 他们基本上搜索了全国的每一寸土地。 |
| 58 | Okay, let's unpack this. | 好吧,让我们打开这个。 |
| 59 | This sounds like looking deep into your couch cushions and suddenly finding a million dollars. | 这听起来像 深看你的沙发垫 突然发现一百万美元。 |
| 60 | That is a fun way to picture it. | 这是一个有趣的方式来想象它。 |
| 61 | Like they went back to old mines and just looked harder. | 就像他们回到了旧矿山 更努力地寻找 |
| 62 | But wait, if they already knew these mines were there, | 但是,等待,如果他们已经知道 这些地雷在那里, |
| 63 | why didn't they take this stuff out 20 years ago? | 为什么他们20年前不把这些东西拿出来? |
| 64 | That is the big question. | 这是一个大问题。 |
| 65 | In the past, miners usually chased the easy targets. | 过去,矿工通常追逐容易的目标. |
| 66 | The easy stuff. | 简单的东西。 |
| 67 | Right. | 对 |
| 68 | They wanted high-grade ore. | 他们想要高档矿石 |
| 69 | That means rock that is packed full of valuable metal. | 这意味着岩石被装满了有价值的金属。 |
| 70 | Because it was cheap to process. | 因为处理很便宜 |
| 71 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 72 | It's cheap and easy. | 廉而易之. |
| 73 | But this time, they changed their focus. | 但这次,他们改变了他们的焦点. |
| 74 | They specifically looked for low-grade deposits. | 他们专门寻找低级存款。 |
| 75 | So what does low-grade mean exactly? | 低级是什么意思? |
| 76 | It means an area where a tiny bit of metal is mixed into a huge mountain of | 它意味着一个区域 一小片金属 混合到一个巨大的山脉 |
| 77 | dirt and waste rock. | 泥土和废岩. |
| 78 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 79 | So they were looking at the leftovers. | 所以他们看着剩下的东西 |
| 80 | The stuff older generations just threw away or ignored. | 那些老一代人抛弃或忽略的东西。 |
| 81 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 82 | They also looked at hard-to-extract deposits. | 他们还研究了难以提取的矿床。 |
| 83 | Meaning it is physically hard to get out. | 意思是很难脱身 |
| 84 | Right. | 对 |
| 85 | Spots where the rock is extremely tough. | 岩石非常坚硬的地方 |
| 86 | Or the metal is chemically trapped inside. | 或者金属被化学物困在里面 |
| 87 | So 20 years ago, getting that metal out was just too difficult. | 所以20年前 把金属拿出来太难了 |
| 88 | The technology was not good enough. | 技术不够好。 |
| 89 | Or, you know, it just cost too much money. | 或者,你知道,它只是花费太多的钱。 |
| 90 | But today is different. | 但是今天是不一样的。 |
| 91 | Today, the technology to extract it is a bit better. | 今天,提取技术要好一点。 |
| 92 | And more importantly, the need for these metals is much higher. | 更重要的是,对这些金属的需求要高得多。 |
| 93 | The pressure to find them makes it worth the extra effort. | 寻找他们的压力使得它值得额外的努力. |
| 94 | Let's talk about the results of this giant treasure hunt. | 让我们来谈谈这次大型淘宝活动的结果. |
| 95 | Because the numbers are really amazing. | 因为数字真的很惊人。 |
| 96 | They found a lot. | 他们发现很多。 |
| 97 | They found resources for a metal called rhenium. | 他们发现了一种叫做"氦"的金属的资源. |
| 98 | And the national supply of rhenium more than doubled. | 而全国的柠檬供应量也翻了一番多. |
| 99 | Finding enough new material to double a national reserve is incredibly rare. | 找到足够的新材料,使国家储备增加一倍,这是极为罕见的。 |
| 100 | That is a massive jump. | 这是一个巨大的跳跃。 |
| 101 | It doesn't stop there either. | 亦无止境. |
| 102 | But. | 不过... |
| 103 | They also found a huge amount of gold. | 他们还发现了大量的黄金. |
| 104 | They uncovered new gold resources equal to 50 large deposits. | 他们发现了相当于50个大矿藏的新黄金资源。 |
| 105 | 50 large deposits. | 50个大存款. |
| 106 | 50. | 50. 联合国 |
| 107 | We measure these things in large deposits to help you understand the size. | 我们用大矿床测量这些东西 来帮助你了解大小 |
| 108 | That adds a lot to their national wealth. | 这大大增加了他们的国家财富。 |
| 109 | They also found nickel. | 他们还发现了镍。 |
| 110 | The new nickel is equal to 30 large deposits. | 新镍等于30个大矿床. |
| 111 | Also a huge amount. | 数额也很大 |
| 112 | 他们发现了大量的 gall,ium,钽,和 van. | |
| 113 | For each of these they found amounts equal to more than 10 large deposits. | 他们每次发现的存款额均超过10笔。 |
| 114 | Those last four you mentioned are very important metals for the government. | 你提到的最后四件对政府很重要 |
| 115 | You do not hear about them every day. | 你没有听到他们每天。 |
| 116 | No, you really don't. | 不,你真的没有。 |
| 117 | But they are vital for making advanced computer chips and specialized electronics. | 但它们对于制造先进的计算机芯片和专用电子设备至关重要。 |
| 118 | Then there was a completely new discovery. | 后来出现了全新的发现. |
| 119 | This one was not in an old mine. | 这个不是在旧矿井里 |
| 120 | Right, this was brand new. | 对,这是全新的。 |
| 121 | They found a major new deposit in a region called Xinjiang. | 他们在一个叫新疆的地区发现了一个重要的新矿床. |
| 122 | It is a massive deposit of zircon sand. | 它是大量储藏的zir沙。 |
| 123 | The size is equal to over 40 large deposits. | 大小相当于40多个大矿床. |
| 124 | What's fascinating here is how this fixes a specific weak area for them. | 这里最令人着迷的是,它如何为它们固定一个特定的薄弱区域。 |
| 125 | What do you mean? | 你说什么? |
| 126 | Well, China has a lot of natural resources, | 中国有很多自然资源 |
| 127 | but they did not have many super large zircon deposits before this find. | 但是在这之前 他们并没有很多超大的zir矿藏 |
| 128 | Ah, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 129 | Xinjiang is a vast region. | 新疆是一个广阔的地区. |
| 130 | Finding a massive source of zircon sand there is a huge win for their domestic supply chain. | 找到巨大的zir砂源头 国内供应链大获全胜 |
| 131 | You know, it is easy to think of this as just heavy industrial news. | 你知道,这很容易 认为这只是重工业新闻。 |
| 132 | It sounds like rocks and dirt. | 听起来像石头和泥土。 |
| 133 | It does. | 没错 |
| 134 | So what does this all mean for the listener? | 这对听众意味着什么? |
| 135 | We are not just talking about heavy industry. | 我们不仅仅是在谈论重工业。 |
| 136 | These are the metals inside the phones in our hands and the cars on our streets. | 这些是我们手中的电话里面的金属 和我们街道上的汽车 |
| 137 | We really are. | 我们真的 |
| 138 | These minerals are the basic building blocks for the future. | 这些矿物是未来的基本基石。 |
| 139 | You need them. | 你需要他们。 |
| 140 | You cannot build a modern economy without them. | 没有他们,你就无法建立现代经济。 |
| 141 | They touch everything from clean energy to space travel. | 从清洁能源到太空旅行,它们都会触摸到一切 |
| 142 | Let's break down why these specific metals are so important. | 我们来分解一下这些金属为什么如此重要。 |
| 143 | Let's start with uranium. | 从铀开始吧 |
| 144 | Our sources point out it is heavily used in jet engines. | 我们的消息来源指出,它被大量用于喷气发动机. |
| 145 | Jet engines are a perfect example of why these metals matter. | 喷气发动机是这些金属为什么重要的一个完美例子. |
| 146 | Inside a jet engine, the temperature gets incredibly high. | 在喷气发动机里,温度会非常高 |
| 147 | Very hot. | 非常热。 |
| 148 | Normal steel would just get soft and melt. | 普通的钢会变软融化 |
| 149 | But if you take rhenium and mix it into other metals, it changes everything. | 但是,如果把he混入其他金属,则会改变一切. |
| 150 | And that mixture of different metals is called an alloy, right? | 而不同金属的混合物被称为合金,对吧? |
| 151 | Let's explain that. | 我们来解释一下 |
| 152 | Yes. | 对 |
| 153 | When you blend different metals together, you create an alloy. | 当你把不同的金属混合在一起, 你就会创造出一种合金。 |
| 154 | Rhenium alloys are special. | nium合金是特殊的. |
| 155 | They can resist extreme heat. | 它们能抵御极端的热量. |
| 156 | So they do not melt. | 所以它们不会融化。 |
| 157 | Right. | 对 |
| 158 | They stay strong even when they are glowing hot. | 即使在发热的时候,它们还是很强壮。 |
| 159 | That keeps the airplane flying safely. | 这让飞机安全飞行 |
| 160 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 161 | The sources also note rhenium is used in oil refining. | 源头还有注 r用于炼油. |
| 162 | It acts as a catalyst. | 它起到催化剂的作用。 |
| 163 | Let's explain what a catalyst actually does in plain English. | 让我们来解释一下催化剂在普通英语中的实际作用. |
| 164 | A catalyst is basically a chemical speed boost. | 催化剂基本上是化学速度的提升. |
| 165 | Think about baking a cake. | 想着烤蛋糕 |
| 166 | Okay, baking a cake. | 好吧,烤一个蛋糕。 |
| 167 | You mix the ingredients, and they slowly change form in the oven. | 混合成份,它们慢慢地在烤箱中改变形态。 |
| 168 | In an oil refinery, they need to change raw oil into useful fuel, like gasoline. | 在炼油厂,他们需要把生油变成有用的燃料,如汽油。 |
| 169 | Right. | 对 |
| 170 | A catalyst makes that chemical change happen much faster and much cleaner. | 一种催化剂使得化学变化发生得更快,更清洁. |
| 171 | Rhenium helps speed up that fuel making process. | nium有助于加速燃料的制造过程. |
| 172 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 173 | That is useful. | 这是有用的。 |
| 174 | Then we have gold. | 然后我们有黄金。 |
| 175 | Everyone knows gold, but people usually think of rings, watches, and jewelry. | 人人都知道黄金,但人们通常会想到戒指、手表和珠宝。 |
| 176 | In this context, nobody is wearing it. | 在这方面,没有人佩戴。 |
| 177 | Gold is an incredible industrial metal. | 黄金是一种令人难以置信的工业金属. |
| 178 | It is highly valued in the electronics industry. | 它在电子工业中受到高度重视。 |
| 179 | Because it carries electricity so well? | 因为它带电这么好? |
| 180 | Yes. | 对 |
| 181 | It is an excellent conductor, but it has another superpower. | 它是一个出色的导体,但它有另一个超能力。 |
| 182 | Gold does not rust. | 黄金不会生锈 |
| 183 | Oh, right. | 对 |
| 184 | It does not tarnish easily. | 它不会轻易玷污。 |
| 185 | When you put a tiny amount of gold inside a computer chip, | 当你在电脑芯片里放些金子 |
| 186 | you know it will work perfectly for years. | 你知道它会 完美地工作多年。 |
| 187 | It will not break down from moisture in the air. | 它不会从空气中的水分中分解出来。 |
| 188 | Next is nickel. | 下一个是镍 |
| 189 | The reports mention it is important for making stainless steel. | 报告提到生产不锈钢的重要性。 |
| 190 | Stainless steel is everywhere in your house. | 无污钢铁随处可见. |
| 191 | It is your kitchen sink. | 这是你的厨房水槽。 |
| 192 | It is your forks and spoons. | 这是你的叉子和勺子。 |
| 193 | Buildings, too? | 建筑物也一样? |
| 194 | Yes, it is used to build tall buildings. | 是的,它用来建造高大的建筑. |
| 195 | Nickel is the magic ingredient that makes the steel strong | 镍是使钢铁坚固的魔法成分 |
| 196 | and keeps it shiny. | 并保持它闪亮。 |
| 197 | But nickel has a much bigger job today. | 但镍今天的工作要大得多。 |
| 198 | It is the heart of electric vehicle batteries. | 它是电动汽车电池的核心。 |
| 199 | We call them EV batteries. | 我们称之为EV电池。 |
| 200 | This is the real reason nickel is so important right now. | 这就是镍现在如此重要的真正原因 |
| 201 | An electric car needs to drive hundreds of miles on a single charge. | 电动车需单程行驶数百英里. |
| 202 | You need a good battery for that. | 你需要一个很好的电池。 |
| 203 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 204 | To do that, you need a battery that can pack a lot of energy into a small space. | 要做到这一点,你需要一个电池,可以将许多能量装入一个小空间. |
| 205 | Nickel allows the battery to hold a massive charge. | 镍使电池可以承受巨大的电荷. |
| 206 | So more cars means more nickel. | 所以,更多的汽车意味着更多的镍。 |
| 207 | Yes. | 对 |
| 208 | The more EV cars we want, the more nickel we desperately need. | 我们想要的EV车越多,我们迫切需要的镍币就越多. |
| 209 | Finally, let's look at zircon. | 最后,让我们看看Zircon。 |
| 210 | The metal comes from zircon sand, and we call the actual metal zirconium. | 金属来自zir砂,我们称之为实际的金属zir. |
| 211 | The sources say it is used to cover nuclear reactor fuel. | 消息人士说它被用于覆盖核反应堆燃料. |
| 212 | They call this cover cladding. | 他们叫这个盖子 |
| 213 | Think of cladding as a tough protective outer skin. | 想象一下,粉饰是一种坚硬的保护外皮。 |
| 214 | Inside a nuclear power plant, things are very dangerous. | 在核电站里 事情很危险 |
| 215 | Lots of radiation. | 辐射很多 |
| 216 | It is very hot, and there is a lot of radiation. | 它非常热,辐射也很多。 |
| 217 | The nuclear fuel needs to be wrapped safely. | 核燃料需要安全包装。 |
| 218 | Zirconium makes a perfect protective skin. | Zi能制成完美的保护皮肤. |
| 219 | It doesn't break down. | 不生破灭. |
| 220 | It survives the extreme conditions inside the reactor safely. | 它在反应堆内部的极端条件下安全生存. |
| 221 | The sources also note zirconium is used in aerospace parts. | 源头还有注ium用于航空航天部分. |
| 222 | Just like rhenium, it helps parts survive when a rocket gets extremely hot. | 和氦一样,它能帮助零件在火箭变得极度热时存活下来. |
| 223 | When you look at all these metals together, a very clear picture appears. | 当你把这些金属放在一起看时, 一个非常清晰的画面出现了。 |
| 224 | These discoveries are tied directly to the global energy transition. | 这些发现与全球能源转型直接相关。 |
| 225 | You mean the move away from oil and coal, the push for green energy. | 你是说远离石油和煤炭, 推动绿色能源。 |
| 226 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 227 | The world is trying to stop burning oil. | 世界正在试图停止燃烧石油。 |
| 228 | We want millions of electric cars on the road. | 我们要上百万辆电动车 |
| 229 | We want clean nuclear energy. | 我们要清洁核能 |
| 230 | And better space tech. | 还有更好的太空技术 |
| 231 | Yes. | 对 |
| 232 | Without these specific metals, that whole transition simply stops. | 没有这些特定的金属,整个过渡就会停止。 |
| 233 | You cannot build the green future out of wood and plastic. | 你不能用木材和塑料建设绿色的未来。 |
| 234 | You need these critical metals. | 你需要这些关键的金属。 |
| 235 | So they just found massive amounts of these critical metals. | 所以他们发现了大量的这些关键金属。 |
| 236 | They went searching, and they found a treasure chest. | 他们去寻找, 他们发现了一个宝箱。 |
| 237 | Does this mean China is totally safe now? | 这是否意味着中国现在完全安全了? |
| 238 | Many people think so. | 很多人这么认为。 |
| 239 | Here's where it gets really interesting. | 这是真正有趣的。 |
| 240 | People usually think of China as the top producer of critical minerals because of rare earths. | 人们通常认为由于稀土,中国是关键矿物的顶级生产国. |
| 241 | That is a very common belief. | 这是一个非常普遍的看法。 |
| 242 | Right. | 对 |
| 243 | Everyone knows they control the market for rare earth elements. | 每个人都知道他们控制着稀土元素的市场. |
| 244 | And because they control rare earths, people assume they control all the metals. | 由于它们控制稀土,人们假设它们控制了所有的金属. |
| 245 | But the data shows something completely different. | 但数据却显示出完全不同的东西。 |
| 246 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 247 | This brings us to a massive imbalance. | 这给我们带来了巨大的不平衡。 |
| 248 | Despite being rich in rare earths, they have a huge weakness. | 尽管拥有丰富的稀土,但它们有着巨大的弱点. |
| 249 | They consume far more of certain critical minerals than they actually produce. | 它们消耗的某些重要矿物比实际生产要多得多。 |
| 250 | If we connect this to the bigger picture, we see a deep supply chain risk. | 如果我们把这与大局联系起来,我们就会看到供应链的深层风险。 |
| 251 | Let's look at the data from CIECC research. | 让我们看看来自CIECC研究的数据. |
| 252 | The numbers from the year 2025 are surprising. | 2025年的数字令人惊讶。 |
| 253 | Let's start with nickel. | 从镍开始 |
| 254 | China is a giant for building batteries for electric cars. | 中国是制造电动汽车电池的巨人. |
| 255 | They build a lot of them. | 他们造了很多 |
| 256 | But in 2025, they produced only 120,000 tons of nickel themselves. | 但在2025年,他们自己只生产了12万吨镍. |
| 257 | That sounds like a big number to a normal person, but on a global scale, it is tiny. | 这听起来是一个大数字 对于一个正常的人, 但在全球范围内,它是很小的。 |
| 258 | It is only 0.2% of the global output. | 它只占全球产出的0.2%。 |
| 259 | Less than 1%. | 不到百分之一. |
| 260 | Now, compare that to how much they used. | 现在,比较一下他们用了多少。 |
| 261 | In that same year, they consumed 2.36 million tons of nickel. | 同年,他们消耗了236万吨镍. |
| 262 | That is over 65% of the entire global demand. | 这占全球需求的65%以上。 |
| 263 | Let me get this straight. | 让我说清楚 |
| 264 | You run the world's biggest battery factories. | 你经营着世界上最大的电池厂 |
| 265 | But you produce less than 1% of the key ingredient. | 但你的产量不到关键成分的1%. |
| 266 | And you use over 65% of the world's supply. | 你使用超过65%的世界供给。 |
| 267 | It is like running the world's largest bakery, | 这就像经营世界最大的面包店, |
| 268 | but you have to buy almost all your flour from someone else. | 但你得从别人那里买到几乎所有的面粉 |
| 269 | That is a great way to think about it. | 这是一个很好的思考方法。 |
| 270 | And it shows you how weak the system actually is. | 它显示系统是多么的薄弱。 |
| 271 | Very weak. | 非常虚弱。 |
| 272 | They are building millions of electric cars. | 他们正在建造数百万辆电动汽车。 |
| 273 | But to keep those factories running, | 但为了让这些工厂继续运转 |
| 274 | they must buy massive amounts of nickel from other countries every single day. | 他们必须每天从其他国家购买大量镍币。 |
| 275 | The story is very similar for zirconium. | 故事对于 来说非常相似. |
| 276 | China made 60,000 tons of zirconium last year. | 中国去年制造了6万吨con. |
| 277 | But the rest of the world made 4.5 million tons. | 但世界其他地方的产量为450万吨. |
| 278 | The math there is also very bad for them. | 数学对他们来说也是非常不好的。 |
| 279 | It means China relies on other countries for 97.2% of its zirconium. | 这意味着中国的zir的97.2%依靠其他国家. |
| 280 | Almost 100%. | 几乎100%。 |
| 281 | Yes. | 对 |
| 282 | They have to import almost every single piece they use. | 他们几乎必须进口他们使用的每一个部件。 |
| 283 | And the data shows they are importing more and more. | 数据显示,它们进口的数量越来越多。 |
| 284 | In 2025, their imports of zirconium products hit 2.14 million tons. | 2025年,其进口的ium产品达到214万吨. |
| 285 | And that need is speeding up fast. | 这需要加快速度 |
| 286 | In just the first nine months of this year, | 今年头九个月 |
| 287 | they already reached 1.87 million tons of imports. | 它们已经达到187万吨进口。 |
| 288 | So this exposes a massive weak spot in their economy. | 因此,这暴露了他们经济中一个巨大的弱点。 |
| 289 | A critical weak spot. | 一个关键的弱点。 |
| 290 | Think about our scenario from the beginning of the deep dive. | 从深潜开始考虑我们的情况 |
| 291 | Imagine if global trade faces a major problem. | 想象一下如果全球贸易面临一个重大问题。 |
| 292 | Like trade routes freezing. | 像贸易路线冻结。 |
| 293 | Right. | 对 |
| 294 | Imagine if a conflict blocks the main shipping routes in the ocean. | 想象一下,如果一场冲突封锁了海洋的主要航线。 |
| 295 | The ships stop coming. | 船停下来了 |
| 296 | If the ships stop, their factories run out of these metals almost immediately. | 如果船只停下来,他们的工厂几乎马上用完这些金属。 |
| 297 | Without nickel, the battery factories stop working. | 没有镍,电池厂就停止工作. |
| 298 | And without batteries, the car factories shut down. | 没有电池,汽车工厂就关闭了. |
| 299 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 300 | Thousands of workers go home. | 数以千计的工人回家. |
| 301 | The economic hit would be terrible. | 经济打击将是可怕的。 |
| 302 | That explains the treasure hunt. | 这也是寻宝的原因 |
| 303 | Going back to those 1800 old mines isn't just about making extra money. | 回到那1800年的旧矿山 不只是赚钱 |
| 304 | No. | 没有 |
| 305 | It is much bigger. | 还要大得多 |
| 306 | It is a matter of pure national security. | 这是纯粹的国家安全问题。 |
| 307 | They need these metals inside their own borders | 他们需要这些金属 在他们自己的边界内 |
| 308 | to protect their factories from global shocks. | 保护工厂免受全球冲击。 |
| 309 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 310 | They're trying to build a shield around their economy. | 他们试图围绕经济建立盾牌. |
| 311 | Well, they just announced these massive new discoveries. | 他们刚刚宣布了这些大规模的新发现。 |
| 312 | They found millions of tons of resources in the ground. | 他们在当地发现了数百万吨的资源. |
| 313 | They found all that new zircon in Xinjiang. | 他们在新疆发现了所有的新齐尔康. |
| 314 | Yes, they did. | 是的,他们做到了。 |
| 315 | So problem solved, right? | 所以问题解决了,对吧? |
| 316 | The shield is built? | 盾牌是盖的? |
| 317 | Not quite. | 没有 |
| 318 | We need to be very careful here. | 我们需要非常小心这里。 |
| 319 | Finding a mineral hidden in the ground | 找到隐藏在地下的矿物 |
| 320 | does not mean you can magically move it into a factory. | 这并不意味着你可以神奇地把它搬进工厂。 |
| 321 | It is time for a reality check. | 现在是检查现实的时候了。 |
| 322 | We need to compare what is in the ground with what works in the market. | 我们需要把地面上的东西和市场里的东西进行比较。 |
| 323 | For this, we look at the report from Argus. | 为此,我们看看阿尔格斯的报告. |
| 324 | The price tracking group? | 价格追踪组? |
| 325 | Right. | 对 |
| 326 | Argus studies how much raw materials actually cost in the real world. | 阿尔古斯研究了原材料在现实世界中的实际成本. |
| 327 | And Argus gave a very strong warning about these new discoveries. | 而阿尔格斯对这些新的发现给出了非常强烈的警告. |
| 328 | They looked specifically at the new zircon find in Xinjiang, didn't they? | 他们专门查看了新疆的新发现,不是吗? |
| 329 | Yes. | 对 |
| 330 | They pointed out a major problem. | 他们指出一个重大问题。 |
| 331 | It is still entirely unclear how much of this new zircon | 现在还不清楚这个新齐尔康多少钱 |
| 332 | can be economically extracted. | 可以进行经济开采。 |
| 333 | Let's explain that phrase. | 让我们解释一下这句话。 |
| 334 | Economically extracted. | 经济开采。 |
| 335 | It basically means the metal has to be cheap enough to dig up, right? | 基本上意味着金属必须足够便宜 挖出来,对不对? |
| 336 | Yes. | 对 |
| 337 | Like the mining company still has to make a profit at the end of the day. | 如矿业公司最终仍须盈利. |
| 338 | Right. | 对 |
| 339 | You can know a valuable metal is locked inside a mountain. | 你可以知道一个有价值的金属 锁在山里。 |
| 340 | You cannot get it out for free. | 你不能免费取出来。 |
| 341 | You have to pay hundreds of workers. | 须付百千工人. |
| 342 | You have to buy massive trucks. | 你得买大卡车 |
| 343 | You burn thousands of gallons of fuel. | 你烧了几千加仑的燃料 |
| 344 | You use massive amounts of electricity to crush the rock. | 你用大量电力压碎岩石 |
| 345 | I like to picture it like finding a locked treasure chest at the bottom of the ocean. | 我喜欢想象它在海底找到一个锁着的宝箱 |
| 346 | You know for a fact there is one million dollars of gold inside the chest. | 胸膛里有一百万的黄金 |
| 347 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 348 | A million dollars. | 一百万钱. |
| 349 | But to get it, you have to rent a deep sea submarine. | 但是要得到它, 你必须租一艘深海潜艇。 |
| 350 | And renting the submarine costs two million dollars. | 而租借潜艇则耗资200万美元. |
| 351 | Right. | 对 |
| 352 | I see where you're going. | 我看见你要去哪里。 |
| 353 | So what do you do? | 那你怎么办? |
| 354 | You just leave the gold at the bottom of the ocean. | 你只是把黄金留在海底 |
| 355 | That submarine analogy perfectly explains the mining industry. | 这个潜艇类比完全解释了采矿业。 |
| 356 | If the cost of the process is higher than the value of the metal, | 如果工艺的成本高于金属的价值, |
| 357 | the mine stays closed. | 矿井关闭。 |
| 358 | The metal just stays in the ground. | 金属留在地上 |
| 359 | And remember how they found these new metals? | 还记得他们是怎么找到这些新金属的吗? |
| 360 | We talked about it earlier. | 我们之前谈过了 |
| 361 | They went back to old mines and looked at low grade deposits. | 他们回到了旧矿山,查看了低级矿床. |
| 362 | This is where the cost becomes a huge issue. | 这就是成本成为一个大问题的地方。 |
| 363 | Low grade means you have to move mountains of useless dirt | 低年级意味着你必须移走一堆没用的泥土 |
| 364 | just to find a handful of metal. | 只是为了找到一些金属。 |
| 365 | That sounds expensive. | 听起来很贵 |
| 366 | It is. | 没错 |
| 367 | You spend huge amounts of money running those crushers and burning that fuel, | 你花巨资 运行这些粉碎机 并燃烧燃料, |
| 368 | but you get very little product out of it. | 但你从中得到的产品很少。 |
| 369 | They also found materials in difficult to extract areas. | 他们还在难以提取的地区发现了材料。 |
| 370 | This means it might require expensive new chemicals or complex machines | 这意味着它可能需要昂贵的新化学品 或复杂的机器 |
| 371 | just to loosen the metal from the rock. | 只是为了把石头上的金属松开 |
| 372 | Because of these high costs, Argus warns us to manage our expectations. | 由于这些高昂的成本,阿尔古斯警告我们管理我们的期望. |
| 373 | Finding the resource is a great first step. | 找到资源是伟大的第一步。 |
| 374 | But it is only a first step. | 但这只是第一步。 |
| 375 | Right. | 对 |
| 376 | It is incredibly hard to know right now if these discoveries | 现在很难知道这些发现 |
| 377 | will actually solve the import problem. | 将实际解决导入问题。 |
| 378 | We do not know yet if this will actually reduce China's need | 现在还不知道这是否会减少中国的需求 |
| 379 | to buy nickel and zircon from other countries. | 从其他国家购买镍和 。 |
| 380 | It sounds like a massive waiting game. | 听起来像是一场巨大的等待游戏 |
| 381 | The government found the rocks, but now the accountants have to step in. | 政府发现了岩石,但现在会计师必须介入。 |
| 382 | It will take a lot of time. | 这需要很多时间。 |
| 383 | Mining companies have to do the hard math. | 矿业公司必须做硬数学。 |
| 384 | They have to see if digging up these difficult low-grade deposits | 他们得看看有没有挖出这些难得的低档存款 |
| 385 | makes any sense for their budget. | 这对他们的预算来说是完全合理的。 |
| 386 | What if global prices drop? | 如果全球价格下跌呢? |
| 387 | If global prices for these metals are low, | 如果这些金属的全球价格很低, |
| 388 | it might still be cheaper for China to just buy them from abroad, | 如果中国从国外买下来 可能还是比较便宜 |
| 389 | even if they have some in their own backyard. | 即使他们有自己的后院。 |
| 390 | So discovering the resources is fantastic for their national pride. | 因此,发现资源 对他们民族自豪是惊人的。 |
| 391 | It looks great on paper. | 纸上看起来不错 |
| 392 | But having those metals refined and ready for an electric car battery | 但要提炼这些金属 准备好电动汽车电池 |
| 393 | is a completely different challenge. | 这是一个完全不同的挑战。 |
| 394 | The rocks are in the ground. | 石头在地. |
| 395 | But the supply chain risk is still very real. | 但供应链的风险仍然非常真实。 |
| 396 | We have covered a huge amount of ground today. | 我们今天覆盖了大量地面。 |
| 397 | Let's do a quick wrap-up of what we learned in this deep dive. | 让我们快速总结一下我们在本次深度潜水中学到的知识. |
| 398 | Sounds good. | 听起来不错 |
| 399 | China knows the future is going to require massive amounts of critical metals. | 中国知道未来需要大量的关键金属。 |
| 400 | They know global trade is getting tense. | 他们知道全球贸易越来越紧张。 |
| 401 | So they took action. | 于是他们采取了行动。 |
| 402 | They went back to over 1,800 old mines and looked in the difficult spots. | 他们回到了1800多座旧矿山,在困难的地方寻找. |
| 403 | They found incredible amounts of vital resources. | 他们发现了数量惊人的重要资源。 |
| 404 | They doubled their rhenium. | 他们的红外线翻了一番 |
| 405 | Yes, they found massive amounts of gold and nickel. | 是的,他们发现了大量的黄金和镍。 |
| 406 | And they discovered a giant new zircon deposit in Xinjiang. | 他们又在新疆发现了一个巨大的新 储金. |
| 407 | These are the exact metals needed to build electric cars, | 这些是制造电动汽车所需的金属 |
| 408 | nuclear reactors, and advanced space tech. | 核反应堆和先进的空间技术。 |
| 409 | But we also saw the giant hole in their supply chain. | 但我们也看到了他们供应链中的巨大漏洞。 |
| 410 | Right. | 对 |
| 411 | They might build most of the world's EV batteries, | 他们可能会建造世界上大部分的EV电池, |
| 412 | but they sit on less than 1% of the world's nickel supply. | 但是它们占世界镍产量的不到1% |
| 413 | They rely on imports for over 97% of their zirconium. | 它们依赖97%以上的进口。 |
| 414 | They are deeply vulnerable if trade stops. | 如果贸易停止,它们就非常脆弱。 |
| 415 | That is why they are searching so hard at home. | 因此,他们在家里寻找如此艰难。 |
| 416 | But the final reality check is the cost. | 但最后的真象检查是成本。 |
| 417 | Just because you find low-grade metal in the dirt doesn't mean you can cheaply dig it up. | 在泥土中发现低级金属并不意味着你可以便宜地挖出来. |
| 418 | The gap between what they need and what they can economically extract is still a massive problem. | 他们需要的与经济上能够提取的之间的差距仍然是一个巨大的问题。 |
| 419 | This raises an important question for you to think about. | 这引起了你考虑的一个重要问题。 |
| 420 | We are watching China work incredibly hard to secure its own metals. | 我们正看着中国为保障自己的金属 付出巨大的努力。 |
| 421 | But they are not the only ones doing this. | 但并非只有他们这样做。 |
| 422 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 423 | Many major countries are trying to do the exact same thing right now. | 许多大国正在试图采取同样的做法。 |
| 424 | Everyone wants to mine their own backyard. | 人人都想自己去后院 |
| 425 | Yes. | 对 |
| 426 | So if every major country decides they must mine their own critical minerals to feel secure, | 所以,如果每个大国决定 他们必须开采自己的 关键矿物 感到安全, |
| 427 | what happens to global trade? | 全球贸易会怎么样? |
| 428 | That is a great question. | 问得好 |
| 429 | Will the push for total self-reliance bring countries together? | 推动完全自力更生能否使各国团结起来? |
| 430 | Or push them further apart? | 还是把他们分开? |
| 431 | Will it create isolated resource blocks? | 它会创建孤立的资源块吗 ? |
| 432 | It is a fascinating problem for you to mull over. | 这是一个令人着迷的问题 你搅拌过。 |
| 433 | The race for these hidden metals is literally reshaping the world economy. | 争夺这些隐藏的金属的竞赛 正在重新塑造世界经济。 |
| 434 | Thank you for joining us for this Deep Dive. | 谢谢你加入我们的深渊之旅 |
| 435 | Keep questioning the supply chains around you and we will catch you next time. | 继续质疑你周围的供应链 我们下次会抓住你 |
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