中国狂买美国大豆，却对170亿美元农产品按兵不动：卡在哪一个
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Imagine $17 billion just sitting on a table. | 想象一下170亿美元只是坐在桌子上。 |
| 0:04 | Wow, that is a lot of money. | 哇,这是一大笔钱。 |
| 0:07 | Right, and it is completely frozen. | 对,它完全冻僵了 |
| 0:09 | Like nobody wants to make the first move. | 就像没人想先行动一样 |
| 0:11 | Yeah, it really is a fascinating situation. | 是啊,这真的是一个迷人的情况。 |
| 0:14 | So today we are taking a deep dive | 所以今天我们要下潜 |
| 0:16 | into a massive trade deal. | 成为大规模交易 |
| 0:17 | This is between the US and China. | 这是美国和中国之间的事。 |
| 0:19 | And China's buying American soybeans at record speed. | 而中国以创纪录的速度收购美国大豆. |
| 0:22 | Like they are loading cargo ships every single day. | 就像他们每天都在装货船 |
展开字幕全文（414 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imagine $17 billion just sitting on a table. | 想象一下170亿美元只是坐在桌子上。 |
| 2 | Wow, that is a lot of money. | 哇,这是一大笔钱。 |
| 3 | Right, and it is completely frozen. | 对,它完全冻僵了 |
| 4 | Like nobody wants to make the first move. | 就像没人想先行动一样 |
| 5 | Yeah, it really is a fascinating situation. | 是啊,这真的是一个迷人的情况。 |
| 6 | So today we are taking a deep dive | 所以今天我们要下潜 |
| 7 | into a massive trade deal. | 成为大规模交易 |
| 8 | This is between the US and China. | 这是美国和中国之间的事。 |
| 9 | And China's buying American soybeans at record speed. | 而中国以创纪录的速度收购美国大豆. |
| 10 | Like they are loading cargo ships every single day. | 就像他们每天都在装货船 |
| 11 | Right, but they are aggressively ignoring | 对,但他们很不理会 |
| 12 | billions in other farm goods. | 数十亿其他农货 |
| 13 | The money is just sitting there. | 钱就坐在那里 |
| 14 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 15 | The trade deal is just, well, it's completely stuck. | 交易是完全卡住了 |
| 16 | It is a huge contradiction. | 这是一个巨大的矛盾。 |
| 17 | And we are pulling insights from a recent | 我们从最近 |
| 18 | South China Morning Post article today. | 南华早报今日文章. |
| 19 | It came out on November 6th, 2026. | 于2026年11月6日发售. |
| 20 | And our mission today is for you to figure out | 我们今天的任务就是让你明白 |
| 21 | why this deal is frozen. | 为什么这个交易被冻结。 |
| 22 | Yes, we want to understand the exact condition | 是的,我们想知道确切的情况 |
| 23 | China is demanding and also, you know, | 中国要求,而且,你知道, |
| 24 | explore how local politics are suddenly changing things. | 探索地方政治如何突然改变事物. |
| 25 | So the numbers in this report are just staggering. | 因此,本报告中的数字非常惊人。 |
| 26 | We are not talking about small trade disputes here. | 我们这里不是在谈论小的贸易争端。 |
| 27 | No, not at all. | 不,一点也不。 |
| 28 | We are talking about the entire farming relationship | 我们说的是整个农耕关系 |
| 29 | between the two biggest economies. | 两个最大的经济体之间 |
| 30 | Right, and right now that relationship depends | 对,而现在 关系取决于 |
| 31 | on one very specific condition. | 一个非常具体的条件 |
| 32 | So what exactly is that condition? | 那到底是什么情况? |
| 33 | Well, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce | 嗯,中国商务部 |
| 34 | held a press briefing on Thursday. | 星期四举行了新闻发布会。 |
| 35 | A spokeswoman named Huang Ling spoke to the public. | 一位名叫黄玲的女发言人对公众发表演讲. |
| 36 | Okay, and what did she say? | 好吧,她说什么? |
| 37 | She made their position super clear. | 她让他们的立场非常清楚 |
| 38 | She said, China is totally open | 她说中国是完全开放的 |
| 39 | to buying more American farm products. | 买更多的美国农产品。 |
| 40 | I mean, they have the money, right? | 我的意思是,他们有钱,对不对? |
| 41 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 42 | They have the money and they have the demand, | 他们有钱,他们有需求, |
| 43 | but they are holding back. | 但他们在犹豫不决 |
| 44 | Because they have this one major prerequisite. | 因为他们有一个重要的先决条件。 |
| 45 | Yes, China is demanding reciprocal tariff cuts. | 是的,中国要求相互削减关税。 |
| 46 | Right, and they want these cuts to cover | 是的,他们希望这些削减覆盖 |
| 47 | $30 billion worth of products on both sides. | 双方产品价值300亿元. |
| 48 | Yeah, so let us break that down for you. | 是啊,所以让我们打破 为你。 |
| 49 | A tariff is basically a border tax. | 关税基本上是边税. |
| 50 | Right, governments use them to protect local businesses. | 对,政府用它们保护当地企业 |
| 51 | They just make foreign goods more expensive. | 它们只会让外国商品更昂贵. |
| 52 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 53 | And China wants to remove these barriers, | 中国希望消除这些障碍 |
| 54 | but reciprocal means both sides | 但互惠意味着双方 |
| 55 | have to do the exact same thing. | 必须做同样的事情。 |
| 56 | The perfectly exact same thing. | 完全一样的东西。 |
| 57 | The U.S. must drop its border taxes by $30 billion. | 美国必须削减边境税300亿美元. |
| 58 | And China must drop its taxes by $30 billion too. | 而中国也必须减税300亿美元. |
| 59 | It has to be totally equal. | 它必须完全平等。 |
| 60 | Right, and China wants this done | 是的,中国希望这样做 |
| 61 | through a specific channel. | 通过一个特定的通道。 |
| 62 | They want it under the U.S.-China Board of Trade. | 他们想要在美中贸易委员会下 |
| 63 | Yeah, so let us trace the timeline for this board. | 是啊,让我们追踪这个董事会的时间表。 |
| 64 | It is actually a pretty new idea. | 这其实是一个相当新的想法。 |
| 65 | President Xi Jinping visited the U.S. back in September. | 习近平主席9月回访美国. |
| 66 | It was a massive diplomatic event. | 这是一个大规模的外交活动。 |
| 67 | And following that visit, | 那次访问之后 |
| 68 | both governments announced this new board of trade. | 两国政府都宣布了这个新的贸易理事会。 |
| 69 | And they sat down and made a formal list of goods. | 他们坐下来,正式列出货物清单。 |
| 70 | Right, they agreed on the $30 billion target. | 是的,他们同意300亿美元的目标。 |
| 71 | The framework was totally set. | 框架已经完全确定。 |
| 72 | The diplomatic handshakes happened. | 外交握手事件发生. |
| 73 | Public announcements were made. | 已公布。 |
| 74 | But then, you know, the process just stopped. | 但是,你知道,这个过程刚刚停止了。 |
| 75 | Yeah, the lower taxes never actually started. | 是啊,低税实际上从来没有开始。 |
| 76 | Right, neither government took the final step | 对,政府都没有迈出最后一步 |
| 77 | to make the cuts official. | 使切割成为正式的。 |
| 78 | This situation really reminds me of two neighbors. | 这让我想起两个邻居 |
| 79 | Imagine they share this long, heavy wooden fence. | 想象一下,他们有这么长的木栅栏 |
| 80 | Okay, I can picture that. | 好吧,我可以想象出来。 |
| 81 | They both agree to take the fence down. | 他们都同意拆除围栏. |
| 82 | They want one big open yard. | 他们想要一个大庭院 |
| 83 | But neither person wants to pull out the first piece of wood. | 但没人想拔出第一块木头 |
| 84 | Oh, that is a really accurate comparison. | 哦,这是一个非常准确的比较。 |
| 85 | Because, like, if I take my side of the fence down first, | 因为,喜欢,如果我 把我的侧 栅栏先下来, |
| 86 | my neighbor might change his mind. | 我的邻居可能会改变主意 |
| 87 | Right, he might leave his part up. | 是的,他可能会放弃他的一部分。 |
| 88 | Exactly, then I lose my privacy, | 没错,然后我失去了隐私, |
| 89 | I lose my protection, and I just look foolish. | 我失去了我的保护, 我只是看起来愚蠢。 |
| 90 | So you both just stand there in the yard. | 所以你们俩就站在院子里 |
| 91 | You just stare at the fence. | 你只是盯着围栏。 |
| 92 | Right, nothing happens. | 对,没事 |
| 93 | This is a classic problem in international relations. | 这是国际关系中的一个经典问题。 |
| 94 | It is basically a problem of sequencing. | 这基本上是一个排序问题。 |
| 95 | Because nobody wants to drop their defenses first. | 因为没人想先放弃他们的防御 |
| 96 | Yeah, removing border taxes can cause local political problems. | 是的,取消边境税 会导致当地的政治问题。 |
| 97 | Local factory owners might get mad. | 当地厂主可能会生气 |
| 98 | Farmers might protest. | 农民可能会抗议。 |
| 99 | Governments want to show their citizens a clear victory. | 各国政府希望向公民展示明确的胜利。 |
| 100 | Exactly, they want to say, well, we cut our taxes, | 没错 他们想说 我们减税了 |
| 101 | but only because they cut theirs at the exact same moment. | 但只是因为他们在同一个时刻割了他们的 |
| 102 | So they're at a total standstill on these tax cuts. | 所以他们在减税方面完全停滞不前。 |
| 103 | The fence is still up. | 栅栏还在 |
| 104 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 105 | But if you look at the actual shipping ledgers right now, | 但是,如果你看看 真正的货运分类账现在, |
| 106 | you see a glaring contradiction. | 你可以看到一个明显的矛盾。 |
| 107 | The cargo ships are still leaving American ports. | 货轮仍在离开美国港口. |
| 108 | Trade has not stopped entirely, | 贸易并没有完全停止, |
| 109 | but the boats are almost totally filled with just one thing. | 但船上几乎满满只有一件事 |
| 110 | 大豆ans. | |
| 111 | Exactly, lots and lots of soybeans. | 没错,好多豆子 |
| 112 | Let us look at the details the White House gave us. | 让我们看看白宫给我们的细节。 |
| 113 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 114 | China made two separate promises for American agriculture. | 中国为美国农业分别作出了两项承诺. |
| 115 | The first promise was about soybeans. | 第一个承诺是关于大豆的. |
| 116 | Right, China agreed to buy at least 25 million tons | 对,中国同意至少买2500万吨 |
| 117 | of U.S. soybeans. | 美国大豆。 |
| 118 | And they promised to buy that massive amount | 他们答应买这么多钱 |
| 119 | every single year, all the way until 2028. | 每年,直到2028年。 |
| 120 | That is a huge long-term commitment. | 这是一个巨大的长期承诺。 |
| 121 | I mean, it guarantees steady income | 我的意思是,它保证稳定的收入 |
| 122 | for American soybean farmers. | 为美国大豆的农民。 |
| 123 | But they also made a second promise. | 但他们也做出了第二个承诺。 |
| 124 | China promised to buy an extra $17 billion | 中国答应再买170亿美元 |
| 125 | in other American farm products. | 其他美国农产品。 |
| 126 | Yes, those numbers are adjusted for this year, 2026. | 是的,这些数字是今年2026年调整的。 |
| 127 | So we basically have two separate buckets. | 所以我们基本上有两个独立的桶。 |
| 128 | One bucket is soybeans. | 一桶为大豆. |
| 129 | The other bucket is everything else. | 另一桶就是其他东西 |
| 130 | And those two buckets are behaving | 那两个水桶很厉害 |
| 131 | very differently right now. | 非常不同 现在。 |
| 132 | Yeah, the South China Morning Post article | 是啊,南华早报的文章 |
| 133 | quotes an anonymous agricultural trader. | 引用一位匿名农业商人的话。 |
| 134 | Right, and this trader gave us | 对 这位商人给了我们 |
| 135 | a really clear view of the market. | 一个非常清楚的市场。 |
| 136 | The soybean purchases are moving incredibly fast. | 大豆的购买速度非常之快 |
| 137 | The trader noted that China has already reached | 商人指出,中国已经达到了 |
| 138 | 70% of this year's soybean target. | 今年大豆指标的70%. |
| 139 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 140 | And the year's not even over yet. | 而年未终. |
| 141 | They are buying the beans aggressively. | 他们正在大肆购买这些豆子。 |
| 142 | If they keep up this pace, | 如果他们跟上这个速度 |
| 143 | they will easily hit that 25 million ton goal. | 他们很容易打中2500万吨的进球 |
| 144 | So the soybean bucket is completely full. | 所以大豆桶是完全满的. |
| 145 | But the second bucket is almost entirely empty. | 但第二桶几乎是空的。 |
| 146 | Yeah, there is virtually no progress | 是啊,几乎没有进展 |
| 147 | on the extra $17 billion. | 在额外的170亿美元。 |
| 148 | That money is just frozen. | 钱被冻结了 |
| 149 | The trade of those other goods has stopped cold. | 其他货物的贸易已经停止。 |
| 150 | And the anonymous trader believes China | 匿名商人相信中国 |
| 151 | is intentionally pausing these purchases. | 故意剥夺这些购买。 |
| 152 | Right, they are waiting for those $30 billion tax cuts. | 他们正等着减税300亿美元 |
| 153 | They will not buy the other goods | 他们不会买其他商品的 |
| 154 | until Washington lowers the taxes. | 直到华盛顿降低税收。 |
| 155 | Which brings us to a major strategic question. | 这让我们想到一个重大的战略问题。 |
| 156 | Yeah, because I have to push back on Beijing's logic here. | 是啊,因为我不得不推回 北京的逻辑在这里。 |
| 157 | This strategy seems completely flawed to me. | 这个策略对我来说是完全有缺陷的 |
| 158 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 159 | Well, if China is angry about border taxes, | 如果中国对边境税很生气 |
| 160 | they should just stop buying everything. | 他们应该停止购买一切。 |
| 161 | Right. | 对 |
| 162 | You do not keep buying millions of tons of soybeans. | 你不能再买上百万吨的大豆了 |
| 163 | You should use the soybeans as your main leverage. | 你应该用大豆作为主要杠杆. |
| 164 | Why give up your biggest bargaining chip? | 为什么放弃你最大的筹码? |
| 165 | It looks like a contradiction, for sure. | 这看起来很矛盾,当然。 |
| 166 | But you have to look closely at China's domestic needs. | 但你必须仔细研究中国的国内需求. |
| 167 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 168 | Soybeans are not just a simple commodity to them. | 大豆对他们来说不仅仅是一种简单的商品。 |
| 169 | They actually represent national security. | 他们实际上代表着国家安全。 |
| 170 | Because of the pork industry, right? | 因为猪肉行业,对不对? |
| 171 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 172 | China has a massive domestic pork industry. | 中国有大规模的国内猪肉产业. |
| 173 | Pork is the primary meat for over a billion people. | 猪肉是十亿多人的主要肉类. |
| 174 | And pigs need to eat. | 而猪须食. |
| 175 | They eat soybean meal. | 他们吃大豆饭。 |
| 176 | Yes. | 对 |
| 177 | Yes, you cannot pause feeding animals. | 是的,你不能停止喂养动物。 |
| 178 | If you stop buying U.S. soybeans, | 如果你不再买美国大豆 |
| 179 | your domestic pigs go hungry. | 你的家猪饿了。 |
| 180 | And then the farmers cannot raise the pigs. | 然后农民不能养猪。 |
| 181 | The supply of meat drops. | 供养肉滴. |
| 182 | Right. | 对 |
| 183 | And when the supply drops, | 当供给减少时, |
| 184 | the price of pork goes up very fast. | 猪肉价格涨得很快 |
| 185 | Inexpensive food leads to angry citizens. | 昂贵的食物导致愤怒的公民. |
| 186 | When food prices rise, people complain to the government. | 当粮食价格上涨时,人们向政府抱怨. |
| 187 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 188 | Domestic stability is always the first priority | 国内稳定始终是第一优先事项 |
| 189 | for any national leadership. | 国家领导人。 |
| 190 | So they cannot risk a food shortage. | 因此,他们不能冒粮食短缺的风险。 |
| 191 | They cannot risk inflation at the grocery store. | 他们不能冒通货膨胀的风险 在杂货店。 |
| 192 | No, they must keep buying the soybeans. | 不,他们必须继续买大豆 |
| 193 | They need them right now. | 他们需要他们现在。 |
| 194 | Trade wars are secondary to feeding the population. | 贸易战争是供养人口的次要手段。 |
| 195 | Okay, that explains the soybeans. | 好吧,这解释了大豆。 |
| 196 | They are an absolute necessity. | 它们是绝对必要的。 |
| 197 | But the other $17 billion represents products | 但另外170亿美元是产品 |
| 198 | they can easily delay. | 他们很容易拖延。 |
| 199 | Things like dairy or nuts or specific grains. | 奶制品、坚果、谷类 |
| 200 | They can just wait for those. | 他们可以等这些。 |
| 201 | Yes. | 对 |
| 202 | So they freeze the second bucket to create pressure. | 所以他们冻结了第二桶来制造压力. |
| 203 | But the U.S. is not rushing to cut the taxes either. | 但美国也不急于削减税收. |
| 204 | Washington is also waiting. | 华盛顿也在等待。 |
| 205 | And this brings us to a huge political complication. | 这给我们带来了一个巨大的政治复杂问题。 |
| 206 | The timing of this entire deal is suddenly very difficult. | 整个交易的时机突然非常困难. |
| 207 | Yeah, domestic politics are throwing | 是啊,国内政治是扔 |
| 208 | a massive wrench into this agreement. | 一个巨大的扳手 在这个协议。 |
| 209 | The U.S. just held its midterm elections this week. | 美国本周刚刚举行了中期选举. |
| 210 | Right. | 对 |
| 211 | And we are just reporting the political facts here. | 我们只是在这里报道政治事实。 |
| 212 | We do not take sides. | 我们不偏袒一方。 |
| 213 | Absolutely not. | 绝对不是。 |
| 214 | But we must analyze how these election results | 但是我们必须分析这些选举结果 |
| 215 | change the trade environment. | 改变贸易环境。 |
| 216 | The Democratic Party won a landslide victory | 民主党赢得了滑坡胜利 |
| 217 | in these midterms. | 在这些中期。 |
| 218 | They won by a very wide margin. | 他们以非常大的比例获胜。 |
| 219 | Yeah, they gained a significant amount | 是的,他们赚了很多钱 |
| 220 | of political power in the government. | 政府的政治权力。 |
| 221 | And analysts say this election result | 分析师说这个选举结果 |
| 222 | creates deep uncertainty for Beijing. | 给北京带来深刻的不确定性. |
| 223 | Because the Trump administration agreed to this trade | 因为川普政府同意这次交易 |
| 224 | board back in September, they made the promises. | 在9月的董事会, 他们做出了承诺。 |
| 225 | But now they just lost a major domestic election. | 但现在他们刚刚输了一场国内大选举。 |
| 226 | So Beijing is watching these results very closely. | 因此,北京正在非常密切地观看这些结果. |
| 227 | Right. | 对 |
| 228 | They are asking a logical question. | 他们问了一个合乎逻辑的问题。 |
| 229 | Does the current U.S. administration still | 美国现任政府是否仍然 |
| 230 | have the political power to enforce this deal? | 是否有政治权力来实施这项交易? |
| 231 | Can they actually pass the necessary laws? | 他们真的能通过必要的法律吗? |
| 232 | Can they convince the rest of the government | 他们能说服政府其他成员吗? |
| 233 | to cut those border taxes? | 削减边境税? |
| 234 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 235 | If the other political party now controls | 如果另一个政党现在控制 |
| 236 | important parts of the government, maybe they cannot. | 政府的重要部分,也许他们不能。 |
| 237 | International agreements require deep trust. | 国际协定需要深深的信任。 |
| 238 | You must believe the other side can actually | 你一定相信对方可以 |
| 239 | deliver what they promised. | 交付他们所应许的。 |
| 240 | Going back to your fence analogy. | 回到你的栅栏类比。 |
| 241 | Right. | 对 |
| 242 | If my neighbor suddenly loses his job, | 如果我的邻居突然失业了 |
| 243 | I might not trust him to split the cost of a new fence. | 我可能不相信他能分担新栅栏的费用 |
| 244 | Yeah, you might wait before you start tearing down the wood. | 是啊,你可能会等待 之前,你开始撕掉的木材。 |
| 245 | And this uncertainty is happening | 而这种不确定性正在发生 |
| 246 | at the worst possible time. | 在最糟糕的时候 |
| 247 | The pressure is very high right now. | 现在压力很大 |
| 248 | Why is the timing so urgent? | 为什么时间这么紧迫? |
| 249 | Because the upcoming APEC summit. | 因为即将举行的亚太经合组织首脑会议。 |
| 250 | Right. | 对 |
| 251 | APEC stands for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. | 亚太经合组织代表亚太经济合作组织。 |
| 252 | It is a massive meeting for world leaders. | 这是世界领导人的一次大规模会议。 |
| 253 | And it is happening later this month. | 本月晚些时候将发生这种情况。 |
| 254 | ┮Τ | |
| 255 | in the same room very soon. | 很快在同一间屋子里 |
| 256 | They need to sit down and talk about this frozen deal. | 他们需要坐下来谈谈这个冻结的交易。 |
| 257 | But the political ground under them is suddenly very shaky. | 但是,他们下面的政治基础突然非常不稳定。 |
| 258 | The trust is just broken. | 信任刚刚破灭。 |
| 259 | And because the political situation is so confusing, | 因为政局混乱 |
| 260 | we are seeing some strange behavior from Beijing. | 我们从北京看到一些奇怪的行为 |
| 261 | Yeah, they are sending very mixed signals to Washington. | 对,他们向华盛顿发送的信号很复杂 |
| 262 | They are basically showing two different faces | 他们基本上表现出两个不同的面孔 |
| 263 | at the exact same time. | 在同一时间 |
| 264 | One face is friendly and cooperative. | 一张脸是友好合作的。 |
| 265 | And the other face is very strict and punishing. | 而另一面相则非常严苛和惩罚. |
| 266 | Let us look at what they actually did this week. | 让我们看看他们本周做了什么。 |
| 267 | Let us start with the friendly face. | 让我们从友好的面孔开始。 |
| 268 | On Monday, a major meeting happened. | 星期一,举行了一次重要会议。 |
| 269 | China's international trade representative | 中国国际贸易代表 |
| 270 | met with an American agricultural delegation. | 会见了美国农业代表团。 |
| 271 | Right. | 对 |
| 272 | A group of American farm experts went to China. | 美国农场专家团赴中国. |
| 273 | They sat down with a man named Li Chenggang. | 他们和一个叫李成刚的人坐下. |
| 274 | He is a very influential person in these trade talks. | 他是这些贸易谈判中非常有影响力的人。 |
| 275 | He is a heavy hitter for Beijing. | 他是北京的重击手 |
| 276 | The Chinese ministry released a statement about this meeting. | 中国部委就这次会议发表声明. |
| 277 | They said the two sides talked about trade relations. | 他们说双方谈贸易关系. |
| 278 | And they discussed working together in agricultural trade. | 他们讨论了在农业贸易中合作的问题。 |
| 279 | It was a very positive message. | 这是一个非常积极的信息。 |
| 280 | Yeah, it sounds like a nice, friendly conversation. | 是啊,听起来像一个很好的,友好的对话。 |
| 281 | They are keeping the diplomatic channels open. | 他们保持外交渠道的畅通。 |
| 282 | They are smiling and shaking hands. | 他们在微笑和握手。 |
| 283 | But then, just a few days later, we see the strict face. | 但是,就在几天后,我们看到了严格的面孔。 |
| 284 | On Thursday, the Chinese commerce ministry | 星期四,中国商务部 |
| 285 | made a new aggressive announcement. | 发布新的攻击性公告。 |
| 286 | Right. | 对 |
| 287 | They announced they will extend extra taxes | 他们宣布延长额外税收 |
| 288 | on a specific US product. | 美国的特定产品。 |
| 289 | 该项目名为N-Propanol. | |
| 290 | And they are not just extending the taxes for a few months. | 他们不只是把税收延长几个月。 |
| 291 | They are extending them for five more years. | 他们将延长它们五年。 |
| 292 | Five years is a very long time in the business world. | 五年是商业界的很长一段时间. |
| 293 | It completely changes the market for that product. | 它彻底改变了那个产品的市场。 |
| 294 | Now, N-Propanol is an industrial chemical. | 现在,N-丙醇是一种工业化学物质. |
| 295 | It is mostly used for making packaging materials. | 它主要用于制作包装材料. |
| 296 | That is a very specific target. | 这是一个非常具体的目标。 |
| 297 | They did not tax a broad category like all plastics. | 他们并没有像所有塑料一样对一个广泛的类别征税。 |
| 298 | No, they targeted one specific industrial chemical. | 不,他们针对的是一种特定的工业化学品。 |
| 299 | Why would they choose N-Propanol? | 他们为什么要选N-丙醇? |
| 300 | It is a precise strike. | 这是一个精确的罢工。 |
| 301 | In trade wars, countries often target specific products | 在贸易战争中,国家往往以特定产品为目标 |
| 302 | to hurt specific factories. | 伤害特定的工厂。 |
| 303 | Ah, and those factories might be located | 啊,那些工厂可能已经找到 |
| 304 | in key political voting areas in the US. | 美国的关键政治投票地区。 |
| 305 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 306 | By hurting those factories, China | 通过伤害这些工厂,中国 |
| 307 | sends a direct warning to American politicians. | 直接警告美国政客 |
| 308 | The Chinese government called these specific taxes | 中国政府称这些具体税 |
| 309 | countervailing duties. | 反补贴税。 |
| 310 | We should probably unpack that concept. | 我们也许应该解开这个概念。 |
| 311 | Yeah, it sounds complex, but the mechanism | 是的,这听起来很复杂,但机制 |
| 312 | is actually quite simple. | 其实很简单 |
| 313 | A countervailing duty is basically a special defense tax. | 反补贴税基本上是特殊的国防税. |
| 314 | OK, so how does it work? | 好吧,这怎么行呢? |
| 315 | Well, sometimes a government gives financial help | 有时候政府会提供经济帮助 |
| 316 | to its own companies. | 给自己的公司。 |
| 317 | This help is called a subsidy. | 这种帮助称为补贴。 |
| 318 | So China is accusing the US government | 所以中国指责美国政府 |
| 319 | of giving special financial help to American N-Propanol | 向美国N-丙醇提供特别经济援助 |
| 320 | companies? | 公司吗? |
| 321 | Yes. | 对 |
| 322 | This extra money makes the American product very cheap | 这额外的钱使美国产品非常便宜 |
| 323 | to produce. | 生产。 |
| 324 | It makes the price artificially low on the global market. | 它使价格在全球市场上人为地低落. |
| 325 | And China sees this as an unfair advantage. | 而中国认为这是不公平的优势. |
| 326 | The cheap American product hurts Chinese chemical companies. | 美国廉价产品伤害中国化工公司. |
| 327 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 328 | So China fights back at the border. | 所以中国在边境反击. |
| 329 | They add this special defense tax. | 他们增加了这种特殊的国防税. |
| 330 | The tax brings the price of the American product back up. | 税令美国产品价格回升. |
| 331 | It makes the market fair again for the local Chinese | 这让当地华人又公平市场 |
| 332 | businesses. | 企业。 |
| 333 | And they chose to announce this five-year tax extension | 他们决定宣布延长五年的税收 |
| 334 | right in the middle of these delicate farm talks. | 就在这些微妙的农场谈话中 |
| 335 | This is a very calculated move. | 这是一个非常周密的动作。 |
| 336 | It feels like shaking someone's hand | 感觉像在握手 |
| 337 | warmly while you are holding a heavy shield in your other hand. | 在另一只手上握着一道厚重的盾牌时 十分热情 |
| 338 | It is a classic negotiation strategy. | 这是一项典型的谈判战略。 |
| 339 | You must show two things at once. | 你必须同时展示两件事 |
| 340 | First, you show you are willing to cooperate. | 首先,你显示你愿意合作。 |
| 341 | Monday's meeting with the farm delegation showed that. | 星期一与农场代表团的会议就表明了这一点。 |
| 342 | Second, you show you are not afraid to fight. | 第二,你证明你不怕打架 |
| 343 | Thursday's tax announcement showed that. | 星期四的税务公告就表明了这一点. |
| 344 | It sends a very clear message to Washington. | 它向华盛顿发出了一个非常明确的信息. |
| 345 | We can work together, but do not mistake | 我们可以合作,但不要搞错 |
| 346 | our kindness for weakness. | 我们善待弱者 |
| 347 | We can still punish your factories if we have to. | 如果有必要 我们还可以惩罚你的工厂 |
| 348 | It just keeps the American negotiators guessing. | 它只会让美国谈判者猜测 |
| 349 | They do not know which version of China | 他们不知道中国的哪个版本 |
| 350 | will show up at the APEC summit. | 将出席亚太经合组织首脑会议。 |
| 351 | Will it be the friendly partner? | 会是友好的搭档吗? |
| 352 | Or the strict opponent? | 还是严格的对手? |
| 353 | It is a brilliant way to maintain leverage. | 这是保持杠杆作用的绝妙方法。 |
| 354 | They are controlling the tone of the conversation | 他们控制了谈话的语气 |
| 355 | before the leaders even meet. | 在领导人见面之前 |
| 356 | This entire situation shows how complex | 整个情况表明 |
| 357 | international trade really is. | 国际贸易确实如此。 |
| 358 | It is never just about buying and selling. | 它从来不只是买卖。 |
| 359 | No, it is about domestic politics. | 不,这是关于国内政治。 |
| 360 | It is about national security. | 这是关于国家安全。 |
| 361 | It is about psychological pressure. | 这是关于心理压力。 |
| 362 | We have covered a lot of deep concepts today. | 我们今天阐述了许多深刻的概念。 |
| 363 | Let us summarize the main takeaways for you. | 让我们总结一下主要外卖 |
| 364 | The U.S. and China built a framework | 美国和中国建立了框架 |
| 365 | for a massive agricultural trade deal. | 大规模农产品交易 |
| 366 | They agreed to mutual tax cuts of $30 billion each. | 他们同意相互减税300亿美元。 |
| 367 | But neither side is willing to take the first step. | 但双方都不愿意采取第一步。 |
| 368 | The tax cuts are frozen. | 减税被冻结。 |
| 369 | Because of this, China is pausing $17 billion | 因为这样,中国就少了170亿 |
| 370 | in U.S. farm purchases. | 美国的农场采购。 |
| 371 | Meanwhile, China continues to buy | 与此同时,中国继续购买 |
| 372 | massive amounts of U.S. soybeans. | 大量的美国大豆。 |
| 373 | They're doing this to protect their domestic pork industry. | 他们这样做是为了保护国内猪肉工业. |
| 374 | They need to keep food prices low for their citizens. | 他们要为公民保持低粮价. |
| 375 | On top of all this, the recent U.S. midterm elections | 除此之外,美国最近的中期选举 |
| 376 | have shaken Beijing's trust. | 动摇了北京的信任。 |
| 377 | The Democrats won big. | 民主党大获全胜. |
| 378 | Now, China worries the current administration | 现在,中国担心现任政府 |
| 379 | cannot enforce the trade promises. | 无法执行贸易承诺。 |
| 380 | And they are heading into a major global summit | 他们正走向一个重要的全球首脑会议 |
| 381 | with very mixed signals. | 信号很混杂 |
| 382 | They are holding friendly meetings | 他们正在举行友好的会议 |
| 383 | while simultaneously extending aggressive defense taxes | 同时延长进攻性国防税 |
| 384 | on American chemicals. | 美国化学品。 |
| 385 | It is a high stakes game of chess. | 这是一个高赌注的棋局。 |
| 386 | As we watch this story develop, | 当我们看这个故事发展, |
| 387 | there's one major element to keep your eye on. | 有个重要因素需要注意 |
| 388 | The tension between needs and wants. | 需求与需求之间的紧张关系。 |
| 389 | Which brings us to a final thought for you to mull over. | 这让我们想到一个最后的主意 让你考虑一下 |
| 390 | We want you to think about the leverage in this situation. | 我们希望你考虑一下在这种情况下的筹码。 |
| 391 | Think about those cargo ships full of soybeans. | 想想那些装满大豆的货船 |
| 392 | China's buying millions of tons of those soybeans right now. | 中国现在正在购买几百万吨的大豆. |
| 393 | They are making those purchases | 他们正在买这些东西 |
| 394 | without the $30 billion tax cut. | 没有300亿美元减税。 |
| 395 | They clearly need the food security | 他们显然需要食物保障 |
| 396 | more than they need the political victory on tariffs. | 比他们更需要关税的政治胜利 |
| 397 | So here is the question for you. | 这就是你的问题 |
| 398 | If China is forced to buy all those soybeans anyway, | 如果中国被迫买下这些大豆 |
| 399 | which country actually holds more power? | 哪个国家真正拥有更多的权力? |
| 400 | When they finally sit down at the APEC summit, | 当他们终于坐下来参加亚太经合组织首脑会议时, |
| 401 | who has the upper hand? | 谁占上风? |
| 402 | If your biggest trading partner knows | 如果你最大的交易伙伴知道 |
| 403 | you cannot stop buying their core product, | 你不能停止购买他们的核心产品, |
| 404 | how strong is your position? | 你的立场有多强? |
| 405 | How strong is your negotiating position | 你的谈判立场有多强 |
| 406 | for the remaining $17 billion? | 剩下的170亿美元? |
| 407 | It changes the entire balance of power at the table. | 它改变了桌子上的权力平衡 |
| 408 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 409 | Well, thank you for joining us. | 好吧,谢谢你加入我们。 |
| 410 | For this deep dive, we love breaking down | 为了这个深潜,我们喜欢破解 |
| 411 | these complex global puzzles with you. | 这些复杂的全球谜题与你。 |
| 412 | Keep looking closely at the details behind the headlines. | 继续密切关注头条背后的细节. |
| 413 | We will see you next time. | 下次见 |
| 414 | Stay curious and keep exploring. | 保持好奇 继续探索 |
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