AI泡沫堪比2000年互联网！达利欧：AI是典型的泡沫，正接
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | We have a bunch of dynamics that look to me like some big pins going towards a bubble. | 我们有很多的动态, 在我看来,像一些大针 走向一个泡沫。 |
| 0:07 | It looks to me that way too. | 我也这么认为 |
| 0:09 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 0:10 | So, and you have a very great concentration of | 所以,你有一个非常 集中 |
| 0:17 | everything being bet on it. | 赌上一切 |
| 0:19 | In other words, its share of GDP, its share of wealth, | 换句话说,它在国内生产总值中的份额,在财富中的份额, |
| 0:24 | its share of the stock market, what it means for the bond market, what it means for trade, | 股票市场份额,债券市场意义,贸易意义, |
| 0:29 | what it means geopolitically for war, what it means for employment. | 战争的地缘政治意义,就业意义。 |
| 0:33 | There's a lot on that one thing. | 这件事有很多 |
| 0:41 | Hi, I'm Nicholas Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, and this is The Most Interesting Thing in AI. | 嗨 我是Nicholas Thompson 大西洋首席执行官 这是AI里最有趣的东西 |
展开字幕全文（1019 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | We have a bunch of dynamics that look to me like some big pins going towards a bubble. | 我们有很多的动态, 在我看来,像一些大针 走向一个泡沫。 |
| 2 | It looks to me that way too. | 我也这么认为 |
| 3 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 4 | So, and you have a very great concentration of | 所以,你有一个非常 集中 |
| 5 | everything being bet on it. | 赌上一切 |
| 6 | In other words, its share of GDP, its share of wealth, | 换句话说,它在国内生产总值中的份额,在财富中的份额, |
| 7 | its share of the stock market, what it means for the bond market, what it means for trade, | 股票市场份额,债券市场意义,贸易意义, |
| 8 | what it means geopolitically for war, what it means for employment. | 战争的地缘政治意义,就业意义。 |
| 9 | There's a lot on that one thing. | 这件事有很多 |
| 10 | Hi, I'm Nicholas Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, and this is The Most Interesting Thing in AI. | 嗨 我是Nicholas Thompson 大西洋首席执行官 这是AI里最有趣的东西 |
| 11 | A few weeks ago, I had Azima Zahar on the show, and we talked about one of the biggest questions | 几周前,我让Azima Zahar上节目 我们谈了一个最大的问题 |
| 12 | in AI. | 在大赦国际中。 |
| 13 | Are we in a bubble? | 我们在泡泡吗? |
| 14 | The technology is amazing, but that does not mean the economics | 技术是惊人的,但这并不意味着 经济学 |
| 15 | work. | 工作时 |
| 16 | And if you've listened to that episode, you know Azima's answer was, no, no, it's not a bubble. | 如果你听了那集, 你知道阿齐玛的回答是,不,不,这不是一个泡沫。 |
| 17 | We worked through a whole series of arguments. | 我们经历了一系列争论 |
| 18 | I kind of made the case that it is. | 我做了这个案子 |
| 19 | He batted each | 他打的每个 |
| 20 | of them back. | 他们回来了。 |
| 21 | But of course, not everybody shares Azima's views. | 当然,不是每个人都同意Azima的观点。 |
| 22 | One notable skeptic is Ray Dalio. | 一个值得注意的怀疑是雷·达利奥. |
| 23 | He is the founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund. | 他是世界上最大的对冲基金Bridgewater的创始人. |
| 24 | Ray famously predicted the | 雷有名的预言 |
| 25 | 2008 financial crisis, which meant that as the housing bubble burst and unleashed economic chaos, | 2008年金融危机,这意味着随着住房泡沫的破裂和引发经济混乱, |
| 26 | Bridgewater's investments actually went up in value, as they did basically every year since he | Bridgewater的投资额实际上上升了 和他以后的每年一样 |
| 27 | started the fund. | 启动基金。 |
| 28 | He left the firm last year. | 去年他离开了律所 |
| 29 | Now he shares his insights through his newsletter, | 现在他通过他的通讯分享他的见解 |
| 30 | Principled Perspectives, as well as through books like How Countries Go Broke. | 原则性观点,以及通过《国家如何崩溃》等书籍。 |
| 31 | If you want smart | 如果你想要聪明 |
| 32 | insights on markets and investing and what happens when an asset gets overvalued, | 了解市场和投资,以及资产被高估时会发生什么, |
| 33 | Ray's a good guy to know. | 雷是个好人 |
| 34 | For the past year, he's been sounding the alarm on AI. | 在过去的一年里,他在AI上发出警报. |
| 35 | He said, | 他说, |
| 36 | it's a bubble, but not for the reason you'd expect. | 这是泡泡,但不是因为你期望的原因。 |
| 37 | So I sat down with Ray to hear why | 所以我和雷坐下来听为什么 |
| 38 | and how we can avoid another cycle like 2008. | 以及如何避免2008年这样的循环。 |
| 39 | And this podcast is from my team on the business side | 这个播客来自我的团队 在商业方面 |
| 40 | of the Atlantic and independent of the Atlantic's editorial staff. | 并独立于大西洋的编辑人员。 |
| 41 | Here's my conversation with Ray | 这是我和雷的谈话 |
| 42 | Dalio. | 大连. |
| 43 | Ray Dalio, welcome to The Most Interesting Thing in AI. | Ray Dalio 欢迎来到AI里最有趣的东西 |
| 44 | I'm excited. | 我很兴奋 |
| 45 | I'm delighted to have | 我很高兴 |
| 46 | you here. | 你在这里。 |
| 47 | The most interesting thing in AI. | AI里最有趣的东西. |
| 48 | That's what we're going to try to get to. | 即令诸众生欲得成就. |
| 49 | 好了,我们走 All right, | |
| 50 | let's just start your big theory, five forces that drive history, debt, internal politics, | 让我们开始你的大理论, 五种力量 驱动历史,债务,内部政治, |
| 51 | world order, acts of nature, technology. | 世界秩序、自然行为、技术 |
| 52 | You describe world history with them | 你描述他们的世界历史 |
| 53 | ebbing and flowing. | 抽而流之. |
| 54 | My first question, are we at a stage where technology, the fifth force, | 我的第一个问题,我们是否处于一个 技术,第五力量, |
| 55 | is becoming more powerful than the other four, or is it in the same balance it's been in historically? | 变得比其他四个更强大, 还是在同样的平衡 它在历史上一直存在? |
| 56 | Any way you cut it, they're intertwined, and I just want to touch on those, okay? | 不管怎么剪,它们相互交织 我只想摸摸它们,好吗? |
| 57 | Please. | 请 |
| 58 | The first force is the money, debt, house spending, capital, very important in AI. | 第一力量是金钱,债务,房屋支出,资本,在AI中非常重要. |
| 59 | Is this a bubble? | 这是泡泡吗? |
| 60 | Is this going to work or whatever? | 这会成功吗? |
| 61 | So that first force, where are we? | 那么,第一部队,我们在哪里? |
| 62 | Do we have a debt bubble? | 我们有债务泡沫吗? |
| 63 | What's going to happen? | 怎么办? |
| 64 | Okay, that's a big force. | 好吧,这是一大力量。 |
| 65 | By the end of this conversation, every listener is going to know the answer to that. | 到这次谈话结束时,每个听众都会知道答案. |
| 66 | That's why I wrote the book, okay? | 这就是我写这本书的原因,好吗? |
| 67 | Because it's mechanical. | 因为它是机械的。 |
| 68 | It still is mechanical. | 它仍然是机械的。 |
| 69 | It doesn't | 没有 |
| 70 | change. | 变化。 |
| 71 | If you're holding a bond, you expect to get paid back, and if you're owing, you have to | 如果你持有保证金, 你期望得到还款, 如果你欠, 你必须 |
| 72 | pay, right? | 付钱,对吧? |
| 73 | So that doesn't change with AI. | 因此,这不会改变与AI。 |
| 74 | I thought you were reaching into my questions, | 我以为你在探究我的问题 |
| 75 | Ray 来 | |
| 76 | I wouldn't think of it. | 我不会想到的。 |
| 77 | Okay, number two, that force, and it's mechanical, okay? | 好的,第二,那股力,是机械的,好吗? |
| 78 | My main point | 我的要点 |
| 79 | is that everything's mechanical. | 是一切的机械。 |
| 80 | Everything that happens has causes that make it happen, | 发生的一切 都有导致它发生的原因 |
| 81 | and if you understand the mechanics like that, then you understand how it works, and that's | 如果你了解这种力学, 那你就会明白它是如何工作的,这就是 |
| 82 | important, okay? | 很重要,好吗? |
| 83 | AI doesn't change that, okay? | AI不会改变这一点,好吗? |
| 84 | It'll influence it. | 它会影响它。 |
| 85 | But the second force is | 但第二股力量是 |
| 86 | politics, okay? | 政治,好吗? |
| 87 | Internal order. | 内序. |
| 88 | There's a political order. | 有政治秩序. |
| 89 | There's a social order. | 有社会秩序. |
| 90 | The more you get to left and right and you have a conflict, okay? | 你越是左右夹击 你就会有冲突,好吗? |
| 91 | There's a problem. | 有个问题 |
| 92 | So the first, | 所以第一个 |
| 93 | if you have a debt problem, you have a problem, okay? | 如果你有债务问题, 你有问题,好吗? |
| 94 | These men end up being in big cycles | 这些人最终陷入大循环 |
| 95 | because there's a debt cycle. | 因为有一个债务周期。 |
| 96 | There's a political cycle, and that political cycle, as you come out | 有个政治循环,那个政治循环,当你出来的时候 |
| 97 | of the conflict and you wipe out the debt and you have a war and you now start with a fresh slate | 冲突结束后,你把债务一笔勾销了,你又开战了,现在你又开始新的战争 |
| 98 | like we did in around 1950 or after 1945, you have a fresh slate, you begin this cycle, and then the | 就像我们在1950年左右或1945年之后一样 你有一个新单子 你开始这个循环,然后 |
| 99 | debts rise relative to incomes and so on, and then the politics, and it's connected to wealth gaps, | 债务相对于收入,然后政治, 它与财富差距有关, |
| 100 | so that's second, fourth wealth gaps and values gaps causes, as that cycle happens, it causes more | 因此,这是第二,第四 财富差距和价值差距 导致,因为 周期发生, 它导致更多 |
| 101 | disorder because there's greater polarity, populism, and so on. | 由于存在较大的极性,民粹主义等障碍. |
| 102 | So that's second force, | 所以这是第二股力量, |
| 103 | very much related to the first force, which is the debt money, and we're going to get to the other. | 非常与第一股力量有关, 也就是债务资金, 而我们将得到另一个。 |
| 104 | The third force is geopolitical. | 第三股力量是地缘政治。 |
| 105 | In other words, the second is how we deal with each | 换句话说,第二个是我们如何对待每一个 |
| 106 | other within the country. | 国内的其他人。 |
| 107 | The third force is how countries deal with each other. | 第三股力量是各国如何相互打交道。 |
| 108 | There's a world | 有一个世界 |
| 109 | order, and that has a big effect, right? | 这有很强的效果,对吧? |
| 110 | And so we're going from what used to be a multilateral | 所以,我们从过去 一个多边 |
| 111 | world order that the United States created after 1945 war. | 美国在1945年战争后建立的世界秩序。 |
| 112 | It was a replica almost of democracy, | 这几乎是民主的复制品 |
| 113 | but there's the United Nations and these multilateral institutions, the world court, | 但还有联合国和这些多边机构 世界法院 |
| 114 | can you imagine that? | 你能想象吗? |
| 115 | The world bank, the world this is, and the world's that, the world health | 世界银行 世界就是世界 世界就是世界卫生 |
| 116 | organization. | 组织。 |
| 117 | That's over, right? | 结束了吧? |
| 118 | And so we're now coming into a more the way the world used to be, | 所以,我们现在 进入一个更 像过去的世界, |
| 119 | which is power matters, and so that produces greater conflict. | 这才是权力的重中之重 从而造成更大的冲突 |
| 120 | So that's the third. | 故为第三. |
| 121 | The fourth, no particular order, the fourth is acts of nature. | 第四,没有特定的顺序,第四是自然行为. |
| 122 | We have to be aware that they've | 我们必须知道,他们已经 |
| 123 | killed more people in history, nature matters. | 杀了更多的人 在历史上,自然大事。 |
| 124 | And so acts of nature and certainly climate | 自然和气候 |
| 125 | is an issue, and probably as we come into a Super El Nino in the year ahead or two, | 这是一个问题,而且也许 当我们进入超级埃尔尼诺 在未来的一两年, |
| 126 | we will see that matters. | 我们会看到这一点。 |
| 127 | And then the fifth force is man's inventiveness of particularly new | 然后第五股力量是人类对新事物的创造力 |
| 128 | technologies, right? | 技术,对不对? |
| 129 | And so AI matters, but it's very much tied to these other forces, | 所以AI很重要,但它与这些其他力量有很大联系, |
| 130 | so we can't look at it separately, right? | 所以我们不能分开看,对吧? |
| 131 | How much money does it get money? | 能赚多少钱? |
| 132 | Do they make money? | 他们赚钱吗? |
| 133 | What are the political and what are the geopolitical? | 什么是政治,什么是地缘政治? |
| 134 | I'm sure when we're talking | 我敢肯定,当我们说话 |
| 135 | about AI, we're going to talk about China. | 关于AI,我们要谈谈中国。 |
| 136 | We're going to talk about what it means in terms of | 我们要谈谈它的含义 |
| 137 | economics and war, okay? | 经济学和战争,好吗? |
| 138 | So those five forces, and they tend to operate in a cycle | 所以这五支部队, 他们往往在一个循环中运作 |
| 139 | because the first three are very cyclical. | 因为前三个非常周期性。 |
| 140 | Yep. | 对 |
| 141 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 142 | So it was a good answer, | 所以这是一个很好的答案, |
| 143 | Ray, because every single sentence I wanted to respond to with another question, but let's do | 雷,因为每一个句子 我想回答另一个问题, 但让我们做 |
| 144 | this. | 这个 |
| 145 | I want you to go back in time a little bit, and then we'll get to where we are in the | 我希望你能回到过去一点, 然后我们就可以到达我们的位置 |
| 146 | debt cycle, where we're in the political cycle, how AI is going to affect it. | 债务周期,我们所处的政治周期,AI会如何影响它. |
| 147 | So you're in Bridgewater, | 这么说你在布里奇沃特 |
| 148 | most successful hedge fund in America, and you ran it for 40 years? | 美国最成功的对冲基金, 而你运行了40年? |
| 149 | About 40 years. | 约四十年. |
| 150 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 151 | controlled it for 50 years, and probably I ran it. | 控制它50年, 可能我运行它。 |
| 152 | I stepped out 48 years. | 我离开了48年。 |
| 153 | But what's interesting | 但有什么有趣的东西 |
| 154 | and relevant to this conversation, you're wildly successful. | 与这次对话相关 你非常成功 |
| 155 | You were using a form of AI, and | 你用了一种人工智能,而且, |
| 156 | obviously forms of high technology, but very much a rule-based system, as I understand it, | 很明显是高科技的形态, 但非常基于规则的系统,据我所知, |
| 157 | from going back and reading how you set it up, saying these are the principles, these are what | 从回去,读你是如何设置的, 说这是原则,这是什么 |
| 158 | I believe, these are the rules. | 我相信,这是规则。 |
| 159 | Explain how Bridgewater used AI, and let's talk about some | 解释一下Bridgewater是怎么用人工智能的 让我们谈谈一些 |
| 160 | of the differences between that and the way AI works now. | 这和AI现在的工作方式不同 |
| 161 | The term AI began, and so the concept, | AI这个词开始, 所以这个概念, |
| 162 | in 1956. | 1956年参加. |
| 163 | Of course. | 当然 |
| 164 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 165 | And it's had different forms along the lines. | 它有不同的形式 沿着线。 |
| 166 | So what I did in building | 所以我在建造时所做的 |
| 167 | Bridgewater was I would think what are my criteria for making decisions, and I would specify those. | Bridgewater是我想我做决定的标准是什么,我会具体说明这些。 |
| 168 | I would go back and back test those, and then I would computerize those. | 我会回去测试这些 然后把这些电脑化 |
| 169 | So give me an example | 所以举个例子 |
| 170 | of a rule. | 规则。 |
| 171 | If growth measured by the initial claims for unemployment was rising, and then I | 如果以最初的失业要求衡量的增长在上升,那么我 |
| 172 | combine it with commodity prices as a daily measure of inflation, if I put those two things | 把它和商品价格结合起来,作为衡量通货膨胀的日常标准, 如果我把这两个东西 |
| 173 | together, when growth is high and inflation is rising, if I want to then be short bonds rather | 如果我想成为短期债券的话 |
| 174 | than long bonds, is that a good decision? | 比长期债券, 这是一个很好的决定吗? |
| 175 | Right. | 对 |
| 176 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 177 | So you figure out these rules, | 所以你想出这些规矩 |
| 178 | you figure out these systems, you build it, keep going. | 你找出这些系统, 你建造它,继续前进。 |
| 179 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 180 | So I learned then about the powers | 于是我学到了力量 |
| 181 | being able to do it that way. | 能够做到这一点。 |
| 182 | The main powers are, first of all, if you have those rules, | 主要权力是,首先, 如果你有这些规则, |
| 183 | you can apply them everywhere. | 你可以在任何地方应用它们。 |
| 184 | Like if I was thinking, what am I going to do? | 如果我在想,我该怎么办? |
| 185 | What country | 哪个国家 |
| 186 | do I want to invest in? | 我想投资吗? |
| 187 | What do I want to do? | 我该怎么办? |
| 188 | When I have those criteria, I comply in everywhere, | 当我有那些标准, 我遵守在任何地方, |
| 189 | and then also complexity can be handled in a much better way. | 然后再以更好的方式处理复杂性。 |
| 190 | Speed is in a much better way, | 速度是更好的方式, |
| 191 | less motions entering into the decisions, so I can make much better decisions. | 这样我就能做出更好的决定 |
| 192 | And so it's more like | 所以,它更喜欢 |
| 193 | then doing the research on the criteria, programming them up, and it's like building a | 然后对标准进行研究, 编程,这就像建立一个 |
| 194 | factory that doesn't have workers. | 工厂没有工人。 |
| 195 | In other words, the old way, it seems to me, the mistaken way | 换句话说,老方式,在我看来, 错误的方式 |
| 196 | of everybody was to weigh things in their heads, where it's the working of weighing those things | 在每个人的脑海中 重着东西 重着那些东西 |
| 197 | in your heads, but then also then thinking, what are they? | 在你的脑海中, 但也思考,他们是什么? |
| 198 | Program them, check it. | 编程,检查一下 |
| 199 | So it was like | 所以说 |
| 200 | building a computer chess game. | 建立计算机围棋游戏。 |
| 201 | In other words, it's my criteria, how would I play chess? | 换句话说,这是我的标准,我怎么下棋? |
| 202 | And the system would be dealing with the world, and then I'm dealing with the world, and then I | 而系统会处理世界, 然后我处理世界,然后我 |
| 203 | reconcile those two things. | 调和这两件事 |
| 204 | What move would it make? | 它会做什么动作? |
| 205 | What move would I make? | 我会怎么做? |
| 206 | And if they were | 如果他们是 |
| 207 | different, I would say, why would that move be different? | 不同的,我会说,为什么这个动作是不同的? |
| 208 | And I would say probably 65, 70% of | 我可能会说,65,70% |
| 209 | the time, it's because I forgot or couldn't program that complexity. | 是因为我忘记或无法编程如此复杂 |
| 210 | And maybe a third of | 也许有三分之一 |
| 211 | the time, it's something else that then I say, oh, I better systemize that. | 时间,这是别的东西,然后我说, 哦,我更好的系统化。 |
| 212 | And over a period of time, | 过了一段时间 |
| 213 | they become one and the same. | 他们变得一模一样 |
| 214 | Because you've learned something new about commodity prices | 因为你对商品价格有了新的了解 |
| 215 | or the bond market. | 或债券市场。 |
| 216 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 217 | In other words, there's still information, there's still criteria, | 也就是说,还有信息,还有标准 |
| 218 | there's still cause effect relationships. | 仍然有产生效应的关系。 |
| 219 | And the causes happen before the effects. | 而诸因果前. |
| 220 | So if you know those cause effect relationships, whether it's the most advanced AI or whatever | 所以,如果你知道这些 造成效果的关系, 不管它是最先进的AI还是什么的 |
| 221 | thinking, you have to understand those cause effect relationships. | 想想看,你必须了解这些 因果关系。 |
| 222 | Right. | 对 |
| 223 | So you build these | 所以,你建造这些 |
| 224 | rules, you very famously, you end up in 9% return during the stock market crash of 2008. | 规则,你非常有名,你最终在2008年股市暴跌期间得到9%的回报. |
| 225 | You understand where things are going in ways that no one else or very few other people do. | 你明白事情的进行方式 其他人或很少人会这么做 |
| 226 | How many rules do you systematize into the Bridgewater system? | 你有多少规则系统进入布里奇沃特系统? |
| 227 | Was it 100 rules? | 是100条规则吗? |
| 228 | Was it | 琌盾 |
| 229 | 100,000 rules? | 十万条? |
| 230 | I would say there's a certain number of markets, and then there's a certain | 我会说有一定数量的市场, 然后有一个特定的 |
| 231 | number of rules per market that adds up to that. | 每个市场的规则数量 总计。 |
| 232 | So I would say it's hundreds, but I don't want to | 所以我会说是几百, 但我不想 |
| 233 | make it abstract. | 让它抽象。 |
| 234 | I want to bring it to, let's say, each person. | 我想把它带到,让我们说,每个人。 |
| 235 | Okay, if you went around and | 好吧,如果你绕过去 |
| 236 | you simply said, I'm going to pause, I've made a decision, you made a decision to have me on this | 你只是说,我要暂停, 我做了一个决定, 你做了一个决定 让我在这件事上 |
| 237 | show or whatever it is, and you start and you pause and you think, why did I make that decision? | 展示什么的,你开始,你暂停,你认为, 我为什么要做那个决定? |
| 238 | What are my criteria? | 我的标准是什么? |
| 239 | And you just spit them into your iPhone or whatever. | 你只是把它们吐进你的iPhone什么的。 |
| 240 | And you start to think | 你开始思考 |
| 241 | about that. | 关于那个。 |
| 242 | You will acquire those criteria that you're using. | 你会得到你使用的标准。 |
| 243 | And then if you do that, | 如果你这样做, |
| 244 | you will be able to systemize your decision making process, which is certainly where we are now. | 你们将能够使你们的决策过程系统化,这无疑就是我们现在的状况。 |
| 245 | And if you do a good job and you know how to do it, you will also backtest those rules to see how | 如果你做一个好工作,你知道如何做到这一点, 你也会回击 这些规则,看看如何 |
| 246 | they would have worked in the past to help provide the better principles. | 他们过去本来会努力帮助提供更好的原则。 |
| 247 | I call these principles. | 我称之为这些原则。 |
| 248 | What are these principles that if I do this, I'm going to get a better outcome than if I do that? | 这些原则是什么 如果我这样做, 我会得到一个更好的结果 比如果我这样做? |
| 249 | That's where we're going in AI. | 这就是我们要去的AI。 |
| 250 | So let's go back to the Bridgewater story. | 故复说桥水经. |
| 251 | So Bridgewater | 所以桥水 |
| 252 | succeeds, succeeds, succeeds. | 成功,成功,成功,成功。 |
| 253 | You're able to anticipate when bubbles are going to burst. | 你可以预测泡沫何时会爆发 |
| 254 | You're able to anticipate what will prick the bubble, right? | 你能预料到什么会刺进气泡 对吧? |
| 255 | Knowing there's a bubble is one | 知道有泡泡就有一个 |
| 256 | thing. | 东西。 |
| 257 | Knowing what will prick the bubble or anticipating or guessing or estimating. | 知道什么会刺进气泡 预测或猜测或估计 |
| 258 | 2026, | 2026, (英语). |
| 259 | where are we now in the cycle, particularly when it comes to the question of a tech bubble? | 特别是在技术泡沫问题上,我们现在处于哪个阶段? |
| 260 | And then very relatedly, if we're in one, which I've heard you say, what could prick it? | 然后非常相关的,如果我们在一个, 我听到你说, 是什么可以刺它? |
| 261 | The way I want to convey it and try to convey it in the book is what are the cause effect | 我想在书中传达 并尝试传达 原因是什么 |
| 262 | relationships? | 关系? |
| 263 | How does the machine work? | 机器是怎样工作的? |
| 264 | There are basics such as if the government | 有政府之类的基础 |
| 265 | has a lot of debt, how is it going to pay that debt? | 欠了很多债,怎么还债? |
| 266 | And then if companies are taking a lot of | 然后如果公司采取了很多 |
| 267 | debt and selling capital, you have to raise capital in order to do these things. | 债务和出售资本,你必须筹集资本来做这些事情。 |
| 268 | There's | 还有 |
| 269 | mechanics. | 力学. |
| 270 | There's a certain supply and a certain demand that enters into that. | 有一定供给和一定需求进入. |
| 271 | So now you look back | 现在你回头看 |
| 272 | and you would say an answer to your question for me, which is a bubble question, not an AI question, | 你会为我回答你的问题 这是泡泡问题 不是AI问题 |
| 273 | because the AI can do it as well. | 因为人工智能也能做到 |
| 274 | It just has to replicate, is that throughout history, | 它只需要复制, 在整个历史, |
| 275 | and I think it is true today, that there are miraculous inventions that come along, | 我认为今天是真的 有奇迹般的发明出现 |
| 276 | that dramatically change the way the world works. | 这大大改变了世界的运作方式。 |
| 277 | So if you look back at those and so on, | 所以,如果你回顾这些等等, |
| 278 | there's a mechanics to that, which means that people want to invest in those things, | 也就是说人们想投资这些东西 |
| 279 | that they believe it, that there's their experience. | 他们相信,有他们的经验。 |
| 280 | Like in the 20s, first time | 像20年代一样,第一次 |
| 281 | there's electricity in houses and you have refrigerator and light, first time movies, | 家里有电 你还有冰箱和灯光 第一次拍电影 |
| 282 | first time radio, cars and airplanes and so on. | 第一次收音机,汽车和飞机等等。 |
| 283 | Everybody looks around and they say that | 每个人都四处看,他们说 |
| 284 | is obviously a thing to bet on. | 很明显是值得赌注的 |
| 285 | And then everyone wants to bet on it. | 然后每个人都想赌它。 |
| 286 | And then it becomes a thing. | 然后它就变成了一件事。 |
| 287 | But everything has a price. | 但一切都有代价 |
| 288 | And is that price too high? | 那价钱太高了吗? |
| 289 | And then there's a need for cash. | 后又须现. |
| 290 | So | 这么说 |
| 291 | the way they work is people will borrow money and it goes through a cycle. | 他们的工作方式是人们会借钱 并经历一个循环。 |
| 292 | So there's what companies | 因此,有什么样的公司 |
| 293 | do and there's what people do, investors do. | 做和有 人们做什么,投资者做什么。 |
| 294 | What the companies do is they say, I need to compete | 公司都说我要竞争 |
| 295 | for capital. | 为资本。 |
| 296 | I don't know whether I'm over investing or under investing. | 我不知道我是投资过度还是投资不足 |
| 297 | There's two choices, | 有两个选择 |
| 298 | because it's very unknown. | 因为这是非常未知的。 |
| 299 | There's two choices. | 有两种选择。 |
| 300 | First, I better put as much money as I possibly | 首先,我最好尽量多花钱 |
| 301 | get because I'll certainly lose if I'm not going pedal to the metal. | 因为如果我不踩踏金属,我一定会输的 |
| 302 | And then there's those who | 还有那些 |
| 303 | might over invest and nobody gets it right. | 可能投资过头了 没人能理解 |
| 304 | And it's so hard right now where you could be | 现在很难做到你能去的地方 |
| 305 | a thousand times larger with your annual run rate at the end of the year. | 年终年运行率是1000倍 |
| 306 | It's at the beginning. | 初标中. |
| 307 | It's very hard within that range. | 在那个范围内很难 |
| 308 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 309 | It's hard. | 难曰. |
| 310 | And therefore, | 因此, |
| 311 | do distinguish a good technology from a good investment. | 将良好的技术与良好的投资区分开来。 |
| 312 | And people classically fail to do | 和人们经典的失败 |
| 313 | that. | 那个 |
| 314 | This is good technology. | 这是很好的技术。 |
| 315 | We don't know. | 我们不知道。 |
| 316 | Right. | 对 |
| 317 | And then they say to themselves, | 然后他们对自己说, |
| 318 | I can borrow money or the companies can borrow money. | 我可以借钱 或者公司可以借钱 |
| 319 | There are limits to how much money you | 你的钱是有限的 |
| 320 | can borrow. | 可以借钱。 |
| 321 | And what happens is you also have another dynamic that wealth increases relative | 会发生的是,你还有另一种动力 财富增加相对 |
| 322 | to money. | 给钱。 |
| 323 | So let me put this in an example. | 让我举个例子。 |
| 324 | You can today or anytime you can make an offering. | 你可以今天或任何时间 做一个祭品。 |
| 325 | I'll raise $50 million at a billion dollar valuation. | 我会以十亿美元的价格筹集五千万 |
| 326 | I only put up $50 million, | 我只筹了五千万 |
| 327 | but all of a sudden you're worth a billion dollars. | 但突然间你值十亿 |
| 328 | That company is worth a billion dollars. | 那家公司值十亿美元 |
| 329 | It may not be worth a billion dollars, but now you have a lot of wealth. | 它也许不值十亿美元,但现在你有很多财富。 |
| 330 | And so there's a lot | 所以这里有很多 |
| 331 | wealth around. | 财宝围绕。 |
| 332 | Wealth is not money. | 财富不是金钱。 |
| 333 | You can't spend wealth. | 你不能花财富。 |
| 334 | In order to spend, you either have | 为了花费,你要么 |
| 335 | to sell wealth to get money to spend, or you have to borrow, which still means you're going to have | 出售财富以获得钱财 或你不得不借钱, 这仍然意味着你将拥有 |
| 336 | to come up with cash at some point. | 在某个时候拿出现金。 |
| 337 | Wealth is not money. | 财富不是金钱。 |
| 338 | And so when you're in that situation, | 所以,当你处于这种情况, |
| 339 | you see very classically that that particular diet, wealth grows relative to money. | 你非常经典地看到, 特殊的饮食, 财富相对于金钱增长。 |
| 340 | And then | 礛 |
| 341 | there's a pop of the bubble, the pop of the bubble. | 有个泡泡,一个泡泡 |
| 342 | So very different from the bubble, | 和气泡很不一样 |
| 343 | the bubble increases. | 气泡会增加 |
| 344 | OK. And the question is, even what do we define as a bubble? | 摆 问题是,即使我们把气泡定义为什么? |
| 345 | A lot of people think, well, will it pay off in the end? | 很多人会想,嗯,它最终会得到回报吗? |
| 346 | It's not that. | 不是那样的。 |
| 347 | The end never happens. | 终不发生. |
| 348 | 25 years later is the end. | 25年后就结束了。 |
| 349 | And that's not the verdict. | 这不是判决 |
| 350 | The question is, do you have a crash | 问题是 你有坠机事件吗? |
| 351 | or does something go down in the intervening period? | 或有什么事情 下在中间期? |
| 352 | And that happens when they want to sell | 而当他们想卖的时候 |
| 353 | the wealth. | 财富。 |
| 354 | They have to sell the wealth. | 他们必须出售财富。 |
| 355 | Let's say, for example, if you had wealth taxes. | 比如说,如果你有财富税 |
| 356 | Right. | 对 |
| 357 | California's proposing a billionaire tax. | 加州提出亿万富翁税. |
| 358 | Everybody has to pay it. | 每个人都得付钱 |
| 359 | They don't have the cash. | 他们没有现金。 |
| 360 | They got to pay it. | 他们得付钱 |
| 361 | Right. | 对 |
| 362 | So that's the mechanics. | 这就是力学。 |
| 363 | Or you've got to come up with the cash. | 或者你必须拿出现金。 |
| 364 | And that is what pops the bubbles. | 这就是气泡的产生。 |
| 365 | OK. | 摆 |
| 366 | So that's the dynamic. | 这就是动力。 |
| 367 | And there are a couple other things. | 还有几件事 |
| 368 | OK. Is it in strong hands or weak hands? | 摆 是强手还是弱手? |
| 369 | In other words, the holder of that, | 换句话说,持有者, |
| 370 | are they able to take losses and they'll go through it? | 他们能承受损失吗? |
| 371 | Or will they be in a position where | 或他们将处于一个 |
| 372 | they get scared, they sell out, or they need the cash because all of a sudden they thought that | 他们害怕,他们卖掉, 或者他们需要现金,因为他们突然想到 |
| 373 | they were wealthy, but all of a sudden they're half as wealthy? | 他们很有钱,但突然间他们就一半有钱了? |
| 374 | And what do they do? | 他们做什么的? |
| 375 | Do they buy | 他们买吗? |
| 376 | more? | 还要吗? |
| 377 | Do they sell? | 他们卖吗? |
| 378 | And there's that dynamic that takes place. | 并且有这种动态发生。 |
| 379 | And that's how bubbles work. | 这就是气泡的作用。 |
| 380 | OK. | 摆 |
| 381 | Fantastic. | 厉害 |
| 382 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 383 | It seems like we are quite close | 看来我们很接近了 |
| 384 | to a number of moments that could lead to a burst in the bubble. | 导致气泡爆裂 |
| 385 | We have potential wealth taxes | 我们有潜在的财富税 |
| 386 | that are being discussed. | 正在讨论中。 |
| 387 | Anthropic即将进入IPO. | |
| 388 | All that wealth is going to turn into money. | 所有财富都会变成金钱 |
| 389 | People will have to buy the stocks. | 人们必须购买股票。 |
| 390 | Well, no, it won't turn into money from the get go. | 嗯,不,它不会变成钱 从去。 |
| 391 | Right. | 对 |
| 392 | There will be a process. | 将有一个过程。 |
| 393 | Somebody's going to want to turn that into money because they want | 有人会想把它变成金钱,因为他们想要 |
| 394 | to buy that house or that apartment. | 买房子或公寓。 |
| 395 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 396 | Right. | 对 |
| 397 | So the anthropic employee will sell | 所以人类的员工会卖掉 |
| 398 | the wealth to get the money so they can buy the house or the yacht or give it to the cause. | 财富来赚钱 这样他们就可以买房子或游艇 或者把它交给事业 |
| 399 | And someone will have to get the money in order to get the money to buy the wealth. | 且得有人得钱,以资买财. |
| 400 | They may have to | 他们可能不得不 |
| 401 | sell off their other wealth. | 出卖他们的其他财产。 |
| 402 | We don't know what's going to happen. | 我们不知道会发生什么。 |
| 403 | So you have all of those triggers. | 所以你有所有这些触发器。 |
| 404 | You do have, we saw with the Sitional Awareness Fund this past July, you have very eager investors | 去年7月,我们通过 特别意识基金,你确实有,你有非常热心的投资者 |
| 405 | who are extremely leveraged who at that moment, you know, Leopold Ashbender had to acquire a lot | 极富杠杆性 在那一刻,你知道,利奥波德・阿什本德 不得不获得很多 |
| 406 | of money to cover a bunch of bets. | 钱来支付一堆赌注。 |
| 407 | So we have a bunch of dynamics that look to me like some | 因此,我们有一堆动态 看起来像一些 |
| 408 | big pins going towards a bubble. | 大胸针向着一个泡沫。 |
| 409 | It looks to me that way too. | 我也这么认为 |
| 410 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 411 | So, and you have a very great | 所以,你有一个非常伟大的 |
| 412 | concentration of everything being bet on it. | 集中一切的赌注在它上。 |
| 413 | In other words, its share of GDP, its share of wealth, | 换句话说,它在国内生产总值中的份额,在财富中的份额, |
| 414 | its share of the stock market, what it means for the bond market, what it means for trade, | 股票市场份额,债券市场意义,贸易意义, |
| 415 | what it means geopolitically for war, what it means for employment. | 战争的地缘政治意义,就业意义。 |
| 416 | There's a lot on that one | 上面有很多东西 |
| 417 | thing. | 东西。 |
| 418 | Right. | 对 |
| 419 | Going back to your forces, just American political system, not at the best shape. | 回到你的势力, 只是美国的政治制度, 不是最好的形态。 |
| 420 | Internal politics don't seem great. | 内部政治似乎并不伟大. |
| 421 | Geopolitics with China, not great. | 与中国的地缘政治,并不伟大. |
| 422 | Potential shock to the | 潜在的冲击 |
| 423 | system with move against Taiwan. | 对抗台湾的系统 |
| 424 | She's in her 70s, wants to do it in her lifetime. | 她已经70多岁了,想在她的一生中做到这一点。 |
| 425 | Who knows | 谁知道呢 |
| 426 | what's going to happen? | 会发生什么事? |
| 427 | Maybe it's better to do it before Trump leaves office. | 也许在特朗普离开办公室之前最好还是这么做. |
| 428 | We don't know. | 我们不知道。 |
| 429 | Right. | 对 |
| 430 | Climate, another wild card. | 气候,另一个野生卡。 |
| 431 | You could have disasters. | 你可能会有灾难。 |
| 432 | Right. | 对 |
| 433 | So there are all kinds | 所以有各种各样的 |
| 434 | of forces that make this a perilous moment with bond prices going up. | 导致债券价格上升的危机时刻 |
| 435 | Right. | 对 |
| 436 | Like | 喜欢 |
| 437 | yields going up. | 产量上升。 |
| 438 | Yi升. | |
| 439 | All kinds of problems at the moment. | 现时种种烦恼. |
| 440 | Right. | 对 |
| 441 | And a basic thing about, well, there are two questions, I think. | 一个基本的问题,嗯,我想有两个问题。 |
| 442 | Is this a bubble? | 这是泡泡吗? |
| 443 | And I'm just saying, I create a bubble indicator that has all of these things. | 我只是说,我创造了一个有这些东西的泡沫指标。 |
| 444 | And this is a bubble measured analogous to the 2029 bubble in that order of magnitude in terms of | 这个气泡与2029年的气泡类似 其数量顺序是 |
| 445 | take that mix. | 拿着这个组合。 |
| 446 | But let's say I'm wrong. | 但是,让我们假设我错了。 |
| 447 | But is it less or more of a bubble than 2008? | 但是它比2008年少或更多吗? |
| 448 | The 2008 was less of a bubble. | 2008年不是个泡沫。 |
| 449 | It had a big debt than 2000 in terms of that dynamic of a bubble. | 从泡沫的动态来看,它的债务比2000年大。 |
| 450 | On your bubble indicators. | 在你的气泡指标。 |
| 451 | There was a housing. | 有个房子 |
| 452 | 2000 was | 2000年为 |
| 453 | a bigger bubble than 2008, which was a big bubble because of the debt. | 比2008年还大的泡泡 因为债台高筑 |
| 454 | The subject was different. | 问题不同。 |
| 455 | The subject in 2008 was, it was houses. | 2008年的主题是房屋。 |
| 456 | It was real estate. | 这是房地产。 |
| 457 | And it was structured in that way. | 它的结构是这样的。 |
| 458 | And so that was a bubble that was going to break. | 因此,这是一个泡沫 将要打破。 |
| 459 | But if you're taking the enthusiasm, | 但是如果你的热情, |
| 460 | the whole stock market thing and everything in that, the bigger bubble was also in 2029. | 整个股票市场的事情和所有的事情, 更大的泡沫也是在2029年。 |
| 461 | But anyway, the point I'm trying to say is those conditions exist. | 但总之,我想说的是这些条件确实存在。 |
| 462 | But I think the question, | 但我认为问题 |
| 463 | when we know that and we also know that everything is one thing, everything is AI, | 当我们知道这一点,我们也知道 一切都是一回事,一切都是AI, |
| 464 | okay, then what an individual should do is don't make my everything AI, right? | 好吧,那么一个人应该做的是 不要让我的一切AI,对不对? |
| 465 | Whether you know, | 无论你知道, |
| 466 | whether you want to bet for it or whether you want to bet against it, don't make one thing that is | 无论你想赌它,还是你想赌它, 不要做一件事,这是 |
| 467 | highly volatile and is leveraged and so on your one thing bet. | 极易挥发 被利用 以你个人的赌注 |
| 468 | Let me ask you a couple of sort of | 我问你几个问题 |
| 469 | questions that push against this hypothesis. | 与这个假设相反的问题 |
| 470 | So one would be Ray, we've had the situation for | 所以,一个是雷, 我们已经得到了的情况 |
| 471 | bubble for a while and we've had a bunch of exogenous shocks, right? | 泡泡一阵子了 我们经历了一堆外来冲击 对吧? |
| 472 | We had tariffs, | 我们有关税, |
| 473 | we've had the Iran War, we had the situation with situational awareness. | 我们经历了伊朗战争, 我们经历了局势意识。 |
| 474 | None of this has even | 这一切都没有 甚至 |
| 475 | seemed to have come close to popping the bubble. | 似乎已经接近泡泡。 |
| 476 | Like we're just going to get through the, we had | 碞钩и璶筁妓 |
| 477 | SpaceX IPO 对吧? | |
| 478 | We had a lot of wealth and money. | 我们有很多的财富和金钱。 |
| 479 | We're going to get through the Anthropic | 我们要穿过雅典人 |
| 480 | IPO 公开AI IPO. | |
| 481 | Why can't the dynamics that have sustained the economics of the last year | 为什么维持去年经济的动态不能 |
| 482 | sustain it for the next three? | 维持下去? |
| 483 | I would ask each person who asked that question to, first of all, | 我要问每一个问这个问题的人,首先, |
| 484 | understand the mechanics and see the charts. | 了解力学,看图. |
| 485 | So let me give, let's say what I would say is | 所以,让我给, 让我们说我要说的是 |
| 486 | the debt bubble. | 债务泡沫。 |
| 487 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 488 | Let me start off with the bond market. | 让我从债券市场开始 |
| 489 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 490 | That's the opposite. | 则相反. |
| 491 | There's | 还有 |
| 492 | asset and liability. | 资产和负债。 |
| 493 | The asset is the bond. | 资产是债券。 |
| 494 | The liability is the debt. | 负债是债务。 |
| 495 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 496 | And so what I would | 所以我会 |
| 497 | say is, okay, the mechanics, I want to tell you, let's say, let's start with the US government, | 说,好吧,机械,我想告诉你, 让我们从美国政府开始, |
| 498 | but we can go beyond that. | 但我们可以超越这一点。 |
| 499 | And what we would say is the way it works is that it works the same for | 我们要说的是,它的工作方式是 它的工作原理一样 |
| 500 | the government as it works for you and I with debt, meaning you take it on, you've got to pay it back | 对你和我来说,政府是有效的, 意味着你承担,你必须偿还 |
| 501 | terms. | 条件。 |
| 502 | And the only difference is the government can print money. | 而唯一的区别是政府可以印钱. |
| 503 | And so what happens is the way | 所以,会发生什么 的方式 |
| 504 | these come to an end is very simply two things happen, that the credit systems like the circulatory | 这些都结束了 只是发生了两件事 信用系统如循环系统 |
| 505 | system. | 系统。 |
| 506 | And what happens is if money and credit is lent and it earns more than it's cost the service | 如果借钱和贷款 收入比服务成本高 |
| 507 | that debt, then you have a healthy system. | 债务,然后你有一个健康的系统。 |
| 508 | So providing debt and leverage is good if it produces | 所以,提供债务和杠杆 如果它产生 |
| 509 | the incomes that are necessary to service that and the world goes on to a better place. | 为世界服务所必需的收入将进入一个更美好的地方。 |
| 510 | And you could see that in the numbers that I seeing how much debt service is creeping up on | 你可以看到,从我看到 有多少还本付息 正在逐渐增加 |
| 511 | spending. | 开支。 |
| 512 | When debt service increases relative to spending, like you or for the government, | 当债务还本付息相对于支出增加时 像你或政府一样 |
| 513 | that means that your ability to spend is less because you have this debt service payment | 也就是说,你的花费能力就更少了 因为你还本付息 |
| 514 | and it's like plaque in the circulatory system building up. | 就像是循环系统积聚的牌子 |
| 515 | And then that's what causes an | 然后这就是导致 |
| 516 | economic heart attack. | 经济心脏病发作。 |
| 517 | OK, that can be watched. | 好吧,这可以被观看。 |
| 518 | I'm going to go through those numbers in a second | 我马上去查那些数字 |
| 519 | for you quickly. | 为您快速。 |
| 520 | Great. | 不错 |
| 521 | OK, the second thing is there's a supply and a demand. | 好吧,第二件事是 有供求。 |
| 522 | In other words, | 也就是说, |
| 523 | every year you have to if you're running a deficit, that means you have to sell your debt. | 每年都要卖掉你的债 |
| 524 | And that means there's a certain quantity of it and there's a certain buyers of that debt | 这意味着有一定数量 并且有特定的买主 债务 |
| 525 | and do they want to buy it. | 他们想买它吗? |
| 526 | And so either of those two things can cause a problem. | 所以这两件事都会引起问题。 |
| 527 | And you can monitor that just like your cardiologist could monitor, you know, that | 你可以像心脏科医生一样 监视 |
| 528 | plaque building up in your. | 在你身上盖的牌子 |
| 529 | OK, so here are the numbers. | 好吧,这是数字。 |
| 530 | The United States government | 美国政府 |
| 531 | spends about seven trillion dollars a year and takes in about five trillion dollars a year. | 每年花费约7万亿美元,每年花费约5万亿美元. |
| 532 | So its deficit of two trillion, it means it's overspending by about 40 percent. | 因此,它的赤字是两万亿, 这意味着它超支了大约40%。 |
| 533 | And it's done | 都结束了 |
| 534 | these deficits for a long time. | 这些赤字长期存在。 |
| 535 | So the amount of debt that it has is six times the amount of | 所以,它的债务金额 是六倍于 |
| 536 | money that's coming in. | 钱来了 |
| 537 | Right. | 对 |
| 538 | And not only do you have so your interest on that debt has now | 不仅你现在对那笔债的利息 |
| 539 | become half of that deficit, it's about a trillion dollars, two trillion dollars you got to sell | 成为一半的赤字, 它大约一万亿美元, 两万亿美元 你不得不出售 |
| 540 | about a trillion of that to pay the interest, the interest rate. | 大约一万亿美元 支付利息,利率。 |
| 541 | But that's the smaller number. | 但这个数字还比较少 |
| 542 | The bigger number is every year you also have to there's about 10 trillion maturing. | 更大的数字是每年你还必须有 大约10万亿的成熟。 |
| 543 | OK, | 罢 |
| 544 | that means I have to resell. | 这意味着我不得不转售。 |
| 545 | OK, now you could see that and you can project that and you can see it. | OK,现在你可以看到, 你可以投影,你可以看到它。 |
| 546 | So it's an answer to your question on the first one. | 所以这是你第一个问题的答案 |
| 547 | It's like somebody who has had a lot of | 这就像一个人 谁有过很多 |
| 548 | they say, I haven't had a heart attack yet. | 他们说我还没有心脏病发作 |
| 549 | OK, I I'm eating and I'm having the fatting food. | 好吧,我正在吃,我正在吃脂肪的食物。 |
| 550 | I'm enjoying smoking. | 我很喜欢抽烟。 |
| 551 | I'm drinking. | 我在喝东西 |
| 552 | OK, I haven't been outside this whatever it is. | 好吧,我还没有出去 不管它是什么。 |
| 553 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 554 | And I'm | и琌 |
| 555 | just like the doctor who was saying, OK, I can show you the plaque and you decide what you want to | 就像那个医生说的,好吧,我可以给你看牌匾,然后你决定你想要什么 |
| 556 | do. | 说吧 |
| 557 | OK, and I and I do the projections year by year of what that thing looks like. | OK,我和我会做预测 逐年的 东西是什么样子。 |
| 558 | And I'm saying | 我说 |
| 559 | that you're likely to have a heart attack. | 你可能会心脏病发作 |
| 560 | And please don't get comfort in the fact that you | 请不要因为你 |
| 561 | haven't had a heart attack yet. | 还没有心脏病发作 |
| 562 | OK, because you can go back and do those numbers and you could see | 好吧,因为你可以回去 做那些数字,你可以看到 |
| 563 | I'm also telling you that the supply demand situation is is a problem. | 我也告诉你,供应需求状况是个问题. |
| 564 | The demand is slipping. | 需求正在下降。 |
| 565 | OK, one third of our buying of the debt is foreigners. | 好吧,我们买债的三分之一是外国人。 |
| 566 | The biggest foreigners were China | 最大的外国人是中国 |
| 567 | and Japan. | 与日本的比较 |
| 568 | Oh, and with for various reasons, foreigners are having concerns about the amount | 哦,出于各种原因,外国人对金额有顾虑 |
| 569 | of debt and they're also having concerns about the conflict that is existing in the world. | 他们也担心世界上存在的冲突 |
| 570 | And could they be sanctioned, meaning you might not make those debt payments the way Russia was | 你可能不会像俄罗斯那样偿还债务 |
| 571 | sanctioned and and so on. | 制裁等等。 |
| 572 | Could you do that, which is weakening the foreign demand and Japan, | 你能这样做吗,这正在削弱 外国的需求和日本, |
| 573 | for its own reason, I can't I won't digress into and other countries are thinking about | 我无法潜入别的国家 考虑 |
| 574 | and then they need that. | 然后他们需要这个。 |
| 575 | So so that becomes the dynamic. | 因此,这成为了动力。 |
| 576 | So we have a supply that's going like | ┮иΤ贺 |
| 577 | this and we have a weakening demand. | 这,我们有一个弱的需求。 |
| 578 | So we have both of those two classic problems. | 所以我们有两个典型的问题。 |
| 579 | And and I | 还有我 |
| 580 | don't believe me. | 别相信我 |
| 581 | You don't have to believe me. | 你没必要相信我 |
| 582 | I'm just putting it out there. | 我只是把它放出来。 |
| 583 | You could look at | 你可以看着 |
| 584 | the X-ray. | X光线 |
| 585 | You could decide what you know for yourself. | 你可以决定自己知道什么 |
| 586 | Does that make sense? | 这有道理吗? |
| 587 | Let's make an | 让我们做一个 |
| 588 | analogy, Dr. Dalia. | 类比,大丽亚博士。 |
| 589 | So one of the things that the AI optimists would say here is understand, | 因此,AI乐观主义者在这里说的一个事情是理解的, |
| 590 | you know, you spend seven, you take in five, you know, decreasing demand to buy debt, | 你知道,你花了7,你收了5,你知道, 降低需求购买债务, |
| 591 | you have extreme servicing costs. | 服务费用很高 |
| 592 | But we are about to enter an entirely new era where it's | 但我们即将进入一个全新的时代 |
| 593 | not that productivity will increase X percent. | 而不是生产率会提高X%。 |
| 594 | It'll increase 10 X right where we're going to | 它会增加10X 我们要去的地方 |
| 595 | be able to do things. | 能作诸事. |
| 596 | We're going to have, you know, geniuses in a data center, right? | 我们将会有,你知道, 天才在一个数据中心,对不对? |
| 597 | We are | 我们是 |
| 598 | going to have an entirely new world of work, and we're going to be able to sort of through | 将有一个全新的工作世界, 我们将可以 排序通过 |
| 599 | increased productivity, get our way out of it. | 提高生产率,让我们摆脱它。 |
| 600 | And in fact, the reason why this doesn't fit into | 而事实上,原因 这不符合 |
| 601 | your models is that there's never been. | 你的模特儿从没有过 |
| 602 | No, it's always happened. | 不,它总是发生。 |
| 603 | There's never been a productivity | 从来没有一个生产力 |
| 604 | and technological improvement like this. | 科技进步 |
| 605 | So that is what I would say to the doctor. | 所以这就是我要对医生说的。 |
| 606 | I would say, | 我会说, |
| 607 | Dr. Dalia, I understand it's bad. | Dalia医生,我理解很糟 |
| 608 | I've got plaque building up. | 我有牌楼了 |
| 609 | I understand. | 我理解,我懂你说什么 |
| 610 | I've been outside. | 我出去过 |
| 611 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 612 | am smoking cigarettes, right? | 抽烟,对不对? |
| 613 | But there's a new treatment. | 却有新治. |
| 614 | It's in the works. | 于诸业中. |
| 615 | It's about to get | 马上就要到了 |
| 616 | approved by the FDA. | 由林业发展局核准。 |
| 617 | I'm good. | 我没事 |
| 618 | Right. | 对 |
| 619 | So just to the mechanics, | 因此,只是对机械, |
| 620 | if the incomes rise by enough that it becomes easy for the government and others to pay that debt, | 如果收入增长到足以让政府和其他人轻松偿还债务, |
| 621 | then, of course, you will have the results that you're talking about. | 那么,当然,你会得到你所说的结果。 |
| 622 | And now we're dealing with | 现在我们面对的是 |
| 623 | the actual likelihood of that and the probability of that and what has to happen and what has to | 实际可能性和可能性,以及必须发生和必须发生的情况 |
| 624 | happen when. | 什么时候发生? |
| 625 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 626 | So first of all, one of the issues that's happening is that it creates a very | 因此,首先,一个正在发生的问题 就是它创造了一个非常 |
| 627 | large differences in wealth. | 财富差别很大 |
| 628 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 629 | And so with those differences in wealth, the question is | 因此,随着这些财富的差异,问题是 |
| 630 | that there'll be, we see how it's happening in terms of that disparity in wealth. | (笑声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声(掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌 |
| 631 | And we can | 我们可以 |
| 632 | expect, nobody knows exactly, but there are those who own the stocks and there's the thing we talked | 期待,没有人知道 确切的,但有人 谁拥有的股票 有的东西,我们谈 |
| 633 | about about wealth and all of that. | 关于财富和一切。 |
| 634 | And that's happening. | 并发生。 |
| 635 | And so A, the three questions are, | 所以,A,三个问题是, |
| 636 | how does that wealth transfer take place? | 财富转移是如何发生的? |
| 637 | The average household has, and the government debt | 平均住户和政府债务 |
| 638 | part of it is about $280,000 per household. | 其中一部分大约为每个家庭280 000美元。 |
| 639 | So how do they get that with that map? | 他们怎么拿到地图的? |
| 640 | So you have to | 所以你必须 |
| 641 | get through, if you get the productivity miracle, which is converted into income. | 穿过,如果你得到 生产力奇迹,它转化为收入。 |
| 642 | Correct. | 没错 |
| 643 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 644 | This has got to be converted into enough income to cover that. | 这必须转换成足够的收入来支付。 |
| 645 | In the right amount of time, | 在正确的时间里, |
| 646 | okay. | 还好。 |
| 647 | Then you have to make sure that how does the government get that for its income | 那你得确保政府的收入是怎样得到的 |
| 648 | or others get it? | 还是别人知道? |
| 649 | Is that through taxes? | 这是通过税收吗? |
| 650 | Is that going to be worked out politically? | 这事会在政治上解决吗? |
| 651 | And how quickly is that going to take place relative to the time horizon that's needed to | 时间跨度是多少? |
| 652 | take place in order for that to happen? | 是为了实现这一点吗? |
| 653 | So you need a productivity boom. | 所以,你需要一个生产力繁荣。 |
| 654 | Then you also need a | 那你也需要一个 |
| 655 | income tax boom. | 所得税繁荣。 |
| 656 | You need to come into- You need the income. | 你得进来... 你需要的收入。 |
| 657 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 658 | So when we're going to get | 所以当我们得到 |
| 659 | income, where are we going to get that money from in time? | 收入,我们从哪里得到这些钱的时间? |
| 660 | How much is it going to be and so on? | 要多少钱,等等? |
| 661 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 662 | So please go through that line by line and take a look at what that is year by year | 所以请逐行走一遍 逐年看看是什么 |
| 663 | and what you think is going to happen in order to achieve that. | 而你认为会发生什么 来达到这个目的。 |
| 664 | By the way, a lot of productivity | 顺便说一句,很多生产力 |
| 665 | miracle is not transferred to income. | 奇迹不会转移到收入。 |
| 666 | Right. | 对 |
| 667 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 668 | Because there's always the competition | 因为总是有竞争 |
| 669 | and there's always the means that it becomes cheaper. | 并且总是有手段 使它变得便宜。 |
| 670 | There's a price competition and so on. | 有价竞争等. |
| 671 | But we can agree on the mechanics of that. | 但我们可以就这个方法达成一致。 |
| 672 | Right. | 对 |
| 673 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 674 | What we would have to say is, | 我们不得不说, |
| 675 | at least I would look at it is, wow, that is a scary picture. | 至少我会看它,哇, 这是一个可怕的照片。 |
| 676 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 677 | So maybe, I mean, let's not, | 所以也许,我的意思是,让我们不要, |
| 678 | where are we five years and how is it distributed and how does all that work? | 我们的五年是在哪里,它是如何分配的,所有这些如何运作? |
| 679 | And we're going to be | 我们将会是 |
| 680 | there. | 这里 |
| 681 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 682 | If you want to bet on that, you can bet on that. | 如果你想打赌,你可以打赌。 |
| 683 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 684 | When I look at that, I think, | 当我看着,我想, |
| 685 | okay, at a minimum, we better worry about that. | 好吧,至少,我们最好担心这一点。 |
| 686 | Let me ask you another question that I've heard | 让我再问你一个我听到的问题 |
| 687 | you talk about that I think is fascinating. | 你说我觉得很迷人 |
| 688 | So OpenAI, maybe this past spring, there was some | 所以OpenAI,也许这个春天,有一些 |
| 689 | talk that they thought maybe the government should have a share in OpenAI, have a stake, | 说他们觉得政府应该在OpenAI 拥有股份, |
| 690 | 10% stake like they have in Intel. | 10%的赌注和情报一样 |
| 691 | Maybe there should be a sovereign wealth fund where United | 也许应该有一个主权财富基金 在那里联合 |
| 692 | States government takes stakes in the big AI companies. | 美国政府对AI大公司负责。 |
| 693 | You like this idea, right? | 你喜欢这个主意,对吧? |
| 694 | I want to be clear. | 我想说清楚 |
| 695 | We're coming into a new world order. | 我们即将进入一个新的世界秩序。 |
| 696 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 697 | We are in a new world order. | 我们在一个新的世界秩序中。 |
| 698 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 699 | And during such times of international competition to believe in entirely a free market system | 在这样的国际竞争时期 相信一个自由市场体系 |
| 700 | that directs everything has always never been the case and not necessarily is the best way. | 指导一切 从来没有发生过, 不一定是最好的方法。 |
| 701 | We're very much a free market. | 我们是自由市场 |
| 702 | I'm very much inclined to be free market. | 我非常倾向于自由市场。 |
| 703 | But if you make it | 但如果你来了 |
| 704 | free, then what happens is let's say consumers, they buy what they want to buy. | 免费的,然后会发生什么, 让我们说消费者, 他们买他们想要买的东西。 |
| 705 | And you might | 你可能会 |
| 706 | buy $1,200 handbags or whatever it is. | 买一千二百块的手提包或什么的 |
| 707 | And those resources may not be effective in competing | 这些资源在竞争中可能没有效力 |
| 708 | in the world where if you win the AI battle, you're going to win not only the economic, | 在世界上,如果你赢了AI战役, 你会赢得不仅仅是经济, |
| 709 | but you're going to be the battle for the military or the world dominance type of battle and so on. | 但你会成为军事战役 或世界霸权战役的战斗 |
| 710 | And so government interventions in certain ways, one can't be too black and white about this, | 所以在某些方面 政府干预 不能太黑太白 |
| 711 | in terms of forms of direction. | 就方向形式而言。 |
| 712 | Now, how that's done, how that balance is achieved is a very | 现在,如何做到这一点, 如何实现平衡是一个非常 |
| 713 | difficult thing. | 困难的事情。 |
| 714 | I do think I'm also supporting Trump accounts in Connecticut. | 我想我也支持川普在康涅狄格州的账户. |
| 715 | I'm supporting the | 我支持这个 |
| 716 | Trump accounts because I do believe- I told my son about this this morning. | 特朗普的帐号是因为我相信... 我今早告诉我儿子了 |
| 717 | He asked | 他问 |
| 718 | if we could move to Connecticut so that he could get some of the DALIO funds in his account. | 如果我们可以搬到康涅狄格州 这样他就可以得到一些DALIO的资金在他的账户。 |
| 719 | My point is that it depends on how. | 我的观点是,它取决于如何。 |
| 720 | It depends on what in terms of giving people a stake, | 这取决于什么 给人利益, |
| 721 | but also giving them understanding that this is good things. | 让他们明白这是好事 |
| 722 | And sometimes you need the | 有时候你需要 |
| 723 | government to provide a direction. | 政府提供方向。 |
| 724 | And so free market people are like my normal inclination | 所以自由市场的人就像我的正常倾向 |
| 725 | would be it's very cyclical. | 这将是非常周期性的。 |
| 726 | It's part of this big cycle thing. | 这是这个大循环的一部分。 |
| 727 | And so when you get into there, | 所以当你进入那里, |
| 728 | you need to have the government, you hope a smart government doing it well, providing those types | 你需要让政府,你希望一个聪明的政府做得很好,提供这些类型 |
| 729 | of things. | 东西。 |
| 730 | So when you say I'm in favor of it, I just wanted to explain what I think about it. | 所以当你说我赞成的时候 我只是想解释一下我的想法 |
| 731 | So, but there's also an advantage where if the government were to own 10% of Anthropic | 如果政府拥有百分之十的Anthropic |
| 732 | before Anthropic goes public, that means that only 90% of the wealth is becoming money, right? | 在Anthropic上市前, 这意味着只有90%的财富成为金钱,对不对? |
| 733 | They still have to get the money. | 他们还得拿到钱 |
| 734 | Okay, the government's where does it get its money? | 好吧,政府在哪里得到它的钱? |
| 735 | It borrows it. | 其为借. |
| 736 | It depends whether the government is paying Anthropic for the 10% stake or whether- | 这取决于政府是否支付Anthropic的10%的股份,还是... |
| 737 | You can steal it. | 你可以偷来 |
| 738 | You could have the government steal it. | 你可以让政府偷走它。 |
| 739 | That's what you're talking about. | 尔时世尊告言. |
| 740 | I'm not saying- Well, let's- Okay, we can- | 我不是说... 好吧,让我们... 好吧,我们可以... |
| 741 | I'm not in favor of the idea in general. | 我不赞成这个想法 |
| 742 | I'm certainly not in favor of stealing it. | 我当然不赞成偷它。 |
| 743 | I'm just trying to say- We could use politically correct. | 我只是想说... 我们可以用政治上的正确。 |
| 744 | Governments, I guess, don't steal. | 我猜政府不要偷东西 |
| 745 | You could have them take it. | 你可以让他们拿走它。 |
| 746 | You could have a consortium where there's a- | 你可以有一个财团 那里有一个... |
| 747 | They could take it. | 他们可以接受 |
| 748 | Government ownership. | 政府所有权。 |
| 749 | They could take it, is what you're- I'm just making the distinction- | 他们可以接受,这就是你... 我只是在区分... |
| 750 | For the record and for the listeners, I am not advocating that the government steal these | 为了记录和听众,我不主张 政府偷这些 |
| 751 | companies. | 企业。 |
| 752 | I am asking just about whether- They take them. | 我只是问一下... 他们带走他们。 |
| 753 | There are sovereign wealth funds through the world where the governments do take shares in | 世界上有主权财富基金 政府确实在其中占有份额 |
| 754 | companies, which reduces the amount of wealth that needs to be turned into money. | 公司,减少需要转化为金钱的财富。 |
| 755 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 756 | I'm just a mechanic, right? | 我只是个机械师,对吧? |
| 757 | I'm just trying to say, does the government get cash? | 我只是想说,政府有现金吗? |
| 758 | Or does it- Is it a cash thing? | 还是... 是现金吗? |
| 759 | Somebody's taking something from somebody, | 有人在偷别人的东西 |
| 760 | and I'm just a mechanic trying to say- This is what I love about your principles | 我只是个机械师 想说... 这就是我喜欢你的原则 |
| 761 | and your mechanics. | 还有你的机械师 |
| 762 | Let me ask you this then. | 那我问你这个 |
| 763 | If Dr. Dalio is put in charge, so midterms pass, | 如果Dalio医生负责 所以中期考试通过 |
| 764 | Trump says, you know what? | 川普说,你知道吗? |
| 765 | Next two years, I'm going to do everything I can to get the | 接下来的两年,我会竭尽所能 来得到 |
| 766 | America's fiscal house in order to make sure there's not an AI bubble that bursts, | 美国的财政之家 为了保证没有AI泡沫暴发, |
| 767 | and to make sure that we're set up as best as possible in the United States | 确保我们在美国得到最好的安排 |
| 768 | to be the AI economic superpower vis-a-vis China. | 成为相对于中国的AI经济超级大国. |
| 769 | It says, Mr. Dalio, you are now in | 上面写着 Dalio先生 你现在在 |
| 770 | charge of America economic policy. | 负责美国经济政策 |
| 771 | You have no obstacles. | 你没有障碍 |
| 772 | You can do whatever you want. | 能随所欲. |
| 773 | What do you do? | 你们是做什么的? |
| 774 | I'm still | 我还在 |
| 775 | dealing within the political system, right? | 在政治体制内交易,对不对? |
| 776 | No. | 没有 |
| 777 | Political system, you're doing whatever | 政治制度,你做什么 |
| 778 | you're doing. | 你这样做。 |
| 779 | Everybody agrees. | 每个人都同意。 |
| 780 | I know, but here's the reason I'm asking | 我知道,但这就是我问的原因 |
| 781 | the question. | 问题。 |
| 782 | As I went down to Washington, I know leaders on both sides, and I'd say | 当我去华盛顿时,我知道双方的领导人,我会说 |
| 783 | almost everybody agrees with that, with the explanation in the book and the mechanics. | 几乎每个人都同意这一点, 书中的解释和力学。 |
| 784 | By the way, it is to your great credit that I've spent a lot of time with you, | 顺便说一句,我花了很多时间 与你共度难忘 |
| 785 | and I have no idea who you would vote for, who you voted for in the last election. | 我不知道你会投谁的票 你在上次选举中投谁的票 |
| 786 | Right. | 对 |
| 787 | Just to let you know, I'm apolitical. | 只是想告诉你,我非政治性。 |
| 788 | We can get into the discussion of what that means, | 我们可以开始讨论那意味着什么, |
| 789 | but I'm trying to answer your other question first. | 但我想先回答你另一个问题 |
| 790 | What I wrote in here is what I call the | 我在这里写的是我所说的 |
| 791 | 3% solution. | 3%的解决方案。 |
| 792 | The 3% solution is you have to get your deficit down to less than 3% of GDP | 3%的解决方案是,你必须把赤字降到GDP的3%以下 |
| 793 | to not have it compound and more plaque billed. | 没有它复合和更多的牌照。 |
| 794 | I don't really care whether it's left or right. | 我不管是左还是右 |
| 795 | Of course, I have my thoughts and preferences, but I think the argument of whether- | 当然,我有我的想法和喜好, 但我认为的论点是... |
| 796 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 797 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 798 | What I'm saying is it's like a ship that's headed to the rocks, | 我的意思是,它就像一艘飞到岩石的船, |
| 799 | and we can agree that you're headed to the rocks on the ship. | 我们同意你要去船上的岩石 |
| 800 | I don't care if they turn left or | 我不管他们是不是左转 |
| 801 | if they turn right. | 如果他们转右。 |
| 802 | I'm just saying get the 3% of that. | 我只是说,得到的3%。 |
| 803 | That's uncontroversial, Scott Besson | 这是无可争议的,斯科特贝松 |
| 804 | believes this is 3%. | 相信这是3%。 |
| 805 | The others believe 3%. | 其人信为3%. |
| 806 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 807 | I said basically, do it proportionately. | 我说,基本上,按比例做。 |
| 808 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 809 | In order to do that, raise the taxes by 4% or 5% of whatever and cut your spending by | 为了做到这一点,将税收提高4%或5%,并削减开支 |
| 810 | 4% or 5%. | 4%或5%. |
| 811 | Just as long as you get there because otherwise you're going to hit the rocks, | 只要你到了那里 否则你会撞到石头 |
| 812 | and everybody agrees. | 每个人都同意 |
| 813 | But the answer that I get is from both sides, you have to understand that | 但我得到的答案是 双方,你必须明白 |
| 814 | in order to have the mandate to be in government and have a say, I have to make | 为了获得执政权 并有发言权 我必须让 |
| 815 | a couple of promises. | 几个承诺。 |
| 816 | I will not raise your taxes, and I will not cut your benefits. | 我不会提高你的税收,也不会削减你的好处。 |
| 817 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 818 | When I'm asked the question, are you giving me the authority to say screw the political system? | 我被问到这个问题的时候,你是否授权我说去搞政治制度? |
| 819 | Yes, I am giving you the authority because otherwise you can't do it. | 是的,我给了你权力 因为否则你做不到 |
| 820 | I'm giving you | 我给你 |
| 821 | authority to say screw the political system, and I want you to design your policies with the | 有权说去他妈的政治制度 我要你用 |
| 822 | maximum thought to how it will affect AI and America's position in AI strategic competition. | 以及美国在AI战略竞争中的地位。 |
| 823 | I think you have to make the country good for everybody. | 我认为你必须让国家为所有人造福。 |
| 824 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 825 | Therefore, taxes in some way have to be a vehicle that the majority of the people | 因此,税收在某种程度上必须成为大多数人的工具。 |
| 826 | are going to benefit. | 将受益。 |
| 827 | Otherwise, we don't have a system that's going to operate well. | 否则,我们没有能够良好运行的系统. |
| 828 | That AI has to succeed. | AI必须成功。 |
| 829 | Therefore, in various ways, there probably would be some taxes associated | 因此,在各种方面,可能会有一些税收 |
| 830 | with, and it doesn't have to be just AI, it could be in its various ways, some ways in which | 而且它不一定只是人工智能, 它可以是 不同的方式,一些方式 |
| 831 | you can, we're not worrying about the blow up, and we're not worrying about the unemployment issues. | 你可以,我们不担心爆炸, 我们也不担心失业问题。 |
| 832 | You have to win that war. | 你必须赢得那场战争。 |
| 833 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 834 | Then in winning that war, you have to achieve that in a way that | 那么在赢得这场战争时 你必须以某种方式实现 |
| 835 | can be sustainable through votes and that most of the country benefits. | 通过投票是可持续的,而且该国大多数国家都从中受益。 |
| 836 | Therefore, there's going to | 因此,将 |
| 837 | be some taxes that are associated with that and to not get technical. | 和不获得技术。 |
| 838 | There's a lot of technicalities | 有很多技术问题 |
| 839 | to taxes as to which ones in terms and how that works, but there has to be that. | 税 关于哪些 和如何运作, 但必须有。 |
| 840 | The problem that | 问题 |
| 841 | it is, is there's still not enough money. | 是的,还没有足够的钱。 |
| 842 | Can you tax the AI companies? | 你能对AI公司征税吗? |
| 843 | Can that make | 会不会 |
| 844 | a meaningful impact? | 有意义的影响? |
| 845 | They're not earning money. | 他们没有赚钱。 |
| 846 | Well, they're earning enough money to pay a certain | 他们赚的钱够付一定的 |
| 847 | amount of taxes. | 税额。 |
| 848 | No, no, no. | 不,不,没有。 |
| 849 | I'm just saying- | 我只是说... |
| 850 | Let's go back to our previous thing. | 复说前事. |
| 851 | They can pay their taxes through equity to the US government. | 他们可以通过股本向美国政府交税. |
| 852 | Okay, but that's still not money. | 好吧,但那还是不是钱。 |
| 853 | Fine, but you've actually, then you sort of, | 好吧,但你实际上, 然后你有点, |
| 854 | I guess you've, no, I haven't solved the problem. | 我想你已经,没有,我还没有解决问题。 |
| 855 | Correct. | 没错 |
| 856 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 857 | I'm just trying to say, okay, if you want to make it like Wampum, that what you could do is | 我只是想说,好吧, 如果你想让它像Wampum, 你可以做的是 |
| 858 | you could take the stock and you can go to some guy who's having problems paying his bill and | 你可以拿盘子 你可以去找一个付账有问题的人 |
| 859 | you're going to say, I'm going to give you the stock and if somebody can trade in the stock for | 你要说,我把股票给你 如果有人能用股票交换 |
| 860 | food in the store- Right, right. | 店里的食物 对 对 对 |
| 861 | I'm trying to buy a banana. | 我想买个香蕉 |
| 862 | I don't have a dollar in my pocket, but I've got a little fractional share in Anthropic and I have | 我口袋里没有一块钱 但我在Anthropic有一点分红 |
| 863 | the banana. | 那个香蕉 |
| 864 | It's not going to work. | 终无功用. |
| 865 | So we're still having to go back to | 所以我们还得回去 |
| 866 | how that's going to work exactly, right? | 那会如何运作,对不对? |
| 867 | Right. | 对 |
| 868 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 869 | So you are implementing these | 所以,你执行这些 |
| 870 | policies. | 政策。 |
| 871 | Let me ask you about the strategic competition with China because you spend a lot | 我问你与中国的战略竞争 因为你花了很多钱 |
| 872 | of time in China. | 时间在中国。 |
| 873 | What do people who study AI in the United States get wrong about the way China | 在美国研究AI的人对中国的方式有什么错误? |
| 874 | 考虑AI? | |
| 875 | The main things to think about AI, the way China thinks about, Chinese leaders | 思考AI的主要事物,中国思考的方式,中国领导人 |
| 876 | think about it, is a few ways. | 想想看,这是几个方法。 |
| 877 | First of all, we have very much of a profit-driven system. | 首先,我们有一个非常由利润驱动的制度。 |
| 878 | They view AI, generally speaking, like electricity or running water or infrastructure, build roads | 他们一般认为,大赦国际像电力或自来水或基础设施一样,修建道路。 |
| 879 | and railroads and so on, as a means by which profit is not the main objective. | 以及铁路等,作为利润不是主要目标的手段. |
| 880 | Profit is a | 利润是 |
| 881 | good thing. | 好东西 |
| 882 | It's a rationing thing, but the main objective is the efficiency of everything. | 这是一个配给问题,但主要目标是万物的效率. |
| 883 | So | 这么说 |
| 884 | everybody should have AI, okay? | 每个人都应该有AI,好吗? |
| 885 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 886 | Just like everybody should have electricity and so on. | 就像每个人都应该有电等等。 |
| 887 | So the cost of that is a secondary thought, | 所以,代价是一个次要的想法, |
| 888 | let's say. | 这么说吧 |
| 889 | And so that's why the productivity impact, that's part of it. | 这就是为什么生产力的影响,这就是它的一部分。 |
| 890 | Then they think of it | 然后他们想到了 |
| 891 | as how do they compete and use AI in competing in the world markets? | 他们如何在世界市场上竞争和使用AI? |
| 892 | So the second of these three, | 所以这3个中的第二个 |
| 893 | I would say, is how do they put AI into manufactured goods and so on, that frontier model and going to | 我想说,他们是如何把AI 用于制造品等等, 那个前沿模型,然后去 |
| 894 | the highest levels of capabilities is not where most of the benefit is. | 最高水平的能力不是大多数好处所在。 |
| 895 | Of course, they want to | 当然,他们想 |
| 896 | do that in the best possible way, but using it and raising living standards, so including AI, | 尽最大可能做到这一点,但利用它并提高生活水平,因此包括大赦国际, |
| 897 | simpler, cheaper versions of AI in manufactured products. | 在制成品中更简单,更便宜的AI版本. |
| 898 | The Chinese right now own 32% of world | 现在的中国人拥有世界的32% |
| 899 | manufacturing, manufactured goods, more than the United States, Germany, and Japan combined in | 制造业、制成品,比美国、德国和日本 |
| 900 | terms of manufactured goods. | 制成品的条件。 |
| 901 | They're very competitive in the world markets. | 它们在世界市场上非常有竞争力. |
| 902 | They're thinking, | 他们在想, |
| 903 | how do I compete with that and use AI in that way? | 我如何与它竞争 并用AI的方式? |
| 904 | And then they also know that it's the big, | 然后他们也知道这是大, |
| 905 | whether it's used for economic warfare or military warfare, it's the thing that you | 无论是经济战还是军事战,都是你 |
| 906 | have to have in order to be effective. | 必须要有才能有效。 |
| 907 | Let me wind this down, Ray. | 让我把这事处理掉 雷 |
| 908 | I've used | 我用过 |
| 909 | Digital Ray. | 数字雷. |
| 910 | It's an AI avatar. | 爱尔阿凡达. |
| 911 | You can ask questions. | 你可以问问题。 |
| 912 | I asked it to help me prepare for | 我叫它来帮我准备 |
| 913 | things to ask you in this interview. | 采访时要问你的事 |
| 914 | What are you doing to make AI more accessible to people, | 你做什么使AI更容易为人们所利用, |
| 915 | to investors, to others? | 给投资者,给其他人? |
| 916 | I'm at a stage in my life where my number one priority is to pass along | 我正处于人生的阶段,我的首要任务就是传递 |
| 917 | whatever I have that might be of value. | 无论我有什么价值 |
| 918 | To some extent, it's these ideas, and to some extent, | 在某种程度上,这是这些想法, 在某种程度上, |
| 919 | it's philanthropic or whatever. | 这是慈善还是什么的。 |
| 920 | Related to that is AI and investing. | 与此相关的是大赦国际和投资。 |
| 921 | I want to make available | 我想提供 |
| 922 | everybody having the ability to maximize the usage of that the way that I have done and creating, | 每个人都能用我的方式 和创造的方式去利用它, |
| 923 | therefore, the vehicle or the means by which there's a combination of education, but also | 因此,有教育结合的载体或手段,但也 |
| 924 | tremendous enablement that can come through an AI platform that can be effective. | 能够通过一个可以有效使用的人工智能平台实现的巨大能力。 |
| 925 | How is that going to work? | 怎么会这样? |
| 926 | There's going to be an AI platform that anybody can use to structure | 会有人工智能平台 任何人都可以用来构建 |
| 927 | their- That's what my hope is. | 他们... 这就是我的希望。 |
| 928 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 929 | Well, let me ask you another question. | 让我再问你一个问题 |
| 930 | You wrote this wonderful book, Principles, and it's not just | 你写了一本很棒的书 原则 不仅仅是 |
| 931 | principles that you used for your investment. | 用于投资的原则。 |
| 932 | It's principles on how to live. | 这是如何生活的原则。 |
| 933 | That's one of | 这是其中之一 |
| 934 | the things I like about it. | 我喜欢的东西。 |
| 935 | Tell me what advice you would have for a young person. | 告诉我你对年轻人有什么建议 |
| 936 | My kids, | 我的孩子们 |
| 937 | let's say they're 18, 16, and 12. | 假设是18、16和12岁 |
| 938 | What advice would you give them about the world they're | 你会给他们什么建议 关于他们的世界 |
| 939 | going into that's different from the advice you would have given someone 15 years ago? | 和15年前你给别人的建议不一样? |
| 940 | I don't think it's much different. | 亦无甚处不同. |
| 941 | I would say, as I relate to how is it different, I would say, | 我要说,关于它有什么不同,我要说, |
| 942 | you have to be on the cutting edge of the AI wave. | 你必须在AI波的前沿。 |
| 943 | You have to be on that crest of the wave, | 你必须在波峰上, |
| 944 | or you're going to be drowning in the wave. | 否则你会在波浪中淹死 |
| 945 | I would say the advice is the same for life. | 我会说这个建议对人生来说是一样的 |
| 946 | By the way, I think everybody has their own principles and decides, but there are certain | 顺便说一句,我认为每个人都有自己的原则和决定,但肯定的 |
| 947 | things that are true. | 真实的事 |
| 948 | First, know your nature. | 首先,知道你的本质。 |
| 949 | We all have our nature. | 我们都有自己的本性。 |
| 950 | You could have psychological | 你可以有心理学 |
| 951 | profiles of, are you adventurous? | 你是冒险者吗? |
| 952 | Are you introverted, extroverted? | 你是内向的,外向的? |
| 953 | What are your nature? | 你本性怎样? |
| 954 | We're all in pursuit of our nature. | 皆是追求本性. |
| 955 | We want things, and we have certain inclinations | 我们想要的东西,我们有某些倾向 |
| 956 | to find a path that matches that. | 找到一个匹配的路径。 |
| 957 | You found your path. | 你找到了你的路径。 |
| 958 | I found my path, and it suits it. | 我找到了我的路,它很适合它。 |
| 959 | On the way to that path, if you know your nature, and you experiment, and you learn, | 在走那条路的路上,如果你知道你的本性, 你实验,你学习, |
| 960 | and I would say a number one high principle is learning. | 我要说,第一原则就是学习。 |
| 961 | Learning comes from mistakes, | 学习来自错误, |
| 962 | and so a principle, pain plus reflection equals progress. | 因此,一个原理,痛苦加反射等于进步。 |
| 963 | As you go through these things, | 当你通过这些东西, |
| 964 | have the greatest life possible, however you determine that. | 拥有最伟大的生命,无论你决定。 |
| 965 | Make your work and your passion | 让你的工作和激情 |
| 966 | the same thing if you can. | 如果你可以的话,同样的事情。 |
| 967 | Don't forget about the money part, so might have a principle. | 别忘了钱那部分 可能有个原则 |
| 968 | Make | 制作 |
| 969 | your work and your passion the same thing, and don't forget about the money part, but don't | 你的工作和激情都一样 别忘了钱的事 |
| 970 | confuse the passion with the work if you can put those things together. | 把激情和工作混为一谈 如果你能把这些东西放在一起的话 |
| 971 | That's basically what I | 这基本上就是我 |
| 972 | would say. | 会说。 |
| 973 | It's an adventure. | 这是一个冒险。 |
| 974 | Go on the adventure. | 继续冒险吧 |
| 975 | I answered your question about what my principles | 我回答了你的问题 关于我的原则 |
| 976 | would be by that. | 这将是通过。 |
| 977 | Principles determine what you're going to go after in your life, | 原则决定你一生中要追求的是什么 |
| 978 | and they determine how you're going to go after it. | 他们决定你如何追查 |
| 979 | I don't see any difference between work and | 我看不出工作与 |
| 980 | life principles. | 生活原则。 |
| 981 | It's still like you got your principles, and what makes you successful in | 这就像你有你的原则, 是什么让你成功 |
| 982 | what you're going after. | 你接下来要做什么? |
| 983 | When you're speaking to your children, anyone speaking to the children, | 当你跟你的孩子说话,任何人说话的孩子, |
| 984 | there are these general principles that probably are good advice for them to consider. | 有一些一般原则可能是他们需要考虑的好建议。 |
| 985 | Yeah, I think that's right. | 是的,我想这是正确的。 |
| 986 | Last question, which I ask all my guests. | 最后一个问题,我问所有客人。 |
| 987 | If you had an unlimited budget | 如果你有无限的预算 |
| 988 | and you could support anything in AI or build anything in AI, what would you do? | 你可以在AI里支持任何东西 或者在AI里建立任何东西 你会怎么做? |
| 989 | Well, what I'm doing is trying to make AI ... | 嗯,我在做什么 试图使AI... |
| 990 | I have a large budget, and I'm trying to take what | 我预算很大,我想拿什么 |
| 991 | I know, which is something about investing, and I'm trying to make it that everybody can have it | 我知道,这是关于投资的东西, 我想让每个人都能拥有它 |
| 992 | at that quality level so that they could do it at an early age. | 在质量水平上,这样他们就可以在幼年时做到这一点。 |
| 993 | I started when I was 12. | 我从12岁开始 |
| 994 | I know | и笵 |
| 995 | that you don't have to have an institution. | 你不必有机构。 |
| 996 | You don't have to have a lot of expenses. | 你不需要花很多钱 |
| 997 | You | 你们 |
| 998 | only have to have criteria in your head that you think through, and then you can execute. | 只需要有标准 在你的大脑中,你思考通过, 然后你可以执行。 |
| 999 | My own ability, I'm trying to pass along something I learned. | 我自己的能力, 我试图传递我学到的东西。 |
| 1000 | Then I'm doing my other | 那我做另一个 |
| 1001 | things, philanthropic things and other things. | 东西,慈善的东西和其他的东西。 |
| 1002 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1003 | Well, thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1004 | We've had some pain and | 我们有过一些痛苦 |
| 1005 | some reflection in this interview, and I think lots of progress. | 在此次采访中有一些反思,我认为有许多进展. |
| 1006 | Thank you very much, Ray Dalio. | 非常感谢,雷・达柳 |
| 1007 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1008 | That was Ray Dalio. | 那是雷・达里奥 |
| 1009 | If you enjoyed this episode, you might also like my conversation with Aziz | 如果你喜欢这集,你可能也喜欢我和Aziz的对话 |
| 1010 | Mazar just three weeks ago, or my episode with Stanford's Eric Brynjolfsson from May of this | 马扎尔就在三周前 或者我和斯坦福的艾瑞克·布林乔尔松的剧集 |
| 1011 | year. | 年数。 |
| 1012 | If you want more of this podcast, please subscribe wherever you watch or listen. | 如果你想要更多的播客, 请订阅任何你观看或听。 |
| 1013 | If you're | 如果你喜欢 |
| 1014 | watching on YouTube, leave us a comment. | 在YouTube上观看,给我们留个评论. |
| 1015 | You'll probably see it. | 你可能会看到它。 |
| 1016 | 如果你听Spotify的话 | |
| 1017 | Apple, or another platform, please leave us a review. | 苹果或者其他平台 请给我们留个评论 |
| 1018 | Thank you for checking out The Most | 感谢您退房 |
| 1019 | Interesting Thing in AI. Thank you for checking out The Most Interesting Thing in AI. Thank you | 在人工智能中有趣的东西。 谢谢你在AI里检查了最有趣的东西 谢谢 |
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