华尔街对冲基金大佬Ken Griffin：AI几乎肯定已经形
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Thank you all so much for joining us this evening. | 非常感谢你们今晚能来 |
| 0:02 | And Ken, thank you for having me. | 肯 谢谢你邀请我 |
| 0:03 | It's great to be here. | 赞曰. |
| 0:04 | Thank you so much for being here today. | 谢谢你今天能来 |
| 0:06 | And look, I think it's perhaps worth starting to acknowledge. | 听着,我觉得也许值得开始承认 |
| 0:09 | This is the annual Citadel Securities Conference, | 这是一年一度的Citadel证券会议, |
| 0:11 | and just how much has changed from last year. | 以及去年的改变程度 |
| 0:14 | The world is grappling with this technological advancement | 全世界都在努力争取技术进步 |
| 0:17 | where it used to be experimentation. | 曾经是实验的地方 |
| 0:19 | Now it's solving 80-year-old math problems once unsolvable. | 现在它正在解决80年的数学问题 曾经是无法解决的。 |
展开字幕全文（1072 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thank you all so much for joining us this evening. | 非常感谢你们今晚能来 |
| 2 | And Ken, thank you for having me. | 肯 谢谢你邀请我 |
| 3 | It's great to be here. | 赞曰. |
| 4 | Thank you so much for being here today. | 谢谢你今天能来 |
| 5 | And look, I think it's perhaps worth starting to acknowledge. | 听着,我觉得也许值得开始承认 |
| 6 | This is the annual Citadel Securities Conference, | 这是一年一度的Citadel证券会议, |
| 7 | and just how much has changed from last year. | 以及去年的改变程度 |
| 8 | The world is grappling with this technological advancement | 全世界都在努力争取技术进步 |
| 9 | where it used to be experimentation. | 曾经是实验的地方 |
| 10 | Now it's solving 80-year-old math problems once unsolvable. | 现在它正在解决80年的数学问题 曾经是无法解决的。 |
| 11 | Ken, I listened to a recent interview you gave | 肯,我听了你最近接受的采访 |
| 12 | where you talked about going home depressed one Friday | 周五你说要回家 心情不好 |
| 13 | because AI could solve PhD-level work in just a few hours. | 因为AI可以在几个小时内解决博士级的工作. |
| 14 | I know you get asked this a lot, | 我知道你被问了很多, |
| 15 | just how much your view has changed, | 你的看法有多么的改变 |
| 16 | but things are changing very quickly. | 但情况变化很快 |
| 17 | Let's start with the future of work. | 先明未来业. |
| 18 | When it comes to the future of work, | 关于工作的未来 |
| 19 | just how much has your view changed | 只是你的看法改变了多少 |
| 20 | in what AI can and can't do? | 在AI能够和不能做什么? |
| 21 | So there's no doubt that over, it's remarkable. | 因此,毫无疑问,结束了,这是了不起的。 |
| 22 | It's been a year. | 一年过去了 |
| 23 | And in that year, the advancement in AI models | 当年,AI模型的进步 |
| 24 | has been absolutely tremendous. | 绝对是巨大的。 |
| 25 | And there's no doubt that in a number of fields, | 无疑在很多领域 |
| 26 | AI is literally game-changing. | AI的字面意思是改变游戏。 |
| 27 | I did give a speech or a talk at Stanford | 我在斯坦福做了一个演讲或谈话 |
| 28 | where I discussed the fact that work | 在那里,我讨论的事实 工作 |
| 29 | that used to take our PhDs and masters | 曾经拿我们的博士和硕士 |
| 30 | four to six weeks to complete, | 四到六个星期后, |
| 31 | high-level, white-collar jobs, | 高级,白领工作, |
| 32 | press a button on a keyboard, wait a few hours, | 键盘上按个按钮 等几个小时 |
| 33 | there's the exact same answer. | 同样的答案 |
| 34 | And I will tell you that when I went home | 我会告诉你 当我回家时 |
| 35 | after seeing this, it was a Friday, | 看到这个之后, 这是一个星期五, |
| 36 | it was actually, it was a very depressing moment | 其实,这是一个非常压抑的时刻 |
| 37 | because you're seeing all kinds of things, right? | 因为你看到各种各样的事情,对不对? |
| 38 | You're seeing the threat to white-collar jobs playing out. | 你看到白领工作受到威胁 |
| 39 | As a business owner, you're seeing your competitive moats | 作为一个商人,你正在看到 你的竞争护城河 |
| 40 | be filled in by bulldozers. | 由推土机填充. |
| 41 | And then at the same time, | 然后同时, |
| 42 | you're thinking that this will be a golden era | 你以为这将是一个黄金时代 |
| 43 | for entrepreneurs, that for new business formation, | 对于企业家,对于新的企业形成, |
| 44 | for the young entrepreneurs in this country, | 对于这个国家的年轻企业家, |
| 45 | what a golden opportunity this is. | 真是个大好机会 |
| 46 | So you really have all three emotions unleashed | 所以,你真的 释放了所有三种情绪 |
| 47 | as you watch this rapid development unfolding. | 看着这个快速的发展 |
| 48 | And I think that all three have real implications | 我认为这三者都有真正的影响 |
| 49 | for our economy. | 我们的经济。 |
| 50 | For those who have careers that are in the sweet spot | 对于那些有职业的 在甜蜜的地方 |
| 51 | of what AI can do, | 对于AI所能做的, |
| 52 | we as a country need to embrace re-skilling. | 我们作为一个国家需要接受再技能。 |
| 53 | For example, if your expertise is in translation | 例如,如果你的专长是翻译 |
| 54 | from English to German, for example, | 例如从英语到德语, |
| 55 | you probably have already lost your job. | 你可能已经失业了 |
| 56 | And that's a difficult job to find a near substitute for. | 这工作很难找到一个接近的替代品。 |
| 57 | So that's where we as a nation need re-skilling. | 所以我们作为一个国家需要重新掌握技能。 |
| 58 | And we need it in a profound way. | 而且我们非常需要它。 |
| 59 | There's talk about it, | 有人说 |
| 60 | but there's no action on that front, right? | 但是那方面没有行动,对吧? |
| 61 | For corporate America, | 对于美国公司, |
| 62 | the filling of your competitive moats | 填满你竞争的护城河 |
| 63 | means you gotta move your feet faster. | 意味着你必须加快脚步。 |
| 64 | You're gonna have to innovate faster. | 你得更快地创新 |
| 65 | You're gonna have to create more customer value faster. | 你得更快地创造更多的客户价值 |
| 66 | You have to figure out how to take costs out faster. | 你得想办法更快地支付费用 |
| 67 | But actually, that's all really good | 但实际上,这是所有 真的好 |
| 68 | for the American consumer and the American public. | 为了美国消费者和美国公众 |
| 69 | That force will force corporate America | 那股力量会迫使美国公司 |
| 70 | to really step its game up, | 要真正加快它的游戏, |
| 71 | and the American consumer will win on the back of that. | 美国消费者会赢的 |
| 72 | And then for this moment | 此时此刻 |
| 73 | where we have this golden age of entrepreneurialism, | 在那里,我们有一个 创业主义的黄金时代, |
| 74 | what a great thing for our country. | 这对我们国家来说是件好事 |
| 75 | Because when you have people who start small businesses, | 因为当你有人创办小企业时 |
| 76 | it does wonders for employment. | 这对就业的确很神奇。 |
| 77 | And in particular, people who have tarnished resumes | 特别是那些玷污过的人 |
| 78 | have a shot to get really good jobs. | 有机会找到好工作 |
| 79 | Startups do something very important in our country. | 创业公司在我国做了非常重要的事。 |
| 80 | Startups will hire somebody who wants to work hard, | 创业者会雇一个想努力工作的人 |
| 81 | who doesn't have the perfect pedigree. | 谁没有完美的血统。 |
| 82 | And for that individual, | 对于这个人来说, |
| 83 | getting a chance to join a startup gives them a chance, | 有机会加入创业者 给他们一个机会 |
| 84 | a whole new lane to build their career in. | 一条全新的道路 让他们的事业得以发展 |
| 85 | And we don't talk about that enough in America. | 我们在美国谈的还不够 |
| 86 | We don't talk about the importance of startups | 我们不谈创业的重要性 |
| 87 | and how they really help to jumpstart careers, | 以及他们如何真正帮助 跳跃的职业生涯, |
| 88 | particularly for people who have impaired pedigrees. | 特别是对于有残疾的人。 |
| 89 | And then these startups will unleash | 然后这些初创企业会释放 |
| 90 | an enormous number of new products | 大量新产品 |
| 91 | that you and I have never even thought of. | 你和我从来没有想过。 |
| 92 | Ken, if I may, it sounds like your depression | 肯,如果可以的话,听起来像是你的抑郁症 |
| 93 | has morphed into optimism. | 已经变成了乐观。 |
| 94 | Is that fair to say? | 这么说公平吗? |
| 95 | I think it is because the history, | 我认为这是因为历史, |
| 96 | the history of our free market | 自由市场的历史 |
| 97 | is that we go through transitions like this. | 我们经历这样的转变 |
| 98 | And to be clear, these transitions, | 清楚一点 这些转变 |
| 99 | they do cause the incumbents to face real challenges. | 它们确实使任职者面临真正的挑战。 |
| 100 | And it is hard on people, | 这对人们来说是很难的, |
| 101 | but ultimately, our lives are better. | 但归根结底 我们的生活会更好 |
| 102 | There's no doubt that you and I would rather live | 毫无疑问,你和我宁愿活着 |
| 103 | right here in 2026 than in 1926. | 就在这里,2026年 比1926年。 |
| 104 | There's just, there's no comparison. | 刚刚,没有比较。 |
| 105 | And this will be part of the story | 这将成为故事的一部分 |
| 106 | of how we write the year 2126, | 我们如何写2126年, |
| 107 | will be what happened at this moment in time with AI. | 此时此刻的AI 将发生什么 |
| 108 | Can we talk about how some of the changes | 我们可以谈谈一些变化吗? |
| 109 | are impacting you as a business leader | 影响你作为一个商业领袖 |
| 110 | who's trying to navigate this? | 是谁在导航? |
| 111 | You once about a year and a half ago | 你大约一年半前 |
| 112 | said that AI can't produce or deliver alpha. | 说AI不能生产或交付α. |
| 113 | Has your changing, has your thinking changed on that at all? | 你改变主意了,你的想法有改变吗? |
| 114 | So at the end of the day, | 所以,在一天结束时, |
| 115 | most of our business is fundamental based investing. | 我们的生意大多是基础投资 |
| 116 | In fact, I would argue that the core of our business | 事实上,我想说 我们业务的核心 |
| 117 | is actually research. | 实际上是研究。 |
| 118 | It's almost like journalism. | 这几乎就像新闻。 |
| 119 | Like, can you get the story right? | 喜欢,你能得到的故事对不对? |
| 120 | Can you get the narrative right? | 你能把叙述弄对吗? |
| 121 | And trading is how we monetize our research, right? | 而交易是我们如何货币化 我们的研究,对不对? |
| 122 | So research is the core of the business. | 所以研究是企业的核心。 |
| 123 | Do we understand the business model? | 我们了解商业模式吗? |
| 124 | Do we understand the TAM? | 我们了解TAM吗? |
| 125 | Do we understand the economics? | 我们懂经济学吗? |
| 126 | Do we understand management incentives? | 我们理解管理激励吗? |
| 127 | And bits and pieces of that, | 一点一点一点, |
| 128 | AI can help shed some light on, | AI可以帮助说明, |
| 129 | but ultimately, that narrative | 但归根结底 那个叙事 |
| 130 | is still assembled by a person. | 仍然由一个人组装。 |
| 131 | And then what multiple to future cash flows | 然后是未来现金流量的多重 |
| 132 | or future earnings do you ascribe to that business? | 或未来的收入 你记在生意上? |
| 133 | How does it compare to other opportunities | 如何与其他机会相比 |
| 134 | that you have to deploy your capital? | 你要部署你的首都? |
| 135 | But ultimately, I still firmly believe | 但最终,我仍然坚信 |
| 136 | that the vast majority of the alpha that we create | 我们创造的绝大多数阿尔法 |
| 137 | is a statement or testament to the creativity, | 是创造力的证明, |
| 138 | the ingenuity, the analysis of the people on our team | 我们团队里的人的智慧分析 |
| 139 | who conduct fundamental research. | 他们进行基础研究。 |
| 140 | And then trading is how we monetize that. | 然后交易就是我们如何货币化的。 |
| 141 | In fact, the trading part of the work | 事实上,工作的交易部分 |
| 142 | has actually become the most automated part, | 已经变成了最自动化的部分, |
| 143 | the most for leaning technologically | 最适合在技术上倾斜 |
| 144 | because if you can monetize your research well, | 因为如果你能把你的研究货币化 |
| 145 | you can run bigger positions | 你可以运行更大的位置 |
| 146 | and extract more alpha from your ideas. | 并且从你的想法中提取更多的α。 |
| 147 | That's a really important part | 这很重要 |
| 148 | of any portfolio manager's job | 投资组合经理工作 |
| 149 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}那就是我如何有效地交易 | |
| 150 | to maximize my return on my research. | 使我的研究回报最大化 |
| 151 | 还有Citadel的交易数字 | |
| 152 | have been hitting record after record | 已录入记录 |
| 153 | 用于Citadel证券. | |
| 154 | Part of it has been this volatility we've seen in markets. | 部分是因为我们在市场上看到的波动。 |
| 155 | And Ken, I would love to get your view on this | 肯,我很想听听你的观点 |
| 156 | because over the past week, we've seen semis log | 因为在过去的一周里,我们已经看到半记录 |
| 157 | their biggest, longest losing streak | 他们最大的,最长的失败记录 |
| 158 | since the great financial crisis. | 自从金融危机以来 |
| 159 | You have IPOs delayed or pushbacks, | 你有IPO 延迟或推回, |
| 160 | concerns about what AI means. | 关注AI的含义. |
| 161 | Is this market experiencing a reset | 这个市场是重置的吗? |
| 162 | and was a reset necessary if so? | 是否有必要重设? |
| 163 | Look, I think this market is actually experiencing | 你看,我觉得这个市场 实际上正在经历 |
| 164 | people doing research, right? | 人们在研究,对不对? |
| 165 | For the last couple of years, | 在过去几年里, |
| 166 | if you were on the thematic program | 如果你在主题程序中 |
| 167 | of we're gonna spend hundreds of billions | 我们将会花费上千亿 |
| 168 | or a trillion dollars in data centers, | 或数万亿美元的数据中心, |
| 169 | we're gonna build compute at a scale never seen before, | 我们要用前所未有的比例计算 |
| 170 | which companies in that story | 故事中哪些公司 |
| 171 | are choke points in supply chains | 是供应链中的窒息点 |
| 172 | that will have abnormally high margins? | 会有异常高的边际? |
| 173 | And who will be the big winners in this transformation? | 在这场变革中谁是大赢家? |
| 174 | Will it be the Microsofts, the AWSs, | 会是微软,AWS, |
| 175 | who will be the gatekeepers to the foundational models? | 谁会是守门员 到基础模型? |
| 176 | Who's going to earn the economic rents? | 谁能赚到经济租金? |
| 177 | But in some sense, I'm just gonna buy them all. | 但从某种意义上说,我只是要去买 所有的。 |
| 178 | I'm gonna buy the hyperscalers, | 我要买超规模的 |
| 179 | I'm gonna buy the chip companies, | 我要买芯片公司, |
| 180 | I'm gonna buy businesses that make things | 我要买生意 制造东西 |
| 181 | I've never even heard of five years ago | 我从来没有听说过五年前 |
| 182 | in Korea and Taiwan and in Japan. | 分布于韩国,台湾以及日本等地. |
| 183 | And now we're reaching a point | 瞷и竒 |
| 184 | where people are becoming more discerning, right? | 人们越来越有分辨力,对吧? |
| 185 | We do realize that we are seeing extremely high margins | 我们确实意识到,我们看到了极高的幅度 |
| 186 | 各地区的DRAM和MCC | |
| 187 | where there are real supply constraints, | 如果确实存在供应限制, |
| 188 | but people are now starting to look out two years, | 但人们开始注意两年了 |
| 189 | three years, how long is this going to last? | 三年,这要持续多久? |
| 190 | And in particular, and I don't wanna be doom and gloom, | 特别是我不想成为末日与忧郁 |
| 191 | GPUs like airlines have a very low marginal cost to run. | 像航空公司这样的GPU可以运行的边际成本非常低. |
| 192 | Like the incremental seat on an airline that's not full, | 就像航空公司的增量座椅 还没满 |
| 193 | if you can sell that ticket for $20, | 如果你能卖出20元的票 |
| 194 | you're making money in that seat. | 你在那个座位上赚钱 |
| 195 | And that's one of the reasons | 这也是原因之一 |
| 196 | that the airline industry is such a nightmare | 航空业是如此的噩梦 |
| 197 | is because the moment you have overcapacity, | 因为你能力过剩的时候 |
| 198 | pricing goes into freefall. | 定价进入自由落地。 |
| 199 | We saw this actually with the telecom build out back in 2000. | 我们从2000年的电信建设中看到了这一点。 |
| 200 | We built all this dark fiber, | 我们造了这么黑的纤维 |
| 201 | and the minute we built more fiber than we had need for, | 和一分钟,我们造了更多的纤维 超过我们的需求, |
| 202 | sorry, it wasn't meant to be dark, | 对不起,它不应该是黑暗的, |
| 203 | it was never turned on, it was never lit up | 它从来没有打开, 它从来没有被点燃 |
| 204 | because we didn't need it. | 因为我们不需要它。 |
| 205 | We built more fiber than we had demand for, | 我们造的纤维比我们要求的要多 |
| 206 | and the price of telecommunications | 和电信价格 |
| 207 | just went straight down. | 只是直接下来。 |
| 208 | Is that what we're heading for right now? | 这就是我们现在要去的地方吗? |
| 209 | Well, that's the question mark, | 这就是问号 |
| 210 | which is if we reach a point | 如果我们达到点 |
| 211 | where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, | 如果提供GPU超过对GPU的需求, |
| 212 | marginal pricing will actually go into freefall. | 边际定价实际上会自由落地。 |
| 213 | And that really upends all the investment assumptions | 这真的结束了所有的投资假设 |
| 214 | that people are working with today. | 今天人们正在合作 |
| 215 | That's issue number one. | 这是第一期 |
| 216 | And issue number two is I think people are taking a step back | 第二题是,我想人们会退一步 |
| 217 | and saying, what is the useful life of a GPU? | 并说,什么是GPU的使用寿命? |
| 218 | Like right here right now, | 就像现在这样 |
| 219 | there's people that are earning extraordinary pricing | 有的人挣得超乎寻常的价格 |
| 220 | on GPUs that are five or six years old. | 在5到6岁的GPU上 |
| 221 | That probably doesn't persist | 这也许不会持久 |
| 222 | for another five or six years. | 再过五六年 |
| 223 | And so there's a growing set of concerns | 所以人们越来越担心 |
| 224 | that I can't give the same capitalization rate | 我不能给同样的资本率 |
| 225 | or the same revenue models to year seven, eight, nine | 或到第七、第八、第九年的相同收入模式 |
| 226 | of a chip in the future | 未来的芯片 |
| 227 | that maybe I was using 12 months ago. | 也许12个月前我在用 |
| 228 | So I think we're really grappling with just how far | 所以,我认为我们真的 努力只是多远 |
| 229 | will this demand carry us in the marketplace. | 这个需求会把我们带到市场 |
| 230 | And the second issue is the first conversation | 第二期是第一次谈话 |
| 231 | was like all the upside of AI. | 和AI一样 |
| 232 | And there's another narrative that's important. | 还有另一个很重要的叙述 |
| 233 | Corporate America has been very uneven | 美国公司一直很不平衡 |
| 234 | in its ability to extract value from AI models. | 能够从AI模型中提取价值。 |
| 235 | And the most sophisticated companies in the United States | 美国最先进的公司 |
| 236 | are becoming very sophisticated | 变得非常复杂 |
| 237 | at what parts of their business do they need to pay | 他们需要支付哪些业务费用 |
| 238 | extremely high pricing for the state of the art models | 高价的艺术模型 |
| 239 | from open AI and anthropic. | 从开放AI和人类。 |
| 240 | And what part of their business can they run | 他们的生意是怎样的 |
| 241 | on open source models at a fraction of the cost? | 在开源模型上以成本的一小部分? |
| 242 | Like if you look at some of the companies | 就像你看看一些公司一样 |
| 243 | that have really just done incredible things | 刚刚做了不可思议的事 |
| 244 | with AI internal their four walls, | 与AI内部的四面墙, |
| 245 | they are quickly becoming very thoughtful, | 他们很快就变得很体贴 |
| 246 | maximize the return on their spend. | 尽量提高他们的收入。 |
| 247 | And I think all of corporate America is looking | 我想所有美国公司都在寻找 |
| 248 | at their bills from anthropic and open AI and going, | 在他们的账单 从人类和开放AI,然后去, |
| 249 | okay, we need to think about how to make sure | 好吧,我们需要考虑 如何确保 |
| 250 | we're getting productivity out of this. | 我们正在提高生产率 从这一点。 |
| 251 | And they will in many areas, | 他们将在许多方面, |
| 252 | but in some areas you've got a lot of waste | 但有些地方你浪费很多钱 |
| 253 | and people are gonna have to pivot around that. | 而人们将不得不 围绕这一点。 |
| 254 | Does that mean there's necessary tension in this idea | 这是否意味着 有必要的紧张 这个想法 |
| 255 | that the LLMs are spending huge sums of money? | LLMs花了很多钱? |
| 256 | 日记上说Anthropic和他们的S1 | |
| 257 | is talking about $750 billion of spending to come, | 说要花7500亿美元 |
| 258 | that their spending is increasing at the same time | 他们的支出同时在增加 |
| 259 | corporate America is trying to pull back | 公司美国试图退出 |
| 260 | and figuring out ways to cut down their costs. | 并想方设法削减成本 |
| 261 | Is there necessary tension in those two things, Ken? | 这两件事是否必要紧张,肯? |
| 262 | Τ | |
| 263 | I mean, clearly you just answered the question | 我的意思是,很明显你刚刚回答了问题 |
| 264 | as you posed it, right? | 就像你摆的,对吧? |
| 265 | Like seven. | 如是七门. |
| 266 | Leading the witness, sorry. | 领导证人,对不起。 |
| 267 | Yes, you led the witness. | 是的,你带领证人。 |
| 268 | Let me just say, yes, yes, there is. | 让我说,是的,是的,有。 |
| 269 | And the question will be come down to | 问题将会降临到 |
| 270 | how much will open, sorry, will anthropic, | 多少会打开,对不起, 人类, |
| 271 | how much will anthropic make their models a must have? | 人类会给他们的模型带来多少? |
| 272 | So for example, in life sciences, | 例如在生命科学方面 |
| 273 | will anthropic truly reach the point | 人类将真正达到目的 |
| 274 | where they will help to unlock the cures for cancer | 他们能帮助解开癌症的解药 |
| 275 | or other life-threatening diseases? | 或其他威胁生命的疾病? |
| 276 | Will they make themselves completely like a necessity | 他们会把自己完全变成一个必要 |
| 277 | in every farm or company in the world? | 在世界上每一个农场或公司? |
| 278 | And you'll pay any price for their know-how and their tools | 你会为他们的诀窍和工具付出任何代价 |
| 279 | because it will unlock the healthcare treatments | 因为它会解锁 治疗 |
| 280 | for the next century. | 在下一个世纪。 |
| 281 | So what we don't know is how, | 所以,我们不知道是如何, |
| 282 | as these models become more intelligent, | 随着这些模型变得更聪明, |
| 283 | how much are they able to demand extremely high pricing | 他们能要求高价多少? |
| 284 | because they help to actually solve the problems | 因为他们帮助解决问题 |
| 285 | that have vexed humanity for centuries? | 几个世纪以来一直困扰着人类? |
| 286 | Because people don't know the answer to that, | 因为人们不知道答案 |
| 287 | often the conversation goes to this bubble one, | 经常对话到这个泡沫之一, |
| 288 | that maybe this is a bubble. | 也许这是一个泡沫。 |
| 289 | Ray Dalio thinks it is. | 雷大略以为是. |
| 290 | Howard Marks says he's on Bubble Watch. | 霍华德·马克斯说他在泡泡观察. |
| 291 | The BIS says that it has echoes of the dot-com boom. | BIS表示,它有"点-com"热潮的回响. |
| 292 | And I wonder whether it is knowable if this is a bubble. | 我怀疑如果这是泡泡,是否是已知的。 |
| 293 | And if you have any particular thoughts about that, | 如果你有任何特别的想法, |
| 294 | if it is a bubble and if it's one that looks like | 如果它是一个气泡 如果它看起来像一个 |
| 295 | it's gonna burst, at least in certain parts | 它会爆炸,至少在某些地方 |
| 296 | of the different AI layers. | 不同AI层。 |
| 297 | Well, so the big picture is there's almost certainly bubbles | 所以大局是 几乎肯定有泡沫 |
| 298 | within this moment in time. | 此时此刻 |
| 299 | And any radical transformation of our economy | 以及任何彻底的经济转型 |
| 300 | is generally intertwined with a bubble, all right? | 通常和泡泡交织在一起,好吗? |
| 301 | I remember back in 1999, 2000, | 我记得1999年 2000年 |
| 302 | the metrics that we used to value internet companies, | 我们用来评价互联网公司的标准, |
| 303 | and let's be clear, some of these internet companies | 说清楚 互联网上的一些公司 |
| 304 | had pretty fanciful business models, | 有相当幻想的商业模式, |
| 305 | but I mean, I just wish I'd kept my Amazon stock | 但我的意思是,我只是希望 我保持我的亚马逊股票 |
| 306 | from that moment in time. | 从那一刻开始 |
| 307 | And the internet, which was the great bubble, | 和互联网,这是伟大的泡沫, |
| 308 | could it be more of a part of our daily life today | 会不会是我们今天日常生活的一部分? |
| 309 | than it is? | 比这还重要? |
| 310 | I mean, I've told this story before, | 我之前讲过这个故事 |
| 311 | but I was updating my Xbox with my son a few years ago, | 但我几年前和我儿子一起更新了我的Xbox |
| 312 | he was 13 at the time, and he looks at me, | 当时他才13岁 他看着我 |
| 313 | and he goes, dad, you lived before the internet existed. | 他走了,爸爸, 你活在互联网存在之前。 |
| 314 | And I said, I was born after the dinosaurs disappeared. | 我说,我是在恐龙消失后出生的。 |
| 315 | But yes, there was life before the internet. | 但是,是的,有生活 在互联网之前。 |
| 316 | And now, that's like an incomprehensible thought | 现在,这就像一个无法理解的想法 |
| 317 | to a 20-year-old. | 对一个20岁的孩子。 |
| 318 | So these bubbles, if we're gonna use that word, | 所以这些泡沫,如果我们要使用这个词, |
| 319 | often coincide with these giant technological | 经常与这些巨大的技术同时出现 |
| 320 | transformations, the railroads, for example. | 转型,例如铁路。 |
| 321 | But what's left in the wake of these bubbles, | 但是这些泡沫之后留下的 |
| 322 | if we want to use that word, | 如果我们想用这个词, |
| 323 | is often game-changing for the world. | 经常是改变世界的游戏。 |
| 324 | And the companies that are on the other side of that bubble | 还有那些在泡沫的另一边的公司 |
| 325 | are the market leaders for decades to come. | 成为未来几十年的市场领袖。 |
| 326 | Can I just say, I also find it quite lovely | 我可以说,我也觉得它相当可爱 |
| 327 | that you're still the IT help at home, | 你还是家里的IT帮手 |
| 328 | even with everything you do, | 即使你所做的一切, |
| 329 | you're still helping with the Xbox. | 你还在帮助Xbox。 |
| 330 | Yeah, I still update the Xbox. | 是的,我仍然更新Xbox。 |
| 331 | A lot of people also look at what the markets are doing | 很多人也看看市场在做什么 |
| 332 | and the sell-offs that are happening and saying, | 和正在发生的销售,并说: |
| 333 | this is just hedge fund deleveraging. | 这只是对冲基金去杠杆化。 |
| 334 | You might know a thing or two about that, Ken. | 你可能知道一点,肯 |
| 335 | And I wonder how you look at this past week, | 我想知道你这礼拜的表情 |
| 336 | how you sort of distinguish market reset, | 你如何区分市场重置, |
| 337 | fundamental difference, versus maybe someone | 根本的区别,也许有人 |
| 338 | just had to liquidate. | 刚刚不得不清算。 |
| 339 | Maybe there was a margin call somewhere. | 可能某个地方有个差价电话 |
| 340 | So everyone's favorite go-to answer | 所以大家都喜欢去回答 |
| 341 | when they're losing money is hedge funds are deleveraged. | 当他们输钱时,对冲基金被去杠杆化。 |
| 342 | In fact, in the last 10 years, | 事实上,在过去的十年里, |
| 343 | I've seen the entire industry deleveraged to zero | 我见过整个行业 减到零 |
| 344 | at least 10,000 times. | 至少有一万次了。 。 |
| 345 | I mean, it's like every day there's a phone call | 我的意思是,这就像每天 有一个电话 |
| 346 | with somebody that goes, | 和一个人去, |
| 347 | oh, it's gotta be hedge fund deleveraging. | 哦,它必须是对冲基金去杠杆化。 |
| 348 | Just imagine if these hedge funds ever levered back up. | 想象一下,如果这些对冲基金 曾经杠杆备份。 |
| 349 | All right, so, and the reason that people love that answer | 好吧,所以,人们喜欢这个答案的原因 |
| 350 | is it actually washes your hands of accountability. | 它真的洗净了你们的责任。 |
| 351 | Right, like the money you can sort of, | 对,就像钱一样 |
| 352 | oh, hedge fund deleveraging, like, | 哦,对冲基金去杠杆化,喜欢, |
| 353 | 岂不 no. | |
| 354 | Let's take a step back. | 让我们退一步。 |
| 355 | What prices are changing and why? | 价格正在发生变化,原因为何? |
| 356 | What don't we understand? | 我们不明白什么? |
| 357 | What is playing out that we don't get? | 什么是游戏 我们没有得到? |
| 358 | Because the minute I start to use an excuse, | 因为我一用借口 |
| 359 | I actually stop learning. | 我实际上停止学习。 |
| 360 | Right, so I always want the hedge fund deleveraging | 对,所以我总想让对冲基金去杠杆化 |
| 361 | to be answer number 10 on the list of answers. | 成为答案列表的第10个答案. |
| 362 | And I want one through nine to be, | 我希望一到九是, |
| 363 | okay, what don't we understand? | 好吧,我们不明白什么? |
| 364 | What does somebody else get? | 别人得到什么? |
| 365 | What do the guys over at Capital figure out? | 都城那帮家伙知道些什么? |
| 366 | Or Fidelity, or Wellington? | 菲德尔特还是威灵顿? |
| 367 | What dots have they connected that we don't see? | 我们没有看到它们有什么关联? |
| 368 | Somebody else here knows the story and we don't know it. | 这里的其他人知道这个故事 而我们不知道 |
| 369 | And let's go figure it out. | 让我们去想清楚。 |
| 370 | And if we can't, if we exhaust every path we possibly can, | 如果我们不能,如果我们用尽一切可能的道路 |
| 371 | okay, let's not talk about who might be delevering. | 好吧,让我们不要谈论 谁可能会去除。 |
| 372 | But that's like option 10 on the list, not option one. | 但这就像名单上的选项10,而不是选项一。 |
| 373 | How does that then, that lens, | 那镜头是怎样的? |
| 374 | apply to what we did see in the summer | 适用于我们在夏天所看到的 |
| 375 | with situational awareness, | 了解情况, |
| 376 | which I think by any stretch of the imagination | 我想从想象中 |
| 377 | was a brilliant move. | 真是个绝妙的举动 |
| 378 | All the reporting suggests that it was the right timing, | 所有的报告都表明,这是正确的时机, |
| 379 | that you sold into a market that was rallying. | 你卖到一个集市。 |
| 380 | Can you just walk us through your thinking | 你能让我们通过你的思考吗? |
| 381 | of how you think about taking those risks | 如何思考 承担这些风险 |
| 382 | when there are clear deleveraging moment | 当有明显的去杠杆化瞬间 |
| 383 | and the ability to jump in and be confident | 和能够跳跃和自信 |
| 384 | that that can pay off? | 那能赚大钱? |
| 385 | So we have been involved in a number | 所以,我们参与了一个数字 |
| 386 | of large portfolio instructions over the last, | 上一个大组合指令, |
| 387 | or restructuring over the last 20 years. | 或在过去20年里进行重组。 |
| 388 | Whether it was Amherst restructuring | 是否是阿默斯特重组 |
| 389 | their energy portfolio back in roughly 2006 | 大约在2006年 |
| 390 | or so would in 2007. | 大约2007年。 |
| 391 | Several other trades that have had less attention | 其他几个行业的注意较少 |
| 392 | or notoriety. | 或名声。 |
| 393 | But situational awareness was in a position | 但情况意识已经到了 |
| 394 | where they, as managers of assets, as fiduciaries, | 在那里,他们作为资产管理人,作为信托人, |
| 395 | they needed to thoughtfully raise cash. | 他们需要精心筹钱 |
| 396 | And we gave them a holistic solution | 我们给了他们一个整体的解决方案 |
| 397 | to meet their needs, to raise cash, | 满足他们的需要,筹集现金, |
| 398 | and to protect a substantial year-to-date gain. | 并保护一年到今天的巨大收益。 |
| 399 | Like this was an important win for their investors. | 对于他们的投资者来说,这是一个重要的胜利。 |
| 400 | And let's be clear, you know, | 让我们说清楚,你知道, |
| 401 | they're up significantly for the year. | 一年来,它们都涨得很大 |
| 402 | So they've done a, when it's all said and done, | 所以,他们做了一个, 当这一切说和做了, |
| 403 | they've been through a bit of a journey, | 他们经历了一段旅程, |
| 404 | but their investors have to be pleased | 但是他们的投资者必须高兴 |
| 405 | that even with the turmoil they face, | 即使他们面临动荡, |
| 406 | they're up for the year. | 他们已经上线了 |
| 407 | When we're looking at a situation like that, | 当我们看到这样的情况, |
| 408 | we're trying to understand what forces have been in play | 我们试图理解什么力量在起作用 |
| 409 | to create the events that have unfolded. | 创建已展开的事件。 |
| 410 | And as situational awareness found itself | 随着形势意识的发现 |
| 411 | in a more difficult situation, | 在更困难的情况下, |
| 412 | there's no doubt that a number of the more fast money | 毫无疑问,一些更快的钱 |
| 413 | accounts in the market would start to front run | 市场上的账户将开始前期运行 |
| 414 | what they would have anticipated situational awareness | 他们本可以预料到什么 |
| 415 | or its contemporaries would be doing. | 或者它同时期会做。 |
| 416 | Right, this is like a classic playbook in finance. | 这就像经典的金融剧本 |
| 417 | You think somebody's in trouble | 你以为有人有麻烦了? |
| 418 | and you start to try to anticipate the moves | 并开始尝试预测动作 |
| 419 | they're gonna need to make. | 他们需要制造。 |
| 420 | And whether it's a defense or offensive decision, | 无论是防御还是攻击决定 |
| 421 | you start to actually, you actually start to turn | 你开始实际上, 你实际上开始转 |
| 422 | a possibility into a crystallized reality. | 成为现实的可能性 |
| 423 | Right, so even if all you knew was, | 没错,所以即使你知道的只是... |
| 424 | geez, you know, people that are along this AI theme | 哦,你知道,人们 沿着这个AI主题 |
| 425 | are in trouble and they're gonna be de-risking. | 遇到麻烦了 他们就会去冒险 |
| 426 | So I'm not gonna buy those stocks | 所以我不会买那些股票 |
| 427 | or I'm gonna trim my exposures. | 否则我会剪掉我的暴露 |
| 428 | You start to transform a possibility into a reality. | 你开始把可能性变成现实 |
| 429 | And situational found themselves in a position | 和形势 发现自己处于一个位置 |
| 430 | where, again, out of abundance of caution, | 在那里,又因为谨慎, |
| 431 | they needed to raise cash. | 他们需要筹集现金。 |
| 432 | Now, what we have found in moments like that | 现在,我们发现 在这样的时刻 |
| 433 | is that when you acquire a portfolio | 是当你获得一个组合 |
| 434 | in that market environment, | 在这种市场环境中, |
| 435 | you generally get a pretty sharp reversal in price | 你的价格一般会急剧逆转 |
| 436 | as confidence is reestablished | 随着信心的恢复 |
| 437 | and the anxiety about a portfolio | 和对组合的焦虑 |
| 438 | suffering an unexpected quick divestiture ends. | 遭受了意外的快速撤资结束。 |
| 439 | And in some sense, we deployed our capital | 从某种意义上说,我们部署我们的首都 |
| 440 | on the back of that theory. | 在理论的背后。 |
| 441 | And we did okay, we did okay. | 我们做得很好,我们做得很好。 |
| 442 | But it was a complicated portfolio to buy overnight. | 但它是一个复杂的组合 买一夜。 |
| 443 | We did the trade in less than 24 hours. | 我们用不到24小时就完成了交易 |
| 444 | And managing the risk profile of that portfolio | 管理投资组合的风险简介 |
| 445 | did take us several days of trading the marketplace. | 我们花了好几天的市场交易 |
| 446 | And that's one of the things that we do well | 这也是我们做的好事之一 |
| 447 | is we're very accustomed to analyzing portfolios. | 我们很习惯分析投资组合 |
| 448 | And how do you cost efficiently | 你如何高效地花费 |
| 449 | bring down your key risks in the portfolio? | 降低投资组合中的关键风险? |
| 450 | And once you can nail down the key risks | 一旦你能够克服关键的风险 |
| 451 | the portfolio cost effectively, | 投资组合具有成本效益, |
| 452 | then you can start to pair out of individual positions. | 然后,你可以开始配对 个人位置。 |
| 453 | And we've got the systems, the know-how, | 我们有系统 诀窍 |
| 454 | and the people internally | 和人民内部 |
| 455 | that can make those moves happen on a chessboard. | 它可以使这些动作发生在棋盘上。 |
| 456 | Just given some of the bubbly attributes, | 刚刚给了一些泡泡的属性, |
| 457 | if we wanna use that word, of this market, | 如果我们想用这个词 这个市场, |
| 458 | do you anticipate more events like that happening? | 你预见到更多这样的事件吗? |
| 459 | Should we kind of assume, again, | 如果我们再假设一次, |
| 460 | not being the cause of maybe market selling off, | 并不是市场出售的原因, |
| 461 | but it wouldn't be unusual | 但这并不不寻常 |
| 462 | to continue to see moments like that? | 继续看到这样的时刻? |
| 463 | It would be a bit surprising | 这有点让人吃惊 |
| 464 | to see another moment like this | {\fn华文仿宋\fs16\1cHD1D1D1}看到另一个像这样的时刻 |
| 465 | actually happen, in my opinion. | 在我看来,确实发生了 |
| 466 | They were caught in a pretty significant price downdraft | 他们被压低了相当大的价格 |
| 467 | caused by both the announcement of Kimi, | 因为基米的宣布, |
| 468 | other chatter in the marketplace about the growth rate | 市场上其他关于增长率的谈话 |
| 469 | of some of the foundational model companies, | 一些基础模型公司, |
| 470 | some large pension plans | 一些大型养恤金计划 |
| 471 | that were reshaping their portfolios | 他们正在重塑他们的投资组合 |
| 472 | at that very moment in time. | 就在那个时刻 |
| 473 | They got caught, I wouldn't say in the perfect storm, | 他们被抓了,我不会说 在完美的风暴, |
| 474 | but they got caught in three mid-sized storms. | 但是他们遭遇了三次中等规模的风暴 |
| 475 | And clearly they must have had too much leverage | 显然他们一定有太多的影响力 |
| 476 | in the portfolio at peak, caught in three mid-sized storms, | 陷入三场中等规模的风暴 |
| 477 | pushed pretty hard in the marketplace | 在市场里推得很用力 |
| 478 | and found themselves in a bit of turmoil. | 并发现自己在 有点混乱。 |
| 479 | I would not manage my business for that to happen | 我不会为这事管事 |
| 480 | anytime in the foreseeable future again. | 在可预见的未来随时会再次出现 |
| 481 | I mean, there will always be some of our firms | 我的意思是,总会有 我们的一些公司 |
| 482 | that find themselves in a tough spot. | 发现自己在一个艰难的地方。 |
| 483 | I mean, Citadel was in a tough spot in 2008. | 我的意思是,Citadel在2008年是一个艰难的地方。 |
| 484 | The height of the financial crisis, | 金融危机的高潮, |
| 485 | if Morgan Stanley had not achieved their funding | 如果摩根斯坦利没有获得资金 |
| 486 | with the Japanese and had failed, | 和日本人一起失败了 |
| 487 | I don't think I'd be on stage today. | 我想我今天不会上台 |
| 488 | Like every firm in financial services, | 和所有金融服务公司一样 |
| 489 | if you survive long enough, | 如果你活得够久 |
| 490 | part of your history will be a moment in time of despair. | 你历史的一部分将是绝望的时刻。 |
| 491 | Like if you survive long enough, | 就像如果你活得够久 |
| 492 | every lever financial institution | 每个杠杆金融机构 |
| 493 | will have a footnote in their history | 将在其历史上有一个脚注 |
| 494 | of when their back was against the wall. | 当他们的背在墙上的时候, |
| 495 | Can if we could change gears, | 如果我们可以换齿轮, |
| 496 | because one of the big disruptions | 因为其中的一次大干扰 |
| 497 | or market risks that we're living with is AI. | 或者我们所承受的市场风险是AI |
| 498 | The other one happens in two weeks time | 另一个两周后发生 |
| 499 | and that's the midterm. | 这是中期。 |
| 500 | And it comes amid a moment | 一会儿就来了 |
| 501 | of rising democratic socialist candidates | 正在崛起的民主社会主义候选人 |
| 502 | of the president's own polling at a historic low of 33%. | 总统的投票率创历史最低点33% |
| 503 | You've committed a lot of capital | 你投入了很多资本 |
| 504 | in order to help Republican candidates. | 为了帮助共和党候选人. |
| 505 | And I just wonder where your sentiment is at the moment. | 我只是想知道你现在的心情如何 |
| 506 | Are you still spending? | 你还在花钱吗? |
| 507 | I really liked the last conversation better. | 我真的更喜欢上次的谈话 |
| 508 | I'm sure there's an AI angle in, | 我敢肯定,有一个AI的角度, |
| 509 | there actually is quite an AI angle | 其实有相当的AI角度 |
| 510 | in this political conversation. | 在这个政治对话中。 |
| 511 | But we can start with this first. | 但我们可以先从这个开始。 |
| 512 | Are you still spending? | 你还在花钱吗? |
| 513 | Are you optimistic that you can make a final push to help? | 你乐观地认为你可以 做出最后的帮助? |
| 514 | Well, I mean, first of all, | 嗯,我的意思是, 首先, |
| 515 | I think it's important to take a step back. | 我觉得退一步很重要 |
| 516 | The U.S. political process in the midterms | 美国中期政治进程 |
| 517 | is a check and balance on the party in power, all right? | 这是对执政党的检查和平衡,好吗? |
| 518 | So the Republicans, President Trump, | 共和党人 川普总统 |
| 519 | they will almost certainly lose one or both houses | 他们几乎肯定会失去一栋房子或两栋房子 |
| 520 | or both legislative branches. | 或两个立法部门。 |
| 521 | The House and the Senate, they're both, | 众议院和参议院都是 |
| 522 | the House is almost, isn't a really tough spot. | 众议院几乎,不是一个真正的艰难的地方。 |
| 523 | And the Senate's gonna be really close, all right? | 参议院会很接近的,好吗? |
| 524 | Let's just be right to the point. | 直说吧 |
| 525 | And that's just part of the normal political cycle, all right? | 这只是正常政治周期的一部分,好吗? |
| 526 | There are a number of candidates in the House and Senate | 众议院和参议院有许多候选人 |
| 527 | who I have supported in this cycle, | 我在这周期里支持他 |
| 528 | many of whom I've supported for many cycles. | 很多我支持过很多循环 |
| 529 | People I think represent values | 我认为人们代表着价值 |
| 530 | that are important to the future of our country. | 对我国的未来很重要。 |
| 531 | And there are obviously candidates | 很明显还有候选人 |
| 532 | that we might be less enthusiastic about | 我们可能不太热衷于 |
| 533 | that perhaps I don't support. | 也许我不支持。 |
| 534 | And to be clear, it's not limited to just Republicans. | 并且说清楚,它并不限于共和党人. |
| 535 | 我是Rahm Emanuel最大的支持者之一 | |
| 536 | in Chicago when he ran for mayor. | 他在芝加哥竞选市长时 |
| 537 | I thought Rahm did a fantastic job as mayor. | 我以为Rahm做市长的工作很棒 |
| 538 | I have the notoriety of being one of the only bundlers | 我有名气 成为唯一的捆绑者之一 |
| 539 | of the United States for both parties in election cycle. | 在选举周期内代表美国两党。 |
| 540 | We did an early fundraiser for President Obama | 我们提前为奥巴马总统筹款 |
| 541 | during the primary. | 在小学期间。 |
| 542 | He was my senator in Illinois, | 他是我在伊利诺伊州的参议员 |
| 543 | and I thought it was important for my team members | 我觉得这对我的团队成员很重要 |
| 544 | to have a chance to meet with this person | 有机会和这个人见面 |
| 545 | who I thought could be the future president | 我以为他可以当未来的总统 |
| 546 | of the United States. | 美国常驻联合国代表 |
| 547 | And he came in and absolutely knocked the ball in the park. | 然后他进来 完全敲了公园的球 |
| 548 | So I think number one is I want all my colleagues | 所以我认为第一,我要我所有的同事 |
| 549 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}在学校参与政治 | |
| 550 | Like I want all my colleagues | 就像我要我所有的同事一样 |
| 551 | to think about politics in America. | 想想美国的政治 |
| 552 | And in my firm, roughly a slight majority | 在我的律所里 几乎是多数 |
| 553 | are probably Democrats. | 可能是民主党人 |
| 554 | And well, that would leave the Republicans the minority. | 这样共和党就会成为少数派 |
| 555 | And that's okay. | 这没关系。 |
| 556 | I love the fact that there are good, healthy debates | 我喜欢有好,健康的辩论 |
| 557 | that take place in our hallways, | 发生在我们走廊, |
| 558 | but it's never a point of friction. | 但绝不是摩擦 |
| 559 | Like this is what I think we should look like as a people, | 我觉得我们应该像一个民族一样 |
| 560 | that we have good, healthy debates | 我们有良好的,健康的争论 |
| 561 | around who are the right people to run our country. | 他们才是管理我们国家的人 |
| 562 | And to be clear, everyone of my colleagues | 说清楚,我的同事 |
| 563 | who supports Democrats, like I really hope | 支持民主党的人,就像我真心希望的那样 |
| 564 | that they, in supporting Democrats, | 他们支持民主党 |
| 565 | do what I do on the Republican side, | 做我在共和党方面做的事, |
| 566 | which is try to support the candidates | 试图支持候选人 |
| 567 | that have the right values, the right perspectives, | 有正确的价值,正确的视角, |
| 568 | who put our country first and who care about issues | 谁把国家放在首位 谁关心的问题 |
| 569 | that I think we all agree on, like K through 12 education, | 我认为我们都同意, 就像K到12教育, |
| 570 | or how do we have safe streets, | 或者我们如何有安全的街道, |
| 571 | or how do we have a strong national defense? | 或者我们如何有强大的国防? |
| 572 | How do we have good alliances around the world? | 我们在世界各地如何建立良好的联盟? |
| 573 | I think there's lots of areas | 我觉得有很多地方 |
| 574 | that we can find common ground on | 我们可以找到共同点 |
| 575 | between our two parties | 我们两党之间 |
| 576 | that are important to the future of our country. | 对我国的未来很重要。 |
| 577 | Okay, so that aside, let's talk about the midterm. | 好吧,那么,除此之外, 让我们谈谈中期。 |
| 578 | President's gonna have some challenges here. | 总统会遇到一些挑战 |
| 579 | There are parts of his policy | 他的政策有一部分 |
| 580 | that have been very unattractive to the American people. | 这对美国人民来说非常没有吸引力。 |
| 581 | For example, the war on Iran is very unpopular. | 例如,对伊朗的战争非常不受欢迎. |
| 582 | I think he's done a very poor job of explaining why. | 我觉得他解释原因的工作很不好 |
| 583 | I think it's important that we wake up in a world | 我觉得我们在一个世界上醒来很重要 |
| 584 | where Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. | 伊朗没有核武器。 |
| 585 | I just think that's of existential importance | 我只是觉得这很重要 |
| 586 | to our country. | 我们的国家。 |
| 587 | I think the president has not made that case | 我想总统没有提出这个案子 |
| 588 | in a powerful, meaningful way to the American people. | 对美国人民来说是有力而有意义的 |
| 589 | I think that the way that we deal | 我觉得我们处理的方式 |
| 590 | with illegal immigrants is disgraceful. | 与非法移民是可耻的。 |
| 591 | I think if you've come to our country | 我想如果你来到我们的国家 |
| 592 | at a point in time when our borders were open, | 在我们边界开放的时候 |
| 593 | you didn't view yourself as breaking the law | 你不认为自己违法 |
| 594 | at that moment in time, | 此时此刻, |
| 595 | and you came in with millions of people. | 你带着数百万人进来 |
| 596 | If you are here with your family or by yourself | 如果你和家人在一起 或是一个人 |
| 597 | and you are gainfully employed | 你们有酬工作, |
| 598 | and you are working to find a better life for your family, | 你正在努力为家人找到更好的生活, |
| 599 | there needs to be a way to stay in our country. | 需要有一种方法 留在我们的国家。 |
| 600 | It may not be a path to citizenship, | 这也许不是取得公民身份的途径, |
| 601 | but it's a path to being a contributing member | 但它是成为贡献成员的途径 |
| 602 | of our society. | 我们的社会。 |
| 603 | And we need to grow our economy. | 我们需要发展经济。 |
| 604 | This is like lost in Washington. | 这就像迷失在华盛顿。 |
| 605 | If we're gonna make good on Social Security, | 如果我们要在社会保障方面做得好 |
| 606 | Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlements, | 医疗保险、医疗补助和其他应享权利, |
| 607 | we need to grow our economy. | 我们需要发展我们的经济。 |
| 608 | It's just that simple. | 很简单 |
| 609 | And hardworking people are a big part | 辛勤工作的人是个大角色 |
| 610 | of how we're gonna make that happen. | 如何实现这一点。 |
| 611 | And then I think that the tariff battles | 然后我觉得关税战 |
| 612 | with Canada, with Europe, with our allies | 与加拿大,与欧洲,与我们的盟友 |
| 613 | has just been a disaster. | 只是一场灾难 |
| 614 | I talked about this when he first started this | 他刚开始的时候我就说了这个 |
| 615 | in his presidency. | 在他担任主席期间。 |
| 616 | To be blunt, I hate to say it, | 直说吧 我不想说 |
| 617 | but I've been right. | 但我是对的 |
| 618 | It's been pro-inflation. | 一直支持通货膨胀. |
| 619 | It has certainly taken supply chains around the world | 全世界都有供应链 |
| 620 | and severed them. | 并断绝他们。 |
| 621 | And we're not gonna re-industrialize | 我们不会重新工业化 |
| 622 | officially in our country. | 在我国正式成立. |
| 623 | Unemployment's low force. | 失业率低。 |
| 624 | Like, if you have this dream | 喜欢,如果你有这个梦想 |
| 625 | of a re-industrialized America, | 重新工业化的美国, |
| 626 | number one is most people don't wanna live that dream. | 第一是大多数人不想活那个梦 |
| 627 | They don't wanna be in factories | 他们不想进工厂 |
| 628 | making Nikes and T-shirts. | 制造耐克和T恤 |
| 629 | They wanna wear those. | 他们想穿这些。 |
| 630 | I was actually a comedian who had that line. | 我其实是一个喜剧演员 谁有这条线。 |
| 631 | I have to give credit to what credits do. | 我得给信用的功劳 |
| 632 | And then we, you know, what we should really be doing | 然后我们,你知道, 我们真正应该做的 |
| 633 | is embracing robotics. | 正在拥抱机器人。 |
| 634 | You know, one of the reasons that I gave a recent gift | 我最近送礼物的原因之一 |
| 635 | of $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon University | 30亿美元给卡内基梅隆大学 |
| 636 | is their leadership in robotics. | 是机器人方面的领导者 |
| 637 | We want a re-industrialized America | 我们要重新工业化的美国 |
| 638 | to be a re-industrialized America | 成为重新工业化的美国 |
| 639 | with robotics running our factories. | 机器人在经营我们的工厂 |
| 640 | Like, that's forward thinking. | 喜欢,这是向前的思考。 |
| 641 | That's how our country secures greater independence | 这就是我们国家实现更大独立的方法 |
| 642 | from the rest of the world on items | 来自世界其他地区的关于项目 |
| 643 | that are important to our national interests. | 这对我们的国家利益很重要。 |
| 644 | And then, of course, I think some of the things | 然后,当然,我想一些事情 |
| 645 | that you did really well, like closing the borders, | 你做得很好, 像关闭边界, |
| 646 | that's long since been forgotten, right? | 很久没被人遗忘了 对吧? |
| 647 | But it's, I gotta tell you, | 但是,我必须告诉你, |
| 648 | I think the vast majority of Americans agree | 我认为绝大多数美国人都同意 |
| 649 | that closing our borders, which we were told | 关闭我们的边界,我们被告知 |
| 650 | for four years, could not happen. | 4年,不可能发生。 |
| 651 | And it happened more or less overnight. | 这几乎是一夜之间发生的。 |
| 652 | It's been a big win. | 师大胜. |
| 653 | So it's a mixed scorecard. | 因此是混合计分卡. |
| 654 | We got a midterm here | 我们这里有期中考 |
| 655 | where the American people are gonna vote. | 美国人民将在那里投票。 |
| 656 | I hope they vote thoughtfully. | 我希望他们能好好投票 |
| 657 | The rise of the democratic socialists, | 民主社会主义者的崛起, |
| 658 | I'm not so worried about. | 我没那么担心 |
| 659 | What's funny is I live in Miami. | 有趣的是我住在迈阿密 |
| 660 | My friends who have connections or ties to the South, | 我和南方有关系的朋友 |
| 661 | don't even, it's not part of the vocabulary. | 甚至不要,它不是词汇的一部分。 |
| 662 | So this is just a New York bubble kind of thing. | 所以,这只是一个纽约泡沫之类的事情。 |
| 663 | It's a New York, it's a Illinois, it's a Michigan, | 纽约,伊利诺伊州,密歇根州 |
| 664 | it's a California bit of a bubble. | 这是一个加州 有点泡沫。 |
| 665 | And I will say, if you wanna look at | 我会说,如果你想看看 |
| 666 | where socialism leads you to, | 在社会主义引导下, |
| 667 | look at France this last weekend. | 看看法国这个周末。 |
| 668 | It's the socialist dream. | 这是社会主义的梦想. |
| 669 | The country spends 60% of its GDP at the government level. | 国家将国内生产总值的60%用于政府一级。 |
| 670 | And yet their streets are awash in turmoil. | 然而,他们的街道却充满了动荡。 |
| 671 | It's heartbreaking. | 真让人心碎 |
| 672 | But Ken, if I may. | 但肯,如果可以的话。 |
| 673 | By the way, Paris looked pretty damn similar | 顺便说一句,巴黎看起来很相似 |
| 674 | to Chicago in 21, 2022. | 2022年,前往芝加哥 |
| 675 | Because this is where I wanted to go. | 因为这就是我想去的地方 |
| 676 | Isn't France an isolated case? | 法国不是孤立的案例吗? |
| 677 | I mean, they try austerity | 我的意思是,他们试图紧缩 |
| 678 | and the government doesn't survive. | 政府无法生存 |
| 679 | It's a people who, not to be flippant about it, | 是一个民族 谁,不 被摆平, |
| 680 | but are very willing to riot and protest at anything. | 但非常愿意暴动和抗议任何事。 |
| 681 | Is that really the future | 那真的是未来吗? |
| 682 | that the US might be looking at? | 美国可能在看吗? |
| 683 | It's the future I lived in Chicago. | 这是我在芝加哥生活的未来 |
| 684 | I could look out my window down at the Dior store. | 我可以在Dior店的窗外看看 |
| 685 | They were very efficient. | 他们非常有效率。 |
| 686 | They would take a van, | 他们会坐一辆面包车, |
| 687 | they'd drive right through the front glass, | 他们开车穿过前玻璃 |
| 688 | create a giant space, 50 people would run in. | 创造一个巨大的空间,50人会跑进来。 |
| 689 | They could empty the store in about 300 seconds. | 他们可以在大约300秒内把商店清空. |
| 690 | All right, like we may be more efficient than the French. | 好吧,我们可能比法国人更有效率 |
| 691 | Even at looting. | 即使是在抢劫。 |
| 692 | But Paris, I think Paris should be a real wake up call | 但是巴黎,我觉得巴黎应该是一个真正的警钟 |
| 693 | to every single young American. | 给每一个年轻的美国人 |
| 694 | France is the dream that the left talks about. | 法国是左派谈论的梦想. |
| 695 | The liberal, safety net rich, socialist Europe. | 自由主义,安全网丰富,社会主义欧洲. |
| 696 | And here's France. | 而此法门. |
| 697 | That dream, that dream is the nightmare I left from Chicago. | 那个梦,那个梦是我从芝加哥留下的噩梦. |
| 698 | That dream doesn't belong in our country. | 那个梦想不属于我们的国家 |
| 699 | You know, an economy, a society where it comes down | 你知道,一个经济, 一个社会,它降 |
| 700 | to how much you can take from others. | 还有你能从别人那里得到多少 |
| 701 | And they'll first take your property | 他们会先抢走你的财产 |
| 702 | and then they'll take your personal rights. | 然后他们会夺走你的人身权利 |
| 703 | That's not a society that we want to create in our country. | 这不是我们想在我国创建的社会. |
| 704 | Do you see candidates that you're actually fearful | 你看到候选人 你实际上害怕 |
| 705 | that that's the path they're going down? | 这就是他们要走的路? |
| 706 | Oh, I very, I mean, | 哦,我非常,我是说, |
| 707 | Jamie Pritzker, Governor of Illinois, yes, 100%. | 杰米·普里茨克 伊利诺伊州州长 是的 百分之百 |
| 708 | So where does the conversation then go, Ken? | 那么谈话会去哪儿,肯? |
| 709 | After this, if it is a drumming, | 在这之后,如果这是一个鼓声, |
| 710 | if these candidates that you say are fearful | 如果你所说的这些候选人是敬畏的, |
| 711 | increase in numbers, what then? | 数量增加,然后呢? |
| 712 | What does the Republican party do? | 共和党是做什么的? |
| 713 | Should the blame lay with the president? | 应该怪罪总统吗? |
| 714 | So, you know, when a party's power is checked | 所以,你知道,当一个政党的权力被检查 |
| 715 | in the midterms, that is, when that happens, | 在中期,即,当发生这种情况时, |
| 716 | let's be clear, the American people have spoken their mind | 说清楚,美国人民说出了他们的想法 |
| 717 | and you better damn well listen. | 你最好好好听着 |
| 718 | And so what I do hope is that if Trump takes a beating | 所以我希望 如果特朗普打一顿 |
| 719 | here in the midterms, he doesn't double down. | 这里的中期, 他不会加倍下降。 |
| 720 | He takes a step back and says, what do I need to do | 他退一步说,我该怎么做? |
| 721 | to better reflect the voice of the American people? | 更好地反映美国人民的声音? |
| 722 | You know, Jamie Pritzker ran a bill in Illinois | 杰米·普里兹克在伊利诺伊州开过单 |
| 723 | to raise taxes, to put in place a progressive tax system. | 提高税收,建立累进税制. |
| 724 | And a bit of background, before he was seated as governor, | 还有一点背景 在他担任州长之前 |
| 725 | I met with him and I said, you know, | 我见过他,我说,你知道, |
| 726 | we both know the pensions in Illinois are out of control. | 我们都知道伊利诺伊州的养老金失控了 |
| 727 | It's a huge problem, the state of Illinois. | 伊利诺伊州是个大问题 |
| 728 | The promises made to government employees | 对政府雇员的承诺 |
| 729 | are simply unsustainable. | 根本是不可持续的。 |
| 730 | I said, if you will put a constitutional amendment up | 我说,如果你能提出宪法修正案 |
| 731 | to reform pensions, I will publicly support you | 改革退休金,我会公开支持你 |
| 732 | in raising taxes. | 在提高税收。 |
| 733 | And I was the largest taxpayer in the state of Illinois | 我是伊利诺伊州最大的纳税人 |
| 734 | and my firm represented almost 2% | 我的律所几乎占2% |
| 735 | of the state's income tax revenue. | 国家所得税收入。 |
| 736 | He told me to pound sand. | 他让我去敲沙子 |
| 737 | He then ran a constitutional amendment | 然后他做了宪法修改 |
| 738 | to create a progressive tax regime, | 建立累进税制, |
| 739 | called it the Fair Tax Amendment, and he lost. | 所谓的公平税修正案, 他输了。 |
| 740 | And rather than take that loss and pivot to, | 而不是把损失 和支点到, |
| 741 | the voters have spoken, I need to get costs under control. | 选民说, 我需要控制费用。 |
| 742 | I need to address the spending addiction | 我需要解决消费上瘾的问题 |
| 743 | we have in our state. | 我们的状态。 |
| 744 | He lashed out at me instead. | 他却骂我 |
| 745 | Like you've missed the narrative, you know, | 就像你错过了叙事 |
| 746 | Governor Pritzker, you missed the fact | 普里茨克州长 你错过了事实 |
| 747 | the voters have said enough of the spending | 选民们已经说得够多了 |
| 748 | and corruption in Springfield, | 和斯普林菲尔德的腐败, |
| 749 | the spending and corruption in Springfield. | 斯普林菲尔德市的支出和腐败 |
| 750 | Go put your house in order, | 把你的房子整齐起来 |
| 751 | then come back and talk about taxes. | 然后回来谈谈税收问题。 |
| 752 | This message in this midterm, | 这个信息在这个中期, |
| 753 | I hope whatever that message is, | 我希望无论这个信息是什么, |
| 754 | whatever it is, the leaders in the House | 不管是什么 众议院的领袖们 |
| 755 | and the Senate and the White House, | 参议院和白宫, |
| 756 | listen carefully to the American people. | 仔细听美国人民的话 |
| 757 | It's Republicans that have increased | 是共和党增加的 |
| 758 | a lot of spending, too, on a federal level. | 在联邦一级也花费了很多 |
| 759 | Actually, it's the Republicans, I think, | 事实上,是共和党人,我想, |
| 760 | have their hands dirty with the tax cuts | 让他们的手被减税弄脏了 |
| 761 | of the last two years and with spending increases, right? | 过去两年 支出增加,对不对? |
| 762 | That's the, like, if you want to be critical | 这就是,喜欢,如果你想 批评 |
| 763 | of the economic policies of this administration, | 该行政当局的经济政策, |
| 764 | and it's an interesting debate. | 这场辩论很有趣 |
| 765 | You know, back when he cut taxes, | 你知道,当他减税时, |
| 766 | what was it, circa 2018, the view was | 2018年的风景 |
| 767 | this would reignite American productivity | 这将重新激发美国生产力 |
| 768 | and entrepreneurism, and I think he was spot on right. | 和企业家主义, 我认为他是正确的。 |
| 769 | Playing that playbook just a year and change ago, | 玩那本游戏 仅仅一年和改变之前, |
| 770 | there was one huge difference between 2018 | 2018年的差别很大 |
| 771 | and a year and a half ago, | 和一年半前, |
| 772 | which was the spending orgy of the pandemic, all right? | 是这场大流行的狂欢,好吗? |
| 773 | So our country went from a fiscal situation | 所以,我们的国家摆脱了财政困境 |
| 774 | that was difficult, and people forget this. | 这是困难的, 人们忘了这一点。 |
| 775 | We spent as much money during the pandemic | 在大流行期间,我们花了很多钱 |
| 776 | as a percent of GDP that we basically spent | 作为占国内生产总值的百分比,我们基本上花 |
| 777 | to win World War II. | 赢得二战。 |
| 778 | That was the cost of us sitting on our couches. | 这是我们坐在沙发上的代价。 |
| 779 | So we didn't have the fiscal space to renew the tax cuts, | 因此,我们没有财政空间 来延长减税, |
| 780 | in my opinion, a year and change ago. | 在我看来,一年和一年前的变化。 |
| 781 | And with the federal deficit of $40 trillion, | 联邦赤字40万亿美元, |
| 782 | the question of crowding out is now becoming | 被排挤的问题正在成为 |
| 783 | front and center again. | 又是正面和中间 |
| 784 | Why are mortgages so expensive? | 为什么抵押贷款这么贵? |
| 785 | Why is the 30-year yield so high? | 为什么30年的产量这么高? |
| 786 | It's multifactorial, inflation has been unchecked, | 这是多因素的, 通货膨胀一直没有控制, |
| 787 | but our fiscal house is clearly not in order, | 但我们的财政之家显然不健全 |
| 788 | and we need to put our fiscal house in order. | 我们需要我们的财政之家的秩序。 |
| 789 | What gets it in order, though? | 但是,是什么得到它的顺序? |
| 790 | Because I know you say in Illinois, | 因为我知道你在伊利诺伊州说过 |
| 791 | maybe voters wanted that, wanted a cutback | 也许选民希望,想要削减 |
| 792 | in the amount of spending, but for the most part, | 以支出额计算,但大多数情况下, |
| 793 | it seems like politicians hesitant | 似乎政客们犹豫不决 |
| 794 | to cut any sort of programs, to raise taxes. | 削减任何种类的方案,提高税收。 |
| 795 | Is it, then as you say, because of this competition | 是因为这场比赛吗? |
| 796 | for capital, is it the bond market, you think? | 对资本来说,这是债券市场吗? |
| 797 | So I think, first and foremost, I think as a country, | 所以我认为,首先,我认为作为一个国家, |
| 798 | we really need to play the productivity card | 我们真的需要打 生产力卡 |
| 799 | as hard as we can, all right? | 尽我们所能,好吗? |
| 800 | Like, in order of what priorities need to be, | 喜欢,按照什么优先事项需要, |
| 801 | number one, grow the damn economy. | 第一,发展该死的经济。 |
| 802 | Like, grow this economy. | 譬如,增长此经济. |
| 803 | And by the way, to grow this economy, | 顺便说一句,为了发展这个经济, |
| 804 | you actually wanna push the Europeans | 你其实想推动欧洲人 |
| 805 | to grow their economy. | 以增长他们的经济。 |
| 806 | The, like, the tariff war with Europe's a fiasco, | 与欧洲的关税战争是一场失败 |
| 807 | because at this moment, we should use | 因为此时此刻,我们应该使用 |
| 808 | all of our political capital. | 我们所有的政治资本 |
| 809 | Europe, you want us to pay for your defense? | 欧洲,你要我们付你的辩护费? |
| 810 | Guess what, you're gonna go back to work. | 你猜怎么着 你要回去工作了 |
| 811 | Like, in France, there are strict limitations | 就像法国有严格的限制 |
| 812 | in how many hours you can work a week. | 每周能工作多少小时 |
| 813 | Strict limitations, it's ridiculous. | 严格的限制,这是荒谬的。 |
| 814 | Like, the French want the Americans | 像,法国人想要美国人 |
| 815 | to provide the defense for Europe, | 为欧洲提供防御 |
| 816 | and they don't wanna go to work. | 他们不想去上班 |
| 817 | This just doesn't work for the American people. | 这对美国人民不起作用 |
| 818 | So we've gotta grow productivity. | 所以我们必须提高生产率。 |
| 819 | That means that we need to support the AI revolution. | 这意味着我们需要支持AI革命. |
| 820 | We need to make sure that data centers are built in America. | 我们需要确保在美国建立数据中心。 |
| 821 | But we need more oars in the water. | 但我们需要更多的桨在水中。 |
| 822 | We need more focus on nuclear fusion, nuclear fission. | 我们需要更加注重核聚变,核裂变. |
| 823 | We need more focus on batteries. | 我们需要更多关注电池。 |
| 824 | We need more focus on robotics. | 我们需要更多关注机器人。 |
| 825 | We need more focuses on the technologies | 我们需要更多关注技术 |
| 826 | that will unleash productivity for the next 20 years. | 未来20年的生产力将会释放出来 |
| 827 | Like, that should be the singular focus | 喜欢,这应该是单一的焦点 |
| 828 | of our administration from an economic policy perspective. | 从经济政策的角度来看我们政府。 |
| 829 | Grow our economy and push our allies | 发展我们的经济,推动我们的盟友 |
| 830 | to engage in meaningful reforms that grow their economies. | 进行有意义的改革,促进经济增长。 |
| 831 | The entire Western world is in the same boat together. | 整个西方世界都在一条船上 |
| 832 | And it's not, we're not gonna get out of these waters | 我们不会离开这些水域的 |
| 833 | by torturing each other. | 通过折磨对方。 |
| 834 | We're gonna get out of these waters | 我们要离开这些水域 |
| 835 | by making the pie bigger for all of us. | 让馅饼变得更大 |
| 836 | That's number one. | 即第一义. |
| 837 | Number two is we have to fix education. | 第二,我们必须修补教育。 |
| 838 | We cannot have a country with broken schools | 我们不能有一个学校破碎的国家 |
| 839 | and expect to have the prosperity we've enjoyed | 并期望拥有我们享受的繁荣 |
| 840 | over the last 50 years. | 过去50年 |
| 841 | Back to Illinois, it's easy talking points. | 回到伊利诺伊州,很容易说话。 |
| 842 | Two or three years ago, 53 schools | 两三年前,53所学校 |
| 843 | without a single child at grade level. | 在年级一级没有独生子女。 |
| 844 | Let me just let that sink in. | 让我让它沉进去 |
| 845 | 53 schools, not one student in these schools | 53所学校,其中没有1名学生 |
| 846 | could perform at grade level. | 可以在级别上表演。 |
| 847 | That doesn't work. | 这行不通。 |
| 848 | What we do know works is something like Success Academies | 我们所知道的工作是像 成功学院 |
| 849 | here in New York with Eva Moskowitz. | 在纽约和伊娃·莫斯科维茨在一起 |
| 850 | I've had a chance to walk into a classroom of seniors | 我有机会走进一个高年级的教室 |
| 851 | and feel, frankly, quite humbled. | 坦率地说 感觉很谦卑 |
| 852 | You walk into the art history class, here's a painting. | 你走进艺术史课,这是一幅画。 |
| 853 | Who is the artist? | 谁是艺术家? |
| 854 | What was the year? | 今年几号? |
| 855 | What was the country? | 国家是什么? |
| 856 | What was the social issue of that moment in time? | 当时的社会问题是什么? |
| 857 | I don't know a lot of art. | 我不懂很多艺术 |
| 858 | I don't even know this artist. | 我甚至不认识这位艺术家。 |
| 859 | And some kid in the classroom puts his hand up | 班上有个孩子把手举起来 |
| 860 | and says, that's so-and-so. | 并说,这是如此,如此。 |
| 861 | France, this year, these were the issues of the time. | 法国,今年,这些都是当时的问题。 |
| 862 | It is so both heartwarming and impressive at the same time. | 它既令人振奋又令人印象深刻。 |
| 863 | Then number three is back to how do we recreate | 第三回是怎样重现 |
| 864 | the Simpson-Bowles? | 辛普森鲍尔斯? |
| 865 | How do we create the up-down vote | 我们如何创造上下投票 |
| 866 | on needed entitlement reforms in our country? | 我们国家需要的权利改革? |
| 867 | And in particular, we have to honor the promises | 尤其是,我们必须履行诺言 |
| 868 | that we've made to our retirees and near retirees, | 我们已经做了我们的退休人员 和接近退休人员, |
| 869 | but we need to have a really deep, thoughtful conversation | 但我们得好好谈谈 |
| 870 | about do you work one more year or two more years? | 你再工作一年还是两年? |
| 871 | Or how do we motivate you to work for two or three years | 或者我们如何激励你工作两三年 |
| 872 | before you take social security? | 在你接受社会保障之前? |
| 873 | And then immigration, just right to the point, | 然后,移民, 直指重点, |
| 874 | every single brilliant person around the world, | 全世界每一个杰出的人, |
| 875 | do you know what I want them to live? | 你知道我要他们活什么吗? |
| 876 | I want them to live in America. | 我希望他们住在美国。 |
| 877 | I want them here. | 我要他们在这里。 |
| 878 | Our colleges, our elite schools, | 我们的学院,我们的精英学校, |
| 879 | are 15 to 20% foreigners often. | 经常是15%至20%的外国人。 |
| 880 | Here's your degree, here's your green card. | 这是你的学位 这是你的绿卡 |
| 881 | We want them here in our country. | 我们要他们来我们国家 |
| 882 | So Ken, does it mean all of this essentially means | 肯,这到底意味着什么? |
| 883 | that there is a path to grow our way out of deficits? | 有一条路可以使我们摆脱赤字? |
| 884 | That when the bond market starts flashing | 当债券市场开始闪烁 |
| 885 | yellow and red lights, it's not as alarming | 黄色和红色的灯光,没有那么惊人 |
| 886 | because there is a path out of it and it's via growth. | 因为它有一条出路 它通过增长。 |
| 887 | Is that kind of the direction? | 是那种方向吗? |
| 888 | That's the only direction. | 这是唯一的方向。 |
| 889 | So you're not concerned, for example, | 所以,你并不担心,例如, |
| 890 | when you see bond yields at multi-decade highs? | 当你们在数十年的高空看到债券的收成的时候, |
| 891 | Oh no, I am worried. | 不,我很担心。 |
| 892 | And this is like, voters get to say their piece | 这就像,选民可以说他们的作品 |
| 893 | of the House and Senate here in a few weeks | 议会和参议院 几周后 |
| 894 | and the bond market is speaking pretty loudly now too. | 债券市场现在也非常响亮 |
| 895 | Do you think? | 你觉得呢? |
| 896 | And the bond market is telling the House and Senate, | 债券市场告诉众议院和参议院, |
| 897 | you need to start to put the fiscal House in order. | 你需要开始让财政院保持秩序。 |
| 898 | But what the bond market doesn't as clearly communicate | 但债券市场没有那么清楚的沟通 |
| 899 | is you're gonna get the House to order | 你会得到众议院的命令 |
| 900 | by getting productivity up. | 通过提高生产率。 |
| 901 | Right. | 对 |
| 902 | That's, I mean, every talking point from Washington, DC | 华盛顿的每个谈话点 |
| 903 | should be about entrepreneurship, | 应该是关于创业, |
| 904 | about productivity gains, | 关于生产力的提高, |
| 905 | about how we're gonna grow our economy | 关于我们如何发展经济 |
| 906 | and how it's gonna be an economy | 和如何这将是经济 |
| 907 | where everyone feels like they're getting ahead. | 所有人都觉得自己领先了 |
| 908 | So the bond market is speaking. | 所以债券市场在说话。 |
| 909 | Do you think they're listening? | 你觉得他们在听吗? |
| 910 | Not yet. | 还没 |
| 911 | What happens if they don't? | 如果他们不这样做怎么办? |
| 912 | You know, we're gonna see higher inflation. | 你知道,我们会看到更高的通货膨胀。 |
| 913 | We're gonna see the dollar weaken | 我们会看到美元贬值 |
| 914 | and we're gonna see our standard living fall. | 我们会看到我们的标准生活下降。 |
| 915 | You know, Ken, as you were talking about | 你知道,肯,就像你说的 |
| 916 | Governor Pritzker calling you out, | 普里茨克州长叫你出来 |
| 917 | I can't help but just think about | 我忍不住想着 |
| 918 | you've been a punching bag in recent years | 近些年来你一直是个拳击手 |
| 919 | for various politicians. | 给政客们 |
| 920 | You've been particularly outspoken | 你特别直言不讳 |
| 921 | about Mayor Mamdani. | 关于市长马姆达尼。 |
| 922 | The way he started that. | 他那样开始的 |
| 923 | Yes, he did. | 是的,他这样做。 |
| 924 | And I think everybody knows that, Ken, | 我想每个人都知道,肯 |
| 925 | and I think everybody remembers the moment | 我想每个人都记得那一刻 |
| 926 | you called it creepy and weird, too. | 你说这很诡异 |
| 927 | I think that stuck with a lot of people. | 我想这和很多人在一起 |
| 928 | He's since moved on to other issues, | 他从此进入其他问题 |
| 929 | notably stopped name dropping you, | 特别是不再给你起名 |
| 930 | which I assume you're quite happy about. | 我猜你对此很满意 |
| 931 | The tax he was proposing stalled by the courts. | 他提出的税收被法院搁置。 |
| 932 | Is there a relationship between you and the mayor? | 你和市长有关系吗? |
| 933 | How do things stand? | 情况如何? |
| 934 | There's not a relationship between the mayor and me | 市长和我之间没有关系 |
| 935 | and that's okay. | 没关系 |
| 936 | Like, you know, I'll be right to the point. | 喜欢,你知道,我会 正确的重点。 |
| 937 | I live in Miami, involved in politics in Florida. | 我住在迈阿密 参与佛罗里达的政治 |
| 938 | I hope that New York picks really good leaders, | 我希望纽约能选出优秀的领袖 |
| 939 | but I just don't wanna be involved in New York politics. | 但我不想参与纽约的政治 |
| 940 | All right? | 好吗? |
| 941 | I do have two and a half thousand employees here | 我这儿有两千五千个员工 |
| 942 | who are deeply involved in New York politics. | 他们深入 在纽约的政治。 |
| 943 | Deeply involved and I encourage that. | 深入参与,我鼓励这样做。 |
| 944 | But I really do think that New York needs to, | 但我确实认为纽约需要... |
| 945 | for itself, sort out the leadership it needs | 为了自己,整理出它所需要的领导 |
| 946 | for this great city. | 为这个伟大的城市。 |
| 947 | And New York is the greatest city in America, | 纽约是美国最伟大的城市 |
| 948 | arguably the greatest city in the world, | 可以说是世界上最伟大的城市 |
| 949 | and New York deserves one of the greatest mayors | 纽约值得一位最伟大的市长 |
| 950 | in the world. | 在这个世界。 |
| 951 | Where do you see Citadel's center of gravity? | 你从哪里看到Citadel的重力中心? |
| 952 | You mentioned the strong employee base here. | 你提到这里有强大的员工基地 |
| 953 | You have your Miami headquarters, too. | 你也有迈阿密总部 |
| 954 | Where's your center of gravity, Ken? | 你的重力中心在哪里 肯 |
| 955 | It's somewhere over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. | 它位于大西洋中部的某个地方. |
| 956 | You know, between London, Miami, and New York, | 在伦敦、迈阿密和纽约之间 |
| 957 | our center of gravity is somewhere over the middle | 我们的重力中心就在中间的某个地方 |
| 958 | of the Atlantic Ocean. | 大西洋沿岸海域的海况 |
| 959 | And I think that's the right place for it to be. | 我想这是合适的地方 |
| 960 | You know, it's a firm that takes, | 你知道,这是一个公司需要, |
| 961 | that's highly interconnected across the Western world, | 整个西方世界高度相连 |
| 962 | the Western world being principal Europe | 西方世界是主要的欧洲 |
| 963 | and the United States. | 美国和美国。 |
| 964 | There have been, it's been interesting | 曾经有过,这很有趣 |
| 965 | just to look at some of the numbers of growth | 只是看看一些增长的数量 |
| 966 | of financial professionals in Miami. | 在迈阿密的金融专业人士。 |
| 967 | Among you and your competitors, | 你和你的竞争者, |
| 968 | it's kind of in the tens, like 20 to 50 people, perhaps, | 大概有20到50个人 |
| 969 | of investment professionals. | 投资专业人员。 |
| 970 | It actually shrank in the past year. | 实际上去年收缩了 |
| 971 | And I wonder what you make of that. | 我想知道你对此有何看法。 |
| 972 | Is there something missing | 是不是少了点什么? |
| 973 | in terms of growth investment professionals in Miami? | 在迈阿密增长投资专业人员方面? |
| 974 | Is it happening at the rate that you would expect it to? | 这是以你期望的速度发生的吗? |
| 975 | Look, I think that the trajectory of cities | 听着 我认为城市的轨迹 |
| 976 | is written over decades. | 写了几十年。 |
| 977 | Like, it's not written overnight. | 喜欢,它不是写 一夜之间。 |
| 978 | And frankly, that's good. | 老实说,这很好 |
| 979 | I mean, you know, people put down roots. | 我的意思是,你知道, 人们放下根。 |
| 980 | They become parts of communities. | 他们成为社区的一部分。 |
| 981 | They become engaged in that community. | 他们参与这个社区。 |
| 982 | We don't want a nation of nomads. | 我们不要一个游牧民族 |
| 983 | We want a nation where people put down roots | 我们要一个人民扎根的国家 |
| 984 | and call someplace home. | 打电话回家 |
| 985 | And so the forces that have pushed people towards Miami | 所以把人们推向迈阿密的力量 |
| 986 | are strong, incredibly pro-business environment, | 是强大的,令人难以置信的 有利于商业的环境, |
| 987 | very high quality life, safe streets, good schools, | 非常高质量的生活,安全的街道,良好的学校, |
| 988 | and then there's challenges. | 还有挑战 |
| 989 | High cost of housing, transportation is a real challenge. | 住房、交通费用高昂是一个真正的挑战。 |
| 990 | I mean, so many people moved to Miami over the last decade. | 我的意思是,这么多人搬到迈阿密 在过去十年。 |
| 991 | The roads are, they're really congested. | 道路是,它们真的拥挤。 |
| 992 | So big picture. | 如此大观. |
| 993 | You know, Miami's experienced tremendous economic growth | 你知道,迈阿密经历了巨大的经济增长 |
| 994 | over the last 20 years. | 过去20年 |
| 995 | An enormous surge in wealth as a city. | 作为城市,财富激增。 |
| 996 | I mean, I can't, it's like California now. | 我的意思是,我不能, 它就像现在的加州。 |
| 997 | Like, did California descend all their billionaires | 像,加州 降他们所有的亿万富翁 |
| 998 | to Miami? | 去迈阿密? |
| 999 | It feels that way. | 感觉是这样的 |
| 1000 | And it's a city that very much embodies, | 这是一个城市,它非常体现, |
| 1001 | I think, the best of our country. | 我想,我们国家最好的。 |
| 1002 | And frankly, a lot of it's due to the Cuban immigrants. | 坦率地说,大部分都是古巴移民造成的. |
| 1003 | They came, I can't tell you how many people I've met | 他们来了,我不能告诉你我见过多少人 |
| 1004 | whose parents came here and never saw their parents again. | 他的父母来到这里, 从来没有见过他们的父母了。 |
| 1005 | And they came here with nothing. | 却一无所获 |
| 1006 | They came here to live the American dream. | 他们来这里是为了过美国梦 |
| 1007 | They came here and had families. | 他们来到这里并有家人。 |
| 1008 | They're not about to embrace socialism. | 他们不会接受社会主义的 |
| 1009 | They're not about to give up their personal freedoms. | 他们不会放弃个人自由 |
| 1010 | And that just permeates the culture of Miami, | 那只是渗透到迈阿密的文化, |
| 1011 | the sort of sense of I've come here for the American dream. | 那种感觉,我来到这里 美国梦。 |
| 1012 | I'm going to reject things that are an affront | 我要拒绝冒犯你的东西 |
| 1013 | to the values that this country was founded on. | 以及这个国家的价值观。 |
| 1014 | And I'm going to make sure that my kids are well-educated. | 我会确保我的孩子受过良好的教育。 |
| 1015 | I'm gonna make sure that I put in the effort | 我会确保我的努力 |
| 1016 | to run my business. | 经营我的生意。 |
| 1017 | And I'm gonna have safe streets. | 我会有安全的街道。 |
| 1018 | And the Cuban community in Miami is just really important | 迈阿密的古巴人社区也是非常重要的 |
| 1019 | to the ethos of that great city. | 敬那伟大的城市的风貌 |
| 1020 | And I'm grateful for that. | 我很感激这一点。 |
| 1021 | And we see this in the entrepreneurship in the city. | 我们在城市的创业中看到了这一点。 |
| 1022 | And I really do believe that when Carnegie Mellon | 我真的相信,当卡内基梅隆 |
| 1023 | comes to Miami, it will only help to further accelerate that. | 来到迈阿密,这只会有助于进一步加速。 |
| 1024 | Now, if you look at Pittsburgh, | 如果你看看匹兹堡 |
| 1025 | Pittsburgh's undergoing a second industrial revolution. | 匹兹堡正在经历第二次工业革命. |
| 1026 | This one led by robotics. | 这个由机器人领导。 |
| 1027 | There's a hundred companies in the field of robotics | 机器人领域有百家公司 |
| 1028 | around Carnegie Mellon University's campus. | 卡内基梅隆大学校园附近 |
| 1029 | And people forget CMU leads the world in robotics. | 人们忘记了CMU在机器人方面领先世界。 |
| 1030 | Number one in computer science. | 计算机科学第一. |
| 1031 | Number one in AI. | 在AI中排名第一. |
| 1032 | Number one in cybersecurity. | 网络安全第一. |
| 1033 | They are an extraordinary, extraordinary community | 他们是一个非凡、非凡的社区 |
| 1034 | of both students and faculty. | 无论是学生还是教师。 |
| 1035 | And for them to build a campus in Miami | 让他们在迈阿密建个校园 |
| 1036 | with thousands of undergraduates and graduate students | 有数千名本科生和研究生 |
| 1037 | will transform the city of Miami in a profound way. | 将深刻改造迈阿密市 |
| 1038 | Ken, we're just about out of time, | 肯,我们快没时间了 |
| 1039 | but I actually just wanna ask you finally about community. | 但我实际上只是想问你 关于社区。 |
| 1040 | It's something that you've been very clear about | 这是你很清楚的事情 |
| 1041 | 恰好在Citadel的文化内。 | |
| 1042 | At COVID, you were one of the first leaders | 在COVID,你是最早的领袖之一 |
| 1043 | to really say it is important to have people together. | 真正地说,重要的是 人在一起。 |
| 1044 | 你觉得如果Citadel, | |
| 1045 | if the center of gravity is somewhere | 如果重力中心在某个地方 |
| 1046 | in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean? | 在大西洋中部吗? |
| 1047 | How do you ensure cohesion as a team? | 如何确保团结作为一个团队? |
| 1048 | So number one is we keep the teams within Citadel | 所以第一,我们把队伍留在学校里 |
| 1049 | as much as possible in one geographical location. | 尽可能在一个地理位置。 |
| 1050 | So if you look at the top level of the business | 所以,如果你看看 顶层的业务 |
| 1051 | and then you go down the verticals of what we do, | 然后你走下垂直 我们做什么, |
| 1052 | those verticals are very geographically centered | 这些垂直的地理中心 |
| 1053 | because we think that's very important for teams | 因为我们觉得这对团队很重要 |
| 1054 | to work together physically whenever possible. | 尽可能在身体上合作。 |
| 1055 | Nothing beats a whiteboard and a good debate. | 没有什么能比白板和辩论更精彩 |
| 1056 | And you walk in my office, there's a big whiteboard. | 你走进我的办公室 有个大白板 |
| 1057 | You walk into all of our boardrooms, | 你走进我们所有的董事会, |
| 1058 | there's big whiteboards. | 这里有大白板 |
| 1059 | Our walls all over many of our offices are writable. | 我们许多办事处的墙壁都是可书写的。 |
| 1060 | You just get up and write on a wall. | 你只是站起来,写在墙上。 |
| 1061 | Nothing beats that person to person interaction. | 没有什么能胜过他 人的互动。 |
| 1062 | And what we find is that in terms of developing talent | 我们发现,在培养人才方面 |
| 1063 | for our younger team members | 给我们的年轻团队成员 |
| 1064 | to be in a immersive environment with your boss | 和你老板在浸润的环境中 |
| 1065 | who's your mentor, with your peers, | 谁是你的导师, 与你的同伴, |
| 1066 | who are also in many ways your mentors, | 他们在许多方面都是你的导师, |
| 1067 | nothing beats that physical proximity. | 没有比这更接近的了 |
| 1068 | And I think it does create a really special place. | 我认为它确实创造了一个特别的地方。 |
| 1069 | I think that's a wonderful note to end it on. | 结束它,我认为这是一个美妙的音符。 |
| 1070 | Ken, thank you so much for spending the time. | 肯,谢谢你花时间 |
| 1071 | Thank you, thank you so much. | 谢谢,非常感谢。 |
| 1072 | Everyone please join me in thanking and blessing. | 请大家和我一起感谢和祝福。 |
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