从边缘学术工具起步，Kalshi如何逆袭为吞吐百亿的全球最大
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:05 | Isn't that a movie about insider trading? | 那不是关于内幕交易的电影吗? |
| 0:09 | But it's, well, the whole point is that it helps us think about all the dangers that | 但关键在于它能帮助我们思考所有危险 |
| 0:13 | we need to protect the markets from. | 我们需要保护市场不受伤害。 |
| 0:14 | Well, we want to tackle the issues head on, right? | 好吧,我们想解决 的问题正面,对不对? |
| 0:17 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:17 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 0:17 | And you can also take a joke, I guess. | 我想你也可以开个玩笑 |
| 0:19 | Yeah, exactly. | 没错 |
| 0:20 | I guess. | 应该是吧 |
| 0:22 | Tariq Mansour和Luana Lopez Lara是卡尔希的联合创始人 一个预测市场 |
展开字幕全文（452 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isn't that a movie about insider trading? | 那不是关于内幕交易的电影吗? |
| 2 | But it's, well, the whole point is that it helps us think about all the dangers that | 但关键在于它能帮助我们思考所有危险 |
| 3 | we need to protect the markets from. | 我们需要保护市场不受伤害。 |
| 4 | Well, we want to tackle the issues head on, right? | 好吧,我们想解决 的问题正面,对不对? |
| 5 | Right. | 对 |
| 6 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 7 | And you can also take a joke, I guess. | 我想你也可以开个玩笑 |
| 8 | Yeah, exactly. | 没错 |
| 9 | I guess. | 应该是吧 |
| 10 | Tariq Mansour和Luana Lopez Lara是卡尔希的联合创始人 一个预测市场 | |
| 11 | platform where you can bet on everything from today's weather to Taylor Swift's wedding. | 从今天的天气到泰勒·斯威夫特的婚礼 都可以赌上所有的钱 |
| 12 | But back in 2018, when they founded their company, very few people outside of academia | 但早在2018年,当他们成立公司时,学术界以外的人很少 |
| 13 | had heard of prediction markets. | 听说过预测市场。 |
| 14 | These days, Kalshi seems to be everywhere, with an in-your-face presence that's hard | 这些年,卡尔希似乎到处都是, 面对你,这是很难的 |
| 15 | to ignore. | 无视。 |
| 16 | Buzz, controversy, and a ton of money. | 巴斯,争议,一吨钱。 |
| 17 | Billions of dollars in trades. | 百万亿贸易. |
| 18 | These are fundamentally corrupt markets. | 这些基本上是腐败的市场。 |
| 19 | 75% of people lose money. | 75%的人输了钱。 |
| 20 | Do you feel a moral obligation to be more transparent about that? | 你是否觉得道德义务 要更加透明吗? |
| 21 | I think we're very transparent that, you know, there are risks. | 我觉得我们很透明,你知道,有风险。 |
| 22 | People lose money and people win money. | 人败财败财. |
| 23 | Its blockbuster growth has been fueled by a generation of users drawn in by the lure | 被诱骗的一代用户 刺激了它的发展 |
| 24 | of easy money. | 轻松的钱。 |
| 25 | Why isn't Kalshi a casino in your pocket? | 为什么卡尔希不在你的口袋里? |
| 26 | That's like same as asking, like, why is AI good for society, right? | 这跟问为什么AI对社会有好处一样,对吧? |
| 27 | Like, these are large, complex topics that cannot be summarized in a sound bite. | 例如,这些是大型的,复杂的话题,无法用声音叮咬来概括. |
| 28 | But as Kalshi continues on its trajectory, it's now facing a host of new competitors, | 但随着卡尔希继续走在它的轨道上, 它现在面临一系列新的竞争者, |
| 29 | vocal opponents, and a very public debate about what this platform is and the potential | 以及一场关于这个平台的公众辩论, |
| 30 | harms it can cause. | 这会造成伤害。 |
| 31 | It can feel a little bit like being in the middle of a hurricane sometimes. | 它有时会感觉有点像在飓风中 |
| 32 | What speed are the winds blowing today? | 今天风速是多少? |
| 33 | When I get to the office, we'll see. | 我到办公室后再看 |
| 34 | Category five? | 第五类? |
| 35 | Yeah, maybe. | 是啊,也许。 |
| 36 | So this is your old walk to Goldman. | 这就是你以前去戈德曼的散步 |
| 37 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 38 | I really loved it. | 我真的很喜欢 |
| 39 | I mean, it was really cool. | 我的意思是,这是真的很酷。 |
| 40 | And like, you know, tall buildings and finance and I'm a math geek, so, you know, it's really | 就像,你知道,高大的建筑和金融 我是个数学怪胎,所以,你知道,这是真的 |
| 41 | kind of a very exciting time. | 有点激动人心 |
| 42 | How does a mathematical mind see the world that the rest of us don't? | 数学头脑如何看待我们其他人所没有的世界? |
| 43 | So growing up in Lebanon, it was a very volatile country. | 在黎巴嫩长大,这是一个非常动荡的国家。 |
| 44 | The Delta, like the difference between good and bad can be an hour. | 三角洲,就像好和坏之间的区别 可能是一个小时。 |
| 45 | All this chaos outside and this volatility, and it was just like heart to stomach. | 外面的混乱和波动 就像胃的心脏一样 |
| 46 | What it made me do is view the world essentially more probabilistically. | 它让我做的是 从本质上看世界的概率 |
| 47 | That has sort of in some ways propelled every decision I made all the way to starting Kalshi. | 这在某种程度上推动了我做出的所有决定 开始卡尔希。 |
| 48 | Mansour left Lebanon to attend MIT and then became a trader on Wall Street. | 曼苏尔离开黎巴嫩参加麻省理工学院,之后成为华尔街的商人. |
| 49 | In 2016, he watched as big banks and hedge funds scrambled to offset risk. | 2016年,他观看大银行和对冲基金为抵消风险而摇摆不定. |
| 50 | It was all about like Brexit and the Trump election. | 就像布莱克西特和特朗普的选举 |
| 51 | And everybody was super stressed about that. | 每个人都对此很紧张。 |
| 52 | And you could feel the anxiety. | 你可以感觉到焦虑。 |
| 53 | No one saw it coming though. | 但没人看到它来。 |
| 54 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 55 | I mean, that's the whole thing, right? | 我的意思是,这是整个事情,对不对? |
| 56 | Like a bunch of the sort of institutional investors are saying like, oh, what do we | 就像一群机构投资者在说 |
| 57 | do? | 是吗? |
| 58 | How do we kind of like get a position on Trump winning? | 我们怎样才能赢得川普的胜利? |
| 59 | What's a Trump trade? | 什么是特朗普贸易? |
| 60 | But this is the thing that really got me excited about, well, what if these investors could | 但是,这是真正让我兴奋的事情, 那么,如果这些投资者可以 |
| 61 | just buy yes on Trump winning the election? | 只要买下特朗普赢得选举的"是"? |
| 62 | That just seems like a much more direct, simple way to do it. | 这似乎是一个更直接、更简单的方法。 |
| 63 | Kalshi is a peer-to-peer platform. | 卡尔希是一个对等平台. |
| 64 | Every trade is a contract, a simple yes or no on whether something will happen. | 每个交易都是合同, 简单是或不是关于 事情是否会发生。 |
| 65 | By the yes and somewhere on the other side, someone is betting you're wrong. | 有人在赌你错了 |
| 66 | The price of that contract moves in real time based on what the market believes. | 这份合同的价格根据市场的看法实时变动。 |
| 67 | Kalshi makes money by charging a transaction fee on every trade. | Kalshi通过向每个行业收取交易费来赚钱. |
| 68 | So Kalshi means everything in Arabic. | 所以卡尔希在阿拉伯语中意味着一切. |
| 69 | What does that say about your ambitions? | 你的目标是什么? |
| 70 | We want to build a financial market that is sort of, anyone can basically participate | 我们想建立一个金融市场 可以说,任何人都可以参与 |
| 71 | in it. | 进去吧 |
| 72 | That doesn't mean everybody's going to win, but you have a shot to, if you do the research, | 这并不意味着每个人都会赢 但你有机会 如果你做研究 |
| 73 | if you learn, if you dig into topics, you've got to get into a rabbit hole, you can get | 如果你学会了,如果你挖掘话题, 你必须进入一个兔子洞,你可以得到 |
| 74 | better. | 好多了,你还好吧? |
| 75 | So keep trying? | 所以继续尝试? |
| 76 | I mean, should anyone stop? | 有人可以停下来吗? |
| 77 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 78 | I mean, I think, you know, 75% of our customers don't trade. | 我的意思是,我认为,你知道, 75%的客户 不交易。 |
| 79 | They use it for the forecast. | 他们用它做预测。 |
| 80 | And the thing that they like about it is because in some ways, prediction markets are sort | 他们喜欢的是 在某些方面 预测市场是排序 |
| 81 | of one of the only non-elite sources of information. | 这是唯一的非精英信息来源之一。 |
| 82 | When you look at prediction markets, it's bottom up. | 当你看预测市场时,这是自下而上。 |
| 83 | It's people that are essentially putting skin in the game, money where their mouth is. | 根本上是人们把皮肤放进游戏中 钱就在嘴里 |
| 84 | And so people find the data very, very valuable. | 所以人们发现数据非常非常非常宝贵。 |
| 85 | Have you been here before? | 你来过这里吗? |
| 86 | I haven't. | 我没有。 |
| 87 | Oh, it's your first time? | 哦,这是你的第一次? |
| 88 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 89 | What's the vibe? | 是什么感觉? |
| 90 | How would you describe the culture here? | 你会如何描述这里的文化? |
| 91 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 92 | It's pretty calm, I think. | 我觉得这很平静 |
| 93 | Culture is everybody's working. | 文化是每个人的工作。 |
| 94 | They're very focused. | 他们非常专注。 |
| 95 | So good to see you. | 很高兴见到你。 |
| 96 | Good to see you. | 很高兴见到你。 |
| 97 | Thanks so much for having us. | 谢谢你邀请我们 |
| 98 | Of course. | 当然 |
| 99 | Thank you for having us. | 谢谢你邀请我们 |
| 100 | Mansour's co-founder and Kalshi COO Luana Lopez Lara had an unorthodox path to | 曼苏尔的联合创始人和卡尔希·COO·卢安娜·洛佩兹·拉拉有一条非正统的道路 |
| 101 | the world of fintech. | 费奇的世界。 |
| 102 | Growing up in Brazil, she trained as a ballerina before pivoting to math and computer science. | 在巴西长大后,她作为芭蕾舞演员接受过训练,然后开始从事数学和计算机科学。 |
| 103 | There are a lot of stories out there. | 那里有很多故事 |
| 104 | What's true, not true? | 什么是真实的,不是真实的? |
| 105 | Well, there's a lot of untrue. | 有很多不真实的 |
| 106 | There's a lot of untrue. | 有许多不真实的。 |
| 107 | Yeah, it's hard there. | 是啊,这是很难的。 |
| 108 | So you met at MIT. | 所以你在麻省理工学院见过面 |
| 109 | Yep. | 对 |
| 110 | There's a story that Luana is the smart one and that you used to try to sit next to her | 有个故事说Luana是聪明的 你曾经试着坐在她旁边 |
| 111 | to learn her study habits. | 学习她的学习习惯。 |
| 112 | She was more nerdy. | 她更讨厌。 |
| 113 | Tariq was the type of guy that tried to seem very cool. | Tariq是那种看起来很酷的人 |
| 114 | I knew I wasn't cool. | 我知道我不冷静。 |
| 115 | I'm like, I'm not going to be cool. | 我好像,我不会冷静。 |
| 116 | I might as well just study and be nerdy and sit in the front row. | 我不如去学书 呆呆地坐在前排 |
| 117 | I also heard you used to date. | 我也听说你以前约会过 |
| 118 | True? | 是吗? |
| 119 | A long time ago, yes. | 很久以前了,是的。 |
| 120 | That's true. | 没错 |
| 121 | How did you get beyond that to launch the startup? | 你是怎么超越这个范围启动的? |
| 122 | Well, the company always comes first for us, essentially. | 公司总是以我们为首 |
| 123 | And by the time we started the company, it was basically already fizzled out. | 当我们开始公司的时候,它基本上已经崩溃了。 |
| 124 | Company above all else. | 公司领先一切。 |
| 125 | And you know, it's worked out for us. | 你知道,这对我们来说是可行的。 |
| 126 | In 2020, in the final months of the first Trump administration, they cleared their first | 2020年,在首届特朗普政府的最后几个月里,他们清除了他们的首个 |
| 127 | when they got approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become the first | 当他们得到商品期货交易委员会批准成为第一个 |
| 128 | federally regulated event contract exchange. | 联邦监管的活动合同交换。 |
| 129 | But Kalshi was limited to the kinds of markets the agency had traditionally regulated. | 但卡尔希仅限于该机构传统上监管的各类市场. |
| 130 | When they tried to expand into elections, the CFTC, then under the Biden administration, | 当他们试图扩大选举, 公平贸易委员会,然后在拜登政府之下, |
| 131 | said no, calling election betting a form of gaming. | 拒绝,称选举赌博是一种游戏形式。 |
| 132 | So Kalshi decided to sue its own regulator. | 于是卡尔希决定起诉自己的监管机构. |
| 133 | What made you so sure that was the right move? | 是什么让你这么确定 这是正确的举动? |
| 134 | It was kind of the only option we had in a lot of ways. | 这是我们在很多方面唯一的选择。 |
| 135 | Because if we don't do it, these markets might never see the light of day. | 因为如果我们不这样做,这些市场可能永远看不到光明。 |
| 136 | Because we really had another company that tried to do it and do it. | 因为我们真的有另一家公司 试图做到这一点和做。 |
| 137 | So it was a sense of responsibility there, but also because we were right. | 因此,这是一种责任感, 但也因为我们是正确的。 |
| 138 | In 2024, just weeks before the presidential election, Kalshi won its lawsuit against | 2024年,在总统选举前的几周,卡尔希赢得了对 |
| 139 | the CFTC and started offering markets on elections. | 并开始为选举提供市场。 |
| 140 | Prediction markets were thrust into the national conversation as bettors rushed in. | 随着赌徒们的冲进,预测性市场被推向了全国对话。 |
| 141 | And while polls showed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck, | 当民调显示卡马拉·哈里斯和唐纳德·特朗普的脖子和颈部时, |
| 142 | Kalshi's markets gave Trump over 60% odds. | 卡尔希的市场给了特朗普超过60%的概率. |
| 143 | In the weeks around the election, Kalshi processed over $100 million in trades. | 在选举前后的几周里,卡尔希处理了超过1亿美元的交易. |
| 144 | Looking at our billboard, right in top square. | 看着我们的广告牌,就在上方方 |
| 145 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 146 | We realized with obviously the number of users coming in, the volume, how much it was cited | 我们意识到,显然 用户的数量,数量,有多少被引用 |
| 147 | by the media, we realized, oh wow, it actually might be happening for real now. | 由媒体,我们意识到, 哦哇, 它实际上可能是 真实的现在。 |
| 148 | With Donald Trump back in the White House, prediction markets that the Biden administration | 唐纳德·特朗普回到白宫后 预言拜登政府 |
| 149 | flagged for review were suddenly fine. | 被标注为审查的突然是好的。 |
| 150 | Since then, the bets have kept on coming. | 从那以后,赌注就一直来 |
| 151 | The breakneck growth of prediction markets has been led by two players, Kalshi and its | 预测市场的突破性增长 由两个角色主导 卡尔希及其 |
| 152 | 由CEO谢恩·科普兰(英语:Shane Copeland)领导。 | |
| 153 | And the hostility between Mansour and Copeland is well documented. | 而曼苏尔和科普兰之间的敌意也有大量记载. |
| 154 | How bad is the bad blood? | 恶血多恶. |
| 155 | It really isn't that bad. | 真的没那么糟 |
| 156 | It certainly seems bad if you read the tabloids or even tweets. | 如果你读小报甚至微博, |
| 157 | The tabloids, you know, the tabloids love drama, I mean, they're tabloids, right? | 小报,你知道,小报喜欢戏剧, 我的意思是,他们是小报,对不对? |
| 158 | Like, it all is centered around, you know, doing the right thing. | 喜欢,一切都围绕, 你知道,做正确的事情。 |
| 159 | And then when you have an actor that essentially doesn't do that, that can basically like | 当你有一个演员 基本上不这样做, 那基本上可以喜欢 |
| 160 | sully the industry a little bit. | 玷污业略. |
| 161 | The coverage is it doesn't say PolyMarket did X, Y, and Z, it says prediction markets | 报道不是说PolyMarket做了X、Y和Z 说是预测市场 |
| 162 | X,Y,还有Z。 | |
| 163 | And we are put in a position where we always have to explain to people that like, no, we're | 我们处于一个位置 我们总是不得不 向人们解释 |
| 164 | not doing war markets, we're not doing death markets. | 不做战争市场,我们不做死亡市场。 |
| 165 | PolyMarket didn't respond to our request for comment. | PolyMarket没有回应我们的评论请求. |
| 166 | The company says it prohibits insider trading and manipulation, and that Kalshi's ads are | 公司说禁止内幕交易和操纵 卡尔希的广告是 |
| 167 | misinforming the public, which only harms the industry as a whole and participants. | 误导公众,只会伤害整个行业和参与者. |
| 168 | Kalshi says it doesn't offer markets on death, assassinations, or war in keeping with U.S. | 卡尔希说,它不提供市场 在死亡,暗杀, 或战争符合美国。 |
| 169 | regulations. | 条例。 |
| 170 | But playing by the rules doesn't mean Kalshi is content to play it safe. | 但按照规则演奏并不意味着卡尔希满足于安全演奏. |
| 171 | Their ads make that pretty clear. | 他们的广告说得很清楚 |
| 172 | If history has taught us anything, it's not to root against the underdog. | 如果历史告诉我们什么, 它不是根对弱者。 |
| 173 | Kalshi! | 卡尔希! |
| 174 | Yet as the number of prediction markets has grown, so has the temptation for some to trade | 然而,随着预测市场数量的增加,一些人进行贸易的诱惑也随之增加。 |
| 175 | on insider information. | 关于内幕信息。 |
| 176 | Federal regulators said a White House teleprompter operator made over $100,000 by placing bets | 联邦监管部门说,一个白宫的电信快报运营商通过下注赚了超过10万美元 |
| 177 | on Trump's speeches. | 关于特朗普的演讲。 |
| 178 | Former U.S. Representative George Santos posted on social media that he would show up for | 前美国众议员乔治·桑托斯在社交媒体上发文称,他将出席 |
| 179 | the State of the Union. | 联盟国。 |
| 180 | Meanwhile, he placed multiple bets on Kalshi that he would not attend, making over $17,000. | 与此同时,他给Kalshi投了多个他不会参加的赌注,赚了17,000多美元. |
| 181 | I'm going to be in the gallery. | 我要去画廊 |
| 182 | I never said I was going to be on the floor, or maybe. | 我从来没有说过我会在地板上,也许。 |
| 183 | The CFTC called it manipulation, and Kalshi banned him for life. | 公平贸易委员会称其为操纵,卡尔希则终身禁止他. |
| 184 | I know you are very busy because there is not a lull in these markets. | 我知道你很忙,因为这些市场没有停息。 |
| 185 | 彭博会记者克里斯托弗·贝姆(Christopher Beam)和德尼察·策科娃(Denitsa Tsekova)一直在报道爆炸性上升 | |
| 186 | of prediction markets day in and day out. | 日复一日的预测市场。 |
| 187 | How many more cases like this are we likely to see? | 我们还可能看到多少这样的案子? |
| 188 | I think it's inevitable. | 我认为这是不可避免的。 |
| 189 | The incentives are there, and when the incentives are there, someone's going to take advantage | 奖励措施已经到位,当奖励措施到位时,有人会利用 |
| 190 | of it. | 对 |
| 191 | Kalshi says that they are cracking down on insider trading, cracking down on manipulation, | Kalshi说他们在打击内部交易 打击操纵 |
| 192 | but you also have to wonder how far that's going to extend. | 但你也必须想知道这到底要持续多久 |
| 193 | As those markets grow and as the group of people who have that information grows, I | 随着这些市场的增长,随着拥有这种信息的人群的增长,我 |
| 194 | can see how this is harder and harder to prosecute. | 可以看到,这很难起诉。 |
| 195 | Quick game. | 快速游戏. |
| 196 | Great. | 不错 |
| 197 | Insider versus expert. | 内线对专家。 |
| 198 | A White House staffer on a presidential announcement. | 一个白宫的职员在总统的宣布。 |
| 199 | That would be an insider. | 那会是一个内幕。 |
| 200 | A player's girlfriend or boyfriend on injury status. | 玩家的女友或男友受伤状态. |
| 201 | Well, one, we'd never do this market, and two, that would be an insider. | 第一,我们永远不会做这个市场, 第二,这将是一个内幕。 |
| 202 | A Federal Reserve employee on interest rates. | 一个美联储雇员的利率。 |
| 203 | If they have knowledge beforehand of what they're going to decide, definitely insider. | 如果他们事先知道他们要决定什么 绝对是内幕 |
| 204 | So if you have a market for just about everything, almost everyone can be an insider. | 所以,如果你有一个市场 仅仅关于一切, 几乎每个人都可以是一个内幕。 |
| 205 | Can't anything be gamed? | 什么都玩不下去吗? |
| 206 | Manipulation insider trading exists in all financial markets, the same way that fraud | 所有金融市场都存在操纵内幕交易,与欺诈一样 |
| 207 | and cheating exist in any system. | 任何系统都存在欺骗 |
| 208 | The key thing is how do you regulate that system to make sure you root out the insiders | 关键在于你如何调节这个系统 以确保你根除内幕 |
| 209 | and the cheaters and establish fair rules of the road so that people can participate | 和作弊者,并制订公平的道路规则,以便人们参与; |
| 210 | fairly. | 相当公平 |
| 211 | Yet the CFTC, the very agency that's supposed to police all of this, has been hollowed out. | 联邦公平贸易委员会 本来应该负责整件事的机构 却被打空了 |
| 212 | Under President Trump, the five-person commission is now down to one man, Chair Michael Selig, | 在特朗普总统的领导下,五人委员会现在降为一人,主席迈克尔·塞利格, |
| 213 | a Trump appointee who's acted more like a champion than a watchdog. | 一个被特朗普任命的人 表现得更像冠军而不是监督者 |
| 214 | This is financial market activity, so it's something that I think is valuable to society. | 这是金融市场的活动,所以我认为它是对社会有价值的. |
| 215 | Meanwhile, the markets he's supposed to be watching keep expanding. | 同时,他应该看的市场不断扩张. |
| 216 | None faster than sports, Cal-She's biggest category. | 没有比运动更快, 卡尔-谢最大的类别。 |
| 217 | During the World Cup, Cal-She recorded $27 billion in trading volume and added 3 million | 世界杯期间,卡尔-谢创下了270亿美元的交易量,并增加了300万美元. |
| 218 | new users. | 新用户。 |
| 219 | You've talked a lot about how Cal-She is diversifying away from sports, but by our | 你说过很多关于Cal -She是如何从运动中多样化的 但是通过我们 |
| 220 | count it's still 75% of volume. | 计其仍为卷之七十五. |
| 221 | So how diverse are you if sports still pays for this? | 那么,如果体育还为此付出代价,你有多多样化? |
| 222 | Yeah, I'm not sure if that counts right. | 我不确定这算不算对 |
| 223 | I mean, it depends on how you count. | 我的意思是,这取决于你怎么计算。 |
| 224 | So it's lower. | 故为下. |
| 225 | I mean, you know, we're at 95% at the beginning of the year, much lower now. | 我的意思是,你知道,我们95% 在年初,现在更低。 |
| 226 | I think it's like two-thirds or 70%. | 我认为这就像三分之二或70%。 |
| 227 | And so they tend to be an effective way for people to basically come into the product, | 因此,它们往往是一个有效的方法 人们基本上进入产品, |
| 228 | experience it, understand it, and then they start exploring other things. | 体验,理解,然后他们开始探索其他事物. |
| 229 | Sports betting is legal in nearly 40 states, but those operators pay millions in state | 体育赌注在近40个州是合法的, 但那些运营商在州内支付数百万美元 |
| 230 | licenses and taxes. | 许可证和税收。 |
| 231 | Cal-She doesn't. | 卡尔 -她没有。 |
| 232 | What are Cal-She's biggest threats at this point? | 卡尔 -她最大的威胁是什么? |
| 233 | Well, the states, particularly the gambling companies based in the states and regulated | 各州,特别是以各州为基地的 受管制的赌场 |
| 234 | by the states. | 由各州组成。 |
| 235 | Obviously, the gambling companies want to make money, the states want to raise taxes. | 显然,赌博公司想赚钱,各州想提高税收. |
| 236 | And so they are probably the biggest antagonist to Cal-She right now. | 所以他们可能是卡尔-谢最大的对手 |
| 237 | Without sports, what is Cal-She? | 没有运动,什么是卡尔 -谢? |
| 238 | A much smaller company. | 一个小得多的公司。 |
| 239 | Cal-She operates as an exchange and says it's different from sports books, which take the | Cal-She作为交换机运作,并说这与体育书籍不同,体育书籍取用 |
| 240 | opposite side of bets and win when their bettors lose. | 赌注的对面,当赌注者输时获胜. |
| 241 | Opponents argue Cal-She is a gambling platform that has found a legal loophole. | 反对者认为卡尔-谢是一个赌博平台,已经发现了法律漏洞. |
| 242 | 44 states have signed a letter calling prediction markets a new form of casino, and 20 are fighting | 已有44个州签署信件, 称预测市场为新形式的赌场, |
| 243 | in court over whether state sports betting laws apply. | 在法庭上讨论国家体育赌注法是否适用。 |
| 244 | The CFTC has responded by suing states right back in what's become a full-blown turf | 联邦公平贸易委员会回应说, 起诉各州, |
| 245 | war over who should regulate prediction markets. | 争夺谁应该监管预测市场 |
| 246 | What happens to Cal-She if sports betting goes away? | 如果体育赌博没了 卡尔-谢会怎么样? |
| 247 | It's hard to imagine a world where you're going to carve out specific topics because | 很难想象一个世界 你会刻出 具体的主题,因为 |
| 248 | some people believe that's OK versus not others. | 有些人认为这与其他人无关 |
| 249 | And then the structure is sort of the key thing that determines how we should be regulated. | 然后结构是决定我们应如何管理的关键。 |
| 250 | What we're focused on is making sure that people understand that difference between | 我们所关注的是确保人们理解 区别于 |
| 251 | an exchange and how it works, and a sports book and how it works, and why they're different. | 交流和如何运作, 运动书和如何运作, 和为什么它们不同。 |
| 252 | One is federally regulated and one is regulated at the state level. | 一是联邦管理,一是州一级管理。 |
| 253 | Why isn't Cal-She a casino in your pocket? | 为什么Cal -She不在你的口袋里? |
| 254 | It looks and feels like gambling. | 它看起来像赌博。 |
| 255 | It looks like someone's speculating, feels like it's a form of gambling. | 它看起来像某人的投机,感觉这是一种赌博形式. |
| 256 | But there's a key distinction and key difference. | 但有关键区别和关键区别. |
| 257 | On Cal-She, when customers lose, they don't lose it to me. | 在Cal -She,当顾客输了, 他们不会失去它给我。 |
| 258 | They lose it to other customers. | 他们输给了其他客户。 |
| 259 | So my role is to establish fair rules of the game for the marketplace to thrive. | 所以我的作用是制定公平的游戏规则,让市场繁荣。 |
| 260 | But you do take a fee on every trade. | 但你每次交易都要交钱 |
| 261 | Yeah, we're not a nonprofit. | 是啊,我们不是非营利的。 |
| 262 | New York Stock Exchange takes a fee on every trade, right? | 纽约证券交易所每笔交易都要收费,对吧? |
| 263 | We take 0.8%. | 我们拿0.8%。 |
| 264 | They take something similar. | 他们采取类似的东西。 |
| 265 | That doesn't make the New York Stock Exchange gambling. | 这不代表纽约证券交易所赌博 |
| 266 | But the more people bet, the more money you make. | 但人赌越多,你赚的钱就越多. |
| 267 | So your incentive is volume. | 所以,你的奖励是数量。 |
| 268 | Do you have a financial interest in more people betting more, whether or not it's good for them? | 你对更多的人赌博有经济利益吗,不管是否对他们有利? |
| 269 | I have a financial interest in having more users. | 我对拥有更多的用户有经济利益。 |
| 270 | Yes, the same way that the Nasdaq has a financial interest in having more users and more volume. | 是的,同样的方式,纳斯达克有经济利益 拥有更多的用户和数量。 |
| 271 | The Nasdaq is not figuring out who are their winners and who are their losers and treat them differently. | 纳斯达克人并不知道谁是他们的胜利者,谁是他们的失败者,并对他们区别对待。 |
| 272 | Do you know what a prediction market is? | 你知道什么是预测市场吗? |
| 273 | It's something that's like come out of gambling and trading too. | 就像赌博和交易一样 |
| 274 | And it's just something that people are using just to pass the time. | 而人们只是用它来传递时间。 |
| 275 | Is it gambling or is it trading? | 是赌博还是交易? |
| 276 | It's the same thing as gambling. | 与赌博无异. |
| 277 | I mean, it's just essentially you can bet on anything. | 我的意思是,它只是本质上 你可以赌任何东西。 |
| 278 | Like 20, 30 years ago, the generation had to go out and go out of their own house to gamble, | 像20,30年前, 一代人不得不出去 走出自己的房子赌博, |
| 279 | where now you can just wake up and 10 seconds later, you're gambling. | 在那里你可以只是醒来 10秒后,你在赌博。 |
| 280 | I know it's affecting my generation, yeah. | 我知道这影响了我这一代人 |
| 281 | I mean, I know friends that are addicted to it and it ruins lives. | 我的意思是,我知道朋友谁上瘾 它毁了生活。 |
| 282 | Does it sound like gambling to you? | 听起来像是赌博吗? |
| 283 | I think that if you exercise restraint, I think you can go either way. | 我认为,如果你保持克制, 我想你可以走的方式。 |
| 284 | I think that if you're doing it as like a fun hobby, then absolutely. | 我认为,如果你这样做 作为一个有趣的爱好, 那么绝对。 |
| 285 | So like if it's five days, it's gambling. | 故如是五日即是赌. |
| 286 | I think for your average user, the experience of using a prediction market | 我想对于你的普通用户来说 利用预测市场的经验 |
| 287 | is pretty much identical to using a gambling app, which is why this argument that, | 和用赌博软件差不多 这就是为什么这个论点 |
| 288 | oh, it's not sports gambling, it's derivatives contracts, event contracts. | 哦,这不是体育赌博, 这是衍生品合同,活动合同。 |
| 289 | Those are kind of technicalities that might pass muster in a court. | 这些技术问题可能会传到法庭 |
| 290 | But I think for your average person, just don't really pass the smell test. | 但我想对于你普通人来说, 只是不要真的通过嗅觉测试。 |
| 291 | The question of whether Cal-She is a financial exchange or gambling company | Cal-She是金融交易所还是赌博公司的问题 |
| 292 | may ultimately be decided by the highest court. | 最终可由最高法院裁决。 |
| 293 | Does the Supreme Court take up the case of who should regulate prediction markets? | 最高法院是否受理应由谁监管预测市场的案件? |
| 294 | Yes or no? | 是还是不是? |
| 295 | I'd probably say yes. | 我可能答应了 |
| 296 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 297 | That's a question for lawyers. | 这是一个律师的问题。 |
| 298 | I mean, I don't know. | 我是说,我不知道。 |
| 299 | Trump has made it clear he thinks this is the federal government's turf. | 特朗普明确表示,他认为这是联邦政府的地盘. |
| 300 | His son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor in Polymarket and a paid advisor to Cal-She. | 他的儿子小唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump Jr.)是Polymarket的投资者,也是卡尔-谢的付费顾问. |
| 301 | In 2025, he received a $300,000 equity stake in Cal-She | 2025年,他在卡尔-谢获得了30万美元的股权 |
| 302 | that's now potentially worth millions. | 现在可能值上百万 |
| 303 | I don't think we've ever had the family of a sitting president being so closely involved | 我觉得我们从未有 一个现任总统的家庭 如此密切的参与 |
| 304 | in a financial instrument that's growing so fast | 在金融工具 增长如此之快 |
| 305 | and that clearly has a lot of regulatory questions raised. | 这显然引起了许多监管问题。 |
| 306 | The CFTC has been incredibly defensive. | 公平贸易委员会一直令人难以置信地持防御态度。 |
| 307 | So I think that's a dynamic that, to a certain extent, is facing some scrutiny. | 所以,我认为这是一个动态, 在某种程度上,它正面临一些检查。 |
| 308 | How often do you personally talk to Donald Trump Jr.? | 你和唐纳德·特朗普(英语:Donald Trump Jr.)的谈话次数有多频繁?. |
| 309 | Not very often. | 不常见. |
| 310 | What's one specific thing he's advised you on? | 他对你的建议是什么? |
| 311 | It was really always focused about going direct and talking to our customers and people directly. | 它总是专注于直接和我们的客户和人们交谈。 |
| 312 | We don't talk about regulatory or policy. | 我们不谈监管或政策. |
| 313 | It was always made clear from the start by both parties that there will not be any involvement on that front. | 双方从一开始就明确表明,在这方面不会有任何参与。 |
| 314 | Earlier this year, Donald Trump Jr. reportedly showed up at a closed-door gathering | 今年早些时候,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump Jr.)据说出现在一个闭门集会上. |
| 315 | of Republican attorneys general and told them to back off prediction markets. | 并让他们退出预测市场 |
| 316 | The controversy hasn't slowed down Cal-She's marketing machine. | 争议并没有减缓卡尔-谢的营销机器. |
| 317 | Chasing new users, they've aggressively gone after Gen Z with celebrity ads, | 追逐新用户 他们用名人广告攻击Gen Z |
| 318 | viral TikToks, and influencer deals. | 病毒TikToks 和有影响力的交易。 |
| 319 | My Christian Dior, next! | 我的克里斯蒂安・迪奥,下一个! |
| 320 | You will be the first millionaire in your family. | 你将成为你家里第一个百万富翁 |
| 321 | Oh my God, they're going over! | 哦,我的上帝,他们要过去! |
| 322 | No! | 没有! |
| 323 | Prediction market traders often focus on a category where they think they have an edge. | 预测性的市场交易商往往注重他们认为自己有优势的类别. |
| 324 | What are you trading on Cal-She now, mostly? | 你现在在用卡尔 -谢交换什么? |
| 325 | Just the weather. | 只是天气问题 |
| 326 | I usually just do high temperatures. | 我通常只是做高温。 |
| 327 | I had a theory last year where while it was cooling down, | 去年我有个理论,当它冷却时, |
| 328 | people were underestimating the temperature would be consistently. | 人们一直低估温度 |
| 329 | And for a few days in a row is actually easy to cash in on that. | 连续几天 很容易兑现 |
| 330 | Yet traders like Joseph, who win more often than they lose, are the minority. | 然而,像约瑟夫这样的商人,胜过败,是少数。 |
| 331 | Do you worry about young people getting hooked? | 你担心年轻人上瘾吗? |
| 332 | Irresponsible use is really worried for any of these types of products. | 任何这类产品的不负责任使用都非常令人担忧。 |
| 333 | The law today is 18 plus, and I follow the law. | 今法为十八加,我亦随法. |
| 334 | And so that question is also better addressed to policymakers. | 因此,这个问题也更好地针对决策者。 |
| 335 | They're like, if policymakers are supportive to move that to 21 plus, | 他们喜欢,如果决策者支持 移动到21+, |
| 336 | that is something that we would respect. | 这是我们会尊重的 |
| 337 | There are influencers all over social media saying they made easy money on Cal-She. | 社交媒体上到处都有影响者说,他们在Cal-She上赚了轻松的钱. |
| 338 | But when you look at the numbers, 75% of people lose money. | 但当你看数字时,75%的人会失去钱. |
| 339 | Do you feel an obligation, a moral obligation to be more transparent about that? | 你是否觉得有义务,道德义务 更透明吗? |
| 340 | I think we are very transparent that there are risks in every trading product. | 我认为,每个贸易产品都有风险,这是非常透明的。 |
| 341 | There are risks. | 有风险。 |
| 342 | I would say that the 75%, what's interesting to me, | 我会说75%, 有趣的是, |
| 343 | is that actually it's never quoted next to how many people lose money day trading. | 实际上它从来没有被引用 旁边有多少人失去了金钱交易日。 |
| 344 | Because day trading options get 95% of retail loses money. | 因为日间交易选择权 95%的零售量损失了钱 |
| 345 | What do you make of their argument? | 你对他们的论点有什么看法? |
| 346 | Well, yeah, it's common knowledge that day traders lose a lot of money. | 嗯,是的,众所周知,白天交易商损失了很多钱。 |
| 347 | And therefore, I was taught from an early age not to try to day trade. | 因此,我从小就学会了 不要试图进行交易。 |
| 348 | We're seeing some recent studies say people are more likely to allocate some of the money | 我们最近看到一些研究 说人们更有可能分配一些钱 |
| 349 | they would actually put to investing and put it in sports betting. | 他们会投入到体育赌注中 |
| 350 | So I think the most important thing is the money you put there, where is it coming from? | 所以,我认为最重要的是 你放在那里的钱, 它是从哪里来的? |
| 351 | Is it coming from money that's allocated for your future, money that's for investments, | 钱是用来给你未来的 钱是用来投资的 |
| 352 | money that potentially in the long term, if you put in different vehicles, | 如果你把不同的车辆放进 长期来说可能赚的钱 |
| 353 | can give you better returns? | 能给你更好的回报吗? |
| 354 | This year alone, users between 18 and 21, who would be too young to walk into a casino in most states, | 仅今年,18到21岁的用户 年龄太小 无法进入赌场 在大多数州, |
| 355 | traded $5 billion on Kalshi. | 在卡尔希交易了50亿美元。 |
| 356 | We are a financial exchange and we follow the same rules that everyone else does. | 我们是一个金融交易所,我们遵循与其他人相同的规则。 |
| 357 | But I think if those rules are to be changed, we'll follow the new rules. | 但我认为如果要改变那些规则,我们将遵循新的规则. |
| 358 | But for us, what we think is better is never trying to | 但对我们来说,我们认为更好的是永远不要试图 |
| 359 | stop something from happening because the people will just go offshore | 阻止一些事情发生 因为人们会去离岸 |
| 360 | or do it in another way that is unregulated and way worse. | 或以另一种不受管制和更糟的方式这样做。 |
| 361 | At what point do you stop pointing to a worse option and take responsibility? | 你什么时候停止指向更糟糕的选择并承担责任? |
| 362 | We're not just here saying like, okay, there's a worse option so we don't have to do anything. | 我们不只是在这里说,好吧, 有一个更糟糕的选择, 所以我们不需要做任何事情。 |
| 363 | I'm actually here saying, let's talk about regulation. | 我其实在这里说, 让我们谈谈监管。 |
| 364 | Let's figure out what are the right regulations and figure out the right safeguards. | 让我们找出正确的条例,找出正确的保障措施。 |
| 365 | But we are actually welcoming that conversation. | 但我们实际上欢迎这种对话。 |
| 366 | And when we talk to policymakers, our message is not, hey, there's nothing to see here. | 当我们与决策者交谈时, 我们的信息不是,嘿,这里没有什么可看到的。 |
| 367 | Our message is like, let's regulate it. | 我们的信息是,让我们调节它。 |
| 368 | Let's figure out what are the right guardrails and where are the gaps? | 让我们看看什么是合适的护栏 哪里有漏洞? |
| 369 | There's just this huge settlement with Meta, massive numbers, | 和Meta有个巨大的和解 数量庞大 |
| 370 | restrictions on their platforms now. | 现在限制他们的平台。 |
| 371 | Do you see any parallels there? | 你看到有相似之处吗? |
| 372 | There are parallels that any type of technology comes with risks, for sure. | 任何类型的技术都有风险,这是平行的。 |
| 373 | AI comes with risks. | AI带来风险。 |
| 374 | In our markets, and this is true for any type of financial markets. | 在我们的市场上,任何类型的金融市场都是如此。 |
| 375 | It's true for options. | 选择是真实的 |
| 376 | It's true for futures. | 对将来真如. |
| 377 | It's true for a stock market. | 对一个股票市场来说,这是真的. |
| 378 | It's true for prediction markets. | 对于预测市场来说,这是真的. |
| 379 | There will be a small percentage of customers when you enable them to speculate on different things | 如果你能让他们 推测出不同的事情 顾客的比例会很小 |
| 380 | that will be irresponsible users, like irresponsible trading. | 这将是不负责任的用户,如不负责任的交易。 |
| 381 | But critics say platforms like Kalshi should create more safeguards for their youngest users, | 但批评者说,像Kalshi这样的平台应该为其最年轻的用户创造更多的保障, |
| 382 | some who've learned to gamble before they've learned to save. | 有些人在学会拯救之前就学会了赌博 |
| 383 | It'll start off, you know, you'll make a few bucks here and there. | 它会开始,你知道, 你会赚一些钱在这里和那里。 |
| 384 | You'll think it's easy money. | 你会认为这是容易的钱。 |
| 385 | It just goes down from there. | 它只是从那里下来。 |
| 386 | How much have you lost? | 你输了多少? |
| 387 | Uh, like 5K. | 嗯,5K一样。 |
| 388 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 389 | Things are so expensive nowadays. | 现在事情太贵了 |
| 390 | The only chance they have is gambling and that's just not a good mindset. | 他们唯一的机会就是赌博 这可不是什么好主意 |
| 391 | And they made it so, like, accessible. | 他们让它,喜欢,无障碍。 |
| 392 | Even as concerns grow about prediction markets and gambling addiction, | 即使人们越来越担心预测市场和赌博成瘾, |
| 393 | Kalshi is doubling down on the category that arguably started it all, elections. | 卡尔希在选举这一类别上翻了一番 |
| 394 | Elections really are the holy grail of prediction markets, right? | 选举确实是预测市场的圣杯,对吧? |
| 395 | They are the one that proves to everyone what these markets are. | 它们向每个人证明了这些市场是什么。 |
| 396 | They prove the utility of these markets. | 它们证明了这些市场的效用。 |
| 397 | And they are also the one that provide the most value. | 它们也是提供最大价值的。 |
| 398 | With the 2026 midterms, Kalshi is making a play to be seen as a go-to source for election odds. | 随着2026年期中赛的进行,卡尔希正在制作一出戏,以被视为选手选手选手选角率的来源. |
| 399 | Critics say it's more likely to add confusion | 批评者说这更可能增加混乱 |
| 400 | and give bad actors a new tool to spread misinformation. | 并给坏角色传播错误信息的新工具。 |
| 401 | Okay, so this is the midterms hub. | 好吧,这是中期中枢。 |
| 402 | Oh yeah, so we just, we broke this down into three, a couple of games here. | 哦,是的,所以我们只是, 我们打破了这三, 几个游戏在这里。 |
| 403 | Like you'll see Senate, House, Governor, Balance of Power, | 就像你会看到参议院,众议院,州长, 权力平衡, |
| 404 | which is an amalgamation of all these combined. | 这是所有这些组合的组合。 |
| 405 | We love showing, like, how things change over time. | 我们喜欢展示,喜欢, 事情如何变化的时间。 |
| 406 | As more data comes through. | 随着更多的数据通过。 |
| 407 | Kalshi's midterms dashboard certainly looks official. | 卡尔希的中期仪表板看起来很正式 |
| 408 | But look closely. | 但仔细看看 |
| 409 | Those numbers aren't polling data. | 这些数字不是投票数据 |
| 410 | They're bets. | 他们是赌注。 |
| 411 | And with elections, the stakes of getting manipulated aren't just financial. | 而随着选举的进行,被操纵的利害关系不仅仅是金钱. |
| 412 | They go to the integrity of the vote itself. | 他们去的正直 投票本身。 |
| 413 | Polls do have a credibility problem, but are prediction markets really that much better? | 民意调查确实存在可信度问题, |
| 414 | When you put money on the table, things become more complicated. | 当你把钱放在桌上,事情就变得更加复杂了. |
| 415 | What if I have an incentive to push a certain candidate's odds higher than they certainly are? | 如果我有动力把某个候选人的胜率 提高到肯定的地步呢? |
| 416 | What we see is that in smaller races, state representative or mayoral elections, | 我们所看到的是,在较小的种族, 州代表或市长选举, |
| 417 | it can take as little as a few thousand or even a few hundred dollars | 它可以少到几千甚至几百美元 |
| 418 | to push a candidate's odds up or down. | 以提升或降低候选人的概率。 |
| 419 | In January, an anonymous polymarket trader spent $44,000 to push | 1月,一个匿名的多市场交易商花了44,000美元来推动 |
| 420 | a California gubernatorial candidate's odds to 96%, even though polls had him at less than 5%. | a 加利福尼亚州州长候选人的胜率达96%,尽管民调中他还不到5%。 |
| 421 | A recent study found that for $3,500, | 最近的一项研究发现,3 500美元, |
| 422 | you can move 97% of midterm-related prediction markets by five cents or more. | 可以移动97%的中期预测市场 5美分或更多。 |
| 423 | That's a remarkably cheap way to shape public perception, | 这是一个非常便宜的方式 塑造公众的认识, |
| 424 | especially if those odds are being displayed on national television, | 特别是如果这些机会在国家电视上显示, |
| 425 | visibility that Kalshi is currently paying for through partnerships with several media organizations. | Kalshi目前通过与几个媒体组织的伙伴关系来支付费用的能见度。 |
| 426 | Putting prediction market data next to polls on television, | 将预测市场数据放在电视民调旁边, |
| 427 | do you think this could confuse viewers? | 你觉得这会迷惑观众吗? |
| 428 | I think it definitely creates the question of like, is it clearly defined? | 我认为这无疑造成了一个问题,即它的定义清楚吗? |
| 429 | What are the polls saying? | 民调怎么说? |
| 430 | What are prediction markets saying? | 预测市场怎么说? |
| 431 | But having them right next to each other and comparing them, | 但让他们相邻 比较一下 |
| 432 | I think it definitely can create a lot of issues. | 我认为这肯定会造成许多问题。 |
| 433 | Do you feel like the stakes are high with this election? | 你觉得这次选举有风险吗? |
| 434 | I think it's always, you know, around any big temple moment, | 我认为它总是,你知道, 在任何大的庙会时刻, |
| 435 | you're always going to have more, I mean, energy and attention and all that, | 你总是会有更多的, 我的意思是,精力和注意力 这一切, |
| 436 | which is good. | 这是很好的。 |
| 437 | That's what we want. | 这是我们想要的。 |
| 438 | The way I would phrase it is like the stakes are high | 我这样说就像赌注很高 |
| 439 | and the onus on us to educate people about how to use them. | 我们有责任教育人们如何使用它们。 |
| 440 | Whoever wins or loses in the midterms, | 无论中途胜负 |
| 441 | or what the results do to public confidence in the vote, | 或结果对公众投票的信心有何影响, |
| 442 | Kalshi will take its cut. | 卡尔希会收下他的那份 |
| 443 | Ironically, the fickle world of political fortunes could be an existential threat. | 具有讽刺意味的是,政治财富的虚幻世界可能是一种生存威胁。 |
| 444 | What happens to Kalshi when Trump leaves office, | 当特朗普离开办公室时 卡尔希会怎么样? |
| 445 | when there's a new administration and perhaps the regulatory pendulum swings back? | 当有一个新的政府,也许 监管的倒转回? |
| 446 | We have supporters and detractors from both sides of the aisle. | 我们有来自过道两侧的支持者和诋毁者. |
| 447 | Some people that see it and some people that don't see it or don't see it yet. | 有些人看见它,有些人还没有看到它。 |
| 448 | To me, it's really the focus is like, OK, we have tens of millions of customers now. | 对我来说,这真的是焦点 就像,OK,我们有数千万客户了。 |
| 449 | This is a fast-growing industry outside of AI. | 这是AI以外的快速发展产业. |
| 450 | It's an industry that's here to stay. | 业如来住. |
| 451 | It's not about whether prediction market is going to be here or not. | 这不是预测市场是否在这里。 |
| 452 | We're way past that point. | 我们已经过去了 |
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