BBC名嘴专访李开复，解构中美 AI 大模型竞赛的真实下半场
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | I think our whole society needs to rethink how much we depend on jobs. | 我认为我们全社会都需要重新思考我们有多依赖工作. |
| 0:05 | The job displacement is coming. | 工作转移即将到来。 |
| 0:07 | If you ask someone, tell me about yourself, | 如果你问一个人, 告诉我关于你自己, |
| 0:09 | they pretty much tell you about their job. | 他们几乎告诉你 他们的工作。 |
| 0:11 | It's extremely dangerous as we look at jobs being turned upside down by AI. | 当我们看着工作被AI颠倒时,这是极其危险的. |
| 0:17 | We really need to reinstill in people that job isn't everything. | 我们真的需要重新为人们服务 工作不是一切 |
| 0:21 | There's more to it than that in life. | 于众生中有余. |
| 0:24 | Kaifu Li, who's played a central role in the tech boom in the US and China for 40 years. | 李启福,40年来在美中科技繁荣中发挥了核心作用. |
| 0:32 | In the long run, do you think that the Chinese companies will be the ones which are more likely | 从长远来看,你是否认为中国公司更可能 |
| 0:38 | to make a profit? | 赚钱? |
展开字幕全文（644 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I think our whole society needs to rethink how much we depend on jobs. | 我认为我们全社会都需要重新思考我们有多依赖工作. |
| 2 | The job displacement is coming. | 工作转移即将到来。 |
| 3 | If you ask someone, tell me about yourself, | 如果你问一个人, 告诉我关于你自己, |
| 4 | they pretty much tell you about their job. | 他们几乎告诉你 他们的工作。 |
| 5 | It's extremely dangerous as we look at jobs being turned upside down by AI. | 当我们看着工作被AI颠倒时,这是极其危险的. |
| 6 | We really need to reinstill in people that job isn't everything. | 我们真的需要重新为人们服务 工作不是一切 |
| 7 | There's more to it than that in life. | 于众生中有余. |
| 8 | Kaifu Li, who's played a central role in the tech boom in the US and China for 40 years. | 李启福,40年来在美中科技繁荣中发挥了核心作用. |
| 9 | In the long run, do you think that the Chinese companies will be the ones which are more likely | 从长远来看,你是否认为中国公司更可能 |
| 10 | to make a profit? | 赚钱? |
| 11 | No, I do not. | 不,我没有。 |
| 12 | Anthropic和OpenAI已经建造了iPhone. | |
| 13 | 中国公司更像Android. | |
| 14 | iPhone makes by far the most money, but Android has the larger market share. | iPhone是迄今为止最赚钱的,但Android拥有更大的市场份额. |
| 15 | From Bloomberg Weekend, this is the Michelle Vissane show. | 从彭博周末,这是米歇尔・维森节目。 |
| 16 | From the very early days of this podcast on making sense of the world, | 从这个播客的早期开始... ... ...... |
| 17 | AI has often been part of the conversation. | 大赦国际经常参与对话。 |
| 18 | We have wanted to understand its ever expanding impact. | 我们一直希望了解其不断扩大的影响。 |
| 19 | And so I have talked to pioneers and evangelists like Mustafa Suleiman, | 所以我跟像穆斯塔法·苏莱曼这样的 先锋和福音主义者谈过了 |
| 20 | as well as realists and critics like Meredith Whitaker and Karen Howe. | 以及现实主义者和批评家如梅瑞迪丝·惠特克和凯伦·豪. |
| 21 | It's a field dominated by immense American companies, the giants behind ChatGPT, | 这是一个由巨大的美国公司, 巨头ChatGPT, |
| 22 | Claude, Gemini and others. | 克劳德,双子座等人. |
| 23 | But this week, we really wanted to dig into what's coming out of China. | 但是这个星期,我们真的想 挖掘出中国正在出现的东西。 |
| 24 | The AI embedded products, devices and apps that are already serving a huge population | AI嵌入式产品、装置和应用程序已经为大量人口服务 |
| 25 | that are popular in many other countries and potentially end up winning the global AI race. | 并可能最终赢得全球AI比赛。 |
| 26 | These advances are especially notable because the United States has for some years been | 这些进展尤其显著,因为美国多年来一直保持着 |
| 27 | restricting Chinese access to the most advanced chips, | 限制中国人获取最先进的芯片 |
| 28 | the components that essentially make AI possible. | 基本上使AI成为可能的组成部分。 |
| 29 | Who can really explain this landscape, we thought? | 我们想谁能真正解释这个景观? |
| 30 | And the person we turn to is himself an AI pioneer. | 而我们转向的人 他自己是一个AI先驱。 |
| 31 | Kai-Fu Lee was born in Taiwan, but at the age of 11, | 李启富出生于台湾,但11岁时, |
| 32 | his parents sent him to live in the United States. | 他的父母把他送到美国居住。 |
| 33 | He learned English at school in Tennessee. | 他在田纳西州学校学习英语. |
| 34 | And in the 1980s, he was doing his PhD on how computers could recognize speech. | 在20世纪80年代,他正在研究 计算机如何识别语音。 |
| 35 | He went to work for Apple, then Microsoft, then Google, | 他为苹果公司工作 然后是微软 然后是谷歌 |
| 36 | which poached him with a multi-million dollar pay deal that showed his value to them back in 2005. | 2005年他以数百万美元的工资交易 偷袭了他 |
| 37 | He was at the forefront of American tech going into China. | 他是美国科技进入中国的前锋 |
| 38 | And Beijing is where he lives today. | 而北京是他今天住的地方. |
| 39 | He's invested in dozens of tech startups, | 他投资了几十个科技创业公司 |
| 40 | which means there are a number of Chinese billionaires who owe their fortunes to him. | 也就是说,有不少中国亿万富翁欠他一笔财富. |
| 41 | And today he has his own AI firm, Zero One Dot AI. | 今天他有自己的AI事务所,零点AI。 |
| 42 | So Kai-Fu Lee has seen a lot. | 于是开福李见之甚多. |
| 43 | And as a tech CEO, he remains part of a landscape which will further change our lives. | 作为一名技术首席执行官,他仍然是将进一步改变我们生活的景观的一部分。 |
| 44 | I think he is able to connect the transformative power of technology | 我觉得他能把科技的变革力量联系起来 |
| 45 | to our lives in a pretty unique way. | 以一个非常独特的方式来对待我们的生活。 |
| 46 | He has a new book coming out called AI Native, the Mandate to Transform Your Company. | 他有一本新书叫AI Industrial "改变你公司的任务" |
| 47 | But really, he thinks and talks about our changing world in the broadest sense. | 但是,真的,他思考和谈论 我们不断变化的世界 最广义。 |
| 48 | Here's how our conversation began. | 我们的对话是这样开始的 |
| 49 | Hello, Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, can you hear me? | 你好,李开福博士,你能听到我吗? |
| 50 | Yes, hi, I'm Michelle, yes. | 你好,我是米歇尔,是的。 |
| 51 | Thank you very much for taking the time. | 谢谢你抽空来 |
| 52 | Have we kept you later than usual in your office in Beijing to talk to us? | 我们是不是比平常晚把你留在你在北京的办公室 跟我们谈谈? |
| 53 | No, no, you know, we're 996, right? | 不,不,你知道,我们996,对不对? |
| 54 | 996? | 996号? |
| 55 | 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. | 上午9时至下午9时,每周六天。 |
| 56 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 57 | Okay, you still work like that? | 好吧,你还这样工作? |
| 58 | Actually, I do not, but that's the way people talk about working in China. | 实际上,我没有, 但这就是人们谈论 在中国工作的方式。 |
| 59 | Okay, I see. | 好吧,我明白了,我看见了。 |
| 60 | Let me set the scene broadly for you about why we wanted to turn to you | 让我为你们大开眼界 说明我们为什么找你 |
| 61 | and to hear your perspective right now. | 现在听听你的看法 |
| 62 | It's because there are so many headlines and news of developments in AI in the U.S. and China. | 这是因为美国和中国AI的发展有这么多的头条新闻和新闻. |
| 63 | You know both these countries. | 你知道这两个国家。 |
| 64 | You have seen, in fact, the entire trajectory of the development of this technology over 40 years. | 事实上,你们已经看到了40年来这种技术发展的整个轨迹。 |
| 65 | So let me just start by asking you this. | 让我先问你这个 |
| 66 | What do you think today is still underappreciated about the power of AI? | 你觉得今天对AI的力量还认识不足吗? |
| 67 | I think there are two things. | 我认为有两件事。 |
| 68 | One is the speed of improvement and the reduction of costs. | 一是提高速度,降低成本. |
| 69 | Most people do not realize that AI is solving tasks 10 times longer than it was one year ago. | 大多数人没有意识到AI解决的任务比一年前长10倍. |
| 70 | So if AI solved a four-minute task a year ago, now it can solve a 40-minute task. | 所以如果AI一年前解决了4分钟的任务,那么现在就可以解决40分钟的任务. |
| 71 | Minute measured by how many minutes a human would need to solve it. | 以人类需要多少分钟来解决它来衡量分钟。 |
| 72 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 73 | Okay, so it's getting better and better at longer, more complex tasks. | 好吧,所以它越来越好 在更长,更复杂的任务。 |
| 74 | Right, right. | 对,对。 |
| 75 | And if you want to look at it with a skeptical view, | 如果你想用怀疑的观点来看待它, |
| 76 | it is displacing 10 times more human work potentially. | 它可能取代10倍于人类的工作。 |
| 77 | So the acceleration of the much faster intelligence and improvement and the much lower costs | 因此,加速 更快的智能和改进 和低得多的成本 |
| 78 | is going to drive adoption like no technology ever has before. | 将推动收养 前所未有的技术。 |
| 79 | So much more than the steam engine, so much more than the internet, so much more than Moore's law. | 比蒸汽机还要多,比互联网还要多,比摩尔定律还要多. |
| 80 | The second is a consequence of AI improving that fast means that the fabric of our companies, | 第二个原因是AI改进了 快速意味着我们公司的结构, |
| 81 | enterprises, society, government will need to consider the drastic changes that will bring about. | 企业、社会、政府需要考虑带来的巨大变化。 |
| 82 | And in my view, the CEO is currently one of the least aware of how important and | 在我看来,首席执行官目前最不了解 |
| 83 | transformative this AI technology is because the companies affects everything, right? | 改造这种人工智能技术是因为公司影响一切,对吧? |
| 84 | We all have jobs and the jobs are going to change. | 我们都有工作,工作将会改变。 |
| 85 | In five years, the typical successful company's organizational chart will be | 五年后,典型的成功的公司组织图将是: |
| 86 | quite different from today. | 跟今天不一样 |
| 87 | The people who occupy the most important places, | 占据最重要位置的人们, |
| 88 | their qualifications will look quite different than today because AI workers are becoming better | 他们的资历看起来和今天大不相同 因为人工智能工人越来越好 |
| 89 | and cheaper, faster at a pace that people cannot fathom. | 更便宜 更快 以人们无法理解的速度 |
| 90 | And in order to make that work effectively in an organization, | 为了让这个组织有效运作, |
| 91 | it cannot be retrofitted into an organization with a hierarchy intended to manage people. | 它不能被改造成一个以管理人民为目的的分级组织。 |
| 92 | AI workers don't need hierarchies. | AI工人不需要等级. |
| 93 | All the information is connected. | 所有信息都连通了 |
| 94 | What they need is people who will know how to design the right problem to solve, | 他们需要的是那些知道如何设计正确问题的人 |
| 95 | organize AI to solve it, and also, very importantly, willing to be accountable | 组织大赦国际解决这个问题,而且非常重要的是,愿意承担责任 |
| 96 | if anything goes wrong because AI can't be accountable. | 如果有什么不对 因为AI不能负责。 |
| 97 | So what are the qualifications then that would put people in these positions? | 那么将人们置于这些位置的资格是什么? |
| 98 | What are you advocating in terms of what people study | 你在鼓吹什么 人研究 |
| 99 | in order to make the most of this revolution? | 为了充分利用这场革命? |
| 100 | I suggest they study one thing, which is how to solve hard problems | 我建议他们研究一件事 就是如何解决难题 |
| 101 | and come up with new problems, work with AI to solve them, and to command armies of AI | 并提出新问题,与AI合作解决这些问题,并指挥AI的军队 |
| 102 | to massively parallel solve complex problems. | 解决复杂的问题 |
| 103 | But this is not coding. | 但这不是编码。 |
| 104 | This does not require any engineering background. | 这不需要任何工程背景。 |
| 105 | A humanities student can easily do this. | 人文学科学生可以轻松地做到这一点. |
| 106 | This does require willingness to work on complex problems, | 这确实需要就复杂问题开展工作的意愿, |
| 107 | ability to fuse multiple sources of information. | 使多种信息来源相互连接的能力。 |
| 108 | So these are kind of the hard requirements. | 所以这些是困难的要求。 |
| 109 | They can be learned, even for an older, non-tech background person. | 他们可以学习,即使是对一个年长,非技术背景的人来说。 |
| 110 | Good to know. | 很高兴知道。 |
| 111 | What's more important is what kind of a person when is. | 更重要的是,一个人在什么时候是什么样的人。 |
| 112 | And if that doesn't match, then no chance. | 如果这不匹配 那就没有机会了 |
| 113 | And this position has been called by Steve Jobs and Jack Dorsey | 史蒂夫·乔布斯和杰克·多西 都叫这个职位 |
| 114 | as the DRI, Directly Responsible Individual. | 作为DRI,直接负责的个人。 |
| 115 | And the soft traits are more important than the hard traits. | 而软的特质比硬的特质更重要. |
| 116 | The soft traits include singular responsibility. | 软性特征包括单一责任。 |
| 117 | That means anything goes wrong, the buck stops here. | 那意味着出事了 钱就停在这里 |
| 118 | Second is a willingness to do whatever it takes to accomplish something | 二是愿意不惜一切代价完成某事 |
| 119 | with the tenacity and ownership of a project. | 坚韧不拔 拥有一个项目。 |
| 120 | And the third is ability to work with other people and processes. | 第三是与其他人和进程合作的能力。 |
| 121 | Can I put a real world example to you? | 我能给你举个真正的世界榜样吗? |
| 122 | Our team right here, we are a small team who work together to produce this podcast. | 我们的团队在这里,我们是一个小团队 合作制作这个播客。 |
| 123 | An executive producer, a handful of other producers, | 一个执行制片人 少数其他制片人 |
| 124 | video editors working on different aspects of this. | 视频编辑就这项工作的不同方面开展工作。 |
| 125 | I would hate to think of a future where it's me and essentially a version of an AI team. | 我不愿想到未来,那就是我 基本上是一个AI团队的版本。 |
| 126 | That I might be the directory responsible individual | 说不定我就是责任人 |
| 127 | and everyone else around me is an AI colleague. | 我身边的每个人都是AI的同事 |
| 128 | I hope that's not the future that you're trying to prepare me for. | 我希望那不是你想给我准备的未来 |
| 129 | I am not saying the group is one person and all AI. | 我不是说这个团体是一个人和所有AI。 |
| 130 | It's as many people as is needed to ensure that the people connection part is worked out. | 需要多少人来保证人们的连接部分被解决. |
| 131 | I don't know enough about your business, so I'm using my business as an example. | 我对你的生意了解不够 所以我用我的生意作为例子 |
| 132 | So maybe a unit of 20 people and 100 AI to begin with. | 因此,也许一个单位 20人和100AI开始。 |
| 133 | Then over time, if the business is flat, then probably fewer people and more AI. | 然后随着时间推移,如果生意平坦,那么可能更少的人和更多的AI. |
| 134 | If the business is growing, there may be more people and more AI. | 如果生意在增长,可能会有更多的人和更多的AI. |
| 135 | So I'm not saying there will be no people left. | 所以,我不是说 不会有人了。 |
| 136 | There are some tasks. | 有一些任务。 |
| 137 | You mentioned video editing. | 你提到视频编辑。 |
| 138 | So if I want to set up a one person company that automatically edits videos. | 所以,如果我想建立一个个人公司, 自动编辑视频。 |
| 139 | I actually know a company like this. | 其实我认识这样的公司 |
| 140 | It's a one person company. | 这是一个人的公司。 |
| 141 | They make videos for handymen and gardeners in the US. | 他们在美国为杂工和园丁制作视频. |
| 142 | Basically, the handymen and gardeners submit their pictures and videos. | 基本上,工匠和园丁提交他们的图片和视频. |
| 143 | AI chops them up, puts music and background, and then promotes them on TikTok, Instagram. | AI把它们切开,放入音乐和背景,然后在Instagram的TikTok上宣传. |
| 144 | Gets them referrals of deals. | 让他们转诊交易。 |
| 145 | And it also promotes their own service to the communities of handymen and gardeners. | 它还促进他们自己为杂工和园丁服务。 |
| 146 | So this would have been a team of probably 20 people, but now it's one person. | 所以这个团队大概有20个人, 但现在只有一个人。 |
| 147 | The implications of that are obvious, aren't they? | 后果很明显,不是吗? |
| 148 | And I don't just mean in this field, in so many other fields. | 我不只是指这个领域, 在许多其他领域。 |
| 149 | Look at the protests that have just happened in India where so many young people, | 看看刚刚在印度发生的抗议活动, |
| 150 | their frustrations, they were partly about the exam process, | 他们的挫折感, 他们部分是关于考试过程, |
| 151 | but there were also more general frustrations at the kind of entry level jobs they would have had | 但他们在起职职位方面 也普遍感到沮丧 |
| 152 | in the past in places like call centers and others aren't there anymore. | 过去在呼叫中心之类的地方 其他人已经不在了 |
| 153 | So there are very serious social implications, unless you're saying | 所以,有非常严重的 社会影响,除非你说 |
| 154 | there will be enough jobs just in other fields for all of those people. | 只要在其他领域为所有人提供足够的工作。 |
| 155 | Well, I think there will be jobs in certain new industries, new segments created. | 我想某些新行业会有工作 创造新的部门 |
| 156 | And I think our whole society needs to rethink how much we depend on jobs. | 我认为我们整个社会需要重新思考 我们有多依赖工作。 |
| 157 | Because AI will generate a lot of wealth, and I think we can, as countries that can afford it, | 因为AI会创造很多财富 我想我们可以作为有能力的国家 |
| 158 | to find ways of redistribution so people can work fewer hours | 寻找再分配的方法 这样人们就可以少工作时间 |
| 159 | and be paid for activities that were not economically important. | 并且为经济上不重要的活动支付报酬。 |
| 160 | But I think this is all very hard to communicate to someone who couldn't | 但我觉得这很难跟无法沟通的人沟通 |
| 161 | find a job or lost his or her job. | 找到工作或失业。 |
| 162 | So this has been something since my first AI book in 2018 I've talked about. | 因此,这是我2018年第一本AI书以来我所谈论的. |
| 163 | The job displacement is coming. | 工作转移即将到来。 |
| 164 | Let's start the training, the preparation. | 开始训练,准备 |
| 165 | And now I think it's just recently, rapidly risen to very high levels. | 现在我想只是最近, 迅速上升到很高的水平。 |
| 166 | Another thing on my mind that I'd love to get your insight on | 我心里还有件事想告诉你 |
| 167 | is what is going on at American tech and particularly AI companies and Chinese ones. | 美国技术公司,特别是AI公司和中国公司的情况。 |
| 168 | And you're uniquely placed to tell us about both those worlds, | 你是唯一能告诉我们这两个世界的人 |
| 169 | because you've moved within them. | 因为你已经搬进他们里面了 |
| 170 | You worked for Apple, Microsoft, and Google. | 你在苹果、微软和谷歌工作过 |
| 171 | And for Microsoft and Google, you were at the forefront of their foundations in China. | 而对于微软和Google来说,你站在了他们在中国的基金会的最前沿. |
| 172 | 让我们拿像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的公司。 | |
| 173 | How much of a challenge do Chinese versions like DeepSeek and Moonshot represent to them? | 像DeepSeek和Moonshot这样的中文版本对他们来说代表了多少挑战? |
| 174 | I think they represent a significant challenge, | 我认为这是一个重大的挑战, |
| 175 | especially if they continue to keep up at the recent levels. | 特别是如果他们继续跟上最近的水平。 |
| 176 | Because OpenAI and Anthropic always stay number one or two by most metrics in the AI quality. | 因为OpenAI和Anthropic总是在AI质量中以大多数的度量标准保持第一或第二位. |
| 177 | But their models are closed and not open source. | 但他们的模型是封闭的而不是开源的. |
| 178 | The Chinese models have been largely open source. | 中国模式基本开源. |
| 179 | The models trailing them trail anywhere between three and 15 months. | 模型追踪到它们3到15个月 |
| 180 | Right now, it's probably six months behind. | 现在,它可能 后六个月。 |
| 181 | Because everyone's pushing on new models. | 因为每个人都在推新的模型。 |
| 182 | 如果你是OpenAI或Anthropic的话 | |
| 183 | you would have a product you sell for a very high price | 你会有一个产品 你以非常高的价格出售 |
| 184 | that is deeply discounted with an open source version | 用开源版本深为折扣 |
| 185 | that is equivalent to your best model six months ago. | 这相当于你半年前最好的模特儿 |
| 186 | So it's like, would you pay $50,000 for a Tesla of this year? | 所以这就像,你会支付5万美元 今年的特斯拉? |
| 187 | Or a $15,000 Tesla that's six months old? | 或者一个15000美元的特斯拉 六个月大? |
| 188 | Obviously, the second is a strong value proposition. | 显然,第二项是强有力的价值主张。 |
| 189 | So in the long run, do you think that the Chinese companies | 所以,从长远来看,你是否认为中国的公司 |
| 190 | will be the ones which are more likely to make a profit? | 更可能赚钱的人呢? |
| 191 | No, no, I do not. | 不,不,我没有。 |
| 192 | I think the American companies will make more money. | 我想美国公司会赚更多的钱 |
| 193 | 因此Anthropic和OpenAI已经建造了iPhone. | |
| 194 | The Chinese companies are more like the way Google felt. | 中国公司更像谷歌的感受. |
| 195 | It's like, okay, you got the best product, | 这就像,好吧, 你有最好的产品, |
| 196 | we'll build something that's almost as good and sell it very cheaply. | 我们会造出几乎一样好的东西 卖得非常便宜 |
| 197 | In this case, very, very low cost, sometimes near zero. | 在这种情况下,成本非常非常低,有时接近零. |
| 198 | And just win a larger share. | 只要赢得更大的份额。 |
| 199 | And the rest may come later or may not. | 其余的可能会晚点来,也可能不来. |
| 200 | But for now, let's get market share. | 但是,现在,让我们得到市场份额。 |
| 201 | So like Android, the open source models will have more share, | 所以像Android一样 开源模型会有更多的份额 |
| 202 | more footprint, more usage. | 更多的脚印,更多的使用。 |
| 203 | But people will pay very little. | 但人们的薪水很少。 |
| 204 | In some cases, they just copy the model | 在某些情况下,他们只是复制模型 |
| 205 | and they pay for the servers on which it's run. | 他们支付它运行的服务器。 |
| 206 | But they don't actually pay the Chinese companies anything. | 但他们实际上并没有支付中国公司的任何费用. |
| 207 | And that's being sacrificed to gain share. | 而这是牺牲来获得股份。 |
| 208 | Whereas the Anthropic and OpenAI, | 而雅典人和开放AI, |
| 209 | they have the American enterprise system | 他们有美国企业系统 |
| 210 | selling enterprise software products that are very highly priced. | 销售价格极高的企业软件产品. |
| 211 | And large companies are getting good value. | 大公司正在获得良好的价值。 |
| 212 | So they pay a lot of money for the software. | 所以他们为软件付了很多钱。 |
| 213 | So iPhone makes by far the most money, | 所以iPhone赚的钱最多 |
| 214 | but Android has the larger market share. | 但Android拥有更大的市场份额。 |
| 215 | That is a really useful analogy, I think. | 我认为,这是一个非常有益的类比。 |
| 216 | And obviously, I'm thinking about all those countries in the world | 很明显,我在想世界上所有的国家 |
| 217 | where iPhones are unaffordable and people are using Android phones. | 在那里,iPhone是买不起的,人们正在使用Android手机. |
| 218 | Do you think then that the DeepSeek and the Moonshot models | 你觉得深猎人和月球拍摄模型 |
| 219 | like Kimi, for example, which Moonshot recently brought out, | 比如木乃伊,月光拍摄最近推出的 |
| 220 | in most of the world, in developing countries, | 在世界大多数发展中国家, |
| 221 | these will be AI to people? | 这些是人工智能吗? |
| 222 | That China will win that global race, if you like? | 如果你愿意的话,中国会赢得这场全球大赛? |
| 223 | I think that's a likely outcome. | 我想这是可能的结果。 |
| 224 | It presumes a few things. | 它假设一些事情。 |
| 225 | One is that Chinese companies continue the trail not too far. | 一是中国企业继续走不远的路. |
| 226 | It's possible because of the talent depth in the Silicon Valley companies | 可能是因为硅谷公司的人才深度 |
| 227 | that some company comes out with something | 某个公司 出来的东西 |
| 228 | that takes much longer to match, let's say two years, three years, | 这需要更长的时间来匹配, 让我们说两年,三年, |
| 229 | in which case that may not hold. | 在这种情况下,可能无法维持。 |
| 230 | The second really is who's going to build the apps | 第二,谁来制造应用程序? |
| 231 | for the people in these developing countries? | 为这些发展中国家的人民服务? |
| 232 | So there's not a lot of money to be made in these countries | 所以这些国家赚的钱不多 |
| 233 | and the Chinese model companies already don't make much money on what they sell. | 而中国的模范公司 已经赚不到多少钱了 |
| 234 | So who's going to build that nice interface | 那么谁来搭建这个漂亮的接口 |
| 235 | that OpenAI and other companies have done | OpenAI公司和其他公司所做的 |
| 236 | and cater to the languages for all of these developing countries? | 并且满足所有这些发展中国家的语言需求? |
| 237 | So we'll have to see how that plays out. | 所以我们得看看情况如何 |
| 238 | Right now, there's not enough carrier for the Chinese products | 现在,中国产品没有足够的载体 |
| 239 | to conquer the consumers of developing countries. | 征服发展中国家的消费者。 |
| 240 | How has Chinese advance in AI been possible to this extent, | 中国在AI中的进步是怎样做到的, |
| 241 | given that the US, for several years now, | 鉴于美国 几年来 |
| 242 | from the time of President Biden, | 从拜登总统时代起, |
| 243 | has restricted access to the most powerful semiconductors? | 有没有限制进入最强大的半导体? |
| 244 | I think that set of expert control | 我认为这一套专家控制 |
| 245 | undervalued the Chinese companies and their engineers' tenacity | 低估了中国公司及其工程师的顽强性 |
| 246 | and willingness to do whatever it takes to get things to work, | 并愿意不惜一切代价 让事情的工作, |
| 247 | despite a lack of resources. | 尽管缺乏资源。 |
| 248 | And so DeepSeek probably had one to three percent | 所以DeepSeek大概有百分之一到三 |
| 249 | of the GPU power of the top American rivals, | 美国顶尖对手的GPU力量 |
| 250 | and they were able to produce almost comparable results. | 它们能够产生几乎相当的结果。 |
| 251 | And that's through the kind of dirty work. | 而这已经通过那种肮脏的工作。 |
| 252 | If people can imagine the dirty work, right? | 如果人们可以想象 肮脏的工作,对不对? |
| 253 | The dirty work it takes to fix your car, | 修理你的车需要的肮脏工作 |
| 254 | polish your car and things like that. | 擦擦你的车和类似的东西。 |
| 255 | So the Chinese people basically view it as a challenge | 所以中国人民基本上认为这是一个挑战 |
| 256 | and they'll work hard on things that are not glorious, | 他们会为那些不光彩的事努力工作 |
| 257 | not interesting, but gets the job done. | 不好玩,但要完成任务 |
| 258 | So it's maybe ten times more engineering work | 所以,它也许十倍的工程工作 |
| 259 | to deliver that exceptional results. | 以取得非凡的结果。 |
| 260 | So I think that was an underestimation. | 所以我认为这是低估。 |
| 261 | And the other really is that I think the speed | 另一个是我觉得速度 |
| 262 | at which the Chinese companies learn the technology | 中国公司在其中学习技术 |
| 263 | also went through a very fast accelerating pace. | 也经历了非常快的速度。 |
| 264 | 我想暂时, CHAT GPT出来, | |
| 265 | I would argue the US was three to four years ahead of China. | 我认为美国比中国早三到四年 |
| 266 | And I think today we're talking six months. | 我认为今天我们谈的是六个月。 |
| 267 | So the speed at which the gap narrowed in technology | 因此,缩小技术差距的速度 |
| 268 | and the degree to which hardworking engineering | 以及勤奋工程的程度 |
| 269 | overcame the hardware deficiency, | 克服了硬件的不足, |
| 270 | I think those were surprises to the policymakers. | 我认为这对决策者来说是惊喜。 |
| 271 | LESLIE KENDRICK So it's an underestimation | 莱丝丽·肯迪克 所以这是低估 |
| 272 | of human ingenuity and capacity for hard work, I guess. | 人类的聪明才智 和努力工作的能力,我想。 |
| 273 | I'm also curious about the fact that the Chinese models | 我也好奇的是中国模特儿 |
| 274 | tend to be open source and that other companies | 往往是开源,其他公司 |
| 275 | can take them, develop them, modify them, | 可以带走它们,开发它们,修改它们, |
| 276 | do their own products because that does allow | 做他们自己的产品 因为这样做是允许的 |
| 277 | competitors to come in and do a better version of your product. | 竞争对手来做一个更好的产品版本。 |
| 278 | So why have the Chinese companies gone down that open source route | 那为什么中国公司会走开源线 |
| 279 | 而不是让他们像OpenII,Anthropic那样封闭源头, | |
| 280 | who obviously don't want to give away the tech | 谁显然不想放弃技术 |
| 281 | that they've spent money developing? | 他们花的钱开发? |
| 282 | HUANG ZHAO I think it's because they don't think | 汉昭,我想是因为他们不认为 |
| 283 | they're more likely to win that. | 他们更有可能赢得这个。 |
| 284 | I mean, every company makes a choice | 我的意思是,每个公司都会做出选择 |
| 285 | that's more likely to have a successful outcome. | 更可能成功的结果。 |
| 286 | So the Chinese companies are kind of like a study group. | 因此,中国的公司 有点像一个研究小组。 |
| 287 | So if the Silicon Valley companies are like a genius | 所以,如果硅谷公司 像一个天才 |
| 288 | who feels destined to win Nobel Prize one day, | 他们觉得有一天会赢得诺贝尔奖 |
| 289 | the Chinese companies, each one is a very good student, | 中国公司,每个都是个好学生, |
| 290 | but not so good they feel they're destined for Nobel Prize. | 但他们觉得自己注定要获得诺贝尔奖 |
| 291 | So they better figure out some way not to be | 所以他们最好想个办法 |
| 292 | kept way behind by the genius kids. | 被那些天才的孩子远远落后 |
| 293 | So they've decided to form a study group. | 于是他们决定组成一个研究小组. |
| 294 | They don't physically really sit down and study together, | 他们真的不坐下来一起学习 |
| 295 | but because they write papers, they open models, | 但因为他们写论文, 他们打开模型, |
| 296 | and people move from company to company. | 人们从公司搬到公司。 |
| 297 | So I would say the Chinese companies | 所以我说中国公司 |
| 298 | have moved somewhat in tandem. | 已经有所进展。 |
| 299 | They're quite aware of each other's innovations. | 他们相当了解彼此的创新. |
| 300 | 你会看到DeepSeek参考Kimi,反之亦然。 | |
| 301 | So while the American companies have stopped publishing, | 虽然美国公司已经停止出版 |
| 302 | the Chinese companies continue to publish. | 中国公司继续出版。 |
| 303 | So the study group is conducted in a fishbowl | 所以研究组是在鱼缸里进行的 |
| 304 | for the world to see. | 让世界看到 |
| 305 | It's interesting. | 这很有趣。 |
| 306 | I'm wondering if there is therefore a cultural basis | 我想知道是否有文化基础 |
| 307 | and something that partly comes from maybe the education systems | 以及部分来自教育系统的东西 |
| 308 | that leads to these two approaches. | 这导致了这两种方法。 |
| 309 | And of course, you moved from the Taiwanese school system | 当然,你从台湾的学校系统搬走了 |
| 310 | to the American school system at the age of 11. | 11岁进入美国学校系统 |
| 311 | Because I think your brother told your parents | 因为我想你哥哥告诉你的父母 |
| 312 | it would be better for you. | 这样对你更好 |
| 313 | Yeah, yeah, that's right. | 没错,没错 |
| 314 | Exactly right. | 没错 |
| 315 | Because at the time, the American system | 因为当时美国的制度 |
| 316 | certainly is the best education system | 绝对是最好的教育系统 |
| 317 | for middle school in the world. | 为世界的中学。 |
| 318 | And I was lucky to have had the chance to study in the US. | 我有幸有机会在美国学习。 |
| 319 | What was it like coming at the age of 11? | 十一岁来时如何. |
| 320 | Because it wasn't like you were emigrating with your parents. | 因为不是你跟你父母一起移民的 |
| 321 | Your mother stayed with you for a bit, | 你妈妈跟你住过一段时间 |
| 322 | but then she went back to Taiwan. | 但后来她回到了台湾。 |
| 323 | Right. | 对 |
| 324 | I stayed with my brother and sister-in-law. | 与兄嫂同住. |
| 325 | And they were scientists in a US national laboratory. | 他们是美国国家实验室的科学家 |
| 326 | And it was an eye-opening experience. | 这是一种开眼体验。 |
| 327 | I think that Asian schools tend to train everybody | 我觉得亚洲的学校 往往培养每个人 |
| 328 | in a good student direction. | 在良好的学生方向。 |
| 329 | And then the US schools let people | 然后美国学校让别人 |
| 330 | be what they independently want to be or should be. | 成为他们想要或应该成为的。 |
| 331 | That's probably the primary difference. | 这可能是主要区别。 |
| 332 | So if you had stayed in Taiwan | 如果你留在台湾 |
| 333 | and been a product of that system, | 是这个系统的一个产物, |
| 334 | what do you think your life would have been? | 你认为你的生活会是什么? |
| 335 | I probably would have been a good student | 我可能是个好学生 |
| 336 | and a good employee at some company. | 和好员工 在某家公司。 |
| 337 | I may still be quite successful or not. | 我或许还是挺成功的 |
| 338 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 339 | But I think my chances increase as I go to the US | 但我觉得去美国的机会会增加 |
| 340 | because I have the discipline and tenacity | 因为我有纪律和坚韧 |
| 341 | that Asian system, the Chinese system taught me. | 那个亚洲系统,中国系统教会了我。 |
| 342 | And I have the free thinking and free will | 我有自由的思维和意志 |
| 343 | and the confidence that the American system taught me. | 以及美国制度给我的信任 |
| 344 | When you wrote this book, AI Superpowers, China, Silicon Valley, | 当你写这本书的时候,AI超级大国,中国,硅谷, |
| 345 | and the New World Order, when it came out in 2018, | 和新世界秩序,当2018年上映时, |
| 346 | I felt that there was almost something resembling a crisis | 我觉得几乎有类似危机的东西 |
| 347 | in your life that you were writing about | 在你的生活中,你写 关于 |
| 348 | towards the end of the book. | 在书的结尾。 |
| 349 | Your mother developed dementia. | 你妈妈得了痴呆症 |
| 350 | You yourself had cancer. | 你自己也得了癌症吗? |
| 351 | And it was like a moment where you had to think | 这就像一个时刻 你不得不思考 |
| 352 | about some of your choices. | 关于你的一些选择。 |
| 353 | You said, going to visit your mother, | 你说去探望你妈妈 |
| 354 | how had I been raised by such an emotionally generous woman | 这么慷慨的女人怎么把我养大的 |
| 355 | and yet lived my life so focused on myself? | 而我的生活却如此专注于我自己? |
| 356 | I'd love to know more about that period in your life | 我很想了解你生命中的那个时期 |
| 357 | and what it taught you. | 还有它教你的 |
| 358 | Yes, I have been a workaholic my whole life | 是的,我一辈子都是工作狂 |
| 359 | and especially during the years of 2009 | 特别是在2009年期间 |
| 360 | when I started my company, | 当我开始我的公司, |
| 361 | through the time I got cancer, | 在我患上癌症的时候 |
| 362 | which is several years after that, | 之后的几年, |
| 363 | my hardest working moments. | 我最辛苦的工作时刻。 |
| 364 | I've always believed that my work is my everything, | 我一直认为我的工作就是我的一切 |
| 365 | that it was by far the highest priority. | 这是迄今为止的最高优先。 |
| 366 | Family is something I have, I'll give them some time, | 家庭是我的东西, 我会给他们一些时间, |
| 367 | but always work is higher priority. | 但工作总是更优先 |
| 368 | And I think during my illness, I realized two things. | 我想在我生病的时候 我意识到了两件事 |
| 369 | One is that when I felt ill, | 一个是当我感觉不舒服时 |
| 370 | that it was my family that really did whatever it took | 是我的家人 真正做了它付出的一切 |
| 371 | to, with basically unconditional love for me, | 基本上 无条件爱我, |
| 372 | taking care of me, | 照顾我, |
| 373 | and despite my spending minimal time with them, | 尽管我和他们在一起的时间很少 |
| 374 | so obviously that's something that I feel like | 很明显,我感觉 |
| 375 | I need to rethink my priorities. | 我需要重新思考我的优先事项。 |
| 376 | That life can't just be my job. | 那生活不能只是我的工作。 |
| 377 | And the second thing is that I've always wanted | 第二件事是,我一直希望 |
| 378 | to make the biggest difference I can in the world. | 来改变我的世界 |
| 379 | And I had an encounter with a very wise Buddhist monk | 我遇到一个非常聪明的佛僧 |
| 380 | in Taiwan, and he said, | 在台湾 他说 |
| 381 | it's very dangerous to always want to change the world | 总是想改变世界是很危险的 |
| 382 | because you will use that as an excuse | 因为你会以此为借口 |
| 383 | to do things that are for your own self-promotion | 做一些有利于自我提升的事 |
| 384 | of yourself, your company, | 你自己,你的公司, |
| 385 | because you will explain to yourself | 因为你会向自己解释 |
| 386 | that it changes the world. | 改变世界 |
| 387 | So these two things really woke me up in a number of ways. | 所以这两件事真的让我在很多方面惊醒。 |
| 388 | I think one is that after my cancer went into remission, | 我认为其中一个是 我的癌症得到缓解后, |
| 389 | I was able to rebalance my life, | 我能够重新平衡我的生活, |
| 390 | devote more time to my family. | 把更多的时间用于我的家人。 |
| 391 | I'm still very busy, | 我还很忙 |
| 392 | but I think the priorities are not strictly work. | 但我认为,优先事项并不完全可行。 |
| 393 | And when I spend time with my family, | 当我和家人在一起时 |
| 394 | I try to make sure it's a meaningful quality time. | 我试图确保这是一个有意义的高质量时间。 |
| 395 | And then when they really need something, | 然后当他们真正需要的东西, |
| 396 | I would make that the highest priority. | 我认为这是最高优先事项。 |
| 397 | These are one set of changes. | 这是一组变化。 |
| 398 | But the other change really is related to AI, | 但另一个变化真的与AI有关, |
| 399 | is it made me aware that many people around me | 它让我意识到身边很多人 |
| 400 | were like me. | 就像我一样 |
| 401 | That job is everything. | 这份工作就是一切 |
| 402 | That if you ask someone, tell me about yourself, | 如果你问别人, 告诉我关于你自己, |
| 403 | they pretty much tell you about their job. | 他们几乎告诉你 他们的工作。 |
| 404 | And in this kind of a belief, it's extremely dangerous | 在这种信仰中,这是极其危险的 |
| 405 | as we look at jobs being turned upside down by AI. | 当我们看着工作被AI颠倒。 |
| 406 | We really need to reinstill in people that job isn't everything. | 我们真的需要重新为人们服务 工作不是一切 |
| 407 | There's more to it than that in life. | 于众生中有余. |
| 408 | But isn't the world that you're helping to explain today | 但你今天不是在解释这个世界吗? |
| 409 | how AI applies to companies in particular, | AI如何特别适用于公司, |
| 410 | doesn't it actually increase the risk of that, | 这不会增加风险, |
| 411 | that people know how much AI is changing the workplace | 人们知道AI在改变工作场所的程度 |
| 412 | and that it can instill a kind of Hunger Games type competition | 而且它能注入一种饥饿游戏类型竞争 |
| 413 | so that you are the one who emerges | 以便你变成复活者, |
| 414 | when others might fall by the wayside? | 当别人跌倒的时候, |
| 415 | I think in the book, I was quite clear to talk about | 我想书里说得很清楚 |
| 416 | what kind of employees a CEO needs to develop and train. | 什么样的员工 首席执行官需要发展和培训。 |
| 417 | Not just to hire and replace. | 不只是雇佣和替换。 |
| 418 | And also, I make a plea to the CEOs | 还有,我恳求CEO |
| 419 | that this should not be a very fast process | 这不应该是一个非常快速的过程 |
| 420 | to turn the company upside down. | 让公司倒置 |
| 421 | Number one, because a very fast process | 第一,因为一个非常快速的过程 |
| 422 | will remove the institutional memory, | 将取消机构记忆, |
| 423 | which the AI is not ready to take over. | 由大赦国际接管。 |
| 424 | But secondly, that we all have a responsibility | 但第二,我们都有责任 |
| 425 | to train people to become the jobs | 训练人们成为工作 |
| 426 | and the positions that will emerge. | 以及将要出现的立场。 |
| 427 | And train them early, train them well. | 早点训练,好好训练 |
| 428 | If at the end of the training you have a job for them, that's great. | 如果你在训练结束时有一份工作给他们 那就太好了 |
| 429 | If not, they'll be better trained to go to another company. | 如果不行的话,他们会接受更好的训练去另一家公司 |
| 430 | Just like we're seeing big layoffs in companies like Meta. | 就像我们在梅塔这样的公司看到大裁员 |
| 431 | But I don't doubt someone laid off at Meta | 但我不怀疑有人在梅塔下岗 |
| 432 | could get another job at a lesser company. | 可以在小公司找份工作 |
| 433 | And I gave the example that if the whole world becomes very merciless | 我举了一个例子 如果整个世界变得非常无情 |
| 434 | and want to move very fast with AI and fewer people, | 想要和AI一起快速行动 和更少的人, |
| 435 | then who's going to become consumers who will buy the products? | 谁会成为买这些产品的消费者? |
| 436 | We do need a society with suppliers and consumers. | 我们需要一个有供应商和消费者的社会。 |
| 437 | So social responsibility, pragmatism are all reasons I appeal to them | 因此,社会责任,务实 这些都是原因 我呼吁他们 |
| 438 | to understand what it takes, but do it with care. | 要了解它需要什么, 但要小心。 |
| 439 | I want to ask you about the many companies | 我想问你很多公司的事 |
| 440 | that you've helped get off the ground and the investments you've made. | 帮助你摆脱困境 投资。 |
| 441 | I think you were once written about as someone | 我想你曾经被写成一个人 |
| 442 | who manufactured Chinese billionaires | 制造中国亿万富翁的人 |
| 443 | because your venture capital firm got so many companies off the ground. | 因为你们的风险投资公司 有很多公司在地面上。 |
| 444 | Have there been times when you've really had to think about | 你曾经想过 |
| 445 | the use of AI within a company you've supported? | 在你支持的公司里使用AI? |
| 446 | I was wondering about facial recognition. | 我在想面部识别 |
| 447 | You can see all the positive examples of that, | 你可以看到所有积极的例子, |
| 448 | but you can also see the reports such as the one that came out a few years ago | 但你也可以看到报告 比如几年前出来的报告 |
| 449 | about AI being used to detect the emotions | 关于AI被用来侦测情绪 |
| 450 | of people from the Uyghur minority in Western China. | 中国西部维吾尔族少数民族人口分布图. |
| 451 | We don't invest in any company that works on surveillance | 我们不投资任何从事监控的公司 |
| 452 | because we look at civilian applications. | 因为我们研究的是民用应用。 |
| 453 | I think the issue of facial recognition is changing in two ways. | 我认为面部识别的问题在两个方面有所改变. |
| 454 | I think first, in many of the Chinese applications, | 我想首先,在许多中国应用中, |
| 455 | actually user consent is required. | 实际需要用户同意。 |
| 456 | I was just at the bank yesterday | 昨天我在银行 |
| 457 | and they wanted to do facial recognition. | 他们想做面部识别 |
| 458 | They said there's a new regulation that requires consent. | 他们说有新的条例需要同意. |
| 459 | The second thing is the cameras on the streets. | 第二件事是街上的摄像机 |
| 460 | There are similar cameras in London, | 伦敦也有类似的摄像机 |
| 461 | but actually, interestingly, the Chinese cameras on the streets, | 但实际上,有趣的是, 街上的中国摄像机, |
| 462 | while controversial, have led to a dramatic crime reduction | 虽然引起争议,但已导致犯罪大幅减少 |
| 463 | and almost near zero murders. | 和几乎零谋杀。 |
| 464 | If you ask people, that's the trade-off of cameras capturing you on the street. | 如果你问别人, 这就是在街上捕捉你的摄像机的取舍。 |
| 465 | This video is not disclosed or sold or given to anybody | 这段录像不会被泄露 也不会被出售 也不会给任何人 |
| 466 | and it's used for finding a crime. | 用来寻找犯罪 |
| 467 | Yes, your video will be recorded, | 是的,你的视频会被录制下来 |
| 468 | but you will get a higher level of safety, much higher. | 但你会得到更高的安全级别, 更高。 |
| 469 | Would you go for it? | 你会去吗? |
| 470 | Well, in China, they would and may not hold in other countries. | 在中国,它们不会在其他国家存在。 |
| 471 | Did you say yes or no when you were asked for your consent in the bank that day? | 你那天在银行被问及同意时是否答应了? |
| 472 | Of course I gave consent. | 我当然同意了 |
| 473 | I needed to get my credit card updated. | 我需要更新我的信用卡。 |
| 474 | So it was a condition. | 所以这是个条件 |
| 475 | You couldn't really knock consent. | 你无法真正敲敲同意。 |
| 476 | I can change banks, I guess. | 我可以换银行,我猜。 |
| 477 | It makes me curious also about AI in your own life. | 也让我好奇你的生活中的AI. |
| 478 | What is your own personal use that might surprise us? | 你的个人用途是什么 可能令我们惊讶? |
| 479 | I use AI for everything. | 我每件事都用人工智能 |
| 480 | I have AI for the CEO, which helps me run the company better. | 我有首席执行官的AI 帮助我更好地管理公司 |
| 481 | I really get to hear signals that indicate a crisis coming up, | 我真的听到信号 显示危机即将来临 |
| 482 | a risk coming up, and stop it before it becomes more serious. | 冒险即将到来, 并阻止它变得更严重。 |
| 483 | And I'm able to catch product problems before they become problems. | 而且我能够赶在产品问题成为问题之前抓住它们. |
| 484 | And I'm able to find and thank and praise the heroes who saved the day. | 而且我能够找到,感谢和赞扬那些拯救了这一天的英雄. |
| 485 | And also, very interestingly, this becomes my management coach. | 而且,非常有趣的是, 这成为了我的管理教练。 |
| 486 | For a CEO, it's rather difficult to get a management coach | 对于CEO来说,很难找到管理教练 |
| 487 | because you're so busy and the management coach can't be with you all the time. | 因为你很忙 管理教练不能一直和你在一起 |
| 488 | So they sit with you once a week. | 所以他们每周跟你坐一次 |
| 489 | After two months, they give you a summary. | 两个月后 他们给你一份总结 |
| 490 | But that is just a tiny sliver of your life. | 但这只是你一生的一小段 |
| 491 | AI, my AI coach is with me at every single meeting that I am in | AI,我的AI导师 与我每次见面 |
| 492 | and every single meeting that I said something, did something. | 每一次我说过的话 都会有所作为 |
| 493 | And now it can look basically longitudinally over a six-month period | 而现在它基本上可以纵向看 在六个月的时间里 |
| 494 | of every meeting I was in. | 我参加过的每次会议 |
| 495 | So I could say, what are something I said that's inappropriate? | 所以我可以说,我说什么是不合适的? |
| 496 | How should I conduct my meetings to achieve higher productivity? | 我应如何主持我的会议,以提高生产率? |
| 497 | What guidance do you have me as a CEO so I can do a better job? | 你给我做首席执行官有什么指导 让我做个更好的工作? |
| 498 | And it comes up with very cogent, very constructive, and sometimes rather direct | 它提出非常有说服力,非常有建设性,有时相当直接 |
| 499 | and not face-saving kind of things for me. | 而不是为我拯救面孔 |
| 500 | But hey, it's okay. | 但是,嘿,没关系。 |
| 501 | It's my personal AI agent. | 这是我的个人AI代理。 |
| 502 | Nobody else sees it. | 没有人看到它。 |
| 503 | The fact they criticized me or said I must change something, | 他们批评我或说我必须改变什么 |
| 504 | I take it to heart. | 我把它放在心上。 |
| 505 | And I take it to heart because AI has so much data | 我把它放在心上 因为AI有很多数据 |
| 506 | that it knows what it's talking about. | 它知道自己在说什么 |
| 507 | And I take it to heart because it's objective. | 我把它放在心上,因为它是客观的。 |
| 508 | And it's not telling me something that I like to hear | 它不告诉我什么 我喜欢听到 |
| 509 | or being overly critical or trying to earn more fee per hour. | 或者过分批评 或试图赚取更多的费用每小时。 |
| 510 | It's just telling me what it saw. | 它只是告诉我它看到了什么。 |
| 511 | So it's helped me quite a bit improving as a manager. | 因此,它帮助我 相当一点点改善 作为一个经理。 |
| 512 | And you do trust it. | 你确实相信它。 |
| 513 | When it says things, you do think actually it's got a point | 当它说出事情,你确实认为它有道理 |
| 514 | or does it ever make a mistake and you feel frustrated with it? | 或者它曾经犯过错误,你感到沮丧吗? |
| 515 | Oh, it does make mistakes. | 哦,它确实犯了错误。 |
| 516 | But the way we develop this product without going into too much details, | 但是,我们开发这个产品的方式 没有太多的细节, |
| 517 | it actually provides an evidence chain so that when it says, | 它实际上提供了证据链 所以当它说, |
| 518 | hey, you're not a good CEO because you're not a process person | 嘿,你不是一个好CEO 因为你不是一个过程的人 |
| 519 | and here's my evidence, | 这是我的证据 |
| 520 | then I can dig into each evidence and see if I agree or disagree. | 然后,我可以挖掘 每一个证据, 看看我是否同意或不同意。 |
| 521 | And they are things that you wouldn't have otherwise thought of or noticed? | 这些都是你本不会想到或注意到的事? |
| 522 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 523 | Can you give me an example, one that you're willing to share? | 你能举个例子给我吗? |
| 524 | Yes. | 对 |
| 525 | It says recently, the company has a number of risks | 上面说最近 公司有很多风险 |
| 526 | and it appears to be creating a degree of stress for you. | 这似乎给你造成了一定程度的压力。 |
| 527 | So much so that you've moved away from your usual gentle management style | 如此之多,以致你已经远离了 你通常温柔的管理风格 |
| 528 | and became harshly critical of people in front of others in meetings. | 并在会议中严酷地批评别人 |
| 529 | Given this is a Chinese company and people care about face, | 鉴于这是一家中国公司 人们关心的是脸 |
| 530 | you might want to hold back next time before you let someone have it. | 你可能想在下次你让别人拥有它之前 坚持住 |
| 531 | And I guess a therapist or a human coach could have said that to you, | 我想一个治疗师或一个人类教练 可以告诉你, |
| 532 | but they wouldn't be there in the meetings with you. | 但他们不会在那里 与你见面。 |
| 533 | They wouldn't have the data. | 他们不会有数据。 |
| 534 | Because I was under a lot of stress for a couple of weeks | 因为我压力很大 几个星期 |
| 535 | and after a few times it became obvious, right? | 几经之后,它变得很明显,对不对? |
| 536 | It's basically gentle, gentle, gentle, oops, super mean and then gentle again. | 它基本上是温柔的,温柔的,温柔的,ops,超级的刻薄,然后又温柔的再次. |
| 537 | But thanks to their advice, I became more gentle again. | 但多亏他们的建议,我又变得更温柔了. |
| 538 | But, you know, I think that kind of advice | 但是,你知道,我觉得这种建议 |
| 539 | and also I think the other advice that it gave me was very helpful | 而且我觉得它给我的其他建议 很有帮助 |
| 540 | was 93.6% of your comments were asking for details, clarifications | 你的评论中有93.6%要求详细,澄清 |
| 541 | for your own edification or to just to help you understand. | 帮助你理解 |
| 542 | But the meeting is for everybody. | 但会议是每个人的。 |
| 543 | What they really want to hear the most from you is your strategy, | 他们最想听到的是你的策略 |
| 544 | what you think is going well, not going well, what needs to change, | 你觉得进展顺利,不是进展顺利,需要改变什么 |
| 545 | not my new details about don't forget to remind me about this meeting happening when. | 而不是我的新细节 不要忘了提醒我这个会议什么时候发生的。 |
| 546 | So that's helpful advice too. | 那也是有用的建议 |
| 547 | Interesting. | 有意思,这很有趣 |
| 548 | I'd love to get your insight into applications or uses of AI or developments | 我很希望你能够深入了解 AI的应用或用途或动态 |
| 549 | that are just around the corner which won't be on many people's radar. | 就在拐角处 很多人的雷达上都看不到 |
| 550 | I know you've talked about AI first hardware or AI first devices. | 我知道你说过AI第一硬件或AI第一设备 |
| 551 | What are you envisaging? | 你在想什麽? |
| 552 | Well, I think a device like this one, which is a little recording device | 嗯,我觉得像这个装置, 这是一个小录音装置 |
| 553 | is going to be something that will be very, very popular. | 这将是一个非常,非常受欢迎的东西。 |
| 554 | I saw it in your hand actually at the beginning of the interview as well. | 我其实在采访开始时 也从你手里看到过 |
| 555 | It's a small, like not much bigger than a lapel pin really and a small circular device. | 它是一个小的, 不像一个带子针真的大 和一个小圆形装置。 |
| 556 | We love speech driven devices because speech recognition is getting good enough | 我们喜欢语音驱动设备 因为语音识别已经足够了 |
| 557 | and so devices will be speech driven. | 以便装置被驱动。 |
| 558 | But the phone is not good as a speech driven AI first device | 但电话不善于语音驱动AI第一设备 |
| 559 | because you have to open the phone, open the app, clip to talk, you know, | 因为你必须打开电话,打开应用程序, 剪辑说话,你知道, |
| 560 | eight seconds will have elapsed before you're able to say the first thing. | 八秒后你才能说出第一件事 |
| 561 | So what you need is a little device that is always on, always listening. | 所以,你需要的是一个小装置 它总是在,总是在听。 |
| 562 | So I can, you know, in the middle of this interview, I can say, | 所以我可以,你知道, 在这个采访的中间, 我可以说, |
| 563 | my agent, don't forget to send me the ticket to London, | 我的经纪人 别忘了送我去伦敦的机票 |
| 564 | then come back to this conversation and it will do so for me. | 然后回到这个对话,它会这样做对我来说。 |
| 565 | So you're using it as kind of like an aid memoir or a second phone | 所以,你把它作为一种 像援助回忆录或第二个电话 |
| 566 | or is it recording you all the time? | 还是一直录下来? |
| 567 | This product is actually a meeting recorder that we use in our product. | 这个产品其实是我们在产品中使用的会议记录器。 |
| 568 | So it's only turned on for meetings. | 所以它只是为会议打开。 |
| 569 | But in general, I think the trend for the technology | 但总的来看,我觉得科技的发展趋势 |
| 570 | is going to be speech driven, always on, always listening, so no button needed. | 总是听话,所以不需要按钮 |
| 571 | And it's able to listen, transmit everything to your phone, | 它能够听, 传输一切到你的手机, |
| 572 | transcribe everything it hears on your phone. | 把电话里听到的都转录下来 |
| 573 | So it's not leaking to some large server by some company. | 所以不会被某个公司泄露到某个大型服务器上. |
| 574 | And also the hardware trend, it's going to get smaller and smaller. | 以及硬件趋势,它会越来越小。 |
| 575 | If it's this small now, it'll be invisible in two years. | 今若此小者,二年之内不可见也. |
| 576 | So it creates either an amazing device or a scary device. | 因此它创造了一个惊人的装置或者一个可怕的装置. |
| 577 | This is unstoppable because I think the Asian culture | 这是不可阻挡的 因为我认为亚洲文化 |
| 578 | will ultimately accept this device because it offers so much benefit | 最终会接受这个设备,因为它带来很多好处 |
| 579 | compared to the costs that it charges. | 与其收取的费用相比。 |
| 580 | But the Western society will probably not be able to accept it. | 但西方社会可能无法接受. |
| 581 | I want to close with a thought that you put in your 2018 book, | 我想结束一个想法 你放在你的2018年书, |
| 582 | that our shared future depends on AI's ability to think | 我们共同的未来取决于AI的思考能力 |
| 583 | but coupled with human beings' ability to love. | 但结合人类的爱能力 |
| 584 | I have to confess that I don't have that much confidence | 我不得不承认我没有那么自信 |
| 585 | that we can bring those two things together. | 我们可以把这两件事结合起来 |
| 586 | Do you? | 是吗? |
| 587 | Well, I think there's really two meanings of love. | 我觉得爱情有两种意义 |
| 588 | My first book in 2018, I meant the connection people have to each other. | 我2018年的第一本书,我的意思是人们之间有联系. |
| 589 | And that is the more important thing and the more irreplaceable thing. | 这是更重要的事情,也是更不可替代的事情。 |
| 590 | Earlier when we talked about job displacement, | 之前我们讨论工作转移时 |
| 591 | I actually feel the largest job sector that will increase | 其实我觉得最大的工作部门会增加 |
| 592 | is sectors of human-to-human touch that goes from existing jobs, | 是人与人之间接触的部门 从现有的工作, |
| 593 | but also new jobs like foster home care, | 还有新的工作,如寄养家庭照料, |
| 594 | someone to come to your home and cook and make your closet beautiful, | 有人来你家做饭 让你的衣柜变得漂亮 |
| 595 | or a tourist guy who's very funny and also a comedian. | 或一个非常搞笑的旅游者 和喜剧演员。 |
| 596 | So as AI does the work, people will long for human connections, | 所以随着人工智能的工作, 人们会渴望人类的联系, |
| 597 | which might be good for bonding. | 这也许有利于结交。 |
| 598 | And AI cannot do it because even if AI could mimic it, people don't want it. | 而AI不能这样做,因为即使AI可以模仿它,人们也不会想要它. |
| 599 | But there is a second sense that in my new book, AI Native, | 但有另一种感觉 在我的新书,AI土著, |
| 600 | that I think is absolutely about love. | 我认为绝对是爱。 |
| 601 | And it's about human love of an idea, a passion. | 是关于人类对一个想法的爱,一种激情。 |
| 602 | When I started working on AI, people were laughing at me. | 我开始研究AI时,人们都在嘲笑我. |
| 603 | The field was a joke. | 球场是一个笑话。 |
| 604 | Nothing worked. | 没用的 |
| 605 | People said anything that worked became a product. | 人们说任何有效的东西都变成了产品. |
| 606 | So AI is a collection of everything that doesn't work. | 因此AI是所有不起作用的集合. |
| 607 | But we, the AI scientists, we endured that | 但我们,AI科学家, 我们忍受了 |
| 608 | because our love and belief and conviction that AI will change the world. | 因为我们的爱,相信和相信AI会改变世界。 |
| 609 | And when Steve Jobs came out with the iPhone, | 当史蒂夫·乔布斯带着iPhone出来时 |
| 610 | there was no previous data that an AI could predict. | 之前没有AI可以预测的数据. |
| 611 | That's the interface people want because everything before had been Nokia and Blackberry. | 因为以前的一切都是诺基亚和布莱克贝利 |
| 612 | And he came up with something with no data to back | 他想出一些东西 没有数据备份 |
| 613 | because he had this intuition and taste and design | 因为他有这种直觉 品味和设计 |
| 614 | and the love for creating new things that change the world. | 爱创造改变世界的新事物 |
| 615 | And Coco Chanel had the love of changing the world | 可可·香奈尔爱改变世界 |
| 616 | so that women don't have to wear uncomfortable clothes | 这样女人就不用穿不舒服的衣服了 |
| 617 | and that clothing could be both comfortable and beautiful. | 衣服既舒适又美丽 |
| 618 | And Elon Musk had that love and passion | 而伊隆·穆斯克有那种爱和激情 |
| 619 | and he had the courage to build recyclable rockets | 他有勇气制造可回收的火箭 |
| 620 | and build Tesla. | 并建造特斯拉。 |
| 621 | And these are things that people would do because they do it for love. | 这些是人们为了爱而会做的事。 |
| 622 | They don't do it just because it's a job. | 他们不这样做 只是因为它是一个工作。 |
| 623 | It's execution. | 这是处决。 |
| 624 | So this is a good coupling because as AI does the execution, | 所以这是个很好的组合 因为正如AI执行 |
| 625 | these people who are brilliant have things that they love and devote their lives to. | 他们有他们爱的东西 并奉献自己的生命。 |
| 626 | They now have AI to amplify their power. | 他们现在有了人工智能来扩大他们的力量。 |
| 627 | And AI that could execute so well, | 和AI,可以执行这么好, |
| 628 | they need people to come up with things that aren't based on data, | 他们需要人们想出一些不是基于数据的东西 |
| 629 | that are free, creative, flowing things backed by one thing, | 自由的,创造性的,流动的东西 有一件事支撑, |
| 630 | that I bet my life on it. | 我敢打赌我的生命在它。 |
| 631 | And that if you're willing to bet your life on it, | 如果你愿意赌上自己的生命 |
| 632 | then AI will work with you. | 然后AI会与你合作。 |
| 633 | You will get all the credit and the consequences | 你会得到所有的功劳和后果 |
| 634 | and AI will get the work done faster. | AI会更快地完成这项工作。 |
| 635 | So I think humans love for each other | 所以我认为人类相爱 |
| 636 | and humans love for what they want to create | 人类喜欢他们想创造的东西 |
| 637 | and for what they want to change in this world | 以及他们想改变的世界 |
| 638 | is a plausible partnership with AI. | 和AI是可信的合作关系。 |
| 639 | I will take it from you. | 我会把它从你身上。 |
| 640 | Dr. Kaifu Li, thank you so much for your time. | 李开福大夫,多谢时节. |
| 641 | We'll let you get on with what is now your evening in Beijing, | 我们会让你继续你在北京的夜晚 |
| 642 | but I hope we get to meet in person sometime. | 但我希望我们有一天能见个面 |
| 643 | I hope so too. | 我也希望这样 |
| 644 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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