专访比尔·阿克曼："永久资本"是投资者的最大优势吗？
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | What's the best way to get conviction and investment idea? | 获得信念和投资思想的最佳途径是什么?. |
| 0:03 | Find the best short seller in something that you own | 在你拥有的东西中找到最好的卖家 |
| 0:06 | and hear their arguments. | 并倾听他们的争论。 |
| 0:08 | If you can rebut each of their arguments, | 如果你能反驳他们每一个论点 |
| 0:10 | then you can feel more confident in your investment. | 这样你就能更有信心地投资了 |
| 0:13 | And the same thing should be true for your other views. | 你的其他观点也应该如此 |
| 0:14 | Find the person who makes the best case | 找到最有说服力的人 |
| 0:17 | for why you're wrong. | 因为你为什么错了 |
| 0:18 | The best hope we have to get to the truth | 我们最希望的真相 |
| 0:20 | is hearing from all sides | 各方都听到了 |
展开字幕全文（1113 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | What's the best way to get conviction and investment idea? | 获得信念和投资思想的最佳途径是什么?. |
| 2 | Find the best short seller in something that you own | 在你拥有的东西中找到最好的卖家 |
| 3 | and hear their arguments. | 并倾听他们的争论。 |
| 4 | If you can rebut each of their arguments, | 如果你能反驳他们每一个论点 |
| 5 | then you can feel more confident in your investment. | 这样你就能更有信心地投资了 |
| 6 | And the same thing should be true for your other views. | 你的其他观点也应该如此 |
| 7 | Find the person who makes the best case | 找到最有说服力的人 |
| 8 | for why you're wrong. | 因为你为什么错了 |
| 9 | The best hope we have to get to the truth | 我们最希望的真相 |
| 10 | is hearing from all sides | 各方都听到了 |
| 11 | and then sorting through who's got the better argument. | 然后整理谁有更好的论据。 |
| 12 | Hi everyone, I'm Nicolai Tangen, | 大家好 我是尼可莱·坦根 |
| 13 | the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. | 挪威主权财富基金的首席执行官。 |
| 14 | And today I'm in really good company. | 今天我和大家相处得很好 |
| 15 | I'm in New York with Bill Ackman, | 我和比尔·阿克曼在纽约 |
| 16 | the founder of Pershing Square. | 珀兴广场的创始人 |
| 17 | Bill is one of the best known investors in the world. | 比尔是世界上最知名的投资者之一. |
| 18 | And he does it in a very unusual way | 他这样做的方式非常不寻常 |
| 19 | because most funds own hundreds of companies, | 因为大多数基金拥有数百家公司 |
| 20 | but you own very few. | 但你拥有的很少 |
| 21 | Compounding very strong at 16% | 16%的强度增加 |
| 22 | and you've been doing it for a long time. | 而且你已经做了很长时间。 |
| 23 | So great to have you here. | 很高兴你能来 |
| 24 | Thanks for having me. | 谢谢你邀请我 |
| 25 | What's a good company? | 什么样的好公司? |
| 26 | Good or great? | 好还是好? |
| 27 | Great. | 不错 |
| 28 | A great company is a business you can buy today. | 伟大的公司是你们今天可以买的生意 |
| 29 | The markets could shut for 20 years | 市场可能关闭20年 |
| 30 | and you know with an enormous degree of certainty | 你们的确知道, |
| 31 | that you'll own something that's enormously valuable | 你会拥有非常有价值的东西 |
| 32 | to 120 years from now. | 一百二十年后的今天, |
| 33 | And what kind of industries are they | 他们是什么行业? |
| 34 | in these great companies? | 这些伟大的公司? |
| 35 | You know, I think it's less industry specific | 你知道,我觉得这不太具体 |
| 36 | than the structure of the business. | 而不是企业的结构。 |
| 37 | They're amazing businesses in many different sectors. | 他们是许多不同行业的惊人企业. |
| 38 | And so what kind of structure does it need? | 那么它需要什么样的结构? |
| 39 | We love businesses that look like royalty collecting | 我们喜欢像皇室收藏的生意 |
| 40 | companies, like annuities, | 公司,像年金, |
| 41 | where you can be very confident | 在那里你能够非常自信 |
| 42 | that the annuity will grow at a high rate | 年金会以很高的速度增长 |
| 43 | over a very long period of time. | 在很长的一段时间。 |
| 44 | And the cash that's generated from the business | 和从企业中产生的现金 |
| 45 | doesn't need to be reinvested in the business. | 不需要再投资 在企业。 |
| 46 | Actually, Pershing Square, I'll give you the pitch. | 事实上,Pershing广场, 我给你投球。 |
| 47 | We'll talk about that a bit later. | 我们待会再谈 |
| 48 | How many of those companies are there | 这些公司有多少个 |
| 49 | in the world, you think? | 你觉得呢? |
| 50 | The answer is there aren't a large number of big ones. | 答案是,没有大量的大。 |
| 51 | So from the perspective of Pershing Square, | 所以从Pershing广场的角度来看 |
| 52 | we're allocating not the kind of capital you allocate, | 我们没有分配你分配的资本 |
| 53 | but you know, writing pretty big checks. | 写大支票 |
| 54 | That's why we're concentrated. | 所以我们才集中精神 |
| 55 | Because one, there's a limited number. | 因为一个,是有限的数字。 |
| 56 | There are probably actually a couple hundred, | 很可能有几百个 |
| 57 | two, three hundred really great businesses. | 2,300个真正伟大的企业。 |
| 58 | But it's not so often that a really great business | 但这不是经常的 一个真正的伟大的生意 |
| 59 | becomes available at a price | 以价格提供 |
| 60 | that makes it a great investment. | 这使它成为一个伟大的投资。 |
| 61 | So that's why we're concentrated. | 所以我们才集中精神 |
| 62 | How do you come up with the idea? | 你怎么想出来的? |
| 63 | So where do you find these things? | 你在哪里找到这些东西的? |
| 64 | Just, you know, we love investing. | 只是,你知道,我们喜欢投资。 |
| 65 | We love learning about businesses. | 我们喜欢学习企业 |
| 66 | We read the newspaper, so to speak. | 我们读报纸,所以说。 |
| 67 | But we sort of built a library of companies we admire. | 但是我们建造了一个我们钦佩的公司图书馆。 |
| 68 | And you know, business that has great economic characteristic, | 你知道,有 伟大的经济特征, |
| 69 | high rates of growth, managed by good management teams, | 高增长率,由良好的管理团队管理, |
| 70 | they don't often become available at prices | 往往不以价格提供 |
| 71 | that offer the kind of returns we're looking for. | 提供我们要找的回报 |
| 72 | Why do more people do like you do? | 为什么更多的人像你一样做? |
| 73 | Because I think it's just interesting, you know, | 因为我觉得这很有趣 |
| 74 | Chris Horn has the same philosophy, Warren Buffett, | 克里斯・霍恩有同样的哲学,沃伦・巴菲特, |
| 75 | and you talk about how you do it, | 你谈论你是如何做到这一点, |
| 76 | and yet so very few people manage it. | 但很少有人管理着它 |
| 77 | So part of it is structural. | 所以它的一部分是结构性的。 |
| 78 | Well, many investors want to get rich quick. | 很多投资者都想尽快发财 |
| 79 | And this is not sort of a get rich quick strategy. | 这可不是什么快速战略 |
| 80 | You have to have kind of a longer-term view. | 你必须要有更长远的眼光 |
| 81 | And then I think most of the capital | 然后我想大部分的首都 |
| 82 | in the asset management industry is inherently short-term, | 在资产管理行业,本质上是短期的, |
| 83 | available for redemption on a minute-by-minute, | 可以在一分一秒内赎回, |
| 84 | day-by-day, or quarterly, or annual basis. | 每天,或每季度,或每年。 |
| 85 | It's hard to think long-term | 很难考虑长远 |
| 86 | if your investors are going to be judging | 如果你的投资者要判断 |
| 87 | on a very short-term basis, or the person you work for. | 在很短的时间内, 或你工作的人。 |
| 88 | You know, think the Citadels, the Millenniums, | 你知道,认为 大学,千年, |
| 89 | firms where very short-term oriented, | 以短期为导向的公司, |
| 90 | use a high degree of financial leverage. | 利用高度的财政杠杆。 |
| 91 | You can't absorb a high degree of volatility | 你无法承受高度波动 |
| 92 | in a strategy like that. | 在这样的策略。 |
| 93 | Whereas you need, | 你却需要 |
| 94 | the Warren Buffett's had permanent capital. | 沃伦·巴菲特家族拥有永久资本 |
| 95 | Chris Horn has been in the business for a long period of time. | 克里斯·霍恩长期从事此行. |
| 96 | He's cultivated investors | 他是种植的投资者 |
| 97 | that have given him kind of long-term backing. | 这给了他一种长期的支持。 |
| 98 | You need that in order to implement the strategy, | 为了执行战略,你需要这个 |
| 99 | and that kind of capital is very scarce. | 而这种资本非常稀缺。 |
| 100 | Tell me a bit more where you get your information from. | 告诉我更多你从哪里得到的信息。 |
| 101 | What do you read? | 你读什么书? |
| 102 | So personally, I read Wall Street Journal, FT, Economist, | 我个人读了《华尔街日报》 FT 经济学家 |
| 103 | occasionally the New York Times, when I can stomach it. | 有时纽约时报, 当我可以胃它。 |
| 104 | But no, it's a good newspaper, | 但是,不,这是一个很好的报纸, |
| 105 | but you have to, | 但你必须 |
| 106 | all media have biases. | 所有媒体都有偏见。 |
| 107 | I spend a fair amount of time on X, actually. | 我花了相当长的时间在X,实际上。 |
| 108 | It's probably my most important source of information, | 这可能是我最重要的信息来源, |
| 109 | because you can follow people | 因为你可以跟随别人 |
| 110 | who have very much diverging views on the same topic, | 他们对同一议题有非常不同的看法, |
| 111 | and I think it's a very good way to get to the truth. | 我认为这是一个非常好的方法 得到真相。 |
| 112 | That's become increasingly a big source | 这已经越来越重要了 |
| 113 | of where I get my media. | 我在哪里得到我的媒体。 |
| 114 | Who do you follow? | 你跟踪谁? |
| 115 | I follow probably a thousand people. | 我大概跟随一千人 |
| 116 | Over time. | 随着时间的推移。 |
| 117 | It depends on the topic. | 这取决于主题。 |
| 118 | I've got lots of different interests, | 我有很多不同的兴趣 |
| 119 | and interestingly, some of the firm's best investments, | 有趣的是 公司的一些最佳投资 |
| 120 | my personal best ideas, | 我个人最好的主意, |
| 121 | have just come from particular passions. | 刚从特别的激情。 |
| 122 | Health being an important passion | 健康是一种重要的热情 |
| 123 | led me to an insight about COVID. | 让我对COVID有了深刻的认识 |
| 124 | I started seeing COVID emerge in January, | 我开始看到COVID在1月份出现, |
| 125 | got concerned about a pandemic, | 担心大流行, |
| 126 | and my interest was not driven by an investment perspective, | 我的兴趣不是从投资角度出发的 |
| 127 | but it led to an interesting investment opportunity. | 但它带来了一个有趣的投资机会。 |
| 128 | Now, a family tragedy is causing me to spend a lot of time | 现在,一个家庭的悲剧 让我花了很多时间 |
| 129 | learning about what's going on, | 得知发生了什么, |
| 130 | AI and bringing computer interfaces, | AI和带来计算机接口, |
| 131 | and it may lead to some interesting investment opportunities. | 这可能会导致一些有趣的投资机会。 |
| 132 | Once we find something that's interesting, | 一旦我们找到有趣的东西 |
| 133 | due diligence is driven by fairly conventional | 尽职调查是由相当传统的 |
| 134 | looking at public filings, | 看公众档案, |
| 135 | and then using expert networks to talk to people. | 然后利用专家网络与人们交谈。 |
| 136 | We'll come back to your tragedy. | 我们会回到你的悲剧。 |
| 137 | How much time do you spend on X? | 你花了多少时间在X上? |
| 138 | My wife might say too much. | 我妻子可能说得太多了 |
| 139 | What is that? | 这是什么? |
| 140 | I don't calculate it. | 我不计算。 |
| 141 | What do you think, an hour a day or more? | 你怎么看,每天一小时或更多? |
| 142 | I would say it's usually in the morning and the evening, | 我想说通常在早上和晚上 |
| 143 | not during the business day, | 不在公事日, |
| 144 | but it depends on what else is going on in my life, | 但这取决于我生命中的其他事 |
| 145 | but I can spend, actually an interesting thing | 但我可以花,其实是一件有趣的事情 |
| 146 | is people who are on X versus people | 是那些在X对人 |
| 147 | who rely on conventional media, | 他们依赖传统媒体, |
| 148 | you generally feel like you're a week to two weeks ahead, | 你总觉得你提前一周到两周 |
| 149 | news comes out and you learned it a week ago, | 一周前你得知了这个消息 |
| 150 | so it's very much a real time source of information. | 所以它是一个非常实时的信息来源。 |
| 151 | You made a lot of money in restaurants. | 你在餐馆赚了很多钱 |
| 152 | Why have they been good investments? | 为什么他们投资不错? |
| 153 | Simple, predictable, free cash flow, generative businesses. | 简单,可预测,自由的现金流量,基因经营. |
| 154 | We've kind of focused on, for the most part, | 我们大部分时间都专注于 |
| 155 | the franchise business model, | 特许经营模式, |
| 156 | again, royalty, collecting companies, | 同样,皇室,收集公司, |
| 157 | but I think over time you build a domain expertise | 但我认为,随着时间的推移,你建立了一个领域专长 |
| 158 | in an area. | 在一个区域。 |
| 159 | It's just that my daughter runs a cocktail bar | 只是我女儿开鸡尾酒会 |
| 160 | and it's not an easy business. | 这可不是一件容易的事 |
| 161 | It's not. | 这不是。 |
| 162 | But again, it's less the sector than the structure. | 但同样,它的部门比结构要少. |
| 163 | McDonald's是一个惊人的生意, | |
| 164 | but it's really, people think of it as, | 但真的,人们会认为, |
| 165 | historically thought of it as a restaurant business, | 历史上认为它是一个餐馆生意, |
| 166 | and in its core it is, | 它的核心是, |
| 167 | but it's also a real estate business | 但它也是房地产生意 |
| 168 | and it's a franchising operation. | 它是一个特许经营。 |
| 169 | How much do you depend on your pattern recognition | 多少取决于你的模式识别 |
| 170 | or your gut feel, | 或者你的直觉, |
| 171 | the fact that you've seen these things play out before? | 你以前见过这种事吗? |
| 172 | I don't know, I think it's very valuable | 我不知道,我觉得很有价值 |
| 173 | to have experienced lots of market events over time. | 经历了很多的市场事件 随着时间推移。 |
| 174 | You know, we've kind of, I think it's, | 你知道,我们已经有点, 我想它是, |
| 175 | but importantly for us, | 但对我们很重要, |
| 176 | actually if you see that little tablet over there, | 其实如果你看到那边的小牌匾 |
| 177 | we took our kind of core investment principles | 我们采取了我们的核心投资原则 |
| 178 | and we created what amounts to a checklist. | 我创造了一个清单。 |
| 179 | We have a framework, and so I think that's, | 我们有一个框架, 所以我认为, |
| 180 | I would say, that framework, | 我想说,这个框架, |
| 181 | it helps us see the world in a way | 帮助我们从某种意义上看待世界 |
| 182 | which every once in a while surfaces | 偶尔会浮出水面 |
| 183 | an interesting investment opportunity. | 一个有趣的投资机会。 |
| 184 | So we'll now look at this thing here, | 所以,我们现在看看这个东西, |
| 185 | and we'll zoom in on it afterwards, | 然后我们放大它之后, |
| 186 | but just what are the most important things there? | 但最重要的东西是什么? |
| 187 | One, it's a business we can predict | 第一,这是我们可以预测的生意 |
| 188 | with a very high degree of confidence. | 以非常高度的信心。 |
| 189 | The value of a financial asset is the present value | 金融资产的价值为现值 |
| 190 | that cash will generate over its life. | 这笔钱将在其一生中产生。 |
| 191 | If you can't build a model of the next | 如果你不能造下一个模型 |
| 192 | reasonable period of time of a business, | 企业的合理期限, |
| 193 | 10, 15, 20 years, | 10、15、20岁 |
| 194 | I don't think you can come up with a value for it. | 我不认为你能找到它的价值。 |
| 195 | A lot of money is managed | 有很多钱被管理 |
| 196 | based on people believing a stock will go up or down | 基于人们相信 股票会上升或下降 |
| 197 | based on a new piece of information coming out, | 根据新的信息, |
| 198 | but it's inherently a short-term, | 但它本质上是短期的, |
| 199 | is the company gonna meet, exceed, or miss earnings? | 公司是要去开会,超过, 还是错过收入? |
| 200 | Huge amount of money is moved on that basis, | 如此一来就转移了巨额资金 |
| 201 | or an expectation of an event or news event | 事件或新闻事件的预期 |
| 202 | that will cause a stock to move in a certain way. | 会导致股票以某种方式移动。 |
| 203 | We kind of ignore that, right? | 我们有点忽略了这一点,对不对? |
| 204 | What we're doing is we're building a financial model | 我们要做的是建立一个金融模式 |
| 205 | of a company over a long period of time, | 在很长一段时间里, |
| 206 | so the business has to be inherently, | 所以生意必须内在 |
| 207 | there are many businesses | 有很多企业 |
| 208 | that we have no idea what they're worth, | 我们不知道他们的价值, |
| 209 | we just don't even look at them, | 我们只是不看他们, |
| 210 | once we conclude they're not, | 一旦我们得出结论 他们不是, |
| 211 | we can't predict their certainty. | 我们无法预测他们的确定性 |
| 212 | So I think predictability is important, | 所以我认为可预测性很重要 |
| 213 | and obviously to have predictable cash flows | 并且显然有可预测的现金流量 |
| 214 | and revenues over time, | 和收入随时间推移, |
| 215 | the business has to have the proverbial mode around it. | 企业必须有一个 谚语模式围绕它。 |
| 216 | So business quality durability, | 因此,商业质量耐久性, |
| 217 | I would say, critically important. | 我想说,非常重要。 |
| 218 | We want companies that are not exposed to, | 我们希望没有接触的公司, |
| 219 | we call extrinsic factors we can't control, | 我们称之为外部因素 我们无法控制, |
| 220 | so we don't really invest in commodity-sensitive businesses, | 所以我们不真正投资 在商品敏感的企业, |
| 221 | interest rate-sensitive businesses, | 对利率敏感的企业, |
| 222 | regulatory-sensitive businesses. | 具有监管敏感性的企业。 |
| 223 | So it's about, we keep it simple. | 所以这是关于,我们保持它简单。 |
| 224 | Well, at least your principles are set in stone, right? | 好吧,至少你的原则 是石刻,对不对? |
| 225 | That was intended to be, | 这是打算, |
| 226 | I told the guy on the team to make it stone, | 我告诉球队的那个人把它弄成石头 |
| 227 | we came back with a heavy plastic. | 我们带着重塑料回来 |
| 228 | How do you use the analysts? | 你怎么用分析师? |
| 229 | So, you're like just under 50 people in the firm. | 所以,你就像刚刚 50 个人在公司。 |
| 230 | I would say the firm is structured differently | 我要说公司的结构不同 |
| 231 | from Chris Han, we're 48 people, | 从克里斯・韩,我们是48人, |
| 232 | we're nine investment professionals, | 我们是九位投资专业人士 |
| 233 | and it's not me and a team of analysts, | 不是我和一组分析师 |
| 234 | it's actually an investment team. | 这其实是一个投资团队。 |
| 235 | You know, Ryan Israel became our CIO four years ago, | 你知道,瑞安・以色列 成为我们的CIO四年前, |
| 236 | but a typical structure of a hedge fund | 但典型的对冲基金结构 |
| 237 | is you have a portfolio manager, | 你有一个投资组合经理, |
| 238 | I guess that's normally my position, | 我猜那通常是我的立场 |
| 239 | who's responsible for allocating capital | 由谁负责分配资本 |
| 240 | among a team of analysts | 在一组分析员中 |
| 241 | who are working on kind of different areas, | 他们在不同的领域工作, |
| 242 | and the best ideas win, | 和最优的思维, |
| 243 | and people are compensated based on individual P&Ls. | 并且根据个人的保费和贷款给予赔偿。 |
| 244 | We're not structured that way. | 我们不是那样的 |
| 245 | One portfolio of 12, 14 investments, | 12、14个投资组合 |
| 246 | no one is compensated based on individual P&Ls. | 没有个人根据个人的保费和贷款获得补偿。 |
| 247 | Everyone's compensated ultimately | 每个人都得到补偿了 |
| 248 | based on how the overall portfolio does. | 根据总体投资组合情况。 |
| 249 | So everyone has, their interest is not | 所以,每个人都有, 他们的兴趣不是 |
| 250 | getting capital allocated to them, | 得到资本分配给他们, |
| 251 | their interest is making sure | 他们的兴趣在于确保 |
| 252 | that our firm's capital is allocated, | 我们公司的资本是分配的 |
| 253 | and our investors' capital is allocated | 和我们的投资者的资本 分配 |
| 254 | in a way that makes the most sense. | 以一种最有意义的方式。 |
| 255 | So how does it work? | 那这怎么行呢? |
| 256 | So you sit around this table here? | 所以你就坐在这里? |
| 257 | This is not, we have an investment team room, | 这不是,我们有一个投资团队的房间, |
| 258 | which is smaller than this, about half the size. | 它比这个小,大约一半大小。 |
| 259 | Okay, so there you are, you meet every week, or how do? | 好吧,所以你在这里, 你每周见面,还是怎么做? |
| 260 | The team has a formal meeting every week, | 团队每周有一次正式会议 |
| 261 | but we have lunch together almost every day, | 但我们几乎每天都一起吃午饭, |
| 262 | the full team, so very high degree | 整个团队,如此高的学位 |
| 263 | of interaction in the team. | 团队互动。 |
| 264 | Typically, someone identifies an interesting idea, | 通常,有人 找出一个有趣的想法, |
| 265 | it could be me, it could be Ryan, | 可能是我 也可能是瑞安 可能是莱恩 |
| 266 | it could be a member of the team. | 可能是团队的一员 |
| 267 | Hey, XYZ stock, a company we've filed for years, | 嘿,XYZ股票,一个公司 我们已经申报多年, |
| 268 | is now available at 40% discount | 现在有40%的折扣 |
| 269 | because they missed earnings. | 因为他们错过了收入。 |
| 270 | Let's update the file. | 让我们更新文件。 |
| 271 | Can we pull out the file? | 我们能把文件拿出来吗? |
| 272 | The team that has done the most work on the name | 对这个名字做最多工作的团队 |
| 273 | will dig in again, update their work, | 将再次挖掘,更新他们的工作, |
| 274 | typically a two-person team. | 典型的二人小组。 |
| 275 | Ryan or I, Ryan and or I will effectively oversee | 瑞安或我,瑞安 或我会有效监督 |
| 276 | that team by doing some amount of work. | 团队做了一些工作。 |
| 277 | So I'll read the annual reports, the proxy, | 所以,我会读的年度报告,代理, |
| 278 | the conference call transcripts, maybe some news articles. | 电话记录,也许一些新闻文章。 |
| 279 | The team doing the deeper dive will speak | 潜水的队伍会说话的 |
| 280 | to many industry experts, will do a kind of deep dive. | 对很多行业专家来说, 将做一种深度潜水。 |
| 281 | And then the- | 还有... |
| 282 | Will the whole team work on one idea at the time? | 整个团队会研究一个想法吗? |
| 283 | Two people will work on one idea and go deep. | 两个人将研究一个想法并深入人心. |
| 284 | Two people will have done some work, | 两个人会做一些工作, |
| 285 | that's Ryan and or I, and then the rest of the team | 这是瑞恩和我,然后其他团队 |
| 286 | will have done no work on the name. | 将不做任何关于名称的工作。 |
| 287 | And then that whole group will form a view | 然后,整个小组将形成一个视图 |
| 288 | as to whether the team who leads the work | 关于领导工作的团队是否 |
| 289 | 将构建PowerPoint演示文稿 | |
| 290 | and present to the team why they think | 向团队介绍他们为什么认为 |
| 291 | an investment is interesting | 投资很有趣 |
| 292 | and then we'll make a collective decision. | 然后我们做出一个集体的决定。 |
| 293 | But actually, important dynamic is | 但实际上,重要的动态是 |
| 294 | the typical hedge fund instruction | 典型的对冲基金指令 |
| 295 | in such a way your only incentive | 以这种方式,你唯一的激励 |
| 296 | is to get capital allocated to you. | 让资本分配给你。 |
| 297 | Which sort of causes you to kind of lean in | 是什么让你倾向于 |
| 298 | to wanting an idea to be in the portfolio. | 想要一个想法 在组合。 |
| 299 | In our case, we'll have two people have done the work | 就我们来说,我们有两个人做了工作 |
| 300 | in a very profound way, two people who have done | 以非常深刻的方式, 两个人谁做了 |
| 301 | some of the work and a group that has nothing invested | 一些作品和一个没有投资的团体 |
| 302 | in terms of time. | 就时间而言 |
| 303 | Do you need to have consensus? | 你需要达成共识吗? |
| 304 | If there is an objection or someone raises a concern, | 如果有人反对或引起关切, |
| 305 | we do more due diligence to address the objection. | 我们更加尽责地处理反对意见。 |
| 306 | Ultimately, I have the final say, | 归根结底,我最后要说的是 |
| 307 | but I can't think of an investment in the last decade | 但我想不出过去十年的投资 |
| 308 | that we didn't have really a collective view on. | 我们没有 真正的集体观点。 |
| 309 | So let's take an example like you on Brookfield. | 让我们在布鲁克菲尔德上举个例子 |
| 310 | Yes. | 对 |
| 311 | How does that work? | 怎么会这样? |
| 312 | How long time does it take from when you start | 什么时候才开始? |
| 313 | to look at it until you make the investment? | 看着它直到你投资? |
| 314 | ┮и眔笵 и璶笵Bruce Flatt | |
| 315 | and the senior Brookfield team working on a transaction. | 还有负责交易的布鲁克菲尔德高级团队 |
| 316 | So FYI, Brookfield is the private equity Canadian group. | 所以,FYI,布鲁克菲尔德是私人股权 加拿大集团。 |
| 317 | Yes, so I met Bruce Flatt in connection | 是的,所以我遇到了布鲁斯・弗拉特 与此有关 |
| 318 | with the bankruptcy of General Growth, | 与全面增长的破产, |
| 319 | where they were, we ended up partnering with them | 他们在哪里,我们最终和他们合作 |
| 320 | and doing a restructuring of the company. | 并进行公司重组。 |
| 321 | Got to know the team really well, | 非常了解球队 |
| 322 | had enormous respect for, | 我非常尊重你,我爱他 |
| 323 | came to have enormous respect for Bruce and Cyrus | 对布鲁斯和赛勒斯非常尊重 |
| 324 | and other members of that team | 以及该小组其他成员 |
| 325 | that today still run that company. | 今天仍然经营着那家公司 |
| 326 | But we never invested in Brookfield. | 但我们从未投资过布鲁克菲尔德 |
| 327 | Then we, the company over time restructured | 然后我们 公司经过一段时间重组 |
| 328 | and became a bit more of an asset light royalty | 更像是资产淡化版税 |
| 329 | collecting business. | 收集业务。 |
| 330 | And then we began to do diligence process | 然后我们开始勤勉 |
| 331 | a number of years ago. | 数年前. |
| 332 | And it was probably, | 这可能是, |
| 333 | Brookfield is actually quite a complicated company. | 布鲁克菲尔德其实是一个相当复杂的公司. |
| 334 | That's one of the reasons why it's attractively valued. | 这也是它有吸引力的价值的原因之一. |
| 335 | They've been simplifying the business over time. | 他们逐渐简化业务. |
| 336 | But it was probably a several month due diligence process | 但这可能是几个月的尽职调查程序 |
| 337 | that led to that investment. | 这导致了投资。 |
| 338 | Is it more difficult to beat the market now | 现在打赢市场比较难吗? |
| 339 | than it was when you started? | 而不是你开始的时候? |
| 340 | I don't think so. | 亦不见. |
| 341 | I would say we don't try to beat the market every month | 我会说我们不是每个月都想赢市场 |
| 342 | or even every quarter or every year. | 甚至每个季度或每年。 |
| 343 | But I think managing a concentrated pool of capital | 但我认为管理集中的资本池 |
| 344 | and having the ability to have a longer term view, | 并且有能力有长远的观点, |
| 345 | I think gives you a big competitive advantage | 我觉得你很有竞争优势 |
| 346 | in terms of beating the market over the long term. | 从长远来看,市场正在崩溃。 |
| 347 | But it's, the market's been an amazing competitor, | 但是,市场一直是 一个惊人的竞争者, |
| 348 | if you will, the index. | 如果你愿意的话,索引。 |
| 349 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 350 | Now, what is AI doing to the market? | 现在,AI在做什么市场? |
| 351 | I think it's making market participants | 我觉得它让市场参与者 |
| 352 | increasingly shorter and shorter term. | 时间越来越短。 |
| 353 | You know, you can, a 10K gets published | 你知道,你可以,一个10K 得到发布 |
| 354 | and AI can read it instantly. | 并且AI可以立即阅读. |
| 355 | There's a huge amount of capital invested | 投入了大量资本 |
| 356 | in looking for a short term, short term edge. | 寻找短期的边缘 |
| 357 | And AI, I think, enables that. | 我认为,大赦国际能够做到这一点。 |
| 358 | The type of investments you have which are AI related | 与AI相关的投资类型 |
| 359 | would be, I mean, you got AWS, anything else? | 我的意思是,你有AWS,还有别的吗? |
| 360 | So, you know, Meta is a big investor in, | 所以,你知道,梅塔是一个大投资者, |
| 361 | well, I would say every business today | 今天的每件事我都说 |
| 362 | is either AI related or should be, | 要么与大赦国际有关,要么应当, |
| 363 | or is gonna be disrupted by AI. | 或者会被AI干扰 |
| 364 | So I think that's the assessment that you have to do. | 所以我认为这就是你必须做的评估。 |
| 365 | You know, we own, we purchased Amazon | 你知道,我们拥有,我们购买了亚马逊 |
| 366 | after Trump announced the Liberation Day terrorist. | 在特朗普宣布解放日恐怖分子之后. |
| 367 | We acquired Meta after they disappointed people | 在他们失望之后,我们获得了梅塔 |
| 368 | by committing a large amount of money to CapEx. | 向CapEx承诺大笔资金 |
| 369 | And the same with Microsoft. | 微软也一样 |
| 370 | You know, it's sort of an interesting environment | 你知道,这是一个有趣的环境 |
| 371 | when you have a company come out publicly and say, | 当你有一个公司出来公开说, |
| 372 | we have enormous demand for our service, | 我们有巨大的需求 我们的服务, |
| 373 | therefore we have to invest well in excess | 因此,我们必须大量投资 |
| 374 | of what we expected in CapEx just to try to meet | 我们想在CapEx中见面 |
| 375 | the demand from our product and then stock price goes down. | 我们的产品需求,然后股价下跌。 |
| 376 | And that's what led to an investment in Microsoft. | 这导致了对微软的投资. |
| 377 | But it's probably those names represent | 但可能是这些名字代表 |
| 378 | about a third of our portfolio today. | 大约今天三分之一的投资组合。 |
| 379 | What is AI going to do to the world? | AI会对世界做什么? |
| 380 | It's gonna give almost everyone access to very low cost, | 它会让几乎每个人都得到非常低的成本, |
| 381 | very high intelligence. | 非常聪明 |
| 382 | So it's, if you think about, you know, | 所以,如果你考虑,你知道, |
| 383 | if intelligence is a competitive advantage in the world, | 如果情报是世界的竞争优势 |
| 384 | and we think that it is, | 我们认为,这是, |
| 385 | and then intelligence becomes a commodity, | 然后情报变成商品 |
| 386 | it's sort of a, it's a very interesting, | 这是一种, 这是一个非常有趣的, |
| 387 | interesting to think about what the implications are. | 有趣的是,思考一下其影响是什么。 |
| 388 | I sort of make the argument that what's left | 我提出这样的论点: |
| 389 | when everyone has access to low cost super intelligence | 当每个人都能获得 低成本的超级智能 |
| 390 | is sort of creativity, right? | 有点创意,对吧? |
| 391 | The, what LLMs can do is they can read everything | LLMS能做的就是读懂一切 |
| 392 | they can before and be incredibly knowledgeable about that. | 他们可以之前,并且非常了解这一点。 |
| 393 | But it's not clear to me that AI can be creative yet, right? | 但我还不清楚AI能不能有创意 对吧? |
| 394 | Einstein's light bulb moments, | 爱因斯坦的灯泡瞬间 |
| 395 | E equals MC squared or theory of relativity, | E等于MC平方或相对论, |
| 396 | I don't think that anything that came before Einstein | 我不觉得爱因斯坦之前有什么 |
| 397 | that AI would have read would have come out | 本来会读出来 |
| 398 | with that formula, if you will. | 如果你愿意的话 用那个配方 |
| 399 | And so I think the space that's left for human beings is, | 所以我认为留给人类的空间是, |
| 400 | but I do think it could lead to abundance as, | 但我确实认为这会导致丰满,因为, |
| 401 | I think there's gonna be explosion of entrepreneurship. | 我觉得创业会爆炸 |
| 402 | And I think there can be an explosion | 我觉得可能发生爆炸 |
| 403 | in overall GDP or global growth. | 国内生产总值或全球增长。 |
| 404 | Now you are known as an activist investor, | 现在你被称为一个活跃的投资者, |
| 405 | you know, buy stakes and force them to change, | 你知道,买桩 强迫他们改变, |
| 406 | but you don't do that all the time. | 但你不是一直这样 |
| 407 | I used to be known. | 我昔为人所知. |
| 408 | Sure, so tell me what, | 当然,所以告诉我, |
| 409 | well, why were you an activist investor then, | 那么,为什么你是一个活跃的投资人, |
| 410 | and why are you not so active now? | 为什么你现在不这么活跃? |
| 411 | Oh, I think we're very active now. | 哦,我觉得我们现在很活跃。 |
| 412 | The difference is we don't have to break down the door | 不同的是,我们不用破门而入 |
| 413 | to get into the room. | 进入房间。 |
| 414 | You know, when we- | 你知道,当我们... |
| 415 | Is that because you are older and nicer or? | 那是因为你年纪大了 更漂亮还是? |
| 416 | I think a couple of things have happened. | 我想发生了一些事情。 |
| 417 | One, activism in the early days | 一,早期的活动 |
| 418 | was not something taken very seriously | 并不是很认真的事情 |
| 419 | and you had to literally break down the door. | 你不得不从字面上打破门。 |
| 420 | As activism became more successful as a strategy, | 随着激进主义作为一种策略变得更加成功, |
| 421 | as we built our own reputational equity, | 当我们建立了我们自己的名声平等, |
| 422 | as I got to know every CEO in America, | 我认识美国每一个CEO |
| 423 | people realized, you know what, | 人们意识到,你知道吗, |
| 424 | these guys are actually thinking about the long-term interests | 这些家伙实际上在考虑长期的利益 |
| 425 | of the owners of the company, | 公司所有人, |
| 426 | investors in the business, the employees. | 企业的投资者,员工。 |
| 427 | You know what? | 你知道吗? |
| 428 | They behave themselves on boards of directors, | 他们表现自己 在董事会, |
| 429 | they can add significant value. | 它们可以增加巨大的价值。 |
| 430 | Why don't we just work with them | 为什么我们不和他们合作呢? |
| 431 | and be open to their ideas | 并接受他们的想法 |
| 432 | as opposed to having to run proxy contests? | 而不是不得不运行代理竞技? |
| 433 | And I think, so our last activist investment | 我想,所以我们最后的活动投资 |
| 434 | we launched in 2016, a decade ago. | 我们在2016年推出, 十年前。 |
| 435 | It's actually about the 10th anniversary of that investment. | 这其实是投资的十周年。 |
| 436 | And today we buy a stake in the business | 而今天,我们买一个股份 在生意 |
| 437 | and we generally get a thank you note from the CEO | 我们一般都会收到总裁的感谢信 |
| 438 | for taking a stake, | 赌注, |
| 439 | which is a very different message that we got. | 这是一个非常不同的信息 我们得到了。 |
| 440 | You know, years ago, | 你知道吗,几年前, |
| 441 | we might not even gotten a return phone call. | 我们甚至连回电都打不到 |
| 442 | And that enables us to be, you know, a helpful investor. | 这样我们就能成为一个有帮助的投资人 |
| 443 | The only thing I think that's happened | 我唯一认为发生的事情 |
| 444 | in terms of market dynamics, | 在市场动态方面, |
| 445 | it used to be that a really high quality business | 曾经是一个非常高质量的企业 |
| 446 | that somehow disappointed the stock might drop three or 4%, | 不知何故令股票下跌 3%或4%, |
| 447 | to this stock could drop 30 or 40% on a miss. | 这股股票可能会因为失利而减少30%或40%。 |
| 448 | And I think that's driven by the increasing kind of indexation, | 我认为这是由 越来越多的指数化, |
| 449 | which is reducing float | 正在减少浮点数 |
| 450 | and the increasing amount of leveraged capital, | 以及杠杆资本不断增加, |
| 451 | short-term capital invested in markets | 市场投资的短期资本 |
| 452 | that is creating a lot more volatility. | 这造成了更大的波动。 |
| 453 | And what that has done is it's made, | 已经做的是它做的, |
| 454 | the occasional amazing high growth durable company | 偶尔的惊人高成长耐久公司 |
| 455 | available at a discounted price for a period of time | 在一段时期内以折扣价格提供 |
| 456 | based on a short-term disappointment. | 基于短期失望。 |
| 457 | So our portfolio today is filled with businesses | 所以我们今天的组合 充满了企业 |
| 458 | where we have enormous respect for the people running them. | 我们非常尊重管理他们的人 |
| 459 | They don't need much in the way of an activist. | 他们并不需要太多 阻碍一个活动家。 |
| 460 | We're happy to be a, you know, | 我们很高兴成为一个,你知道, |
| 461 | a quiet owner that occasionally has an idea. | 一个安静的主人,偶尔有一个想法。 |
| 462 | Do you think it's something that happened with you as well? | 你觉得你也是这样吗? |
| 463 | In what sense? | 在什么意义上? |
| 464 | Either with age or becoming part of the establishment | 年龄或成为机构的一部分 |
| 465 | or just somehow becoming a nice person. | 或成为好人 |
| 466 | Part of, you know, more wealthy or I don't know. | 更有钱还是我不知道 |
| 467 | I've always been a nice person. | 我一直是个好人 |
| 468 | You know, the media may have portrayed me as otherwise. | 媒体可能把我描绘成别的东西 |
| 469 | But, you know, look, I'm the generation of people | 但是,你知道,你看, 我是一代人 |
| 470 | that are running many sort of businesses. | 经营着很多生意 |
| 471 | I know this every CEO in America, | 我知道这每一个CEO在美国, |
| 472 | either directly or one person removed. | 直接或一人被带走。 |
| 473 | And so, you know, it's pretty easy to get a read | 所以,你知道, 这是相当容易得到一个阅读 |
| 474 | on what we're like as owners, as shareholders. | 我们作为所有者,作为股东。 |
| 475 | And again, we haven't made an activist investment in 10 years. | 再说一遍,我们已有十年没有投资了。 |
| 476 | How do you assess your other activist investors? | 你如何评估你其他的积极投资者? |
| 477 | You know, it depends. | 你知道,这取决于。 |
| 478 | Well, first of all, I think it's very, very healthy for markets, right? | 首先,我认为这是非常, 非常健康的市场,对不对? |
| 479 | The risk of increasing indexation and passive ownership | 增加指数化和被动所有权的风险 |
| 480 | is it can lead to, you know, | 它能导致,你知道, |
| 481 | without shareholders holding management to account, | 没有股东 控股管理层, |
| 482 | you know, if you look at the history of activism, | 你知道,如果你看看 活动的历史, |
| 483 | you know, the, you know, JP Morgan, Carnegie, right? | 你知道,JP摩根,卡内基,对吧? |
| 484 | These were not activists, | 他们不是活动家, |
| 485 | but they were major shareholders of US Steel and railroads back then. | 但他们是美国钢铁和铁路公司的主要股东 |
| 486 | They cared about how the businesses were run. | 他们很关心企业的运作方式 |
| 487 | As Carnegie, you know, when he passed away, became, | 正如卡内基,你知道, 当他去世,变成, |
| 488 | he was a philanthropist, gave away sort of all of his assets, | 他是一个慈善家, 放弃了他的所有资产, |
| 489 | the rise of, you know, fidelity investments, Vanguard indexation. | 忠诚投资的兴起 前卫指数化 |
| 490 | There was this dissemination of controlled companies. | 受控公司的传播。 |
| 491 | You know, Europe is still comprised of many controlled businesses. | 你知道,欧洲仍然由许多受控的企业组成。 |
| 492 | There are fewer and fewer other than, you know, | 除了,你知道,还有越来越少的 |
| 493 | sort of technology startups of the last whatever period. | 某种技术的启动 最后一个时期。 |
| 494 | And it led to a period of meaningful underperformance | 这导致了一段有意义的表现不佳时期 |
| 495 | in the 70s and the early 80s. | 在70年代和80年代早期。 |
| 496 | And it was actually Mike Milken that enabled not quite activists, | 事实上是迈克·米尔根 使得活动家们无法参与 |
| 497 | but a group of entrepreneurs like Carl Icahn and Nelson Peltz, | 但是卡尔·伊卡恩和纳尔逊·佩尔茨等一批企业家 |
| 498 | the ability to actually, you know, put companies in play. | 能够真正地,你知道, 让公司发挥作用。 |
| 499 | And you had Marty Lipton invent the poison pill | 你让马蒂·利普顿发明了毒药 |
| 500 | that stopped green mail activity and other green mail sort of became illegal. | 停止了绿色邮件活动 和其他绿色邮件都是非法的 |
| 501 | And then these ability to take company private without the board | 然后,这些能力 采取公司私人 没有董事会 |
| 502 | having the ability to negotiate was sort of disintermediated | 有谈判能力 有点分散 |
| 503 | by the poison pill. | 由毒药丸。 |
| 504 | And then we had a period of meaningful underperformance | 然后我们有一段时间 有意义的表现不佳 |
| 505 | until, I would say, activism became more of a thing over the last 20, 25 years. | 直到,我要说, 过去20,25年中, 积极性变得更加重要。 |
| 506 | 你和Carl Icahn有一点关系 | |
| 507 | I did. | 没错 |
| 508 | Yes. | 对 |
| 509 | Tell me about it. | 说曰. |
| 510 | So I did a transaction with Carl Icahn. | 所以我和卡尔·伊坎做了一笔交易 |
| 511 | This was in 1998. | 这是在1998年。 |
| 512 | And it was a very small deal. | 并且这是个很小的交易。 |
| 513 | And I sold him an interest in a company called Hallward Realty Partners | 我卖给他一家叫Hallward房地产合伙人的公司 |
| 514 | at a big premium to where it was trading, but a big discount to what it was worth. | 给它交易地点的价钱很大 但值多少就多少 |
| 515 | And he as part of the transaction, he gave me what he called Schmuck | 作为交易的一部分 他给了我他所谓的Schmuck |
| 516 | Insurance, which said that if he sold the stake or transferred it | 保险,他说如果他卖掉或转让 |
| 517 | any time in the next three years at a premium, | 在接下来的三年里的任何时间, |
| 518 | I would get 50 percent of his profit over, I think, a 10 percent return. | 我会得到他利润的50%, 我想,10%的回报。 |
| 519 | And he made a bid for the company, but he didn't win. | 而他为公司出价,但并未获胜. |
| 520 | Someone else bought the company and he sold within two years. | 有人买下公司,他在两年内卖掉。 |
| 521 | And he owed us like four and a half million dollars and he refused to pay. | 他欠我们四百五十万美元 他拒绝还钱 |
| 522 | So I had to sue him. | 所以我不得不起诉他。 |
| 523 | So you got a bit angry. | 所以你有点生气了 |
| 524 | I didn't get angry. | 我没生气 |
| 525 | I just, you know, this Carl was known for this. | 我只是,你知道, 这个卡尔是著名的这一点。 |
| 526 | So that's why I had a very simple agreement. | 这就是为什么我有一个非常简单的协议。 |
| 527 | It was an eight page document. | 这是一个8页的文件。 |
| 528 | I put in a little mathematical formula and I described sale | 我加了一个数学公式,我描述销售 |
| 529 | or otherwise transfer. | 或以其他方式转让。 |
| 530 | I give a very complete definition. | 我给出了一个非常完整的定义。 |
| 531 | But he, you know, he likes | 但他,你知道,他喜欢 |
| 532 | he likes the battle, he likes the battle. | 他喜欢战斗,他喜欢战斗。 |
| 533 | Herbalife. | 赫巴毕生. |
| 534 | Yes, that led to Herbalife. | 是的,这导致了赫巴利夫。 |
| 535 | So basically what happened was we won the case. | 所以基本上,我们赢了这个案子。 |
| 536 | Now, the way Carl operates, we sued him. | 现在,卡尔的运作方式, 我们起诉了他。 |
| 537 | We won. | 我们赢了。 |
| 538 | And then you can appeal within 180 days. | 然后你可以在180天内上诉。 |
| 539 | He would wait to day 179 and then appeal. | 他等179天,然后提出上诉。 |
| 540 | And then we went on appeal and then he would appeal again. | 然后我们继续上诉 然后他会再次上诉 |
| 541 | He appealed to the Supreme Court and again, it was a relevant case. | 他向最高法院提出上诉,而且这是一个相关案件。 |
| 542 | But he delayed us for like, I don't know, six, seven years. | 但是他拖延了我们6、7年 |
| 543 | Meanwhile, we were earning nine percent interest | 同时,我们赚了9%的利息 |
| 544 | because that was under the terms of the agreement. | 因为这符合协议的规定 |
| 545 | And eventually we won. | 最后我们赢了。 |
| 546 | And he called me, says, Bill, congratulations. | 他打电话给我,说,比尔,恭喜你 |
| 547 | And I said some fairly strong words back to Mr. Icahn. | 我对伊坎先生说了一些很强烈的话 |
| 548 | And he didn't like that I did that. | 他不喜欢我这么做 |
| 549 | And he sat in the weeds. | 他坐在杂草里。 |
| 550 | And then we did short a company called Herbalife. | 然后我们缩短了一个叫Herbalife的公司。 |
| 551 | And then Carl, without doing any due diligence in the business, | 然后卡尔,没有做任何尽职调查的生意, |
| 552 | basically figured he would squeeze us and very effectively did. | 基本上认为他会挤压我们 非常有效地做了。 |
| 553 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 554 | So and you lost a billion. | 所以,你损失了十亿。 |
| 555 | We did. | 我们做到了。 |
| 556 | How do you how do you assess | 你怎么评价? |
| 557 | the kind of the decline in shareholder rights | 股东权利下降的类型 |
| 558 | that's happening just now? | 刚刚发生的事? |
| 559 | You're referring to companies going space, going public, for example. | 比如说,你指的是一些公司去空间,去公开。 |
| 560 | Those kind of things with fewer rights to the shareholders, | 那些对股东的权利较少的东西, |
| 561 | voting rights, ability to, you know, appoint boards, these kind of things. | 投票权,有能力,你知道, 指定董事会,这类事情。 |
| 562 | I think the you know, if you look back, | 我想你知道 如果你回头看 |
| 563 | I'm a big believer in founder controlled companies in terms of their ability | 我非常相信创始人控制公司的能力 |
| 564 | to make smart long term decisions. | 做出明智的长期决定。 |
| 565 | I mean, the problem of a market that's become increasingly short term, | 我的意思是,一个市场的问题 越来越短期, |
| 566 | the company is not a controlled business. | 公司不是受控制的业务。 |
| 567 | You know, CEOs feel pressure to do things to make the numbers, | 你知道,CEO觉得压力 做一些事情 做数字, |
| 568 | if you will, in the short term that can be diminished | 如果你愿意的话,在短期内,这可以减少 |
| 569 | the long term value of the business. | 企业的长期价值。 |
| 570 | And what you know, you've got if Warren Buffett or Sam Walton | 你知道,你已经得到了 如果沃伦巴菲特或山姆沃尔顿 |
| 571 | or I would argue, Elon Musk, you know, in control of the company. | 否则我会争辩 Elon Musk 控制公司 |
| 572 | You know, I view that generally as a very good thing. | 我认为这是件好事 |
| 573 | But I don't know about the next generation. | 但不知后代. |
| 574 | What you don't want to happen is, you know, the next, you know, Elon Musk's. | 你不想发生的是,你知道, 下一个,你知道,埃隆穆斯克的。 |
| 575 | I don't know whether his son or daughter, you would want that person | 我不知道他的儿子或女儿, 你会想要那个人 |
| 576 | handed the control that the parent has. | 交出了父母拥有的控制权。 |
| 577 | So I like one share, one vote. | 所以我喜欢一分一票 |
| 578 | We generally don't like to invest in controlled companies. | 我们一般不喜欢投资受控公司. |
| 579 | But if the controlling shareholder is, you know, a phenomenal CEO, | 但是,如果控股股东,你知道, 一个惊人的CEO, |
| 580 | then I can be comfortable investing in a controlled business. | 那样我就可以在受控的生意上投资了 |
| 581 | But our strong preference is to avoid controlled companies because, | 但我们的强烈倾向是避免被控制的公司,因为, |
| 582 | you know, I do think the there's a certain | 你知道,我确实认为 有一个特定的 |
| 583 | discipline that comes from a shareholder having the ability to, | 纪律来自股东 有能力, |
| 584 | you know, to weigh in on occasion. | 你知道,有时会举重。 |
| 585 | What makes a good CEO? | 是什么让一个好CEO? |
| 586 | I would say passion, intelligence, energy, | 我会说激情、智慧、能量 |
| 587 | you know, and overall | 总体来说 |
| 588 | and, you know, good leadership qualities. | 而且,你知道,良好的领导素质。 |
| 589 | People want to follow that person and to the end. | 人们想跟随那个人,直到最后. |
| 590 | How do you assess how important part of the equation is it when you invest? | 你如何评估你投资时 方程式有多重要? |
| 591 | It's less important to us generally. | 这对我们来说并不重要 |
| 592 | I would say the business quality, growth, durability are the most important factors. | 我要说,商业质量、增长、耐久性是最重要的因素。 |
| 593 | If it's the wrong CEO, we can play a role in recruiting a better one. | 如果这是错的CEO, 我们可以在招聘更好的CEO方面发挥作用。 |
| 594 | So it's less important to us. | 所以这对我们来说不重要 |
| 595 | Of course, we prefer a great business with a phenomenal CEO. | 当然,我们更喜欢一个伟大的生意 一个惊人的首席执行官。 |
| 596 | But that doesn't happen that often at an attractive price. | 但这种事情不是经常以有吸引力的价格发生的。 |
| 597 | Usually it's a great business that gets to an attractive price | 通常,这是伟大的生意 得到一个有吸引力的价格 |
| 598 | because management has made a series of mistakes. | 因为管理层犯了一系列错误。 |
| 599 | You mentioned the importance of having a long term capital | 你提到拥有长期资本的重要性 |
| 600 | and now you have permanent capital. | 现在你有永久资本。 |
| 601 | Just tell me about tell me about that. | 告诉我吧 |
| 602 | If you look back, you know, I'm a sort of Warren Buffett disciple. | 如果你回头看,你知道,我是 一种沃伦巴菲特门徒。 |
| 603 | He started a hedge fund. | 他创办了对冲基金. |
| 604 | He was an activist investor. | 他是一个活跃的投资人。 |
| 605 | He doesn't talk about it now. | 他现在不谈论它。 |
| 606 | Actually, today he just announced that he's stepping down as the chair, | 实际上,今天他刚刚宣布 他下台做主席, |
| 607 | becoming chair emeritus of Berkshire. | 成为伯克郡的荣誉勋章 |
| 608 | He was running a hundred million dollar hedge fund in 1969, | 他在1969年管理着一亿美金的对冲基金, |
| 609 | and he had a right to receive 25 percent of the profits over a six percent return. | 而且他有权得到25%的利润 超过6%的回报。 |
| 610 | He gave up that promote and he gave back the capital | 他放弃了提拔,还了首都 |
| 611 | to his investors and took control of a pretty shitty business. | 和他的投资人 并控制了一个相当糟糕的企业。 |
| 612 | You know, a textile mill or a series of textiles mills | 纺织厂或一系列纺织厂 |
| 613 | at a time when the Chinese were becoming more and more competitive. | 此时中国人竞争越来越激烈. |
| 614 | And he took a hundred thousand dollar salary and no incentive fee. | 他拿了10万美元的工资,没有奖励费。 |
| 615 | And why did he do it? | 他为什么这么做? |
| 616 | Because he realized, you know, doing the math on compounding over time | 因为他意识到,你知道,做数学 复合一段时间 |
| 617 | that his ability to create value would be impaired by a capital base | 他创造价值的能力将受到资本基础的损害 |
| 618 | that could disappear overnight or even disappear in the relative short term. | 可以在一夜之间消失,甚至在短期内消失。 |
| 619 | So he traded permanent capital for much less favorable economics | 所以他用永久资本来换取更不可取的经济学 |
| 620 | and obviously has worked out well for him in a world where the vast majority | 很明显,在这个绝大多数人生活的世界里,他的工作很顺利 |
| 621 | of other investors have capital that can leave tomorrow. | 其他投资者有资本 可以明天离开。 |
| 622 | It's a huge competitive advantage to not have to, you know, | 不需要,你知道, 这是一个巨大的竞争优势 |
| 623 | we were able to go into Covid and the world's melting down | 我们进入了科维德,世界正在融化 |
| 624 | and we could be very aggressively deploying capital | 我们可能非常积极地部署资本 |
| 625 | because we weren't worried about redemptions at the end of the month. | 因为月底我们不担心赎罪 |
| 626 | And, you know, among the things that create the best opportunities in markets | 在创造市场最佳机会的事物中 |
| 627 | is the fact that the vast majority of asset managers | 绝大多数资产管理人 |
| 628 | have capital that can can get pulled. | 有资本可以拉。 |
| 629 | You know, the human nature, I think, going back to, you know, | 你知道,人性,我想, 回到,你知道, |
| 630 | the early days of of man, right, the when when the you're in the savanna | 男人的早期,对, 当你在草原上 |
| 631 | and all of a sudden animals are running in that direction, | 动物突然朝那个方向跑去 |
| 632 | it means something very frightening is behind them. | 意味着他们身后有些可怕的东西 |
| 633 | So the human nature is, you know, I want to I want to go where they're going, | 所以,人性是,你知道, 我想,我想去他们要去的地方, |
| 634 | because otherwise they're going to get eaten by the lions. | 否则它们会被狮子吃掉 |
| 635 | Right. | 对 |
| 636 | I think that's still inherent to human psychology, | 我认为这还是人类心理学所固有的 |
| 637 | which is why when markets implode, people are selling, | 这就是为什么当市场崩溃,人们正在出售, |
| 638 | you know, quote unquote, at the bottom, because it's just that that fear. | 你知道,引用未引文, 在底部, 因为这只是那种恐惧。 |
| 639 | And, you know, one of the important disciplines | 而且,你知道,一个重要的学科之一 |
| 640 | is a kind of a dispassionate, you know, view of volatility. | 这是一种冷静的,你知道的, 对波动的看法。 |
| 641 | But you can't be dispassionate if your clients are going to pull your money. | 但如果你的客户要拉你的钱 你就不能冷静下来 |
| 642 | And, you know, if you can set yourself up in such a way that you're I mean, | 而且,你知道,如果你能 设置自己的方式 这样你我的意思是, |
| 643 | you know, Norway's done a pretty good job with this. | 你知道,挪威已经做了一个相当不错的工作。 |
| 644 | But absent being a sovereign wealth fund, there's very little capital | 但是如果没有主权财富基金, 资本很少 |
| 645 | in the asset management industry that's permanent. | 在资产管理行业是永久性的。 |
| 646 | And that gives that's a huge bit of advantage. | 这给了我们巨大的优势。 |
| 647 | Time arbitrage, as some people refer to it, the ability | 时间套利,有些人提到它,能力 |
| 648 | to be a long term investor in a short term world really exists | 成为短期世界的长期投资者 |
| 649 | for us because of our capital base. | 因为我们的资本基础。 |
| 650 | But you have a permanent capital base, but you're also now setting up | 但你有永久的资本基础, 但你现在也在设置 |
| 651 | an investment vehicle, which is in a way. | 投资工具, 在某种程度上。 |
| 652 | Well, you're trying to replicate Berkshire. | 你试图复制伯克郡 |
| 653 | Is that the way we should look at it with an insurance company and so on? | 保险公司应该这样看待吗? |
| 654 | So we had our version of a textile business. | 所以我们有我们版本的纺织业。 |
| 655 | It happens to be a much better business than textiles. | 恰好比纺织业好得多 |
| 656 | Howard Hughes, Howard Hughes. | 霍华德·休斯,霍华德·休斯. |
| 657 | But it's a business that is, I would say, the market assigns | 但我想说的是 市场分配的生意 |
| 658 | a high cost of capital to the business. | 企业的资本成本很高。 |
| 659 | And it's hard for us to exceed that cost of capital in a real estate operation. | 我们很难超过房地产经营的资本成本。 |
| 660 | It's a very good business | 这是一个非常好的生意 |
| 661 | that over decades will generate a huge amount of cash. | 数十年来将产生大量现金。 |
| 662 | Basically, it's a business of sort of building these | 基本上,这是一种生意 建造这些 |
| 663 | and developing these these small cities. | 并发展这些小城市。 |
| 664 | What we're doing is we're transforming that business. | 我们要做的是改变生意 |
| 665 | What did Buffett do? | 巴菲特做了什麽? |
| 666 | He took control of Berkshire. | 他控制了伯克郡. |
| 667 | Over time, he exited textiles, took the cash from textiles. | 随着时间的推移,他离开了纺织品,从纺织品中拿走了现金. |
| 668 | He bought an insurance company | 他买了一家保险公司 |
| 669 | and he did something different from other insurance operators. | 他做了一些与其它保险业者不同的事 |
| 670 | That is, typical insurance company invests nearly the entire | 也就是说,典型的保险公司 投资几乎全部 |
| 671 | collection of assets in fixed income, pretty high grade fixed income securities, | 固定收入资产,相当高等级的固定收入证券, |
| 672 | and they focus on making a profit on the liabilities, i.e. | 他们专注于为负债获利,即: |
| 673 | writing insurance. | 写作保险。 |
| 674 | What Buffett did is he, you know, over time, focused more | 巴菲特所做的就是 他,你知道,随着时间的推移, |
| 675 | more on running a profitable insurance business. | 更多的是经营盈利的保险业务。 |
| 676 | But he took 100 percent of the float generated by writing | 但是他把百分之百的浮点数都拿走了 |
| 677 | policies and reinvested, | 政策和再投资, |
| 678 | put that capital in short term treasuries | 短期国库投资 |
| 679 | and took the surplus of the insurer invested in common stocks. | 并拿走了保险人投资于共同股票的盈余。 |
| 680 | And that led enabled him to run a 20 plus percent | 这使得他能跑20%以上 |
| 681 | ROE insurer that's built most of the value Berkshire over time. | Berkshire公司大部分价值都是由ROE保险人承担的 |
| 682 | So what do you think Howard Hughes will look like in 10 years time? | 你觉得10年后霍华德・休斯会怎么样? |
| 683 | So in the next several years and hopefully on a more accelerated basis, | 所以在接下来的几年里 希望能加快速度 |
| 684 | we're going to take as much capital as we can on the real estate operation, | 我们要尽我们所能的 投资房地产业务, |
| 685 | turn it into an asset light real estate company, | 把它变成一个资产轻房地产公司, |
| 686 | reinvest the capital in the insurance operation | 将资本再投资于保险业务 |
| 687 | and then compound the capital insurance operation at a high rate over time. | 之后又以很高的费率将资本保险业务复杂化。 |
| 688 | So I would say in a decade from now, it will be 80 plus percent | 因此,我要说,十年后, 这将是80+% |
| 689 | insurance company and maybe 20 percent real estate. | 保险公司和20%的房地产 |
| 690 | And then we recruited, we believe, the best insurance team in the industry. | 然后我们招募了,我们相信,这个行业最好的保险团队。 |
| 691 | 一个叫Mark Grandison的人 经营着一家叫Arch Capital集团的公司 | |
| 692 | And then his protege, David Gansburg, Lucy Faito from | 然后他的徒弟大卫・甘斯堡 露西・辉托 |
| 693 | she was the former vice chairman and general counsel of AIG. | 她是AIG的前副主席兼总顾问. |
| 694 | We have a team that you would normally put into a 50, | 我们有一个团队 你通常会投入到50, |
| 695 | 100 billion dollar insurance operation running a, you know, | 1000亿美元 保险业务,你知道, |
| 696 | not quite two billion dollar capital insurance company. | 不是20亿美元的资本保险公司 |
| 697 | And we think we can do really interesting things with that team. | 我们认为,我们可以做 真正有趣的事情与团队。 |
| 698 | We think we could run a very profitable, especially insurance company. | 我们认为我们可以经营一个很赚钱的公司,特别是保险公司。 |
| 699 | And then Pershing Square is going to manage the assets | 然后Pershing广场将管理资产 |
| 700 | much the same way Buffett has done. | 和巴菲特一样 |
| 701 | We've taken 100, you know, the moment we close on the insurer in June, | 我们花了100美元,你知道, 当我们关闭 保险公司在6月, |
| 702 | we sold all their fixed income kind of intermediate | 我们卖了他们所有固定收入的中间 |
| 703 | and longer term fixed income assets, | 和长期固定收入资产, |
| 704 | invested the money in short term treasuries. | 短期内投资了这笔钱 |
| 705 | And then we took a portion of the the equity the insurer | 然后我们把股本的一部分 保险人 |
| 706 | invested in a common stock portfolio, again, some of the best businesses in the world. | 投资一个共同的股票组合, 再一次,一些最好的企业 在世界上。 |
| 707 | There are very few examples. | 例子很少。 |
| 708 | You know, one interesting question is why hasn't someone replicated | 你知道,一个有趣的问题是 为什么没有人复制 |
| 709 | what Buffett has done before? | 巴菲特以前做过什么? |
| 710 | Well, I guess Apollo. | 我想是阿波罗 |
| 711 | No, very different, very different. | 不,很不一样,很不一样。 |
| 712 | So we're doing something very different from Apollo or even Brookfield or KKR | 所以我们正在做一些 与阿波罗,甚至布鲁克菲尔德或KKR非常不同的事情 |
| 713 | and others, Ares, for example. | 以阿瑞斯为例。 |
| 714 | Apollo bought a life insurance company that issues kind of fixed | 阿波罗买了一家人寿保险公司 发行一种固定 |
| 715 | annuities and used as used it sort of as a financing vehicle, right? | 年金和用来作为融资工具 对吧? |
| 716 | Issuing fixed costs, low cost liabilities | 发放固定费用、低费用负债 |
| 717 | and then investing the money in, you know, opportunistically in private credit | 然后把钱投资到私人信贷中 |
| 718 | using a decent amount of leverage and | 利用相当数量的杠杆 |
| 719 | taking that spread with some leverage and generating an attractive return on capital. | 以一定的杠杆来传播,并产生有吸引力的资本回报。 |
| 720 | We bought a specialty insurer and reinsurer that actually takes insurance risks, | 我们买了一个专业的保险人和再保险人 实际上承担保险风险, |
| 721 | property casualty and type risks. | 财产伤亡和类型风险。 |
| 722 | And we're you know, we're not it's not a levered spread business. | 而且我们知道,我们不是 杠杆传播业务。 |
| 723 | It's a business of, you know, taking on various profitable, | 这是一种生意,你知道, 承担各种盈利, |
| 724 | you know, hopefully profitable risks | 你知道,希望有利可图的风险 |
| 725 | and then using the permanent capital of the insurer to compound over time. | 并使用保险人的永久资本进行长期复合。 |
| 726 | But much, much lower leverage than a than one of these credit strategies. | 但是,比这些信贷策略中的一种要低得多。 |
| 727 | Hmm. | 是吗? |
| 728 | Now, you mentioned X earlier. | 你刚才提到了X |
| 729 | You are very public and visible. | 你非常公开和引人注目。 |
| 730 | Why is that a good thing? | 为什么这是好事? |
| 731 | One is just sort of inherent to who I am. | 一种只是我的固有身份。 |
| 732 | You can go back to my high school yearbook. | 你可以回我的高中年鉴。 |
| 733 | It said it said a closed mouth. | 上面说嘴闭着 |
| 734 | A friend of mine wrote this little epithet, said, you know, Bill Ackman, | 我的一个朋友写了这篇小说 说,你知道,比尔・阿克曼, |
| 735 | a closed mouth gathers no foot. | 闭口不收脚. |
| 736 | So I was always also I think I got most verbal | 我总是觉得自己最能说话 |
| 737 | something like this as my how people thought of me back then. | 就像我当时的人那样 |
| 738 | So did you get very did you get very little attention from your parents | 所以,你得到非常 你得到很少的注意 从你的父母 |
| 739 | when you were little? | 你小时候? |
| 740 | No, I got plenty of attention. | 不,我得到了很多关注。 |
| 741 | It was more that they would say I never listened than then | 他们更说我从来没有听过 |
| 742 | that whether they listened to me. | 他们是否听我的。 |
| 743 | But it was always important. | 但它总是很重要。 |
| 744 | My my principal driver in life has been I wanted to get to a place of independence | 我人生中的主要车手是 我想到独立的地方 |
| 745 | so I could do what I wanted to do, so I could say what I wanted to say. | 所以我可以做我想做的事, 所以我可以说我想说的话。 |
| 746 | And so always free speech was kind of important to me. | 言论自由对我很重要 |
| 747 | I I went on X, actually, Steven Pinker, you know, the | 我上了X,其实,史蒂芬·平克,你知道, |
| 748 | intellectual Harvard professor, I met him at a dinner party. | 哈佛大学知识分子教授,我在晚宴上见过他. |
| 749 | And he's like, Bill, you have to be on X. | 他就像,比尔, 你必须在X。 |
| 750 | And I'm like, why? | 而我喜欢,为什么? |
| 751 | He says, well, actually, there are incredible | 他说,事实上,有不可思议的 |
| 752 | conversations happening on X. | 对话在X上进行. |
| 753 | And this is where I could learn most of my information. | 这就是我可以了解大部分信息的地方。 |
| 754 | I follow a group of interesting people. | 我跟着一群有趣的人 |
| 755 | And so I went on X more as a to learn. | 所以,我继续X作为学习。 |
| 756 | I did my first tweet at some point, and then I noticed I had 25,000 | 我做了我的第一个微博 在某点, 然后我注意到我有25,000 |
| 757 | followers. | 追随者。 |
| 758 | And I had maybe done one. | 我也许做了一个。 |
| 759 | How many have you got now? | 你现在有多少人? |
| 760 | One tweet, just shy of three million. | 一个推特,只是害羞300万。 |
| 761 | And then I started getting, you know, I was always passionate about issues | 然后我开始,你知道, 我总是热衷于问题 |
| 762 | or politics or events, but I started sort of sharing them. | 政治或事件, 但我开始有点分享它们。 |
| 763 | And and it's actually very valuable. | 它实际上非常宝贵。 |
| 764 | You you have people who agree with you, people who don't. | 你有的人同意你, 的人不同意。 |
| 765 | And you can learn from both. | 你可以从两者中学习。 |
| 766 | And I I use X in kind of an interesting way in that I try in every issue | 我用X是一种有趣的方法 我在每个问题上都尝试 |
| 767 | to get find the most articulate, thoughtful person on one side of the issue | 找到问题一方最清晰、最周到的人 |
| 768 | and then the same on the other side of the issue. | 问题的另一边也是如此 |
| 769 | And I think it's very difficult to read every, you know, every owner of a media | 我觉得很难看每个媒体的老板 |
| 770 | property views the right of ownership to kind of shape, you know, | 财产看所有权 类型形状,你知道, |
| 771 | the zeitgeist in some kind of way. | 以某种方式说,是泽吉主义者。 |
| 772 | So every every media, I don't know that there's any media property | 所以每个媒体 我不知道有什么媒体财产 |
| 773 | where their intent is, let's just come out with the absolute truth. | 在他们的意图, 让我们只是得出绝对的真理。 |
| 774 | Usually, you know, the owner has a political bias or agenda, | 通常,你知道,主人 有政治偏见或议程, |
| 775 | which is why it's actually quite powerful to have an open playing field | 这就是为什么它实际上相当强大 有一个开放的竞技场 |
| 776 | where you can select who you want to listen to. | 您可以选择要听谁。 |
| 777 | Now, most people, I think, psychologically like to hear from people | 现在,大多数人,我认为, 心理上喜欢听到人 |
| 778 | who agree with them. | 他们同意他们的意见。 |
| 779 | I like to hear from people who agree with me. | 我喜欢听到有人同意我 |
| 780 | I also like to hear from people who disagree. | 我也喜欢听到有人不同意。 |
| 781 | So I've actually found it from an investment perspective. | 因此我从投资的角度找到了它。 |
| 782 | It's been one of my best sources of ideas, understanding what's going on in the world. | 它一直是我最优秀的思想来源之一,了解了世界的变迁. |
| 783 | And then from just being a citizen in the world, | 然后从一个公民的世界, |
| 784 | understanding important issues and hearing different perspectives. | 理解重要问题并听取不同观点。 |
| 785 | So I like it. | 所以我喜欢 |
| 786 | And then I'm now part of the conversation, which is which. | 然后,我现在是对话的一部分,这就是。 |
| 787 | So I agree. | 所以,我同意这一点。 |
| 788 | I also think there is something like the objective truth. | 我也认为有类似客观事实的东西。 |
| 789 | Do you think philosophically, the society is going in that direction? | 你觉得社会会朝这个方向发展吗? |
| 790 | Or what do you think? | 或者你觉得呢? |
| 791 | I don't know that society is going to the objective truth. | 我不知道社会会走向客观真理. |
| 792 | I think that the social media, unfortunately, is I mean, | 我认为社交媒体,不幸的是, 我的意思是, |
| 793 | why is the world so divided? | 为什么世界如此分裂? |
| 794 | I think the answer, I mean, we probably have to blame Facebook | 我觉得答案,我的意思是, 我们可能不得不责怪Facebook |
| 795 | and other social media because, you know, the the the dopamine is released | 和其他社交媒体 因为 多巴胺的释放 |
| 796 | and the advertising profits are released based on the amount of time | 广告利润根据时间量发放 |
| 797 | someone spends on the app. | 有人花在应用程序上。 |
| 798 | And what people figured out is that, you know, | 人们知道,你知道, |
| 799 | getting triggering people is a way to keep them engaged. | 激怒人们是让他们保持接触的一种方式。 |
| 800 | And the nature of social media today tends to push people | 而当今社交媒体的性质 往往推人 |
| 801 | to believe even stronger in whatever views they came to the the app with. | 更能相信他们提出的观点 |
| 802 | You know, I've encouraged Elon on Twitter a couple of times. | 我在推特上鼓励过艾隆几次 |
| 803 | Maybe I need to push him a little more privately. | 也许我需要把他推开一点 |
| 804 | I do think there should be a button on every every time you read a tweet. | 每次你读到微博时, |
| 805 | You should be able to push a button to find the best argument. | 你应该能按下按钮 找到最好的论据 |
| 806 | You know, who's the most followed person who's had the most | 你知道,谁是最跟随的人 谁拥有最多的 |
| 807 | or maybe the most liked alternative argument for the same subject? | 或者说,也许最喜欢的关于同一主题的备选论点? |
| 808 | So that I think it's very helpful to people to hear | 所以,我觉得它非常 帮助人们听到 |
| 809 | people make the case for the other side. | 人们为对方辩护 |
| 810 | Unfortunately, people tend to go to, you know, | 不幸的是,人们倾向于去,你知道, |
| 811 | they'll go to Fox or they'll go to CNN or they'll go to whatever they're. | 他们会去福克斯 或者他们会去CNN 或者他们会去任何他们是什么。 |
| 812 | What's the what's the key to keeping an open mind? | 如何是开悟之关键? |
| 813 | You have to believe that it's important. | 你必须相信这很重要 |
| 814 | I'm never convinced. | 我从不相信 |
| 815 | I always want to hear the other side. | 我一直想听到对方的声音 |
| 816 | You know, do you take it in properly? | 你知道,你接受得对吗? |
| 817 | I do my best to. | 我尽力了 |
| 818 | Yes. | 对 |
| 819 | And investing, by the way, what's the best way to get conviction | 顺便说一句,投资是获得信念的最佳方法 |
| 820 | and investment idea? | 投资的想法? |
| 821 | Find the best short seller in something that you own. | 在你拥有的东西中找到最好的短卖家. |
| 822 | And hear their arguments. | 并听其辩. |
| 823 | If you can rebut each of their arguments, | 如果你能反驳他们每一个论点 |
| 824 | then you can feel more confident in your investment. | 这样你就能更有信心地投资了 |
| 825 | And the same thing should be true for your other views. | 你的其他观点也应该如此 |
| 826 | Find the person who makes the best case for why you're wrong. | 找到最能说明你为什么错的人 |
| 827 | And then either they convince you and you're wrong | 他们要么说服你 要么你错了 |
| 828 | or you can carefully rebut each of the various arguments. | 或者你可以仔细反驳各种论点。 |
| 829 | What enables you to get to, I think it enables the best hope | 是什么让你去, 我认为它使最好的希望 |
| 830 | we have to get to the truth is hearing from all sides | 我们要知道真相 方方面面都听到了 |
| 831 | and then sorting through who's got the better argument. | 然后整理谁有更好的论据。 |
| 832 | Why were you so upset about the situation at Harvard? | 你为什么对哈佛的情况这么生气? |
| 833 | So one, you know, you go, you spend a meaningful part | 所以,你知道,你去, 你花费一个有意义的部分 |
| 834 | of your life at a university at a kind of pretty important time. | 在相当重要的时刻 在大学里生活 |
| 835 | So, you know, I went to Harvard College. | 所以,你知道,我上过哈佛大学。 |
| 836 | I also went to Harvard Business School at six meaningful years | 我也在哈佛商学院读了六年 |
| 837 | of my life, some of the best every year of my life is a great year. | 我生命中每年最美好的一年 |
| 838 | But, you know, there's a critical time. | 但是,你知道,有一个关键时刻。 |
| 839 | So you have a certain affection and a loyalty to to to a university. | 所以你对大学有某种感情和忠诚 |
| 840 | And, you know, I would I show up on the Harvard campus | 你知道,我会出现在哈佛大学 |
| 841 | a couple of times a year. | 一年两次 |
| 842 | I meet students, teach a couple of classes, things like this. | 我结识学生,教几个课,这样的事情. |
| 843 | I've been sure you're giving them some money to give them some money, too. | 我肯定你给他们一些钱 给他们一些钱,太。 |
| 844 | And then October 7th happened, which and then on the morning of October 8th, | 之后10月7日发生了,10月8日早上, |
| 845 | while there were terrorists still on Israeli soil, killing people. | 在以色列领土上仍有恐怖分子,杀人。 |
| 846 | Thirty four Harvard student organizations came out and said | 三十四个哈佛学生组织出来说 |
| 847 | that Israel was solely responsible for the acts of Hamas of the last 24 hours. | 以色列应对哈马斯过去24小时的行为负全部责任。 |
| 848 | And thirty four student organizations, you know, sign this this sort of letter. | 还有34个学生组织,你知道的, 签署这种信件。 |
| 849 | And I'm like, well, this doesn't I was sort of very puzzled by this. | 我很喜欢,嗯,这不 我有点非常困惑。 |
| 850 | And I went up to the campus to try to understand, | 我去了校园 试图理解, |
| 851 | you know, sort of what's going on. | 你知道,排序 发生了什么事。 |
| 852 | And the kind of more I I dug on the topic, | 我在这个话题上挖的更多 |
| 853 | I started learning about this oppressor oppressed narrative very naively. | 我开始很天真地了解这种压迫者被压迫的叙事。 |
| 854 | I had not even heard of people in this, | 我甚至没有听说过人在这个, |
| 855 | but they started talking about, you know, how DEI is sort of part of the web | 但他们开始谈论,你知道, 如何DEI是 排序网络的一部分 |
| 856 | of this conversation. | 这段对话。 |
| 857 | And then, you know, professors behind closed doors would tell me, Bill, | 然后,你知道,教授 闭门告诉我,比尔, |
| 858 | this is not a place where you can speak freely. | 这不是一个你可以自由说话的地方。 |
| 859 | You know, I would say among the top professors at Harvard would say this to me. | 你知道,我会说,在哈佛的顶尖教授中 会告诉我这一点。 |
| 860 | So I'm like, what kind of education can you have if the professors are afraid | 所以我想,如果教授们害怕,你能接受什么样的教育? |
| 861 | to speak their points of view, the students are afraid to speak their points of view. | 学生们不敢说他们的观点。 |
| 862 | And there's certain accepted points of view. | 还有某些公认的观点. |
| 863 | And then we're meritocracy, you know, Harvard is starting to admit students | 然后,我们是精英,你知道,哈佛 开始录取学生 |
| 864 | without, you know, kind of giving up on meritocracy and excellence, | 没有,你知道,那种放弃 优异和优秀, |
| 865 | which is also not a good strategy for a best in class university. | 这也是在班级大学中最好的策略 |
| 866 | So I would say, why do they get upset? | 所以我会说,他们为什么生气? |
| 867 | Because something very important to me. | 因为对我很重要的事 |
| 868 | I watched it diminish in a meaningful way. | 我亲眼目睹它以有意义的方式减弱。 |
| 869 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 870 | You mentioned that your family | 你提到你的家人 |
| 871 | went through a tragedy earlier in the year. | 今年早些时候经历了一场悲剧。 |
| 872 | Is that something you want to talk about? | 你想谈这个吗? |
| 873 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 874 | So my daughter, my 26 year old daughter, had a brain hemorrhage. | 所以我的女儿,我26岁的女儿, 有脑出血。 |
| 875 | She had a weakness of something called arterial venous malformation, | 她有一个弱点的东西 所谓的动脉毒液畸形, |
| 876 | something we could only have been aware of had she had an MRI, | 如果她有核磁共振 我们只能知道 |
| 877 | which she never had because she never had really any symptoms. | 她从来没有过 因为她没有真正的症状。 |
| 878 | And it happened early in the morning when she was alone in her apartment. | 而事情发生在清晨,当时她独自一人在她的公寓里. |
| 879 | And we didn't discover her until late at night | 我们直到深夜才发现她 |
| 880 | when she wasn't responding to repeated attempts for us to reach her. | 她没有回应我们一再试图联系她 |
| 881 | And, you know, large brain hemorrhage, | 而且,你知道, 大脑出血, |
| 882 | a lot of pressure on the brain for almost 19 hours. | 大脑承受了将近19个小时的压力 |
| 883 | You know, most people die. | 你知道,大多数人都死了。 |
| 884 | And even the ones you save, you know, they they they die later in a nursing home | 即使是你救的人,你知道, 他们死后在养老院 |
| 885 | because and sort of made it my one of my important life goals to bring her back. | 因为这是我重要的人生目标之一 让她复活 |
| 886 | That that has been a big overhang in the last seven months. | 这在过去7个月中是一个很大的悬念。 |
| 887 | But you're funding some new initiatives in this space. | 但你资助了一些新的倡议 在这个空间。 |
| 888 | You know, the first focus has been her. | 你知道,第一个焦点是她。 |
| 889 | But the more I learned about brain rehab, recovery, strokes, rehabilitation, | 但我越了解大脑恢复 康复 中风 康复 |
| 890 | the more I realized how little we've done in this area, | 我越意识到我们在这方面做得很少 |
| 891 | because many neurosurgeons and neurologists are sort of nihilists. | 因为许多神经外科医生和神经学家都是虚无主义者。 |
| 892 | They don't really believe that they can do much for patients. | 他们不相信自己能为病人做很多事 |
| 893 | And there's so much that can be done. | 亦复如是种种法门. |
| 894 | And, you know, my daughter, who, you know, lost | 而且,你知道,我的女儿, 你知道,她失去了 |
| 895 | pretty much, you know, basic function, ability to walk, ability to speak, | 差不多,你知道,基本功能, 走路的能力,说话的能力, |
| 896 | ability to see is, you know, regaining function. | 视觉能力是,你知道, 恢复功能。 |
| 897 | She's cognitively, as far as I can tell, fine. | 据我所知,她在认知上很好 |
| 898 | She's relearning how to speak | 她正在学习如何说话 |
| 899 | and she's learning again how to walk. | 她又学会了走路 |
| 900 | And I'm confident we're to get her back. | 我相信我们会救回她 |
| 901 | You know, biggest challenge right now is that the optic nerve damage | 现在最大的挑战就是视神经损伤 |
| 902 | from the pressure on the brain that has caused her to lose, you know, | 因为大脑的压力 导致她失去了,你知道, |
| 903 | probably 98 percent of her of her vision. | 大概是她视线的98% |
| 904 | But even there, I'm optimistic, you know, spent a lot of time | 但即使在那里,我很乐观, 你知道,花了很多时间 |
| 905 | in the last few months meeting with all these sort of brain | 在过去的几个月里 与所有这些大脑会面 |
| 906 | computer interface companies, obviously Neuralink being the most famous. | 计算机界面公司,显然Neuralink是最著名的。 |
| 907 | But there's some other very promising | 但还有别的很有前途的 |
| 908 | lower intervention technologies. | 降低干预技术。 |
| 909 | And this will be a period, you know, AI is going to enable us. | 这将是一个时期,你知道,AI 会让我们。 |
| 910 | We're going to be able to get more signal from the brain. | 我们能从大脑得到更多的信号。 |
| 911 | And we're going to be able to interpret that signal much more | 我们就能更清楚地解读这个信号 |
| 912 | effectively than we had before. | 和以前一样有效 |
| 913 | And, you know, the blind will see again and people have not been able to walk. | 而且,你知道,盲人会再次看到,人们已经无法行走。 |
| 914 | You know, so to speak, paraplegics, I believe, will walk again. | 你知道,所以说, 瘫痪,我相信, 会再次走。 |
| 915 | And that's going to be it's a matter of not months, | 而这将是一个问题 它不是几个月, |
| 916 | but years, but not too many years. | 但几年,但不会太多年。 |
| 917 | So tragedy. | 如此悲剧。 |
| 918 | You know, I have optimism that she's going to recover. | 我乐观地认为她会康复 |
| 919 | And I have I'm excited about the potential. | 我对潜力很兴奋 |
| 920 | And, you know, one of the fortunate things about my day job is | 而且,你知道,一个幸运的事情 关于我的日常工作是 |
| 921 | it's enabled me to, one, learn about lots of things, | 它使我,一, 学习很多事情, |
| 922 | to I've got certain skills that apply real estate and otherwise. | 我有一些技能 应用房地产或其他。 |
| 923 | And we've been able to assemble a three point four acre site in New York | 我们在纽约组装了三点四英亩的土地 |
| 924 | with a four hundred thousand square foot biotech building. | 有40万平方英尺的生物技术大楼 |
| 925 | And then I put out a tweet, the power of Twitter. | 然后我发布了一个推特,推特的力量。 |
| 926 | And I'm recruiting incredible people to run this institute. | 我正在招募令人难以置信的人来管理这个学院。 |
| 927 | There are a lot of people who've been I mean, there's almost no one | 很多人,我意思是,几乎没有人 |
| 928 | who doesn't have a parent or a sibling or someone who's had either an accident, | 没有父母或兄弟 或发生意外的人 |
| 929 | a stroke, you know, gone to war. | 中风,你知道,去打仗。 |
| 930 | And, you know, I've taken a bullet | 而且,你知道,我已经 子弹 |
| 931 | or Alzheimer's or cognitive decline. | 或阿尔茨海默症或认知下降。 |
| 932 | And this is something, you know, the brain is sort of everything. | 这是某种东西,你知道, 大脑是某种所有的东西。 |
| 933 | And we've not spent enough time, energy, resources. | 我们没有花足够的时间 精力和资源 |
| 934 | And there are lots of constraints in the way the funding environment works for science. | 而资助环境为科学工作的方式也有许多限制. |
| 935 | So we're going to put a lot of resources into answering these questions. | 因此我们将投入大量资源来回答这些问题. |
| 936 | And actually, New York City is a good place to do it. | 实际上,纽约市是一个很好的场所。 |
| 937 | Yeah, sure. | 当然 |
| 938 | Well, thanks for sharing. | 谢谢你的分享 |
| 939 | I am a father of three kids in the same age. | 我是一个父亲 三个孩子在同一年龄。 |
| 940 | But I don't think I can imagine what you've been through here. | 但我无法想象你在这里经历了什么 |
| 941 | It's been it's a big deal. | 一直以来都是个大事 |
| 942 | Bill, what's your biggest personal failure in life? | 比尔,你人生中最大的个人失败是什么? |
| 943 | Biggest personal failure? | 最大的个人失败? |
| 944 | You know, I'm sort of a person who I'm very happy where I am. | 你知道,我是那种人 谁我很快乐,我在哪里。 |
| 945 | So I kind of view failures that I've had over time as, you know, | 所以,我看到了一些失败 我经历了一段时间,你知道, |
| 946 | if you think about the events that caused me to sit across from you today, | 如果你想到今天我坐在你对面的事件 |
| 947 | you know, had I gone left at one point instead of right, | 你知道,如果我离开 在一个点而不是右边, |
| 948 | it probably wouldn't be wouldn't be here. | 它可能不会在这里。 |
| 949 | Do you have a systematic way of being grateful? | 你有系统的方式感激吗? |
| 950 | Not systematic. | 不系统. |
| 951 | I'm just inherently that way. | 我只是天生就那样 |
| 952 | Well, I would say I have a ritual I go through every morning, | 好吧,我会说我有一个仪式 我每天早上通过, |
| 953 | which is really interesting to make a list of like, yeah, | 这真的很有趣 列出一个像,是的, |
| 954 | I just go through the things I'm really grateful for. | 我只是通过我真的很感谢的东西。 |
| 955 | And it takes like one minute. | 需要一分钟 |
| 956 | And it's just it totally reframes my day. | 它只是它完全 重塑了我的一天。 |
| 957 | Yeah, but I feel that way every day. | 是的 但我每天都有这种感觉 |
| 958 | Obviously. | 很明显 |
| 959 | But I'm an optimist. | 但我是一个乐观主义者。 |
| 960 | Interestingly, and you interview a lot of people. | 有趣的是,你采访了很多人。 |
| 961 | Any of the people you've interviewed who are successful, | 你所采访的任何一个成功的人 |
| 962 | are they that are they pessimist? | 他们是悲观主义者吗? |
| 963 | I don't think there's one. | 我觉得没有 |
| 964 | No. | 没有 |
| 965 | OK, so I think optimism is really important. | 好吧,所以我认为乐观是非常重要的。 |
| 966 | Very. | 甚处来. |
| 967 | And I'm also, you know, grateful, appreciative. | 我也,你知道, 感激,感激。 |
| 968 | I don't do it systematically, but it's part of my. | 我不系统化地这样做,但它是属于我的一部分。 |
| 969 | Yes, I love every day. | 是的,我每天都爱 |
| 970 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 971 | What's the one thing about you that people don't know? | 别人不知道你是什么? |
| 972 | I'm like the most transparent guy in America. | 我就像美国最透明的人 |
| 973 | I don't know what the what is the one thing about me? | 我不知道什么是我唯一的东西? |
| 974 | I'm. | 我对 |
| 975 | I'm actually a really good volleyball player. | 我其实是一个非常好的排球运动员。 |
| 976 | I thought you were a tennis player. | 我以为你是网球运动员 |
| 977 | Yes. | 对 |
| 978 | And I'm a good tennis player. | 我是一个很好的网球运动员。 |
| 979 | I don't know what what's the one thing. | 我不知道什么是单一的东西。 |
| 980 | I don't know whether it is. | 我不知道这是不是。 |
| 981 | That's a good question. | 问曰. |
| 982 | When you look at the books you read, | 当你看你读的书, |
| 983 | what which book has taught you the most? | 哪本书教你最多的? |
| 984 | I don't know if there's one book that's taught me the most, | 我不知道有没有一本书 教我最多, |
| 985 | but there's one book that had a very significant impact on me. | 但有一本书对我有很大影响 |
| 986 | Theory of Justice by John Rawls, | 约翰·罗尔斯的正义理论 |
| 987 | which is a book that sets up a framework | 这是一本建立框架的书 |
| 988 | for how to think about the world and obligations and things like this. | 如何思考世界 义务和诸如此类的事情。 |
| 989 | Basically, the premise of the book is everyone should do a thought experiment. | 基本上,这本书的前提是每个人都应该做一个思想实验. |
| 990 | Kind of go back to before you're born | 回到你出生之前的样子 |
| 991 | and you're about to be born. | 你马上就要出生了 |
| 992 | Is your mother a drug addict in the Bronx? | 你妈妈在布朗克斯吸毒吗? |
| 993 | Are you born in Sub-Saharan Africa? | 你出生在撒哈拉以南非洲吗? |
| 994 | Are you going to show up in Iran? | 你打算去伊朗吗? |
| 995 | Or are you going to grow up in the Upper East Side of New York | 或者你会在纽约上东区长大 |
| 996 | and dad's an investment banker? | 爸爸是投资银行家? |
| 997 | In that you don't know where you're going to land. | 于中不识何地落地. |
| 998 | How would you organize? | 你会如何组织? |
| 999 | What's the fairest way to organize the world | 组织世界最公平的方法是什么? |
| 1000 | before knowing what your personal outcome is? | 在知道你的个人结果之前? |
| 1001 | And I think it's a very interesting way to think about | 我觉得这是个很有趣的思考方式 |
| 1002 | how the world should be organized. | 如何组织世界。 |
| 1003 | People tend to frame things based on their personal perspective. | 人们往往根据个人的视角来陷害事物. |
| 1004 | How should the world be organized? | 如何组织世界? |
| 1005 | I would say so far, capitalism is the best system that we've we've come up with. | 我想说,到目前为止,资本主义是我们提出的最好的制度。 |
| 1006 | You know, I think | 你知道吗,我想 |
| 1007 | how should the world be organized? | 世界应如何组织? |
| 1008 | It's a pretty big question. | 这是一个相当大的问题。 |
| 1009 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1010 | Look, I like our system. | 我喜欢我们的系统 |
| 1011 | You know, I like, you know, the basic | 你知道,我喜欢,你知道,基础 |
| 1012 | constitutional rights, Bill of Rights type | 宪法权利,权利法案类型 |
| 1013 | things that we've been offered. | 我们得到的东西。 |
| 1014 | And I think it's really important that we we protect them. | 我认为我们保护他们是非常重要的。 |
| 1015 | You know, I think it's very important that the most powerful country | 你知道,我认为这是非常重要的, 最强大的国家 |
| 1016 | in the world is a benign actor that yes, it has to. | 在世界上是一个良性的角色 是的,它必须。 |
| 1017 | Yes, we're I think America's first is is is a benign actor now. | 是的,我们是我觉得美国的第一个是 一个良性演员了。 |
| 1018 | I think the president United States is actually trying to do good. | 我认为美国总统实际上是在努力做好事。 |
| 1019 | You know, I think a lot of people have objected to, you know, | 你知道,我想很多人反对,你知道, |
| 1020 | objected to any wars that are, you know, where it doesn't impact US soil. | 反对任何战争,你知道, 在那里它不会影响美国的土地。 |
| 1021 | But, you know, in a world where people can get access to nuclear weapons, | 但是,在人们能够获得核武器的世界里, |
| 1022 | you know, Iran was getting closer and closer to a place | 你知道,伊朗越来越接近一个地方 |
| 1023 | where we couldn't do anything about their nuclear nuclear capability. | 在那里,我们不能做任何事情 对于他们的核核能力。 |
| 1024 | North Korea, we allowed North Korea to get to a place | 朝鲜,我们允许朝鲜到一个地方 |
| 1025 | where we couldn't do anything about their nuclear capability | 他们的核能力我们无能为力 |
| 1026 | because we allowed them to build a, you know, | 因为我们允许他们建造一个,你知道的, |
| 1027 | their proximity to South Korea enabled them to, you know, | 他们离韩国很近 能够让他们... |
| 1028 | effectively scared us from trying to intervene in their nuclear program. | 我们实际上害怕我们试图干预他们的核计划。 |
| 1029 | You know, Iran has sort of made it very clear that they | 你知道,伊朗已经非常明确地说,他们 |
| 1030 | they're not operating with any of the same kind of life, | 他们没有 任何一种相同的生活, |
| 1031 | liberty, pursuit of happiness principles that we operate under | 自由,追求幸福的原则 我们运行在 |
| 1032 | the way they treat their people, their women, their etc. | 他们对待人民、妇女、等等的方式。 |
| 1033 | You wouldn't want someone like that to get in effect absolute power. | 你不会希望这样的人 得到绝对的权力。 |
| 1034 | You know, AI creates the same challenge. | AI创造了同样的挑战 |
| 1035 | I don't know that we can slow down on AI because imagine if, | 我不知道我们能减慢AI的速度 因为想象一下 |
| 1036 | you know, one of our enemies gets to super intelligence. | 你知道,我们的敌人之一 得到超级智能。 |
| 1037 | So I think it's really important. | 所以我觉得这很重要。 |
| 1038 | You know, the I think ultimately the US is a benign actor | 你知道,我认为最终 美国是一个良性演员 |
| 1039 | globally, an imperfect. | 全球范围的不完美。 |
| 1040 | But, you know, I think our our goals and principles are are good. | 但是,你知道,我认为我们的目标和原则是好的。 |
| 1041 | I think it's important we maintain our preeminent military | 我认为保持我们最杰出的军队很重要 |
| 1042 | AI and nuclear capability to deter, | AI和核威慑能力, |
| 1043 | you know, people who want to kill us or, you know, I think Western ideals | 你知道,人们谁想杀了我们 或者,你知道,我认为西方的理想 |
| 1044 | are better than, you know, some of the, | 胜过,你知道,一些, |
| 1045 | you know, the radical Islam, I think, is a real a real threat to to to the West. | 我认为,激进的伊斯兰教 是对西方的真正威胁 |
| 1046 | So in this complex world, what is your advice to young people? | 所以在这个复杂的世界里 你对年轻人有什么建议? |
| 1047 | My advice is it really matters who you hang out with when you're younger. | 我的建议是,你年轻时和谁在一起真的很重要 |
| 1048 | You tend to become or be inspired or otherwise by the people you hang out with. | 你往往会成为 或被激励 或其他你挂出的人。 |
| 1049 | I happened to when I was in high school, I hung out with kids who were | 我高中时碰巧 和孩子们一起玩 |
| 1050 | kind of competitive about lots of things, including school. | 有很多东西是竞争对手,包括学校 |
| 1051 | And as a result, you know, partly explains why I was a good student, | 结果,你知道,部分解释 为什么我是一个好学生, |
| 1052 | because I wanted to I was inherently sort of competitive and I wanted to get, | 因为我本想成为竞争对手 我想得到 |
| 1053 | I don't know, good grades that, you know, that was helpful to me in getting into a | 我不知道,好成绩,你知道, 这对我进入一个 |
| 1054 | good a good college. | 很好的大学 |
| 1055 | But, yeah, you learn the most from the people that you're you're closest to. | 但是,是的,你从你最接近的人那里学到的最多。 |
| 1056 | So I think that's a really important thing. | 所以我认为这是一件很重要的事。 |
| 1057 | I think, you know, it's interesting, you know, how how AI has become so powerful. | 我想,你知道,这很有趣, 你知道,AI是如何变得如此强大。 |
| 1058 | The answer is they've basically read a lot of books and read a lot of content. | 答案是他们基本上读了很多书,读了很多内容. |
| 1059 | That's what that's what training a model is. | 这就是训练一个模型的方法. |
| 1060 | I think the human brain is kind of similar. | 我觉得人类的大脑有点相似 |
| 1061 | And the way you train a human brain is by consuming as much information as you can. | 你训练人类大脑的方式 就是尽可能多地消耗信息。 |
| 1062 | So reading and pursuing what's interested you in pursuing what interests you so | 所以,阅读和追求什么你感兴趣的 追求什么你感兴趣的 |
| 1063 | that you you train the model. | 你训练模特儿 |
| 1064 | You know, I think you I think how do you get to super intelligence? | 你知道,我认为你 我认为你是如何得到 超级智能? |
| 1065 | I don't know any very intelligent person that hasn't read a ton. | 我不认识一个很聪明的人 没有读过一吨。 |
| 1066 | So I think that's a good place to go and focus on what you're passionate about. | 所以,我认为这是一个很好的地方去 并专注于你所热衷的。 |
| 1067 | If it's cars, fine. | 如果这是汽车,很好。 |
| 1068 | If it's, you know, military, if it's history, you know, so I think that's really, | 如果这是,你知道,军事, 如果这是历史,你知道, 所以我认为这是真的, |
| 1069 | really important. | 这很重要 |
| 1070 | And then get interested in understand nutrition, health, exercise, sleep. | 然后对了解营养,健康,运动,睡眠感兴趣. |
| 1071 | Don't consume a lot of alcohol. | 别喝太多酒 |
| 1072 | In fact, if you can just skip it, it's great. | 事实上,如果你可以跳过它,这是伟大的。 |
| 1073 | Sugar is poison. | 糖是毒药. |
| 1074 | Weightlifting is a really good thing to do. | 举重是件好事 |
| 1075 | It's good for confidence. | 益于信心. |
| 1076 | Good for appearance. | 不错的外表。 |
| 1077 | It's good for health. | 益于健康. |
| 1078 | So I would say, yeah, your your circle. | 所以我会说,是的,你的圈子。 |
| 1079 | Oh, you know, operate in such a fashion that, you know, when Warren Buffett came | 哦,你知道,运行的方式 这样,你知道,当沃伦巴菲特来 |
| 1080 | to speak at Harvard Business School, he said something that I thought was really, | 他在哈佛商学院演讲 他说了一些我觉得真的 |
| 1081 | really good advice. | 非常好的建议 |
| 1082 | He said, basically, if you want to be successful, there are a certain number of | 他说,基本上, 如果你想成功, 有一定数量 |
| 1083 | qualities that you need to have. | 你需要具备的品质。 |
| 1084 | Think of the people that you go to school with that you admire the most other than, | 想想你上学时最欣赏的人 |
| 1085 | you know, your ma or, you know, some Olympic athlete who's had to just focus on, | 你知道,你的妈妈,或者,你知道, 一些奥林匹克运动员谁的 不得不专注于, |
| 1086 | you know, or, you know, Michael Jordan, you know, basketball in order to achieve | 你知道,或者,你知道,迈克尔・乔丹, 你知道,篮球 为了达到 |
| 1087 | the greatness. | 伟大的。 |
| 1088 | Success depends on having certain human qualities, you know, showing up on time, | 成功取决于某些人的品质, 你知道,及时出现, |
| 1089 | you know, responding to people who reach out to you, doing the right thing when | 你知道,回应的人 谁联系你,做正确的事情,当 |
| 1090 | no one's watching. | 没人在看 |
| 1091 | All of these human character traits are things you can have tomorrow. | 所有这些人性特征都是你明天可以拥有的东西. |
| 1092 | It's just a decision you make. | 这只是你的决定 |
| 1093 | I want to be a good person. | 我想成为一个好人。 |
| 1094 | Whereas being Michael Jordan is going to be, you know, first of all, maybe, you | 迈克尔・乔丹会是, 你知道,首先,也许你 |
| 1095 | know, an N of one, but it requires enormous amounts of work to achieve it. | 要达到这个目标 需要大量的工作 |
| 1096 | Character doesn't require really any work. | 角色不需要任何工作。 |
| 1097 | It just requires sort of a decision. | 只是需要做个决定 |
| 1098 | I thought that was a really, really good advice. | 我认为这是个非常好的建议。 |
| 1099 | So you want to be a person that other people admire. | 所以你想成为别人崇拜的人 |
| 1100 | You want to be a person of character. | 你想成为个性化的人 |
| 1101 | You want to be a person that is noticed by your boss. | 你想成为一个被你老板注意的人 |
| 1102 | These qualities are ones that are totally achievable. | 这些品质是完全可以实现的。 |
| 1103 | So I think those would be a few things I would give. | 所以,我想这些是一些事情 我会给。 |
| 1104 | Oh, and then when you're one of the most important decisions you make is who you | 哦,然后当你是最重要的决定之一 就是你是谁 |
| 1105 | can spend the rest of your life with, like your partner, your wife, your, your | 与你的伴侣,你的妻子,你的妻子,你的 |
| 1106 | husband, be very thoughtful about that decision and don't rush into it, but | 老公,你对这个决定要体谅点 别冲动,但是... |
| 1107 | don't take too long to make it either. | 也不要花太长时间赶来 |
| 1108 | Great place to end. | 伟大的地方结束。 |
| 1109 | Big thanks. | 谢谢 |
| 1110 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1111 | Really hoped you liked the episode. | 真希望你喜欢这集 |
| 1112 | If you did, please like it, subscribe and put on the notification. | 如果你有,请喜欢它, 订阅和提交通知。 |
| 1113 | This really helps us to get new great guests. | 这真的帮助我们 得到新的伟大的客人。 |
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