彭博社报道：为什么美国经济感觉比看起来还要糟糕？
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | From 30,000 feet, the U.S. economy looks great. | 从3万英尺看,美国经济看起来棒极了. |
| 0:04 | We have a hot country. | 我们的国家很热 |
| 0:05 | I think we are in the acceleration phase. | 我认为我们正处于加速阶段。 |
| 0:07 | I think the market is going to go through the roof. | 我认为市场会穿过屋顶。 |
| 0:10 | The stock market is booming, consumer spending is strong, business investment is solid. | 股市兴旺,消费支出强劲,企业投资坚固. |
| 0:14 | Layoffs on the whole remain subdued. | 总的说,裁员仍然被压制。 |
| 0:17 | So it is a strong economy. | 因此,这是一个强大的经济。 |
| 0:19 | But come in for a landing and things on the ground look very different. | 但进来降落 地面上的东西看起来很不一样 |
| 0:24 | Every dollar counts. | 每一块钱都算数。 |
| 0:26 | Back to back hot inflation prints. | 回到后面的热通胀指纹。 |
展开字幕全文（142 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | From 30,000 feet, the U.S. economy looks great. | 从3万英尺看,美国经济看起来棒极了. |
| 2 | We have a hot country. | 我们的国家很热 |
| 3 | I think we are in the acceleration phase. | 我认为我们正处于加速阶段。 |
| 4 | I think the market is going to go through the roof. | 我认为市场会穿过屋顶。 |
| 5 | The stock market is booming, consumer spending is strong, business investment is solid. | 股市兴旺,消费支出强劲,企业投资坚固. |
| 6 | Layoffs on the whole remain subdued. | 总的说,裁员仍然被压制。 |
| 7 | So it is a strong economy. | 因此,这是一个强大的经济。 |
| 8 | But come in for a landing and things on the ground look very different. | 但进来降落 地面上的东西看起来很不一样 |
| 9 | Every dollar counts. | 每一块钱都算数。 |
| 10 | Back to back hot inflation prints. | 回到后面的热通胀指纹。 |
| 11 | Prices are the big concern right now. | 价格是最大的关注 现在。 |
| 12 | Inflation is still stubbornly higher than the Fed would like it to be. | 通货膨胀仍然比美联储所希望的要高。 |
| 13 | Looking at prices now compared to what they were before the pandemic, | 现在看价格 与流行前相比, |
| 14 | groceries are up over 30 percent, rents up by over a third. | 杂货店涨了30%以上 租了三分之一以上 |
| 15 | You've seen car insurance rise by nearly 50 percent and energy prices are even higher than that. | 你见过汽车保险上涨近50% 能源价格甚至更高 |
| 16 | It looks a little bit ugly if you don't have a job right now, if you don't own a house and you want to. | 如果你现在没有工作,没有房子,你想工作,那看起来有点丑 |
| 17 | That's put affordability top of mind for voters. | 这也是选民最能承受的 |
| 18 | And both parties are leaning into economic populism. | 而双方都倾向于经济民粹主义. |
| 19 | Affordability has become the main issue this election season. | 支付能力已成为本选举季的主要问题. |
| 20 | You saw that last year it actually helped multiple Democrats win elections because they were addressing that. | 你看见去年它实际上帮助了多位民主党人赢得选举, 因为他们正在解决这个问题。 |
| 21 | A mandate for a city we can afford. | 一个我们能负担的城市的任务。 |
| 22 | Trump and his administration have had to pivot and focus on that | 特朗普和他的政府不得不把注意力放在 |
| 23 | and actually talk to voters to say, how are we going to help? | 和选民交谈 说,我们如何帮助? |
| 24 | We're in hustle culture. | 我们身处险境 |
| 25 | Everybody's trying to make ends meet. | 每个人都在努力维持生计 |
| 26 | You've got to work two jobs. | 得作两业. |
| 27 | It's like being the hamster on the wheel or a carrot in front of the donkey. | 如是轮上仓鼠或驴前胡萝卜. |
| 28 | You never get a chance to bite the carrot. | 你没机会咬胡萝卜 |
| 29 | The thing is, a lot of people seem to be spending through the pain. | 问题是,很多人似乎都在度过痛苦。 |
| 30 | What consumers are saying, people say they feel pretty bad. | 消费者说的,人们说 他们觉得非常糟糕。 |
| 31 | If you look at the actual hard spending numbers, consumers are still spending. | 如果你看看实际的硬支出数字,消费者仍然在花费. |
| 32 | There does seem to be a bit of a disconnect. | 似乎有点脱节 |
| 33 | So how can the U.S. economy look this good but feel so bad? | 那么,美国经济怎么看起来这么好,却感觉这么糟糕呢? |
| 34 | To understand where inflation is today, we need to rewind the clock a few years. | 为了了解通货膨胀今天在哪里,我们需要倒转时钟几年。 |
| 35 | COVID is down, but gas prices are up. | COVID下降,但天然气价格上升. |
| 36 | When the pandemic came, it messed up all of these supply chains. | 当大流行出现时,它破坏了所有这些供应链。 |
| 37 | And what we saw is when the economy reopened, there was this massive wave of consumer demand, which pushed up prices. | 我们所看到的是,当经济重新开放时, 出现了一股巨大的消费需求浪潮, 推高了价格。 |
| 38 | The sticker shock still lingers in part because the economy is facing other headwinds. | 由于经济面临其他头风,贴纸的冲击仍然持续存在。 |
| 39 | You had the war with Russia and Ukraine, and that caused fertilizer prices to go up. | 你和俄国和乌克兰开过战, 这导致化肥价格上升。 |
| 40 | Then you had tariffs, tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, which caused prices to increase or some goods to increase. | 然后你有关税,关税,对等关税,这导致物价上涨或一些商品上涨. |
| 41 | And now you have the war in Iran, causing energy prices to spike. | 现在你们在伊朗打仗 导致能源价格暴涨 |
| 42 | So that series of events have not allowed prices to come down or to allow the consumer to feel relief. | 因此,这一系列事件并没有让价格下降或者让消费者感到宽慰. |
| 43 | You can see this in the Consumer Price Index, a government gauge of inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. | 您可以在消费物价指数中看到这一点, 这是政府从劳工统计局得到的通胀量。 |
| 44 | Prices rose during COVID. | COVID期间价格上涨. |
| 45 | Then after peaking in 2022, price increases were slowing. | 随后在2022年达到顶峰后,物价上涨速度放缓. |
| 46 | Fast forward to 2026, the inflation rate was 2.4 percent. | 很快到2026年,通货膨胀率为2.4%。 |
| 47 | But more than six months into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, inflation has heated up. | 但美国-以色列与伊朗开战6个多月后,通货膨胀已经升温. |
| 48 | In September, it was 3.7 percent. | 9月,为3.7%. |
| 49 | And one commodity is at the center of both war and U.S. inflation. | 一种商品是战争和美国通货膨胀的中心。 |
| 50 | The rising cost of fuel, no relief for drivers across the country. | 燃料成本不断上涨,全国司机得不到缓解。 |
| 51 | Right now, diesel is the poster child. | 现在,柴油是海报的孩子。 |
| 52 | How high could it go? | 还能有多高? |
| 53 | The economy runs on diesel. | 经济以柴油为主. |
| 54 | Whether you are getting your packages from Amazon, a truck drove that, your groceries are being delivered by trucks. | 不管你从亚马逊得到你的包裹, 一辆卡车驱动的, 你的杂货是用卡车运送的。 |
| 55 | So that's going to impact consumers. | 这会影响消费者。 |
| 56 | Before the Iran wars, I was at $800, $1,200 a week at fuel. | 在伊朗战争之前,我每周有800美元,1200美元。 |
| 57 | I'm up to about $1,700, $1,800 now a week. | 我最多1700美元,现在每周1800美元。 |
| 58 | You just feel that pain at the pump. | 你只是感觉到泵上的痛苦 |
| 59 | Paul Ringgold is a church pastor and independent truck driver. | 保罗·林格德(Paul Ringgold)是一位教会牧师和独立卡车司机. |
| 60 | To survive, he's using every strategy at his disposal. | 为了生存,他正在运用他掌握的一切策略. |
| 61 | You try to drive within certain speeds so you're not consuming so much fuel, but that doesn't always work. | 你试着在一定的速度内开车 这样你就不会消耗那么多燃料 但这并不总有用 |
| 62 | You want to check your tire pressure, all of those things. | 你想检查你的轮胎压力, 所有这些东西。 |
| 63 | It matters where your money is going. | 这关乎你的钱去向。 |
| 64 | I would much rather have $500 in my pocket rather than a tank right now. | 我宁愿把500块放在口袋里 而不是现在的坦克里 |
| 65 | Consumer sentiment is bad right now in the U.S. | 现在美国消费者情绪不好 |
| 66 | If you look at the level of consumer sentiment going all the way back to 2008, | 如果你看看2008年的消费者情绪水平 |
| 67 | you'll see that it's lower now than what we saw during the pandemic and the financial crisis. | 你会看到,现在它比我们看到的低 在流行和金融危机。 |
| 68 | A big part of the problem is that Americans haven't been able to get ahead of inflation. | 问题的一大部分是美国人一直未能超越通货膨胀. |
| 69 | While pandemic restrictions eased, wages shot up as businesses scrambled to meet demand. | 虽然大流行病限制有所放松,但随着企业为满足需求而摇摆不定,工资也随之上涨。 |
| 70 | Then wage gains were eroded as inflation rocketed. | 然后,随着通货膨胀的爆发,工资收益受到侵蚀。 |
| 71 | As inflation subsided, Americans started to regain their footing. | 随着通货膨胀的缓和,美国人开始重新站稳脚跟. |
| 72 | But in the last few months, inflation-adjusted wages have started to decline again. | 但在过去几个月中,根据通货膨胀调整的工资开始再次下降. |
| 73 | So if people were feeling about even or starting to feel maybe a touch ahead, that's fading now. | 所以,如果人们有感觉 甚至或开始感觉 可能是前方的触摸, 那正在消失。 |
| 74 | The dance between wages and inflation is causing consumers to take their own extra steps to make up the difference. | 工资与通货膨胀之间的舞动导致消费者采取自己的额外步骤弥补差额. |
| 75 | People could be doing side gigs and side hustles. | 人们可能做 边演出和边皮条客。 |
| 76 | They could be getting money from the stock market. | 他们可能从股票市场得到钱 |
| 77 | Other people are stretching by using buy now, pay later. | 其他人现在用买来拉伸,以后再付 |
| 78 | People are making tradeoffs. | 人们在取舍 |
| 79 | People are doing all kinds of different things to try and be able to keep spending, keep their lifestyle and stay afloat. | 人们正在做各种各样的事情 尝试和能够保持开支, 保持他们的生活方式 并保持漂浮。 |
| 80 | The good news is that a lot of people are still earning paychecks. | 好消息是,很多人仍在挣工资。 |
| 81 | The unemployment rate is really low right now, which in normal times often means that everyone who wants a job can find a job. | 失业率现在确实很低,这在正常情况下往往意味着每一个想要工作的人都可以找到工作. |
| 82 | But that's not the case for everyone. | 但并不是每个人都这样 |
| 83 | For young workers, the picture is more bleak. | 对于年轻工人来说,情况更暗淡。 |
| 84 | Americans who have a job and are unhappy with it, they're feeling as if they can't leave because of those limited opportunities. | 有工作且对此不满意的美国人,觉得由于机会有限,他们好像不能离开. |
| 85 | On the other hand, if you're not in the job market, let's say you've lost your job, let's say you're a new college graduate, it's going to be a lot harder for you to get a job. | 另一方面,如果你不在就业市场,那么就说,你失去了工作,就说你是新大学毕业生了,那你找工作就难多了. |
| 86 | The overall big picture for unemployed, if you get laid off, the duration of unemployment right now is lengthening. | 失业的总体情况,如果你被解雇了,现在失业的持续时间正在延长。 |
| 87 | It's up around six months. | 约半年. |
| 88 | So that usually doesn't happen while the economy is still growing. | 因此,这通常不会发生在经济仍在增长的时候. |
| 89 | That's that's historically coincided with the recession. | 这在历史上正好是经济衰退的时候. |
| 90 | The divide between the haves and the have nots extends into the housing market as well. | 富人和穷人之间的鸿沟也延伸到住房市场。 |
| 91 | If you bought a house back in 2020 when interest rates were low, then you're feeling pretty good. | 如果你在2020年买回房子, 当时利率很低, 那你感觉很好。 |
| 92 | If you don't own a home and you want one, the median price of a home in the U.S. | 如果你没有房子,你想要一个, 美国一个房子的中位价。 |
| 93 | has gone up by about 50 percent and mortgage rates have gone up from below 4 percent to above 7 percent. | 贷款利率从4%以下上升到7%以上。 |
| 94 | So if you're looking at what a typical monthly payment would be in 2019 versus what it would be today, it's roughly doubled. | 所以,如果你看2019年的典型月薪 相对于今天的月薪 大约翻了一番 |
| 95 | Residential building construction, it's not doing well. | 住宅建筑建设情况不妙. |
| 96 | I've had some economists tell me that it's basically in recession at this point. | 我让一些经济学家告诉我,它基本上处于衰退状态。 |
| 97 | But of course, there's one kind of construction that's booming. | 当然,还有一种建筑在蓬勃发展. |
| 98 | The overall A.I. | 整个人工智能 |
| 99 | build out. | 建起来。 |
| 100 | It's helping push employment higher in some sectors, such as non-residential construction. | 这有助于推动非住宅建设等一些部门就业水平提高. |
| 101 | It is helping propel economic growth. | 它正在帮助推动经济增长。 |
| 102 | A Bloomberg economics analysis of government data suggests A.I.-related investment added roughly one percentage point to GDP growth in 2025, | 彭博经济学对政府数据的分析表明,与A.I.相关的投资大约增加了2025年GDP增长的一个百分点, |
| 103 | about half of overall economic growth. | 大约占总经济增长的一半。 |
| 104 | But the boom is coming at a cost. | 但繁荣要付出代价 |
| 105 | People don't necessarily want data centers built close to where they live. | 人们不一定希望数据中心 靠近他们居住的地方。 |
| 106 | There's also a lot of concern among workers that A.I. | 工人们对A. I. |
| 107 | will replace their job. | 将取代他们的工作。 |
| 108 | A.I. (英语). | |
| 109 | and this demand and need to put billions of dollars into investment in it has driven up the cost of everything from software to computers. | 而这种需要和需要投入数十亿美元 投入到它的投资中 驱动了从软件到计算机的一切成本。 |
| 110 | And that has an impact not only in those categories, but also on overall inflation. | 这不仅对这些类别产生影响,而且对整个通货膨胀产生影响。 |
| 111 | So even though A.I. | 所以,虽然A. I. |
| 112 | has been great for Wall Street and propped up economic growth, | 对华尔街来说是很棒的 并且推动了经济增长 |
| 113 | it's also creating a resource crunch, driving up prices in the process, which brings us full circle back to the everyday consequences for the U.S. economy. | 这也造成了资源紧缩, 驱动价格上升 在这个过程中, 这使我们 完全回过头来 美国经济的日常后果。 |
| 114 | If you raise the rates on the product that we're hauling, it drives the costs up at the store. | 如果你提高我们所运产品的价格 那会提高商店的成本 |
| 115 | I'm a business owner, but when I get out of my truck and I get in my car, I'm a consumer. | 我是一个商业老板,但当我走出我的卡车 和我的车,我是一个消费者。 |
| 116 | So I'm paying at the pump, I'm paying at the store. | 所以我在抽水机上付钱,在商店里付钱. |
| 117 | I feel the pain both sides of the fence. | 我感受到篱笆两边的痛苦 |
| 118 | So what are the options? | 有什么选择? |
| 119 | Find out in a moment. | 等会再查清楚 |
| 120 | The London Stock Exchange continues to shrink. | 伦敦证券交易所继续收缩. |
| 121 | 在Bloomberg.com的Slash视频中, | |
| 122 | Politics is, of course, part of the picture. | 当然,政治是画面的一部分。 |
| 123 | Legislation passed last year offered some cushion. | 去年通过的立法提供了一些缓冲。 |
| 124 | Larger than usual tax refunds have been really helpful for underpinning consumers this year. | 与往常相比,今年的退税额更大,对支持消费者很有帮助。 |
| 125 | They acted as a bit of a buffer between rising gasoline prices and energy prices. | 它们在汽油价格上涨和能源价格之间起到了缓冲作用。 |
| 126 | But that party is pretty much over. | 但那个派对差不多结束了 |
| 127 | And this has prompted some unorthodox ideas. | 这引起了一些非正统的想法。 |
| 128 | Trump has taken some approaches to throw some Band-Aids and improve this on the margins. | 特朗普采取一些办法抛出一些贴吧,并在边际上加以改进. |
| 129 | When it comes to gas prices, making a deal with Russia to try to get more supply of diesel on the market. | 在天然气价格方面,与俄罗斯达成协议,试图在市场上获得更多的柴油供应. |
| 130 | Or when it comes to prescription drug prices, launching initiatives to try to help with that. | 或者说,在处方药价格方面,发起倡议,试图帮助做到这一点。 |
| 131 | But Trump's moves are unlikely to move the needle. | 但特朗普的动作不太可能移动针头. |
| 132 | With inflation high, it's almost like someone should do something about it. | 随着通货膨胀高涨,几乎有人应该有所作为. |
| 133 | And this is where the Federal Reserve comes in. | 美联储就在这里 |
| 134 | For over five years now, inflation has been higher than the Fed's target. | 五年多来,通货膨胀一直高于美联储的目标. |
| 135 | But the Fed is signaling a gradual approach and playing its cards close. | 但美联储正在发出渐进式的信号 并关闭它的牌。 |
| 136 | We've got to determine the appropriate protocol. | 我们必须确定合适的程序 |
| 137 | So in many ways, the U.S. economy remains a crowded room where everyone is stepping on each other's toes. | 因此,在许多方面,美国经济仍然是一个拥挤的房间,每个人都踩着对方的脚趾. |
| 138 | When you see something like AI or energy prices, these things that interest rates don't really affect, | 当你看到类似AI或能源价格的东西, 这些东西的利率并不真正影响, |
| 139 | you have to push down on other elements of the economy to get inflation down. | 你不得不向经济的其他要素下推 以降低通货膨胀。 |
| 140 | So that means increasing interest rates so that consumers aren't spending as much, | 所以这意味着提高利率 使消费者不花那么多钱 |
| 141 | businesses aren't investing as much and slowing down that way, | 企业投资没有那么多 也减速了 |
| 142 | which means that it can lead to real pain for Americans across the board. | 也就是说它能给美国人带来真正的痛苦 |
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