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孙正义全英文拆解软银的全新AI路线图:为什么说“不赌 AI

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:01Usually, I don't do this, okay, but-通常,我不这样做,好吗,但...
0:04We appreciate that.我们对此表示赞赏。
0:05I know you don't.我知道你没有。
0:06Yeah.对
0:07So this is my respect to you and Steve.这就是我对你和史蒂夫的尊敬
0:23Hello and welcome to this week's episode of Inside Blackstone.欢迎收看本周的"黑石内部"
0:27我是Cristine Anderson 公司事务全球主管 这是排队
0:31First, Rodney Zemmell, Global Head of Blackstone's Operating Team, joins us for the Monday morning首先 黑石公司全球负责人罗德尼·泽梅尔 星期一早上加入我们
0:36meeting.会议。
0:37Then, Winfield Sickles is back with the Economic Weather Report, and next, the main event,接下来是"经济天气报告" 接下来的主要活动
展开字幕全文(538 条)
序号英文中文
1Usually, I don't do this, okay, but-通常,我不这样做,好吗,但...
2We appreciate that.我们对此表示赞赏。
3I know you don't.我知道你没有。
4Yeah.对
5So this is my respect to you and Steve.这就是我对你和史蒂夫的尊敬
6Hello and welcome to this week's episode of Inside Blackstone.欢迎收看本周的"黑石内部"
7我是Cristine Anderson 公司事务全球主管 这是排队
8First, Rodney Zemmell, Global Head of Blackstone's Operating Team, joins us for the Monday morning首先 黑石公司全球负责人罗德尼·泽梅尔 星期一早上加入我们
9meeting.会议。
10Then, Winfield Sickles is back with the Economic Weather Report, and next, the main event,接下来是"经济天气报告" 接下来的主要活动
11my late night conversation with legendary investor Masayoshi San, founder, chairman,我深夜和传奇投资者Masayoshi San的谈话,创始人,主席,
12以及Softbank的首席执行官
13Masa is renowned for making bold bets ahead of technological change.马萨以在技术变革前大胆下注而闻名。
14We discuss what he sees on the horizon and opportunities he believes the world is still我们讨论他在地平线上所看到的 以及他认为世界还存在的机会
15underestimating.估计不足
16And finally, Blackstone chairman, CEO, and co-founder, Steve Schwarzman, joins me for最后,黑石公司董事长,CEO,以及联合创始人史蒂夫·施瓦兹曼(Steve Schwarzman)也加入了我
17the debrief.汇报。
18All right, Rodney, thank you for joining us.好吧 Rodney 谢谢你加入我们
19Good to see you, Christine.很高兴见到你 克莉丝汀
20Thank you for having me.谢谢你邀请我
21All right.好吧,我们走。
22Well, you oversee our operating team.嗯,你监督我们的操作团队。
23What that means is you go into our companies with your team and try to build value at these这意味着你和你的团队一起进入我们的公司 努力在这些公司建立价值
24companies, try to improve them.公司,尝试改善它们。
25So clearly, AI, as we both know, driving the conversation.很明显,AI,我们都知道, 驱动对话。
26And the question for all of us right now is, can you implement AI at these companies at而我们现在的问题是, 你能在这些公司里执行AI吗?
27scale in a way that improves the value of these companies?提高这些公司价值的尺度?
28If you'd have asked me here a year ago, I think we would have talked about a lot of如果你一年前邀请我来这里 我想我们会谈论很多
29pilots and a lot of plans.飞行员和很多计划
30One of my favorite probably overused jokes at the beginning of the year is the biggest我最喜欢的笑话之一 可能过度使用 在年初是最大的
31beneficiaries of AI in 2025 were dogs owned by software developers.2025年AI的受益者是软件开发者拥有的狗.
32So every good software developer figured out how to use these tools before anyone else所以,每个好的软件开发者都想出 如何在别人之前使用这些工具
33did, got their work done 45 minutes faster, and then could go home and walk the dog.是的,让他们的工作做得更快 45分钟,然后可以回家走狗。
34So great for pet health.宠物健康真好
35Not necessarily good for the bottom line.不一定对底线有好处。
36Exactly.没错
37That's not what our CFOs, what our investors want to see.这不是我们的首席财务官, 我们的投资者想要看到的。
38Now, we've got a good number of companies we can point to where how that company works现在,我们有很多公司 可以指向公司的运作
39is feeling very different.感觉很不一样
40It's still early days, but we very much see it beginning to have an impact on the performance现在还很早 但我们非常清楚地看到 它开始对表演产生影响
41of the portfolio.投资组合。
42So which industries are seeing the greatest value created from AI?那么,哪些行业看到AI创造的最大价值?
43Yes, so all of them.是的,所以他们全部。
44What surprised me was at the beginning, we started with a strong hypothesis around software一开始我惊讶的是, 我们开始有一个关于软件的强烈假设
45and services.服务。
46And of course, we spent a lot of time there.当然,我们花了很多时间在那里。
47What surprised me, though, is in pretty much every other industry, there is an AI story令我惊讶的是,几乎其他行业都有AI的故事
48to be told.将被告知。
49And whether it's in industrials, with, for example, our company Chamberlain, where we're和它是否在工业, 例如,我们的公司张伯伦,我们在哪里
50helping them build a whole new digital access business that wouldn't have been possible帮助他们建立一个全新的 数字接入业务 这是不可能的
51without AI, or whether in our health care businesses, where you're thinking about everything没有AI, 或无论在我们的医疗企业, 在那里你思考的一切
52they need to do from how they handle their data to how they interact with their customers他们需要从如何处理数据到如何与客户互动
53that can be transformed to real to our consumer businesses, where the whole world of how它可以变成真实的 我们的消费企业, 在那里整个世界如何
54consumers find information and make choices is changing dramatically.消费者寻找信息和作出选择正在发生巨大变化。
55And they really need to be on the forefront of it.他们真的需要站在前列。
56And we're seeing that across industry after industry.我们从工业中看到这一点。
57What does that lead you to believe from a productivity boom standpoint?从生产力繁荣的角度来看,这让你相信什么?
58Well, I think we're probably already in it.好吧,我想我们可能已经在里面了。
59What's different, though, from maybe what people thought a couple of years ago is it's和几年前人们想的不一样的是
60hard, right?很难吧?
61So every company needs to sort of climb over this activation barrier, right?所以每个公司都需要爬过这个激活屏障 对吧?
62Real effort in right before they can really get the effort out.真正的努力在他们能够真正 得到的努力。
63Yeah, it takes time.是的,这需要时间。
64So what does that mean?这是什么意思?
65That means one, it will take a little longer to not everybody will be able to pull it off.这意味着,第一,要花点时间,不是每个人都能成功。
66But as investors, we like that, right?但是作为投资者,我们喜欢这样,对吧?
67The fact that it's hard means that the value once it's created will be a little stickier,硬的意味着一旦它被创造出来 价值就会有点粘
68right?对吧?
69It won't all get competed away.它不会全都被竞争。
70And maybe hopefully we have some differential advantage in creating that value, right?也许我们希望我们在创造这种价值方面 有不同的优势,对吧?
71That is what we're aiming for.这就是我们的目标。
72Finally, lessons for any CEOs or leaders that are listening about how they would think about最后,对于任何正在倾听他们如何思考的首席执行官或领导人来说,教训是:
73AI执行.
74I'll give you two.'二.
75Number one, focus.第一 专注
76It is not everything everywhere all at once.它不是所有的一切 一次。
77It's like pick one to two things.如选一二事.
78And number two, think very carefully about who you're putting in charge.第二,仔细想想你负责谁
79I've never seen this turn into business impact if it is tech led alone.我从来没有见过这个 变成商业影响 如果它是技术领导单独。
80It needs to be led by business and tech together, working in a super tight iterative它需要由企业和技术共同领导 在一个超紧的迭代中工作
81partnership.伙伴关系。
82That's hard.难曰.
83And that takes the right business leaders and time from the CEO themselves.这需要正确的企业领导 和CEO自己的时间。
84Well, fascinating insights.令人着迷的洞察力
85I'm hoping you'll agree to be a regular on the show as this all plays out.我希望你能同意成为节目的常客 随着这一切的进行。
86If you'll have me, I'd welcome that.如果你愿意,我会欢迎你。
87Of course, we would love it.当然,我们会喜欢的。
88And now over to my conversation with Winfield Sickles and the Economic Weather Report.现在到我和温菲尔德的谈话 和经济天气报告。
89Hey, Winfield.嘿,温菲尔德。
90Hey, Christine.嘿,克莉丝汀。
91Welcome back.欢迎回来
92All right.好吧,我们走。
93A lot has happened in the three weeks since you've been here.自从你来这三周以来 发生了很多事
94Understatement.轻述.
95I mean, including the haircut.我的意思是,包括发型。
96Maybe also not an understatement.也可能不是轻描淡写
97Looks good.看起来不错
98Thank you.谢谢
99All right.好吧,我们走。
100The single sentence economic weather report this week.单句经济气象报道本周.
101I'm going to make you do it.我会让你这么做的
102Single sentence.单句.
103One sentence.一句话
104One sentence economic weather report is corporate borrowing costs are definitely higher有一句话经济天气报告 公司借贷成本肯定更高
105and we're paying super close attention to it.我们正密切关注着它
106But all the drivers of growth, which are born out of this AI infrastructure boom但所有增长的驱动力 都来自于人工智能基础设施的繁荣
107and then the broadening of that to the rest of the economy is very much intact.然后,扩大经济的其余部分 是非常完整的。
108All right.好吧,我们走。
109You can go a little bit deeper now.你现在可以更深入一点了
110I can talk more.我可以多说点
111You can talk a little bit more about what's behind it.可以多谈其背后之事.
112OK, so Treasury yields 10 year through 5.3 percent highest level since 2002.国库的产量是2002年以来最高的5.3%。
113Right.对
114Driven by growth predominantly, in our opinion.我们认为,增长主要是驱动的。
115It's amazing to think that that's happened over six months.令人惊奇的是,认为这 发生在六个月。
116That's when yields bottomed and stocks are up almost 20 percent.这时,产量降到了底部, 储量几乎上升了20%。
117Corporate borrowing costs have expanded a little bit.公司借款成本略有扩大.
118But generally speaking, they're contained.但总的来说,它们被控制住了。
119And from our point of view, it's this acceleration in business investment.而从我们的观点来看,这是商业投资的加速.
120It's capex broadening out in the economy and then economic data.它正在经济中扩张 然后是经济数据
121For the most part, jobs report was a little bit weak.大部分工作报告有些薄弱。
122The last one that came out.最后一个出来。
123But more broadly, the economic data keeps surprising to the top side.但更广义地说,经济数据一直令高层感到惊讶.
124And when you look at Q3 GDP estimates, they're running around 3 percent,当你看Q3的GDP估计, 他们运行大约3%,
125which is above trend for the U.S. economy.这在美国经济中高于趋势。
126Plus the AI infrastructure build out, which is contributing to that story.加上人工智能基础设施的建设,这为这个故事做出了贡献。
127100 percent.百分百都一样
128So do you think this can continue?你觉得这还能继续吗?
129I think so because of what you just said on the AI infrastructure build out.我想是因为你刚才在人工智能基础设施上说的话
130And I think also when you look to the public markets我还想当你看看 公共市场
131and you look to the earnings trajectory there, Q2,你看看那里的收入轨迹,Q2,
132we've had this huge hyperscaler spend, you know, upwards of 800 billion dollars我们已经有这个巨大的超规模 花费,你知道, 超过8000亿美元
133this year, probably over a trillion dollars next year.今年,明年可能超过一万亿美元。
134We're in the middle of Q3 earnings now.我们正处于Q3收入的中间
135We'll see where they deliver.我们看看他们到哪里去
136But last quarter, you saw cloud revenue up between 50 to 120 percent但最后一个季度,你看到云收入在50%到120%之间
137across those names.这些名字之间。
138So it feels like the spend is starting to show up on the other side of the equation.因此,它的感觉是支出开始出现在方程式的另一边。
139OK, I always have to ask any data you're seeing from our portfolio companiesOK,我总是要问 从我们的证券公司你看到的任何数据
140that tells you what's happening.这告诉你发生了什么。
141I think you actually have the data from your great conversation我觉得你确实有 你伟大的谈话中的数据
142with David Levine last week.上周和大卫・莱文在一起
143We have all this AI infrastructure, but all of a sudden我们有这些人工智能基础设施 但突然间
144that's now impacting, for example, our logistics business以我们的物流业务为例
145and driving some of the growth that we're seeing there.推动我们所看到的成长
146So I think in terms of our proprietary data所以我认为我们的专有数据
147and how that broadening is coming to bear, that's a great example.以及这种扩张是如何发生的, 这是一个很好的例子。
148That's great.赞曰.
149Well, thank you for being here.谢谢你能来
150现在我们要谈谈我和SoftBank的Masa San的谈话
151Masa, welcome to Inside Blackstone.马萨 欢迎来到黑石内部
152We're so thrilled to have you with us.我们很高兴你和我们在一起。
153Yes, thank you very much.是的,非常感谢。
154It's 11 p.m. in New York, and you're joining us from Tokyo.现在是纽约晚上11点,你从东京过来
155I'm going to quickly give our listeners just a little bit of your bio我会很快地给我们的听众 一点点你的生物
156before we dive in.在我们潜入之前
157You were born in rural Japan to Korean parents.你出生在日本农村 韩国父母。
158You moved yourself to California at age 16你16岁就搬到加州了
159and then sold your first technology, an electronic translator,然后卖了你的第一个技术 一个电子翻译
160while still a student at UC Berkeley.还是加州大学伯克利分校的学生
161You used the proceeds to found SoftBank in 1981.你用收益在1981年发现了SoftBank
162Then over the next four decades, you developed a reputation接下来的40年里,你发展了声誉
163for seeing technology shifts before other people.技术在别人面前的改变
164You backed some of the defining companies of the Internet era你支持了互联网时代的一些定义公司
165before making bold bets on the future of artificial intelligence,在对人工智能的未来做出大胆的赌注之前
166including massive infrastructure investments and the largest stake in open AI.包括大规模基础设施投资以及公开AI的最大利益。
167But the reason I wanted to have you on doesn't have anything但是,我想有你的原因 没有任何东西
168to do with your track record.和你的记录。
169It's because you have been almost unmatched willingness是因为你几乎无与伦比的意愿
170to keep betting on what's next.继续赌下一局
171At 69, you've said that everything you've done up69岁,你说你所做的一切
172until this moment has been a warm up for what's to come.直到这一刻 已经是一个温暖 未来。
173So I'd love to say I think that's the most astounding statement.所以我想说,我觉得这是最令人惊叹的说法。
174So I wanted to start with that.所以我想从这个开始。
175You know, Alibaba, Yahoo, Arm, the Vision Fund.阿里巴巴 雅虎 阿尔姆 愿景基金
176Is this all really just a warm up?这真的只是热身吗?
177Yeah, I truly think so.是啊,我真的这么认为。
178What's going to happen on AI is so remarkable, so big.AI上将要发生的事情是如此惊人,如此之大.
179OK, so it seems that everything that I did in the past好吧,看来我过去所做的一切
180was just, you know, tiny things, tiny, tiny things.只是,你知道, 微小的东西,微小的东西。
181Well, so when you talk about what's next, Steve Schwarzman,好吧,所以当你谈论 什么是下一步,史蒂夫·施瓦兹曼,
182he said to me, you should really just ask Masa one thing,他对我说 你真的应该问马萨一件事
183which is sort of how do you how do you see it?你怎么看出来的?
184How do you get conviction around a big idea?你怎么对一个大主意有信念?
185AI was my theme for many, many years.多年来,AI一直是我的主题。
186In fact, when when I saw the first photograph事实上,当我看到第一张照片时
187of the microprocessor at the age of 17,17岁的微处理器,
188you know, I was reading a magazine on the street我在街上看杂志
189and I start crying, truly physically.我开始哭,真正的身体。
190I start crying on the street, just reading popular electronics or something.我开始在街上哭, 只是阅读流行的电子产品什么的。
191I said, this is going to change the future of mankind.我说,这将改变人类的未来。
192Now, the microprocessor eventually becomes so powerful, so smart现在,微处理器最终变得如此强大,如此聪明
193that it will be smarter than people's brain.它会比人的大脑聪明。
194Eventually, it may take some some number of years.最后,可能需要一些年。
195And I predicted maybe 50 years.我预测了大概50年
196It's done right.修行正觉.
197It's now 50 years.现五十年.
198I was 17 years old.我当时17岁。
199I'm 69, so, you know, 50 years.我六十九岁,所以,你知道的,50年。
200Now the microprocessors,现在微处理器
201the power of brain in the data centers, these are all happening.大脑在数据中心的力量, 这一切正在发生。
202And now it's going to go into the brain of the robotics.现在它要进入机器人的大脑。
203OK, so it's not just, you know, on the virtual world,好吧,所以它不只是, 你知道,在虚拟世界,
204but also in the physical world, it's going to start to happen.但同样在物理世界,它将开始发生。
205You said you think that could be 10,000 times more intelligent than humans,你说你认为这比人类聪明一万倍
206and that could come within a decade.10年之内就可以了
207Has that timetable sped up?时间表加快了吗?
208No matter what, how you define, if the AI becomes 10,000 times smarter,无论如何,你如何定义, 如果AI变得1万倍聪明,
209there's no more debate.没有争论了
210It becomes so smart that it will start to innovate它变得如此聪明,将开始创新
211a new technology by itself.一种新技术本身。
212Right.对
213So it's really happening.所以它真的发生了。
214So paint a picture for me, then.那就给我画张画吧
215What does that world look like?这个世界是什么样子的?
216You're obviously an optimist, right, about this AI enabled future.显然你是一个乐观主义者,对吗, 关于这个AI使未来。
217What does it look like for humankind?人类是什么样子?
218They will be happier if the human are happier,如果人类快乐,他们就会更快乐
219if the human is happier by by curing our unsolvable disease,如果人类更快乐 通过治愈我们无法治愈的疾病,
220like cancer and so on, and make sure we have no more accidents on the street.像癌症之类的, 确保我们没有更多的事故 在街道上。
221Make sure that all kinds of natural disasters are coming.确保各种自然灾害即将来临。
222They forecast and they give us solutions.他们预测,并给我们提供解决方案。
223And so they become like our surrounding of the brain所以他们变得像我们周围的大脑
224to help us become more productive,帮助我们变得更有生产力,
225help us become happier, you know, enjoy a human-like life.帮助我们变得更快乐,你知道,享受一个像人类一样的生活。
226What becomes of human progress?人类的进步会怎样?
227So much of life today and that you and I probably get out of life is今天的很多生活,你我 可能离开的生活是
228is achievement and and and learning new things each day.成就和每天学习的新事物。
229What does the human experience become?人类的经验会变成什么?
230Well, I think it will be even even more fun.我觉得会更好玩
231OK, we don't have to do what we did not want to do.好吧,我们不需要做 我们不想做的事。
232We can have more joy, more entertainment, more sports,我们可以有更多的快乐,更多的娱乐,更多的运动,
233more family engagement, more friends.更多的家庭参与,更多的朋友。
234So more humanly high patch things that we can do.所以,更多的人高 补丁的东西,我们可以做。
235Very interesting.非常有趣,你觉得呢?
236And yet there's been so much news lately about the risks associated with AI.然而最近却有这么多关于AI相关风险的消息.
237Even OpenAI recently disclosed new incidents where AI systems had falsified连OpenAI最近也披露了AI系统伪造的新事件.
238data and hid mistakes and essentially acted without permission,数据 隐藏错误 基本上擅自行事
239much like the hugging face situation.和拥抱的表情很像
240You know, OpenAI itself says it doesn't believe the industry has solved你知道,OpenAI本身说 它不相信 行业已经解决
241the alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree充分调整和监测
242to continue reasonably scaling at maximum speed.以最高速度继续合理缩小。
243Do you agree with that?你同意吗?
244I'm on the side of not really slowing down.我站在不真正减速的一边。
245Technology development actually is the solution技术开发其实是解决办法
246to those kind of issues.对于这些问题。
247If we are primitive, of course, we need the guidance,如果我们是原始的,当然, 我们需要指导,
248the rules, like when the automotive society comes.规则,像当汽车社会来。
249OK.摆
250We create a rule that we cannot drink, right?我们创造了一条不能喝酒的规则,对吧?
251When you are driving, you cannot have alcohol in your brain.当你开车的时候 你不能在脑子里喝酒
252You have to stop at the red light.你必须停在红灯。
253OK.摆
254You have to run on one side of the road so that you don't have a crash.你必须跑在路的一侧,以免发生车祸.
255OK. You have to create the rules and the manners,摆 你必须创造规则和礼仪,
256the etiquette for the better society of automotive.创造更好的汽车社会的礼仪
257We have to do the same thing for the AI.我们必须为AI做同样的事情.
258OK. And cyber attack, we're supposed not to do.摆 还有网络攻击 我们不应该这么做
259We have to protect the cyber attack by the technology.我们必须保护网络攻击的技术。
260And we have to protect bad AI agents.我们必须保护坏的AI特工
261Don't be misbehaved like a human.别像人类那样行事失当
262Supposed not to be misbehaved.应该不会犯规
263We have to teach AI agents.我们得教人工智能特工
264These are the bad thing.这是坏事。
265OK.摆
266So it's not just a capable AI agent.所以它不仅仅是一个有能力的AI特工.
267We have to create a good AI agent, good in heart,我们必须创造一个良好的AI代理, 良好的心脏,
268you know, make human happier.让人类更快乐
269That's the goal AI agents are supposed to have.这是AI特工应该有的目标
270OK.摆
271So then, you know, it will become smarter, smarter所以,你知道,它会变得聪明,聪明
272not to do silly stuff, not to do immoral stuff.不要做傻事, 不要做不道德的事。
273Human society to be, you know,人类社会,你知道,
274respect the other society, other people, other family.尊重另一个社会、其他人、其他家庭。
275Right.对
276We have to do the same thing on AI, not slowing down.我们必须在AI上做同样的事情,不要放慢速度.
277The progress make the solution.进展是解决问题的办法。
278So we have to go full speed.所以我们必须全速前进。
279Where's the good intent?善心何处.
280To build the good intent into the system.将好意建立在系统中.
281Yes.对
282Moving at full speed.全速前进.
283Yes.对
284So like Blackstone, SoftBank has made major AI infrastructure investments.因此,和黑石公司一样,SoftBank也做了大量的AI基础设施投资.
285You've essentially bet the farm in the sense that you're investing across,你打赌农场,因为你正在投资
286you know, the LLMs, the chips, the, you know, the data centers, et cetera.你知道,LLM,芯片, 数据中心等等。
287Why not pick just one of those areas?为什么不从中挑一个?
288No, I wouldn't pick just one.不 我不会只选一个
289OK.摆
290This is the AI era starting, AI generation starting.这是AI时代开始,AI世代开始.
291The history is going to be creative.历史将具有创造性。
292OK.摆
293So I don't have to run one company所以我不用经营一家公司
294and be a CEO of one operating company.成为一家运营公司的首席执行官
295I can be an investor.我可以做投资人
296I create an ecosystem,我创造了一个生态系统,
297ecosystem of group of companies that we invest.我们投资的公司集团的生态系统。
298We invest, you know, not as a passive investor.我们投资,你知道, 不是作为一个被动投资者。
299We are, you know, more involved with the growth of the company,我们,你知道,更多 参与公司的增长,
300bringing synergy among our portfolio company.给我们的投资组合公司带来协同效应
301Usually we are largest shareholder of our portfolio company,通常我们是投资组合公司的最大股东,
30220%,30%,80%
303OK, so we have more involvement with each of the CEO,好吧,所以我们有更多的参与 每一个CEO,
304but only focused AI related.但只关注AI相关.
305You recently said that SoftBank has begun mass producing robots你最近说SoftBank已经开始大量生产机器人
306at a physical AI plant with robots producing robots.在一个物理AI工厂 机器人生产机器人。
307I'm curious what these robots are being produced to do.我很好奇这些机器人会做什么。
308Yes.对
309So we are very quietly developing those,所以我们非常安静地开发这些,
310our portfolio company, family company.我们的证券公司 家族公司
311We have more than 30 robotics companies in our portfolio我们有30多家机器人公司
312and very quietly preparing the time to come.并且非常悄悄地准备来的时候。
313But as I said in the beginning of conversation,但我在谈话开始时说过
314the humans are still doing a lot of tiring job.人类仍然在做许多累人的工作。
315Doing dishes like I do.做盘子像我一样。
316Exactly.没错
317We enjoy that.我们喜欢这样
318Right.对
319So if those things were done by robots,所以,如果那些事情是机器人做的,
320the human can focus doing something more fun, more exciting.人类可以专心做更有趣更刺激的事
321I think the story of you at 16 years old going over to the,我想你16岁那年的故事
322you know, really with your own cleverness, getting in to see the你知道,真的用你自己的聪明, 进入看
323the head of McDonald's Japan and asking him one question,麦当劳的日本头 问他一个问题,
324which is what should you study?你该学什么?
325And I'm just curious, what would what would if someone asked you today我只是好奇 如果今天有人问你怎么办
326what to study, what would the answer be?学习什么,答案是什么?
327AI.大赦国际。
328Yes.对
329Superintelligence.超级智能.
330If you're interested in medicines, OK,如果你对药品感兴趣,好吧
331the superintelligence for medicine医学的超级情报
332make it much more productive.让它更有成效。
333Superintelligence for the automotive.汽车超级智能.
334If you're interested in automotive, you know, subject如果你对汽车感兴趣,你知道,主题
335superintelligence with automotive as a combination,超级智能 汽车作为组合,
336be the real supercar.成为真正的超级汽车。
337Right.对
338So every subject, airplane or, you know, whatever the business所以,每个主题,飞机,或者,你知道的,不管生意
339you want to get in, the specialist you want to be.你想进,你想要的专家。
340Yeah.对
341You bring the superintelligence combined,你带来了超级情报组合,
342then you have the future of of the subject into success.然后,你有 未来的主题成功。
343How do you use AI in your daily life?在日常生活中如何使用AI?.
344How would you encourage CEOs to be using AI?你将如何鼓励CEO使用AI?
345Oh, my God.须菩提.
346That's too many ways to put it.说得太多了
347Myself, I'm using now three hours a day, maybe我自己,我现在每天用三个小时,也许
348on the week on the weekend.周末的那个星期
349I spend maybe seven hours a day on the weekend.我可能每天花七小时在周末。
350And you're talking to the AI and asking questions and iterating.而你却在和人工智能交谈,问问题和延绵.
351What are you doing?你在干吗?
352Yeah, I cannot now live without it.是啊,我现在不能没有它。
353You know, even one day, I cannot live without it now.你知道,即使有一天, 我不能没有它现在。
354It's so productive, so exciting.如此丰硕,令人兴奋.
355And people say, hey, you know, when the AI, if you use,人们说,嘿,你知道, 当AI,如果你使用,
356you don't use your brain, it's the opposite.你不使用你的大脑, 这是相反的。
357It's totally opposite.这是完全相反的。
358OK, it's like having a thought partner.好吧,这就像有一个思想伙伴。
359When you start, you know, debating, right?当你开始,你知道,辩论,对不对?
360Discussing if the AI says this and say,讨论AI是否说,
361Oh, but what about this angle?哦,但是这个角度呢?
362Can you make it 20 percent more efficient?你能提高20%的效率吗?
363Can you do this and get you can debate, right?你能做到这一点,让你可以辩论,对不对?
364Brainstorm.脑暴.
365It's it's my thought made now.这是我现在的想法。
366If you're an investor, what should you really be thinking about?如果你是投资人 那你到底在想什么?
367There's so much to learn.学人甚多.
368But what would you what would you advise people to be focusing on?但你建议人们关注什么?
369As an investor?作为投资者?
370Well, I say forget about short term small money.好吧,我说忘了短期的小额钱。
371Think big.以为大.
372OK.摆
373The result is proportionate to your dream.结果与你的梦想成正比
374OK, if your dream is so small, if your wish is so small,如果你的梦想如此渺小 如果你的愿望如此渺小
375you still get 70 percent achievement.你还是有70%的成就
376If the wish is so big, your dream is so big, you still get 70 percent.如果愿望如此之大,你的梦想如此之大, 你仍然得到70%。
377That's right.没错
378OK.摆
379So no matter how big is your wish or dream,所以无论你的愿望和梦想有多大
380you you're not going to get 100 percent that easily.你不会那么容易得到100%的。
381On the average, you get 70 percent.平均来说,你得到70%。
382OK.摆
383So why not think big?那么,为什么不思考大?
384It seems like you think in these longer time horizons than most people.看来你比大多数人 都想在这么长的时间范围内
385At my meeting every day, every day我每天都在开会
386we talk about what about next 10 years, you know, plan of us,我们谈了未来十年的计划
387the strategy for us.我们的策略
388And the next day we revise, hey, what is 10 years from the next day?第二天我们修改,嘿, 10年后的第二天是什么?
389We again.又来了
390Right.对
391People say, why is it going to change that much?人们说,为什么它会改变这么多?
392Yes, I say yes, because in 24 hours是的,我说是,因为24小时后
393we have lots more new input, more thinking.我们有更多的新的投入,更多的思考。
394We have to adjust a lot.我们必须调整很多。
395OK.摆
396So but nobody knows exactly what's going to happen in 10 years.但是没有人知道10年后会发生什么。
397That's why we have to think.这就是为什么我们必须思考。
398You know, people say, oh, 10 years later, nobody knows.你知道,人们说, 哦,10年后,没有人知道。
399So let's not think about it.故不思议.
400Let's think about next year.让我们想想明年。
401OK.摆
402It's the opposite.则相反.
403If if you don't know what's going to happen in 10 years,如果你不知道十年后会发生什么
404don't give up thinking about it.不要放弃想它。
405Think, think, think.思考,思考,思考。
406OK.摆
407I have one personal question to ask you, which is that you have a我有一个个人问题要问你 那就是你有一个
408you have been married for five decades.你已经结婚五十年了
409And I'm just curious through all of the ups and downs of your career,我好奇你事业的所有起伏
410these high highs and some, you know, very public challenges这些高点和一些非常公开的挑战
411that you've had, you've had this relationship.你曾经有过这种关系
412And what has that relationship, how has that helped you succeed?是什么关系? 这怎么帮助你成功?
413Well, look, you know, the relationship is so important, right?你看,你知道, 关系是如此重要,对不对?
414That you have to respect people, you have to love people.你必须尊重人们, 你必须爱人们。
415And you have to, you know, you have to feel that this is important.你必须,你知道,你必须 觉得这很重要。
416Well, congratulations on five decades.恭喜你们五十年了
417I think that's super impressive.我觉得这太令人印象深刻了
418I want to ask you one other thing, which is the SoftBank Hawks,我想问你另外一件事, 就是软银行的鹰,
419which is one of the the top baseball teams in Japan.是日本顶级棒球队之一
420Curious if you would let Chachi BT pick the opening lineup.好奇的是,如果你会让 Chachi BT 接开场排队。
421No, that's it.不,就是这样。
422That's a no, that's too far.这是不,这是太远。
423That is a job of our general manager.这是我们总经理的工作。
424OK. You sure?摆 你确定吗?
425You know, he's he has a lot of capability你知道,他有很强的能力
426and trust by the member of the team.以及团队成员的信任
427And that's a part of the fun.这是其中一部分乐趣。
428It's it's not just to calculate this stuff.这不仅仅是计算这些东西。
429Right.对
430Well, as Steve promised, fascinating conversation with you and so many insights.正如史蒂夫所承诺的 跟你的精彩对话 还有很多见解
431And we're so grateful to you for being here.我们非常感谢你来到这里。
432Thank you so much.非常感谢
433Good luck to all of you.祝你们好运
434Thank you very much.谢谢
435Well, Steve, thank you for stopping by.好了,史蒂夫,谢谢你的来访。
436It's my pleasure.这是我的荣幸。
437I hope you'll be a frequent guest on Inside Blackstone.我希望你能经常成为黑石内线的客人
438Easy to do.很简单
439All right.好吧,我们走。
440Well, we just had a great conversation with Masa, such an interesting guy.我们刚和Masa聊得很开心 真是个有趣的人
441When we when we decided to do this podcast, you said we had to get him on当我们决定做播客时 你说我们得让他上播
442just because of the the vision that he has and the ability to see around corners.只是因为他有远见 并且有能力环顾四周
443Why is that such an unusual trait?怎么会有这么不寻常的特质?
444Well, it's unusual because most people don't do it.嗯,这是不寻常的,因为大多数人不这样做。
445What's usual for him, he's technologically based对他来说是平常的 他的技术基础
446and he has the ability to see what a technology他有能力看到什么是技术
447in the right hands can do commercially.在正确的手中可以做商业。
448And he sort of just waits to see the moment他只是等着看到那一刻
449and see the person who's going to be developing it.并看到将要开发的人。
450And then he bets the house all the chips, all the chips go on the table.然后他把房子赌了所有的筹码,所有的筹码都放在桌子上.
451Sometimes if he's getting more and more chips because he's being successful,有时候,如果他得到越来越多的筹码 因为他的成功,
452he'll diversify into different ways to play the same他会以不同的方式玩同样的游戏
453as he's doing right now across the ecosystem.就像他正在对着生态系统做的那样
454He's playing everything, of course.当然 他在玩一切
455And over time, he's had way more triumphs than setbacks, but he has both.随着时间的推移,他取得了比挫折更多的胜利, 但他有两者。
456And he is incredibly resilient.他的韧性非常强
457Setbacks don't bother him the way they do normal people because he's on theme.后退不会像他们对待正常人那样困扰他,因为他在主题上.
458Right.对
459If he believes something,如果他相信什么的话
460he knows it's going to happen.他知道这会发生。
461His timing can be a little off, doesn't trouble him.他的时机可能有点不对劲,不会惹他麻烦的.
462So he's got nerves of steel.所以他有神经的钢铁。
463Clearly, it's a period of tremendous disruption right now.显然,这是一个时期 巨大的破坏现在。
464How do you think about investing during periods like this?你觉得在这样的时期投资怎么样?
465Well, I like change.我喜欢改变
466If there wasn't change, there wouldn't be Blackstone,如果没有改变,就不会有黑石,
467because everything would be in liquid securities on some kind of 60, 40因为每件事物都会在60,40的流动性证券上
468divided portfolio between debt and equity.在债务和股本之间分配投资组合。
469I'm always looking for new things that are quite enduring.我总是在寻找一些新的东西 这些东西是相当持久的。
470I'm not interested in short term trades, you know, like what's going to happen?我对短期交易不感兴趣, 你知道,像会发生什么?
471And I knew through some series of accidents我通过一系列事故知道
472that that AI was going to be a thing that was happening for a 20, 30 year run.那AI会是一个事情 正在发生20,30年。
473Well, let's talk about that.好吧,让我们谈谈这个。
474I mean, you were so early to this in 2019.2019年你来得这么早
475You are making a gift to Oxford even before that 2018 gift to MIT在2018年给麻省理工学院的礼物之前 你就要给牛津大学做礼物了
476to really focus on AI safety.真正专注于AI安全。
477What's your take on how we need to be addressing that?你对我们需要如何应对这个问题有什么看法?
478Well, now, in effect, what I knew and other people knew back嗯,现在,实际上,我知道的 和别人知道回来
479in the Middle Ages there that the cat's out of the bag.中世纪的猫从袋子里出来了
480Everybody now knows because in the front page of almost every newspaper现在大家都知道了 因为几乎每份报纸的头版
481lead story in the media that there are issues on AI safety媒体主要报道AI安全问题
482that will need to be solved and addressed.需要加以解决。
483And you're optimistic that we can figure that out.你乐观地认为我们可以找出答案。
484I'm optimistic that that the population of the world is going to make sure我乐观地认为 世界人口将会确保
485that that's figured out.这已经解决了。
486And the journey of exactly how to get there,如何到达那里,
487you know, doesn't look as neat as it might.你知道,看起来不像它那么整洁。
488But I'm confident that we'll be able to address this但我相信我们能解决这个问题
489because the technology is so useful and so powerful因为技术如此有用 如此强大
490and we'll be able over time to deliver enormous benefits to society.随着时间的推移,我们将能够为社会带来巨大的利益。
491Massa is obviously incredibly optimistic about what all this means for humanity.马萨显然对这一切对人类意味着什么感到非常乐观。
492Do you share that optimism?你赞同这种乐观态度吗?
493I mean, you're you're going to have real changes in the whole我的意思是,你会有真正的变化 整个
494health care medical area, and you'll see that it'll be profound.医疗区域, 你会看到它将是深刻的。
495It'll extend life for many, many people.这会延长很多人的寿命
496You'll be able to have individualized education,你会有个性化的教育,
497and that'll enable anybody with a smartphone.那样就能让任何有智能手机的人
498And those are people all over the world.他们都是全世界的人。
499People will be able to get remarkable education just tailored to them.人们可以得到适合他们的卓越教育。
500What's that going to mean?这是什么意思?
501What's it going to mean when some period of time,如果有一段时间,那是什么意思?
502I don't know whether it's 10 years or whatever,我不知道是十年还是什么的,
503you're going to start seeing robots doing things that you never would imagine.你会开始看到机器人 做你无法想象的事
504And that could increase wealth around the world,这可以增加世界各地的财富,
505free up time for people to do other types of things.给人们腾出时间去做其他类型的事情。
506So radical change, major change如此激进的变化,重大的变化
507won't come as fast as some people think.不会像别人想象的那么快
508There is an evolution to it.它有一个进化。
509But when it's all said and done, it will be part of a big step up.但是,当这一切的说和完成, 它将是一大步骤的一部分。
510So complicated, but ultimately good for humanity.如此复杂,但最终对人类有益。
511Absolutely.当然
512So listening to Massa, one thing you heard is that he made a comment听马萨的话 你听到的一件事就是 他发表了评论
513about how he thinks about investing and how he thinks about doing big things.关于他如何思考投资 如何思考做大事。
514And he said the result is proportionate to the dream.他说结果与梦想成正比
515And it made me think a little bit about something这让我想起一些事情
516you've been saying for a long time,你已经说了很多年了
517where it's just as easy to do small things as it is big things.在那里做小事和做大事情一样容易。
518So you might as well go big.所以你还是去大。
519Curious to hear how you think about that today at a moment like right now.听到你今天在像现在这样的时刻 如何思考这个想法很好奇
520Well, it's always the same.总是一样
521I've always believed that that our time is the most precious resource.我一直相信我们的时间是最宝贵的资源
522And so if we're going to do something, it should be grand所以,如果我们要做一些事情, 它应该是伟大的
523and wonderful and worthy of a full scale effort.和精彩,值得 全力以赴。
524Because I've also found that almost nothing succeeds因为我也发现几乎什么都没有成功
525without almost a superhuman effort.几乎没有超人的努力。
526Big successes don't happen because you dream about them only.伟大的成功不会发生 因为你只梦见它们。
527You have to do them.你必须这样做。
528And you can't do many of these things with a limited amount of effort.你不能用有限的努力做这些事情。
529So I buy into what Massa was saying with that.所以我相信马萨的话
530And I've I've always tried to do that here at Blackstone.我一直想在黑石镇做这个
531And that's what makes it fun,这才有趣
532because you're part of something that's really transformative因为你是真正变革的一部分
533on a level, not just within Blackstone, but as part of the world.不仅在黑石内部 而且作为世界的一部分
534Well, Steve, always so fun to talk to you.嗯,史蒂夫,总是那么有趣 跟你说话。
535Thank you for being here.谢谢你能来
536I hope you'll come back.我希望你能回来
537And thank you for joining us on this episode of Inside Blackstone.谢谢你加入我们的黑石内幕
538Please subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.请在得到播客的地方订阅
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