TED演讲：如何在艰难情况下，做出重大决策！
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | So I'd like to start with two wildfires. | 所以我想从两个野火开始 |
| 0:07 | In 2016, I was the director of the Wildland Urban Interface for the Fort McMurray Fire. | 2016年,担任麦克莫雷堡火场荒地城市界面总监. |
| 0:15 | I arrived days after the fire had jumped the Athabasca River and entered the community | 在大火袭击阿塔巴斯卡河 进入社区几天后,我赶到 |
| 0:21 | as a torrent of flame and ember, starting hundreds of fires simultaneously throughout | 作为火焰和火炉的种子,同时引发数百起火灾 |
| 0:27 | the community, and in many neighborhoods, these fires arrived before the evacuations | 这些火灾在疏散之前就已经来临了 |
| 0:32 | that the motorists did, and the flames licked at the bumpers of those fleeing. | 车手们做的, 火焰舔着那些逃跑者的保险杠。 |
| 0:38 | And I was there to relieve the first responders who had been working without sleep since that | 我在那里是为了解脱那些从那时起 一直没有睡觉的第一反应者 |
| 0:44 | time, and I had never seen anything like it. | 时间,我从来没有见过类似的东西。 |
| 0:50 | At the time, no one had. | 当时无人有. |
| 0:53 | Rows of homes decimated, interspersed, seemingly at random, with homes that were untouched, | 成排的房屋被毁灭,相互夹击, 似乎是随意的, 房屋没有被破坏, |
展开字幕全文（165 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | So I'd like to start with two wildfires. | 所以我想从两个野火开始 |
| 2 | In 2016, I was the director of the Wildland Urban Interface for the Fort McMurray Fire. | 2016年,担任麦克莫雷堡火场荒地城市界面总监. |
| 3 | I arrived days after the fire had jumped the Athabasca River and entered the community | 在大火袭击阿塔巴斯卡河 进入社区几天后,我赶到 |
| 4 | as a torrent of flame and ember, starting hundreds of fires simultaneously throughout | 作为火焰和火炉的种子,同时引发数百起火灾 |
| 5 | the community, and in many neighborhoods, these fires arrived before the evacuations | 这些火灾在疏散之前就已经来临了 |
| 6 | that the motorists did, and the flames licked at the bumpers of those fleeing. | 车手们做的, 火焰舔着那些逃跑者的保险杠。 |
| 7 | And I was there to relieve the first responders who had been working without sleep since that | 我在那里是为了解脱那些从那时起 一直没有睡觉的第一反应者 |
| 8 | time, and I had never seen anything like it. | 时间,我从来没有见过类似的东西。 |
| 9 | At the time, no one had. | 当时无人有. |
| 10 | Rows of homes decimated, interspersed, seemingly at random, with homes that were untouched, | 成排的房屋被毁灭,相互夹击, 似乎是随意的, 房屋没有被破坏, |
| 11 | cars abandoned in the roadways, a city strangely silent except for the hum of our pumps and | 被弃置在路边的汽车, 一个奇怪的沉默的城市 除了我们的水泵和 |
| 12 | the clang of Pulaski's. | 普拉斯基家族的家族 |
| 13 | Now our crews were able to protect the remaining neighborhoods, but when the 88,000 people that | 现在,我们的船员能够保护 剩下的邻居, 但当88,000人 |
| 14 | were evacuated returned, some had little to return to, and Fort McMurray remains the most | 一些人几乎无法返回,而麦克莫雷堡仍然是 |
| 15 | destructive and costly wildfire in Canadian history. | 加拿大历史上的毁灭性和昂贵的野火。 |
| 16 | The next year, I responded to a fire threatening the town of Waterton, which is a beautiful | 次年,我回应了一场大火 威胁着沃特顿镇,这里是美丽的 |
| 17 | community in the Rocky Mountains. | 洛基山社区 |
| 18 | This fire appeared more distant, some 25 kilometers on the other side of the Great Divide, which | 这场大火显得更遥远, 大约25公里 在另一边的大分裂, |
| 19 | is a high mountainous ridge where our crews were trying to hold it. | 是一个高山山脊 我们的船员试图保持它。 |
| 20 | One night, the fire did something that no one expected. | 有一天晚上,大火 做了没人预料的事 |
| 21 | When night fell, and the fire behavior normally reduces, the fire surged over the ridge. | 当夜幕倒塌,火灾行为通常会减少,火势猛烈地冲过山脊. |
| 22 | Moving 100 meters a minute, flames overran the town at 10 p.m., and the fire quadrupled | 每分钟移动100米,火焰在晚上10点冲过镇上,火势翻了两番 |
| 23 | in size in about five hours. | 大约5小时后大小。 |
| 24 | When the smoke cleared, we hadn't lost a single home in Waterton, and there were no injuries. | 当烟雾清除后,我们在沃特顿没有失去一个家庭,也没有人受伤. |
| 25 | And that is because three days earlier, the community was evacuated, and firefighters | 这是因为三天前 社区被疏散 消防员 |
| 26 | had established extensive community protection efforts, and though the landscape was transformed, | 建立了广泛的社区保护努力,虽然地貌已经改变, |
| 27 | people could return home safely a few days later. | 人们可以在几天后安全回家。 |
| 28 | Now the difference between these two fires was a single bold decision. | 现在这两种火的区别 只是一个大胆的决定 |
| 29 | Firefighters in Waterton couldn't have anticipated exactly what would happen, but they assessed | 沃特顿的消防员无法预料到会发生什么,但他们评估了 |
| 30 | the risks, and they made a great decision with huge consequences for their community. | 他们做出了一个巨大的决定 给社区带来巨大后果 |
| 31 | It was up to them, and they rose to the challenge. | 这取决于他们,他们奋起迎接挑战。 |
| 32 | Now we all face times when it is up to us. | 现在我们都面临着时间 当它取决于我们。 |
| 33 | I am an emergency manager and an incident commander, and I'm deeply curious about this | 我是一个紧急管理者和事件指挥官 我对此非常好奇 |
| 34 | question. | 问题。 |
| 35 | How can we make big decisions well? | 我们怎样才能做出明智的决定? |
| 36 | Decisions that are high impact, that are complex, where we may not have all the time we would | 影响大、复杂、我们可能没有全部时间的决定 |
| 37 | like, and all the information that we need. | 以及我们需要的所有信息 |
| 38 | How do we make big decisions well? | 我们怎样做大决定? |
| 39 | Now on a wildfire, these decisions include whether to use direct or indirect attack, | 现在,在野火上, 这些决定包括 使用直接或间接的攻击, |
| 40 | or when our best option is to move people out of the path of a wildfire, and we might | 或者当我们最好的选择是 让人们走出野火之路,我们可能 |
| 41 | make these decisions in an incident command post, an emergency operations center, or hunched | 在事故指挥所、紧急行动中心、或 |
| 42 | over the hood of a truck with paper maps pockmarked by ash. | 在一辆卡车的车盖上 上面印着纸质地图 上面刻着灰烬 |
| 43 | But as a medical professional or a CEO, you might be making these decisions in a boardroom. | 但是作为一名医学专业人员或首席执行官,你可能会在董事会做出这些决定。 |
| 44 | As a parent or partner, you might make these decisions at the kitchen table, and I'd like | 作为父母或伴侣,你可以在厨房桌上做这些决定,我想 |
| 45 | to share with you what I've learned about making big decisions in challenging circumstances. | 与你分享我在挑战性环境下 做出重大决定的经验 |
| 46 | So here's what we normally think happens, right? | 所以,这是我们通常的想法,对不对? |
| 47 | We face a big problem. | 我们面临一个大问题。 |
| 48 | We collect all the available information, we evaluate our options, and we select the | 我们收集所有可用信息,评估我们的选择,我们选择 |
| 49 | one that maximizes the things that we want to happen, and minimizes those that we don't. | 尽可能扩大我们想要发生的事情 尽可能减少我们不想发生的事情 |
| 50 | And in this view, decision problems are essentially information problems, that we can't eliminate | 而在这个观点中,决定问题基本上是信息问题,我们不能消除 |
| 51 | the uncertainty, but we can chip away at it by adding more information. | 不确定性, 但我们可以通过增加更多的信息来消除它。 |
| 52 | And so I committed to providing the best information for our incident commanders, but I kept encountering | 所以我承诺 为我们的事件指挥官提供最好的情报 但我一直遇到 |
| 53 | situations that I couldn't make sense of, where adding more information didn't seem | 我无法理解的情况, 增加更多的信息似乎没有 |
| 54 | to be helping people make better decisions. | 帮助人们做出更好的决定。 |
| 55 | In one study, increasing the amount of information available to incident commanders consistently | 在一项研究中,不断增加向事件指挥官提供的信息量 |
| 56 | decreased their performance, although they thought they were performing better. | 虽然他们认为表现更好,但他们的表现却减少了。 |
| 57 | What was happening is that more information was not reducing uncertainty in practice, | 发生的情况是,更多的信息并没有减少实际中的不确定性, |
| 58 | but causing these incident commanders to focus their attention on evaluating all of this | 但让这些事件指挥官 集中精力评估这一切 |
| 59 | data and overlooking more important aspects. | 数据和忽略更重要的方面。 |
| 60 | And some of the best firefighters that I knew didn't have better information, they seemed | 一些最好的消防员 我知道没有更好的信息,他们似乎 |
| 61 | to work by feel, that on a big day, they could bend down and touch the grass and tell me | 他们可以弯腰摸草 告诉我 |
| 62 | with great accuracy what the fire would do later that day. | 当天晚些时候,火势会怎样。 |
| 63 | And so I turned to psychology to help me understand all this, and I discovered that I had missed | 于是我转向心理学来帮助我理解这一切 我发现我错过了 |
| 64 | something of a revolution, that we have our rational minds, of course, but we have an | 当然,我们有理性的头脑 但我们有 |
| 65 | entirely different set of tools to help us make complex decisions. | 帮助我们作出复杂决定的工具完全不同。 |
| 66 | And that is our gut, our intuitions. | 这是我们的直觉,我们的直觉。 |
| 67 | They're fast, they're effortless, they often don't feel like making a decision at all, | 他们速度快,没有精力, 他们经常不想做决定, |
| 68 | you just see the solution, they're how we drive our car to work, and how we look over | 你只是看到解决方案, 他们是我们如何开车去工作, 我们如何看过去 |
| 69 | in the next lane and spot a dangerous driver from a tiny observation. | 发现一个危险的司机 从一个很小的观察。 |
| 70 | In fact, most of our judgments in life are made intuitively, and they can perform amazing | 事实上,我们生活中的大部分判断都是直观的, 他们可以表演惊人的 |
| 71 | feats. | 诸功德. |
| 72 | Chess grandmasters form an idea of the best move extremely quickly, within a few seconds, | 围棋大师们在几秒钟内 形成了一个最佳动作的想法 |
| 73 | and four out of five times, that is the decision that they ultimately play. | 5次中,有4次, 这是他们最终发挥的决定。 |
| 74 | How do they do that? | 他们怎么做到的? |
| 75 | If you ask them, they're not entirely sure either. | 如果你问他们, 他们也不完全确定。 |
| 76 | And it turns out our intuition is a form of unconscious pattern recognition, that it can | 结果发现我们的直觉 是无意识模式识别的一种形式, 它可以 |
| 77 | keep track of details that our conscious mind misses. | 追踪我们意识中错过的细节 |
| 78 | And that is how those firefighters were able to predict complex fire behavior by touching | 这就是消防员如何通过触摸来预测复杂的火灾行为 |
| 79 | a few blades of grass. | 几片草叶. |
| 80 | They had a lifetime's worth of patterns stored in their memory. | 他们一生的图案都保存在记忆中 |
| 81 | But our intuitions are not magic. | 但我们的直觉不是魔法 |
| 82 | They can be fooled. | 他们会被骗的 |
| 83 | They create useful thoughts rapidly. | 它们迅速产生有用的思想。 |
| 84 | But they can see patterns that aren't there. | 但是他们可以看到不存在的模式。 |
| 85 | They can see the Virgin Mary in burnt toast. | 他们可以看到烧烤的圣母玛利亚. |
| 86 | They can see a conspiracy behind every setback. | 他们可以看到每一个挫折背后的阴谋. |
| 87 | And crucially, they struggle with any form of statistics. | 关键是,他们与任何形式的统计 相抗衡。 |
| 88 | If you take these two packages, for example, if we choose to reflect on them, we may know | 如果你拿这两个包,例如, 如果我们选择思考,我们也许知道 |
| 89 | intellectually that these are equal, but we're always going to prefer that one on the left, | 在思想上,这些是平等的, 但我们总是会更喜欢左边的那一个, |
| 90 | right? | 对吧? |
| 91 | Now, in a grocery aisle, that's not a big problem. | 现在,在杂货店, 这不是一个大问题。 |
| 92 | But if we are evaluating a fire containment strategy with an 80% chance of success, it | 但是,如果我们正在评估 防火策略 80%的概率成功,它 |
| 93 | helps to reflect on that 20% chance of failure. | 帮助思考20%的失败概率。 |
| 94 | And so we have these two types of thinking, our gut and our rational mind, each with their | 因此,我们有这两种类型的思维, 我们的直觉和我们理性的头脑, |
| 95 | own different sources of wisdom and their own blind spots. | 拥有不同的智慧来源和自己的盲点。 |
| 96 | How can we draw on both in challenging circumstances? | 在富有挑战性的情况下,我们如何利用两者? |
| 97 | Now, I don't have all of the answers for that, but I do want to share an insight from firefighting. | 现在,我还没有所有的答案, 但我确实想分享一下消防的见解。 |
| 98 | And that is to start with a size up. | 这是从一个大小的开始。 |
| 99 | When we arrive on scene to a new fire, we systematically gather information on what's | 当我们到达现场 新的火灾, 我们系统地收集信息 |
| 100 | burning, fire behavior, the hazards, what could be threatened in the area. | 燃烧,火灾行为, 危险,什么可能威胁 在该地区。 |
| 101 | And only after that is complete do we turn our attention to strategies and tactics. | 只有完成这项工作之后,我们才把注意力转向战略和战术。 |
| 102 | You can imagine fire response is extremely time sensitive. | 你可以想象火力反应对时间极为敏感 |
| 103 | A good size up will help you save time and often lives. | 体型的提高会帮助你节省时间和生命。 |
| 104 | Now a size up will look very different in a boardroom or at the kitchen table. | 现在,一个大小的会看起来非常不同 在董事会或厨房的桌子。 |
| 105 | What matters is that you identify the critical pieces of information and then you go out | 重要的是你找出关键的信息 然后出去 |
| 106 | and assess them. | 并评估它们。 |
| 107 | This may take a few moments or a few months. | 这可能需要几分钟或几个月。 |
| 108 | What's important is the order, that we establish a reliable base of information before we turn | 重要的是命令,我们建立可靠的信息基础 在我们转向之前 |
| 109 | our mind to an overall assessment. | 我们的头脑是总体评估。 |
| 110 | Then we can switch gears and call on our intuition to help guide us towards a great decision. | 然后我们就可以换掉齿轮,唤起我们的直觉,帮助引导我们做出一个伟大的决定. |
| 111 | Now this is the opposite of what we tend to do, right? | 现在,这是相反的 我们倾向于做什么,对不对? |
| 112 | Where we face a dilemma, our gut jumps in, hands us an intuition and we go out and see | 我们面临两难的境地,我们的肠道跳进, 给我们一个直觉,我们出去看看 |
| 113 | if we can confirm that intuition, which may be fantastic, or it might be just noise. | 如果我们能确认这个直觉, 这可能是美妙的, 或者它可能只是噪音。 |
| 114 | But turning our attention to it at this point can make it more difficult to see the best | 但现在把注意力转向它 更难看到最好的 |
| 115 | solution. | 解决方案。 |
| 116 | And we can experience this together. | 我们可以一起体验。 |
| 117 | So come with me on this. | 跟我来 |
| 118 | A bat at a ball costs $110 in total. | 一只球拍总共花费110美元. |
| 119 | A bat costs $100 more than the ball. | 一只蝙蝠比球还贵100美元. |
| 120 | How much does the ball cost? | 球要多少钱? |
| 121 | Now this question is designed to trigger your gut. | 这个问题会触发你的直觉 |
| 122 | It should be screaming in your ear, $10. | 它应该在你的耳朵里尖叫,10美元。 |
| 123 | Did you feel that? | 你感觉到了吗? |
| 124 | Now if you stopped and checked, you realize that can't quite be right. | 现在,如果你停下来检查, 你知道这不可能是完全正确的。 |
| 125 | That if the ball is $10, then the bat would have to be $110 and together it would be $120. | 如果球是10美元,那么球拍就必须是110美元,加起来就120美元. |
| 126 | And that's why only 14% of people get this question correct. | 这就是为什么只有14%的人能正确回答这个问题。 |
| 127 | But let's see if we can make it a little bit easier by adding a hint. | 但是,让我们看看,我们是否可以通过增加一个提示来让它变得更容易一些. |
| 128 | Now 34% of people get this question right, which is better, right? | 现在有34%的人理解这个问题, 哪个更好,对不对? |
| 129 | But it's still not great. | 但仍不妙. |
| 130 | So we can nudge people in the right direction. | 这样我们就可以把人们推向正确的方向。 |
| 131 | But now only 31% of people get the question correct. | 但现在只有31%的人理解问题正确. |
| 132 | But what has shocked me is what happens when you give people the right answer. | 但让我震惊的是 当你给人们正确的答案时会发生什么 |
| 133 | Now 77% of people get this question correct, which means that more than 20% of people are | 现在,77%的人 得到这个问题是正确的, 这意味着超过20%的人是 |
| 134 | given the solution, being told that it's the solution, and are getting this question incorrect. | 说这是个解决方案 这个问题不正确 |
| 135 | And what researchers conclude is that we fall in love with our intuitive solutions. | 研究人员的结论是,我们爱上了我们的直观解决方案。 |
| 136 | That our own ideas are great, right? | 我们自己的想法是伟大的,对不对? |
| 137 | So much so that even if a perfect solution is handed to us on a silver platter afterwards, | 如此之多,即使一个完美的解决方案 交给我们一个银盘之后, |
| 138 | it can be difficult to accept. | 很难接受 |
| 139 | There's a clue to how this all works in practice from an old wildfire. | 从旧野火中可以知道这一切的实践原理. |
| 140 | In 1949, a crew of smokejumpers became caught on a mountainside in Montana above a fast-moving | 1949年,一群烟儒在蒙大拿的山坡上被抓住了 |
| 141 | wildfire. | 野火。 。 。 |
| 142 | And they did what I think any of us would in that situation, they ran. | 他们做了我认为我们任何人 在那种情况下,他们跑。 |
| 143 | And it became a race for them to reach the top of the hill before the fire caught up with them. | 成为他们的种族 在火扑灭他们之前到达山顶 |
| 144 | Now their leader was a fellow named Wag Dodge, and he soon realized that they were going | 现在他们的首领是叫瓦格·道奇的人 他很快意识到他们要去 |
| 145 | to lose that race. | 输掉比赛。 |
| 146 | And so he stopped and made an unintuitive decision. | 于是他停下来,做了一个不直觉的决定. |
| 147 | He lit a match at his own feet. | 他用自己的脚点燃火柴 |
| 148 | His idea was that if we burn off the fuel, when the main fire arrives, it'll burn around | 他的想法是,如果我们烧掉燃料, 当主火到来, 它会燃烧周围 |
| 149 | us and we'll be safe. | 我们不会有事的 |
| 150 | And he called out to the other smokejumpers, to his crew, to come and join him. | 他呼唤其他烟火者, 和他的船员, 来加入他。 |
| 151 | And they turned and looked at him, confused. | 他们转身看着他,感到困惑。 |
| 152 | And no one did. | 没有人这样做。 |
| 153 | They couldn't see what Wag saw. | 他们看不到瓦格所看到的 |
| 154 | They were blinded by their intuitive reaction to get out of there. | 他们被直觉的反应蒙蔽了双眼,想离开那里. |
| 155 | Now, Wag survived that fire unharmed, but the others were not as lucky. | 现在,瓦格幸免于难 但其他人并不那么幸运 |
| 156 | Now hopefully we never face a situation quite like that. | 现在希望我们永远不要面对这样的情况。 |
| 157 | But we all do face big decisions under uncertainty, where it's up to us and what we do matters. | 但我们都在不确定的情况下面对着重大的决定, 由我们决定,我们做什么才重要。 |
| 158 | And what I've discovered is that more information may not be the answer. | 我发现,更多的信息可能不是答案。 |
| 159 | And that a small tweak to the way that we use our intuition can make it much easier | 我们利用直觉的方式 微微微的微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微微 |
| 160 | to guide us towards better decisions. | 指导我们作出更好的决定。 |
| 161 | Instead of having an intuition and looking at the world through it, start by looking | 而不是直觉 和通过它观察世界, 首先看 |
| 162 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}然后探究一下你的直觉 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}这才是你的直觉 | |
| 163 | And so the next time we're at a boardroom or that kitchen table or an emergency operation | 所以下次我们到会议室 或厨房餐桌或急诊室 |
| 164 | center and we face that big decision, let's take a breath and start with a size up. | 我们面对这个大决定,让我们喘口气,从一个尺寸开始。 |
| 165 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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