下一个全球超级大国是谁？
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | I have a big question, which is, who runs the world? | 我有一个大问题,那就是,谁掌管世界? |
| 0:08 | It used to be an easy question to answer. | 昔以方便答问. |
| 0:12 | If you're over 45, like me, | 如果你超过45岁 像我一样 |
| 0:16 | you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants. | 你成长在一个由两个巨人主宰的世界 |
| 0:23 | The United States called the shots on one side of the wall, | 美国在墙的一侧开枪 |
| 0:27 | the Soviets set the rules on the other, | 苏联人制定了规则 |
| 0:30 | and that was a bipolar world. | 这是一个两极世界。 |
| 0:32 | It's very simple. | 很简单 |
| 0:35 | If you're under 45, | 如果你在45岁以下, |
| 0:37 | you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed, | 你长大的时候苏联已经崩溃了, |
展开字幕全文（222 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I have a big question, which is, who runs the world? | 我有一个大问题,那就是,谁掌管世界? |
| 2 | It used to be an easy question to answer. | 昔以方便答问. |
| 3 | If you're over 45, like me, | 如果你超过45岁 像我一样 |
| 4 | you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants. | 你成长在一个由两个巨人主宰的世界 |
| 5 | The United States called the shots on one side of the wall, | 美国在墙的一侧开枪 |
| 6 | the Soviets set the rules on the other, | 苏联人制定了规则 |
| 7 | and that was a bipolar world. | 这是一个两极世界。 |
| 8 | It's very simple. | 很简单 |
| 9 | If you're under 45, | 如果你在45岁以下, |
| 10 | you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed, | 你长大的时候苏联已经崩溃了, |
| 11 | and that left the United States as the sole superpower, | 美国成为唯一的超级大国 |
| 12 | dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power. | 支配全球机构并发挥原始力量。 |
| 13 | And that was a unipolar world. | 这是一个单极世界。 |
| 14 | And then about 15 years ago, | 大约15年前 |
| 15 | things got a little more complicated. | 事情变得有点复杂。 |
| 16 | The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman | 美国越来越不想成为世界警察 |
| 17 | or the architect of global trade | 全球贸易的设计者 |
| 18 | or even the cheerleader for global values. | 甚至是全球价值的啦啦队长 |
| 19 | Other countries were becoming more powerful, | 其他国家越来越强大, |
| 20 | and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like, | 他们可能越来越无视他们不喜欢的许多规则, |
| 21 | sometimes even setting new rules themselves. | 有时甚至会制定新的规则 |
| 22 | What happened? | 发生了什么事? |
| 23 | Three things. | 三谛. |
| 24 | Number one, Russia was not integrated into Western institutions, | 第一,俄罗斯没有并入西方机构 |
| 25 | a former great power now in very serious decline, | 一个曾经的大国 现在正在严重衰退, |
| 26 | and they are angry about it. | 他们对此感到愤怒。 |
| 27 | We can argue about whose fault that is, | 我们可以争论谁的错, |
| 28 | but we are where we are. | 但是我们到了我们的位置。 |
| 29 | Number two, | 二号 |
| 30 | China was integrated into US-led institutions | 中国并入美国领导的机构 |
| 31 | on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful, | 假设他们变得更加富有和强大 |
| 32 | they would become Americans. | 他们会变成美国人。 |
| 33 | Turns out, they're still Chinese. | 原来他们还是中国人 |
| 34 | And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that. | 美国对此并不特别满意。 |
| 35 | Number three, | 三号 |
| 36 | tens of millions of citizens in the United States | 美国数千万公民 |
| 37 | and other wealthy democracies felt left behind by globalization. | 以及其他富裕民主国家感到全球化所遗留下来。 |
| 38 | This has been ignored for decades, | 这几十年来一直被忽视, |
| 39 | but as a consequence, | 但结果, |
| 40 | they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate. | 他们认为,他们的政府和领导人更加非法。 |
| 41 | Now, if you look at all the headlines in the world today | 现在,如果你看看所有头条 今天的世界 |
| 42 | driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict, | 导致所有地缘政治紧张和冲突, |
| 43 | over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons. | 其中90%以上是因为这三个原因。 |
| 44 | And that's why today we live in a leaderless world. | 这就是为什么我们今天生活在一个没有领袖的世界里。 |
| 45 | But as we know, | 但正如我们所知, |
| 46 | that's not going to be with us for long. | 那不会与我们在一起太久。 |
| 47 | So what comes next? | 接下来呢? |
| 48 | What kind of a world order might we expect over the next 10 years? | 我们在今后十年里可以期待什么样的世界秩序? |
| 49 | Some of what I might say I think will surprise you, | 有些话我想会给你惊喜的 |
| 50 | because we're not going to have a bipolar or a unipolar | 因为我们不会有两极或单极 |
| 51 | or even a multipolar world. | 甚至是一个多极世界 |
| 52 | If we don't have one or two superpowers, | 如果我们没有一两个超能力 |
| 53 | we don't have a single global order. | 我们没有一个全球秩序。 |
| 54 | No, instead, we will have three different orders, | 不,相反,我们将有三个不同的命令, |
| 55 | a little overlapping, | 有点重叠, |
| 56 | and the third will have immense importance | 第三个将具有巨大的重要性 |
| 57 | for how we live, | 为了我们的生活, |
| 58 | what we think, | 我们的想法 |
| 59 | what we want | 我们想要的 |
| 60 | and what we're prepared to do to get it. | 和我们准备做什么来得到它。 |
| 61 | But first things first. | 但第一要紧 |
| 62 | Today, we have a global security order. | 今天,我们有一个全球安全秩序。 |
| 63 | And as you see from the map, | 从地图上看 |
| 64 | the United States and its allies are the most powerful players on it. | 美国及其盟国是其中最强大的角色. |
| 65 | The US is the only country in the world | 美国是世界上唯一的国家 |
| 66 | that can send its soldiers and its sailors | 能够派遣士兵和水手 |
| 67 | and its military equipment to every corner of that world. | 和它的军事装备 到世界的每一个角落。 |
| 68 | No one else is close. | 没有其他人是接近。 |
| 69 | China is growing in its military capabilities in Asia, | 中国在亚洲的军事能力不断增强 |
| 70 | though nowhere else. | 虽然没有别的地方 |
| 71 | Lots of American allies in Asia are concerned about that, | 许多亚洲的美国盟友都对此感到关切, |
| 72 | and as a consequence, | 因此, |
| 73 | they're becoming more dependent on the United States | 他们越来越依赖美国 |
| 74 | for a security umbrella. | 为安全伞。 |
| 75 | With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, | 随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰, |
| 76 | US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned | 美国在欧洲的盟友越来越担心 |
| 77 | and dependent on the United States and a US-led NATO. | 依赖美国和美国领导的北约组织 |
| 78 | The Russian military, of course, | 俄罗斯军方当然 |
| 79 | has been a greater global concern, | 是一个更大的全球关注, |
| 80 | much less so today, | 更别说今天了 |
| 81 | especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops | 特别是他们损失了超过20万人 |
| 82 | and all of that equipment, | 和所有这些设备, |
| 83 | and with sanctions making it extremely hard for them to rebuild. | 制裁使他们很难重建。 |
| 84 | Now, Russia and China and others have nuclear weapons, | 现在,俄罗斯和中国等国拥有核武器, |
| 85 | but thank God it is still suicide to use them. | 但谢天谢地 使用它们还是自杀的 |
| 86 | And as a consequence, | 结果 |
| 87 | our security order is a unipolar order, | 我们的安全秩序是单极秩序, |
| 88 | and it is likely to remain so for the next decade. | 今后十年,它很可能继续如此。 |
| 89 | Now, at the same time that there's a security order, | 现在,同时有一个安全命令, |
| 90 | there's also a global economic order. | 还有全球经济秩序。 |
| 91 | And here, power is shared. | 在这里,权力是共享的。 |
| 92 | The United States is still a very robust global economy, | 美国仍然是一个非常强劲的全球经济, |
| 93 | but the US can't use its dominant position militarily | 但美国不能在军事上利用其支配地位 |
| 94 | to tell other countries what to do economically. | 告诉其他国家在经济上做什么。 |
| 95 | The United States and China | 美国和中国 |
| 96 | are enormously economically interdependent, | 经济高度相互依存, |
| 97 | and so they can't control each other. | 所以他们不能控制对方 |
| 98 | You may be surprised to hear this, | 你可能会惊讶地听到这个, |
| 99 | but today, US-China trade relations | 但今天,美中贸易关系 |
| 100 | are actually at their highest level in history. | 实际上处于历史最高水平。 |
| 101 | Now, other countries in the world, | 现在,世界上其他国家, |
| 102 | a lot of them want access to US military muscle, | 他们中很多人想接触美国军队的肌肉 |
| 103 | but they also want access to the Chinese market, | 但他们也想要进入中国市场 |
| 104 | soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world. | 很快,到2030年,很可能是世界上最大的. |
| 105 | And you can't very well have a Cold War | 而且你还不能打冷战 |
| 106 | if the US and the Chinese are the only two that are prepared to fight it. | 如果美国和中国是唯一两个准备与之斗争的人 |
| 107 | Yes? | 是吗? |
| 108 | Yes. | 对 |
| 109 | So, the European Union has the largest common market, | 因此,欧盟拥有最大的共同市场, |
| 110 | and they set the rules, | 并规定了规矩, |
| 111 | and if you want to do profitable business there, | 如果你想在那里赚钱 |
| 112 | you listen to those rules. | 你听那些规则。 |
| 113 | India is playing a greater role economically on the global stage. | 印度正在全球舞台上发挥更大的经济作用。 |
| 114 | Japan still matters, too. | 日本仍然重要。 |
| 115 | And over the next 10 years, | 在接下来的十年里, |
| 116 | there will be a rise and fall | 会有升降 |
| 117 | of the relative capacities of these economies, | 这些经济体的相对能力, |
| 118 | but the global economic order is and will remain a multipolar order. | 但是,全球经济秩序现在和将来都将是一个多极秩序。 |
| 119 | Now, between these two orders are tensions, | 现在,这两个命令之间 是紧张的, |
| 120 | because the United States will use its power in national security | 因为美国将在国家安全方面运用其权力 |
| 121 | to try to bring more of the world's economies towards it. | 试图让更多的世界经济走向它。 |
| 122 | And we already see this starting to happen in semiconductors | 我们已经看到半导体开始发生这种情况 |
| 123 | and in critical minerals, | 和关键矿物, |
| 124 | 也许很快在TikTok。 | |
| 125 | The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position | 中国人想利用他们的商业地位 |
| 126 | to align more of the world diplomatically. | 以外交方式使世界更加一致。 |
| 127 | And Japan and Europe and India and everyone else will do their damnedest | 日本、欧洲、印度和其他人 都会尽最大的努力 |
| 128 | to ensure that neither of these two orders dominate the other, | 确保这两种命令都不主导另一命令, |
| 129 | and they will mostly succeed. | 他们将大都成功。 |
| 130 | Now, so far, I have spoken with you | 现在,到目前为止,我已经跟你谈过了 |
| 131 | about the two world orders we already see, | 关于我们已经看到的两个世界秩序, |
| 132 | but there's a third that is coming soon that's even more important, | 但还有三分之一即将到来 这更重要 |
| 133 | and that is the digital order. | 这就是数字顺序。 |
| 134 | And the digital order is not run by governments, | 而数字秩序不是由政府管理, |
| 135 | but by technology companies. | 但技术公司。 |
| 136 | We all know how much military support | 我们都知道有多少军事支持 |
| 137 | NATO countries have provided Ukraine during the war. | 北约国家曾在战争期间提供乌克兰. |
| 138 | But it's technology companies | 但这是科技公司 |
| 139 | that provided the tools allowing Ukraine to defend itself | 提供了乌克兰自卫的工具 |
| 140 | from Russian cyberattack. | 从俄罗斯的网络攻击。 |
| 141 | It's technology companies that gave the Ukrainian leaders | 是科技公司给了乌克兰领导人 |
| 142 | the ability to speak with their generals and their soldiers | 能够与他们的将军和士兵交谈 |
| 143 | on the front lines. | 在前线。 |
| 144 | If it wasn't for those technology companies, | 如果不是那些技术公司 |
| 145 | Ukraine would have been fully offline within weeks of the war, | 乌克兰本可以在战争后几周内全线下线, |
| 146 | and I don't believe President Zelensky would still be there today. | 我相信泽连斯基总统今天不会还在 |
| 147 | Technology companies determine whether Donald Trump is able, | 技术公司决定唐纳德·特朗普是否有能力, |
| 148 | in real time and without filter, | 在实时和没有过滤器, |
| 149 | to speak with hundreds of millions of people | 与亿万人民交谈 |
| 150 | as he runs again for the presidency. | 当他再次竞选总统时 |
| 151 | It's social media platforms | 是社交媒体平台 |
| 152 | and their ability to promote disinformation and conspiracy theory. | 以及他们宣扬虚假和阴谋论的能力。 |
| 153 | Without them, we do not have riots in the Capitol on January 6. | 没有他们,我们不会在1月6日在首都发生骚乱。 |
| 154 | We do not have trucker riots in Ottawa. | 我们在渥太华没有卡车司机暴动。 |
| 155 | We do not have a January 8 insurrection in Brazil. | 我们在巴西没有1月8日的叛乱。 |
| 156 | Technology companies increasingly determine our identities. | 技术公司越来越多地决定我们的身份。 |
| 157 | When I was growing up, it's nature and nurture. | 当我长大的时候,这是自然和培育。 |
| 158 | I mean, my deep and abiding emotional problems | 我的意思是,我的深刻和持久的情感问题 |
| 159 | either come from how I was raised | 要么来自我是如何长大的 |
| 160 | or some genetic failure. | 或遗传衰竭 |
| 161 | Could be both. | 可能是两个 |
| 162 | But today, our identities are determined by nature and nurture | 但是今天,我们的身份是由自然决定的 并培育的 |
| 163 | and algorithm. | 还有算法 |
| 164 | If you want to challenge the system, | 如果你想挑战这个系统 |
| 165 | you can't just question authority, as we were all told when we were growing up. | 你不能只是质疑权威, 正如我们都被告知, 当我们长大。 |
| 166 | Today, you have to question the algorithm. | 今天,你必须质疑算法。 |
| 167 | And that is a staggering amount of power | 这是惊人的力量 |
| 168 | in the hands of these technology companies. | 由这些技术公司掌握。 |
| 169 | What are they going to do with that power? | 他们要用这种力量做什么? |
| 170 | And that depends on who they want to be when they grow up. | 这取决于他们长大后想要成为谁。 |
| 171 | So if China and the United States work to exert much more power | 所以,如果中国和美国 努力发挥更多的权力 |
| 172 | over the digital world | 数字世界 |
| 173 | and technology companies in those countries align with those governments, | 以及这些国家的技术公司与这些国家的政府保持一致, |
| 174 | we will end up in a technology Cold War. | 我们最终会陷入一场冷战 |
| 175 | And that means the digital order will be split in two. | 这意味着数字顺序将被一分为二。 |
| 176 | If, on the other hand, | 如果,另一方面, |
| 177 | technology companies persist with global business models | 技术公司坚持全球商业模式 |
| 178 | and we retain competition between the digital and physical worlds, | 我们保持了数字世界和物理世界之间的竞争, |
| 179 | we will have a new globalization, | 我们将有一个新的全球化, |
| 180 | a digital global order. | 数字全球秩序。 |
| 181 | Or if the digital order becomes increasingly dominant | 或者,如果数字秩序 变得越来越主导 |
| 182 | and governments erode in their capacity to govern, | 政府治理能力受到削弱, |
| 183 | and we've already seen the beginning of this, | 我们已经看到了这个开始, |
| 184 | technology companies will become the dominant actors | 技术公司将成为主要的行为者 |
| 185 | on the global stage in every way, | 以各种方式在全球舞台上, |
| 186 | and we will have a techno-polar order. | 我们将有一个技术极化的秩序。 |
| 187 | And that will determine whether we have a world of limitless opportunity | 这将决定我们是否有无限机会的世界 |
| 188 | or a world without freedom. | 或者没有自由的世界 |
| 189 | Now, at this point in my speech, | 现在,在我的演讲中, |
| 190 | I'm supposed to talk about the good news. | 我应该谈谈好消息 |
| 191 | But those of you that have heard this know that that is not coming. | 但你们中听到这些的人知道,这不会发生。 |
| 192 | There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies. | 这些爆炸性和破坏性技术没有暂停按钮。 |
| 193 | I don't know if you know this, | 我不知道,如果你知道这一点, |
| 194 | there are over a hundred people in the world today | 今天世界上有一百多人 |
| 195 | with the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus. | 拥有创造新天花病毒的知识和技术 |
| 196 | Honestly, I don't have answers. | 老实说 我没有答案 |
| 197 | But I have a few questions for the people that do. | 但我有些问题要问给那些做的人 |
| 198 | Because these technology companies are not just Fortune 50 and 100 actors. | 因为这些技术公司不仅仅是财富50和100个角色. |
| 199 | These technology titans are not just men worth 50 or 100 billion dollars or more, | 这些科技不只是价值500或1000亿美元或更多的男人 |
| 200 | they are increasingly the most powerful people on the planet | 他们日益成为地球上最强大的人 |
| 201 | with influence over our futures. | 对我们的未来有影响 |
| 202 | And we need to know, | 我们需要知道, |
| 203 | are they going to act accountably | 他们是否要负责任行事 |
| 204 | as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence? | 他们释放出新的和强大的人工智能? |
| 205 | What are they going to do with this unprecedented amount of data | 他们要怎么处理这个前所未有的数据? |
| 206 | that they are collecting on us and our environment? | 他们正在收集我们和我们的环境? |
| 207 | And the one that I think should concern us all right now the most, | 我认为最值得我们关心的是 |
| 208 | will they persist with these advertising models | 他们会坚持这些广告模式 |
| 209 | driving so much revenues that are turning citizens into products | 驱动这么多的收入 正在把公民变成产品 |
| 210 | and driving hate and misinformation | 驱使仇恨和错误信息 |
| 211 | and ripping apart our society? | 撕裂我们的社会? |
| 212 | When I was a student back in 1989 and the wall fell, | 1989年我当学生时 墙塌了 |
| 213 | the United States was the principal exporter of democracy in the world. | 美国是世界上民主的主要出口国。 |
| 214 | Not always successfully, often hypocritically, | 并不总是成功的,常常是虚伪的, |
| 215 | but number one, nonetheless. | 不过是第一 |
| 216 | Today, the United States has become the principal exporter | 今天,美国已成为主要出口国。 |
| 217 | of tools that destroy democracy. | 摧毁民主的工具。 |
| 218 | The technology leaders who create and control these tools, | 创造和控制这些工具的技术领导者, |
| 219 | are they OK with that? | 他们同意吗? |
| 220 | Or are they going to do something about it? | 还是他们要做点什么? |
| 221 | We need to know. | 我们需要知道。 |
| 222 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
该视频共有字幕 222 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格