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AI如何颠覆互联网?

AI如何颠覆互联网?

AI如何颠覆互联网?

发布于 2026-09-03 · 时长 12:41

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:04The internet is an absolute miracle.互联网是一个绝对奇迹。
0:07And for the last 30 years,过去30年里
0:10it has been driven by a very consistent and fundamental business model它受到非常一致和基本的商业模式的驱动
0:15that has given us everything amazing about the internet这给了我们所有关于互联网的奇妙之处
0:18and everything not so amazing as well.和一切不 如此惊人的一样。
0:21I run a company that provides a lot of the internet's infrastructure.我经营一个公司,提供 互联网的许多基础设施。
0:25And as a result, it means three things.亦由此说三事.
0:27One, we've had this unique view第一,我们有一个独特的观点
0:31into what is going on online.进入网上正在发生的事情。
0:34Two, we care enormously about the success of the internet.第二,我们非常关心互联网的成功。
展开字幕全文(281 条)
序号英文中文
1The internet is an absolute miracle.互联网是一个绝对奇迹。
2And for the last 30 years,过去30年里
3it has been driven by a very consistent and fundamental business model它受到非常一致和基本的商业模式的驱动
4that has given us everything amazing about the internet这给了我们所有关于互联网的奇妙之处
5and everything not so amazing as well.和一切不 如此惊人的一样。
6I run a company that provides a lot of the internet's infrastructure.我经营一个公司,提供 互联网的许多基础设施。
7And as a result, it means three things.亦由此说三事.
8One, we've had this unique view第一,我们有一个独特的观点
9into what is going on online.进入网上正在发生的事情。
10Two, we care enormously about the success of the internet.第二,我们非常关心互联网的成功。
11And three, I think I can share with you三,我想我可以跟你分享
12some of how that underlying business model is changing一些潜在的商业模式正在发生变化
13and why it's important.以及为什么这很重要。
14Because as that business model changes,因为随着商业模式的改变
15it's going to have a dramatic effect on what the internet is,这会给互联网带来戏剧性的影响
16but beyond that, on what content is created,但除此之外,关于什么内容是创造的,
17on what journalists get compensated for,关于记者得到什么补偿,
18on how researchers are able to do their research.研究者如何进行研究。
19And so it's up to all of us,所以这取决于我们所有人,
20as that business model of the internet changes,随着互联网的商业模式的改变,
21to make sure it changes for something we want确保它改变的东西,我们希望
22and can learn from the mistakes that we had in the past.可以从我们过去的错误中吸取教训。
23So to review the past, let's look at what that business model was,因此,回顾过去, 让我们看看那个商业模式是什么,
24and we all know it, basically,我们都知道,基本上,
25which was the internet was built on.互联网是建立在这个基础上的。
26We took an idea and we put it online,我们想到了一个想法,我们把它上网,
27and then we drove traffic to that idea.然后我们把车开到那个地方
28And then from that traffic,然后从交通中,
29we either sold things, subscriptions or ads.我们要么卖东西, 订阅或广告。
30And it's been pretty amazing to watch和它的非常惊人的观看
31how that has very much driven the growth of the web如何极大地推动了网络的发展
32and the growth of the internet over time,互联网随时间推移而增长,
33and it's survived a number of dramatic platform shifts.它在几个戏剧性的平台转变中幸存下来.
34We all started browsing the internet on browsers,我们都开始浏览浏览器上的互联网,
35on our desktop or laptop,我们的桌面或笔记本电脑,
36that transition to be increasingly social media,向日益成为社交媒体的过渡,
37which was the interface through which we consumed content,那是我们消费内容的界面
38and then we went to consuming it through our mobile devices.然后我们通过移动设备去消耗它。
39And yet, through all of this,然而 通过这一切
40the humble banner ad has basically financed it all.谦卑的旗号广告基本上资助了这一切。
41Traffic has been the currency of the internet,交通一直是互联网的货币,
42and that's what everyone has built their content to try to achieve.这也是每个人都建立的内容 试图实现。
43And if we want to look for who's the Superman,如果我们想寻找谁是超人,
44who's the superhero that has driven this for the last 27 years,谁是超级英雄 在过去的27年里,
45that has been Google.这是谷歌。
46Google built not only the search engine to index,谷歌不仅建立了搜索引擎来索引,
47how the internet works,互联网是如何运作的,
48but then they built the monetization system但后来他们建立了货币化系统
49to actually ensure that content creators got paid实际确保内容创建者获得报酬
50for the traffic that they generated.因为他们创造的交通。
51The internet owes a ton to Google in the last 27 years.互联网在过去27年里欠谷歌一吨。
52But the world is changing.但世间变化.
53AI is the top of du jour.AI是杜约尔的顶部。
54And what I think a lot of people don't understand我觉得很多人不明白
55is that AI is yet another platform shift.AI是另一个平台转变。
56Think about how much more of the way that you consume information already想想你已经消费了多少信息
57is looking at your AI chatbot,看着你的人工智能聊天机
58and how much more of that will be the case in the future.以及今后还会有多少情况。
59We can see it in a lot of things we do kind of normally,我们可以在很多事情中看到它 我们通常做的,
60like this is a Google search from the early days of Google.这是谷歌早期的谷歌搜索
61Not even that long ago,还没多久
62when I would type something in, like when was the first head conference,当我输入一些东西, 像什么时候是第一次头会,
63and then I would get back basically a treasure map然后我就能拿回一张藏宝图
64where I would have to continue to do the work在那里,我将不得不继续做的工作
65and click on the links generating traffic to find what my answer was.点击生成流量的链接 找到我的答案
66The search wasn't over when the results returned.搜索结果回来时没有结束.
67That was just the beginning, and you had to follow the treasure map.这只是开始,你必须遵循宝藏图。
68That's what a search engine is.搜索引擎就是这样
69Today, we have something very different.今天,我们有些非常不同的东西。
70We have something that's closer to what I would call an answer engine,我们有更接近我所说的答录引擎的东西
71where you're getting the answer directly on the page.在页面上直接得到答案。
72And what's amazing about that is that as a consumer, it's better for you.令人惊奇的是 作为一个消费者,这对你更好。
73But what's terrifying about it但有什么可怕的东西
74is that it means traffic isn't going to the publisher's sites,意思是交通不通到出版社的网站
75and traffic is the currency of the internet.交通是互联网的货币
76And so 18 months ago, publishers called us and said,18个月前 出版商给我们打电话说
77are you seeing this too?你也看到了吗?
78And I have to confess, we weren't really paying a ton of attention,我不得不承认,我们并没有真正注意,
79but we went into our logs, we went into our data,但我们进入我们的日志, 我们进入我们的数据,
80we pulled out that information,我们拿出了信息,
81and we said, how much harder is it to get traffic我们说,交通有多难
82based on the same amount of content today根据今天相同的内容
83than it was with the Google of old?而不是和古老的谷歌一样?
84And the answer is it's 5.2 times harder to get traffic答案是 交通交通困难5.2倍
85for the same amount of content that was out there.对于同样数量的内容 在那里。
86But that's the good news.但这是好消息。
87That's with Google.这是与谷歌。
88和OpenAI有什么关系?
89750 times harder.750倍难.
90是什么与Anthropic吗?
9132,000 times harder.三万二千倍难.
92The answer engines are giving the answers,答案引擎正在给出答案,
93and people aren't following the footnotes.并且人们没有遵守脚注。
94And this was 18 months ago.这是18个月前的事了
95What's happened since?之后发生了什么?
96Has it got better or worse?变好还是变坏?
97Do you trust AI more today than you did 18 months ago?你今天比18个月前更信任AI吗?
98The answer is most people do,答案是大多数人都这样做,
99and as a result, it's actually gotten twice as hard结果,它实际上增加了两倍的难度
100to get traffic to content that's there.让流量达到里面的内容
101You're not following the footnotes anymore.你不再跟随脚注了
102You're actually trusting that the AI systems are giving you the right answer,你相信人工智能系统会给你正确答案
103and that's destroying media.这正在摧毁媒体。
104Across the board, we're seeing reported numbers我们从头到尾看到报告的数字
105where media companies are seeing between a 90 and 30 percent decline媒体公司出现90%至30%的下降
106in the traffic to their sites.在交通 他们的遗址。
107And this is extremely problematic,这很成问题
108because I think journalists deserve to be able to eat.因为我认为记者应该能吃东西
109And fundamentally, if the internet is built on traffic基本上,如果互联网是建立在交通上
110and this new business model isn't delivering traffic,而这个新的商业模式 并没有提供流量,
111then I'm not sure how media is going to survive我不确定媒体会怎样生存
112unless we create a new business model.除非我们创建新的商业模式。
113And the good news is, the AI companies want journalism.好消息是AI公司想要新闻
114They want people out there doing research.他们希望人们在那里做研究。
115We all want journalism.我们都想要新闻。
116We want people out there doing research.我们希望人们在那里做研究。
117And so I think, I'm actually kind of optimistic,所以我觉得 我其实有点乐观
118that there might be a solution to this problem.这个问题也许有解决办法。
119And here's the way I think about it.这就是我的想法。
120For the first time in human history,人类历史上第一次
121we have a mathematical model of all of human knowledge.我们拥有所有人类知识的数学模型。
122It's not perfect, but that's essentially what all of the LLMs are.虽然不完美,但基本上所有LLMS都是这样.
123And I think of it like a giant block of Swiss cheese.我想它就像一大块瑞士奶酪。
124There's a lot of cheese, that's what we know,有很多奶酪,我们知道,
125but we also have a lot of holes in the cheese.但我们的奶酪也有很多洞
126Those are the things we don't know.这些是我们不知道的
127And the thing that is incredible is that what all of you want,不可思议的是,你们都想要什么,
128what I want, what the AI companies want,我想要的,AI公司想要的,
129is they want people out there filling in the holes in the cheese.他们想要有人在外边填补奶酪的洞
130They don't want you writing the story that has already existed,他们不希望你写已经存在的故事,
131they want you actually creating new knowledge.他们希望你创造新的知识
132I've talked to every one of them.我和他们每个人都谈过了
133They're all willing to actually pay for people他们都愿意付钱给别人
134who are creating new knowledge, creating new ideas.他们创造新的知识,创造新的思想。
135Ideas worth spreading.值得传播的想法。
136That's what this new system would reward.这就是这个新制度所奖励的.
137Compare that to what the business model of media is for the last 10 years,和过去10年媒体的商业模式相比,
138which is not filling in the holes in the cheese,里面没有奶酪的孔孔,
139but instead basically lighting the cheese on fire, right?但基本上把奶酪点着火,对吧?
140Incendiary cheese, right?燃烧奶酪,对不对?
141Yet another story about what happened at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue宾夕法尼亚大道1500号发生的事
142told in the most inflammatory way possible.以最煽动性的方式被告知。
143I've sat with media executives我和传媒主管坐过
144who brag about the fact that they create content for as little as possible,他们吹嘘自己创造的内容 尽可能少,
145and then write headlines that create the largest cortisol response然后写头条 创建最大的皮质醇反应
146so that you will click on them.以便你点击它们。
147That's not a world we should be celebrating.这不是一个我们应该庆祝的世界。
148That's not a world that's making the world better.这不是一个让世界更美好的世界。
149If, on the other hand, we actually celebrated如果,另一方面,我们实际上庆祝
150who is making the cheese bigger, who's filling in that,谁让奶酪变大, 谁填充,
151imagine in the future that you actually had AI companies想象未来你有AI公司
152that were measuring who actually advanced human knowledge mathematically以数学方法衡量人类知识的
153over the course of last year the most,在去年,最
154and we gave them an award,我赏赐他们一种报酬,
155we could call it the Big Cheese Award, right?我们可以称之为大奶酪奖,对不对?
156I'm not kidding.我没有开玩笑。
157Like, how amazing would that be?那会有多神奇?
158And you might be thinking, okay, Matthew, you're crazy.也许你在想,好吧,马修,你疯了
159Like, I'm the person who thinks AI is just destroying the world,喜欢,我是认为AI只是毁灭世界的人,
160and technology always makes things worse.技术总是让事情更糟。
161Let me share just two anecdotes that make me have some hope让我分享两个故事 让我有希望
162that this might actually be the case.可能确实如此
163The first starts 23 years ago.第一个开始是在23年前。
164Twenty-three years ago, the music industry had a huge problem.23年前,音乐产业出现了巨大的问题.
165Napster, Kazaa, 每个人都在偷音乐,
166and then Steve Jobs stepped on stage almost 23 years ago to the stage,然后史蒂夫·乔布斯在将近23年前走上舞台,
167and he said, we're going to do something different.他说,我们要做一些不同的事情。
168We're going to charge 99 cents per song,我们每首歌要收99美分
169and we actually say that you should be paying for the music you consume.我们实际上说,你应该支付 你消费的音乐。
170Now, that's not the business model that won,现在,这不是商业模式 赢了,
171but it was the start,但这是开始,
172and it turned into what is today Spotify and all the other systems它变成了今天的Spotify和所有其他系统
173that are out there, which is basically $10 a month,基本上每个月10美元,
174all-you-can-eat music,所有你能吃的音乐,
175and it's pretty amazing.和它的相当惊人。
176Last year, Spotify alone sent over $10 billion to music creators in revenue,去年Spotify给音乐创作者送了100多亿美元的收入
177which is, and again, that's in addition to titles,这也是除了头衔之外
178TikToks,YouTube, 所有苹果音乐,其他人。
179More money is going to music creation than any time in human history,比人类历史上任何时间都多
180so technology can be pie-expanding, and I think it's a model.所以技术可以扩大馅饼, 我认为这是一个模型。
181In fact, I thought it was so important that I flew up to Stockholm事实上,我觉得我飞到斯德哥尔摩很重要
182to meet with Daniel Ek, the founder of Spotify,会见丹尼尔·艾克 斯波蒂菲的创始人
183and he said, you know, it's pretty amazing.他说,你知道, 这是相当惊人的。
184We know when someone goes to Spotify and they type in Taylor Swift,我们知道当有人去Spotify 他们输入泰勒·斯威夫特,
185shake it off, that we can give them what they're looking for,摇动它,我们可以给他们 他们正在寻找的东西,
186but every once in a while, someone comes in and types in something like,但偶尔有人会进来打字
187I want a song about how much fun it is to dance disco with your cat.我要一首歌 说和你的猫跳舞有多好玩
188And nobody's written that, but they know that nobody's written that,没有人写,但他们知道 没有人写,
189and so they actually go back and they take those queries所以,他们实际上回去 并接受这些查询
190and they publish them back to music creators.他们把它们出版回音乐创作者。
191This is the moment you're all going to think you're doing life wrong,此时此刻,你们都认为自己做错了生活
192but there's a guy who lives in Denmark who makes 40 million euros a year但是有个住在丹麦的人 每年赚4000万欧元
193writing songs for unfulfilled Spotify queries,为未完成的Spotify查询编写歌曲,
194and I think that's beautiful.我认为这是美丽的。
195That's filling the holes in the cheese,奶酪里的洞都填满了
196because when I look for a song,因为当我寻找一首歌,
197when I look for something, what I'm looking for is an emotion,当我寻找的东西, 我在找的是一种情感,
198and this person is helping me find a song to resonate that way.这个人正在帮助我找到一首歌 以这种方式回响。
199And I think that's a model for what could happen as well.我认为这也是一个模式 可能发生的事情。
200Another story starts a little bit closer to home.另一个故事开始 离家有点近
201So this, this is the Park Record newspaper,这是"公园纪录报"
202the first place I ever saw my name in print,我第一次看到我的名字在印刷品,
203my hometown newspaper from Park City, Utah.我的家乡报纸 来自犹他州公园城。
204It was dying, so three years ago, my wife and I bought it.它正在死亡,所以三年前,我的妻子和我买了它。
205We did not buy it because we thought it was going to be a great business.我们没有买它,因为我们觉得 这将是一个伟大的生意。
206We bought it because we thought local news was important.我们买它是因为 我们觉得本地新闻很重要
207In fact, the only KPI, we had no financial KPI,事实上,唯一的KPI, 我们没有财务KPI,
208the only KPI we focused on was how much could we increase voter turnout,我们唯一关注的 科人阵 是怎样才能提高投票率,
209and the answer was we got it from the low 20 percent答案是 我们从低20%得到的
210to over 60 percent in the last election in three years,在三年的上一次选举中,超过60%,
211which is amazing, right?这是惊人的,对不对?
212Local news matters.地方新闻大事记.
213But here's the crazy part.但这是疯狂的部分。
214Terrible business, right?糟糕的生意,对不对?
215Except it's not.惟说不然.
216We're likely going to make more in 2026我们很可能在2026年赚更多
217off licensing our content to AI companies than we do off digital advertising.我们不给AI公司发许可证 比我们不做数字广告。
218Why?为什么?
219Because if you're traveling to Park City, Utah因为如果你要去犹他州公园城
220and you want to know what's the great new restaurant,你想知道什么是伟大的新餐馆,
221what's the cool band that's coming to town,什么很酷的乐队会来镇上,
222we're the only ones that have it.我们是唯一拥有它的人
223So think about how amazing that would be.想想那会有多神奇
224Think about how, if in the future,想一想,如果在未来,
225the business model of the new AI-driven internet新的AI驱动互联网的商业模式
226actually rewards the media we're all craving,实际上奖励媒体 我们都渴望,
227local, unique, original content.本地的,独特的,原始的内容。
228That's what I'm super excited about.这就是我非常兴奋的。
229But there are problems,但是有些问题
230challenges.挑战。
231It's kind of like any of the superhero films有点像超级英雄电影
232where the hero of the last movie becomes the villain of the next.上一部电影的英雄变成了下一部电影的恶棍
233And so our good friends at Google,我们谷歌的好朋友
234ugh,额...
235they are holding this back.他们挡住了这个
236They believe that they have a God-given right to all of the content online.他们相信,他们有上帝赋予的在线所有内容的权利.
237They shouldn't have to pay for any of it.他们不该付钱的
238And they have a huge advantage.他们有一个巨大的优势。
239In fact, it's hard to believe this,事实上,这是很难相信的,
240but every other AI company was actually started to oppose Google, right?但其他的AI公司实际上都开始反对谷歌,对吧?
241这就是OpenAI的开始.
242人类学刚刚从OpenAI,XAI转动.
243All of this was all to say,所有这一切都是想说,
244we can't let Google win this entire game.我们不能让谷歌赢得整个比赛
245How much of an advantage do they have?他们有多少优势?
246Well, we looked at this again,嗯,我们又看了一遍这个,
247and we found that every single page that OpenAI sees,我们发现OpenAI看到的每一页
248Google sees three, right?谷歌看到三个,对不对?
249Four for Microsoft, in Microsoft's case.四为微软,以微软为例.
250Five in Anthropics' case.五以安人论案.
251Twenty-one or twenty-two in XAI's case.卷21 22[杂曲歌辞·卷22] 谢AI案.
252An enormous advantage that Google has,谷歌拥有巨大的优势
253and they want to hold on to that advantage.他们想抓住这个优势
254In fact, they're playing incredibly dirty.事实上,他们玩的很脏
255They're saying to people who are content creators,他们告诉那些创作者
256you can't stop us from training on your content,你不能阻止我们接受关于你内容的训练
257or we will take you out of search.否则我们会把你带出搜索范围
258Horrible.骇曰.
259Superman, how far you've fallen.超人,你跌了多远?
260And so I was pretty depressed, I have to confess,所以我很沮丧 我必须承认
261thinking we're on the cusp of creating something amazing,以为我们正忙于创造出奇妙的东西
262on the cusp of creating a better internet.创造更好的互联网。
263And yet, I have to just realize但我必须意识到
264that no AI company's top priority is paying content creators.没有AI公司的重中之重 是支付内容创建者。
265What's their top priority?他们的首要任务是什么?
266Beating Google.击败谷歌.
267Which gave me an idea.这给了我一个想法。
268Kind of a wonderful idea.真是个好主意
269An idea which is going on right now, and it's working.一个正在发展的想法,它正在起作用。
270Which is, we're saying,这就是,我们说,
271don't charge for all the content that's out there.不收费 所有的内容在那里。
272Just charge the AI companies the ability to catch Google.只要向人工智能公司收取 捕获谷歌的能力
273And I don't think that's the end game,我不认为这是结束游戏,
274but I think it might be the iTunes moment.但我认为这可能是iTunes的时刻。
275It might be the point that shows us content is worth paying for,这或许是显示内容值得付出的一点,
276everyone should be out there,每个人都应该在那里,
277and we can create a better business model for the internet.我们可以为互联网创造一个更好的商业模式。
278And so I am hopeful that on this stage, not too long from now,所以我希望在这个阶段 不久之后
279I get to hand out one of the first big cheese awards.我要颁发第一个大奶酪奖
280And I really appreciate it.我真的很感谢
281Thank you.谢谢
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