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为什么我们无法“治愈”癌症?

为什么我们无法“治愈”癌症?

为什么我们无法“治愈”癌症?

发布于 2026-07-17 · 时长 15:58

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:00Yes, we can't cure cancer, not now, probably not in your lifetime, and the reason has nothing是的,我们无法治愈癌症,不是现在, 可能不会在你生命中,
0:07to do with money or willpower.钱或意志力
0:09The pitch you've heard for 50 years, cancer is one breakthrough away, AI plus CRISPR plus50年来你听到的 癌症是一个突破 AI加CRISPR加
0:16mRNA equals a finish line, runs on a category error.mRNA等于一个终点,运行在分类错误上.
0:21Cancer isn't a disease you cure, it is evolution by natural selection running inside your body癌症不是你治愈的疾病,而是通过自然选择在身体里进行进化
0:28on Fast Forward.在快速前进。
0:29Every treatment that kills 99% of the cancer breeds the 1% that survive.每一次杀死99%的癌症的治疗 都会产生1%的存活率。
0:36In 1971, Richard Nixon signed the National Cancer Act and called it a moonshot, with1971年,理查德·尼克松签署"国家癌症法案",并称其为"月光照",与"N.
0:43advocates promising meaningful progress by the American Bicentennial.主张美国二百周年取得有意义的进展。
0:4755 years and roughly $200 billion of public funding later, pancreatic cancer's five-year55年后 大约2000亿美元的公共资金 胰腺癌五年
展开字幕全文(246 条)
序号英文中文
1Yes, we can't cure cancer, not now, probably not in your lifetime, and the reason has nothing是的,我们无法治愈癌症,不是现在, 可能不会在你生命中,
2to do with money or willpower.钱或意志力
3The pitch you've heard for 50 years, cancer is one breakthrough away, AI plus CRISPR plus50年来你听到的 癌症是一个突破 AI加CRISPR加
4mRNA equals a finish line, runs on a category error.mRNA等于一个终点,运行在分类错误上.
5Cancer isn't a disease you cure, it is evolution by natural selection running inside your body癌症不是你治愈的疾病,而是通过自然选择在身体里进行进化
6on Fast Forward.在快速前进。
7Every treatment that kills 99% of the cancer breeds the 1% that survive.每一次杀死99%的癌症的治疗 都会产生1%的存活率。
8In 1971, Richard Nixon signed the National Cancer Act and called it a moonshot, with1971年,理查德·尼克松签署"国家癌症法案",并称其为"月光照",与"N.
9advocates promising meaningful progress by the American Bicentennial.主张美国二百周年取得有意义的进展。
1055 years and roughly $200 billion of public funding later, pancreatic cancer's five-year55年后 大约2000亿美元的公共资金 胰腺癌五年
11survival rate sits at 13%.存活率为13%。
12The reason isn't that we're behind, it's that we've been fighting the wrong shape of the problem.原因并不是我们落后,而是我们一直在与问题的错误形态作斗争.
13Start with the word itself, cancer, singular, as if naming it makes it one thing, it isn't.从这个词本身开始, 癌症,单数, 仿佛命名它使它 一件事情,它不是。
14The word covers something like 200 distinct diseases that share exactly one trait, cells这个词覆盖了200种不同的疾病 有着一个特征,细胞
15multiplying, when they shouldn't.乘,当不应.
16That is the entire common feature, beyond that, the cancer in a smoker's lung and the cancer这是整个共同的特征, 除此之外, 癌症在吸烟者的肺和癌症
17in a child's bone marrow have less in common, biologically, than a hummingbird and a shark.与蜂鸟和鲨鱼相比,孩子的骨髓在生物学上没有那么常见。
18Baird Vogelstein at John Hopkins spent the 1990s mapping what actually goes wrong inside tumors.约翰·霍普金斯的贝尔德·沃格尔斯坦(Baird Vogelstein) 在1990年代绘制了肿瘤内部实际出错的地图。
19His lab found that even a single colorectal tumor, one tumor in one person, typically他的实验室发现,即使是单一的直肠肿瘤, 一个人的肿瘤,通常
20carries between 30 and 70 distinct mutations.携带着30到70个不同的突变
21Each tumor is genetically its own snowflake.每一个肿瘤都是遗传性的 自己的雪花。
22Two patients with what the pathologist labels as Stage 3 colon cancer are often carrying两个病理学家称之为第三级结肠癌的病人经常携带
23diseases that share a name and almost nothing else.疾病是同一个名字,几乎没有别的。
24Take breast cancer, the example everyone knows.以乳腺癌为例,大家都知道
25The pathologist's label hides at least four molecularly different illnesses, Luminal A,病理学家的标签 隐藏至少四个分子不同的疾病, Luminal A,
26Luminal B, HER2-enriched, and triple negative.低气压B,HER2浓缩,和三阴性。
27Each one responds to different drugs, has different prognosis, and is in any meaningful每个人对不同的药物的反应, 不同的预后,在任何有意义的
28sense a different disease.感觉一种不同的疾病。
29The chemotherapy that saves a HER2-positive patient does very little for triple negative.救出HER2-阳性病人的化疗对三阴性作用很小.
30Same word on the chart, different biology underneath.图表上的同一个词, 不同的生物学下面。
31This is why a treatment that works miraculously for one woman with breast cancer does nothing这就是为什么一个乳癌女性的治疗是奇迹般的
32for the woman in the next room.给隔壁房间的女人
33Not because the medicine failed her, because she did not have the same disease.不是因为药让她失望 因为她没有同样的病
34And this isn't a problem clever oncology can solve.这不是一个聪明的肿瘤学可以解决的问题。
35It is a categorization mistake baked in centuries ago.这是几百年前发生的分类错误。
36We named cancers by where they started, lung and breast and pancreas, because that's all我们用癌症的发源地命名了 肺、乳腺和胰腺
37the doctors of the 1800s could see.1800年代的医生可以看见
38Modern molecular biology shows that a lung tumor with a particular mutation profile responds现代分子生物学显示,具有特定突变特征的肺瘤反应
39to drugs that work on melanoma.治疗黑色素瘤的药物
40While two lung cancers in adjacent hospital beds may need entirely different chemotherapies,虽然邻近医院病床上的两种肺癌可能需要完全不同的化疗,
41the taxonomy was always a fiction.分类学一向是虚构的
42We just didn't have microscopes good enough to see through it.我们只是没有显微镜 足够看穿它。
43So the first wall is linguistic before it is biological.所以第一道墙在生物化之前是语言化的.
44We say cure cancer the same way someone might say cure infection.我们说治愈癌症 就像有人说治愈感染一样
45There is no cure for infection.感染无法治愈。
46There are cures for specific infections, sometimes, when we're lucky and the pathogen cooperates.有治疗特定感染的药,有时, 当我们幸运,病原体合作。
47Cancer is the same kind of word, hiding the same kind of plurality.癌症是同一个词,隐藏着同样的多元性。
48Now the deeper trap.现在更深的陷阱。
49Peter Noel, a pathologist at the University of Pennsylvania, published a paper in Science宾夕法尼亚大学病理学家彼得·诺埃尔(Peter Noel)发表了一篇关于科学的论文
50in 1976 with a title most people have never heard, but that quietly rewrote cancer biology.1976年的头衔 大多数人从未听说过 但那悄悄地重温了癌症生物学
51The Clonal Evolution of Tumor Cell Populations.肿瘤细胞群的克隆进化.
52Noel proposed something that sounds obvious in retrospect and was heretical at the time.诺埃尔提出一些在回顾中听起来很明显,在当时是异端的.
53A tumor isn't a clump of identical bad cells.肿瘤不是一团坏细胞
54It is a population, a small ecosystem.这是一个人口,一个小的生态系统。
55And like any ecosystem, it evolves.和任何生态系统一样,它会进化。
56Here's the mechanism, step by step.这是机制 一步一步
57A tumor starts when one cell picks up the wrong combination of mutations当一个细胞发现突变的结合错误时 肿瘤就会开始
58and begins dividing without permission.并擅自开始分割
59As that cell divides, daughter cells accumulate new mutations of their own.随着细胞分裂,女儿细胞会累积他们自己的新的突变.
60Some daughters carry changes that make them grow faster and they outcompete their cousins.一些女儿背负着变化,使得她们的成长速度更快,并且超越了表亲的能力.
61Some can slip past immune surveillance.有些人可以滑过免疫监视
62And those win too.那些也赢了。
63Within a few months, what looks like a single clump under the microscope几个月后 显微镜下看起来像一团
64is actually a forest of slightly different cells, each holding a slightly different genetic hand.实际上是一个小不同细胞的森林, 每个细胞的基因手都有小不同。
65Now you walk in with chemotherapy.现在你走进化疗。
66Chemotherapy is, mechanically, a selection pressure.化学疗法在机械上是一种选择压力.
67A drug that kills 99% of cancer cells99%的癌细胞死亡的药物
68leaves the 1% that happen to carry mutations conferring resistance.留下1% 碰巧带突变 产生阻力。
69Those survivors aren't damaged.那些幸存者没有受损。
70They're selected.他们被选中了
71They divide.他们分裂。
72Within months, you have a tumor naturally optimized to ignore the drug you just used.几个月内,你的肿瘤自然优化 以忽略你刚刚使用的药物。
73This isn't a failure of medicine.这不是医学的失败。
74It is natural selection doing exactly what it always does,这是自然选择 做它总是做的,
75just inside a human on the time scale of a single TV season.仅仅在人类体内 时间尺度 一个单一的电视季。
76Charles Darwin would have recognized this immediately.查尔斯·达尔文会立刻认出来的
77Cancer cells or organisms competing in an environment,癌症细胞或生物在环境中竞争,
78your body, reproducing with variation,你的身体,以变异的方式复制,
79and being selected for traits that help them survive.并被选为能帮助他们生存的特质。
80The fact that this evolution is killing the host is just bad luck for the host.这种进化正在杀死宿主的事实对宿主来说只是运气不好.
81The cancer doesn't care.癌症不关心。
82It can't care.它不能关心。
83Evolution does not have a plan beyond the next generation.进化没有超越下一代的计划.
84Carlo Maley at Arizona State University has spent his career arguing that亚利桑那州立大学的Carlo Maley 在他的职业生涯中一直认为
85the dream of curing cancer is incoherent for this exact reason.治疗癌症的梦想是不一致的 正是因为这个原因
86You can slow evolution and sometimes redirect it.你可以放慢进化速度,有时也会改变进化方向.
87You can occasionally corner a tumor into a genetic dead end.你偶尔可以把肿瘤 变成基因死角
88What you can't do is cure evolution itself.你不能做的是 治疗进化本身。
89Because the same process that produced humans over 4 billion years因为40亿年来人类的诞生过程
90is what's running inside the tumor.是肿瘤里面流着的东西
91Asking medicine to permanently outsmart natural selection要求医学永远超越自然选择
92is asking it to win a chess game where the opponent gets a new piece every move.要求它赢得一场棋局 对手每一步都得到新棋子
93And the move is fast.而动则速.
94In a metastatic tumor, hundreds of millions of cells divide each day.在一个元瘤中,每天有数亿个细胞分裂.
95Each division is a potential roll of the dice toward resistance.每一个师都可能是一圈 骰子对抵抗。
96By the time a doctor sees an MRI showing the cancer has come back,当医生看到核磁共振显示癌症已复发
97the genome of those cells has often shifted in ways the original biopsy could not predict.这些细胞的基因组经常以最初的活检无法预测的方式转移。
98The tumor that returns is not the tumor that was treated.返回的肿瘤不是治疗过的肿瘤。
99It's the tumor's grandchild with grievances.是肿瘤的孙子有怨言
100Reason 3 sits one layer deeper.理由三更深一层
101Where most popular cancer coverage refuses to go.最受欢迎的癌症保险拒绝去的地方.
102Cancer isn't an invader.癌症不是入侵者。
103It isn't a virus you can catch or a bacterium you can sterilize.它不是一个病毒 你可以捕捉 或细菌 你可以绝育。
104Cancer is your own cells doing what cells do, going slightly wrong.癌症是你自己的细胞 做细胞做, 略有错误。
105And the going slightly wrong isn't a malfunction.发生小错误不是故障
106It is statistically guaranteed.从统计学上说,这是有保障的。
107Here's the math.这里的数学。
108Your body contains roughly 37 trillion cells.你的身体含有大约37万亿细胞。
109An estimate worked out by the Italian biophysicist Eva Bianconi in 2013.意大利生物物理学家伊娃·比安科尼在2013年所作的估计.
110Most of those cells divide regularly.这些细胞大多经常分裂。
111Your gut lining replaces itself every few days.你的直肠每过几天就换衣服
112Your skin every month.你的皮肤每个月。
113Your blood cells constantly.你的血细胞不断。
114Every division copies about 3 billion DNA base pairs.每个师复制大约30亿DNA碱基对.
115And the copying machinery is staggeringly accurate,而复制机械 惊人准确,
116with an error rate somewhere around one mistake per billion bases.误差率大约为每十亿个基数一个误差
117Sounds great, until you multiply.听起来不错,直到你倍增。
1183 billion bases times trillions of divisions times decades of life.30亿基数乘以万亿的分裂乘以数十年的生命.
119The number of mutations your body accumulates by age 60 runs into the quadrillions.身体累积的突变数量在60岁前 进入四倍体
120Most do nothing.大多数人什么都不做。
121A few hit important genes.有几颗击中了重要的基因.
122Eventually, the wrong combination lands in the wrong cell at the wrong time.最终,错误的组合在错误的时间降落在错误的细胞中.
123And that cell becomes a cancer.细胞会变成癌症
124This is why cancer rates climb almost exponentially with age.这就是为什么癌症发病率几乎随年龄而成指数上升。
125It isn't bad luck so much as dice rolls finally hitting the wrong number after enough rolls.它不是坏运气 因为它的骰子滚 终于打错了号码 后足够的滚。
126Which raises a strange puzzle.这引起了一个奇怪的谜题。
127If cancer is a numbers game, large animals should be drowning in it.如果癌症是一个数字游戏,大型动物应该沉溺其中.
128A blue whale has roughly a thousand times the cells of a human.蓝鲸的细胞是人类的一千倍
129So, by the math, a whale should carry a thousand times the cancer risk.所以,从数学上看,鲸鱼应该承担癌症风险的一千倍。
130They don't.他们没有。
131Whales and elephants get cancer at roughly the same rate we do.鲸和大象的癌症率和我们差不多
132Sometimes even less.有时更无.
133This contradiction has a name.这个矛盾有一个名字.
134Peto's Paradox.彼陀跋陀罗经.
135After the Oxford epidemiologist Richard Peto, who pointed it out in 1977.在牛津流行病学家理查德·佩托(Richard Peto)于1977年指出后.
136The answer, worked out over the last 20 years,答案,在过去20年中,
137is that big, long-lived animals had to evolve better tumor suppression巨型长寿动物必须进化出更好的肿瘤抑制
138or they could not exist at scale.或无法在规模上存在。
139Elephants, in research led by Joshua Schiffman at the University of Utah,大象,在犹他大学的约书亚·希夫曼领导的研究中,
140carry roughly 20 copies of the master tumor suppressor gene TP53.携带约20份肿瘤抑制剂主基因TP53.
141Humans carry one.人类携带一个。
142Whales have stacked redundancies in DNA repair across multiple genes.鲸鱼在DNA修复中 堆积了重复 跨越多个基因。
143在罗彻斯特大学 由Vera Gorbanova研究的裸鼠
144produce a high molecular weight version of hyaluronic acid生成高分子量的hy酸
145that physically prevents their cells from packing densely enough to form tumors.能够防止细胞包裹的密度 足以形成肿瘤
146They are, in practice, almost cancer immune.在实践中,他们几乎是癌症的免疫者。
147You might think, fine, copy the elephants.你可能会想,好的,复制大象。
148Add more TP53.添加更多的TP53.
149Make humans naked mole rat proof.使人类裸鼠鼠证.
150But these adaptations are tangled into the entire genome.但这些适应被缠绕在整个基因组中.
151They evolved over tens of millions of years,它们在几千万年里进化,
152with side effects compensated by other mutations elsewhere.副作用由其他地方的其他突变补偿。
153You can't bolt them onto a human the way you'd add a feature to a phone.你不能像在手机上增加一个功能那样 把它们锁在人身上
154We're roughly stuck with the tumor suppression we have.我们被肿瘤抑制住了
155Plus whatever drugs can borrow from the outside.再加上任何药物都可以从外面借来.
156What strikes me about this, the line that doesn't get said cleanly,是什么让我很惊讶, 这条线没有被说得干净,
157is that humans are basically halfway at the ladder.人类基本上在梯子上
158Long lived enough that mutations accumulate,久而久之 突变积累,
159not big enough to have evolved heavy redundancy.体积不够大 无法演化出大量冗余
160Cancer is, more or less, the bill for hitting 80 in a body engineered to last 40.癌症大致上是 80 个被设计成持续40年的身体。
161There's a constraint nobody likes to talk about,有限制 没有人喜欢谈论,
162because it points out where the dream actually breaks.因为它指明了梦想真正破碎之处.
163Roughly 90% of cancer deaths aren't from the original tumor.大约90%的癌症死亡不是来自原肿瘤。
164They're from metastasis.他们来自元代。
165Cells that left the primary site, traveled through blood or lymph,离开主场所的细胞 穿过血液或淋巴
166and seeded colonies in lung, liver, brain, and bone.在肺、肝、脑和骨骼中播种
167A breast tumor doesn't usually kill you.乳腺瘤通常不会杀了你
168Breast cells growing in your liver kill you.生长在肝脏里的乳细胞会杀了你
169This part of the disease, in 2026, is mostly unsolved.这部分病情,在2026年,大多未解决.
170Modern oncology is genuinely good at the primary tumor.现代肿瘤学真正擅长初级肿瘤.
171Surgeons can cut it out, radiation can shrink it,外科医生可以切断它 辐射可以缩小它
172and chemo or targeted drugs can knock it back.化疗或定点药物可以击退它。
173Five-year survival for early-stage localized breast cancer in the U.S.美国早期局部乳腺癌存活5年.
174now sits at around 99%.现在占99%左右
175That's a real triumph.这是真正的胜利。
176And the Optimus case earns it.而"擎天柱案"得之.
177The collapse comes when the cells have already left.当细胞已经离开时 就会崩溃
178Stage 4 breast cancer five-year survival drops to about 30%.第四期乳腺癌五年存活率下降到30%左右.
179Pancreatic at the same stage runs 3%.同一阶段的胰腺素运行率为3%.
180Lung sits around 8%.龙坐8%左右.
181The numbers fall off a cliff because nothing in the toolkit数字从悬崖上掉下来 因为工具包里什么都没有
182reliably cleans up cells distributed across an entire body.可靠地清理分布在全身的细胞.
183Surgery can't excise 20 organs at once.外科手术不能同时消耗20个器官.
184Radiation can't dose the whole human.辐射不能给整个人类剂量
185And the chemotherapy dose required to kill every micrometastasis和化学疗法剂量 杀死每微米塔病
186would also kill the patient several times over.也会杀死病人几次
187Immunotherapy, the celebrated breakthrough of the last decade,免疫疗法 过去十年的突破
188helps roughly 20-30% of patients with certain cancer types帮助约20%-30%的癌症患者
189and barely touch as others.几乎不能和别人一样接触
190CAR-T cell therapy works almost magically for some blood cancersCAR-T细胞疗法几乎神奇地治疗一些血癌
191and has spent years failing to translate to solid tumors.并花了多年时间 未能转化为固体肿瘤。
192The headlines are real, they're also narrow.头条是真实的,也是狭义的.
193There's a worse layer underneath, the one oncologists call dormancy.下层更糟糕 一个肿瘤学家叫宿舍
194Riding slowly enough to evade every imaging tool we have,慢慢地逃过我们所有的影像工具
195they wake up when something we don't fully understand changes.他们醒来时,有些东西 我们不完全理解变化。
196A hormonal shift, a course of steroids,荷尔蒙转变 类固醇
197a drop in immune surveillance with age.免疫监控下降 随着年龄。
198This is why women treated successfully for breast cancer in their 40s这就是为什么40多岁的女性成功治疗乳腺癌
199sometimes recur in their 60s.有时在60多岁时会重演。
200Not new cancer, old cells, finally finishing the job.不是新癌症,老细胞, 终于完成了工作。
201There is currently no test that reliably finds these dormant cells目前还没有测试能够可靠地找到这些休眠细胞
202and no drug that reliably kills them.没有任何药物能可靠地杀死他们。
203We sit below the resolution of our best imaging我们坐在我们最好的影像的分辨率之下
204and below the threshold of our best treatments.并且低于我们最好的治疗标准
205And yes, the AI and CRISPR pitch keeps coming.是的,AI和CRISPR的投注 继续来。
206Faster sequencing, better drug design,更快的排序,更好的药物设计,
207models that predict which mutation responds to which compound.预测哪个突变对哪个化合物的反应的模型。
208All real, all useful, none of it changes the underlying physics.所有真实的,所有有用的, 没有改变基础的物理。
209AI can read a tumor's genome faster than ever.AI能够比以往更快地读取肿瘤的基因组.
210It can't stop the tumor's genome from mutating while the AI reads.它无法阻止肿瘤的基因组在AI读取的同时突变.
211The constraint isn't computational, it is biological.制约不是在计算 而是在生物学上
212So the actual ceiling becomes visible.因此实际的上限变得明显.
213We can detect cancer earlier and survive primary tumors better.我们可以更早地检测癌症 并能更好地存活
214We can extend life with metastatic disease by months, sometimes years,我们可以延长生命 与运动性疾病 几个月,有时几年,
215and keep moving the line.继续走
216What we cannot do is abolish it.我们不能做的是废除它。
217The framing of cure was always doing rhetorical work.治疗框架总是在做口头工作。
218Curing implies a state where the disease is gone,治愈意味着疾病消失的状态,
219the way polio is gone from a vaccinated population.脊髓灰质炎从接种疫苗的人群中消失的方式。
220Cancer can't reach that state because cancer isn't a separate thing.癌症不能达到这种状态 因为癌症不是另外一回事
221It's what cells do when they're copying machinery makes the unlucky mistake.复制机械时的细胞会做出不吉利的错误.
222In a body that has trillions of cells copying constantly在一个有数万亿细胞不断复制的身体中
223for decades in a long-lived animal that wants to keep being a long-lived animal.数十年的动物 想要成为长寿的动物
224Eliminating cancer means eliminating one of the basic statistical consequences消除癌症意味着消除一个基本统计后果
225of being a 37 trillion cell organism that lives to 80.是一个37万亿细胞生物 活到80个
226The thing oncologists actually pursue and rarely say out loud is more honest.肿瘤学家实际追求的,很少大声说出来的,更诚实.
227Push the average age at cancer death past the average age of every other cause of death.将癌症死亡的平均年龄超过所有其他死亡原因的平均年龄。
228Make cancer a manageable late-life condition like high blood pressure.使癌症成为像高血压一样可控的晚年疾病.
229Catch it early while the math still favors you.趁数学还有利于你 早点来
230Treat it long enough that something else takes the patient first.治疗时间足够长了,让病人先吃别的东西.
231That is the actual plan and it isn't cure, it is containment.这是实际的计划,它不是治愈,而是遏制。
23255 years into the war on cancer, the funding has done extraordinary things.在55年的癌症战争中, 资金已经做了非凡的事情。
233Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia, once a death sentence,儿童急性淋巴球性白血病 曾经是死刑
234is now survivable in over 90% of cases.现在,90%以上的病例是可以存活的。
235HPV-driven cervical cancer can, for the first time in human history,HPV驱动的宫颈癌在人类历史上第一次可以
236be functionally prevented in vaccinated populations.在接种疫苗的人群中进行功能预防。
237Decades have been added to lives that would have once ended in the first round.数十年的生活已经增加,而这种生活本来会在第一轮中结束。
238None of that is nothing, it just isn't the cure that was sold.这些都不是什么,只是不是被卖掉的治疗方法。
239Cancer is the price of being a multicellular organism with cells that divide,癌症是细胞分裂的多细胞生物的代价
240paid in installments, accelerated by age, and rewritten by every drug we throw at it.分期付款 逐年递增 重写每一种药
241There is no breakthrough that closes the bill, because the bill is built into being alive.该法案没有突破,因为该法案是活生生的。
242Every cell in your body is, right now, copying itself with errors.你体内的每一个细胞 都带有错误
243And the only reason you don't have cancer is that the wrong errors haven't happened yet.你没有癌症的唯一原因是 错误还没有发生
244If you'd rather see how the rest of medicine's promises hold up under physics,如果你宁愿看看其他的医学承诺 如何在物理学下兑现,
245subscribe.订阅。
246I cover what the press releases skip.我报道的是新闻稿所忽略的内容。
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