【双语音+文稿】美国各地隐藏的百万富翁——美国经济学家：Er
共 1 集
剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 【双语音+文稿】美国各地隐藏的百万富翁——美国经济学家：Er | 32:40 |
P1 · 【双语音+文稿】美国各地隐藏的百万富翁——美国经济学家：Eric Zwick p01 英文版 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | It's amazing to me if you look at Gallup's approval rating of institutions, small business | 你看看盖洛普对 机构,小企业的认可程度 对我来说是惊人的 |
| 0:06 | is more venerated than the military. | 比军方更受欢迎 |
| 0:09 | It's more venerated than the Supreme Court, the Congress, the media. | 比起最高法院,国会,媒体,更受好评. |
| 0:15 | There's like no institution that has higher ratings than small business. | 没有什么机构比小企业有更高的收视率. |
| 0:18 | What is a small business? | 什么是小生意? |
| 0:20 | What is small? | 什么是小的吗? |
| 0:20 | Small is in the eye of the beholder, right? | 小的在观众眼中,对不对? |
| 0:31 | Do you want to say your name and your job title for me, please? | 你想告诉我你的名字和职称吗? |
| 0:34 | My name is Eric Zwick. | 我叫埃里克・兹威克 |
| 0:35 | I'm professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of | 我是芝加哥大学 Booth学院的经济学和金融学教授 |
展开字幕全文（720 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | It's amazing to me if you look at Gallup's approval rating of institutions, small business | 你看看盖洛普对 机构,小企业的认可程度 对我来说是惊人的 |
| 2 | is more venerated than the military. | 比军方更受欢迎 |
| 3 | It's more venerated than the Supreme Court, the Congress, the media. | 比起最高法院,国会,媒体,更受好评. |
| 4 | There's like no institution that has higher ratings than small business. | 没有什么机构比小企业有更高的收视率. |
| 5 | What is a small business? | 什么是小生意? |
| 6 | What is small? | 什么是小的吗? |
| 7 | Small is in the eye of the beholder, right? | 小的在观众眼中,对不对? |
| 8 | Do you want to say your name and your job title for me, please? | 你想告诉我你的名字和职称吗? |
| 9 | My name is Eric Zwick. | 我叫埃里克・兹威克 |
| 10 | I'm professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of | 我是芝加哥大学 Booth学院的经济学和金融学教授 |
| 11 | Business. | 事业. |
| 12 | That's a good one. | 这是一个很好的。 |
| 13 | And you have some insanely interesting new research and novel data about wealth in America | 你有一些疯狂有趣的 新的研究和关于美国财富的新数据 |
| 14 | that I think fills in so many details about who is rich in this country and how they got | 我想可以详细描述 这个国家的富豪 以及他们是如何得到的 |
| 15 | that way. | 那边 |
| 16 | And it's helped me better understand how our society functions, like why it acts the way | 它帮助我更好地理解 我们的社会如何运作, 像为什么它的行为方式 |
| 17 | it does. | 对 |
| 18 | So I want to hear the story of how this came together and this begins back in 2014, right? | 所以我想听听这个故事 如何从2014年开始,对吧? |
| 19 | Yes. | 对 |
| 20 | We were brought in. | 我们是被带进来的 |
| 21 | This is my co-author, Owen Zadar, of the book and Danny Yagan, another friend of ours. | 这是我的共同作者,欧文·扎达尔,这本书和丹尼·雅根,我们的另一个朋友. |
| 22 | We're all newly minted economics, PhDs, tax policy nerds. | 我们都是新发明的经济学,博士,税收政策书呆子。 |
| 23 | We were brought in to work with folks at the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Analysis. | 我们被带去财政部税务分析办公室 和大家合作 |
| 24 | These are nonpartisan career economists. | 他们是无党派的职业经济学家。 |
| 25 | They wanted to figure out how much tax businesses paid in the United States, including a new | 他们想知道美国税商付了多少钱,包括一个新的 |
| 26 | category of businesses that had grown so much over the previous several decades. | 在前几十年中发展了这么多的企业类别。 |
| 27 | They didn't have the capacity because of the way the data was organized to answer this | 他们没有这个能力 因为数据是用来回答的 |
| 28 | question in a way that they were happy with. | 质疑的方式 他们高兴。 |
| 29 | And so we were brought in to basically help them with this data project and then to write | 所以,我们被带进 基本上帮助他们 在这个数据项目 然后写 |
| 30 | some papers with several of them studying different economic questions. | 有些论文,其中几个研究不同的经济问题。 |
| 31 | But initially, this tax policy project is sort of the foundation of the research that | 但一开始 这个税收政策项目 是研究的基础 |
| 32 | we did for the next decade and what's in the book. | 我们做了接下来的十年 和书里的内容。 |
| 33 | I want to set the scene a little bit 2014. | 我想把场景设定在2014年 |
| 34 | What skinniness were your genes at this time? | 你的基因在这个时候是什么样? |
| 35 | Genes were skinny ish, definitely black jeans, dark denim. | 基因是瘦的,绝对黑色牛仔裤,深色的阴茎。 |
| 36 | I think I was wearing black jeans. | 我想我穿着黑色牛仔裤。 |
| 37 | 我必须这么做 I had to. | |
| 38 | I love black jeans. | 我喜欢黑色牛仔裤 |
| 39 | I still wear black jeans. | 我还穿着黑色牛仔裤 |
| 40 | You know, they go in and out of style and just sort of like let it let it happen. | 你知道,他们进退两难, 就像让它发生一样。 |
| 41 | That's sort of my my vibe. | 那是我的感觉 |
| 42 | You know, I've been wearing gazelles since like high school. | 我从高中就穿瞪羚 |
| 43 | They're just going in and out, in and out. | 他们只是进出,进出。 |
| 44 | You're riding that wave. | 你骑的浪。 |
| 45 | I just have they just change the color every once in a while. | 我只是让他们偶尔改变颜色 |
| 46 | Nice. | 不错 |
| 47 | And the biggest songs were Happy by Pharrell and Fancy by Iggy Azalea. | 而最大的歌曲是帕雷尔的"快乐"和伊吉·阿扎莱亚的"芬奇". |
| 48 | I mean, Song of the Summer. | 我是说,夏之歌 |
| 49 | That was what I remember. | 这就是我记得的。 |
| 50 | We really wholeheartedly. | 我们真的全心全意。 |
| 51 | It was a simpler time. | 那时比较简单 |
| 52 | Happy and Fancy. | 欢喜与欢喜. |
| 53 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 54 | So you get assigned this kind of weird project. | 所以,你得到分配 这种奇怪的项目。 |
| 55 | Why did they not already have this data? | 为什么他们还没有这些数据? |
| 56 | Why was it so hard? | 为什么这么难? |
| 57 | The way this information comes in to the IRS, the business files tax returns that have all | 这种信息输入国税局的方式, 企业的税务申报单,都有 |
| 58 | the information for the business. | 企业的信息。 |
| 59 | They say we give this money to the owners. | 他们说我们把这笔钱给业主 |
| 60 | There's another set of data that sits in a different database with that link. | 另有一组数据与该链接放在不同的数据库中. |
| 61 | There's then the owners have their individual tax returns when they file at the end of, | 然后,所有者有他们的个人纳税申报表 当他们提交期末, |
| 62 | you know, in April or in September, and they have that information, another database. | 你知道,在4月或9月, 他们有这些信息, 另一个数据库。 |
| 63 | So the link across the three doesn't exist or it's sort of like very indirect, | 所以三者间的联系不存在 或者是间接的 |
| 64 | like the way this stuff gets stored. | 像这些东西被储存的方式。 |
| 65 | The links are getting chopped up into different columns and stuff. | 链接被切成不同的柱子和东西。 |
| 66 | So it's like a massive kind of data architecture jigsaw puzzle. | 这就像一个巨大的数据结构拼图。 |
| 67 | Oh, fun. | 哦,乐趣。 |
| 68 | Super fun. | 超级有趣。 |
| 69 | If you like puzzles, which I do. | 如果你喜欢谜题,我这样做。 |
| 70 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 71 | And what potential did you see in this project? | 你在这个项目上看到了什么潜力? |
| 72 | Like, what would this knowledge unlock for you? | 这个知识会为你解锁什么? |
| 73 | What was the promise of it? | 承诺是什么? |
| 74 | Yes. | 对 |
| 75 | So, you know, we're interested in, first of all, understanding how the tax code affects | 所以,你知道,我们有兴趣, 首先,了解税法如何影响 |
| 76 | the economy. | 经济 |
| 77 | We are interested in understanding entrepreneurship, sort of what drives growth and economic | 我们有兴趣了解创业, 是什么驱动增长和经济 |
| 78 | activity in new businesses. | 新企业中的活动。 |
| 79 | We're interested in what's driving income and wealth inequality. | 我们感兴趣的是 是什么导致了收入和财富的不平等。 |
| 80 | And so we're starting, you know, initially with how much tax these business owners pay | 所以,我们开始,你知道, 一开始,多少税 这些企业主支付 |
| 81 | and who owns them. | 谁拥有他们。 |
| 82 | And just in the process of answering that question, you realize, oh, this is a new way | 在回答这个问题的过程中,你意识到, 哦,这是一个新的方式 |
| 83 | to look at income inequality in the country. | 研究国内的收入不平等。 |
| 84 | Like, this is a new way to look at who's really rich. | 这是看谁真的有钱的新方法 |
| 85 | This is a new way to look at the changes in income inequality over the last 30 years. | 这是审视过去30年收入不平等变化的新方法。 |
| 86 | You found three million people that are Main Street millionaires. | 你发现三百万人是主街百万富翁 |
| 87 | Is that what you call them? | 这就是你说的吗? |
| 88 | We call them the Main Street millionaires because they're running unglamorous businesses | 我们称他们为"主街百万富翁" 因为他们经营着不光彩的生意 |
| 89 | that you're more likely to find on Main Street or Metro Parkway, which was kind of the Main | 你更可能在主街或大都会公园里找到 那种主街 |
| 90 | Street where the commercial businesses were where I grew up. | 我从小就在那里做生意 |
| 91 | Then you are to find them on Wall Street or Sand Hill Road, which is like the famous | 然后在华尔街或沙丘路上找到他们 就像著名的 |
| 92 | venture capital street in Silicon Valley. | 硅谷风险投资街道. |
| 93 | And so we thought Main Street millionaires is really nice, sort of evocative. | 所以我们认为主街百万富翁 是非常不错的, 有点诱人。 |
| 94 | It puts a picture. | 画了一张照片。 |
| 95 | A lot of our metaphors are visual, want people to see the world as it is. | 我们的许多比喻都是视觉的,希望人们能像现在这样看待世界. |
| 96 | So these Main Street millionaires, they have an average wealth of twenty five million dollars. | 因此,这些主街百万富翁, 他们的平均财富是2500万美元。 |
| 97 | They are not coastal. | 他们不是沿海。 |
| 98 | They're not in New York and San Francisco. | 他们不在纽约和旧金山 |
| 99 | As you said, they are not in finance or tech. | 正如你说的,他们没有在金融或技术领域。 |
| 100 | They have a lot of like B2B business, business to business businesses. | 他们有很多类似B2B的生意,生意对生意. |
| 101 | Yes. | 对 |
| 102 | So we define a Main Street millionaire and everywhere millionaire as somebody who | 因此,我们定义主街百万富翁 和任何地方百万富翁的人 |
| 103 | owns a private business who has a net worth of at least five million dollars in terms | 拥有一家私人企业 净值至少500万美元 |
| 104 | of what the businesses are that they're operating. | 他们经营的生意 |
| 105 | So this was one of the things that our data was able to show for the first time. | 因此,这是我们的数据 第一次能够显示的东西之一。 |
| 106 | It's sort of like it's not a portfolio of many businesses. | 有点像不是很多企业的组合. |
| 107 | Right. | 对 |
| 108 | Like you could imagine a stock portfolio of some, you know, monopolist or | 就像你可以想象一些股票投资组合, 你知道,独资或 |
| 109 | something. | 东西。 |
| 110 | It's really exactly. | 这是真的。 |
| 111 | It's a they own one business, typically very concentrated position. | 这是一个他们有一个业务, 通常非常集中的位置。 |
| 112 | They're like, you know, either whole owner or half owner of a business. | 他们喜欢,你知道, 要么整个业主或半业主 一个企业。 |
| 113 | And it's in a very specific industry doing kind of specific set of things. | 在一个非常具体的行业里 做一些特定的事情。 |
| 114 | We call we do the ABC book is sort of like the like a little kids book is for auto | 我们叫我们做ABC的书 有点像一个小孩子的书 是汽车 |
| 115 | dealers. | 毒贩 |
| 116 | B is for beer distributors. | B是啤酒经销商的 |
| 117 | C is for contractors. | C是给承包商的。 |
| 118 | D is for dentists is for like electrical electricians. | D是给牙医的 就像电工 |
| 119 | Yeah, exactly. | 没错 |
| 120 | F is for French fries. | F是法国薯条。 |
| 121 | F is for there's there's like a, you know, a Ferris metal manufacturer that we'd | F是因为它有一个像,你知道, 一个Ferris金属制造商,我们 |
| 122 | like. | 喜欢。 |
| 123 | There's like Alfie heating. | 有像阿尔菲暖气。 |
| 124 | Yeah, they do like material components for. | 是啊,他们确实喜欢物质组件。 |
| 125 | Yeah, material components. | 是啊,物质组件。 |
| 126 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 127 | I don't really know exactly. | 我真的不确切知道。 |
| 128 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 129 | One thing that I love about your data set is that it really proves a thesis | 我对你的数据集最爱的一件事 就是它证明了一篇论文 |
| 130 | 和Gretchen Wiener的爸爸有关 | |
| 131 | What was do you not remember that? | 你怎么不记得了? |
| 132 | No, her dad was the fictional inventor of toaster strudels. | 不 她爸爸是烤面包机的虚构发明者 |
| 133 | That's a mean that's an everywhere millionaire. | 是个无处不在的百万富翁 |
| 134 | Totally. | 当然 |
| 135 | Yeah, totally. | 是啊,当然。 |
| 136 | There are 25 ultra rich auto dealers for every member of the Forbes 400. | 福布斯400车队的每个成员都有25家超富汽车经销商. |
| 137 | There are a lot of rich car dealers. | 有很多富有的汽车经销商. |
| 138 | So the car dealers are one of the characters that appears over and over again in the | 所以汽车经销商是其中的一个角色 一次又一次出现在其中 |
| 139 | book. | 书。 |
| 140 | And we were just very surprised by this because this does not strike us as | 我们对此感到非常惊讶,因为这并不让我们觉得 |
| 141 | like a new innovative industry or anything like that. | 就像一个新的创新产业之类的 |
| 142 | And then we kept encountering them on our various adventures. | 然后我们在各种冒险中不断遇到他们. |
| 143 | But at the very beginning of the book, we open with a 60 million dollar wedding. | 但是在书的开头,我们以6000万美元的婚礼开幕. |
| 144 | It's called the wedding of the century. | 这被称为世纪的婚礼. |
| 145 | And the family of the bride flew all the guests by jet private jet to Paris for the | 新娘的家人用私人喷气机 将所有客人飞到巴黎 |
| 146 | festivities, which were like four days. | 庆祝活动,就像四天。 |
| 147 | They rented out Versailles. | 他们租了凡尔赛 |
| 148 | Adam Levine sang the first dance. | 亚当·莱文演唱了第一支舞蹈. |
| 149 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 150 | That would be my pick. | 这是我的选择。 |
| 151 | I wouldn't know shade to Adam, but I would not. | 我不知道亚当的影子, 但我不会。 |
| 152 | That would not be my pick either. | 那也不是我的选择 |
| 153 | Killer Mike do weddings. | 杀手迈克做婚礼。 |
| 154 | That's a good pick. | 选得好 |
| 155 | But anyways, the royal wedding is not tech or finances, car | 但不管怎样 皇家婚礼不是技术或财务 汽车 |
| 156 | dealers, third generation car dealers. | 毒贩,第三代汽车毒贩 |
| 157 | From Coral Gables. | 从珊瑚盖伯。 |
| 158 | And they're not like the top selling car dealers in the country at | 他们不像全国顶级卖车商 |
| 159 | the time before they sold. | 在他们卖掉之前 |
| 160 | So it's sort of like I think maybe people were not surprised that car dealers could | 所以,这有点像 我想也许 人们并不惊讶 汽车经销商可以 |
| 161 | be rich, but just how rich they can get, I think was pretty surprising to people we | 发财,但只要他们能发大财, 我觉得我们很惊讶 |
| 162 | talked to. | 说话。 |
| 163 | I think the scale of it is just hard to believe. | 我认为它的规模是很难相信的。 |
| 164 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 165 | Who were your favorite mainstream millionaires who you found? | 你最爱的百万富翁是谁? |
| 166 | I really love the story of John Osher, who built this five dollar electric toothbrush | 我真的很喜欢约翰·奥舍的故事 他造了这五块钱的电动牙刷 |
| 167 | business that he sold for hundreds of millions of dollars. | 他以亿万美元出售的生意 |
| 168 | Swish brush. | 斯维什笔. |
| 169 | The spin brush. | 旋转笔 |
| 170 | Spin brush. | 旋转刷子。 |
| 171 | Sorry. | 对不起 |
| 172 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 173 | His just arc is really entertaining because he started with toys, started making | 他刚开始玩玩具 开始制作 |
| 174 | toys. | 玩具。 玩具吗? |
| 175 | It was always sort of consumer products, big market, but not super fancy. | 它总是一种消费产品,大市场, 但不是超级花样。 |
| 176 | And then he'd sell them to big conglomerates once he had proved the market and they were | 然后一旦他证明了市场和他们 |
| 177 | growing really quickly. | 长得很快 |
| 178 | So he loved to kind of start something, find something, build it, prove concept, go to | 所以他喜欢开始一些东西,找到一些东西, 建造它,证明概念,去 |
| 179 | market, get it going, growing and then like exit so they can move on to the next thing. | 市场,得到它去, 增长,然后喜欢退出 这样他们就可以继续前进 到下一个事情。 |
| 180 | That's fun. | 这很有趣。 |
| 181 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 182 | Like that brain. | 就像那个大脑 |
| 183 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 184 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 185 | But the story of building that thing, the spin brush and putting it on | 但造那东西的故事, 旋转刷子和把它穿上 |
| 186 | shelves and basically how he's able to kind of take advantage of the successes from the | 书架和基本上他如何 利用成功的机会 |
| 187 | prior businesses that he started. | 他以前开始的生意 |
| 188 | So before that, it was the spin pop, which was like this vibrating lollipop. | 所以在那之前,是旋转的流行, 就像这个震动的棒棒糖。 |
| 189 | It's like kind of the same mechanism, but instead of rotting the kid's teeth, now he's | 这就像一种相同的机制, 但是不是腐烂的孩子的牙齿,现在他 |
| 190 | going to solve the problem that he created. | 解决他制造的问题 |
| 191 | That's so sweet. | 真贴心 |
| 192 | Which is really nice. | 这真的很好。 |
| 193 | It's sort of like a, you know, poetic justice. | 这有点像,你知道的,诗意的正义。 |
| 194 | I'm not sure he thought. | 我不确定他有没有想过 |
| 195 | Or you create the market and then you serve it, you know. | 或者你创造市场,然后你服务它,你知道的。 |
| 196 | Yeah, that's that's the darker take on and I'm I'm supportive that the data looks like | 是的,这就是更黑暗的承担 我支持数据看起来像 |
| 197 | that, too. | 这也是。 |
| 198 | The facts on the ground look the same. | 当地的事实看起来是一样的。 |
| 199 | A Beaver Applin is a funny one, too. | 海狸Applin也是个有趣的人。 |
| 200 | We can talk about him. | 我们可以谈谈他 |
| 201 | The only divergence in our outfits. | 我们衣服上唯一的分歧 |
| 202 | Yes. | 对 |
| 203 | So my wife's having a lot of fun with this project of mine. | 我妻子对我的这个项目很感兴趣 |
| 204 | She bought me these socks. | 她给我买了袜子 |
| 205 | They're so cool. | 他们好酷 |
| 206 | From Bucky's. | 从巴基的。 |
| 207 | Bucky's. | 巴齐的 |
| 208 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 209 | So I've got the Beaver there. | 所以我有海狸在那里。 |
| 210 | 巴基由Beaver Applin创立. | |
| 211 | So good. | 这么好 |
| 212 | A Texas A&M graduate who is sort of a builder, but whose grandparents ran a general store | 德克萨斯州A&M毕业生 算是建筑师 但祖父母经营一家普通商店 |
| 213 | and he was going to get a job as a construction worker on a project, but then the bid they | 他本来想在一个项目上找到一份建筑工人的工作 但后来的投标 |
| 214 | lost. | 输了 |
| 215 | And so he's like, I have to do something for a working start. | 所以他喜欢,我必须做一些事情 一个工作开始。 |
| 216 | Decided he was going to start a convenience store that sold gas with good fudge, with | 他决定开一家便利店 卖汽油和软糖 |
| 217 | fudge, barbecue, yeah, corn pop, beaver nuggets, like a bunch of different kinds of | 软糖,烧烤,是的, 玉米糖,海狸糖, 像一堆不同的种类 |
| 218 | jerk | |
| 219 | What I love about this is that it's actually delivering a quality product. | 我最喜欢的是 它实际上在提供高质量的产品。 |
| 220 | People love it. | 众生爱乐. |
| 221 | People love Bucky's and that's so sad. | 人们喜欢巴基的,那太可悲了。 |
| 222 | It's not a garbage product that people are just like, I got about like people choose | 这不是一个垃圾产品 人们只是喜欢, 我得到了像人们选择 |
| 223 | it on the highway in part because the gasoline is actually underpriced. | 部分是因为汽油价格太低 |
| 224 | It's a loss leader bringing people in and then they buy the higher margin stuff, the | 这是一个损失领头人带人进来, 然后他们购买了更高的利润, |
| 225 | very good margin fudge and whatever. | 不错的差价软糖之类的 |
| 226 | I also appreciate that it's an empire built on porcelain. | 我也很感激它是一个建立在瓷器上的帝国. |
| 227 | Indeed. | 没错 |
| 228 | So Bucky's one of the one of his early strategies was like, what's the | 所以Bucky的早期策略之一 就是说,什么是 |
| 229 | problem that I'm trying that I need to solve and to get people gas. | 我试图解决的问题 我需要解决和得到人气。 |
| 230 | OK, great. | 好吧,伟大的。 |
| 231 | When you're on a road trip and nature calls, you're nervous. | 当你在路上旅行和自然电话时,你很紧张. |
| 232 | You're very nervous, very nervous about, you know, where you're going to have to | 你非常紧张,非常紧张 关于,你知道,你要去 |
| 233 | answer that call. | 接电话 |
| 234 | Right. | 对 |
| 235 | This matters. | 这很重要。 |
| 236 | This matters, especially in Texas is a big state. | 这很重要,特别是在德克萨斯州是一个很大的州. |
| 237 | I know you've been there, been there. | 我知道你去过那里,去过那里。 |
| 238 | You're on the road a lot in Texas, driving from town to town. | 你经常在德克萨斯的路上 从镇上开到镇上 |
| 239 | Things are far apart. | 事情相去甚远. |
| 240 | Things are very far apart. | 事情离得很远 |
| 241 | Nature calls in between places. | 自然界在中间呼唤. |
| 242 | So he's like, OK, we're going to put a place where you can answer that call and it's | 所以,他喜欢,OK,我们要去一个地方 你可以回答这个电话,这是 |
| 243 | going to be safe and clean, like really clean. | 安全干净 就像真的干净一样 |
| 244 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 245 | Like as luxurious as you could imagine it | 就像你想象中的奢华 |
| 246 | being for a travel center, truck stop kind of place. | 是一个旅行中心, 卡车停留的地方。 |
| 247 | Right. | 对 |
| 248 | The bathrooms are going to be super clean, clean 24 hours. | 洗手间要非常干净 24小时干净 |
| 249 | They've got tush lights. | 他们有电灯 |
| 250 | Those are they light up if they're occupied. | 如果被占用,它们就会亮起来 |
| 251 | So you don't have to like look to see if somebody's legs are poking out. | 所以,你不必喜欢看 是否有人的腿 戳出。 |
| 252 | That's a quality product. | 这是优质产品。 |
| 253 | I have so much respect and gratitude for that, for those innovations. | 我非常尊重和感谢这些创新。 |
| 254 | I think that's a really that's a service to the people. | 我认为这真的是为人民服务. |
| 255 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 256 | So they're really they're really thinking about it. | 所以他们真的在思考。 |
| 257 | So you found all these mainstream millionaires, all these everywhere | 所以,你找到所有这些主流 百万富翁,这一切到处 |
| 258 | millionaires. | 百万富翁. |
| 259 | But how did they get so rich? | 但他们怎么会这么有钱? |
| 260 | What is the business structure that allowed them to get so wealthy? | 是什么商业结构让他们如此富有? |
| 261 | So we found them largely through they had organized as pass through business | 所以我们发现他们大部分通过 他们组织 通过业务 |
| 262 | owners and the pass through as a business that is not taxed at the entity level. | 业主和通过者是实体一级不征税的企业。 |
| 263 | The business doesn't pay any tax. | 企业不缴任何税. |
| 264 | So the income flows through to the owners and they pay tax. | 因此,收入流向所有者并纳税。 |
| 265 | So a traditional company, the company pays tax. | 所以,一个传统公司,公司支付税收。 |
| 266 | And then when they send money to owners, the owners have to pay additional tax like | 然后当他们寄钱给所有者时,所有者必须支付额外的税收,比如: |
| 267 | dividends, pass through business. | 股息,通过业务。 |
| 268 | It's called pass through because the income just passes right through them. | 这叫做通过,因为收入只是通过他们。 |
| 269 | And they don't pay tax. | 他们不交税 |
| 270 | The owners then have to pay tax on their share of the income that comes to them. | 然后业主必须缴纳其所得份额的税款。 |
| 271 | And then the tax rate that applies is not like a corporate tax rate. | 然后适用的税率并不像公司税率. |
| 272 | It's sort of the individual income tax rate that applies to the owner's income, | 这是个人所得税率 适用于所有者的收入, |
| 273 | which is lower typically than the corporate tax rate, which used to be in the | 通常低于公司税率,而公司税率过去是 |
| 274 | 1980s and actually all the way back to sort of the origin of the income tax. | 1980年代,实际上一直回到 所得税的起源。 |
| 275 | Higher than the corporate rate. | 高于企业利率. |
| 276 | But then the 86 Tax Reform Act brought the personal income tax rate down such that | 但后来86年的税制改革法案 将个人所得税税率降低到 |
| 277 | it was less than the corporate, the all in corporate tax rate for the first time. | 它比公司还低, 公司税率是第一次。 |
| 278 | Why do we have this? | 为什么我们有这个? |
| 279 | Originally in the 1950s, the idea was it might simplify tax filing because there | 最初在1950年代, 想法是它可能简化 纳税申报,因为那里 |
| 280 | wouldn't be an additional payment from the business for like a simple mom and pop | 不会像简单的妈妈和爸爸一样 成为企业的额外报酬 |
| 281 | shop. | 商店。 |
| 282 | Save you a step. | 省省脚步. |
| 283 | Save. | 救赎. |
| 284 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 285 | These entrepreneurs or self-employed people a step. | 这些企业家或自营职业者迈出了一步。 |
| 286 | And we in this country love small businesses. | 我们这个国家喜欢小企业。 |
| 287 | Small business is a paragon of American exceptionalism. | 小生意是美国例外主义的典范. |
| 288 | Why are you laughing so much? | 你为什么这么笑? |
| 289 | Tell the people. | 告众曰. |
| 290 | It's like sort of it's amazing to me. | 这对我来说有点不可思议 |
| 291 | If you look at Gallup's approval rating of institutions, this small business is | 如果你看盖洛普对机构的认可评级, 这个小企业就是 |
| 292 | more venerated than the military. | 比军方更受欢迎 |
| 293 | It's more venerated than the Supreme Court, the Congress, the media. | 比起最高法院,国会,媒体,更受好评. |
| 294 | Well, there's like no institution that has higher ratings in small business. | 嗯,好像没有机构 有更高的评级 在小企业。 |
| 295 | Fascinating. | 异闻. |
| 296 | So that's an amazing fact of life today. | 这就是今天生活中一个惊人的事实。 |
| 297 | It also means that if you're not a small business, but like maybe could claim to be | 这也意味着如果你不是一个小生意, 但也许可以自称是 |
| 298 | you want to be. | 你想成为。 |
| 299 | What is a small business? | 什么是小生意? |
| 300 | What is small? | 什么是小的吗? |
| 301 | Small is in the eye of the beholder. | 小的是在观众的眼里。 |
| 302 | Right. | 对 |
| 303 | And so in certain policy circles, small just means small number of | 因此,在某些政策圈子里,小只是意味着少数 |
| 304 | owners. | 拥有者。 |
| 305 | Doesn't matter how big the business is. | 不管生意有多大 |
| 306 | You could be a billion dollar business. | 你可能是一个十亿美元的业务。 |
| 307 | Right. | 对 |
| 308 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 309 | Ten owners. | 十所有者. |
| 310 | That feels large to me. | 这对我来说是巨大的。 |
| 311 | And some of them aren't that large. | 而有些不是那么大。 |
| 312 | They're like 20, 30, 40 million dollar businesses. | 他们就像两千万,三千万,四千万的生意 |
| 313 | So, you know, they're not a public company. | 所以,你知道,他们不是一个公共公司。 |
| 314 | But that's not really like what people have in their mind when they think mom and | 但是,这不是真的 像人们有 在他们的想法,当他们认为妈妈和 |
| 315 | pop either. | 弹吧 |
| 316 | Right. | 对 |
| 317 | Because they think of somebody who's basically earning enough to support their | 因为他们想到一个人 基本上挣得足够支持他们 |
| 318 | lifestyle, but not building multi-generational Versailles type life. | 生活方式,但不构建多代凡尔赛人类型生活. |
| 319 | Everyone likes to talk about tax loopholes. | 每个人都喜欢谈论税收漏洞. |
| 320 | I made a show at Planet Money called My Favorite Tax Loophole, sort of like my | 我在"金钱星球"上做了一个叫做"我最爱的税库"的节目 有点像我的 |
| 321 | favorite murder, you know what I mean? | 你懂我的意思吗? |
| 322 | Nice. | 不错 |
| 323 | And thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 324 | But I think of pass throughs as sort of like the final boss | 但我觉得路过就像最后的老板 |
| 325 | loophole. | 漏洞报. |
| 326 | Like a lot of loopholes are actually just if you line up a few | 就像很多漏洞 其实只是如果你排好几个 |
| 327 | different behaviors that each of which we want to reward as a society, it's kind | 我们想要作为社会奖励的 不同行为,是善良的 |
| 328 | of not a loophole, just a series of behaviors. | 没有漏洞,只是一系列的行为。 |
| 329 | But this is a true loop shaped hole. | 但这是一个真正的环形洞。 |
| 330 | It's a loop shaped. | 它是一个循环形状。 |
| 331 | I mean, I think it's a pretty big one that's just kind of | 我的意思是,我认为这是一个相当大的 一个只是那种 |
| 332 | bigger over time in terms of how much activity has benefited from getting lower | 活动因减少而受益多少 |
| 333 | tax rates. | 税率。 |
| 334 | And then we get more tax cuts for these types of businesses in 2017. | 然后我们在2017年对这些类型的企业获得更多的减税. |
| 335 | But as the individual tax rates have come down at the top, going back to 2001, | 但随着个人税率在2001年的下降, |
| 336 | 3, 12, 17, like you sort of have like these cuts. | 3,12,17, 像你有点喜欢这些切。 |
| 337 | Keep going. | 继续 |
| 338 | 25. | 25号. |
| 339 | But, you know, the famous line on loopholes is when it helps you, it's a | 但是,你知道,关于漏洞的著名线 是当它帮助你,这是一个 |
| 340 | loophole. | 漏洞报. |
| 341 | When it helps me, it's tax policy. | 当它帮助我, 这是税收政策。 |
| 342 | Sort of depends on the eye of the beholder. | 多少取决于观众的眼睛。 |
| 343 | When I think of tax policy, I think we want to give tax breaks to things that | 当我想到税收政策的时候 我想我们想给一些东西 减税 |
| 344 | are societally valuable. | 具有社会价值。 |
| 345 | Obviously, small businesses, employee people generate goods and services, | 显然,小企业和雇员生产商品和服务, |
| 346 | create industries that we want. | 创造我们想要的产业。 |
| 347 | But I'm curious if you think this is doing the thing that we want it to do and | 但我好奇你是否认为这是我们想要它做的 |
| 348 | maybe if the scale is right, the weighting of it is right. | 也许如果尺度是正确的, 它的加权是正确的。 |
| 349 | Right. | 对 |
| 350 | With any tax change, there's sort of like, how much does it cost and what | 任何税制的改变,都有点像, 它的成本和什么 |
| 351 | do you get for what you're paying? | 你付了钱吗? |
| 352 | Right. | 对 |
| 353 | And so the pass-through tax cuts, you can ask, OK, when we've done this, | 所以,通过减税, 你可以问,好吧,当我们已经做到这一点, |
| 354 | how much does it change the growth of the business? | 如何能改变生意的增长? |
| 355 | Do more people enter? | 还有人进来吗? |
| 356 | Do more people grow their businesses, invest and so on? | 是否有更多的人种植他们的企业,投资等等? |
| 357 | So using like business dynamism as a... | 所以,利用像 商业活力作为一个. |
| 358 | That's sort of one argument for, like, why we should be giving these cuts to try | 这就是为什么我们应该给这些削减来尝试 |
| 359 | and get this activity, economic growth, then that generates demand for more jobs | 并获得这种活动,经济增长,从而产生对更多工作的需求 |
| 360 | that maybe, like, increases innovation, that kind of thing. | 也许,像,增加创新, 那种东西。 |
| 361 | Enriches the community, blah, blah, blah. | 丰富社区,等等,等等。 |
| 362 | Grows the pie. | 增长派. |
| 363 | We look at historical episodes where we've done these pass-through | 我们看历史剧情 我们做了这些传递 |
| 364 | tax cuts and you don't see a lot of growth from those businesses. | 减税,你看不到很多增长 从这些企业。 |
| 365 | Just the after-tax profits go up that the owners receive. | 只是税后利润上升 业主得到。 |
| 366 | One reason for this is a lot of these businesses are operating in markets. | 其中一个原因是许多这些企业在市场上经营. |
| 367 | They've grown some, but they have not so much control over the scale of the | 他们已经成长了一些, 但他们没有太多控制 规模的 |
| 368 | business. | 业务。 |
| 369 | So think of the local car dealer. | 想想当地的汽车商 |
| 370 | It's how many customers are coming in the door. | 是多少客客入门. |
| 371 | I'm not making them buy cars. | 我不会让他们买车的 |
| 372 | They have this local regional place. | 他们拥有当地的地方。 |
| 373 | Right. | 对 |
| 374 | You know, they could add a floor to their dealership and have more models or | 你知道,他们可以增加一层楼 他们的经销商 并有更多的模型或 |
| 375 | something to hand out water bottles. | 送水瓶的东西 |
| 376 | But there's some constraint based on the local market on how much they can grow | 但基于当地市场,对于它们能增长多少, 有一些限制因素 |
| 377 | relative to a larger company that can, like, sell more of its widgets overseas | 相对于一个大型公司来说,它可以把更多的部件卖给海外 |
| 378 | or something like that. | 或者类似的东西。 |
| 379 | Right. | 对 |
| 380 | And so that means that when we cut their taxes, they don't grow that much. | 因此,这意味着当我们削减他们的税收, 他们没有增长那么多。 |
| 381 | They just the owners get more of it. | 他们只是业主得到更多的。 |
| 382 | And maybe some of it goes to the workers, too, through higher wages, but not very | 也许其中一部分也通过提高工资给工人, 但并不是非常 |
| 383 | much. | 非常喜欢 |
| 384 | Right. | 对 |
| 385 | Empirically, that's just your data show that that's not really what's happening. | 经验上,这只是你的数据显示, 这不是真的发生。 |
| 386 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 387 | And so I think we're not getting that much when we do these tax cuts. | 所以,我想我们做这些减税的时候 没有得到很多。 |
| 388 | We are introducing incentives for people to do exactly what they were doing as | 我们鼓励人们做他们做的 |
| 389 | workers, as business owners instead. | 作为企业的业主 |
| 390 | So you could sort of like be a doctor in a hospital or it can be a doctor and a | 所以,你可以有点像 在医院的医生 或者它可以是一个医生和一个 |
| 391 | doctor's practice. | 医生的练习。 |
| 392 | And then most of your income comes as profits instead of wages. | 然后大部分的收入是利润而不是工资。 |
| 393 | And then you avoid some payroll tax. | 然后你免缴工资税 |
| 394 | So you're saying basically we create these incentives and people respond by | 所以,你是说,基本上我们 创建这些激励 和人们的反应 |
| 395 | cooperating and they say, OK, I'm going to change my behavior. | 他们说,好吧,我要改变我的行为。 |
| 396 | I'm going to stop being, in this case, basically labor and I'm going to become | 我要停止,在这种情况下, 基本上,劳动,我要成为 |
| 397 | capital. | 资本。 |
| 398 | Yeah, they're going to be the boss. | 是啊,他们会是老板。 |
| 399 | I'm going to be the boss. | 我要当老板 |
| 400 | But like, maybe I won't change what I'm doing very much | 但是,也许我不会改变 我所做的很多 |
| 401 | at all, like in terms of the underlying economics, which means we've just like | 说到基础经济学 也就是说我们只是喜欢 |
| 402 | spent money as by taxing them less without getting much back. | 花了很多钱,比如给他们少收税,却又不收多少 |
| 403 | Nothing else really changed. | 其它一切都没有改变 |
| 404 | They just are saving more money. | 他们只是节省更多的钱。 |
| 405 | Correct. | 没错 |
| 406 | So that's like a loophole that introduces basically only a relabeling of | 这就像一个漏洞 基本上只引入一个重贴标签 |
| 407 | activity and no change in real economic activity. | 实际经济活动没有变化。 |
| 408 | Not great trade off. | 交易并不顺利 |
| 409 | I don't like that one as much. | 我不喜欢那个 |
| 410 | No, I don't think we should like that. | 不,我觉得我们不该这样 |
| 411 | The exit strategy, the retirement plan for a lot of these folks is private equity. | 退出策略,很多人的退休计划都是私募股权. |
| 412 | Can you explain that? | 你能解释一下吗? |
| 413 | What happens? | 发生了什么事? |
| 414 | So I like to think of private equity for a lot of these founders. | 所以我喜欢为很多这些创始人考虑私募股权. |
| 415 | As the child that they never had. | 作为他们从来没有过的孩子。 |
| 416 | Because they have, even as they had children, they had children. | 因为他们有,即使他们有孩子,他们也有孩子。 |
| 417 | But it turns out none of their kids wanted to run seamless gutter businesses, seamless | 但事实证明他们的孩子没有一个想 经营无缝的沟渠生意,无缝的 |
| 418 | gutter business, or yeah, the paper storage, the 10 franchises or something like | 排水沟生意,或者说,是的, 纸张存储, 10个特许经营或类似的东西 |
| 419 | that. | 那个 |
| 420 | And if there's nobody to take over the business, so they can close it or | 如果没人能接手这个生意的话 他们就可以关门了 |
| 421 | they can sell it. | 他们可以卖掉它。 |
| 422 | And private equity has a bunch of capital looking for | 私募股本还有一堆资本 |
| 423 | opportunities, dry powder, but it really is, you know, what a lot of private equity, | 机会,干粉,但它真的是, 你知道,什么是私人股本, |
| 424 | especially this mid market private equity that's grown so much over the last few | 特别是这中间市场 私募股权增长如此之多 在过去的几 |
| 425 | decades, the capital flowing to founder, you know, created businesses, founders | 数十年,资本流向创始人, 你知道,创建企业,创始人 |
| 426 | looking to retire and has nobody to pass it on to the gray tsunami, the gray | 等待退休 没有人能把它传递给 灰色海啸,灰色 |
| 427 | tsunami, the great wealth transfer, the coming retirement to baby boomers and | 海啸、巨型财富转移 即将退休的婴儿繁荣者 |
| 428 | the silent generation who built all these businesses. | 默默的一代 建立了所有这些企业。 |
| 429 | Some cases, you know, they do have somebody to take it over. | 有些案例,你知道, 他们确实有人接管它。 |
| 430 | It's within the family and the process of training that person, getting somebody | 这是在家庭 和过程 训练那个人,获得某人 |
| 431 | interested in it is like a many decade process. | 对它感兴趣的就像一个十年的过程。 |
| 432 | But in a lot of cases, there isn't anybody in the private equity takes over and they | 但是在很多情况下 私募股权中没有任何人接管他们 |
| 433 | sell private actors willing to pay huge multiples because they see so much profit | 卖那些愿意付很多钱的私人演员 因为他们看到这么多利润 |
| 434 | in these businesses. | 这些企业。 |
| 435 | They're really successful. | 他们真的很成功。 |
| 436 | They have very loyal customers, establish supply chains, some brand that's valuable | 他们有非常忠诚的客户, 建立供应链, 一些有价值品牌 |
| 437 | and private equities like going to try and grow it further, make it more efficient, | 和私人股票喜欢去尝试 和进一步增长, 提高它的效率, |
| 438 | which means like cut costs, fewer, you know, replace sort of workers with lower | 也就是说,像削减成本, 更少,你知道, 替代一类工人 低 |
| 439 | cost workers elsewhere or robots replace in some cases. | 成本工人在别处或机器人在某些情况下替代。 |
| 440 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 441 | High quality ingredients with sort of generic ingredients. | 高品质的配料,有一类通用配料. |
| 442 | That's in shitification. | 这是狗屎。 |
| 443 | Indeed. | 没错 |
| 444 | And, you know, I think of that as sort of like an opportunity for | 而且,你知道,我觉得 这是一种机会 |
| 445 | the next set of mainstream millionaires to come in where private equity has | 下一组主流百万富翁 拥有私人股本 |
| 446 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}什么? {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}什么? | |
| 447 | I mean, just buy it back and let's make it better. | 我的意思是,只要买回来, 让我们使它更好。 |
| 448 | Buy it back or start something new. | 买回来或开始新的。 |
| 449 | I mean, I honestly, for sure. | 我的意思是,我诚实,当然。 |
| 450 | Like, you know, I'm going to when when private equity has taken some business and | 比如,你知道,我要去 当私人股权 已经采取了一些业务和 |
| 451 | sort of run it into the ground in terms of the quality, maybe they found a bigger | 从质量上说,也许他们找到了更大的 |
| 452 | market or improve the margins and it still works out for their investors. | 市场或提高利润率,对投资者仍然有效。 |
| 453 | But as a consumer, it means you've got to be looking around, I think. | 但作为一个消费者, 这意味着你必须看看周围,我想。 |
| 454 | And as an entrepreneur, it means that could be the next set of opportunities. | 作为一个企业家,这意味着 这可能是下一套机会。 |
| 455 | This is so inspiring. | 这太鼓舞人心了 |
| 456 | So you look around at the inshittified marketplace, which has | 所以,你看看周围的 垃圾市场,它已经 |
| 457 | resulted from all of these mainstream millionaires selling their businesses to | 这些主流百万富翁将生意卖给 |
| 458 | private equity, who then lower the quality of the inputs to make their margins | 私募股本,然后降低投入的质量以获得利润 |
| 459 | better. | 好多了,你还好吧? |
| 460 | And you as the consumer perceive this and you're like, you know what? | 而你作为消费者 看到了这一点,你喜欢,你知道吗? |
| 461 | I'm going to make a better product. | 我会做一个更好的产品。 |
| 462 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 463 | I want to know what the effect is of all of these mainstream millionaires | 我想知道所有这些主流百万富翁的影响是什么 |
| 464 | that we can now see. | 我们现在可以看到。 |
| 465 | Right. | 对 |
| 466 | You have turned the lights on. | 你已经打开了灯。 |
| 467 | We can see that there are all these millionaires around us. | 我们可以看到,我们周围都是这些百万富翁。 |
| 468 | What has it done to our society that this kind of class or that this cohort has | 这种阶级或这个群体对我们的社会做了什么? |
| 469 | grown so much? | 长大了这么多? |
| 470 | And how has that changed the world that we live in? | 这如何改变了我们生活的世界? |
| 471 | So there's a good and a bad, I think, part of this story. | 因此,有一个好的和不好的,我想,这个故事的一部分。 |
| 472 | So if you look at rising income inequality, more than half of the rise of the top | 因此,如果你看 不断上升的收入不平等, 一半以上的上升顶端 |
| 473 | one percent income share. | 收入份额为1%。 |
| 474 | So the share of total income going to folks, the top one percent income | 因此,在总收入中的份额流向人们, 收入最高的1% |
| 475 | distribution comes from pass through business income. | 分配来自商业收入。 |
| 476 | So this is income that is coming from these mid-market businesses that mainstream | 因此,这是收入 从这些中 市场企业的主流 |
| 477 | millionaires own that aren't getting taxed at the corporate level, that aren't | 百万富翁拥有的,没有在公司一级征税,没有 |
| 478 | getting taxed at the corporate level. | 在公司一级征税。 |
| 479 | The good part, I think, is a lot of these people have come up through a vision of | 我认为,好的一面是, 很多人都从一个 |
| 480 | the American dream that I think we often don't see illustrated with real life | 美国梦,我想我们经常不看到 与真实生活 |
| 481 | stories that we think, oh, that's also potentially achievable, attainable. | 故事,我们认为,哦, 这也是有可能实现的,可以实现的。 |
| 482 | Right. | 对 |
| 483 | Elon's story is not inspiring. | 伊隆的故事并不令人振奋. |
| 484 | No. | 没有 |
| 485 | And I don't think a lot of people aspire to the lifestyle or the | 我不认为很多人 渴望的生活方式或 |
| 486 | personality or whatever. | 个性或什么的。 |
| 487 | There's nothing accessible there. | 那里没有东西可以进入. |
| 488 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 489 | But a lot of these characters, sort of the way that they got up there and, | 但很多这样的角色, 排序的方式 他们在那里, |
| 490 | you know, the aspects of those stories seem kind of repeatable, even if the | 你知道,这些故事的方面 似乎是一种可以重复的, 即使 |
| 491 | specific circumstances, the specific opportunities are no longer available. | 具体情况,具体机会不再存在. |
| 492 | And so I think that's kind of inspiring at a time when we're like searching for | 所以,我认为这有点鼓舞人心 当我们喜欢寻找 |
| 493 | things to aspire to or to be like hopeful about, you know, for our kids or | 渴望或像希望,你知道, 对于我们的孩子或 |
| 494 | whatever. | 随便吧 |
| 495 | This is such a University of Chicago hope. | 这是芝加哥大学的希望 |
| 496 | Yes. | 对 |
| 497 | I mean, look, there's room for hope and optimism there. | 我的意思是,你看,那里有希望和乐观的余地。 |
| 498 | And it's sort of like interesting to do that in a moment where I think optimism | 在我觉得乐观的瞬间 |
| 499 | is like in scarce supply. | 就像在稀缺的供应。 |
| 500 | Fair. | 不错 |
| 501 | Then the like the worst part of the story is like looking at how, | 那么,像最糟糕的部分 故事是这样, |
| 502 | especially the more established, everywhere millionaires have erected | 特别是更古老的 百万富翁在任何地方建立 |
| 503 | barriers to entry in a lot of industries that cause them to get richer at the | 许多行业的进入障碍使他们在经济、社会、文化权利方面更加富有。 |
| 504 | expense of consumers, new entrants and workers through things like non-competes | 消费者、新进入者和工人通过无行为能力者等费用 |
| 505 | applied to low skilled workers, for example. | 例如,适用于低技能工人。 |
| 506 | A janitor who can't go get a new job at a competitor because he had to sign an | 一个看门人不能去竞争者那里找新工作 因为他必须签个字 |
| 507 | agreement. | 协议。 |
| 508 | Or a sandwich artist who's prevented from like making sandwiches across the | 或者一个三明治艺人 他不能做三明治 |
| 509 | street at a competing restaurant. | 街上一个竞争的餐厅。 |
| 510 | The IP of sandwich making is not so revelatory as far as I know. | 据我所知,三明治制作的IP不是那么令人振奋 |
| 511 | So that's kind of a problem that I think we really need to understand. | 所以,这是一个问题 我认为我们真的需要理解。 |
| 512 | And seeing how they do that, seeing also how they've contributed to some of our | 看看他们是如何做到的, 也看到他们是如何为一些我们 |
| 513 | fiscal problems through advocating for and codifying tax cuts that have been | 通过倡导和编纂减税措施的财政问题 |
| 514 | very expensive. | 非常昂贵。 |
| 515 | That's a problem because our fiscal situation is much worse than | 那是个问题,因为我们的财政状况比 |
| 516 | it was 25 years ago. | 这是25年前。 |
| 517 | Yeah, more bad and getting worse. | 是啊,更糟糕和越来越糟糕。 |
| 518 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 519 | And there's like very little momentum from either side to go after the | 双方似乎都没有什么动力去追杀 |
| 520 | everywhere millionaires tax cuts that they've received. | 到处都有百万富翁减税 |
| 521 | They are them. | 他们是他们。 |
| 522 | Because they're represented well on both sides of the aisle, which I think is a | 因为他们在过道的两边都有很好的代表, 我认为这是一个 |
| 523 | situation that is not that well understood. | 情况没有那么清楚 |
| 524 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 525 | Did you know that before going into this? | 你之前知道吗? |
| 526 | Not really. | 没有 |
| 527 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 528 | I hadn't really thought about the backgrounds of elected officials. | 我没有真正考虑过当选官员的背景. |
| 529 | Well, those are kind of cute when they're a business owner. | 嗯,这些是有点可爱 当他们是一个企业老板。 |
| 530 | You're like, oh, look at this business person going into government. | 你就像,哦,看看这个商人 进入政府。 |
| 531 | Like, that's nice. | 喜欢,这是很好的。 |
| 532 | Yeah, for sure. | 是的,当然。 |
| 533 | And also, look, there's like executive function. | 还有,你看,有像执行职能。 |
| 534 | They like have direct experience with regulations and doing things in the market | 他们喜欢在市场里有直接的监管经验 |
| 535 | that might actually make them better informed about public policies. | 这实际上可能使他们更好地了解公共政策。 |
| 536 | They know how the world works. | 他们知道这个世界是如何运作的。 |
| 537 | For sure. | 当然 |
| 538 | But if they bring sort of their vested interests to policymaking and | 但是,如果他们给决策带来 某种既得利益 |
| 539 | the expense of voters and everybody else, that seems like a real problem. | 选民和其他所有人的费用, 这似乎是一个真正的问题。 |
| 540 | You have a great sort of roundup of how everywhere millionaires use their power | 你对百万富翁 如何使用他们的力量 有着很强的把握 |
| 541 | to create laws that solidify their market position. | 制定巩固其市场地位的法律。 |
| 542 | The beer distributor, who state laws prevent breweries from selling directly to | 州法律禁止酿酒厂直接向 |
| 543 | retailers. | 零售商。 |
| 544 | Right. | 对 |
| 545 | You have to go through the pipe of the distribution network in | 你必须通过销售网络的管道 |
| 546 | most of these states to sell beer. | 这些州大多出售啤酒。 |
| 547 | To sell beer. | 卖啤酒。 |
| 548 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 549 | So like a lot of the microbreweries that entered face challenges selling to | 所以像很多进入的微型酿酒厂 面临挑战出售给 |
| 550 | broader markets because of the beer distributors. | 更广阔的市场 因为啤酒经销商。 |
| 551 | The Chevy dealer that has state franchise laws that make it impossible for GM to | 雪佛兰经销商,拥有州特许经营法,使得全球机制无法 |
| 552 | close the dealership. | 关闭经销商。 |
| 553 | So the dealer doesn't perform very well, doesn't sell that many cars. | 所以庄家表现不好,不卖那么多车. |
| 554 | You can't have a new Chevy dealer enter in that turf. | 你不能让新的雪佛兰毒贩进入那个地盘 |
| 555 | That dealer is protected from the manufacturer suspending the dealership. | 该经销商受到保护,不受制造商中止经销权的限制。 |
| 556 | And meanwhile, the dealers, going back to loss leaders, they don't make that much | 与此同时,交易商们 回到失去的领袖们 他们赚的不多 |
| 557 | money selling the cars. | 卖车的钱 |
| 558 | They make some. | 他们做了一些。 |
| 559 | But all the other services that they sell, and because they have | 但是他们出售的所有其他服务 因为他们有 |
| 560 | this like first position as a dealership, you know, repairs, warranty stuff, | 这就像第一位置的经销商, 你知道,修理,保修的东西, |
| 561 | insurance, financing, and so on. | 保险、融资等等。 |
| 562 | That's where a lot of the money comes from. | 即多财之所生. |
| 563 | So it's like having that established captive market position is really valuable | 所以,这就像有既定的 固定的市场地位 是真正有价值的 |
| 564 | to them. | 给他们。 |
| 565 | Having these businesses be so entrenched and having the everywhere millionaires | 让这些企业如此扎根 拥有各地的百万富翁 |
| 566 | lobbying to retain that dominance. | 游说保持这种支配地位。 |
| 567 | That's bad for dynamism, meaning like if I'm a new entrant to the market potentially, | 这不利于活力, 意思是如果我是一个新的进入市场的潜力, |
| 568 | I have a tough go of it. | 我有一个艰难的尝试。 |
| 569 | I'm fighting an uphill battle. | 我在上山战斗 |
| 570 | I can't even fight it all. | 我甚至无法抵抗这一切。 |
| 571 | Is that right? | 是吗? |
| 572 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 573 | And then there's also as a consumer, as a customer, it's bad for me because they | 还有作为消费者,作为顾客, 这对我不好,因为他们 |
| 574 | can jack the prices up because that competitor couldn't enter. | 因为竞争者无法进入,所以可以提高价格。 |
| 575 | For sure. | 当然 |
| 576 | One of the things that you highlight is that these mainstream millionaires are | 你强调的一件事是 这些主流百万富翁 |
| 577 | capturing almost all of the gains from productivity. | 获得生产力带来的几乎所有收益。 |
| 578 | That feels unfair. | 这感觉不公平。 |
| 579 | It's pretty interesting for workers. | 这对工人来说很有趣 |
| 580 | That's their productivity. | 这就是他们的生产力。 |
| 581 | Indeed. | 没错 |
| 582 | Well, it's a mix. | 嗯,这是一个混合。 |
| 583 | We. | 我们。 |
| 584 | But, yeah, I mean, so what do we do? | 但是,是的,我的意思是,我们该怎么办? |
| 585 | Sort of say, OK, how big is the pie? | 可以说 派有多大? |
| 586 | How much has it grown? | 长了多少? |
| 587 | And who's getting the share? | 而谁得分. |
| 588 | What's your slices? | 你的切片是怎样的? |
| 589 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 590 | Of pie. | 馅饼。 |
| 591 | Delicious. | 美味极了 不错 |
| 592 | And so the pie has grown from like, say, 2000. | 因此,馅饼从2000年开始增长。 |
| 593 | We tried to look at this with our like big admin data such that, say, | 我们试图用我们的大数据来看待这个,比如, |
| 594 | workers, the productivity per worker, how much pie per worker. | 工人,每个工人的生产力,每个工人多少馅饼。 |
| 595 | So it's thirty four thousand per worker at the beginning of like the data that we | 因此,这是三万四千个工人 在开始像我们的数据 |
| 596 | were looking at in 2000 was thirty four thousand per worker had gone up to fifty | 2000年,每名工人有3万4千人 |
| 597 | two thousand per worker. | 每个工人两千元。 |
| 598 | So that eighteen thousand dollar gain in productivity, the owners are getting | 这样一万八千美金的生产力收益, 业主们就得到了 |
| 599 | fifteen thousand and the workers are getting three thousand. | 一万五千 工人要赚三千 |
| 600 | Doesn't that seem fair to you? | 你觉得这不公平吗? |
| 601 | That seems like a lot going to the top, going to the owners. | 这似乎很多去顶端, 去业主。 |
| 602 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 603 | What's going on there? | 这是怎么回事? |
| 604 | Why is that? | 为什么? |
| 605 | It feels having been a worker, you know, I think that this feels | 我觉得当工人的感觉 |
| 606 | resonant because we are constantly being asked to do more with less, more with | 反响很大,因为人们不断要求我们用更少的,更多的 |
| 607 | less. | 少一点 |
| 608 | And I don't think that's just journalism. | 我觉得这不仅仅是新闻 |
| 609 | I think that's everywhere. | 我觉得到处都是 |
| 610 | And so that's productivity gains. | 这就是生产率的提高。 |
| 611 | But we're not I'm not I'm not feeling like I'm getting 50, 60 percent of the | 但是,我们不是,我没有 我感觉我得到了50,60% |
| 612 | doing more that I've been doing as a worker. | 做更多的我一直在做一个工人。 |
| 613 | Totally. | 当然 |
| 614 | I think one element of the story is like there's been a lot more | 我认为故事的一个要素 是像有 更多的 |
| 615 | competition for workers than for owners. | 竞争工人而不是所有者。 |
| 616 | You think about workers in first it was like in unionized states and right to | 你首先想到的是工人 就像在工会化的州里 |
| 617 | work states. | 工作状态。 |
| 618 | So it's like workers in right to work states being able to provide | 所以,这就像工人的权利工作 国家能够提供 |
| 619 | work that the unionized workers were, you know, originally being paid more to do. | 工会工人的工作,你知道的, 最初得到更多的工资做。 |
| 620 | Then it's like, OK, offshore workers. | 那就像 离岸工人一样 |
| 621 | So like the labor supply of folks offshore, we think of that as being a large | 所以,像海外的劳动力供应, 我们认为这是一个巨大的 |
| 622 | corporate situation where like big companies are moving their production | 公司状况,像大公司 移动他们的生产 |
| 623 | offshore. | 离岸. |
| 624 | But this is also true for every millionaires in those businesses. | 但是,对于这些企业的每一个百万富翁来说也是如此。 |
| 625 | They're able to do a lot of the work in the supply chain that's not necessarily | 他们能做很多 供应链中不一定的工作 |
| 626 | here. | 在这里。 |
| 627 | So some of the growth is coming from moving the supply chain offshore. | 因此,有些增长来自于供应链向海外移动。 |
| 628 | Some of it's like coming from moving the supply chain outside the boundaries of | 有些就像把供应链移到 |
| 629 | the firm. | 事务所。 |
| 630 | Contractors, spec work, this kind of stuff. | 承包商,特务工作,这种东西。 |
| 631 | Those same factors that are happening at like mega companies also happening to | 与巨型公司一样发生的同样情况 |
| 632 | these smaller companies. | 这些小公司。 |
| 633 | There's also just way less scrutiny on these on these | 也只是少了这些检查 |
| 634 | smaller corporations. | 小型公司。 |
| 635 | The mantle of small business is very powerful. | 小企业的地幔非常强大。 |
| 636 | We can't see them. | 我们看不到他们。 |
| 637 | We don't look at them. | 我们不看他们。 |
| 638 | That's crazy. | 这太疯狂了 |
| 639 | It's tough. | 难曰. |
| 640 | They don't they don't really like make your Instagram reels blow it. | 他们不喜欢让你的Instagram卷轴 吹它。 |
| 641 | They don't like really attract the attention in the same way. | 他们不喜欢以同样的方式吸引注意力。 |
| 642 | Right. | 对 |
| 643 | I just don't think like Elon just really just gets gets everybody going. | 我只是不认为像伊隆 只是真正得到 让每个人都去。 |
| 644 | Well, and you talk a lot about this. | 嗯,你谈论了很多关于这一点。 |
| 645 | I think it's true. | 我认为这是真的。 |
| 646 | We focus so much of our rhetorical attention, Instagram | 我们把太多的注意力集中在言辞上,Instagram |
| 647 | attention, advocacy on people like Elon Musk and his cohort, because they're the | 对伊隆·穆斯克和他的帮派 这样的人的关心 因为他们是 |
| 648 | old like there's I have a neighbor who has a bumper sticker that says tax the | 就像我有个邻居 有保险杠贴纸 上面写着 |
| 649 | ultra rich. | 超富贵的 |
| 650 | And you're kind of like, what about the medium rich? | 你有点像,中富人呢? |
| 651 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 652 | What about the really, really still rich? | 那真正,真的,真的还是富有呢? |
| 653 | Yeah, I'm like tax them also. | 是啊,我也一样征税他们。 |
| 654 | That's available to us. | 这是我们可用的。 |
| 655 | Yeah, it's not an either or. | 是啊,它不是一个或者。 |
| 656 | Because because focusing just on Elon and his cohort sort of obscures allows this | 因为只专注于伊隆和他的组别 那种模糊的允许 |
| 657 | other class of people to just be hidden and going about their business. | 其他阶层的人只是被隐藏 和去他们的生意。 |
| 658 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 659 | Your facial expression right now. | 你的面部表情现在。 |
| 660 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 661 | Yeah, it's like it's kind of nuts. | 是啊,这就像一种坚果。 |
| 662 | I mean, like we're saying, like these people are going around on yachts a lot of | 我的意思是,就像我们在说, 像这些人在游艇上到处游荡 |
| 663 | cases and we have a 7 percent structural deficit in full employment. | 我们的结构性赤字 7%的充分就业。 |
| 664 | Like it's kind of like half of the debt is from tax cuts over the last 25 years. | 像是过去25年来 一半的债务来自减税 |
| 665 | And it's not on Elon. | 亦不着于伊隆. |
| 666 | It's not on Elon. | 不在伊龙身上. |
| 667 | It's not all on Elon. | 并非全靠伊隆来做. |
| 668 | No, I mean, some of it. | 不,我是说,有些。 |
| 669 | Eric, thank you so much. | 埃里克,非常感谢。 |
| 670 | This is really fun. | 这真的很有趣。 |
| 671 | Before we go, I have one last question for you. | 出发前,我还有最后一个问题要问你 |
| 672 | What is something that you're doing differently? | 什么是你正在做的不同吗? |
| 673 | A big change that you made in your life, some big exciting new hobby that you have. | 你一生中发生的巨大变化 一些令人兴奋的新爱好 |
| 674 | We cook a lot. | 我们经常做饭 |
| 675 | You cook. | 你做饭 |
| 676 | I love to cook. | 我喜欢做饭。 |
| 677 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 678 | It's a lot of fun. | 诸趣无量. |
| 679 | Sort of a family bonding activity. | 某种家庭联系活动。 |
| 680 | So we like each have our, you know, little stations in the kitchen with the baby. | 所以,我们喜欢每个人都有 我们,你知道,小站 在厨房与婴儿。 |
| 681 | The baby sort of sitting. | 婴儿之类的坐着。 |
| 682 | Sometimes you do it after baby goes to sleep. | 有时候,你做 婴儿睡觉后。 |
| 683 | And so it's like it's a husband wife kind of thing. | 所以这就像一个丈夫的妻子之类的事情。 |
| 684 | And and that's just like a really fun activity. | 这就像一个真正有趣的活动。 |
| 685 | So we have a bunch of cookbooks. | 我们有一堆烹饪手册 |
| 686 | We kind of like we do something called Cook, like Recipe Lottery or Recipe Roulette. | 我们喜欢做一些叫"厨师"的事,比如"食谱彩票"或"食谱鲁莱特". |
| 687 | Recipe Roulette. | 道具罗华. |
| 688 | Nice. | 不错 |
| 689 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 690 | So you just randomly random number, pick a thing from a book. | 所以你只是随机的随机数字, 从一本书中挑一个东西。 |
| 691 | How do you have the ingredients on hand? | 你怎么有 原料在手吗? |
| 692 | Well, then we go shop or do in the morning, go shop and like. | 好吧,然后我们去购物或做 在早晨,去购物和喜欢。 |
| 693 | So, OK, what are you making? | 那么,好吧,你在做什麽? |
| 694 | What's the best thing that you've made recently? | 你最近做的最好的东西是什么? |
| 695 | The most recent thing that made that was like surprisingly easy and also amazing | 最近的事情,使它像 令人惊讶的简单,也惊人 |
| 696 | was like just like a classic Thai curry in like a giant wok. | 就像一个经典的泰国咖哩 像一个巨大的wok。 |
| 697 | Easy. | 慢点 |
| 698 | It was surprisingly easy. | 这是令人惊讶的简单。 |
| 699 | But the key was getting really good coconut milk, really good curry paste from H Mart. | 但关键是得到 非常好的椰子牛奶, 非常好的咖喱糊 从H Mart。 |
| 700 | And that curry was awesome. | 咖喱也不错 |
| 701 | So that becomes like a weeknight meal because it's like so easy. | 所以这就像一个周夜的晚餐 因为它是如此容易。 |
| 702 | You can make a ton of it. | 你可以做一个吨。 |
| 703 | That was amazing. | 这是惊人的。 |
| 704 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 705 | I'll see you at Bucky's. | 巴基家见. |
| 706 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 707 | It was really fun. | 这真的很好玩。 |
| 708 | Really fun. | 真的很好玩,你觉得呢? |
| 709 | This episode was story edited by Meg Kramer and produced by Mitchell Johnson. | 本集的故事由梅格·克拉默(英语:Meg Kramer)编辑,米切尔·约翰逊(英语:Mitchell Johnson)制作. |
| 710 | Video editing by Shira Golden. | 视频编辑:希拉·金. |
| 711 | Fact checking by Will Tablin. | 威尔·塔布林查过事实 |
| 712 | Catherine Sullivan is our executive producer. | 凯瑟琳·沙利文是我们的执行制片人 |
| 713 | Brian Leesring是我们的摄影导演 | |
| 714 | Caitlin Owens is our creative director. | 凯特琳 欧文斯是我们的创意总监 |
| 715 | 我们的社交媒体经理是Maria Lemania. | |
| 716 | Scott Lane at Overcoast Music and Sound 我们的主题音乐。 | |
| 717 | If you enjoyed this episode, please like this video and subscribe to our channel. | 如果你喜欢这集,请喜欢这段视频 订阅我们的频道。 |
| 718 | It helps support the show and allows other curious people to find us, too. | 它有助于支持节目 让其他好奇的人也能找到我们 |
| 719 | I'm Mary Childs. | 我是玛丽·柴尔斯 |
| 720 | See you next week. | 下周见 |
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