【双语音+文稿】最新！埃隆·马斯克在 G20 峰会上展示了他
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| P1 | 【双语音+文稿】最新！埃隆·马斯克在 G20 峰会上展示了他 | 13:20 |
P1 · 【双语音+文稿】最新！埃隆·马斯克在 G20 峰会上展示了他的 AI 愿景：未来比你想象的要近得多。 p01 英文版 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | First, our first speaker is Elon Musk. | 首先,我们的第一位发言者是埃隆·穆斯克。 |
| 0:04 | As the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon | 作为特斯拉和SpaceX的首席执行官 埃隆 |
| 0:06 | has shown that conquering challenges of physics | 已经证明 征服物理学的挑战 |
| 0:09 | engineering can be easier than cutting through red tape. | 工程学可能比通过繁文缛节更容易. |
| 0:12 | And I think his dedication to doing both, however, | 我认为他致力于 既做,但, |
| 0:15 | continues to inspire people around the world. | 继续激励着世界各地的人们。 |
| 0:18 | So thank you, Elon, for joining us. | 谢谢你 伊隆 加入我们 |
| 0:20 | We were just wrapping up our introductory session | 我们刚结束开场白 |
| 0:22 | where we made clear that under this presidency, | 其中我们明确表示,在主席任内, |
| 0:26 | we believe that economic growth is | 我们认为,经济增长是 |
展开字幕全文（259 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | First, our first speaker is Elon Musk. | 首先,我们的第一位发言者是埃隆·穆斯克。 |
| 2 | As the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon | 作为特斯拉和SpaceX的首席执行官 埃隆 |
| 3 | has shown that conquering challenges of physics | 已经证明 征服物理学的挑战 |
| 4 | engineering can be easier than cutting through red tape. | 工程学可能比通过繁文缛节更容易. |
| 5 | And I think his dedication to doing both, however, | 我认为他致力于 既做,但, |
| 6 | continues to inspire people around the world. | 继续激励着世界各地的人们。 |
| 7 | So thank you, Elon, for joining us. | 谢谢你 伊隆 加入我们 |
| 8 | We were just wrapping up our introductory session | 我们刚结束开场白 |
| 9 | where we made clear that under this presidency, | 其中我们明确表示,在主席任内, |
| 10 | we believe that economic growth is | 我们认为,经济增长是 |
| 11 | one of the most important drivers for all of us. | 是我们所有人最重要的车手之一 |
| 12 | And we believe that technology is a big piece of that. | 我们相信技术是其中的一大部分。 |
| 13 | So you've been on the front lines of this for quite a while. | 所以,你一直站在这个前沿 相当长一段时间。 |
| 14 | And I think one of the key questions, I think, | 我认为一个关键问题是, |
| 15 | for the group and something that we wanted to talk to you | 我们想和你们谈谈 |
| 16 | about was, as you have driven innovation | 就像你推动创新一样 |
| 17 | across multiple countries around the world, | 跨越世界各地多个国家, |
| 18 | what, in your opinion, separates countries | 在你看来,什么是分离的国家 |
| 19 | where innovators can successfully turn breakthroughs | 创新者可以成功实现突破 |
| 20 | into deployed technologies from those where progress actually | 技术的应用 |
| 21 | stalls? | 摊子? |
| 22 | Because I think there's a lot of lessons learned about what | 因为我认为有很多教训 关于什么 |
| 23 | people, governments, should be doing | 人民,政府,应该这样做 |
| 24 | and what maybe they shouldn't be. | 以及他们不该做的 |
| 25 | Well, yeah, I think a lot of people have talked about this. | 嗯,是的,我想很多人 已经谈到这一点。 |
| 26 | And I think some of it, frankly, is pretty straightforward, | 老实说,我觉得有些事情很直接 |
| 27 | is that you have to have an environment that's relatively | 你必须有一个环境 相对的, |
| 28 | free of regulation, meaning that new things must | 没有监管,意味着新事物必须 |
| 29 | be default legal as opposed to default illegal. | 默认合法,而非违约非法。 |
| 30 | So in the EU, for example, we find | 例如,在欧盟,我们发现 |
| 31 | that the regulation level is extraordinarily high | 监管水平极高 |
| 32 | and things are generally default illegal. | 并且一般情况下 默认为非法。 |
| 33 | And this inhibits progress of new technologies. | 这阻碍了新技术的进步。 |
| 34 | It slows it down. | 令其缓缓. |
| 35 | It doesn't ultimately stop it, but it slows it down | 它不会最终阻止它,但它会慢下来 |
| 36 | quite considerably. | 相当大。 |
| 37 | Of course, you need to have venture capitalists | 当然,你需要有风险投资家 |
| 38 | and an environment that is supportive of new companies. | 以及支持新公司的环境。 |
| 39 | You can think of new companies like little, | 你可以想到新的公司 像小, |
| 40 | they're like small saplings in a forest. | 它们就像森林里的小树苗 |
| 41 | So what most countries tend to do | 所以大多数国家都这么认为 |
| 42 | is they tend to provide too much support | 他们往往会提供太多的支持 |
| 43 | to the large existing trees in the forest | 森林中的大树 |
| 44 | and not enough to the small saplings. | 不足以养小苗 |
| 45 | But the large trees don't need their support. | 但大树并不需要他们的支持. |
| 46 | It's the small saplings that do, the startups. | 是小苗所为,始发者也. |
| 47 | And so the system should be generally biased | 所以这个制度应该有偏见 |
| 48 | towards supporting the small trees as opposed | 相反,支持小树 |
| 49 | to the large ones. | 对大块头。 |
| 50 | But that is rarely the case because the large companies | 但这种情况很少发生,因为大公司 |
| 51 | have access to the leadership of the countries | 能够接触各国的领导 |
| 52 | and the small startups do not. | 小型创业者则不然。 |
| 53 | So you really need to foster the growth of young companies | 所以,你真的需要促进年轻公司的发展 |
| 54 | and take active steps in that regard. | 并在此方面采取积极步骤。 |
| 55 | And like I said, make things default legal, | 正如我说的, 使事情默认合法, |
| 56 | not default illegal. | 非默认非法。 |
| 57 | One question that a lot of the countries here face | 这里许多国家面临的一个问题 |
| 58 | is a question around adoption. | 这是一个关于收养的问题。 |
| 59 | I think there's a general recognition | 我认为这是一个普遍的认识 |
| 60 | that adopting emerging technologies | 采用新兴技术 |
| 61 | can be very beneficial to economic growth, | 能够非常有利于经济增长, |
| 62 | no matter what sort of shape size of any country is. | 不论任何国家的大小大小。 |
| 63 | How do you think about adoption? | 你觉得领养怎么样? |
| 64 | What should countries be doing to encourage adoption? | 各国应如何鼓励收养? |
| 65 | Does it go back to the same sort of regulatory structures? | 它会回到同样的管理结构吗? |
| 66 | Or how do you think about adoption | 或者你对收养的想法如何 |
| 67 | as a key driver for growth? | 作为增长的关键驱动力? |
| 68 | Yeah, I think you want to have a lean forward, | 是啊,我想你想有一个倾斜向前, |
| 69 | try new technologies approach to new technologies. | 尝试新技术处理新技术。 |
| 70 | Otherwise, as opposed to be somewhat stuck in the past. | 否则,而不是被一些困在过去。 |
| 71 | Naturally, new technologies need some encouragement | 自然,新技术需要一些鼓励 |
| 72 | and I think should be embraced. | 我认为应该被接受。 |
| 73 | We are going to see and are seeing in fact, | 我们会看到,事实上, |
| 74 | significant productivity gains from artificial intelligence | 人工智能的显著生产力提高 |
| 75 | and we'll see very dramatic gains | 我们将会看到巨大的收获 |
| 76 | in productivity from robotics. | 机器人的生产力 |
| 77 | Things like the Tesla self-driving car | 特斯拉自驾车之类的东西 |
| 78 | is going to be a tremendous boon, | 将是一个巨大的好处, |
| 79 | or is a tremendous boon already to users. | 或已经给用户带来巨大的好处。 |
| 80 | And I think humanoid robotics | 我认为人造机器人 |
| 81 | will be just an incredible change. | 这将是一个不可思议的变化。 |
| 82 | Just to give you some sense of scale here, | 只是给你一些规模感, |
| 83 | I think AI will probably increase the global economy | 我认为AI可能会增加全球经济 |
| 84 | by 20 to 30%, that's my rough estimate, | 百分之二十到三,这是我的粗略估计 |
| 85 | meaning on the order of 20 to 30 trillion dollars per year. | 意思是每年20到30万亿美元 |
| 86 | And AI will be able to do anything digital, | 而AI能够做任何数字化, |
| 87 | anything that does not require shaping of atoms by hand, | 任何不需要手工塑造原子的东西, |
| 88 | probably by the end of next year. | 可能到明年年底 |
| 89 | So, as I'm sure people know, | 所以,我敢肯定,人们知道, |
| 90 | AI is already incredibly good at software. | AI已经非常擅长软件。 |
| 91 | And it's getting to the point | 越来越重要 |
| 92 | where AI won't just be good at software, | 其中AI不会只是擅长于软件, |
| 93 | it'll be what I call stockfish level good. | 这将是我所说的鱼的水平好。 |
| 94 | So, stockfish is a chess program | 鱼鱼是国际象棋计划 |
| 95 | that can beat the world's best chess players very easily. | 这很容易打败世界最好的棋手 |
| 96 | In fact, at this point, you could run stockfish on your phone | 事实上,此时此刻,你可以在手机上运行鱼群 |
| 97 | and beat Magnus Carlsen at chess. | 并在国际象棋比赛中战胜了马格努斯·卡尔森. |
| 98 | So, at some point next year, is my prediction, | 所以,在明年的某个时候, 我的预测, |
| 99 | software will be so good, AI software will be so good, | 软件会很棒 AI软件会很棒 |
| 100 | that it will be stockfish level good, | 以便鱼群达到良好的水平, |
| 101 | meaning that it is impossible for a human to compete | 意味着人类不可能竞争 |
| 102 | in writing software with AI. | 与AI的写作软件。 |
| 103 | But AI will just crush all humans at software. | 但AI只会在软件上粉碎所有人类. |
| 104 | And I think it will be extremely good, | 我认为这将是极好的, |
| 105 | possibly stockfish level, | 可能是鱼群水平, |
| 106 | but certainly extremely good at all forms of engineering | 但肯定在各种工程方面都非常优秀 |
| 107 | and anything digital, literally in 12 to 18 months. | 以及任何数字化的,实际上在12到18个月。 |
| 108 | One of the stuff... | 其中一件东西... |
| 109 | Actually, let me add just one more thing to that, | 实际上,让我再补充一件事 |
| 110 | my apologies. | 对不起 |
| 111 | So, 20, 30% increase of total global economy. | 因此,全球总经济增长了20,30%。 |
| 112 | So, this is quite a lot of prosperity | 所以,这是相当多的繁荣 |
| 113 | we're talking about here, just from digital AI, | 我们在这里谈论,只是从数字AI, |
| 114 | but from robotics, from humanoid, | 从机器人,从人形, |
| 115 | basically think of it like a general purpose robot AI. | 基本上把它当成一个通用机器人AI. |
| 116 | I think we'll see many multiples of the global economy, | 我认为我们会看到 全球经济的许多倍数, |
| 117 | meaning like you can increase the economy | 意思是你可以增加经济 |
| 118 | by a factor of 10 or more. | 乘以 10 或 10 个以上。 |
| 119 | These are mind boggling numbers. | 这些是心智错乱的数字。 |
| 120 | Yeah, I was just about to say that. | 是啊,我正要说。 |
| 121 | I mean, one of the stats we gave to the group here | 我的意思是,一个数据 我们给了这里的小组 |
| 122 | was that in the four years since sort of chat GBT | 是在四年时间里 |
| 123 | was launched, I think there's over a billion people | 发起,我想有超过十亿人 |
| 124 | around the world already using AI. | 全世界已经使用AI。 |
| 125 | There's been very quick uptake around the country, | 全国各地的摄入速度非常快 |
| 126 | around the world on that. | 全世界都在关注这个 |
| 127 | I guess the question to you is, | 我想问题是, |
| 128 | a lot of people think about sort of the next chapter | 很多人会考虑下一章 |
| 129 | being in this sort of applied or sort of physical AI. | 在这种应用或某种物理AI。 |
| 130 | Where do you see sort of robotics trending? | 你从哪里看到机器人的潮流? |
| 131 | How quickly is it gonna be implemented? | 多久才能执行? |
| 132 | I think I remember in the first Trump administration, | 我记得在第一任特朗普政府, |
| 133 | we were talking about sort of automated factories | 我们当时在谈论自动化工厂 |
| 134 | and now we're a year later, 10 years later. | 现在我们是一年后,十年后。 |
| 135 | So, how quickly do you think these changes are happening | 所以,你认为这些变化是如何迅速发生的 |
| 136 | in the sort of physical AI world? | 在物理的AI世界吗? |
| 137 | Yeah, so anything physical always takes longer | 是啊,所以任何物理总是需要更长的时间 |
| 138 | than anything which is digital. | 比任何数字化的东西。 |
| 139 | Digital, when you solve something digitally, | 数字化,当你用数字方式解决一些事情时, |
| 140 | it's the software that you can easily copy across | 这是你很容易复制的软件 |
| 141 | to other computers. | 其他电脑。 |
| 142 | When it's physical, you've got to build up | 当它的身体,你必须积聚 |
| 143 | an entire massive supply chain. | 一个巨大的供应链。 |
| 144 | You've got to move a lot of atoms. | 得动许多原子. |
| 145 | And supply chains are very much global at this point. | 供应链在目前非常全球化。 |
| 146 | So, that's why it takes longer. | 所以,这就是为什么它需要更长的时间。 |
| 147 | Nonetheless, when you think of humanoid robotics, | 不过,当你想到人造机器人时, |
| 148 | the way you think about it, | 你这样想 |
| 149 | I think the right framework is consider that | 我认为正确的框架是, |
| 150 | the usefulness of a humanoid robot, | 人类机器人的用处, |
| 151 | a general purpose robot, is going to be | 一个通用机器人,将会是 |
| 152 | roughly the digital, the AI software, | 大约是数字软件 AI软件 |
| 153 | how good is the AI software, | AI软件有多好, |
| 154 | times how good is the AI chip in the robot, | 机器人的AI芯片有多好 |
| 155 | times how good is the electromechanical dexterity, | 乘以机电节奏有多好 |
| 156 | especially of the hands. | 特别是手 |
| 157 | Now, all three of those things are improving exponentially. | 现在,这三样东西都在成倍改善。 |
| 158 | And the usefulness of the robot | 机器人的用处 |
| 159 | is those three things multiplied by each other. | 是这三件事 互相乘以。 |
| 160 | Then when you make the robots, | 当你制造机器人时 |
| 161 | the robots will start manufacturing the robots. | 机器人会开始制造机器人 |
| 162 | So, you get a recursive effect. | 所以,你得到一个递归效应。 |
| 163 | So, it starts off very slowly, | 因此,它开始非常缓慢, |
| 164 | but then it grows at an explosive rate. | 但它以爆炸速率增长 |
| 165 | So, if you say like 10 years from now, | 所以,如果你说 像10年后, |
| 166 | I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots. | 我想说,有十亿个机器人 |
| 167 | And the productivity per robot | 每个机器人的生产力 |
| 168 | will be probably five times that of a human, | 可能是人类的五倍 |
| 169 | meaning that the productivity in 10 years | 意味着十年的生产力 |
| 170 | of humanoid robots, | 人类机器人, |
| 171 | and I think this is a conservative estimate, by the way. | 我认为这是一个保守的估计,顺便说一句。 |
| 172 | This is what I'd be willing to put serious money betting on, | 这就是我愿意认真赌钱的原因 |
| 173 | that there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years, | 10年内至少会有十亿个机器人 |
| 174 | and that those robots will be at least | 而那些机器人至少会 |
| 175 | five times the output of a human, | 5倍于人类的输出, |
| 176 | meaning that the billion humanoid robots | 意味着亿万人造机器人 |
| 177 | will be more productive than all humans combined. | 将比所有人类加起来更有生产力。 |
| 178 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 179 | Shifting gears just a little bit | 换个位子 |
| 180 | to a question that's kind of facing the US today. | 面对今天美国所面临的问题 |
| 181 | Data centers have been a big political issue | 数据中心是一个很大的政治问题 |
| 182 | over the last six to eight months here in the United States. | 过去六到八个月 在美国这里 |
| 183 | And I think there's a general understanding | 我认为大家有共同的理解 |
| 184 | that in order to drive and power | 为了驱动和动力 |
| 185 | the AI revolution that's coming, | AI革命即将到来, |
| 186 | we need to have the electricity and the data center | 我们需要电力和数据中心 |
| 187 | compute capacity to do the training | 计算培训能力 |
| 188 | and the inference of all this AI. | 和所有这些AI的推论。 |
| 189 | How do you think about this particular issue? | 你觉得这个问题怎么样? |
| 190 | Where are we on the curve of kind of how much we built | 我们在哪里的曲线 多少我们建造 |
| 191 | versus how much we need? | 我们到底需要多少? |
| 192 | And as government leaders here think about | 正如政府领导人想的那样 |
| 193 | how to prepare their economies | 如何准备经济 |
| 194 | and build the right power and data infrastructure, | 并建设适当的电力和数据基础设施, |
| 195 | how should they be thinking about | 他们应该如何思考 |
| 196 | where sort of compute and power needs | 某种计算和电力需求 |
| 197 | are gonna be in the next few years? | 接下来几年会怎么样? |
| 198 | Well, there actually is quite a crisis of power. | 实际上,这的确是一个相当强权危机。 |
| 199 | So this is something if you just sort of follow | 所以,这是东西 如果你只是排序跟随 |
| 200 | the AI topic on the X platform, | 关于X平台的AI专题, |
| 201 | which by the way is where almost all | 顺便说一句 几乎都是在那里 |
| 202 | of the AI discourse takes place. | 进行大赦国际的讨论。 |
| 203 | I think you get a very good sense | 我觉得你很明白 |
| 204 | for where things are headed. | 为事物的方向。 |
| 205 | So that's how I get my news and it's incredibly good. | 所以,这就是我如何得到 我的消息,这是令人难以置信的好。 |
| 206 | Everyone who's anyone in AI posts on X. | 任何人 谁在AI 贴在X。 |
| 207 | So that's why I'd recommend like just go on the AI topic | 所以我建议你继续说AI话题 |
| 208 | on X and you'll understand all these things | 在X上,你会明白的 |
| 209 | and get a day by day account of things. | 日复一日地记录事情 |
| 210 | And what the consensus is at this point | 现在的共识是什么 |
| 211 | is that there will be a significant power shortfall next year. | 明年将出现重大的权力短缺。 |
| 212 | So not like distant future, | 所以,不像遥远的未来, |
| 213 | there's expected to be, | 有预期, |
| 214 | I believe the consensus estimate among analysts | 我相信分析师们的共识估计 |
| 215 | that follows the AI space very closely | 紧跟AI空间 |
| 216 | is that there will be at least a 15 gigawatt shortfall | 至少将出现15千兆瓦的缺口 |
| 217 | of power in 2027 for AI chips. | 在2027年的动力为AI芯片。 |
| 218 | So this is perhaps an obvious thing | 所以这或许是件显而易见的事 |
| 219 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}那会发生 | |
| 220 | because the rate at which AI chips is being produced | 因为AI芯片的生产速度 |
| 221 | has been rising incredibly rapidly. | 迅速上升。 |
| 222 | They're sort of rising on the order of 40 to 50% a year, | 年薪在40%到50%之间上升 |
| 223 | but the power available outside of China | 但中国以外的电力 |
| 224 | has been rising at like 10 to 20% a year. | 年增长率为10%至20%。 |
| 225 | So obviously the faster rising thing | 所以很明显的是,更快上升的东西 |
| 226 | will eventually overwhelm the slower rising thing. | 最终会战胜缓缓上升的东西。 |
| 227 | And so in fact, even I'd say at this point, | 所以事实上,即使我现在也说, |
| 228 | there are challenges with power even before next year, | 即使在明年之前 权力也面临挑战 |
| 229 | 这就是为什么谷歌和Anthropic | |
| 230 | and many other companies | 和许多其他公司 |
| 231 | are actually leasing compute from SpaceX | 正在实际从 SpaceX 租赁计算 |
| 232 | because we've been able to turn on AI | 因为我们可以打开AI |
| 233 | better than anyone else so far. | 现在比任何人都好 |
| 234 | But this is by constructing our own power plants | 但这是建造我们自己的电厂 |
| 235 | is the only way we were able to do it. | 只有这样我们才能做到 |
| 236 | So now China does have a tremendous amount of electricity, | 所以现在中国的电力量很大 |
| 237 | but due to GPU export bands, | 但由于GPU输出带, |
| 238 | one cannot establish data centers | 无法建立数据中心 |
| 239 | with the latest chips in China. | 与中国最新芯片. |
| 240 | So really the consideration is | 所以,真的考虑 |
| 241 | what sort of electricity growth is there outside of China? | 中国以外的电力增长是什么样的?. |
| 242 | And that is currently a significant shortfall | 这目前是一个很大的缺口 |
| 243 | relative to AI chip production. | 相对AI芯片生产. |
| 244 | So this creates an opportunity, I think, | 因此,这创造了一个机会,我认为, |
| 245 | for countries around the world, | 为世界各国, |
| 246 | just to say if they're interested in AI data centers, | 只是说如果他们对AI数据中心感兴趣 |
| 247 | to construct a lot of power | 来建造大量电力 |
| 248 | and offer that to AI companies. | 并把它提供给AI公司。 |
| 249 | And in exchange, of course, | 当然 作为交换 |
| 250 | these AI data centers would be taxed | 这些人工智能数据中心将被征税 |
| 251 | and have to pay reasonable fees and stuff. | 并且必须支付合理的费用和东西。 |
| 252 | But it does create an opportunity for a lot of countries. | 但这确实为许多国家创造了机会。 |
| 253 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 254 | Well, thank you so much for your time. | 谢谢你抽空来 |
| 255 | It meant a lot that you could join us here | 这很重要 你可以加入我们 |
| 256 | and really appreciate it. | 并真正感谢它。 |
| 257 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 258 | You're most welcome. | 不用谢 |
| 259 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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