【双语音+文稿】(完整版）纳瓦尔深度访谈：核心围绕物理学家戴
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剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 【双语音+文稿】(完整版）纳瓦尔深度访谈：核心围绕物理学家戴 | 1:13:42 |
P1 · 【双语音+文稿】(完整版）纳瓦尔深度访谈：核心围绕物理学家戴维·多伊奇现实构造四大理论，探讨认知、科技与个人成长底层思维逻辑。 p01 英文版 (P1)
【双语音+文稿】(完整版）纳瓦尔深度访谈：核心围绕物理学家戴维·多伊奇现实构造四大理论，探讨认知、科技与个人成长底层思维逻辑。 p01 英文版 (P1)
发布于 2026-09-20 · 时长 1:13:42字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Well, thanks for joining me in the ball. | 谢谢你加入我 |
| 0:02 | Thank you for having me. | 谢谢你邀请我 |
| 0:03 | Let's talk about the four strands of the fabric of reality, theory of epistemology, evolution | 我们来谈谈现实结构的四条线 认识论 进化论 |
| 0:07 | of a natural selection, quantum theory, and computation. | 自然选择 量子理论和计算 |
| 0:12 | Before we get into the specifics of each one, what do these four theories broadly offer | 在我们了解每个理论的具体细节之前 这四个理论能提供什么 |
| 0:16 | to the average person, and why should they care about incorporating each one into their | 以及他们为什么要关心 将每个人纳入他们的 |
| 0:21 | worldviews? | 世界观? |
| 0:22 | 所以我不会贬低David Deutsch的 | |
| 0:23 | This is not my original contribution in any way, but he sort of wanted to have a theory | 这不是我最初的贡献 但他想有一个理论 |
| 0:31 | of everything. | 所有东西。 |
展开字幕全文（1429 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Well, thanks for joining me in the ball. | 谢谢你加入我 |
| 2 | Thank you for having me. | 谢谢你邀请我 |
| 3 | Let's talk about the four strands of the fabric of reality, theory of epistemology, evolution | 我们来谈谈现实结构的四条线 认识论 进化论 |
| 4 | of a natural selection, quantum theory, and computation. | 自然选择 量子理论和计算 |
| 5 | Before we get into the specifics of each one, what do these four theories broadly offer | 在我们了解每个理论的具体细节之前 这四个理论能提供什么 |
| 6 | to the average person, and why should they care about incorporating each one into their | 以及他们为什么要关心 将每个人纳入他们的 |
| 7 | worldviews? | 世界观? |
| 8 | 所以我不会贬低David Deutsch的 | |
| 9 | This is not my original contribution in any way, but he sort of wanted to have a theory | 这不是我最初的贡献 但他想有一个理论 |
| 10 | of everything. | 所有东西。 |
| 11 | He wanted to understand everything that could be understood, not in the sense of where every | 他想了解一切可以被理解的事物 而不是从每个 |
| 12 | particle in the world ends up or what's going to happen, but just the underlying explanation | 世界上的粒子 最终还是会发生什么 但只是背后的解释 |
| 13 | to the best of our knowledge as to what was causative or how it happened. | 以我们所知的 原因或事情的发生方式 |
| 14 | And he landed upon these four theories as being the deepest strands. | 他把这四个理论当作最深层的理论 |
| 15 | They have the furthest reach, so the most applicability. | 它们最远,所以最适用。 |
| 16 | They have the deepest, most underlying explanations at the right level, not just purely at the | 他们有最深,最基本的解释 在正确的层次, 不只是在 |
| 17 | level of particles hitting each other, but at the level where you can actually use it | 粒子互相撞击的水平,但是在可以实际使用的水平上 |
| 18 | in everyday life. | 在日常生活中, |
| 19 | And then I think if you were to talk to David, or if you were to read his books carefully, | 然后我想如果你要和大卫说话 或者仔细阅读他的书 |
| 20 | you would realize that even splitting these into four theories is kind of splitting hairs. | 你会意识到,即使把这些 分成四个理论 是一种分裂的头发。 |
| 21 | Because knowledge is a crystal, it's a single thing. | 因为知识是水晶,它就是一个单一的东西. |
| 22 | Nature hath no boundaries, as the famous saying goes. | 自然没有边界,正如著名的谚语所说。 |
| 23 | And everything connects to everything. | 而一切众生与一切相通. |
| 24 | It's a nature of creativity you can get from A to Z, not just from A to B to C. | 这是一种创造力的性质,你可以从A到Z,而不只是从A到B到C. |
| 25 | You don't have to pass every point in between in idea space to get from one idea to another. | 你不必在思想空间之间 传递每一个点 来从一个想法到另一个想法。 |
| 26 | So these are deeply intermeshed. | 因此,这些是深层的。 |
| 27 | And what I find fascinating about his work is that understanding any one of these theories | 我发现他的作品令人着迷的是 能理解其中任何一个理论 |
| 28 | not only helps you in that theory, not only actually helps you in everyday life, in some | 不仅有助于你的理论, 不仅实际上帮助你的日常生活, 在一些 |
| 29 | cases, not all, but they also connect to each other in very deep and interesting ways. | 并不是所有的案例,但它们也以非常深刻和有趣的方式相互连接。 |
| 30 | And so it's one of those worldviews that has to be absorbed as a whole. | 因此,世界观必须被整体吸收。 |
| 31 | Although even calling it a worldview is doing it a disservice, because a worldview is often | 虽然它甚至称它为世界观 这样做是有害的, 因为世界观往往是 |
| 32 | just an opinion. | 只是一个意见。 |
| 33 | Whether I'm a communist or a capitalist or a Democrat or a Republican, these are worldviews. | 无论我是一个共产主义者,一个资本主义者,一个民主党人,还是一个共和党人,这些都是世界观. |
| 34 | But these are grounded in our best theories in physics, mathematics, computation, evolution, | 但是这些是建立在 我们最好的理论 在物理,数学,计算,进化, |
| 35 | biology, et cetera. | 生物学等. |
| 36 | And so economics, philosophy, sociology, politics, whatever. | 所以经济,哲学,社会学,政治,等等。 |
| 37 | But so to contradict a piece of what you're saying and what he's saying in one place often | 但为了反驳你说的话 和他经常在一个地方说的话 |
| 38 | means that you have to then go ahead and explain something that you thought was unrelated, | 意思是,你必须去解释一些你认为无关的东西, |
| 39 | but is actually deeply related and say, well, then how do you explain that? | 但实际上有很深的亲缘关系,说, 那么,你怎么解释呢? |
| 40 | So I find his worldview is a framework and it's a framework that's rooted in fundamentals | 我发现他的世界观是一个框架,它是一个根植于基本原理的框架 |
| 41 | and sciences, which is not to say it's impossible to challenge. | 和科学,这并不是说 这是不可能挑战。 |
| 42 | One should always feel free to challenge any part of it. | 人们应该永远自由地挑战其中的任何部分。 |
| 43 | It's just the way to challenge it is to have a better theory, not just to say, well, that | 这只是挑战的方法 是有一个更好的理论, 不只是说,嗯, |
| 44 | doesn't quite work because, well, that explains something and then there are other things | 不太有效,因为,嗯, 这解释了一些东西,然后还有其他的东西 |
| 45 | that explain that thing and there are other things that that explains. | 也还有别的事可以解释 |
| 46 | So you have to look at it as a web. | 故须视其为网. |
| 47 | And it's hard to absorb that. | 这很难吸收 |
| 48 | It's hard to take that from another person, especially when your ego steps in the way | 很难从另一个人那里夺走, 特别是当你的自我 踏入了道路 |
| 49 | and says, well, how did this guy figure it all out? | 并说,嗯, 这家伙是怎么想出来的? |
| 50 | So I think if you remove the person from the theories, you have to read both of his books, | 所以我想如果你把当事人从理论中删除 你必须读他的两本书 |
| 51 | I would argue, and you would have to absorb them fairly well. | 我会争吵,你必须好好吸收他们 |
| 52 | It's not a small endeavor. | 这不是一个小努力。 |
| 53 | But on the other hand, it can give you a framework for better reasoning and better thinking that | 但另一方面,它可以给你一个框架 更好的推理和更好的思考 |
| 54 | can make you smarter. | 让你更聪明 |
| 55 | There are not a lot of things in this world that can make you smarter. | 世界上没有什么东西可以让你更聪明。 |
| 56 | Is that how you pitch Nohich's books to people unfamiliar with his work? | 你就这样把诺希奇的书 投给不熟悉他工作的人? |
| 57 | Yeah, I don't really even care about pitching, but yes, that is how I describe it. | 是啊,我甚至不关心投球, 但是,是的,这就是我如何描述它。 |
| 58 | I would say that it's the only thing that I can point to in my adult life that has improved | 我会说,这是我唯一 能指出 在我成年生活 改善 |
| 59 | my thinking, decision making and fundamental outlook. | 我的思想、决策和基本展望 |
| 60 | Now, there are other people who have been incredibly influential. | 现在,还有其他人, 他们有惊人的影响力。 |
| 61 | There was a time when I went through Nassim Taleb's work, for example, and I found it | 有段时间,我通过纳西姆·塔莱布的作品 例如,我发现 |
| 62 | very useful. | 很有用处 |
| 63 | So it's not to say it's the only useful thing out there. | 所以这不是说这是唯一有用的东西。 |
| 64 | But I think his framework has the deepest explanations and the furthest reach. | 但我认为,他的框架有最深刻的解释和最远的范围。 |
| 65 | So you will find yourself applying it all over the place. | 所以,你会发现自己应用 到处。 |
| 66 | That said, I think it's a mistake to apply it dogmatically or to say, oh, I believe that | 这么说,我觉得用教条来应用它或说,哦,我相信 |
| 67 | because David Deutsch said so, or because it's part of critical rationalism, or even | 因为David Deutsch是这么说的 或者因为它是批评理性主义的一部分 |
| 68 | to ask like, what does David think about this? | 大卫觉得怎么样? |
| 69 | I think that is a mistake. | 我认为这是一个错误。 |
| 70 | Instead, you just have to absorb the ideas. | 相反,你只需要吸收这些想法。 |
| 71 | And some of these ideas I have absorbed and some of them I haven't. | 我吸收了一些想法, 有些想法我还没有。 |
| 72 | I'm not an expert in quantum physics, even the computation and mathematical parts. | 我不是量子物理专家,甚至计算和数学部分。 |
| 73 | I struggled, although I gave it a good effort. | 我挣扎着 虽然我付出了很大努力 |
| 74 | And I learned something a little bit more every time. | 我每次都学到一些东西。 |
| 75 | But I think at the end of the day, it's about the ideas. | 但我想,最后,这是关于 想法。 |
| 76 | You have to take each idea, you have to evaluate it on its own merits. | 你必须接受每个想法, 你必须评估它本身的优点。 |
| 77 | And then if you can, you have to absorb it into your framework of thinking until the | 如果你可以的话,你必须把它吸收进你的思维框架,直到 |
| 78 | next better idea comes along. | 下一个更好的主意来了。 |
| 79 | And if you can't figure it out, then you should reject it. | 如果你无法解开,你应该拒绝它。 |
| 80 | The mistake would be to memorize it. | 错误是记住它。 |
| 81 | Let's dig a bit into epistemology, because this documentary is primarily about that | 我们来研究一下认知 因为这部纪录片主要是关于 |
| 82 | subject and that strand of the four strands of his fabric of reality, which, as you | 主题和他现实结构的四条线的一线 和你一样 |
| 83 | mentioned, is kind of a mistake to think of them separately, but rather as a whole | 提到过,是种错误 分别思考它们, 而不是作为一个整体 |
| 84 | world view or a framework. | 世界观或框架。 |
| 85 | So fallibleism, right, it's the opposite of dogmatism and relativism in a sense in | 因此,错误主义,正确的, 它的对立 教条主义和相对主义 在某种意义上 |
| 86 | that it says you can be wrong, there's something objective to be wrong about. | 它说你可能错了, 有一些客观是错的。 |
| 87 | And both relativism and dogmatism reject that in the sense that | 相对主义和教条主义都拒绝 |
| 88 | dogmatism says you can't be wrong if you've read the script, this is what came from | 教条主义说,如果你读过剧本,你不会错的,这是从 |
| 89 | God and you necessarily can't be wrong. | 上帝和你一定不会错的 |
| 90 | And with relativism, it's like everyone has their own truth. | 而以相对论,则似人人自有其真. |
| 91 | And again, you can't be wrong. | 再说一遍,你不会错的 |
| 92 | So I guess how have you applied epistemology to your personal or professional lives? | 所以我猜你是如何将认知应用到你的个人或职业生活中的? |
| 93 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 94 | So let me start off by saying I don't like words like epistemology and fallibleism, | 因此,让我首先说, 我不喜欢像 认识论和谬误论, |
| 95 | because I think they take things that are very simple and they overcomplicate them. | 因为我认为他们采取的东西 非常简单 和它们过于复杂。 |
| 96 | And I understand why they exist. | 我理解为什么它们存在 |
| 97 | They exist as a jargon for philosophers and logicians to communicate more efficiently | 它们作为哲学家和逻辑学家更有效地沟通的术语而存在. |
| 98 | and more precisely. | 更确切一点 |
| 99 | But I think for the everyday person, they just put up a barrier between the thing and | 但我想,对于日常的人, 他们只是设置了一个屏障 东西和 |
| 100 | the knowledge and the person. | 知识与人. |
| 101 | And it's actually very simple. | 这其实很简单。 |
| 102 | Epistemology is just the theory of knowledge, which is another way of saying, how do you | 心理学只是知识理论,这是另一种说法,你怎么解释? |
| 103 | know what's true versus how do you know what's false? | 知道什么是真实的,你怎么知道什么是虚假的? |
| 104 | And this is something that you have to do every day as you go through all of life. | 这是你每天必须做的, 当你经历所有的生活。 |
| 105 | How do you know what's true? | 何以知真谛. |
| 106 | How do you know it's likely to be true? | 你怎么知道这有可能是真的? |
| 107 | How do you know what someone's telling you is the truth or not? | 你怎么知道有人告诉你什么是真相? |
| 108 | How do you know if some theory you have is correct or not? | 你怎么知道你的理论是否正确? |
| 109 | So how do you know something is true? | 你怎么知道事情是真的吗? |
| 110 | And then fallibleism just means you not only can you always be wrong, you probably are | 错误主义意味着你不仅可以 永远是错的,你很可能是 |
| 111 | always wrong and you should always be trying to correct your mistakes. | 总是错的,你应该 总是试图纠正你的错误。 |
| 112 | You should always be trying to get closer and closer to the truth. | 你应该一直试着接近真相 |
| 113 | And as you pointed out, people can confuse that with relativism, which is very different. | 正如你所指出,人们可以把这一点与相对主义混淆起来,后者非常不同。 |
| 114 | Relativism is just saying, well, everyone has their own truth and so we're all correct. | 相对主义只是说, 好吧,每个人都有自己的真理 所以我们都是正确的。 |
| 115 | Well, that's obviously not true. | 这显然不是真的 |
| 116 | Like not everybody has their own view of the steam engine or the electric motor and how | 像不是每个人都有自己的观点 蒸汽机或电动机 |
| 117 | those work. | 这些工作。 |
| 118 | In the same way, not everything is correct. | 同样,并不是一切是正确的。 |
| 119 | Like, for example, we know that, you know, command and control top down organization | 比如,我们知道,你知道, 指挥和控制上层组织 |
| 120 | doesn't work well for economies. | 对经济并不好 |
| 121 | Right. | 对 |
| 122 | So there are absolute truths, there are moral truths like slavery is wrong or | 所以有绝对的真理,有道德的真理 像奴隶制是错误的或者 |
| 123 | just the simple golden rule, you know, do unto others as you'd be done by, or the | 只是简单的黄金规则,你知道, 做别人,你将会做的,或者 |
| 124 | silver rule that don't do things to others that you wouldn't want done to you. | 银色的规则,不做事情 别人,你不希望做给你。 |
| 125 | Right. | 对 |
| 126 | So there are even there's even moral | 连道德都有 |
| 127 | progress. | 进展。 |
| 128 | So we do have things that are more true than other things. | 所以我们确实有比其他事情更真实的事情。 |
| 129 | So just because we can never know the ultimate truth and we should always be open | 所以,只是因为我们永远不知道 最终真理,我们应该永远开放 |
| 130 | 介意的 A. k. a. | |
| 131 | fallible or be a fallible list. | 假的或是一个假的列表。 |
| 132 | Again, I don't like that word, but just because you can you're always in a state of | 再说一遍,我不喜欢这个词, 但只是因为你能永远处于一种状态 |
| 133 | uncertainty. | 不确定性。 |
| 134 | But yet there are things that have a greater truth composition than | 但是,有些事情 真相构成比 |
| 135 | others. | 别人。 |
| 136 | You just have to get away from this binary thinking of true and false. | 你只需要远离这种二进制的真假思维. |
| 137 | So there are things that are more true and there are things that are less true. | 所以有的更真实,有的更不真实. |
| 138 | And the nice thing is that this coincides with common sense. | 不错的是,这与常识相吻合。 |
| 139 | You pointed out that groups often search for consensus and individual search for | 你们指出,团体往往寻求共识,个别寻求 |
| 140 | truth and that making something social destroys the truth of it. | 事实和让社会的东西 破坏它的真理。 |
| 141 | And nowadays in the social sciences, you know, political influence seem to motivate a | 而现在的社会科学,你知道, 政治影响 似乎促使 |
| 142 | lot of what's happening there and often feel like when people claim that they're | 很多事情发生在那里, 常常感觉像 当人们声称他们是 |
| 143 | doing science, it's often to tell the opposite with political science and climate | 做科学,往往与政治学和气候相反 |
| 144 | science. | 科学。 |
| 145 | Nobody really says physical science or chemical science, right? | 没有人真的说物理科学或化学科学,对不对? |
| 146 | It's just physics and chemistry and biology. | 这只是物理和化学以及生物学。 |
| 147 | So I'm curious how you think individuals can independently pursue the search for | 所以我好奇你认为个人如何独立寻找 |
| 148 | truth when there are such strong incentives to just conform and be a sheep. | 当有如此强烈的激励 正直的服从和成为一只羊。 |
| 149 | Yeah, I'm deeply suspicious of groups of people coming to the truth in anything, | 是的,我深为怀疑 一群人从任何事物中找到真相, |
| 150 | because it's not to say groups are bad. | 因为这不是说团体是坏的。 |
| 151 | Humans are cooperators by nature. | 人类自然是合作者. |
| 152 | We need groups to get things done. | 我们需要团体来完成事情。 |
| 153 | But groups need consensus. | 但是,各集团需要达成共识。 |
| 154 | A group that does not have consensus will fall apart. | 一个没有达成共识的集团将分崩离析。 |
| 155 | So a group will not admit its mistakes. | 因此,一个团体不会承认其错误。 |
| 156 | It will not admit that it was wrong. | 它不会承认这是错误的。 |
| 157 | It will not pivot. | 它不会枢机。 |
| 158 | It's not a truth seeking entity. | 这不是一个寻求真相的实体。 |
| 159 | Individuals can seek truth. | 个人可以寻求真理。 |
| 160 | And then based on that, they can choose to cooperate with others for limited periods | 在此基础上,他们可以选择 与他人合作的有限时间 |
| 161 | of times to effectuate that truth or to have something come out of it. | 以证明真相或从中得出什么 |
| 162 | But if you're really looking for truth, it's the opposite of looking for social | 但是如果你真的在寻找真理, 寻找社会是相反的 |
| 163 | approval. | 核准。 |
| 164 | Truth requires feedback. | 真相需要反馈。 |
| 165 | It requires error correction. | 需要更正错误。 |
| 166 | Where does that feedback come from? | 这种反馈来自何处? |
| 167 | Well, there are three sources of feedback in reality. | 现实中有三个反馈来源 |
| 168 | There's two that are very natural and one that we've invented in modern times. | 有两个非常自然,一个是我们在现代发明的. |
| 169 | The two that are natural are nature. | 自然二种即是自然义. |
| 170 | If I drop an apple, it falls to the ground. | 如果我掉个苹果,它就会掉到地上 |
| 171 | There's a truth there of gravity. | 这里有引力的真理 |
| 172 | I can't deny it. | 我无法否认 |
| 173 | That's nature giving me feedback. | 大自然给了我反馈 |
| 174 | So as a scientist, a physical scientist, I would naturally gravitate towards that | 所以作为一个科学家,一个物理科学家, 我会自然地引向 |
| 175 | truth. | 事实 |
| 176 | No pun intended. | 没有双关语的意思。 |
| 177 | But there's also a truth of social approval, which is if I want to if I want to get | 但也有社会认同的真相 如果我想得到 |
| 178 | along with my group, then I can take feedback from people like, did you like that? | 和我的小组, 然后我可以接受 反馈的人喜欢, 你喜欢吗? |
| 179 | Did you approve of what I did? | 你同意我所做的吗? |
| 180 | And then the one that we've invented as a truth seeking mechanism is free markets, | 然后我们发明的 寻找真相的机制是自由市场, |
| 181 | where in a free market, it's not a mob. | 在自由市场,它不是暴徒。 |
| 182 | It's actually the opposite. | 这其实恰恰相反。 |
| 183 | The applause comes from the mob, which is a group of people who are thinking the | 掌声来自暴徒 一群人在想 |
| 184 | same and trying to coordinate. | 并试图协调。 |
| 185 | A free market is where individuals are voting differently and they're voting on a | 自由市场是个人投票方式不同, |
| 186 | merit basis and they're being punished for bad predictions and they're being | 他们被罚的预言不好 他们正在 |
| 187 | rewarded for good predictions. | 善报善报. |
| 188 | So free markets are also a source of truth seeking in that, for example, if I | 因此,自由市场也是寻求真理的来源,例如,如果我 |
| 189 | think that there's a I think alphabet is a great stock and I buy it, but I turn out | 我觉得有张字母表是很棒的股票 我买了它,但我发现 |
| 190 | to be wrong, then the truth of the market will punish me as the feedback comes in | 说错的话,市场真相就会惩罚我 |
| 191 | and I will lose my money. | 我会失去我的钱。 |
| 192 | So these are sort of the three mechanisms you have for getting feedback from the | 所以,这些是三种机制 你拥有从得到反馈 |
| 193 | environment. | 环境。 |
| 194 | They're not all equal. | 二者不无平等. |
| 195 | There's actually a fourth, which is the part of nature, which is just survival. | 实际上还有第四个,这就是自然的一部分, 它只是生存。 |
| 196 | But we break that out into its own thing called evolution, survival of the fittest. | 但是我们把它分解成它自己的东西 叫做进化,适者的生存。 |
| 197 | Right. | 对 |
| 198 | I think the natural truth seeking mechanisms will lead you to truth. | 我认为,寻求真相的自然机制将引导你找到真相。 |
| 199 | The social one will lead you to social approval, but it will not lead you to | 社交的会引领你得到社会认可 但不会引领你 |
| 200 | truth. | 事实 |
| 201 | It can lead you into all kinds of dead ends. | 它可以引导你进入各种死胡同. |
| 202 | And unfortunately, most people not only get their feedback from there, they | 不幸的是,大多数人不仅从那里得到反馈 |
| 203 | actually get their theories from there. | 从那里得到他们的理论。 |
| 204 | So that's what I call a difference between reasoning from first principles | 所以,这就是我所说的区别 推理与第一原则 |
| 205 | versus reasoning by proxy. | 相对于代理推理. |
| 206 | If you're reasoning for first principles, which is what you do for things that | 如果你在为第一原理推理 那就是你为那些 |
| 207 | you really care about, then you would examine the truth of the statement for | 你真正关心的, 然后你会检查 声明的真相为 |
| 208 | yourself. | 你自己来 |
| 209 | You would be skeptical. | 你会怀疑的 |
| 210 | You would test it. | 你会测试它。 |
| 211 | And then if it if it turns out to be true, you would know that because you get | 如果是真的,你会知道 因为你得到 |
| 212 | feedback from the right places. | 从正确的地点反馈。 |
| 213 | And if it turned out to be false, you get punished. | 如果结果是假的,你会受到惩罚。 |
| 214 | But if you're getting your feedback from other people, you're usually going to | 但是如果你得到别人的反馈,你通常会 |
| 215 | end up with the wrong answer. | 最终得到的答案是错误的。 |
| 216 | So examples of this are like their entire professions where all your feedback | 所以这个例子就像他们整个职业 在那里你所有的反馈 |
| 217 | comes from other people. | 来自于其他人。 |
| 218 | Politics is a prime example of that. | 政治是这方面的一个典型例子。 |
| 219 | Anything political, social sciences, you know, I'm deeply suspicious of anything | 任何政治,社会科学,你知道, 我深深怀疑任何事情 |
| 220 | that starts with the word social, social sciences, socialism, social engineering, | 社会科学 社会主义 社会工程 |
| 221 | social justice, you name it, because this is all about groupthink. | 社会公正,你说它, 因为这是所有关于群体思考。 |
| 222 | So it's not a mechanism for truth. | 故非真谛之机制. |
| 223 | It's a mechanism for coordination and cooperation. | 这是一种协调与合作的机制。 |
| 224 | Often it means we're going to beat the truth into you or you better get a | 通常这意味着我们要打 真相进入你,或 你最好得到一个 |
| 225 | wrong with us and our truth or else. | 我们和我们的真相都错了 |
| 226 | Right. | 对 |
| 227 | And Deutsch has this idea of the principle of optimism that all evil is | 而Deutsch有这种乐观原则的想法 所有邪恶都是 |
| 228 | due to a lack of knowledge and anything not forbidden by the laws of physics is | 由于缺乏知识和物理法则所不禁止的一切 |
| 229 | possible given that right knowledge. | 如果有正确的知识, |
| 230 | And so we should try and organize society and coordinate society in a way that | 因此,我们应该努力组织社会,协调社会的方式 |
| 231 | maximizes the growth of knowledge, which doesn't which the social approval | 最大限度地增加知识,而知识却不是社会认可的 |
| 232 | aspect doesn't really fulfill. | 层面并不真正满足。 |
| 233 | Yeah, in fact, it's almost oxymoronic. | 是的,事实上,它几乎是催产。 |
| 234 | You don't organize society. | 你不组织社会。 |
| 235 | You almost have to disorganize society. | 你几乎要破坏社会组织 |
| 236 | It's not that you reward people as you just stop punishing people for truth | 不是因为你不再惩罚别人 |
| 237 | seeking, but we do need certain rules of cooperation to get along. | 寻求,但我们确实需要某些合作规则才能相处。 |
| 238 | If we don't have some minimum amount of rules, there's always cheaters in any | 如果我们没有最低限度的规则, 总是有骗子在任何 |
| 239 | system and those cheaters will overwhelm the system. | 而那些作弊者会压倒整个系统 |
| 240 | It doesn't take a lot. | 亦无甚费. |
| 241 | It just takes a few people, you know, committing crimes or driving on the wrong | 只需要几个人,你知道的,犯罪或开车走错路 |
| 242 | side of the road, you know, or, you know, just taking everything in running or | 路边,你知道的, 或者,你知道,只是把一切 在运行或 |
| 243 | tragedy of the commons, whichever, whichever model you want to use. | 共同的悲剧, 以任何你想要使用的模式为准。 |
| 244 | But the history of the human species is figuring out how to cooperate while | 但人类的历史正在研究如何合作 |
| 245 | keeping the cheaters out from breaking the system. | 不让作弊者破坏系统 |
| 246 | Otherwise the parasites overwhelm the host and the system dies. | 否则寄生虫会压倒宿主,系统会死亡. |
| 247 | And a lot of people nowadays are concerned about us running out of resources | 现在很多人都担心我们资源耗尽了 |
| 248 | and they propose the solution is degrowth. | 他们提出解决方案是脱产。 |
| 249 | Can you make the case for a greater population and that the idea that our | 你能为更多的人辩护吗? |
| 250 | resources are at any given point of time are only limited by our knowledge and | 资源在任何特定时间点都受我们的知识限制, |
| 251 | obviously the laws of physics? | 很明显是物理定律? |
| 252 | Well, there's two different issues here. | 这里有两个不同的问题 |
| 253 | One is, you know, are we running out of resources and what is a resource and all | 其一,你知道,我们耗尽资源 资源是什么,所有 |
| 254 | that? | 那个? |
| 255 | And then the second is, are we destroying the environment, the biosphere | 第二,我们破坏环境,生物圈 |
| 256 | as we replicate, you know, are we an invasive species that's taking out the | 正如我们复制,你知道, 我们是一个入侵物种 正在消灭 |
| 257 | earth? | 地球吗? |
| 258 | The first one is easier. | 第一个更容易 |
| 259 | Are we running out of resources? | 我们没有资源了吗? |
| 260 | No, we've never run out of a single resource ever. | 不,我们从未用完任何资源 |
| 261 | There's not a single resource you could point to that was a resource in the | 没有一个资源可以指 资源在其中 |
| 262 | classic commodity sense that had any real value where we ran out in some | 经典的商品感 有任何真正的价值 我们跑出一些 |
| 263 | harmful way because technology is the is the act of substituting away from one | 有害的方式,因为技术是 代替一种行为 |
| 264 | resource to another. | 资源到另一个区域。 |
| 265 | As we ran out of burning wood, we started burning coal. | 当我们用光了燃烧的木材, 我们开始烧煤。 |
| 266 | We ran out of coal. | 我们没煤了 |
| 267 | We actually didn't run out of coal, but we went from coal to oil. | 我们实际上并没有耗尽煤炭, 但我们从煤炭到石油。 |
| 268 | And before we could even run out of oil, despite all the peak oil nonsense around | 之前,我们甚至可以耗尽石油, 尽管所有的高峰石油胡说八道 |
| 269 | the year 2000, we have gotten we've gotten nuclear, we've got solar, we've got | 2000年,我们得到了核, 我们得到了太阳能,我们得到了 |
| 270 | wind. | 风. |
| 271 | The universe is full of unlimited resources. | 宇宙充满无限资源. |
| 272 | The universe, the multiverse, whichever version you take, is staggeringly large, | 宇宙,多面体,无论你采用哪种版本,都是惊人的庞大, |
| 273 | way beyond your ability to cause to run out of resources. | 超越你的能力 造成资源耗尽。 |
| 274 | We haven't even wrapped a Dyson sphere around the sun and extracted all of that | 我们甚至还没有包裹一个戴森球体环绕太阳 并提取所有的东西 |
| 275 | energy. | 能源。 |
| 276 | There is unlimited energy, even the so-called empty cubic meter of space. | 有无限的能量,甚至所谓的空立方尺的空间. |
| 277 | There's plenty of energy. | 能量充沛. |
| 278 | It's literally just a question of knowledge. | 这其实只是一个知识问题。 |
| 279 | Dark matter, dark energy equals MC squared nuclear fusion. | 暗物质,暗能量等于MC平方核聚变. |
| 280 | There's unlimited energy. | 有无限能量. |
| 281 | The only thing that's holding us back is knowledge. | 唯一能阻止我们的是知识 |
| 282 | The same way the same is true of any resource. | 任何资源都一样。 |
| 283 | You know, are we running out of wood? | 你知道,我们没有木材了吗? |
| 284 | No, we can grow wood. | 不,我们可以种植木材。 |
| 285 | You know, we can grow unlimited trees, we can plant unlimited trees. | 我们可以种无限制的树 我们可以种无限制的树 |
| 286 | So eventually we might find a future civilization may be able to synthesize | 因此,我们最终可能会找到 一个未来的文明 可能能够合成 |
| 287 | trees, maybe synthesize long dead trees. | 树木,也许合成长死树。 |
| 288 | So it is always a question of knowledge. | 因此,这总是一个知识问题。 |
| 289 | So that is that should put the resource argument to rest, although it won't | 所以,这应该让资源争论停止 虽然它不会 |
| 290 | because there are people who are dogmatically committed to the idea that we're | 因为有些人 教条性地承诺 我们的想法 |
| 291 | running out of resources. | 资源耗尽。 |
| 292 | And, you know, they're not fallibilists, to use your earlier phrase, and they're | 而且,你知道,他们不是 fallibilists, 用你的早期短语, 他们是 |
| 293 | not going to revise their worldview. | 也不会改变他们的世界观 |
| 294 | Based on mere logic. | 仅仅基于逻辑。 |
| 295 | But then the question is, like, are we destroying the earth? | 但问题是 我们是否要摧毁地球? |
| 296 | Well, that's a little more subtle. | 嗯,这是有点微妙。 |
| 297 | The earth is a little hostile to us to begin with, like the actual natural | 地球开始对我们有点敌意 就像真正的自然一样 |
| 298 | state of the earth would support a population of hunter gatherers at numbers | 地球状况将支持数量众多的猎人采集者 |
| 299 | in the millions, not the billions. | 以百万计,而不是亿万计。 |
| 300 | So we're already well past that. | 所以我们早就过了 |
| 301 | And we might actually save the earth in that long term. | 我们也许能从长远来看拯救地球。 |
| 302 | We might stop the next heavy bombardment. | 我们可以阻止下一次猛烈轰炸 |
| 303 | We might start the next asteroid from hitting the earth. | 我们可能会从撞击地球开始下一颗小行星 |
| 304 | Humans, through the creation of knowledge, are the only ones who can save the earth. | 人类通过创造知识,是唯一能拯救地球的人. |
| 305 | But you could argue that we're moving too fast. | 但你可以说我们行动太快了 |
| 306 | We are destroying the earth so quickly that our knowledge and using up the earth | 我们毁灭地球的速度如此之快,以至于我们的知识和地球的耗尽 |
| 307 | and destroying and consuming it is outstripping our ability to rejuvenate | 摧毁和消耗它 超越我们振兴的能力 |
| 308 | it and to replenish it. | 和补充它。 |
| 309 | And I think there there's a debate, but I think the people who tend to win that | 我认为有争论, 但我认为人们 谁倾向于赢得 |
| 310 | debate are kind of they're just looking at the things that are right in front of | 辩论是种 他们只是看 事物在前面 |
| 311 | their face and not paying attention to the larger picture, and they tend to be | 他们的脸,而不注意 更大的画面,他们倾向于 |
| 312 | rather dogmatic or religious in their beliefs. | 他们的信仰相当教条或宗教化 |
| 313 | But I think the reality is mixed. | 但我认为现实是混杂的。 |
| 314 | Yes, of course, species have gone extinct due to humans. | 是的,当然,物种已经灭绝 由于人类。 |
| 315 | Species go extinct, not due to human activity whatsoever all the time. | 物种会灭绝,不是因为人类的活动 任何时间。 |
| 316 | The vast, vast majority of species that have ever existed are extinct because | 曾经存在的绝大多数物种都已经灭绝了 因为 |
| 317 | they did not adapt. | 他们没有适应。 |
| 318 | Humans can actually resurrect species. | 人类实际上可以复活物种. |
| 319 | We're bringing back the woolly mammoth. | 我们把羊毛毛毛带回来 |
| 320 | Anything with DNA signature, we can resurrect as, yeah, we're cutting down | 任何有DNA签名的东西, 我们可以复活 作为,是的,我们正在削减 |
| 321 | forests. | 森林问题。 |
| 322 | We're also planting forests. | 我们还在种植森林。 |
| 323 | North America is now a net carbon sink. | 北美现在是一个净碳汇. |
| 324 | We've added so much forest cover because as people get richer, they plant gardens | 我们增加了这么多的森林覆盖 因为随着人们的富裕 他们种植花园 |
| 325 | and trees. | 还有树 |
| 326 | Now are these old growth forests? | 这些是古老的生长森林吗? |
| 327 | No, but they will be someday. | 不,不过他们总有一天会来的 |
| 328 | We're probably going to terraform Mars at some point. | 我们可能会在某个时候去火星。 |
| 329 | You know, that'll be a lot more life than was there before. | 生活会比以前多得多 |
| 330 | So I think these things are more arguable, but as long as the technology is there, we | 所以,我认为这些事情是比较可论证的, 但只要有技术,我们 |
| 331 | can always kind of earn our way out of it. | 总是能从中挣钱 |
| 332 | If climate change is an issue and it's hard to discuss because it's become so | 如果气候变化是一个问题 很难讨论 因为它变得如此 |
| 333 | politicized, you know, we can carbon capture out of the environment. | 政治化,你知道, 我们可以从环境中获取碳。 |
| 334 | But I think I think there are people who view the world as like this idyllic, | 但我想有人会把世界看成这样 |
| 335 | perfect place and that we just came along and ruined it and anything we do in any | 完美的地方,我们只是来了 并毁了它和任何我们做的 |
| 336 | direction ruins it, whether we try to save it or whether we try not to save it. | 方向破坏它,无论是我们试图拯救它,还是我们试图不拯救它。 |
| 337 | And I think that's just fundamentally anti-human philosophy. | 我认为这只是从根本上反人类哲学。 |
| 338 | They just want us to go back to five million people living in the Garden of Eden | 他们只想让我们回到住在伊甸园的五百万人身边 |
| 339 | and there was no such thing. | 没有这种事 |
| 340 | And to that, I just say you first. | 至此,我只说先. |
| 341 | Yeah, Marxism, right? | 是啊,马克思主义,对不对? |
| 342 | Like you, you start out with, oh, we already have everything, but some people have | 像你一样,你开始, 哦,我们已经拥有一切, 但有些人有 |
| 343 | more than their fair share. | 超过他们应得的份额。 |
| 344 | And so what we really need is just to all redistribution and for everybody to, you | 所以,我们真正需要的 就是所有再分配 和每个人,你 |
| 345 | know, share. | 知道,共享。 |
| 346 | And Marxism, besides denying human incentives, also has a problem where it just | 而马克思主义除了否认人类的激励之外,还存在一个问题,那就是: |
| 347 | assumes that everything is finite and we're all just dividing up the same small | 假设一切都是有限的 我们都只是 分开同样的小 |
| 348 | set of things. | 一套东西。 |
| 349 | Well, the cavemen didn't have color TVs and computers and cars and antibiotics | 洞穴人没有彩色电视 电脑 汽车 抗生素 |
| 350 | and medicine, you know, they were not sitting around dividing up the same few | 和药,你知道, 他们不是坐在周围 分隔同样的少数 |
| 351 | things. | 东西。 |
| 352 | The knowledge grows, we create more. | 知识增长,我们创造更多。 |
| 353 | It also tends to assume that we can freeze frame at some point in society and say, | 它也倾向于假设 我们可以冻结框架 在社会的某个时候 说, |
| 354 | well, we have enough different kinds of sneakers and we have enough different | 好了,我们有足够的不同种类的运动鞋 我们有足够的不同 |
| 355 | kinds. | 类型。 |
| 356 | We have enough housing. | 我们有足够的住房。 |
| 357 | We just need to allocate it better. | 我们只需要更好地分配它。 |
| 358 | And that is not how anything works. | 事情不是这样的 |
| 359 | Deutsch has a great definition of wealth, which he says wealth is the set of | Deutsch对财富的定义很明确 他说财富是一组 |
| 360 | physical transformations that we can affect or not even physical set of | 物理改变,我们可以 影响甚至物理组合 |
| 361 | transformations that we can affect, although every transformation is physical | 尽管每个转变都是物理的 |
| 362 | ultimately. | 最终。 |
| 363 | And so when you think about it that way, you realize that knowledge is not just | 所以当你这样想的时候 你意识到知识不仅仅是 |
| 364 | stored up capital in the classic Marxist sense, you know, capital versus | 在典型的马克思主义意义上储存资本, 你知道,资本对 |
| 365 | labor, but it's also knowledge and what to do with that capital. | 劳动,但它也是知识 和如何与资本。 |
| 366 | The cavemen or the Paleolithic ancestors had access to all the same resources we | 洞穴人或旧石器时代的祖先 拥有我们所有的资源 |
| 367 | did. | 没错 |
| 368 | They were living on the same earth. | 他们生活在同一个地球。 |
| 369 | And by the modern environmentalist arguments, they had a better earth. | 通过现代环保主义的论点, 他们拥有了更好的地球。 |
| 370 | They had more to do things with, but yet they couldn't do anything. | 他们有很多事情要做,但他们却无能为力。 |
| 371 | They were not wealthy by any stretch of the imagination. | 他们不富裕 任何的想象力。 |
| 372 | And why? | 为什么? |
| 373 | It was because of knowledge. | 是因识故. |
| 374 | So life is not a zero sum game. | 所以生活不是零和游戏 |
| 375 | It's a positive sum game, but we are hardwired to think it's a zero sum game | 这是一个正和的游戏,但我们 很难认为这是一个零和的游戏 |
| 376 | because for millions of years or billions of years, there was no such thing as | 因为有数百万年或数十亿年 没有这样的事情 |
| 377 | wealth. | 财富。 |
| 378 | There was no such thing as persistent knowledge creation in the | 人类没有持续创造知识 |
| 379 | environment. | 环境。 |
| 380 | And so what you had was you just had a small amount of resources | 你拥有的只是少量的资源 |
| 381 | being divided up. | 被分开。 |
| 382 | And most of the games were status games, where it was which | 而大多数游戏都是状态游戏, 在那里它是什么 |
| 383 | monkey outranks which other monkey, and that decides which monkey gets to eat | 猴子的分数比其他猴子高 猴子的分数也比猴子高 |
| 384 | first. | 先说 |
| 385 | And we played that game for a billion years. | 我们玩了十亿年。 |
| 386 | So now we come on to a recent game where actually we can all eat and the big | 所以现在,我们开始一个最近的游戏 在那里,我们实际上可以 吃和大 |
| 387 | problem is obesity. | 问题是肥胖症 |
| 388 | It's no longer starvation. | 它不再饥饿。 |
| 389 | And the big problem is boredom. | 最大的问题是无聊 |
| 390 | It's not actually work. | 它实际上没有工作。 |
| 391 | There's enough work. | 功业已足. |
| 392 | So in this environment, | 所以在这个环境中, |
| 393 | switching your evolved mindset from a | 改变你进化的思维方式 |
| 394 | zero sum game to a positive sum game where we can all win if we create knowledge | 零和游戏到正和游戏,如果我们创造知识,我们都能够赢 |
| 395 | together. | 一起来 |
| 396 | And if we use the resources that we have to create more resources | 如果我们利用我们所需要的资源来创造更多的资源 |
| 397 | and more wealth, that's the game that we all need to be playing. | 更多的财富, 这就是我们都需要玩的游戏。 |
| 398 | Now, inequality is an issue and it's going to be a bigger issue because | 现在,不平等是一个问题,它将是一个更大的问题,因为 |
| 399 | technology creates leverage and leverage creates the gap between the haves and | 技术创造杠杆作用和杠杆作用,在拥有者与 |
| 400 | the have nots just by the nature of the choices they make and what they choose to | 不只是他们所做的选择的性质和选择 |
| 401 | do. | 说吧 |
| 402 | So that drives people into thinking that things are really unfair. | 因此,这促使人们 认为事情真的不公平。 |
| 403 | But the reality is the opportunities have never been more | 但现实是机会从未如此 |
| 404 | equal than now. | 等于现在。 |
| 405 | Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have the same iPhone you do. | 伊隆·穆斯克和杰夫·贝佐斯的iPhone和你一样 |
| 406 | They don't have some better version of an iPhone. | 他们没有更好的iPhone版本. |
| 407 | They're eating food that might be marginally better than yours, but it's basically | 他们吃的食物 可能比你的好一点点, 但它基本上 |
| 408 | the same. | 一样 |
| 409 | You might even have a better diet than them. | 你甚至可能吃得比他们好 |
| 410 | You probably have more time to go to the gym than them. | 你可能有更多的时间去健身房 比他们。 |
| 411 | They're not immortal and they're not going to be most likely not at this | 他们不是长生不老 而且他们不会最有可能不在这 |
| 412 | time scale. | 时间尺度。 |
| 413 | So you have more youth than them. | 你比他们年轻多了 |
| 414 | You have a lot of advantages over them. | 你比他们更有优势 |
| 415 | So the wealth gaps are actually much smaller than people think. | 所以财富差距实际上比人们想象的要小得多。 |
| 416 | And a lot of that is due to just mass production, which comes from | 大部分都是因为大规模生产 |
| 417 | specialization, labor and capitalism. | 专业、劳动和资本主义。 |
| 418 | But it's very easy to overlook that and agitate because that gets you higher in | 但很容易忽略它 和激动,因为这让你更高 |
| 419 | the status hierarchy with other monkeys because it makes you look like you're | 和其他猴子的地位等级 因为它让你看起来像你 |
| 420 | fighting for noble causes and gives you status, which is really what people are | 为崇高的事业而战, 并给你地位, 这是真正的人们是什么 |
| 421 | craving these days. | 渴望这些日子。 |
| 422 | They're craving status, not money or wealth. | 他们渴望的是地位,而不是金钱或财富. |
| 423 | And status is a zero sum game. | 而状态是零和游戏. |
| 424 | So it's kind of an evil game to play because there have to be losers for every | 所以玩这种游戏是邪恶的 因为每个游戏都要输 |
| 425 | winner. | 赢家 |
| 426 | And the only way to win is by crushing somebody else down. | 唯一能赢的就是把别人压垮 |
| 427 | AI is all the buzz in the world right now. | AI是现在世界上所有的响亮。 |
| 428 | And people are afraid that it might kill us all. | 人们害怕它会害死我们所有人 |
| 429 | And so they propose that we regulate the free exercise of mathematics, as you put | 因此,他们建议我们调节 数学的自由锻炼,就像你所说的 |
| 430 | it, and let the good guys ensure that the technology is used for the right purposes. | 让好人确保技术用于正确的目的 |
| 431 | Why do you think this is such a bad idea? | 你怎么觉得这是个坏主意? |
| 432 | First of all, I don't think we know how to make AGI. | 首先,我不认为我们知道 如何使AGI。 |
| 433 | I think what we have is natural language computing, which is a tremendous | 我认为我们拥有的是自然语言计算,这是巨大的 |
| 434 | breakthrough. | 突破。 |
| 435 | We can parse natural language | 我们可以分析自然语言 |
| 436 | data sets instead of us having to learn how to speak the computer's language, | 数据集 而不是我们不得不学习 如何说计算机的语言, |
| 437 | like Python or C. We can speak English. | 像Python或C。 我们可以说英语。 |
| 438 | The computer will speak English back to us. | 电脑会对我们说英语 |
| 439 | That's a tremendous innovation. | 这是一个巨大的创新。 |
| 440 | So let's not take away from AI. | 所以,让我们不要离开AI。 |
| 441 | AGI is a different thing. | AGI是一个不同的事物。 |
| 442 | AGI is something that is capable of creativity, which I haven't seen much | AGI是能够创造力的东西, 我没有看到太多 |
| 443 | evidence of. | 证据。 |
| 444 | And I don't mean creativity like taking a whole bunch of images and | 我不是说创造力 像拿一大堆图像和 |
| 445 | drawing a new image. | 绘制新图像。 |
| 446 | That's large data set interpolation, extrapolation, impressive, | 这是大数据集的内插 外推 令人印象深刻 |
| 447 | but not the same thing at all. | 但完全不一样 |
| 448 | Creativity is having a problem and solving it completely out of left field | 创意有问题,完全脱离了左翼 |
| 449 | and jumping huge boundaries, cutting through huge swaths of search space to | 跳过巨大的边界 穿过巨大的搜索空间 |
| 450 | find the correct answer and to test it and keep revising it. | 找到正确的答案,并测试和不断修订。 |
| 451 | I don't think the current batch of computing algorithms will get us there, | 我不认为现在一批的计算算法 能让我们到达那里, |
| 452 | although we're always one breakthrough away from the future, whether nuclear | 虽然我们总是一个突破 从未来,无论是核 |
| 453 | fusion or rocket tree or immortality or fighting viruses or computing. | 聚变或火箭树或永生或对抗病毒或计算. |
| 454 | Almost all the innovation of the last 50 years has come in the unregulated | 过去50年的革新几乎都是在不受管制的情况下实现的 |
| 455 | industries. | 工业。 |
| 456 | If you go to the regulated industries like health care, it's a | 如果你去管理行业 比如医疗保健,这是一个 |
| 457 | nightmare because there's just too many bureaucrats where they're saying no and | 噩梦,因为有太多的官僚 在那里他们说不和 |
| 458 | you can't actually do anything interesting. | 你无法做任何有趣的事 |
| 459 | So it's not a coincidence that most of the innovation has happened in the world of | 因此,大多数创新都发生在 |
| 460 | satellites versus atoms. | 卫星对原子。 |
| 461 | Peter Thiel lamented, you know, dude, where's my flying car? | 彼得,别这样 蒂尔哀叹,你知道,伙计, 我的飞行车呢? |
| 462 | Well, it's because you're not allowed to take a car and put it in the air because | 因为你不能坐车去空中 |
| 463 | it falls down, hurt somebody, God forbid. | 它掉下来 伤害别人 上帝保佑 |
| 464 | Nuclear nuclear power has been frozen and the human race has been deprived of | 核电被冻结,人类被剥夺 |
| 465 | cheap and free energy because we haven't been allowed to innovate on nuclear | 廉价和免费的能源 因为我们没有被允许 在核能创新 |
| 466 | power. | 权力。 |
| 467 | 我了解,我记得 I get it. | |
| 468 | It's nuclear weapons are scary, but it's a conflation in the monkey mind of the | 核武器是可怕的,但它是一个混杂 在猴子的头脑中 |
| 469 | two things. | 两件事 |
| 470 | Nuclear power doesn't necessarily need to lead to nuclear | 核电不一定需要导致核电 |
| 471 | weapons and don't necessarily go together, just like, you know, exploding a | 武器,而不一定去 一起,就像,你知道,爆炸 |
| 472 | fuel and a fuel air explosive is not the same thing as a gasoline engine. | 燃料和燃料的空气爆炸与汽油发动机不同。 |
| 473 | So we've been held back through regulations and most of the innovation that | 所以,我们被阻拦 通过规章和大部分创新 |
| 474 | we've seen in the last few decades has been on the Internet, in mobile computing | 我们在过去几十年里看到的 是互联网上,移动计算 |
| 475 | and software, has been AI, has been in cryptography and cryptocurrencies. | 和软件,一直是AI, 一直在加密和加密。 |
| 476 | What is the common thread between all of these things? | 所有这些事物之间有什么共同点? |
| 477 | It's all software. | 都是软件 |
| 478 | It's all in bits. | 皆以数为体. |
| 479 | What is software's thinking? | 软件在想什么? |
| 480 | It's speech, it's mathematics. | 是演讲,是数学 |
| 481 | So people who are trying to regulate AI out of this doomsday fear from having | 所以,那些试图管理AI的人... ... ...... |
| 482 | watched the Terminator movies one too many times, they're regulating the free | 看过"终结者"电影一次多, 他们管理自由 |
| 483 | exercise of mathematics. | 数学锻炼。 |
| 484 | This is completely innumerate people, which is the modern version of illiteracy, | 这完全是无数的人, 这是现代的文盲版本, |
| 485 | who literally do not know how anything works. | 谁根本不知道 事情是如何运作的。 |
| 486 | They don't know how the computer works. | 他们不知道电脑是怎么工作的 |
| 487 | They don't actually understand how, you know, they don't understand mathematics. | 他们不理解,你知道, 他们不理解数学。 |
| 488 | They're scared of it. | 他们害怕它。 |
| 489 | These are the same kids who were scared of math in high school. | 这些孩子都是高中时害怕数学的 |
| 490 | They're now writing regulations to prevent other kids from doing math that are | 他们现在正在写条例 防止其他孩子做数学 |
| 491 | actually going to make the human race better off. | 人类会变得更好 |
| 492 | If you limit computers, you have literally removed and computation, you've | 如果你限制计算机,你已经 字面删除和计算,你已经 |
| 493 | literally removed the last source of innovation that we have in our society. | 从字面上消除了我们社会上最后的创新来源。 |
| 494 | You're freezing us in place. | 你快冻死我们了 |
| 495 | Don't think you're going to make advances in biology or rocketry somehow | 别以为你在生物学和火箭学方面会有所进步 |
| 496 | magically while you've stopped the improvements in mathematics and computing. | 神奇的是你停止了数学和计算方面的改进。 |
| 497 | You've also fundamentally limited speech. | 你的发言也基本上是有限的 |
| 498 | So what are these, I'm sorry, this is the one place where I get worked up. | 所以,这是什么,我很抱歉, 这是一个地方,我感到兴奋。 |
| 499 | What are these idiots going to actually do? | 这些白痴到底要做什么? |
| 500 | Are they going to show up and say, you can't run this computation this many times. | 他们会不会出现 说,你不能运行 这个计算多次。 |
| 501 | You can't solve this math problem this many times. | 你无法解决这个数学问题 很多次。 |
| 502 | Well, all knowledge is connected to all of the knowledge. | 所有的知识都和所有的知识有关 |
| 503 | What if I come up with a different way to solve the same thing? | 如果我想出一个不同的方法来解决同样的事情呢? |
| 504 | What if I don't have to do matrix multiplication, but I do a different | 如果我不用做矩阵乘法, 但我做一个不同的 |
| 505 | transformation? | 变换? |
| 506 | Are you going to ban that too? | 你也要禁止吗? |
| 507 | Are you going to prevent me from doing it? | 你要阻止我这样做吗? |
| 508 | What about if there's a hundred of us doing it? | 如果有一百人这样做呢? |
| 509 | What if the Chinese are doing it and they're building an AI to power | 如果中国人这么做了 他们正在建立一个掌权的AI |
| 510 | their drone swarms? | 他们的无人机群? |
| 511 | What do you want us to do? | 你想我们怎么做? |
| 512 | Just get blown up by them? | 就被他们炸了? |
| 513 | No. | 没有 |
| 514 | So they always make an exception for the military. | 所以他们总是为军队破例 |
| 515 | So we end up in the worst of all possible worlds. | 因此,我们最终 在所有可能的世界中最糟糕。 |
| 516 | No private sector innovation is allowed. | 不允许私营部门创新。 |
| 517 | Human freedom is curtailed completely and oppressively. | 人类自由被完全和压迫地削减。 |
| 518 | You have to arrest people for doing mathematics, which is insane. | 你必须逮捕做数学的人 这太疯狂了 |
| 519 | You have to prevent new forms of mathematics from emerging. | 你必须防止新的数学形式出现. |
| 520 | Yet somehow you have to miraculously hope that your military sector will keep up, | 然而,不知何故,你不得不奇迹般地希望 你的军事部门会跟上, |
| 521 | even though it has no support from the private sector and they're mostly | 尽管它没有得到私营部门的支持 他们大多是 |
| 522 | incompetent building things themselves. | 无能造物自身. |
| 523 | And now you're competing head on against the Chinese and whoever else who you | 而现在你却在和中国人竞争 不管你是谁 |
| 524 | consider your enemies who are going to go full, full well into it. | 考虑你的敌人 谁是要去充分, 进入它。 |
| 525 | So to me, this is just innumerate people writing legislation. | 对我来说,这只是无数人 写立法。 |
| 526 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 527 | Anytime you add a regulation, it can be in any sector, you entrench an | 每当你增加一个规范, 它可以是在任何部门, |
| 528 | infinite amount of error because you cut off one path and you don't see that | 无限错误,因为你切断了一条路径,你看不到 |
| 529 | that path branches out as a tree and those branches keep on growing and keep | 径向树外,树枝不断生长 |
| 530 | on growing and that regulation weren't in place, could have led to. | 增长和监管 还没有到位, 可能导致。 |
| 531 | And that would possibly be maximal value creation because that's where all the | 这可能是最大的价值创造 因为这就是所有 |
| 532 | people are willingly spending their money. | 人们愿意花自己的钱。 |
| 533 | So once you cut off that path, you're basically... | 所以一旦你切断了那条路 你基本上... |
| 534 | You've stopped knowledge creation in that space, correct? | 你在那个空间停止了创造知识,对吧? |
| 535 | And, you know, to give an example, let's take the most horrific example. | 举个例子 让我们举个最可怕的例子 |
| 536 | What was the most horrific invention of the last hundred years? | 过去百年最可怕的发明是什么? |
| 537 | Probably nuclear, nuclear weaponry, nuclear power. | 可能是核武器 核武器 核电 |
| 538 | Well, the same group would have happily banned nuclear weaponry and nuclear | 那么,同一组人 将幸福地禁止核武器和核武器 |
| 539 | power, and they would have had a much better argument for doing so. | 他们有更好的理由这样做。 |
| 540 | And if that was, and if they had done that, we would all be speaking | 如果是这样,如果他们这样做了,我们都会说 |
| 541 | Russian or German right now. | 俄语或德语现在。 |
| 542 | People often talk about the good old days that never even happened. | 人们经常谈论过去从未发生过的美好时光. |
| 543 | And one of Spain's top ranked universities now has a master's | 西班牙排名最高的大学之一 现在有硕士学位 |
| 544 | degree in degrowth. | 脱增长度。 |
| 545 | And I wonder who's going to hire anyone with a degrowth degree. | 我想知道谁会雇用任何有脱产学位的人 |
| 546 | Even the people who want degrowth, right? | 即使是那些想减肥的人,对不对? |
| 547 | They aren't willing to start loss making businesses. | 他们不愿意开始亏损的生意 |
| 548 | They don't want feedback from free markets because nobody would hire them. | 他们不想从自由市场得到反馈 因为没人会雇用他们 |
| 549 | But they will get hired by academics, which is feedback from people. | 但是,他们会被学术界雇用,这是人们的反馈。 |
| 550 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 551 | Why do you think there's such a growing interest, an academic | 为什么你认为有如此 越来越浓厚的兴趣,一个学术 |
| 552 | growing interest in degrowth? | 越来越有兴趣去增长? |
| 553 | And maybe talk a bit about the fall of Western universities. | 也许可以谈谈西方大学的衰落。 |
| 554 | Well, you can look outside the window. | 好吧,你可以看窗外。 |
| 555 | It's perfect out here. | 这是完美的在这里。 |
| 556 | You know, it's beautiful and the quality of life is incredible for a student. | 你知道,这是美丽的, 生活质量令人难以置信的学生。 |
| 557 | They have no real responsibilities and they get fooled into thinking | 他们没有真正的责任 却被骗去思考 |
| 558 | that's how the entire world works. | 整个世界都是这么运作的 |
| 559 | But this is a controlled environment | 但是,这是一个控制的环境 |
| 560 | of low entropy and very high resources being pumped in from the outside, | 低 en和非常高的资源 从外部注入, |
| 561 | from the state, from their parents, from all kinds of wealth creation | 从国家, 从他们的父母, 从各种创造财富 |
| 562 | that was done outside that is coming into the university. | 在大学外完成的 |
| 563 | And it's an institution for knowledge, which is fantastic. | 它是一个知识的机构,这是惊人的。 |
| 564 | But it's not how the real world works. | 但真实世界的运行方式并非如此. |
| 565 | It's a small game inside the larger world. | 大世界内部的小游戏. |
| 566 | And I think they just lose sight of that. | 我认为他们只是忽略了这一点。 |
| 567 | So they just have too many resources and too little feedback from nature. | 因此,他们只是拥有太多的资源 和来自大自然的反馈太少。 |
| 568 | And so that's going to lead you to a lot of bad ideas. | 因此,这将引导你 很多坏的想法。 |
| 569 | And that's fine. | 没关系 |
| 570 | I mean, it's the nature of the university to come up with ideas, good and bad. | 我的意思是,这是大学的本性 提出想法,好坏。 |
| 571 | And then eventually they get tested in the real world. | 然后他们最终在现实世界中接受测试. |
| 572 | But when the bad ideas start eating the good ideas, that's when you have a problem. | 但是当坏的想法开始吃好的想法时,那就是你有一个问题的时候. |
| 573 | When the bad ideas start forbidding the good ideas, | 当坏的想法 开始禁止好的想法, |
| 574 | the whole concept of degrowth is nonsense. | 整个脱增长的概念是胡说八道的。 |
| 575 | Nobody actually engages in degrowth in their actual everyday life. | 没有人真正在日常生活中参与脱增长。 |
| 576 | Nobody lowers their standard of living. | 没有人会降低他们的生活水平。 |
| 577 | Nobody wants to be less fit. | 没有人想更适合。 |
| 578 | Nobody wants to be less healthy. | 没有人希望身体不健康。 |
| 579 | Nobody wants to be less knowledgeable. | 没人想少点知识 |
| 580 | Nobody wants less of anything. | 没有人会少点什么 |
| 581 | So the idea that society as a whole is going to go through degrowth is just | 所以整个社会要经历 脱增长的想法就是 |
| 582 | it's just suicide of a sort. | 只是自杀而已 |
| 583 | Now, these bad ideas, they basically get taxed on the good ideas. | 现在,这些不好的想法, 他们基本上对好的想法征税。 |
| 584 | But any society that degrowth itself will simply get outcompeted | 但任何自我衰退的社会 |
| 585 | by the societies that don't degrowth themselves. | 由不堕落的社会。 |
| 586 | And there are plenty of societies that are not going to degrowth themselves. | 有很多社会不会自我退化。 |
| 587 | You can go to rural India or rural China or anywhere in that part of the world | 你可以去印度农村或中国农村 或世界任何地方 |
| 588 | to see what degrowth society looks like. | 看看什么是脱增长社会的样子。 |
| 589 | It's the pre-growth society. | 是增长前的社会. |
| 590 | It's the same thing. | 亦复如是. |
| 591 | It's high infant mortality. | 这是婴儿的高死亡率。 |
| 592 | It's malnutrition. | 是营养不良 |
| 593 | It's lack of access to health care. | 即是无量众生无上菩提. |
| 594 | And again, it's the fundamental mistake of saying, oh, we're done. | 再说一遍,这是根本错误 说,哦,我们结束了。 |
| 595 | We figured everything out and we're going to stop here. | 我们想通了一切 然后就停在这里了 |
| 596 | And now we're just going to divide up the loot. | 而现在我们只是要分赃. |
| 597 | Complete nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 598 | Would you even go back 10 years in time and lose out on all the medicines | 10年之后,你会失去所有药品吗? |
| 599 | and all the computing and all the knowledge and all the travel | 和所有计算 和所有的知识 和所有的旅行 |
| 600 | that we have invented in the last 10 years? | 我们在过去十年里发明的? |
| 601 | Absolutely not. | 绝对不是。 |
| 602 | I wouldn't even go back to iPhone 14. | 我甚至不会回到iPhone 14。 |
| 603 | But maybe I'm an extreme case. | 但也许我是一个极端的情况。 |
| 604 | But everybody wants the latest and greatest of everything. | 但每个人都想要所有东西中最新的和最大的 |
| 605 | It completely flies in the face of degrowth. | 它完全飞向 面对退化。 |
| 606 | So degrowth might be fun at cocktail parties and, you know, | 所以在鸡尾酒派对上 脱增长可能很有趣 |
| 607 | impress people and make you sound like you're looking out | 给人留下深刻印象 让你听起来像在看 |
| 608 | for the future of the human race. | 为了人类的未来 |
| 609 | I don't know why. | 我不知道为什么。 |
| 610 | Maybe it's built into the human species and evolutionary context. | 也许它被构建在人类物种和进化背景下. |
| 611 | But there is a place for a person who says, stop, we're all going to die. | 但是,有一个地方的人 谁说,停下来,我们都要去死。 |
| 612 | Right. | 对 |
| 613 | And that's been around since, I think, the dawn of humanity. | 从人类的黎明开始就一直如此 |
| 614 | There's always been someone saying, stop, we're all going to die. | 总是有人说,停下来,我们都快死了。 |
| 615 | And we keep those people around because once in a while, they're right. | 我们把这些人留在身边 因为偶尔他们是对的 |
| 616 | It's like, OK, don't don't insult the king. | 这就像,OK, 不要侮辱国王。 |
| 617 | We're all going to die. | 我们都会死的 |
| 618 | Don't go over there and don't eat that bat. | 别过去吃那蝙蝠 |
| 619 | You know, we're going to we're all going to get a virus. | 你知道,我们要去 我们都要去得到一个病毒。 |
| 620 | Right. | 对 |
| 621 | So in some sense, they must have been correct | 所以从某种意义上说,他们一定是对的 |
| 622 | once upon a time because we keep them around. | 一次因为我们把他们留在身边。 |
| 623 | But at this point, it's almost become performative. | 但此时,它几乎变得具有表演性. |
| 624 | There are too many people around there, you know, carrying around those. | 周围的人太多了, 你知道,背着这些。 |
| 625 | The end is near signs. | 结局接近征兆. |
| 626 | Just now they say different things. | 刚才他们说不同的话 |
| 627 | It's like, you know, the world population collapse, running out of resources, | 这就像,你知道, 世界人口崩溃, 资源耗尽, |
| 628 | climate change, whatever. | 气候变化什么的。 |
| 629 | There's a bunch of them every generation. | 每代都有一大群人参. |
| 630 | And I think there's some small use to having those people around, | 我想让这些人来这有点小用 |
| 631 | because, yes, we there are things we could do that could kill us all. | 因为,是的,我们有 事情我们可以做 可能杀死我们所有人。 |
| 632 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 633 | I don't think we should be creating many | 我觉得我们不应该创造很多 |
| 634 | or should we be spreading nuclear weapons? | 还是应该扩散核武器? |
| 635 | And there's some common sense to that that we can agree on. | 也有一些常识,我们可以达成一致。 |
| 636 | But in general, I think the whole exercise has become performative. | 但是,总的来说,我认为整个练习已经变得具有表演性. |
| 637 | And the degrowth crowd is just a politically correct version of those. | 人口减少只是政治上正确的版本。 |
| 638 | You have a degrowth, I guess. | 我猜你已经脱产了 |
| 639 | COVID was a great example, right? | COVID是一个很好的例子,对不对? |
| 640 | If you were a proponent, if you are a proponent of degrowth, | 如果你是一个支持者, 如果你是一个支持脱产者, |
| 641 | you should be able to look back at COVID and say, see, this is what we need. | 你应该可以回顾COVID 说,这就是我们需要的。 |
| 642 | This is what this is like. | 就是这样 |
| 643 | We need COVID for the next, I don't know, 30 years until like 2050. | 接下来,我不知道,我们需要COVID 30年到2050年。 |
| 644 | And then we can go zero net carbon. | 然后我们可以去零净碳。 |
| 645 | Like it will be zero. | 感觉会是零 |
| 646 | Don't give don't give them any ideas. | 不要给他们任何想法。 |
| 647 | But but if if we were to actually reach zero carbon emissions, | 但如果我们真的能实现零碳排放 |
| 648 | I mean, in a linear fashion, maybe, you know, we can't predict the growth of knowledge. | 我的意思是,以线性的方式,也许,你知道,我们无法预测知识的增长。 |
| 649 | We don't know. | 我们不知道。 |
| 650 | Like, we we actually have like a much better technology tomorrow that, | 我们明天有更好的技术 |
| 651 | you know, captures all the carbon in the atmosphere. | 捕捉大气中所有的碳 |
| 652 | And we don't have to use carbon anymore. | 我们不用再用碳了。 |
| 653 | But obviously, that's like fantasy thinking. | 但很明显,这就像幻想思维。 |
| 654 | But if you actually wanted zero emissions, | 但如果你真的想要零排放的话 |
| 655 | you would have to have kind of like a COVID every year for the next. | 下一年你得有类似COVID的那种 |
| 656 | I mean, until the Paris. | 我是说,直到巴黎。 |
| 657 | COVID is a good example, because the question to a degrowth advocate, | COVID是一个很好的例子, 因为对于一个脱增长倡导者的问题, |
| 658 | they're all for downsizing, although it's never them first. | 他们都是为了减员, 虽然它从来没有他们先。 |
| 659 | You know, everybody else start downsizing. | 你知道,每个人都开始缩小规模。 |
| 660 | They're all for like stopping production. | 他们都喜欢停止生产。 |
| 661 | OK, how much health care you want to give up? | 好吧,你想要放弃多少保健? |
| 662 | Which health advances you want to give up? | 你想放弃什么健康进步? |
| 663 | You know, we've got a bunch of the labs right now. | 我们现在有一堆实验室 |
| 664 | Now it's overly regulated. | 现在管制过度了 |
| 665 | So it's very hard to make innovation in health care. | 因此很难在医疗方面做出创新. |
| 666 | But it still happens because it's such an important thing. | 但它仍然发生 因为它是如此重要的事情。 |
| 667 | Everybody wants to be healthy. | 每个人都想健康。 |
| 668 | Everybody wants to live longer. | 每个人都想活得更长 |
| 669 | So we grind on where it's great. | 所以,我们磨 在那里它是伟大的。 |
| 670 | What health care would you like to give up? | 你想放弃什么保健? |
| 671 | You know, none. | 没有 |
| 672 | They always want the maximal health care. | 他们总是想要最大的保健。 |
| 673 | Everybody wants the maximal health care. | 每个人都想要最大的保健。 |
| 674 | Nobody wants to be unhealthy. | 没人想不健康 |
| 675 | But that argument applies ad infinitum. | 但这一论点无穷无尽地适用。 |
| 676 | So I just view these as like, | 所以,我只是看这些 喜欢, |
| 677 | you know, small groups of misguided people | 一群被误导的人 |
| 678 | who will cause damage to their own societies. | 他们将对自己的社会造成损害。 |
| 679 | But India and China are not going to degrowth. | 但印度和中国不会减速。 |
| 680 | They're on the exact opposite trajectory. | 他们的轨道正好相反 |
| 681 | Maximum speed, you know, pedal to the metal. | 最快的速度,你知道,踏到金属。 |
| 682 | And when, you know, six billion humans are voting this way | 当,你知道,60亿人类 这样投票 |
| 683 | and you're over here, | 你在这里, |
| 684 | all your degrowth thing are your own life's prospects. | 你所有的脱胎换骨都是你自己的前途 |
| 685 | I would argue to the people who are getting degrees in degrowth, | 我向那些在脱产中 获得学位的人说 |
| 686 | it might make you feel good, | 它可能会让你感觉很好, |
| 687 | but your life is not going to land in a good place at the end of it. | 但你的生活不会在结束的时候 降落在一个好地方 |
| 688 | You will probably end up miserable and childless and poor. | 你可能最终会 悲惨,没有孩子和贫穷。 |
| 689 | And everybody else will just be getting richer and happier. | 其他人会越来越富有和快乐。 |
| 690 | So it's not a good fork. | 故不为善叉. |
| 691 | It's not too late. | 亦不迟. |
| 692 | Pick a different direction. | 选择不同的方向。 |
| 693 | That would be my advice. | 那是我的建议 |
| 694 | Yeah, I've been a doomer too at various times in my life. | 是啊,我是一个杜默器 也在我的生命的不同时间。 |
| 695 | So, you know, just error correct. | 所以,你知道,只是错误正确。 |
| 696 | Made a mistake. | 犯了个错误 |
| 697 | Happens. | 发生。 |
| 698 | Does that make you a bit more bullish on India and China | 这是否让你对印度和中国更加粗暴? |
| 699 | and some of these developing countries rather than | 和其中一些发展中国家,而不是 |
| 700 | also like the developing and developed countries? | 与发展中国家和发达国家一样? |
| 701 | It doesn't really work anymore. | 已经不起作用了 |
| 702 | Yeah, yeah. | 对 对 |
| 703 | And I mean, there are ways in which I go to Asia | 我的意思是,有一些方法,我去亚洲 |
| 704 | and it's far more developed than here in the UK. | 并且比英国更发达 |
| 705 | And there are times when I go to, you know, UK in the West | 有时候我要去英国西部 |
| 706 | and it's far more developed in Asia. | 并且在亚洲更发达。 |
| 707 | But so there are good ideas everywhere and there are bad ideas everywhere. | 但是,因此到处都有好的想法,到处都有坏的想法. |
| 708 | The the thing that I worry about is, | 我担心的是 |
| 709 | you know, the West is a uniquely open, free, liberal, | 你知道,西方是一个独特的开放, 自由,自由, |
| 710 | liberated, tolerant society with still good rule of law. | 解放,宽容的社会,仍然有良好的法治. |
| 711 | It's it's a very unique combination. | 这是一种非常独特的组合. |
| 712 | Like I love the American Bill of Rights, for example, you know, | 就像我喜欢美国权利法案, 比如,你知道, |
| 713 | freedom of speech, right to bear arms, right to not have surveillance | 言论自由、携带武器的权利、不受监视的权利 |
| 714 | and warrants and see, you know, all that stuff is slowly being nipped away | 并授权和看到,你知道, 所有的东西 慢慢地被吸走 |
| 715 | because the nature of power to take those things away. | 因为夺去这些东西的权力性质 |
| 716 | But the incredible amount of intellectual, physical | 但不可思议的智力 物理 |
| 717 | and real freedom that's available in the West, | 和真正的自由 在西方, |
| 718 | it's not really there in the rest of the world. | 它真的没有 在世界其他地区。 |
| 719 | Those ideas are spreading, but they're also being constrained. | 这些想法正在传播,但也受到了制约. |
| 720 | You know, most of the world basically does not live in free countries. | 你知道,世界上大多数地方 基本上不生活在自由国家。 |
| 721 | If you just kind of add up the sheer numbers, they're not free | 如果你把数字加起来,它们就不是免费的 |
| 722 | in the way that people in the West are. | 就像西方人一样 |
| 723 | And free doesn't mean freedom to, you know, live on the streets. | 自由并不意味着,你知道, 生活在街头的自由。 |
| 724 | Freedom is much more in the sense of human rights. | 自由在人权意义上更为重要。 |
| 725 | Human rights are taken much more seriously in the West. | 西方对人权的重视要大得多。 |
| 726 | And things like regulating the free exercise of mathematics | 诸如调节数学的自由锻炼 |
| 727 | is highly limiting human rights. | 人权受到严重限制。 |
| 728 | So that's why I don't think it's the cultures are not equivalent. | 因此,我不认为文化是等同的。 |
| 729 | You can't just swap one culture for another and say, yeah, they're equally good. | 你不能用一种文化换另一种文化 说,是的,它们同样是好的。 |
| 730 | That's, again, relativism and assumes that there's no progress made in knowledge. | 这也是相对论,并假设知识没有进步. |
| 731 | And there's progress made in all kinds of knowledge, including moral knowledge. | 并且各种知识,包括道德知识都有进步. |
| 732 | So, yeah, I don't I don't think they're the same. | 所以,是的,我不认为他们是相同的。 |
| 733 | And I don't think they're easily swappable. | 我觉得它们不容易互换 |
| 734 | I'm just saying, like, you're not going to stop India and China | 我只是说 你不能阻止印度和中国 |
| 735 | from doing what they're doing. | 从他们在做什么。 |
| 736 | And India and China is just shorthand for basically the rest of the world. | 印度和中国是世界其他地方的简称。 |
| 737 | But at the same time, I'm not saying that's I don't know. | 但与此同时,我不是说我不知道。 |
| 738 | I don't know which is a good outcome and what's not. | 我不知道什么是好结果什么不是。 |
| 739 | I just know that the freedoms and the rights that we have in the West | 我只知道西方的自由和权利 |
| 740 | get taken for granted. | 被当做理所当然。 |
| 741 | And if we lose them here, I'm not sure we get them elsewhere. | 如果我们在这里失去他们, 我不确定我们在哪里得到他们。 |
| 742 | Do you have any guesses for obviously the enlightenment happened, | 你有任何猜测 很明显的启蒙发生, |
| 743 | but do you have any guesses for what were the circumstances or the ideas | 你们对当时的情况和想法有何猜测? |
| 744 | that actually led to that kind of rebellion against authority | 这实际上导致了那种反抗当局的叛乱 |
| 745 | and against just worshipping knowledge instead of now criticizing knowledge | 而不是现在批评知识 |
| 746 | and seeking better explanations? | 并寻求更好的解释? |
| 747 | I think one common factor you see in the enlightenment, | 我认为一个常见的因素 你看到的启蒙, |
| 748 | the free thinking areas that we know about is a high degree of federalism. | 我们知道的自由思想领域 是一个高度的联邦主义。 |
| 749 | And that means like lots of small city states next to each other. | 这意味着许多小城邦相邻. |
| 750 | So, for example, ancient Greece, you had a lot of little city states | 比如古希腊,你有很多小城市 |
| 751 | in the era of the Enlightenment. | 在启蒙时代。 |
| 752 | You had a lot of little city states and small municipalities in Europe. | 你在欧洲有很多小城市和小城市 |
| 753 | And and there was also the age of exploration was going on. | 也出现了探索的年代。 |
| 754 | So people were very free to like go to different places. | 所以人们非常自由地喜欢去不同的地方。 |
| 755 | And what you generally find is like in those kinds of environments, | 你通常发现的就是那种环境 |
| 756 | people can sort of freedom shop, you know, they can go to the area | 人们可以去自由店 他们可以去那个地方 |
| 757 | that is most allowing them to be free. | 这是他们最自由的。 |
| 758 | And if that starts becoming oppressive, they can just go next door. | 如果这开始变得压迫, 他们可以只是隔壁。 |
| 759 | And it's culturally fairly similar and it's geographically not very far away. | 它在文化上是相当相似的, 在地理上并不遥远。 |
| 760 | But, yeah, all the smart people are now gathering here, right? | 但是,是的,所有的聪明人 现在聚集在这里,对不对? |
| 761 | All the free thinkers are now gathering over there. | 所有自由思想家现在都聚集在那里. |
| 762 | So it kind of gives them an escape valve from society, | 因此,这给他们一种 逃脱社会阀门, |
| 763 | not just from the government, but also from cultural regulations | 不仅来自政府 也来自文化条例 |
| 764 | or just from being, you know, too close to their family | 或仅仅是因为,你知道, 太接近他们的家庭 |
| 765 | and having to like work on the family farm, whatever it is. | 喜欢在家庭农场工作,不管是什么。 |
| 766 | High degree of mobility and or and self-organization | 高度流动和自我组织 |
| 767 | allows the people who want to push the boundaries forward to move around. | 允许那些想把边界推向前进的人移动。 |
| 768 | So I think that's been a common thing. | 所以我认为这是一件很常见的事。 |
| 769 | The US, for example, still is, but was much more federalist, | 例如,美国仍然如此,但联邦主义者却多得多, |
| 770 | where it used to matter much more which state you lived in | 以前你住的哪个状态很重要 |
| 771 | rather than the country itself. | 而不是国家本身。 |
| 772 | Now, the federal government has a lot of power and choose up a lot of the GDP. | 现在,联邦政府拥有很大的权力,并且选择了很多GDP. |
| 773 | So it does matter what the federal policies are. | 因此,这的确关系到联邦政策是什么。 |
| 774 | But you used to be able to shop policies state by state much more. | 但你以前更能按州购买政策 |
| 775 | And that allows people who want to innovate to say, OK, fine, | 这让那些想创新的人说,好吧,好吧, |
| 776 | I'm not going to do it in Wyoming. | 于华严不修行. |
| 777 | I'll do it in Texas. | 我会在德州做。 |
| 778 | Or I can't do it in Texas. | 或于德行无我行. |
| 779 | I'll do it in California. | 我会在加州做。 |
| 780 | I can't do it in California. | 我无法在加利福尼亚做到这一点。 |
| 781 | So I'll do it in New York. | 我将在纽约做。 |
| 782 | That's disappearing. | 那会消失的 |
| 783 | So but I think what's taking its place is the Internet | 但我认为它的位置是互联网 |
| 784 | combined with a new mobile generation that's coming up. | 与新一代的移动 即将出现。 |
| 785 | That's much more global, so-called sovereign individuals who | 这是更全球性的,所谓的主权个人 |
| 786 | although it's hard to do with family and culture, it's all fun and well, | 虽然这很难与家庭和文化有关, 但这一切都很有趣,很好, |
| 787 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}买飞机然后从空中生活 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}直到你成家为止 | |
| 788 | We were just talking about health care. | 我们只是在谈论保健。 |
| 789 | And you mentioned that no one wants less health care, | 你提到,没有人 想要减少保健, |
| 790 | no less health care than we have today. | 与今天相比,保健水平不亚于今天。 |
| 791 | Everyone wants to be healthy. | 每个人都想健康 |
| 792 | But some people really get riled up when you talk about extending lifespan | 但有些人在谈论延长寿命时 真的很生气 |
| 793 | as if we cannot exceed this certain natural limit, | 仿佛我们不能超过这个自然极限, |
| 794 | that a supernatural entity has missed out upon us. | 一个超自然实体错过了我们 |
| 795 | So what do you think that is? | 你觉得这是什么? |
| 796 | And do you try to convince people otherwise that that is evil? | 你是否试图说服别人 否则,这是邪恶的? |
| 797 | It's mostly a religious belief when you dig down to it. | 当你挖到它时,它大多是一种宗教信仰. |
| 798 | I mean, on the Internet, people say all kinds of crazy things. | 我的意思是,在互联网上, 人们说各种疯狂的事情。 |
| 799 | But if you sit down with a normal person over a normal dinner table | 但如果你和正常人坐在普通的餐桌上 |
| 800 | and they say and they express opposition to extend a lifespan, | 他们说,他们反对延长寿命, |
| 801 | first notice, nobody is opposed to extending health span. | 首先,没有人反对延长健康范围。 |
| 802 | Right. | 对 |
| 803 | So nobody is like, | 所以,没有人像, |
| 804 | hey, I've got a way to make you feel 10 years younger right now, right now. | 嘿,我有办法让你觉得现在更年轻10岁 |
| 805 | There is nobody who will say no to that, except maybe a 10 year old. | 没有人会说不,也许只有10岁。 |
| 806 | Anyone north of 10 will take the regression in their feeling. | 10点以北的任何人都会接受回落的感觉 |
| 807 | They want their body to be younger. | 他们希望身体更年轻。 |
| 808 | OK, great. | 好吧,伟大的。 |
| 809 | So everybody wants more health span. | 所以每个人都想要更多的健康跨度。 |
| 810 | Right. | 对 |
| 811 | And nobody wants to die right now while they're healthy. | 现在没有人愿意在他们健康的时候死去。 |
| 812 | So de facto, you know, if A then B, B then C, you believe in their mortality. | 所以事实上,你知道,如果A,B,C, 你相信他们的死亡。 |
| 813 | You want it to. | 你想让它。 |
| 814 | So really, it just boils down to a religious belief of it's unnatural. | 所以真的,它只是归结为 一种宗教信仰 它的不自然。 |
| 815 | And what they're doing is they're thinking one level higher to one. | 而他们正在做的是,他们思考一个级别到一个级别. |
| 816 | Are we are we killing the earth again? | 我们又要杀死地球了吗? |
| 817 | Does that mean there'll be too many of us? | 那表示我们的人会太多了吗? |
| 818 | And then, you know, too, does that what does that mean for society? | 你也知道 这对社会意味着什么? |
| 819 | And they kind of can't reason through all of that. | 他们无法解释这一切。 |
| 820 | Well, we got millions of times richer. | 我们有上百万倍的财富 |
| 821 | We already doubled our lifespan. | 我们已经把寿命翻了一番了 |
| 822 | The world didn't end. | 世间未尽. |
| 823 | Things got generally better because I know you wouldn't go back | 事情总的好起来,因为我知道你不会回去 |
| 824 | and be in the Paleolithic era and, you know, walking around with a club | 在旧石器时代 和俱乐部一起走来走去 |
| 825 | looking for dinner. | 寻找晚餐。 |
| 826 | So I think deep down, there are very few people who are actually opposed. | 因此,我认为在内心深处,很少有人真正反对。 |
| 827 | What they're opposed to is the idea that we're going to destroy the earth | 他们反对的就是我们要摧毁地球的想法 |
| 828 | or it's a religious belief that we're being extremely unnatural. | 或者是一种宗教信仰,认为我们是 极不自然的。 |
| 829 | And it's always a herd issue. | 而且它总是一个群的问题。 |
| 830 | It's it's it's never a I don't want to live healthier. | 是因为我从来就不想活得更健康 |
| 831 | It's that what if everybody else does? | 如果其他人都这样呢? |
| 832 | So it's kind of this amorphous fear. | 所以这是种无常的恐惧。 |
| 833 | But I think it's largely religious belief. | 但我认为这主要是宗教信仰。 |
| 834 | I think if you just start up and the way that so-called immortality | 我认为如果你只是开始 和那种所谓的永生的方式 |
| 835 | will arrive, if it arrives and, you know, if we're lucky enough | 如果到了,我们很幸运 |
| 836 | to see it, hopefully soon. | 希望很快就能见到 |
| 837 | But I don't know, a little skeptical there, too. | 但我不知道,那里也有点怀疑 |
| 838 | But the way it's going to come is through rejuvenation therapies. | 但未来的方式是通过复健疗法。 |
| 839 | It's going to come through. | 即能通达. |
| 840 | Oh, my 80 year old mom can, you know, her knees are better | 哦,我80岁的妈妈可以, 你知道,她的膝盖更好 |
| 841 | and now she can get off her wheelchair and walk around. | 现在她可以下轮椅走动了 |
| 842 | Well, no one's going to stop that. | 没人会阻止的 |
| 843 | You know, and if you're hurt, like, oh, my look at the lengths | 你知道,如果你受伤, 喜欢,哦,我看着长度 |
| 844 | people go to just to improve their skin, right, just to look younger, | 人们去改善他们的皮肤, 对,只是看起来年轻, |
| 845 | get rid of the wrinkles, you know, get your hair back, all those things. | 摆脱皱纹,你知道, 把你的头发回来,所有的东西。 |
| 846 | So everyone's going to go for that. | 所以,每个人都会去做到这一点。 |
| 847 | So everyone's going to improve their health span. | 因此,每个人都会 改善自己的健康范围。 |
| 848 | And then no one wants to die when they're healthy. | 然则人若健康,则不欲死矣. |
| 849 | No one's walking around healthy and fit and good looking | 没有人能健康、健康、漂亮 |
| 850 | and then suddenly drop dead. | 然后突然间就死了 |
| 851 | Well, we don't want that either. | 我们也不想这样 |
| 852 | So what's left? | 还有什么? |
| 853 | If I can make you younger and if I can stop you from dying | 如果我能让你年轻 如果我能阻止你死去 |
| 854 | when you're younger, then death is gone. | 当你年轻的时候 死亡就消失了 |
| 855 | Yeah, I often make the same kind of similar logical argument. | 是啊,我经常提出类似的逻辑论点。 |
| 856 | I say, like, if you are in perfectly good health | 如果你身体健康的话 |
| 857 | and I ask you the question, do you want to die tomorrow? | 我问你 明天你想死吗? |
| 858 | What would you say? | 你会说什么? |
| 859 | It's like, no, no. | 犹如无. |
| 860 | When do you think that answer will be? | 你觉得这答案是什么时候? |
| 861 | Yes, if you're in perfectly good health. | 是的,如果你身体健康的话。 |
| 862 | Right. | 对 |
| 863 | You're never going to say, oh, yeah, I want to die tomorrow. | 你永远不会说, 哦,是的,我想死明天。 |
| 864 | And you can always off yourself. | 你可以永远离开自己。 |
| 865 | So it's never about the self. | 故从不为自性. |
| 866 | It's always about this fretting and, | 它总是关于这个烦恼和, |
| 867 | you know, an anxiety about what happens to the world, | 你知道,一个焦虑 世界发生的事情, |
| 868 | what happens to the species, what happens to the race, | 物种会怎样, 种族会怎样, |
| 869 | what happens to the earth. | 如何是大地所现. |
| 870 | And we've discussed that a little bit. | 我们讨论过这一点。 |
| 871 | But I would also add that one of the things that you really learn | 但我也要补充,你真正学到的东西之一 |
| 872 | when you read Deutche's theories and you | 当你读杜奇的理论和你 |
| 873 | you authenticate them for yourself is you realize humans are universal | 你为你自己认证它们 就是你意识到人类是普遍的 |
| 874 | explainers. | 解说者. |
| 875 | What does that mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 876 | That means that everything that we know in the universe | 这意味着我们在宇宙中知道的一切 |
| 877 | follows the laws of physics and there's no reason to believe otherwise. | 遵循物理定律 没有理由相信其他的 |
| 878 | If you think otherwise, then please present your better theory | 如果你有其他想法,请提出更好的理论 |
| 879 | that explains the world. | 这解释了这个世界。 |
| 880 | If you can't do that, then you have to go with the laws of physics. | 如果你做不到,那你就得遵守物理定律 |
| 881 | Well, the laws of physics are completely computable. | 物理定律完全可以计算。 |
| 882 | What does that mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 883 | They can fit inside a Turing machine or computer | 它们可以装在图灵机或电脑里 |
| 884 | and a computer can simulate the laws of physics with arbitrary accuracy, | 计算机可以任意精确地模拟物理定律, |
| 885 | limited only by the specific power of that computer. | 仅受那台电脑特殊功率的限制 |
| 886 | And if you increase the power of that computer, | 如果你提高那台电脑的功率 |
| 887 | you can simulate them more accurately. | 你可以更准确地模拟它们。 |
| 888 | So humans already simulate in our minds. | 所以人类已经在我们的脑海中模拟了 |
| 889 | We simulate and through our computers, we simulate the weather, | 我们模拟和通过我们的计算机, 我们模拟天气, |
| 890 | we simulate quasars, we simulate, you know, even human systems. | 我们模拟类星体, 我们模拟,你知道,甚至人类系统。 |
| 891 | We simulate the economy. | 我们模拟经济。 |
| 892 | We simulate all kinds of things. | 我们模拟各种各样的东西。 |
| 893 | OK, so anything that can be understood, we can understand in our minds. | 好吧,所以任何可以理解的, 我们可以理解在我们的思想。 |
| 894 | This isn't the AGI people get wrong when they talk about super intelligence. | AGI的人在谈论超级智能时不会犯错 |
| 895 | There is nothing out there that can understand | 外面没有什么能理解的 |
| 896 | something fundamentally that we can understand. | 根本上我们可以理解的东西。 |
| 897 | It might be faster, it might have more compute, it might have more memory. | 它可能更快, 可能有更多的计算, 它可能有更多的记忆。 |
| 898 | But there's no concept that it can understand that we can ourselves understand. | 但没有任何概念可以理解我们自己能够理解. |
| 899 | So we are maximal universal explainers. | 因此,我们是最大限度的普遍解释者。 |
| 900 | And that means that every human is capable of unbounded creativity. | 这意味着每个人类都有能力无约束的创造力. |
| 901 | Anyone could be the next Einstein or Fermi or Elon Musk | 任何人都可能是下一个爱因斯坦、费米、伊隆穆斯克 |
| 902 | or, you know, Jeff Bezos or, you know, Jonas Salk or whatever. | 或者,你知道,杰夫・贝佐斯 或者,你知道,乔纳斯・萨尔克什么的。 |
| 903 | So we can create anything. | 所以我们可以创造任何东西。 |
| 904 | And if we can create anything, every human is a lottery ticket | 如果我们能创造任何东西,每个人都是彩票 |
| 905 | bet on the future of the species. | 赌种未来. |
| 906 | You have a great tweet where you say the modern secular religion | 你有一个伟大的推特,你在那里说 现代世俗宗教 |
| 907 | casts man as the devil and the state as the savior. | 把人当作恶魔 国家当作救世主 |
| 908 | This religion comes in various shapes and forms, | 这种宗教有不同的形态和形式, |
| 909 | but ultimately they all lead back to Marxism. | 但归根结底,它们都引向马克思主义。 |
| 910 | What do you think that is? | 你觉得这是什么? |
| 911 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 912 | I don't know if it's Marxism per se. | 我不知道是不是马克思主义本身. |
| 913 | I think there's a there's a struggle that's been going on | 我想有一场斗争一直在持续 |
| 914 | in the human species from the very beginning. | 人类从一开始 |
| 915 | There are many struggles, but this is one of the more interesting ones, | 有很多斗争,但这是最有趣的斗争之一 |
| 916 | which is between collectivism and the individual. | 它介于集体主义和个人之间。 |
| 917 | Right. | 对 |
| 918 | If we're all individuals, if we're all like closer to lions and tigers, | 如果我们都是个体, 如果我们都喜欢接近狮子和老虎, |
| 919 | for example, or even more solitary animals, | 例如,甚至更孤独的动物, |
| 920 | then, yeah, you have maximal freedom, | 那么,是的,你拥有最大的自由, |
| 921 | but you have no survivability for the species. | 但你没有生存能力 |
| 922 | In fact, humans, homo sapiens, I think you all know, | 事实上,人类,同性恋,我想你们都知道, |
| 923 | I've already talked about this in his book. | 我已经在他的书里说过了 |
| 924 | Humans are cooperators and we're cooperators across genetic boundaries. | 人类是合作者,我们是跨越基因边界的合作者。 |
| 925 | So you can have you can't have more Neanderthals | 这样你就不能再有尼安德特人了 |
| 926 | meet in the battlefield than are related to their by genes. | 在战场上相遇 与其基因有关 |
| 927 | So, you know, you can get to your uncles and cousins and go to war | 所以,你知道,你可以得到你的叔叔和表兄弟 去打仗 |
| 928 | and beat up the monkeys. | 并打猕猴. |
| 929 | But on the flip side, homo sapiens, | 但从侧面看,同性恋者 |
| 930 | you can have a hundred thousand of them, you know, in the battlefield | 你可以在战场上拥有十万个 |
| 931 | because they're all Christian or they're all Muslim or they're all Hindu. | 因为他们都是基督徒 或者是穆斯林 或者是印度教徒 |
| 932 | They have these shared belief system, these shared story systems. | 他们有这些共同的信仰体系, 这些共同的故事体系。 |
| 933 | So humans uniquely can cooperate across genetic boundaries. | 因此人类的独特性可以跨越基因边界进行合作. |
| 934 | Ants can't, bees can't. | 蚁不能,蜂不能. |
| 935 | And yeah, people always find like tiny, tiny little exceptions | 是啊,人们总是发现 像小,微小的例外 |
| 936 | like the pigeon on the wolf's back. | 就像狼背上的鸽子一样 |
| 937 | But these are just like, you know, silly little anecdotes. | 但这些只是,你知道,愚蠢的小传闻。 |
| 938 | They're not true in a broad scale. | 它们在广义上并不真实. |
| 939 | So humans have this ability to cooperate across genetic boundaries | 所以人类有这种跨基因边界合作的能力 |
| 940 | and that makes them very powerful. | 这使得他们非常强大。 |
| 941 | But at the same time, as we discussed earlier, that's for a form of group thing. | 但与此同时,正如我们早些时候讨论的, 这是一种团体形式的事情。 |
| 942 | That's like, we're going to go to war and destroy everyone. | 也就是说,我们要去打仗,消灭所有人. |
| 943 | I'm going to build this factory. | 我要建这个工厂。 |
| 944 | It's not for creativity and coming up with new ideas together necessarily. | 这不是为了创造力 和产生新的想法 必然在一起。 |
| 945 | All the markets are good for organizing that. | 所有市场都有利于组织这个。 |
| 946 | And this is something that, you know, high R&D institutions do well, | 高水平的研发机构也干得不错 |
| 947 | like, you know, Elon Musk and crew building Dragon for SpaceX or whatever. | 像,你知道,伊隆穆斯克和船员 建造龙为SpaceX或什么的。 |
| 948 | So in general, you have the cooperator theory of the world | 所以,总的来说,你有 合作者理论的世界 |
| 949 | or the collectivist theory of the world. | 或者世界集体主义理论 |
| 950 | They kind of go together. | 他们有点在一起。 |
| 951 | And then there's the individual free | 还有个人自由 |
| 952 | free freedom theory of the world or the great man theory of history, | 自由自由理论 世界或伟大的人类理论的历史, |
| 953 | you know, where you have and I didn't make that up. | 你知道,你在哪里,我没有编。 |
| 954 | They call it great man. | 他们称之为伟大的人。 |
| 955 | You can rename it if you want. | 欲改名可转名. |
| 956 | But, you know, it's like Einstein and, you know, Feynman or Caesar, | 但是,你知道,这就像爱因斯坦和, 你知道,费曼或凯撒, |
| 957 | like these these individuals took acts that then fork history. | 这些人的行为 和历史一样 |
| 958 | And if they hadn't come along, would it have happened? | 如果他们不一起来 会发生吗? |
| 959 | So the debate is like if Napoleon hadn't come along, | 所以辩论就像如果拿破仑没来, |
| 960 | would there have been another Napoleon or someone with a different name? | 会不会有另一个拿破仑 或者另一个名字的人? |
| 961 | If Elon Musk hadn't come up, | 如果伊隆·穆斯克没来 |
| 962 | Einstein, the answer is usually yes, but a different timing | 爱因斯坦 答案通常是肯定的 但时间不同 |
| 963 | and the details would have been different. | 细节会有所不同 |
| 964 | And it's a collection of individuals that makes history anyway. | 它是一个个人的集合 创造了历史。 |
| 965 | So it's kind of this instinct of collectivism versus individuality. | 这就是集体主义和个体主义的本能。 |
| 966 | So what is collectivism? | 那么,什么是集体主义? |
| 967 | Collectivism is inherently millenarian. | 集体主义本质上是千兆论. |
| 968 | It's inherently religious in nature. | 本质上是宗教性的. |
| 969 | It kind of says we're all headed towards unity. | 可以说我们正走向统一 |
| 970 | We're all going to be one thing. | 我们都会成为一件事 |
| 971 | We're going to go from being unicellular organisms | 我们要从独生生物出发 |
| 972 | and multicellular organisms to being a civilization, | 和多细胞生物 成为一个文明, |
| 973 | a multicellular organism that marches, you know, together. | 一个多细胞的有机体 一起行进 |
| 974 | And in its best vision, it's like, you know, humanity becomes a god | 在其最好的愿景, 它就像,你知道, 人性变成神 |
| 975 | and we're all cells in a giant nervous system of the brain | 我们都是大脑中巨大的神经系统的细胞 |
| 976 | of this new entity that we're going to create. | 我们将要创建的新实体 |
| 977 | Maybe AGI unites us all. | 也许AGI能把我们都团结起来 |
| 978 | In the hell version is the Borg. | 在地狱版本是博格人. |
| 979 | You know, we're all just like a big fungus and we're all the same. | 你知道,我们就像一个大真菌 我们都是一样的。 |
| 980 | We're all just eating everything and there's no differentiation. | 我们都在吃东西,没有区别 |
| 981 | So this is just a struggle that goes on back and forth. | 因此,这只是一场前后争斗。 |
| 982 | And so Marxism is just an example of this. | 所以马克思主义只是这方面的一个例子. |
| 983 | I don't think anybody would want to live in a completely | 我觉得没有人会想 生活在一个完全 |
| 984 | individualist society. | 个人主义社会。 |
| 985 | That would be Mad Max. | 那会是疯狂的麦克斯。 |
| 986 | OK. | 摆 |
| 987 | But I don't think anybody wants to live in a collectivist society either. | 但我不认为有人想 生活在集体主义社会。 |
| 988 | That's the Borgs. | 这是博格人。 |
| 989 | That's the struggle you have. | 这就是你的斗争。 |
| 990 | And with the new religion, you know, the religion is about uniting the masses. | 而随着新的宗教,你知道, 宗教是关于团结大众。 |
| 991 | Religion is about bringing people together with some higher vision. | 宗教是用某种更高的眼光把人们聚集在一起。 |
| 992 | And it used to be about God. | 而昔为神. |
| 993 | You know, there's a and they're different versions. | 你知道,有一个,它们有不同的版本。 |
| 994 | But let's go with the Western version for a moment. | 但以西方版本为一时. |
| 995 | There's there's there's usually a white male in the sky. | 通常天上有白雄鸟. |
| 996 | Surprise who's telling you how to do things. | 惊喜谁教你做事. |
| 997 | And they have a set of rules supposed to follow these rules. | 他们有一套规则应该遵循这些规则。 |
| 998 | If you don't, you're going to get hurt in the next life. | 若不尔者,来世必伤. |
| 999 | And if you do, then you'll get rewarded in the next life. | 如果你这样做,那么你将在来世得到奖励. |
| 1000 | And a lot of people still believe that. | 很多人仍然相信这一点。 |
| 1001 | And, you know, it's fine. | 而且,你知道,这是罚款。 |
| 1002 | Religion is a cooperating system for humans. | 宗教是人类的合作体系. |
| 1003 | So, you know, it's good to be around certain certain doses. | 所以,你知道,这是很好的 在一定剂量左右。 |
| 1004 | But I think a lot of people when science came along, | 但我认为很多人 当科学出现, |
| 1005 | Nietzsche famously declared God is dead. | 尼采著名的宣称神已死. |
| 1006 | And why do you say that? | 你为什么这么说? |
| 1007 | Because once you took Newton and the Enlightenment scientists seriously, | 因为一旦你认真对待牛顿和启蒙科学家 |
| 1008 | you realize, well, maybe there isn't a guy in a white robe. | 你知道,也许没有穿白色长袍的人 |
| 1009 | Maybe that's a little too literal. | 也许这太过分了 |
| 1010 | Maybe there's something else. | 也许还有别的事 |
| 1011 | Maybe there's something less. | 或有少处. |
| 1012 | So I think since then, humanity has been searching for an organizing principle. | 因此我认为,从那时起,人类一直在寻求组织原则。 |
| 1013 | And it's hard to argue that all there is is just this reality of mind and body. | 亦难辩一切如来真实身心. |
| 1014 | Yes, science is great. | 是的,科学是伟大的。 |
| 1015 | It lets us navigate the world, lets us predict future outcomes, | 它可以让我们环游世界, 让我们预测未来的结果, |
| 1016 | lets us build technology. | 让我们建立技术。 |
| 1017 | But the fundamental mystery of existence, of consciousness. | 但根本的神秘存在,意识。 |
| 1018 | Why am I even here? | 我怎么会在这里? |
| 1019 | How did I get here? | 我怎么来的? |
| 1020 | Who the heck am I really? | 我到底是谁? |
| 1021 | You know, what happens when I die? | 我死后会怎样? |
| 1022 | Those questions science has not made much progress on. | 这些问题科学没有取得多大进展。 |
| 1023 | It does not answer. | 它没有回答。 |
| 1024 | So there is always going to be a religious impulse. | 因此,总会有宗教冲动。 |
| 1025 | So and I think it's I think it's baked into the human species. | 所以,我认为它是烤成人类的。 |
| 1026 | It's hardwired into us at some level. | 它在某种程度上与我们紧密相连。 |
| 1027 | And so that religious impulse will always be answered. | 这样宗教冲动就会永远得到回应. |
| 1028 | There will always be a religion, whether you care to call it that or not. | 总会有宗教的 无论你是否愿意这样称呼它 |
| 1029 | So and I think the founders of the United States | 所以,我认为美国的创始人 |
| 1030 | very intelligently separated church and state. | 非常聪明的分离 教会和州。 |
| 1031 | They said, you know, you shall not make any official state religion. | 他们说,你知道,你不应该 任何官方的国教。 |
| 1032 | You won't abridge the exercise of any religion | 任何宗教的锻炼你都不会罢休 |
| 1033 | because they knew that this impulse was always going to be around | 因为他们知道这种冲动 总是在周围 |
| 1034 | and people had to be free to express it. | 人们必须自由表达 |
| 1035 | But the state should not mandate it. | 但国家不应该授权它。 |
| 1036 | Well, now we do have a state mandated religion, | 现在我们有国家授权的宗教 |
| 1037 | which is you just remove God from the equation | 这就是你把上帝从方程式中移除 |
| 1038 | and it doesn't look like religion anymore. | 和它不再看起来像 宗教了。 |
| 1039 | But it still has the same characteristics. | 但它仍然具有相同的特征. |
| 1040 | OK, so, you know, if you are, for example, an enlightened atheist, | 好吧,所以,你知道, 如果你是一个开明的无神论者, |
| 1041 | you don't believe in God and you don't believe in hell | 你不相信上帝,你不相信地狱 |
| 1042 | and you don't believe in heaven, you don't believe in afterlife. | 而不信天,不信后世. |
| 1043 | Well, what's left? | 还有什么? |
| 1044 | Well, you could still have a vision of a perfect world, a utopia. | 嗯,你还可以有一个理想 一个完美的世界,一个乌托邦。 |
| 1045 | That's heaven. | 这是天堂。 |
| 1046 | So you could say, oh, well, you know, if the world was like a like a paradise, | 所以,你可以说,哦,嗯, 你知道,如果世界 像天堂, |
| 1047 | it was like a natural paradise garden of Eden, right? | 就像伊甸园的天然天堂花园,对吧? |
| 1048 | Everything is perfect until a man comes along and he ruins everything. | 一切都是完美的,直到一个男人来了, 他毁了一切。 |
| 1049 | So man is a sinner who is destroying the world. | 故人是罪人,正毁灭世界. |
| 1050 | Gaia would be just fine if it weren't for these evil humans. | 如果不是这些邪恶的人类 盖亚会很好 |
| 1051 | So you have the sinner. | 所以你有罪人。 |
| 1052 | You have you have the devil, which is mankind. | 你有魔鬼,这就是人类。 |
| 1053 | You have the you have the perfect heaven, | 你拥有完美的天堂, |
| 1054 | which is the utopia that you want to create. | 这是你们要创造的乌托邦。 |
| 1055 | You have the hell, which is what man is leading you towards right now, | 你有地狱, 这就是男人正在引导你 现在, |
| 1056 | the technological hell of capitalism and progress. | 技术地狱 资本主义和进步。 |
| 1057 | And then who's the savior? | 然后谁是救世主? |
| 1058 | Well, eventually somebody has to save the day. | 最终 总得有人来拯救今天 |
| 1059 | So it's going to be you and your merry band of friends | 所以,这将是你和你的快乐的朋友乐队 |
| 1060 | weaponizing the state against individuals. | 把国家武装起来对付个人 |
| 1061 | So I think that's the current religion that's going on. | 所以,我想这就是现在的宗教。 |
| 1062 | It goes by various names, wokeism, identity, Marxism, | 它通过各种名称,觉醒主义,身份,马克思主义, |
| 1063 | just hide sometimes cause of liberal. | 只是躲起来有时 自由主义的原因。 |
| 1064 | It has to be a shadow religion. | 得是阴教. |
| 1065 | It can't actually let itself be named because if it is named as a religion, | 它实际上不能让自己被命名 因为如果它被命名为一个宗教, |
| 1066 | then it's actually forbidden by the constitution | 宪法实际上禁止 |
| 1067 | of the government from engaging in it. | 让政府不再介入 |
| 1068 | But it's very cleverly disguised. | 但它非常巧妙的伪装。 |
| 1069 | But I think it's a collectivist impulse and it will always reassert itself. | 但我认为这是一个集体主义的冲动,它会永远重新振作起来. |
| 1070 | And again, if you don't have that, you a brutal society. | 再说一次,如果你没有这个, 你是一个残酷的社会。 |
| 1071 | So you have to have some variation of it. | 所以,你必须有一些变化 它。 |
| 1072 | But at the same time, if it takes over the whole thing, | 但与此同时,如果它接管了整个事情, |
| 1073 | it's a that ate the host and the whole thing is a fungus. | 它会吃掉宿主 整个东西都是真菌 |
| 1074 | Obviously, traditionally, religions put man at the center of things. | 显然,传统上,宗教将人置于事物的中心。 |
| 1075 | And then science came along and said, oh, actually, | 然后科学来了 说,哦,其实, |
| 1076 | you were just descended from the apes. | 你只是从猿人身上掉下来的 |
| 1077 | And you're not even at the center of the universe | 你甚至没有在宇宙的中心 |
| 1078 | nor the center of the solar system. | 也不是太阳系的中心 |
| 1079 | Right. | 对 |
| 1080 | There's this whole big universe that | 有一个大宇宙 |
| 1081 | most of which, like so far away, we might never be able to explore. | 大部分,像那么远, 我们可能永远无法探索。 |
| 1082 | And so you're just like chemical scum. | 所以你就像化学渣滓 |
| 1083 | This is one of Deutsch's greatest refutations and insights, | 这是德国最伟大的反驳和见解之一, |
| 1084 | which is he shows how humans by being universal explainers | 他通过做普世解释家来展示人类 |
| 1085 | were not just like smarter monkeys. | 不只是像聪明的猴子。 |
| 1086 | Monkeys are not capable of encoding much knowledge | 猴子没有能力编码很多知识 |
| 1087 | outside of what's in their genes. | 除了他们的基因 |
| 1088 | Humans are capable of anything, anything that can be imagined. | 人类有能力做任何事 任何可以想象的东西 |
| 1089 | We can imagine anything that any intellectual thing can | 我们能想象任何知识分子可以 |
| 1090 | believe or do or deduce. | 相信或做 或推断。 |
| 1091 | We can. | 我们可以。 |
| 1092 | And so humans are just qualitatively different where that classic | 所以,人类只是质的不同 在经典的地方 |
| 1093 | figure of like the, you know, the walk, the crawling to the sorry, | 就像,你知道, 散步,爬到 对不起, |
| 1094 | the tadpoles to the fish, to the, you know, to the toad, | 蛤蟆对鱼, 蛤蟆, |
| 1095 | to the walking monkey, to the taller and taller monkey, to the gorilla human. | 对行走的猴子, 对高高的猴子, 对大猩猩人类。 |
| 1096 | That is completely false. | 这是完全错误的。 |
| 1097 | If you have seen that, you need to unbrainwash yourself. | 如果你已经看到, 你需要洗脑自己。 |
| 1098 | That is not true. | 事实并非如此。 |
| 1099 | Humans are universal explainers. | 人类是普世的解释者. |
| 1100 | You know, we can create rockets. | 我们可以制造火箭 |
| 1101 | There is no amount of evolution that is going to get a monkey to create a rocket. | 没有什么进化量 会让猴子制造火箭。 |
| 1102 | That is going to that's right. | 这是正确的。 |
| 1103 | There's no short of it becoming a universal explainer like us. | 成为像我们这样的普世解释家,是无可避免的. |
| 1104 | No, no number of tadpoles getting together are going to create a rocket | 不,没有多少小人物会聚在一起 制造火箭 |
| 1105 | and launch off to the stars. | 然后向星宿发射。 |
| 1106 | Knowledge is unique output of human creativity. | 知识是人类创造力的独特产出. |
| 1107 | And then when you look at what's going on with creativity, | 然后当你看 与创造力发生了什么, |
| 1108 | creativity is unbounded. | 创造力是无限的。 |
| 1109 | So we have moved evolution from the physical to the mimetic domain. | 因此,我们已经把进化从物理领域转移到模拟领域。 |
| 1110 | And it is the most powerful thing in the known universe. | 这是已知宇宙中最强大的东西 |
| 1111 | If you were to look at all the stars, the telescope in the night sky, | 如果你看着所有的恒星 夜空中的望远镜 |
| 1112 | and you would find that they would be different, | 你将发现他们是不同的, |
| 1113 | but they would be different within certain physical parameters. | 但它们在某些物理参数内是不同的。 |
| 1114 | If, on the other hand, you get to a certain one and it's got, | 如果,另一方面,你得到 一个特定的,它得到了, |
| 1115 | you know, you see an asteroid heading towards it. | 你知道,你看到一个小行星朝它去了。 |
| 1116 | And this is David's example, not mine. | 这是大卫的榜样 不是我的 |
| 1117 | And the asteroid gets deflected at the last second with an explosion like, whoa, | 而小行星在最后一秒 与爆炸一样,哇, |
| 1118 | there's something going on there that's fundamentally different. | 里面发生了一些根本不同的事情。 |
| 1119 | And it means that there's creative knowledge there. | 这意味着那里有创意知识。 |
| 1120 | There's life there. | 那边有生活 |
| 1121 | There's intelligent life there. | 那边有智慧生活 |
| 1122 | And intelligence changes everything because knowledge can be perfectly replicated. | 而智能会改变一切 因为知识可以完全复制。 |
| 1123 | You could you could take the knowledge of how to terraform a planet | 你可以学着如何塑造一个星球 |
| 1124 | if you had it and you could beam it to another planet. | 如果你有它,你可以把它束到另一个星球。 |
| 1125 | And then a hundred years later, you could see that world is terraformed. | 一百年后,你可以看到世界变了。 |
| 1126 | It's changed. | 变了 |
| 1127 | So it could be a copy. | 所以可能是一份副本。 |
| 1128 | It could be its own version. | 它可能是自己的版本。 |
| 1129 | But knowledge is so powerful that it can completely change the environment. | 但知识是如此强大,可以彻底改变环境. |
| 1130 | And you can look and just see how humans have changed the earth to see that. | 你可以看到人类是如何改变地球的 来看到这一点的。 |
| 1131 | Just recently, I think David was telling me this today, actually, | 就在最近,我想大卫今天告诉我,其实, |
| 1132 | where he said that he read that the the | 他说,他读到 |
| 1133 | mass of things produced by humans for the first time has like | 人类第一次生产的东西质量 |
| 1134 | passed the mass of things created by other things in the biosphere. | 超越了生物圈中其他事物创造的事物的质量。 |
| 1135 | I don't know exactly what he meant by that. | 我不知道他到底在说什么 |
| 1136 | But it just it's just that you cannot explain the earth | 但只是你无法解释地球 |
| 1137 | without first understanding humans, any alien species that arrives on Earth. | 没有首先了解人类,任何外来物种到达地球。 |
| 1138 | The first thing they're going to be interested in is humans. | 他们首先要感兴趣的是人类. |
| 1139 | You cannot explain anything else about this earth. | 你不能解释 关于这个地球的任何事情。 |
| 1140 | Everything else would go to the sidelines. | 其它一切都会变成场外的 |
| 1141 | They would not be interested in the in the geological crust or the weather patterns | 他们不会对地质地壳或天气模式感兴趣 |
| 1142 | or the the structure of the environment, because they would say, | 或环境的结构,因为他们会说, |
| 1143 | well, I can figure that out by looking at any other planet. | 好吧,我可以通过观察其他星球来了解这一点。 |
| 1144 | But these humans, that's causing huge change. | 但是这些人类, 这引起了巨大的变化。 |
| 1145 | And the moment we leave this planet, we can multi planetary species | 一旦我们离开这个星球,我们就可以多物种 |
| 1146 | that will be more obvious. | 那会更明显 |
| 1147 | But you can no longer explain the universe without explaining humans | 但你再也不能解释宇宙了 不解释人类 |
| 1148 | because we are creative entities. | 因为我们是创意实体 |
| 1149 | Not to say that there might not be other creative entities on other planets. | 而不是说其他星球上可能没有其他的创意实体. |
| 1150 | There probably are just by the law of large numbers. | 可能只是根据大量的法律。 |
| 1151 | But without explaining intelligence and knowledge and creativity, | 但是,不解释 智能和知识与创造力, |
| 1152 | you cannot explain the universe anymore. | 你不能再解释宇宙了 |
| 1153 | So it's kind of a nice little full circle where we went from being | 所以这是个不错的小圆圈 我们从这里出发 |
| 1154 | the center of the universe to being infinitesimal and unimportant | 宇宙的中心是无穷无尽和不重要的 |
| 1155 | in the universe to basically actually saying, well, actually, | 在宇宙中 基本上说,其实, |
| 1156 | through the knowledge that we create and the progress that we make, | 通过我们创造的知识 和我们取得的进展, |
| 1157 | we are actually incredibly important in a very large universe. | 在一个巨大的宇宙中,我们实际上非常重要。 |
| 1158 | Have you applied Popper and Deutsch's epistemology | 你应用过波普和德许的认知 |
| 1159 | or any of their vast implications in your own life? | 或他们在你自己的生活中有什么影响? |
| 1160 | The epistemology is really helpful because it helps you figure out | 认识学很有帮助 因为它能帮助你搞清楚 |
| 1161 | what's true and what's not. | 何谓真与非真. |
| 1162 | So there are a lot of authors that I used to read | 所以有很多作者 我过去读过 |
| 1163 | where I would sort of absorb what they said. | 在那里我会吸收他们说的话 |
| 1164 | And now I realize a lot of that is nonsense. | 现在,我意识到很多 这是胡说八道。 |
| 1165 | Simple example is Guns, Germs and Steel, you know, where he has the real | 很简单的例子是枪, 格姆斯和钢铁, 你知道,他在那里有真正的 |
| 1166 | Jared Diamond has a beautiful explanation of, you know, | 贾里德·戴蒙德有个很好的解释 |
| 1167 | why certain cultures evolve and others didn't. | 为什么某些文化会进化 而另一些文化则不会进化 |
| 1168 | He's like, well, Europe is horizontal and the Americans in Africa are vertical. | 他喜欢,嗯,欧洲是横向的, 非洲的美国人是纵向的。 |
| 1169 | And when you're vertical, then the latitude changes, | 当你是垂直的, 然后纬度变化, |
| 1170 | change temperatures or technologies like food production | 改变温度或粮食生产等技术 |
| 1171 | and domestication of animals don't transfer. | 动物的驯化不会转移 |
| 1172 | And so you're just your technology is very narrow. | 所以,你只是你的技术非常狭窄。 |
| 1173 | Whereas in Europe, the technology applies across the board | 在欧洲,这种技术是普遍适用的 |
| 1174 | so you can develop much faster. | 这样你就可以更快地发展。 |
| 1175 | And that's why they took over the world. | 所以他们占领了世界 |
| 1176 | It's a neat little explanation. | 这是一个清晰的小解释。 |
| 1177 | It turns out to be maybe there's some truth to it, | 事实证明,也许有 一些真理, |
| 1178 | but it also turns out to be mostly false because even a small amount | 但结果也大多是虚假的 因为即使是少量 |
| 1179 | of creativity or a small amount of error correction | 或少量错误更正 |
| 1180 | will quickly break you out of that trap. | 会很快把你从陷阱里救出来 |
| 1181 | So you realize that the dominant thing that's important | 所以,你意识到, 占支配地位的事物 这很重要 |
| 1182 | is knowledge creation and then error correction | 是知识创建, 然后更正错误 |
| 1183 | to get better and better knowledge creation and geographic | 创造更好的知识和地理环境 |
| 1184 | and resource factors don't apply that much. | 资源因素没有那么重要 |
| 1185 | Yes, resources matter. | 是的,资源很重要。 |
| 1186 | But there are areas of the world that are better | 但世界上有些地方比较好 |
| 1187 | resource in the areas of the world that where we first developed | 我们最初开发的世界上 |
| 1188 | the technologies that now the entire world relies upon. | 全世界现在所依赖的技术。 |
| 1189 | So creativity is so much more the dominating force to pay attention to. | 所以创造力更是主导力量 来关注。 |
| 1190 | That's an easy example. | 这是一个简单的例子。 |
| 1191 | It helps you get over the we're running out of resources argument | 它能帮助你渡过我们资源耗尽的争论 |
| 1192 | or that wealth creation is evil or let's be pessimistic | 或者财富的创造是邪恶的 或者让我们悲观 |
| 1193 | because we're all going to kill ourselves or there are too many humans. | 因为我们都要自杀 或有太多的人。 |
| 1194 | It's kind of all these anti-natalist, anti-human, anti-people arguments. | 这是一种所有这些反产主义者,反人类,反人民的论点. |
| 1195 | So I think in that sense, the epistemology useful at a base level, | 因此,我认为从这个意义上来说, 流行病学在基础水平上有用, |
| 1196 | you're always trying to figure out what's true. | 你总是想找出真相 |
| 1197 | And so Popper had the concept of falsifiability, which is very important. | 所以波普有易腐性的概念, 这是非常重要的。 |
| 1198 | Like if I make a statement that can't be disproven, | 就像我做一个不能否认的陈述, |
| 1199 | it's kind of a meaningless statement. | 这是一种毫无意义的声明。 |
| 1200 | For example, we're living in a simulation. | 例如,我们生活在模拟中。 |
| 1201 | Well, how would you disprove it? | 那你怎么反驳呢? |
| 1202 | Anything you do, I'll just say, well, that's in the simulation. | 无论你做什么,我只说,好了,那是在模拟。 |
| 1203 | That's part of the simulation. | 这是模拟的一部分。 |
| 1204 | So it's an unfalsifiable statement, which means it's just religion. | 故此说法不可说佛剎微尘数佛剎微尘数佛剎微尘数菩萨. |
| 1205 | It's just a nonsense statement. | 这只是个无稽之谈 |
| 1206 | Or the free will argument is another nonsense argument. | 或者自由意志争论是另一个荒谬的争论. |
| 1207 | So it helps you not waste time on those because they're non falsifiable. | 所以它帮助你不要浪费时间 因为这些是不可伪造的。 |
| 1208 | Secondly, Deutsch added the additional criteria, | 第二,德国增加了附加标准, |
| 1209 | which I think is a very good one, saying that a good theory is hard to vary, | 我认为这是一个非常好的, 说一个好的理论很难改变, |
| 1210 | which means you can't change the details of the theory | 这意味着你无法改变理论的细节 |
| 1211 | without changing the outputs. | 而不改变产出。 |
| 1212 | You can't just move the goalposts afterwards. | 之后不能随便移动门柱 |
| 1213 | So, for example, the example he gives in one of his books is, | 例如,他在一本书中举出的例子就是, |
| 1214 | you know, why do we have seasons? | 你知道,为什么我们有季节? |
| 1215 | So there's the old Greek theory, mythology theory. | 因此有古希腊理论,神话理论. |
| 1216 | Well, it's because Persephone got kidnapped by Hades | 因为珀耳塞福涅被哈迪斯绑架了 |
| 1217 | and when she came out, like spring came out and so on. | 当她出来的时候,就像春天出来一样 |
| 1218 | Well, that one is really easy to vary. | 嗯,这个是很容易改变的。 |
| 1219 | Why did spring start later today? | 为什么春天今天晚些时候开始? |
| 1220 | Well, later this month. | 这个月晚些时候 |
| 1221 | Well, it's because Persephone, you know, got lost in her way out. | 因为珀耳塞福涅 迷路了 |
| 1222 | Or why Persephone? | 或者为什么是珀耳塞福涅? |
| 1223 | Why wasn't she just Aphrodite? | 为什么她不只是阿佛洛狄忒? |
| 1224 | Right. | 对 |
| 1225 | So it's just a very easy to vary theory. | 所以这只是一个很容易改变的理论。 |
| 1226 | So it's not really a good explanation. | 所以这不是一个很好的解释。 |
| 1227 | On the other hand, if you look at the axial tilt theories, | 另一方面,如果你看看轴向倾斜理论, |
| 1228 | because the Earth tilted 23 degrees and, you know, when it's going around the sun, | 因为地球倾斜了23度 当它绕着太阳走的时候 |
| 1229 | there's, you know, parts of it are further away and parts are closer. | 有的,你知道的,它的部分是更远 和部分更接近。 |
| 1230 | And that determines the seasons. | 这决定了季节。 |
| 1231 | Well, OK, that's a very good theory, because if I move from 23 to 22, | 好吧,好吧,这是一个非常好的理论, 因为如果我从23移动到22, |
| 1232 | the date of spring should change. | 春季的日期应当改变。 |
| 1233 | So it's a very precise theory. | 所以这是一个非常精确的理论. |
| 1234 | It's a very narrow theory. | 这是一个非常狭义的理论. |
| 1235 | It's hard to vary. | 难得变化. |
| 1236 | And then to that, I would also add, | 除此之外,我还要补充: |
| 1237 | you know, there are parts of his books we can read and he adds a few more | 你知道,他的书里有部分 我们可以读到,他又加了一些 |
| 1238 | not criterion, but these are telltale signs. | 这不是标准,但这些都是告示标志。 |
| 1239 | And so I would say good theories also often make risky and narrow predictions. | 所以我要说,好的理论 也经常作出风险和狭隘的预测。 |
| 1240 | So now when someone makes a good theory, says they have a good explanation, | 所以现在当有人提出一个好的理论, 说他们有一个很好的解释, |
| 1241 | they have a new theory. | 他们有一个新的理论。 |
| 1242 | It's OK. Well, let's test it. | 没事的 试试看 |
| 1243 | What prediction are you making that other people were not making? | 你在预测别人没有做什么? |
| 1244 | That is a high risk prediction that if it turned out to be true, | 这是一个高风险的预测 如果事实证明是真的, |
| 1245 | you'll be validated. | 你会被验证。 |
| 1246 | But if it turned out not to be true, then, you know, egg on your face. | 但是,如果它证明不是真的, 那么,你知道,鸡蛋在你的脸上。 |
| 1247 | And it should be hard to vary. | 应该很难改变 |
| 1248 | It should be a fairly precise prediction, a narrow prediction. | 应该是相当准确的预测,狭义的预测. |
| 1249 | And you should be taking risk. | 你应该冒险 |
| 1250 | So I would add that in another thing he talks about, | 所以我要补充,在另一个事情 他谈论, |
| 1251 | which I think has been very helpful is like you don't throw out your theory | 我觉得这很有帮助 就像你没有放弃你的理论 |
| 1252 | just because there's a mistake in it. | 只是因为里面有错 |
| 1253 | You only throw it out if you have a better theory that explains | 你只要有更好的理论来解释 |
| 1254 | what the previous theory did, plus corrects a mistake. | 之前的理论所做的事 再加上一个错误 |
| 1255 | And that is a good criterion for choosing between alternative explanations. | 这是在备选解释之间作出选择的良好标准。 |
| 1256 | Induction. | 上岗 |
| 1257 | Oh, my God. | 须菩提. |
| 1258 | He takes down induction. | 他取消了上岗 |
| 1259 | That's a huge one. | 这是一个巨大的。 |
| 1260 | We live our whole life through induction. | 我们通过上岗来过一辈子 |
| 1261 | The sun rose yesterday, so it will rise tomorrow. | 昨天太阳升起,所以明天就会升起 |
| 1262 | You know, so humans are very inductive creatures. | 你知道,所以人类是非常诱人的生物。 |
| 1263 | One, two, three, four, five, then come six, seven, eight. | 一,二,三,四,五 然后来六,七,八。 |
| 1264 | But a lot of the interesting things in life are explaining | 但生活中很多有趣的事情都在解释 |
| 1265 | the scene in terms of the unseen, which means that very often | 从看不见的角度看,这意味着经常 |
| 1266 | things will happen that are nonlinear, that suddenly there's emergent properties | 会发生一些非线性的事情 突然间就有了新的属性 |
| 1267 | or there's a nonlinear kink in the curve, which something unexpected happens. | 或有非线性曲折 在曲线上, 这是出乎意料的事情发生。 |
| 1268 | How did that happen? | 怎么会这样? |
| 1269 | You're boiling water. | 你在沸水。 |
| 1270 | It goes 98 degrees, 99 degrees, getting hotter and hotter and hotter | 它走98度,99度,越来越热,越来越热 |
| 1271 | 100 degrees. | 百度报. |
| 1272 | Oh, it's really hot. | 哦,这真的很热。 |
| 1273 | And then stays at 100. | 然后停留在100点。 |
| 1274 | What's going on with turning into steam? | 变成蒸汽是怎么回事? |
| 1275 | But the water is not getting any hotter than 100. | 但水的热量没有100多 |
| 1276 | The steam is hotter than the water. | 蒸气比水热. |
| 1277 | You're going to burn yourself in the steam or you can drive an engine | 你要在蒸汽中烧掉自己 或者你开个引擎 |
| 1278 | with more power with the steam than you could with your engine. | 蒸汽的动力比你的引擎强 |
| 1279 | the water so clearly something here has happened that you need to explain and life is full of these | 水是如此明显 发生了一些事情 你需要解释 生活充满了这些 |
| 1280 | so that's another example of where his epistemology has been revolutionary another one is he's not | 所以,这是另一个例子 他的认知已经革命了 另一个是,他不是 |
| 1281 | reductive so he doesn't say like it's all about particle physics or the fundamental layer of | 递归性,所以他不说 像它所有的粒子物理 或者基本层 |
| 1282 | explanation everything else above is just like made up theory because you don't understand | 解释上面所有的东西 就像编造的理论 因为你不明白 |
| 1283 | particles no it's because they're emergent properties at every scale you can't you can't | 粒子 不 是因为它们在每个尺度上都有刚出现的特性 你不能 |
| 1284 | explain how we got how you and i are sitting here without applying to higher level theories about | 解释一下我们是如何做到的 你和我坐在这里,没有应用更高层次的理论 |
| 1285 | you know capitalism and reasoning and documentary filmmaking and all that you you can't just say | 你知道资本主义 推理 纪录片的拍摄 以及所有你不能随便说的 |
| 1286 | well it's because of particle collisions from the big bang till now because that's the theory that | 这是因为粒子碰撞 从大爆炸直到现在, 因为这就是理论 |
| 1287 | explains everything and theories that explain everything explain nothing so you know in unpopular | 解释一切 解释一切的理论 解释一切的理论 |
| 1288 | juan is people these days that you know they'll say i'm depressed i'm unhappy why because i have | Juan是现在的人 你知道他们会说我很沮丧 我很不高兴 为什么因为我有 |
| 1289 | a chemical imbalance in my brain well every mood you have is a chemical imbalance in your brain | 我脑中的化学不平衡 每一个情绪都是你脑中的化学不平衡 |
| 1290 | that's not helpful right yes that might be a way to fix it maybe i can give you drugs that will | 这没什么用,是的,也许可以解决 也许我可以给你药物 |
| 1291 | make you happy but it's not really the underlying cause the underlying cause is probably there are | 让你开心 但这不是根本原因 根本原因可能是 |
| 1292 | things that are making you depressed there are thoughts that are making you depressed maybe | 让你沮丧的东西 有些想法让你沮丧 也许 |
| 1293 | external factors of how you want things to be different that are making you depressed | 外在因素,你希望事情 不同,让你沮丧 |
| 1294 | but mere chemical imbalance it can be useful for trying to fix it but it's not really the | 但仅仅是化学不平衡,它可以帮助 试图修复它,但它不是真的 |
| 1295 | explanation at the right level of why you might be unhappy and that's what cognitive behavioral | 正确解释你为什么不开心 这就是认知行为 |
| 1296 | therapy tries to do it tries to unravel why you might be unhappy and talk through it and think | 治疗试图这样做 试图解开 为什么你可能不高兴 并谈论 通过它,思考 |
| 1297 | and then reevaluate your decisions and choices and it might help you so i think you know operating | 然后重新评价你的决定和选择 可能会帮助你 所以我觉得你知道操作 |
| 1298 | at the right level of explanation he's got tons of this by the way tons and tons of it but | 在正确的解释水平上,他有吨 这个方式的吨和吨 |
| 1299 | there's lots of ways in which it can improve your thinking you know all life is error correction | 有很多方法可以改善你的想法 你知道所有的生命都是错误的校正 |
| 1300 | all judgment is error correction you know just the core principle of like you want explanations you | 所有的判断都是错误的校正,你知道的核心原则 就像你想解释你一样 |
| 1301 | be satisfied with mere prediction mere prediction is not enough because the world is a predictor | 仅仅满足于预测是不够的 因为世界是预测者 |
| 1302 | you know you can just if you want to see what's going to happen next just wait the world will | 你知道只要你想看看接下来会发生什么 等待世界会 |
| 1303 | show you but you also want to deeply understand why and at an exponent at a core level that's | 告诉你,但你也想 深刻了解为什么,在一个核心层面的启迪者 |
| 1304 | what an explanation does it tries to answer the question of why and that that i think is a | 是什么解释 它试图回答为什么的问题 我认为是一个 |
| 1305 | fundamental question that people always ask but you can always ask why that why that thing and | 根本的问题 人们总是问, 但你总是可以问 为什么那东西和 |
| 1306 | because you can always keep asking why you're always going to have a new and better problem | 因为你总是可以问 为什么你总是会有一个新的更好的问题 |
| 1307 | underneath when you've solved this one and that's why there's an infinite number of problems to be | 当你解决了这个问题 下方就有很多问题 |
| 1308 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你总是在无穷无尽的开始 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我觉得穷人和德国人都拒绝 | |
| 1309 | the anything called the scientific method which gets pushed into universities nowadays it's like | 所谓的科学方法 被推入大学 现在它就像 |
| 1310 | it's kind of like inductivist and empiricist a little bit where you start with observations | 它有点像进取主义和进化主义 你从观察开始 |
| 1311 | and then you form a theory but without a problem you can't form any observation in the first place | 然后形成一个理论,但是没有问题 你无法形成任何观察 |
| 1312 | some of these theories come so far out of left field in physics it's more obvious relatively | 物理学中有些理论 已经从左侧领域流出 相对来说 比较明显 |
| 1313 | relativity and quantum mechanics are examples that come out of left field where it's not like | 相对论和量子力学 是从左外野中产生的例子 |
| 1314 | einstein just dropped more apples than newton and then eventually got to relativity no he just | 爱因斯坦刚刚掉的苹果比牛顿多 最后他得到了相对论 没有他只是 |
| 1315 | did these crazy thought experiments that looked like they had no bearing on anything no scientist | 这些疯狂的思想实验 看上去跟任何事物毫无关系 没有科学家 |
| 1316 | was even talking about them in an inductive sense like go from a to b to c to d and then ended up | 甚至在感官意义上谈论他们 就像从a到b到c到d 然后最后 |
| 1317 | with with relativity but you know even simple like everyday life it's like should i eat chicken | 有相对性,但你知道,即使是简单的 像日常生活 它应该像我吃鸡 |
| 1318 | or should i eat beef right well a simple empirical model would be like well let's lay all the food | 或者我应该好好吃牛肉 一个简单的经验模型 就像很好,让我们所有的食物 |
| 1319 | out in front of us let me take through it but humans are incredibly creative i just like i | 站在我们面前 让我来渡过难关 但人类非常有创意 |
| 1320 | don't want to eat at all i'm going i'm just not going to eat i'm just going to fast or i'm just | 完全不想吃,我要去 我只是不吃 我只是要斋戒或只是 |
| 1321 | going to drink i'm going to make a smoothie out of this or i'm going to just throw it all together | 我要喝杯酒,要不就一起喝 |
| 1322 | so creativity is unbounded and unlimited so just extrapolating inductively will not get you | 所以创造力是无限制的 无限的 所以只是推导性推论不会给你带来 |
| 1323 | to the best answers and the best explanations and computers are very good at induction | 最好的答案和最好的解释 和计算机非常擅长诱导 |
| 1324 | and scientific method the moment you have a method you program it you can write a program | 和科学方法,当你有方法的时候,你可以编程一个程序 |
| 1325 | for it well if you can if you can write a program for creativity that's called a gi | 如果你能为创造力写一个程序 叫做Gi |
| 1326 | let me know when you have it but until then just programming a method in that just in just repeats | 让我知道,当你有它, 但在那之前,只是编程一个方法 在刚刚重复 |
| 1327 | experiments and use induction to go a little bit further will not get you the best explanations | 用实验和诱导方法走得更远 不会给你最好的解释 |
| 1328 | induction has its place when you're trying to figure out if the sun's going to rise tomorrow | 感应有它的位置 当你试图找出 太阳是否会升起的明天 |
| 1329 | or you know how much prices are going to go up next year probably induction is very useful | 或者你知道明年要涨价多少 也许上岗很有用 |
| 1330 | induction works really well in what nasim telep calls mediocristan the space that we operate in | 诱导在纳西姆的电话中非常有效 也就是我们运行的中庸空间 |
| 1331 | most of our everyday lives but it's not it's not how you want to form a theory or an underlying | 我们大部分的日常生活 但不是你想如何形成一个理论或基础 |
| 1332 | explanation of how something works you can use induction when you have nothing else to try and | 解释一些东西如何工作,你可以使用感应 当你没有其他的尝试, |
| 1333 | predict what's going to happen next and that's human nature but you're not going to use to come | 预测接下来会发生什么 这就是人性 但你不会用来来 |
| 1334 | up with good explanations of what's actually going on underneath the nasim taleb example that he | 上面有很好的解释 到底发生了什么 在纳西姆的故事的例子 他 |
| 1335 | likes to give is that uh you know the turkey is being fed by the farmer and every day it gets | 喜欢给是,呃,你知道火鸡 由农民喂 和它每天得到 |
| 1336 | like a nice meal and it's like wow this farmer loves me it's such a benevolent farmer and | 像一顿好饭,就像哇... 这个农民爱我... ... |
| 1337 | thanksgiving show this next gets cut off because it had a bad explanation of what was going on | 谢天谢地节目下一场被砍断 因为它对这是怎么回事有不好的解释 |
| 1338 | it was purely inductive what do you think about the low-hanging fruit theory of knowledge and | 这是纯粹的诱导 你对低挂的果实理论 知识和 |
| 1339 | i guess like does that explain the uh slow progress have you seen a slow down of progress | 我想这能解释为什么 呃... 进展缓慢... |
| 1340 | have you seen in physics and other scientific fields i don't i don't think that's a good | 你看过物理和其他科学领域吗? 我不觉得这样很好 |
| 1341 | explanation i think the uh first of all if we're going to run out of low-hanging fruit we're going | 解释一下,我想首先 如果我们要用光 低挂水果,我们要去 |
| 1342 | to run out a long time ago um so i don't think i don't know why you can pick an arbitrary point | 很久以前就用光了 所以我不知道为什么你能挑一个任意的点 |
| 1343 | the curve and say this is the point where we run out i think it's it's much more around um you know | 弧硂琌и奔翴 и稱硂环 |
| 1344 | i think science and academia right now suffers from a lot of groupthink new ideas are aggressively | 我认为科学和学术界现在 受到很多团体思想 新的想法是激烈的 |
| 1345 | rejected we don't have as many natural philosophers anymore kind of just off doing their own thing and | 我们不再有那么多的自然哲学家 做他们自己的事情 |
| 1346 | just trying to figure out better explanations there's a lot of reliance on oh we need a | 试图找出更好的解释 有很多依赖哦 我们需要一个 |
| 1347 | 30 people's names on a paper entire areas of scientific research are sort of kind of closed | 30个人的名字在一篇论文上 整个科学研究领域 有点封闭 |
| 1348 | off or forbidden especially in the biological sciences and genetics partially for political | 特别是生物科学和遗传学部分出于政治原因 |
| 1349 | reasons partially just because you know the no bureaucrat will let you do anything that might | 部分原因 只是因为你知道 没有官僚 会让你做任何事情 |
| 1350 | ever harm a single person because it reflects poorly on them and i actually think we are making | 伤害一个人 因为它反映不好 他们,我实际上认为我们正在做 |
| 1351 | a lot of progress it's just not uh it may not be it may not seem as fundamental like for a simple | 进步很多,不过不是 呃... 可能不是... |
| 1352 | example the theory of quantum computation that deutch came up with or the multiverse theory | 举个例子,Deutch提出的量子计算理论或多向理论 |
| 1353 | or constructor theory that he's working on i'm sure there are other scientists who are working | 或建筑师理论,他的工作 我相信还有其他科学家在工作 |
| 1354 | on lots of other interesting things quantum gravity time etc they may just not have had the | 在很多其他有趣的事物上 量子引力时间等等 他们可能只是没有 |
| 1355 | immediate visible output but all it takes is one person figures out the theory of dark energy and | 即时可见的输出,但只需要一个人 算出暗能量的理论 |
| 1356 | we can harness that wow or if we actually get cold fusion working that would be huge so i do | 我们可以驾驭那哇,或者如果我们真的得到 冷核聚变工作,这将是巨大的 所以我做 |
| 1357 | think more theoretical breakthroughs are already happening you're seeing a lot of math conjecture | 认为更多的理论突破 已经发生 你看到的数学猜想很多 |
| 1358 | solve you can see the advances in computing how machine learning has completely turned the whole | 解答你可以看到计算的进步 机器学习如何彻底改变了整个过程 |
| 1359 | field upside down its head and the theory is actually not trying to catch up to the reality | 场面颠倒了它的头,理论实际上并没有试图赶上现实 |
| 1360 | the pace of technological progress has been tremendous and you could also argue that that | 技术进步的速度是巨大的,你也可以认为 |
| 1361 | progress itself is you know the theory is struggling to catch up to it a lot of like we | 进步本身是你知道这个理论 正在努力赶上它 像我们一样 |
| 1362 | still don't even exactly know the turbulence mechanics of helicopters and how they fly so | 还是不知道直升机的扰动力学 和它们如何飞行 |
| 1363 | sometimes technology out and engineering outpaces the theory nothing wrong with that the theory has | 有时技术的推广和工程的开发 超过了理论的开发 |
| 1364 | to catch up so i i don't think it's a low i don't think low hanging fruit it's a good explanation | 赶上,所以我不认为这是低, 我不认为低悬挂水果 这是一个很好的解释 |
| 1365 | i think it's it may be a combination of we have it and we're still applying it we have it in | 我认为它可能是组合 我们有它,我们仍在应用它,我们有它 |
| 1366 | technology we're looking in the wrong places with the wrong in kind of the wrong group thinky ways | 我们找错地方找错地方找错地方了 那种想法错误的方法 |
| 1367 | we're relying too much on very large and very expensive equipment we have this grant system | 我们过于依赖非常大和非常昂贵的装备 我们有这个赠款系统 |
| 1368 | where i think the average person who gets a grant in university now is 48 where most of the scientific | 其中我认为普通人 谁得到大学的补助金 现在是48 其中大部分的科学 |
| 1369 | breakthroughs tended to come through people in their 20s or teens late teens so maybe the | 20多岁或十几岁后 就会有突破 |
| 1370 | wrong people are getting the money and the encouragement it's hard to say final question | 错人得到的钱和鼓励 很难说最后的问题 |
| 1371 | what do you think are the biggest threats to us in civilization right now let's get as specific as | 你觉得什么是最大的威胁 对我们的文明 现在,让我们来 具体到 |
| 1372 | we can well i think the first thing is you want freedom of thought and communication that comes | и稱材翴 碞琌稱璶稱快猭cm硄笵 |
| 1373 | with freedom of speech so i think any efforts to live limit speech are misguided there's no such | 言论自由 所以我认为 任何限制生活的努力 言论都是误导 没有这样的 |
| 1374 | thing as misinformation your information is my misinformation my information is your misinformation | 作为错误信息 你的信息是我的错误信息 我的信息是你的错误信息 |
| 1375 | that's just putting somebody who gets to define what misinformation is in charge so i think | 那只是让某个人 能够确定什么是错误信息 |
| 1376 | has to be resisted strongly secondly i think the the the society is always structured around the | 第二,我认为社会总是围绕着 |
| 1377 | ability to do violence like it or not because the people with the guns fundamentally eventually need | 有能力做暴力 喜欢与否 因为带枪的人 根本上最终需要 |
| 1378 | to get paid or they take over so i you know even though i myself am not uh you know i think there | 要么被他们收了钱 要么被他们收了 |
| 1379 | are terrible things that happen with guns a lot of crimes and school shootings so i get committed | 是可怕的事情, 发生与枪 大量的犯罪和学校枪击 所以我得到犯罪 |
| 1380 | with guns i do think that you need something like the second amendment where the citizens are the | 我确实认为你需要像第二修正案那样的 公民是 |
| 1381 | government that does not redress their grievances and also because freedom of speech goes away if | 政府不纠正他们的不满 也因为言论自由的消失 |
| 1382 | you can't if you cannot back up what you believe with your own ability to inflict violence when | 如果你不能用自己的暴力能力 支持你所相信的,你就不能 |
| 1383 | you are threatened then your freedoms will be eventually taken away it's just a matter of time | 你被威胁了... ...那么你的自由最终会被剥夺... ...只是时间问题 |
| 1384 | and i think we're seeing that across the world most of the world lives in unfree societies | 我认为我们看到 全世界大多数的人 生活在不自由的社会中 |
| 1385 | and i think that trend is just getting worse so i think that is a difficult thing | 我觉得这个趋势正在恶化 所以我觉得这很困难 |
| 1386 | um religion is still around it's just masquerading as | 宗教还在周围 它只是伪装成 |
| 1387 | secular so you know that that invisibility gives it kind of a mind virus characteristic | 所以,你知道,这种隐形 赋予它一种精神病毒特征 |
| 1388 | other threats i mean there is there is truth to the fact that some kinds of knowledge are almost | 其他威胁,我的意思是,事实上,有些知识几乎 |
| 1389 | forbidden knowledge in the sense that like a single virus could end most of the human species a | 被禁知识,因为像单一的病毒 可能结束大多数人类 |
| 1390 | nuclear war could end most of the human species the problem is not discovering these things you | 核战争可以终结大多数人类 问题不在于你发现这些东西 |
| 1391 | can't stop discovery and everything good has a bad kind of side to it in technology but what | 无法阻止发现,每件好事 都有不好的一面 在技术,但什么 |
| 1392 | happened the tough part happens when the people who discover it are not the people who are wielding | 当发现它的人 并不是那些挥舞着 |
| 1393 | it and not the people who hold on to it that knowledge gets spread very quickly so for example | 而不是持有它的人 知识传播得很快 比如说 |
| 1394 | countries that could never that don't have the civilization structure and the knowledge structure | 没有文明和知识结构的国家 |
| 1395 | and the moral structure to develop nuclear weapons get nuclear weapons right and they | 发展核武器的道德结构 |
| 1396 | the delivery systems for other cynical people but again the only way out is through you can't | 其他玩世不恭的人的送货系统... ...但唯一的出路是... ...你无法... |
| 1397 | kind of stop people because the people who are doing the stopping then end up with everything | 那种阻止人们,因为 做停止的人,然后结束 与一切 |
| 1398 | this is this is the mistake that i think a lot of young people make they believe in institutions as | 我认为很多年轻人 都相信机构 |
| 1399 | being infallible so they basically say well we'll just stop all the races from talking and we'll | 绝对不会出错 所以他们基本上说得好 我们就阻止所有种族的交谈 |
| 1400 | stop all the evil people from having guns who's going to do that because those people will be the | 阻止所有邪恶的人 拥有枪 谁要这样做,因为那些人将是 |
| 1401 | people who are in charge of the guns who are telling you what to do and what you can't do | 负责枪支的人 谁告诉你做什么,什么你不能做什么 |
| 1402 | and what you can own what you can't own they end up in charge this is why every marxist revolution | 你拥有的,你无法拥有的,他们最终会负责... ...这就是为什么每个马克思主义革命 |
| 1403 | ends up with a single thug on top uh pole pot running cambodia running soviet russia chavez | 最终有一个暴徒在顶端的... 杆子锅上 运行坎波迪亚 运行苏联的俄罗斯查韦斯 |
| 1404 | and maduro running venezuela because when you can no longer allocate resources through merit | 和马杜罗运行venezuela 因为当你无法再通过功绩分配资源 |
| 1405 | your only remaining option is to allocate them through power even if we live in a communist | 你唯一剩下的选择就是通过权力来分配他们 即使我们生活在共产主义者之中 |
| 1406 | utopia who has to clean the toilets somebody has to clean the toilets who's living on the | 乌托邦,谁要清理厕所 有人要清理厕所 谁住的厕所 |
| 1407 | front property and who's living inland well someone you know coincidentally it ends up being | 和谁住在内陆的好人 你认识的人 巧合的是它最终是 |
| 1408 | the friends of the people with guns or the ruling family so these are just monarchies by another | 持枪的人民的朋友 或统治家族 所以这些只是君主制 |
| 1409 | name they're just more popular instead of appealing to god and saying i'm ruling because i have the | 他们只是更受欢迎 而不是对上帝的吸引力 并说我的裁决 因为我有 |
| 1410 | divine right of kings and god is telling me to rule instead these dictators and thugs are saying | 国王和上帝的神圣权利 让我来统治 而不是这些独裁者和暴徒说 |
| 1411 | i'm ruling on behalf of the people i have the divine masses of the people behind me the state | 我代表人民裁决 国家背后的广大人民 |
| 1412 | behind me so i think that these are just the modern versions of the old divine monarchies | 在我身后,我想这只是 现代版本的旧神制君主 |
| 1413 | we've evolved things have gotten better but there's still more ways to go so if i had to say i would | 我们进化了 事情已经变得更好... ...但是还有更多的路要走... |
| 1414 | say the greatest greatest threats to the future are suppression of freedom of speech freedom of | 说未来最大的威胁是压制言论自由 |
| 1415 | mathematics freedom of expression freedom of creation and those are pointless if they can't | 数学自由 言论自由 创作自由 和那些 如果他们不能 |
| 1416 | be backed up by violence if you don't have your own ability to inflict violence it will be taken | 如果你没有自己的暴力能力 就会被暴力所支持 |
| 1417 | away from you you know one recent tweet i had was i said the right to vote does not give you power | 离你远一点,我最近发过一条微博 说投票权不会给你权力 |
| 1418 | power gives you the right to vote you can just do a simple thought exercise if there were 100 of us | 权力给了你投票权 如果有100个人的话 你可以做简单的思考 |
| 1419 | on a desert island and we're trapped and we all kind of have to cooperate to make society to create | 在荒岛上 我们被困住了 我们都必须合作 让社会创造 |
| 1420 | a new society suppose there are 10 of us who are 10 people on the island who are all from the same | 一个新的社会,假设我们有10人 谁在岛上是10人 谁都是来自相同的 |
| 1421 | ethnic background who are all extremely unified and they have all the guns those 10 have it the | 种族背景,他们都非常统一 他们拥有所有的枪 这10个有它 |
| 1422 | other night you don't who do you think is going to end up running the place for the benefit of the | 有一天晚上,你不认为谁会 最终管理这个地方 受益者 |
| 1423 | others anyone who's been around the block a few times knows what's going to happen so it's just | 其他人谁去过 周围的街区几次 知道会发生什么 所以它只是 |
| 1424 | the nature of humans that if you want freedom at the individual level if you want the rights to be | 人类的性质,如果你想在个人层面的自由,如果你想权利是 |
| 1425 | dispersed and distributed and the power has to be dispersed and distributed and there's very few | 分散和分配 电力必须分散和分配 极少 |
| 1426 | organizations that do that really it's the right to bear arms cryptography free speech mathematics | 拥有武器加密自由言论数学的权利 |
| 1427 | personal computing these are examples of decentralized technologies and capabilities | 这些是分散技术和能力的例子。 |
| 1428 | that spread power amongst people most things concentrate power mic drop that was awesome | 将权力分散在人们中间 多数东西 集中力量 麦克风下降,这是真棒 |
| 1429 | thank you so much thank you appreciate the time | 非常感谢你 感谢时间 |
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