真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确

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剧集目录

集	标题	时长
P1	真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确	25:10
P2	真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确	30:35

P1 · 真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益》作者 p01 上 (P1)

真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益》作者 p01 上 (P1)

发布于 2026-10-11 · 时长 25:10

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:01	Thanks for coming, everybody.	谢谢各位光临
0:02	Nicholas Nassim Taleb毕生致力于不确定性、概率和知识等问题。
0:08	He spent two decades as a trader before becoming a philosophical essayist and academic researcher.	在成为哲学散文家和学术研究员之前,他作为商人度过了20年.
0:14	Although he now spends most of the time either working in intense seclusion in his study or as a flaneur, I love that word,	虽然他现在大部分时间要么在书房里工作要么做一个花花公子
0:21	meditating in cafes across the planet,	在全地球的咖啡馆里冥想
0:23	he is currently distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute.	他目前是纽约大学理工学院杰出的风险工程教授.
0:28	His main subject matter is decision-making under opacity.	他的主要课题是在不透明的情况下进行决策.
0:32	That is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand.	这就是说,一张地图和一份协议, 说明我们应该如何生活在一个我们不明白的世界中。
0:37	We'll be selling books after the talk and Mr. Taleb will sign them for you.	谈完后我们会卖书 Taleb先生会帮你签的
0:44	He's going to pause for questions occasionally during the talk as well as after, but please go to the mic if you want to ask a question.	他将在谈话期间和之后偶尔暂停提问,但如果想提问请去麦克风.

展开字幕全文（403 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Thanks for coming, everybody.	谢谢各位光临
2	Nicholas Nassim Taleb毕生致力于不确定性、概率和知识等问题。
3	He spent two decades as a trader before becoming a philosophical essayist and academic researcher.	在成为哲学散文家和学术研究员之前,他作为商人度过了20年.
4	Although he now spends most of the time either working in intense seclusion in his study or as a flaneur, I love that word,	虽然他现在大部分时间要么在书房里工作要么做一个花花公子
5	meditating in cafes across the planet,	在全地球的咖啡馆里冥想
6	he is currently distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute.	他目前是纽约大学理工学院杰出的风险工程教授.
7	His main subject matter is decision-making under opacity.	他的主要课题是在不透明的情况下进行决策.
8	That is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand.	这就是说,一张地图和一份协议, 说明我们应该如何生活在一个我们不明白的世界中。
9	We'll be selling books after the talk and Mr. Taleb will sign them for you.	谈完后我们会卖书 Taleb先生会帮你签的
10	He's going to pause for questions occasionally during the talk as well as after, but please go to the mic if you want to ask a question.	他将在谈话期间和之后偶尔暂停提问,但如果想提问请去麦克风.
11	Okay, please welcome Nicholas Nassim Taleb.	好吧,请欢迎尼古拉斯・纳西姆・塔莱布。
12	Thank you for inviting me.	谢谢你邀请我
13	It's actually the first time I speak at a place	这是我第一次在一个地方说话
14	knowing what it's about, because I've watched your Google Talks on YouTube and	我看过你的谷歌演讲
15	they're quite interesting because they're long.	它们很有趣,因为它们很长。
16	No, they're one hour,	不,他们只有一小时
17	which means we have like an hour and ten minutes, because there's always a bonus that the speaker likes to give himself.	也就是说我们只有1小时10分钟因为演讲者总是喜欢给自己奖金
18	So thanks for inviting me.	谢谢你邀请我
19	An author should not give you a substitute for his book.	作者不应该给你替代他的书。
20	A book is a different product.	一本书是不同的产品.
21	It's not a talk.	这不是谈话。
22	So in other words, it's not something that you can substitute.	换句话说,这不是你能替代的东西。
23	So what I'm going to do is mostly, what I have here are slides, is	所以,我要做的是,我这里有幻灯片,
24	things to scare you a little bit, which is graphs, things that cannot be captured	吓唬你的东西是图无法捕捉的东西
25	fully in a verbal conversation, and I'm going to show you graphs.	完全在口头谈话中, 我要给你们看图表。
26	What is this idea of	这是什么想法
27	anti-fragile about?	反脆弱吗?
28	So I will speak for about, what,	所以我会说,什么,
29	20-25 minutes, which means probably 30, and then we're going to have a Q&A, but if you're extremely angry with what I have to say,	20至25分钟,大概30分钟, 然后我们要去一个QQA, 但如果你对我要说的话非常生气,
30	do not hesitate and interrupt.	不要犹豫和打断。
31	Raise your hand.	举手曰.
32	If you have severe disagreements, disagreements are always very good.	如果你有严重的分歧, 分歧总是很好。
33	This is why these things	这就是为什么这些东西
34	should be different from the book, because with the book, the author rarely disagrees with himself, you see.	应该与书不同, 因为与书,作者很少不同意自己,你看。
35	Whereas here, you can have disagreements and	而在这里,你可以有分歧和
36	they're welcome.	不用谢
37	Okay, so we start.	好了,我们开始吧。
38	When you ask, if you ask your	当你问,如果你问
39	mother or	母亲或
40	cousins, someone who hasn't heard about this book, what's the opposite of fragile?	堂兄弟们,一个没听过这本书的人, 与脆弱的相反是什么?
41	What do you think the answer would be?	你觉得答案是什么?
42	Robust, what else?	强壮,还有什么?
43	Stout?	斯图特?
44	Durable, solid, adaptable, resilient, what else?	持久坚固适应性韧性还有呢?
45	Okay, it's not.	好吧,这不是。
46	Simply	简单
47	because if you're sending, let's look at the exact mathematical opposite.	因为如果你发送, 让我们看看确切的数学相反。
48	I don't know, you guys work for Google.	我不知道你们在谷歌工作
49	What's the opposite of negative here?	这里的负面反面是什么?
50	Positive, okay, it's not neutral.	肯定的,好吧,它不是中立的。
51	Okay, very good.	好吧,很不错。
52	So what's the opposite of convex?	那么对流有什么相反的?
53	Concave, actually the negative of convex is concave, you see.	孔,其实孔的负是孔,你看.
54	Very good.	很不错。
55	So the opposite of robust cannot possibly be,	所以,相反的强力不可能是,
56	the opposite of fragile cannot possibly be robust.	与脆弱相反的情况不可能是强劲的。
57	If I'm sending a package to southwestern Siberia,	如果我把包裹送到西伯利亚西南部
58	and it has, it's a wedding and you're sending a wedding gift, so you have champagne flutes.	它已经,这是一个婚礼而你正在送一个婚礼礼物, 所以你有香槟笛子。
59	What do you write on a package?	包裹上写什么?
60	Fragile, and underneath, to explain it to the Russian inspector, what do you say?	脆弱, 和下面, 解释它给俄罗斯巡视员,
61	Handle with care, all right, okay.	仔细处理,好吧,好吧。
62	So what is the opposite of handle with care?	那么,什么是相反的手与小心?
63	If you're going to send the exact opposite package, what would you, what would you write on it?	如果你要寄一个完全相反的包裹你会写些什么?
64	Exactly, please mishandle.	没错,请处理不当。
65	So something that is fragile, if you map it properly mathematically,	所以,一些脆弱的东西, 如果你正确的数学地图,
66	you'd realize that the fragile is what does not like disorder.	你会意识到脆弱是不喜欢混乱的
67	It doesn't want mishandling,	它不希望处理不当,
68	it doesn't want volatility, it wants peace and predictability.	它不想要波动,它想要和平和可预测性。
69	So the opposite of that would be something that loves volatility.	因此,相反的是,它喜欢波动。
70	What I'm saying may sound interesting and new,	我说的也许听起来有趣又新鲜
71	but it's not to the option traders I worked with, because I was an option trader for 20 years before becoming,	但这不是我的错选项交易商, 因为我是一个选项交易商 20 年之前,
72	whatever, calling myself whatever, all these names, all right.	不管怎么说,都叫自己,这些名字,好吧
73	I was just a simple option trader before, but my publishers now,	我以前只是个简单的交易商但现在我的出版商
74	you know, they want to hide it, but	你知道,他们想隐藏它,但
75	the fact is, and option traders, they have, they understand the world of use in two different dimensions.	事实是, 和期权交易商, 他们有, 他们理解使用的世界在两个不同的方面。
76	The things that	那些东西
77	don't like volatility and things that like volatility, and it's very, very extremely bipolar view of the world.	不喜欢波动和喜欢波动的东西, 它是非常,非常极端的两极观的世界。
78	You don't have, almost have nothing in between, and effectively, all I did is generalize this idea	你没有,几乎之间什么都没有, 而且有效,我所做的只是概括这个想法
79	to map it, you know, to things	以地图,你知道,事物
80	that option traders, because option traders, all they do is they, they drink and they trade options, all right.	选择权交易商, 因为选择权交易商, 他们所做的只是他们, 他们喝酒和他们交易选择权, 好吧。
81	So they don't have exposure outside of that narrow field.	因此,他们没有暴露在那个狭窄的球场之外。
82	So all I'm doing is representing them to take the idea outside,	所以,我所做的只是代表他们把想法外面,
83	and we can do a lot of things, because effectively,	我们能做很多事情因为有效
84	fragility is something I can measure, and anti-fragility is something I can measure, but risk you can't really measure,	脆弱是我能衡量的, 抗脆弱是我能衡量的, 但风险你无法真正衡量,
85	unless, of course, you,	当然除非你
86	you know, you're at Harvard or Stanford or one of these places where they have the illusion that they can measure risk,	你知道,你是在哈佛或斯坦福或其中的一个地方他们有幻想他们可以衡量风险,
87	but in reality, we can't measure risk.	但实际上,我们不能衡量风险。
88	It's something in the future I can measure fragility, and let's see how we can generalize.	未来我可以衡量脆弱性, 让我们看看如何概括。
89	The graph you have here	这里的图表
90	shows you very simply a fragile payoff,	告诉你一个脆弱的回报,
91	where nothing happens most of the time.	大部分时间都没什么事
92	I don't know, you don't have porcelain cups here, otherwise we would have had an experiment,	我不知道,你这里没有瓷杯, 否则我们会有一个实验,
93	but nothing happens most of the time, but when something happens, it's negative, you see.	但大多数时候没有发生什么, 但是,当事情发生, 它是负的,你看。
94	So this is a fragile.	所以,这是一个脆弱的。
95	You can, everything fragile has this property.	你可以的,一切脆弱拥有这个财产。
96	You can, to give you a hint, we can	你可以,给你一个提示,我们可以
97	generalize it to medicine, where you take pills, where, that give you very small benefits.	把它归纳为医学, 在那里你吃药,在哪里, 让你得到很少的好处。
98	The benefits are small or	好处不大或
99	non-existent, and the harm is	不存在,伤害是
100	large and rare, and	大而罕见,
101	often not seen in the past history of the product.	产品过去的历史中经常看不到。
102	That's a fragile.	这是一个脆弱的。
103	So I take a pill,	所以我吃了药
104	gives me small benefits, and then	给我一点好处然后
105	ten years later, you realize that it gave you cancer or some hidden disease that nobody saw.	十年后,你意识到它给你癌症或一些隐性疾病没有人看到。
106	Same payoff, the fragile, okay?	同样的回报,脆弱的,好吗?
107	Visibly, the anti-frag, the robust will have this payoff.	很明显,反分裂者,强者会得到这种回报。
108	It doesn't care, and the anti-fragile will have, sorry,	它不关心, 和反脆弱会有,对不起,
109	the anti-fragile will have this payoff, where	反脆弱分子会得到回报的
110	harm is small and	伤害很小,而且
111	the big variations are positive, are favorable.	巨大的变化是积极的,是有利的。
112	So this is sort of like the idea, the general idea.	所以,这有点像想法,一般的想法。
113	It's, it's, it's, once you link fragility to	它,它,它,它,一旦你把脆弱与
114	volatility, you can do a lot of things, and let me show you exactly the link.	波动,你可以做很多事情, 让我告诉你确切的链接。
115	I'm going to show you a graph that sort of	我要给你们看一张图
116	explains it in graphical terms.	用图形来解释
117	Everything fragile has to have disproportionate harm, in other words, concave, nonlinear.	任何脆弱的事物都必须有不成比例的伤害,换句话说,是凝固,非线性.
118	I'll show you, we'll talk about concave in a few minutes.	我带你看看几分钟后我们再谈洞穴
119	Nonlinear harm	非线性伤害
120	with respect to an event size.	关于事件规模。
121	Let me explain.	让我解释一下
122	I mean, you guys at Google, and particularly in this part of California, pretty special,	我的意思是,你们在Google, 尤其是加州的这个地方, 非常特别,
123	but if you jump ten meters, that's 33 feet, I guess people here in Palo Alto in this area, they die, no?	但如果你跳10米,那是33英尺, 我猜这里的人在帕洛阿尔托在这个区域, 他们死了,不是吗?
124	Very good, no?	很不错,不是吗?
125	They would die, all right.	他们会死的,好吧。
126	Now, if you jump a hundred times ten centimeters, you survive, no?	现在,如果你跳100倍10厘米, 你生存,不是吗?
127	Every, okay, you, it means your exposure is not linear to harm.	所有,好吧,你, 这意味着你的暴露不是线性伤害。
128	You'll harm a lot more	你会伤害更多
129	jumping ten feet than if you jump ten times one foot, you see?	跳十英尺比你跳十倍一英尺,明白吗?
130	So you have acceleration of harm.	所以你有加速伤害。
131	If I smash one of the Maseratis you see in Palo Alto	如果我打碎了马塞拉提斯人之一你在帕洛阿尔托看到的
132	against a wall at a hundred miles per hour,	时速一百英里的墙壁上
133	I'm going to damage it a lot more than if I smash it a hundred times at one mile per hour, you agree?	我会破坏它很多比如果我打碎它一百倍每小时一英里,你同意吗?
134	So you have, it means that there is disproportionate harm	所以你有,这意味着有不成比例的伤害
135	coming, an acceleration of harm.	来了,伤害加速。
136	It's a second	这是第二
137	order effect.	命令效应。
138	Fragility is in a second order effect, and it has to be so.	虚弱是第二顺序效果,必须如此.
139	Because if harm were not linear, were linear, I'd be harmed just walking to the office, you see?	因为如果伤害不是线性的,是线性的, 我会受到伤害只是走到办公室,你明白吗?
140	This is a central idea.	这是一个中心的想法。
141	Anything that has survived, and is in existence today, is harmed a lot more	任何幸存下来的东西以及今天存在的东西都会受到更多的伤害
142	by a ten percent, say, move in the market, ten percent,	百分之十,比如,在市场上移动,百分之十,
143	ten meter jump, or whatever it is, then by a tenth of that, then ten times a tenth of that.	十公尺的跳跃,或者它是什么, 然后以十分之一, 然后十倍之一。
144	It means it has to be concave to a source of stressor.	这意味着它必须被凝固到压力源。
145	In my book, I give the, because in my book	在我的书,我给,因为在我的书
146	I don't have these, this is, the stock is more sophisticated than the book,	我没有这些,这是, 股票比书更精密,
147	or the contents of the book.	或书的内容。
148	In a book, I have to, you know, give a story, and it's in the Talmudic	在一本书里,我必须,你知道, 给出一个故事, 它在塔尔穆迪克
149	literature that there is a king who had to punish his son, and he had to	文学说有个国王要惩罚他的儿子他必须...
150	crush him with a big stone.	用大石头砸碎他
151	And	还有
152	given that he was both a king and a father, he had a dilemma until it was solved by a local counselor	鉴于他既是国王又是父亲他陷入困境直到当地顾问解决
153	who told him it's very simple, crush the big stone in pebbles, and then throw pebbles at it.	他告诉他这很简单,把大石头压碎在石块里,然后把石块扔下去.
154	That's the definition of fragility.	这就是脆弱性的定义。
155	Anything that survived,	任何幸存下来的东西
156	conditional on something, having survived, it has to be harmed disproportionately.	以某种东西为条件,幸存下来后,必须受到不成比例的伤害。
157	You see, the larger the stone, the more the harm.	你看,石头越大,伤害就越大。
158	With this, you can see why large is, becomes vulnerable to	有了这个,你可以看到为什么大,变得容易
159	shocks, because, for example, a hundred million pound project in the United Kingdom, where we have data,	例如,在英国的一亿英镑项目我们有数据
160	has 30% more cost overruns than a five million pound project.	成本超支比500万英镑项目多30%。
161	You see?	看到没?
162	So this is, now with this,	因此,现在有了这个,
163	not only we have a definition of fragility, but we have a robust way to measure it.	我们不仅有脆弱性的定义,而且有衡量脆弱性的有力方法。
164	How?	怎么会?
165	Simple.	简单
166	I cannot, it's the acceleration that allows me to detect the fragility, the acceleration of harm.	我不能,这是加速允许我发现脆弱性,加速伤害。
167	If I	如果说
168	have a bad	有问题
169	ruler, I can't measure a child, the height of a child, you agree?	统治者,我不能测量一个孩子,一个孩子的高度,你同意吗?
170	It's very hard, but I can, but it can tell	很难但我可以但可以看出来
171	how fast he's growing, and percentage, you agree?	他的成长速度有多快,你同意吗?
172	So I don't have to have a great measuring tool for fragility.	因此,我不需要一个很好的衡量脆弱度的工具。
173	All I need is to detect the second order derivative, the acceleration.	我需要的就是检测第二订单衍生物加速
174	Because fragility is in acceleration.	因为脆弱性正在加速。
175	Now that I gave you the difficult stuff, let me talk about my book.	现在,我给你困难的东西, 让我谈谈我的书。
176	Everything reposes on this idea	所有事情都沉思着这个想法
177	that we can, that fragility is in a concave, and if I learn how to work this, hold on,	我们能做到的,那脆弱在一个凸起, 如果我学会如何工作,坚持住,
178	this is a concave.	这是孔洞
179	The concave is fragile, and you can see the benefits, all right?	洞穴很脆弱,你可以看到好处,好吗?
180	And the concave is antifragile.	则孔ca为防虚.
181	To give you an idea why the concave is fragile,	为了让你知道洞穴为什么脆弱
182	your grandmother, if you have a piece of information that your grandmother spent	你的祖母,如果你有你祖母花费的信息
183	two days at 70 degrees Fahrenheit,	两天的华氏70度,
184	you know, as the sole information, you would assume that your grandmother is very happy, no?	你知道,作为唯一的信息, 你会假设你的祖母是非常幸福的,不是吗?
185	That's the perfect temperature for grandmothers.	这对祖母来说是完美的温度
186	But if as a second, then the second order,	但是,如果作为第二, 然后第二顺序,
187	your grandmother spent the first day at zero degrees, and the second one at 140 degrees, for an average of	你祖母的第一天是零度,第二天是140度,平均
188	70 degrees.	70度风度70度
189	I think you would be thinking about the inheritance and all the things that come with funeral, no?	我认为你会考虑遗产和所有的东西与葬礼,不是吗?
190	Okay.	摆
191	So, is fragile what does not like a negative second order effect, and is therefore antifragile what likes variation and likes these second order effects?	那么,什么不喜欢负面的第二顺序效应, 是什么喜欢变异,什么喜欢这些第二顺序效应?
192	Let me try to work this because I'm a little confused about this.	让我试试看,因为我有点困惑
193	My, how to work the computer, okay.	如何操作电脑,好吗?
194	The, figured out how to work it.	那个,想出了如何操作它。
195	So let's start with the graphs, and let me talk about the book.	故先以图文为序,再谈书文.
196	Now you're confused enough, but intrigued.	现在你已经够困惑了,但很感兴趣。
197	So let me talk about my book after I showed you these technical definitions.	所以,让我在给你看这些技术定义之后再谈谈我的书。
198	Well, this book, I realized	嗯,这本书,我意识到
199	that this property of antifragility, once you had definition of fragility, then you have this opposite, was misunderstood in the discourse.	一旦你定义了弱点, 你却有相反的倾向, 在言论中被误解了。
200	Like when governments want stability, they shoot for perfect stability, but something that is organic	就像当政府想要稳定时, 他们为完美的稳定而射击, 但有机的东西
201	requires some amount of volatility.	需要一定的波动性。
202	It's the exact opposite of the grandmother.	和奶奶正好相反
203	There's a mathematical property called Jensen's inequality that tells you that often things gain under variability.	有个数学属性叫做詹森的不平等, 它告诉你,事物往往在变异性下得到好处.
204	There are a huge amount of phenomena like that.	这样的现象很多
205	In other words, you do a lot better yourself if you spend an hour at 50 degrees and an hour at 80 degrees than if you spent two hours at	换句话说,如果你在50度时花一个小时,在80度时花一个小时, 你就会做得更好。
206	65 degrees, for example.	比如说65度
207	That Jensen's inequality, anything convex.	詹森的不平等,任何凸起。
208	Actually, this is a graph of Jensen's inequality.	实际上,这是詹森不平等的图。
209	Okay, here it is.	好吧,在这里。
210	It's complicated.	这很复杂。
211	I told you.	我告诉你。
212	All right, so let me remove it very quickly.	好吧,所以让我把它很快。
213	So there are things that like variation.	所以有些东西喜欢变异。
214	So you can classify	所以,你可以分类
215	things in three categories.	分为三类
216	The fragile is what does not like volatility, randomness, variability, uncertainty, stressors.	脆弱是不喜欢波动,随机性,可变性,不确定性,应激因素.
217	The robust doesn't really care, like the book and bridge, and the antifragile requires some amount of variability in all of these.	坚固的并不真正在意,像书和桥一样,抗脆弱需要一定的变异性,所有这些.
218	The discourse missed completely	讨论完全错过了
219	the notion of antifragile.	反脆弱的概念。
220	So we try to get stability with government, for example.	因此,我们试图获得稳定政府,例如。
221	They want to have no fluctuation and you saw what Greenspan did.	他们想要没有波动你看见格林斯潘做了什么
222	If you gave them the seasons, you would have had the seasons at 67.8 degrees, the temperature year round, like inside this office.	如果你把季节给他们,你会有季节以67.8度,温度全年, 就像在这个办公室内部。
223	That's what you maintain, I think.	我想这是你坚持的
224	All right, inside the office.	好吧,在办公室里。
225	And of course, you know, we've blown up the planet.	当然,你知道,我们已经炸毁了地球。
226	I'm glad we only gave him the economy.	我很高兴我们只给他经济。
227	He only blew that up.	他只是把它炸飞了
228	Okay.	摆
229	But we do a lot of harm by depriving something organic of a certain amount of variability.	但是,我们做了很多伤害通过剥夺有机的东西一定的可变性。
230	Anything organic communicates with this environment via stressors.	任何有机物都通过压力器与这种环境进行交流.
231	So this is composed of	所以这是由
232	seven books.	七本书。
233	Book one, I talk about this difference between a cat and washing machine.	第一册,我讲的是猫和洗衣机的区别
234	In other words, between the organic	换句话说,有机体之间
235	that requires stressors.	这需要压力。
236	I don't know, you guys have a gym at Google?	我不知道,你们在谷歌有健身房吗?
237	Well, there you go.	给你
238	So you put your body under stress.	所以你让你的身体承受压力。
239	But you don't realize there are other things you need to put under stress as well.	但是,你不知道还有别的事情你也需要承受压力。
240	There are other stressors you need to have	还有其他压力你需要的
241	just to enjoy life if you want to be alive.	想活命就享受生活
242	There's no liquid I know of that tastes better	没有液体,我知道味道更好
243	than a glass of water after	超过一杯水之后
244	spending some time in a Sahara desert, you see.	在撒哈拉沙漠待了一段时间
245	So therefore there is a transcendent inequality at work right there in your life, you see.	因此,在你的生活中,工作上存在着一种超越性的不平等。
246	So	这么说
247	the we're missing on we realize here and there that you need to stress the bones.	我们在这里和那里意识到你需要强调骨头。
248	But we don't really transfer to other areas of life.	但我们并没有真正转移到生活的其他领域。
249	Like we may not like to have, you know, this architecture, modernistic architecture, smooth architecture.	就像我们可能不喜欢,你知道, 这个建筑,现代主义建筑, 光滑的建筑。
250	It's not as pleasant.	这不是那么愉快。
251	It's not for us as something richer, fractal.	对我们来说不是更丰富分形的东西
252	I'm looking out the window.	我看着窗外。
253	I have trees.	我有树。
254	A lot richer and the the ancients actually like that.	富很多古人其实就是这样
255	I don't know if you've been in a Gaudi building in Barcelona where you walk in you feel like it's a cave.	我不知道你是否在巴塞罗那的Gaudi大楼里在那里你走进来感觉就像个洞穴
256	It's rich in details and I feel more comfortable.	内容丰富,我更舒服
257	Well, visibly my eye likes variations.	很明显我的眼睛喜欢变异
258	Just like your body like some term of variation and some stressors.	就像你的身体像一些变异和压力。
259	Okay, so that's book one	好吧,这就是第一本书
260	where I talk about that and I talk about ethics.	在那里我谈论它,我谈论道德。
261	What happens is that people understand that what doesn't kill me makes me stronger.	发生的事情是人们明白,不杀我的东西让我更强大.
262	But they don't understand the real logic of it, which is that what kills me makes others stronger than in fact a system	但他们不理解它的真正逻辑, 那就是,是什么使我死亡其他人比事实上的系统更强大
263	that works very well is a system that has layers like the restaurant business works very well because its components are fragile.	工作非常顺利的系统拥有像餐厅一样的层层工作非常顺利因为它的部件很脆弱
264	The entrepreneurship otherwise would be eating bad food.	否则,创业者会吃坏食物。
265	I mean, not that we're eating great food all the time, but you understand the idea, right.	我的意思是,不是说我们吃伟大的食物所有的时间, 但你明白的想法,对不对。
266	You'd be eating like Russia during Soviet era.	苏联时期你会像俄罗斯一样吃东西
267	So there's some	所以有一点
268	businesses thrive like California.	商业繁荣,像加利福尼亚。
269	I'm here at the epicenter of things that thrive because of the failure rate is converted	我在这里的震中事物繁荣因为失败率转换
270	into benefits for the system.	给系统带来好处。
271	So this is Darwinistic	所以这是达尔文主义
272	except that we can inject some ethics into it to avoid what philosophers call the	除了我们可以给它注入一些伦理以避免哲学家所谓的
273	naturalistic fallacy that what is natural isn't necessarily great.	自然主义的谬论自然的不一定是伟大的
274	So we can have	所以我们可以有
275	we should have entrepreneurs	我们应该有企业家
276	encourage them, you know, more entrepreneurs in the economy, encourage them to fail and	鼓励他们,你知道,更多的企业家在经济,鼓励他们失败,
277	remove the stigma.	消除耻辱。
278	It's the only place in the world where there's no big stigma for failure here in California.	这是世界上唯一一个在加州没有失败的耻辱的地方
279	We should have it more generalized because you need them.	我们应该更笼统些因为你需要它们
280	But also at the biological level when you starve yourself you stress some cells and the reason we are, you know,	但是在生物层面,当你饿死自己时, 你强调一些细胞和我们的原因,你知道,
281	we can be healthy.	我们可以保持健康。
282	We are healthy.	我们是健康的。
283	It's because there are fragile cells in us that break first on	因为我们有脆弱的细胞首先打开
284	stress.	压力
285	So and they therefore we you have an improvement within you.	因此,他们让我们在你体内有所改进。
286	So you always have the top layer requires the fragility of a lower layer.	所以,你总是有顶层需要低层的脆弱性。
287	So that's book one.	所以这是第一册。
288	Book two,	第二册
289	again, these books are separate books that discuss	再说一遍这些书是分开的讨论
290	different topics linked to that original idea that I gave you.	不同的话题与我给你的最初想法有关
291	Book two is about modernity.	第二册论现代性.
292	How suddenly we start having policies to try to control, you know,	我们如何突然开始有政策试图控制,你知道,
293	touristify the world where you have a plan, you have everything, everything is smooth, no randomness in life.	旅游世界你有一个计划, 你有所有的一切, 一切都是光滑的, 生活中没有随机性。
294	And I explained that really we have a lot of,	我解释道,我们有很多...
295	you know, people have discovered over time that you need randomness to stabilize a lot of systems.	人们逐渐发现你需要随机性来稳定很多系统
296	So the book discusses a disease called interventionism,	所以这本书讨论一种叫做干预主义的疾病,
297	overstabilizing systems and some research on different areas, about 50 of them, that	系统过于稳定,对不同领域进行了一些研究,其中约50个。
298	where in which there is a need for randomness to stabilize the system like	需要随机性来稳定系统
299	Maxwell的州长你知道
300	it was discovered that if you overstabilize a steam engine, it blows up.	发现如果蒸汽机运转过度就会爆炸
301	But so we have that in economy, have that in a lot of places.	但是,在经济方面,很多地方都有。
302	So that's my book too, and I thought discuss a certain brand of persons I call the fragilista,	所以,这是我的书, 我想讨论某个品牌的人,我叫弗拉吉利斯塔,
303	someone who denies	否认的人
304	the antifragility of thing and fragilizes by	事物的易碎性和易碎性
305	之后我们再谈Fragilista的亲戚
306	with the Soviet Harvard approach to things from top down not bottom up.	苏联哈佛大学从上到下而不是从下到上
307	So that's book two.	这就是第二本了
308	Book three introduces a friend of mine, Fat Tony, all right, and Fat Tony is	第三册介绍我的朋友,肥托尼,好吧,肥托尼是
309	doesn't like predictions and he visibly as his name indicates he enjoys life and	他不喜欢预言他明显地表现为他的名字表明他享受生活
310	but he's not his little course and then he's his friend Nero, he and Nero always fighting.	但他不是他的小路然后是他的朋友尼禄他和尼禄总是吵架
311	But he taught Nero how to smell fragility	但他教尼禄如何闻到脆弱
312	because you see these graphs, I had to use my brain to understand fragility, Fat Tony can do it naturally.	因为你看到这些图表, 我不得不用我的大脑来理解脆弱性, 胖托尼可以自然做到这一点。
313	He can figure out the sucker.	他能找出那个混蛋
314	So his idea of the world is sucker versus non-sucker	所以他的世界思想是傻子对非笨蛋
315	and his point is that any system that's based on prediction is gonna blow up.	任何基于预测的系统都会爆炸
316	So he finds those who really are sensitive to prediction error	所以他发现那些真正对预测错误敏感的人
317	because remember the fragile is very sensitive to prediction error.	因为记住,脆弱对预测错误非常敏感。
318	So then I continue	所以我继续说
319	book four, I don't know if I have the book numbers right, but you know, it's okay	书四,我不知道我的书号是否正确, 但你知道,没关系
320	I can change it because I'm the author, remember, right?	我可以改变它,因为我是作者,记得吗?
321	Book four is about, okay, book four is about optionality and things I introduce	第四本是关于,好吧,第四本是关于可选性的我介绍的东西
322	linked to convexity.	连接到对流。
323	I haven't given talk, you know, I don't want to scare the readers.	我没有说话,你知道,我不想吓唬读者。
324	I didn't talk to them about convexity right away.	我没有马上跟他们谈对流
325	I tried to get through the back door	我试图通过后门
326	via this	通过这个
327	very simple	很简单
328	representation, if you have an asymmetric payoff, if you make more when you're right	代理,如果你有不对称的回报, 如果你做对了更多
329	then you lose when you're wrong, all right?	然后,你输当你错了,好吗?
330	Then you are anti-fragile and if you have more to lose than to gain, you are fragile.	那你就是反脆弱如果你失去的比得到的多你就会变得脆弱
331	Same applies to coffee cup to anything, China, anything, all right?	咖啡杯也一样,中国,任何东西,好吗?
332	And of course, volatility will be the	当然,波动是
333	vector, you know, that will cause you to lose.	矢量,你知道的, 这将让你输。
334	So	这么说
335	I introduced this, but instead of, so far the book is not technical, so I	我介绍了这个,但实际上,到目前为止,这本书不是技术性的,所以我
336	introduced it via Fat Tony and then Seneca.	通过肥东尼介绍,然后是塞内卡.
337	Seneca also was like Fat Tony, but much more intellectual.	塞内卡也像肥胖的托尼,但更聪明.
338	Seneca, the Roman philosopher,	塞内卡,罗马哲学家,
339	who was precisely not Greek in the sense that he was practical and he had a practical approach to stoical philosophy.	他完全不是希腊人,因为他是实用的,而且他有实践方法来对待斯图主义哲学。
340	The guy was the wealthiest man in the world and he was obsessed with the fact that when you're very wealthy	这家伙是世界上最富有的人他迷恋的事实,当你非常富有
341	you have more to lose than to gain from wealth.	你们所损失的,多于财富所得的。
342	So he trained himself every day to wake up thinking he's poor and	所以他每天都在训练自己想着自己很穷
343	rediscover wealth or and once in a while he would get on a he would mimic like he would he would have a	重新发现财富或者偶尔他会像他一样模仿他
344	shipwreck in which he writes that he only he like lives as if he were on a shipwreck with only one or two slaves, right?	他写道,他只喜欢像在只有一两个奴隶的沉船上一样生活,对吧?
345	You get it.	你明白吗?
346	So that was his, but he was a wealthiest man in the world writing about how to love poverty, you get the idea.	所以那是他的, 但他是一个最富有的人在世界上写如何爱贫穷, 你得到的想法。
347	But he, the guy was good at it.	但他,这家伙很擅长
348	He figured out that you have to always be in a situation where he got more upside than downside and	他发现,你必须总是在一种情况他得到更多的颠倒比下方,
349	then he don't have to worry about randomness and in fact the strangest thing is not that he said it.	然后他不必担心随机性事实上最奇怪的事情不是他说的
350	Picked it up in him.	捡起来的
351	I was shocked.	我很震惊。
352	I said this guy is talking like normal people.	我说这家伙说话像普通人
353	With all academics, the view of stoicism is that they'd be like academics, all right?	与所有学者, 斯图主义的观点是他们会像学者,好吗?
354	Boring and	无聊和
355	like vegetables.	喜欢蔬菜。
356	Stoicism unmoved by the world.	世间所不动的斯托主义.
357	No, they're only unmoved by bad events.	不,他们只是没有被坏事件移动。
358	That's central.	这是中心。
359	So via Seneca, I introduced that notion of asymmetry.	因此通过塞内卡,我提出了不对称的概念。
360	Always have more downside, more upside than downside from random events, and then you're anti-fragile.	总是有较多的负面,比起随机事件的负面反面,然后你反易碎.
361	So I go through Fat Tony and Seneca to drill the point and it sort of works.	所以我通过肥胖托尼和塞内卡来钻钻这个点,它有点奏效。
362	Also, this book has titles and subtitles and there's no connection	还有,这本书有标题和字幕,没有联系
363	between the title, the subtitles, and the text, all right?	标题、字幕和文字之间,好吗?
364	So why?	为什么?
365	Because I wanted, since I wrote my first book, I sort of, I was afraid of reviewers,	因为我想,因为我写了我的第一本书, 我有点害怕审查员,
366	but then I said the best way to have a book is to tick off reviewers from day one.	但我说有一本书的最好办法就是从第一天开始就把审查员调走
367	So that way I don't have to fear them.	这样我就不用怕他们了
368	And reviewers, they want to skim a book.	和审查人员, 他们想滑一本书。
369	They can't understand, figure out what it is about.	他们不能理解,找出它是什么。
370	Plus, I put	还有,我说
371	600 pages of a map.	600页地图。
372	Actually, it's a Google text, by the way.	事实上,这是谷歌的短信
373	You guys are warehousing it for free.	你们是免费的
374	So far, it's 400 pages of mass, dense mass, as backup for this, plus a technical appendix, so	到目前为止,它是400页的质量,密集的质量, 作为备份, 加上一个技术附录,所以
375	the, you know, just to tick off reviewers,	你知道,只是勾掉审查,
376	so the idea is I want people to go through the reading experience so they can figure out, by then, that I'm talking about	所以我希望人们能通过阅读体验来了解,到那时,我所说的
377	the whole thing book is about Jensen's inequality,	整本书是关于詹森的不平等
378	all right?	好吗?
379	Things that love randomness and how to benefit from it.	喜欢随机和如何从中得益的东西.
380	Now I'm going to go to California and talk to you guys about a	现在我要去加利福尼亚和你们谈谈一个
381	phenomenon.	现象。
382	I'll skip the chapters because here I have more Greek philosophers, more stories, something very simple.	我跳过这些章节,因为这里我有更多的希腊哲学家, 更多的故事,非常简单的东西。
383	I'm going to simulate a process here.	我要模拟一个过程
384	This is not in a book, by the way, all right?	这不是一本书,顺便说一句,好吗?
385	This is outside the book.	此在书外.
386	Simulate the process where you have two people competing.	模拟两个人竞争的过程
387	One person has knowledge and his brother has	一个人有知识他的兄弟有
388	has a convexity, has a convex payoff.	有对流,有对流补偿。
389	Look at, and the difference between them would be, the difference between knowledge and a convex payoff	你看,他们之间的区别是, 知识和对流的回报的区别
390	would be what I call the convexity bias.	我称之为对流偏差
391	I simulated it and look how big it is.	我模拟了它,看看它有多大。
392	Well, visibly	很明显
393	this explains something	这解释了什么
394	that people so far couldn't understand.	人们至今无法理解
395	You know, trial and error, okay, has errors in it, do you agree?	你知道,试和错误, 好吧,有错误在它,你同意吗?
396	So in history books, a history of technology, people	因此,在历史书籍, 科技史,人
397	usually oppose trial and error versus theoretical knowledge, but they never were able to work with trial and error.	通常反对试验和误差与理论知识,但他们始终无法与试验和误差合作.
398	They didn't understand it had to be convex.	他们不知道一定是凸轮
399	Trial and error relies on luck, but luck can hurt you.	审判和失误取决于运气但运气会伤害你
400	So it was never modeled as an option,	所以它从未被模拟为一种选择,
401	technology as an option.	技术作为一种选择。
402	If this model is an option, and I'm sure there's a lot of questions,	如果这个模型是一个选择, 我相信有很多问题,
403	so I leave, I go over this,	所以我离开,我走过这一点,

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P2 · 真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益》作者 p02 下 (P2)

真正让人变强的，不是稳定，是波动和不确定性｜《反脆弱：从不确定性中获益》作者 p02 下 (P2)

发布于 2026-10-11 · 时长 30:35

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	as an option.	作为一种选择。
0:00	If this model is an option, and I'm sure there's a lot of questions,	如果这个模型是一个选择, 我相信有很多问题,
0:03	so I leave, I go over this very quickly, if I were to model it as an option, trial	所以我走了,我很快地去研究, 如果我要把它当作一个选择,审判
0:07	and error, then it would have, it would be something that loves volatility, you	错误,然后它会, 它会是喜欢波动的东西,你
0:13	see.	看到没?
0:14	Option loves volatility.	选择喜欢波动。
0:15	And you can have policies that come from it.	你可以有来自它的政策。
0:18	My idea	и種
0:19	of Flannery is very simple.	弗拉内里非常简单
0:21	When, I'd much rather have series of options, like have	我宁愿有一系列的选择比如

展开字幕全文（685 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	as an option.	作为一种选择。
2	If this model is an option, and I'm sure there's a lot of questions,	如果这个模型是一个选择, 我相信有很多问题,
3	so I leave, I go over this very quickly, if I were to model it as an option, trial	所以我走了,我很快地去研究, 如果我要把它当作一个选择,审判
4	and error, then it would have, it would be something that loves volatility, you	错误,然后它会, 它会是喜欢波动的东西,你
5	see.	看到没?
6	Option loves volatility.	选择喜欢波动。
7	And you can have policies that come from it.	你可以有来自它的政策。
8	My idea	и種
9	of Flannery is very simple.	弗拉内里非常简单
10	When, I'd much rather have series of options, like have	我宁愿有一系列的选择比如
11	a long highway with a lot of exits, than be locked in into top-down plan, like a	一条长长的高速公路,有很多出口, 而不是被锁在自上而下的计划, 像一个
12	highway with no exits.	高速公路无出口.
13	A destination, you exit, that's it.	一个目的地,你离开,就是这样。
14	So assume you want to	所以假设你想
15	change your mind, you're in trouble, okay?	改变主意,你有麻烦了,好吗?
16	Particularly if you don't know Russian	尤其是如果你不懂俄语
17	and you're in Russia, right?	你在俄罗斯,对吧?
18	That's how they build their thing.	他们就是这么造的
19	So the, so you have	所以,所以你已经
20	two approaches to knowledge.	知识的两种方法。
21	One is top-down, and one is bottom-up.	一是自上而下,一是自下而上.
22	So here	所以这里
23	there are about 75 pages that should upset a lot of academics, because you	有大约75页,应该让很多学者不安因为你
24	take, I took some, you know, evidence, which includes my own field, which was to	我拿走了一些证据包括我自己的领域
25	study derivatives, that a lot of things that we think, we believe, come from top-down	研究衍生物, 有很多东西,我们认为, 从上而下
26	knowledge and theoretical knowledge, effectively come from tinkering.	知识和理论知识实际上来自修工。
27	Dressed	着装
28	up later as having been developed by a theoretician, which includes these	后来作为理论家开发的包括这些
29	corners up here.	角落在这里。
30	Euclid, people say you have to learn Euclidean geometry, and	欧几里得,人们说你必须学欧几里得几何
31	look at all these things that were built after Euclid, all right, for about 15th,	看这些东西都是在欧几利德之后建造的大约15号
32	16th century.	16世纪.
33	People were building things that never heard who Euclid was, all	人们建造的东西从来没有听说过谁是欧几利德,所有
34	right?	对吧?
35	The Romans were extremely heuristic, very, very, very experienced	罗马人极富活力极富经验
36	based, and they did everything using this convex knowledge.	他们利用这种对流知识做了一切
37	How is convex	对流怎么样?
38	knowledge?	知识?
39	It's exactly like cooking.	这就像烹饪。
40	You have very little to lose by adding an	你再加一个
41	ingredient and tasting, all right?	配料和味道,好吗?
42	If it works, now you have a better recipe.	如果有用,现在你有一个更好的食谱。
43	If	若为
44	it fails, you lost nothing.	它失败了,你什么都没有失去。
45	So things in knowledge, no, no academic would want, I	所以知识上的东西, 不,没有学术想要,我
46	mean, I'm a professor in an engineering department.	我是工程系的教授
47	No academic, except engineers,	没有学术,除了工程师,
48	because they're nice people, no academic would accept the notion that knowledge	因为他们是好人没有学者会接受知识的概念
49	can come from a bottom-up, you know, so we have evidence of what I call lecturing	从下到上,你知道的, 所以我们有证据我称之为教学
50	birds how to fly.	鸟儿如何飞.
51	A lot of science comes from technology, but look at a definition,	许多科学来自技术但看看定义
52	Google technology science, and explain that technology is application of	Google技术科学,并解释技术是应用
53	science to practical things, exactly opposite.	科学到实际的东西,完全相反。
54	Anyway, so this is my option	总之,这是我的选择
55	theory thing.	理论的事情。
56	I don't know if it upset many of you, but typically it upsets	我不知道这是否令你们中许多人心烦意乱但一般情况下会令你们心烦意乱
57	academic.	学术.
58	So then I go to the notion of medicine.	所以我开始研究医学的概念。
59	To get to it, I go to something	为了得到它,我要去的东西
60	呼叫通过negativa。
61	How to make something robust?	如何使一些坚固的东西?
62	To make something robust,	做点坚固的事
63	there are two things.	有两件事
64	Because of Jensen's inequality, it's better to run, better to	由于詹森的不平等,它更好运行,更好运行
65	walk and sprint rather than just jog.	走路跑步而不是只跑步
66	So you have strategies that are, have	所以,你有策略是,有
67	variations in them.	变化。
68	Bipolar strategies are vastly better than monom, you know,	双极策略比单体要好得多
69	strategies.	战略。
70	And you see it, for example, in, with portfolios, it's much better to	你看,比如说,在投资组合中, 最好是
71	put 80% of your money risk-free if you can find something like that, and 20%	如果你能找到这样的东西就能免去你80%的钱的风险还有20%
72	speculative, rather than the whole thing medium risk.	而不是整个事情中等风险。
73	Much more robust that way.	那样更强壮
74	But you can see it in the policy of every single monogamous species, which	但从每个单一一夫一妻制物种的政策来看
75	includes humans, but we have data for birds.	包括人类但我们有鸟类的数据
76	Monogamous birds, typically, instead	典型的独食鸟类
77	of the female opting for a good match, she picks the accountant 90% of the time	她选择了90%的时间来选择会计
78	and the rock star to cheat with 10% of the time.	和摇滚明星欺骗10%的时间。
79	For a linear combination of	对于线性组合
80	having someone in the middle, you see?	中间有人,你明白吗?
81	So the idea, you take the loser but stable	所以,这个想法,你把失败者但稳定
82	accountant and something like that.	会计之类的
83	Accountants are losers, but you see the	会计师是失败者,但你看
84	And then you take, and then you have the hot shot rock star on the occasion.	然后你拿,然后你有热拍摇滚明星在场合。
85	So	这么说
86	the linear combination is better.	线性组合更好。
87	This is explained in the book, why things that	这在书里解释,为什么事情
88	have variation, and I use the same, the very same equation of Janssen's equation	有变异,我用同样的,非常相同的方程詹森的方程
89	to show why it's a lot more stable.	说明为什么它更稳定。
90	So, and then medicine, of course.	所以,然后药,当然。
91	This is	这是
92	medicine, where you have visible gains from anything, you know, you ingest in	医学,你从任何事物中都有明显的好处, 你知道,你摄入
93	medicine and big losses.	药和大损失。
94	惟医有凝滞,而 the, the.
95	the, I study, you know, the problems of, of harm done by the healer, whether in	我研究,你知道, 问题, 由治疗者伤害, 无论是在
96	policy or, or, or something else, in medical terms.	政策,或者,或者,或者其他的,在医学上。
97	It's called the	这叫做
98	atrogenics, harm given to you by someone who's supposed to help you.	遗传学,伤害你的人谁应该帮助你。
99	And you can	你会的
100	measure the atrogenics probabilistically.	以概率测量遗传物质。
101	I'm going to give you an idea that I	我会给你一个想法,我
102	put on the web today.	今天上线
103	That's not exactly in the book, but what we discovered from	这不完全在书里, 但我们从发现
104	something about blood pressure.	是关于血压的
105	So you have these big hidden risks.	所以你有这些巨大的隐性风险。
106	But if you	不过如果你
107	look at Mother Nature, okay, Mother Nature equipped us for a lot of natural, I	看大自然,好吧,大自然为我们配备了很多自然,我
108	mean, three billion years is a lot of time, okay, even for Google, you see.	也就是说,30亿年是很多时间, 好吧,即使是谷歌,你看。
109	So	这么说
110	it's a lot of time.	这是很多的时间。
111	So Mother Nature was capable of treating things that are,	所以大自然有能力处理的东西是,
112	don't deviate from the normal.	不要偏离正常。
113	So if you, we have never been able to find	所以,如果你,我们从来没有找到
114	anything you can put in your system that has turned out to be 20 years later,	任何能放进你体内的 20年后的系统
115	unconditionally good, without a hidden risk like this.	无条件的好,没有这样的隐性风险。
116	Steroids, taxaminophen,	类固醇分类氨基苯
117	all these, you see, small little gains.	所有这些,你看,小小收益。
118	But on the other hand, we should analyze	但另一方面,我们应该分析
119	medicine using convexity terms.	医学用对流术语。
120	That if you are very ill, you should have a lot	如果你病得很重,你应该有很多
121	more medicine, and much less medicine if you're not very ill.	如果你病得不重,就少点药
122	Τㄇ
123	payoff from medical treatment.	医疗补偿。
124	But there is a problem, and let me give you the	但有一个问题让我告诉你
125	problem.	问题。
126	If you're mildly hypertensive, and they give you drugs, you have one	如果你有轻微的高血压, 他们给你药物,你有一个
127	chance in 53 of benefiting from it.	在53年有机会从中获益。
128	But now you have all these risks.	但你现在有这些风险了
129	If you're	如果你喜欢
130	extremely hypertensive, you have 90, 80% chance of benefiting from the drug.	极度高血压,你有90%,80%的机会从药物受益。
131	So	这么说
132	you have this risk, but you have also huge benefit, particularly when you're	你有这种风险, 但你也有巨大的好处, 特别是当你是
133	very ill.	病得很厉害
134	But the problem is as follows.	但问题如下。
135	People who are one sigma away from the	远离西格玛的人
136	mean, which nature has treated, okay, by the way, all right, and medicine doesn't	意思是,哪一种大自然治疗过, 好吧,顺便说一句,好的,药物不会
137	help them much, are five times more numerous than people four sigma away from	帮他们很多,比四西格玛远的人多五倍
138	the mean, you see.	恶毒的,你看。
139	So if you're pharma, what would you do?	如果你是药剂师你会怎么做?
140	Who would you treat?	你会给谁治疗?
141	You see, you have five times more people mildly ill than people very ill. What	你看,你有五倍的人轻度疾病比重症患者。什麽?
142	would you do?	你会吗?
143	You'd focus on the mildly ill, or we'd focus on reclassifying	你会专注于轻度疾病, 或者我们专注于重分类
144	people as mildly ill, you agree?	你同意吗?
145	To be treatable.	为可治.
146	And also they don't die, so	他们也不会死,所以...
147	repeat clients, you're going to catch them for a long time.	重复客户,你会抓住他们很长时间。
148	So I use this	所以我用这个
149	argument against pharma.	反对药药的争论。
150	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}是去除对我们来说不自然的东西
151	You have no side effects, no long-term side effects.	你没有副作用没有长期副作用
152	In a complex system, you	在复杂的系统中,你
153	need something I call less is more, because adding something has	需要我少点的,因为加点什么
154	multiplicative side effects, whereas removing something unnatural, like if I	多重副作用,而去除一些不自然的东西, 就像如果我
155	stop you from smoking or something like that, you have very, very small long-term	戒烟或类似的东西, 你有非常,非常小的长期
156	side effects.	副作用。
157	So that's, these are the books so far, and then book number, the	这些是至今为止的书然后是书号
158	last one, seven, is on ethics.	最后一个,七个,关于道德。
159	It's very simple.	很简单
160	It's about situation in which one	这是关于一个情况
161	person makes the upside, and someone else makes the downside.	人做颠倒, 而别人做负面。
162	You're looking at me	你看着我
163	like, what was he talking about?	他在说什么?
164	Have you heard of banks?	你听说过银行吗?
165	Bankers make the upside,	银行家让事情变得颠倒
166	the rest of society has a downside, all right?	社会上其他人都有一个缺点,好吗?
167	So they're long volatility at the	因此,他们是长期波动在
168	expense of others.	支付他人费用。
169	And of course, it's my most emotional book, and the one that	当然,这是我最有感情的书
170	has enemies, because I name names.	有敌人,因为我的名字。
171	I have this thing.	我有这个东西。
172	When you see a fraud, say fraud,	当你看到一个欺诈, 说欺诈,
173	otherwise you're a fraud.	否则你就是个骗子
174	So, you know, commitment to ethics.	所以,你知道,对道德的承诺。
175	And the whole	整个
176	book is about, you know, of course, never ask a doctor what you should do.	书是有关,你知道,当然, 从来没有问医生你应该做什么。
177	You've	你已经
178	got a complete different answer if you ask him what he would do if you were you,	如果你问他如果你是你他会怎么做
179	all right?	好吗?
180	So here, I don't give advice.	所以在这里,我不给建议。
181	I just tell people what I've done, what I	我只是告诉人们我做了什么,我做了什么
182	do.	说吧
183	Like when someone asks me for forecast, I don't believe in forecast.	就像有人问我要预报时我不相信预报
184	I	一、导言
185	tell them this is what I've done, or this is what I have in my portfolio today.	告诉他们,这是我做过的事, 或者这是我今天的工作。
186	Go look at it if I	狦и
187	want.	想要吗?
188	Otherwise, but no forecast.	否则,但没有预测。
189	The same thing is that you should never take, have	同样的是,你不应该采取,曾经
190	harm others with a mistake.	以错误伤害他人。
191	Why this is central?	为什么这是中心?
192	Because at no time in history	因为从来就没有这样过
193	have we had more people harm others without paying the price.	我们让更多人伤害别人而不付出代价
194	With a	与一个
195	bureaucrat in Washington, they're not harmed, shamed by a spreadsheet.	华盛顿的官僚,他们没有受到伤害,被电子表格羞辱.
196	To	改为
197	economists giving us bogus methods, and academics are not harmed, you know, are	经济学家给了我们假方法, 和学者没有受到伤害,你知道,
198	not the one bearing the harm.	不是那个有伤害的人
199	So nothing improves in that field.	因此,该领域没有任何改进。
200	So they still	所以他们仍然
201	kill telling you, oh, it's peer-reviewed by a great journal.	告诉你,哦,这是同行评审一个伟大的期刊。
202	Nonsense.	胡说
203	All that's	这一切
204	nonsense.	胡说八道
205	They're not harmed by the mistake.	他们没有因为错误而受到伤害。
206	So we can keep going on	这样我们才能继续
207	with all this, can you say, can you curse here?	这一切,你能说, 你能诅咒这里吗?
208	With all this bullshit, all right, you	胡说八道
209	can edit it out.	可以编辑出来。
210	So, I mean, I don't know.	所以,我是说,我不知道。
211	I did that at LSE.	我在LSE做过
212	I used the F word at	我用F这个词
213	LSE.	(原始内容存档于2017-03-21). LSE.
214	And then they told me, well, you know what, we're gonna keep it.	然后他们告诉我,嗯,你知道的, 我们要保留它。
215	But it's	不过
216	extremely unusual.	非常不寻常
217	So I told them, okay.	所以我告诉他们,好吧。
218	But anyway, during the Q&A, probably I can	但无论如何,在QQA期间, 也许我可以
219	relax more.	放松点
220	And so here I've introduced the book.	所以我在这里介绍了这本书。
221	And I end the book with the	书的结尾是
222	following.	接下来
223	The only way you know you're alive, you're not a machine, is if you	你知道自己还活着,你不是机器,只有你
224	like variability.	像变异。
225	That's it.	就这样
226	So this is it.	这就是它。
227	If you're anti-fragile, it means you're	如果你是反脆弱, 这意味着你
228	alive.	活着。
229	So thank you for listening to me.	所以谢谢你听我说
230	And now let's start the Q&A.	现在,让我们开始QQA。
231	I'll keep	我留下来
232	the slides just in case someone asks me an emotional question.	以防有人问我情绪问题
233	Go ahead.	来吧。
234	Hi, thanks for coming.	嗨,谢谢你能来
235	It was great to hear you speak.	听到你说话真好
236	I was wondering if you	我在想你会不会
237	could elaborate on a related topic of fragility, which is this whole question	可以阐述一个相关的脆弱性专题,即整个问题
238	of a long piece.	一个长片。
239	Okay, very good.	好吧,很不错。
240	Excellent.	不错
241	What has happened over the	发生什么事了?
242	past 200 years in the military is that you have switched to tougher weapons.	过去200年的军队里你改用更坚固的武器
243	Okay.	摆
244	So we had longer periods of peace punctuated with war.	因此,我们有更长的和平时期被战争吸引。
245	And if you stood in	如果你站在这里
246	1913 and three quarters looking at recent history, you'd say, oh, it's all quiet	1913年和3/4年看近代史,你会说,噢,一切都很安静
247	now.	现在
248	We don't have to worry.	我们不必担心。
249	Sure, you wouldn't be surprised.	当然,你不会惊讶。
250	So when we moved	当我们搬家的时候
251	into what I call black swan prone variables, it takes much longer to figure	进入我所谓的黑天鹅易变变数需要更长的时间来计算
252	out what's going on.	找出发生了什么。
253	And we live in that world of, you know, where most of the big	我们生活在那个世界上,你知道, 在那里,大多数大
254	jumps come from a small number of variables.	跳跃来自少数变量。
255	You guys here, prove it.	你们在这里,证明它。
256	Okay?	好吗?
257	If you look at how much of the Internet traffic is explained by Google, you have	如果你看看Google解释了多少互联网流量
258	that concentration.	那个集中。
259	You see, if you look at a book business where you have 0.2% of	你看,如果你看一个书业,你有0.2%
260	the author generate happy income, you realize you have that concentration.	作者创造快乐的收入, 你意识到你有这种集中。
261	So	这么说
262	simply, with fat tail processes, you cannot make an inference from just a small	简单的说,有了肥胖的尾巴过程, 你就不能从一个小的
263	sample.	样本
264	And a lot of people make a mistake of taking the last 50 years, say	很多人犯了一个错误过去50年,说
265	nothing happened the last 50 years.	过去50年里什么都没发生
266	Therefore, let's not worry.	因此,让我们不用担心。
267	No, we have a	不,我们有一个
268	lot of potential danger.	很多潜在的危险。
269	Plus, if it's a pinker book, the pinker book is confused.	此外,如果是粉红色的书,粉红色的书是混淆的.
270	But other than that, I mean, it's nice.	但除此之外,我的意思是,这是很好的。
271	Yeah, crime has dropped.	是的,犯罪已经减少。
272	But you can't	但你不能这样
273	make statements about whether the risks have changed.	说明风险是否已经改变。
274	And I've written about it	我已经写了
275	on the web.	在网络上。
276	I don't want to talk about it.	亦不说.
277	I got emotional.	我有点情绪化
278	Thanks.	谢谢
279	Next question.	下问.
280	When you were describing chapter one, I think it was, you said that what doesn't	当你描述第一章时,我想是的,你说的不是
281	kill me makes others stronger.	杀了我让别人更强大
282	Book one, yeah.	第一册,是的。
283	Book one.	第一册.
284	What doesn't kill me,	什么不杀我,
285	what kills me makes others stronger.	是什么让我更强大
286	Right.	对
287	What kills me makes others stronger.	是什么让我更强壮
288	But one of the takeaways I got from your black swan book was that that's a	但我从你黑天鹅的书里拿到的一件外卖是
289	fallacy.	谬论.
290	That if you look at a population and you stress it and... That's excellent.	如果你看一个人口,你强调它和... 这很好
291	The weak ones die out.	弱者死绝.
292	You're left with the strong ones.	汝与强者留之.
293	But it's not really true	但是这不是真的
294	that the stress caused the strength.	压力导致力量。
295	Exactly.	没错
296	It's the same point I'm making.	这跟我说的一样
297	Right?	对吧?
298	The people think that what kills me, what didn't kill me makes me stronger.	人民认为杀死我的东西,没有杀死我的东西,让我更强大.
299	And I'm saying it's wrong.	且道是错.
300	It's typically because it's a selection effect, not an	这通常是因为它是一个选择效果,而不是一个
301	improvement.	改进。
302	Let me go through the history of the mistakes made with	让我来回顾一下那些错误的历史
303	anti-fragility.	反虚弱.
304	There's something in medicine called hormesis.	医学上有些东西叫做荷尔米西斯.
305	You give	你给
306	the antibodies by getting stronger.	抗体通过变得更强。
307	A gentleman wrote something on	一个绅士写了些东西
308	anti-fragility, all right, from a draft I had.	反弱点,好吧,从我的草案。
309	He's a geneticist.	他是遗传学家.
310	And he actually	其实他
311	proved that what happens is that if a system gets stronger, it's because some of	证明发生的事情是,如果一个系统变得更强大, 这是因为一些
312	the components were destroyed.	部件被销毁。
313	So when someone says what killed me, what didn't	所以当有人说什么杀了我,什么没有
314	kill me made me stronger, it could often be that it killed the others who were	杀了我让我更强壮很可能是它杀了其他人
315	weaker.	较弱
316	And therefore, I have the illusion of getting stronger when, in fact, it	因此,我有一个幻觉, 当事实上,它变得更强
317	killed the others who are weaker.	杀了其他弱者
318	You see?	看到没?
319	That's the idea.	就是这样
320	It's a little subtle	有点微妙
321	idea which tells you that everything is by layers.	想法告诉你,一切都是分层的。
322	I have cells.	我有细胞。
323	The cells have	细胞有
324	protein in them and all that.	蛋白质在它们和所有。
325	And typically, the weak needs to always be	通常,弱者需要永远
326	destroyed for the system to improve.	为系统改进而销毁。
327	And this is how your body improves, not	这就是你身体的改善,不是
328	because it overall improves under shock.	因为它总的改善在冲击下。
329	It's because you're killing things that	因为你在杀人
330	are bad, typically.	通常情况很糟
331	Thank you, Professor Taleb.	谢谢你,塔莱布教授。
332	I think that your message about our epistemic	我认为你的信息关于我们的概论
333	limitation is very important.	限制非常重要。
334	And I had a question about your view of the	我有一个问题关于你的观点
335	libertarian movement.	自由主义运动.
336	And how do you think that your idea of anti-fragility	你怎么看待你的反弱点的想法?
337	fits into the ideas of smaller government and more bottom-up approaches?	适合较小的政府的想法和自下而上的办法?
338	That's excellent.	这很好
339	So what I'm showing here is actually, I don't know if it's a	所以,我在这里展示的是,实际上,我不知道它是否是一个
340	libertarian view, but it's definitely a localist view, or the favorite city-states are a lot	自由主义观点,但它绝对是一个地方主义观点, 或者最喜欢的城市州是很多
341	more robust because of the size effect.	因为体积的影响更强壮
342	A small government works better, not	一个小的政府更好,不是
343	because it's small government, but because it's low.	因为它是小的政府, 但因为它的低。
344	You get the idea.	你得到这个想法。
345	Top-down government doesn't work.	自上而下政府不效.
346	Now, you can have probably a	现在,你可以有一个
347	dictatorship in a small village and it may work.	在一个小村庄里实行独裁,这也许可行。
348	So what I cannot prove that	所以我不能证明
349	it's not private versus public.	这不是私人对公众。
350	For me, it's large versus small.	对我来说,它是大对小。
351	Small has the	小有个
352	ability to survive and the large gets disproportionately weakened by unexpected	生存能力,大块块被意外地削弱
353	events.	事件。
354	And thanks for linking it to epistemic opacity because this idea of	谢谢你把它和感知不透明联系起来因为这个想法
355	fragility being measurable solves the problem of opacity.	脆弱性的可衡量性解决了不透明问题。
356	I don't understand	我听不懂你说什么
357	the environment, but I can pretty much figure out if I'm fragile to it.	环境, 但我可以想出我是否脆弱。
358	Go ahead.	来吧。
359	So you said you didn't believe in forecasts, so I won't ask you to make a	所以你说你不相信预测所以我不会让你做一个
360	forecast.	预测。
361	So what's in your portfolio?	那么,什么是你的组合?
362	Okay, I don't want to enter	好,我不想进去
363	the details, but I can talk to you, because I'm talking about my book and	细节, 但我可以和你谈谈, 因为我在谈论我的书和
364	in a year it will change, all right?	一年后它就会改变,好吗?
365	So I can't talk about that, but I would give	所以,我不能谈论这一点, 但我会给
366	that, I'll tell you that if I were compelled to produce a forecast, but I	我会告诉你,如果我被迫制作一个预测,但我
367	don't like the forecast.	不喜欢预测
368	But anyway, the book tells you what I do, all right?	但无论如何,这本书告诉你我做什么,好吗?
369	So	这么说
370	that's what I do and it irritates the critics.	我这样做会激怒批评者
371	Everything that irritates book	一切烦恼书
372	critics is wonderful for them.	批评对他们来说是很棒的。
373	So, but again, consider this class of phenomena	所以,但再一次,考虑一下这种现象
374	that benefit from harm.	从伤害中受益。
375	Rumors love repression.	谣言喜欢镇压。
376	Try to repress a rumor and	试着压制谣言
377	see what we'll do, okay?	看看我们该怎么办,好吗?
378	Go stand up and deny a rumor and see what	站起来否认谣言看看什么
379	when the politician says, you know, we will not devalue the rumor is wrong, you	当政治家说,你知道, 我们不会贬低谣言是错误的,你
380	know, it happens, you know, the best way for rumor to spread.	你知道,它发生,你知道, 最好的办法传播谣言。
381	And same thing with	同样的事情
382	books, try to ban them and see what happens.	书,试着禁止,看看会发生什么。
383	A lot of things, there's	很多东西,有
384	some class of, I call it, what do I call it, refractory love, where people try,	一些阶级,我叫它,我叫它什么, 折叠的爱,在那里人们尝试,
385	like in Proust, where people have obsessive love and the more you try to	在普鲁斯特,人们有迷恋,你越想
386	repress it, the stronger it gets.	压制它,它越强。
387	A lot of things get stronger under repression	在镇压下,很多事情变得更强
388	and belong to that class of antifragile and they all can be mapped as convex.	并且属于那类抗易碎物质它们都可以被描绘成凸轮
389	Yes,	对
390	go ahead.	说吧
391	Some of the systems that you mentioned, the difference of that, I'm	你提到的一些系统, 区别,我
392	just trying to compare that to the financial markets, is you know, if you	只是想和金融市场比较一下
393	get a, if you have a period of stability and all of a sudden you get cancer, you	得到一个,如果你有一段时间稳定,突然你得到癌症,你
394	usually don't recover back yourself.	通常不会恢复自己。
395	Or if you have a fragile item, it breaks down,	或者如果你有一个脆弱的物品, 它崩溃了,
396	it usually doesn't recover itself.	它通常不会恢复自己。
397	But how would you compare that to financial	但是,你如何比较这与金融
398	markets?	市场?
399	Okay, let me, let me, let me link this to the question earlier because now	好吧,让我,让我, 让我联系到这个问题早些时候,因为现在
400	I remember, you know, that I didn't get full answers to the question earlier.	我记得,你知道,我没有得到完整的答案的问题早些时候。
401	A	页:1
402	system that has a lot of parts independent that break sequentially and	具有许多独立部件的系统按顺序和
403	none of it is going to improve.	这一切都不会改善。
404	How?	怎么会?
405	Take, for example, transportation or take	例如,运输或接收
406	engineering.	工程学。
407	Every bridge that collapses makes every other bridge in a country	每座桥一旦垮塌, 就会造出一个国家的桥梁
408	safer.	安全点
409	You see, so the probability of a, you know, a building that collapses make	你看,所以概率一个,你知道,一个建筑倒塌使
410	every building in the country, alright, the probability of the next building	这个国家的每一个建筑,好吧, 下一栋建筑的概率
411	collapsing smaller.	倒塌的较小。
412	Okay, smaller or equal, but not, doesn't get worse.	好吧,小或平等,但不, 不会变得更糟。
413	So when	所以什么时候
414	you have a system composed of small units that break sequentially, fail, fail,	您拥有一个由小单位组成的系统,这些单位按顺序断裂,故障,故障,
415	and you know, without contagion effects, the system improves from failure.	你知道,没有传染效应, 系统从失败中改进。
416	And	还有
417	exactly what kills me made other stronger and that's a benign system or	使我更强壮的是良性系统
418	a system that's actually anti-fragile.	一个系统,实际上是反脆弱。
419	Now, take banking, take large	现在,拿银行,拿大
420	corporations.	企业。
421	When one fails, the other, it increases the probability of the other	当一个失败,另一个失败, 它增加了另一个的概率
422	failing, then the system doesn't work well.	失败了,那么系统运作不好。
423	Okay, that's one thing to answer	好吧,这是一件事回答
424	him and get into your point.	进入你的观点。
425	He's asking me with the financial markets what	他问我金融市场是什么
426	benefit they have.	他们得到了好处。
427	Well, people think that they're good at providing	人们觉得他们很擅长提供
428	information.	资料。
429	In fact, they're great at masking information and that's why it	事实上,他们很擅长掩盖信息这就是为什么它
430	works.	工作时
431	You see, the, the, it prevents panics.	你看,那,那,它防止恐慌。
432	Say if someone is predictable and	说如果有人是可预测的,
433	comes home every day at 5.30, boom, you can set your watch.	每天5点30分回家你可以放表
434	He walked in and one	他走了进来,一个
435	day he's late.	他迟到了
436	What would happen?	会发生什么?
437	Two minutes and everybody freaks out, he's	两分钟,大家都吓坏了,他
438	not here, whereas someone a little more random in his arrival time will not	不是在这里,而有人在他到达的时间更随机就不会
439	cause a panic.	引起恐慌。
440	Well, it's the same thing with prices.	价格也一样
441	That's one of the aspects.	这是其中之一。
442	Another thing with prices is that the volatility prevents big collapses	价格的另外一点是波动可以防止大跌
443	because it's just like a forest.	因为它就像一个森林。
444	You have flammable material, steady small forest	你有易燃的物质,稳定的小森林
445	fires, clean up that flammable material, don't let it accumulate.	火,清理易燃物质,不要让它积累。
446	What, what	或
447	happened was a green span by stabilizing everything, no volatility or	通过稳定一切,没有波动,或
448	minimized volatility, something they call the great moderation, resembles the	最小的波动, 他们称之为伟大的温和, 类似于
449	great piece.	不错的作品。
450	You had a lot of hidden risks in the system, very explosive, ready	你有很多隐藏的风险在系统中,非常爆炸,准备
451	to explode, and effectively, you know, we saw what happened, they blew up.	爆炸,有效,你知道,我们看到发生了什么, 他们爆炸了。
452	So this	所以这个
453	is where financial markets, by bringing volatility, clean up the system	金融市场通过带来波动,清理系统
454	periodically.	定期。
455	So that explains it.	因此,这解释了这一点。
456	Thanks.	谢谢
457	Thanks a lot.	非常感谢
458	The question I had was, how	我的问题是如何
459	does your work reflect on how you think about conglomerates and family	你的工作是否反思你对企业和家庭的思考
460	businesses, especially in the developing world where there seems to be a high	商业,特别是在发展中国家,
461	concentration of preservation and a model where they actually look for	保存的集中和它们实际寻找的模型
462	stability versus chasing variation?	稳定与追求变异?
463	This is a good question.	问得好
464	I don't know much	我不太懂这个
465	about, I look at family data for businesses and effectively in what we	关于,我看看家庭数据对于企业和有效在什么我们
466	call today the OECD countries, they have a staying power because they don't have,	今天,经合组织国家, 他们拥有停留的力量,因为他们没有,
467	they have what I call skin in a game, among other things, and among other	他们有我所说的皮肤在游戏中,除其他外,以及其他
468	qualities.	品质
469	Now conglomerates, I have no idea.	现在联合起来,我不知道。
470	I just like the conglomerate I work	我只是喜欢我工作的集团
471	for, namely the owner of my, the owner of Random House, Bertelsmann, because they're	因为我的主人随机之家的主人伯特尔斯曼,因为他们
472	listed in the market, okay.	上市,好吗。
473	Now you know, although I like market volatility, I	现在你知道,虽然我喜欢市场波动
474	don't like people to fit the company to the security analysts who don't	不喜欢有人把公司配给安全分析师
475	understand hidden risk, and the stock market tend to push companies to hide	了解隐性风险股市往往促使公司隐藏
476	risks in a tail because the security analysts don't have a good tool to	因为安全分析员没有好工具
477	analyze second-order effects.	分析二阶效应。
478	Go ahead.	来吧。
479	How much of the anti-fragility phenomena	多少反脆弱现象
480	that you're talking about across systems is really about evolutionary learning and	你所说的跨系统其实是进化学习
481	that the two curves, knowledge versus, I forget what the other one was labeled,	两条曲线, 知识与, 我忘了另一个是什么标签,
482	but it was the anti-fragile curve, is really about two different forms of	但它是反脆弱曲线, 真的是两种不同的形式
483	acquiring knowledge.	获取知识。
484	One is through, one is for acquiring articulate knowledge	一个是结束,一个是获得清晰的知识
485	through articulate processes, and the other one is for acquiring inarticulate	通过表达过程,另一个是用于获取无文字
486	knowledge, the kind of knowledge that Hayek talks about, where the system	知识,哈耶克谈论的知识系统在哪里
487	learns without the human beings necessarily being aware of what it	人类不必知道它是什么
488	learns.	学习。
489	That's a good question.	问曰.
490	He's asking me how much of, you know, the two	他问我,你知道,那两个有多少
491	types of knowledge, technique, episteme, you see, knowledge top-down, bottom-up,	知识类型,技术, 认识,你看,知识自上而下,自下而上,
492	heuristic knowledge versus, you know, what we call propositional knowledge or	高压知识与我们所谓的命题知识
493	things that are formalized, and so on.	正式化的东西,等等。
494	So there's been a dichotomy	所以发生了两极分化
495	through history between these two, you know, examines a lot of people, but the	通过这两个历史之间,你知道, 检查很多人,但
496	first person who discovered, let me give you a little background, is Nietzsche.	第一个发现的人让我给你一个小背景是尼采
497	Nietzsche had in us a tension between, actually even Seneca discovered it, but	尼采在我们之间有一种紧张, 实际上是塞尼卡发现了它,但。
498	you know, but we attribute it to Nietzsche.	但是我们把它归罪于尼采
499	When he was 25, he wrote the most	他25岁时写得最多
500	beautiful book probably of the century, The Birth of the Tragedy, by showing	这个世纪的美丽书悲剧的诞生通过展示
501	tension in humans between the rational Apollonian and the deep, dark,	理性的阿波罗尼亚人和深黑暗的人类之间的紧张关系
502	unexplainable force, the Dionysian, whatever, how it depends if you're	无法解释的力量, 狄奥尼西亚人, 不管怎样,它如何取决于如果你是
503	British or American, how you pronounce it, from Dionysos, the god of wine, and	英国人或美国人,你是如何发音的, 来自酒神狄奥尼索斯,
504	the evil thing.	邪恶的东西。
505	And he actually, Nietzsche is the one who used the word	事实上,尼采就是那个用这个词的人
506	first, creative destruction.	首先,创造性的破坏。
507	Nietzsche, not Schumpeter, an economist cannot come up	尼采,不是舒彼得,经济学家不能上来
508	with something that deep.	带着这么深的东西
509	Anyway, so Nietzsche spoke about that, and to continue, he	总之,尼采说到这一点,然后继续,他
510	went after Socrates for saying, whatever you cannot explain isn't necessarily	苏格拉底说,你无法解释的都不一定
511	stupid.	蠢货
512	And effectively, in my book, Fat Tony has a debate with Socrates.	在我的书里,肥托尼和苏格拉底有争论
513	You can	你当然可以
514	imagine a guy from Brooklyn debating a Greek philosopher, and I'll let you guess	想象布鲁克林的一个人在辩论一个希腊哲学家我让你猜猜
515	who's gonna win the debate along these lines.	谁会赢得这场辩论?
516	So effectively, I go along these	如此有效,我走这些
517	lines, except that what I've done is very simple.	除了我所做的很简单
518	I don't have a theory in	我没有理论
519	here of antifragility, you know, people can talk about complex system however they	这里的抗脆弱,你知道, 人们可以谈论复杂的系统,不管他们
520	are.	对
521	I have a descriptive detection.	我有一个描述性检测。
522	This here, I proved very simply that I can	在这里,我证明非常简单,我可以
523	detect fragility through second-order derivative.	通过二阶衍生物检测脆弱性。
524	So in a way, what I have is	因此,在某种程度上,我拥有的是
525	more like phenomenology, which is not at the level of a theory, but something	更像是苯经学, 它不是在理论的层次,而是一些东西
526	lower, a way to map objects in order to work with a world we don't understand.	更低,一种绘制物体地图的方法以便和我们不了解的世界合作
527	So	这么说
528	in a way, I don't have a theory how things come from, but I sort of	在某种程度上,我没有理论事情是怎么来的,但我有点
529	integrated this dichotomy you have between the bottom-up, unexplainable, we	整合了您在自下而上, 无法解释的二分法, 我们
530	don't know how we do it, was one thing I'd like to mention, since there's time,	不知道我们怎么做到的我想说一件事因为有时间
531	another question, one important thing, that effectively, the longer you've been,	另一个问题,一个很重要的问题, 有效的,你越久,
532	we've been doing something that we don't understand, the longer we will do it.	我们一直在做一些我们不明白的事, 越长的时间,我们会做到这一点。
533	In	内
534	the book, I say time is the only detector fragility.	这本书,我说时间是唯一的探测器弱点。
535	Remember one thing, time is	记住一件事,时间是
536	volatility, you agree?	波动,你同意吗?
537	Time and volatility, mathematically, they all are the same,	时间和波动,数学上, 它们都是相同的,
538	disorder, time, entropy, volatility.	混乱,时间, en,波动。
539	Approximately, I call them siblings,	大约,我叫他们兄弟姐妹,
540	brothers, they're not exactly the same, but they're like twin, fraternal twin	兄弟们,他们不是完全一样,但他们就像双胞胎,兄弟般
541	brothers, okay?	兄弟们,好吗?
542	So with time, what was fragile eventually will break.	所以随着时间的流逝,脆弱的事物最终会崩溃。
543	So there's	这么说
544	very simple law, whatever is not perishable, namely an idea, will have	非常简单的法律,任何不易腐烂的, 即一个想法,将拥有
545	life expectancy that increases with time, which is shocking for technologists, but	预期寿命随时间而增加,这对科技人员来说是令人震惊的,但
546	but let me explain the rationale.	但让我解释一下理由
547	If you see a human and he's 40 years old, you can	如果你看到一个人,他40岁,你可以
548	knowing his history, okay, and he's not ill, unconditionally, that he has an	知道他的历史,好吧, 他没有生病,无条件, 他有一个
549	extra 50 years to go, you agree?	你同意吗?
550	That's mortality tables, conditional mortality	这就是死亡率表,有条件的死亡率
551	table.	表单。
552	He lives another year, okay, you know that his life expectancy has	他又活了一年,好吧,你知道他的预期寿命有
553	decreased by a little less than a year, you see?	少了一点一年,明白吗?
554	So his life expectancy decreases	所以他的寿命缩短了
555	every day he lives.	他每天活着
556	If I look at the technology, how old, all you need to know,	如果我看看技术,多老, 你需要知道的,
557	how old, 40 days, technology, a book, an idea, things that are not perishable,	多少年,40天,科技,一本书, 一个想法,一些不易腐烂的东西,
558	our genes, for example, are not our bodies, all right?	例如,我们的基因不是我们的身体,好吗?
559	How old, technology, 40	40岁,技术
560	years, very good, it has 40 years to go.	年,非常好,它还有40年。
561	Next year, 41 years, at least 41 years to	明年,41岁,至少41岁
562	go.	开始
563	So a life expectancy of technology increases every day, an idea of	因此技术的寿命每天都在延长,
564	everything, believe it or not.	什么都行,信不信由你,你应该相信
565	So this is why we have bicycles, probably will	这就是为什么我们有自行车,也许会
566	live longer than cars, cars more than planes, all right?	寿命比汽车长,汽车比飞机长,好吗?
567	And of course,	当然
568	now we know that the regular plane is better than supersonic planes, you see?	现在我们知道普通飞机比超音速飞机要好
569	And I'm talking about this here at Silicon Valley.	我在硅谷里谈这个
570	Why?	为什么?
571	Well, very simply	很简单
572	because in, and we don't understand why.	因为我们不知道为什么
573	We don't have to understand anything.	我们不需要理解任何东西。
574	Time, there's an intelligence of time that's at work there.	时间,有一个时间的智能是在那里工作。
575	A book that had	一本书,有
576	been in print for 3,000 years, in print sort of like, or at least read for 3,000	印刷了3000年或者至少读作3000年
577	years, you know, that you get in hotel rooms still, all right, would probably be	几年,你知道,你得到在酒店房间仍然, 好吧,也许
578	3,000 years, okay?	三千年,好吗?
579	Regardless of what's the latest intellectual will tell me	不管最新的知识分子告诉我什么
580	about the rationality or not rationality.	关于理性或不理性。
581	I don't believe in rationality, I believe	我不相信理性,我相信
582	in fragility, you see?	看到了吗?
583	So the, and things like, and you apply it to technology, you	所以,诸如此类的东西, 你应用到技术,你
584	can say the red car, the first red convertible car was born when?	可以说是红色汽车,第一辆红色敞篷车是何时诞生的?.
585	38个a
586	half years ago?	半年前吗?
587	It has 38 years to go, you see, approximately.	它还有38年,你看,大约。
588	But of course,	当然
589	you'd be shocked now if you see how much of what we have today resembles ancient	如果你现在看到我们今天有多少像古老的东西你会很震惊
590	days.	几天时间
591	We still use watches, all right, glasses, 3,000 years old, chairs, desks,	我们还用手表,好的,眼镜,三千岁,椅子,桌子,
592	silverware, we try to cook like our ancients did.	银器,我们要像古人一样烹饪
593	And if you had in a book a	如果你有一本书
594	picture of a kitchen from Pompeii in Italy, 2,000 year old, and it's no	意大利庞贝的厨房照片,2000岁,没有
595	different from a good Italian restaurant's kitchen, all right?	跟意大利餐馆的厨房不一样,好吗?
596	So this is	这就是
597	to tell you that there are things we don't understand in the world, but we can	告诉你,有些事情我们不明白在世界上,但我们可以
598	understand them through via either, you know, not, there's no rational means to	理解他们通过要么,你知道, 不,没有合理的手段
599	understand why people use something, a life of technology, but we can	理解为什么人们会使用某种技术但是我们可以
600	understand them via just fragility, concept fragility, via time.	理解他们只是通过脆弱,概念脆弱,通过时间。
601	So I'd like to ask a, I suppose not really, it's a separate question more than a	所以我想问一个,我想不是, 这是一个单独的问题比一个
602	follow-up, but returning to the great debate between Hayek and Keynes,	但回到哈耶克和凯恩斯的大辩论
603	especially with regard to the Great Depression, oversimplifying the way I	特别是大萧条过度简化我的方式
604	view it is that the Austrians were saying, that Hayek was saying, okay, you've	观点是,奥地利人说, 哈耶克说,好吧,你已经
605	got this cascading failure, let it fail, because systems that fail under	因为系统会失败
606	cascading failure need to be beaten out of the system.	连锁失败需要被击败出系统.
607	It's the only way it's	这是唯一的办法
608	going to learn.	要去学习。
609	And it was, you know, and the basic Austrian point of view was,	这是,你知道, 而奥地利的基本观点是,
610	we're better off in the long run, which is the long run that Keynes was	从长远来看,我们更好,这是凯恩斯的长远
611	responding to.	回应。
612	Yeah, this I agree with, because we're short of time, so I'm going to answer	是啊,我同意,因为我们时间不够所以我要回答
613	very quickly.	很快的,你应该知道
614	I see he's comparing systems.	我看他在比较系统
615	I think that it's quite	我认为这相当
616	artificial to say Keynes versus Hayek.	说凯恩斯和哈耶克
617	Keynes was not an idiot.	凯恩斯不是白痴
618	I mean, he was	我是说,他是
619	a very smart human.	一个非常聪明的人。
620	And he would think different, vastly smarter than people	他会想不同的, 比人聪明得多
621	who write for New York Times and claim that Keynes said something.	他为《纽约时报》写文章声称凯恩斯说了些什么
622	And then the	接下来
623	other thing is, and then also, of course, on the risks of the system.	当然,其他问题还有系统的风险。
624	But I also	我也一样
625	have to say that the problem is you can't suddenly stop doing things.	问题在于你不能突然停止行动
626	If you	如果你们
627	look at medicine, okay, the rule is if you're slightly ill, let things take care	看药,好吧,规矩是,如果你有小病,要小心
628	of yourself, because whatever medicine you're going to put in probably will harm	因为不管你放什么药都可能会有伤害
629	you, probabilistically a lot more than help you.	你,很可能比帮助你还要多
630	But if you have cancer, very	但如果你有癌症,非常的
631	ill, see ten doctors, not one, ten.	病,见十大夫,非一,十.
632	You get the idea?	明白了吗?
633	So what happened with	那么,发生了什么事
634	interventionism, okay, with statism intervention, over intervention, the	干预主义,好吧, 与静态主义干预, 比干预,
635	state is never there.	州永远不存在。
636	The interventionist is never there when it really needed,	干预者从不在那里当它真正需要,
637	because it needed resources.	因为它需要资源。
638	And this is what happened to us, by the way.	顺便说一句,这是发生在我们身上的事。
639	
640	the money's gone, all right?	钱不见了,好吗?
641	So it's a different problem.	所以问题不同了
642	I don't know if I can	我不知道我是否能
643	claim with this thinking to be fully against state intervention, but I would	声称这种想法完全反对国家干预, 但我会
644	say if the state needs to intervene, it got to be with extreme circumstances and	说如果国家需要干预, 它必须是极端的情况和
645	for a very temporary situation to just avoid pain, starvation and stuff like	为了避免疼痛,饥饿之类的事情
646	that.	那个
647	If I use the same nonlinear argument, reducing extreme unhappiness is	如果我用同样的非线性论点, 减少极端的不幸福是
648	different from raising happiness, two different animals.	与养育幸福不同两个不同的动物
649	We can take one more	再来一次
650	question, I guess, no?	问题,我想,不是吗?
651	We have one, we have, we started at three, so we have	我们有一个,我们已经, 我们开始在三,所以我们有
652	three minutes, no?	三分钟,不是吗?
653	So that's what I owe you, no?	这就是我欠你的,不是吗?
654	When you talk about finding fragility by just looking at the second derivative,	当你说到通过观察第二个衍生物来发现脆弱的时候,
655	like can you get some more details like the second derivative?	就像你能得到更多的细节像第二个衍生物?
656	Yes, it's very simple.	是的,很简单。
657	You take a company, all right, you lower sales by	你拿一个公司,好吧,你降低销售额
658	ten percent, they lose a hundred million dollars.	百分之十,他们损失一亿美元。
659	You lower sales by an extra ten	你少卖10块
660	percent, they lose five hundred million dollars.	他们损失了5亿美金
661	Accelerating losses, okay, it	加速损失,好,它
662	means they're going to be a lot more harmed by an adverse event than a	意思是,他们将会受到更多的伤害受到一个不利事件比一个
663	regular company.	正规公司。
664	Very simple test.	非常简单的测试。
665	It's so simple that people were ashamed of	很简单,人们感到羞愧
666	telling me I was right.	告诉我我是对的。
667	You see, very simple acceleration.	你看,非常简单的加速。
668	Take the stock	盘点一下
669	market, all right, the portfolio.	市场,所有的权利,投资组合。
670	Market's down five percent, I lose a million.	市场下跌5%,我损失了一百万。
671	Market's down ten percent, I lose five million.	市场下降了10%,我损失了500万。
672	I'm fragile.	我是脆弱的。
673	That's simple.	这很简单。
674	It's	这是
675	the same argument.	同样的论点。
676	Can you say that the market goes up ten percent?	你能说市场涨了10%吗?
677	Do I make	我做吗?
678	more than if the market went down ten percent?	比市场下跌10%还严重?
679	I'm anti-fragile.	我反佛华严.
680	It's the same	一样
681	thing with a lot of situations.	有很多情况
682	So debt brings fragility, you can measure it that	所以债务带来脆弱性,你可以衡量它
683	way.	就是这样
684	Size causes fragility, you can measure it that way.	大小造成脆弱性,你可以这样衡量它。
685	Thanks.	谢谢

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