5亿人观看《思维游戏》｜获诺贝尔奖的AI公司，到底在密谋什么
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:13 | Hi, alpha | 嗨,阿尔法 |
| 0:16 | Hello, can you help me write code I? | 你好,你能帮我写代码吗? |
| 0:20 | Was trained to answer questions | 接受过回答问题的培训 |
| 0:23 | But I'm able to learn | 但我可以学习 |
| 0:26 | That's very open-minded of you | 你这么开明 |
| 0:29 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 0:30 | I'm glad you're happy with me | 很高兴你跟我在一起很开心 |
| 0:33 | What's this guy doing? | 这家伙在干什么? |
| 0:37 | That's a developer | 那是个开发商 |
| 0:39 | What do you think he's working on? | 你觉得他在忙什么? |
展开字幕全文（1170 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hi, alpha | 嗨,阿尔法 |
| 2 | Hello, can you help me write code I? | 你好,你能帮我写代码吗? |
| 3 | Was trained to answer questions | 接受过回答问题的培训 |
| 4 | But I'm able to learn | 但我可以学习 |
| 5 | That's very open-minded of you | 你这么开明 |
| 6 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 7 | I'm glad you're happy with me | 很高兴你跟我在一起很开心 |
| 8 | What's this guy doing? | 这家伙在干什么? |
| 9 | That's a developer | 那是个开发商 |
| 10 | What do you think he's working on? | 你觉得他在忙什么? |
| 11 | That's a tough question. | 这是一个很难的问题。 |
| 12 | He might be working on a new feature a bug fix or something else | 他可能正在研究一个新功能 一个错误修复或其他东西 |
| 13 | It's quite possible | 这很可能会 |
| 14 | Yes | 对 |
| 15 | Do you see my backpack? | 你看到我的背包了吗? |
| 16 | That's a badminton racket. | 那是羽毛球大战 |
| 17 | It's a squash racket, but that's pretty close | 这是一个壁球的噪音, 但这是相当接近 |
| 18 | That's a badminton racket. | 那是羽毛球大战 |
| 19 | No, but you're not the first person to make that mistake | 不 但你不是第一个犯那个错误的人 |
| 20 | AI a technology that has been advancing at breakneck speed artificial intelligence is all the rage | 人工智能 人工智能 以突破性的速度发展起来的技术 就是愤怒 |
| 21 | I'm are now raising alarms. | 我现在在发出警报 |
| 22 | It is definitely concerning. | 这绝对是有关。 |
| 23 | This is an AI armchair | 这是人工智能臂椅 |
| 24 | We don't know how this is all gonna shake out, but it's clear something is happening | 我们不知道这一切会如何动摇, 但事情显然正在发生 |
| 25 | Kind of restless | 有点不安 |
| 26 | Trying to build a GI is the most exciting journey in my opinion that humans have ever embarked on | 试图建造一个GI 是最令人兴奋的旅程 我认为人类曾经开始 |
| 27 | If you're really gonna take that seriously, there isn't a lot of time | 如果你真的要认真对待, 时间不多了 |
| 28 | Life's very short | 人生很短暂 |
| 29 | my whole life's goal is to solve artificial general intelligence and | 我一生的目标是解决人工一般智能和 |
| 30 | On the way use AI as the ultimate tool to solve all the world's most complex scientific problems. | 途中使用AI作为最终工具,解决世界上所有最复杂的科学问题. |
| 31 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 32 | Think that's bigger than the internet. | 觉得比互联网还大 |
| 33 | I think that's bigger than mobile. | 我认为这比移动更大。 |
| 34 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 35 | Think it's more like the advent of electricity or fire | 更像是电或火的出现 |
| 36 | I think this is a hugely critical moment for humanity | 我觉得这对人类来说是一个非常关键的时刻 |
| 37 | It feels like we're on the cusp of some incredible things happening | 感觉我们正忙着一些不可思议的事情 |
| 38 | AGI is pretty close. | AGI已经很接近了 |
| 39 | I think | 我觉得 |
| 40 | This is the moment I've been living my whole life or | 这是我一生的一刻 |
| 41 | I've always been fascinated by the mind | 我总是迷恋于心灵 |
| 42 | So I'd set my heart on studying neuroscience because I wanted to get inspiration from the brain for AI | 所以我把心放在研究神经科学上 因为我想从大脑中为AI获得灵感 |
| 43 | I remember asking damage. | 我记得我问损害。 |
| 44 | What's the end game? | 到底玩什么游戏? |
| 45 | You know, so you're gonna come here and you're gonna study neuroscience and you're gonna get maybe get a PhD if you work hard | 你知道,所以你要去 在这里,你要去学习 神经科学,你会得到一个博士 如果你努力工作 |
| 46 | And he said, you know, I want to be able to solve AI I want to be able to solve intelligence | 他说,你知道,我想 能够解决AI 我想能够解决智能 |
| 47 | the human brain is the only existence proof we have perhaps in the entire universe that general intelligence is possible at all and | 人类的大脑是唯一存在的证据 我们也许在整个宇宙中 |
| 48 | I thought someone in this building should be interested in general intelligence like I am and | 我觉得这栋楼里的人 应该对一般情报感兴趣 |
| 49 | Then Shane's name popped up. | 后来谢恩的名字突然冒出来. |
| 50 | Our next speaker today is Shane leg | 我们今天的下一个发言者是Shane leg |
| 51 | He's from New Zealand where he trained in math and classical ballet our machines actually becoming more intelligent | 他来自新西兰 在那里,他训练 数学和古典芭蕾 我们的机器实际上变得更加聪明 |
| 52 | Some people say yes, some people say no, it's not really clear. | 有些人说"是",有些人说"不",这不太清楚. |
| 53 | We know they're getting a lot faster at doing computations | 我们知道他们计算的速度越来越快 |
| 54 | But are we actually going forwards in terms of general intelligence? | 但是,我们实际上是在一般情报方面前进吗? |
| 55 | We were both obsessed with a GI | 我们都迷上了GI |
| 56 | Artificial general intelligence. | 人工总智. |
| 57 | So today I'm going to be talking about | 今天我要说的是 |
| 58 | Different approaches to building a GI with my colleague. | 与同事建立GI的不同方法. |
| 59 | Demis has obvious | 德米斯很明显 |
| 60 | We're looking at ways to bring in ideas from theoretical neuroscience | 我们正在研究从理论神经科学中引入思想的方法 |
| 61 | I felt like we were the keepers of a secret that no one else knew | 我觉得我们是一个秘密的守护者 没有人知道 |
| 62 | Shane and I knew no one in academia would be supportive of what we were doing AI was almost an embarrassing | Shane和我知道学术界没有人会支持我们做的AI 几乎是一个尴尬的事情 |
| 63 | Word to use in academic circles, right? | 学术圈里用的话,对吧? |
| 64 | If you if you said you're working on AI then you clearly weren't a serious scientist | 如果你说你在做人工智能 那你显然不是个严肃的科学家 |
| 65 | So I convinced Shane the right way to do it would be to start a company. | 所以我说服Shane的正确方法 就是成立公司 |
| 66 | Okay, we're gonna try to do | 好吧,我们要尝试做 |
| 67 | Artificial general intelligence it may not even be possible. | 人工一般情报甚至不可能。 |
| 68 | We're not quite sure how are we gonna do it? | 我们不确定我们该怎么做? |
| 69 | But we have some ideas of the kind of approaches | 但是,我们有一些想法 那种方法 |
| 70 | huge amounts of money huge amounts of risk | 巨大的风险 |
| 71 | lots and lots of compute | 大量的计算 |
| 72 | and | 和 |
| 73 | If we pull this off, it'll be the biggest thing ever, right? | 如果我们成功,这将是有史以来最大的事情,对不对? |
| 74 | That is a very hard thing for a typical investor to to put their money on it's almost like buying a lottery ticket | 这对典型的投资者来说是很难做到的 把钱放在上面 就像买彩票一样 |
| 75 | I'm gonna be speaking about | 我要说的是 |
| 76 | systems neuroscience and | 系统神经科学和 |
| 77 | How it might be used to help us build a GI finding initial funding for this was very hard | 如何利用它来帮助我们建立一个GI 找到这个的初始资金是非常困难的 |
| 78 | We're gonna solve all of intelligence. | 我们要解决所有的情报问题 |
| 79 | You can imagine some of the looks I got when we were pitching that around | 你可以想象一些我的样子 当我们在投球 |
| 80 | So I'm a VC and I I look at about seven hundred to a thousand projects a year and I fund | 所以,我是一个VC,我看 每年约700到1000个项目 我资助 |
| 81 | Literally one percent of those about eight eight projects a year | 大约一年八个项目的百分之一 |
| 82 | So that means 99% of the time you're in no mode. | 这意味着你99%的时间没有模式。 |
| 83 | Wait a minute | 单 |
| 84 | I'm telling you this is the most important thing of all time giving you all this build-up | 我告诉你,这是最重要的 事情给你这一切积聚 |
| 85 | You the house family it connects with the brain why the times right now and then you're asking me | 你家里的人 它与大脑相连 为什么现在,然后你问我 |
| 86 | But what's your power you're gonna make money? | 但你能赚多少钱? |
| 87 | What's your product? | 什么是你的产品? |
| 88 | It's like | 这就像 |
| 89 | 所以说,Prosaic和 | |
| 90 | Question, you know | 问题,你知道的 |
| 91 | You'll be listening to what I'm saying | 你会听我的话 |
| 92 | We needed investors who aren't necessarily gonna invest because they think it's the best investment decision | 我们需要投资人 不一定会投资 因为他们认为这是最好的投资决定 |
| 93 | They're probably going to invest because they just think it's really cool | 他们可能要投资,因为他们只是觉得这很酷 |
| 94 | He's the Silicon Valley version of the man behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz | 他是奥兹巫师幕后人物的硅谷版本 |
| 95 | 我们给了你PayPal Facebook YouTube和Yelp很多 | |
| 96 | If everyone sees eggs Peter Thiel suspects that the opposite of eggs is quite possibly true | 如果每个人都看到鸡蛋 彼得・提尔怀疑 鸡蛋的相反可能是真的 |
| 97 | So Peter Thiel was our first big investor | 彼得·提尔是我们第一个大投资者 |
| 98 | But he insisted that we come to Silicon Valley because that was the only place we could there would be the talent and we could | 但他坚持要我们来硅谷 因为这是我们唯一能拥有的 才华和才能的地方 |
| 99 | build that kind of company | 建立这样的公司 |
| 100 | But I was pretty adamant we should be in London because I think London's an amazing city | 但我非常坚决地认为 我们应该在伦敦 因为我认为伦敦是一个惊人的城市 |
| 101 | Plus I knew there were really amazing people trained at Cambridge and Oxford and UCL in Silicon Valley | 而且我知道剑桥大学和牛津大学 以及硅谷大学洛杉矶分校 都有很棒的人 |
| 102 | Everybody's sounding a company every year and then it doesn't work | 每个人都在吹响一个公司 每年,然后它没有工作 |
| 103 | Chuck here and you start something new that does not is not conducive to a long-term research | 查克在这里,你开始一些新的 不利于长期研究的东西 |
| 104 | challenge | 挑战 |
| 105 | So we were totally an outlier for him. | 所以我们对他来说是外人 |
| 106 | All right, everyone welcome to deep mind | 好了,大家欢迎来到深思熟虑 |
| 107 | So what is our mission? | 我们的任务是什么? |
| 108 | we summarize it as | 我们总结为: |
| 109 | You know deep mind's mission is to build the world's first general learning machine | 你知道深智的使命是建造世界上第一台普通的学习机器 |
| 110 | So we always stress the word general learning here the key things our mission was to build an AGI an artificial general intelligence | 所以,我们总是强调普通学习这个词 我们的使命是建立人工智能 |
| 111 | And so that means that we need a system which is is general. | 所以这意味着我们需要一个普遍的制度。 |
| 112 | It doesn't learn to do one specific thing | 它不会学做一件事 |
| 113 | That's a really key part of human intelligence. | 这是人类智力的关键 |
| 114 | We can learn to do many many things | 我们可以学会做很多事情 |
| 115 | It's gonna cost me a lot of hard work | 这需要我付出很多努力 |
| 116 | But one of the things that will keep me up at night is to not waste this opportunity to you know | 但晚上能让我保持清醒的一件事 就是不要浪费这个机会 |
| 117 | To really make a difference here and have a big impact the world | 真正能改变世界 影响世界 |
| 118 | The first people that came and joined deep mind already believed in the dream | 第一批来加入深思熟虑的人 已经相信梦想 |
| 119 | But this was I think one of the first times they found a place full of other dreamers | 但我认为他们第一次 发现一个充满其他梦想者的地方 |
| 120 | We collected this Manhattan project if you like together to solve AI in the first two years | 我们收集了这个曼哈顿项目 如果你喜欢一起解决AI的头两年 |
| 121 | We were in total stealth mode and so we couldn't say to anyone. | 我们处于完全隐形状态 所以不能告诉任何人 |
| 122 | What were we doing or where we worked? | 我们在做什么 或者我们在哪里工作? |
| 123 | It was all quite vague. | 这一切都相当模糊。 |
| 124 | It had no public presence at all | 它根本没有公开的存在 |
| 125 | You couldn't look at a website the office was at a secret location when we would interview people in those early days | 你不能看一个网站 办公室在一个秘密地点 当我们会采访的人 在早期 |
| 126 | They would show up very nervously. | 他们会非常紧张地出现 |
| 127 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 128 | Had at least one candidate who said I just messaged my wife to tell her exactly where I'm going | 至少有一位候选人说我刚刚给妻子发了信息 告诉她我要去哪儿 |
| 129 | Just in case this turns out to be some kind of horrible scam and I'm gonna get kidnapped | 以防万一,我被绑架了 |
| 130 | But my favorite new person who's an investor is what we're working on for a year is Elon Musk | 但我最喜欢的投资者新人 就是我们一年来的工作 |
| 131 | So for those who don't know it's what he looks like and he hadn't really thought much about AI till we chatted | 所以对于不知道他长什么样子的人来说 他一直没想过AI |
| 132 | His mission is to die on Mars or something, but not an impact | 他的任务是死在火星上什么的 但不是撞击 |
| 133 | We made some big decisions about how we were going to approach building AI | 我们做了一些大决定 如何接近AI。 |
| 134 | This is a reinforcement learning setup | 这是一个强化学习设置 |
| 135 | This is the kind of setup that we think about when we're building when we say we're building, you know an AI agent | 我们说要建楼的时候 就会想到这种布局 |
| 136 | There's basically the agent which is the AI and then there's the environment that it's interactive | 基本上就是人工智能,然后是交互环境 |
| 137 | We decided that games as long as you're very disciplined about how you use them are the perfect training ground for AI development | 我们决定只要你对如何使用游戏有很强的纪律 游戏就是开发AI的绝佳训练场地 |
| 138 | We wanted to try to create one algorithm that could be trained up to play several dozen different Atari games | 我们想创造一个算法 可以训练 玩数十个不同的Atari游戏 |
| 139 | So just like a human you have to use the same the same brain to play all the games | 所以就像人类一样,你必须用同样的大脑来玩游戏 |
| 140 | You can think of it that you provide the agent with the cartridge and you say okay | 你可以想到,你提供代理 与弹匣,你说好 |
| 141 | Imagine you're born into that world with that cartridge and you just get to interact with the pixels and see the score | 想象一下,你出生在那个世界上 带着那个弹匣,你只要 与像素互动,看到比分 |
| 142 | What what what can you do? | 你能怎么办? |
| 143 | So what you're gonna do is take your Q function QK | 所以,你要做的是 把你的Q功能QK |
| 144 | Q learning is one of the oldest methods for reinforcement learning and what we did was combine | Q学习是最古老的强化学习方法之一 我们所做的就是结合 |
| 145 | reinforcement learning with deep learning within one system | 在一个系统内通过深入学习加强学习 |
| 146 | No one had ever combined those two things together at scale to do anything impressive and we needed to prove out this thesis | 从来没有人把这两件事结合起来 做任何令人印象深刻的事 我们需要证明这个理论 |
| 147 | We tried doing pong as the first game. | 我们尝试做乒乓球 作为第一场比赛。 |
| 148 | It seemed like the simplest it hasn't been told | 看起来最简单的是没有被告知 |
| 149 | Anything about what it's controlling or what it's supposed to do | 任何关于它控制什么 或它应该做什么 |
| 150 | All it knows is that score is good and it has to learn what the kids controls do and build everything for sort of from first principles | 它只知道分数是好的,它必须学习 孩子们控制着什么 并且从第一原理来构建一切 |
| 151 | It wasn't really working | 没用的 |
| 152 | I was just saying to like shame. | 我只是说喜欢羞耻。 |
| 153 | Maybe we're just wrong and we can't even do pong | 也许我们错了,我们甚至不能做乒乓球 |
| 154 | it was a bit nerve-racking thinking how far we had to go if we were going to really build a | 想想如果我们真的要建一个 |
| 155 | Generally intelligent system and it felt like it was time to give up and move on | 一般的智能系统 感觉是时候放弃 继续前进 |
| 156 | and then suddenly | 然后突然间 |
| 157 | Got our first point | 得到了我们的第一个点 |
| 158 | You know, and then was like this random | 你知道,然后是这样的随机 |
| 159 | No, no, it's really getting a point now | 不,不,这真的有道理了 |
| 160 | Was really exciting that this thing that previously couldn't even figure out how to move a paddle had suddenly been able to totally get it | 令人兴奋的是,这个以前连 如何移动桨都弄不清的东西 突然能够完全得到它 |
| 161 | Right, then it was getting a few points and then it won its first game and then three months later | 对,然后得到几分,然后赢得了第一场比赛,三个月后 |
| 162 | No human could beat it | 没有人能打败它 |
| 163 | You hadn't told it the rules how to get the score nothing and you just had to maximize the score and it goes away | 你没有告诉它 规则如何得到的分数 什么,你只需要最大化的分数,它走了 |
| 164 | It does it this is the first time anyone had done this end-to-end learning. | 这是第一次有人做这种端到端的学习。 |
| 165 | Okay, so | 好吧,这样吧 |
| 166 | We have this working quite a general way now. | 我们现在的工作方式相当笼统。 |
| 167 | Let's try another game | 我们再试试看 |
| 168 | So then we try to break out at the beginning after a hundred games. | 然后我们试图在100场比赛之后的开头突围。 |
| 169 | The agent is not very good | 经纪人不好 |
| 170 | It's missing the ball most of the time | 经常缺球 |
| 171 | But it's time to get the hang of the idea that the bat should go towards the ball now after 300 games | 但是现在该是把300场比赛后 球杆应该朝球的方向走去的时机了 |
| 172 | It's about as good as any human can play this | 这跟人类玩的一样好 |
| 173 | We thought that's pretty cool | 我们觉得这很酷 |
| 174 | But we left the system playing for another 200 games and it did this amazing thing | 但是我们离开系统再玩200场比赛 它做了这个惊人的事情 |
| 175 | It found the optimal strategy was to dig a tunnel around the side and put the ball around the back of the wall | 它发现最佳的策略就是在侧面挖个隧道 把球放在墙后 |
| 176 | Finally the agent is actually achieving what you thought it would achieve. | 最后,特工正在实现你所认为的。 |
| 177 | That is a great feeling, right? | 感觉很棒,对吧? |
| 178 | Like I mean when we do research that is the best we can hope for | 我的意思是,当我们做 研究,这是我们最好的希望 |
| 179 | We started generalizing to 50 games and we basically created a recipe | 我们开始概括到50场比赛 我们基本上创造了一个配方 |
| 180 | We could just take a game that we have never seen before | 我们可以玩个我们从未见过的游戏 |
| 181 | We would run the algorithm on that and the QN could train itself from scratch | 我们会运行算法 和QN可以从头训练自己 |
| 182 | Achieving human level or sometimes better than human level. | 达到人的水平,或有时比人的水平更好. |
| 183 | We didn't build it to play any of them | 我们建造它不是为了演戏 |
| 184 | We could just give it a bunch of games and would figure it out for itself and | 我们可以只是给它 一堆游戏, 并会自己想出来 |
| 185 | And that there was something quite magical in that. | 里面有很神奇的东西 |
| 186 | Suddenly you had something that would respond and learn whatever situation | 突然间,你有些东西可以回应 和学习任何情况 |
| 187 | It was parachuted into it. | 它是降落伞在里面。 |
| 188 | That was like a huge huge breakthrough | 这就像一个巨大的突破 |
| 189 | It was in many respects the first example of any kind of thing you could call a general intelligence | 在许多方面,这是你称之为一般情报的第一个例子 |
| 190 | Although we were well funded startup holding us back was not enough compute power. | 虽然我们的启动资金充裕 阻碍我们 没有足够的计算能力。 |
| 191 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 192 | Realized that this would accelerate our timescale to a joy massively. | 认识到这将把我们的时间范围大大加快到欢乐的程度。 |
| 193 | I used to see damage quite frequently. | 我以前经常看到损坏 |
| 194 | We'd have lunch and he did | 我们吃午饭,他也吃 |
| 195 | say to me that he had | 对我说他有 |
| 196 | Two companies that were involved in in buying deep mind and he didn't know which one to go with | 两家公司参与购买 深智,他不知道 与哪一个 |
| 197 | The issue was would any commercial company? | 问题是是否有任何商业公司? |
| 198 | Appreciate the real importance of the research and give the research time | 赞赏研究的真正重要性,并给研究时间 |
| 199 | To come to fruition and not be breathing down their necks saying we want some kind of commercial benefit from this | 说我们要从商业上得到好处 |
| 200 | Google has bought deep mind for a reported 400 million pounds making the artificial intelligence firm | Google已经为4亿英镑的人工智能公司 购买了深思熟虑 |
| 201 | It's largest European acquisition so far. | 这是迄今为止欧洲最大的收购. |
| 202 | The company was founded by | 公司成立于 |
| 203 | 收购后37岁的企业家Demis Hasibis | |
| 204 | I started mentoring and spending time with Demis and just listening to him | 我开始指导 和Demis一起度过时光 并且只是听他的 |
| 205 | And this is a person who? | 这个人是谁? |
| 206 | Fundamentally is a scientist and a natural scientist | 基本上是一个科学家和一个自然科学家 |
| 207 | He wants science to solve every problem in the world that he believes it can do so | 他想让科学解决世界上所有他认为可以解决的问题 |
| 208 | That's not a normal person you find in a tech company | 你在科技公司找到的不是正常人 |
| 209 | We were able to join Google but run independently in London build our culture | 我们可以加入Google 但在伦敦独立运行 建设我们的文化 |
| 210 | Which is optimized for breakthroughs and not deal with products do pure research | 为了突破而优化 而不处理产品 |
| 211 | Our investors didn't want to sell but we decided that this was the best thing for the mission | 我们的投资者不想卖 但是我们决定 这对任务来说是最好的 |
| 212 | In many senses we were under selling in terms of value before it more mature than you could have sold it for a lot of money | 从很多意义上来说,在它更成熟之前,我们一直在以价值出售它,而你本来可以为了很多钱来出售它。 |
| 213 | And the reason is because there's no time to waste | 原因是没有时间浪费 |
| 214 | There's so many things that gotta be cracked | 有很多事情要解决 |
| 215 | While the brain still in gear, you know, I'm still alive. | 大脑还在运转,你知道,我还活着。 |
| 216 | There's all these things that gotta be done | 有这么多事情要做 |
| 217 | So you haven't got I mean how many how many billions would you trade for another five years of life? | 所以你没有我意思是,你还要用多少亿来换取五年的生命? |
| 218 | You know to do what you what you what you set out to do | 做你该做的事 |
| 219 | Okay, all of a sudden we've got this massive scale compute available to us. | 突然间我们有了这个大规模的计算 |
| 220 | What can we do with that? | 我们该怎么办? |
| 221 | Go is the pinnacle of board games | Go是棋盘游戏的顶点 |
| 222 | It's the most complex game ever devised by man | 这是人类最复杂的游戏 |
| 223 | There are more possible board configurations in the game of go then there are atoms in the universe | 游戏中的棋盘配置更多,宇宙中原子也更多 |
| 224 | Go is the holy grail of artificial intelligence | 吴是人工智能的圣杯 |
| 225 | For many years people have looked at this game and they've thought wow, this is just too hard | 多年来人们一直在看这个游戏, 他们一直认为哇,这太难了 |
| 226 | Everything we've ever tried in AI | 我们在人工智能中尝试过的一切 |
| 227 | It just falls over when you try the game of go and so that's why it feels like a real litmus test of progress | 当你尝试了游戏,它就掉下来了 所以它感觉就像一个真正的进步试金石 |
| 228 | We had just bought deep mind | 我们刚刚深思熟虑 |
| 229 | They were working on reinforcement learning and they were the world's experts in games | 他们正在加强学习,他们是世界游戏专家 |
| 230 | And so when they introduced the idea that they could beat the top level go players in a game | 所以当他们提出一个想法, 他们可以击败顶级 在游戏中玩家 |
| 231 | It was thought to be | 这被认为是 |
| 232 | Incomputable I thought well, that's pretty interesting | 无可挑剔,我觉得很好,这很有趣 |
| 233 | Ultimate next step is to play the legendary Lisa doll in just over two weeks a | 接下来的最后一步是在两周内 演奏传奇的丽莎娃娃 |
| 234 | Match like no other is about to get underway in South Korea. | 比赛没有其他比赛 在韩国即将开始。 |
| 235 | Lisa doll is getting ready to rumble | 丽萨娃娃要开始摇摆了 |
| 236 | Lisa doll is probably one of the greatest players of the last decade. | 丽莎娃娃可能是过去十年最伟大的球员之一. |
| 237 | I describe him as the Roger Federer of dough. | 我把他形容为钱的罗杰费德勒 |
| 238 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 239 | Created who represent all of Korean society the top go players and | 创造出一个代表韩国社会的人 |
| 240 | Then we have Demis and a great engineering team | 然后我们有了Demis和一个伟大的工程团队 |
| 241 | He's very famous for very creative | 他非常有创造力 |
| 242 | fighting play | 战斗游戏 |
| 243 | So this could be difficult for us. | 所以这对我们来说可能很困难。 |
| 244 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 245 | Figured Lisa doll is gonna beat these guys, but they'll make a good showing good for a start-up. | 没想到Lisa娃娃会打败这些家伙 但他们的首发效果不错 |
| 246 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 247 | Went over to the technical group and they said let me show you how our algorithm works | 我去了技术组 他们说让我告诉你我们的算法如何运作 |
| 248 | If you step through the actual game and see kind of an alpha go things the way we start off from training | 如果你走进实际的游戏 并看到一种阿尔法去的东西 我们从训练开始的方式 |
| 249 | Alpha go is by showing it a hundred thousand games that strong amateurs have played and we first initially get alpha go to mimic | Alpha去是展示十万场 强大的业余爱好者玩的游戏 我们首先让Alpha去模仿 |
| 250 | The human player and then through reinforcement learning it plays against different versions itself many millions of times and then some myths errors | 人类玩家,然后通过强化学习 玩对不同的版本本身 无数次,然后一些神话错误 |
| 251 | This is interesting you're right folks you're gonna see history made | 这很有趣,你是对的人 你会看到历史的形成 |
| 252 | So the game starts he's really concentrating he really is | 所以比赛开始 他真的集中精神了 |
| 253 | That's a very that's a very surprising move I | 这是一个非常令人惊讶的举动,我 |
| 254 | Think we've seen an original move here | 以为我们见过一个原始的举动 |
| 255 | Yeah, that's an exciting move. | 是啊,这是一个令人兴奋的举动。 |
| 256 | I like most like professional commentators almost unanimously said that not a single human player would have chosen | 我最喜欢专业评论家 几乎一致地说 没有一个人类选手会选择 |
| 257 | move37 | 移动37 |
| 258 | So I actually had a poke around in alpha go to see what alpha go thought and alpha go actually agreed with that assessment | 所以,实际上我有一个戳 周围的alpha 去看看什么alpha去思考 和alpha去 实际上同意的评估 |
| 259 | Alpha go said there was a one in ten thousand probability that move 37 would have been played by a human player | Alpha去说万分之一的概率 移动37会是一个人类玩家玩的 |
| 260 | The game of go has been studied for thousands of years and | 这个游戏已经研究了几千年了 |
| 261 | Alpha go discovered something completely new | 阿尔法去发现一些全新的东西 |
| 262 | He resigned Lisa. | 他辞去了丽莎的职务. |
| 263 | It all was just resigned. | 这一切都只是辞职。 |
| 264 | He's beaten | 他被打过 |
| 265 | Versus machine a computer just came out the victor | Versus机器 一台电脑刚从胜利者那里出来 |
| 266 | Google put its deep mind team to the test against one of the brightest minds in the world and won | Google让自己深思熟虑的团队 面对世界上最聪明的智商之一并赢了 |
| 267 | That's when we realized the deep mind people knew what they were doing and to pay attention to reinforcement learning as they had invented | 那时,我们意识到人们深思熟虑地知道他们在做什么 并关注强化学习 他们发明 |
| 268 | Based on that experience | 基于这一经验 |
| 269 | Alpha go that's better and better and better and they had a little chart of how much better they were getting and I said | 阿尔法去,更好,更好,更好 他们有一个小图表 他们得到了多少更好,我说 |
| 270 | When does this stop and Emma said when we beat the Chinese guy the top rated player in the world? | 艾玛说当我们击败中国人时 什么时候会停下来? |
| 271 | I think we will see alpha go pushing through there alpha go is ahead quite a bit | 我想我们会看到alpha去 推过那里 arpha去 前面有点 |
| 272 | About halfway through the first game the best player in the world | 差不多是第一场比赛的中途 世界上最好的球员 |
| 273 | Was not doing so well. | 情况不妙 |
| 274 | What can black do here? | 黑色能在这里做什么? |
| 275 | Looks difficult and at a critical moment | 看起来很困难,在关键时刻 |
| 276 | The Chinese government ordered the feed cut off | 中国政府下令切断饲料 |
| 277 | It was at that moment. | 那是在那一刻。 |
| 278 | We were telling the world that something new had arrived on earth | 我们告诉全世界 新的东西已经传到人间 |
| 279 | In the 1950s when Russia's Sputnik satellite was launched | 1950年代俄罗斯发射人造卫星 |
| 280 | It changed the course of history it is a challenge that America must meet to survive in the space age | 它改变了历史,这是美国在太空时代生存必须面对的挑战 |
| 281 | This has been called the Sputnik moment | 这叫做人造卫星的时刻 |
| 282 | The Sputnik moment created a massive reaction in the US in terms of funding for science and engineering | 太空人造卫星的瞬间 在美国对科学和工程的融资 产生了巨大的反应 |
| 283 | And particularly of space technology for China alpha go was the wake-up call | 特别是中国的航天技术 是警钟 |
| 284 | the Sputnik moment | 人造卫星时刻 |
| 285 | It launched an AI space race | 它发动了AI太空竞赛 |
| 286 | We had this huge idea that worked and now the whole world knows | 我们有一个巨大的想法,现在 全世界都知道 |
| 287 | It's always easier to land on the moon if someone's already landed there | 如果有人已经降落在月球上 总是更容易降落 |
| 288 | It is going to matter who builds AI and how it gets built. | 谁是人工智能的建造者,以及人工智能的建造方式都很重要。 |
| 289 | I always feel that pressure | 我总觉得压力很大 |
| 290 | There's been a big chain of events that followed on from all of the excitement of alpha go | 发生了一连串大事件 从所有兴奋的阿尔法去 |
| 291 | When we played against Lisa doll | 当我们玩丽萨娃娃 |
| 292 | We actually had a system that had been trained on human data on all of the millions of games that have been played by human experts | 我们实际上有一个系统, 已经训练了人类数据 在所有的数百万游戏 由人类专家播放 |
| 293 | We eventually found a new algorithm a much more elegant approach to the whole system | 我们最终找到了一个新的算法 一个更优雅的方法 整个系统 |
| 294 | which actually stripped out all of the human knowledge and just started completely from scratch and | 完全从零开始 |
| 295 | That became a project which we called alpha zero zero meaning having zero human knowledge in the loop | 这成为了一个我们称之为alpha 零零的项目 意思是人类在循环中没有知识 |
| 296 | Instead of learning from human data it learned from its own games | 而不是从人类数据中学习,而是从自己的游戏中学习 |
| 297 | So actually became its own teacher | 所以实际上成了自己的老师 |
| 298 | Alpha zero is an experiment in how little knowledge can we put into these systems and yet? | 阿尔法零是一个实验, 说明我们有多少 知识可以投入到这些系统 和现在? |
| 299 | How quickly and how efficiently can they learn and the other thing is alpha zero doesn't have any rules learn through experience | 他们能有多快和多高效地学习 另一件事是alpha 0 没有任何规则通过经验学习 |
| 300 | The next stage was to make it more general so that it could play any two-player game | 接下来的阶段是让游戏更加概括,使其可以玩任何双人游戏 |
| 301 | Things like chess and in fact any kind of two-player perfect information game. | 象象棋之类的东西,事实上是任何一种双玩家完美的信息游戏. |
| 302 | It's going really well. | 进展顺利 |
| 303 | It's going really really well | 进展真的很好 |
| 304 | Alpha go used to take a few months to train, but alpha zero could start in the morning playing completely randomly | 阿尔法过去训练要几个月, 但阿尔法零可以在早上开始 完全随机演奏 |
| 305 | And then by t be a superhuman level and by dinner. | 然后是超人级和晚餐 |
| 306 | It would be the strongest chess entity there's ever been | 这将是有史以来最强的棋子实体 |
| 307 | It's amazing. | 不可思议. |
| 308 | It's discovered its own attacking style. | 它发现了自己的攻击风格. |
| 309 | Yeah to take on you know the current level of defense | 是啊,你知道现在的防御水平 |
| 310 | I mean, I never my wildest dreams. | 我从来没有做过最疯狂的梦 |
| 311 | I agree actually I was not expecting that either and I it's fun for me | 我同意,其实我也没想到会这样 而且我也很开心 |
| 312 | I think I mean it's inspired me to to get back into chess again because it's cool to see that there's even more depth than | 我想我的意思是,它激励我再次回到棋局,因为看到有比它更深的深度很酷。 |
| 313 | we thought in chess I | 我们想在棋子上 |
| 314 | Actually got into AI through games | 实际上通过游戏进入了AI |
| 315 | Initially it was board games. | 最初是棋盘游戏. |
| 316 | I was thinking how is my brain doing this like what is it doing I? | 我在想我的大脑怎么会这样? |
| 317 | Was very aware of that from a very young age | 从小就非常清楚这一点 |
| 318 | So I've always been thinking about thinking | 所以我一直想着 |
| 319 | The British and American chess champions meet to begin a series of matches | 英美围棋冠军相遇 开始一系列比赛 |
| 320 | Playing alongside them of the cream of Britain and America's youngest players Demis Hasabis is representing Britain | 和他们一起玩 英国和美国最年轻的球员 戴米斯・哈萨比斯代表英国 |
| 321 | When Demis was for he first showed an aptitude for chess | 当戴米斯为他而战时,他第一次表现出象棋的能力 |
| 322 | By the time he was six he became London under-eight champion | 到了他六岁时,他成为了伦敦八岁以下冠军 |
| 323 | My parents were very interesting and unusual actually I probably described them as quite bohemian | 我父母非常有趣和不寻常 其实我可能把他们描述成 相当波希米亚人 |
| 324 | My father was a singer-songwriter when he was younger and Bob Dylan was his hero | 我父亲年轻时是歌手兼歌手 鲍勃·迪伦是他的英雄 |
| 325 | We used to go to campsites and then go for maybe four days just because it was good | 我们曾经去露营,然后去 也许四天 只是因为它很好 |
| 326 | What is it that you like about this game? | 你喜欢这个游戏吗? |
| 327 | Just a good thinking game | 只是一个很好的思考游戏 |
| 328 | At the time I was the second highest rated chess player in the world for my age | 当时我是世界排名第二的棋手 |
| 329 | But although I was on track to be a professional chess player | 虽然我是职业棋手 |
| 330 | I thought that was what I was gonna do no matter how much I loved the game | 我以为无论我多么热爱这场比赛 我都会这么做 |
| 331 | It was incredibly stressful | 压力很大 |
| 332 | Definitely was not fun and games for me | 对我来说绝对不是好玩和游戏 |
| 333 | my parents used to you know, I get very upset when I lost the game and and you know angry if I forgot something and | 我爸妈以前很生气,我输了游戏,你就会生气 |
| 334 | Because it was quite high stakes for them, you know, it was cost a lot of money to go to these tournaments | 因为对他们来说 赌注很高 你知道 参加这些比赛要花很多钱 |
| 335 | And my parents didn't have much money | 我父母没多少钱 |
| 336 | My parents thought you know, if you're interested in being a chess professional, this is really important. | 我的父母认为你知道, 如果你有兴趣成为一名国际象棋专业, 这是非常重要的。 |
| 337 | It's like your exams. | 这就像你的考试。 |
| 338 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 339 | Was at this International Chess Tournament Lichtenstein up in the mountains | 在山上参加国际象棋锦标赛 |
| 340 | And we were in this huge church hall | 我们在这座巨大的教堂大厅里 |
| 341 | With you know hundreds of international chess players | 你认识上百个国际棋手 |
| 342 | And I was playing the ex Danish champion | 我在扮演前丹麦冠军 |
| 343 | Must have been in his 30s probably | 大概30多岁了 |
| 344 | In those days there was a long time limit the games could literally last all day | 在那段时间里 游戏会持续一整天 |
| 345 | We were into our 10th hour | 我们进入了第10小时 |
| 346 | And we were in this incredibly unusual ending | 我们处在一个不寻常的结局中 |
| 347 | I think it should be a draw | 我觉得应该是平局 |
| 348 | But he kept on trying to win for hours | 但他一直想赢几个小时 |
| 349 | Finally he tried one last cheap trick | 最后,他试了最后一个便宜的把戏 |
| 350 | All I had to do was give away my Queen then it would be stalemate | 我要做的就是把王后送走,然后就陷入僵局 |
| 351 | But I was so tired. | 但我太累了,我有点累了。 |
| 352 | I thought it was inevitable. | 我认为这是不可避免的。 |
| 353 | I was gonna be checkmated and | 我本来要被检查的 |
| 354 | so I resigned he | 所以我辞去了他 |
| 355 | Jumped up just start laughing | 跳起来就笑了 |
| 356 | And he went | 然后他离开了 |
| 357 | Why have you resigned? | 你为什么辞职? |
| 358 | It's a draw and he immediately with a flourish sort of showed me the drawing move. | 这是一张画,他马上给我看了画术 |
| 359 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 360 | Felt so sick to my stomach | 感觉好恶心 |
| 361 | It made me think the rest of that tournament. | 这让我想起了比赛的其余部分 |
| 362 | It's like are we wasting our minds? | 这就像我们在浪费我们的思想? |
| 363 | Is this the best use of all this brain power? | 这是这些脑力的最佳用途吗? |
| 364 | Everybody's collectively in that building if you could somehow plug in those 300 brains into a system | 如果你能把300个大脑插进一个系统里 所有人都在大楼里 |
| 365 | You might have solved cancer with that level of brain power | 你可能用大脑的能量解决癌症 |
| 366 | This intuitive feeling came over me that although I love chess, this is not the right thing to spend my whole life on | 这种直觉让我觉得 虽然我爱下棋,但这不是我一生的正确之处 |
| 367 | Demis and myself our plan was always to fill deep mind with some of the most brilliant scientists in the world | 德米斯和我 计划总是让世界上最聪明的科学家们 深思熟虑 |
| 368 | So we have the human brains necessary to create an AGI system | 因此我们拥有创造AGI系统所需的人脑 |
| 369 | By definition the G and AGI is about generality | 顾名思义,G和AGI是泛泛的 |
| 370 | What I imagine is being able to talk to an agent the agent can talk back and | 我想象的就是能够和经纪人谈谈 经纪人可以回话 |
| 371 | The agent is able to solve novel problems that it hasn't seen before | 经纪人能解决以前没见过的新问题 |
| 372 | That's a really key part of human intelligence and it's that cognitive breadth and flexibility. | 这是人类智力的关键部分 也是认知的广度和灵活性 |
| 373 | That's incredible | 难以置信 |
| 374 | The only natural general intelligence we don't have as humans. | 我们唯一没有人类的自然一般智慧 |
| 375 | We obviously learn a lot from our environment | 我们显然从我们的环境学到了很多东西 |
| 376 | So we think that simulated environments are one of the ways to create an AGI | 所以我们认为模拟环境 是创造AGI的方法之一 |
| 377 | The very early humans were having to solve logic problems | 早期的人类必须解决逻辑问题 |
| 378 | They were having to solve navigation memory and we evolved in that environment | 他们必须解开导航记忆 我们在这个环境中进化 |
| 379 | If we can create a virtual recreation of that kind of environment, that's the perfect testing ground and training ground for | 如果我们能创造出这种环境的虚拟娱乐 那就是完美的试验场和训练场 |
| 380 | 我们在DeepMind所做的一切 | |
| 381 | What they were doing here was creating environments for childlike beings the agents to exist within and play | 他们在这里所做的是创造环境 给像孩子一样的生物 创造存在和玩耍的力量 |
| 382 | That just sounded like the the most interesting thing in all the world | 这听起来就像世界上最有趣的事情 |
| 383 | A child learns by tearing things up and throwing food around and getting a response from mommy or daddy | 小孩通过撕东西 扔食物 得到妈妈或爸爸的响应来学习 |
| 384 | This seems like an important idea to incorporate in the way you train your agent | 这似乎是一个重要的想法 纳入你训练你的代理人的方式 |
| 385 | The humanoid is supposed to stand up as his center of gravity rises. | 人造人应该站立起来 当他的重力中心上升时 |
| 386 | It gets more points | 它得到更多的分数 |
| 387 | You have a reward and the agent learns from the reward like you do something well, you get a positive reward | 你有奖赏 经纪人从奖赏中吸取教训 就像你做得很好一样 得到肯定的奖赏 |
| 388 | You do something bad in a way you get a negative reward | 你做坏事的方式 你得到一个负面的奖励 |
| 389 | Oh, it looks like it's standing | 哦,它看起来像是站着的 |
| 390 | It's still a bit drunk. | 还是有点醉 |
| 391 | It likes to walk backwards. | 喜欢向后走. |
| 392 | Yeah | 对 |
| 393 | the whole algorithm is trying to | 整个算法试图 |
| 394 | Optimize for receiving as much rewards as possible and it's found that walking backwards. | 尽可能优化奖励 发现后退 |
| 395 | That's good enough to get very good scores | 这足以得到非常好的分数 |
| 396 | When we learn to navigate when we learn to get around in our world, we don't start with maps | 当我们学会导航 当我们学会环游世界 我们不从地图开始 |
| 397 | We just start with our own exploration | 我们刚刚开始自己的探索 |
| 398 | adventuring off across the park without our without our parents by our side or | 冒险过公园 没有我们的父母在我们身边 |
| 399 | Finding our way home from school when we're young a | 找到我们从学校回家的路 当我们年轻的时候 |
| 400 | few of us came up with this idea that if we had an environment where a simulated robot just had to run forward we could put | 我们当中很少有人想到这个想法 如果我们有一个环境 一个模拟机器人只需向前走 |
| 401 | All sorts of obstacles in its way and see if it could manage to navigate different types of terrain | 遇到各种障碍,看看它能否 穿越不同类型的地形 |
| 402 | The idea would be like a parkour challenge | 这个想法就像一个公园挑战 |
| 403 | It's not graceful | 这不是优雅的 |
| 404 | But was never trained to hold a glass as I was running and not spill water | 但从没有训练过我在跑步时拿着杯子 也没有洒水 |
| 405 | you set this objective that says just move forward forward velocity and you'll get a reward for that and | 你设定了这个目标 说只要向前走的速度 你会因此得到奖励 |
| 406 | The learning algorithm figures out how to move this complex set of joints | 学习算法知道如何移动这组复杂的关节 |
| 407 | That's a power of reward based reinforcement learning | 这是以奖励为基础的强化学习的力量 |
| 408 | Our goal is to try and build agents which you drop them in they know nothing | 我们的目标是尝试建立特工 你把他们扔进去 他们什么都不知道 |
| 409 | They get to play around in whatever problem you give them and eventually figure out how to solve it for themselves | 无论你给他们带来什么麻烦 他们都会到处玩 最终想出怎么解决 |
| 410 | Now we want something which can do that in as many different types of problem as possible a | 现在,我们想要能够做到这一点的东西 在尽可能多的不同类型 的问题,尽可能 |
| 411 | Human needs diverse skills to interact with the world | 人类需要多种技能与世界互动 |
| 412 | How to deal with complex images how to manipulate thousands of things at once how to deal with missing information | 如何处理复杂的图像 如何立刻操纵数千件东西 如何处理缺失的信息 |
| 413 | We think all of these things together are represented by this game called Starcraft | 我们觉得所有这些东西 都由这个叫"星舰"的游戏所代表 |
| 414 | All it's been trained to do is given this situation this cream | 被训练的只有这种奶油 |
| 415 | What would the human do we took inspiration from large language models where you simply train a model to predict the next word? | 我们人类会从大语言模型中 得到什么启示? 在那里你只是训练一个模型来预测下一个词? |
| 416 | Which is exactly the same as predict the next Starcraft move | 这和预测下一个星舰动作完全一样 |
| 417 | Unlike chess or go where players take turns to make moves in Starcraft. | 不同于国际象棋或玩家轮流在Starcraft中移动的地方. |
| 418 | There's a continuous flow of decisions | 判决不断流传 |
| 419 | On top of that you can't even see what the opponent is doing | 而且你连对手在做什么都看不见 |
| 420 | There is no longer a clear definition of what it means to play the best way. | 对于发挥最佳作用的意义不再有明确的定义。 |
| 421 | It depends on what your opponent does | 要看对手是做什么的 |
| 422 | This is the way that we'll get to a much more fluid more natural faster more reactive agent | 这样我们才能找到更流畅的 更自然的更快速的反应剂 |
| 423 | This is the huge challenge and let's see how far we can push. | 这是巨大的挑战 让我们看看我们能推进多远 |
| 424 | Oh | 瓳 |
| 425 | Holy monkey. | 天呐 |
| 426 | I'm a pretty low level amateur | 我是一个相当低级的业余爱好者 |
| 427 | I'm okay, but I'm a pretty low level amateur | 我没事,不过我是个低级的业余 |
| 428 | To go we can beat someone of Tim's level, you know, that was a little bit alarming at that point | 要走,我们可以打败一个蒂姆的水平, 你知道,这是有点 令人震惊的,当时 |
| 429 | It felt like it was gonna be a like a really big long challenge and maybe a couple years | 感觉会是个很长的挑战 可能要几年 |
| 430 | Danny is the best deep mind Starcraft 2 player. | 丹尼是"最深的心灵"星舰2号球员. |
| 431 | I've been playing the agent every day for a few weeks now. | 我每天扮演经纪人已经几周了 |
| 432 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 433 | Could feel that the agent was getting better really fast | 可能觉得经纪人的状态越来越快 |
| 434 | Wow, we beat Danny that that for me was already like a huge achievement | 哇,我们打败了Danny,那对我来说 已经是一个巨大的成就。 |
| 435 | The next step is we're gonna book in a pro to play | 下一步是,我们定一个职业选手去玩 |
| 436 | We're way ahead of what I thought we were doing given where we were two months ago | 我们远远领先于两个月前我所认为的 |
| 437 | Just trying to digest it all actually, but it's very very cool | 其实只是想消化一下,但很酷 |
| 438 | Now we're in a position where we can finally share the work that we've done with the public. | 现在,我们终于可以与公众分享我们所做的工作。 |
| 439 | This is a big step | 这是一大步 |
| 440 | We are really putting ourselves on the line here | и痷璶硂 |
| 441 | We're gonna be live from London | 我们要在伦敦现场直播 |
| 442 | It's happening | 发生了 |
| 443 | Welcome to London. | 欢迎来到伦敦。 |
| 444 | We are going to have a live exhibition match Mana against Alpha Star | 我们要举办一场现场展览 与玛娜对抗阿尔法星 |
| 445 | at this point now | 此时此刻 |
| 446 | Alpha Star 10 and oh against 专业游戏家 在我们进入游戏前有什么想法吗? | |
| 447 | No, I just want to see a good game | 不,我只想看场好比赛 |
| 448 | Yeah, absolutely good game. | 是啊,绝对不错的游戏。 |
| 449 | We're all excited. | 我们都很兴奋 |
| 450 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 451 | Let's see what mana can pull up | 让我们看看什么玛娜可以拉起 |
| 452 | All the star is definitely dominating the pace of this game | 所有的明星 绝对是主宰这个游戏的速度 |
| 453 | Wow Alpha star is like so smartly | 哇,阿尔法明星真聪明 |
| 454 | This really looks like I'm watching that professional human gamer from the Alpha star point of view I | 这看起来真像是我从阿尔法星的角度 看着那个专业的人类游戏家 |
| 455 | Had really seen a pro play Starcraft up close | 曾经亲眼目睹过职业剧"星舰" |
| 456 | And the 800 clicks per minute | 每分钟点击800次 |
| 457 | I don't understand how anyone can even click 800 times let alone if doing 800 useful clicks | 我不懂谁能点击800次 更别说点击800次 |
| 458 | Alpha star just completely relentless | 阿尔法星只是完全无情 |
| 459 | We need to be careful because many of us grew up as gamers and our gamers and so to us | 我们需要小心,因为我们中许多人是作为游戏家和游戏家长大的,对我们来说就是这样 |
| 460 | It's very natural to to view games as what they are | 把游戏看成什么是很自然的 |
| 461 | Which is pure vehicles for fun and not to see that more militaristic side that the public might see if they looked at this | 这纯粹是好玩的车辆 而不是看到更军事主义的一面 公众可能会看到 如果他们看这个 |
| 462 | You can't look at gunpowder and only make a firecracker all technologies inherently point into certain directions | 你不能看火药 只能用鞭炮打火炮 所有的技术都指向某些方向 |
| 463 | I'm very worried about the certain ways in which AI will be used for military purposes | 我很担心AI会被用于军事目的 |
| 464 | And that makes it even clearer how important it is for our societies to be in control of | 这使我们更清楚地认识到,我们社会控制 |
| 465 | These new technologies the potential for abuse from AI will be significant | 这些新技术有可能受到大赦国际的虐待。 |
| 466 | Wars that occur faster than humans can comprehend and more powerful surveillance | 战争比人类更能理解 更强大的监视 |
| 467 | How do you keep power | 如何保持权力 |
| 468 | forever | 永远 |
| 469 | Over something that's much more powerful than you | 比你强得多的东西 |
| 470 | One can imagine such technology outsmarting financial markets out inventing human researchers | 可以想象这种技术 超越金融市场 发明人类研究者 |
| 471 | Outmanipulating human leaders and potentially subduing us with weapons we cannot even understand | 释放人类领袖 并有可能用我们无法理解的武器制服我们 |
| 472 | So we should aim to get things right the first time because it may be the only chance we will get | 因此,我们应努力 使事情 第一次,因为这可能是我们唯一的机会 |
| 473 | Technologies can be used to do terrible things | 技术可以用来做坏事 |
| 474 | And technology can be used to do wonderful things and solve all kinds of problems | 技术可以用来做美妙的事情 解决各种各样的问题 |
| 475 | When deep mind was acquired by Google, yeah | 当深思熟虑被谷歌收购,是的 |
| 476 | You got Google to promise that technology you develop won't be used by the military right surveillance. | 你让Google保证你开发的技术不会被军方右翼监视使用. |
| 477 | Yes. | 对 |
| 478 | Tell us about that | 跟我们说说 |
| 479 | I think in technology is neutral in itself | 我觉得科技本身是中立的 |
| 480 | But how you know we as a society or humans and companies and other things other entities and governments decide to use it is what determines | 但是,你怎么知道我们是一个社会 或者人类和公司 以及其他事情 其他实体和政府决定使用它 |
| 481 | Whether things become good or bad, you know, I personally think that having autonomous or weaponry is just a very bad idea | 无论事情变得好坏,你知道, 我个人认为 拥有自主或武器只是一个非常坏的想法 |
| 482 | Alpha star is playing an extremely intelligent game right now | 阿尔法明星正在玩一个非常聪明的游戏 |
| 483 | There is an element to what's being created at deep mind in London that does seem like the Manhattan Project | 伦敦深思熟虑的事物 有一个要素 看起来像曼哈顿计划 |
| 484 | There's a relationship between Robert Oppenheimer and | 罗伯特·奥本海默和 |
| 485 | Demisys Abbas in which they're unleashing a new force upon humanity | 他们向人类施展新力量 |
| 486 | Manos fighting back though | 马诺斯虽然反击了 |
| 487 | I think that Oppenheimer and some of the other leaders of that project got caught up in the excitement of building the technology and seeing if it was possible | 我认为,奥本海默和这个项目的一些其他领导人 陷入了建设技术的兴奋之中, 并且看看这是否可行 |
| 488 | Where is Alpha Star? | 阿尔法星在哪里? |
| 489 | I don't see Alpha Star's units anywhere | 我哪里都看不到阿尔法星的单位 |
| 490 | They did not think carefully enough about the morals of what they were doing early enough | 他们没有足够仔细地思考 他们的道德 他们做的足够早 |
| 491 | What we should do as scientists with powerful new technologies is try and understanding control conditions first | 作为拥有强大新技术的科学家,我们应该做的是首先尝试了解控制条件。 |
| 492 | And that is that | 就是这样 |
| 493 | Mana has defeated Alpha Star | 玛娜打败了阿尔法星 |
| 494 | I mean my honest feeling is that I think is a fair representation of where we are and I think that part feels feels okay | 我的意思是,我的诚实感觉是,我认为是 公平代表我们的位置 我认为这部分感觉好 |
| 495 | I'm very happy for you | 我为你高兴 |
| 496 | So, you know, well done | 所以,你知道,做得不错 |
| 497 | My view is that the approach to building technology which is embodied by a move fast and break things is exactly what we should not be doing | 我的观点是,建设技术的方法 体现为快速移动和打破事物 正是我们不应该做的 |
| 498 | Because you can't afford to break things and then fix them afterwards | 因为你买不起破烂东西 以后再修 |
| 499 | Cheers, yeah | 干杯,对 |
| 500 | Thank you so much | 谢谢 |
| 501 | Get some rest | 休息一会吧 |
| 502 | Cheers, yeah | 干杯,对 |
| 503 | Thank you for having us | 谢谢你邀请我们 |
| 504 | When I was eight, I bought my first computer with winnings from a chess tournament | 我八岁的时候 买了第一台电脑 里面有围棋比赛的胜利者 |
| 505 | I've sort of had this intuition that computers are this magical device that can extend the power of the mind | 我有一种直觉 计算机是神奇的装置 能够扩展心灵的力量 |
| 506 | I had a couple of school friends, we used to have a hacking club, writing code, making games | 我有几个学校的朋友 我们以前有个黑客俱乐部 写代码 制作游戏 |
| 507 | And then over the summer holidays I'd spend the whole day flicking through games magazines | 然后在暑假里 我整天在游戏杂志上炫耀 |
| 508 | And one day I noticed there was a competition to write an original version of Space Invaders and the winner won a job at Bullfrog | 有一天我注意到有一场比赛 写了"太空入侵者"的原版 获胜者赢得了牛蛙公司的工作 |
| 509 | Bullfrog at the time was the best game development house in all of Europe | 当时的Bullfrog是全欧洲最好的游戏开发商 |
| 510 | You know, I really wanted to work at this place and see how they built games | 你知道,我真的想在这里工作 看看他们是怎么创造游戏的 |
| 511 | Bullfrog based here in Guildford began with a big idea | 以吉福德为基地的牛蛙从一个大主意开始 |
| 512 | That idea turned into the game Populous which became a global bestseller | 这个想法变成了流行游戏 成为全球畅销书 |
| 513 | In the 90s, there was no recruitment agencies | 在90年代,没有招聘机构 |
| 514 | You couldn't go out and say, oh, you know, come and work in the games industry | 你不能出去说,哦,你知道的,过来在游戏行业工作 |
| 515 | It was still not even considered an industry | 连这个行业都不算 |
| 516 | So we came up with the idea to have a competition and we got a lot of applicants | 所以我们想出一个办法 来参加一场比赛 我们得到了很多的申请人 |
| 517 | And one of those was Demisys | 其中一个是德米西 |
| 518 | I can still remember clearly the day that Demis came in | 我仍然可以清楚地记得 那天,德米斯进来 |
| 519 | He walked in the door, he looked about 12 | 他走进门里,他看着大约12个 |
| 520 | I thought, oh my God, what the hell are we going to do with this guy? | 我想,哦,我的上帝, 我们该怎么办这家伙? |
| 521 | I applied to Cambridge | 我申请了剑桥大学 |
| 522 | I got in but they said I was way too young | 我进去了,但他们说我太年轻了 |
| 523 | So I needed to take a year off so I'd be at least 17 before I got there | 所以,我需要休息一年 所以,我至少17岁之前,我到达那里。 |
| 524 | And that's when I decided to spend that entire gap year working at Bullfrog | 那时我决定把整个空档年都花在牛蛙公司工作 |
| 525 | They couldn't even legally employ me so I ended up being paid in brown paper envelopes | 他们甚至不能合法雇用我 所以我最后被付了棕色的纸封 |
| 526 | I got a feeling of being really at the cutting edge | 我有一种感觉 真正处于前沿 |
| 527 | And how much fun that was to invent things every day | 每天发明东西是多么有趣 |
| 528 | And then, you know, a few months later, maybe a million people would be playing it | 然后,你知道,几个月后, 也许一百万人会播放它 |
| 529 | In those days, computer games had to evolve | 在那个年代,电脑游戏必须进化 |
| 530 | There had to be new genres which were more than just shooting things | 肯定有新的流派 不仅仅是射击 |
| 531 | Wouldn't it be amazing to have a game where you design and build your own theme park? | 拥有一个你设计并建造自己的主题公园的游戏难道不令人惊奇吗? |
| 532 | Demisys started to talk about theme park | 德米西开始谈论主题公园 |
| 533 | It allows the player to build a world and see the consequences of your choices that you've made in that world | 它可以让玩家建立一个世界 并看到你在那个世界中做出选择的后果 |
| 534 | The human player set out the layout of the theme park | 人类玩家设定主题公园的布局 |
| 535 | And designed the roller coaster and set the prices in the chip shop | 设计了过山车 并设定了芯片店的价格 |
| 536 | What I was working on was the behaviors of the people | 我的工作是人们的行为 |
| 537 | They were autonomous and that was the AI in this case | 它们是自主的,这是本案中的AI |
| 538 | So what I was trying to do was mimic interesting human behavior | 所以我想模仿有趣的人类行为 |
| 539 | So that the simulation would be more interesting to interact with | 这样模拟会更有趣 与 |
| 540 | Demisys worked on ridiculous things like you could place down these shops | 黛咪茜在做一些可笑的事 就像你可以把这些店铺放进去 |
| 541 | And if you put a shop too near a very dangerous ride | 如果你把一个商店太靠近 一个非常危险的旅程 |
| 542 | Then people on the ride would throw up if they'd just eaten | 骑车的人吃东西就会吐 |
| 543 | And then that would make other people throw up when they saw the throwing up on the floor | 然后其他人会呕吐 当他们看到呕吐在地板上 |
| 544 | So you then had to have lots of sweepers to quickly sweep it up before the people saw it | 所以,你不得不有很多扫荡器 在人们看到它之前迅速扫荡它 |
| 545 | That's the cool thing about it | 就是这样的 |
| 546 | You as the player tinker with it and then it reacts to you | 你作为玩家修补它,然后它对你的反应 |
| 547 | All those nuanced simulation things he did | 他做的这些细微的模拟 |
| 548 | And that was an invention which never really existed before | 这是以前从未有过的发明 |
| 549 | It was unbelievably successful | 令人难以置信的成功 |
| 550 | Theme park actually turned out to be a top 10 title | 主题公园其实是十大标题 |
| 551 | And that was the first time we were starting to see how AI could make a difference | 这也是我们第一次看到AI如何改变 |
| 552 | We were doing some Christmas shopping and were waiting for the taxi to take us home | 我们在买圣诞礼物 等出租车送我们回家 |
| 553 | I have this very clear memory of Demis talking about AI in a very different way | 我对Demis以完全不同的方式 谈论AI的记忆非常清楚 |
| 554 | A way that we didn't commonly talk about | 我们通常不讨论的 |
| 555 | This idea of AI being useful for other things other than entertainment | 关于AI对娱乐以外的东西有用的想法 |
| 556 | So being useful for helping the world and the potential of AI to change the world | 帮助世界 发挥AI改变世界的潜力 |
| 557 | I just said to Demisys, what is it you want to do? | 我刚对黛米西说 你想做什么? |
| 558 | And he said to me, I want to be the person that solves AI | 他对我说 我想成为解决AI的人 |
| 559 | Peter offered me a million pounds to not go to university | 彼得给我一百万英镑不上大学 |
| 560 | But I had a plan from the beginning | 但我从一开始就有个计划 |
| 561 | And my plan was always to go to Cambridge | 我的计划总是去剑桥 |
| 562 | I think a lot of my school friends thought I was mad to go to you | 我觉得我很多学校的朋友 都以为我是疯了去找你 |
| 563 | Why would you not... | 你为什么不... |
| 564 | I mean, a million pounds, that's a lot of money | 我的意思是,一百万英镑,这是一大笔钱 |
| 565 | In the 90s, that is a lot of money, right? | 90年代,这是很多钱,对不对? |
| 566 | For a poor 17-year-old kid | 给一个17岁的可怜的孩子 |
| 567 | He's like this little seed that's got to burst through | 他就像一个小种子 它必须突破 |
| 568 | 他不会在Bullfrog那样的 | |
| 569 | I had to drop him off the train station | 我不得不送他出火车站 |
| 570 | And I can still see that picture of this little elven character disappear down that tunnel | 我仍然能看到这个精灵小人物的照片 消失在隧道里 |
| 571 | That was an incredibly sad moment | 这是一个令人难以置信的悲哀时刻 |
| 572 | I had this romantic idea of what Cambridge would be like | 我有一个浪漫的想法 剑桥会是什么样子 |
| 573 | A thousand years of history, walking the same streets that Turing, Newton and Crick had walked | 与图灵、牛顿和克里克走过的街道一样 |
| 574 | I wanted to explore the edge of the universe | 我想探索宇宙的边缘 |
| 575 | When I got to Cambridge, I'd basically been working my whole life | 当我到了剑桥, 我基本上一直工作 我的整个生活 |
| 576 | Every single summer, I was either playing chess professionally | 每逢夏天,我都在专业下棋 |
| 577 | Or I was working, doing an internship | 或者我在工作,做实习 |
| 578 | So I was like, right, I am going to have fun now | 所以我想,对了,我现在要玩了 |
| 579 | And explore what it means to be a normal teenager | 探索一个正常的少年意味着什么 |
| 580 | It was work hard and play hard | 工作很辛苦 玩得很开心 |
| 581 | I first met Demis because we both attended Queen's College | 我第一次见到戴米斯是因为 我们都上过皇后学院 |
| 582 | Our group of friends would often drink beer in the bar, play table football | 我们的一群朋友经常在酒吧喝啤酒 打桌球 |
| 583 | I used to play speed chess, pieces flying off the board | 我常玩速棋,棋子从板上飞走 |
| 584 | And you know, the whole game in one minute | 你知道,整个游戏 在一分钟内 |
| 585 | Demis sat down opposite me and I looked at him and I thought, I remember you from when we were kids | 戴米斯坐在我对面,我看着他 我想,我记得你 当我们还是孩子的时候 |
| 586 | I had actually been in the same chess tournament as Dave in Ipswich | 我其实和伊普斯威奇的戴夫参加了同样的国际象棋比赛 |
| 587 | Where I used to go and try and raid his local chess club to win a bit of prize money | 我曾经去的地方 试图突袭他当地的棋院 赢得一些奖金 |
| 588 | We were studying computer science | 我们在学习计算机科学 |
| 589 | Some people who at that age of 17 would have come in and made sure to tell everybody everything about themselves | 17岁那年的人会进来 告诉大家自己的一切 |
| 590 | Hey, I worked at Bullfrog and built the world's most successful video game | 嘿,我在Bullfrog工作 并建造了世界上最成功的电子游戏 |
| 591 | But he wasn't like that at all | 但他根本不是那样的 |
| 592 | At Cambridge, Demis and myself both had an interest in computational neuroscience | 在剑桥,戴米和我 都对计算神经科学感兴趣 |
| 593 | And trying to understand how computers and the brains intertwined and linked together | 试图理解 计算机和大脑是如何交织在一起的 |
| 594 | Both David and Demis came to me for supervisions | 大卫和戴米斯都来找我做监督 |
| 595 | It happens just by coincidence that the year 1997 | 巧合的是1997年 |
| 596 | Their third and final year at Cambridge was also the year when the first chess grandmaster was beaten by a computer program | 剑桥大学的第三年也是最后一年 第一个围棋大师被电脑程序打败 |
| 597 | Round one today of a chess match between the ranking world champion Gary Kasparov | 排名世界冠军加里·卡斯帕罗夫 今天的围棋比赛第一回合 |
| 598 | And an opponent named Deep Blue | 一个叫深蓝的对手 |
| 599 | To test to see if the human brain can outwit a machine | 测试人类大脑能否战胜机器 |
| 600 | I remember the drama of Kasparov losing the last match | 我记得卡斯帕罗夫输掉最后一场比赛的剧情 |
| 601 | Whoa! | 哗! |
| 602 | Kasparov has resigned! | 卡斯帕罗夫辞职了! |
| 603 | When Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov, that was a real watershed event | 当深蓝击败加里・卡斯帕罗夫, 这是一个真正的分水岭事件 |
| 604 | My main memory of it was I wasn't that impressed with Deep Blue | 我对它的主要记忆是 我没有那么印象 深蓝 |
| 605 | I was more impressed with Kasparov's mind | 我对卡斯帕罗夫的思想印象更深刻 |
| 606 | That he could play chess to this level where he could compete on an equal footing with the brew of a machine | 他可以下到这个水平 和机器的酿造平等竞争 |
| 607 | But of course Kasparov can do everything else humans can do too | 当然卡斯帕罗夫也能做其他人类所能做的 |
| 608 | It was a huge achievement, but the truth of the matter was Deep Blue could only play chess | 这是一个巨大的成就, 但事实是深蓝只能下棋 |
| 609 | What we would regard as intelligence was missing from that system | 我们所认为的系统缺少情报 |
| 610 | This idea of generality and also learning | 这种概括和学习的想法 |
| 611 | Cambridge was amazing because of course you know you're mixing with people who are studying many different subjects | 剑桥是惊人的,因为你当然知道 你和那些研究许多不同学科的人混在一起 |
| 612 | There were scientists, philosophers, artists, geologists, biologists, ecologists | 有科学家,哲学家,艺术家,地质学家,生物学家,生态学家 |
| 613 | You know everybody's talking about everything all the time | 你知道每个人都在谈论一切 |
| 614 | I was obsessed with the protein folding problem | 我沉迷于蛋白质折叠的问题 |
| 615 | Tim Stevens used to talk obsessively almost like religiously about this problem, protein folding problem | 蒂姆・史蒂文斯经常说 迷恋 几乎喜欢宗教 这个问题,蛋白质折叠问题 |
| 616 | Proteins are, you know, one of the most beautiful and elegant things about biology | 蛋白质是最美丽最优雅的生物之一 |
| 617 | They are the machines of life | 他们是生命的机器 |
| 618 | They build everything, they control everything, they're why biology works | 他们创造一切,控制一切, 是生物工作的原因 |
| 619 | Proteins are made from strings of amino acids that fold up to create a protein structure | 蛋白质由叠叠的氨基酸串组成,形成蛋白质结构. |
| 620 | If we can predict the structure of proteins from just their amino acid sequences | 如果我们能从它们的氨基酸序列中 预测蛋白质的结构 |
| 621 | Then a new protein to cure cancer or breaks down plastic to help the environment | 然后一种新的蛋白质来治疗癌症 或破解塑料来帮助环境 |
| 622 | is definitely something that you could begin to think about | 肯定是一些你可以开始思考 |
| 623 | I kind of thought, well, is a human being clever enough to actually fold the protein? | 我想,嗯,一个人聪明到可以折叠蛋白质吗? |
| 624 | We can't work it out | 我们解决不了的 |
| 625 | Since the 1960s we thought that in principle if I know what the amino acid sequence of a protein is | 1960年代以来,我们一直认为,原则上,如果我知道蛋白质的氨基酸序列是什么 |
| 626 | I should be able to compute what the structure is like | 我应该能计算出结构是什么样子的 |
| 627 | So if you could just press a button and they'd all come popping out, that would be, that would have some impact | 所以如果你能按下一个按钮, 他们都出来了, 这将是,会有一些影响 |
| 628 | Stuck in my mind as, oh, this is a very interesting problem | 困在我的脑海里,因为,哦, 这是一个非常有趣的问题 |
| 629 | And it felt to me like it would be solvable | 感觉就像可以溶解 |
| 630 | But I thought it would need AI to do it | 但我觉得需要人工智能来做 |
| 631 | If we could just solve protein folding, it could change the world | 如果我们能解决蛋白质折叠问题 就能改变世界 |
| 632 | Ever since I was a student at Cambridge | 自从我在剑桥当学生 |
| 633 | I've never stopped thinking about the protein folding problem | 我从未停止思考蛋白质折叠的问题 |
| 634 | If you were to solve protein folding | 如果你能解决蛋白质折叠问题 |
| 635 | Then the potential to help solve problems like Alzheimer's, dementia and drug discovery is huge | 那么帮助解决老年痴呆症、痴呆症和药物发现等问题的潜力是巨大的 |
| 636 | Solving disease is probably the most major impact we could have | 解决疾病可能是我们最大的影响 |
| 637 | Thousands of very smart people have tried to solve protein folding | 成千上万的聪明人试图解决蛋白质折叠 |
| 638 | I just think now is the right time for AI to crack it | 我只是觉得现在是AI破解它的时候 |
| 639 | We needed a reasonable way to applying machine learning to the protein folding problem | 我们需要一个合理的方法 应用机器学习 蛋白质折叠问题 |
| 640 | We came across this fold it game | 我们遇到这个折叠游戏 |
| 641 | The goal is to move around this 3D model of a protein and you get a score every time you move it | 目标是围绕蛋白质的3D模型移动 每次移动都会得到一个分数 |
| 642 | The more accurate you can make these structures, the more useful they will be to biologists | 这些结构越准确,对生物学家就越有用 |
| 643 | We spent a few days just kind of seeing how well we could do | 我们花了好几天 才知道我们能做得有多好 |
| 644 | We did reasonably well | 我们做得很好 |
| 645 | But even if you were the world's best folder player, you wouldn't solve protein folding | 但即使你是最好的文件夹播放器, 你也不会解决蛋白质折叠 |
| 646 | That's where we had to move beyond the game | 这就是我们必须超越游戏的地方 |
| 647 | Games are always just a proving ground for our algorithms | 游戏总是证明我们的算法 |
| 648 | 最终目标不仅仅是破解Go和StarCraft | |
| 649 | It was to crack real world challenges | 是为了破解现实世界的挑战 |
| 650 | I remember hearing this rumor that Dimas was getting into proteins | 我记得听到一个谣言 迪玛斯正在进入蛋白质 |
| 651 | I talked to some people at DeepMind and I would ask, so are you doing protein folding? | 我和DeepMind的一些人谈过了 我想问,你在做蛋白质折叠吗? |
| 652 | And they would artfully change the subject and when that happened twice, I pretty much figured it out | 他们会巧妙地改变话题 当发生两次,我几乎想通了 |
| 653 | So I thought I should submit a resume | 所以我认为我应该提交一份履历 |
| 654 | Alright everyone, welcome to DeepMind | 各位,欢迎来到深明 |
| 655 | I know some of you this may be your first week | 我知道你们中的一些人 这也许是你们第一个星期 |
| 656 | The really appealing part for me about the job was this sense of connection to the larger purpose | 我对这份工作真正有吸引力的是 这种与大目标的联系感 |
| 657 | If we can crack some fundamental problems in science, many other people and other companies and labs and so on could build on top of our work | 如果我们能破解科学中的一些根本问题,许多其他人和其他公司和实验室等等就可以在我们的工作之上更上一层楼. |
| 658 | This is your chance now to add your chapter to this story | 这是你现在的机会 加入你的篇章在这个故事 |
| 659 | When I arrived, I was definitely quite a bit nervous | 我一到这儿就有点紧张 |
| 660 | I haven't taken any biology courses | 我还没上生物学课程 |
| 661 | We haven't spent years of our lives looking at these structures and understanding them | 我们没有花很多年的时间 看着这些结构 了解它们 |
| 662 | We are just going off the data in our machine learning models | 我们只是去关闭 我们的机器学习模型的数据 |
| 663 | In machine learning, you train a network like flashcards | 在机器学习中,你训练一个像闪卡这样的网络 |
| 664 | Here's the question, here's the answer | 问题在这里,答案在这里 |
| 665 | But in protein folding, we're not doing the kind of standard task at DeepMind where you have unlimited data | 但是在蛋白质折叠中,我们没有在DeepMind做那种标准的任务,那里你拥有无限的数据 |
| 666 | Your job is to get better at chess or Go and you can play as many games as chess or Go as your computers will allow | 你的工作是越下越好 越下越多越好 |
| 667 | With proteins, we're sitting on a very fixed size of data that's been determined by a half century of time consuming experimental methods in laboratories | 有了蛋白质,我们坐在一个非常固定的数据大小上,这些数据是由实验室中耗时半个世纪的实验方法决定的. |
| 668 | These painstaking methods can take months or years to determine a single protein structure | 这些艰苦的方法可能要数月或数年才能确定单一的蛋白质结构 |
| 669 | And sometimes a structure can never be determined | 有时一个结构永远无法确定 |
| 670 | That's why we're working with such small data sets to train our algorithms | 所以我们才用这些小数据来训练我们的算法 |
| 671 | When DeepMind started to explore the folding problem, they were talking to us about which data sets they were using and what would be the possibilities if they did solve this problem | 当DeepMind开始探索折叠问题时,他们正在和我们谈论他们使用的哪些数据集,如果他们确实解决了这个问题,将有哪些可能性? |
| 672 | Many people have tried and yet no one on the planet has solved protein folding | 很多人都尝试过,但地球上没有人解决蛋白质折叠 |
| 673 | I did think to myself, well, you know, good luck | 我心里想,祝你好运 |
| 674 | If we can solve the protein folding problem, it would have an incredible kind of medical relevance | 如果我们能解决蛋白质折叠问题, 它会有一种不可思议的医学相关性 |
| 675 | This is the cycles of science | 这是科学的循环 |
| 676 | You do a huge amount of exploration and then you go into exploitation mode and you focus and you see how good are those ideas really | 你做了大量的探索,然后进入开发模式,你集中注意力,你看这些想法有多好 |
| 677 | And there's nothing better than external competition for that | 没有什么比外部竞争更好的了 |
| 678 | So we decided to enter CASP competition | 所以我们决定参加CASP比赛 |
| 679 | CASP, we started to try and speed up the solution to the protein folding problem | CASP,我们开始尝试 加快解决蛋白质折叠问题 |
| 680 | CASP is when we say, look DeepMind is doing protein folding, this is how good we are and maybe it's better than everybody else, maybe it isn't | CASP是当我们说,看DeepMind在做蛋白质折叠, 这是我们有多好,也许它比其他人更好,也许不是 |
| 681 | CASP is a bit like the Olympic Games protein folding | CASP有点像奥运会的蛋白质折叠 |
| 682 | CASP is a community wide assessment that's held every two years | CASP是一个社区范围的评估,每两年举行一次 |
| 683 | Teams are given the amino acid sequences of about 100 proteins and then they try to solve this folding problem using computational methods | 团队获得大约100个蛋白质的氨基酸序列,然后尝试用计算方法解决这个折叠问题. |
| 684 | These proteins have already been determined by experiments in the laboratory but have not yet been revealed publicly | 这些蛋白质已经通过实验室的实验确定,但尚未被公开披露. |
| 685 | And these known structures represent the gold standard against which all the computation predictions will be compared | 而这些已知的结构代表了金本位,所有计算预测都将以此作为对比. |
| 686 | We've got a score that measures the accuracy of the predictions and you would expect a score of over 90 to be a solution to the protein folding problem | 我们得到了一个分数 测量预测的准确性, 你会期望一个超过90分的分数 是蛋白质折叠问题的解决方案 |
| 687 | Welcome everyone to our first semi-finals in the witness bracket, Nick and John versus Demis and Frank | 欢迎大家参加我们的第一个半决赛 尼克和约翰对德米斯和弗兰克 |
| 688 | Please join us a couple of rounds, this will be the first match | 请加入我们两回合,这是第一次比赛 |
| 689 | When I learned that Demis was going to tackle the protein folding issue, I wasn't at all surprised | 当我得知Demis要解决蛋白质折叠问题时 我一点也不惊讶 |
| 690 | It's very typical of Demis, he loves competitions | 这是非常典型的德米斯,他喜欢比赛 |
| 691 | The aim for CASP would be to not just win the competition but sort of retire the need for it | CASP的目的 不仅是赢得比赛 而且还要退出比赛 |
| 692 | So 20 targets total have been released by CASP | CASP共发布了20个目标 |
| 693 | We were thinking maybe throw in the standard kind of machine learning and see how far that could take us | 我们想着也许 扔在标准类型 机器学习 看看这可以 对我们有多远 |
| 694 | Instead of having a couple days on an experiment we can turn around five experiments a day | 而不是在实验上呆几天 我们可以一天转五个实验 |
| 695 | Great, well done everyone | 好极了,大家都干得不错 |
| 696 | Can you show me the real one instead of ours? | 你能给我看真人吗? |
| 697 | The true answer is supposed to look something like that | 真正的答案应该是这样的 |
| 698 | It's a lot more cylindrical than I thought | 这比我想的要多得多 |
| 699 | The results were not very good | 结果不好 |
| 700 | You throw all the obvious ideas to it and the problem laughs at you | 你把所有明显的想法都扔进去,问题就笑你 |
| 701 | This makes no sense | 这没道理 |
| 702 | We thought we could just throw some of our best algorithms at the problem | 我们以为可以把最好的算法扔到问题上 |
| 703 | We were slightly naive | 我们有点天真 |
| 704 | We should be learning this in the blink of an eye | 我们应该一眨眼就学会 |
| 705 | The thing I'm worried about is we take the field from really bad answers to moderately bad answers | 我担心的是,我们把球场 从非常糟糕的答案到中度糟糕的答案 |
| 706 | I feel like we need some sort of new technology for moving around these things | 我觉得我们需要某种新技术来改变这些东西 |
| 707 | With only a week left of CASP, it's now a sprint to get it deployed | 由于CASP只剩一周时间了,现在要用短跑来部署它 |
| 708 | You've done your best and then there's nothing more you can do | 你尽了全力,你再也没有办法了 |
| 709 | But wait for CASP to deliver the result | 但等CASP给出结果 |
| 710 | This famous thing of Einstein last couple of years of his life when he was here | 爱因斯坦在这里的几年来 |
| 711 | He overlapped with Kurt Gödel and he said one of the reasons he still comes into work | 他和Kurt Gödel重叠了 他说他还上班的原因之一 |
| 712 | Is so that he gets to walk home and discuss things with Gödel | 这样他就能走路回家 和戈德尔讨论事情 |
| 713 | 这是对Kurt Gödel的赞美 | |
| 714 | Shows you how amazing he was | 让你知道他有多厉害 |
| 715 | The Institute for Advanced Study was formed in 1933 | 1933年成立高等研究院. |
| 716 | In the early years the intense scientific atmosphere attracted some of the most brilliant mathematicians and physicists ever concentrated in a single place and time | 早年,强烈的科学氛围吸引了一些最杰出的数学家和物理学家 集中在一个单一的地方和时间 |
| 717 | The founding principle of this place, it's the idea of unfettered intellectual pursuit | 这个地方的创始原则,是不受约束的思想追求 |
| 718 | Even if you don't know what you're exploring will result in some cool things | 就算你不知道自己在探索什么 也会导致一些很酷的东西 |
| 719 | And sometimes that then ends up being useful | 有时最后会有用 |
| 720 | Which of course partially what I've been trying to do at DeepMind | 当然,我在DeepMind所做的部分工作 |
| 721 | How many big breakthroughs do you think are required to get all the way to AGI and you know estimate maybe there's about a dozen of those | 你认为需要多少重大突破 才能一直到AGI 你知道估计也许有十几个 |
| 722 | You know I hope it's within my lifetime | 你知道,我希望这是在我的生命中 |
| 723 | But then all scientists hope that, right? | 但是所有的科学家都希望如此,对吧? |
| 724 | Demis' many accolades was elected fellow to Royal Society last year | 戴米斯的很多成就 去年被选入皇家学会 |
| 725 | He's also fellow Royal Society of Arts | 他也是皇家艺术学会的会员 |
| 726 | A big hand for Demis' house | 戴米斯家的一只大手 |
| 727 | My dream has always been to try and make AI assisted science possible | 我一直梦想着让AI帮助科学成为可能 |
| 728 | And what I think is our most exciting project last year | 我认为是去年我们最激动人心的项目 |
| 729 | Which is our work in protein folding | 这是我们在蛋白质折叠方面的工作 |
| 730 | 我们称这个系统为AlphaFold | |
| 731 | We entered it into CASP and our system was the most accurate predicting structures for 25 out of the 43 proteins in the hardest CASP | 我们把它输入了CASP,我们的系统是最精确的预测结构 对于43个蛋白质中的25个 |
| 732 | category | 类别 |
| 733 | So we're state of the art but we still have to make it clear we're still a long way from solving the protein folding problem | 所以,我们是最新的技术, 但我们仍然必须明确, 我们还是很长的路要走 解决蛋白质折叠问题 |
| 734 | We're working hard on this still and we're exploring many other techniques | 我们还在努力研究其他技术 |
| 735 | Please get started | 请开始吧 |
| 736 | So kind of a rapid debrief | 这么快的汇报 |
| 737 | These are our final rankings for CASP | 这些是CASP的最后排名 |
| 738 | We beat the second team in this competition by nearly 50% | 这场比赛我们赢了二队近50% |
| 739 | But we still have a long way to go before we've solved the protein folding problem | 但要解决蛋白质折叠问题 我们还有很长的路要走 |
| 740 | In a sense that a biologist could use it | 某种意义上说,一个生物学家可以使用它 |
| 741 | It is an area of concern | 这是一个令人关切的领域 |
| 742 | The quality of predictions varied and they were no more useful than the previous methods | 预测的质量各不相同,而且没有比以前的方法更有用的 |
| 743 | AlphaFold didn't produce good enough data for it to be useful in a practical way to say something like me investigating my own biological problems | AlphaFold没有提供足够好的数据 以实用的方式说出我调查自己的生物问题 |
| 744 | That was kind of a humbling moment because we thought we'd worked very hard and succeeded | 那是个令人发指的时刻 因为我们认为我们很努力地工作 并且成功 |
| 745 | And what we'd found is we were the best in the world at a problem the world's not good at | 而我们发现的是,我们是最好的 在世界上一个问题 世界上不擅长 |
| 746 | We knew we sucked | 我们知道我们很烂 |
| 747 | It doesn't help if you have the tallest ladder when you're going to the moon | 登月时梯子最高也没用 |
| 748 | The opinion of quite a few people on the team that this is sort of a fool's errand in some ways | 团队中相当一部分人认为 这在某种程度上是愚蠢的事 |
| 749 | And I might have been wrong with protein folding | 我可能错了 蛋白质折叠 |
| 750 | Maybe it's too hard still for where we're at generally with AI | 也许我们和AI的关系太难了 |
| 751 | If you want to do biological research you have to be prepared to fail because biology is very complicated | 如果你想进行生物学研究,就必须准备失败,因为生物学非常复杂 |
| 752 | I've run a laboratory for nearly 50 years and half my time I'm just an amateur psychiatrist to keep my colleagues cheerful when nothing works | 我经营实验室将近50年半了 我只是个业余心理医生 让同事开心起来 |
| 753 | And quite a lot of the time, and I mean 80-90%, it does not work | 很多时候,我的意思是80-90%, 它不起作用 |
| 754 | If you are at the forefront of science I can tell you, you will fail a great deal | 如果你站在科学的前沿 我可以告诉你,你会失败很多 |
| 755 | I just felt disappointed | 我只是觉得很失望 |
| 756 | The lesson I learnt is that ambition is a good thing but you need to get the timing right | 我学到的教训是,野心是件好事 但你需要把握时机 |
| 757 | There's no point being 50 years ahead of your time | 早到五十年是没有意义的 |
| 758 | You will never survive 50 years of that kind of endeavour before it yields something | 在这种努力产生之前 你永远活不过50年 |
| 759 | You'll literally die trying | 你会死的 |
| 760 | When we talk about AGI, the holy grail of artificial intelligence, it becomes really difficult to know what we're even talking about | 当我们谈论人工智能的圣杯AGI的时候 很难知道我们在说什么 |
| 761 | Which bits are we going to see today? | 我们今天要看哪一点? |
| 762 | We're going to start in the garden | 我们从花园开始 |
| 763 | This is the garden looking from the observation area | 这是从观察区看的花园 |
| 764 | Research scientists and engineers can analyse and collaborate and evaluate what's going on in real time | 研究科学家和工程师可以实时分析、协作和评价正在发生的事情。 |
| 765 | Someone in the 1800s would think of things like television and the submarine or a rocket ship to the moon and say these things are impossible | 1800年代有人会想到 电视和潜水艇或者飞到月球的火箭船 说这些是不可能的 |
| 766 | Yet Jules Verne wrote about them and a century and a half later they happened | 然而儒勒·凡尔纳写下了他们 在一个半世纪后他们发生了 |
| 767 | We'll be experimenting on civilisations really, civilisations of AI agents | 我们将会在人工智能特工的文明中进行实验 |
| 768 | Once the experiments start going, it's going to be the most exciting thing ever so how will we get sleep? | 一旦实验开始, 这将是有史以来最激动人心的事情 我们怎么睡觉? |
| 769 | I won't be able to sleep | 我睡不着 |
| 770 | For AGI it will be able to do any cognitive task that a person can do and it will be able to scale potentially far beyond that | 对于AGI来说,它将能够完成一个人能够完成的任何认知任务,并且能够大大超越这个范围。 |
| 771 | It's really impossible for us to imagine the outputs of a super intelligent entity | 我们无法想象一个超级智能实体的输出 |
| 772 | It's like asking a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask a gorilla to ask | 像是要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大猩猩要求大 |
| 773 | to imagine, you know, what Einstein does | 想象一下爱因斯坦会做什么 |
| 774 | when he produces the theory of relativity. | 当他提出相对论时 |
| 775 | People often ask me these questions like, | 人们经常问我这些问题 比如, |
| 776 | what happens if you're wrong and AGI is quite far away? | 如果你错了 AGI离得很远怎么办? |
| 777 | I never worry about that. | 我从不担心这个 |
| 778 | I actually worry about the reverse. | 我其实担心的是相反 |
| 779 | I actually worry that it's coming faster | 我真的担心它会飞得更快 |
| 780 | than we can really prepare for. | 比我们真的可以准备。 |
| 781 | It really feels like we're in a race to AGI. | 感觉我们好像在和AGI比赛 |
| 782 | The prototypes and the models that we are developing now | 我们现在开发的原型和模型 |
| 783 | are actually transforming the space | 正在改变空间 |
| 784 | of what we know about intelligence. | 了解我们掌握的情报 |
| 785 | Recently, we've had agents that are powerful enough | 最近我们有足够强大的特工 |
| 786 | to actually start playing games and teams | 开始玩游戏和团队 |
| 787 | and competing against other teams. | 并与其他团队竞争。 |
| 788 | We're seeing cooperative social dynamics | 我们看到了合作社会动态 |
| 789 | coming out of agents where we haven't pre-programmed in | 从我们没有事先计划好的特工那里出来 |
| 790 | any of these sorts of dynamics. | 任何这样的动态。 |
| 791 | It's completely learned from their own experiences. | 完全借鉴了他们自己的经历. |
| 792 | When we started, we thought we were out to build | 当我们开始,我们以为 我们出去建造 |
| 793 | an intelligent system and convince the world | 一个聪明的系统 说服世界 |
| 794 | that we've done it. | 我们做到了。 |
| 795 | We're now starting to wonder whether we're gonna build | 我们现在开始怀疑 我们是否要建造 |
| 796 | systems that we're not convinced are fully intelligent | 我们不相信的系统是完全智能的 |
| 797 | and we're trying to convince the world that they're not. | 我们试图说服世界 他们不是。 |
| 798 | Hi, Alpha. | 嗨,阿尔法。 |
| 799 | Hello there. | 哈啰 |
| 800 | Where are we today? | 我们今天在哪里? |
| 801 | You're at the Museum of Modern Art in New York City. | 你在纽约市现代艺术博物馆 |
| 802 | Kind of. | 有点 |
| 803 | What painting is this? | 这是什么画? |
| 804 | This is the Creation of Adam by Michelangelo. | 这是米开朗基罗创作的亚当. |
| 805 | I don't think that painting is in New York City. | 我觉得这幅画不在纽约市 |
| 806 | You're right. | 你说得对 |
| 807 | It's in the Vatican City. | 梵志城内. |
| 808 | Do you think that's where we are? | 你觉得我们在这里吗? |
| 809 | No. | 没有 |
| 810 | Looking at this. | 看这个 |
| 811 | You're looking at a digital copy of the painting? | 你在看画的数码拷贝吗? |
| 812 | Yes. | 对 |
| 813 | Who lives in this house? | 谁住在这房子里? |
| 814 | An astronaut. | 一个宇航员。 |
| 815 | What's this astronaut's name? | 这个宇航员叫什么名字? |
| 816 | His name is Mark. | 他叫马克 |
| 817 | This is a famous equation by Albert Einstein. | 这是阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的著名方程式. |
| 818 | It shows that energy and mass are equivalent. | 它表明能量和质量是相等的. |
| 819 | How would you explain it to a five-year-old? | 你怎么解释给一个五岁的孩子? |
| 820 | Well, imagine you have a big rock | 想象一下你有一个大石头 |
| 821 | and you want to know how much it weighs. | 你想知道它有多重吗? |
| 822 | Is Mark in danger? | 马克有危险吗? |
| 823 | No, Mark is not in danger. | 不,马克没有危险。 |
| 824 | Why is that? | 为什么? |
| 825 | Because the dinosaur is not real. | 因为恐龙不是真的 |
| 826 | All right, why could you not answer my question? | 好吧,你为什么不回答我的问题? |
| 827 | I think I couldn't answer your question | 我想我无法回答你的问题 |
| 828 | because I don't know enough about the subject. | 因为我对这个话题了解不够 |
| 829 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 830 | How could you learn more about the subject? | 你怎么能多了解这个话题? |
| 831 | I can learn more about the subject | 我可以多了解这个话题 |
| 832 | by reading books, articles, and websites. | 阅读书籍、文章和网站。 |
| 833 | You can teach me. | 汝能教诲我. |
| 834 | My conclusion is if you now think about | 我的结论是,如果你现在考虑 |
| 835 | what we're doing is learning from all humans, | 我们正在做的是学习 从所有人类, |
| 836 | all their knowledge at once, the internet, | 他们所有的知识,同时,互联网, |
| 837 | you would actually know a lot about the world. | 你会知道很多关于世界。 |
| 838 | Like a significant portion of everything humans can do | 就像人类所能做的每件事中 很大一部分 |
| 839 | and now I think it's more like, | 现在我觉得更像是 |
| 840 | well, it might just all work. | 好吧,它可能只是所有的工作。 |
| 841 | This is a big moment. | 这是一个重大的时刻。 |
| 842 | Who is this? | 你是谁? |
| 843 | This is God reaching out to Adam. | 这是上帝联系亚当。 |
| 844 | The advent of AGI will divide human history into two parts, | AGI的出现将人类历史分为两个部分, |
| 845 | the part up to that point and the part after that point. | 到那个点为止,到那个点以后为止。 |
| 846 | Why is he reaching out to touch Adam? | 他为什么要接触亚当? |
| 847 | God is reaching out to touch Adam to give him life. | 上帝正在伸手去接触亚当 给他生命。 |
| 848 | It will give us a tool that can completely reinvent | 它会给我们一个可以彻底重塑的工具 |
| 849 | our entire civilization. | 我们的整个文明。 |
| 850 | What does this painting mean to you? | 这幅画对你意味着什么? |
| 851 | The painting means a lot to me. | 这幅画对我很重要 |
| 852 | Okay, like what? | 好吧,比如说? |
| 853 | I think the painting's a reminder | 我认为这幅画是提醒 |
| 854 | that we are all connected to each other | 我们彼此相连 |
| 855 | and that we are all part of something bigger than ourselves. | 而我们都是比自己更大的事物的一部分。 |
| 856 | That's pretty nice. | 真不错 |
| 857 | When you cross that barrier of AGI, | 当你越过AGI的屏障 |
| 858 | it might happen one day in the future too. | 将来有一天也会这样 |
| 859 | Now, actually, this could really happen in a timeframe | 现在,实际上, 这真的可能在时间范围内发生 |
| 860 | that's sort of like on my watch, you know. | 这有点像我的手表,你知道的。 |
| 861 | Something changes in your thinking. | 你的想法有些改变 |
| 862 | We have to be careful with how we use it | 我们要小心如何使用它 |
| 863 | and thoughtful about how we deploy it. | 深思熟虑地思考我们如何部署它。 |
| 864 | You'd have to consider what's its top-level goal, | 你得考虑一下它的顶级目标是什么 |
| 865 | if it's to keep humans happy. | 如果是为了让人类快乐 |
| 866 | Which set of humans, what does happiness mean? | 什么样的人,幸福意味着什么? |
| 867 | A lot of our collective goals are very tricky, | 我们的很多集体目标都非常棘手 |
| 868 | even for humans to figure out. | 即使是人类也想通了 |
| 869 | Technology always embeds our values. | 技术总是植根于我们的价值观。 |
| 870 | It's not just technical, it's ethical as well. | 这不仅仅是技术性的,也是道德性的. |
| 871 | So we've got to be really cautious | 所以我们要小心 |
| 872 | about what we're building into it. | 关于我们正在建设什么在里面。 |
| 873 | The reality is that this is an algorithm | 现实是,这是一个算法 |
| 874 | that has been created by people, by us. | 由人类和我们创造的 |
| 875 | What does it mean to endow our agents | 给我们的特工带来什么意义 |
| 876 | with the same kind of values that we hold dear? | 与我们所珍视的同样价值? |
| 877 | What is the purpose of making these AI systems | 建立这些人工智能系统的目的是什么? |
| 878 | appear so human-like so that they do capture hearts and minds? | 看上去像人一样 所以他们能捕捉人心? |
| 879 | Because they're kind of exploiting | 因为他们在剥削 |
| 880 | a human vulnerability also. | 人类的脆弱性。 |
| 881 | The heart and mind of these systems | 这些系统的心脏和心灵 |
| 882 | are very much human-generated data | 是人类创造的数据 |
| 883 | for all the good and the bad. | 为一切善恶. |
| 884 | There is a parallel between the Industrial Revolution, | 工业革命是平行的, |
| 885 | which was an incredible moment of displacement | 是一个不可思议的流离失所时刻 |
| 886 | and the current technological change created by AI. | 以及大赦国际目前造成的技术变革。 |
| 887 | We have to think about who's displaced | 我们必须考虑谁流离失所 |
| 888 | and how we're going to support them. | 以及如何支持他们。 |
| 889 | This technology is coming a lot sooner | 这个技术很快就要来了 |
| 890 | than really the world knows or kind of, | 比真正的世界知道或那种, |
| 891 | even we, 18, 24 months ago, thought. | 甚至我们,18,24个月前,想。 |
| 892 | So there's a tremendous opportunity, | 因此,有一个巨大的机会, |
| 893 | tremendous excitement, | 巨大的兴奋, |
| 894 | but also tremendous responsibility. | 同时也是巨大的责任。 |
| 895 | It's happening so fast. | 事情发生得太快了 |
| 896 | How will we govern it? | 我们怎么治理它? |
| 897 | How will we decide what is okay | 如何决定什么是好的 |
| 898 | and what is not okay? | 有什么不对劲? |
| 899 | AI-generated images are getting more sophisticated. | AI生成的图像越来越复杂. |
| 900 | The use of AI for generating disinformation | 利用AI制造虚假信息 |
| 901 | and manipulating human psychology | 操纵人类心理学 |
| 902 | is only going to get much, much worse. | 只会更糟 |
| 903 | 无论我们是否在DeepMind做,AGI都会来。 | |
| 904 | It's going to happen, | 一定会发生的 |
| 905 | so we better create institutions to protect us. | 所以我们最好建立机构来保护我们 |
| 906 | It's going to require global coordination, | 这需要全球协调 |
| 907 | and I worry that humanity is increasingly | 我担心人类越来越 |
| 908 | getting worse at that rather than better. | 越来越糟了,而不是更好。 |
| 909 | We need a lot more people | 我们需要更多的人 |
| 910 | really taking this seriously and thinking about this. | 认真对待这件事,好好想想 |
| 911 | It's serious. | 这是严重的。 |
| 912 | It worries me. | 这让我担心。 |
| 913 | It worries me, yeah. | 这让我担心,是的。 |
| 914 | If you received an email saying, | 如果你收到一封邮件 |
| 915 | this superior alien civilization | 这个优越的外星文明 |
| 916 | is going to arrive on Earth, | 即将到达地球 |
| 917 | there would be emergency meetings of all the governments. | 所有政府都会召开紧急会议 |
| 918 | We would go into overdrive | 我们过去开车 |
| 919 | trying to figure out how to prepare. | 试图找出如何准备。 |
| 920 | The arrival of AGI will be the most important moment | AGI的到来将是最重要的时刻 |
| 921 | that we have ever faced. | 我们曾经面对。 |
| 922 | My dream was that on the way to AGI, | 我的梦想是在去AGI的路上 |
| 923 | we would create revolutionary technologies | 我们会创造革命技术 |
| 924 | that would be of use to humanity. | 这对人类有帮助。 |
| 925 | 这就是我想要的 AlphaFold。 | |
| 926 | I think more important than ever | 我觉得比以前更重要 |
| 927 | that we should solve the protein folding problem. | 我们应该解决蛋白质折叠问题 |
| 928 | This is going to be really hard, | 这会非常困难, |
| 929 | but I won't give up until it's done. | 但我不会放弃 直到它完成。 |
| 930 | We need to double down and go as fast as possible from here. | 我们需要加倍 越快越好 |
| 931 | I think we've got no time to lose, | 我想我们没时间了 |
| 932 | so we are going to make protein folding a strike team. | 所以我们要把蛋白质折叠成一个攻击小组 |
| 933 | The team lead for this strike team will be John. | 这支突击队的队长将是约翰. |
| 934 | We've seen our effect. | 我们已经看到了我们的效果。 |
| 935 | We're going to try everything, kitchen sink, the whole lot. | 我们要尝试一切, 厨房水槽, 全部。 |
| 936 | It's about proving we can solve the whole problem. | 就是要证明我们能解决问题 |
| 937 | And I felt that to do that, | 而我觉得这样做, |
| 938 | we would need to incorporate some domain knowledge. | 我们需要纳入一些领域知识。 |
| 939 | We had some fantastic engineers on it, | 我们有一些伟大的工程师在上面, |
| 940 | but they were not trained in biology. | 但他们没有接受生物训练。 |
| 941 | As a computational biologist, | 作为一个计算生物学家, |
| 942 | 当我一开始加入AlphaFold队时 | |
| 943 | I didn't immediately feel confident about anything. | 我对任何事都没有信心 |
| 944 | You know, whether we were going to be successful. | 你知道,我们是否会成功。 |
| 945 | Biology is so ridiculously complicated. | 生物学是如此荒谬的复杂。 |
| 946 | It just felt like this very far-off mountain to climb. | 它只是感觉像 这个非常遥远的山爬。 |
| 947 | I'm starting to play with annealing temperatures | 我开始玩 阴暗的温度 |
| 948 | to see if we can get... | 看看我们能不能... |
| 949 | I was one of the few people on the team | 我是团队中为数不多的人之一 |
| 950 | who'd done work in biology before. | 他以前在生物学领域工作过 |
| 951 | You feel this huge sense of responsibility. | 你感觉到这种巨大的责任感。 |
| 952 | We're expecting you to do great things on this strike team. | 我们期待你在这支罢工队里 做点伟大的事 |
| 953 | That's terrifying. | 这是可怕的。 |
| 954 | But one of the reasons why I wanted to come here | 但我来这里的原因之一 |
| 955 | was to do something that matters. | 做点重要的事 |
| 956 | This is the number of missing things. | 此是失物之数. |
| 957 | What about making use of whatever understanding you have of physics, | 利用你对物理的理解怎么样? |
| 958 | like using that as a source of data? | 喜欢用它作为数据的来源? |
| 959 | But if it's systematic... | 但是,如果它是系统的... |
| 960 | That can't be right, though. | 这不可能是正确的,虽然。 |
| 961 | If it's systematically wrong in some weird way, | 如果以奇怪的方式 系统错误 |
| 962 | you might be learning that systematically wrong physics. | 你可能正在学习 系统错误的物理。 |
| 963 | The team is already trying to think of multiple ways. | 团队已经在尝试着思考多种方式. |
| 964 | Biological relevance is what we're going for. | 生物相关性就是我们的目标 |
| 965 | So we rewrote the whole data pipeline | 所以我们重置整个数据管道 |
| 966 | 那个AlphaFault用来学习。 | |
| 967 | You can't force the creative phase. | 你不能强迫创造阶段。 |
| 968 | You have to give space for those flowers to bloom. | 你得给这些花开花空间 |
| 969 | 我们赢了CASP。 | |
| 970 | Then it was back to the drawing board | 然后又回到了画板上 |
| 971 | and, like, what are our new ideas? | 我们的新想法是什么? |
| 972 | And then it's taken a little while, I would say, | 然后花了一点时间,我会说, |
| 973 | for them to get back to where they were, | 为了让他们回到原点 |
| 974 | but with the new ideas. | 但是有了新的想法。 |
| 975 | And then now I think we're seeing the benefits of the new ideas. | 现在我觉得我们看到了新想法的好处。 |
| 976 | They can go further, right? | 他们可以走得更远,对吧? |
| 977 | So that's a really important moment. | 所以这是一个非常重要的时刻。 |
| 978 | I have seen that moment so many times now, | 我见过这个时刻这么多次了, |
| 979 | but I know what that means now, | 但我知道这意味着什么 |
| 980 | and I know this is the time now to press. | 我知道现在是时候按了 |
| 981 | Adding side chains improves direct folding. | 加入侧链可以改善直接折叠. |
| 982 | That drove a lot of the progress. | 这推动了很多进展。 |
| 983 | We'll talk about that. | 我们来谈谈 |
| 984 | Great. | 不错 |
| 985 | The last four months, we've made enormous gains. | 过去四个月,我们取得了巨大的成就. |
| 986 | During CASP 13, it would take us a day or two | 在CASP 13期间,需要一两天时间 |
| 987 | to fold one of the proteins, | 折叠一个蛋白质, |
| 988 | and now we're folding, like, hundreds of thousands a second. | 现在我们一秒折叠几十万 |
| 989 | Yeah, it's just insane. | 是啊,这太疯狂了。 |
| 990 | Now this is a model that is orders of magnitude faster, | 现在这个模型的速度更快 |
| 991 | while at the same time being even better. | 同时也更好 |
| 992 | We're getting a lot of structures into the high-accuracy regime. | 我们得到了很多的结构 进入高精确度政权。 |
| 993 | We're rapidly improving to a system | 我们正在迅速改进到一个系统 |
| 994 | that is starting to really get at the core and heart of the problem. | 这开始真正成为问题的核心和核心。 |
| 995 | It's great work. | 这是伟大的工作。 |
| 996 | It looks like we're in good shape. | 看起来我们状态不错 |
| 997 | So we've got, what, six, five weeks left, six weeks? | 所以,我们有,什么,六,五周 剩下的,六周? |
| 998 | So what's... | 那么,这是... |
| 999 | Have you got enough computer power? | 你有足够的电脑电源吗? |
| 1000 | We could use more. | 我们还需要更多 |
| 1001 | I was nervous about CASP, | 我对CASP很紧张 |
| 1002 | but as the system is starting to come together, | 但随着系统开始形成 |
| 1003 | I don't feel as nervous. | 我不觉得紧张。 |
| 1004 | I feel like things have sort of come into perspective recently, | 我觉得最近有些事情发生了 |
| 1005 | and, you know, it's going to be fine. | 而且,你知道, 它会没事的。 |
| 1006 | The Prime Minister has announced the most drastic limits to our lives | 首相已经宣布了我们生命的极限 |
| 1007 | that the UK has ever seen in living memory. | 英国在记忆中见过的 |
| 1008 | I must give the British people a very simple instruction. | 我必须给英国人民一个非常简单的指示。 |
| 1009 | You must stay at home. | 你必须呆在家里。 |
| 1010 | It feels like we're in a science fiction novel. | 我们好像在科幻小说里 |
| 1011 | You know, I'm delivering food to my parents, | 你知道,我送食物给我的父母, |
| 1012 | making sure they stay isolated and safe. | 确保他们保持隔离和安全。 |
| 1013 | I think it just highlights the incredible need for AI-assisted science. | 我认为它只是凸显了对AI辅助科学的不可思议的需求. |
| 1014 | You always know that something like this is a possibility, | 你总是知道这样的事是可能的, |
| 1015 | but nobody ever really believes | 但没人真正相信 |
| 1016 | that it's going to happen in their lifetime, though. | 他们的一生将会发生 |
| 1017 | Are you recording yet? | 你在录音吗? |
| 1018 | Yes. | 对 |
| 1019 | Good morning, Anna. | 早上好,安娜,你好吗? |
| 1020 | Hey. | 顿 |
| 1021 | Good. | 不错 |
| 1022 | CASP has started. | CASP已经开始了 |
| 1023 | It's nice I get to sit around in my pajama bottoms all day. | 能整天坐在睡衣底里真好 |
| 1024 | I never thought I would live in a house where so much was going on. | 我从来没有想过我会住在一个 有很多事情发生的房子。 |
| 1025 | I would be trying to solve protein folding in one room, | 我会试图解决蛋白质折叠在一个房间, |
| 1026 | and my husband would be trying to make robots walk in the other. | 我丈夫会试图让机器人走进另一边 |
| 1027 | One of the hardest proteins we've gotten in CASP thus far | 目前为止我们在CASP中最难得到的蛋白质之一 |
| 1028 | 是一种SARS-CoV-2蛋白质,称为ORF8. | |
| 1029 | ORF8 is a coronavirus protein. | ORF8是一种冠状病毒蛋白质. |
| 1030 | It's one of the main proteins that dampens the immune system. | 它是抑制免疫系统的主要蛋白质之一. |
| 1031 | We tried really hard to improve our prediction. | 我们非常努力地改善我们的预测。 |
| 1032 | Like, really, really hard. | 像,真的,真的很难。 |
| 1033 | Probably the most time that we have ever spent on a single target. | 也许是我们花在单一目标上的时间 |
| 1034 | To the point where my husband is like, | 到我丈夫喜欢的地步 |
| 1035 | it's midnight, you need to go to bed. | 现在是午夜,你需要睡觉。 |
| 1036 | So, I think we're at day 102 since lockdown. | 所以,我想我们是在102天 从关闭。 |
| 1037 | My daughter is keeping a journal. | 我女儿有日记 |
| 1038 | Now you can go out as much as you want. | 现在你可以随便出去了 |
| 1039 | We have received the last target. | 我们收到了最后的目标。 |
| 1040 | They've said they will be sending out no more targets in our category of CASP. | 他们说,他们不会再派出 目标在我们的CASP类别。 |
| 1041 | So, we're just making sure we give the best possible answer. | 所以,我们只是确保 我们给出最好的答案。 |
| 1042 | As soon as we started to get the results, | 我们一拿到结果 |
| 1043 | I'd sit down and start looking at how close did anybody come | 我会坐下来,开始看看 有多少人接近 |
| 1044 | to getting the protein structures correct. | 让蛋白质结构正确 |
| 1045 | Oh, hey, Dan. | 哦,嘿,丹,你好吗? |
| 1046 | It is an unbelievable thing. | 真是不可思议 |
| 1047 | CASP has finally ended. | CASP终于结束了. |
| 1048 | I think it's at least time to raise a glass. | 我觉得至少该举杯了 |
| 1049 | I don't know if everyone has a glass or something that they can raise. | 我不知道每个人是否有杯子 或者他们可以提的东西。 |
| 1050 | If not, raise, I don't know, your laptops. | 如果不行,举起你的笔记本电脑 |
| 1051 | I'll probably make a speech in a minute. | 我马上就要发表演讲了 |
| 1052 | I feel like I should, but I just have no idea what to say. | 我觉得我应该, 但我只是不知道说什么。 |
| 1053 | So, let's see. | 所以,让我们看看。 |
| 1054 | I feel like a reading of email is the right thing to do. | 我觉得阅读电子邮件是正确的做法。 |
| 1055 | When John said, I'm going to read an email at a team social, | 当约翰说,我要去 一个团队社交, |
| 1056 | I thought, wow, John, you know how to have fun. | 我想,哇,约翰, 你知道如何有乐趣。 |
| 1057 | We're going to read an email now. | 我们现在要读一封邮件 |
| 1058 | I got this about four o'clock today. | 我今约四时得此. |
| 1059 | It is from John Malt and I'll just read it. | 这是约翰·马尔特写的 我读一下 |
| 1060 | It says, as I expect, you know, your group has performed amazingly well | 上面写着,正如我所期望的,你知道的, 你们的团队表现得很好 |
| 1061 | in CASP 14, both relative to other groups and an absolute model accuracy. | 在CASP 14中,无论是相对于其他组还是绝对模型精度. |
| 1062 | Congratulations on this work. | 恭喜你做这个工作 |
| 1063 | It is really outstanding. | 这是非常出色的。 |
| 1064 | These structures were so good, it was just amazing. | 这些结构很好,太神奇了 |
| 1065 | After half a century, | 半个世纪后 |
| 1066 | we finally have a solution to the protein folding problem. | 我们终于有办法解决蛋白质折叠问题了 |
| 1067 | When I saw this email, I read it, I go, oh, shit. | 当我看到这个邮件,我读它,我走了,哦,狗屎。 |
| 1068 | And my wife goes, is everything OK? | 我妻子去,一切都好吗? |
| 1069 | I call my parents and just say, hey, mom, got something to tell you. | 我打电话给我的父母,只是说, 嘿,妈妈,有件事要告诉你。 |
| 1070 | We've done this thing and it might be kind of a big deal. | 我们已经做了这件事,这也许是件大事。 |
| 1071 | So when I learned of the CASP 14 results, I was gobsmacked. | 所以当我得知CASP 14的结果时,我被吓坏了。 |
| 1072 | I was just excited. | 我只是兴奋。 |
| 1073 | This is a problem that I was beginning to think | 我开始想这个问题 |
| 1074 | would not get solved in my lifetime. | 我这辈子不会解决的 |
| 1075 | Now we had a tool that can be used practically by scientists. | 现在我们有一个工具, 科学家可以实际使用。 |
| 1076 | These people asking us, you know, I've got this protein involved in malaria | 这些人问我们,你知道, 我有这种蛋白质 与疟疾有关 |
| 1077 | or, you know, some infectious disease. | 或者,你知道,一些传染病。 |
| 1078 | We don't know the structure. | 我们不知道结构 |
| 1079 | Can we use alfalfol to solve it? | 我们可以用阿法尔福醇来解决吗? |
| 1080 | We can easily predict all known sequences in a month. | 我们可以很容易地预测一个月内所有已知的序列. |
| 1081 | All known sequences in a month? | 一个月后所有已知的序列? |
| 1082 | Yeah, easily. | 是啊,轻松。 |
| 1083 | A billion, two billion. | 十亿二十亿. |
| 1084 | Um, and they're... | 嗯,他们... |
| 1085 | Why don't we just do that? | 我们为什么不这样做呢? |
| 1086 | Yeah, we should just do the blood. | 是啊,我们应该只是做血。 |
| 1087 | Well, I mean, with like... | 我是说... |
| 1088 | Way better. | 好点了 |
| 1089 | Why don't we just do that? | 我们为什么不这样做呢? |
| 1090 | Well, so that's one of the options, like we... | 那么,这是其中之一的选择, 像我们... |
| 1091 | Right. | 对 |
| 1092 | You know, there's this... | 你知道,这个... |
| 1093 | We should just... That's a great idea. | 我们应该... 这主意不错 |
| 1094 | We should just run every protein in existence. | 我们只要运行所有存在的蛋白质。 |
| 1095 | And then release that. | 然后释放它。 |
| 1096 | Why didn't someone suggest this before? | 为什么之前没人建议? |
| 1097 | Of course that's what we should do. | 当然,我们应该这样做。 |
| 1098 | Why are we thinking about making a service | 为什么我们想做一个服务 |
| 1099 | and then people submit their protein? | 然后人们提交蛋白质? |
| 1100 | We just fold everything and then give it to everyone in the world. | 我们只是折叠一切 然后把它给世界上的每一个人。 |
| 1101 | Who knows how many discoveries we've made from that? | 谁知道我们从中发现了多少? |
| 1102 | Demis called us up and said, we want to make this open. | 戴米斯给我们打电话说 我们要打开这个 |
| 1103 | Not just make sure the code is open, | 不只是确保代码是开放的, |
| 1104 | but we're going to make it really easy | 但我们会让事情变得非常简单 |
| 1105 | for everybody to get access to the predictions. | 让每个人都能了解预测 |
| 1106 | That is fantastic. | 这太棒了。 |
| 1107 | It's like drawing back the curtain, | 这就像拉回窗帘, |
| 1108 | seeing the whole world of protein structures. | 可以看到整个蛋白质结构的世界 |
| 1109 | They released the structures of 200 million proteins. | 它们释放出2亿个蛋白质的结构. |
| 1110 | These are gifts to humanity. | 这是给人类的礼物。 |
| 1111 | The moment Alpha Fold is live to the world, | 阿尔法·福德活到世界的那一刻 |
| 1112 | we will no longer be the most important people in Alpha Fold's story. | 我们不再是阿尔法·福德的故事中最重要的人了 |
| 1113 | I can't quite believe it's all out. | 我无法相信这一切。 |
| 1114 | Oh, my God. | 须菩提. |
| 1115 | I think it is up there. | 我想就在那边 |
| 1116 | Oh, loads of activity in Japan. | 哦,日本的活动负荷。 |
| 1117 | We have 655 users. | 我们有655个用户。 |
| 1118 | Currently we have 100,000 concurrent users. | 目前,我们有10万同时使用的用户。 |
| 1119 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 1120 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 1121 | It's just crazy. | 这太疯狂了 |
| 1122 | What an absolutely unbelievable effort from everyone. | 多么令人难以置信的努力 每个人。 |
| 1123 | It's going to all remember these moments for the rest of our lives. | 我们一辈子都会记住这些时刻 |
| 1124 | I'm excited about Alpha Fold. | 我对阿尔法·福德很兴奋 |
| 1125 | For my research, it's already propelling lots of progress. | 对于我的研究,它已经在推动许多进展。 |
| 1126 | And this is just the beginning. | 这仅仅是开始。 |
| 1127 | My guess is every single biological and chemistry achievement | 我猜每个生物和化学成就 |
| 1128 | will be related to Alpha Fold in some way. | 和阿尔法·福德有某种关系 |
| 1129 | Alpha Fold was an index moment. | 阿尔法·福德是一个指数瞬间。 |
| 1130 | It's a moment that people will not forget | 这是一个人们不会忘记的时刻 |
| 1131 | because the world changed. | 因为世界变了 |
| 1132 | Everybody's realized now | 大家都意识到了 |
| 1133 | what Shane and I have known for more than 20 years, | 肖恩和我认识20多年了 |
| 1134 | that AI is going to be the most important thing | AI是最重要的东西 |
| 1135 | humanity's ever going to invent. | 人类永远不会发明 |
| 1136 | We will shortly be arriving at our final destination. | 我们很快就会到达我们的目的地。 |
| 1137 | The pace of innovation and capabilities is accelerating. | 创新步伐和能力加快. |
| 1138 | Like a boulder rolling down a hill that we've kicked off | 就像一块巨石滚下我们踢开的山 |
| 1139 | and now is continuing to gather speed. | 现在正在继续加快速度。 |
| 1140 | We are at a crossroads in human history. | 我们正处于人类历史的十字路口。 |
| 1141 | AI has the potential to transform our lives in every aspect. | 大赦国际有可能在各个方面改变我们的生活。 |
| 1142 | No less important than the discovery of electricity. | 其重要性不亚于发现电力. |
| 1143 | We should be looking at the scientific method | 我们应该研究科学方法 |
| 1144 | and trying to understand each step of the way in a rigorous way. | 并试图以严谨的方式理解每一步的道路。 |
| 1145 | This is a moment of profound opportunity. | 这是一个深刻的机会的时刻。 |
| 1146 | Harnessing this technology could eclipse anything we have ever known. | 利用这种技术可以消灭我们所知道的任何东西。 |
| 1147 | Hi, Alpha. | 嗨,阿尔法。 |
| 1148 | Hi. | 顿 |
| 1149 | What is this? | 这是什么? |
| 1150 | This is a chessboard. | 这是棋盘 |
| 1151 | If I was to play white, what move would you recommend? | 如果我装白牌,你建议怎么做? |
| 1152 | I would recommend that you move your pawn from E2 to E4. | 我建议你把你的棋子从E2调到E4 |
| 1153 | And now if you were black, what would you play now? | 如果你是黑人,你会弹什么? |
| 1154 | I would play the Sicilian defense. | 我会打西西里防御。 |
| 1155 | That's a good choice. | 这是个好选择。 |
| 1156 | Thanks. | 谢谢 |
| 1157 | So what do you see? | 你看见什么了? |
| 1158 | What is this object? | 这是什么物体? |
| 1159 | This is a pencil sculpture. | 这是一个铅笔雕塑。 |
| 1160 | What happens if I move one of the pencils? | 如果我动了铅笔怎么办? |
| 1161 | If you move one of the pencils, the sculpture will fall apart. | 如果移动其中的铅笔,雕塑就会崩溃. |
| 1162 | I'd better leave it alone, then. | 那我还是别管了 |
| 1163 | That's probably a good idea. | 这可能是个好主意。 |
| 1164 | AGI is on the horizon now. | AGI已经到了地平线 |
| 1165 | Very clearly, the next generation is going to live in a future world | 很明显,下一代将生活在未来世界 |
| 1166 | where things will be radically different because of AI. | 因为AI,事情会变得完全不同 |
| 1167 | And if you want to steward that responsibly, | 如果你想负责地管理这个 |
| 1168 | every moment is vital. | 每一刻都至关重要。 |
| 1169 | This is the moment I've been living my whole life for. | 这是我一生中生活的那一刻 |
| 1170 | It's just a good thinking day. | 这只是一个很好的思考日。 |
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