不假思索的力量｜马尔科姆：如何通过潜意识做出精准判断
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | I'm glad you could all join us this afternoon. | 很高兴你们今天下午能加入我们 |
| 0:04 | I'm not mic'd. | 我没有麦克风。 |
| 0:07 | Am I mic'd now? | 我现在有麦克风了吗? |
| 0:10 | Did you just see that usage of technology? | 你刚才看到技术的用法了吗? |
| 0:13 | I'm very proud of myself. | 我为自己感到骄傲 |
| 0:15 | My name's Tamara Pesic. | 我叫塔玛拉·佩西奇 |
| 0:16 | This is the Visiting Speaker Series. | 这是客座演说家系列。 |
| 0:18 | Our guest today is Malcolm Gladwell. | 今天的客人是马尔科姆·格拉德韦尔 |
| 0:20 | I've promised to keep this very short. | 我答应过要保持很短的 |
| 0:23 | He is the author of the amazingly popular book, | 他是这本令人惊叹的书的作者, |
展开字幕全文（1396 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I'm glad you could all join us this afternoon. | 很高兴你们今天下午能加入我们 |
| 2 | I'm not mic'd. | 我没有麦克风。 |
| 3 | Am I mic'd now? | 我现在有麦克风了吗? |
| 4 | Did you just see that usage of technology? | 你刚才看到技术的用法了吗? |
| 5 | I'm very proud of myself. | 我为自己感到骄傲 |
| 6 | My name's Tamara Pesic. | 我叫塔玛拉·佩西奇 |
| 7 | This is the Visiting Speaker Series. | 这是客座演说家系列。 |
| 8 | Our guest today is Malcolm Gladwell. | 今天的客人是马尔科姆·格拉德韦尔 |
| 9 | I've promised to keep this very short. | 我答应过要保持很短的 |
| 10 | He is the author of the amazingly popular book, | 他是这本令人惊叹的书的作者, |
| 11 | The Chipping Point, and is also the author of the soon-to-be | 芯片点,同时也是即将到来的作者 |
| 12 | popular book, Blink, which is all about making decisions | 流行的书,Blink, 这一切都是做决定 |
| 13 | in an incredibly fast method. | 以惊人的快速方法。 |
| 14 | And he explains it in such a wonderful left-brained way | 他用如此美妙的左脑来解释 |
| 15 | that you might actually agree with him. | 你也许同意他的意见 |
| 16 | And I'm really excited to hear what he has to say | 我真的很兴奋听到他说什么 |
| 17 | and to hear the discussion afterwards. | 并听到讨论之后。 |
| 18 | Please help me welcome the brilliant genius, | 请帮我欢迎这位天才天才 |
| 19 | Malcolm Gladwell. | 马尔科姆·格拉德韦尔. |
| 20 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 21 | I'm neither brilliant or genius, but I'll let that slide. | 我既不聪明也不天才 但我会放轻松的 |
| 22 | It's great to be back here. | 回来真好 |
| 23 | I was here several years ago for The Chipping Point, | 几年前,我在这里为"芯片点", |
| 24 | although someone just told me, someone ominously, | 虽然有人刚刚告诉我, 有人不祥, |
| 25 | that my appearance back then had been taped and archived. | 当时的我外表被录音和存档 |
| 26 | And I always feel slightly nervous when I hear that, | 我总是觉得有点紧张 当我听到这个, |
| 27 | because I just think, well, what if I | 因为我只是想,嗯,如果我 |
| 28 | said something several years ago that | 几年前说过 |
| 29 | is utterly incompatible with what I'm going to say today, | 这完全不符合我今天要说的话 |
| 30 | which is entirely possible, because my mind changes | 这完全有可能,因为我的思想改变 |
| 31 | constantly. | 不断的 |
| 32 | And so you can't hold me to anything I said before. | 那样你就不能按住我之前说的话 |
| 33 | That's my only request before we go anywhere. | 这是我去任何地方之前的唯一要求 |
| 34 | My new book, Blink, is about rapid cognition. | 我的新书"闪闪闪"是关于快速认知的 |
| 35 | And by that, I mean the kind of thinking | 我指的是那种想法 |
| 36 | that takes place in the blink of an eye, | 那是在眨眼中发生的, |
| 37 | as opposed to the kind of thinking | 而不是那种思维 |
| 38 | that we do consciously and deliberately | 我们自觉和故意的 |
| 39 | over some period of time. | 在一段时间内。 |
| 40 | And I use the word thinking, because I | 我用这个词思考,因为我 |
| 41 | think that what goes on in the kind of decisions | 想想在决定中会发生什么 |
| 42 | we make in the blink of an eye represent thinking. | 我们一眨眼就想着 |
| 43 | It's rational. | 理则理也. |
| 44 | It's just that it's operating below the level of awareness | 只是它运作在意识水平以下 |
| 45 | and operating by slightly different rules | 运行规则略有不同 |
| 46 | than the other kind of thinking, which we're very familiar with. | 而不是我们熟悉的另一种思维 |
| 47 | And the book is a call to kind of understand and appreciate | 这本书是需要理解和欣赏的 |
| 48 | the enormous power, both for good and ill, | 巨大的力量,无论好坏, |
| 49 | of that kind of thinking. | 这种想法。 |
| 50 | And I tell all kinds of different stories. | 我讲述了各种各样的不同的故事。 |
| 51 | And rather than try and summarize the book, what | 而不是试图总结这本书,什么 |
| 52 | I thought I would do is just tell you | 我想我会做的只是告诉你 |
| 53 | one story from the book, which I think | 书上的一个故事 我想 |
| 54 | might be of interest to many of you here, | 可能你们中很多人都感兴趣 |
| 55 | and also illustrate some of the things | 也说明一些事情 |
| 56 | that I'm worrying about thinking about in this book. | 我担心在这本书里会思考 |
| 57 | And it's a story about chairs, in particular | 这是一个关于椅子的故事,尤其是 |
| 58 | about a guy named Bill Stumpf. | 一个叫比尔·斯通夫的人 |
| 59 | And Bill Stumpf is a very, in a chair world, | Bill Stumpf是一个非常,在一个椅子世界, |
| 60 | Bill Stumpf is sort of the Michael Jordan. | 比尔·斯通普夫是迈克尔·乔丹 |
| 61 | If you were all in the chair business, | 如果你都是在做椅子生意的话 |
| 62 | you would all know who he is. | 你们都知道他是谁 |
| 63 | He's this legendary figure who worked a lot with Herman | 他是赫尔曼的传奇人物 |
| 64 | Miller. | 弥勒. |
| 65 | And over the years, in the 1980s, | 多年来,在1980年代, |
| 66 | he designed for them two really breakthrough chairs | 他为他们设计了两个真正突破的椅子 |
| 67 | called the Ergon and the Equa. | 叫做埃贡和埃夸 |
| 68 | And they were these sort of new ideas in office chairs. | 这些是办公室里的新想法。 |
| 69 | And in the late 80s, Herman Miller went to him and said, | 80年代末,赫尔曼·米勒去找他,说: |
| 70 | we'd like you to design a truly amazing, like the greatest | 我们希望你设计一个真正神奇的, 像最伟大的 |
| 71 | office chair ever. | 办公室椅永远。 |
| 72 | And just start with a blank sheet of paper. | 从一张空白纸开始 |
| 73 | So Stumpf went back to his lab, and he lives in Minneapolis, | 所以斯坦普夫回到实验室 他住在明尼阿波利斯 |
| 74 | and started from the beginning. | 从头开始 |
| 75 | He started over with chairs. | 他从椅子开始 |
| 76 | And he sort of looked at chairs and realized | 他看着椅子,意识到 |
| 77 | there were, at that point, all kinds of crazy things | 那时,有各种疯狂的事情 |
| 78 | about office chairs. | 关于办公室的椅子。 |
| 79 | It didn't make sense. | 这没有道理。 |
| 80 | For example, they had one-piece backs. | 比如说,他们只有一块背 |
| 81 | And if they had any kind of setting to adjust for the back, | 如果他们有适应背部的设置 |
| 82 | you would adjust the whole thing at once, | 你会立刻调整整件事, |
| 83 | which makes no sense, because you have an upper back | 这根本说不通,因为你有一个上背 |
| 84 | and a lower back, and your upper back and lower back | 和下背, 你的上背和下背 |
| 85 | have very, very different needs and requirements. | 有着非常,非常不同的需求和要求。 |
| 86 | And there's no single way of having a single setting which | 没有一个单一的设定 |
| 87 | will make your entire back happy. | 会让你整个背部快乐的 |
| 88 | So he decided he wanted to have a two-piece back to the chair. | 于是他决定自己想把两件拿回椅子上. |
| 89 | And then he realizes, well, that the way the chairs were built, | 然后他意识到 椅子的建造方式 |
| 90 | the seat pan and the seat back were | 锅和后座是 |
| 91 | connected in this very kind of linear fashion, | 以这种线性的方式连接, |
| 92 | so that if you tilted back on a chair, | 所以,如果你倾斜回到椅子上, |
| 93 | the seat pan would move out, which is insane. | 这太疯狂了 |
| 94 | Why would you want to lose the support of the seat pan | 为什么你要失去座位的支撑 |
| 95 | when you lean back on the chair? | 当你靠在椅子上时? |
| 96 | They should move independently. | 他们应该独立行动。 |
| 97 | And that failure to make them move independently | 无法让他们独立行动 |
| 98 | was causing a great deal of lower back strain. | 导致背部压力大大降低 |
| 99 | So he fixed that. | 所以他修好了这个 |
| 100 | And then he realized all kinds of things, | 然后他意识到各种各样的事情, |
| 101 | like the biggest problem with office chairs, | 像最大的问题 与办公椅, |
| 102 | like the ones you're in right now, | 就像你现在的一样 |
| 103 | is if I kept you here for four hours, | 如果我把你留在这里四个小时 |
| 104 | you would, which I won't do, you would get incredibly hot, | 你会的,我不会的, 你会变得非常热, |
| 105 | of course, right? | 当然,对不对? |
| 106 | You would get sticky. | 你会变得黏糊糊的。 |
| 107 | That material you're sitting on doesn't breathe very well. | 你坐着的材料呼吸不好 |
| 108 | So he needed material that breathed. | 所以他需要呼吸的物质。 |
| 109 | And he came up with this special mesh, | 他想出了这个特殊的网状, |
| 110 | which had the ability to stay cool, | 能够保持冷静, |
| 111 | even if you sat in it all day. | 即使你整天坐着 |
| 112 | But of course, mesh is difficult, because it's mesh. | 但是,当然,网状是困难的,因为它是网状的. |
| 113 | If you stretch it and then you get up, it'll pinch, right? | 如果你伸伸,然后你站起来, 它会捏,对不对? |
| 114 | So he had to make non-pinching mesh, | 因此,他不得不做非螺丝网, |
| 115 | which I don't know how many of you are engineers, | 我不知道你们中有多少人是工程师 |
| 116 | is an engineering task that is actually exceedingly difficult. | 这是一项实际上极其困难的工程任务。 |
| 117 | So anyway, he did all these things, | 所以无论如何,他做了所有这些事情, |
| 118 | and millions of dollars were spent in development. | 数百万美元用于发展。 |
| 119 | And he presented Herman Miller with this prototype. | 他向赫尔曼·米勒提出了这个原型. |
| 120 | And they said, it's fabulous. | 他们说,这是美妙的。 |
| 121 | Before we take it to market, | 在上市之前 |
| 122 | we have to do what people do in the chair world, | 我们必须做别人在椅子上做的事, |
| 123 | not just the chair world, | 不仅仅是椅子世界, |
| 124 | but in fact, all of the corporate world. | 但实际上,所有的企业世界。 |
| 125 | We're gonna market research it, right? | 我们要去市场研究,对不对? |
| 126 | We gotta see what people think of it. | 我们得看看人们怎么看 |
| 127 | Now in the chair world, you do things, | 现在在椅子世界, 你做一些事情, |
| 128 | you do two tests of things. | 你做两个测试的东西。 |
| 129 | You give people, you make people rate chairs | 你给别人,你让别人分座椅 |
| 130 | on a scale of one to 10 for comfort, | 宽裕的,分一至十级; |
| 131 | where one is hideous, or one is uncomfortable, | 在那里,一个人是丑陋的,或者一个人是不舒服的, |
| 132 | and 10 is perfect. | 和10是完美的。 |
| 133 | And you make them rate it one to 10 on aesthetics, | 你让他们把美学评分一到十 |
| 134 | where one is hideous and 10 is beautiful. | 在那里,一个是可怕的, 10是美丽的。 |
| 135 | And they took this chair out, | 他们把这把椅子拿出来了 |
| 136 | and the comfort scores were everything you would expect, | 和舒适的分数 是所有你期望, |
| 137 | sevens, eights, nines even, | 7、8、9个 |
| 138 | which is unheard of in the chair world. | 这在座椅上是闻所未闻的。 |
| 139 | And they were very, very happy about that. | 他们对此非常高兴。 |
| 140 | But then they did the aesthetic scores, | 但后来他们做了美学分 |
| 141 | and they got a slap in the face. | 他们的脸被打一巴掌。 |
| 142 | The people came back and said, gave it twos or threes, | 人民回来说,给它两三个, |
| 143 | which is, you can't go to market with a two or a three. | 也就是说 你不能用两三个去市场 |
| 144 | People were saying, this thing is so ugly, | 人们说,这东西太丑陋了, |
| 145 | there is no way I would ever, | 我永远也不会 |
| 146 | it looks like a piece of lawn furniture, | 它看起来像一块草坪家具, |
| 147 | it looks like a, one of the, | 它看起来像一个,一个, |
| 148 | I saw the results of one of the first focus groups. | 我看到了第一批焦点小组的结果。 |
| 149 | It was described as the exoskeleton | 它被描述为外骨骼 |
| 150 | of a giant prehistoric insect. | 一个巨大的史前昆虫。 |
| 151 | It was described as something off the set of Robocop, | 被描述为机器警察系统之外的东西, |
| 152 | which was a big movie back then. | 那是一部大电影 |
| 153 | It was, people hated it, right? | 那是,人们讨厌它,对不对? |
| 154 | And you can't, the rule of thumb in the chair world | 你不能,椅子世界的拇指规则 |
| 155 | is you really need to score above seven | 你真的需要分数超过7 |
| 156 | on both those dimensions to be able to sell something, | 这两个维度 能够卖出一些东西, |
| 157 | and they didn't have it. | 他们没有 |
| 158 | So what do they do? | 他们做什么的? |
| 159 | Now this kind of dilemma faces companies all the time. | 现在这种两难境地 总是面对公司。 |
| 160 | They have an idea that they think is really good, | 他们有一个想法 他们认为真的很好, |
| 161 | and they go out and try to validate their own intuition | 他们出去验证自己的直觉 |
| 162 | by asking consumers, | 通过询问消费者, |
| 163 | and consumers sometimes deliver a verdict | 消费者有时会做出判决 |
| 164 | that makes you very unhappy, | 这让你非常不高兴, |
| 165 | and the question is, what do you do with that verdict? | 问题是 你对判决做了什么? |
| 166 | Well, Herman Miller decided to hell with the consumer verdict. | 赫尔曼・米勒决定下地狱 对消费者的判决。 |
| 167 | They liked the chair, | 他们喜欢椅子, |
| 168 | and they were gonna bring it to market, | 他们打算把它带到市场, |
| 169 | so they did just that, they brought it out. | 所以他们这样做, 他们把它拿出来。 |
| 170 | And in the beginning, no one, predictably enough, | 一开始,没有人,可以预测, |
| 171 | liked this chair, didn't sell. | 喜欢这张椅子,不卖。 |
| 172 | But slowly it began to pick up some support | 但慢慢地它开始得到一些支持 |
| 173 | from here and there, | 从这里和那里, |
| 174 | and really kind of edgy avant-garde designers | 和真正一种 优雅的前卫设计师 |
| 175 | kind of took to it because it was so kind of weird, | 有点被接受,因为它是如此的奇怪, |
| 176 | and then it won some prize from France for new design, | 然后它获得了法国的新设计奖 |
| 177 | and then it started to show up in television commercials, | 然后它开始出现在电视广告中, |
| 178 | and then it began to pick up real traction | 然后它开始拾起真正的牵引力 |
| 179 | in Silicon Valley, and then suddenly it just took off, | 在硅谷, 然后突然它刚刚起飞, |
| 180 | and the sales were mounting by 20 and 30% a month | 销售额每月上升20%和30% |
| 181 | until it became not just the best-selling chair | 直到它成为最畅销的椅子 |
| 182 | in the history of Herman Miller, | 在赫尔曼·米勒的历史上 |
| 183 | but the best-selling office chair of all time. | 但最畅销的办公室主席 永远。 |
| 184 | I'm talking, of course, about the Aeron chair, | 我当然是在说艾隆的椅子 |
| 185 | and I'm sure that many of you even work in an Aeron chair | 我敢肯定,你们很多人 甚至在Aeron椅子上工作 |
| 186 | or work in something that has been directly inspired | 或者在被直接启发的东西中工作 |
| 187 | by the Aeron chair. | 坐在艾龙的椅子上 |
| 188 | The Aeron chair changed the face of chairs as we know it. | 据我们所知,艾龙椅改变了椅子的面貌。 |
| 189 | It's probably the most influential office chair | 可能是最有影响力的办公椅 |
| 190 | of the last 35 years. | 过去35年。 |
| 191 | But that story, I'm quite sure, for most of you, | 但那个故事,我敢肯定, 对你们大多数人来说, |
| 192 | presents a problem, right? | 是个问题,对吧? |
| 193 | Here was this product, which was absolutely revolutionary, | 这个产品是革命性的 |
| 194 | which made zillions of dollars for its company | 给公司赚了几十亿美元 |
| 195 | and made heroes out of its designers, | 我用它的设计者创造英雄, |
| 196 | and yet, by the normal rules of corporate operation, | 然而,根据正常的公司运营规则, |
| 197 | it should never have come to market, right? | 不该上市的 对吧? |
| 198 | The very mechanism that its company had set up | 公司建立的机制 |
| 199 | to judge whether it was worthy of coming to market | 判断它是否值得上市 |
| 200 | pronounced it absolutely unworthy. | 宣布它绝对不值得。 |
| 201 | It's a paradox, right? | 这是一个悖论,对不对? |
| 202 | It's a problem more than that. | 问题不止此. |
| 203 | It's like a, what do you do? | 这就像一个,你做什么的? |
| 204 | Of what usefulness, in other words, | 换句话说, |
| 205 | is a mechanism for measuring people's reactions to something | 是衡量人们对某物反应的机制 |
| 206 | if those reactions aren't ultimately predictive | 如果这些反应不是最终预测的 |
| 207 | of how they feel. | 他们的感受。 |
| 208 | And sure enough, just to test this, | 而且很确定,只是测试一下这个, |
| 209 | Herman Miller, two years after the Aeron chair came out, | 赫尔曼・米勒, 两年后,艾龙椅出来, |
| 210 | went back out and did another round of focus groups | 回去了 做了另一轮焦点小组 |
| 211 | with people and asked them what they thought of these chairs, | 问他们怎么看这些椅子, |
| 212 | and people said, well, we think it's an eight on comfort, | 人们说,嗯, 我们认为这是一个8 在舒适, |
| 213 | and by the way, we also think it's an eight on aesthetics. | 顺便说一句,我们也认为是8的美学。 |
| 214 | They once thought it was ugly, | 他们曾经觉得很丑陋 |
| 215 | and now they thought it was beautiful. | 现在他们觉得它很美 |
| 216 | So what usefulness, furthermore, | 那又有什么用处呢? |
| 217 | is a test of measuring people's reactions | 测试人们的反应 |
| 218 | if one year it measures and says it's a two, | 如果一年它测量 并说它是二, |
| 219 | and two years later they come back and says it's an eight. | 两年后,他们回来 说这是8。 |
| 220 | So is the chair beautiful or is it ugly? | 椅子很漂亮还是丑陋? |
| 221 | Now, I'm very interested in that story in this book | 我对这本书里的故事很感兴趣 |
| 222 | because my book is a book about snap judgments, | 因为我的书是一本关于快速判断的书 |
| 223 | about the kind of thinking we do like this. | 关于那种想法 我们这样做。 |
| 224 | And when you take a chair out to focus groups, | 当你把椅子 出来焦点组, |
| 225 | you're getting people to make a judgment. | 你让别人做出判断 |
| 226 | Like, they look at it, do you like it, right? | 就像,他们看着它, 你喜欢它,对不对? |
| 227 | Now, my question that I ask in this book | 现在,我在这本书里问的问题 |
| 228 | is how seriously do we take that judgment? | 我们是否认真对待这种判断? |
| 229 | What does it mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 230 | We understand if someone took the chair home | 我们知道如果有人把椅子带回家 |
| 231 | and lived with it for a year and sat in it every day | 和它一起生活了一年 每天坐在它里面 |
| 232 | and gave us a judgment. | 给了我们一个判断。 |
| 233 | We understand that kind of judgment, | 我们理解这种判断 |
| 234 | but we're not doing that. | 但我们不这样做。 |
| 235 | We're having a focus group. | 我们有一个焦点小组。 |
| 236 | We have the chair in the center of the room | 我们把椅子放在房间中央 |
| 237 | and we say, what do you think? | 我们说,你觉得呢? |
| 238 | And people say, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. | 而众生说,. |
| 239 | Well, what does that mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 240 | What do we know about the accuracy, the strength, | 我们知道什么是准确的, 力量, |
| 241 | the whatever of that particular judgment? | 具体判断是什么? |
| 242 | And so the book is an attempt to come up | 所以这本书是想上书 |
| 243 | with some kind of principles for understanding | 带有某种理解原则 |
| 244 | when that judgment is trustworthy and when it's not. | 当那个判断是可信的, 当它不是。 |
| 245 | So let's just walk through that story | 所以,让我们走过这个故事 |
| 246 | and see if we could extract some principles. | 看看我们能不能提一些原则 |
| 247 | Principle number one is that our preferences, | 原则一是 我们的偏好, |
| 248 | as expressed in a snap judgment, | 如速判决所示, |
| 249 | are extraordinarily unstable. | 异常不稳定。 |
| 250 | That's a very important point | 这很重要 |
| 251 | because it is the assumption of many people | 因为那是很多人的假设 |
| 252 | in many aspects of our lives, | 在我们生活的许多方面, |
| 253 | but let's just talk about market research here. | 但是,让我们只谈 市场研究在这里。 |
| 254 | The assumption of a lot of market researchers | 许多市场研究人员的假设 |
| 255 | is that when they measure a preference for something, | 难道他们以物配主的时候, |
| 256 | they're measuring some kind of inherent position | 他们正在测量某种固有的位置 |
| 257 | on that issue or product or thing, right? | 问题或产品或东西,对不对? |
| 258 | But in fact, that's wrong. | 但事实上,这是错误的。 |
| 259 | In fact, when you measure something by a snap judgment, | 事实上,当你通过快速判断来衡量某件事时, |
| 260 | what you're measuring is unbelievably volatile. | 你所测量的是不可思议的不稳定性。 |
| 261 | Let me give you an example. | 让我举个例子。 |
| 262 | Coke and Pepsi, remember the Pepsi challenge? | 可乐和百事,还记得百事挑战吗? |
| 263 | Two cups, one's got Coke, one's got Pepsi. | 二杯,一服可乐,一服百事. |
| 264 | You give it to Coke drinkers and you say, | 你把它给可乐酒商 你说 |
| 265 | take a sip of each, which one do you prefer? | 每人喝一口,你喜欢哪个? |
| 266 | And lo and behold, Coke drinkers always prefer Pepsi, right? | 可乐饮者总是喜欢百事可乐,对吧? |
| 267 | That's what caused Coke to do the whole new Coke thing | 所以可乐才开始做新的可乐 |
| 268 | 20 years ago because they were getting killed | 20年前,他们被杀了 |
| 269 | in this seeming extraordinarily objective measure | 在这个似乎非常客观的措施中 |
| 270 | of what people preferred. | 以众人所喜爱的事物发誓, |
| 271 | There's all this internal correspondence in Coke | 可乐里面有这么多内部通信 |
| 272 | at the time when they were like, | 当他们像, |
| 273 | oh my God, maybe we're not the best tasting Coke, right? | 哦,我的上帝,也许我们不是最好的 可乐,对不对? |
| 274 | Maybe American tastes have changed | 也许美国的味道已经变了 |
| 275 | and Cola's not what it once used to be. | 科拉和以前不一样了 |
| 276 | Maybe we've got to be more like Pepsi. | 也许我们应该更像百事公司 |
| 277 | After all, we're asking not just five or 10 people, | 毕竟我们不只问五十个人 |
| 278 | but tens of thousands of people | 但成千上万的人 |
| 279 | were given the Pepsi challenge. | 获得了百事可乐的挑战。 |
| 280 | And the result, | 结果 |
| 281 | that's an extraordinary robust statistical margin. | 这是一个非常强大的统计比值。 |
| 282 | It's something like 60 or 65% of Coke drinkers | 像是60%或65%的可乐饮料 |
| 283 | said in the sip test that they preferred Pepsi. | 在口水测试中说 他们更喜欢百事可乐 |
| 284 | Doesn't that seem to suggest | 这似乎没有暗示 |
| 285 | that Pepsi is better tasting than Coke, right? | 百事比可乐好吃,对吧? |
| 286 | Seems like a very stable way of measuring preferences. | 似乎是一种非常稳定的衡量偏好的方法。 |
| 287 | Doesn't suggest that at all. | 这完全没有暗示 |
| 288 | Because the whole test is, in fact, a kind of fraud. | 因为整个测试,事实上,是一种欺诈。 |
| 289 | It口试. | |
| 290 | When you're sipping any drink, | 当你喝任何饮料时, |
| 291 | you will always prefer the sweeter one, right? | 你总是喜欢甜的,对不对? |
| 292 | If, on the other hand, you drink the whole can, | 如果,另一方面,你喝整个罐头, |
| 293 | the sweetness will start to become cloying | 甜味会开始凝结 |
| 294 | and your preference will shift back | 你们的喜悦,将转回来, |
| 295 | {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}那东西可没那么甜 | |
| 296 | Pepsi is sweeter than Coke. | 百事比可乐甜. |
| 297 | Pepsi will always win a sip test. | 百事总能赢一口 |
| 298 | If you make people drink the whole can, | 如果你让所有人都喝罐子 |
| 299 | they'll prefer Coke, right? | 他们喜欢可乐,对吧? |
| 300 | Well, which of those two scenarios | 那么,这两个假设中的哪一个 |
| 301 | is more like the real world? | 更像现实世界吗? |
| 302 | Well, unless people are buying Cola, | 除非有人买可乐 |
| 303 | taking one sip and throwing it out, | 喝一口然后扔出来 |
| 304 | you're actually far more interested | 其实你更感兴趣 |
| 305 | in what they think after tasting the whole can. | 在他们想的 在品尝整个罐头之后。 |
| 306 | There is a case where the preference, | 有这样的情况: |
| 307 | the expression of what people think | 表达人们的想法 |
| 308 | in a snap judgment, is completely volatile. | 在快速判断中,是完全不稳定的。 |
| 309 | It is entirely dependent on how you choose to measure it | 这完全取决于你如何衡量 |
| 310 | and whether you choose to make them sip it | 你是否选择让他们喝下去 |
| 311 | or drink the whole can. | 或喝整个罐头。 |
| 312 | I'll give you another example of, | 我举个例子给你 |
| 313 | I sort of need props for this one. | 我需要这个道具 |
| 314 | Oh well, I don't have them. | 哦,好吧,我没有。 |
| 315 | Another example of how I can, | 又一个我可以举出的例子, |
| 316 | a demonstration of unstable preferences. | 一个不稳定偏好的表现。 |
| 317 | Suppose that I gave you, we did a Pepsi challenge, | 如果我给了你,我们做了一个百事可乐的挑战, |
| 318 | but I ask a slightly different question, | 但我问了一个有点不同的问题, |
| 319 | which is one glass is Coke, one glass is Pepsi. | 一杯是可乐,一杯是百事可乐 |
| 320 | I just want you to taste them both | 我只是想让你尝尝它们 |
| 321 | and tell me which is which, | 告诉我是什么 |
| 322 | which is Coke, which is Pepsi. | 是可乐 是百事可乐 |
| 323 | Not that hard. | 没那么难 |
| 324 | I suspect if you did this right now in this room, | 我怀疑你是否在这间屋子里这样做 |
| 325 | probably 75% of you will be able to distinguish | 你们75%的人可能可以分辨 |
| 326 | between the two of them. | 两人之间 |
| 327 | Coke is sweeter and Pepsi, or Coke is not as sweet. | 可乐更甜和百事可乐,或可乐不如甜. |
| 328 | Pepsi is sweeter, a little more lemony. | 百事更甜,柠檬多一点. |
| 329 | Coke is more of that kind of molasses-y kind of, right? | 可口可乐更像是那种糖浆,对吧? |
| 330 | That's easily done. | 很简单 |
| 331 | All right, now, so now you're all confident | 好了,现在,你们都有信心了 |
| 332 | that you can successfully make discriminations | 您可以成功做出歧视 |
| 333 | among the Colas, all right? | 在科拉斯人中间,好吗? |
| 334 | You can't. | 你不能这么做。 |
| 335 | If I change that test in a very subtle way, | 如果我以非常微妙的方式改变测试 |
| 336 | I will completely obliterate your ability | 我会完全抹去你的能力 |
| 337 | to make that very simple judgment. | 做一个非常简单的判断。 |
| 338 | And the test, the change is as follows. | 而考证,变化如下. |
| 339 | I give you three glasses. | 我给你三杯 |
| 340 | One is one of those Colas, the other two are the other. | 一个是科拉斯人,另一个是另一个 |
| 341 | And this time, I'm gonna make it easier for you. | 这次,我会让你更轻松 |
| 342 | I'm gonna say, I don't wanna know which is Coke | 我要说,我不想知道什么是可乐 |
| 343 | and which is Pepsi, I just wanna know | 百事可乐,我只是想知道 |
| 344 | which one is not like the other two, right? | 哪一个和另外两个不一样,对吧? |
| 345 | Sesame Street question. | 芝麻街问. |
| 346 | Sound easy? | 听起来容易吗? |
| 347 | Totally difficult. | 完全困难。 |
| 348 | If I did this in this room right now, | 如果我现在在这个房间里这样做, |
| 349 | the success rate on what's called the triangle test | 三角测试的成功率 |
| 350 | would be at one third, it would be chance. | 将会是三分之一,这将是机会。 |
| 351 | You can't do it. | 不可为. |
| 352 | What people do when you do, I've done this so many times | 别人做什么,当你做, 我做了这么多次 |
| 353 | now that I, what they do is this. | 现在,我,他们做的是这个。 |
| 354 | They taste the first one, they go, yeah. | 他们尝到第一个,他们走了,是的。 |
| 355 | Taste the second one, and they go. | 尝第二人,遂去. |
| 356 | Taste the third one, and they go. | 尝见第三人,遂去. |
| 357 | Then they go, second one. | 然后他们走了,第二个。 |
| 358 | And then you know you've got them, because. | 然后你知道你有他们,因为。 |
| 359 | Now, what have I done? | 现在,我做了什么? |
| 360 | I've shaken you, right? | 我吓到你了 对吧? |
| 361 | You used to be able to have a very clear way | 你以前有一条很清晰的路 |
| 362 | of establishing a preference. | 确定优惠。 |
| 363 | You were just comparing these two things. | 你在比较这两件事 |
| 364 | But by introducing a third element, | 但是,通过引入第三个要素, |
| 365 | I've so clouded the picture that you don't know what your, | 我这样蒙蔽了图片,你不知道什么是你的, |
| 366 | you can't make a decision anymore, right? | 你不能再做决定了吧? |
| 367 | You've lost it. | 你输了 |
| 368 | Your hold on this question of what is Coke | 你对什么是可口可乐的问题持之以恒 |
| 369 | and what is Pepsi, which you thought was so strong | 百事是甚么,你以为如此坚固 |
| 370 | and profound, is incredibly fragile. | 和深刻的,是极其脆弱的。 |
| 371 | I can shake it just by introducing a third element. | 我可以通过引入第三个要素来动摇它。 |
| 372 | And that's the first lesson of these things. | 这是这些事情的第一个教训。 |
| 373 | When you look at how somebody can go from | 当你看着一个人如何从 |
| 374 | thinking the air on chair is a two one year | 以为椅子上的空气是两年 |
| 375 | to an eight the next year, that shouldn't be surprising. | 明年的八点 这不奇怪 |
| 376 | Because when you measure the two, | 因为当你测量这两个, |
| 377 | you're not measuring anything robust, right? | 你没有测量任何强壮的,对不对? |
| 378 | It's a preference. | 谓之偏好. |
| 379 | Preferences can change like that. | 首选可以这样改变 |
| 380 | Okay, second lesson. | 好吧,第二课。 |
| 381 | Second lesson has to do with what's called storytelling. | 第二课与所谓讲故事有关. |
| 382 | The storytelling problem, as psychologists like to call it. | 讲故事的问题,作为心理学家喜欢称之为. |
| 383 | And that is that when you ask people | 当你问人 |
| 384 | to explain their snap judgments, | 解释他们的快速判断, |
| 385 | more often than not, they simply make up stories. | 他们常常只是编故事 |
| 386 | Now, there's a huge literature on this in psychology. | 现在,心理学中有一大堆关于这个的文献。 |
| 387 | And it is so utterly daunting for the cause | 这对事业来说是如此的艰巨 |
| 388 | of explanation gathering. | 解释收集。 |
| 389 | But basically it says that when we have a snap judgment, | 但基本上它说,当我们有一个快速判断, |
| 390 | that is a product of our unconscious. | 那是我们无意识的产物 |
| 391 | And our unconscious is a locked room, right? | 我们的昏迷是锁着的房间 对吧? |
| 392 | It's our unconscious. | 这是我们的无意识。 |
| 393 | It's outside of our awareness. | 它在我们的意识之外。 |
| 394 | We have no idea and we cannot have any idea | 我们不知道,我们不知道 |
| 395 | about what's going on inside that room. | 关于那个房间里发生的事 |
| 396 | And so when we're asked to come up with explanations, | 所以当我们被要求 提出解释, |
| 397 | we just make stuff up. | 我们只是编造一些东西。 |
| 398 | Very, very famous study that demonstrates this, | 非常,非常著名的研究 证明了这一点, |
| 399 | which is, like all these studies, | 就像所有这些研究一样, |
| 400 | we could have done them today. | 我们今天可以做他们今天。 |
| 401 | It would have been great fun if we had several hours. | 如果我们有几个小时,那会很有趣。 |
| 402 | But you hang two ropes from the ceiling. | 但你在天花板上挂了两条绳子 |
| 403 | And you have people come in and you say, | 有人进来说 |
| 404 | there are four possible ways | 有四种可能的办法 |
| 405 | of connecting these two ropes, right? | 连接这两条绳子,对吧? |
| 406 | The ropes are far enough apart that if you grab one rope | 绳子离得够远了 如果你抓住一根绳子 |
| 407 | and you pull it over like this, | 你这样拉过来 |
| 408 | you can't reach the second one. | 你无法到达第二个。 |
| 409 | So the question is, come up with four strategies | 所以问题是,想出四个策略 |
| 410 | of tying these two ropes together. | 把这两条绳子绑在一起 |
| 411 | There's all kinds of objects around the room | 房间里有各种各样的物体 |
| 412 | that you can use as props. | 用来做道具 |
| 413 | First thing people do is they see a chair, right? | 人们做的第一件事就是看到椅子,对吗? |
| 414 | Pull the chair out. | 把椅子拉出来 |
| 415 | They tie one rope to the one to the chair, | 他们把一条绳子绑在椅子上 |
| 416 | reach over, grab the other rope, right? | 抓住另一条绳子,对吧? |
| 417 | Put them together, that's one. | 把它们放在一起,这就是一个。 |
| 418 | Then they see there's an extension cord in the corner | 然后他们看到角落有一条延伸线 |
| 419 | and they go over, tie the extension cord to one end, | 然后他们过去,把延伸线绑到一端, |
| 420 | connect the ropes. | 把绳子连接起来 |
| 421 | Then they see there's like a hoe thing in the corner. | 然后他们看到角落里好像有蹄子 |
| 422 | They grab the hoe, they pull one rope towards them, | 他们抓住了蹄子,把一根绳子拉过来, |
| 423 | grab the other one, put them together. | 抓住另一个,把它们放在一起。 |
| 424 | And then they're stuck, right? | 然后他们卡住了,对不对? |
| 425 | Thinking, okay, I got three, but I know there's four. | 想想,好吧,我有三个,但我知道有四个。 |
| 426 | They're sitting there and they're thinking and thinking | 他们坐在那里,他们思考和思考 |
| 427 | and 10 minutes pass and they're starting to think, | 10分钟后 他们开始思考 |
| 428 | am I stupid? | 我傻吗? |
| 429 | I mean, they're starting to doubt themselves. | 我的意思是,他们开始怀疑自己。 |
| 430 | At that point, the experimenter walks across the room | 这时候,实验者走过房间 |
| 431 | to get a cup of coffee and as he does, | 喝杯咖啡,和他一样, |
| 432 | he brushes one of the ropes with his shoulder | 他用肩膀刷一根绳子 |
| 433 | and it starts to swing back and forth. | 然后它开始回旋 |
| 434 | At which point, everyone always goes like this. | 那时,每个人都这样 |
| 435 | Oh, of course, and they get up and they say, | 哦,当然,他们站起来说, |
| 436 | they take one of the ropes | 他们拿了一根绳子 |
| 437 | and they swing it back and forth like a pendulum | 他们像摇篮一样摇摆, |
| 438 | and grab the other one and when it swings over, | 抓住另一个 当它翻转, |
| 439 | they connect them. | 他们连接他们。 |
| 440 | And then the experimenter asks them, | 然后实验者问他们 |
| 441 | where did you get that idea for the pendulum? | 你从哪得到这个想法的? |
| 442 | And they'll always say, you know, | 他们会说,你知道, |
| 443 | I had this image of eighth grade physics | 我有一个八年级物理的图像 |
| 444 | when we were studying. | 当我们在学习。 |
| 445 | And they'll say, I saw this movie, | 他们会说,我看过这部电影, |
| 446 | adult Tarzan, Tarzan swinging on his vine. | 成人泰山,泰山挥舞着他的葡萄. |
| 447 | No one ever says, well, | 从来没有人说,嗯, |
| 448 | because you brushed it with your shoulder | 因为你用肩膀刷的 |
| 449 | and I realized that, now, why don't they say that? | 我意识到,现在, 他们为什么不说? |
| 450 | Are they lying? | 他们在撒谎吗? |
| 451 | Are they embarrassed? | 他们尴尬吗? |
| 452 | No, they're not lying, are they embarrassed? | 不,他们不是在撒谎,他们尴尬吗? |
| 453 | It's because that was a cue | 因为那是个提示 |
| 454 | that was picked up by their unconscious. | 被他们无意识地捡到了 |
| 455 | They don't know where it came from. | 他们不知道它来自哪里。 |
| 456 | All they know is the outcome, which is, | 他们只知道结果,那就是, |
| 457 | their unconscious telling them, pendulum, right? | 他们不知所措地告诉他们,对吗? |
| 458 | That's all they know. | 他们只知道这些 |
| 459 | Well, in that kind of situation, | 那么,在这种情况下, |
| 460 | what do we do when we're asked for an explanation? | 我们被问及解释时怎么办? |
| 461 | We make up a story. | 我们编个故事 |
| 462 | And that story has nothing to do | 那故事没什么好说的 |
| 463 | with the actual reality of the situation. | 与实际情况。 |
| 464 | I had a long discussion when I was writing my book | 我写书的时候 已经讨论很久了 |
| 465 | 和网球教练Vic Braden, | |
| 466 | who was telling me about, | 谁告诉我, |
| 467 | he's obsessed with this issue because he's a coach. | 他沉迷于这个问题 因为他是教练 |
| 468 | He's trying to explain ways of playing tennis better, right? | 他试图解释如何打网球更好,对不对? |
| 469 | So he spends lots of time talking to, | 所以他花了很多时间和他说话, |
| 470 | tennis pros, you know, Pete Sampras about their tennis. | 网球职业选手 Pete Sampras 关于他们的网球 |
| 471 | And what he says is, the explanations that pros give | 他所说的话是, 专业的解释 |
| 472 | for how they play tennis are never useful. | 因为他们打网球是没用的 |
| 473 | And he gave me the following example. | 他举了个例子 |
| 474 | You talk to Pete Sampras, | 你和皮特·桑普拉斯说话 |
| 475 | let's just use him as our whipping boy. | 我们把他当鞭子吧 |
| 476 | How does he hit a topspin forehand? | 他怎么撞到顶尖前臂的? |
| 477 | This is what he'll say. | 他会这么说的 |
| 478 | He'll say, at the moment of impact with the ball, | 他会说,在球撞击的时候, |
| 479 | you roll your wrist to produce the topspin, right? | 你摇动手腕 产生顶端,对不对? |
| 480 | Okay, Vic Braden videotaped Pete Sampras | 好吧,维克布拉登 录像皮特桑普拉斯 |
| 481 | hitting topspin forehands | 击打顶端前手 |
| 482 | and slowed the videotape down | 并减慢了录像 |
| 483 | to, so he's looking at slices of a hundredth of a second. | 所以他看着一百分之一秒的片子 |
| 484 | And he showed that Pete Sampras never, | 他证明皮特·桑普拉斯从未 |
| 485 | ever rolled his wrist. | 曾经滚动他的手腕。 |
| 486 | In fact, he cannot find a single professional tennis player | 事实上,他找不到一个职业网球运动员 |
| 487 | who rolls his or her wrist | 摇动手腕的人 |
| 488 | when they hit a topspin forehand. | 当他们撞上前门时 |
| 489 | You roll your wrist after the ball is gone. | 球没了后再转手 |
| 490 | If you roll your wrist when at the moment of impact, | 如果你在撞击时摇动手腕 |
| 491 | you sprain your wrist, right? | 你扭伤了你的手腕,对不对? |
| 492 | Now, here are people who know more about topspin forehands | 现在,这里的人 谁知道更多 关于顶端前手 |
| 493 | than anyone else alive. | 比任何人都活着。 |
| 494 | They hit the topspin forehand better | 他们撞到顶端前臂更好 |
| 495 | than anyone in human history. | 比人类历史上的任何人都强 |
| 496 | Yet they do not know why they do it or how, | 然而,他们不知道他们为什么这样做,也不知道如何这样做, |
| 497 | they do not know how they do it. | 他们不知道他们怎么做到的。 |
| 498 | And to ask them to provide an explanation | 请他们解释一下 |
| 499 | is to come up with an explanation | 是想出一个解释 |
| 500 | that is more than in this case useless. | 这比这更无用 |
| 501 | It is to come up with an explanation | 是想出一个解释 |
| 502 | that is actively harmful. | 这很有害 |
| 503 | That's what we do as human beings | 这就是我们作为人类所做的 |
| 504 | when we're asked to account for our snap reactions. | 当我们被要求解释 我们的突然反应。 |
| 505 | We make stuff up. | 我们编的 |
| 506 | And yet society, as far as I can tell, | 但社会,据我所知, |
| 507 | is rife with people who have this naive faith | 充满了这种天真信仰的人 |
| 508 | that somehow as individuals | 不知何故作为个人 |
| 509 | we're capable of actively representing. | 我们有能力积极代理 |
| 510 | The reasons for those decisions that are made in the moment. | 目前作出这些决定的原因。 |
| 511 | Last point, third lesson from all of this. | 最后一点,第三课 从这一切。 |
| 512 | And that is that it is not just the case | 这不仅仅是事实 |
| 513 | that when we ask someone to explain themselves | 当我们要求别人解释 |
| 514 | in the moment, they come up with nonsense. | 现在,他们想出胡说八道。 |
| 515 | It is also the case that the act of asking someone | 询问某人的行为也是这样 |
| 516 | to explain themselves actually changes | 来解释自己的实际变化 |
| 517 | under certain circumstances what people believe. | 在某些情况下,人们相信什么。 |
| 518 | There's a large body of literature on this, | 有很多关于这个的文献 |
| 519 | but the simplest explanation is something | 但最简单的解释是 |
| 520 | is this famous experiment called the poster test. | 这个著名的实验叫做海报测试 |
| 521 | And the poster test is, | 而海报测试是, |
| 522 | suppose I divide this room in half, right down here, right? | 假设我把这个房间分成一半,就在这里,对不对? |
| 523 | And I have across this wall all these posters, | 我穿过这面墙,这些海报, |
| 524 | tons of posters. | 数吨海报。 |
| 525 | And I say to this half of the room, | 我对这半个房间说, |
| 526 | you guys can have any poster you want. | 你们可以有任何海报你想要的。 |
| 527 | Take it, take it home, it's yours, right? | 拿着,带回家,是你的,对吗? |
| 528 | Very simple. | 非常简单。 |
| 529 | Pick the best, pick the one you like the most. | 选最好的 选最喜欢的 |
| 530 | To this half of the room I say, same thing. | 我对这半个房间说了同样的话 |
| 531 | Pick the poster you like the best, take it home. | 选你最喜欢的海报,带回家 |
| 532 | But before, by the way, you take it home, | 但在你带回家之前 |
| 533 | could you just write out a couple of paragraphs | 你能写几段吗? |
| 534 | of explanation of why you like that poster? | 你为何喜欢那张海报? |
| 535 | Then, six months from now, I call you all up. | 六个月后,我打电话给你们 |
| 536 | And I say, that poster, remember that poster? | 我说,那张海报,还记得那张海报吗? |
| 537 | How do you like your poster? | 你喜欢你的海报吗? |
| 538 | This half loves the poster. | 这一半喜欢海报 |
| 539 | Loves it, it's up in the corner of my bedroom. | 喜欢它,它在我的卧室角落。 |
| 540 | Love it, what a great poster. | 喜欢它,多么棒的海报。 |
| 541 | This half is like, I hate it. | 这一半就像, 我讨厌它。 |
| 542 | I threw it out. | 我把它扔了出来。 |
| 543 | And then I look at your poster choices | 然后我看着你的海报选择 |
| 544 | and I find that this half, | 我发现这一半, |
| 545 | the ones who are required to choose posters, | 那些必须选择海报的人, |
| 546 | chose different posters. | 选择不同的海报。 |
| 547 | They didn't choose the same one as you. | 他们没有选择和你一样的 |
| 548 | I'm guessing that this half, randomly speaking, | 我猜这半个,随机来说, |
| 549 | is roughly the same as this half. | 和这一半差不多 |
| 550 | Chose very different. | 选择非常不同。 |
| 551 | Then I look at the kind of posters you chose | 我看你选的海报 |
| 552 | and I realize that there is a pattern in the difference. | 我意识到 区别是有规律的 |
| 553 | That the posters on the back wall were of two varieties. | 后面墙上的海报有两个品种 |
| 554 | Some were impressionist paintings | 有些是印象派画 |
| 555 | and some were really cutesy ones of like kittens | 有些像小猫一样可爱 |
| 556 | on, you know, balance bars and stuff. | 在,你知道,平衡的栏杆和东西。 |
| 557 | You guys all chose the kittens. | 你们都选了小猫 |
| 558 | You chose the impressionist posters. | 你选择了印象主义海报。 |
| 559 | Now why is that? | 为什么? |
| 560 | Because the act of asking you to explain your preference | 因为要求你解释你的偏好 |
| 561 | biased you towards things that you could explain. | 偏执你的事情,你可以解释。 |
| 562 | I'm guessing that only a small number of people here | 我猜这里只有一小部分人 |
| 563 | feel confident in their ability to write | 相信他们的写作能力 |
| 564 | meaningfully and intelligently about impressionist art. | 对印象主义艺术有意义和智慧. |
| 565 | So as a result, what did you do? | 所以,结果,你做了什么? |
| 566 | You went with the kitten. | 你和小猫一起去了 |
| 567 | Because you said, on an unconscious level, | 因为你说,在无意识的层面, |
| 568 | well I can talk about why I like kittens. | 我可以说为什么我喜欢小猫 |
| 569 | I had a kitten when I was young, you know what I mean? | 我年轻的时候有只小猫,你知道我的意思吗? |
| 570 | So the act of making you explain your preference, | 所以让你解释你偏好的行为 |
| 571 | not just led you away from the thing | 不只是引导你远离事物 |
| 572 | that made you most happy, from your true preference, | 这让你最快乐, 从你真正的偏好, |
| 573 | but it biased you in favor of the thing | 但它偏向于你 喜欢的东西 |
| 574 | that was most conservative, right? | 这是最保守的,对不对? |
| 575 | It biased you in favor of the safe choice | 你偏爱安全选择 |
| 576 | and against the thing that was strange and unusual. | 并且反对奇怪和不寻常的东西。 |
| 577 | And that, to me, is the single most scariest | 这对我来说是最可怕的 |
| 578 | and most dangerous part of approaching snap judgments | 和最危险的 接近快速判断 |
| 579 | in this naive way. | 这种天真的方式。 |
| 580 | And that is by asking for explanations. | 这就是要求解释。 |
| 581 | We create a situation where people turn away | 我们造就了一种人转身 |
| 582 | from what is radical and a little bit strange | 从激进和有点奇怪的东西 |
| 583 | and towards the things that are safe. | 以安全的东西盟誓, |
| 584 | So think of this in the context of the Aeron chair. | 因此,在艾龙椅上考虑一下这一点。 |
| 585 | People are faced with this chair | 这把椅子是人们面对的 |
| 586 | and they're asked to explain what they think about it. | 他们被要求解释他们的想法。 |
| 587 | And they don't have the language to describe this thing. | 他们没有语言来描述这件事情。 |
| 588 | It's totally unlike any chair they've seen before. | 这完全不像他们见过的椅子 |
| 589 | So what are they left to do? | 那他们还能做什么呢? |
| 590 | They have to come up with some kind of explanation. | 他们必须想出某种解释 |
| 591 | And the only words they can find | 他们唯一能找到的词 |
| 592 | are words that have all kinds of negative connotations. | 是各种负面含义的词。 |
| 593 | I hate it, right? | 我恨它,对不对? |
| 594 | But what do they really mean? | 但他们到底是什么意思? |
| 595 | They didn't hate it at all. | 他们一点都不讨厌 |
| 596 | They loved that chair. | 他们喜欢那把椅子。 |
| 597 | Or they had within their heart | 或他们心中有 |
| 598 | the capacity to love that chair once they got used to it. | 一旦他们习惯了 就会爱上那把椅子 |
| 599 | What they really meant was not that I hate that chair, | 他们真正的意思不是我讨厌那把椅子 |
| 600 | but that chair is unusual. | 但那个椅子很不寻常 |
| 601 | I don't know what I think of that chair yet. | 我不知道我对那把椅子怎么想 |
| 602 | I've never seen a chair like that. | 我从来没有见过这样的椅子。 |
| 603 | That chair is different from all the chairs | 这把椅子和所有椅子不一样 |
| 604 | I've had in my life. | 我曾经有过 |
| 605 | Now that reaction is profoundly different | 现在的反应很不一样 |
| 606 | from the reaction that I hate that chair. | 因为我讨厌那把椅子 |
| 607 | In fact, it's on this end of the spectrum | 事实上,它是在光谱的这一端 |
| 608 | whereas hate is on that end of the spectrum. | 而仇恨则存在于这一端。 |
| 609 | And yet, by using this simple mechanism | 然而,通过使用这个简单的机制 |
| 610 | of requiring people to explain their preferences, | 要求人们解释他们的喜好, |
| 611 | we have come up with a system | 我们找到了一个系统 |
| 612 | that is incapable of distinguishing | 无法区分 |
| 613 | between objects that people truly hate | 在人们真正讨厌的物体之间 |
| 614 | and objects that people actually will end up loving | 以及人们真正爱的东西 |
| 615 | and have the capacity to transform a marketplace. | 并有能力改变市场。 |
| 616 | That is the danger of taking a snap judgment at face value. | 这就是对表面价值作出快速判断的危险。 |
| 617 | About understanding that when we leap | 关于理解 当我们跳跃 |
| 618 | to a conclusion like this, | 这样的结论, |
| 619 | there is a whole world of complexity below the surface. | 地表下有一个复杂的世界。 |
| 620 | And that this particular conclusion that we reach to | 而我们达成的具体结论 |
| 621 | is not robust. | 并不健全。 |
| 622 | It's fragile. | 这是脆弱的。 |
| 623 | And it can be corrupted or biased | 也可能是腐败或偏见 |
| 624 | in all kinds of complicated ways. | 在各种复杂的方式。 |
| 625 | Unless we understand those sources of corruption and bias, | 除非我们了解这些腐败和偏见的根源, |
| 626 | then we're helpless in the face of making sense | 面对理智,我们无能为力 |
| 627 | of this very critical part of human decision making. | 人类决策的关键部分 |
| 628 | So that's a little pricey | 所以这有点贵了 |
| 629 | of one of the many, many arguments in Blink. | Brink的众多论据之一 |
| 630 | And I'd be happy to answer any questions. | 我很乐意回答任何问题 |
| 631 | Standing up. | 站起来 |
| 632 | What do you suggest? | 你有什么建议? |
| 633 | What do I suggest instead? | 我有什么建议? |
| 634 | Yes. | 对 |
| 635 | Well, I don't hate all market research. | 我不讨厌所有的市场研究 |
| 636 | I hate market research that I feel that is naive | 我讨厌市场研究 我觉得那很天真 |
| 637 | and literal. | 和字迹。 |
| 638 | So in the case of, say, the Aeron chair, for example, | 因此,比如说,在艾隆的椅子上, |
| 639 | suppose instead of asking people what we thought of it, | 而不是问人们我们的想法, |
| 640 | we just gave them the chair | 我们刚刚给了他们椅子 |
| 641 | and we just observed them for a couple months. | 我们只观察了几个月 |
| 642 | That's fine, right? | 这很好,对不对? |
| 643 | Just have them, or suppose that we waited six months | 只要有他们,或者假设 我们等了六个月 |
| 644 | to get the reaction. | 要得到的反应。 |
| 645 | Why, what's the hurry? | 为什么这么着急? |
| 646 | Why try to, you know, this is a chair | 为什么要试着,你知道, 这是一个椅子 |
| 647 | that you spend millions of dollars per, you know, | 你花费数百万美元 每,你知道, |
| 648 | it's clearly unusual. | 这显然很不寻常。 |
| 649 | It's gonna take some getting used to. | 需要一些习惯。 |
| 650 | People have to sort of incorporate its aesthetic | 人们必须吸收它的美学 |
| 651 | into their worldview. | 进入他们的世界观。 |
| 652 | That's gonna take time. | 这需要时间。 |
| 653 | And actually Herman Miller understood all of this intuitively. | 实际上,赫尔曼·米勒直觉地理解了这一切。 |
| 654 | That's why they went ahead with the project, | 所以他们才开始这个项目 |
| 655 | even in the face of such overwhelming. | 即使面对如此压倒性。 |
| 656 | So I don't mind observational stuff, | 所以我不介意观察的东西, |
| 657 | stuff that has some kind of, you know, | 有些东西,你知道, |
| 658 | if people interpret what people say | 如果人们解释人们说的话 |
| 659 | as opposed to taking it at face value. | 而不是把它在面值。 |
| 660 | If there is some kind of intermediary step, | 如果有某种中间步骤 |
| 661 | then I think it's fine. | 那就没事了 |
| 662 | But too often, there's no interpretation. | 但太常无释. |
| 663 | It's that what we heard was X, Y, and Z | 我们听说的是 X Y和Z |
| 664 | without realizing that that can mean many different things. | 却没有意识到,这可能意味着很多不同的事情。 |
| 665 | You know, in being, really, you make a five | 你知道,在做,真的, 你做了一个5 |
| 666 | to 10 second judgment. | 至10次第二次判决。 |
| 667 | So I'm wondering if that falls within | 所以我想知道这是否属于 |
| 668 | the snap judgment range and would therefore be, | 快速的判断范围,因此, |
| 669 | you know, you interviewed the same person two days ago, | 你两天前采访过同一个人 |
| 670 | you make a different opinion. | 你的看法不同 |
| 671 | And also the fact that by forcing someone | 还有通过强迫某人 |
| 672 | to make a decision about the interview, | 就面试作出决定, |
| 673 | which Microsoft does, you know, famously, | 微软做的,你知道, 著名的, |
| 674 | you're actually biasing people away from the more radical | 你实际上在偏见人们 远离更激进 |
| 675 | but possibly better person. | 但也许更好的人。 |
| 676 | Well, this is, I have very, very strong feelings | 嗯,这是,我有 非常,非常强烈的感情 |
| 677 | about interviews, although I, for reasons that I | 关于采访,虽然我, 原因我 |
| 678 | am now kicking myself, I don't actually have, | 现在踢我自己, 我没有, |
| 679 | I have a little bit on interviews in the book, | 我在书里有些采访 |
| 680 | but not a lot. | 但没什么 |
| 681 | I should have perhaps put in more. | 我也许应该多放点 |
| 682 | You're quite right. | 你说得对 |
| 683 | You know, if you talk to psychologists, | 如果你跟心理学家说话 |
| 684 | they will tell you that there is no more flawed | 他们会告诉你,没有更多的缺陷 |
| 685 | methodology in American life than the job interview. | 美国生活中的方法 而不是面试 |
| 686 | It's an absurd process, which nearly everybody botches. | 这是一个荒谬的过程, 几乎每个人都会跳。 |
| 687 | And nearly everyone believes, by the way, | 而且几乎每个人都相信,顺便说一句, |
| 688 | they're not botching as they are botching. | 他们不是装瓶,因为他们是装瓶。 |
| 689 | There are a very limited number of things | 东西数量有限 |
| 690 | you can learn about somebody in a face-to-face encounter. | 你可以在面对面的交往中了解某人 |
| 691 | They are real, right? | 他们是真实的,对不对? |
| 692 | But they're limited. | 但他们是有限的。 |
| 693 | So you can learn that somebody is, | 这样你就可以知道有人是, |
| 694 | you can learn how energetic they are. | 你可以知道他们有多活跃。 |
| 695 | You can learn how extroverted they are. | 你可以知道他们有多外向 |
| 696 | You can learn, you can have some measure | 你可以学,可以量一些 |
| 697 | of their self-confidence in that encounter. | 他们自信的遭遇。 |
| 698 | So if you're hiring someone to do lots of job interviews, | 所以如果你雇人做很多工作面试 |
| 699 | you can learn something about how they approach it. | 你可以了解一下他们是如何处理的 |
| 700 | So it'd be very, very useful. | 因此,这将是非常,非常有用。 |
| 701 | You can also learn whether you're attracted to that person | 你也可以知道你是否被那个人吸引 |
| 702 | and whether that person's attracted to you. | 以及那个人是否被你吸引 |
| 703 | Another potentially interesting, you know, important thing | 还有一件可能很有趣的事,你知道的,很重要的 |
| 704 | if your main motivation in hiring is to, you know, | 如果你在招聘中的主要动机是,你知道, |
| 705 | come up with employees who you can later hit on. | 找些你以后可以找的员工来 |
| 706 | But there are all kinds of other things | 但还有各种各样的事情 |
| 707 | that you think you can find out, which you can't, right? | 你觉得你可以发现,你无法发现,对不对? |
| 708 | You cannot learn from an hour conversation with someone | 你不能从一个小时的谈话中吸取教训 |
| 709 | how open-minded that person is, can't. | 这个人多么开明,不能。 |
| 710 | Can't learn how conscientious they are, | 不知道他们有多自负 |
| 711 | how hardworking they are. | 他们有多努力 |
| 712 | Can't know anything about their ability to function | 根本不知道他们的能力 |
| 713 | in very different contexts, right? | 在非常不同的环境,对不对? |
| 714 | I was talking to an academic group recently | 我最近跟一个学术团体谈过 |
| 715 | and I was, you know, in the academic world, | 而我,你知道, 在学术界, |
| 716 | typically before they hire you, you give a job talk. | 通常在他们雇你之前 你就会说些工作 |
| 717 | Insanity. | 无常. |
| 718 | What is a job talk? | 什么是工作谈话? |
| 719 | It's a case where I take somebody | 这件案子我带了个人 |
| 720 | and I force them very early in their career | 早年我强迫他们 |
| 721 | to stand up before a group of incredibly | 站在一群令人难以置信的 |
| 722 | discriminating critics, all of whom are senior to them, | 歧视批评者, 他们都是他们的高级, |
| 723 | and with their entire career in the balance, | 和他们的整个职业生涯 在平衡, |
| 724 | give a successful lecture. | 作一个成功的演讲。 |
| 725 | Now, none of the traits that you are testing in that moment | 现在,你没有测试的特征 在那一刻 |
| 726 | are at all relevant to the life of an academic. | 完全与学者的生活有关。 |
| 727 | In fact, an academic is someone who chose academia | 事实上,一个学者是选择学术的人 |
| 728 | in large part because they aren't very good at performing | 大部分是因为他们不擅长表演 |
| 729 | in high-pressure situations and don't want to | 在高压情况下,不想 |
| 730 | and have no interest in so doing, right? | 并且对此没有兴趣,对不对? |
| 731 | It's crazy. | 太疯狂了 |
| 732 | It's like if you were the general manager | 就像你是总经理一样 |
| 733 | of like the Seattle Seahawks and you made everyone | 就像西雅图海鹰队,你让所有人 |
| 734 | who was trying out for the offensive line do crocheting. | 试图攻下进攻线的人 总是在编织 |
| 735 | You think, because, well, so-and-so can't crochet. | 你觉得,因为,嗯, 所以,所以不能缠绕。 |
| 736 | I don't know if we can. | 我不知道我们能不能 |
| 737 | Why would you be interested in that, right? | 你为什么对这个感兴趣? |
| 738 | Why test for things you don't care about? | 为什么测试你不在乎的东西? |
| 739 | Yet we do this kind of constantly. | 然而,我们经常这样做。 |
| 740 | The job interview for, if you're hiring someone | 工作面试,如果你雇用某人 |
| 741 | to work the perfume counter at Saks, | 去萨克斯的香水柜台工作 |
| 742 | then by all means do a job interview, | 然后通过一切手段 做一个工作面试, |
| 743 | but a classic face-to-face job interview. | 但典型的面对面面试。 |
| 744 | But if you're not, then I think you sort of have | 但是如果你不是,那么我想你有点 |
| 745 | to come up with better strategies. | 提出更好的策略。 |
| 746 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 747 | In the book, you make a distinction | 在书中,你做一个区分 |
| 748 | between experts and non-experts and specifically | 专家和非专家之间,特别是 |
| 749 | that we can rely on experts to be able to articulate | 我们可以依靠专家来阐明 |
| 750 | in hopefully some sort of an accurate way | 希望有某种准确的方式 |
| 751 | the reasons why something is good versus something is bad. | 东西是好的还是坏的 |
| 752 | And we've seen through the talk you've given today | 我们从你今天的演讲中看到了 |
| 753 | that there are experts you can trust and experts you can't. | 有专家你可以信任,有专家你不能信任。 |
| 754 | The sports star, for example, | 比如说运动明星 |
| 755 | versus the executives at Herman Miller. | 与赫尔曼·米勒的高层对决. |
| 756 | Is there some sort of a way that we can tell externally | 是否有某种方法,我们可以从外部看出来 |
| 757 | whether somebody else is an expert | 别人是不是专家 |
| 758 | without being an expert ourselves? | 没有成为专家自己? |
| 759 | That's a good question. | 问曰. |
| 760 | Experts, just to take a step backwards for a moment. | 专家,只是向后退一步 |
| 761 | Most experts, yes, you're quite right, | 大多数专家,是的,你说得对, |
| 762 | that one of the, I talk a lot about this in the book, | 其中一个,我在书中说了很多关于这个, |
| 763 | one of the fruits of experience and expertise | 经验和专门知识的成果之一 |
| 764 | is that you do get better at knowing how to explain | 是,你确实得到更好的 知道如何解释 |
| 765 | where your snap judgments come from, | 在那里,你的快速判断, |
| 766 | or at least you're less susceptible | 或者至少你不那么容易受伤害 |
| 767 | to the kind of biases and corruption | 偏见和腐败 |
| 768 | that I've been talking about. | 我一直在谈论。 |
| 769 | Now, I gave the example of tennis stars | 现在,我举了网球明星的例子 |
| 770 | not being able to do this, | 无法做到这一点, |
| 771 | but that's actually a specific case | 但其实那是个具体的案子 |
| 772 | because a tennis star who's 25 years old and playing | 因为一个25岁的网球明星 |
| 773 | is actually actively uninterested | 其实是积极无趣的 |
| 774 | in that version of their expertise, right? | 他们的专长,对不对? |
| 775 | They don't think about, they're experts in playing tennis, | 他们不考虑, 他们是打网球的专家, |
| 776 | not in teaching tennis, so that it makes sense | 不是在教网球,这样才有意义 |
| 777 | that they wouldn't have mastered yet | 他们还没有掌握 |
| 778 | the ability to understand precisely what they're doing | 能够准确理解他们在做什么 |
| 779 | if they're doing it in a kind of unconscious mode. | 如果他们在某种无意识的状态下 |
| 780 | But I am very, I do think there are striking differences | 但我非常,我确实认为 有惊人的区别 |
| 781 | between the kind of, between those who have specific | 那种人之间, |
| 782 | knowledge in a field and have a snap judgment | 知识在一个领域 并有一个快速判断 |
| 783 | and those who don't. | 及不见者. |
| 784 | And there's no perfect way to measure that, of course, | 而且没有完美的方法来衡量, 当然, |
| 785 | but we've moved, this whole project is to move | 但我们已经搬家了 整个工程都要搬走 |
| 786 | decision making from the false security | 利用虚假担保进行决策 |
| 787 | of the kind of deliberate, conscious world | 那种深思熟虑的世界 |
| 788 | into something that is by definition a lot fuzzier. | 变成一个从定义上说是很多fuzier。 |
| 789 | And I think we just have to learn to live | 我觉得我们只需要学会活下去 |
| 790 | with the fuzziness, and that means we don't always know | 和模糊, 这意味着我们并不总是知道 |
| 791 | right away whether somebody is expert. | 马上就有人是专家了 |
| 792 | Herman Miller trusted Bill Stump | 赫尔曼·米勒信任比尔·斯通普 |
| 793 | because Bill Stump had a history with them. | 因为比尔·斯坦普和他们有过一段历史 |
| 794 | That's why they were willing to say, | 这就是为什么他们愿意说, |
| 795 | you know, he did the ergon on the equa, | 你知道,他做了ergon 在等离子, |
| 796 | they made us a lot of money, | 他们给我们赚了很多钱 |
| 797 | he's probably right this time too. | 这次他可能是对的 |
| 798 | So there is a kind of, we're getting into judgment | 所以有种,我们正在得到判断 |
| 799 | as opposed to this area of human judgment, | 而不是人类的判断, |
| 800 | which is a necessity, something that cannot be | 这是必要的, 的东西不可能是 |
| 801 | beautifully calibrated and described. | 精美的校准和描述。 |
| 802 | True. | 没错 |
| 803 | And in that same vein, are experts dangerous | 同样的,专家是危险的 |
| 804 | because they do maybe know more, | 因为他们知道更多, |
| 805 | and that changes the way they think about the issue | 改变他们思考这个问题的方式 |
| 806 | versus the average man and woman. | 对一般的男女。 |
| 807 | Well, this gets into, I don't know, | 嗯,这是进入,我不知道, |
| 808 | Jim Suricki来过这里吗? | |
| 809 | with The Wisdom of Crowds? | 与乌鸦的智慧? |
| 810 | He's my colleague at The New Yorker who's written this book, | 他是《纽约客》里我的同事 他写了这本书 |
| 811 | which is sharply critical of a lot of expert judgment | 这对很多专家的判断是尖锐的 |
| 812 | and saying that aggregated decision making | 并说,综合决策 |
| 813 | by groups of non-experts can be superior | 由非专家组成的团体可以发挥优势。 |
| 814 | to experts in many forms. | 以多种形式提交专家。 |
| 815 | And I'm actually profoundly sympathetic | 我其实很同情你 |
| 816 | to a lot of his arguments. | 他的很多争论。 |
| 817 | And so my, I should be careful to kind of specify, | 所以,我,我应该小心 某种具体, |
| 818 | what both Jim and I are trying to do | 吉姆和我都在试图做什么 |
| 819 | is to say that the kind of standard model, | 就是说那种标准模型, |
| 820 | the notion that an expert working rationally | 专家合理工作的概念 |
| 821 | and deliberately and logically, consciously | 并且有意识和有意识地 |
| 822 | through a series of choices | 通过一系列选择 |
| 823 | is always the best way to resolve a problem. | 总是解决问题的最佳途径。 |
| 824 | We're both, we both have problems with that. | 我们俩都有问题 |
| 825 | We think that that works for some things, | 我们认为这对一些事情是有用的, |
| 826 | but it's, you know, it's crazy to assume | 但是,你知道,这是疯狂的假设 |
| 827 | that that model actually is the best | 那个模型其实是最好的 |
| 828 | for all manner of decisions. | 以各种方式决定。 |
| 829 | And he critiques it from this side | 他从这边批评它 |
| 830 | to say actually groups are better than individuals | 说团体比个人更好 |
| 831 | in many situations. | 在很多情况下。 |
| 832 | And I critique from the other side to say | 我批评对方说 |
| 833 | there are moments when the kind of, | 有些时候... |
| 834 | this kind of unconscious decision making | 这种无意识的决策 |
| 835 | has real advantages. | 有真正的优势。 |
| 836 | If that's an advanced issue. | 如果这是高级问题的话 |
| 837 | So some people seem to be better | 所以有些人似乎比较好 |
| 838 | at making answers now judging this than others. | 现在比别人更能判断答案 |
| 839 | I'm wondering in your studies, | 我在想,在你的学习, |
| 840 | do you notice any patterns or learn something about | 你是否注意到任何规律或学到什么 |
| 841 | at an outside direct versus the one? | 在外线直接对着那个? |
| 842 | Well, the common pattern, | 嗯,共同的模式, |
| 843 | rather than focusing on differences in individuals, | 而不是专注于个人的差异, |
| 844 | I like to focus on differences in environments. | 我想强调环境的差异。 |
| 845 | So to give you an example, I have a chapter in the book | 举个例子,我书中有一章 |
| 846 | that talks about the classical music world. | 讲的是古典音乐世界 |
| 847 | And for years and years and years, | 多年来, 和多年, |
| 848 | classical orchestras were entirely male. | 古典乐团完全为男性. |
| 849 | And if you asked people in the business, | 如果你问别人在生意, |
| 850 | Maestros 为什么你只雇男人? | |
| 851 | They would say, well, men are better musicians than women. | 他们会说 男人比女人更擅长音乐 |
| 852 | They are fundamentally inherently better. | 从根本上说,它们本身就更好。 |
| 853 | And you say, well, why do you think that? | 你说,为什么你会这么想? |
| 854 | And they'd say, well, we have auditions, open auditions, | 他们会说,我们有试镜,公开试镜, |
| 855 | and women come and they play alongside men | 女人会来和男人一起玩 |
| 856 | and the men always play better. | 男人总是玩得更好 |
| 857 | So, you know, what could be a more transparent | 所以,你知道,什么可以是一个更透明 |
| 858 | and objective way of measuring musical ability? | 以及衡量音乐能力的客观方法? |
| 859 | And if men are always winning, you know, | 如果男人总是赢,你知道, |
| 860 | women only ever win the competition for the harp. | 女人只能赢得竖琴比赛 |
| 861 | And so, you know, clearly there's a problem with women here. | 所以,你知道,很明显 这里有女人的问题。 |
| 862 | Well, then for a variety of reasons in the 80s, | 那么,出于各种原因 在80年代, |
| 863 | they started to put up screens in auditions. | 他们开始在试镜中放屏幕。 |
| 864 | So you could only hear, you couldn't see. | 所以你只能听,你看不见。 |
| 865 | And immediately, they start to hire women. | 立即,他们开始雇用妇女。 |
| 866 | And now, in the last 25 years, | 现在,在过去的25年里, |
| 867 | orchestras have gone from being about 5% female | 管弦乐团已经从大约5%的女性 |
| 868 | to being roughly 50-50, | 大约是50 -50, |
| 869 | which says that since the imposition of the screen, | 上面写着 自从屏幕被安装以来 |
| 870 | women had disproportionately won more auditions than men, | 女选手比男选手赢得的多 |
| 871 | which would suggest actually | 这实际上意味着 |
| 872 | that if anyone is inherently better musician, it's a woman. | 如果有谁天生是更好的音乐家 那就是女人 |
| 873 | But put that aside. | 但把那个放在一边。 |
| 874 | What that says is that in ways that they did not realize, | 上面写着 他们没有意识到 |
| 875 | the evidence of their eyes | 他们的眼睛的证据 |
| 876 | and their unconscious feelings about women | 以及她们对女人的无意识感情 |
| 877 | were prejudicing the snap judgment, | 伤害了迅速的判决, |
| 878 | because an audition is a snap judgment, | 因为试镜是一时的判断 |
| 879 | the snap judgment that kind of maestros were making | 那种迷宫的判断 |
| 880 | about people playing music. | 关于人们演奏音乐。 |
| 881 | That they were, their judgment was corrupted | 他们的判断被破坏了 |
| 882 | by this enormously apparently powerful thing | 由这个非常强大的东西 |
| 883 | called, you know, sexism. | 被称为,你知道,性别歧视。 |
| 884 | And when we put the screen up, | 当我们把屏幕, |
| 885 | what we did is we took the maestro | 我们所做的就是拿下大师 |
| 886 | who was a very bad snap decision maker, | 他是一个非常糟糕的快速决策者, |
| 887 | and we made him a good one again, right? | 我们又让他成为好人了,对吧? |
| 888 | Now, that says to me that people make good snap decisions | 现在,这告诉我 人们做好的快速决定 |
| 889 | in environments where some attempt has been made | 在已作出某种努力的环境中 |
| 890 | to clean up sources of contamination. | 清理污染源。 |
| 891 | And what's interesting about that story, of course, | 那故事有什么有趣的,当然, |
| 892 | as well is that it's a case | 这也是个案子 |
| 893 | where we made someone a better decision maker | 我们让一个人成为更好的决策者 |
| 894 | by taking away information. | 获取信息。 |
| 895 | That's another key, very interesting thing, | 这是另一个关键, 非常有趣的事情, |
| 896 | that snap decisions are better | 快速决定更好 |
| 897 | when we've gotten rid of sources of contamination, | 当我们摆脱了污染源, |
| 898 | and also where we have simplified | 以及我们简化的地方 |
| 899 | the kind of decision making palette. | 那种决策调色板。 |
| 900 | And I talk a lot about that in the book as well. | 我在书里也谈到过很多这个问题。 |
| 901 | So that is where I would like to see, | 所以这就是我想看到的, |
| 902 | rather than try and identify individuals | 而不是尝试和识别个人 |
| 903 | who have this special ability, | 他们有这种特殊的能力, |
| 904 | I much prefer to think of it in terms of environments | 我更喜欢从环境的角度来考虑 |
| 905 | where people who have the ability | 拥有能力的人 |
| 906 | to make successful snap judgments | * 做出成功的快速判决; |
| 907 | are allowed to exercise that ability freely and openly. | 允许自由和公开地行使这种能力。 |
| 908 | And that's to me the key. | 这对我来说是关键 |
| 909 | Can you talk about it? | 你能谈谈吗? |
| 910 | Oh, sorry. | 对不起 |
| 911 | Sure, I'll get to it. | 当然,我会得到它。 |
| 912 | So at Microsoft, we do a lot of usability testing. | 所以在微软公司,我们做了很多可用性测试。 |
| 913 | We get people in and they try a feature in our lab, | 我们让人们进来,他们尝试一个特征 在我们的实验室, |
| 914 | and sometimes it's buggy or it's a demo, | 有时候是杂乱无章,或者是演示 |
| 915 | and so it's not the real circumstance. | 所以这不是真的 |
| 916 | Are we wasting our time? | 我们在浪费时间吗? |
| 917 | I would never suggest anything to Microsoft, right? | 我绝不会向微软提建议,对吧? |
| 918 | No, I mean, it depends what you, | 不,我的意思是, 这取决于你, |
| 919 | it's like, think about, I'm from New York, | 想想,我来自纽约 |
| 920 | so this is a topic, Manhattan, | 所以这是一个话题,曼哈顿, |
| 921 | it's a topic, of course, that's near and dear to my heart, | 这当然是一个话题, 这对我来说是亲切的, |
| 922 | maybe of no cultural relevance to any of you at all. | 也许跟你们没有任何文化关系 |
| 923 | You're at your shrinks. | 你在你的心理医生。 |
| 924 | You're lying on a couch, right? | 你躺在沙发上,对吧? |
| 925 | And you say, I hate my mother. | 你说,我恨我的母亲。 |
| 926 | Now, what does a shrink do in response to that statement? | 现在,心理医生对这个说法的反应是什么? |
| 927 | They have one response is to say, Malcolm hates his mother. | 他们有一个回答是说,马尔科姆讨厌他的母亲. |
| 928 | Another response is to say, | 另一种回答是说, |
| 929 | Malcolm at the moment is saying he hates his mother, | 马尔科姆现在在说他恨他的母亲 |
| 930 | but he actually means something else, | 但他其实有别的意思 |
| 931 | and we're gonna spend the next 10 years | 接下来的十年里,我们会度过 |
| 932 | getting to the bottom of this. | 说到底 |
| 933 | Now, so a usability study, it depends, right? | 现在,所以一个可用性研究, 它取决于,对不对? |
| 934 | It depends how you're interpreting that, right? | 这取决于你是如何解释的,对不对? |
| 935 | If you're looking at what people are doing and saying, | 如果你在看人们在做什么 并说, |
| 936 | and you're interpreting it like a shrink does, | 你就像心理医生一样解释 |
| 937 | it's very useful. | 这是非常有用的。 |
| 938 | If you're not, it's not useful at all. | 如果你不是,这根本不有用 |
| 939 | Now, that may seem a really obvious point, | 现在,这似乎是一个非常明显的观点, |
| 940 | but you would be amazed at how few people do the, | 但你会惊讶 很少有人这样做, |
| 941 | take the kind of shrink approach. | 采取那种收缩方法。 |
| 942 | When I was doing this book, | 我写这本书的时候 |
| 943 | I was talking to all these guys in Hollywood | 我跟好莱坞的那些人谈过了 |
| 944 | who do, you know, user studies of movies, | 谁做,你知道,用户 电影研究, |
| 945 | like do pre-market screening of movies. | 就像在市场前放映电影一样 |
| 946 | And so I had an actual conversation with a guy who said, | 所以我和一个说 |
| 947 | he said, you know, one of the weird things | 他说,你知道,一个奇怪的事情 |
| 948 | about testing comedies is that you'll watch the audience | 关于测试喜剧是 你会看观众 |
| 949 | while they're watching a comedy, | 当他们在看喜剧时 |
| 950 | and they'll be laughing their guts out. | 他们会笑出他们的胆量。 |
| 951 | And then you ask them afterwards, did you like that movie? | 然后你问他们之后, 你喜欢那部电影吗? |
| 952 | You think it was funny? | 你觉得这很有趣吗? |
| 953 | And they'll say, now it wasn't funny at all. | 他们会说,现在这一点都不好笑 |
| 954 | And I said to that, oh, so which of those two versions | 我说,哦,所以这两个版本中的哪一个 |
| 955 | do you believe? | 你相信吗? |
| 956 | And the guy said, well, what they say, of course. | 那家伙说,嗯,他们说什么,当然。 |
| 957 | Now, what if I'm wrong? | 如果我错了呢? |
| 958 | Is that not backwards? | 这不是倒着吗? |
| 959 | Like, I just sort of looked at the guy and I just said, | 喜欢,我只是有点 看的家伙,我只是说, |
| 960 | you know, I don't know what to make of that. | 我不知道该怎么解释 |
| 961 | Like, that's just really deeply puzzling. | 喜欢,这只是 深深的困惑。 |
| 962 | This is Hollywood, they're not dumb, | 这是好莱坞,他们不是哑巴, |
| 963 | but they're just not interested in, | 但他们只是不感兴趣, |
| 964 | to him it was a kind of, the actual laughter | 对他来说,那是一种真实的笑声, |
| 965 | that you would experience in the moment was a kind of, | 你将经历的时刻 是一种, |
| 966 | was noise in the system, right? | 系统里有噪音,对吧? |
| 967 | It's crazy. | 太疯狂了 |
| 968 | That might go back to the focus. | 这可能回到焦点。 |
| 969 | The question I was gonna ask about focus groups, | 我想问的焦点小组的问题, |
| 970 | which is, that guy sells tickets | 也就是说,那家伙卖票 |
| 971 | not based on the laughing people in the theater, | 不是因为戏院里的笑人 |
| 972 | but the buzz they get afterwards | 但后来他们又会发声 |
| 973 | as to whether that person tells other people | 关于他是否告诉别人 |
| 974 | that it's a funny movie or not. | 这是一部有趣的电影与否。 |
| 975 | And my actual question is, | 我真正的问题是, |
| 976 | we do focus groups with multiple people, | 我们做焦点小组 多人, |
| 977 | and is there value to that because they pollute each other? | 因为他们互相污染,所以有价值吗? |
| 978 | You talk about polluting issues out of a room. | 你在房间里谈论污染问题 |
| 979 | One strong personality, one compelling personality | 一个强壮的个性 一个强壮的个性 |
| 980 | can basically turn the whole room. | 基本上可以把整个房间翻过来 |
| 981 | You think maybe one-on-one or kind of more focused, | 你认为也许一对一 或者那种更集中, |
| 982 | focus groups with individuals is more valuable | 以个人为重点群体更为宝贵 |
| 983 | than throwing a group of people, | 或抛下一群人, |
| 984 | but then again, that goes against the wisdom of crowds. | 这又违背了人群的智慧 |
| 985 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 986 | No, I think any kind of, | 不,我想任何类型的, |
| 987 | I think any step away from the kind of standard | 我认为任何一步 离那种标准 |
| 988 | focus group methodology is probably a good one. | 焦点小组的方法也许是好的。 |
| 989 | So, I'm short of throwing them out altogether, | 所以,我还没有把他们扔出去, |
| 990 | which would be my dream. | 这将是我的梦想。 |
| 991 | Sure, like mixing it up and doing all kinds of, | 当然,像混在一起 做各种各样的, |
| 992 | viewing people and people's experiences | 观看人和人的经验 |
| 993 | in the greatest possible range of situations | 在尽可能广泛的情况下 |
| 994 | is probably all good. | 也许一切都很好 |
| 995 | On your movie point, it's very interesting you say that. | 在你的电影点上,你这么说很有趣 |
| 996 | That is where you go, that's what they would say. | 你去那里,他们会这么说的。 |
| 997 | They would say, I actually care more what they say | 他们说,其实我更关心他们说的话 |
| 998 | about the movie than what they did | 有关电影比他们做了什么 |
| 999 | because I want this movie talked up. | 因为我希望这部电影能说清楚 |
| 1000 | But then that assumes that what, | 但是,然后假设,什么, |
| 1001 | the way they describe the movie to a friend | 他们描述电影的方式 一个朋友 |
| 1002 | is similar as the way they describe it to you, | 就像他们对你的描述一样 |
| 1003 | and that's wrong. | 这是错误的。 |
| 1004 | The problem is that the form of asking someone | 问题是 问人的形式 |
| 1005 | formally after the movie is a powerfully distorting form. | 电影之后正式成为了一种强大的扭曲形式. |
| 1006 | It's not the same as over beers with Jim, telling Jim. | 和吉姆的啤酒不一样 告诉吉姆 |
| 1007 | I have a question on this point. | 我有一个问题。 |
| 1008 | This is something that's been irking me | 这件事让我很烦恼 |
| 1009 | and fascinating me for a long time, | 并吸引我很久, |
| 1010 | and I've been looking for studies retrospectively | 我一直在寻找研究 追溯 |
| 1011 | that look at how well the focus group predict | 看看焦点小组的预测 |
| 1012 | what actually happens. | 到底发生了什么 |
| 1013 | So do you and how well do the market studies | 你和市场研究做得如何 |
| 1014 | actually predict outcomes? | 实际预测结果? |
| 1015 | And I cannot find anything. | 我找不到任何东西。 |
| 1016 | So maybe it came across something in your research | 所以也许在你的研究中发现了一些东西 |
| 1017 | that you can, or something. | 你可以的,或东西。 |
| 1018 | No, there's precious little data | 不,有宝贵的小数据 |
| 1019 | because if you were in the focus group business, | 因为如果你在焦点组业务, |
| 1020 | would you produce such data? | 你会提供这些数据吗? |
| 1021 | Why would you? | 为什么? |
| 1022 | But I will say this, that the bias, the problem is, | 但我会说, 偏见,问题在于, |
| 1023 | the further you move away from things that are | 你离这些东西越远 |
| 1024 | in the mainstream, the more trouble you have. | 在主流,你的麻烦越多。 |
| 1025 | So imagine that you have just produced a movie, | 想象一下你刚刚制作了一部电影, |
| 1026 | Die Hard Five, right? | 死难五,对不对? |
| 1027 | And you want to know, is Die Hard Five | 你想知道,是死难五 |
| 1028 | as good as Die Hard Four? | 和死硬四号一样好? |
| 1029 | Can you predict that, find that out from a focus group? | 你能预测一下,从焦点小组中找出来吗? |
| 1030 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 1031 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 1032 | Because your focus group will be full of people | 因为你的焦点小组 将充满人 |
| 1033 | who saw Die Hard's one through four. | 他看到"硬死"一到四。 |
| 1034 | They're completely familiar with the genre. | 他们完全熟悉流派. |
| 1035 | They have no difficulty explaining their feelings | 他们没有困难地解释他们的感受 |
| 1036 | about Die Hard. | 关于死硬。 |
| 1037 | How hard can it be, right? | 有多难,对不对? |
| 1038 | So, and also Die Hard Five is an utterly known quantity. | 所以,还有Die Hard Five 是一个完全已知的数量。 |
| 1039 | That's not the problem. | 这不是问题所在。 |
| 1040 | The problem is, you know, you get something like | 问题是,你知道, 你得到的东西喜欢 |
| 1041 | All in the Family, which had terrible focus group. | 所有的家庭, 有可怕的焦点小组。 |
| 1042 | You should have never made it to air. | 你不应该让它升空。 |
| 1043 | Only made it to air by a kind of chit. | 只有一种气味才能飞到空中 |
| 1044 | Yeah, and all these things that do, | 是啊,所有这些事情, |
| 1045 | that's something that's a radical departure | 那是个激进的转变 |
| 1046 | from the mainstream. | 从主流。 |
| 1047 | That's where the focus group is gonna have | 焦点小组就在那里 |
| 1048 | increasing little validity. | 越来越少的有效性。 |
| 1049 | Now, so much that comes onto the marketplace | 现在,这么多 进入市场 |
| 1050 | is purely derivative that you could probably | 纯粹的衍生物,你可能 |
| 1051 | pop up your numbers on focus groups | 在焦点组中弹出数字 |
| 1052 | if that's all you're testing. | 如果你只是测试。 |
| 1053 | And if, you know, so, and for people who traffic | 如果,你知道,这样, 对于交通的人 |
| 1054 | only in derivative products, then not so bad. | 只在衍生产品中,那么没那么糟糕。 |
| 1055 | But I'm assuming that right here, | 但我假设在这里, |
| 1056 | your interests run beyond purely derivative products, right? | 你的兴趣超出了纯粹的衍生产品,对吧? |
| 1057 | You actually, occasionally, more than occasionally, | 其实,偶尔,不止偶尔 |
| 1058 | come out with products that challenge people, | 拿出挑战人类的产品 |
| 1059 | that require them to reorganize their mental universe. | 这要求他们重组 自己的精神宇宙。 |
| 1060 | You can't focus group that, right? | 你不能把注意力集中到这个组,对吧? |
| 1061 | That's where it would really fall down. | 在那里它会真正下降。 |
| 1062 | Implications of snap judgments. | 快速判决的影响。 |
| 1063 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1064 | Are people in the voting booth making a snap judgment | 投票亭里的人在做一个快速的判断 |
| 1065 | or have they been taking in months and months | 或者他们几个月或几个月以来 |
| 1066 | of information and careful consideration? | 资料和仔细考虑? |
| 1067 | I get that question every time I talk in the Northwest. | 我每次在西北区说话都会问这个问题 |
| 1068 | And I always have the same answer, | 我总是有同样的答案, |
| 1069 | which is that I am a Canadian. | 我是一个加拿大人。 |
| 1070 | And I have absolutely no understanding | 我绝对不明白 |
| 1071 | of the American political process. | 美国的政治进程。 |
| 1072 | And each year that passes in this country, | 在这个国家的每一年 |
| 1073 | I find myself having less and less understanding | 我发现自己越来越不理解 |
| 1074 | of the American political process. | 美国的政治进程。 |
| 1075 | So I have no clue. | ┮иぃ笵 |
| 1076 | I don't think it doesn't, the notion, | 我不认为它没有,这个概念, |
| 1077 | there is a notion in the political world | 政治界有个概念 |
| 1078 | that I find utterly puzzling, | 我感到很困惑, |
| 1079 | which is that it is a snap judgment. | 也就是说这是个快速判断 |
| 1080 | And that there are somehow large percentage of voters | 选民比例很高 |
| 1081 | up for grabs right up to November, you know, second. | 11月之前,你知道的,第二。 |
| 1082 | How could you be up for, I don't, | 你怎么会高兴呢? |
| 1083 | I don't understand, the notion of undecided | 我不明白,没有决定的概念 |
| 1084 | is so weird to me. | 对我来说太奇怪了 |
| 1085 | And that you would actually, | 而且你实际上, |
| 1086 | you would actually be in the booth and you'd be like, whoa. | 你其实是在摊位上, 你会喜欢,哇。 |
| 1087 | You know, like, you know, oh, it's an election. | 你知道,就像,你知道, 哦,这是一个选举。 |
| 1088 | I gotta just, you know. | 我必须... |
| 1089 | So I steer clear, with the exception of telling the story | 所以除了讲故事之外,我还是走得很清楚 |
| 1090 | of Warren Harding in my book, | 我书中的沃伦·哈丁 |
| 1091 | who I think is a wonderfully emblematic figure. | 我认为他是一个出色的象征人物。 |
| 1092 | I don't say, I really have nothing to say about politics. | 我不说,我真的没什么要说的政治。 |
| 1093 | Not a political person. | 不是个政治人物 |
| 1094 | I've been biased against this side. | 我对这边有偏见 |
| 1095 | So how about a similar thing that you do have in Canada, | 那么,一个类似的事情 你在加拿大, |
| 1096 | I think, like juries. | 我想,像陪审团。 |
| 1097 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1098 | Does, did you, I mean, does any of your research | 你是否做过研究? |
| 1099 | sort of relate to how decisions are made in the jury room? | 和陪审团如何做出决定有关? |
| 1100 | Well, I don't have any stuff on juries | 我没有陪审员 |
| 1101 | because we're just getting there. | 因为我们刚刚到那里。 |
| 1102 | Like, the core of psychological research | 就像心理学研究的核心 |
| 1103 | that I was interested in in this book | 我对这本书感兴趣 |
| 1104 | is a bunch of people who are examining things | 是一群正在检查事物的人 |
| 1105 | like our levels of, | 就像我们的水平, |
| 1106 | what attitudes do we carry with us unconsciously? | 我们无意识地带着什么态度? |
| 1107 | And what impact do we have in our behavior? | 我们的行为有什么影响? |
| 1108 | And what we, we've gotten to the point now | 而我们,我们已经到了重点 |
| 1109 | where we understand that there is a clear distinction | 我们明白有明确的区别 |
| 1110 | between our unconscious and our conscious attitudes. | 我们的无意识和有意识的态度之间 |
| 1111 | They have nothing in common with each other. | 他们之间没有任何共同点。 |
| 1112 | That you can consciously be, for example, | 举例来说,你可以有意识的 |
| 1113 | an extraordinarily liberal person | 自由主义者 |
| 1114 | and yet simultaneously harbor quite retrograde views | 并同时隐藏相当倒退的视图 |
| 1115 | on those same subjects. | 同样的主题。 |
| 1116 | And that those unconscious beliefs will affect things | 那些无意识的信仰会影响事物 |
| 1117 | like how you spontaneously behave around someone. | 就像你自发在别人身边的行为 |
| 1118 | So let's say that I'm someone who has, | 这么说吧,我是一个有... |
| 1119 | who's consciously very liberal and unconsciously not. | 他自觉地非常自由 和无意识地不是。 |
| 1120 | So I might be perfectly open to | 所以,我可能 完全开放 |
| 1121 | taking applications and seriously considering | 认真对待申请 |
| 1122 | African Americans for a position in my company. | 非裔美国人要我公司的职位 |
| 1123 | But when I actually meet them, | 但当我遇到他们时, |
| 1124 | my spontaneous, unplanned, unconscious behavior | 我自发的,无计划的,无意识的行为 |
| 1125 | might be quite hostile. | 也许很敌对 |
| 1126 | And I would be totally unaware of that. | 我将完全不知道这一点。 |
| 1127 | But it would significantly distort | 但它会严重扭曲 |
| 1128 | the outcome of the interview. | 采访结果。 |
| 1129 | So that's where we are right now. | 这就是我们现在的位置。 |
| 1130 | We understand these things exist. | 我们知道这些东西是存在的。 |
| 1131 | And now we're trying to figure out, are we? | 而现在我们正试着想个办法 是吗? |
| 1132 | Psychologists are trying to figure out | 心理学家们正在想办法 |
| 1133 | precisely what does that, | 这到底是怎么回事? |
| 1134 | what difference does that make in settings like | 这有什么区别,在像 |
| 1135 | jury trials? | 陪审团审判? |
| 1136 | The presumption so far appears to be, | 迄今为止的推定似乎是, |
| 1137 | it's gotta make a big difference. | 这会有很大的改变。 |
| 1138 | And I would love to see, you couldn't do this, of course, | 我很想看,你无法做到这一点,当然, |
| 1139 | because no profession is more deeply resistant | 因为没有职业更能抵抗 |
| 1140 | to the findings of science or the findings even of reason | 科学结论或甚至理性结论 |
| 1141 | than the legal profession. | 比法律专业。 |
| 1142 | But you know, let's just do a simple series of experiments | 但你知道,我们只是做一系列简单的实验 |
| 1143 | where we put a screen up where you can either see | 我们放一个屏幕 在那里你可以看到 |
| 1144 | nor listen to the accent of the person charged, right? | 也不听被告的口音 对吧? |
| 1145 | Let's just have, let's put the defendant, | 让我们只是, 让我们把被告, |
| 1146 | give him a screen, let the defendant email with the jury, | 给他一个屏幕, 让被告电子邮件与陪审团, |
| 1147 | or email with his responses or her responses | 或电子邮件及其答复 |
| 1148 | to the lawyers, the prosecutor. | 给律师 检察官 |
| 1149 | And let's see if that makes a difference. | 让我们看看这有什么区别。 |
| 1150 | I would be very surprised if it didn't. | 如果不是这样,我会非常惊讶。 |
| 1151 | And I would think that if we were trying to construct | 我想如果我们试图构建 |
| 1152 | a sort of more just society, | 一种更公正的社会, |
| 1153 | we would start to seriously consider | 我们开始认真考虑 |
| 1154 | those kind of considerations. | 那种考虑。 |
| 1155 | Nicole. | 妮科尔。 |
| 1156 | So I found the most fascinating thing about your book | 我发现你的书最吸引人 |
| 1157 | is this idea that we have to restrict the information | 是这个想法,我们必须限制信息 |
| 1158 | that we have available to us. | 已经为我们提供了。 |
| 1159 | And I wonder if that also could apply at a societal level. | 我想知道这是否也可以在社会层面适用。 |
| 1160 | Recently there's been people talking, | 最近有人在说话 |
| 1161 | you know, the Harvard guy who mentioned, | 你知道,哈佛的家伙 谁提到, |
| 1162 | something that's fairly well-established, | 某种相当成熟的东西, |
| 1163 | there's differences between men and women | 男女之间有差别 |
| 1164 | on certain kinds of activities, | 关于某些种类的活动, |
| 1165 | but maybe it's a society we're trying to say, | 但也许这是一个社会 我们试图说, |
| 1166 | we don't wanna know what's actually gonna lead us | 我们不想知道什么才是真正的线索 |
| 1167 | to making a bad decision that we don't wanna make. | 做一个我们不想做的不好的决定 |
| 1168 | So let's just, is it quite possible | 所以,让我们只是, 这是相当可能的 |
| 1169 | that some things we're just better off the side | 有些事情,我们只是更好 边上 |
| 1170 | of not knowing about because we know | 不知道,因为我们知道 |
| 1171 | it's gonna lead to us making wrong decisions? | 这会导致我们做出错误的决定? |
| 1172 | The question's a very interesting one, | 这个问题非常有趣 |
| 1173 | and that is about the benefits of information restriction. | 这就是信息限制的好处。 |
| 1174 | And I would make a distinction between, | 我要区分一下 |
| 1175 | in the book I talk about specific kinds of decisions | 在书里,我谈到 具体类型的决定 |
| 1176 | that are, snap decisions, that are markedly improved | 即即时决定,这些决定明显改进 |
| 1177 | by deliberate attempts to restrict | 蓄意试图限制 |
| 1178 | the quantity of information that's on the table. | 上面的信息数量 |
| 1179 | And that's pretty clear, that as human beings | 很明显,作为人类 |
| 1180 | one of the things we do is systematically overestimate | 我们做的其中一件事 是系统高估 |
| 1181 | the value of marginal pieces of information. | 边际信息值。 |
| 1182 | And time and time again you can see | 一次又一次的,你可以看到 |
| 1183 | that people making predictions, | 以预测者发誓, |
| 1184 | the classic study of this is, | 经典研究是, |
| 1185 | you take a group of psychologists, | 你带一群心理学家 |
| 1186 | and you say, we would like you to make a diagnosis | 你说,我们想请你做个诊断 |
| 1187 | about a patient, and we're gonna see | 关于病人,我们会看到 |
| 1188 | how accurate your diagnosis is, right? | 你的诊断有多准确? |
| 1189 | So you start out and you give them, | 所以你开始给他们, |
| 1190 | the psychologist, a paragraph about the patient. | 心理学家,关于病人的一段 |
| 1191 | Then you come back and you give them | 然后你回来给他们 |
| 1192 | and you see what they say, and then you say, | 你看见他们说的,你就说: |
| 1193 | well how confident are you in your diagnosis? | 你对诊断有多有信心? |
| 1194 | You measure confidence and you measure | 你测量信心,你测量信心, |
| 1195 | what the diagnosis is. | 什么诊断。 |
| 1196 | Then you give them a page, then you give them five pages, | 然后给他们一页 然后给他们五页 |
| 1197 | and then you give them 10 pages of information. | 然后给他们10页的信息。 |
| 1198 | And what you find is that regardless | 你所发现的,是无论 |
| 1199 | of how much information you give them, | 你给他们多少信息 |
| 1200 | the accuracy of the diagnosis remains exactly the same. | 诊断的准确性完全不变。 |
| 1201 | What changes is their confidence in the diagnosis, right? | 什么变化是他们对诊断的信心,对不对? |
| 1202 | With a paragraph, they have very little confidence | 有了一段,他们几乎没有信心 |
| 1203 | in what they're doing. | 他们在做什么。 |
| 1204 | With 10 pages of information, | 有了10页的信息, |
| 1205 | they think they're absolutely right. | 他们认为他们完全正确。 |
| 1206 | As it turns out, their success rate, | 结果发现他们的成功率 |
| 1207 | their accuracy rate is very, very low in all cases. | 他们的准确率在所有情况下都非常非常低。 |
| 1208 | But, so our attraction to more data | 但是,所以我们吸引更多的数据 |
| 1209 | is not about improving the accuracy of our conclusion, | 这不是要提高我们结论的准确性, |
| 1210 | it's about just improving our psychological state, right? | 只是想改善我们的心理状态,对不对? |
| 1211 | About our confidence in the decision that we're making. | 关于我们对决定的信心 |
| 1212 | So that's a very important case on a case by case basis. | 所以,这是一个非常重要的案件 逐个案例。 |
| 1213 | There are instances where we may want | 有些情况下我们可能想要 |
| 1214 | to clear the playing field. | 来清理比赛场地 |
| 1215 | But to go, I can't resist responding | 但是,去,我不能抗拒 反应 |
| 1216 | to the Pacific comment about Mr. Summers at Harvard, | 对哈佛的夏默斯先生的评论 |
| 1217 | and his comment about women. | 和他对女人的评论。 |
| 1218 | There, what he's making is a kind of classic, | 他做的是一种经典的 |
| 1219 | I'll even go so far to use the et hominem, | 我甚至会走这么远 使用与人类, |
| 1220 | a classic economist there. | 一个典型的经济学家 |
| 1221 | His assumption is that there is no difference, | 他的假设是,没有区别, |
| 1222 | there is no denying that there are differences, | 不可否认的是,有分歧, |
| 1223 | substantial differences between men and women. | 男女差别很大。 |
| 1224 | But the question is, are the differences between men | 但问题是 男人之间的差别 |
| 1225 | and women greater than the differences within each gender? | 与性别的差异相比,妇女更强大? |
| 1226 | And the answer is they're not. | 答案是他们没有 |
| 1227 | They are, on the scale of things that separate individuals, | 它们是,在物 分离个人, |
| 1228 | relatively trivial. | 相对微不足道。 |
| 1229 | So it's not that you can't say there are differences | 所以你不能说有区别 |
| 1230 | between men and women, it's just that they're just | 男人和女人之间,他们只是 |
| 1231 | not that important, and it's not likely to be | 没那么重要 也不可能 |
| 1232 | the principle difference in explaining | 解释中的主要区别 |
| 1233 | why women might succeed at a certain field. | 为什么妇女可以在某个领域取得成功。 |
| 1234 | Especially if you mention it, because the point being, | 特别是如果你提到它, 因为重点是, |
| 1235 | if he's mentioning that, you actually mentioned | 如果他提到这一点, 你真的提到 |
| 1236 | in your book that women are more likely to do worse | 在你的书中,女人更有可能做坏事 |
| 1237 | than a test of math, if they've mentioned the fact | 比数学测试, 如果他们已经提到的事实 |
| 1238 | that women do worse than a test of math. | 女人比数学测试更糟糕 |
| 1239 | As an administrator, it's like it's a particular burden, | 作为一个管理员,这就像一个特别的负担, |
| 1240 | even if it were actually true in a substantial way | 即使事实上是真的 |
| 1241 | not to be mentioning it so that he doesn't disadvantage | 别提了 这样他才不会不利 |
| 1242 | those people who are, for whom within the group, | 这些人,为谁 在群体, |
| 1243 | they can be successful. | 他们可以成功。 |
| 1244 | No, I think you're right. | 不,我认为你是对的。 |
| 1245 | Two more questions. | 又二问. |
| 1246 | Right ahead. | 就在前方,我们先走 |
| 1247 | What point do you think the lack of information | 你觉得缺乏信息有什么意义 |
| 1248 | becomes a bad thing for information? | 成为坏消息? |
| 1249 | You can imagine, you send somebody an email, | 你可以想象,你给别人发邮件, |
| 1250 | they read it, this scenario you mentioned there, | 他们读了,你提到的这个情景, |
| 1251 | emailing the jury back and forth, | 一遍又一遍地给陪审团发邮件 |
| 1252 | what's lost is a lot of the extra information | 损失的是很多额外信息 |
| 1253 | that carries in people's voices, | 那些能传动人们的声音的, |
| 1254 | even if that could have been used negatively, | 即使这可以被消极地使用, |
| 1255 | it could have also been used positively. | 也可以积极使用。 |
| 1256 | So at which point, online and saying, | 所以在那个时候 在网上说 |
| 1257 | that's good information to add, that's bad information? | 这是很好的信息补充, 这是坏信息? |
| 1258 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1259 | Yeah, the question is, what's the floor? | 问题是,地板是多少? |
| 1260 | At which point does limiting information | 何时限制信息 |
| 1261 | start to do more harm than good? | 开始做更多的伤害 比好? |
| 1262 | And there absolutely is a floor, | 绝对有一层楼 |
| 1263 | but I will only say that I think in many of the cases | 但我只想说,在很多情况下 |
| 1264 | that people are interested in reforming, | 人们对改革感兴趣, |
| 1265 | we're a long way from the floor. | 我们离地板很远 |
| 1266 | I don't think that even if you restricted, | 我不认为,即使你限制, |
| 1267 | in a standard criminal jury trial, | 在标准的刑事陪审团审判中, |
| 1268 | even if you restricted access to visual or oral information | 即使限制你获取视觉或口头信息 |
| 1269 | about the defendant, you would be somehow | 关于被告,你会不知何故 |
| 1270 | lacking for information. | 缺少信息。 |
| 1271 | You're still flooded with stuff about this person. | 你仍然被他的东西淹没 |
| 1272 | It's just that it's all confined to a relatively narrow | 只是,它的所有限制 在一个相对狭小的 |
| 1273 | emotional band and sensory band. | 情感乐队和感官乐队. |
| 1274 | I don't have any problem with what I'm losing, | 我对失去的东西没有任何问题, |
| 1275 | because like I said, the mistake many patients, | 因为正如我所说 许多病人的错误 |
| 1276 | many juries make is they end up deciding | 许多陪审团最后决定 |
| 1277 | whether they like the person or not. | 不管他们是否喜欢这个人 |
| 1278 | And we are manifestly uninterested | 而且我们明显没有兴趣 |
| 1279 | in whether you like the defendant. | 无论你是否喜欢被告 |
| 1280 | The issue is only whether the defendant | 问题只是被告是否 |
| 1281 | is guilty or innocent. | 有罪或无罪 |
| 1282 | And so I'm quite happy with what I take off the table | 所以我很满意我脱下桌子的事 |
| 1283 | in that instance. | 那样的话 |
| 1284 | But one last question. | 但最后一个问题。 |
| 1285 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 1286 | So could you comment on the effect of time? | 你能评论一下时间的影响吗? |
| 1287 | Because one of the things that in snap judgment, | 因为其中之一 在快速判断, |
| 1288 | the whole notion of a snap judgment | 快速判决的整个概念 |
| 1289 | is that you're forced to make it immediately. | 你被迫马上赶到 |
| 1290 | And having both done and been part of user tests | 既做了也参与了用户测试 |
| 1291 | and things like that, you can definitely see situations | 和类似的事情,你肯定可以看到情况 |
| 1292 | where someone's like, okay, well what did you think of that? | 好吧 你觉得呢? |
| 1293 | And it's very, it's kind of overwhelming. | 它非常,它有点压倒性。 |
| 1294 | And had you had a day or something, | 你曾经有过一天什么的, |
| 1295 | you might respond very differently. | 你的反应可能很不一样 |
| 1296 | I wonder if anybody's tried to do studies | 不知道有没有人想学习 |
| 1297 | where they're trying to see like with a chair or something. | 他们试图看到 像用椅子什么的。 |
| 1298 | Time, this is a, the question is about the effect of time | 时间,这是a,问题在于时间的效果 |
| 1299 | on snap judgments. | 快速判断。 |
| 1300 | And it's a shame this is the last question, | 可惜这是最后一个问题 |
| 1301 | because this is actually a really, really, really huge issue. | 因为这其实是一个非常,非常,非常大的问题。 |
| 1302 | And I touch on it a number of places in the book. | 我在书中提到了一些地方。 |
| 1303 | Just to briefly, there's a chapter in the book, | 简言之 书中有一章 |
| 1304 | I'll just talk about one aspect of this, | 我只想谈谈这个方面, |
| 1305 | which is, there's a chapter in the book about cops, | 书里有一章关于警察 |
| 1306 | police work, about the shooting of Amadou Diallo, | 警方关于阿马杜·迪亚洛被枪击案的工作 |
| 1307 | in which I talk a lot about the kind of decisions | 在其中我谈论了很多 什么样的决定 |
| 1308 | that police officers make. | 这是警察做的。 |
| 1309 | And the question is, cops have to make | 问题是,警察必须... |
| 1310 | snap judgments all the time. | 时不时地做出判断 |
| 1311 | So what distinguishes a good police officer's | 那么,什么区别 一个好警官的 |
| 1312 | snap judgment from a bad one? | 从一个坏的判断? |
| 1313 | And there, it really does seem to be the case | 在那里,它真的 似乎是这样 |
| 1314 | that to the extent that you can slow down | 只要能慢下来 |
| 1315 | the situation they're in, they'll make a better | 他们的处境会更好 |
| 1316 | and better snap judgment. | 最好快点判断 |
| 1317 | Now, their definition of slow | 现在,他们定义慢 |
| 1318 | is different from your definition of slow. | 与你对慢的定义不同 |
| 1319 | So, classic example is the shooting of President Reagan | 典型的例子就是里根总统被枪杀 |
| 1320 | in 1981, or three, I forgot, three, I think it was. | 1981年,或者三,我忘了,三,我想是的。 |
| 1321 | You remember this, that John, he's outside | 你还记得,约翰,他在外面 |
| 1322 | the Washington Hilton, Reagan's giving a speech, | 华盛顿希尔顿,里根的演讲, |
| 1323 | he's coming out, John Hinckley's in the crowd, | 他出来了 约翰·欣克利在人群中 |
| 1324 | they're pressing around Reagan, | 他们在逼迫里根 |
| 1325 | Hinckley's arm reaches out, he's got a 22, | Hinkley的手臂伸出来,他有22, |
| 1326 | he fires, I think, five shots. | 他开了五枪 |
| 1327 | The bodyguards grab him, wrestle him to the ground. | 保镖抓住他,把他摔到地上 |
| 1328 | Now, how long do you think, how much time do you think | 现在,你认为多久, 你觉得多少时间 |
| 1329 | elapsed between the first moment at which John Hinckley | 在约翰·欣克利的第一时间 |
| 1330 | was spotted, at which the attack became evident, | 被发现, 袭击变得很明显, |
| 1331 | and when all the shots were fired and John Hinckley | 当枪声响起 约翰·欣克利 |
| 1332 | was lying prone on the ground? | 躺在地上很容易吗? |
| 1333 | How much time? | 多长时间? |
| 1334 | 1.8 seconds. | 1.8秒,我马上回来 |
| 1335 | Now, in 1.8 seconds, this is the answer to the question | 现在,在1.8秒内, 这是问题的答案 |
| 1336 | of why Reagan got shot. | 为什么里根中枪了 |
| 1337 | In 1.8 seconds, how good a snap judgment | 在1.8秒内, 如何好的快速判断 |
| 1338 | can a bodyguard make? | 保镖能做吗? |
| 1339 | The answer is, not a good one at all. | 答案是,不是一个好的。 |
| 1340 | You can't do it, 1.8 seconds, as a bodyguard, | 你不能做,1.8秒 作为保镖, |
| 1341 | all you can do is this, they go for their guns. | 你只能这样 他们要枪 |
| 1342 | Now, if you talk to bodyguards, they will say, | 如果你和保镖说话 他们会说 |
| 1343 | that's one of the biggest errors in the body, | 这是身体最大的错误之一, |
| 1344 | this is a big argument in the bodyguard business, | 这是保镖生意上的一个大争论 |
| 1345 | and that is, the big argument is, | 也就是说,最大的争论是, |
| 1346 | should bodyguards have guns, right? | 保镖应该有枪吗? |
| 1347 | Now, we would all say, well, of course, | 现在,我们都说,当然, |
| 1348 | but many of them say, actually, no, | 但其中很多人说,实际上,没有, |
| 1349 | because attacks take place in such a short period of time, | 因为袭击发生在这么短的时间内, |
| 1350 | you have a limited number of time of things you can do | 你的时间有限 你可以做的事情 |
| 1351 | and decisions you can make, right? | 和你可以做的决定,对不对? |
| 1352 | If it's 1.8 seconds and you go like this, | 如果只有1.8秒 你就像这样走 |
| 1353 | you've squandered your 1.8 seconds, right? | 你浪费了1.8秒,对吧? |
| 1354 | You're going for your gun to do what? | 你要拿枪做什么? |
| 1355 | The guy's firing shots right now, | 他正在开枪 |
| 1356 | the damage is being done right now, | 伤害正在发生 |
| 1357 | your first instinct should rather be | 你的第一直觉应该 |
| 1358 | to put yourself between the shooter and the target | 将自己置于枪手与目标之间 |
| 1359 | or to take Reagan and to pull him down to the ground. | 或将里根拖下地 |
| 1360 | Instead, all these guys go like this, | 相反,所有这些家伙都这样, |
| 1361 | and Reagan gets shot, right? | 里根被枪杀了,对吧? |
| 1362 | So take away the gun, that's what they always say. | 所以把枪拿走 他们总是这么说 |
| 1363 | In any case, that's a separate, | 无论如何,这是单独的, |
| 1364 | but the whole game there then, | 但当时的比赛, |
| 1365 | if you wanna make bodyguards or cops | 如果你想做保镖或警察 |
| 1366 | make better decisions, is you gotta find some way | 做更好的决定,是 你必须找到一些方法 |
| 1367 | to inject some time into that process. | 给这一过程注入一些时间。 |
| 1368 | So that's why now, quite unlike in Reagan's time, | 这就是为什么现在, 相当不像里根的时间, |
| 1369 | if you're a bodyguard and guarding the president, | 如果你是保镖 守卫总统 |
| 1370 | there'll be what they call white space. | 会有他们所谓的白色空间。 |
| 1371 | There'll be 15 feet between the president | 总统离这里15英尺 |
| 1372 | and any unknown person at any given time, | 以及任何不明身份的人, |
| 1373 | and that's because 15 feet equals, | 那是因为15英尺的距离 |
| 1374 | yeah, a second or 0.5 of a second, | 是啊,一秒钟或0.5秒, |
| 1375 | and that's all the difference in the world. | 而此一切世间差别. |
| 1376 | And the same thing with cops, | 和警察一样, |
| 1377 | that there's been an enormous amount of research | 有大量的研究 |
| 1378 | and work and training in recent years | 近年来的工作和培训 |
| 1379 | in trying to train cops about how to inject time | 试图训练警察如何注入时间 |
| 1380 | into dangerous situations. | 进入危险境地 |
| 1381 | So don't leave your vehicle, stay in your vehicle, | 所以不要离开你的车,留在你的车上, |
| 1382 | ready for help, never, a cop should, | 准备好求助,永远不要,警察应该, |
| 1383 | well, this gets into a whole nother thing, | 好吧,这进到一个整体 不是她的事情, |
| 1384 | but the whole thing about cops, | 但关于警察的整件事 |
| 1385 | the number of situations where they ever chase people | 他们追逐过多少人 |
| 1386 | should be severely limited, | 应严格限制, |
| 1387 | because you don't wanna ever be rushing after someone | 因为你不想冲着别人 |
| 1388 | because that creates this kind of... | 因为那样就... |
| 1389 | But it's a really, really big issue | 但这是个大问题 |
| 1390 | that there is a kind of balance | 有一种平衡 |
| 1391 | that you need to snap judgement. | 你需要做出判断 |
| 1392 | Paradoxically, you need some time to properly germinate. | 矛盾的是,你需要一些时间 适当的发芽。 |
| 1393 | So, anyway, well thank you all very much. | 所以,无论如何,非常感谢大家。 |
| 1394 | Anyway, well thank you all very much. | 总之,非常感谢大家。 |
| 1395 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 1396 | That was an excellent thing to talk about. | 说得真好 |
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