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实战练英文 | 川普首席经济顾问笑谈关税与大而美法案,一再打

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时间英文中文
0:00We turn now to Kevin Hassett.现在轮到凯文·哈塞特
0:01He is the director of the National Economic Council他是国家经济委员会主任
0:04and one of President Trump's top advisors.也是特朗普总统的最高顾问之一
0:06He's also very popular on that driveway他在车道上也很受欢迎
0:09where I'm usually alongside about a dozen reporters.我通常跟十几个记者在一起
0:12So Kevin, thank you so much for your time this morning.凯文,非常感谢你今天早上抽空来
0:16I wanna start with trade我想从贸易开始
0:17because there's a big deadline coming up on Wednesday.因为周三有个大期限
0:21As you know, that 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs如你所知,对等关税暂停90天
0:24that the president announced back in April is set to end.总统在4月份宣布结束
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序号英文中文
1We turn now to Kevin Hassett.现在轮到凯文·哈塞特
2He is the director of the National Economic Council他是国家经济委员会主任
3and one of President Trump's top advisors.也是特朗普总统的最高顾问之一
4He's also very popular on that driveway他在车道上也很受欢迎
5where I'm usually alongside about a dozen reporters.我通常跟十几个记者在一起
6So Kevin, thank you so much for your time this morning.凯文,非常感谢你今天早上抽空来
7I wanna start with trade我想从贸易开始
8because there's a big deadline coming up on Wednesday.因为周三有个大期限
9As you know, that 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs如你所知,对等关税暂停90天
10that the president announced back in April is set to end.总统在4月份宣布结束
11So far, the U.S. has announced a few deals,到目前为止,美国已经宣布了一些交易,
12the UK, Vietnam, and you're inching closer英国,越南,你越来越近了
13to a final agreement with China.与中国达成最后协议。
14Do you expect to get any more deals done你还想得到更多的交易吗?
15with America's biggest trading partners by Wednesday?星期三之前 与美国最大的贸易伙伴?
16Yeah, first, I do have to take a pause是啊,首先,我必须暂停一下
17and share your thoughts and prayers并分享你们的心思和祈祷,
18with the people of Texas.和德克萨斯人在一起
19It's an incredible, heartbreaking story,这是一个不可思议,令人心碎的故事,
20and Kristi Noem and the president克里斯蒂·诺姆和总统
21have instructed the federal government已经指示联邦政府
22to throw everything they've got at helping the survivors尽他们所能帮助幸存者
23and helping clean up that place.并帮助清理这个地方。
24So anyway, I'm really heartbroken today总之,我今天真的很伤心
25to see these stories,看这些故事,
26and I want you to know that in the White House,我想让你知道 在白宫,
27everybody is putting every effort they can大家都尽力了
28into helping the people of Texas today.今天帮助德州人民
29On trade, there's going to be quite a bit of news this week,关于贸易,这周会有很多消息
30and I think the headline of the news我觉得新闻的头条
31is that there are going to be deals that are finalized.将会有最后的交易
32There are a whole number that James and Greer詹姆士和葛瑞尔的号码
33has negotiated with foreign governments,与外国政府谈判,
34and then there are gonna be letters然后会有信
35that are sent to countries saying,他们被派到各国,
36here's how we think it ought to go我们是这样认为的
37because the deals aren't advanced enough.因为交易不够先进
38And the headline is going to be标题是
39that countries are agreeing around the world世界各国正在达成协议
40to open their markets up to our products打开我们的市场
41and to allow us to put some kind of tariff并允许我们设置某种关税
42on their products when they come into the US.当他们进入美国时,
43And exactly what the numbers will be确切的数字是什么
44will be things that you'll find out in the news this week.这星期新闻会告诉你的
45And Kevin, you said there are going to be deals.Kevin 你说会有交易的
46For those really important trading partners,对于这些真正重要的贸易伙伴,
47if there's not a deal by Wednesday,如果星期三之前没有交易
48is the president going to extend this pause?总统会延长暂停时间吗?
49You know, the United States is always willing to talk你知道,美国总是愿意谈
50to everybody about everything that's going on in the world,告诉大家世界上的一切
51and there are deadlines, and there are things有期限,有事情
52that are close, and so maybe things关系很密切,所以也许
53will push past the deadline, or maybe they won't.否则他们可能不会
54In the end, the president's going to make that judgment.最终,总统会做出这样的判断.
55And you also mentioned those letters你还提到那些信
56that will start going out tomorrow,那明天就会出去了
57according to President Trump.根据川普总统的说法
58He said about 10 to 12 countries will receive them.他说,大约10至12个国家将接受这些援助。
59Can you tell us who's gonna get one and what they say?你能告诉我们谁能得到一个 和他们说什么?
60I can't, because again, the part of the letter我不能,因为,再次, 字母的部分
61that could be happening, right,这有可能发生,对吗,
62is that we're close to a deal,即我们接近交易,
63we're not really satisfied with the progress我们对进展并不满意
64that we're making at the deal,我们正在做交易,
65and so we're saying, okay, fine,所以我们说,好吧,好吧,
66we're gonna send a letter,我们要发一封信
67but maybe you get a deal at the last minute too.但也许最后一刻你也会达成协议的
68Until we see everything that plays out,直到我们看到一切发生,
69I think that we need to just hold our fire我认为我们需要保持我们的火力
70and watch for the news this week.看这星期的新闻。
71Is it fair to say that those notices这么说公平吗?
72are gonna go to our smaller trading partners将去我们的小贸易伙伴
73as you negotiate with our bigger ones?你和我们大个子谈判的时候
74I think that it could be that it'll be both,我认为,这可能是 这将是两者,
75but also don't forget that when we have great trade deals,但别忘了当我们有大交易时
76our smaller trading partners我们较小的贸易伙伴
77could become much bigger trading partners.可以成为更大的贸易伙伴。
78And that's, I think, one of the reasons这也是,我想,原因之一
79why countries are racing to set deals up with us为什么各国竞相与我们交易
80ahead of the deadline.超过期限。
81I have to ask you about the deadlines, Kevin,我要问你最后期限,凯文
82to make these deals, because you just mentioned因为你刚刚提到
83you're always open.你总是开放。
84The president said there's not really any flexibility left总统说,真的没有 任何灵活性
85between now and Wednesday.从现在到星期三
86Less than two weeks ago,不到两周前,
87the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant,财政部长斯科特·贝桑特
88said that deals would be wrapped up by Labor Day.说交易将在劳动节结束
89So I wonder, how can companies plan所以我想知道,公司如何计划
90if the goalposts keep moving?如果门柱继续移动?
91How can countries negotiate各国如何谈判
92if they don't even know how much time they have left?如果他们甚至不知道他们还剩多少时间?
93Right, well, the rough outlines of the deals交易的大致轮廓
94are becoming clear to everybody,所有人都开始明白
95because we have some deals like the UK and the Vietnam deal因为我们有些交易 比如英国和越南的交易
96that are starting to be, I guess,这开始,我想,
97guidelines for what might happen.关于可能发生的情况的准则。
98But one of the things that we're seeing但我们看到的一件事
99that's really interesting to me这对我来说真的很有趣
100is that people are just on-shoring production是人们只是上岸生产
101of the U.S. at a record rate.美国以创纪录的速度。
102And so we've had record job creation,所以我们创造了创纪录的就业机会,
103record capital spending,记录资本支出,
104and this is even ahead of the big, beautiful bill.这甚至比大而漂亮的法案还早
105And so I think what's happening is that people所以我认为现在的情况是人们
106are responding to President Trump's potential threats特朗普总统的潜在威胁
107to have high tariffs on countries* 对各国征收高关税
108by moving their activity here into the U.S.,把他们的活动转移到美国
109which is creating jobs, more than two million jobs创造了200多万个就业机会
110since he took office, and raising wages.自从他上任, 和增加工资。
111Wage growth is heading up towards工资增长正走向
112the really, really high pinnacles that we saw in 2017.我们在2017年看到的非常,非常高的顶峰。
113And so I think there's a race right now所以我觉得现在有一场比赛
114to get activity into the U.S.让活动进入美国
115And in part, that race has been kicked off比赛被淘汰了
116by President Trump.特朗普总统
117I remember after these reciprocal tariffs were announced,我记得在宣布对等关税之后
118you told me that there were about 15 deals你告诉我有大约15个交易
119that countries were bringing to the president.国家正在给总统带来。
120How close, if you could give us any number at all,多近,如果你能给我们任何号码,
121what number are we gonna see this week?这周我们要看几号?
122Yeah, you'll have to get that from James是啊,你得从詹姆斯那里得到这个
123and then the president.然后是总统
124I think that we've seen lots of deals我觉得我们见过很多交易
125that have been finalized by our negotiators,我们的谈判者最后敲定了
126and then the president finds things然后总统发现一些东西
127that could make them better.那会让他们更好
128And so I'm not gonna get ahead of the president所以我不会领先总统
129on the number of deals.关于交易数量。
130Okay, thanks, Kevin.好的,谢谢,凯文。
131We'll look out for that.我们会注意的
132I wanna move now to the one big, beautiful bill我现在想搬到一个大而漂亮的帐单上
133that, of course, the president signed into law当然,总统签署了法律
134on Independence Day.在独立日。
135You have it, and now you have to pay for it.你拥有它,现在你必须付出代价。
136And there's a consensus that this bill adds该法案增加了一个共识
137tremendously to the deficit.严重到赤字。
138I know that you are so familiar with these numbers.我知道你很熟悉这些数字
139The Yale Budget Lab estimates it will add耶鲁预算实验室估计会增加
140three trillion to the debt.三万亿还债.
141The tax foundation says this tax portion of the bill税基说法案的这个税部分
142could also add three trillion to the deficit.赤字还会增加3万亿美元。
143The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,负责的联邦预算委员会,
144which factors in interest on the debt,哪些因素是债务利息因素,
145says it could add up to $5 trillion over the next decade.说在未来的十年里可以增加到5万亿美元。
146And on this very program, even Speaker Johnson在这个节目里,甚至约翰逊议长
147answered in the affirmative when asked当被问到时,回答为肯定
148if this bill would add over $4 trillion to the deficit.如果这项法案将增加4万亿美元以上的赤字。
149I know that the administration says the bill我知道政府说法案
150will actually shrink the deficit by $1.5 trillion.赤字将减少1.5万亿美元
151Help me understand why there is such a drastic difference帮我理解为什么会有如此巨大的差别
152between your number and all those others.在你的号码和其他号码之间
153Well, first of all, let's remember that science首先,让我们记住科学
154is not democracy, truth is not democracy.这不是民主,真理不是民主。
155Our estimates are based on modeling that we used last time我们的估算是基于我们上次使用的模型
156when I was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers当我担任经济顾问委员会主席时
157to say what would happen if we had a bill,说如果我们有帐单会怎么样
158how much growth we would get.有多少增长,我们会得到。
159And we said, and we were criticized soundly,我们说,我们受到批评
160that we would get 3% growth.我们会得到3%的增长。
161And we even had the really technical macroeconomic models我们甚至有真正的技术 宏观经济模型
162that said that we would get 3% growth.说我们会得到3%的增长。
163We run the same models through this tax bill.我们通过这个税单运行同样的模式。
164It's even better.更无比也.
165And what we're seeing is that if you get 3% growth again,我们所看到的是,如果你再次得到3%的增长,
166then that's four trillion more in revenue than the CBO那比CBO的收入多四万亿
167and these other bodies are giving us credit for.并且这些其它机构 给我们的功劳。
168They have been wrong in the past,他们过去是错的,
169and they're being wrong again in our belief.他们又犯了错误 在我们的信念。
170But the thing that disappoints me但这件事让我失望
171is that if I put out a model,如果我拿出一个模型,
172and I say, hey, here's what's gonna happen,我说,嘿,接下来会发生什么,
173we're gonna get 3% growth.我们会得到3%的增长。
174And then it turns out it's one and a half percent growth,然后结果发现,这是1%半的增长,
175then as an academic economist, as a scientist,然后作为一个学术经济学家,作为一个科学家,
176then it's my duty to say, what did I get wrong?那么我有责任说,我错了什么?
177What did my model miss?我的模特错过了什么?
178These people aren't doing that.这些人不会这么做的
179And that's the thing that I find disappointing这也是我失望的事
180because we put peer-reviewed academic stuff on the table,因为我们把同行评审的学术材料放在桌上,
181said we're gonna get that 3% growth,说我们会得到3%的增长,
182and then we got it right last time,然后我们得到了它的权利 上次,
183and we believe we're gonna get it right this time.而我们相信我们这次会得到正确的。
184But if you think that 1.8% growth但如果你认为增长1.8%
185is what's gonna happen over the next 10 years,未来10年内会发生什么
186then you should agree with the CBO number.那你应该同意CBO的号码
187But there's another part of the CBO number但CBO号码还有另一部分
188that you need to worry about.你需要担心。
189And that is that if we don't pass the bill,这就是如果我们不通过法案,
190that it's the biggest tax hike in history.这是历史上最大的税收上涨。
191And with that big tax hike,加上税费的上涨
192then of course we would have a recession.当然,我们会有一个衰退。
193The CEA says that we'd have about a 4% drop in GDP中央能源局说,我们国内生产总值会下降4%
194and lose nine million jobs.失去九百万个工作
195If we had a 4% drop in GDP and we lost nine million jobs,如果我们的国内生产总值下降了4% 而我们失去了900万个工作,
196what would happen to the deficit?赤字会怎样?
197And so I don't think that the CBO has a very strong record.所以我不认为CBO有很强的记录.
198I don't think that these places have a very strong record.我不认为这些地方的记录非常有力.
199And what they need to do is get back to the basics他们需要做的是回到基础
200of looking at macroeconomic models.研究宏观经济模式。
201There's a really famous macroeconomist survivor有一个非常有名的宏观经济学家幸存者
202named Jim Stock.我叫吉姆・斯托克
203They should go back and read everything Jim Stock他们应该回去看所有的东西 Jim Stock
204has written for the last 15 years已经写了15年
205and fold those into their models并把这些放在他们的模型里,
206and then maybe we could talk.然后也许我们可以谈谈。
207I wanna talk to you, Kevin, about another number我想和你谈谈,凯文 关于另一个号码
208that I know you and the president disagree with,我知道你和总统不同意
209but that Democrats and many Republicans are worried about.但民主党和许多共和党人都担心
210And that's the CBO's projection这是CBO的投影
211that as many as 12 million Americans多达1200万美国人
212could lose Medicaid coverage because of this law.可能因为这项法律而失去医疗补助。
213What is the NEC's estimate国家选委的估计是什么?
214for how many people could lose coverage?有多少人会失去保险?
215Well, yeah, let's unbundle that a little bit嗯,是的,让我们拆开一点点
216because first on the CBO coverage, so what are we doing?我们在做什么?
217So what we're doing is we're asking for a work requirement,所以,我们正在做的是 我们要求一个工作要求,
218but the work requirement is that you need to be但工作要求是,你必须
219looking for work or even doing volunteer work寻找工作,甚至做志愿工作
220and you don't need to do it你不需要这么做
221until your kids are 14 or older.直到你的孩子14岁或14岁以上。
222And so the idea that that's gonna cause所以这个想法会引起
223a massive hemorrhaging in availability of insurance保险供应严重出血
224doesn't make a lot of sense to us.对我们来说没什么意义
225And that if you look at the CBO numbers,如果你看看CBO的号码
226if you look at the big numbers,如果你看大数字,
227they say that people are gonna lose insurance,他们说,人们会失去保险,
228about five million of those其中约500万
229are people who have other insurance.是有其他保险的人。
230There are people who have two types of insurance有两种保险的人
231and so therefore if they lose one, they're still insured.因此,如果他们失去了一个, 他们仍然有保险。
232And so the CBO numbers on that side那边的CBO数字
233don't make any sense to us at all,对我们没有任何意义,
234but on the other side, go back to 2017但另一边,回2017年
235when we had work requirements for Obamacare当我们有工作需要 奥巴马护理
236and they said that we lose about four million insured他们说我们损失了四百万的保险金
237between 2017 and 2019 and about double that2017年到2019年,大约翻了一番
238over the next 10 years.未来10年。
239And in fact, the number of insured went up quite a bit事实上,投保人数上升了很多
240by more than 10 million over those two years在这两年中增加1 000多万
241because the bottom line is the best way to get insurance因为底线是保险的最佳途径
242is to get a job.找份工作 找份工作
243And we've got a big, beautiful bill我们有一个大,美丽的比尔
244that's gonna create a lot of job creation这会创造很多就业机会
245and a lot of insurance和很多保险
246and the CBO is just not accounting for that.而CBO只是不考虑这一点。
247And again, they need to go back再说一遍,他们需要回去
248and look at all the things that they got wrong.看看他们搞错了什么
249You realize that they're underestimating Medicaid spending你知道他们低估了医疗补助开支
250by 20%.以20%计。
251They should look back at all the things they got wrong他们应该回顾一下所有错误
252and explain what they're gonna do并解释他们要做什么
253to get it right in the future and to do a better job.将来要做好它 做一个更好的工作
254And if they do that, we'll take them more seriously.如果他们这样做,我们将更认真地对待他们。
255But right now, I don't think any serious thinker但现在,我不认为 任何严肃的思想家
256could take them seriously可以认真对待他们
257because they've been so wrong for so long.因为他们已经错了这么久。
258If you go back to when President Obama passed Obamacare,如果你回到奥巴马总统通过奥巴马护理时
259they got every single number there wrong他们把每个号码都弄错了
260about how many people would get private insurance关于有多少人会得到私人保险
261and how few people would get Medicaid and so on.以及有多少人会得到医疗补助等等。
262And so their record in this modeling space所以他们在这个模拟空间的记录
263is about as bad as it's possible to be.尽可能的糟糕
264In fact, you could kind of roll the roulette wheel事实上,你可以把轮盘卷起来
265and come up with a better set of numbers提出一个更好的数字
266of a better track record history than CBO.比CBO有更好的历史记录
267Kevin, what about the enhanced subsidies?凯文,增加补贴怎么办?
268Is that number wrong too那个号码是不是也错了
269that the ACA allows about 705 dollarsACA允许约705美元
270for people to help pay for their health insurance?帮助人们支付医疗保险?
271That doesn't sound like the waste, fraud, and abuse这听起来不像是浪费、欺诈和虐待
272that I know you and the president我认识你和总统
273have talked about eliminating.已经谈到消灭。
274That just sounds like people who cannot afford coverage听起来像是买不起保险的人
275and now it's going to be even more so现在情况会更糟
276with these subsidies gone.这些补贴被取消。
277Right, well, if you're looking at the change好吧,如果你看的变化
278in the tax on the providers,在对供养者的税收中,
279which is something that has been a key talking point这是关键话题
280for the Democrats, they say that that's gonna close down对民主党来说,他们说那会关闭
281rural hospitals.农村医院。
282What has happened is that rather than let the states,发生的事情是 而不是让各州,
283the states have this game各州都有这个游戏
284where they give a dollar to a hospital他们给医院一块钱
285and then the federal government matches the dollar然后,联邦政府 匹配美元
286and then the state taxes some of the dollar away.然后州税 部分美元离开。
287In other words, that we have an agreement换句话说,我们有一个协议
288with the states that they're gonna match和他们将要匹配的状态
289but then they have this trick但他们有这个把戏
290where they tax the hospitals after they give them money他们给医院钱后在那里征税
291so really it's the federal government giving them the money其实是联邦政府给他们钱的
292and that's why we've been overspending Medicaid这就是为什么我们一直 超支医疗补助
293by 20% since this trick started happening.自从这个把戏开始以来 20%
294And so what we've done is that we've put a haircut on that所以,我们所做的是,我们已经做了一个发型
295but we've also put $50 billion into a trust fund但我们也投入了500亿元的信托基金
296to make sure that the rural hospitals确保农村医院
297are there to treat the sick.是用来治疗病人的
298And so I think this is approved reform,所以我认为这是批准的改革,
299it's sound budgetary politics这是健全的预算政治
300and I think that nobody's gonna lose their insurance.我认为没有人会失去他们的保险。
301Kevin Hassett, 我们会看着那个年代
302Thank you very much.谢谢
303Really appreciate your time.非常感谢你的时间。
304If I get it wrong, we'll check如果我弄错了,我们会检查
305and we'll talk about why I got it wrong, I promise.我们来谈谈为什么我搞错了 我保证
306Thank you, we'll have you back.谢谢,我们会让你回来的
307Thank you very much, Kevin.非常感谢,凯文
308Thanks.谢谢
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