9个可能在中期选举中翻盘的参议院席位排名 | 2026.7.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | A brand new CNN analysis ranks the nine Senate races most likely to flip and decide control of the upper chamber. | 一个全新的CNN分析将参议院的9个种族最有可能翻转并决定对上院的控制. |
| 0:10 | Six are Republican held. | 六是共和党人持有. |
| 0:12 | Three belong to Democrats. | 三者属于民主党. |
| 0:13 | When a few, the majority is yours. | 少数的时候,多数是你的。 |
| 0:16 | Of course, this is a map that will evolve over the next 124 days. | 当然,这幅地图将在未来124天演变。 |
| 0:21 | I'm joined now by a terrific group of reporters, including Arlette Saenz. | 包括Arlette Saenz在内的一群优秀的记者也加入了我 |
| 0:25 | Arlette 你为CNN.com写了一篇分析文章 | |
| 0:29 | So I'm going to put up on the screen the nine seats, the nine races that we're looking at the closest. | 所以我要把9个座位放在屏幕上, 我们所看到的最接近的9个种族。 |
| 0:36 | And you can see there and here are the rankings. | 你可以看到这里的排名。 |
| 0:39 | You start with number one, North Carolina, which is now a GOP held seat. | 你从头开始,北卡罗莱纳州 现在是一个GOP的席位。 |
展开字幕全文（163 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A brand new CNN analysis ranks the nine Senate races most likely to flip and decide control of the upper chamber. | 一个全新的CNN分析将参议院的9个种族最有可能翻转并决定对上院的控制. |
| 2 | Six are Republican held. | 六是共和党人持有. |
| 3 | Three belong to Democrats. | 三者属于民主党. |
| 4 | When a few, the majority is yours. | 少数的时候,多数是你的。 |
| 5 | Of course, this is a map that will evolve over the next 124 days. | 当然,这幅地图将在未来124天演变。 |
| 6 | I'm joined now by a terrific group of reporters, including Arlette Saenz. | 包括Arlette Saenz在内的一群优秀的记者也加入了我 |
| 7 | Arlette 你为CNN.com写了一篇分析文章 | |
| 8 | So I'm going to put up on the screen the nine seats, the nine races that we're looking at the closest. | 所以我要把9个座位放在屏幕上, 我们所看到的最接近的9个种族。 |
| 9 | And you can see there and here are the rankings. | 你可以看到这里的排名。 |
| 10 | You start with number one, North Carolina, which is now a GOP held seat. | 你从头开始,北卡罗莱纳州 现在是一个GOP的席位。 |
| 11 | That is most likely to be a Democratic pickup. | 这很可能是民主党的货车。 |
| 12 | Maine, we're going to talk about this in a second as number two. | 缅因州,我们马上就要讨论这个了 |
| 13 | And then you go through to Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, all the way out here, Iowa, Georgia, and then Texas is last. | 然后你通过密歇根州,俄亥俄州,阿拉斯加, 一路在这里,爱荷华州,乔治亚州, 然后德克萨斯州是最后一个。 |
| 14 | Oh, I forgot about New Hampshire. | 哦,我忘了新罕布什尔。 |
| 15 | There you go. | 给你。 |
| 16 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 17 | Well, these are the nine states where the battle for control of the Senate will play out. | 这些是9个州 争夺参议院控制权的战斗会在那里展开 |
| 18 | And for the first time, we are ranking them in order of most likely to flips. | 我们第一次按照最有可能翻转的顺序排列它们。 |
| 19 | This is really based on our conversations with various strategists who are involved in the races, pulling a host of other factors. | 这确实是基于我们与参与比赛的各种战略家的对话,拉动了许多其他因素。 |
| 20 | But North Carolina does top that list right now for Democrats is under Republican control. | 但北卡罗来纳州现在名列民主党前列 由共和党控制 |
| 21 | This is a state where a senator has not a Democratic senator has not been elected since 2008. | 这个州自2008年以来就没有民主党参议员当选. |
| 22 | Then moving on with the list, we go up to Maine, then move over, which is also under Republican control. | 然后继续处理名单,我们去缅因州,然后移过去,这也在共和党的控制之下. |
| 23 | Move over, obviously, the Susan Collins, Graham Plattner. | 让开 苏珊·柯林斯 格雷厄姆·普拉特纳 |
| 24 | Then we move over to Michigan, where there is still a very unsettled Democratic primary playing out there. | 然后我们搬去密歇根州 那里还有一场非常不稳定的民主派主场比赛 |
| 25 | If Democrats have any chance of winning back control of the Senate, | 如果民主党人有机会赢得参议院的控制权 |
| 26 | they need to hold on to Michigan because they would still need to flip for Republican held seats. | 他们需要坚持住密歇根 因为他们仍然需要翻转 共和党的席位。 |
| 27 | Then you go into a host of red territory. | 然后进入一大批红色领地。 |
| 28 | All of those states, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, currently held by Republicans. | 所有这些州,俄亥俄州,阿拉斯加州,艾奥瓦州,目前由共和党人持有. |
| 29 | Then further rounding out the list is Georgia, where a presidential battleground state where you do have a very strong Democratic candidate in John Ossoff. | 总统的战场国家 约翰·奥索夫的民主党候选人 |
| 30 | Then you have New Hampshire in Texas. | 然后在德州有新罕布什尔州 |
| 31 | I know we'll get a little bit more into these races, but this is just a snapshot in time. | 我知道我们会得到更多的 更多在这些赛事, 但这只是一个快照 在时间。 |
| 32 | It certainly will adjust over the coming months, but these are the nine states where the battle for the Senate will play out. | 这当然会在未来几个月中进行调整,但这些是参议院的战役将要展开的九个州. |
| 33 | Let's zero in on what you call number one, which is North Carolina. | 我们来点你所说的第一, 北卡罗来纳州。 |
| 34 | This is just the latest Fox News poll. | 这只是最新的福克斯新闻民调. |
| 35 | One of the reasons why Democrats are so bullish and analysts as well is because of, excuse me, this is a New York Times poll, | 民主党人这么粗鲁的原因之一 也是因为,对不起, 这是纽约时报的民调, |
| 36 | of Roy Cooper, who is a popular governor and running to be the state's senator. | 他是一个受欢迎的州长 竞选州参议员 |
| 37 | This has got almost a 5% margin of error, but still, given the fact that, as you said, | 这有近5%的误差, 但鉴于事实,正如你说的, |
| 38 | this hasn't been a Democratic held seat in years, he's got a pretty comfortable margin right now. | 这已经不是民主党的席位了 他现在有相当舒适的优势 |
| 39 | I was about to say, I've been talking to Republican sources this week as well, | 我本打算说 我这周也和共和党人谈过了 |
| 40 | and they're looking at North Carolina as their most endangered seat in terms of those to flip, | 他们把北卡罗来纳州看成是 他们最危险的座位 以那些翻转, |
| 41 | which is interesting because there's been a lot of ink about what's going on in Maine, | 这很有趣 因为缅因州发生了很多事 |
| 42 | obviously bloody primaries elsewhere in both parties. | 很明显是两党的血腥初选 |
| 43 | But North Carolina, first of all, hasn't actually gotten a lot of attention for how important it is | 但是,北卡罗来纳州,首先, 并没有真正得到很多关注 因为它有多重要 |
| 44 | because, first of all, the candidates are both sort of boring and kind of low profile. | 因为,首先,候选人 既有点无聊 也有点低调。 |
| 45 | But you're right, Chuck Schumer got an excellent candidate in Roy Cooper, the former governor, | 但你说得对 查克·舒默在前州长罗伊·库珀 有个出色的候选人 |
| 46 | and I've heard some concerns about Republicans just about the quality of Mike Watley, | 我听到一些关于共和党人的担忧 只是迈克·沃特利的质量, |
| 47 | the Republican candidate who is very allied with Trump. | 与特朗普非常结盟的共和党候选人. |
| 48 | He's seen as President Trump's pick, former chair of the RNC. | 他被视为特朗普总统的人选,曾任RNC主席. |
| 49 | I've heard from concerns from Republicans in the state that while the Trump Association helps, | 我从州内共和党人的担忧中得知,在特朗普协会的帮助下, |
| 50 | he needs an identity that goes beyond Trump, | 他需要一个超越特朗普的身份, |
| 51 | particularly if you want to tell voters to vote for me for senator to be in there for six years | 特别是如果你想告诉选民 投票支持我 参议员在那里呆了六年 |
| 52 | beyond when Trump is out of office. | 超过特朗普卸任时。 |
| 53 | Yeah, and I mean, also anyone who's seen Michael Watley speak or do an event | 是啊,我的意思是,还有任何人 谁看到迈克尔·沃特利 说话或做一个活动 |
| 54 | knows that he's just not a dynamic candidate. | 知道他只是不是一个活跃的候选人。 |
| 55 | He's not out there wooing the crowd. | 他不在那里 吸引人群。 |
| 56 | I mean, there is a reason that Trump waited to weigh in on this primary or on this candidate | 我的意思是,有一个原因 特朗普等待 权衡这个初级或这个候选人 |
| 57 | because he was waiting to see if Laura Trump was going to run. | 因为他等着看劳拉·特朗普是否会逃跑 |
| 58 | He was looking at other candidates. | 他在看其他候选人。 |
| 59 | He likes Michael Watley. | 他喜欢迈克尔·沃特利 |
| 60 | The White House likes Michael Watley, but he doesn't necessarily energize the crowds. | 白宫喜欢迈克尔·沃特利,但他未必能给人群注入活力. |
| 61 | And that's going to be part of the issue as well. | 这也将成为问题的一部分。 |
| 62 | But let's look at a couple. | 但是让我们看看夫妇。 |
| 63 | Well, let's look at one red state, which is actually one of the most interesting, and that is Iowa. | 好吧,让我们来看看一个红色的状态, 这实际上是最有趣的状态之一, 那就是爱荷华州。 |
| 64 | This is retiring Senator Joni Ernst's open seat. | 这是即将退休的参议员乔尼·恩斯特的开放席位。 |
| 65 | So it is a GOP held seat. | 这是GOP的座位 |
| 66 | And we just saw primaries to decide who is going to who's going to be the nominees. | 我们刚刚看到初选 决定谁要成为提名人 |
| 67 | Ashley Hinson is the Republican nominee who is somebody who is Democrats and Republicans | Ashley Hinson是共和党候选人 他是一个民主党和共和党人 |
| 68 | look at her and think that she is a very talented candidate, | 看着她,认为她是一个非常有才华的候选人, |
| 69 | probably one of those who can potentially beat the odds against Donald Trump | 可能其中之一 有可能战胜唐纳德·特朗普 |
| 70 | everywhere and including that state. | 到处都是,包括那个状态 |
| 71 | But right now, again, this is a Fox poll that just came out. | 但现在,这是一次福克斯的民意调查 刚刚出来。 |
| 72 | Josh Turek, who is the Democrat, is leading her. | 身为民主党人的乔什·图雷克正在领导她. |
| 73 | As we said at the beginning, 124 days is like eternity and eternity in politics. | 正如我们一开始所说,124天就像政治中的永恒和永恒。 |
| 74 | But still, the snapshot is interesting. | 但是,快照还是很有趣的。 |
| 75 | This is interesting. | 这很有趣。 |
| 76 | And I think you hit the key point when you said that she has a chance to beat the odds | 我想你达到了关键点 你说她有机会战胜机会 |
| 77 | when it comes to Donald Trump too, right? | 唐纳德·特朗普也是,对吧? |
| 78 | I mean, Ashley Hinson is somebody that has aligned herself with Donald Trump. | 我是说 Ashley Hinson是和唐纳德·特朗普结盟的人 |
| 79 | She does. | 她会的 |
| 80 | A large part of her support comes from MAGA voters as well. | 她的大部分支持也来自MAGA选民. |
| 81 | But this race has a theme that's emblematic more broadly when it comes to the Senate map | 但这场比赛的主题 在参议院的地图上 更具有代表性 |
| 82 | right now, and that's does the frustration and in-time support, | 现在,这是 挫折感和及时支持, |
| 83 | but frustration with Donald Trump, seep down to impact these races? | 但是对唐纳德·特朗普的挫折 却影响着这些种族? |
| 84 | Does the frustration and disapproval with the economy right now seep down and impact these races? | 现在对经济的挫折和不赞同是否渗入和影响这些种族? |
| 85 | This is a great example of that, particularly when you have a candidate | 这是一个很好的例子,特别是当你有一个候选人 |
| 86 | that has really aligned herself with Donald Trump as she goes against somebody | 她和唐纳德·特朗普是一伙的 她和别人是一伙的 |
| 87 | who has proven to be popular in Josh Turek. | 被证明在乔希图雷克很受欢迎 |
| 88 | Let's go back to Georgia. | 让我们回到格鲁吉亚。 |
| 89 | And that is on your ranking, you have it as number seven as the potential to flip. | 这是你排行榜上的第7位 有可能翻转 |
| 90 | It is a Democratic-held seat, two of them actually, in Georgia right now. | 这是一个民主党拥有的席位,实际上有两个席位,现在在格鲁吉亚。 |
| 91 | But this particular race is, of course, Jon Ossoff trying to keep it | 但这场比赛 当然是乔恩·奥索夫试图保持 |
| 92 | and prevent it from going from D to R. | 防止从D到R |
| 93 | And look at this. | 看看这个 |
| 94 | I mean, this is a senator who got in, you know, | 我的意思是,这是一个参议员 谁得到了,你知道, |
| 95 | barely by the skin of his teeth in runoffs in a very dramatic way in 2020. | 在2020年他牙齿的皮肤 以非常戏剧化的方式奔跑 |
| 96 | And so far, it's not even close in the polling. | 而至今,在民意测验中甚至还没有接近. |
| 97 | I mean, Jon Ossoff is doing much better than Mike Collins. | 乔恩·奥索夫比迈克·柯林斯好得多 |
| 98 | Now, there was just somewhat recently a primary where Mike Collins | 麦克柯林斯的初学者 |
| 99 | had to fight fellow Republicans to get this, but still. | 但还是得和共和党人战斗才能得到这个 |
| 100 | Yeah, I mean, this has the potential to narrow, but 13 points is a pretty wide margin. | 是啊,我的意思是,这有 缩小的潜力, 但13点是一个相当宽的差幅。 |
| 101 | And Senator Jon Ossoff has really, Democrats have felt, has been a very strong candidate. | 而参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)真的,民主党人觉得,一直是一位非常强大的候选人. |
| 102 | He's an incredibly strong fundraiser. | 他是一个令人难以置信的强力筹款者。 |
| 103 | He has this way of making these speeches that they can clip moments that then go viral. | 他有这样的方式 发表这些演讲, 他们可以剪辑的瞬间,然后发生病毒。 |
| 104 | Of course, there's a lot of buzz about him, about whether if he survives the Senate race, | 当然,很多关于他, 如果他是否在参议院的种族生存下来, |
| 105 | could he have his eye on the White House in 2028? | 2028年他能不能盯着白宫? |
| 106 | But Republicans for several months, even before the primary had been settled, | 但共和党人几个月了 甚至在小学毕业之前 |
| 107 | had been expressing some anxiety around the Georgia Senate race. | 一直对佐治亚州参议院的比赛表示焦虑 |
| 108 | They had really hoped that the state's governor, Brian Kemp, would get into this race. | 他们真的希望州州长布莱恩·肯普能参加这场比赛. |
| 109 | He's very popular. | 他很受欢迎 |
| 110 | He did not decide to run. | 他没有决定参选。 |
| 111 | And then he backed a candidate who he could not get over the finish line. | 然后他支持了一个他无法越过终点线的候选人. |
| 112 | And so there's a lot of different dynamics at play here in Georgia, but it's one of those states. | 所以在乔治亚州有很多不同的动态, 但是它是其中的一个州。 |
| 113 | It's a consequential battleground for president every single year. | 这是每年总统的战场 |
| 114 | And right now, Jon Ossoff does appear to be in a good position as he seeks reelection. | 而现在,乔恩·奥索夫似乎在寻求连任时处于一个很好的地位. |
| 115 | Well, and there's also a lot of Republicans who are concerned that Collins hasn't been vetted properly | 还有不少共和党人担心柯林斯没有经过适当的审查 |
| 116 | and that there might be some skeletons there. | 可能还有骨架 |
| 117 | Yes, Mike Collins. | 是的,迈克柯林斯。 |
| 118 | That there might be something there because they are concerned that he's not really had a big public race. | 他们担心他没有参加大赛 |
| 119 | And they want to make sure that they have the strongest candidate. | 他们想要确保自己有最强的候选人 |
| 120 | He's very new to the scene. | 他是新来的 |
| 121 | And, you know, if we look at the way President Trump handled this, | 如果我们看看特朗普总统处理此事的方式 |
| 122 | he didn't endorse until he knew that Mike Collins was going to win looking at both of these candidates. | 直到他知道迈克·柯林斯会赢得这两个候选人的提名 |
| 123 | So, you know, Republicans still are a little skittish. | 所以,你知道,共和党人 还是有点滑稽。 |
| 124 | Was he the best? | 他是最棒的吗? |
| 125 | Was he the strongest candidate to put out there? | 他是最强的候选人吗? |
| 126 | And we'll find out. | 我们会发现的 |
| 127 | Let's go back to your rankings and let's look at number three on the list. | 让我们回到你的排名, 让我们看看排行榜的第三位。 |
| 128 | This is Michigan. | 这是密歇根州 |
| 129 | It's a Democratic-held seat. | 民主执持之座. |
| 130 | Again, it's open because Senator Gary Peters is retiring. | 再说一遍,因为参议员加里·彼得斯要退休了 |
| 131 | And this is one of those, as you said, that is very, very competitive on the Democratic side. | 这是其中之一,正如你说的, 这是非常,非常有竞争力的民主党方面。 |
| 132 | The primary is not going to happen until later this summer. | 小学要到今年夏天才开始。 |
| 133 | We did have some news this morning, which is that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 我们今早确实有消息说 亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特斯 |
| 134 | formally endorsed one of the Democratic candidates, Abdul El-Sayed, in this critical Michigan Senate race. | 在这次关键的密歇根州参议院比赛中,正式认可了民主党候选人之一阿卜杜勒·赛义德. |
| 135 | And so, you know, one of the questions is whether or not he will win | 所以,你知道,一个问题 是他是否会赢 |
| 136 | and how that will sort of play out considering that he is further to the left than the other Democrats running | 考虑到他比其他民主党人跑得更左 |
| 137 | and how that will play in a purple state when he's going to be running against former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. | 当他和前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯竞选时 他会如何在紫色状态下运作 |
| 138 | Yeah, there's a couple themes here, right? | 是啊,这里有几个主题,对不对? |
| 139 | I mean, and it does expose sort of the factions in the Democratic Party. | 我的意思是,它确实暴露了 某种民主党的派别。 |
| 140 | It does raise a challenge of the person who might be popular when it comes to a primary. | 它的确对在初级阶段可能受欢迎的人提出了挑战。 |
| 141 | How do you then take some of those views and translate it to a general? | 那你怎么把这些观点 翻译成将军? |
| 142 | And we know it can be there can be a bridge there, right? | 我们知道它可能在那里有一座桥,对吧? |
| 143 | It can be a gap. | 可能是一个缺口。 |
| 144 | It can be different. | 亦能分别. |
| 145 | The AOC endorsement is also interesting just from when you look at her in isolation | AOC的认可也很有趣 从你单独看着她开始 |
| 146 | because she's actually been hesitant to really get out there and endorse some of even the progressive candidates that we've seen, | 因为实际上她一直犹豫不决 不愿真正出去 并认可一些进步的候选人 我们见过, |
| 147 | even though we're coming off a week where we've seen a lot of wins coming from the progressive flank. | 尽管一周后我们就要出发了 我们从进步的侧翼看到了很多胜利 |
| 148 | You do wonder if sort of that momentum after New York as well as Colorado provided an incentive to sort of get in there | 你确实想知道纽约和科罗拉多之后的这种势头 是否刺激了我们进入那里 |
| 149 | and actually come with this endorsement. | 并得到了这个认可。 |
| 150 | Let's just look at the current balance of power. | 让我们看看目前的实力平衡。 |
| 151 | So we have proper context of what needs to happen in order for Democrats to flip. | 因此,我们有适当的背景 需要发生什么 以便民主党人翻转。 |
| 152 | It's a it's a hill. | 谓其山曰. |
| 153 | It's a pretty steep hill, Arlette. | 这是一个相当陡峭的山,阿莱特。 |
| 154 | Yeah, it is. | 是的,这是。 |
| 155 | Democrats with the current makeup, they would need to hold on to all of their seats | 拥有现今化妆的民主党人,需要坚守所有席位. |
| 156 | and flip for if they were to regain control of the Senate. | 如果他们要重新控制元老院 |
| 157 | But so much of this battle is going to play out in these states that have been red and trending even more red in recent years. | 但是,这场战役中,这么多将会在这些近年来一直红的州里展开,并且呈现出更红的趋势. |
| 158 | The question is whether those dynamics might be changing with this election, especially as there is frustration with President Trump and the economy. | 问题在于这些动态是否会随着这次选举而改变,特别是因为对特朗普总统和经济产生了挫折感. |
| 159 | You know, Republicans have been long hoping that there would be some type of resolution to the conflict with Iran, | 共和党人一直希望 能够解决与伊朗的冲突 |
| 160 | that that could potentially ease some of the economic concerns. | 这有可能缓解一些经济关切。 |
| 161 | But right now, given all the volatility we've seen, there's really no guarantee that that's going to happen. | 但是,现在,鉴于我们所看到的所有波动性, 实在无法保证这会发生。 |
| 162 | Thanks for bringing us this great analysis and reporting. | 谢谢你给我们带来了这个伟大的分析和报告。 |
| 163 | Appreciate it. | 谢谢 |
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