法里德观点：美国从自由贸易变成裙带资本主义 | 2025.4
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | But first, here's my take. | 但首先,这是我的主意。 |
| 0:05 | It was the flip-flop hailed around the world. | 全世界都在欢呼 |
| 0:08 | After insisting that he would not budge on his tariffs and branding anyone who urged | 他坚持自己不会降低关税 并给任何催促者打上烙印 |
| 0:13 | him to do so as a panic can, a new party based on weak and stupid people, Donald Trump reversed | 唐纳德·特朗普倒转了 |
| 0:21 | course and paused his massive reciprocal tariffs for 90 days except on China while he negotiates | 并暂停了90天的大规模对等关税, 除了对中国,他的谈判 |
| 0:27 | deals with foreign countries. | 与外国进行交易。 |
| 0:30 | But size of relief may be premature. | 但解脱的规模可能还不成熟。 |
| 0:33 | For one, America's tariffs are still at a 100 plus year high by one measure according | 首先,美国的关税仍以100年加一年的高税率计算 |
| 0:39 | to the Yale Budget Lab, which will cost Americans dearly. | 到耶鲁预算实验室, 将付出高昂的代价美国人。 |
| 0:43 | Even more importantly, these tariff negotiations will inevitably result in an orgy of corruption. | 更重要的是,这些关税谈判将不可避免地导致腐败的狂欢。 |
展开字幕全文（74 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | But first, here's my take. | 但首先,这是我的主意。 |
| 2 | It was the flip-flop hailed around the world. | 全世界都在欢呼 |
| 3 | After insisting that he would not budge on his tariffs and branding anyone who urged | 他坚持自己不会降低关税 并给任何催促者打上烙印 |
| 4 | him to do so as a panic can, a new party based on weak and stupid people, Donald Trump reversed | 唐纳德·特朗普倒转了 |
| 5 | course and paused his massive reciprocal tariffs for 90 days except on China while he negotiates | 并暂停了90天的大规模对等关税, 除了对中国,他的谈判 |
| 6 | deals with foreign countries. | 与外国进行交易。 |
| 7 | But size of relief may be premature. | 但解脱的规模可能还不成熟。 |
| 8 | For one, America's tariffs are still at a 100 plus year high by one measure according | 首先,美国的关税仍以100年加一年的高税率计算 |
| 9 | to the Yale Budget Lab, which will cost Americans dearly. | 到耶鲁预算实验室, 将付出高昂的代价美国人。 |
| 10 | Even more importantly, these tariff negotiations will inevitably result in an orgy of corruption. | 更重要的是,这些关税谈判将不可避免地导致腐败的狂欢。 |
| 11 | The American economy is being transformed from the leading free market in the world | 美国经济正在从世界领先的自由市场转型 |
| 12 | to the leading example of crony capitalism. | 成为裙带资本主义的主要例子 |
| 13 | A market economy functions best when there are limited constraints placed on it, but | 市场经济在有限限制的情况下发挥最大作用,但 |
| 14 | especially when these constraints are clear, fair and applicable to all. | 特别是当这些限制是明确、公平和适用于所有人时。 |
| 15 | The more complicated the taxes, rules and regulations, the greater the inefficiency | 税收、规则和条例越复杂,效率就越低 |
| 16 | in country after country from India to Nigeria to Morocco. | 从印度到尼日利亚到摩洛哥 |
| 17 | But more significant, the greater the complexity, the greater the corruption. | 但更重要的是,越复杂,腐败越严重。 |
| 18 | With tariffs come tariff waivers, often granted by the hundreds to specific industries, companies, | 随着关税的到来,关税的免除, 通常由数百人给予特定的行业,公司, |
| 19 | even products. | 甚至产品。 |
| 20 | In 2018 and 2019, the Trump administration announced an assortment of tariffs including | 2018年和2019年,特朗普政府宣布了包括关税在内的各种关税. |
| 21 | 25% on steel and also a program of waivers. | 25%在钢铁上 还有一个豁免计划 |
| 22 | They got around 500,000 applications. | 他们有大约50万份申请。 |
| 23 | This week, when asked how he would determine these exemptions, Trump replied, | 当被问及他如何决定这些豁免时,特朗普回答说, |
| 24 | Instinctively. | 执着性. |
| 25 | Studies show that politicians' instincts usually favor their contributors, which then | 研究显示,政治家的本能通常有利于他们的贡献者,然后, |
| 26 | encourages pervasive corruption. | 助长普遍的腐败。 |
| 27 | It was true with tariffs for much of American history until FDR changed the system. | 美国历史上大部分时间的关税都是如此,直到FDR改变制度. |
| 28 | And over time, in Paul Krugman's words, tariff policy went from being famously dirty | 随着时间的推移,用保罗·克鲁格曼的话来说,关税政策 从著名的肮脏 |
| 29 | to remarkably clean. | 非常干净。 |
| 30 | It's getting dirtier fast. | 越来越脏了 |
| 31 | We already have the evidence from Trump's first term. | 我们已经有了特朗普第一个任期的证据. |
| 32 | A detailed academic study of the tariffs in Trump's first term found that companies | 特朗普第一任期关税的详细学术研究发现,公司 |
| 33 | that made substantial investments in political connections to Republicans prior to and during | 在与共和党人的政治联系方面进行大量投资 |
| 34 | the beginning of the Trump administration were more likely to secure exemptions for | 特朗普政府成立之初, |
| 35 | products otherwise subject to tariffs. | 在其他方面须缴纳关税的产品。 |
| 36 | Conversely, companies that made contributions to Democratic politicians had decreased odds | 反之,向民主政客捐款的公司减少了机会。 |
| 37 | of tariff exemption approval. | 关税豁免批准。 |
| 38 | That study looked at more than 7,000 applications for exemptions from tariffs on China in the | 该研究研究了7 000多份关于免除中国关税的申请。 |
| 39 | first term and found that just a $4,000 donation to the Democratic Party reduced the company's | 发现只有4000美元捐赠给民主党 减少了公司 |
| 40 | chances of being granted an exemption to less than one in ten. | 10分之一以下的豁免机会。 |
| 41 | As Timothy Carney from the conservative think tank AEI notes, Trump's first election created | 正如保守派智库AEI的蒂莫西·卡尼(Timothy Carney)指出,特朗普的第一次选举创造了 |
| 42 | a trade lobbying boom from 921 entities who hired lobbyists to work on trade to a peak | 来自921个实体的贸易游说热潮,这些实体雇用游说者从事贸易工作,达到顶峰。 |
| 43 | of 1,419 by 2019. | 到2019年达到1,419人. |
| 44 | With the highest tariffs in the industrialized world, the American bazaar is now open. | 由于工业化世界关税最高,美国集市现在开放. |
| 45 | Countries and companies will descend on Washington to cut deals and gain carve-outs, | 国家和公司会下到华盛顿 削减交易和获得例外, |
| 46 | exemptions and special terms. | 豁免和特别条款。 |
| 47 | In the last four weeks, Vietnam has announced a flurry of measures designed to mollify the | 在过去四个星期里,越南宣布了一系列措施,旨在将石油化为稀土。 |
| 48 | Trump administration and get a good trade deal. | 特朗普政府并获得一个良好的贸易交易. |
| 49 | Among them, approval for Elon Musk's Starlink to operate in the country and a plan to expedite a | 其中,批准埃隆·穆斯克的"星际链接"在国内运行,并计划加速一个 |
| 50 | Trump organization project. | 特朗普组织项目. |
| 51 | In fact, there are at least 19 Trump-branded real estate projects around the world that will | 事实上,全世界至少有19个特朗普品牌的房地产项目 |
| 52 | be under development while he is president and possibly many others in the works. | 正在开发中 而他担任总裁 可能还有许多其他作品。 |
| 53 | President Trump has launched his own social media company and his own meme coin. | 特朗普总统推出了自己的社交媒体公司和自己的meme硬币. |
| 54 | Other countries surely see this all as an invitation to invest and to influence | 其他国家肯定把这一切都看作是 投资和影响 |
| 55 | American foreign and economic policy. | 美国外交和经济政策. |
| 56 | It has been deeply dispiriting to watch some of America's legendary capitalists, | 看着一些美国传奇的资本家, |
| 57 | canonical figures from Wall Street, endorse a deal-making process by which the American | 华尔街的著名人物们 赞同美国 |
| 58 | free market is going to be pockmarked with tariffs, taxes, rules, exemptions and carve-outs. | 自由市场将面临关税、税收、规则、豁免和例外。 |
| 59 | It's worth recalling that Milton Friedman repeatedly noted about businessmen. | 值得回顾的是,米尔顿·弗里德曼一再提到商人. |
| 60 | You can get any leading businessman to give you an eloquent speech on the virtues of a free market. | 你可以让任何著名商人 给您一个雄辩的演讲 关于自由市场的优点。 |
| 61 | But when it comes to their own business, they want to go down to Washington and get a special | 但是,当涉及到他们自己的业务, 他们想下去华盛顿 并得到一个特别的 |
| 62 | tariff to protect their business. | 保护企业的关税。 |
| 63 | They want a special tax deduction. | 他们想减税 |
| 64 | They want a tax subsidy. | 他们想要税收补贴。 |
| 65 | The India I grew up in was a country riddled with tariffs, high barriers designed to protect | 我成长的印度是一个充满关税、高壁垒的国家, |
| 66 | the country's domestic industry and shielded from what was regarded as unfair foreign competition. | 国家的国内产业,并避免被视为不公平的外国竞争。 |
| 67 | It produced stagnation, poverty and lots of corruption, thoroughly politicizing the economy. | 它造成停滞、贫穷和许多腐败,使经济彻底政治化。 |
| 68 | No business of any size in India could survive without a good relationship with the government. | 在印度,没有与政府的良好关系,任何规模的企业都无法生存。 |
| 69 | When I got to America, I was delighted to see that most businessmen went about their | 当我到了美国,我很高兴 看到大多数商人去 |
| 70 | work with little care as to who was in the White House. | 对白宫里的人 毫不留情地工作 |
| 71 | But now I watch tech pioneers give interviews slavishly extolling Donald Trump's genius | 但现在我看着科技先驱们 光顾唐纳德·特朗普的天才 |
| 72 | and Wall Street titans race to post North Korea-style congratulations to the President | 华尔街的巨人竞技 后朝鲜式祝贺总统 |
| 73 | for his brilliance in rescuing the economy from his own actions. | 他的聪明才智 拯救了经济 从自己的行动。 |
| 74 | And I wonder, what country am I living in? | 我想知道,我住在哪个国家? |
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