彭博社：世界能否通过霍尔木兹海峡？ | 2026.7.17
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | Sometimes it's best to expect the unexpected. | 有时候最好能预料到意外 |
| 0:06 | When the Straits of Homer first closed, everyone was in a panic | 当霍默海峡刚关闭时,大家都在恐慌之中 |
| 0:11 | and it was the biggest crisis that many of us have seen in this generation. | 这是我们这一代人所看到的最大的危机。 |
| 0:15 | There are thousands of vessels that are stuck. | 有成千上万的船被卡住了。 |
| 0:18 | Ships are still getting attacked. | 舰船仍然遭到攻击。 |
| 0:19 | They said they control the strait, they do not. | 他们说他们控制了海峡,他们没有。 |
| 0:22 | We heard from the International Energy Agency | 我们听到国际能源机构的消息 |
| 0:24 | that this is the biggest oil supply crisis ever seen. | 这是有史以来最大的石油供应危机。 |
| 0:26 | It is in the world's largest oil producing region. | 它是世界上最大的石油产区。 |
| 0:31 | The Straits of Homer is responsible for 20 to 25% of the world's oil | 霍默海峡占世界石油的20%到25% |
展开字幕全文（148 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sometimes it's best to expect the unexpected. | 有时候最好能预料到意外 |
| 2 | When the Straits of Homer first closed, everyone was in a panic | 当霍默海峡刚关闭时,大家都在恐慌之中 |
| 3 | and it was the biggest crisis that many of us have seen in this generation. | 这是我们这一代人所看到的最大的危机。 |
| 4 | There are thousands of vessels that are stuck. | 有成千上万的船被卡住了。 |
| 5 | Ships are still getting attacked. | 舰船仍然遭到攻击。 |
| 6 | They said they control the strait, they do not. | 他们说他们控制了海峡,他们没有。 |
| 7 | We heard from the International Energy Agency | 我们听到国际能源机构的消息 |
| 8 | that this is the biggest oil supply crisis ever seen. | 这是有史以来最大的石油供应危机。 |
| 9 | It is in the world's largest oil producing region. | 它是世界上最大的石油产区。 |
| 10 | The Straits of Homer is responsible for 20 to 25% of the world's oil | 霍默海峡占世界石油的20%到25% |
| 11 | as well as gas, seaborne trade. | 还有天然气、海运贸易 |
| 12 | So we're talking about 20 million barrels per day. | 所以我们说每天有两千万桶。 |
| 13 | It also meant that a lot of food supplies, fertilizers | 这也意味着很多食物供应,肥料 |
| 14 | and other essential commodities were stuck. | 和其他基本商品被困。 |
| 15 | Ever since the Iranian Revolution in the 70s, | 自从70年代伊朗革命以来 |
| 16 | the idea that Hormuz has been important has been known. | 荷尔穆兹很重要的想法已经众所周知。 |
| 17 | But it's always been a back burner issue. | 但它一直是一个背部燃烧器的问题。 |
| 18 | Oil prices and shortages were expected to soar. | 石油价格和短缺预计将猛增。 |
| 19 | There is worry in the market that there is no end in sight. | 市场里担心看不到终点。 |
| 20 | That knock-on effect really is being felt. | 敲门效果真的被感觉到了 |
| 21 | People were really wondering how the world would cope with such a disruption. | 人们真的想知道世界将如何应对这种混乱。 |
| 22 | Many of the banks were talking $150 a barrel, $200 a barrel. | 许多银行说每桶150美元,每桶200美元。 |
| 23 | But then it didn't happen. | 但后来没有发生. |
| 24 | Markets barely blinked at some of the challenging headlines coming from the Middle East. | 中东一些充满挑战的头条新闻, |
| 25 | The market has been pretty resilient. | 市场已经相当有弹性。 |
| 26 | Although we did see prices top $126 a barrel, | 尽管我们确实看到价格最高 每桶126美元, |
| 27 | many of those worst fears were never materialized. | 这些最可怕的恐惧中有许多从未实现。 |
| 28 | We saw the market adjust to the crisis in somewhat surprising ways. | 我们看到市场以一些令人惊讶的方式适应危机。 |
| 29 | Price response actually shows how resilient markets can be. | 价格反应实际上表明,市场能够具有多大的弹性。 |
| 30 | So how was the biggest energy crisis in a generation so easily swallowed? | 那么,一代人最大的能源危机是如何如此容易吞噬的呢? |
| 31 | And does this ability to cope mean the world has reached peak Hormuz? | 这种应付能力是否意味着世界已经达到了赫尔穆兹的顶峰? |
| 32 | As a shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz is a tight fit. | 作为航运路线,霍尔木兹海峡是一个紧凑的航线. |
| 33 | The word straight comes from the Latin strictus, as in drawn tight, almost constricted, | 直线词来自拉丁语的严格词, 如在拉紧,几乎收缩, |
| 34 | which feels especially suitable here. | 特别适合这里 |
| 35 | At its narrowest point, it's just 21 miles wide, | 在最窄处 它只有21英里宽 |
| 36 | which is barely two Manhattans' worth of width. | 距离曼哈顿只有两条宽度 |
| 37 | Prior to the war, we were looking at around 120 to 130 commercial ship movements daily. | 在战争前,我们每天看到大约120至130艘商业船只的移动。 |
| 38 | 50% or so would be oil and gas vessels. | 50%左右是石油和天然气船。 |
| 39 | You'll remember a few years ago, we had the ever-given blockage through the Suez Canal, | 你会记得几年前 我们在苏伊士运河上遇到过 前所未有的阻塞 |
| 40 | which also hit pretty much every commodity market. | 几乎每个商品市场都受到冲击。 |
| 41 | But the difference there is you can sail the long way around Africa. | 但不同的是,你可以远航非洲。 |
| 42 | Hormuz is a true choke point. | Hormuz是一个真正的窒息点。 |
| 43 | The President's saying the Strait is completely open. | 总统说海峡是完全开放的 |
| 44 | Is it in fact on this Saturday morning? | 其实是在星期六早上吗? |
| 45 | The information is quite fluid at the present. | 目前的信息相当流畅. |
| 46 | Mixed messages, this is the theme of 2026. | 混合信息,这是2026年的主题. |
| 47 | The stop-and-start nature of the war makes navigating the strait even more complicated. | 战争的停止和发动性质使得海峡的航行变得更加复杂. |
| 48 | Logistical dangers and risks remain elevated. | 后勤危险和风险仍然很高。 |
| 49 | One of the first reasons ship owners were cautious about sailing through Hormuz, | 船主们对通过霍尔穆兹的航行持谨慎态度, |
| 50 | even after the interim peace deal, was the presence of mines. | 即使在临时和平协议之后,地雷的存在也是存在的。 |
| 51 | We are talking about really big oil tankers carrying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of oil. | 我们正在谈论真正的大型油轮 运载价值数亿美元的石油。 |
| 52 | So ship owners and owners of these cargoes were very reluctant to expose their vessels to such risk. | 因此,这些货物的船东和船东非常不愿意让自己的船只面临这种风险. |
| 53 | It's one story getting ships out of Hormuz, it's another one getting them back in. | 一个故事让飞船离开霍尔木兹 另一个故事让飞船回来 |
| 54 | Many owners will be keen to get their vessels and their crews out of harm's way. | 许多船主将热衷于让自己的船只和船员摆脱危险. |
| 55 | They might think twice about making this decision to send ships back in. | 他们可能考虑过两次 决定派船回去 |
| 56 | How much traffic returns to the strait will affect the future of energy and therefore the global economy. | 海峡的交通恢复将影响能源的未来,从而影响全球经济。 |
| 57 | And by taking a look at some of the key factors that prevented the full-blown crisis, | 通过观察一些关键因素 防止了全面危机, |
| 58 | we can find clues as to how this could play out. | 我们可以找到线索 如何做到这一点。 |
| 59 | The first factor and perhaps the most subtly obvious is that the world was already flush with oil. | 第一个因素,也许最明显的是,世界已经被石油冲走了。 |
| 60 | Roughly 20 million barrels a day were prevented from reaching the market. | 每天约有2 000万桶无法进入市场。 |
| 61 | Existing surplus, strategic national reserves and commercial inventory offset 9 million of that. | 现有的盈余、国家战略储备和商业库存抵消了其中的900万美元。 |
| 62 | There was a huge release of global stockpiles. | 全球库存大量释放。 |
| 63 | It was coordinated by the IEA and this added a lot of immediate supplies of oil, | 由国际能源机构协调,这增加了大量即时石油供应, |
| 64 | something like 400 million barrels of oil that came into the market at short notice from storage tanks all over the world. | 大约4亿桶石油 在短时间内从世界各地的储油罐运入市场 |
| 65 | It was this one-time release that really helped as kind of like a blow-off valve. | 正是这个一次性的释放, 真正帮助了 像一种吹动阀门。 |
| 66 | The US released pretty significant volumes from its strategic reserves. | 美国从其战略储备中释放了相当可观的数量。 |
| 67 | Millions of barrels a day of extra oil gushing out of the US to global markets in order to dampen the price impact, particularly in the West. | 每天有数百万桶石油从美国流入全球市场,以抑制价格影响,特别是在西方。 |
| 68 | US exports during this time reached a record. | 在此期间,美国的出口创下了记录。 |
| 69 | In Europe and in the US, we had the extra disposable income to pay up for marginal barrels where that needed to happen. | 在欧洲和美国,我们拥有额外的可支配收入来支付需要支付的边际桶。 |
| 70 | And that meant that in relative terms, the West has been cushioned from the spike compared to some of the poorer nations, | 这意味着,相对而言,与一些较贫穷的国家相比,西方已经摆脱了这种激增。 |
| 71 | particularly Asian nations that were heavily reliant on Hormuz for their crude flows in the first place. | 特别是首先严重依赖霍尔木兹的粗流的亚洲国家。 |
| 72 | Asia in particular doesn't have big oil fields. | 特别是亚洲没有大油田。 |
| 73 | Asia has been more and more reliant on the Middle East and also on places like Russia. | 亚洲越来越依赖中东和俄罗斯等地方。 |
| 74 | The crisis highlighted that you can't have a major supply shock in the Middle East and also not have Russian oil. | 危机凸显出你不能在中东遭受重大供应冲击,也不能拥有俄罗斯石油. |
| 75 | Another cushion was that oil coming from the Middle East never fully stopped flowing. | 另一个缓冲因素是来自中东的石油从未完全停止流动。 |
| 76 | Bypass pipelines made up for another six million barrels. | 还有600万桶的旁通管道 |
| 77 | Just have oil pipelines, gas pipelines going West. | 只要有输油管道,天然气管道 向西。 |
| 78 | Saudi Arabia was able to basically pipe oil all the way across the country. | 沙特阿拉伯基本上能够在全国各地管道石油。 |
| 79 | This had not been tested. | 这没有经过测试。 |
| 80 | It worked and really was a key factor to helping avoid the worst case scenario in terms of the oil market. | 这对于帮助避免石油市场出现最坏的情况来说是行之有效的,而且实际上也是一个关键因素。 |
| 81 | Same thing with UAE. | 阿联酋也一样 |
| 82 | It can currently do about one and a half million barrels per day. | 目前每天可生产约150万桶。 |
| 83 | By the end of 2027, they're going to have that up to three million barrels per day. | 到2027年底,他们每天的产量将达到300万桶. |
| 84 | The piped oil lent two ports greater importance. | 管道石油使两个港口更加重要。 |
| 85 | Fujairah used by the Emirates and the Saudi port of Yembu on the Red Sea. | 由阿联酋和红海上的沙特港口延布使用. |
| 86 | The upshot is in aggregate. | 高潮是总体的。 |
| 87 | If all the pipeline workarounds work at their maximum, you won't necessarily need as many ships to go through Hormuz in the long term. | 如果所有输油管工作都以最大速度运作,那么从长远来看,你不一定需要那么多的船来穿过霍尔木兹. |
| 88 | And in the even longer term, you're potentially seeing more pipelines being built to avoid Hormuz in general. | 从更长远的角度看,你可能会看到 更多的管道正在建造中 来避开整个霍尔木兹。 |
| 89 | Perhaps the most unexpected force mitigating the crisis has been the actions of one country, China. | 也许缓解危机的最出乎意料的力量是一个国家中国的行动。 |
| 90 | The biggest reason oil prices haven't spiked in the way people thought is really China. | 最大的原因就是 油价没有飙升 人们认为真正的中国。 |
| 91 | China has cut its oil imports in a way that many people thought wasn't possible | 中国削减了石油进口 很多人认为不可能 |
| 92 | or certainly wouldn't have predicted at the outset of the war. | 或肯定不会在战争开始时预言。 |
| 93 | We're talking four or five million barrels a day of reduced crude imports to the lowest level in about eight years. | 我们说的是每天有四、五百万桶原油进口量 减少到八年来的最低水平 |
| 94 | That is a massive leveler for the global oil market. | 这对于全球石油市场来说是一个巨大的层面。 |
| 95 | This pullback can be attributed to a pause in strategic stockpiling. | 这种退缩可归因于暂停战略储存。 |
| 96 | This reduction in demand is really significant as a number | 从数量上看,这种需求减少确实很大。 |
| 97 | because it is more than the consumption of what Japan, for example, would import on a given day. | 因为比起日本在特定日子里进口的东西, |
| 98 | In some sense, China did the world a favour. | 从某种意义上说,中国为世界做了一件好事。 |
| 99 | If they had been competing for barrels on the marketplace, | 如果他们在市场上竞争桶 |
| 100 | quite potentially it could have seen more price impact during the closure. | 它很可能在关闭期间看到更大的价格影响。 |
| 101 | The measures China and other countries took to achieve roughly three million barrels in demand destruction are varied. | 中国和其他国家为实现约300万桶需求销毁而采取的措施各不相同。 |
| 102 | Added up, these were the major factors preventing the crisis. | 此外,这些都是防止危机的主要因素。 |
| 103 | But China's agility also comes from strategic investments towards electrification. | 但中国的敏捷性也来自于对电气化的战略投资. |
| 104 | China is a leading market for electric vehicles. | 中国是电动汽车的领先市场. |
| 105 | It's not like they had a whole bunch of electric vehicles sitting in parking lots | 他们又不是有一堆电动车 坐在停车场里 |
| 106 | and suddenly this crisis came on and everyone switched to EVs. | 突然间危机爆发 所有人都转投EVs |
| 107 | They've been rapidly adopting EVs in their economy. | 他们在经济中迅速采用EV. |
| 108 | More on this in a moment. | 稍后再谈这个 |
| 109 | There's more under China's economic hood. | 中国经济罩下还有更多. |
| 110 | Something like 90% of the world's solar equipment comes from China. | 世界上90%的太阳能设备来自中国。 |
| 111 | In the first few months following the conflict, | 在冲突结束后的头几个月里, |
| 112 | we've seen solar exports from China ramp up quite quickly. | 我们看到中国的太阳能出口迅速增长。 |
| 113 | You can see that surge here, with other Asian countries, Europe and Africa leading the way. | 你可以在这里看到这种激增, 由其他亚洲国家,欧洲和非洲领头。 |
| 114 | Although exports to other regions seem small, when viewing the world average, | 虽然对其他区域的出口似乎不多,但从世界平均水平来看, |
| 115 | the wartime spike is significant. | 战时的猛烈打击很大 |
| 116 | However, for those optimistic problems with the strait could usher in the age of renewables, | 然而,由于海峡的这些乐观问题可能迎来可再生能源时代, |
| 117 | realities on the ground indicate otherwise. | 实地的实际情况表明,情况并非如此。 |
| 118 | Solar and oil don't really compete with each other | 太阳能和石油不会互相竞争 |
| 119 | because very little oil is used in the power sector. | 因为电力部门很少使用石油。 |
| 120 | This combination of energy sources is what keeps the lights on, | 能量来源的结合 使灯光保持, |
| 121 | both literally and figuratively, and it's dominated by coal and natural gas. | 从字面上和比喻上来说, 煤和天然气都占据主导地位。 |
| 122 | The innovation of liquefied natural gas is lending this resource increased importance. | 液化天然气的创新使这一资源变得更加重要。 |
| 123 | The LNG market is highly concentrated, with the US, Qatar, Australia and Russia | LNG市场高度集中,包括美国,卡塔尔,澳大利亚和俄罗斯. |
| 124 | making up 70% of the global supply. | 占全球供应量的70%。 |
| 125 | The US recently became the world's largest LNG exporter. | 美国最近成为世界上最大的LNG出口国. |
| 126 | Right there, neck and neck with it, is Qatar. | 就在那里,颈部和颈部,是卡塔尔。 |
| 127 | Some of their facilities were actually damaged in the conflict. | 他们的一些设施实际上在冲突中受损。 |
| 128 | Qatar has announced plans to expand natural gas infrastructure, | 卡塔尔宣布计划扩大天然气基础设施, |
| 129 | which could lead to them regaining the title of biggest LNG supplier. | 这可能导致他们重新获得最大的LNG供应商的称号. |
| 130 | All of that will take time. | 所有这一切都需要时间。 |
| 131 | But it's another indication that the Strait of Hormuz will remain a critical pathway, | 但这又表明 霍尔木兹海峡仍将是一条关键的道路 |
| 132 | even if fees become part of the equation. | 即使费用成为了公式的一部分。 |
| 133 | Some vessels have been charged up to $2 million just to make it through. | 有些船只被收取高达200万美元,只为了渡过难关。 |
| 134 | The Strait of Hormuz has to be opened, their freedom of navigation has to be respected. | 霍尔木兹海峡必须开放,他们的航行自由必须得到尊重. |
| 135 | The key question in the medium to long term is what the policing of Hormuz looks like. | 中长期的关键问题是霍尔木兹的治安情况。 |
| 136 | Will we have tolling arrangement? | 我们是否有收费安排? |
| 137 | There's an argument to be made that Iran's control over Hormuz might not be the same as it was. | 有观点认为,伊朗对霍尔木兹的控制可能与原来不同. |
| 138 | But its ability to shut Hormuz at a moment's notice will now never be forgotten. | 但是它一接到通知就关闭荷尔穆兹的能力现在永远不会被遗忘. |
| 139 | I think Iran potentially plays a more meaningful role in the oil market, | 我认为伊朗在石油市场可能发挥更有意义的作用, |
| 140 | assuming there is a peace agreement that allows them to boost their own production and exports. | 假设有和平协定允许它们促进自己的生产和出口。 |
| 141 | Many of these Middle Eastern producers are among the lowest cost producers in the world, | 许多中东生产商是世界上成本最低的生产商之一, |
| 142 | which gives them a natural advantage and which makes them still very attractive | 这给了他们自然优势 也使他们仍然很有吸引力 |
| 143 | and important suppliers to global refiners. | 以及全球精炼厂的重要供应商。 |
| 144 | So the answer to whether the world has reached peak Hormuz is an incredibly complicated one. | 因此,世界是否达到顶峰的答案是 一个令人难以置信的复杂。 |
| 145 | Markets adapted quickly, absorbing shock and fending off price extremes. | 市场迅速适应,吸收了冲击,抵御了极端价格。 |
| 146 | But it's safe to say that most nations will be making a Plan B. | 但可以肯定的是,大多数国家都会制定B计划。 |
| 147 | Even though the waterway will continue to be vital, people have learned some lessons from this crisis. | 尽管水道仍然至关重要,但人们从这场危机中汲取了一些教训。 |
| 148 | The critical things of a peak Hormuz world are redundancy and resiliency and investment in alternatives. | 赫尔穆兹世界最高峰的关键是冗余、复原力和对替代品的投资。 |
该视频共有字幕 148 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格