彭博社：古巴的经济能否在川普时期生存？ | 2026.7.4
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:08 | Perhaps no other nation epitomizes Cold War politics more than Cuba. | 也许没有哪个国家比古巴更能体现冷战政治。 |
| 0:13 | When you look for a country that's, let's say, punched above its weight on a global | 当你寻找一个国家,让我们说,拳头 超过它的重量 一个全球 |
| 0:17 | stage, Cuba should be on the list. | 古巴应被列入名单。 |
| 0:19 | Cuba and the United States, by default of their geography, have always had some kind | 古巴和美国由于地理上的缺陷,一直有某种 |
| 0:24 | of economic relationship. | 经济关系。 |
| 0:27 | When we had prohibition in the United States, Cuba became a haven for American tourists. | 当我们在美国被禁止时,古巴成为美国游客的避风港. |
| 0:32 | Cuba is just 90 miles south of Florida. | 古巴距离佛罗里达州以南90英里 |
| 0:34 | It's in the heart of the Caribbean. | 位于加勒比海的心脏地带. |
| 0:36 | It's been seen as kind of a strategic platform for U.S. rivals. | 这被视为美国对手的一种战略平台. |
| 0:40 | The U.S. has had a broad trade embargo on Cuba since shortly after the revolution in | 美国自古巴革命后不久就对古巴实行了广泛的贸易禁运。 |
展开字幕全文（142 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perhaps no other nation epitomizes Cold War politics more than Cuba. | 也许没有哪个国家比古巴更能体现冷战政治。 |
| 2 | When you look for a country that's, let's say, punched above its weight on a global | 当你寻找一个国家,让我们说,拳头 超过它的重量 一个全球 |
| 3 | stage, Cuba should be on the list. | 古巴应被列入名单。 |
| 4 | Cuba and the United States, by default of their geography, have always had some kind | 古巴和美国由于地理上的缺陷,一直有某种 |
| 5 | of economic relationship. | 经济关系。 |
| 6 | When we had prohibition in the United States, Cuba became a haven for American tourists. | 当我们在美国被禁止时,古巴成为美国游客的避风港. |
| 7 | Cuba is just 90 miles south of Florida. | 古巴距离佛罗里达州以南90英里 |
| 8 | It's in the heart of the Caribbean. | 位于加勒比海的心脏地带. |
| 9 | It's been seen as kind of a strategic platform for U.S. rivals. | 这被视为美国对手的一种战略平台. |
| 10 | The U.S. has had a broad trade embargo on Cuba since shortly after the revolution in | 美国自古巴革命后不久就对古巴实行了广泛的贸易禁运。 |
| 11 | the 1960s. | 20世纪60年代 |
| 12 | Cuba is ruled by a single party, the Cuban Communist Party, and it controls the legislature, | 古巴由一个政党 -- -- 古巴共产党统治,它控制着立法机构, |
| 13 | the military, it controls all facets of society. | 军队控制着社会的方方面面 |
| 14 | But the socialist idealism that births Cuba has grown to a halt, literally running out | 但是,诞生古巴的社会主义理想主义已经发展到停顿,从字面上说已经用尽了 |
| 15 | of gas. | 气体。 |
| 16 | There is a dire jet fuel shortage in Cuba as the U.S. is moving to cut off the country's | 古巴的喷气机燃料严重短缺,因为美国正在着手切断古巴的电力供应。 |
| 17 | oil supply. | 石油供应. |
| 18 | Crippling blackouts and a teetering economy have sparked unrest on the island. | 混乱和动荡的经济引发了岛上的动乱。 |
| 19 | We have an unprecedented degree of suffering on the island. | 我们在岛上遭受了前所未有的痛苦。 |
| 20 | The Trump administration has taken a hard line. | 特朗普政府采取强硬路线. |
| 21 | Cuba has always posed a national security threat. | 古巴始终构成国家安全威胁。 |
| 22 | Tonight the Justice Department unsealing an indictment against former Cuban President | 今晚司法部揭发古巴前总统的起诉 |
| 23 | Raul Castro. | 劳尔·卡斯特罗. |
| 24 | Will Castro actually face this prosecution? | 卡斯特罗真的会面临起诉吗? |
| 25 | The message the indictment sends to the Cuban government is that the U.S. is serious. | 起诉书向古巴政府发出的信息是,美国是认真的. |
| 26 | Amid the upheaval, many are looking for change, and some see opportunity. | 在动荡中,许多人正在寻求变革,有些人看到了机会。 |
| 27 | I would really like Cuba to be realized. | 我真的希望古巴能够实现。 |
| 28 | Two million plus Cubans that leave abroad, they have a genuine desire to see their country | 两百万和出国的古巴人 他们有看到祖国的真正愿望 |
| 29 | prosper and the people prosper and move forward into a different direction. | 繁荣昌盛,人民繁荣昌盛,向不同方向前进. |
| 30 | Uncertainty and crisis are no strangers to Cuba. | 不确定性和危机对于古巴来说并非陌生。 |
| 31 | Cuba was reeling in the early 90s from the collapse of the USSR, so they lost a massive | 90年代早期,古巴在苏联解体后 逐渐衰落 所以他们失去了一个巨大的 |
| 32 | benefactor. | 善财者. |
| 33 | Then, in the early 2000s, Fidel Castro started one of Latin America's most important political | 随后,在2000年代初,菲德尔·卡斯特罗开始成为拉丁美洲最重要的政治人物之一. |
| 34 | and economic alliances with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. | 和委内瑞拉的乌戈·查韦斯的经济联盟。 |
| 35 | Chavez vowed to support Cuba, to help provide them with what they needed, which in essence | 查韦斯发誓要支持古巴,帮助他们获得他们需要的东西,这实质上是 |
| 36 | was a steady supply of oil and refined products. | 石油和精炼产品的稳定供应。 |
| 37 | Oil powers Cuba's electrical grid. | 石油强国古巴电网. |
| 38 | The imported supply has steadily fallen. | 进口供应稳步下降。 |
| 39 | Even when you add in the roughly 40,000 barrels of domestic production a day, it's well short | 即使每天增加大约4万桶的国内生产 也远远不够 |
| 40 | of what's needed to function normally. | 需要什么才能正常运行 |
| 41 | The U.S. swooping in and snatching Maduro and his wife out of bed was a complete game-changer | 美军冲进去抢走马杜罗和妻子下床 是个彻底的改变游戏的人 |
| 42 | for Cuba. | 代表古巴发言。 |
| 43 | With Venezuelan oil gone, Cuba quickly became more vulnerable. | 随着委内瑞拉石油的流失,古巴迅速变得更加脆弱。 |
| 44 | In the past, Russia has supplied some oil, and Mexico also, but in late January, Trump | 过去,俄罗斯曾提供一些石油,墨西哥也提供,但一月下旬,特朗普. |
| 45 | threatened sanctions on any nation that supplied Cuba with oil. | 威胁对向古巴供应石油的任何国家实施制裁。 |
| 46 | And President Claudia Scheinbaum of Mexico decided that was too great a risk to her own economy. | 而墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆(Claudia Scheinbaum)认为这对她自己的经济来说是一个太大的风险. |
| 47 | International voices are calling Trump's crackdown inhumane and illegal. | 国际声音称特朗普镇压不人道和非法. |
| 48 | And the humanitarian consequences, as you might expect, continue to deepen. | 人道主义后果,正如你可能预期的那样,继续加深。 |
| 49 | It is in particular impacting Cuba's health sector, which was long a point of pride. | 这尤其影响到古巴的卫生部门,而卫生部门长期以来一直引以为豪。 |
| 50 | The surgery waitlist has grown. | 手术候诊员已经增加 |
| 51 | Infant mortality is rising. | 婴儿死亡率在上升。 |
| 52 | Attempts to bring in humanitarian aid and food from places like Mexico, it's very slow. | 试图从墨西哥等地运来人道主义援助和食物,非常缓慢. |
| 53 | And when you have no gasoline to distribute those things on the island, it's also difficult | 当你没有汽油在岛上分发这些东西时 也很难 |
| 54 | to get those things into the hands of the people that need them. | 让那些东西落入需要它们的人手中 |
| 55 | Really, it's the Cuban government that ends up with the fuel, with the goods. | 真的,是古巴政府 最终用燃料,商品。 |
| 56 | Famous ration card that the Cuban government always guarantee people in a lot of amount | 有名的配给卡 古巴政府总是保证人们很多 |
| 57 | of rice or chicken or eggs, that's all breaking down. | 大米、鸡、鸡蛋,都碎了 |
| 58 | And now what people are saying on the island is, these products are available, they just | 现在人们在岛上说, 这些产品是可用的,它们只是 |
| 59 | simply can't afford them anymore. | 根本买不起了 |
| 60 | Juan Carlos Blain 经营一家餐馆和杂货店, | |
| 61 | Inflation in Cuba has been running very, very high. | 古巴的通货膨胀率一直很高。 |
| 62 | It kind of peaked during the pandemic at about 71%. | 它在流行期间达到顶峰,约为71%。 |
| 63 | It's at 14% in 2025, and those are the official figures. | 2025年为14%,这些是官方数字. |
| 64 | But economists estimate it's really up here, at nearly pandemic levels. | 但是,经济学家估计它确实在这里, 几乎达到流行病的程度。 |
| 65 | Airlines have had to cancel their flights because there's no jet fuel available on | 航空公司不得不取消航班,因为没有飞机燃料 |
| 66 | the island, so that's, of course, hurt the tourism industry. | 当然,这伤害了旅游业。 |
| 67 | Tourism is a key pillar of the economy. | 旅游业是经济的关键支柱。 |
| 68 | In 2016, President Barack Obama visited the island as part of an attempt to normalize | 2016年,巴拉克·奥巴马总统访问该岛,作为正常化努力的一部分 |
| 69 | relations. | 关系 |
| 70 | Look how visitors climbed, peaking just after that trip. | 参观者们爬上去了 旅行刚结束就登顶了 |
| 71 | Then the pandemic hit. | 然后,该流行病袭击。 |
| 72 | Cuba never fully recovered, with last year's arrivals the lowest outside the COVID years | 古巴从未完全恢复过来,去年到访者在COVID年以外最少 |
| 73 | in two decades. | 在20年的时间里。 |
| 74 | Hotels have closed, and credit card transactions have been suspended. | 酒店关闭,信用卡交易暂停. |
| 75 | The Cuban government has remained reliant on Soviet-era programs. | 古巴政府一直依赖苏联时期的方案。 |
| 76 | The biggest single source of foreign currency for the island right now is its doctors, its | 目前岛上最大的外汇来源是其医生、银行、银行和银行。 |
| 77 | medical brigades. | 医疗队 |
| 78 | At times, there have been more than 24,000 doctors working in these brigades abroad, | 有时,有24 000多名医生在这些旅在国外工作, |
| 79 | and they bring in more than $4 billion to the economy. | 他们给经济带来了超过40亿美元。 |
| 80 | Venezuela sent subsidized oil to Cuba in exchange for Cuban medical workers. | 委内瑞拉向古巴提供补贴的石油,以换取古巴的医务人员. |
| 81 | Cuba has made economic reforms in fits and starts when it had to, but it is the only | 古巴进行了适当的经济改革,并在必须改革时开始了改革,但这是唯一的改革。 |
| 82 | remaining communist country that hasn't attempted any type of substantial market reform. | 还没有尝试过任何类型的实质性市场改革的共产主义国家 |
| 83 | The Cubans have having this incredible ability to adapt. | 古巴人有这种不可思议的适应能力. |
| 84 | You start to read about the business literature in Cuba, and it always talks about how resilient | 你开始读古巴的商业文献, 它总是谈论如何弹性 |
| 85 | they are. | 他们是。 |
| 86 | And that's what we're seeing now. | 这就是我们现在看到的。 |
| 87 | The Cuban government says there are now more than 9,200 small and medium businesses. | 古巴政府表示,目前已有9200多家中小企业. |
| 88 | The private sector, shown here in grey, is also employing a growing share of the workforce. | 这里以灰色表示的私营部门也在雇用越来越多的劳动力。 |
| 89 | Cuba's leadership is not blind to the situation. | 古巴领导人对局势并不视而不见。 |
| 90 | The Cuban government approving more than 170 sweeping economic reforms opening the door | 古巴政府批准了170多项全面经济改革,打开了大门 |
| 91 | to private investment. | 对私人投资。 |
| 92 | Cuba is opening itself up to foreign investment. | 古巴向外国投资开放。 |
| 93 | It is allowing its private sector to grow, but it is still a communist system. | 它允许其私营部门发展,但它仍然是一个共产主义制度。 |
| 94 | Doing business in Cuba involves doing business with the state. | 在古巴做生意涉及与国家做生意。 |
| 95 | The government has also said that Cubans living abroad should be allowed to invest in small | 政府还说,应允许居住在国外的古巴人投资小型住房。 |
| 96 | business and own small businesses on the island, but again, there's so many caveats there. | 岛上有商业和小企业, 但同样,有很多警告。 |
| 97 | You would be a fool to invest in Cuba under these circumstances, precisely because the | 在这种情况下,在古巴投资是愚蠢的,正因为 |
| 98 | Cuban government provides no guarantees, or either the investment that you might make, | 古巴政府不提供保障,也不提供你们可能作出的投资。 |
| 99 | or property ownership, or just the rights of private entrepreneurs to control the nature | 或财产所有权,或仅仅是私营企业家控制性质的权利 |
| 100 | of their investment or the profits that might accrue. | 或可能积累的利润。 |
| 101 | Cuba's expat community is helping to fill the void. | 古巴的侨民社区正在帮助填补空白。 |
| 102 | Hugo Cancio runs Carapolk, an online marketplace that allows the Cuban diaspora to buy anything | Hugo Cancio经营卡拉波尔克网络市场, |
| 103 | from groceries to mobile minutes for their relatives. | 从杂货店到他们的亲属移动时间。 |
| 104 | We have over 33,000 products. | 我们有33,000多件产品。 |
| 105 | We do about 1,500 to 2,000 orders a day. | 我们每天约1500到2000个订单。 |
| 106 | We have huge logistics on the ground. | 我们在当地有巨大的后勤。 |
| 107 | There is an exception to Commerce Department's export controls on Cuba. | 商务部对古巴的出口管制例外。 |
| 108 | This allows companies like Hugo Cancio to import food, to import consumer goods, without | 这使Hugo Cancio等公司能够进口粮食,进口消费品,而无需进口 |
| 109 | running afoul of U.S. sanctions. | 违反美国制裁 |
| 110 | Cancio's company is even shipping containers of natural gas to the island. | Cancio的公司甚至将天然气的集装箱运送到岛上. |
| 111 | But the quantities needed to recharge the country's energy grid will have to come from | 但充电所需数量 国家能源网将不得不来自 |
| 112 | big suppliers. | 大供应商。 |
| 113 | Big money is going to take a while to come. | 大钱要花一阵子 |
| 114 | You need to change the rules of engagement. | 你需要改变交战规则。 |
| 115 | You need to have a legal system that protects investment. | 你需要有一个保护投资的法律制度。 |
| 116 | There's wealth being created in Cuba. | 古巴正在创造财富。 |
| 117 | I think the private sector of the champions right now, they're the one moving forward | 我想现在冠军的私人部门 才是前进的 |
| 118 | whatever little economy there is left. | 不管还有什么小经济 |
| 119 | Meanwhile, American internal politics are also driving much change in Cuba. | 与此同时,美国内部政治也在推动古巴发生许多变化。 |
| 120 | You can't tell the Cuban political story without telling the South Florida story. | 不讲南佛罗里达州的故事,就不能讲古巴的政治故事. |
| 121 | Marco Rubio is born to Cuban parents in Florida. | 马可·鲁比奥出生于佛罗里达州的古巴父母. |
| 122 | He's definitely part of this kind of Cuban hardline, this Cuban political force that | 他绝对是古巴强硬派 政治力量的一员 |
| 123 | wants to see change in Cuba. | 想要看到古巴的变化。 |
| 124 | And it's important for U.S. politics. | 并且对美国政治很重要. |
| 125 | I really don't believe this system is capable of reform unless new people take over. | 我真的不相信这个制度能够改革,除非新人接手. |
| 126 | Somebody like Rubio, who probably has presidential aspirations, if he could give this to that | 像鲁比奥这样的人, 他也许有总统的愿望, 如果他能把这个给 |
| 127 | community, if he could be the one to usher in regime change, it would probably vault | 社区,如果他能 带来政权更迭, 它可能金库 |
| 128 | him to the very front of the field in a future Republican primary. | 在未来的共和党初选中 他来到球场的最前线 |
| 129 | I think he'd like to be the liberator, quote unquote, of Cuba. | 我想他想成为古巴的解放者, 引用原文。 |
| 130 | And I think that the Republican Party in general owes much of its electoral success, at least | 我认为共和党总体上 在很大程度上要归功于选举的成功 |
| 131 | since the year 2000, to the state of Florida and largely to South Florida voters who are | 从2000年开始,到佛罗里达州 和大部分南佛罗里达州的选民 |
| 132 | Cuban exiles. | 古巴流亡者. |
| 133 | I'm going to take good care of them. | 我会好好照顾他们 |
| 134 | I'm going to let them go back to their land. | 我要让他们回到自己的土地上 |
| 135 | I personally, a lot of Cubans don't want this direct military confrontation with the | 我个人说,很多古巴人不希望 直接的军事对抗 |
| 136 | United States. | 美国。 |
| 137 | That would be really sad. | 那会很伤心的 |
| 138 | Somewhere in Cuba, there is someone's mother, someone's father. | 在古巴的某个地方,有人的母亲,有人的父亲。 |
| 139 | Here's my young nephew, he's 19 years old, he's in the Cuban military. | 这是我的小侄子,19岁,在古巴军队服役. |
| 140 | I hope and will do everything within my powers to where my adoptive country and my native | 我希望并且将尽我所能 去我的养国和我的家乡 |
| 141 | country come to term and negotiate it, and to this humanitarian crisis that is happening | 面对这场正在发生的人道主义危机, |
| 142 | on the island right now. | 现在在岛上。 |
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