法里德观点：一场完美风暴即将席卷全球经济 | 2025.5.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Here's my take. | 这是我的选择 |
| 0:03 | As the White House continues to take up all our attention with its ongoing tariff war | 随着白宫继续以不断的关税战争来关注我们 |
| 0:07 | with the world, a little ways down Pennsylvania Avenue, Congress is preparing a budget bill | 与世界,一点点的方式 宾夕法尼亚大道, 国会正在准备预算法案 |
| 0:13 | that could prove to be almost as consequential. | 这可能会证明 几乎是后果。 |
| 0:16 | If it renews Trump's 2017 tax cuts, and enacts all his newly proposed ones, and does not | 如果它延长了特朗普2017年的减税计划,并颁布他所有新提出的减税计划,而不是 |
| 0:23 | cut spending, they will add up to $9 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, according | 削减支出,在十年内将增加9万亿美元的国家债务。 |
| 0:30 | to the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation. | 彼得·彼得森基金会 |
| 0:34 | At that point, America would likely be running among its largest deficits as a percent of | 那时,美国很可能是最大的赤字之一,占 |
| 0:39 | GDP in history, and that's in peacetime with no pandemic. | 历史上的GDP, 而在和平时期没有大流行。 |
| 0:45 | At the same time, Washington is raising tariffs on almost all its imports. | 与此同时,华盛顿正在提高几乎所有进口品的关税。 |
展开字幕全文（76 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Here's my take. | 这是我的选择 |
| 2 | As the White House continues to take up all our attention with its ongoing tariff war | 随着白宫继续以不断的关税战争来关注我们 |
| 3 | with the world, a little ways down Pennsylvania Avenue, Congress is preparing a budget bill | 与世界,一点点的方式 宾夕法尼亚大道, 国会正在准备预算法案 |
| 4 | that could prove to be almost as consequential. | 这可能会证明 几乎是后果。 |
| 5 | If it renews Trump's 2017 tax cuts, and enacts all his newly proposed ones, and does not | 如果它延长了特朗普2017年的减税计划,并颁布他所有新提出的减税计划,而不是 |
| 6 | cut spending, they will add up to $9 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, according | 削减支出,在十年内将增加9万亿美元的国家债务。 |
| 7 | to the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation. | 彼得·彼得森基金会 |
| 8 | At that point, America would likely be running among its largest deficits as a percent of | 那时,美国很可能是最大的赤字之一,占 |
| 9 | GDP in history, and that's in peacetime with no pandemic. | 历史上的GDP, 而在和平时期没有大流行。 |
| 10 | At the same time, Washington is raising tariffs on almost all its imports. | 与此同时,华盛顿正在提高几乎所有进口品的关税。 |
| 11 | We may have the makings of a perfect storm in the global economy. | 在全球经济中,我们可能有一场完美的风暴。 |
| 12 | That's what Kenneth Rogoff, a famous Harvard economist, worries about. | 这就是哈佛著名经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫所担心的. |
| 13 | One of his past books presciently warned about the dangers of a financial crisis. | 他过去的一本书对金融危机的危险预先提出警告。 |
| 14 | It was published in 2009, while the global financial crisis was unfolding, but of course | 它发布于2009年,同时全球金融危机正在展开,但当然 |
| 15 | was researched and written well before it. | 之前已经研究并写好了 |
| 16 | His new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, worries that we are jeopardizing the dollar's pivotal | 他的新书《我们的美元,你的问题》 担心我们危害到美元的关键 |
| 17 | role in the global economy. | 在全球经济中的作用。 |
| 18 | That should matter to all Americans because we benefit enormously from what has been described | 这对所有美国人都很重要,因为我们从描述中获得了巨大的利益 |
| 19 | as the exorbitant privilege of having the world's reserve currency. | 作为拥有世界储备货币的崇高特权。 |
| 20 | Rogoff explained to me that it allows us to borrow more cheaply, whether it's mortgages, | 罗格夫向我解释,它允许我们更便宜的借款, 无论是抵押贷款, |
| 21 | car loans or credit card debt. | 汽车贷款或信用卡债务。 |
| 22 | And he estimated that the discount Americans get on their loans because of the dollar is | 他估计美国人因为美元而得到的贷款是 |
| 23 | probably between half a percent to one percent. | 也许在半到1%之间 |
| 24 | It's sometimes hard to detect the signal amidst the buzz of noise that surrounds us these | 有时很难在周围的噪音中 发现信号 |
| 25 | But Rogoff says focus on interest rates. | 但罗格夫说关注利率. |
| 26 | The key fact is that after decades of falling and low interest rates, they are now up to | 关键事实是,经过几十年的利率下跌和低利率之后,现在达到 |
| 27 | historically normal levels and will stay up. | 历史的正常水平,并将保持上升。 |
| 28 | That is what makes America's debt burden dangerous. | 这就是美国债务负担的危险所在。 |
| 29 | Interest on the debt now approaches a trillion dollars per year, more total defense spending. | 现在债务利息接近每年一万亿美元,国防开支总额增加。 |
| 30 | The economic historian, Neil Ferguson, has suggested that when this happens, a great | 经济历史学家尼尔·弗格森(英语:Neil Ferguson)建议,一旦发生这种情况,一个伟大的 |
| 31 | power risks that it will no longer be great. | 权力的风险 将不再是伟大的。 |
| 32 | Rogoff predicts an economic storm and that it will be a good bit sooner because of Trump's | 罗格夫预测一场经济风暴,并且由于特朗普的出现,这将会更快一点. |
| 33 | economic policies. | 经济政策。 |
| 34 | He believes that unless these policies are drastically reversed, there is a 50 percent | 他认为,除非这些政策被大幅度扭转,否则会有50% |
| 35 | or more chance of a financial crisis or spiraling inflation or both by the end of this presidential | 或更可能发生金融危机或通货膨胀螺旋上升,或总统任期结束前两者兼有 |
| 36 | term. | 术语。 |
| 37 | Some of the pressures we face are because of events outside America's control. | 我们面临的一些压力是由于美国无法控制的事件造成的。 |
| 38 | Other countries have always resented the dollar's exalted status, especially once America began | 其他国家一直怨恨美元的地位,特别是一旦美国开始 |
| 39 | to weaponize it. | 把它武器化。 |
| 40 | Washington has promiscuously imposed sanctions on dozens of countries, often unilaterally, | 华盛顿对几十个国家实施制裁,常常是单方面的, |
| 41 | and these sanctions work only because of the dollar's special status. | 这些制裁只因为美元的特殊地位 |
| 42 | The Europeans, the Chinese, the Russians, and mostly every large country is quietly | 欧洲人、中国人、俄罗斯人 以及大部分的大国都是安静的 |
| 43 | making efforts to wean themselves off their dependence on the dollar. | 努力摆脱对美元的依赖。 |
| 44 | It's a slow process, but it is moving in only one direction, away from the dollar. | 这是一个缓慢的过程,但它只是朝着一个方向移动,远离美元。 |
| 45 | And while there's no single substitute for America's currency, Rogoff believes that the | 虽然美国货币没有单一的替代品,但罗格夫认为 |
| 46 | dollar will lose share to a basket of other currencies as well as alternatives like Bitcoin. | 美元将失去对一篮子其他货币以及比特币等替代货币的份额. |
| 47 | This is not all about Trump. | 这不是所有关于特朗普。 |
| 48 | Rogoff argues that there has been a bipartisan recklessness in America's fiscal policy for | 罗格夫认为,美国的财政政策中存在两党的鲁莽主义。 |
| 49 | decades, with Republicans cutting taxes and Democrats spending, both without restraint. | 几十年来,共和党削减税收和民主党支出,两者都毫无限制. |
| 50 | It is worth noting, however, that the math is clear. | 然而,值得注意的是,数学是明确的。 |
| 51 | Tax cuts are responsible for the vast majority of the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio over | 减税是债务与国内生产总值之比增长的主要原因。 |
| 52 | the last 25 years. | 过去25年。 |
| 53 | He is also profoundly worried that the Federal Reserve's independence is being compromised | 他还对美联储的独立性受到破坏深感忧虑 |
| 54 | both from the right and from the left. | 从左右两侧 |
| 55 | Though it's worth noting that Trump is the first president to routinely attack the Fed, | 虽然值得注意的是特朗普是首任例行攻击美联储的总统, |
| 56 | threaten to fire its chair, and challenge the legality of independent institutions, | 威胁要开除主席,挑战独立机构的合法性, |
| 57 | like it, in court. | 喜欢,在法庭上。 |
| 58 | Rogoff told me, much of the dollar's role comes from our reputation for good, stable, | 罗格夫告诉我,美元的大部分角色 来自于我们的声誉好,稳定, |
| 59 | predictable policy, from the Fed's independence from political pressures, from our trustworthiness | 从美联储脱离政治压力 脱离我们的可信度 |
| 60 | as the world's superpower. | 作为世界的超能力。 |
| 61 | You can't trash all that and expect the dollar to be unaffected. | 你不能把这些都浪费掉 指望美元不会受到影响 |
| 62 | There are solutions, of course, but none are painless. | 当然有解决办法,但是没有一种是无痛的。 |
| 63 | Doge has been an abject failure. | 道格是个失败者 |
| 64 | Of the $165 billion it claims to have saved, estimates of its actual verifiable savings | 在它声称节省的1 650亿美元中,对实际可核实的节余的估计 |
| 65 | are around $65 billion, and even that might be an exaggeration. | 大约650亿美元,甚至这可能是夸张。 |
| 66 | Anyway, that is 3% or less of the $2 trillion Elon Musk confidently predicted he would cut | 总之,这相当于2万亿伊隆·穆斯克 满怀信心地预言他会削减的3%或更少 |
| 67 | from the federal budget. | 联邦预算。 |
| 68 | That leaves us where we always were. | 那样我们就能回到过去 |
| 69 | The path to reducing the deficit is to cut the big programs like Medicare, Social Security, | 减少赤字的途径是削减大计划 比如医疗保险、社会保障 |
| 70 | and defense, and also to raise taxes. | 和国防, 以及提高税收。 |
| 71 | We are on track to do the opposite, enact huge tax cuts and jack up defense spending | 我们正走在相反的轨道上 实施大幅减税和削减国防开支 |
| 72 | by, if Trump's proposal is accepted, a whopping 13%. | 如果特朗普的提议被接受的话 就会有13%的麻烦 |
| 73 | Rogoff says we have been smart and lucky for the past few decades, which has allowed us | 罗格夫说过去几十年我们很聪明很幸运 这使得我们 |
| 74 | to run up deficits with no visible costs. | 以无可见成本弥补赤字。 |
| 75 | But our economic policy is now, quote, dumb, the worst in my lifetime, unquote. | 但是,我们的经济政策现在,引用,哑巴, 是我一生中最糟糕的,没有引证. |
| 76 | And our luck might have run out. | 而我们的运气可能已经耗尽了。 |
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