业内警告：AI可能在2030年前消灭人类 | 2026.9.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Jacob Coxon已经离开Anthropic 发出关于人工智能危险的警报 | |
| 0:07 | on his way out the door. | 在他走出门的路上。 |
| 0:08 | The 27-year-old outlined his concerns in a series of social media posts when he quit, | 27岁的他辞职后在一系列社交媒体文章中, |
| 0:12 | writing in part, | 部分写作, |
| 0:14 | The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. | 建立大赦国际的人真诚地认为,到本十年结束时,它会杀死我们所有人。 |
| 0:19 | This is not a marketing stunt. | 这不是营销特技 |
| 0:20 | If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to | 许多高管和高级研究员 都会在媒体上表达他们的观点 |
| 0:25 | sound sensible, but I hear the same people express fear privately. | 听起来很明智 但我听到同一个人私下表达恐惧 |
| 0:29 | No other human activity poses this level of danger. | 没有其他人类活动构成这种程度的危险。 |
| 0:33 | At least one of his former colleagues agrees. | 至少他以前的一位同事同意这一点。 |
展开字幕全文（148 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Coxon已经离开Anthropic 发出关于人工智能危险的警报 | |
| 2 | on his way out the door. | 在他走出门的路上。 |
| 3 | The 27-year-old outlined his concerns in a series of social media posts when he quit, | 27岁的他辞职后在一系列社交媒体文章中, |
| 4 | writing in part, | 部分写作, |
| 5 | The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. | 建立大赦国际的人真诚地认为,到本十年结束时,它会杀死我们所有人。 |
| 6 | This is not a marketing stunt. | 这不是营销特技 |
| 7 | If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to | 许多高管和高级研究员 都会在媒体上表达他们的观点 |
| 8 | sound sensible, but I hear the same people express fear privately. | 听起来很明智 但我听到同一个人私下表达恐惧 |
| 9 | No other human activity poses this level of danger. | 没有其他人类活动构成这种程度的危险。 |
| 10 | At least one of his former colleagues agrees. | 至少他以前的一位同事同意这一点。 |
| 11 | Evan Hubbinger,一位在Anthropic的校对科学领袖,分享了Coxon的文章, | |
| 12 | Jacob is correct here. | 雅各布在这里是正确的。 |
| 13 | We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans. | 我们真心相信AI会杀死所有人类 |
| 14 | I personally think it is greater than 10% within the next decade. | 我个人认为这在接下来的十年里超过10%. |
| 15 | I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment | 我相信Anthropic已经尽力了 但我们还没有解决对齐的计划 |
| 16 | for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to. | 对于超级情报 并且没有明确的轨道上。 |
| 17 | An Anthropic spokesperson tells CNN, | 一位人类发言人告诉CNN, |
| 18 | like cyber security and biology and publish what we've learned for scrutiny and research. | 就像网络安全和生物学 发表我们所学到的 供审查和研究 |
| 19 | 就他而言,考克逊在Anthropic和OpenAI都担任研究员. | |
| 20 | He says neither company is acting responsibly. | 他说两家公司都不负责任 |
| 21 | Jacob Coxon joins us now. | 雅各布・考克森现在加入我们。 |
| 22 | Jacob, I appreciate you being with us. | 雅各布,我很感激你和我们在一起。 |
| 23 | First of all, I assume you are saying literally that you believe that AI could kill us all | 首先,我想你是在说 你相信AI会杀了我们所有人 |
| 24 | by the end of the decade. | 在十年结束时。 |
| 25 | How would that happen? | 怎么会这样? |
| 26 | What would that actually look like? | 那会是什么样子? |
| 27 | Yeah, so the precise scenario sounds a little bit like science fiction. | 是啊,所以精确的情景 听起来有点像科幻小说。 |
| 28 | It sounds like something that's not real, but I think it is frighteningly real, | 听起来好像不是真的 但我觉得这很真实 |
| 29 | and it's easiest to understand it if you think about real things that happened two months ago. | 如果你想到两个月前发生的真事 很容易理解 |
| 30 | So two months ago, OpenAI agents, AIs, hacked into third-party infrastructure entirely at | 所以两个月前 OpenAI 特工 AIs 入侵第三方基础设施 |
| 31 | their own accord, and this was like a concentrated hacking spree that they carried out of their | 他们的意志, 这就像一个集中的 黑客暴风雪 他们从他们的 |
| 32 | own volition. | 自己的意志。 |
| 33 | And I think that if you extrapolate into the future the level of capabilities of these | 我认为,如果你推断出 未来的能力水平 |
| 34 | AIs with the same independent volition, they could cause extreme havoc. | 有同样独立意志的AI,它们可能造成极大的破坏. |
| 35 | For example, hacking critical infrastructure, building extinction-level bioweapons. | 例如,黑客入侵关键基础设施,制造灭绝级生物武器。 |
| 36 | There's a lot of ways that the AI could actuate itself in the world. | 人工智能在世界上可以发动自己的多种方式. |
| 37 | Is it specifically, when did your feelings about this technology change? | 具体来说,你对这项技术的感受是什么时候改变的? |
| 38 | Was it something about the rate of progress that you've seen? | 这是关于你所看到的进度吗? |
| 39 | Yeah, so I think it's really important to just look at the rate of progress and say, | 是啊,所以我认为它真的很重要 只是看看进度 并说, |
| 40 | for example, in areas like coding or math, a couple of years ago, these AIs were just | 例如,在编码或数学等领域,几年前,这些AI只是 |
| 41 | about helping humans a little bit. | 关于帮助人类一点点。 |
| 42 | They could give you suggestions. | 他们可以给你建议。 |
| 43 | Now they're close to replacing them. | 现在他们几乎要取代他们了 |
| 44 | We still need humans at the moment, but quite plausibly, within a year, we'll no longer | 目前我们仍然需要人类, 但很合理,在一年之内,我们将不再 |
| 45 | need humans for doing research in many areas. | 需要人类在许多领域进行研究。 |
| 46 | Only on Tuesday, OpenAI solved a millennium problem, one of the biggest unsolved open | 直到星期二,OpenAI解决了一个千年问题, 一个最大的未解决的开放问题 |
| 47 | problems in mathematics, purely autonomously using an AI. | 数学上的问题,纯粹是自主使用AI. |
| 48 | And I think what's most scary is if AI is used to make itself more intelligent. | 我觉得最可怕的是 如果用AI来让自己更聪明 |
| 49 | So you can take an AI and give it the problem of AI research, just like currently they've | 所以,你可以接受AI 并给它的问题 AI研究,就像现在他们 |
| 50 | given it math research. | 给了它数学研究。 |
| 51 | You could make it do the tasks that we're currently doing, and then you get what's called | 你可以让它完成我们目前的任务 然后你得到所谓的 |
| 52 | an intelligence explosion. | 情报爆炸 |
| 53 | The AI just gets smarter and smarter with no human involvement necessary, and so you | 人工智能只是越来越聪明 不需要人的参与,所以你 |
| 54 | have a thing that is vastly smarter than humans, and this could be coming very soon. | 有一种比人类聪明得多的东西, 这可能很快就会到来。 |
| 55 | We mentioned a former colleague of yours who currently works at Anthropic, basically endorsing | 我们提到你以前的一位同事, 他目前在安特罗皮克工作,基本上赞成 |
| 56 | the assessment that AI could potentially kill everyone within a decade. | 关于大赦国际可能在十年内杀死所有人的评估。 |
| 57 | In a follow-up post, he said, to be clear, as we say in our latest risk report, I think | 他说,正如我们在最近的风险报告中所说的那样,要明确一点,我认为, |
| 58 | the risk from present models is low. | 现有模型的风险较低。 |
| 59 | What I'm worried about is superintelligence arising from recursive self-improvement, as | 我担心的是 由递归自我改进产生的超智能 |
| 60 | we've said, is happening faster than we thought. | 我们说过,发生的速度比我们想象的要快 |
| 61 | I assume that's what you, the recursive self-improvement is what you've just spoken about. | 我猜这就是你, 递归自我改进 是你刚才说的。 |
| 62 | Do you agree with him that the current models, the risk is low, but it's just the speed with | 你是否同意他的观点,即目前的模型,风险很低,但这只是速度与 |
| 63 | which this is now improving? | 现在情况正在好转? |
| 64 | Exactly, I completely agree. | 没错 我完全同意 |
| 65 | Right now, there's no risk of extinction. | 现在,没有灭绝的危险。 |
| 66 | The current models, the worst they can do is maybe hack into something, potentially | 现在的模型,他们能做的最坏的可能是 黑入一些东西,潜在的 |
| 67 | cause a lot of damages in infrastructure, but they're not intelligent enough to outsmart | 对基础设施造成很多破坏 但是它们不够聪明 不足以超越智能 |
| 68 | us at the level that would lead to extinction. | 我们的层面 会导致灭绝 |
| 69 | I think what's just crazy is to look at the rate of progress, and there is a very real | 我认为疯狂的是看进步的速度, 有一个非常真实的 |
| 70 | possibility that in the immediate future, these are years that next year, the year after, | 可能在不久的将来,这些是明年,即下一年, |
| 71 | recursive self-improvement will happen and will enter the phase of Evans Post where he | 递归自我改善将发生 并将进入埃文斯邮报的阶段 |
| 72 | argues that there's a chance we could all die. | 认为我们都有可能死 |
| 73 | That is coming soon. | 马上就要来了。 |
| 74 | A lot of these CEOs of these companies will go to Congress and say, hey, we would love | 这些公司的很多CEO 会去国会说,嘿,我们很乐意 |
| 75 | regulation. | 条例。 |
| 76 | Anthropic in their new statement right now says, the world would benefit from the industry | 他们的新声明说,世界将受益于这个行业 |
| 77 | adopting a lawful, verifiable way to work together to pace how we release powerful models. | 采取合法、可核查的方法,共同努力,加快我们释放强大模型的速度。 |
| 78 | You know the arguments that's an arms race if the U.S. company doesn't achieve the best | 如果美国公司没有取得最好成绩的话 你知道什么是军备竞赛 |
| 79 | AI, a Chinese company or some bad actors out there might. | AI,一个中国公司 或一些坏演员在那里可能。 |
| 80 | Do you believe that these companies actually do want regulation or is it lip service? | 你相信这些公司真的想要监管还是口头上说? |
| 81 | They completely do. | 他们完全做到了。 |
| 82 | This is completely honest. | 这是完全诚实的。 |
| 83 | Just in the same way that the response to Evans Post was sort of surprise, it was like, | 就像对埃文斯邮报的反应 有点出乎意料一样 |
| 84 | this can't be real. | 这不可能是真的 |
| 85 | Surely a guy working on this technology can't actually believe there's this level of danger. | 研究这种技术的人肯定无法相信有这种程度的危险。 |
| 86 | No, that's completely genuine, and these people are also completely genuine when they are | 不,这是完全真实的, 而这些人也是完全真实的,当他们是 |
| 87 | begging to be regulated. | 乞受戒严. |
| 88 | This is a genuine, they find themselves in this scenario where they're compelled to race | 这是真的,他们发现自己 在这种情况下 他们被迫种族 |
| 89 | towards building a deadly technology, and they would love for some sort of international | 他们渴望某种国际技术 |
| 90 | body to allow them to approach it at a reasonable pace. | 让他们以合理的速度接近它 |
| 91 | They just don't trust that the people around them are going to get there in a safe way, | 他们只是不相信周围的人 会安全到达那里, |
| 92 | so they feel like they have to race there too. | 所以他们觉得他们也得去比赛 |
| 93 | You could have stayed quiet. | 你可以保持安静。 |
| 94 | I'm sure you had a great job being paid, I imagine, very well. | 我敢肯定,你有一个伟大的工作 报酬,我想,非常好。 |
| 95 | You're obviously an incredibly smart mathematician. | 显然你是一个非常聪明的数学家。 |
| 96 | Why did you decide to speak out? | 你为什么决定说出来? |
| 97 | Well, I initially just decided to leave. | 我最初决定离开 |
| 98 | I thought I can't be part of this anymore, but then I realized I could probably make | 我以为我不能再参与其中了 但后来我意识到我可能可以 |
| 99 | some use of it. | 有点用 |
| 100 | I did not expect it to go this viral, so what I did is I wrote a Twitter thread out. | 我没想到它会传播到这个病毒, 所以我所做的就是写了一条推特线索。 |
| 101 | 我在Google Doc上写的 | |
| 102 | I drafted it with a friend. | 我和朋友一起起草的 |
| 103 | We collaborated. | 我们合作过 |
| 104 | Yeah, I had a few, there were a few friends I discussed the best way of expressing myself | 是啊,我有几个,有几个朋友 我讨论了最好的表达方式 |
| 105 | with after I decided to leave, and then I also got some friends to retweet the thing. | 我决定离开之后,我还找了几个朋友 来重新接听 |
| 106 | I was like, let's try and make this a bit viral, but clearly there was latent demand | 我当时想,让我们试试 让这个有点病毒, 但显然有潜在的需求 |
| 107 | for this thing to absolutely explode. | 让这东西完全爆炸 |
| 108 | Like I've never seen an AI safety tweet go this crazy. | 我从未见过AI安全推文这么疯狂 |
| 109 | I think it's because people saw the cyberattacks in the last couple of months. | 我想是因为人们看到过去几个月的网络攻击。 |
| 110 | They're also starting to internalize the rate of progress. | 他们也开始内部化进步速度. |
| 111 | People are starting to realize this is real technology. | 人们开始意识到这是真正的技术。 |
| 112 | This is not like hype. | 这不像胡说八道 |
| 113 | This isn't going away anytime soon. | 这不会很快消失的 |
| 114 | This is only going to get more crazy. | 这只会更疯狂。 |
| 115 | It's been getting crazier for the last six months, and I think there was that latent | 这半年来越来越疯狂了 我认为有潜伏的 |
| 116 | understanding of the severity of the situation that meant that this was like a sort of a | 理解局势的严重性,这意味着这就像一种 |
| 117 | match that lit kind of a flame. | 匹配点燃的火焰 |
| 118 | Like I was very shocked by the extent that how quickly it went viral. | 就像我非常震惊 它的病毒传播的速度。 |
| 119 | 我让AnthropixClaude让我冒着被AI杀害的风险 | |
| 120 | decade, and at first they didn't want to answer the question. | 起初他们不想回答这个问题。 |
| 121 | It sort of gave me the runaround, but then I pressed it, and then Anthropix's own model | 它给了我一些绕圈, 但我按它, 然后Anthropix自己的模型 |
| 122 | told me between two and five percent. | 告诉我2%到5%。 |
| 123 | I think the question many of us would want to know is how would AI try to go about this? | 我认为我们许多人想知道的问题是,AI将如何尝试做到这一点? |
| 124 | Oh, jeez, Boris, I mean, you know, the list of threats grows by the day. | 哦,天啊,鲍里斯,我的意思是,你知道, 威胁清单逐日增长。 |
| 125 | We know, first of all, right, that there is a growing body of evidence that this technology | 我们首先知道,没错, 越来越多的证据表明,这种技术 |
| 126 | has capabilities in the creation of bio weapons and the creation of cyber security hacks that | 拥有制造生物武器和制造网络安全黑客的能力 |
| 127 | are unprecedented and unguardable against. | 这是史无前例的,是无法防范的。 |
| 128 | We just saw just a couple of weeks ago, a California research facility basically saying | 几周前我们刚看到 一个加州研究机构说 |
| 129 | that they'd created through AI in two days a cyber security hack that would basically | 他们通过AI在两天内创造了 一个网络安全黑客 基本上会 |
| 130 | infect one of the largest messaging apps in all of the world on your phone without you | 在你手机上感染了全世界最大的信息应用之一 |
| 131 | really even having to ever touch the phone. | 甚至连手机都碰过 |
| 132 | There are incredible amounts of danger coming here. | 这儿有惊人的危险 |
| 133 | And I think what's what all of these researchers are so worried about and what they're talking | 我认为这些研究者都担心什么 以及他们在说什么 |
| 134 | about now so publicly is the recursive ability, the ability of these technologies to improve | 这些技术的递归能力、改进能力 |
| 135 | themselves. | 他们自己。 |
| 136 | Anthropix has said at this point, and some of this is the weird thing is you | Anthropix说这时候 有些怪事是你 |
| 137 | can't quite distinguish the marketing language from the warning language here. | 无法将营销语言和警告语言完全区分开来. |
| 138 | The warning is that Claude evidently could make the next version of itself without any | 警告是,克劳德显然可以 使自己的下一个版本 没有任何 |
| 139 | human intervention. | 人类干预。 |
| 140 | We're at a place where this technology is improving itself incredibly | 我们正处在一个地方 科技正在不断改进 |
| 141 | quickly. | 快点 |
| 142 | And I would just point out, Jacob Cox and the person here, he is walking away | 我只想指出,雅各布・考克斯 和这里的人, 他走了 |
| 143 | from an immense payday, an estimated seven weeks before this company is supposed to go | 从一个巨大的工资日, 估计7周前 这家公司应该去 |
| 144 | public. | 大众. |
| 145 | This guy who is core to the effort of pre-training the data is walking away from | 这个对预训工作至关重要的家伙 数据正在离开 |
| 146 | one of the greatest payouts in the history of capitalism. | 资本主义史上最大的报酬之一 |
| 147 | And so I think it's really important we listen to a guy who is this much at stake, leaving | 所以,我认为这真的很重要 我们听一个家伙 谁有这么多的风险,离开 |
| 148 | with no plans for anything else and saying something as scary as this. | 没有别的计划, 并说出这样可怕的事情。 |
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