经济学人：英伟达的增长会引发金融危机吗 | 2026.9.8
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Henry, describe to me the kind of remarkable financial performance of this company. | Henry 给我描述一下这家公司的杰出财务表现 |
| 0:07 | Yes, it's astonishing. | 是的,这是惊人的。 |
| 0:08 | So in the era of AI, since chat GPT was released to the public, | 所以在AI时代 自从聊天GPT向公众发布后 |
| 0:13 | Nvidia's share price has gone up 14 times. | 恩维迪亚的股价上涨了14倍. |
| 0:16 | And that's not just a speculative effect, | 这不仅仅是一种推测效应, |
| 0:19 | you know, people punting on the company, it's justified by underlying revenues, which have | 你知道,人们在公司, 这是正当的 基础收入,他们有 |
| 0:24 | also shot up. | 还中枪了 |
| 0:25 | And we've got a chart of this. | 我们有一个图表。 |
| 0:27 | It shows Nvidia's quarterly revenue. | 它显示了Nvidia的季度收入. |
| 0:29 | If you | 如果你们 |
展开字幕全文（140 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry, describe to me the kind of remarkable financial performance of this company. | Henry 给我描述一下这家公司的杰出财务表现 |
| 2 | Yes, it's astonishing. | 是的,这是惊人的。 |
| 3 | So in the era of AI, since chat GPT was released to the public, | 所以在AI时代 自从聊天GPT向公众发布后 |
| 4 | Nvidia's share price has gone up 14 times. | 恩维迪亚的股价上涨了14倍. |
| 5 | And that's not just a speculative effect, | 这不仅仅是一种推测效应, |
| 6 | you know, people punting on the company, it's justified by underlying revenues, which have | 你知道,人们在公司, 这是正当的 基础收入,他们有 |
| 7 | also shot up. | 还中枪了 |
| 8 | And we've got a chart of this. | 我们有一个图表。 |
| 9 | It shows Nvidia's quarterly revenue. | 它显示了Nvidia的季度收入. |
| 10 | If you | 如果你们 |
| 11 | double in each of the past three years, and now we're not far off $100 billion in quarterly | 过去3年里,我们每个季度都翻两番, 而现在我们距离1000亿美元还差不到 |
| 12 | revenue. | 收入。 |
| 13 | And that's just completely shot up from, you know, 2015, when this was much more of a | 这只是完全拍摄 从,你知道,2015年, 当这更是一个 |
| 14 | company for gamers and enthusiasts screwing in their graphics cards into their computers. | 游戏商和爱好者在他们的显卡里搞电脑 |
| 15 | And this has been reflected in the stock price. | 而这一点已经反映在股票价格上. |
| 16 | And then Nvidia has become big enough that that's | 然后Nvidia变得足够大了,这就是 |
| 17 | in the performance overall of America's stock market. | 在美国股市总体业绩中。 |
| 18 | Nvidia现在是S&P500的8%. | |
| 19 | If I | 如果说 |
| 20 | go back to the start of 2023, it accounts for almost 15 cents of every dollar that the S&P 500 | 回到2023年初,它几乎占了每美元15美分的S&P500 |
| 21 | has returned to investors. | 已经回到投资者。 |
| 22 | So, you know, if you're invested in the US stock market, | 所以,你知道,如果你投资 在美国股票市场, |
| 23 | you're significantly exposed to this company, simply because it is so large now because the | 你接触到这家公司 仅仅是因为它现在这么大了 |
| 24 | demand for its chips is so great. | 对它的芯片的需求是如此之大。 |
| 25 | In your piece of sweet, you look at look at its market share, | 在你的甜点中,你看看它的市场份额, |
| 26 | tell us a little about how its market share is being eroded. | 告诉我们它的市场份额如何被侵蚀。 |
| 27 | I think maybe two to three years | 我想也许两到三年 |
| 28 | back, you would say that almost 80% of the AI chips that were sold in the market were from Nvidia. | 在市场上销售的AI芯片 几乎80%来自Nvidia |
| 29 | Now what has happened is roughly around 60% of the chips are from Nvidia, but 40% of the chips | 现在发生的情况是 大约60%的芯片来自Nvidia 但40%的芯片 |
| 30 | are coming from what is known as custom silicon. | 来自于所谓的定制硅。 |
| 31 | These are your chips that are made by software | 这些是你的芯片 是软件做的 |
| 32 | companies for their own internal needs. | 公司满足自身的内部需求。 |
| 33 | And by the end of the decade, the the number is going | 到了十年末, 数字将持续 |
| 34 | to be 50 50. | 50岁 |
| 35 | So half the chips will come from Nvidia, half of it will come mostly from these | 一半的筹码来自恩维迪亚 一半主要来自这些 |
| 36 | software companies. | 软件公司。 |
| 37 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 38 | Okay, so that that leads us very naturally, I think, into this question | 好吧,这样我们自然地,我认为,进入这个问题 |
| 39 | about the financial engineering and, and how it works. | 关于金融工程 和如何运作。 |
| 40 | So I think, I think we do need, though, | 所以,我认为,我们确实需要,虽然, |
| 41 | to go into an one example, just to get an idea of how this works. | 举个例子, 来了解事情是如何运作的。 |
| 42 | So pick one of the many examples, | 所以从很多例子中选一个 |
| 43 | Shailesh, and tell us how it works. | Shailesh,告诉我们它是如何工作的。 |
| 44 | And if I get lost, I'll sort of ask for help. | 如果我迷路了 我会请求帮助 |
| 45 | Let's pick one | 我们挑一个 |
| 46 | most public deals, which is OpenAI, which is a large AI lab. | 大部分公开交易,即OpenAI,是大型AI实验室. |
| 47 | It is building an eight gigawatt | 它正在建造八千兆瓦 |
| 48 | data center in Ohio. | 俄亥俄州数据中心. |
| 49 | Eight gigawatt is a very massive data center, the size of a couple of | 8千兆瓦是一个非常庞大的数据中心, 大小几千兆瓦 |
| 50 | different midsize nuclear reactors. | 不同的中型核反应堆。 |
| 51 | This is very expensive. | 这是非常昂贵的。 |
| 52 | Now, OpenAI is a very well funded | 现在,OpenAI是 一个非常充足的资金 |
| 53 | company, but it's also losing a lot of cash. | 公司,但它也损失了很多现金。 |
| 54 | So to be able to, for OpenAI to be able to afford | 所以为了能够让OpenAI买得起 |
| 55 | this, what Nvidia is doing is it is guaranteeing the lease on the land and power for that data | 这,Nvidia正在做的是 它正在保证土地的租赁 和权力 数据 |
| 56 | center for 20 years. | 中心20年。 |
| 57 | OpenAI将从Nvidia购买芯片. | |
| 58 | And the fact that Nvidia is using its | 而事实上,恩维迪亚正在使用它的 |
| 59 | balance sheet to guarantee that particular lease means that lenders are more likely to lend to | 保证特定租赁的资产负债表意味着放款人更有可能向下列机构贷款: |
| 60 | OpenAI的租赁。 | |
| 61 | If for some reason it defaults, OpenAI defaults and cannot make the | 如果出于某种原因它默认, OpenAI 默认且无法实现 |
| 62 | payment, then Nvidia can find another tenant for it. | 然后Nvidia可以找到另一个租户 |
| 63 | So you can right away see that there are a lot | 所以,你可以马上看到有很多 |
| 64 | of circularities here. | 这里的循环。 |
| 65 | And I didn't mention Nvidia has also invested $30 billion into OpenAI itself. | 我没有提到Nvidia也投资了300亿美元给OpenAI本身. |
| 66 | Yes, it's interesting because of course, why does Nvidia have to act as a financier here? | 是的,这很有趣 因为当然, 为什么Nvidia必须在这里做一个金融家? |
| 67 | Why can't | 为什么不能 |
| 68 | the markets provide capital in line with the vision of the company of what is necessary? | 市场提供资本符合公司对什么是必要的设想? |
| 69 | And essentially, the way to view it, I think, is Nvidia taking the view, an even more bullish view | 从本质上来说,我认为看待它的方式 是恩维迪亚取景, 一个更粗鲁的视角 |
| 70 | than the market at large about the amount of investment and infrastructure that is necessary, | 与整个市场有关的必要投资和基础设施的数量, |
| 71 | saying investors aren't going to finance at the scale that we think is necessary. | 说投资者不会以我们认为必要的规模融资。 |
| 72 | So, you know, | 所以,你知道吗, |
| 73 | we're massive. | 我们是巨大的。 |
| 74 | We've got a ton of resources and there's enormous revenue stream we can reinvest. | 我们拥有一吨资源 并且有巨大的收入流 我们可以再投资。 |
| 75 | We can do it ourselves. | 我们可以自己做。 |
| 76 | And in that sense, it's making the twin bet on itself, but also | 从这个意义上讲,它让双胞胎在自己身上下注 |
| 77 | on the economy at large. | 整个经济。 |
| 78 | And it's able to do both because of the scale of its underlying business. | 而由于其基础业务的规模,它能够做到两者兼有. |
| 79 | Shailesh, I want to ask you what Nvidia's defence against it. | 沙伊莱什 我想问你 Nvidia对它有什么辩护 |
| 80 | What do people say at the company and | 人们在公司和 |
| 81 | do you agree with them? | 你同意他们的意见吗? |
| 82 | Yes, the company is very sensitive to the word circular financing. | 是的,公司对循环融资很敏感 |
| 83 | And | 还有 |
| 84 | anytime you use it, they push back really hard. | 每当你使用它, 他们推回真的很辛苦。 |
| 85 | Now, my view is two things. | 现在,我的看法是两件事 |
| 86 | So first and foremost, | 所以,首先,首先, |
| 87 | there's no getting away from the fact that Nvidia invests in companies, puts equity investment, | Nvidia在公司投资 投资股本 |
| 88 | and then those companies end up buying chips from there. | 那些公司最后从那里买薯片 |
| 89 | So there's no getting away from that fact. | 因此,这是无法摆脱的事实。 |
| 90 | However, I think there are also some real differences. | 然而,我认为也有一些真正的分歧。 |
| 91 | First and foremost is Nvidia's | 首先是恩维迪亚的 |
| 92 | not loaning the money to these companies to buy the chips. | 不是借钱给这些公司买薯片 |
| 93 | It's essentially guaranteeing some supply | 它基本上保证了一些供应 |
| 94 | or some price that is out there in the future. | 或者是未来会付出的代价 |
| 95 | When Nvidia does this, it sells the chip and | 当Nvidia这么做时 它卖掉芯片 |
| 96 | recognises the revenue right up front versus these loans coming, these guarantees, if ever coming due | 承认前期收入 而不是贷款,这些担保,如果有到期 |
| 97 | later. | 等会 |
| 98 | So that's number one. | 所以这是第一。 |
| 99 | Number two is the fact that Nvidia's largest customers are really | 二是恩维迪亚最大的客户 |
| 100 | cashflow positive hyperscalers and are quite well cushioned. | 现金流正超规模,而且缓冲得很好。 |
| 101 | That is also important when | 这一点也很重要,当 |
| 102 | kind of drawing parallels to the dot com boom, because that is very different position from | 有点和点COM的繁荣平行, 因为那个位置与 |
| 103 | where Nvidia is. | 恩维迪亚在哪? |
| 104 | And lastly, I think is this balance sheet, which we can, I can just go on | 最后,我想这是资产负债表, 我们可以,我可以继续 |
| 105 | and on about because it holds around a hundred billion dollars in cash and liquid investments. | 大约是因为它持有 约1000亿美元的现金和流动投资。 |
| 106 | And this year is going to generate around 200 billion dollars in free cash flow. | 今年将产生大约2000亿美元的自由现金流。 |
| 107 | And that just | 刚刚 |
| 108 | number is going to increase. | 数字将会增加。 |
| 109 | So it's quite well cushioned to be able to kind of sustain these | 因此,它是相当好的缓冲 能够维持这些 |
| 110 | guarantees. | 保证。 |
| 111 | But yeah, I mean, there is a whiff of that, particularly when you invest in a company | 但是,是的,我的意思是, 有一种味道,特别是当你投资一个公司 |
| 112 | and they turn around and buy your chips. | 他们转身去买你的筹码 |
| 113 | I don't think there's any way you get around it. | 我不认为你有 任何方法绕过它。 |
| 114 | I want to finish up just by asking you all whether we think Nvidia's practices of this | 我想先问问大家 我们是否认为Nvidia的做法 |
| 115 | financial engineering is more likely to make a recession happen. | 金融工程更可能使衰退发生. |
| 116 | Shailesh, let's stop with you. | 沙伊莱什,让我们停止与你。 |
| 117 | I don't know if it'll make it happen, but it could definitely amplify some of the effects that happen | 我不知道它是否会让它发生, 但它肯定可以扩大一些 发生的效果 |
| 118 | because of it is quite possible that some deals that are happening do not need to happen. | 因为某些正在发生的交易很可能不需要发生。 |
| 119 | They're | 他们是 |
| 120 | such a large part of the AI boom and the AI boom is so important, especially via the wealth | 如此大一部分的AI繁荣和AI繁荣是如此重要,尤其是通过财富 |
| 121 | effect in the US stock market to the US economy, that I do think it's the case that if it's wrong | 在美国股市对美国经济的影响 我认为如果错了 |
| 122 | and faces serious problems, the economy will do worse on account of that. | 面对着严重的问题,经济将因此更加糟糕。 |
| 123 | It's macro economically | 这是宏观经济 |
| 124 | significant owing to the role it is playing. | 由于它正在发挥作用,这一点很重要。 |
| 125 | However, it's still the case that the number one | 不过,第一 |
| 126 | people who lose out in the event that this happens are Nvidia shareholders. | 如果发生这种情况 会输的人是Nvidia的股东 |
| 127 | They lose more than | 他们输的比输的还多 |
| 128 | anybody else. | 还有谁? |
| 129 | In the dot-com bust, which the historical analog people draw, the recession | 在历史模拟人物所画的点-com断裂中,衰退 |
| 130 | that followed that dot-com crash was quite shallow. | 之后的点 -com崩溃相当浅。 |
| 131 | It wasn't like the global financial crisis or | 这不像全球金融危机 |
| 132 | something where you truly had this deep systemic effect of the banking system on the economy. | 银行系统对经济的系统影响很深 |
| 133 | I think it's more likely to accelerate the AI boom than it is to cause a financial crash, | 我认为它更可能加速AI的繁荣 而不是造成金融崩溃, |
| 134 | but it's a sufficiently uncertain environment that both outcomes are definitely possible. | 但它是一个相当不确定的环境 两种结果都是绝对可能的。 |
| 135 | I think one of the difficulties is that if the demand does not materialize for AI, | 我认为其中的一个困难是 如果对AI的要求没有实现 |
| 136 | it could... Nvidia's role in the center of this ecosystem could really accelerate | 这可以... Nvidia在这个生态系统中心的作用 可能会大大加快 |
| 137 | the downfall. | 下坠。 |
| 138 | It would both be losing demand from its own customers as the companies it | 都会失去自己客户的需求 就像公司一样 |
| 139 | has invested in are starting to call due on those guarantees it's provided. | 已经投资了 开始要求提供这些保证 |
| 140 | It could be really | 这可能是真的 |
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