【思维方法】不懂第一性原理，就无法清晰思考
共 2 集
剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 【思维方法】不懂第一性原理，就无法清晰思考 中英字幕 | 18:49 |
| P2 | 【思维方法】不懂第一性原理，就无法清晰思考 无字幕 | 18:49 |
P1 · 【思维方法】不懂第一性原理，就无法清晰思考 p01 中英字幕 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | First principles thinking is the closest thing to a cheat code for life. | 第一条原则是生命中最接近欺骗规则的东西 |
| 0:05 | Successful people from Elon Musk all the way to Kobe Bryant | 从伊隆・穆斯克到神户・布赖恩特 |
| 0:09 | used it to break conventions and become one of a kind. | 利用它来破坏公约,成为一类。 |
| 0:13 | First principles make you stand apart. | 第一条原则让你分开 |
| 0:15 | I got to use it too from MIT all the way to billion-dollar boardrooms. | 我得用它 从麻省理工学院一直到亿元的董事会。 |
| 0:21 | If you're not careful, AI will make your thinking more average. | 如果你不小心,AI会让你的思维更加平均. |
| 0:25 | So I'll show you a four-step framework | 我给你们看一个四步框架 |
| 0:28 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}那么清楚的思考 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你遇见的人 | |
| 0:31 | walk away thinking you must be some kind of a genius. | 离开你以为你一定是个天才 |
| 0:34 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
展开字幕全文（296 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | First principles thinking is the closest thing to a cheat code for life. | 第一条原则是生命中最接近欺骗规则的东西 |
| 2 | Successful people from Elon Musk all the way to Kobe Bryant | 从伊隆・穆斯克到神户・布赖恩特 |
| 3 | used it to break conventions and become one of a kind. | 利用它来破坏公约,成为一类。 |
| 4 | First principles make you stand apart. | 第一条原则让你分开 |
| 5 | I got to use it too from MIT all the way to billion-dollar boardrooms. | 我得用它 从麻省理工学院一直到亿元的董事会。 |
| 6 | If you're not careful, AI will make your thinking more average. | 如果你不小心,AI会让你的思维更加平均. |
| 7 | So I'll show you a four-step framework | 我给你们看一个四步框架 |
| 8 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}那么清楚的思考 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你遇见的人 | |
| 9 | walk away thinking you must be some kind of a genius. | 离开你以为你一定是个天才 |
| 10 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 11 | For most of my last 12 years, | 在过去的12年里 |
| 12 | I slept for less than four, five, six hours a night. | 我每晚睡不到四、五、六小时 |
| 13 | I was the CEO of one of the top 20 fastest growing companies in the US. | 我是美国20个增长最快的公司之一的首席执行官 |
| 14 | I worked at a large public company where we were growing like crazy | 我在一家大型公共公司工作 我们像疯了一样成长 |
| 15 | and I traveled non-stop, worked past midnight. | 我不停地旅行,在午夜工作。 |
| 16 | So every single morning when I woke up, | 所以每天早上我醒来时 |
| 17 | I would always feel totally exhausted from the first minute | 我从一开始就觉得很疲惫 |
| 18 | and I would load up on coffee and I would be ready for the day. | 我会加载咖啡,我会准备好为今天。 |
| 19 | Then, about three years ago, | 然后,大约三年前, |
| 20 | I retired from full-time operator executive work | 我从全职操作员行政工作退休了 |
| 21 | and my schedule obviously changed dramatically. | 我的日程明显变了 |
| 22 | I had more control over my day. | 我对今天的控制力比较强 |
| 23 | I was on boards, I was advising, I was investing. | 我在董事会,我建议,我投资。 |
| 24 | But it wasn't 7 a.m. till midnight every single day. | 但每天午夜才7点 |
| 25 | But still, every morning I would wake up completely exhausted. | 但是每天早上 我都会完全疲惫地醒来 |
| 26 | That was strange. | 这很奇怪。 |
| 27 | So I reached out to a great pulmonologist and sleep specialist | 所以我联系了一位伟大的肺科医生和睡眠专家 |
| 28 | and they did a sleep study on me | 他们对我做了个睡眠研究 |
| 29 | where they put me in a lab and measured how I slept | 他们把我关进实验室 测量我睡得如何 |
| 30 | and what happened in my brain. | 和我大脑里发生的事 |
| 31 | The medical data completely blew my mind. | 医学数据让我心碎了 |
| 32 | The results showed that I was waking up | 结果显示我醒来了 |
| 33 | 34 times an hour every hour all through the night. | 整个晚上每小时34次 |
| 34 | The structure of my jaw is such that it was blocking my airway. | 我下巴的构造挡住了我的空气 |
| 35 | Now, I had no idea. | 现在,我不知道。 |
| 36 | I had spent years trying to normalize the problem by telling myself, | 我花了多年的时间 试图使问题正常化 通过告诉自己, |
| 37 | oh, I need more sleep or I have to go through this. | 哦,我需要更多的睡眠 或者我必须经历这个。 |
| 38 | It's the grind. | 是磨头. |
| 39 | I need more coffee. | 我需要多点咖啡 |
| 40 | I need to work less. | 我需要少工作一点。 |
| 41 | The moment I stopped perpetuating the story | 从我不再持续故事的那一刻起 |
| 42 | and deconstructed the system from first principles up, | 并解构系统 从最初的原则, |
| 43 | that fixed the root cause. | 这决定了根源 |
| 44 | And I realized the problem was not where I thought it was. | 我意识到问题不在我想的地方。 |
| 45 | That process of thinking is called the first principles thinking. | 这种思考过程被称为最初的原则思考。 |
| 46 | We're going to build a four-step framework here | 我们要在这里建立一个四步框架 |
| 47 | and learn how to use AI to drive that process | 并学习如何使用人工智能推动这一过程 |
| 48 | and how to build specific prompts for each of those steps. | 以及如何为每个步骤建立具体的提示。 |
| 49 | So it's a bit dense. | 所以有点稠密。 |
| 50 | So I'll make a PDF as well. | 我也会做一个PDF。 |
| 51 | So you can see all of it in one place. | 故能一地观一切法. |
| 52 | Link is in the description. | 链接在描述中. |
| 53 | Of course, it's free. | 当然,这是免费的。 |
| 54 | We never investigate our own assumptions. | 我们从来没有调查过自己的假设。 |
| 55 | We inherit them from our colleagues, | 我们从同事那里继承这些遗产, |
| 56 | our families, industries, experts, | 我们的家庭,行业,专家, |
| 57 | or our own previous experiences. | 或者我们以前的经历 |
| 58 | First principles want you to begin somewhere else. | 首要原则是让你从别的地方开始 |
| 59 | What do I actually know for sure? | 我究竟知道什么? 我确实知道什么? |
| 60 | What am I assuming? | 我该怎么想? |
| 61 | What else could produce this result? | 还能有什么结果? |
| 62 | Which part can I test? | 我能测试哪一部分? |
| 63 | Imagine buying a car, driving it once, and then throwing it away. | 想象一下,买辆车,开一次车,然后扔掉它。 |
| 64 | That would sound insane, right? | 听起来很疯狂,对吧? |
| 65 | But for decades, that was how most rockets worked. | 但数十年来,大多数火箭都是如此。 |
| 66 | Now, of course, rockets are not cars. | 当然,火箭不是汽车。 |
| 67 | The physics is far more unforgiving. | 物理学更令人难忘 |
| 68 | Obviously, it's called rocket science for a reason. | 显然,这被称为火箭科学是有原因的. |
| 69 | But Elon Musk questioned the very assumption. | 但伊隆·穆斯克对这个假设本身提出质疑. |
| 70 | Why couldn't the rocket land vertically and fly again? | 为什么火箭不能垂直降落,再飞? |
| 71 | That question changed the economics of space travel. | 这个问题改变了空间旅行的经济。 |
| 72 | So how do you start thinking in terms of first principles? | 那么,你是如何开始思考 首先的原则? |
| 73 | Maybe a couple of examples. | 也许有几个例子。 |
| 74 | Maybe you are thinking, I can't focus. | 也许你在想,我不能专心 |
| 75 | Well, start digging in. | 好了,开始挖。 |
| 76 | Is it focus or sleep or phone addiction or unclear tasks? | 是焦点还是睡眠 还是电话成瘾 还是任务不明确? |
| 77 | Too many priorities. | 优先事项太多。 |
| 78 | You're bored. | 你无聊。 |
| 79 | There's no deadline. | 没有期限 |
| 80 | Or are you doing work with no real impact? | 还是你的工作没有真正影响? |
| 81 | What is it? | 这是什么? |
| 82 | Things are about to get worse because AI is here. | 事情会变得更糟 因为AI在这里。 |
| 83 | Let's go there next. | 接下来我们去那里。 |
| 84 | Consider how large language models actually work. | 考虑一下大语言模型的实际作用. |
| 85 | They do not physically observe the universe we're in. | 他们没有观察我们所处的宇宙 |
| 86 | They don't have the idea of reality, at least not yet. | 他们还没有现实的想法 至少还没有 |
| 87 | And they don't have the real world experience. | 他们没有真实的世界经验。 |
| 88 | They're mathematical models that are very good at matching patterns. | 它们都是数学模型,非常擅长匹配图案. |
| 89 | So when we ask a question, it looks for the most likely thing that matches the pattern. | 所以,当我们问一个问题, 它寻找最有可能符合模式的东西。 |
| 90 | The most familiar answer seems like the best answer. | 最熟悉的答案似乎是最好的答案。 |
| 91 | That's the way AI is designed. | AI就是这样设计的. |
| 92 | And the better AI sounds, the less you will check. | 人工智能的声音越好, 你就越不会检查。 |
| 93 | A general purpose AI model does not naturally start from first principles. | 通用AI模式并非自然从第一原则开始. |
| 94 | That's why you have to force AI to think differently. | 这就是为什么你不得不强迫AI 不同的想法。 |
| 95 | That's the four-part framework. | 即为四段框架. |
| 96 | We'll walk through each step and we will also construct prompts for each step. | 我们将走遍每个步骤,我们也会为每个步骤构建提示. |
| 97 | So let's go to the first step, which is D for decompose. | 因此,让我们走第一步,即D分解。 |
| 98 | Let's say if you want to start a business or even something simpler. | 假设你想创业 甚至更简单点 |
| 99 | Let's say you want to start a YouTube channel. | 假设你想开个YouTube频道 |
| 100 | If you talk to the experts and say, hey, I want to start a YouTube channel. | 如果你跟专家说 我想开个YouTube频道 |
| 101 | What do I need? | 我还需要什么? |
| 102 | What are they going to say? | 他们要说什么? |
| 103 | They'll say, oh, well, you need a studio. | 他们会说 你需要一个工作室 |
| 104 | You need a professional camera. | 你需要一个专业的相机。 |
| 105 | Good lighting. | 良好的照明。 |
| 106 | You need an editor. | 你需要编辑 |
| 107 | You need a creative director, a production agency. | 你需要一个创意总监,一个生产机构。 |
| 108 | And sure, if you can afford all of that, those things may save you some time and improve the final product | 当然,如果你能负担得起这一切, 这些东西可能节省你一些时间, 并改进最终产品 |
| 109 | so you can focus on content creation. | 这样你就可以专注于内容创建. |
| 110 | But that's all conventional wisdom. | 但这都是传统的智慧 |
| 111 | What if you boiled it down to its essential components? | 如果你把它煮成基本成分呢? |
| 112 | Decomposed. | 释迦. |
| 113 | What do you really need? | 你真正需要的是什么? 需要吗? |
| 114 | Just two things, a phone and a story. | 只有两件事 一个电话和一个故事 |
| 115 | You can start tomorrow. | 你可以明天开始 |
| 116 | You can start tonight. | 你可以从今晚开始。 |
| 117 | The same idea applies to starting a company. | 同样的想法也适用于公司的成立。 |
| 118 | You can raise millions from some investors. | 你可以从一些投资者那里筹到几百万 |
| 119 | You can rent a swanky office in New York City. | 你可以在纽约租个豪华的办公室 |
| 120 | But there are thousands of successful companies that got started without any of that. | 但有上千个成功的公司 没有这些。 |
| 121 | So this step of decomposing is really about seeing the parts of the machinery. | 因此,这个分解步骤 真的是关于看到机器的部分。 |
| 122 | This is where AI is going to be tremendously useful. | AI将在这里发挥极大的作用。 |
| 123 | But remember that these models are also trained to be very eager and very helpful. | 但记住,这些模型也经过了训练,变得非常热心,很有帮助. |
| 124 | So the moment they see a problem, they would want to solve it. | 所以,一旦他们看到一个问题, 他们就会想解决这个问题。 |
| 125 | You don't want that. | 你不希望这样。 |
| 126 | You want them to break the problem down into its essential parts. | 你想让他们把问题分解成关键部分 |
| 127 | Let's apply our friendly framework, AIM, to create a prompt. | 让我们运用我们的友好框架,AIM, 创造一个迅速。 |
| 128 | I've covered the idea of AIM in this video before somewhere. | 我之前在某处的录像里 已经报道了AIM的想法 |
| 129 | But if you haven't seen it, AIM stands for Actor Input Mission. | 但是如果你还没有看到,AIM代表演员输入任务. |
| 130 | Tell the model who it's acting as, give it the context or data it needs, | 告诉模型是谁 给它所需的背景或数据 |
| 131 | and then tell it what done looks like. | 然后告诉它做了什么样子。 |
| 132 | So here's the prompt. | 即时通知 |
| 133 | Act as a world-class first principles analyst. | 充当世界一流的第一原则分析师. |
| 134 | Your job in this step is decomposition only. | 你在这一步的工作只是分解 |
| 135 | You're penalized for introducing advice, solutions, assumptions, or standard playbooks. | 你因为介绍建议、解决方案、假设或标准游戏本而受到惩罚。 |
| 136 | Be my thought partner. | 做我的思想伴侣。 |
| 137 | Do not suck up to me. | 别给我吹箫。 |
| 138 | Intention. | 意为. |
| 139 | I want to understand exactly what this problem is made up of. | 我想知道这个问题的构成。 |
| 140 | My problem is, and then you will insert your problem, | 我的问题是, 然后你会插入你的问题, |
| 141 | if the stated problem appears to contain a hidden or a deeper question, | 如果所述问题似乎包含一个隐藏或更深层的问题, |
| 142 | identify it in one sentence before decomposing the current problem. | 在解析当前问题之前,请在一句话中注明。 |
| 143 | Ask whether I want you to decompose the original problem or the deeper one. | 问问我是要你分解 最初的问题还是更深的问题 |
| 144 | Do not continue until I choose. | 在我选择之前不要继续 |
| 145 | Do not replace or reframe my problem until I tell you. | 在我告诉你之前 不要取代或重新定义我的问题 |
| 146 | So you see, you're trying to constrain what AI needs to focus on. | 所以,你看,你试图限制 AI需要专注于。 |
| 147 | And the third part is mission. | 第三部分是任务 |
| 148 | Braid the problem into its smallest useful constituent parts. | 把问题编成最小的有用成分 |
| 149 | Show the hierarchy clearly. | 明显分级. |
| 150 | The overall problem is major components and the smaller elements inside or under each component. | 总的问题是主要组成部分和每个组成部分内部或下面较小的组成部分。 |
| 151 | Use only dimensions that are relevant, | 只使用相关的维度, |
| 152 | such as people, process steps, time, resources, costs, etc. | 例如人员、流程步骤、时间、资源、费用等。 |
| 153 | For each component, briefly explain what it contains and how it connects to the larger problem. | 对于每个部分,简要说明其中包含的内容以及它如何与更大的问题联系起来. |
| 154 | Stop decomposing when going down further would no longer improve my understanding. | 继续下去的时候停止腐烂 将无法改善我的理解。 |
| 155 | Do not evaluate the components. | 不评估组件。 |
| 156 | Do not recommend solutions. | 不建议解决办法。 |
| 157 | Only show me what parts the problem is made up of. | 只是告诉我问题是由什么构成的 |
| 158 | So that was your first prompt. | 所以这是你的第一个提示。 |
| 159 | And I'm sorry if it was a bit long or complicated, | 我很抱歉,如果这是 有点长或复杂, |
| 160 | but I'm hoping that it will give you clarity on how to boil down any problem into its essential parts. | 但我希望这能让你明白 如何将任何问题 归结为关键部分 |
| 161 | That's part of the first principles thinking. | 这是第一个原则思考的一部分。 |
| 162 | And also how to make sure that AI remains focused on the task that you give it. | 以及如何确保AI继续专注于你所赋予的任务. |
| 163 | Now, let's go to step two where we look at each of these parts and see whether it's a fact or an assumption. | 现在,我们走第二步,看看每个部分,看看这是事实还是假设。 |
| 164 | The most important first principle skill is auditing the assumptions. | 最重要的第一主要技能是审计假设。 |
| 165 | After the Second World War, | 二战后, |
| 166 | American car companies had enormous factories that produced big American cars for the big American market. | 美国汽车公司拥有巨大的工厂,为美国大市场生产大型美国汽车. |
| 167 | Now, Toyota was a very small company and they were based in Japan. | 现在,丰田是一个非常小的公司 他们的总部设在日本。 |
| 168 | And we're talking about after World War Two. | 二战结束后,我们又在讨论这个问题。 |
| 169 | So Japan was recovering much less capital, fewer resources and a much smaller market. | 因此,日本的资本、资源和市场都在减少。 |
| 170 | So copying Detroit would not have worked for Toyota. | 所以抄袭底特律不会在丰田工作 |
| 171 | Toyota couldn't have afforded it. | 丰田无法提供它。 |
| 172 | So they audited the assumptions underneath the idea of mass production itself. | 因此,他们审计了大规模生产本身的假设。 |
| 173 | Why make big cars? | 为什么做大车? |
| 174 | Why not small cars? | 为什么不小车? |
| 175 | Why produce them in huge batches? | 为什么要大量生产? |
| 176 | Why do you need to hold such a large inventory? | 为什么你需要 拥有如此庞大的库存? |
| 177 | What do you do when there is a defect? | 当有缺陷时你会怎么做? |
| 178 | Are there different better ways to organize the processes and people? | 是否有不同的更好的方法来组织进程和人员? |
| 179 | That thinking became the foundation of just-in-time production. | 这种想法成为了及时生产的基础。 |
| 180 | And something that became so dramatically successful that American companies started implementing that. | 一些非常成功的东西, 以至于美国公司开始实施。 |
| 181 | And over time, Toyota overtook GM to become the world's largest automaker. | 随着时间的推移,丰田超越了GM成为世界上最大的汽车制造商. |
| 182 | And, you know, years later, I feel like history is repeating itself | 几年后,我觉得历史在重演 |
| 183 | because then came Tesla that questioned the assumptions made by Toyota in all car makers. | 因为后来特斯拉来了,他质疑丰田在所有汽车制造商中所作的假设. |
| 184 | Because Tesla asked, why do you even need a combustion engine at all? | 因为特斯拉问,你为什么甚至需要一台燃烧机? |
| 185 | And by 2020, Tesla had overtaken Toyota as the world's most valuable automaker. | 而到2020年,特斯拉已经超越丰田成为世界上最有价值的汽车制造商. |
| 186 | Most conventions that we cling to are just assumptions that have survived. | 我们所坚持的大多数公约只是幸存下来的假设。 |
| 187 | But true innovation requires that you break the rule, | 但真正的创新需要你打破规则, |
| 188 | that you ignore the conventions. | 以致你们无视惯例。 |
| 189 | And here's where AI can be a very valuable partner. | 在这里AI可以成为一个非常宝贵的合作伙伴. |
| 190 | You can use the model to perform that audit that we're talking about. | 你可以用模型来进行我们所说的审计。 |
| 191 | Here's the prompt to do that. | 这是这样做的提示。 |
| 192 | And I'll just read the first part of the prompt and then we'll just put the entire prompt on the screen. | 然后把整个提示放在屏幕上。 |
| 193 | You can pause and take a screenshot or come back to it anytime you want. | 你可以停下来拍截图 或者随时回来 |
| 194 | And of course, all of this is going to be in a nicely formatted PDF. | 当然,所有这一切都将是一个很好的PDF格式。 |
| 195 | You can get it for free. | 免费的 |
| 196 | All right, here's the prompt. | 好吧,这是提示。 |
| 197 | Actor. | 演员 |
| 198 | Act as a skeptical red team analyst whose only job is to uncover and question inherited assumptions. | 作为怀疑的红色团队分析师 唯一的工作就是发现和质疑继承的假设 |
| 199 | Assume that every obvious part of the problem may be hiding a convention until evidence proves otherwise. | 假设问题的每一明显部分都可能隐藏着一项公约,直到证据证明并非如此。 |
| 200 | Intention. | 意为. |
| 201 | I want to know which of the building blocks above are assumptions. | 我想知道上面哪些组成部分是假设。 |
| 202 | And so on. | 及诸众生. |
| 203 | So this is the entire prompt. | 这就是整个提示。 |
| 204 | Now, once you identify the assumption, you may feel like you may have destroyed the entire solution that you were thinking about. | 现在,一旦你确定了这个假设, 你可能觉得你 可能已经摧毁了整个解决方案 你在想什么。 |
| 205 | And that's a good thing because now you finally have the freedom to build a better solution from the ground up. | 这是件好事,因为现在你终于有 从地上建立更好的解决方案的自由。 |
| 206 | And for that, we go to the next step, which is R for recombining. | 为此,我们走下一个步骤,即R进行重组。 |
| 207 | I think music gives us the simplest way to understand the idea of recombination. | 我认为音乐给了我们最简单的理解重组思想的方法. |
| 208 | Most modern Western music is built from 12 notes. | 大部分现代西方音乐都是由12个音符所建. |
| 209 | If you trained in Western music, that's your alphabet. | 如果你接受过西方音乐的训练 那就是你的字母表 |
| 210 | You don't spend your entire life searching for a secret 13th note. | 你不花一辈子 寻找一个秘密的第13个音符。 |
| 211 | But if you came from, let's say, Indian classical music tradition, I came from there or Arabic music, | 但如果你来自印度古典音乐传统 我来自那里或者阿拉伯音乐 |
| 212 | they would use pitches that fall between the 12 notes of a Western piano. | 他们用的是西方钢琴的十二个音符之间的投球 |
| 213 | So if you only listen to, let's say, American pop all your life and you suddenly hear Arabic music, | 所以,如果你只听,让我们说, 美国流行你的一生, 你突然听到阿拉伯音乐, |
| 214 | it may sound to you as if it's out of tune. | 听起来你好像不太对劲 |
| 215 | At first, at least. | 一开始,至少。 |
| 216 | But it's not. | 然则不然. |
| 217 | It's just that your ear is set to a different set of rules. | 只是你的耳朵被设定了不同的规则 |
| 218 | The power of convention. | 约法之力. |
| 219 | But even with those 12 notes, you can recombine them into millions and millions of songs and composition. | 但是,即使有了这12个音符,你也可以把它们重新组合成上百万的歌曲和组成. |
| 220 | Bach used them very differently than the Beatles. | 巴赫使用它们与披头士乐队有很大不同. |
| 221 | And Beatles used them very differently than Beyonce. | 而披头士们使用它们与碧昂斯非常不同. |
| 222 | They all use the same 12 notes to create different magic. | 他们都使用相同的12个音符来创造不同的魔法. |
| 223 | Same ingredients, millions of dishes. | 同样的配料,几百万的盘子。 |
| 224 | That's where recombination comes into play. | 这就是重组开始发挥作用的地方. |
| 225 | Innovation is not about looking for that secret 13th note. | 创新不是寻找第13个秘密 |
| 226 | You just need the right combination of the 12 notes that you already have. | 你只需要你已有的12个音符的正确组合 |
| 227 | E.I. | 爱丽丝 |
| 228 | is unusually powerful here because it can search millions of combinations at a scale no human being can. | 因为它能以人类无法达到的规模 搜索数百万的组合 |
| 229 | Here's the R prompt. | 这是R提示 |
| 230 | I'm just going to put it on the screen. | 便拟上屏. |
| 231 | And of course, there is a PDF link. | 当然,有一个PDF链接。 |
| 232 | Here's the actor, the intention. | 这是演员,目的 |
| 233 | Here's the mission. | 这是任务 |
| 234 | Now you have a handful of possibilities. | 现在,你有一些可能性。 |
| 235 | There are ways to combine these ideas. | 有一些方法可以将这些想法结合起来。 |
| 236 | But they're still all theoretical. | 但它们仍然是理论性的. |
| 237 | The final step is where the practical world gets to vote. | 最后一步是实际世界能够投票的地方。 |
| 238 | That's our fourth step E for experiment. | 这是我们实验的第四步E。 |
| 239 | You know, James Dyson, who was an inventor, noticed that these vacuum cleaners lost suction as their bags filled with dust. | James Dyson是个发明家 他注意到这些吸尘器在装满尘土的袋子中 失去了吸尘能力 |
| 240 | And it took him five thousand one hundred and twenty seven prototypes over five years before he could reach his breakthrough design. | 他花了5千12万7的原型 花了5年时间 才有突破性的设计 |
| 241 | And it's the same reason Google used to run millions of experiments on what exact shade of blue color would encourage people to click on links. | 这也是Google 用来进行数百万个实验的原因, 研究蓝色的阴影会鼓励人们点击链接。 |
| 242 | The first principle thinking is hard. | 第一个原则思考是艰难的。 |
| 243 | It is counterintuitive, but it's still a clean process until the fourth step. | 它具有反直觉,但它仍然是一个干净的过程,直到第四步。 |
| 244 | The real world experiments are inherently messy. | 真实世界的实验本来就很乱 |
| 245 | They're hard. | 他们很难。 |
| 246 | They're risky and they have real consequences if you fail. | 如果你失败了,他们会有真正的后果 |
| 247 | That's why AI can be a very good simulator. | 这就是为什么AI可以是一个非常好的模拟器. |
| 248 | You can use AI to design these experiments for you. | 你可以用人工智能为你设计这些实验. |
| 249 | Here's a prompt for it. | 这里有个提示 |
| 250 | Here's the actor act as a skeptical scientist. | 这是演员扮演怀疑论科学家. |
| 251 | Your job is to help me design the cheapest, fastest way to find out whether this holds up before it cost me anything real in time, money, effort, reputation. | 你的工作是帮助我设计出最便宜,最快的方法 来找出这是否维持下去 以免我失去时间,金钱,努力,名声 |
| 252 | Don't try to sell me the idea. | 不要试图卖我的想法。 |
| 253 | Give me the test. | 给我测试。 |
| 254 | I could actually run. | 我实际上可以跑。 |
| 255 | So that's the actor. | 这就是演员。 |
| 256 | Here's the intention. | 这是目的 |
| 257 | Here's the mission. | 这是任务 |
| 258 | And notice what it says at the bottom of the mission part of the prompt. | 注意在任务底部的提示部分 |
| 259 | And I like it a lot for each test. | 我喜欢每个测试。 |
| 260 | Tell me what result would rule that solution out and what result would keep it alive and what I'd learn from the problem. | 告诉我什么结果可以排除这个解决方案,什么结果可以让它活着,以及我从问题中学到什么. |
| 261 | Either way, give me your view on which building block to revisit if all the tests fail. | 无论哪种方式,给我你的观点 哪一块块 重新审视,如果所有测试都失败。 |
| 262 | And the reason I like it is because the whole point of first principles thinking is to keep us learning about where our failures and successes are | 我之所以喜欢它 是因为第一个原则的全部要点 是让我们知道 我们的失败和成功之处 |
| 263 | and what they're caused by. | 和他们的原因 |
| 264 | So yay, we made it. | 所以,我们做到了。 |
| 265 | It was a bit dense, but that was there. | 它有点稠密,但那是在那里。 |
| 266 | And it's yours. | 这是你的 |
| 267 | Make it better. | 使其更妙. |
| 268 | Share it with others. | 和别人分享 |
| 269 | Make sure every prompt makes the machine show its work to you. | 确保每个提示 使机器显示它的工作给你。 |
| 270 | And by the way, make sure that you are the decision maker. | 顺便说一句 确保你是决策者 |
| 271 | AI does the work. | AI负责工作。 |
| 272 | AI shows you the work. | AI给你看的作品。 |
| 273 | You keep the judgment. | 你继续判断 |
| 274 | Now, one point I would make about first principles and the framework. | 现在,我要谈一点关于第一原则和框架。 |
| 275 | They won't give you a surefire way to avoid failure. | 他们不会为避免失败而给你一个必火的方法 |
| 276 | The goal is not to be right every time. | 目标不是每次都对 |
| 277 | It is to learn quickly why you are wrong. | 而是要尽快了解你为什么错了 |
| 278 | Martin Short has been one of the most talented comedic actors for, I don't know, more than 40 years. | 马丁 肖特是40多年来 最有才华的喜剧演员之一 |
| 279 | And yet, most of his movies have flopped. | 然而,他的大部分电影都失败了。 |
| 280 | But he's still one of the most successful comedians in North America today. | 但他仍然是今天北美最成功的喜剧演员之一. |
| 281 | And he was talking to a young comedian. | 他和一个年轻的喜剧演员说话 |
| 282 | He gave him a wonderful advice. | 他给了他一个很好的建议。 |
| 283 | He said, in this business, you fail 98% of the time. | 他说,在这个行业, 你失败98%的时间。 |
| 284 | Those are great odds. | 这是巨大的概率。 |
| 285 | I love that line. | 我喜欢这条线。 |
| 286 | Most of what I have tried in my life didn't work either. | 我这辈子尝试过的大部分 也没有成功 |
| 287 | My failure rate is right around there. | 我的失败率就在附近 |
| 288 | You know, yours might be too. | 你知道,你的也许也是。 |
| 289 | Even if you have such a terrible hit rate as mine, | 即使你有这么可怕的打击率 像我一样, |
| 290 | the math eventually still works out in your favor. | 数学最终还是有利于你的 |
| 291 | Because when you find just that 2% that actually works, | 因为当你找到只有2%的 实际工作, |
| 292 | it can change the entire trajectory of your life. | 它能改变你一生的轨迹 |
| 293 | You don't need 100 wins. | 你不需要赢100块 |
| 294 | You only need one. | 你只需要一个。 |
| 295 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 296 | And I love you. | 我爱你 |
该视频共有字幕 296 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格
P2 · 【思维方法】不懂第一性原理，就无法清晰思考 p02 无字幕 (P2)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | First principles thinking is the closest thing to a cheat code for life. | 第一条原则是生命中最接近欺骗规则的东西 |
| 0:05 | Successful people from Elon Musk all the way to Kobe Bryant used it to break conventions and become one of a kind. | 从伊隆·穆斯克一直到神户·布赖恩特的成功的人用它来打破会议,成为一类人. |
| 0:13 | First principles make you stand apart. | 第一条原则让你分开 |
| 0:15 | I got to use it too, from MIT all the way to billion-dollar boardrooms. | 我也得用它 从麻省理工到亿元的董事会 |
| 0:21 | If you're not careful, AI will make your thinking more average. | 如果你不小心,AI会让你的思维更加平均. |
| 0:25 | So I'll show you a four-step framework to think so clearly that people who you meet walk away thinking you must be some kind of a genius. | 所以,我给你们展示一个四步框架,让大家清晰地思考一下, 你遇见的人会觉得你一定是个天才。 |
| 0:34 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 0:35 | For most of my last 12 years, I slept for less than four, five, six hours a night. | 在过去的12年里 我每晚睡不到4、5、6小时 |
| 0:43 | I was the CEO of one of the top 20 fastest growing companies in the US. | 我是美国20个增长最快的公司之一的首席执行官 |
| 0:48 | I worked at a large public company where we were growing like crazy. | 我在一家大型公共公司工作 在那里,我们成长像疯了。 |
展开字幕全文（265 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | First principles thinking is the closest thing to a cheat code for life. | 第一条原则是生命中最接近欺骗规则的东西 |
| 2 | Successful people from Elon Musk all the way to Kobe Bryant used it to break conventions and become one of a kind. | 从伊隆·穆斯克一直到神户·布赖恩特的成功的人用它来打破会议,成为一类人. |
| 3 | First principles make you stand apart. | 第一条原则让你分开 |
| 4 | I got to use it too, from MIT all the way to billion-dollar boardrooms. | 我也得用它 从麻省理工到亿元的董事会 |
| 5 | If you're not careful, AI will make your thinking more average. | 如果你不小心,AI会让你的思维更加平均. |
| 6 | So I'll show you a four-step framework to think so clearly that people who you meet walk away thinking you must be some kind of a genius. | 所以,我给你们展示一个四步框架,让大家清晰地思考一下, 你遇见的人会觉得你一定是个天才。 |
| 7 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 8 | For most of my last 12 years, I slept for less than four, five, six hours a night. | 在过去的12年里 我每晚睡不到4、5、6小时 |
| 9 | I was the CEO of one of the top 20 fastest growing companies in the US. | 我是美国20个增长最快的公司之一的首席执行官 |
| 10 | I worked at a large public company where we were growing like crazy. | 我在一家大型公共公司工作 在那里,我们成长像疯了。 |
| 11 | And I traveled nonstop, worked past midnight. | 我不停地旅行,在午夜工作。 |
| 12 | So every single morning when I woke up, I would always feel totally exhausted from the first minute. | 所以每次早上我醒来的时候 我都会感到从第一分钟开始就完全疲惫不堪 |
| 13 | And I would load up on coffee and I would be ready for the day. | 我会加载 咖啡,我会准备好的一天。 |
| 14 | Then about three years ago, I retired from full-time operator executive work. | 大约三年前 我从全职运营员 执行工作退休 |
| 15 | And my schedule obviously changed dramatically. | 我的时间表显然发生了巨大变化。 |
| 16 | I had more control over my day. | 我对今天的控制力比较强 |
| 17 | I was on boards, I was advising, I was investing. | 我在董事会,我建议,我投资。 |
| 18 | But it wasn't 7 a.m. till midnight every single day. | 但每天午夜才7点 |
| 19 | But still, every morning I would wake up completely exhausted. | 但是每天早上 我都会完全疲惫地醒来 |
| 20 | That was strange. | 这很奇怪。 |
| 21 | So I reached out to a great pulmonologist and sleep specialist. | 所以我联系了一位伟大的肺科医生和睡眠专家。 |
| 22 | And they did a sleep study on me where they put me in a lab and measured how I slept and what happened in my brain. | 他们对我做了一个睡眠研究, 在那里,他们把我放在实验室里, 并衡量我睡得如何, 以及在我的大脑里发生了什么。 |
| 23 | The medical data completely blew my mind. | 医学数据让我心碎了 |
| 24 | The results showed that I was waking up 34 times an hour every hour all through the night. | 结果显示,我整个晚上每小时醒来34次。 |
| 25 | The structure of my jaw is such that it was blocking my airway. | 我下巴的构造挡住了我的空气 |
| 26 | Now, I had no idea. | 现在,我不知道。 |
| 27 | I had spent years trying to normalize the problem by telling myself, oh, I need more sleep or I have to go through this. | 我花了好几年时间 试图使问题正常化 通过告诉自己, 哦,我需要更多的睡眠 或者我必须经历这个。 |
| 28 | It's the grind. | 是磨头. |
| 29 | I need more coffee. | 我需要多点咖啡 |
| 30 | I need to work less. | 我需要少工作一点。 |
| 31 | The moment I stopped perpetuating the story and deconstructed the system from first principles up, that fixed the root cause. | 我不再将故事延续下去, 并且把系统从最初的原则上解析出来, 这决定了根源。 |
| 32 | And I realized the problem was not where I thought it was. | 我意识到问题不在我想的地方。 |
| 33 | That process of thinking is called the first principles thinking. | 这种思考过程被称为最初的原则思考。 |
| 34 | We're going to build a four-step framework here and learn how to use AI to drive that process and how to build specific prompts for each of those steps. | 我们要在这里建立一个四步框架,学习如何使用AI来推动这一过程,以及如何为其中的每一个步骤建立具体的提示. |
| 35 | So it's a bit dense, so I'll make a PDF as well. | 所以它有点稠密,所以我也会做一个PDF。 |
| 36 | So you can see all of it in one place. | 故能一地观一切法. |
| 37 | Link is in the description. | 链接在描述中. |
| 38 | Of course, it's free. | 当然,这是免费的。 |
| 39 | We never investigate our own assumptions. | 我们从来没有调查过自己的假设。 |
| 40 | We inherit them from our colleagues, our families, industries, experts, or our own previous experiences. | 我们从我们的同事、我们的家庭、工业、专家或我们自己以前的经验中继承这些经验。 |
| 41 | First principles want you to begin somewhere else. | 首要原则是让你从别的地方开始 |
| 42 | What do I actually know? | 我到底知道什麽? |
| 43 | For short, what am I assuming? | 简而言之,我该怎么想? |
| 44 | What else could produce this result? | 还能有什么结果? |
| 45 | Which part can I test? | 我能测试哪一部分? |
| 46 | Imagine buying a car, driving it once, and then throwing it away. | 想象一下,买辆车,开一次车,然后扔掉它。 |
| 47 | That would sound insane, right? | 听起来很疯狂,对吧? |
| 48 | But for decades, that was how most rockets worked. | 但数十年来,大多数火箭都是如此。 |
| 49 | Now, of course, rockets are not cars. | 当然,火箭不是汽车。 |
| 50 | The physics is far more unforgiving. | 物理学更令人难忘 |
| 51 | Obviously, it's called rocket science for a reason. | 显然,这被称为火箭科学是有原因的. |
| 52 | But Elon Musk questioned the very assumption. | 但伊隆·穆斯克对这个假设本身提出质疑. |
| 53 | Why couldn't the rocket land vertically and fly again? | 为什么火箭不能垂直降落,再飞? |
| 54 | That question changed the economics of space travel. | 这个问题改变了空间旅行的经济。 |
| 55 | So how do you start thinking in terms of first principles? | 那么,你是如何开始思考 首先的原则? |
| 56 | Maybe a couple of examples. | 也许有几个例子。 |
| 57 | Maybe you are thinking, I can't focus. | 也许你在想,我不能专心 |
| 58 | Well, start digging in. | 好了,开始挖。 |
| 59 | Is it focus or sleep or phone addiction or unclear tasks? | 是焦点还是睡眠 还是电话成瘾 还是任务不明确? |
| 60 | Too many priorities? | 太多优先事项了? |
| 61 | You're bored. | 你无聊。 |
| 62 | There's no deadline. | 没有期限 |
| 63 | Or are you doing work with no real impact? | 还是你的工作没有真正影响? |
| 64 | What is it? | 这是什么? |
| 65 | Things are about to get worse because AI is here. | 事情会变得更糟 因为AI在这里。 |
| 66 | Let's go there next. | 接下来我们去那里。 |
| 67 | Consider how large language models actually work. | 考虑一下大语言模型的实际作用. |
| 68 | They do not physically observe the universe we're in. | 他们没有观察我们所处的宇宙 |
| 69 | They don't have the idea of reality, at least not yet. | 他们还没有现实的想法 至少还没有 |
| 70 | And they don't have the real world experience. | 他们没有真实的世界经验。 |
| 71 | They're mathematical models that are very good at matching patterns. | 它们都是数学模型,非常擅长匹配图案. |
| 72 | So when we ask a question, it looks for the most likely thing that matches the pattern. | 所以,当我们问一个问题, 它寻找最有可能符合模式的东西。 |
| 73 | The most familiar answer seems like the best answer. | 最熟悉的答案似乎是最好的答案。 |
| 74 | That's the way AI is designed. | AI就是这样设计的. |
| 75 | And the better AI sounds, the less you will check. | 人工智能的声音越好, 你就越不会检查。 |
| 76 | A general purpose AI model does not naturally start from first principles. | 通用AI模式并非自然从第一原则开始. |
| 77 | That's why you have to force AI to think differently. | 这就是为什么你不得不强迫AI 不同的想法。 |
| 78 | That's the four-part framework. | 即为四段框架. |
| 79 | We'll walk through each step and we will also construct prompts for each step. | 我们将走遍每个步骤,我们也会为每个步骤构建提示. |
| 80 | So let's go to the first step, which is D for decompose. | 因此,让我们走第一步,即D分解。 |
| 81 | Let's say if you want to start a business or even something simpler. | 假设你想创业 甚至更简单点 |
| 82 | Let's say you want to start a YouTube channel. | 假设你想开个YouTube频道 |
| 83 | If you talk to the experts and say, hey, I want to start a YouTube channel. | 如果你跟专家说 我想开个YouTube频道 |
| 84 | What do I need? | 我还需要什么? |
| 85 | What are they going to say? | 他们要说什么? |
| 86 | They'll say, oh, well, you need a studio. | 他们会说 你需要一个工作室 |
| 87 | You need a professional camera. | 你需要一个专业的相机。 |
| 88 | Good lighting. | 良好的照明。 |
| 89 | You need an editor. | 你需要编辑 |
| 90 | You need a creative director, a production agency. | 你需要一个创意总监,一个生产机构。 |
| 91 | And sure, if you can afford all of that, those things may save you some time | 当然,如果你能买得起这些东西, 这些东西也许可以节省你一些时间 |
| 92 | and improve the final product so you can focus on content creation. | 并改进最终产品,从而可以专注于内容创建. |
| 93 | But that's all conventional wisdom. | 但这都是传统的智慧 |
| 94 | What if you boiled it down to its essential components, decomposed? | 如果你把它煮成基本成分 腐烂了呢? |
| 95 | What do you really need? | 你真正需要的是什么? 需要吗? |
| 96 | Just two things, a phone and a story. | 只有两件事 一个电话和一个故事 |
| 97 | You can start tomorrow. | 你可以明天开始 |
| 98 | You can start tonight. | 你可以从今晚开始。 |
| 99 | The same idea applies to starting a company. | 同样的想法也适用于公司的成立。 |
| 100 | You can raise millions from some investors. | 你可以从一些投资者那里筹到几百万 |
| 101 | You can rent a swanky office in New York City. | 你可以在纽约租个豪华的办公室 |
| 102 | But there are thousands of successful companies that got started without any of that. | 但有上千个成功的公司 没有这些。 |
| 103 | So this step of decomposing is really about seeing the parts of the machinery. | 因此,这个分解步骤 真的是关于看到机器的部分。 |
| 104 | This is where AI is going to be tremendously useful. | AI将在这里发挥极大的作用。 |
| 105 | But remember that these models are also trained to be very eager and very helpful. | 但记住,这些模型也经过了训练,变得非常热心,很有帮助. |
| 106 | So the moment they see a problem, they would want to solve it. | 所以,一旦他们看到一个问题, 他们就会想解决这个问题。 |
| 107 | You don't want that. | 你不希望这样。 |
| 108 | You want them to break the problem down into its essential parts. | 你想让他们把问题分解成关键部分 |
| 109 | Let's apply our friendly framework, AIM, to create a prompt. | 让我们运用我们的友好框架,AIM, 创造一个迅速。 |
| 110 | I've covered the idea of AIM in this video before, somewhere. | 我之前在录影带里 讲过AIM的想法 |
| 111 | But if you haven't seen it, AIM stands for Actor Input Mission. | 但是如果你还没有看到,AIM代表演员输入任务. |
| 112 | Tell the model who it's acting as, give it the context or data it needs, | 告诉模型是谁 给它所需的背景或数据 |
| 113 | and then tell it what done looks like. | 然后告诉它做了什么样子。 |
| 114 | So here's the prompt. | 即时通知 |
| 115 | Act as a world-class first principles analyst. | 充当世界一流的第一原则分析师. |
| 116 | Your job in this step is decomposition only. | 你在这一步的工作只是分解 |
| 117 | You're penalized for introducing advice, solutions, assumptions, or standard playbooks. | 你因为介绍建议、解决方案、假设或标准游戏本而受到惩罚。 |
| 118 | Be my thought partner. | 做我的思想伴侣。 |
| 119 | Do not suck up to me. | 别给我吹箫。 |
| 120 | Intention. | 意为. |
| 121 | I want to understand exactly what this problem is made up of. | 我想知道这个问题的构成。 |
| 122 | My problem is, and then you will insert your problem, | 我的问题是, 然后你会插入你的问题, |
| 123 | if the stated problem appears to contain a hidden or a deeper question, | 如果所述问题似乎包含一个隐藏或更深层的问题, |
| 124 | identify it in one sentence before decomposing the current problem. | 在解析当前问题之前,请在一句话中注明。 |
| 125 | Ask whether I want you to decompose the original problem or the deeper one. | 问问我是要你分解 最初的问题还是更深的问题 |
| 126 | Do not continue until I choose. | 在我选择之前不要继续 |
| 127 | Do not replace or reframe my problem until I tell you. | 在我告诉你之前 不要取代或重新定义我的问题 |
| 128 | So you see, you're trying to constrain what AI needs to focus on. | 所以,你看,你试图限制 AI需要专注于。 |
| 129 | And the third part is mission. | 第三部分是任务 |
| 130 | Break the problem into its smallest useful constituent parts. | 把问题分解成最小的有用部分 |
| 131 | Show the hierarchy clearly. | 明显分级. |
| 132 | The overall problem is major components and the smaller elements inside or under each component. | 总的问题是主要组成部分和每个组成部分内部或下面较小的组成部分。 |
| 133 | Use only dimensions that are relevant, such as people, process steps, time, resources, costs, etc. | 只使用相关维度,如人,流程步骤,时间,资源,成本等. |
| 134 | For each component, briefly explain what it contains and how it connects to the larger problem. | 对于每个部分,简要说明其中包含的内容以及它如何与更大的问题联系起来. |
| 135 | Stop decomposing when going down further would no longer improve my understanding. | 继续下去的时候停止腐烂 将无法改善我的理解。 |
| 136 | Do not evaluate the components. | 不评估组件。 |
| 137 | Do not recommend solutions. | 不建议解决办法。 |
| 138 | Only show me what parts the problem is made up of. | 只是告诉我问题是由什么构成的 |
| 139 | So that was your first prompt. | 所以这是你的第一个提示。 |
| 140 | And I'm sorry if it was a bit long or complicated, | 我很抱歉,如果这是 有点长或复杂, |
| 141 | but I'm hoping that it will give you clarity on how to boil down any problem into its essential parts. | 但我希望这能让你明白 如何将任何问题 归结为关键部分 |
| 142 | That's part of the first principles thinking. | 这是第一个原则思考的一部分。 |
| 143 | And also how to make sure that AI remains focused on the task that you give it. | 以及如何确保AI继续专注于你所赋予的任务. |
| 144 | Now, let's go to step two, where we look at each of these parts and see whether it's a fact or an assumption. | 现在,我们走第二步,看看每个部分,看看这是事实还是假设。 |
| 145 | The most important first principle skill is auditing the assumptions. | 最重要的第一主要技能是审计假设。 |
| 146 | After the Second World War, American car companies had enormous factories that produced big American cars for the big American market. | 二战后,美国汽车公司拥有巨大的工厂,为美国大市场生产大型美国汽车. |
| 147 | Now, Toyota was a very small company and they were based in Japan. | 现在,丰田是一个非常小的公司 他们的总部设在日本。 |
| 148 | And we're talking about after World War Two. | 二战结束后,我们又在讨论这个问题。 |
| 149 | So Japan was recovering much less capital, fewer resources and a much smaller market. | 因此,日本的资本、资源和市场都在减少。 |
| 150 | So copying Detroit would not have worked for Toyota. | 所以抄袭底特律不会在丰田工作 |
| 151 | Toyota could never afford it. | 丰田永远买不起 |
| 152 | So they audited the assumptions underneath the idea of mass production itself. | 因此,他们审计了大规模生产本身的假设。 |
| 153 | Why make big cars? | 为什么做大车? |
| 154 | Why not small cars? | 为什么不小车? |
| 155 | Why produce them in huge batches? | 为什么要大量生产? |
| 156 | Why do you need to hold such a large inventory? | 为什么你需要 拥有如此庞大的库存? |
| 157 | What do you do when there is a defect? | 当有缺陷时你会怎么做? |
| 158 | Are there different, better ways to organize the processes and people? | 是否有不同、更好的方法来组织进程和人员? |
| 159 | That thinking became the foundation of just-in-time production. | 这种想法成为了及时生产的基础。 |
| 160 | And something that became so dramatically successful that American companies started implementing that. | 一些非常成功的东西, 以至于美国公司开始实施。 |
| 161 | And over time, Toyota overtook GM to become the world's largest automaker. | 随着时间的推移,丰田超越了GM成为世界上最大的汽车制造商. |
| 162 | And years later, I feel like history is repeating itself. | 多年之后,我觉得历史在重演。 |
| 163 | Because then came Tesla that questioned the assumptions made by Toyota and all car makers. | 因为后来特斯拉来了,他质疑丰田和所有汽车制造商所做的假设. |
| 164 | Because Tesla asked, why do you even need a combustion engine at all? | 因为特斯拉问,你为什么甚至需要一台燃烧机? |
| 165 | And by 2020, Tesla had overtaken Toyota as the world's most valuable automaker. | 而到2020年,特斯拉已经超越丰田成为世界上最有价值的汽车制造商. |
| 166 | Most conventions that we cling to are just assumptions that have survived. | 我们所坚持的大多数公约只是幸存下来的假设。 |
| 167 | But true innovation requires that you break the rule, that you ignore the conventions. | 但真正的创新需要你打破规则,你无视公约。 |
| 168 | And here's where AI can be a very valuable partner. | 在这里AI可以成为一个非常宝贵的合作伙伴. |
| 169 | You can use the model to perform that audit that we're talking about. | 你可以用模型来进行我们所说的审计。 |
| 170 | Here's the prompt to do that. | 这是这样做的提示。 |
| 171 | And I'll just read the first part of the prompt and then we'll just put the entire prompt on the screen. | 然后把整个提示放在屏幕上。 |
| 172 | You can pause and take a screenshot or come back to it anytime you want. | 你可以停下来拍截图 或者随时回来 |
| 173 | And of course, all of this is going to be in a nicely formatted PDF. | 当然,所有这一切都将是一个很好的PDF格式。 |
| 174 | You can get it for free. | 免费的 |
| 175 | All right, here's the prompt. | 好吧,这是提示。 |
| 176 | Actor, act as a skeptical red team analyst whose only job is to uncover and question inherited assumptions. | 演员,扮演怀疑的红色团队分析师,他唯一的工作就是发现和质疑继承的假设. |
| 177 | Assume that every obvious part of the problem may be hiding a convention until evidence proves otherwise. | 假设问题的每一明显部分都可能隐藏着一项公约,直到证据证明并非如此。 |
| 178 | Intention, I want to know which of the building blocks above are assumptions and so on. | 意图,我想知道上面的哪些构件是假设等等. |
| 179 | So this is the entire prompt. | 这就是整个提示。 |
| 180 | Now, once you identify the assumption, you may feel like you may have destroyed the entire solution that you were thinking about. | 现在,一旦你确定了这个假设, 你可能觉得你 可能已经摧毁了整个解决方案 你在想什么。 |
| 181 | And that's a good thing because now you finally have the freedom to build a better solution from the ground up. | 这是件好事,因为现在你终于有 从地上建立更好的解决方案的自由。 |
| 182 | And for that, we go to the next step, which is R for recombining. | 为此,我们走下一个步骤,即R进行重组。 |
| 183 | I think music gives us the simplest way to understand the idea of recombination. | 我认为音乐给了我们最简单的理解重组思想的方法. |
| 184 | Most modern Western music is built from 12 notes. | 大部分现代西方音乐都是由12个音符所建. |
| 185 | If you trained in Western music, that's your alphabet. | 如果你接受过西方音乐的训练 那就是你的字母表 |
| 186 | You don't spend your entire life searching for a secret 13th note. | 你不花一辈子 寻找一个秘密的第13个音符。 |
| 187 | But if you came from, let's say, Indian classical music tradition, I came from there, or Arabic music, | 但是如果你来自印度古典音乐传统 我来自那里 或者阿拉伯音乐 |
| 188 | they would use pitches that fall between the 12 notes of a Western piano. | 他们用的是西方钢琴的十二个音符之间的投球 |
| 189 | So if you only listen to, let's say, American pop all your life and you suddenly hear Arabic music, | 所以,如果你只听,让我们说, 美国流行你的一生, 你突然听到阿拉伯音乐, |
| 190 | it may sound to you as if it's out of tune, at first at least. | 它可能听起来像 它的曲调,至少一开始。 |
| 191 | But it's not. | 然则不然. |
| 192 | It's just that your ear is set to a different set of rules, the power of convention. | 只是你的耳朵被设定在 一套不同的规则, 公约的力量。 |
| 193 | But even with those 12 notes, you can recombine them into millions and millions of songs and compositions. | 但是,即使有了这12个音符,你也可以把它们重新组合成上百万的歌曲和组成. |
| 194 | Bach used them very differently than the Beatles, and Beatles used them very differently than Beyonce. | 巴赫使用它们与披头士非常不同,披头士使用它们与碧昂斯非常不同. |
| 195 | They all use the same 12 notes to create different magic, same ingredients, millions of dishes. | 他们都使用相同的12个音符来创造不同的魔法,相同的成分,数百万的菜肴. |
| 196 | That's where recombination comes into play. | 这就是重组开始发挥作用的地方. |
| 197 | Innovation is not about looking for that secret 13th note. | 创新不是寻找第13个秘密 |
| 198 | You just need the right combination of the 12 notes that you already have. | 你只需要你已有的12个音符的正确组合 |
| 199 | E.I. | 爱丽丝 |
| 200 | is unusually powerful here because it can search millions of combinations at a scale no human being can. | 因为它能以人类无法达到的规模 搜索数百万的组合 |
| 201 | Here's the R prompt. | 这是R提示 |
| 202 | I'm just going to put it on the screen. | 便拟上屏. |
| 203 | And of course, there is a PDF link. | 当然,有一个PDF链接。 |
| 204 | Here's the actor, the intention. | 这是演员,目的 |
| 205 | Here's the mission. | 这是任务 |
| 206 | Now you have a handful of possibilities. | 现在,你有一些可能性。 |
| 207 | There are ways to combine these ideas, but they're still all theoretical. | 这些想法有结合的方法,但它们仍然是理论性的. |
| 208 | The final step is where the practical world gets to vote. | 最后一步是实际世界能够投票的地方。 |
| 209 | That's our fourth step, E, for experiment. | 这是我们第四步,E,实验。 |
| 210 | You know, James Dyson, who was an inventor, noticed that these vacuum cleaners lost suction as their bags filled with dust. | James Dyson是个发明家 他注意到这些吸尘器在装满尘土的袋子中 失去了吸尘能力 |
| 211 | And it took him five thousand one hundred and twenty seven prototypes over five years before he could reach his breakthrough design. | 他花了5千12万7的原型 花了5年时间 才有突破性的设计 |
| 212 | And it's the same reason Google used to run millions of experiments on what exact shade of blue color would encourage people to click on links. | 这也是Google 用来进行数百万个实验的原因, 研究蓝色的阴影会鼓励人们点击链接。 |
| 213 | The first principle thinking is hard. | 第一个原则思考是艰难的。 |
| 214 | It is counterintuitive, but it's still a clean process until the fourth step. | 它具有反直觉,但它仍然是一个干净的过程,直到第四步。 |
| 215 | The real world experiments are inherently messy. | 真实世界的实验本来就很乱 |
| 216 | They're hard, they're risky, and they have real consequences if you fail. | 他们很辛苦,很冒险, 如果你失败了,他们会有真正的后果。 |
| 217 | That's why AI can be a very good simulator. | 这就是为什么AI可以是一个非常好的模拟器. |
| 218 | You can use AI to design these experiments for you. | 你可以用人工智能为你设计这些实验. |
| 219 | Here's a prompt for it. | 这里有个提示 |
| 220 | Here's the actor. | 演员来了 |
| 221 | Act as a skeptical scientist. | 充当怀疑论的科学家. |
| 222 | Your job is to help me design the cheapest, fastest way to find out whether this holds up before it cost me anything real in time, money, effort, reputation. | 你的工作是帮助我设计出最便宜,最快的方法 来找出这是否维持下去 以免我失去时间,金钱,努力,名声 |
| 223 | Don't try to sell me the idea. | 不要试图卖我的想法。 |
| 224 | Give me the test I could actually run. | 给我做个测试吧 |
| 225 | So that's the actor. | 这就是演员。 |
| 226 | Here's the intention. | 这是目的 |
| 227 | Here's the mission. | 这是任务 |
| 228 | And notice what it says at the bottom of the mission part of the prompt. | 注意在任务底部的提示部分 |
| 229 | And I like it a lot. | 我很喜欢 |
| 230 | For each test, tell me what result would rule that solution out and what result would keep it alive and what I'd learn from the problem either way. | 对于每个测试,告诉我什么结果会 排除这个解决方案, 什么样的结果会保持它的生命, 以及我从问题中学到什么。 |
| 231 | Give me your view on which building block to revisit if all the tests fail. | 如果测试都失败了 就再看看哪个建筑构件 |
| 232 | And the reason I like it is because the whole point of first principles thinking is to keep us learning about where our failures and successes are | 我之所以喜欢它 是因为第一个原则的全部要点 是让我们知道 我们的失败和成功之处 |
| 233 | and what they're caused by. | 和他们的原因 |
| 234 | So, yay, we made it. | 我们成功了 |
| 235 | It was a bit dense, but that was there. | 它有点稠密,但那是在那里。 |
| 236 | And it's yours. | 这是你的 |
| 237 | Make it better. | 使其更妙. |
| 238 | Share it with others. | 和别人分享 |
| 239 | Make sure every prompt makes the machine show its work to you. | 确保每个提示 使机器显示它的工作给你。 |
| 240 | And by the way, make sure that you are the decision maker. | 顺便说一句 确保你是决策者 |
| 241 | AI does the work. | AI负责工作。 |
| 242 | AI shows you the work. | AI给你看的作品。 |
| 243 | You keep the judgment. | 你继续判断 |
| 244 | Now, one point I would make about first principles and the framework. | 现在,我要谈一点关于第一原则和框架。 |
| 245 | They won't give you a surefire way to avoid failure. | 他们不会为避免失败而给你一个必火的方法 |
| 246 | The goal is not to be right every time. | 目标不是每次都对 |
| 247 | It is to learn quickly why you were wrong. | 是要很快地知道你为什么错了 |
| 248 | Martin Short has been one of the most talented comedic actors for, I don't know, more than 40 years. | 马丁 肖特是40多年来 最有才华的喜剧演员之一 |
| 249 | And yet most of his movies have flopped. | 然而他的大部分电影都失败了。 |
| 250 | But he's still one of the most successful comedians in North America today. | 但他仍然是今天北美最成功的喜剧演员之一. |
| 251 | And he was talking to a young comedian. | 他和一个年轻的喜剧演员说话 |
| 252 | He gave him a wonderful advice. | 他给了他一个很好的建议。 |
| 253 | He said, in this business, you fail 98 percent of the time. | 他说,在这个行业中, 你失败了98%的时间。 |
| 254 | Those are great odds. | 这是巨大的概率。 |
| 255 | I love that line. | 我喜欢这条线。 |
| 256 | Most of what I have tried in my life didn't work either. | 我这辈子尝试过的大部分 也没有成功 |
| 257 | My failure rate is right around there. | 我的失败率就在附近 |
| 258 | You know, yours might be too. | 你知道,你的也许也是。 |
| 259 | Even if you have such a terrible hit rate as mine, | 即使你有这么可怕的打击率 像我一样, |
| 260 | the math eventually still works out in your favor because when you find just that 2 percent that actually works, | 数学最终仍然有利于你 因为当你发现只有2%的 实际工作, |
| 261 | it can change the entire trajectory of your life. | 它能改变你一生的轨迹 |
| 262 | You don't need 100 wins. | 你不需要赢100块 |
| 263 | You only need one. | 你只需要一个。 |
| 264 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 265 | And I love you. | 我爱你 |
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