《经济学人》英伟达：AI时代的『中央银行』 [B2]
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字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:19 | It took 30 years for Nvidia, an American firm whose chips power much of the world's artificial | Nvidia公司花了30年时间 该公司是一家美国公司, 它的芯片能提供世界大部分的人工 |
| 0:25 | intelligence, to reach a valuation of $1 trillion. | 情报,达到价值1万亿美元。 |
| 0:30 | Getting to $2 trillion took only nine more months. | 达到两万亿只用了九个月 |
| 0:33 | It passed the $5 trillion mark less | 过了5万亿马克 |
| 0:36 | than two years after that. | 两年之后 |
| 0:38 | It is now the world's most valuable company, worth around $5.4 trillion. | 它现在是世界上最有价值的公司,价值约5.4万亿美元。 |
| 0:45 | Next year its sales are expected almost to double. | 预计明年其销售额将几乎翻一番。 |
| 0:48 | Some analysts predict it will take | 有些分析家预测这需要 |
| 0:50 | in $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2029. | 到2029年年收入1万亿美元。 |
| 0:55 | It is not just chip making that has spurred | 不只是芯片制造 刺激了 |
展开字幕全文（293 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | It took 30 years for Nvidia, an American firm whose chips power much of the world's artificial | Nvidia公司花了30年时间 该公司是一家美国公司, 它的芯片能提供世界大部分的人工 |
| 2 | intelligence, to reach a valuation of $1 trillion. | 情报,达到价值1万亿美元。 |
| 3 | Getting to $2 trillion took only nine more months. | 达到两万亿只用了九个月 |
| 4 | It passed the $5 trillion mark less | 过了5万亿马克 |
| 5 | than two years after that. | 两年之后 |
| 6 | It is now the world's most valuable company, worth around $5.4 trillion. | 它现在是世界上最有价值的公司,价值约5.4万亿美元。 |
| 7 | Next year its sales are expected almost to double. | 预计明年其销售额将几乎翻一番。 |
| 8 | Some analysts predict it will take | 有些分析家预测这需要 |
| 9 | in $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2029. | 到2029年年收入1万亿美元。 |
| 10 | It is not just chip making that has spurred | 不只是芯片制造 刺激了 |
| 11 | Nvidia's stunning growth, however. | 然而,恩维迪亚的惊人增长。 |
| 12 | Its boss, Jensen Huang, has also resorted to financial | 其上司黄延生也曾利用金融手段 |
| 13 | engineering to boost demand for its wares. | 工程可以刺激对它产品的需求 |
| 14 | In mid-August, for example, Nvidia agreed | 例如,8月中旬,恩维迪亚同意 |
| 15 | to provide a backstop worth up to $105 billion for a vast data centre in Ohio that will use | 为俄亥俄州一个庞大的数据中心提供价值达1 050亿美元的支持,该中心将使用 |
| 16 | lots of its chips. | 许多芯片。 |
| 17 | A week earlier it had revealed plans to mobilise more than $500 billion of | 一周前,它揭露了动员5 000多亿美元 |
| 18 | investment in AI infrastructure with the help of six big Wall Street firms by guaranteeing | 在六家华尔街大公司的帮助下投资AI基础设施,保证 |
| 19 | the value of the equipment it sells to such projects. | 向这类项目出售的设备的价值。 |
| 20 | It may underwrite as much as a quarter | 它可能承担多达四分之一 |
| 21 | of the cost of some investments. | 一些投资的成本。 |
| 22 | In July Nvidia helped some customers finance big data centres | 7月,Nvidia帮助一些客户资助大数据中心 |
| 23 | in another way by promising to top up their income if it misses set targets. | 以另一种方式,保证如果收入未能达到既定目标,则将增加收入。 |
| 24 | Companies | 公司 |
| 25 | often lend to their customers. | 经常借给顾客 |
| 26 | Think of the financing arms of car makers, for example. | 例如,想一想为汽车制造商的武器提供资金。 |
| 27 | Mr Huang argues that Nvidia is simply helping to unlock investment for perfectly viable | 黄先生说,Nvidia只是帮助解锁投资 完全可行 |
| 28 | projects that might otherwise struggle to borrow enough at the right price. | (b) 可能难以以适当价格借贷的项目。 |
| 29 | But to critics, | 但对于批评者来说, |
| 30 | these deals carry more than a whiff of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s when telecom | 20世纪90年代后期 电信业的网络热潮 |
| 31 | equipment makers such as Cisco and Lucent lent billions of dollars to telecoms providers | Cisco和Lucent等设备制造商向电信供应商贷款数十亿美元 |
| 32 | that bought their gear. | 买了他们的装备。 |
| 33 | When demand for the telecoms firm's services fell short, some | 当对电信公司服务的需求不足时,有的 |
| 34 | of them collapsed, landing Cisco and Lucent with big losses. | 他们崩溃了, 登陆思科和卢森特 损失巨大。 |
| 35 | As Jay Goldberg of Seaport | 作为海港的杰伊·戈德伯格 |
| 36 | Research Partners, a firm of analysts, puts it, Nvidia is walking a fine line between | 研究伙伴,一个分析师事务所, 说,恩维迪亚正在走 一条精细的线之间 |
| 37 | enabling demand and creating it. | 允许需求并创造需求。 |
| 38 | He does not yet think Nvidia has crossed that line, although | 他还没有认为Nvidia已经越过了这条线,虽然 |
| 39 | it is getting pretty close. | 越来越近了 |
| 40 | Others are more sceptical still, including Michael Burry, | 其他人更怀疑 包括迈克尔·布利 |
| 41 | an investor who made a fortune betting against the mortgage-backed securities that precipitated | 以抵押支持的证券为赌注 |
| 42 | the financial crisis of 2007-9. | 2007-9年金融危机。 |
| 43 | He and others are asking what might happen if demand for | 他和其他人问,如果要求 |
| 44 | AI chips grows more slowly than expected. | AI芯片的生长比预期的慢. |
| 45 | Supply increases and prices fall, which would | 供应增加和价格下降,这将 |
| 46 | not only reduce Nvidia's own profits but potentially also generate losses on its lavish | 不仅会减少Nvidia的利润 而且还会给它的奢侈品带来损失 |
| 47 | support for its customers. | 支持客户。 |
| 48 | The question is pertinent because Nvidia's financial commitments | 这个问题很重要,因为Nvidia的财政承诺 |
| 49 | are huge and growing fast. | 是巨大的,增长很快。 |
| 50 | Over the past three years, it has pledged over $70 billion in | 在过去三年中,它认捐了700多亿美元。 |
| 51 | investment in start-ups and offered $300 billion in financial support to its customers. | 向客户提供3 000亿美元的财政支持。 |
| 52 | Some | 有点 |
| 53 | have taken to calling Nvidia the central bank of AI because it plays so pivotal a | 将Nvidia称为AI的中央银行 因为它的作用如此关键 |
| 54 | role in financing the industry. | (c) 在为工业融资方面发挥作用。 |
| 55 | That will indeed, as Mr Huang argues, help the industry | 正如黄先生所说,这确实能帮助这个行业 |
| 56 | grow, but it also carries risks. | 增长,但也带来风险。 |
| 57 | Nvidia's financial engineering is partly a response | Nvidia的金融工程是部分反应 |
| 58 | to its biggest customer's transformation into rivals. | 给最大的客户 变成对手。 |
| 59 | Hyperscalers, tech giants such | 超规模的,技术巨头 |
| 60 | 作为亚马逊,Google,Meta和微软,约占Nvidia收入的一半. | |
| 61 | This | 这个 |
| 62 | year they are projected to invest around $800 billion, largely on AI infrastructure, but | 预计每年投资约8 000亿美元,主要用于AI基础设施,但 |
| 63 | most of them have begun designing their own chips, which puts their future purchases from | 他们中的大多数已经开始设计自己的芯片,这使得他们未来的购买来自 |
| 64 | Nvidia in doubt. | 恩维迪亚在怀疑中。 |
| 65 | For the hyperscalers, these custom chips are much cheaper, costing between | 对于超规模机,这些自定义芯片成本要低得多,成本在 |
| 66 | 和Nvidia一样多 | |
| 67 | They can also perform some tasks better because | 他们也可以更好地执行一些任务,因为 |
| 68 | the hyperscalers can tailor them to their own software. | 超标器可以适应自己的软件 |
| 69 | Worse, from Nvidia's point | 更糟的是,从恩维迪亚的角度 |
| 70 | of view, a few of the tech giants are not simply developing chips for their own use, | 从观点看,少数技术巨头 不只是开发芯片供自己使用, |
| 71 | but also marketing them to others. | 还要推销给别人 |
| 72 | Google, for example, has sold some specialised processors | 例如,Google出售了一些专门的处理器 |
| 73 | to Anthropic, a big free-standing AI lab. | 去Anthropic 一个独立的人工智能实验室 |
| 74 | Amazon also expects its custom chip business | 亚马逊也期望它的自定义芯片业务 |
| 75 | to become a sizeable source of revenue. | 成为可观的收入来源。 |
| 76 | Bloomberg Intelligence, a data provider, | 彭博情报公司 数据提供者 |
| 77 | predicts that custom chips will gradually eat into Nvidia's sales, accounting for about 50% | 预测定制芯片将逐渐进入Nvidia的销售,占50%左右 |
| 78 | of the market for processors used in AI by the end of the decade, up from roughly 40% this year. | 到本十年末,人工智能使用的加工器的市场从今年的大约40%上升。 |
| 79 | Nvidia, therefore, must look elsewhere for growth. | 因此,恩维迪亚必须寻找其他地方的增长。 |
| 80 | It is courting governments that want to build | 正是求爱的政府想要建立 |
| 81 | domestic AI infrastructure, companies constructing their own data centres and | 国内人工智能基础设施、建造自己数据中心的公司和 |
| 82 | neoclouds, firms that rent out AI computing capacity. | 新云 租赁AI计算能力的公司 |
| 83 | Such plans require huge upfront | 这样的计划需要巨大的前期 |
| 84 | investments. | 投资。 |
| 85 | A one-gigawatt facility, the kind used by large AI labs, contains around half a | 大型AI实验室使用的单基瓦设施大约含有半个 |
| 86 | million chips. | 百万筹码. |
| 87 | Bernstein, a research outfit, estimates that equipping one with Nvidia's | Bernstein, 一个研究装备, 估计一个装备 恩维迪亚的 |
| 88 | hardware costs around $47 billion, two-fifths of which goes on the chips alone. | 硬件花费约470亿美元,其中的五分之二仅用于芯片. |
| 89 | Nvidia reportedly | 据报,恩维迪亚 |
| 90 | plans to raise the price of its latest processors by more than 15%, blaming the soaring cost of | 计划将其最新处理器的价格提高15%以上,指责其成本飞涨。 |
| 91 | memory chips, an important component. | 内存芯片,一个重要的组件. |
| 92 | Hyperscalers have little trouble financing all this. | 超规模公司在为这一切融资方面没有什么困难。 |
| 93 | They have | 他们有 |
| 94 | typically used their prodigious cash flow to pay for new data centres. | 通常使用其庞大的现金流动支付新的数据中心的费用。 |
| 95 | More recently, as their | 最近,作为他们的 |
| 96 | spending has soared, they have also begun to borrow heavily. | 支出激增,也开始大量借款。 |
| 97 | Four of them have issued more than | 其中四个已经发行超过 |
| 98 | $200 billion in debt in 2025 and 2026. | 2025年及2026年债务2000亿元. |
| 99 | Hyperscalers have investment-grade credit ratings, | 超规模者有投资级信用评级, |
| 100 | which keep their borrowing costs low. | 使他们的借贷成本低。 |
| 101 | Upstart neoclouds have similar spending needs, but little | 新星云也有类似的支出需求,但很少 |
| 102 | revenue. | 收入。 |
| 103 | Their loans are naturally much more expensive. | 他们的贷款自然要昂贵得多。 |
| 104 | Alphabet, Google's parent company, | 字母,谷歌的母公司, |
| 105 | sold $2.75 billion of 50-year bonds in November at an annual interest rate of 5.7%. | 11月以年利率5.7%。 |
| 106 | The rate at | 费率为 |
| 107 | which CoreWeave, the biggest neocloud, borrowed $2.6 billion in July was almost double. | 7月借到26亿美元 几乎翻了一番 |
| 108 | It is | 没错 |
| 109 | this gap between hyperscalers' borrowing costs and everyone else's that the bank of Nvidia would | Nvidia银行的借款成本与其他人的差额 |
| 110 | like to narrow. | 喜欢缩小。 |
| 111 | One way it does that is by taking equity stakes in start-ups that will be customers | 一种方式是把股权股权 给新开办企业 成为客户 |
| 112 | themselves or that will help fuel demand for Nvidia's chips indirectly. | 或者能间接帮助Nvidia芯片的燃料需求。 |
| 113 | Last year Nvidia made | 去年恩维迪亚做了 |
| 114 | about 90 such investments, nearly twice as many as two years earlier. | 大约90项此类投资,几乎是两年前的两倍。 |
| 115 | This year it has already | 今年已经 |
| 116 | agreed to another 60-odd. | 同意另外60多码。 |
| 117 | Some of these checks aim to propagate open-weight AI models, which users | 其中一些检查旨在推广开放量级的AI模型,用户使用这些模型。 |
| 118 | can download free of charge and adapt, unlike proprietary offerings from firms like Anthropic, | 与Anthropic等公司的专有服务不同, |
| 119 | OpenAI and Google, which users tend to access via subscriptions and whose inner workings are hidden. | OpenAI和Google,用户倾向于通过订阅访问,其内部工作被隐藏. |
| 120 | In August Nvidia agreed to pay Poolside, a start-up building AI coding models, $6 billion | 8月,Nvidia同意支付Poolside, 一个启动建筑AI编码模型,60亿美元 |
| 121 | to license its software and a further $1 billion for a stake. | (c) 为其软件发放许可证,并另外提供10亿美元作为股份。 |
| 122 | It has also reportedly agreed to buy | 据报道,它还同意购买 |
| 123 | Huggingface, a platform hosting open-weight models for $12.9 billion. | 胡景面,是一家托管开放量级模型的平台,耗资129亿美元. |
| 124 | The intention behind such | 其意图是: |
| 125 | investments is to fuel demand for Nvidia's chips by creating a proliferation of AI products and | 投资是为了刺激对Nvidia芯片的需求,办法是制造AI产品的扩散, |
| 126 | companies that are independent of the hyperscalers. | 公司独立于超规模公司。 |
| 127 | Increasingly, however, Nvidia is not simply | 但是,Nvidia越来越不简单 |
| 128 | investing in promising AI firms but also helping them finance big projects more directly. | 投资于有前途的AI公司,但也帮助他们更直接地资助大型项目。 |
| 129 | In early | 早点 |
| 130 | July it announced a new stratagem in which it promises to top up NeoCloud's income from new | 7月,它宣布了一个新的策略,其中它承诺将填补NeoCloud的新收入。 |
| 131 | data centres to an agreed floor. | 数据中心到商定的楼层。 |
| 132 | These undertakings, the exact terms of which vary from deal to deal, | 这些承诺的具体条款因交易而异, |
| 133 | often last for six years. | 经常持续6年。 |
| 134 | Throughout that period Nvidia promises to pay a set price for compute, | 在此期间恩维迪亚承诺支付计算费的固定价格, |
| 135 | as the jargon has it. | 说得没错 |
| 136 | If the NeoCloud manages to sell the capacity in question at a higher price, | 如果NeoCloud能以更高的价格出售有关能力, |
| 137 | Nvidia receives a share of the difference. | Nvidia收到一部分差额。 |
| 138 | This safety net makes NeoCloud's future revenues much | 这个安全网让NeoCloud未来的收入大增 |
| 139 | more predictable and so lowers the cost of the debt they take on to build new data centres. | 更可预测,这样就能降低他们为建造新的数据中心而承担的债务成本。 |
| 140 | That, | 这个 |
| 141 | in turn, spurs demand for Nvidia's processors. | 进而刺激对Nvidia处理器的需求。 |
| 142 | Charon AI,一个澳大利亚NeoCloud, 期望制作 | |
| 143 | use of a backstop of this sort worth about $4.9 billion to deploy around 40,000 Nvidia chips. | 利用这种价值49亿美元的支援 部署大约4万块Nvidia芯片 |
| 144 | Firmus,另一个NeoCloud,计划购买多达17万. | |
| 145 | Dan Nischball,Semi的分析师 | |
| 146 | Analysis, a consultancy, argues such arrangements need not be a permanent feature of the industry | 作为顾问的分析认为,这种安排不一定是该行业的永久特征。 |
| 147 | but instead buy time for lenders to become more comfortable about lending to such projects. | 却为放款人争取时间,让他们更愿意向这类项目贷款。 |
| 148 | In the meantime, the combination of these different forms of support is creating a complex | 同时,这些不同形式的支助的结合正在形成一个复杂的结构。 |
| 149 | tangle of commitments. | 承诺之交。 |
| 150 | Take CoreWeave, a NeoCloud in which Nvidia has accumulated an 11% stake for | Nvidia在其中积累了11%的股份。 |
| 151 | more than $2 billion. | 超过20亿美元。 |
| 152 | CoreWeave hopes to build more than 5 gigawatts of data centre capacity | CoreWeave希望建设5千兆瓦以上的数据中心能力 |
| 153 | using Nvidia's chips by 2030. | 到2030年使用Nvidia的芯片. |
| 154 | Nvidia同意花费63亿美元 用于CoreWeave的未使用 | |
| 155 | capacity by 2032 if need be. | 如有必要,可在2032年前完成。 |
| 156 | Nvidia同时是CoreWeave的投资者,供应商和客户. | |
| 157 | Nvidia is also taking a creative approach with big AI labs which need huge amounts of compute | Nvidia也正在采取创造性的方法 与大型AI实验室 需要大量的计算 |
| 158 | but are bleeding cash. | 但血流成河 |
| 159 | The giant data centre it is backing in Ohio is owned by SB Energy, | 它在俄亥俄州支持的巨型数据中心 由SB能源公司拥有 |
| 160 | a unit of SoftBank, a Japanese conglomerate. | 软邦克(日语:软邦克),是日本的一个联合体. |
| 161 | OpenAI将成为租户. | |
| 162 | Nvidia, for its part, | 就恩维迪亚而言, |
| 163 | will provide guarantees for the lease on the land and buildings for the power purchase contract | 将为购买电力合同的土地和建筑物的租赁提供担保 |
| 164 | on which it will rely. | 它将依赖它。 |
| 165 | In return, the project will use 1.5 million Nvidia processors with multiple | 作为回报,该项目将使用150万个有多个Nvidia处理器 |
| 166 | upgrade cycles expected over the life of the project. | 预计在项目实施期间会有升级周期。 |
| 167 | 即使是Anthropic,它从购买芯片 | |
| 168 | Amazon and Google, has not escaped this web. | 亚马逊与谷歌, |
| 169 | Through a convoluted series of agreements, | 通过一系列复杂的协议, |
| 170 | it has reportedly signed a $35 billion deal to rent cloud computing capacity from Lambda, | 据报道,它签署了350亿美元的交易 租借云计算能力 从Lambda, |
| 171 | a Nvidia有利害关系的NeoCloud。 | |
| 172 | Lambda则使用HUT8开发的设施. | |
| 173 | another NeoCloud whose entire capacity Nvidia had leased and may now have largely sublet. | Nvidia已经租了另一辆NeoCloud,现在可能基本上有转租。 |
| 174 | Nvidia is exploring creative ways to draw more outside capital into such projects. | Nvidia正在探索创新方法,以吸引更多外部资本参与这些项目。 |
| 175 | Its $500 billion partnership with big Wall Street firms will court institutional investors | 它与华尔街大公司 5000亿美元的伙伴关系 将法院机构投资者 |
| 176 | such as sovereign wealth funds, insurers and pension funds. | 例如主权财富基金、保险人和养恤基金。 |
| 177 | These investors will finance | 这些投资者将出资 |
| 178 | independent vehicles that will buy Nvidia hardware, build infrastructure and sell compute. | 独立车辆,将购买Nvidia硬件,建设基础设施和销售计算。 |
| 179 | Nvidia will neither contribute any cash up front for these deals nor take on any debt. | Nvidia既不为这些交易提供任何现金,也不承担任何债务。 |
| 180 | In some | 在某些 |
| 181 | cases, though, it will provide residual value support of up to a quarter of the deal's total | 不过,它将提供最多占交易总额的四分之一的剩余价值支持。 |
| 182 | price to cover shortfalls in the value of the hardware involved after a certain period. | 价格以弥补所涉硬件价值在一段时间后出现的短缺。 |
| 183 | It | 这个 |
| 184 | will also provide technical support, giving lenders more confidence that the equipment they finance | 还将提供技术支持,使放款人更加相信他们资助的设备 |
| 185 | will be used well. | 将善用。 |
| 186 | Mr. Huang frames this as a way to make compute an investable asset class. | 黄先生将这个设定为计算可投资资产类别的方法。 |
| 187 | Underpinning this web of obligations are two fundamental assumptions, that Nvidia's chips | 这个义务网的基础有两个基本假设, 恩维迪亚的筹码 |
| 188 | will retain their value and that demand for compute will continue to grow at a rapid pace. | 计算需求将继续迅速增长。 |
| 189 | Neither is assured. | 也没有保证。 |
| 190 | Start with the chips. | 从筹码开始 |
| 191 | Mr. Huang says they are fungible and durable, | 黄先生说它们是可替换和耐用的 |
| 192 | with software upgrades enhancing their usefulness for years after they are sold. | 软件的升级在售出之后的数年内提高了它们的效用。 |
| 193 | They should be | 他们应该是 |
| 194 | seen as bankable assets, he argues, that can serve as collateral for loans and guarantees. | 他认为,可被视为银行可担保的资产,可作为贷款和担保的抵押。 |
| 195 | But how long an AI chip retains its value is a matter of debate. | 但AI芯片保留其价值多久是一个争论的问题. |
| 196 | Mr. | 劳伦斯先生 |
| 197 | Bury has argued that big cloud providers have inflated profits by depreciating them | Bury认为,大云供应商通过贬值来夸大利润 |
| 198 | over five or six years rather than two or three. | 超过5年或6年,而不是2年或3年。 |
| 199 | So far Mr. Huang has the better of the argument. | 目前黄先生的辩词比较好. |
| 200 | Older chips are still in demand. | 老筹码仍在需求之中。 |
| 201 | 8月,CoreWeave宣布了合同 | |
| 202 | involving Nvidia's A100 chips that runs into 2029. | 涉及Nvidia的A100芯片 运行到2029年. |
| 203 | A100于2020年和Nvidia推出 | |
| 204 | has since rolled out multiple newer models. | 之后推出了多个较新的模型。 |
| 205 | There is evidence, too, that old chips retain their | 也有证据表明 旧的芯片保留了他们的 |
| 206 | value. | 数值。 |
| 207 | Semi-Analysis estimates that renting Nvidia's H100, a workhorse of the AI industry, | 半解析估计,租借Nvidia的H100, AI行业的一匹工作马, |
| 208 | costs around $2.80 an hour on a one-year contract. | 一个一年合同每小时花费2.80美元。 |
| 209 | That is only about a tenth less than when the chip | 这只比芯片少十分之一 |
| 210 | launched in early 2023. | 2023年初推出. |
| 211 | Yet both the longevity and value of such chips may simply be artefacts of | 然而,这种芯片的寿命和价值都可能只是 |
| 212 | When compute is constrained, firms have no choice but to keep older chips humming. | 当计算受限时,企业别无选择,只能保持旧的芯片鸣叫. |
| 213 | Many are using such chips for inference, meaning when an AI model responds to queries, | 许多人使用这样的芯片进行推论, 意思是当一个AI模型回答询问时, |
| 214 | a far less demanding task than training models for which the newest hardware is used. | 与使用最新硬件的培训模式相比,一项艰巨得多的任务。 |
| 215 | Nvidia itself releases spiffy new chips every year, with the explicit intention of superseding | Nvidia本身每年都会释放飞跃的新芯片,明确意图是取代 |
| 216 | their predecessors. | 他们的前任。 |
| 217 | That leaves it in the odd position of arguing both that old chips | 这让它处于奇怪的地位 争论这两个老筹码 |
| 218 | should retain their value and that its new chips should supplant them. | 应保留其价值,其新筹码应取代这些筹码。 |
| 219 | Finding a balance will be | 找到一个平衡 |
| 220 | tricky. | 难解. |
| 221 | The price of compute should fall as supply increases. | 计算价格应随着供应的增加而下降。 |
| 222 | Hyperscalers and even labs | 超规模甚至实验室 |
| 223 | like OpenAI are rolling out purpose-built inference chips since spending on inference | 就像OpenAI在推论上花费时间 推出专有的推论芯片 |
| 224 | has overtaken spending on training. | 已经超过了培训开支。 |
| 225 | Nvidia enjoys enviable gross margins of around 75% | Nvidia享有约75%的令人羡慕的总差额。 |
| 226 | against roughly 55% at AMD, a smaller rival. | 相对在AMD的大约55%, 一个较小的对手。 |
| 227 | Tim Davis 一个AI硬件公司的创始人 | |
| 228 | acquired by Qualcomm, a chip designer, believes that as options proliferate, | 由芯片设计师Qualcomm收购,认为随着选项激增, |
| 229 | the economics of chip making will start to compress. | 芯片制造的经济学将开始压缩。 |
| 230 | The biggest risk to chip prices is demand | 芯片价格的最大风险是需求 |
| 231 | itself. | 它本身。 |
| 232 | As long as spending on AI keeps booming, Nvidia sells its chips, its customers fill their | 只要花在AI上的钱不断繁荣 Nvidia卖掉它的芯片 客户就充斥着 |
| 233 | data centres and its various guarantees are seldom invoked. | 很少使用数据中心及其各种保障。 |
| 234 | But if demand is not quite as expansive | 如果需求没有那么大 |
| 235 | as markets expect, NeoClouds and other AI providers could struggle to sell their capacity or turn a | 正如市场所期望的那样,NeoClouds和其他AI供应商可能难以出售其能力或转成 |
| 236 | profit. | 利润。 |
| 237 | That in turn could trigger Nvidia's backstops, forcing it to buy unused compute, | 这反过来又会触发Nvidia的后台 迫使它购买未使用的计算, |
| 238 | cover price shortfalls or pay for unwanted power. | 弥补价格短缺或支付不必要的电力。 |
| 239 | The same slowdown would also dent Nvidia's sales | 同样的减速也会证明Nvidia的销量 |
| 240 | and thus the cash flow available to meet those obligations. | 以及因此可用于履行这些义务的现金流量。 |
| 241 | This scenario does not hinge on a | 这一设想并不取决于 |
| 242 | collapse in demand. | 需求崩溃。 |
| 243 | Merely disappointing growth could conceivably spell trouble. | 仅仅令人失望的增长可能会造成麻烦。 |
| 244 | How much could Nvidia have to cough up? | 恩维迪亚要咳嗽多少? |
| 245 | It has promised around $25 billion in future equity | 已经承诺了约250亿美元的未来股权 |
| 246 | investments. | 投资。 |
| 247 | It owes around $33 billion in debt. | 它欠债约330亿美元。 |
| 248 | Its potential liabilities to customers amount to | 它对客户的潜在负债相当于 |
| 249 | about $300 billion, but only come into play in a downturn and so do not appear on its balance sheet. | 大约3 000亿美元,但只是在经济下滑时才发挥作用,因此,不出现在资产负债表上。 |
| 250 | These include the $105 billion guarantee behind OpenAI's data centre, as much as $125 billion | 这些包括OpenAI数据中心背后的1 050亿美元的担保,高达1 250亿美元 |
| 251 | through the Wall Street Partnership and around $67 billion in other backstops. | 通过华尔街伙伴关系和约670亿美元的其他支助。 |
| 252 | Nvidia will | 恩维迪亚会的 |
| 253 | almost certainly not end up paying anything close to the full amount of its guarantees. | 几乎肯定不会最终支付任何接近其全部担保额的款项。 |
| 254 | Its commitments are spread over many years, so could not come due all at once. | 它的承诺分许多年,因此不可能一劳永逸。 |
| 255 | Its proposed | 提议 |
| 256 | backstop for OpenAI's data centre, for example, runs for 20 years starting in 2028. | 例如,OpenAI数据中心的支持站从2028年开始运行20年。 |
| 257 | 如果 OpenAI 则 | |
| 258 | stopped paying the lease, Nvidia could find another tenant, vastly diminishing its exposure. | Nvidia可以找到另一个租户, |
| 259 | What is more, Nvidia's own finances are strong enough to weather these liabilities. | 此外,Nvidia自己的财政足以应付这些负债。 |
| 260 | Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, reckons Nvidia's all-in debt will rise from $53 billion | Morgan Stanley,一家投资银行, 估计Nvidia的全部债务将从530亿美元上升 |
| 261 | early next year to $200 billion by the beginning of 2029 as guarantees come into effect. | 明年年初,随着担保生效,到2029年初将达到2,000亿美元。 |
| 262 | But that is offset by a stash of cash and liquid securities currently worth $99 billion | 但被目前价值990亿美元的现金和流动证券所抵消 |
| 263 | and a business that will generate about $200 billion in cash this year. | 还有今年能赚到两千亿美元现金的企业 |
| 264 | Only a cataclysmic downturn that caused all Nvidia's guarantees to come due and its profits | 只有灾难性的衰退 导致Nvidia所有的担保 和它的利润 |
| 265 | to evaporate, almost entirely, would imperil the company as things stand. | 蒸发, 几乎完全, 将会危及公司 目前的情况。 |
| 266 | The picture may | 图片可能 |
| 267 | change, however, if Nvidia's commitments keep growing. | 然而,如果Nvidia的承诺继续增加,情况就会发生变化。 |
| 268 | Andy Lee of Credit Sites, 一个金融公司 | |
| 269 | research firm, worries that it will keep pushing the pedal until something breaks. | 研究公司担心它会继续推踏板 直到有东西断裂 |
| 270 | Semi-Analysis | 半解析 |
| 271 | estimates that Nvidia takes on roughly $5.9 billion of guarantees for every 100 megawatts | 估计Nvidia每100兆瓦获得约59亿美元的担保 |
| 272 | of data centre capacity covered by its NeoCloud backstop programme. | 其NeoCloud支援站方案覆盖的数据中心容量。 |
| 273 | If it adds more such guarantees, | 如果它增加了更多的这种保证, |
| 274 | Semi-Analysis reckons its exposure could reach $175 billion by the end of 2028 from this initiative | 半解析估计,到2028年底,该举措的接触量将达到1 750亿美元 |
| 275 | alone. | 一个人 |
| 276 | Nvidia is not alone in using ever more complex financial instruments to lubricate | Nvidia并非独自使用日益复杂的金融工具进行润滑 |
| 277 | customer demand. | 顾客需求。 |
| 278 | AMD has offered to sell big stakes in itself to OpenAI and Meta in exchange | AMD主动提出将大股权本身出售给OpenAI和Meta作为交换. |
| 279 | for mammoth contracts to buy its chips. | 给猛毛腿公司买薯片 |
| 280 | In April, Google assembled a consortium of firms to help | 4月,Google召集了一批公司来帮助 |
| 281 | finance Anthropic's purchase of $35 billion of its chips. | 资助Anthropic购买了350亿美元的芯片. |
| 282 | Broadcom,开发芯片在 | |
| 283 | Google's behalf, agreed to cover any shortfall if Anthropic fails to pay. | 谷歌的代理,同意弥补任何短缺 如果Anthropic没有支付。 |
| 284 | Amid the race to lock in | 在锁定的比赛中 |
| 285 | sales and loans, there is a danger that speculative projects that might otherwise struggle to find | 投机性项目可能难以找到 |
| 286 | financing will get built. | 资金将会到位 |
| 287 | Should returns in the industry fall short or take longer to materialise | 如果行业回报不足或需要更长的时间才能实现 |
| 288 | than these convoluted deals assume, the result will be a profusion of expensive idle chips. | 比这些扭曲的交易假设,结果将是大量昂贵的闲置芯片。 |
| 289 | No company is more entangled in this web than Nvidia. | 没有哪个公司比Nvidia更纠缠在这个网上了. |
| 290 | Mr Huang believes that the AI infrastructure | 黄先生认为人工智能基础设施 |
| 291 | build-out is at full steam. | 积聚在全蒸汽。 |
| 292 | But Nvidia's investors should be aware that the more of this boom they | 但Nvidia的投资者应该知道 他们越是繁荣 |
| 293 | finance, the more of any bust they will have to bear. | 资金,他们要承受的越多。 |
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