6-16 美伊达成初步协议，霍尔木兹海峡重开？ | BBC全
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. | 欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。 |
| 0:03 | I'm Janette Jaleel. | 我是珍妮特・贾莱尔。 |
| 0:04 | And joining me from Washington | 从华盛顿加入我 |
| 0:06 | is our State Department correspondent, Tom Bateman. | 是国务院通讯员 汤姆·贝特曼 |
| 0:09 | And after weeks when President Trump kept promising | 在特朗普总统坚持承诺数周后 |
| 0:12 | that a peace deal with Iran was close, | 与伊朗的和约已接近, |
| 0:15 | only for those hopes to be dashed, | 只为希望破灭, |
| 0:17 | we finally have a deal that's been announced | 我们终于达成协议了 |
| 0:20 | between the US and Iran. | 美国和伊朗之间 |
| 0:23 | So Tom, does this mean that the Strait of Hormuz | 汤姆,这是否意味着霍尔木兹海峡 |
展开字幕全文（263 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. | 欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。 |
| 2 | I'm Janette Jaleel. | 我是珍妮特・贾莱尔。 |
| 3 | And joining me from Washington | 从华盛顿加入我 |
| 4 | is our State Department correspondent, Tom Bateman. | 是国务院通讯员 汤姆·贝特曼 |
| 5 | And after weeks when President Trump kept promising | 在特朗普总统坚持承诺数周后 |
| 6 | that a peace deal with Iran was close, | 与伊朗的和约已接近, |
| 7 | only for those hopes to be dashed, | 只为希望破灭, |
| 8 | we finally have a deal that's been announced | 我们终于达成协议了 |
| 9 | between the US and Iran. | 美国和伊朗之间 |
| 10 | So Tom, does this mean that the Strait of Hormuz | 汤姆,这是否意味着霍尔木兹海峡 |
| 11 | will now fully reopen | 现在将重新全面开放 |
| 12 | because President Trump hailed this deal | 因为川普总统欢迎这项交易 |
| 13 | with the words, let the oil flow? | 用词,让石油流动? |
| 14 | Well, we don't know the answer to that, frankly, | 老实说,我们不知道答案 |
| 15 | because I think what we're seeing here | 因为我认为我们在这里看到的 |
| 16 | is certainly a lot of sort of celebration | 肯定有很多庆祝 |
| 17 | really from both the Americans and to some degree | 真正来自美国和某种程度上 |
| 18 | from the Iranians that they are both suggesting | 从伊朗人说 他们都暗示 |
| 19 | that they've got things that they have demanded | 他们有他们要求的东西 |
| 20 | from this deal. | 从这个交易。 |
| 21 | But until we get the actual text published | 但是,直到我们得到 实际文本发布 |
| 22 | of this agreement, it's really hard to know for certain | 这个协议 很难确定 |
| 23 | where it will lead because both sides | 因为它将引导双方 |
| 24 | {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}真的很难转动 | |
| 25 | to the extent that we're getting | 以我们得到的程度 |
| 26 | quite contradictory messages over it. | 与此相当矛盾的信息。 |
| 27 | Now, from what was being briefed by the administration | 现在,从行政部门的情况介绍来看 |
| 28 | here in Washington late last week, | 上周下旬在华盛顿这里 |
| 29 | clearly the primary purpose of this agreement | 协定的主要目的 |
| 30 | is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz | 重新开放霍尔木兹海峡 |
| 31 | in return for the Americans lifting their naval blockade. | 以换取美国人解除海军封锁 |
| 32 | But I would say already we're seeing some discrepancies | 但我会说我们已经看到一些差异 |
| 33 | between the two sides over even what reopening | 双方就连重新开放的东西 |
| 34 | the Strait of Hormuz actually means. | 荷尔穆兹海峡实际上意味着。 |
| 35 | President Trump has gone on social media | 特朗普总统已经进入社交媒体 |
| 36 | to say the strait is now open, the ships are passing, | 说海峡已经开通了 船正在经过 |
| 37 | but the Iranians have said that they will | 但伊朗人说,他们会 |
| 38 | or they intend to impose what they're calling | 或者他们打算强制他们所说的 |
| 39 | service charges for ships passing. | 过往船只的服务费。 |
| 40 | The Americans will interpret that as tolls, | 美国人会把费用解释为 |
| 41 | which they have said are not part of this agreement. | 他们说过的不是协议的一部分 |
| 42 | There will not be tolls imposed by the Iranians. | 伊朗人不会造成任何损失。 |
| 43 | So already that sticking point appears | 所以,已经出现了粘点 |
| 44 | to be coming into friction | 进入摩擦 |
| 45 | as this agreement is being announced. | 由于该协议正在宣布之中。 |
| 46 | Right, and also you've got to clear the mines | 对,你也要清除地雷 |
| 47 | and you've got to move those hundreds of ships | 还要搬走那几百艘船 |
| 48 | that have been stuck there for weeks. | 被困在那里好几个星期了 |
| 49 | So even if ships were allowed to start moving again | 所以即使船只被允许再次移动 |
| 50 | immediately without any restrictions, | 立即没有任何限制, |
| 51 | it would take weeks, possibly months, | 可能需要几周,可能几个月, |
| 52 | for things to get back to normal | 让事情恢复正常 |
| 53 | when it comes to oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. | 在石油和液化天然气供应方面。 |
| 54 | Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. | 是的,我认为这是绝对正确的。 |
| 55 | I mean, the Iranians had said on Sunday | 我是说 伊朗人星期天说 |
| 56 | that there would be a 30-day period | 30天时间 |
| 57 | that it would take that time for the strait to reopen. | 海峡需要时间才能重新开放。 |
| 58 | And of course, there is this whole issue of demining | 当然还有整个排雷问题 |
| 59 | that the Americans have referred to. | 美国人已经提到。 |
| 60 | When President Trump initially announced the deal, | 当特朗普总统最初宣布交易时, |
| 61 | he said, as you said, the sort of proclamation I hear by | 他说,就像你说的, 我听到的那种宣布 |
| 62 | announced the strait is open | 宣布海峡已打开 |
| 63 | and let the ships start up their motors and the oil flow. | 并让船只启动他们的发动机和油流。 |
| 64 | Just an hour later, he sent another message saying | 一小时后,他又发了一条信息 |
| 65 | that the strait would actually reopen on Friday | 海峡实际上将在星期五重新开放 |
| 66 | when the deal is due to be signed in Geneva. | 当交易将在日内瓦签署。 |
| 67 | So clearly things are not clear on that front. | 因此,显然这方面情况并不清楚。 |
| 68 | This has been a highly militarized environment. | 这是一个高度军事化的环境。 |
| 69 | There's a huge amount of American hardware | 有很多美国硬件 |
| 70 | in and around the area. | 和周围的区域。 |
| 71 | Ships have been unable to pass basically | 船基本上无法通过 |
| 72 | because they can't get the insurance coverage | 因为他们得不到保险金 |
| 73 | because of the risk of Iranian drones or missile strikes. | 由于伊朗无人机或导弹袭击的风险. |
| 74 | So clearly a lot to take place really before | 很明显,很多事情发生之前 |
| 75 | the shipping industry fills | 航运业 |
| 76 | that necessary sense of security. | 那种必要的安全感。 |
| 77 | And Tom, the agreement's not due to be signed | 汤姆,协议没有签订 |
| 78 | until Friday the 19th in Switzerland. | 直到周五 19日在瑞士。 |
| 79 | A lot could change between now and then. | 从那时到那时,很多事情可能会改变 |
| 80 | Yeah, I think that's a really interesting point actually | 是啊,我觉得这是一个真正有趣的点 |
| 81 | because although this is being pitched | 因为虽然这个是布置的 |
| 82 | and sold by both sides as a basically | 被双方卖掉 |
| 83 | a sort of comprehensive deal to end the war, | 一种结束战争的全面交易, |
| 84 | the Pakistani mediators, Shabazz Sharif, | 巴基斯坦调解人沙巴兹·谢里夫 |
| 85 | the prime minister's called this a peace deal. | 总理称这是和平协议 |
| 86 | It's already clear that there is within this talks | 已经很清楚了 这场会谈中 |
| 87 | this week that are supposed to set up | 这周应该设置 |
| 88 | what they're calling technical talks | 他们所谓的技术会谈 |
| 89 | that should take place from Friday | 应于星期五举行 |
| 90 | lasting a couple of months | 持续几个月 |
| 91 | about the implementation of this deal. | 协议的执行情况。 |
| 92 | So you've already got talks about talks | 所以,你已经谈了 |
| 93 | with the deal not being actually signed yet. | 交易还没有签署 |
| 94 | And already I think the sense of discrepancies | 我已经觉得 差异感 |
| 95 | even about the most basic issues | 甚至关于最基本的问题 |
| 96 | in terms of reopening the Strait of Hormuz | 就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡而言 |
| 97 | and lifting the naval blockade. | 并解除海军封锁 |
| 98 | So there's clearly scope for things to go wrong. | 因此,事情发生错误有明显的余地. |
| 99 | It does feel like there's momentum | 感觉好像有动力 |
| 100 | towards signing it on Friday. | 在周五签署。 |
| 101 | I think both sides are ready for that. | 我想双方都准备好了 |
| 102 | But the question is then, | 但问题是 |
| 103 | and what we've seen on the ground and on the water | 以及我们在地面和水上看到的一切 |
| 104 | is we've had ceasefires. | 我们已经停火了 |
| 105 | There was a ceasefire announced on April the 8th. | 4月8日宣布停火. |
| 106 | And yet, and President Trump said then | 然而,川普总统说 |
| 107 | the Strait of Hormuz will now be opened. | 霍尔木兹海峡现在将开放。 |
| 108 | It wasn't. | 事实并非如此。 |
| 109 | The Iranians have demanded sanctions relief, | 伊朗人要求解除制裁, |
| 110 | have demanded, say that this will allow them access | 已经要求,说这将允许他们进入 |
| 111 | immediately to oil revenues. | 立即给石油收入 |
| 112 | They say they're not gonna enter into those 60 days | 他们说他们不会进入这60天 |
| 113 | of talks unless the Americans honor that | 除非美国人尊重 |
| 114 | and they get some of their money upfront. | 他们先拿到钱 |
| 115 | The Americans are denying that's the case. | 美国人否认了 |
| 116 | So we just don't know. | 所以我们只是不知道。 |
| 117 | And clearly there is, as I say again, | 我再说一遍,显然有 |
| 118 | so much discrepancy about the way | 这条路相差甚远 |
| 119 | this agreement is being characterized | 该协议的特点 |
| 120 | until we get to see the actual published text. | 直到我们看到 实际出版的文本。 |
| 121 | I think it's really hard to know definitively | 我觉得很难确定 |
| 122 | where this agreement has landed, | 协议落地时, |
| 123 | but clearly there is scope already, | 但显然已经存在余地了, |
| 124 | I think, for things to start to go wrong with it. | 我认为,事情开始 出了问题。 |
| 125 | If Iran succeeds in its aim of getting | 如果伊朗成功实现以下目标: |
| 126 | international sanctions lifted | 解除国际制裁 |
| 127 | or some kind of relief on those sanctions, | 或对这些制裁的某种缓解, |
| 128 | and if it succeeds in its aims of getting | 并且如果它成功地达到达到 |
| 129 | its billions of dollars frozen in bank accounts abroad | * 冻结国外银行账户数十亿美元 |
| 130 | released, then people will be saying, | 然后人们就说: |
| 131 | what was the point of this war? | 这场战争的意义是什么? |
| 132 | It's actually not even gone back to the status quo. | 实际上,它甚至没有回到现状。 |
| 133 | It's worse than it was before in terms | 比以前还糟糕 |
| 134 | of the Iranian regime's influence and strength. | 伊朗政权的影响力和实力。 |
| 135 | Well, I mean, the overarching aim for President Trump | 川普总统的首要目标 |
| 136 | has been he has said to deny Iran the ability | 据说他否认伊朗的能力 |
| 137 | ever to develop or acquire a nuclear weapon. | 研制或获取核武器。 |
| 138 | Now, when the war was announced, | 现在,当战争宣布时, |
| 139 | he went much further than that. | 他走得更远了 |
| 140 | He effectively said and called for regime change, | 他有效地说并呼吁更换政权, |
| 141 | a collapse of the entire current governance structures | 整个现有治理结构的崩溃 |
| 142 | that had been in place since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, | 自1979年伊斯兰革命以来, |
| 143 | and to basically get a sort of pliant | 并基本上得到 某种言语 |
| 144 | US-friendly administration into Iran | 对伊朗的美国友好政府 |
| 145 | that would do what the US administration wanted. | 这会做美国政府想要的。 |
| 146 | Fundamentally, I think if you look at the way this began, | 基本上,我认为如果你看看 事情的开始, |
| 147 | I don't think the Americans were entirely in control | 我觉得美国人并不完全控制 |
| 148 | of the timing of this. | 时间。 |
| 149 | Clearly, although they deny this, | 显然,他们否认这一点, |
| 150 | there had been some element of persuasion by the Israelis | 以色列人进行了一些说服 |
| 151 | who killed the Supreme Leader on day one. | 他在第一天杀了最高领袖 |
| 152 | What seems to be in this deal broadly | 这份交易的大致内容 |
| 153 | is a set of commitments or broad understandings | 是一套承诺或广泛谅解 |
| 154 | from either side about both Iran committing | 关于伊朗双方所犯 |
| 155 | not to develop a nuclear weapon or to acquire one, | 不发展核武器或获取核武器, |
| 156 | but it has always said that. | 但是它一直这么说 |
| 157 | The issue has been around how you get a programme in place | 问题在于你是如何制定方案 |
| 158 | to make that happen and crucially to verify it. | 要做到这一点,关键是核实这一点。 |
| 159 | Now, that is what the Obama administration tried to do | 这就是奥巴马政府试图做的 |
| 160 | in the deal that was signed 2015, 2016. | 在2015年,2016年签订的协议中。 |
| 161 | President Trump violated the terms of that | 特朗普总统违反了这一条款 |
| 162 | when he was during his first term, | 当他在第一个任期内, |
| 163 | effectively withdrew the US from it, | 有效地把美国从它撤出, |
| 164 | reapplied sanctions onto the Iranians, | 重新对伊朗人实施制裁, |
| 165 | even though the inspector said | 虽然督察说 |
| 166 | the Iranians were in compliance. | 伊朗人遵守了规定。 |
| 167 | And so that is why the administration is saying | 所以政府才说 |
| 168 | that the application of force, | 使用武力, |
| 169 | bombing the Iranians, has forced them to do, | 轰炸伊朗人,迫使他们这样做, |
| 170 | has given the Americans the leverage they want | 给了美国人他们想要的筹码 |
| 171 | to ensure that they get a stronger deal this time round. | 确保他们得到一个更强大的交易 这次回合。 |
| 172 | But what officials who worked under the Obama administration, | 但是在奥巴马政府手下工作的官员 |
| 173 | notably Rob Malley, who was the lead negotiator | 特别是罗布·马利,他是首席谈判员 |
| 174 | for the 2015 nuclear deal, | 2015年核协议, |
| 175 | their argument is that the Trump administration | 他们的论点是川普政府 |
| 176 | is now in a worse position | 现在情况更糟了 |
| 177 | than it was before they started this war, | 比起他们发动战争之前 |
| 178 | because what Iran has shown is it can resist | 因为伊朗已经表明它能够抵抗 |
| 179 | this full force by the Americans and the Israelis. | 美国人和以色列人的这支全副武装 |
| 180 | It's still intact, | 它仍然完好无损 |
| 181 | although very much eroded conventionally, | 虽然在传统意义上受到很大的侵蚀, |
| 182 | but it's shown that it can effectively hold | 但已经证明它能有效支撑 |
| 183 | the global economy to ransom. | 全球经济的赎金。 |
| 184 | That creates huge leverage. | 这创造了巨大的杠杆。 |
| 185 | And so there is a big argument, | 所以有一个很大的争论, |
| 186 | and actually a concern among many Republicans, | 事实上是许多共和党人关心的 |
| 187 | that President Trump is gonna end up | 川普总统终究会死 |
| 188 | with potentially an even weaker deal than the 2015 one. | 可能比2015年还弱 |
| 189 | Now, the administration completely rejects that | 现在,政府完全拒绝 |
| 190 | and says this will be a tougher and stronger deal. | 并说这将是 一个更艰难和更有力的交易。 |
| 191 | I think a big test will be in the measure | 我想一个大测试是衡量的 |
| 192 | of how long President Trump says that they can prohibit, | 特朗普总统说他们可以禁止多久 |
| 193 | and verifiably so, Iran from enriching uranium, | 并且可以核查,伊朗从浓缩铀, |
| 194 | nuclear material, to potentially weapons-grade material. | 核材料、潜在武器级材料。 |
| 195 | The Obama deal basically stopped that for 10 to 15 years. | 奥巴马协议基本上停止了10到15年。 |
| 196 | President Trump has said he could live | 川普总统说他可以活下去 |
| 197 | with a 20-year prohibition. | 有20年的禁令。 |
| 198 | Is he gonna get anything like that? | 他会得到类似的东西吗? |
| 199 | Well, already he's sort of rowing back a bit | 嗯,他已经有点划回去了 |
| 200 | on that as being an objective here. | 作为目标在这里。 |
| 201 | And Tom, as you say, a lot of people say | 汤姆,你说,很多人说 |
| 202 | that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu | 以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡 |
| 203 | was a big instigator of this war. | 曾经是这场战争的大煽动者 |
| 204 | It was a war that was jointly launched by the US and Israel. | 这是美国和以色列联合发动的战争。 |
| 205 | And now critics of Mr. Netanyahu are saying | 现在批评内塔尼亚胡先生的人说 |
| 206 | that Israel is a big loser from this war, | 以色列是这场战争的失败者, |
| 207 | because Mr. Netanyahu has failed to achieve his aims | 因为内塔尼亚胡先生未能实现他的目标 |
| 208 | of changing the Iranian regime, | 改变伊朗政权, |
| 209 | destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon, | 摧毁黎巴嫩境内的真主党, |
| 210 | and this is not going to help his hopes | 这无助于他的希望 |
| 211 | of being re-elected later this year. | 今年晚些时候再次当选。 |
| 212 | Yes, absolutely. | 是的,当然。 |
| 213 | Critics, not least, Mr. Netanyahu's political opponents | 批评者,尤其是内塔尼亚胡先生的政治对手 |
| 214 | in Israel who, and we're recording this | 在以色列,谁,我们正在记录这个 |
| 215 | on the Monday morning, been waking up today | 星期一早上,今天醒来 |
| 216 | to news of this proposed deal, | 给这个协议的消息, |
| 217 | or this deal by the Americans and the Iranians, | 或者美国人和伊朗人的这笔交易, |
| 218 | and are absolutely excoriating Mr. Netanyahu, | 并绝对地激怒了内塔尼亚胡先生, |
| 219 | saying that this is an utter failure. | 说这是彻底的失败。 |
| 220 | They believe it risks Israel's security, | 他们认为这危及以色列的安全 |
| 221 | because it's effectively the worst combination of things | 因为实际上这是最糟糕的组合 |
| 222 | for some of the critics of this deal, | 对于这个交易的一些批评者, |
| 223 | particularly in Israel, who believe that the war, | 特别是在以色列 他们相信战争, |
| 224 | who will point out the war has failed | 谁会指出战争失败了 |
| 225 | to dislodge the Iranian regime, | 推翻伊朗政权, |
| 226 | but at the same time created leverage in a deal | 但同时也在交易中创造了影响力 |
| 227 | where they are arguably putting more pressure on Mr. Trump | 他们给特朗普先生施加了更大的压力 |
| 228 | than was the case in the first place. | 比起一开始的情况 |
| 229 | And therefore, Mr. Netanyahu's opponents | 因此,内塔尼亚胡先生的对手 |
| 230 | are saying that this is a failure. | 说这是失败。 |
| 231 | Now, that is important really for two reasons. | 这很重要 有两个原因 |
| 232 | One is that you have in Lebanon Hezbollah | 一是你们在黎巴嫩有真主党 |
| 233 | as an armed and funded ally of the Iranian regime | 作为伊朗政权武装和资助盟友 |
| 234 | that effectively acts as a deterrent force | 有效发挥威慑力量的作用 |
| 235 | for the Israelis attacking Iran. | 给攻击伊朗的以色列人 |
| 236 | That war, there's no clear sign | 那场战争,没有明显的征兆 |
| 237 | that that war is coming to an end, | 战争即将结束 |
| 238 | even though the Iranians and the Pakistani mediators | 虽然伊朗人和巴基斯坦调解人 |
| 239 | have said that that will be included in the ceasefire. | 已表示,这将列入停火。 |
| 240 | I think it's clearly gonna be the case | 我想这显然会是这样 |
| 241 | and the Israelis are already demanding | 以色列人已经要求 |
| 242 | that they have, in the language they put it, | 他们有,用他们的语言, |
| 243 | the right to defend themselves against a Hezbollah threat. | 保护自己不受真主党威胁的权利。 |
| 244 | Now, they have interpreted that | 现在,他们已经解释 |
| 245 | as basically being a sort of one-sided ceasefire, | 基本上是一种片面停火, |
| 246 | where Hezbollah does not fire on the Israelis, | 真主党不向以色列人开火, |
| 247 | but Israel continues its occupation of southern Lebanon | 但是以色列继续占领黎巴嫩南部 |
| 248 | and has continued, even though a ceasefire | 并且继续,尽管停火 |
| 249 | has been agreed with Lebanon to attack Hezbollah, | 已与黎巴嫩商定攻击真主党, |
| 250 | it says because Hezbollah has been planning | 它说,因为真主党一直在计划 |
| 251 | or has fired into northern Israel. | 或已经向以色列北部开火。 |
| 252 | The other big issue politically for Mr. Netanyahu | 内塔尼亚胡先生的另一个政治大问题 |
| 253 | is he's facing reelection at the end of this year. | 他今年年底将面临连任 |
| 254 | Now, as most Israelis have supported the war with Iran, | 现在,由于大多数以色列人都支持与伊朗的战争, |
| 255 | as that war has looked, when it has looked | 战争看起来,当它看起来 |
| 256 | as though it's achieving some of the Israeli objectives, | 似乎它正在实现以色列的一些目标, |
| 257 | that has helped Mr. Netanyahu's support, | 这帮助了内塔尼亚胡先生的支持, |
| 258 | but I think this is really gonna damage him in the polls | 但我觉得这真的会让他在民调中受伤 |
| 259 | in terms of going into that election, | 就参加这次选举而言, |
| 260 | probably in October this year. | 大概今年十月的时候 |
| 261 | Tom, thank you very much. | 汤姆,非常感谢 |
| 262 | And if you'd like to hear more from the Global News podcast, | 如果你想听听全球新闻播客的更多消息 |
| 263 | please click on the link. | 请点击链接。 |
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