7-11 伊朗的袭击会危及美海湾国家同盟吗？ | BBC全球

7-11 伊朗的袭击会危及美海湾国家同盟吗？ | BBC全球新闻播客

发布于 2026-07-10 · 时长 8:54

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时间	英文	中文
0:00	Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC.	欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。
0:02	I'm Janot Jalil and I'm joined from Jerusalem	我是贾诺特・贾利尔我从耶路撒冷加入
0:05	by our correspondent Barbara Plett-Asher.	我们的记者芭芭拉·普莱特·阿舍
0:08	And Barbara, the renewed violence between	和芭芭拉, 新的暴力之间
0:10	the US and Iran has seen Gulf countries again come under attack from Iranian drones and missiles.	美国和伊朗再次看到海湾国家受到伊朗无人机和导弹的袭击。
0:19	What's the reaction been in the region?	该地区有什么反应?
0:21	Well, I mean, it's put the Gulf states back on the front line, hasn't it?	我的意思是,它把海湾国家回到前线,不是吗?
0:25	There had been	曾经有过
0:26	violence before after the ceasefire deal was signed, but this one has been much more extensive	停火协议签订前的暴力事件,
0:31	and much more damaging.	更具有破坏力

展开字幕全文（163 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC.	欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。
2	I'm Janot Jalil and I'm joined from Jerusalem	我是贾诺特・贾利尔我从耶路撒冷加入
3	by our correspondent Barbara Plett-Asher.	我们的记者芭芭拉·普莱特·阿舍
4	And Barbara, the renewed violence between	和芭芭拉, 新的暴力之间
5	the US and Iran has seen Gulf countries again come under attack from Iranian drones and missiles.	美国和伊朗再次看到海湾国家受到伊朗无人机和导弹的袭击。
6	What's the reaction been in the region?	该地区有什么反应?
7	Well, I mean, it's put the Gulf states back on the front line, hasn't it?	我的意思是,它把海湾国家回到前线,不是吗?
8	There had been	曾经有过
9	violence before after the ceasefire deal was signed, but this one has been much more extensive	停火协议签订前的暴力事件,
10	and much more damaging.	更具有破坏力
11	You've had on the US side more than 170 targets in Iran.	你在美国方面在伊朗有170多个目标。
12	And from the	从
13	Iranian side, they have fired missiles and drones at what they said were US targets in Bahrain and	伊朗方面,他们向在巴林的美国目标发射导弹和无人机。
14	Kuwait and Qatar, even Jordan, which is not usually in the line of fire.	科威特和卡塔尔,甚至约旦,通常不位于火线上.
15	Now, almost all	现在,几乎全部
16	of those were intercepted, but still this is really quite alarming and frustrating for Iran's	但对于伊朗,
17	because first of all, it raises the specter of a return to war.	因为首先,它引起了战争复辟的隐蔽性。
18	And these countries, their economies	这些国家,他们的经济
19	are still struggling to recover from the war itself.	仍然在努力从战争中恢复过来。
20	You know, the hit on the oil and gas	你知道,油气的打击
21	industry, the tourism, the international travel, all of that is still struggling to recover.	工业、旅游业、国际旅行,所有这一切仍在艰难地复苏。
22	And	还有
23	the other thing is this is upending efforts to try to open the Strait of Hormuz, which is very	另一件事是,这是在努力打开霍尔木兹海峡,这是非常
24	essential for the oil and gas industry exports as well.	对石油和天然气工业出口也至关重要。
25	Now, this all started with Iran targeting	现在,这一切开始于伊朗的目标
26	a number of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including some from the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.	霍尔木兹海峡的多艘船只,包括一些来自海湾,沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔的船只.
27	That prompted a very angry call from the Qatari prime minister to the Iranian foreign minister,	这引起了卡塔尔总理对伊朗外交部长的愤怒呼吁,
28	but he also had phone calls with other regional leaders urging a return to diplomacy because	但他也曾与其他区域领导人通电话,敦促恢复外交,因为
29	they really are very desperate to contain this.	他们真的非常渴望控制这一点。
30	So this is exposed just how vulnerable the Gulf	这暴露了海湾的脆弱程度
31	states are to Iran.	国家是伊朗。
32	Iran says it's attacking them because they host US bases.	伊朗说,它袭击他们因为他们有美国基地。
33	Do you think	你觉得
34	there's a chance that some of these states at least could be reconsidering their relationship	有些州至少可以重新考虑他们的关系
35	with the US and perhaps asking US troops to leave?	和美军,也许要求美军离开?
36	Well, I think they might consider expanding their	我想他们可以考虑扩大
37	security alliances.	安全联盟。
38	So for example, during the war, they really talked up the support they were	所以,比如在战争期间, 他们真的谈起他们的支持
39	getting from European and British militaries.	从欧洲和英国军队得到的
40	But frankly, to be realistic, they have invested a lot	老实说,他们投入了很多
41	into the US security umbrella and there isn't really an equal alternative anywhere.	进入美国的安全保护伞, 没有一个真正的平等的选择任何地方。
42	So China,	所以中国
43	for example, is their biggest economic partner, but it doesn't offer the same kind of military	比方说,是他们最大的经济伙伴,但它不提供同样的军事类型
44	alternative.	备选案文。
45	Neither does Russia.	俄罗斯也没有
46	And also the way they were attacked by Iran.	以及他们遭到伊朗攻击的方式。
47	Iran wasn't just	伊朗不仅仅是
48	hitting US military infrastructure.	袭击了美国的军事基础设施。
49	The Gulf state said it was also hitting civilian infrastructure	海湾国家说它也袭击了民用基础设施
50	and residential areas.	居住区。
51	And so to some degree, at least during the war, that was helping them to	因此,在某种程度上,至少在战争期间, 这是帮助他们
52	close ranks with the US.	与美国保持紧密联系。
53	Now, having said that, the MOU, the Iran-US ceasefire deal, doesn't	现在,说到这一点, 谅解备忘录,伊朗 - 美国停火协议,没有
54	address one of their main concerns, which is Iran's ballistic missile program.	伊朗弹道导弹计划是伊朗的主要关切之一。
55	Because the Gulf states and also Israel have been at the receiving end of these missiles	因为海湾各国和以色列一直处于这些导弹的接收端
56	and they really wanted this to be part of negotiations to end the war.	他们真的希望这成为结束战争的谈判的一部分。
57	But it's not	不过不是
58	mentioned at all.	完全没有提及。
59	And that is something that the Gulf states really see as an omission.	这是海湾国家真正视为遗漏的东西。
60	And also you've had now two escalations, this one quite severe, and that sort of increases	而且你现在有两次升级, 一次相当严重, 那种增加
61	their worst fear, which is maybe there won't be able to be an ultimate resolution between the US	他们最可怕的恐惧, 也就是也许美国之间不可能有最终的解决办法
62	and Iran.	与伊朗有关。
63	Maybe it will continue in this sort of vein of stop and start violence.	也许它会继续以这种停止和开始暴力。
64	And so	这样
65	that would mean that the region would remain volatile.	这意味着该区域将仍然动荡不安。
66	And let's say this stop and start	让我们说,停止和开始
67	violence does continue.	暴力确实仍在继续。
68	What is the likely impact on the oil and gas exports of the Gulf states?	海湾各国的石油和天然气出口可能受到什么影响?
69	Well, it's really going to be detrimental to that.	那真的会很不利
70	So what's happened is the memorandum of	事情是这样的
71	understanding between the Iran and the US says that Iran will allow the passage of vessels	伊朗和美国之间的谅解说,伊朗将允许船只通行。
72	through the Strait of Hormuz.	穿过霍尔木兹海峡.
73	But the main route is not usable because of mines.	但主要路线由于地雷而无法使用.
74	And the Iranians	还有伊朗人
75	have committed to removing those mines.	已承诺排除这些地雷。
76	But in the meantime, they have said, you've got to use this	但与此同时他们说你得用这个
77	next to our coastline.	我们的海岸线旁边
78	Now across the Strait is Oman.	现在跨海峡的是阿曼.
79	And it has also opened a route together with	同时还开辟了一条路线
80	the International Maritime Organization, an alternate route.	国际海事组织,一条替代路线。
81	And the US has been providing	美国一直提供
82	air cover for that.	空中掩护
83	And the Iranians say, well, that alternate route hasn't been approved by us.	而伊朗人说,那条替代路线没有得到我们的批准。
84	And therefore they have been hitting ships that have been taking that Omani route, including the	因此,他们一直在打击正在沿阿曼航线航行的船只,包括
85	Saudis and the Qataris.	沙特人与卡塔尔人.
86	And so now what's happened is that the IMO, the International Maritime	所以现在发生的事情是海事组织,国际海洋
87	Organization, is advising that people should stop using the strait, that the ships should	该组织建议人们停止使用海峡,
88	stop going through the strait at this point.	此时停止通过海峡。
89	This is the main export route for gas and oil	这是天然气和石油的主要出口路线
90	from Saudi Arabia and Qatar.	沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔。
91	In particular, Qatar doesn't really have another route to export its	特别是卡塔尔没有另一条出口路线
92	liquefied natural gas.	液化天然气.
93	So this is an economic, existential economic issue for them.	因此,对于他们来说,这是一个经济,生存的经济问题.
94	I think what	我觉得怎样
95	probably will happen is that this will accelerate efforts which have already been underway to	这可能将会是,这将加速已经展开的努力。
96	diversify, that is to create new routes over land from the Gulf to the Mediterranean via pipelines,	多样化,即通过管道开辟从海湾到地中海的新的陆路,
97	via railway links, and so on.	途经铁路连线等.
98	That has already begun, especially encouraged by the war because,	这已经开始了,特别是受到战争的鼓舞,因为,
99	you know, an Iranian blockade of the Hormuz Strait was always sort of seen as this doomsday	你知道,伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡一直被认为是末日
100	scenario that would never happen.	情况永远不会发生。
101	Well, it's happened.	嗯,这是发生了。
102	而现在的Hormuz精灵
103	has come out of the bottle, it can't be put back in.	已经从瓶子里出来,不能放回去
104	There will always be the risk of a closure.	永远会有结束的危险。
105	And so I think what you'll see is an acceleration of attempts to create other ways to export gas	所以,我认为你会看到的是加速尝试创造其他方式出口天然气
106	and oil because really this is absolutely crucial for the Gulf economies.	石油和石油因为这对海湾经济体是绝对关键的
107	Weren't the Gulf countries	不是海湾国家
108	supposed to be involved in sourcing out the administration of the strait?	是否应该参与寻找海峡的管理者?
109	Yes, they were.	是的,他们是。
110	What the MOU said is that Iran should meet with Oman and other countries that are along the coast	谅解备忘录指出,伊朗应与阿曼和其他沿海国家会晤。
111	line and they should come up with a protocol for the administration of the Strait of Hormuz in line	他们应该想出一个协议来管理霍尔木兹海峡
112	with international law and in line with the rights of coastal states.	与国际法相一致并符合沿海国的权利。
113	And in fact, that had already	事实上,这已经
114	started.	开始。
115	The Qatari Prime Minister visited Oman last month to try and get those negotiations	卡塔尔总理上个月访问阿曼,试图争取这些谈判
116	underway.	正在进行中。
117	And at the time, diplomats said the main issue was that question about the transit fee.	当时,外交官们说,主要问题是关于过境费的问题。
118	So	这么说
119	there's never been a fee for ships crossing through the Strait of Hormuz, but there were many	穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只从未收取过任何费用,
120	indications that Iran was planning to try and put one in place.	有迹象表明,伊朗正计划尝试建立一个机构。
121	And so the Gulf countries were going	于是海湾国家开始
122	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}以对抗某种过境费
123	And it was thought that the Iranians would come up with	人们以为伊朗人会想出
124	a sort of variant, like you need to pay a fee for environmental reasons or for security reasons or	某种变体,比如因为环境原因或安全原因需要付费,或者
125	whatnot.	什么也没有。
126	But that has all been put on hold now because it's not clear if the U.S. and Iran will	但这一切都被搁置了因为不清楚美国和伊朗是否会
127	turn to negotiations.	转向谈判。
128	And without that, you're not going to have these regional sort of separate	没有这个,你就不会有这种区域类型的分离
129	streams continue.	溪流继续.
130	So it seems that the chances of a regional diplomatic solution are dimming.	因此,区域外交解决办法的机会似乎正在减少。
131	I think that's a good way to put it at this point anyway, given what we've seen in the past week.	我认为,鉴于我们在过去一周里所看到的情况,无论如何,这是一个很好的说法。
132	Now, there were reports that the Saudis were going to organize a regional summit, sort of like a	现在,有报道说沙特人准备组织一个区域首脑会议, 有点像
133	reconciliation summit, to try and mend ties between the Gulf states and Iran.	和解峰会,尝试并修复海湾国家与伊朗之间的联系。
134	And you know,	你知道吗?
135	there's a history of tense ties between Iran and the Gulf states, some Gulf states more than others.	历史上伊朗与海湾国家关系紧张,一些海湾国家比其他海湾国家多.
136	But, you know, for example, Saudi Arabia and Iran had started this rapprochement before the war.	但是,比如说,沙特阿拉伯和伊朗在战争前就已经开始了这种和解。
137	Now	现在
138	that's obviously been put on hold.	这显然被搁置。
139	And you can say that there's a lot more to mend now than there	你可以说,现在有更多的修复比那里
140	was before.	曾经是。
141	But that isn't going to happen unless there's a cessation of hostilities.	但是,除非停止敌对行动,否则这是不可能的。
142	And so really	如此真实
143	again, this regional stream is dependent on the relations between the U.S. and Iran.	这一区域流也取决于美国和伊朗之间的关系。
144	And it's not	事实并非如此
145	clear if the U.S. and Iran agreement will lead to a cessation of hostilities.	如果美国和伊朗的协议将导致停止敌对行动,那就很清楚了。
146	What this escalation	为何如此升级
147	has really exposed again is how intractable the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is.	霍尔穆兹海峡问题是多么棘手。
148	The Iranians	伊朗人
149	are determined to keep control of it because it's a really valuable card for them to be able to	他们决心控制它,因为它是他们能够拥有的非常宝贵的卡片
150	disrupt the global economy when they want to.	破坏全球经济。
151	The Americans are determined to try and stop them,	美国人决心阻止他们
152	at least respond to them when they strike ships.	至少当他们打击船只时,他们的反应。
153	But at the same time, President Trump really needs	但与此同时,川普总统确实需要
154	the Strait of Hormuz open in order to bring oil prices down.	为了降低油价,霍尔木兹海峡开放。
155	So it's believed that neither side	所以人们相信双方
156	wants a return to war.	想要重新开战
157	But at the same time, given the sort of volatile relationship and conditions,	但与此同时,鉴于这种不稳定的关系和条件,
158	it's not clear that ultimately over time they will be able to prevent one or even be willing to prevent	不清楚的是,他们最终会防止一个甚至愿意防止
159	one.	一个
160	Barbara, thank you.	芭芭拉谢谢
161	这是我们在耶路撒冷的记者Barbara Plett-Usher。
162	If you want to	如果你想的话
163	hear more from the Global News Podcast, please click on the link below.	请点击以下链接。

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