《经济学人》AI正在摧毁全球税收系统，一场超级财政风暴来了

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P1	《经济学人》AI正在摧毁全球税收系统，一场超级财政风暴来了	6:15

P1 · 《经济学人》AI正在摧毁全球税收系统，一场超级财政风暴来了 [B1] p01 原声 (P1)

《经济学人》AI正在摧毁全球税收系统，一场超级财政风暴来了 [B1] p01 原声 (P1)

发布于 2026-10-10 · 时长 6:15

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:02	Leaders	领导人
0:06	Tax reform	税务改革
0:08	A hurricane is coming.	飓风来了
0:11	Governments should be	政府应该
0:12	preparing.	准备
0:13	Unfortunately	很遗憾
0:14	most aren't.	多数不是。
0:16	The yield on tenure US	美国土地保有权的收益
0:18	treasuries has charged through	国库通过
0:20	the 5% barrier.	5%的屏障。

展开字幕全文（197 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Leaders	领导人
2	Tax reform	税务改革
3	A hurricane is coming.	飓风来了
4	Governments should be	政府应该
5	preparing.	准备
6	Unfortunately	很遗憾
7	most aren't.	多数不是。
8	The yield on tenure US	美国土地保有权的收益
9	treasuries has charged through	国库通过
10	the 5% barrier.	5%的屏障。
11	The spread between French	法语的传播
12	government bonds and German	政府债券和德国债券
13	bunds is at a level not seen	捆绑在未见的水平
14	since the Eurozone crisis in 2012.	自2012年欧元区危机以来.
15	Britain's newish	英国的新人
16	Prime Minister has this week set	总理这周安排好了
17	out a plan for spending bolstered	执行支持开支的计划
18	by a taboo-busting promise	誓以禁忌,
19	to curb state pension increases	遏制国家养老金的增加;
20	and yet is still in a	却依然在
21	fiscal pickle.	财经咸菜.
22	Across the world, countries are struggling	世界各国都在挣扎
23	to coax more growth out	以凝聚更多增长
24	of their economies, and that's not	他们的经济,这不是
25	the worst of it.	最惨的
26	As we explain	正如我们所解释的
27	this week, the tax base in	本周,税基在
28	all countries, which depends	所有国家,这取决于
29	heavily on taxing labour,	重税劳动,
30	may be upended by artificial	可由人工加固
31	intelligence.	情报
32	Add these	添加这些
33	problems together and it is	问题在一起,它是
34	as if a mighty hurricane were	就像一场强大的飓风一样
35	about to hit the rich world's tax	即将打击富裕世界的税收
36	systems, which are hopelessly	系统,无望
37	unprepared.	未备.
38	The way the state	国家的方式
39	raises money is wasteful,	筹钱是浪费,
40	unfair and perverse.	不公平和不正当。
41	You would have thought the government would be	你会认为政府会
42	scrambling to strengthen the system	为加强该系统而奋斗
43	before the hurricane makes landfall, but	在飓风登陆前
44	as ever, they are running away from	他们总是在逃避
45	tax reform instead.	相反,税制改革。
46	The accumulated flaws of modern	现代文化的累积缺陷
47	tax systems are so ubiquitous	税制如此无处不在
48	that they have become part of the economic	经济、社会、文化权利委员会
49	backdrop.	背景情况。
50	Taxes	税收
51	are full of needless complexity.	充满了不必要的复杂性。
52	In Germany, the rate of	在德国,
53	value-added tax, or VAT,	增值税,或增值税,
54	on oat milk	在燕麦牛奶上
55	is more than double that on cow's	是牛的两倍以上
56	milk, for example.	以牛奶为例.
57	Such widespread special treatment	如此广泛的特殊待遇
58	has ruinous fiscal consequences.	会带来灾难性的财政后果。
59	Across the OECD,	在整个经合组织,
60	a club of mostly rich countries,	以富国为主的俱乐部,
61	consumption taxes raise	提高消费税
62	only 58% of what they could	只能占他们所能的58%
63	if there were no carve-outs	如果没有切除
64	and no evasion.	绝不逃避。
65	Tax systems also create	税务系统也创建
66	perverse incentives.	不正当的奖励。
67	When a parent in Britain	当父母在英国
68	increases their net income from	增加收入净额
69	£99,999	9999英镑
70	that's	这是
71	$131,500	131 500美元
72	to £100,000	至 100 000英镑
73	they automatically	他们自动
74	lose free childcare	失去免费托儿服务
75	worth thousands of pounds.	价值数千英镑。
76	This can prompt some of	这可能促使一些
77	Britain's most productive workers	英国最有生产力的工人
78	to cut their hours or	缩短他们的工作时间或
79	overstuff their pensions.	超额支付他们的养老金。
80	And taxes are widely seen	税收被广泛看到
81	as unfair.	这不公平
82	In Britain, the median employee	在英国,中位员工
83	pays 55%	支付 55%
84	more tax than their	比他们的税
85	self-employed counterparts.	自营职业者。
86	Many people feel the rich	很多人都觉得有钱
87	aren't doing their bit.	不做他们该做的。
88	In California,	在加利福尼亚州
89	voters will decide in November	选民将在11月作出决定
90	whether to charge a one-off	是否收取一次性费用
91	5% levy on residents	对居民征收5%的税
92	worth wealth over $1 billion.	价值超过10亿美元
93	No one knows	没人知道
94	when the fiscal weather will turn	当财经天气变暖时
95	but rapid advances in	快速推进
96	AI could accelerate matters.	AI可以加速事情的发展。
97	Taxes on labour	劳动税
98	are the workhorse of most	是多数人的劳动者,
99	tax systems worldwide, raising	全世界税收制度,提高
100	around half of all revenue	大约占所有收入的一半
101	in the OECD.	在经合组织。
102	In the coming years, AI	未来几年,大赦国际
103	could well displace workers	很可能使工人流离失所
104	or cut their wages even as	或削减他们的工资,即使
105	corporate profits rise, shrinking	公司利润上升,收缩
106	labour's share of GDP.	劳动力占国内生产总值的比例。
107	This in turn could reduce	这反过来又会减少
108	revenues and increase	收入和增加额
109	benefits payments, making	支付养恤金
110	deficits even harder to support.	赤字更难支持。
111	Optimists may	乐观主义者可能
112	hope that super-fast growth	希望超级快速增长
113	will make the maths easier	能让数学更简单
114	to handle, yet the economist	处理,然而经济学家
115	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}看看富人会怎样
116	countries if labour's share of national	如果劳动力占国家劳动力的比例
117	income fell by 10 points.	收入下降了10个百分点。
118	By our calculations,	根据我们的计算
119	Italy's budget deficit	意大利的预算赤字
120	would double as a share of GDP	占国内生产总值的两倍
121	and Germany and France would	德国和法国将:
122	not fare much better.	也没那么好
123	In addition, the capacity for	此外,还具备以下能力:
124	tax avoidance would no longer	避税不再
125	be limited by human ingenuity.	受人类智慧的限制
126	Point countless	点数不胜数
127	AI agents at Britain's	在英国的AI特工
128	23,000-page	23 000页
129	tax code and hundreds	税法和数百
130	of new tax avoidance strategies	新的避税战略
131	are likely to emerge, and	很可能出现,
132	don't bet on the Treasury to keep up.	别赌国库能跟上
133	What to do?	怎么办?
134	Given that AI is likely to	鉴于大赦国际可能
135	mint vast fortunes for	薄荷巨资
136	a select few, countries	少数国家
137	may be inclined to follow California's	可能倾向于跟随加州
138	proposal and introduce wealth	提议和引进财富
139	taxes.	税收。
140	Yet such taxes	然而,这种税收
141	will probably backfire	可能会反射
142	either because they are too difficult	或者是因为他们太困难了
143	to administer or because they cause	或因为造成
144	rich people to flee.	有钱人要逃走
145	Previous attempts have proved unworkable.	以前的努力证明是行不通的。
146	In 1990, 12	1990年,12个
147	rich countries taxed fortunes	富国征税的财富
148	today just four do.	今天只有四个
149	A more fundamental overhaul	更彻底的整顿
150	is needed.	需要帮助。
151	Wealth	财富
152	should be taxed more via	应多通过下列方式征税:
153	capital gains taxes, which	资本收益税,其中
154	currently over-penalise normal	目前超额处罚正常
155	returns and under-tax	返回和税负
156	supernormal ones.	超寻常的
157	A start would be to introduce a	一个开始是引入
158	higher headline rate and	较高的头条率和
159	allowances that exempt normal	豁免正常津贴
160	returns.	返回。
161	At the same time,	同时,
162	the burden on labour should	劳工的负担应当
163	lighten.	轻点
164	That would be	这将是
165	against disruption from AI	反对干扰大赦国际的工作
166	and remove an obstacle to employment	消除就业障碍;
167	in countries where labour taxes	劳工税的国家
168	are crushing.	正在粉碎。
169	In Belgium	在比利时
170	they constitute 52% of the	占就业人数的52%
171	costs of employing a person.	雇用人员的费用。
172	Consumption should be	消费应该是
173	taxed more heavily, with a	更重的税,有一个
174	focus on ending the litany of	专注于结束一整串
175	exemptions.	豁免。
176	That would have	那会是
177	the useful side effect of taxing	征税的有益副作用
178	the spending of the very rich.	有钱人的钱
179	This might not curb the influence	这也许无法抑制影响
180	Elon Musk can buy, but	埃隆·穆斯克可以买,但是
181	it would ensure the state gets a bigger cut	这会确保国家得到更大的削减
182	when Mr Musk buys another	当Musk先生买到另一个
183	plane.	飞机
184	Finally,	终于
185	codes should be radically	代码应该绝对
186	simplified.	简化。
187	None of this	没有这些
188	will be easy.	很简单
189	The losers	输家
190	will hiss more loudly than the winners	他的声响比胜利者大,
191	will cheer, but change is	将欢呼,但改变是
192	coming, like it or not.	来,喜欢与否。
193	The country that gets ahead	领先的国家
194	of the hurricane will one day thank	有一天会感谢
195	the politicians who had the foresight	有远见的政客
196	to act.	行动起来
197	Change is coming, like it or not. The country that gets ahead of the hurricane will one day thank the politicians who had the foresight to act.	变化即将到来, 喜欢与否。赶在飓风前的国家将有一天感谢那些有远见采取行动的政治家。

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