6-25 耗资千亿打了一场仗，特朗普却签回了翻版的“奥巴马伊
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. | 欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。 |
| 0:02 | I'm Celia Hatton. | 我是西莉亚·哈顿 |
| 0:03 | And today I'm joined by our diplomatic correspondent, | 今天我和外交记者一起 |
| 0:06 | Paul Adams. | 保罗·亚当斯. |
| 0:07 | Paul, there's still so much to be decided | 保罗,还有好多事要决定 |
| 0:09 | as the US and Iran try to hammer out a nuclear agreement | 美国和伊朗试图达成核协议 |
| 0:13 | as part of their extended ceasefire. | 作为其延长停火的一部分。 |
| 0:15 | What are the main sticking points we're seeing now? | 我们现在看到的要点是什么? |
| 0:19 | Well, I think Celia, it's probably worth just looking | 我觉得西莉亚 也许值得看看 |
| 0:21 | at what the memorandum of understanding | 谅解备忘录的内容 |
展开字幕全文（239 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. | 欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。 |
| 2 | I'm Celia Hatton. | 我是西莉亚·哈顿 |
| 3 | And today I'm joined by our diplomatic correspondent, | 今天我和外交记者一起 |
| 4 | Paul Adams. | 保罗·亚当斯. |
| 5 | Paul, there's still so much to be decided | 保罗,还有好多事要决定 |
| 6 | as the US and Iran try to hammer out a nuclear agreement | 美国和伊朗试图达成核协议 |
| 7 | as part of their extended ceasefire. | 作为其延长停火的一部分。 |
| 8 | What are the main sticking points we're seeing now? | 我们现在看到的要点是什么? |
| 9 | Well, I think Celia, it's probably worth just looking | 我觉得西莉亚 也许值得看看 |
| 10 | at what the memorandum of understanding | 谅解备忘录的内容 |
| 11 | that was signed last week actually says | 上星期签的字 |
| 12 | about the nuclear issue. | 关于核问题。 |
| 13 | It's not a great deal, but it is important. | 虽然不是很多,但很重要。 |
| 14 | It says that Iran reaffirms that it will not attempt | 它说,伊朗重申不会试图 |
| 15 | to develop or procure a nuclear weapon. | 研制或获取核武器。 |
| 16 | That's something that Iran has been doing, frankly, | 坦率地说,伊朗一直在这样做。 |
| 17 | since the 1970s. | 从1970年代开始 |
| 18 | So that's not really new, | 所以,这不是真正的新, |
| 19 | but it is an important statement nonetheless. | 但这是一个重要的声明。 |
| 20 | Then it says that the two sides agree, | 然后说双方同意 |
| 21 | and I'm going to quote here because it's, you know, | 我要在这里引用 因为,你知道, |
| 22 | it's important to get the language right. | 重要的是要让语言正确。 |
| 23 | The two sides agreed to resolve the disposition | 双方同意解决处理问题 |
| 24 | of stockpiled enriched material. | 储存的浓缩材料。 |
| 25 | That is a reference to the estimated 440 kilograms | 这指的是估计的440公斤 |
| 26 | of uranium hexafluoride, which has been enriched | 六氟化铀 |
| 27 | to around 60%, highly enriched uranium, essentially, | 大约60%, 高浓缩铀,基本上, |
| 28 | plus other amounts enriched to lower levels. | 加上浓缩到较低水平的其他金额。 |
| 29 | And then returning to the quote, | 然后回到引语中 |
| 30 | with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site | 最低方法在现场进行稀释 |
| 31 | under supervision of the IAEA. | 由原子能机构监督。 |
| 32 | In other words, that that highly enriched uranium | 换言之,高浓缩铀 |
| 33 | needs to be reduced in its strength, | 需要减少兵力, |
| 34 | either through downblending as it's known in the business | 要么通过淡化 众所周知的生意 |
| 35 | in Iran or somewhere else. | 在伊朗或别的地方。 |
| 36 | And that is the key to the lifting of sanctions. | 这是解除制裁的关键。 |
| 37 | As for Iran's future right or ability to enrich uranium, | 关于伊朗今后浓缩铀的权利或能力, |
| 38 | that will be the subject of a final agreement. | 这将成为最后协议的主题。 |
| 39 | The two sides, the US and Iran, | 美国和伊朗双方, |
| 40 | seem to be in deadlock on one big issue, | 似乎在一个大问题上陷入僵局, |
| 41 | and that's allowing international inspectors | 允许国际检查员 |
| 42 | to visit Iranian nuclear sites. | 访问伊朗核场址。 |
| 43 | What have they been saying? | 他们一直在说什么? |
| 44 | Obviously, this will be an important part of any deal, | 显然,这将是任何交易的一个重要部分, |
| 45 | and it is perhaps the first thing that has come up | 这或许是首先出现的 |
| 46 | as a potential stumbling block. | 作为一个潜在的绊脚石。 |
| 47 | And I think it is worth saying from the outset | 我觉得应该从头说起 |
| 48 | that this is going to be a long and contentious process, | 这将是一个漫长和有争议的进程, |
| 49 | and we are likely to have many, many days | 我们很可能要过很多很多天 |
| 50 | in which the two sides say very different things | 双方言辞迥异 |
| 51 | about the same subject. | 关于同一主题。 |
| 52 | So what Donald Trump said on the question | 唐纳德·特朗普在这个问题上说的话 |
| 53 | of international inspectors, and again, I'm quoting here, | 我在此再次引用 |
| 54 | and this was from Tuesday, | 这是从星期二, |
| 55 | Iran has fully and completely agreed | 伊朗已经完全同意 |
| 56 | to highest level nuclear inspections long into the future, | * 今后长期进行最高级别的核视察, |
| 57 | brackets infinity, double exclamation mark, | 括号无限,双感叹标记, |
| 58 | this will ensure nuclear honesty. | 这将确保核诚实。 |
| 59 | Now, the Iranians, for their part, | 现在,伊朗人方面, |
| 60 | said that there was no such agreement, | 说没有这样的协议, |
| 61 | that they had not even been in touch with the IAEA, | 他们甚至没有与原子能机构联系, |
| 62 | the International Energy, Atomic Energy Agency, | 国际原子能机构, |
| 63 | and that what were described as sort of boasts | 被描述为夸张的, |
| 64 | about what was going on in the negotiations | 关于谈判的经过 |
| 65 | weren't going to help the process at all. | 根本帮不上忙 |
| 66 | The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, | 原子能机构负责人拉斐尔·格罗西 |
| 67 | has said that enrichment sites will be visited, | 表示将访问浓缩点, |
| 68 | but that, and they haven't been visited, by the way, | 顺便说一句,他们还没有被拜访 |
| 69 | since the middle of last year. | 从去年中叶开始 |
| 70 | And what he said is, we will have to inspect | 他说,我们必须检查 |
| 71 | whether this happens the day after tomorrow | 无论这发生在后天 |
| 72 | or in a week or in 10 days. | 或一周或十天之内 |
| 73 | It's important, but not essential. | 这很重要,但不是必需的。 |
| 74 | This is going to happen. | 这会发生的。 |
| 75 | Inspections are absolutely vital for this process. | 检查对这一进程绝对至关重要。 |
| 76 | No one is going to trust Iran to do things | 没有人会相信伊朗做任何事情 |
| 77 | without international eyes on every part of the process. | 没有国际关注 过程的每一部分。 |
| 78 | So it is absolutely vital that this will take place. | 因此,这样做绝对至关重要。 |
| 79 | We don't yet have the arrangements for that in place. | 我们还没安排好 |
| 80 | And of course, we have to remember | 当然,我们必须记住 |
| 81 | that Iran has allowed these inspections to take place | 伊朗允许进行这些视察 |
| 82 | before, under past agreements, right? | 之前,根据过去的协议,对不对? |
| 83 | Indeed. | 没错 |
| 84 | That was the case under the deal that was reached in 2015, | 2015年达成的交易就是如此, |
| 85 | the JCPOA, or the Iran Nuclear Agreement, | 或伊朗核协定, |
| 86 | as it was known for short. | 因为它被称作短。 |
| 87 | This was negotiated under the Obama administration, | 这是在奥巴马政府的领导下谈判的, |
| 88 | but also with the input of the other permanent members | 但也得到其他常任理事国的投入 |
| 89 | of the UN Security Council, Russia, China, Britain, | 俄罗斯、中国、英国 |
| 90 | and France, along with Germany and the EU. | 法国、德国和欧盟。 |
| 91 | So it was a really international effort | 所以,这是一个真正的国际努力 |
| 92 | with negotiations that went on for a couple of years | 谈判持续了几年 |
| 93 | and resulted in a very long and very detailed agreement. | 结果达成了一项非常长期和非常详细的协议。 |
| 94 | And part of that was that the IAEA should be involved | 其中一部分是,原子能机构应当参与 |
| 95 | in the inspection of the process. | 在检查过程中。 |
| 96 | And until Donald Trump withdrew from that agreement | 直到唐纳德·特朗普退出协议 |
| 97 | in 2018, essentially, that was what was happening. | 在2018年, 基本上,这就是正在发生的情况。 |
| 98 | The International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors | 国际原子能机构视察员 |
| 99 | were in there, able to monitor the process. | 在那里, 能够监测这个过程。 |
| 100 | And on and off, and with reducing effectiveness, | 接连不断,随着效率的降低, |
| 101 | it has to be said, after he withdrew, | 不得不说,在他退出之后, |
| 102 | they remained there until last year. | 他们一直呆在那里直到去年。 |
| 103 | President Trump famously withdrew from that earlier deal | 川普总统名声远扬地退出了之前的交易 |
| 104 | that was reached in 2015 by the Obama administration, | 在2015年奥巴马政府达成, |
| 105 | saying that he could strike a much better one. | 说他可以打一个更好的。 |
| 106 | How likely does that look right now? | 现在看起来有多可能? |
| 107 | Look, I think people are right to be skeptical. | 你看,我认为人们是正确的 怀疑。 |
| 108 | Donald Trump is not known for his attention to detail. | 唐纳德·特朗普对细节的关注并不为人所知. |
| 109 | He does not have a team of experts, | 他没有一个专家小组, |
| 110 | well-versed in this very complicated set of issues | 熟悉这一系列非常复杂的问题 |
| 111 | to do with Iran's nuclear program. | 与伊朗的核计划有关 |
| 112 | And he may find that his attention | 他可能会发现他的注意力 |
| 113 | moves on to other matters. | 继续处理其他事项。 |
| 114 | Having said that, he is utterly determined | 说了这番话,他就下定决心了 |
| 115 | to be able to turn around to the American public | 能够转身对美国公众 |
| 116 | and the world at the end of this process | 在这一进程结束时 |
| 117 | and say to them, I've done a deal | 告诉他们,我已经做了一个交易 |
| 118 | that is better than the deal that I walked away from | 这比我放弃的交易要好 |
| 119 | in 2018, better than anything achieved by Barack Obama. | 在2018年,比巴拉克·奥巴马实现的任何东西都要好. |
| 120 | He is, I think it's fair to say, | 他是,我觉得应该说, |
| 121 | obsessed with the idea of having a better legacy | 沉迷于拥有更好的遗产的想法 |
| 122 | than Barack Obama. | 比巴拉克·奥巴马强 |
| 123 | And so he certainly has a personal motivation for this. | 所以他肯定有个人的动机 |
| 124 | And I think there is one other thing | 我想还有一件事 |
| 125 | that is also worth bearing in mind, | 这也是值得铭记的, |
| 126 | which is that this is not a process | 也就是说这不是一个过程 |
| 127 | being embarked upon from scratch. | 从头开始 |
| 128 | If you think back to the 12-day war last year, | 如果你回想去年的12天战争 |
| 129 | which again, Israel and the United States attacked Iran, | 以色列和美国再次攻击伊朗, |
| 130 | there was an enormous damage done | 造成了巨大的破坏 |
| 131 | to Iran's nuclear infrastructure at the time. | 伊朗当时的核基础设施。 |
| 132 | That is why the 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium | 这就是为什么440公斤高浓缩铀 |
| 133 | are thought to be buried under the rubble somewhere. | 被认为是埋在瓦砾之下 |
| 134 | That is why there has been no enrichment of any kind, | 这就是为什么没有任何种类的丰富, |
| 135 | no centrifuges spinning, no meaningful work | 没有旋转离心机,没有有意义的工作 |
| 136 | on Iran's nuclear program since those strikes. | 伊朗的核计划,因为那些打击。 |
| 137 | So this is not a process designed to halt | 所以这不是一个旨在停止的过程 |
| 138 | a well-functioning nuclear program, | 运行良好的核计划, |
| 139 | such as we saw in 2015. | 如我们在2015年所见。 |
| 140 | This is an effort designed to capitalize | 这是一项旨在利用 |
| 141 | on damage already done to Iran's nuclear program. | 已经对伊朗的核计划造成了破坏 |
| 142 | And I think partly for that reason, | 我认为部分原因 |
| 143 | and Donald Trump's ambitions, | 唐纳德·特朗普的野心 |
| 144 | we should at least give this process a chance. | 我们至少应该给这一进程一个机会。 |
| 145 | What do you think Iran would be happy with | 你觉得伊朗会很高兴吗? |
| 146 | at the end of the day? | 在最后一天吗? |
| 147 | What does it want out of that part of the deal? | 它想从那部分交易中得到什么? |
| 148 | Well, Iran has always insisted, | 嗯,伊朗一直坚持, |
| 149 | one, that it is not trying to acquire a nuclear weapon. | 第一,它不是试图获得核武器。 |
| 150 | And at various times, that has seemed plausible. | 在不同的时间, 这似乎是合理的。 |
| 151 | At other times, it has seemed questionable, | 在其他时候,似乎有问题 |
| 152 | particularly as it has raced to enrich uranium | 特别是它为了浓缩铀 |
| 153 | to much higher levels than required | 达到比所需高得多的水平 |
| 154 | for a civilian program since 2018. | 2018年起的民用计划。 |
| 155 | But it also says that it reserves the right, | 但它也说它保留了权利, |
| 156 | that it has the right to enrich uranium | 有权浓缩铀 |
| 157 | as a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. | 作为《不扩散核武器条约》的签署国。 |
| 158 | And so it is highly unlikely to give up that right | 所以放弃这一权利的可能性很大 |
| 159 | as part of this deal. | 作为交易的一部分。 |
| 160 | Now, part of the JCPOA, the 2015 deal, | 现在,JCPOA的一部分,2015年的交易, |
| 161 | put restrictions on Iran's abilities to enrich uranium, | 限制伊朗浓缩铀的能力, |
| 162 | restrictions on its entire program, | 限制整个计划, |
| 163 | but ones that expired after 15 years, | 但那些15年后就过期的 |
| 164 | basically after 2030. | 基本上在2030年后。 |
| 165 | And that was the basis for a great deal of criticism | 这是大量批评的基础 |
| 166 | by Donald Trump and other critics of the JCPOA. | 由唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)和JCPOA的其他批评者共同创作. |
| 167 | They said, look, this is merely putting off the problem. | 他们说,你看,这只是推迟问题。 |
| 168 | So any deal struck by this negotiating process | 因此,任何交易 通过这个谈判进程 |
| 169 | will have to address that issue. | 将必须解决这个问题。 |
| 170 | To what extent and when will Iran be allowed | 在何种程度上和何时允许伊朗 |
| 171 | to pursue any kind of nuclear program? | 进行任何种类的核计划? |
| 172 | If you listen to Donald Trump at various times, | 如果你在不同时间听唐纳德·特朗普的话 |
| 173 | he's indicated that Iran should never have that right. | 他表示伊朗永远不应该有这种权利。 |
| 174 | At other times, you have a recognition | 在其他时候,你有一个识别 |
| 175 | that Iran probably will have to have some kind of ability | 伊朗可能必须具备某种能力 |
| 176 | to pursue a program. | 执行一个程序。 |
| 177 | So the question will end up being, | 所以问题最后会是 |
| 178 | how long will the restrictions on Iran's program | 对伊朗计划的限制将持续多久? |
| 179 | be in place? | 就位了吗? |
| 180 | And again, that comes back to the whole question | 再说一遍,这又回到整个问题 |
| 181 | of Donald Trump wanting to be able to turn around | 唐纳德·特朗普想转身 |
| 182 | to his supporters and his critics and say, | 他对他的支持者和批评者说: |
| 183 | look, the deal I've struck | 你看,我已经达成交易 |
| 184 | is better than the one that Barack Obama struck. | 比巴拉克·奥巴马袭击的要好 |
| 185 | It's interesting, Paul, | 这很有趣,保罗, |
| 186 | because you're our diplomatic correspondent. | 因为你是我们的外交记者 |
| 187 | You've watched these kinds of negotiations | 你看过这些谈判 |
| 188 | go on over the years. | 这些年过去了 |
| 189 | A lot of people say that the Iranians | 很多人说,伊朗人 |
| 190 | are some of the world's toughest negotiators. | 是世界上最艰难的谈判者之一 |
| 191 | So even if Donald Trump wants to get a deal over the line, | 所以即使唐纳德·特朗普想得到一个交易 超越线, |
| 192 | it's going to take a long period of time. | 需要很长时间 |
| 193 | Would you agree with that, | 你同意吗? |
| 194 | that they are some of the toughest negotiators | 他们是一些最艰难的谈判者 |
| 195 | he could be facing right now? | 他现在可能会面对吗? |
| 196 | I think it's generally acknowledged | 我认为这是普遍承认的 |
| 197 | that they are exactly that, | 他们就是那样的, |
| 198 | because they've had a great deal of practice. | 因为他们有很多练习 |
| 199 | They've been an isolated country | 他们是一个孤立的国家 |
| 200 | pursuing their own security and their regional strategy | 谋求自身的安全和区域战略 |
| 201 | in the teeth of formidable international opposition | 在强大的国际反对的牙齿中 |
| 202 | for a very long time, | 很久以来 |
| 203 | and all the while trying to preserve the Islamic Republic. | 并努力保护伊斯兰共和国。 |
| 204 | And so, yes, they are battle-hardened | 所以,是的,他们是战斗坚固的 |
| 205 | both militarily and diplomatically. | 无论是军事还是外交 |
| 206 | And I think some people will argue | 我想有些人会争吵 |
| 207 | that what Donald Trump describes as regime change | 唐纳德·特朗普所说的政权更迭 |
| 208 | is perhaps a regime toughening, | 可能是一个更强硬的政权, |
| 209 | that the new breed, the new guard in power in Tehran, | 新的品种,新的卫士 在德黑兰, |
| 210 | they're not the revolutionary guard. | 他们不是革命卫队 |
| 211 | They're people who grew up in the Islamic Revolution. | 他们是在伊斯兰革命中长大的人. |
| 212 | They're less interested in the revolutionary rhetoric, | 他们对革命言论不太感兴趣, |
| 213 | perhaps less interested in some of the strict religious | 也许对一些严格的宗教 不太感兴趣 |
| 214 | aspects of the revolution, | 革命的各个方面, |
| 215 | and more interested in statecraft, | 更关心国家行为, |
| 216 | in preserving the regime, | 维护这一制度, |
| 217 | and in also preserving and enhancing Iran's reputation | 维护和加强伊朗的声誉 |
| 218 | and power as a regional player. | 作为区域角色 |
| 219 | At the moment, we're in a 60-day process. | 目前,我们正处于60天的进程中. |
| 220 | That's ticked down a few days now. | 几天前就写下来了 |
| 221 | It is open-ended. | 这是不限成员名额的。 |
| 222 | The memorandum of understanding says | 谅解备忘录说 |
| 223 | that if both sides agree to continue, they will. | 如果双方同意继续,他们就会这样做。 |
| 224 | I think most people think that it is likely | 我认为大多数人认为,这可能是 |
| 225 | to go on much longer than that. | 更久一点 |
| 226 | The question is, can each side maintain, | 问题是,各方能否保持 |
| 227 | to their own satisfaction, a sense of momentum, | 他们自己满意, 一种动力感, |
| 228 | of achievement, or at some point, | 成就,或在某一时刻, |
| 229 | does the whole thing break down? | 整件事会破裂吗? |
| 230 | Then there are multiple reasons why it could do that, | 那么,有多种原因 它可以做到这一点, |
| 231 | whether it's the ongoing conflict | 是否是正在发生的冲突 |
| 232 | between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, | 以色列和黎巴嫩真主党之间, |
| 233 | or a fundamental breakdown over the terms | 或按条件基本细分 |
| 234 | of what a nuclear deal should look like. | 核协议应该是什么样子。 |
| 235 | All of these things could wreck it. | 所有这些东西都可能毁了它。 |
| 236 | The BBC's diplomatic correspondent, Paul Adams. | 英国广播公司外交记者保罗·亚当斯. |
| 237 | And if you'd like to hear more from the Global News, | 如果你想听更多 从全球新闻, |
| 238 | the podcast, click the links below. | 播客,点击下面的链接。 |
| 239 | Thanks for watching. | 谢谢你的观看。 |
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