6-19 美伊全面停战协议的内容、得失平衡及地缘政治影响 |
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to the Global News Podcast. | 欢迎收看全球新闻节目 |
| 0:02 | I'm Valerie Sanderson. | 我是瓦莱丽·桑德森 |
| 0:03 | And I'm joined from Washington | 我是从华盛顿来的 |
| 0:05 | by our reporter there, Bernd de Busman. | 我们的记者,贝恩德・德・布斯曼。 |
| 0:08 | Bernd, an agreement has been signed between Iran and the U.S. to end their war. | 伯恩德 伊朗和美国签署协议结束战争. |
| 0:13 | Remind | 提醒 |
| 0:14 | us what the main points of this agreement are. | 协议的要点是什么? |
| 0:17 | Well, there are 14 separate points in the agreement. | 协议中有14个不同点 |
| 0:19 | I think the main things are that, | 我认为主要的事情是, |
| 0:22 | A, there's a 60-day pause on any sort of fighting or military action. | A,任何类型的战斗或军事行动都有60天的停顿. |
展开字幕全文（194 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to the Global News Podcast. | 欢迎收看全球新闻节目 |
| 2 | I'm Valerie Sanderson. | 我是瓦莱丽·桑德森 |
| 3 | And I'm joined from Washington | 我是从华盛顿来的 |
| 4 | by our reporter there, Bernd de Busman. | 我们的记者,贝恩德・德・布斯曼。 |
| 5 | Bernd, an agreement has been signed between Iran and the U.S. to end their war. | 伯恩德 伊朗和美国签署协议结束战争. |
| 6 | Remind | 提醒 |
| 7 | us what the main points of this agreement are. | 协议的要点是什么? |
| 8 | Well, there are 14 separate points in the agreement. | 协议中有14个不同点 |
| 9 | I think the main things are that, | 我认为主要的事情是, |
| 10 | A, there's a 60-day pause on any sort of fighting or military action. | A,任何类型的战斗或军事行动都有60天的停顿. |
| 11 | That's made very clear | 说得很清楚 |
| 12 | in one of the initial points. | 在一个起始点。 |
| 13 | There's also the promise of further discussions on Iran's | 也有希望进一步讨论伊朗的 |
| 14 | nuclear program. | 核计划。 |
| 15 | There's very few specifics in the actual document that's been signed. | 实际的文档中签过字的细节很少. |
| 16 | But essentially, the two sides will get together as soon as or late this week to discuss what | 但基本上,双方本周一到晚会聚在一起讨论 |
| 17 | that actually looks like. | 这其实看起来像。 |
| 18 | There is a minimum standard for what happens with Iran's highly enriched uranium, which | 关于伊朗的高浓缩铀,有一个最低标准。 |
| 19 | is President Trump's overarching goal in this, that it be diluted in place. | 这是川普总统的首要目标 被淡化 |
| 20 | But that's a | 但这是 |
| 21 | very technical discussion that will have to be ironed out over a much longer time frame. | 技术方面的讨论 必须在更长的时间内解决 |
| 22 | And the Obama administration, for example, took 20 months to discuss the accelerated | 例如,奥巴马政府花了20个月讨论加速 |
| 23 | – Iran's nuclear program, rather. | - 伊朗的核计划,相反。 |
| 24 | So it's a very accelerated timeline to discuss that. | 因此,这是一个非常加速的时间 讨论这一点。 |
| 25 | Of course, the Strait of Hormuz will now be opened and the blockade of Iranian ports will | 当然,霍尔木兹海峡现在将开放,对伊朗港口的封锁也将开放。 |
| 26 | now be lifted. | 现在解除。 |
| 27 | But it is a performance-based agreement. | 但这是一项基于业绩的协议。 |
| 28 | So if Iran complies with its part | 因此,如果伊朗遵守它的部分 |
| 29 | of the agreement, it begins reaping more benefits of the blockade being lifted, for example. | 例如,它开始从解除的封锁中获得更多的好处。 |
| 30 | And I think one of the most crucial things – and this is something that's been very | 我认为最关键的事情之一-- 这是一直以来 |
| 31 | important to the Iranian side – is there's mention of a $300 billion reconstruction fund. | 对伊朗方面来说, |
| 32 | Now it's – we still don't know what exactly that fund looks like. | 现在我们仍然不知道基金是什么样子。 |
| 33 | The U.S. and President | 美国和总统 |
| 34 | Trump have been very clear that that money won't come directly from the U.S., but it | 特朗普已经非常清楚,那笔钱不会直接来自美国,但是它 |
| 35 | does open the possibility that Gulf countries – the UAE, for example, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait | 海湾国家,例如阿联酋,沙特阿拉伯、科威特 |
| 36 | – could contribute to some sort of reconstruction for the damage that Iran suffered during Operation | - 有助于伊朗在行动期间遭受的损失的某种重建 |
| 37 | Epic Fury. | 爱比芙瑞. |
| 38 | I think those are the three main bullet points of that 14-point agreement. | 我认为,这是14点协议的三个主要要点。 |
| 39 | And of course, what everyone wants to know, Bernd, is, you know, who got the better end | 当然,每个人都想知道,伯恩德, 谁得到了更好的结局 |
| 40 | of the deal? | 交易吗? |
| 41 | Well, both sides, I think, are already claiming victory. | 我想双方都已经宣称胜利了 |
| 42 | Now, President Trump has said his | 现在,川普总统说他 |
| 43 | main goal with this whole campaign and the subsequent negotiations has been that Iran | 这场运动和随后的谈判的主要目标是伊朗 |
| 44 | will not have a nuclear weapon. | 将不拥有核武器。 |
| 45 | Now, that's written in the deal. | 现在,这是写在交易中。 |
| 46 | Of course, as I mentioned, | 当然,正如我所提到的, |
| 47 | that's a very technical discussion, that we don't actually have the details of what | 这是一个非常技术性的讨论, 我们实际上没有 细节什么 |
| 48 | that looks like. | 这看起来像。 |
| 49 | And President Trump also is claiming victory because the Strait of Hormuz is now open. | 而川普总统也声称胜利,因为霍尔木兹海峡现已开放. |
| 50 | Now, that's a much more controversial point here domestically in the U.S., because the | 现在,这是在美国国内更有争议的问题,因为 |
| 51 | Strait of Hormuz was open before Donald Trump and Israel began striking Iran on February | 霍尔木兹海峡在唐纳德·特朗普和以色列于2月开始袭击伊朗之前是开放的 |
| 52 | 28th. | 28号 |
| 53 | On the Iranian side, A, it keeps their government intact. | 在伊朗方面,A,它保持他们的政府完整. |
| 54 | There is a pledge to not – that | 承诺不会... |
| 55 | the U.S. won't involve itself in Iranian domestic matters, which, you know, of course, | 美国不会介入伊朗国内事务, 当然,你知道, |
| 56 | that will be greatly disappointing to Iranian dissidents or those people that believe that | 伊朗持不同政见者或认为 |
| 57 | President Trump would come help them protest against the regime, for example. | 例如,特朗普总统会来帮助他们抗议政权。 |
| 58 | And there's no mention of Iran's ballistic missile program, for example. | 也没有提及伊朗的弹道导弹计划,例如. |
| 59 | So that remains | 所以,这仍然 |
| 60 | a capability that can be intact in the future. | 未来可以完整无缺的能力。 |
| 61 | I think both sides will claim victories on | 我想双方都会取得胜利 |
| 62 | By that same logic, though, on both sides, there's people that think this agreement | 同样的逻辑,虽然, 在双方, 有的人认为这个协议 |
| 63 | wasn't enough. | 还不够 |
| 64 | In the U.S., there's been – it's been quite controversial. | 在美国,一直存在——这已经引起了相当大的争议. |
| 65 | People | 人员 |
| 66 | thought the war shouldn't have started – many people thought the war shouldn't have started | 许多人认为战争不应该开始, |
| 67 | in the first place. | 最初. |
| 68 | Others think this agreement didn't really address the core issues. | 其他人认为这一协议并没有真正解决核心问题. |
| 69 | And | 还有 |
| 70 | in Iran, hardliners are uncomfortable with what they see as too many concessions being | 在伊朗,强硬派对太多的让步感到不舒服 |
| 71 | made to the U.S. | 给美国。 |
| 72 | But as you said, there's been criticism, especially where you are, and from Democrats | 但正如你说的,有人批评,尤其是你在哪里, 和来自民主党 |
| 73 | and, crucially, also from Republicans, President Trump's own party. | 也来自共和党 川普总统自己的政党 |
| 74 | That's true. | 没错 |
| 75 | I mean, Democrats have been largely against this war from the beginning, | 我的意思是,民主党从一开始就基本上反对这场战争, |
| 76 | so I think it's no surprise that they've been very critical. | 所以,我认为这并不奇怪 他们一直非常批评。 |
| 77 | There had already been | 曾经有过 |
| 78 | an agreement on Iran's nuclear program in place since the Obama administration, it's | 奥巴马政府以来就伊朗核计划达成的协议 |
| 79 | 称为JCPOA. | |
| 80 | And the logic from Democrats has been that if President Trump didn't | 民主党人的逻辑是 如果川普总统没有 |
| 81 | see that agreement as fit, he could have adjusted it rather than – essentially, what he did | 他认为协议是合适的, 他本可以调整它,而不是 - 基本上,他做了什么 |
| 82 | in his first term was tear it up and then return to war. | 他的第一个任期是撕裂它 然后回到战争。 |
| 83 | Now, other Republicans think that this – that the agreement doesn't go far enough, that | 现在,其他共和党人认为 协议还不够远 |
| 84 | it does nothing really to guarantee Israel's security, for one, that it does nothing to | 它并没有真正保障以色列的安全,因为其中之一,它没有任何作用。 |
| 85 | stop Iran's support of proxy militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in | 停止伊朗支持黎巴嫩真主党或胡塞人等傀儡民兵 |
| 86 | Yemen, and that essentially now the U.S. is reconstructing what it just spent considerable | 也门,现在基本上,美国正在重建它刚刚花费的大量资金。 |
| 87 | amounts of money and 13 dead American servicemen to deconstruct. | 以及13名美国军人的解构 |
| 88 | So there's quite a lot of consternation and several, including people who are very | 因此,有相当多的惊愕 和几个, 包括那些非常 |
| 89 | close to President Trump, usually Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, for example. | 与特朗普总统关系密切,通常为德克萨斯州参议员泰德·克鲁斯(Ted Cruz)等. |
| 90 | They've | 他们已经 |
| 91 | been very critical, and one Republican senator, outgoing Senator Bill Cassidy, called this | 一位即将卸任的共和党参议员 比尔·卡西迪称 |
| 92 | the greatest foreign policy blunder in generations. | 这是历代以来最大的外交政策失误。 |
| 93 | So I think he'll certainly be coming under | 所以我觉得他肯定下水了 |
| 94 | some criticism from Iran hawks in his own party, and there are people of his own party | 伊朗鹰派在自己的政党中 提出一些批评 也有他自己的政党的人 |
| 95 | who didn't think this war was a very good idea to begin with, given that President | 他不认为这场战争是一个很好的想法 首先,因为总统 |
| 96 | Trump had promised no foreign entanglements when he ran for office. | 特朗普在竞选公职时曾承诺不搞外国纠缠. |
| 97 | Well, you mentioned Israel. | 你提到过以色列 |
| 98 | There's a very strong Israeli lobby in the U.S., isn't | 在美国有一个非常强大的以色列游说团,不是吗? |
| 99 | there? | 那边? |
| 100 | And we understand that Israel wants to remain in Lebanon where it's fighting | 我们知道以色列想留在黎巴嫩 在那里战斗 |
| 101 | against Hezbollah, even though this agreement should encompass Israel as well. | 尽管这项协议也应包括以色列。 |
| 102 | And the war should stop on all sides. | 战争应该停止 在各方面。 |
| 103 | And President Trump, over time, has become increasingly aware that Lebanon, perhaps more | 而川普总统随着时间的推移,越来越意识到黎巴嫩,也许更多 |
| 104 | than any other issue, is what threatens to upend this deal. | 与任何其他问题相比, 威胁着更新这个交易。 |
| 105 | Over the last few weeks, | 过去几周, |
| 106 | we've seen him be increasingly publicly vocal about his displeasure with Israeli Prime | 我们见过他越来越公开地 说他对以色列总理的不满 |
| 107 | Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over continued strikes in Lebanon. | 本雅明·内塔尼亚胡部长关于黎巴嫩持续罢工一事。 |
| 108 | And really, that's been kind of the strongest language we've heard from this president, | 真的,那是我们从总统那里听到的最强烈的语言, |
| 109 | who has otherwise really been a steadfast ally of Israel's. | 不然,他确是以色列的坚定盟友。 |
| 110 | He believes that while | 他相信,虽然 |
| 111 | Israel has a right to defend itself, he's called into question the methods in which | 以色列有权自卫,他质疑 |
| 112 | it claims to defend itself, the striking of residential buildings in Lebanon, for example. | 例如,它声称保卫自己,攻击黎巴嫩的住宅建筑。 |
| 113 | So I think he'll be leaning on Prime Minister Netanyahu quite hard. | 所以我想他会非常倚重内塔尼亚胡总理 |
| 114 | Of course, that puts | 当然了 |
| 115 | the prime minister in a very awkward position at home. | 首相在家中非常尴尬 |
| 116 | He's facing an electoral battle. | 他面临一场选举战. |
| 117 | There are people in Israel who think that this deal isn't something that Israel should | 以色列有些人认为这个交易不是以色列应该做的 |
| 118 | abide by. | 遵从。 |
| 119 | And at the same time, Netanyahu has kind of framed himself as being a security-focused | 同时,内塔尼亚胡也把自己刻画成一个注重安全的人 |
| 120 | prime minister. | 总理 |
| 121 | So any damage in the relationship with the U.S., Israel's main security | 因此,任何破坏 与美国的关系,以色列的主要安全 |
| 122 | benefactor, it's the greatest recipient of U.S. military aid anywhere in the world, also | 施恩者,也是世界上 军事援助的最大接受者 |
| 123 | complicates that for him. | 这让他更复杂了 |
| 124 | So I think we'll be hearing quite a lot about that from people | 所以,我想我们会听到很多 关于这一点的人 |
| 125 | who feel strongly about Israel here in Washington, particularly on Capitol Hill, many of | 他们强烈地感受到以色列在这里的华盛顿, 特别是在国会山, |
| 126 | whom have already started calling into question why, in their belief, Israel isn't more | 他们已经开始怀疑 为什么他们认为以色列不是更多 |
| 127 | protected by the conclusion of this deal. | 受这项交易的保障。 |
| 128 | And what about this $300 billion aid package that's going to go to Iran? | 而这3000亿美元的一揽子援助计划 将会流向伊朗呢? |
| 129 | I mean, what's the view of that in the U.S.? | 我的意思是,美国有什么观点? |
| 130 | Well, that's a particularly interesting one, because President Trump's main gripe with | 这特别有意思 因为川普总统对 |
| 131 | the JCPOA under President Obama was that funds were given to Iran for compliance. | 奥巴马总统领导下的联合方案业务协调会认为,向伊朗提供了遵守规定的资金。 |
| 132 | Now, to make those things be kind of more in contrast, President Trump, Vice President | 特朗普总统,副总统 |
| 133 | Vance and other U.S. officials have said that none of that money will actually be coming | Vance和其他美国官员都说 这些钱都不会来 |
| 134 | from the U.S. That could come from Gulf allies. | 从美国。 这可能来自海湾盟友。 |
| 135 | The UAE, for example, was given an example by White House officials yesterday. | 例如,阿联酋昨天被白宫官员举出了一个例子。 |
| 136 | If they chose to invest money in Iran's reconstruction, the U.S. wouldn't stand in the | 如果他们选择投资伊朗的重建 美国不会站在 |
| 137 | way. | 就是这样 |
| 138 | And other bits of that money are already Iranian money that's been frozen in foreign | 其他钱已经用外国货币冻结了 |
| 139 | banks. | 银行 |
| 140 | And that'll now be released to Iran if they comply with their part of the agreement. | 如果伊朗遵守协议,那现在将被释放到伊朗。 |
| 141 | At the same time, I think Iran hawks in particular are very nervous about Iran being | 与此同时,我认为伊朗鹰派尤其对伊朗是十分紧张的。 |
| 142 | given an economic lifeline at a time when it was quite struggling because of the blockade | 给经济生命线 在当时,它相当挣扎 因为封锁 |
| 143 | on its ports and being cut off from the world financial system. | 与世界金融系统隔绝 |
| 144 | Now, money hundreds and billions, hundreds of millions of dollars will start being | 现在,金钱上亿亿, 数亿美元将开始 |
| 145 | released to Iran over the next 60 days as these negotiations continue, which helps | 今后60天,随着这些谈判的继续,向伊朗释放,这有助于 |
| 146 | the Iranian government find its feet again after what was essentially a very difficult | 伊朗政府再次发现自己的脚 之后基本上是一个非常困难的 |
| 147 | period. | 期间。 |
| 148 | But the Trump administration is very much framing as it's not our money and we're | 但特朗普政府非常陷害 因为它不是我们的钱 而我们是 |
| 149 | not giving it to them, to the American people. | 不是给他们的 而是给美国人民 |
| 150 | And what's your sense, Bernd, of how this is all going down with Americans themselves, | 伯恩德,你有什么感想 美国人自己会怎样 |
| 151 | with the average American voter? | 和普通美国选民? |
| 152 | Are they happy just to see an end of this war? | 他们高兴看到战争结束吗? |
| 153 | Well, I think in part, yes, this war was never particularly popular to begin with. | 嗯,我部分地认为,是的, 这场战争从来没有 特别流行开始。 |
| 154 | And in that, it's been very different than previous U.S. | 而在这点上,它一直与以前的美国有很大的不同. |
| 155 | wars that began with widespread popularity, the war in Iraq, for example, and became less | 战争从广受欢迎开始,例如伊拉克战争, 并逐渐减少。 |
| 156 | popular over time. | 随时间推移而流行. |
| 157 | Polls showed that this one was never very popular to begin with. | 民意调查显示,这个从来就不太受欢迎。 |
| 158 | And it became less popular as Americans went to the petrol pump and found themselves | 随着美国人去加油泵 发现自己 |
| 159 | paying more money. | 付更多的钱。 |
| 160 | I think when those prices start to come down and we've already seen | 我想当价格开始下跌 我们已经看到 |
| 161 | them start to come down, Americans will feel very much relieved that this conflict is | 他们开始下来,美国人会感到非常放心 这场冲突是 |
| 162 | over. | 结束了。 |
| 163 | Of course, that doesn't address the core question that many of them had, is why | 当然,这并不能解决他们中许多人的核心问题,这就是为什么 |
| 164 | this conflict began in the first place and really what has the U.S. | 这场冲突开始于美国。 |
| 165 | gained? | 获得? |
| 166 | I think Democrats in particular will point to those falling petrol prices and | 我认为民主党人将特别指出油价下跌和 |
| 167 | say that they were elevated because this conflict began. | 说他们被提升 因为这场冲突开始。 |
| 168 | So many Americans, I think, will be very relieved that this conflict is over. | 如此之多的美国人,我认为, 将会非常放心, 这场冲突已经结束。 |
| 169 | But there's still quite a lot of misunderstanding or a lack of understanding about | 但还是有很多误解或缺乏了解 |
| 170 | why this war began and what exactly the U.S. | 这场战争为什么开始 究竟是什么美国 |
| 171 | achieved over the course of this conflict. | 冲突期间取得的成果。 |
| 172 | And how precarious do you think this is? | 你觉得这有多危险? |
| 173 | Because we're now entering a 60 day ahead of us, aren't we? | 因为我们现在进入60天前,不是吗? |
| 174 | Where all this has got to be finalized if it's to stay in place? | 如果要留在原地,所有这一切都要完成吗? |
| 175 | Well, I think at the moment, at least all sides indicate that neither side really has | 我认为目前 至少各方都表示 双方都没有 |
| 176 | the appetite to return to full scale military conflict. | 渴望恢复全面的军事冲突。 |
| 177 | Even in recent weeks, when we saw the U.S. | 即使在最近几周, 当我们看到美国。 |
| 178 | and Iran trade fire at several points, it was quite clear that the U.S. | 伊朗和伊朗在几个点上交火,很明显,美国。 |
| 179 | nor the Iranians wanted to return to conflict. | 伊朗人也不愿重返冲突。 |
| 180 | At the same time, things are quite precarious. | 与此同时,情况相当不稳定。 |
| 181 | Secretary of Defense Pete Heksef has said that if Iran doesn't comply with the various | 国防部长Pete Heksef说,如果伊朗不服从各方要求, |
| 182 | points set out in the memorandum, the U.S. | 备忘录中的要点,美国。 |
| 183 | is fully prepared to reinstall the blockade on Iranian ports. | 完全准备恢复对伊朗港口的封锁。 |
| 184 | And if that happens, one can imagine a situation in which tensions skyrocket again across | 如果发生这种情况,人们可以想象到一种局势,即紧张局势再次蔓延到整个世界。 |
| 185 | the Gulf or that Iran might therefore take action to cut off the Strait of Hormuz again. | 或伊朗可能因此采取行动再次切断霍尔木兹海峡。 |
| 186 | There's also the question of Lebanon. | 还有黎巴嫩的问题。 |
| 187 | Even after the memorandum of understanding was signed, we saw Israeli strikes in Lebanon. | 即使在签署谅解备忘录之后,我们看到以色列在黎巴嫩发动了攻击。 |
| 188 | And I think one of the ultimate tests of this agreement will see how much Israel continues | 我认为这项协议的最终检验之一 将会看到以色列继续继续 |
| 189 | those operations despite U.S. pressure and how much patience Iran has for those Israeli | 尽管美国施加了压力,尽管伊朗对以色列人有多么耐心。 |
| 190 | strikes in Lebanon, which they've made very clear they see as subject to part of the | 黎巴嫩的罢工,他们已经非常明确 他们认为是 受部分 |
| 191 | steel, even if the Israelis don't think so. | 钢铁,即使以色列人不这么认为。 |
| 192 | Thanks, Bert. | 谢谢 贝特 |
| 193 | Bert de Busman在华盛顿 我们的白宫记者 | |
| 194 | If you want more on this story, just listen to the global news. | 如果你想更多关于这个故事,只是听全球新闻。 |
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