【英语访谈】马斯克接受《经济学人》深度专访
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on The Insider. | 埃隆·穆斯克 非常感谢你加入我的"内线" |
| 0:03 | Thank you for having us here at Tesla Giga. | 谢谢你让我们来特斯拉吉加 |
| 0:07 | It is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives. | 不使用超脂药很难介绍你 |
| 0:10 | I mean, you are doing, I think, more | 我的意思是,你做的,我认为,更多 |
| 0:12 | to build the future than literally anybody | 建设未来 比真正的任何人 |
| 0:14 | alive right now. | 现在还活着。 |
| 0:15 | I'm doing a lot of building in general. | 我做了很多的建筑 总体上。 |
| 0:17 | You're doing a lot of building. | 你在做很多建筑。 |
| 0:18 | I'm sort of an instinctive builder, I suppose. | 我算是个本能的建筑师吧 |
| 0:19 | I just like building things. | 我只是喜欢建东西。 |
展开字幕全文（1844 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on The Insider. | 埃隆·穆斯克 非常感谢你加入我的"内线" |
| 2 | Thank you for having us here at Tesla Giga. | 谢谢你让我们来特斯拉吉加 |
| 3 | It is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives. | 不使用超脂药很难介绍你 |
| 4 | I mean, you are doing, I think, more | 我的意思是,你做的,我认为,更多 |
| 5 | to build the future than literally anybody | 建设未来 比真正的任何人 |
| 6 | alive right now. | 现在还活着。 |
| 7 | I'm doing a lot of building in general. | 我做了很多的建筑 总体上。 |
| 8 | You're doing a lot of building. | 你在做很多建筑。 |
| 9 | I'm sort of an instinctive builder, I suppose. | 我算是个本能的建筑师吧 |
| 10 | I just like building things. | 我只是喜欢建东西。 |
| 11 | You are, but you're building, I mean, you know, | 你是,但你正在建造,我的意思是,你知道, |
| 12 | run around building things all day long. | 整天到处跑来跑去 |
| 13 | You run around building a lot of things. | 你跑来跑去造很多东西 |
| 14 | You pioneered electric vehicles. | 你是电动车辆的先驱 |
| 15 | You've revolutionized space travel. | 你让太空旅行发生了革命性的变化 |
| 16 | You've got a cutting-edge AI model now, humanoid robots. | 你现在有一个先进的AI模型,人造机器人。 |
| 17 | Can we start this conversation by putting all of this together? | 我们可以开始这个对话 把这些都放在一起吗? |
| 18 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 19 | Tell me what the world's going to be like in, let's say, | 告诉我世界会变成什么样子 |
| 20 | 10 years, if you succeed. | 十年,如果你成功的话。 |
| 21 | 10 years, so we're talking 2036. | 十年,所以说2036年. |
| 22 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 23 | Hopefully, we'll both be around. | 希望我们俩都能在一起 |
| 24 | Hopefully, yes. | 希望是这样 |
| 25 | We can, we can. | 我们可以,我们可以。 |
| 26 | Probably. | 也许吧 |
| 27 | Most likely, we will be. | 很可能,我们会的。 |
| 28 | It's hard to imagine the future where | 很难想象未来 |
| 29 | there's not an overwhelming amount | 没有压倒性的数量 |
| 30 | of artificial intelligence, meaning, like in 10 years, | 人工智能,意思是,像10年, |
| 31 | I would expect artificial intelligence | 我会期待人工智能 |
| 32 | to be far greater than the sum of human intelligence, | 远大于人类智力的总和, |
| 33 | like far greater. | 更伟大 |
| 34 | In fact, I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence | 事实上,我觉得AI可能超过了人类智力的总和 |
| 35 | in about and around five years. | 大约五年左右 |
| 36 | Five years. | 五年.. |
| 37 | Roughly five years is my guess. | 我猜大概五年了 |
| 38 | So there really won't be anything | 所以真的不会有任何东西 |
| 39 | that AI can't do better than humans, | AI不能做比人类更好的, |
| 40 | apart from being human, perhaps. | 也许除了人类之外 |
| 41 | At a more prosaic level, what will life be like? | 在更亲切的层面上,生活会是什么样子? |
| 42 | The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance, | 最有可能的结果是 一个富饶的时代, |
| 43 | where anyone can have anything they can think of. | 在那里,任何人都可以拥有任何他们能想到的东西。 |
| 44 | This may sound preposterous, but, well, here we are in 2026. | 这听起来可能很荒谬,但是,我们是在2026年。 |
| 45 | Let's see where we stand in 2036. | 我们看看2036年的情况 |
| 46 | Now, of course, there are things that | 现在,当然,有些事情 |
| 47 | could derail this like a massive global thermonuclear war | 可能像一场大规模全球热核战争一样 使这场战争脱轨 |
| 48 | or something like that. | 或者类似的东西。 |
| 49 | But assuming that there's not World War III, | 但假设没有第三次世界大战 |
| 50 | I think we're headed for an age of amazing abundance. | 我想我们正走向一个富足的时代 |
| 51 | So this is, I guess, a message of optimism and excitement | 我想这是乐观和兴奋的信息 |
| 52 | about the future. | 关于未来 |
| 53 | So we'll talk about the abundance in a second. | 所以,我们将谈论 丰度在一秒钟。 |
| 54 | But just a very prosaic matter, how are your companies | 不过你公司怎么样? |
| 55 | going to be making money? | 要赚钱吗? |
| 56 | 因为SpaceX IPO计划书 | |
| 57 | it looked as though the overwhelming amount | 看起来像是压倒性的金额 |
| 58 | of the revenue would be coming from AI, from Grok, really. | 收入来自AI,来自Grok,真的。 |
| 59 | It won't be transporting things to space, | 它不会把东西运到太空 |
| 60 | as SpaceX is now doing. | 正如SpaceX现在所做的那样。 |
| 61 | What will your companies be doing in 10 years? | 10年后你们公司要做什么? |
| 62 | And how will they make money? | 他们怎么赚钱? |
| 63 | Well, you can really think of the economy as digital | 你可以把经济看成数字经济 |
| 64 | and physical intelligence. | 和身体智力。 |
| 65 | So what we have right now advancing very rapidly | 所以,我们现在有 快速推进 |
| 66 | is digital intelligence, obviously, with AI. | 显然,是数字智能,与AI。 |
| 67 | That is, it seems almost with every passing week, | 也就是说 几乎每过一周 |
| 68 | there are more AI breakthroughs. | AI有更多的突破。 |
| 69 | It can do something amazing that it couldn't do before. | 它能做一些它以前无法做的事情 |
| 70 | But it's still somewhat confined to the digital realm. | 但还是有些局限在数字领域. |
| 71 | It doesn't have end effectors. | 它没有终端效应器。 |
| 72 | You need the end effectors in the form of humanoid robotics. | 你需要人造机器人形式的终端效应器 |
| 73 | You need basically lots of bots in a nutshell. | 简言之,你基本上需要很多酒 |
| 74 | You need lots of bots. | 你需要很多东西 |
| 75 | And then you can go from intelligence manifesting itself | 然后,你可以离开 智力表现自己 |
| 76 | only digitally to shaping atoms. | 只有数字化的原子。 |
| 77 | And you say, what is an economy? | 你说,什么是经济? |
| 78 | An economy is the production of goods and provision of services. | 经济是商品生产和提供服务。 |
| 79 | And if you have vast numbers of robots | 如果你拥有大量的机器人 |
| 80 | with vast amounts of digital intelligence, | 拥有大量数字情报 |
| 81 | you have a quasi-infinite economy. | 你有一个准无限的经济。 |
| 82 | So the future is going to be very, very different from the past. | 所以未来将会与过去大不相同。 |
| 83 | There's no analogy or metaphor that I | 没有比喻或比喻,我 |
| 84 | think illustrates the magnitude of change | 思考说明变化的程度 |
| 85 | that we're going to experience here. | 我们要在这里体验 |
| 86 | I understand that. | 这我知道 |
| 87 | And I'm also trying to figure out | 我还在努力想 |
| 88 | what that world will look like. | 这个世界会是什么样子。 |
| 89 | I think it'll be good. | 我觉得会很好 |
| 90 | It's going to be pretty incredible. | 这将是相当不可思议的。 |
| 91 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 92 | Well, we'll also do there are some risks, too. | 我们也会冒一些风险 |
| 93 | There's risks. | 有风险。 |
| 94 | I agree. | и種 |
| 95 | We'll come to those. | 我们会去的 |
| 96 | But just on how, then, you make money. | 但是,只要你如何赚钱。 |
| 97 | Because in the end, people are buying your shares | 因为归根结底,人们正在购买你的股份 |
| 98 | because they expect you to make money. | 因为他们希望你赚钱 |
| 99 | Do you sell robots? | 你卖机器人吗? |
| 100 | I'll make another prediction. | 我会做另一个预测。 |
| 101 | Money won't matter in 2036. | 钱在2036年不重要. |
| 102 | You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. | 你在看我采访伊隆·穆斯克 |
| 103 | If you want to get early access to other interviews, | 如果你想早点接受其他采访 |
| 104 | subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above. | 点击以上链接订阅《经济学家》。 |
| 105 | Now back to the interview. | 现在回到采访。 |
| 106 | I'm not sure that the people who bought your shares | 我不确定买你股份的人 |
| 107 | think that money won't matter in 2036. | 认为钱在2036年不重要. |
| 108 | What do you want money for? | 你要钱干什么? |
| 109 | You want money for goods and services, right? | 你想要钱买东西,对吧? |
| 110 | You want money for food, housing, transport, | 你想要钱买食物 住房 交通 |
| 111 | entertainment. | 娱乐. |
| 112 | Well, if that is so abundant that the robots in AI | 好吧,如果这是如此丰富 以至于机器人在AI |
| 113 | are providing more goods and services than any human | 提供比人类更多的货物和服务 |
| 114 | could possibly consume, what do you | 可能消耗,你怎么办? |
| 115 | need money for in that case? | 要钱吗? |
| 116 | You're creating these robots. | 你正在创造这些机器人。 |
| 117 | I guess between now and then you'll need money, sure. | 我猜从那时到那时你肯定需要钱 |
| 118 | Are you selling these robots? | 你要卖这些机器人? |
| 119 | Are you selling humanoid robots? | 你在卖人造机器人吗? |
| 120 | Or are you producing goods and services with the humanoid | 还是你用人造物生产商品和服务? |
| 121 | robots that you control? | 你控制的机器人吗? |
| 122 | I give you the Levi's Strauss. | 我给你的利维的斯特劳斯。 |
| 123 | I think it would probably be an exercise in vanity | 我想那可能是虚荣的练习 |
| 124 | for me to think that I would be controlling | 对我来说,我会控制 |
| 125 | supergenius AI that is vastly smarter than me. | 超天才的人工智能 比我聪明得多 |
| 126 | I think what we can and should try to do | 我想我们该做些什么 |
| 127 | is to make sure that the AI has good values, | 确保AI有良好的价值, |
| 128 | that it cares about humanity, and that it wants | 它关心人性,它想要 |
| 129 | us to be happy and prosper. | 快乐和繁荣 |
| 130 | I think it probably will be. | 我觉得可能吧 |
| 131 | What my biological neural net tells me | 我的生物神经网络告诉我 |
| 132 | is that the most important thing for AI safety | 这是AI安全最重要的东西 |
| 133 | is to be maximally truth-seeking and curious. | 尽可能寻求真相和好奇 |
| 134 | If that's the case, I think it will foster humanity. | 如果是这样,我想它会促进人类。 |
| 135 | So let's unpack that. | 所以,让我们拆开它。 |
| 136 | You're sure that humans will no longer be | 你确信人类将不再 |
| 137 | in control in 10 years' time? | 10年后控制着吗? |
| 138 | I think it is unlikely, in the same way | 我认为这是不太可能的,同样的方式 |
| 139 | that if the difference in intelligence between AI | 如果大赦国际之间的情报差异 |
| 140 | and humans is vastly greater than the difference | 人类比区别大得多 |
| 141 | in intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, | 在人工智能和黑猩猩之间的情报, |
| 142 | it's hard to imagine that the chimpanzees would be in charge. | 很难想象黑猩猩会负责 |
| 143 | I'm really struck by this. | 我真的很惊讶这个。 |
| 144 | And we are essentially an evolved form of chimpanzee. | 我们基本上是一种进化的黑猩猩形式。 |
| 145 | So it wasn't that long ago that we | 所以不是很久以前,我们 |
| 146 | were swinging through the trees, eating bananas in the jungle. | 正在树上摇摆 吃着丛林里的香蕉 |
| 147 | And we still eat bananas, by the way. | 顺便说一句 我们还在吃香蕉 |
| 148 | We do. | 没错 |
| 149 | And sometimes swing through trees as well. | 有时也会在树上摇摆 |
| 150 | Yes, sometimes swing through trees is kind of fun. | 是的,有时在树上摇摆 是一种乐趣。 |
| 151 | It's sort of reminiscent of the past, for all time's sake, | 它有点像回忆过去, 为了所有的时间, |
| 152 | swinging through the trees once in a while. | 偶尔在树上摇摆 |
| 153 | There should be more swinging through trees. | 应该有更多的秋千在树上。 |
| 154 | I bet it's way more fun than people think. | 我敢打赌,它比人们想象的有趣得多。 |
| 155 | I'm with you on that. | 我同意你的意见。 |
| 156 | I'm definitely with you on swinging through trees. | 我绝对和你在一起 在树上摇摆。 |
| 157 | I love swinging through trees. | 我喜欢在树上摇摆 |
| 158 | But I'm really struck listening to you say this now. | 但我真的很惊讶听你这么说 |
| 159 | Because I've been listening to a bunch of things | 因为我一直在听一堆事情 |
| 160 | that you've said over the years. | 你说的这些年来。 |
| 161 | And 10 years ago, you were on a podcast. | 十年前,你在播客节目里 |
| 162 | I think it was with Neil deGrasse Tyson. | 我想是尼尔·德格拉斯·泰森干的 |
| 163 | And you said that the thing that terrified you most | 你说你最害怕的事 |
| 164 | was rapid recursive self-improvement in AIs. | 在AIs中是快速的递归自我改进. |
| 165 | And you said, and I'm really struck with me, | 你说,我真的很惊讶我, |
| 166 | you said that we will just be the pet labradors | 你说我们只是宠物拉布拉多 |
| 167 | at the best. | 最好不过了 |
| 168 | Well, now you see... | 现在你知道... |
| 169 | The labradors are pretty happy creatures, | 拉布拉多是相当快乐的生物, |
| 170 | that's my experience. | 这是我的经验。 |
| 171 | But in 2023, you asked for a slowdown in AI | 但2023年,你要求AI减速 |
| 172 | because you were worried about it. | 因为你担心它。 |
| 173 | Well, I signed on to, you know, as one of many, | 嗯,我签了,你知道, 作为很多人之一, |
| 174 | like 500 people, I was just, you know, | 就像500个人,我只是,你知道, |
| 175 | one of many signatures on that thing. | 上面有很多签名之一 |
| 176 | But I think even last year, you said, | 但我想即使去年 你说 |
| 177 | I know, where was it, Ted Cruz's podcast, | 我知道,在哪里,泰德・克鲁兹的播客, |
| 178 | you said there was a 10 to 20% chance of killer robots | 你说有百分之十到20%的 杀手机器人的机会 |
| 179 | wiping out humanity. | 消灭人性. |
| 180 | Yes. | 对 |
| 181 | So you sounded worried then. | 所以你听起来很担心 |
| 182 | Now you seem very relaxed about it. | 现在你看起来很放松 |
| 183 | Have you changed your view? | 你改变观点了吗? |
| 184 | I still think there's risk associated with AI and robots. | 我仍然认为与AI和机器人有关的风险。 |
| 185 | It's not zero. | 非为零. |
| 186 | I guess I've come to my sort of philosophical conclusion | 我想我已经得出了我的哲学结论 |
| 187 | is to look on the bright side. | 以光明的一面来看 |
| 188 | Like, I can't say any way to really stop | 像,我不能说 任何方法真正停止 |
| 189 | this incredible momentum of AI and robots. | 这惊人的AI和机器人的动力。 |
| 190 | And at times I sort of think, well, perhaps, you know, | 有时候我觉得,也许,你知道, |
| 191 | even if there was a stop button, | 即使有一个停止按钮, |
| 192 | we probably shouldn't press it | 我们也许不应该按它 |
| 193 | because it was the most likely outcome | 因为这是最可能的结果 |
| 194 | is incredible abundance for all. | 对所有人都是不可思议的丰富。 |
| 195 | That's what I thought, actually. | 其实我也是这么想的 |
| 196 | It struck me that now you seem to have decided | 现在看来你决定了 |
| 197 | it's inevitable, let's hope for the best | 这是不可避免的,让我们希望最好的 |
| 198 | and go for the ride. | 和去骑。 |
| 199 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 200 | I mean, yes, pretty much. | 我的意思是,是的,相当多。 |
| 201 | Let's enjoy the ride is my philosophy at this point. | 让我们享受这段旅程,这是我的哲学 |
| 202 | I mean, honestly, there seems to be just an inexorable | 我的意思是,说实话, 似乎只有一个不可饶恕的 |
| 203 | progress here in AI and in robots | AI和机器人的进步 |
| 204 | that even if I wanted to stop it, I couldn't. | 即使我想阻止它,我也无法阻止 |
| 205 | Do you think there's still a 10 to 20% chance | 你觉得还有10%到20%的机会吗? |
| 206 | that killer robots mean the end of humanity? | 那个杀手机器人意味着人类的终结? |
| 207 | That's a high P-doom, as they say. | 正如他们说的,这是一个高P -doom。 |
| 208 | Well, in the long run, we're all dead, of course. | 当然,从长远来看,我们都死了 |
| 209 | So, I mean, according to the standard model of physics, | 所以,我的意思是,根据物理的标准模型, |
| 210 | the end of the universe is a long, boring, | 宇宙的尽头是漫长的 无聊的 |
| 211 | sort of thin gray soup of gradual cooling. | 一种逐渐冷却的薄灰色汤 |
| 212 | Meaning it's sort of the heat death of the universe is called. | 意思是宇宙的热死亡是所谓的 |
| 213 | So if the heat death of the universe is in fact | 所以,如果宇宙的热死亡 实际上是 |
| 214 | the outcome for our reality, | 现实的结果, |
| 215 | then it really is all about the journey | 那么这真的是所有关于旅程 |
| 216 | because the destination is terrible. | 因为目的地太可怕了 |
| 217 | Yeah, but 10 years is not very, | 是的,但10年不是非常, |
| 218 | I get that, but that could be a long way ahead. | 我明白,但这可能是很长的路要走。 |
| 219 | Yeah, a very long way, very, very long way. | 是啊,很长的路,很长的路。 |
| 220 | If it's 10 to 20% in 10 years, | 如果在10年内是10%到20% |
| 221 | would you go into one of your rockets | 你会进入你的火箭之一 |
| 222 | if you thought there was a 10 to 20% chance | 如果你认为有10%到20%的机会 |
| 223 | of it blowing up and killing you? | 炸掉并杀了你? |
| 224 | Yes, but let's say there's, | 是的,但让我们假设, |
| 225 | you can't do anything about it. | 你无法做任何事情。 |
| 226 | I guess the only thing we can try to do | 我想我们唯一能做的就是 |
| 227 | is minimize the probability of the bad outcome. | 将坏结果的概率降到最低。 |
| 228 | But trying to stop the intelligence in robots, | 但试图阻止机器人的智能, |
| 229 | I mean, for the longest time, I declined to participate in AI | 我的意思是,在最长的时间里,我拒绝参加AI |
| 230 | or was, you know, created open AI | 或者,你知道,创建了开放的AI |
| 231 | as essentially a counterweight to Google | 基本上与谷歌相对应 |
| 232 | because at the time they were, | 因为在当时, |
| 233 | they had more or less a monopoly on AI. | 他们或多或少垄断了大赦国际。 |
| 234 | 然后Anthropix从开放的AI中突起. | |
| 235 | And if anything, it seems like my actions | 如果有什么,它似乎是我的行动 |
| 236 | have really accelerated AI. | 人工智能已经加速了 |
| 237 | You know, I wasn't really aiming to accelerate AI, | 你知道,我真的没有 目标加速AI, |
| 238 | 但创建了开放的AI 然后有了Anthropix | |
| 239 | 从现在的Anthropix那里旋转 | |
| 240 | the leader in AI, I mean, these actions | 在AI的领袖,我的意思是,这些行动 |
| 241 | have actually resulted in knock-on effects | 实际造成了冲击效应 |
| 242 | that accelerated AI, which wasn't really my intention. | 加速AI, 这不是真的我的意图。 |
| 243 | So it just seems like all roads lead to acceleration of AI. | 因此,似乎所有的道路都导致AI加速. |
| 244 | So then I'm like, okay, well, you can just sort of be sad about it | 所以,我就像,好吧,嗯, 你可以只是有点伤心 |
| 245 | or join the club, I suppose. | 或加入俱乐部,我想。 |
| 246 | Well, you've certainly joined the club. | 嗯,你肯定已经加入了俱乐部。 |
| 247 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 248 | You've definitely joined the club. | 你绝对是俱乐部的一员 |
| 249 | If you can't beat them, join them, you know. | 如果你不能打败他们,加入他们,你知道的。 |
| 250 | Well, you've clearly done that and very successfully, | 嗯,你显然做了,非常成功, |
| 251 | but what about trying to minimize the risks? | 但怎样才能尽量降低风险呢? |
| 252 | And, you know, a number of the other leaders of model makers | 而且,你知道, 其他一些领袖的模型制造者 |
| 253 | have been pushing for different ways | 一直追求不同的方式 |
| 254 | to try and minimize the risks. | 尽量降低风险。 |
| 255 | You know, just last week, Demis Hassabis came out | 你知道,就在上周, 戴米斯・哈萨比斯出来 |
| 256 | with a proposal for a private-public regulator. | 提议设立私营-公共监管机构。 |
| 257 | I think you said it was a good starting point | 我想你说过这是一个很好的起点 |
| 258 | for discussions, I think. | 讨论,我想。 |
| 259 | Do you think you guys should be working more actively | 你觉得你们应该更积极工作吗? |
| 260 | to get something in place to control the risks, | 来控制风险 |
| 261 | or do you think that's impossible, too? | 或者你认为那是不可能的,太? |
| 262 | My recommendation to Demis, because I talked to him | 我向Demis推荐,因为我跟他谈过了 |
| 263 | for a few hours before he published his piece, | 在他发表他的作品前几个小时 |
| 264 | was that the most immediate thing that we could do | 那是我们能做的最直接的事 |
| 265 | is to have the leading AI companies at least just meet. | 至少要让领先的AI公司见面 |
| 266 | We'll have some sort of call once every few weeks | 每隔几周我们就会有电话 |
| 267 | and just discuss any safety and security issues, | 只要讨论任何安全保障问题, |
| 268 | and that before a breakthrough, | 在突破之前 |
| 269 | sort of a new frontier model is released, | 一种新的前沿模式已经发布, |
| 270 | something that sort of is far more intelligent | 那种更聪明的东西 |
| 271 | than anything that already exists, | 比任何已经存在的东西, |
| 272 | that there's an opportunity | 有一个机会 |
| 273 | for the various competing AI companies | 对各种相互竞争的AI公司而言 |
| 274 | to test that model for any harmful effects | 测试该模型的任何有害影响 |
| 275 | and to be able to recommend pausing | 并且能够推荐贫困 |
| 276 | to address some of these security issues. | 解决其中一些安全问题。 |
| 277 | I think that's sort of the easy, quick thing | 我觉得这有点容易,快 |
| 278 | that we can do, and it can evolve | 我们可以做, 它可以进化 |
| 279 | to more than that over time, | 超过一段时间, |
| 280 | but that I think would be a smart move. | 但我觉得这招很聪明 |
| 281 | But why haven't you done that yet? | 但你为什么不这样做呢? |
| 282 | I mean, there's like five of you, right? | 我是说 你们有五个人 对吧? |
| 283 | I mean, everyone knows the first name, Dario, Demis, Sam. | 每个人都知道名字 达里奥 戴米斯 萨姆 |
| 284 | I mean, you don't all like each other very much. | 我的意思是,你们不太喜欢对方。 |
| 285 | Yeah, but you're not all, | 是啊,但你不是所有, |
| 286 | I mean, you're also all competing, right? | 我的意思是,你们也在竞争,对不对? |
| 287 | You all want to be first. | 你们都想成为第一。 |
| 288 | Yes, but that's where I think the competitors | 是的,但是我觉得竞争者就是在这里 |
| 289 | can keep each other honest. | 可以保持彼此的诚实。 |
| 290 | So meaning like, I think it's quite difficult | 意思是,我觉得这很困难 |
| 291 | for someone in the government | 给政府里的人 |
| 292 | who doesn't have a deep technical understanding | 他们没有很深的技术理解 |
| 293 | and isn't driving the frontier of AI | 并且没有驾驶AI的前沿 |
| 294 | to know whether something should be released or not. | 以了解是否应该释放某些东西。 |
| 295 | However, the competitors, I think, | 然而,竞争者,我认为, |
| 296 | if given sort of a week or two to review a new model, | 如果有一周或两周的时间来审查一个新的模式, |
| 297 | can highlight issues and have an incentive to keep, | 能够突出问题并激励保持, |
| 298 | all the competitors have an incentive | 所有竞争者都有动机 |
| 299 | to keep the others honest. | 以保持其他人的诚实。 |
| 300 | Do you have enough trust between you to do that? | 你们之间有足够的信任吗? |
| 301 | I mean, you don't much like each other. | 我的意思是,你们不太喜欢对方。 |
| 302 | Wouldn't Sam Altman just think | 山姆·阿尔特曼不会认为 |
| 303 | that you're going to nick all his ideas if you did that? | 如果你这么做了 你会把他所有的想法都拿走吗? |
| 304 | Well, we're just talking about a week, honestly. | 好吧,我们只是谈论 一个星期,说实话。 |
| 305 | I think as little as a week is all that would be needed | 我觉得只要一个星期就够了 |
| 306 | for private testing. | 私人测试 |
| 307 | It's not to hand over the AI. | 不是交出AI. |
| 308 | It's just to test it. | 只为验得. |
| 309 | To test it. | 以验之. |
| 310 | Have you proposed this? | 你提议了吗? |
| 311 | Yeah, just to test it via an API or something. | 是啊,只是测试 通过API什么的。 |
| 312 | I think that would probably be a good thing to do. | 我觉得这也许是件好事 |
| 313 | Have you proposed it? | 你提议了吗? |
| 314 | I mean, you could presumably organize that. | 我的意思是,你大概可以组织。 |
| 315 | That's what I suggested to Demis. | 这就是我向Demis提出的建议。 |
| 316 | And I guess I'll talk to Daria about it too. | 我想我也会和达莉亚谈谈的 |
| 317 | There's also, of course, | 当然还有 |
| 318 | some very competent Chinese AI companies | 一些非常称职的中国AI公司 |
| 319 | that are several that are very good. | 这是几个非常好的。 |
| 320 | The new Kimi model. | 新基米型号. |
| 321 | Kimi K3, yeah, the one that came out last week has, | Kimi K3,是的,上星期出来的那个 |
| 322 | I mean, it was almost as good as Fable, right? | 我的意思是,它几乎 和Fable一样好,对不对? |
| 323 | Well, I think realistically, | 我觉得很现实 |
| 324 | Fable is still clearly the smartest model. | 寓言显然仍然是最聪明的模型. |
| 325 | I think anyone realistically would say | 我想任何人都会说 |
| 326 | that that's still the case. | 情况依然如此。 |
| 327 | But the Kimi model is getting quite close to Fable. | 但基米模型已经接近Fable了 |
| 328 | Now, Anthropic had Mythos from which Fable is derived. | 现在,Anthropic有神话 寓言是从中衍生出来的。 |
| 329 | I think they had that ready in February. | 我想他们已经在2月份准备好了 |
| 330 | So they've got, I don't know what they'd call it, | 所以,他们得到了,我不知道 他们会叫它, |
| 331 | Mythos 2 or Fable 6 or something, | 神话2或寓言6之类的, |
| 332 | something much better than what they had in February. | 比二月的要好得多 |
| 333 | They almost certainly have, not almost certainly, | 他们几乎肯定, 并非几乎肯定, |
| 334 | they certainly have right now. | 他们肯定有现在。 |
| 335 | And I think they could release it at any time. | 我想他们可以随时发布 |
| 336 | Just before we get on to releasing, | 就在我们开始释放之前 |
| 337 | how do you think about the Chinese models | 你觉得中国模特怎么样? |
| 338 | and the geopolitics of it? | 和它的地缘政治? |
| 339 | Are you worried about the Chinese catching up | 你担心中国人追赶吗? |
| 340 | and getting ahead? | 和前进? |
| 341 | Given that the Chinese AI companies | 鉴于中国AI公司 |
| 342 | are doing as well as they are | 做得还不错 |
| 343 | with a relatively small amount of compute, | 与相对较少的计算, |
| 344 | it seems that if they had a lot of compute, | 看来如果他们有很多计算 |
| 345 | there's a good chance that they would be the leaders. | 他们很有可能是领导人 |
| 346 | And at some point, they probably will have a lot of compute. | 在某个时候,他们可能有很多计算。 |
| 347 | So they will, ergo, they will be the leaders. | 所以他们会,呃,他们是领导者。 |
| 348 | There's a good chance that they are the leaders | 很有可能他们就是领袖 |
| 349 | at some point. | 在某个时候。 |
| 350 | You can think of the constraints on AI | 你可以考虑AI的局限性 |
| 351 | are essentially electricity and AI chips. | 主要是电和AI芯片。 |
| 352 | And then for physical AI, the robots. | 然后为物理AI,机器人。 |
| 353 | China's also got some very good robot companies. | 中国也有一些非常好的机器人公司. |
| 354 | In fact, they have these robot sporting events. | 事实上,他们有这些机器人体育活动。 |
| 355 | I don't know if you've seen some of them. | 我不知道你有没有见过他们 |
| 356 | Yes, I have. | 是的,我见过。 |
| 357 | Last time I was in Beijing, I saw the robots. | 上次在北京,我看到机器人。 |
| 358 | Well, and then they have this sort of like a boxing match | 那么,然后他们有这种 像拳击比赛 |
| 359 | or a fighting match with the robots, | 或与机器人对决 |
| 360 | which is quite entertaining. | 这很有趣。 |
| 361 | And I saw somebody, a robot that got its head knocked off, | 我看到有人,一个被撞掉的机器人 |
| 362 | it kept fighting, even with its head knocked off. | 它继续战斗,甚至头部被砍掉。 |
| 363 | It looked pretty funny. | 看起来很有趣 |
| 364 | But I mean, in fact, I think the robot battles | 但事实上,我觉得机器人的战斗 |
| 365 | are going to be quite entertaining to watch. | 将是非常有趣的观看。 |
| 366 | But just- | 不过... |
| 367 | So China's very strong on robots, | 所以中国对机器人很强 |
| 368 | very strong on digital AI. | 在数字AI上非常强壮. |
| 369 | And if you look at electricity production, | 如果你看看发电, |
| 370 | you can say like AI is a function of | 你可以说,像AI是函数 |
| 371 | whatever the limiting factor is, | 无论限制因素是什么, |
| 372 | if it's chips or electricity, | 如果它是芯片或电力, |
| 373 | China has far more electricity than the United States. | 中国的电力远多于美国. |
| 374 | In fact, China has more electricity than the United States, | 事实上,中国的电力比美国多, |
| 375 | Europe, and India combined already, | 欧洲和印度已经加起来 |
| 376 | and is heading to, | 并正前往, |
| 377 | my guess is China gets to four times | 我猜中国有四次了 |
| 378 | the electricity production of the US, | 美国的电力生产, |
| 379 | which is roughly proportionate to the population. | 这与人口大致相称。 |
| 380 | What should the US government do about this? | 美国政府应该怎么办? |
| 381 | I mean, presumably it is a little alarming | 我的意思是,大概是有点令人震惊 |
| 382 | if you have an authoritarian regime | 如果你有一个专制政权 |
| 383 | far ahead in the most powerful technology. | 在最强大的技术上 远领先。 |
| 384 | And clearly what the US government's been trying to do | 显然,美国政府一直在试图做什么 |
| 385 | is with the export controls and so forth, | 与出口管制等, |
| 386 | keep China back. | 让中国退后。 |
| 387 | Do you think they should ban the use of K3? | 你认为他们应该禁止使用K3吗? |
| 388 | Give me K3, for example? | 比如说给我K3? |
| 389 | Well, the US government can't, | 美国政府不能 |
| 390 | they can pass some law that prevents US companies | 他们可以通过一些法律来阻止美国公司 |
| 391 | from using Chinese models, | 从使用中国模型, |
| 392 | but they can't stop the rest of the world from using them. | 但是他们无法阻止世界其他人使用它们。 |
| 393 | So it's not like the US government has authority over China | 所以,这不像美国政府对中国有权力 |
| 394 | or the rest of the world. | 或世间众生. |
| 395 | Do you think they should stop US companies from using them? | 你认为他们应该阻止美国公司使用它们吗? |
| 396 | Let's talk of that right now, right? | 现在就说吧 |
| 397 | I don't think that helps. | 我不认为这有帮助。 |
| 398 | That won't stop China from being the leader in AI. | 这不会阻止中国成为AI的领导者. |
| 399 | Really, for digital intelligence, | 真的,对于数字情报, |
| 400 | it comes down to how much AI compute do you have? | 你有多少人工智能计算? |
| 401 | Well, how many chips do you have | 好吧,你有多少筹码 |
| 402 | and how much power do you have? | 你有多少权力? |
| 403 | How much electricity do you have? | 你有多少电? |
| 404 | So the constraint right now, I think, | 所以,现在的制约,我想, |
| 405 | is actually slightly more on power and cooling | 电量和冷却量都比较大 |
| 406 | than it is on AI chips, | 比在AI芯片上, |
| 407 | because the power demands of the AI chips are very, very high. | 因为AI芯片的功率要求非常,非常高. |
| 408 | We'll talk about water demands, | 我们谈谈水需求 |
| 409 | but really the water usage of AI is negligible, | 但人工智能的用水量是微不足道的, |
| 410 | almost nothing. | 几乎什么都没有。 |
| 411 | But the electrical demand is very high. | 但电力需求非常高. |
| 412 | That's why you're thinking of orbital data centers, | 这就是为什么你考虑 轨道数据中心, |
| 413 | presumably, that's... | 假设,这是... |
| 414 | Yes, the constraint for any AI chips | 是的,任何AI芯片的制约 |
| 415 | not being turned on in China | 在中国没有被打开 |
| 416 | is electricity, like power and cooling, | 是电,如电和冷却, |
| 417 | and the electrical equipment and everything. | 还有电器和一切 |
| 418 | The rate at which AI chips are being made | AI芯片的制作速度 |
| 419 | exceeds the rate at which new electricity is coming online. | 超过新电力上线的速度。 |
| 420 | In China. | 在中国. |
| 421 | Outside of China. | 在中国境外. |
| 422 | Outside China, I see, yeah. | 在中国之外,我明白了,是的。 |
| 423 | And since China, | 自从中国以来 |
| 424 | the US has banned the export of the latest AI chips to China, | 美国禁止向中国出口最新的AI芯片, |
| 425 | China is somewhat chip-starved. | 中国有些芯片渴望。 |
| 426 | But they are becoming much more efficient | 但他们越来越有效率 |
| 427 | using the chips that they have. | 使用他们的芯片。 |
| 428 | And one of the striking things of Kimi K3, right, | 还有Kimi K3的惊人之处之一 |
| 429 | is how efficiently they... | 他们的效率... |
| 430 | And China is also, | 中国也是, |
| 431 | I think, close than most people realize | 我想,比大多数人意识到 |
| 432 | to solving the lithography problem, | 解决石刻问题, |
| 433 | which would enable them to make AI chips | 能让他们制造AI芯片 |
| 434 | at very large volumes. | 在非常大的数量。 |
| 435 | So I think there's... | 所以我觉得... |
| 436 | This shouldn't evolve into just a China conversation, | 这不应该演变成中国的谈话 |
| 437 | but... | 不过... |
| 438 | So the current constraint is electricity outside of China. | 所以目前制约的是中国以外的电力. |
| 439 | In China, the constraint is chips. | 在中国,制约是芯片. |
| 440 | Once we address the power constraint | 一旦我们解决了权力限制 |
| 441 | with AI data centers in space, | 在空间有AI数据中心, |
| 442 | then the constraint will once again be chips | 那么,限制将再次是芯片 |
| 443 | outside of China. | 在中国境外。 |
| 444 | That suggests to me that you need China and the US, | 这说明你需要中国和美国 |
| 445 | if you're going to have some overall safety constraints, | 如果你会有一些总体的安全限制, |
| 446 | that they will need to work together. | 他们需要合作。 |
| 447 | If you are going to try and... | 如果你想试试... |
| 448 | And you suggested the five model makers here working. | 你建议这里的五个模型制造者工作。 |
| 449 | Probably it should include the Chinese companies | 可能应该包括中国公司 |
| 450 | that are doing frontier AI models too. | 正在做前沿AI模型。 |
| 451 | And do you think governments need to be involved? | 你认为政府需要参与吗? |
| 452 | My recommendation would be that if some of the leading | 我的建议是,如果一些领导者 |
| 453 | companies in AI say that a new model is very dangerous, | AI公司表示,新模式非常危险, |
| 454 | then they should inform the government. | 他们应该通知政府 |
| 455 | And if a new model is very dangerous | 如果一个新的模型非常危险 |
| 456 | and that the company producing that model | 而生产该模型的公司 |
| 457 | is not taking steps to address the danger, | 没有采取措施应对危险, |
| 458 | then they should alert the government to take action | 他们应该提醒政府采取行动 |
| 459 | to limit the release of that model. | 限制该模型的发布。 |
| 460 | And that could be action by the Chinese government | 这可能是中国政府的行动 |
| 461 | or action by the US government. | 或美国政府的行动。 |
| 462 | It's really just the US government | 其实只是美国政府 |
| 463 | and the Chinese government that have the power | 和中国政府拥有权力 |
| 464 | to take action here. | 在这里采取行动。 |
| 465 | I guess people would be worried about relying on | 我想人们会担心依赖 |
| 466 | a group of model builders to decide whether to do this. | 一组建模者来决定是否这样做。 |
| 467 | I mean, if you look at what the US government | 我的意思是,如果你看看 什么美国政府 |
| 468 | has done with Mythos, they stepped in | 已经与神话,他们介入 |
| 469 | because they were worried about the cyber security risks | 因为他们担心网络安全风险 |
| 470 | and they stepped in using threat of export controls | 他们利用出口管制的威胁 |
| 471 | to prevent the widespread release of this model. | 防止这种模式的广泛发布。 |
| 472 | I find it hard to see how governments | 我很难看政府是如何 |
| 473 | will not want to keep that power, | 将不想保持这种力量, |
| 474 | that they ultimately decide whether a model gets released. | 他们最终决定一个模型是否被释放。 |
| 475 | I think they should have that power, | 我认为他们应该有这种力量, |
| 476 | but it wasn't as though someone in the government | 但政府里没有别人 |
| 477 | figured out that Mythos had some scary cyber security risks. | 发现神话有一些可怕的网络安全风险。 |
| 478 | It was Amazon. | 这是亚马逊。 |
| 479 | Amazon highlighted this and Amazon called the White House. | 亚马逊强调这一点,亚马逊称白宫. |
| 480 | So you'd have a system where the model makers | 所以,你会有一个系统 在那里的模型制造 |
| 481 | would check each other's work. | 会检查对方的工作。 |
| 482 | If there was something that worried them, | 如果有什么事情让他们担心 |
| 483 | you'd tell the government. | 你会告诉政府。 |
| 484 | The government would then take action. | 政府随后将采取行动。 |
| 485 | If there's something that was worrisome | 如果有什么值得担心的 |
| 486 | and that company was not doing anything | 那家公司什么也没做 |
| 487 | to address that risk, then that would be the moment | 解决这一风险,然后是时机 |
| 488 | for government to step in and take action, | 政府介入并采取行动, |
| 489 | which is literally what occurred with Mythos. | 这就是神话中发生的事 |
| 490 | How soon does this have to happen? | 这要多久? |
| 491 | I think it'd be good to do that immediately, really. | 我觉得应该马上这么做 真的 |
| 492 | That's what people keep telling me. | 这就是人们一直告诉我的。 |
| 493 | We have to get this some kind of system | 我们得搞个系统 |
| 494 | in the next six months because of the pace | 在接下来的6个月里,因为速度 |
| 495 | at which the models are improving. | 模型正在改进。 |
| 496 | Yeah, six months is a long time. | 是啊,六个月是很长的时间。 |
| 497 | So you think shorter than that? | 所以你觉得比这短? |
| 498 | Well, I mean, there's so many AI breakthrough announcements, | 嗯,我的意思是,有这么多的AI突破公告, |
| 499 | sometimes multiple per day. | 有时候是每天多次。 |
| 500 | I mean, how many were there last week? | 我的意思是,有多少 上周在那里? |
| 501 | A lot. | 经常 |
| 502 | I lost track. | 我失去了轨道。 |
| 503 | Yeah, a lot. | 对,很多 |
| 504 | So you basically, whether it's Demis' proposal or others, | 所以你基本上 无论是Demis的提议还是其他人的提议 |
| 505 | you need to get together and get this set up | 你需要聚在一起, 得到这个设置 |
| 506 | kind of now, it sounds like you're telling me. | 现在,听起来你告诉我。 |
| 507 | Yeah, I would recommend that we at least | 是的,我建议我们至少 |
| 508 | have some sort of informal weekly or bi-weekly call | 有某种非正式的周或双周电话 |
| 509 | and that there's maybe a week or two weeks | 也许有一周或两周 |
| 510 | of early access by competitors. | 被竞争者提前进入。 |
| 511 | And this is why I think the incentives work, | 这就是为什么我认为激励是有效的, |
| 512 | is because if competing companies, I think, | 因为如果竞争的公司,我认为, |
| 513 | are likely to understand if something is a security risk | 如果某物构成安全风险,则有可能理解 |
| 514 | and they're not going to be shy about highlighting | 他们不会害羞地强调 |
| 515 | that their competitors' models | 他们的竞争者模式 |
| 516 | should be delayed in release. | 应推迟释放。 |
| 517 | I think the infrastructure does work quite well there. | 我认为,基础设施在那里运作得很好。 |
| 518 | And if, this is sort of how it works | 如果是这样的话 |
| 519 | with the Motion Picture Association. | 与动画协会. |
| 520 | It's an industry group that decides | 这是一个行业集团 决定 |
| 521 | how movies should be rated, | 如何评价电影, |
| 522 | whether it's appropriate for young children or not. | 是否适合幼儿。 |
| 523 | And that seems to have worked quite well. | 这似乎很有效。 |
| 524 | So, and then you really just ask the government | 所以,然后你真的 问政府 |
| 525 | to intervene if a company's doing something very dangerous | 如果一家公司做了非常危险的事 就会介入 |
| 526 | and refuses to take action to reduce the danger. | 并拒绝采取行动减少危险。 |
| 527 | Do you think, this is a tricky one, | 你觉得这个很棘手吗? |
| 528 | but you guys don't much like each other | 但是你们不太喜欢对方 |
| 529 | and you don't much trust each other. | 你们互相不信任 |
| 530 | You're insulting each other on social media constantly. | 你们在社交媒体上不断侮辱对方 |
| 531 | So do you think you can do that with people | 所以,你认为你可以做到这一点与人 |
| 532 | that you dislike, where there seems to be | 你不喜欢,那里似乎有 |
| 533 | such kind of personal vitriol | 此类个人毒液 |
| 534 | between some of these leaders? | 这些领导人之间? |
| 535 | Yes, well, I'm not a fan of Sam Ullman because... | 对,我不是萨姆·乌尔曼的粉丝 因为... |
| 536 | You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. | 你在看我采访伊隆·穆斯克 |
| 537 | If you want to get early access to other interviews, | 如果你想早点接受其他采访 |
| 538 | subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above. | 点击以上链接订阅《经济学家》。 |
| 539 | Now, back to the interview. | 现在,回到采访。 |
| 540 | If you started a non-profit | 如果你开始非营利 |
| 541 | that was meant to be an open source AI company | 原意是开源AI公司 |
| 542 | and owned by the world, | 并归全世界所有, |
| 543 | and it somehow got turned into | 不知何故变成了 |
| 544 | an $800 billion full-profit company with closed source, | 一家8000亿美元的全资公司 与封闭源, |
| 545 | I think you'd be like, well, wait a second, | 我想你会像,嗯,等一下, |
| 546 | that's the exact opposite of what I donated the money for. | 这跟我捐钱的目的完全相反 |
| 547 | That's my issue. | 这是我的问题。 |
| 548 | I think it's a legitimate one. | 我认为这是一个合法的。 |
| 549 | And then Dario, I think, also is not a fan of Sam Ullman | 我想达里奥也不喜欢萨姆·乌尔曼 |
| 550 | because he felt, in fact, the reason the Anthropic team | 因为他觉得,事实上, 安特罗皮克队的原因 |
| 551 | OpenAI是因为他们不信任Sam Ullman | |
| 552 | 否则,Anthropic就不存在了. | |
| 553 | 他们还在OpenAI。 | |
| 554 | I think Dario is a very principled person. | 我认为达里奥是个很有原则的人 |
| 555 | He cares about things a lot. | 他关心的事情很多。 |
| 556 | He cares about the future of the world. | 他关心世界的未来。 |
| 557 | And I think everyone I've met at Anthropic so far has been... | 我觉得我在安特罗皮克见过的每个人... |
| 558 | Like, no one set off my evil detector. | 没人能启动我的邪恶探测器 |
| 559 | They always seem like they're well-intentioned. | 他们总是看起来很有用 |
| 560 | And the road to hell is, I think, | 而通往地狱的道路是,我想, |
| 561 | mostly paved with bad intentions. | 大多是用恶意铺的 |
| 562 | There are a few well-intentioned paving stones in there, | 里面有几块用心良好的石块, |
| 563 | so we don't want to be complacent. | 所以我们不想自满 |
| 564 | But at the end of the day, if we have to talk, we'll talk. | 但终日,若得言语,亦得言语. |
| 565 | Set aside our personal differences for the good of the world. | 抛开我们个人的分歧,为世界造福. |
| 566 | Well, that's a very good thing for the rest of us to hear. | 好吧,这是非常好的事情 我们其他人听到。 |
| 567 | Can we turn to one other risk that people worry about? | 我们能否转向人们担心的另一个风险? |
| 568 | Particularly, I think, ordinary Americans, | 尤其是,我认为,普通美国人, |
| 569 | where AI has become incredibly unpopular. | 在那里,大赦国际变得非常不受欢迎。 |
| 570 | 75% of people are worried about it. | 75%的人对此感到担忧. |
| 571 | And I think they worry about their jobs. | 我觉得他们很担心自己的工作 |
| 572 | And if you look at... | 如果你看着... |
| 573 | 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs | 50%的起职白领工作 |
| 574 | will be gone within a few years. | 几年内就会消失 |
| 575 | You're building humanoid robots. | 你在制造人造机器人。 |
| 576 | Yes, he also said... | 是的 他还说... |
| 577 | I mean, Dario did dig his own grave here regarding Mythos, | 我的意思是,达里奥在这里挖了自己的坟墓 关于神话, |
| 578 | because he said, you know, | 因为他说,你知道, |
| 579 | Mythos is, like, super scary, terrifying, | 神话是一样,超级恐怖,恐怖, |
| 580 | and also, by the way, we're going to release it. | 而且,顺便说一句,我们要发布它。 |
| 581 | And then he's like, what do you mean? | 然后他喜欢,你是什么意思? |
| 582 | You know, so I think he... | 所以我觉得他... |
| 583 | I think probably in the future | 我觉得将来吧 |
| 584 | we'll choose his words differently. | 我们用不同的语言来选择他 |
| 585 | But what's your... | 不过你... |
| 586 | If you terrify everyone and then say, | 如果你吓着所有人然后说, |
| 587 | oh, we're releasing this terrifying thing, | 哦,我们正在释放这个可怕的东西, |
| 588 | people will obviously be alarmed about that. | 人们显然会对此感到震惊。 |
| 589 | You know, you've literally told them to be scared, | 你告诉他们要害怕 |
| 590 | and then you release the scary thing, | 然后,你释放了可怕的东西, |
| 591 | and so they will be scared. | 所以他们会害怕。 |
| 592 | That is natural. | 这是自然的。 |
| 593 | So I certainly don't want you to alarm people, | 所以我不想让你吓唬别人 |
| 594 | but I do think there is a really important debate | 但我确实认为 有一个非常重要的辩论 |
| 595 | about how quickly and to what degree | 关于速度和程度 |
| 596 | AI has displaced people from jobs. | 大赦国际使人们失业。 |
| 597 | Because it is, as you say, in 10 years, | 因为如你所说 十年后 |
| 598 | there's more artificial intelligence | 还有更多的人工智能 |
| 599 | than any human intelligence. | 比任何人类的智慧。 |
| 600 | And if you are ahead of everyone, | 如果你领先于所有人 |
| 601 | at least in this country, on powering humanoid robots, | 至少在这个国家, 关于动力人造机器人, |
| 602 | that's also going to be kind of factory work. | 这也是工厂的工作 |
| 603 | So are you closer to Dario, let's say, | 所以,你接近达里奥,让我们说, |
| 604 | in your sense of the pace | 从你的速度来看 |
| 605 | at which jobs are going to be displaced? | 哪些工作将流离失所? |
| 606 | I do think it's going to be a bumpy road, | 我觉得这路上会很颠簸 |
| 607 | because AI will be able to do any job | 因为AI可以做任何工作 |
| 608 | better than any person can do that job. | 比任何人都能做这个工作。 |
| 609 | And that will be true very quickly | 那将很快实现 |
| 610 | of jobs that are digital, | 数字化工作, |
| 611 | or really anything that involves a person | 或真正涉及一个人的一切 |
| 612 | at a computer or on a phone. | 在电脑或手机上。 |
| 613 | AI could do all of that. | AI可以做到这一点。 |
| 614 | We'll be able to do all of that very soon. | 我们会很快做到的 |
| 615 | For software engineering, | 关于软件工程, |
| 616 | we already have a situation where AI is better | 我们已经有了AI更好的情况 |
| 617 | than at least 90% of humans. | 超过至少90%的人类。 |
| 618 | At writing software. | 在写作软件。 |
| 619 | 90% of professional software engineers | 90%的专业软件工程师 |
| 620 | at writing software. | 在写软件。 |
| 621 | And it really is getting to the point | 这真的已经到了重点 |
| 622 | where it'll be better than 99%. | 在那里它会比99%更好。 |
| 623 | And then it'll get to the point | 然后它会得到 重点 |
| 624 | where there's just no way to compete. | 在没有办法竞争的地方 |
| 625 | It'll get to what I call stockfish level. | 能达到我所说的鱼群水平 |
| 626 | So stockfish. | 故鱼鱼. |
| 627 | Stockfish is the chess program. | 斯托克鱼是国际象棋计划. |
| 628 | Stockfish is so good at chess | 鱼鱼很会下棋 |
| 629 | that it will easily beat Magnus Carlsen | 很容易打败马格努斯·卡尔森 |
| 630 | or anyone at chess, | 或下棋的任何人, |
| 631 | even running on a small computer. | 甚至用小电脑运行 |
| 632 | I suspect that you could probably run stockfish | 我怀疑你可能经营鱼群 |
| 633 | on your phone and beat Magnus Carlsen. | 在你的手机上,并打败马格纳斯卡尔森。 |
| 634 | That's how good it is at chess. | 曰如何是好棋处. |
| 635 | And that's how good AI will be at writing software. | 写软件的AI会这么好 |
| 636 | And beyond software? | 除了软件? |
| 637 | Beyond. | 超越。 |
| 638 | And that applies to everything. | 这适用于一切。 |
| 639 | Everything. | 一切众生. |
| 640 | Everything, everything. | 一切一切众生. |
| 641 | Everything. | 一切众生. |
| 642 | But what about for physical jobs, | 但对于身体工作, |
| 643 | for assembly jobs, | 用于组装工作, |
| 644 | you will also need the capability in humanoid robots, | 你还需要人造机器人的能力, |
| 645 | which so far isn't there yet, is it? | 目前还没有,是吗? |
| 646 | Right. | 对 |
| 647 | So that's why I said digital AI | 所以我才说数字AI |
| 648 | and then physically manifested AI | 然后身体表现的AI |
| 649 | in the form of robots. | 以机器人的形式出现. |
| 650 | Where the robot is more or less an end effector. | 在机器人或多或少是终端效应器的地方. |
| 651 | It would have some amount of local intelligence | 会有一定的本地情报 |
| 652 | but be managed by a large AI model. | 但由大型AI模型管理. |
| 653 | And I've said many times, | 我已经说过很多次了 |
| 654 | I think work is going to be optional. | 我认为工作将是可选的。 |
| 655 | So I think maybe a good comparison would be gardening. | 所以,我认为也许一个很好的比较 是园艺。 |
| 656 | Like you don't have to garden. | 譬如不须园林. |
| 657 | You don't have to grow vegetables in your garden. | 园中不须种菜. |
| 658 | You can go to the store | 你可以去店里买东西了 |
| 659 | and there are going to be pristine vegetables | 会有原始的蔬菜 |
| 660 | or you could grow vegetables in your garden | 或者在花园里种蔬菜 |
| 661 | and they will actually be less perfect. | 他们实际上会变得不那么完美。 |
| 662 | Your tomatoes are not going to be as plump and juicy | 你的西红柿不会那么多汁 |
| 663 | as the ones at the store. | 就像商店里的人一样 |
| 664 | They'll look a little artisanal. | 他们会看起来有点手工。 |
| 665 | But if you go to a friend's house | 但是如果你去朋友家的话 |
| 666 | and they make dinner with vegetables from their garden, | 他们用园圃里的蔬菜做晚餐, |
| 667 | it's a nice touch. | 感觉不错 |
| 668 | So that's what work is going to be like. | 这就是工作会是什么样子。 |
| 669 | I get that. | 我懂了,我懂你说什么 I get that. |
| 670 | In that world I would be hopeless | 在那个世界上,我会无望的 |
| 671 | because I can't garden to save my life. | 因为我不能园林来拯救我的生命。 |
| 672 | But I get the idea. | 但我明白这个想法。 |
| 673 | People still like playing chess with each other | 人们还是喜欢互相下棋 |
| 674 | even though every computer is better. | 即使每台电脑都更好 |
| 675 | But let's just think about the politics of this. | 但是,让我们考虑一下这个的政治. |
| 676 | Because it sounds like you're describing a world | 因为这听起来就像你在描述一个世界 |
| 677 | where within 10 years pretty much every job | 在10年内几乎每一份工作 |
| 678 | can be done better by an intelligence. | 情报可以做得更好 |
| 679 | And you're seeing huge returns to this intelligence. | 你正在看到这个情报的巨大回报。 |
| 680 | Two people like you, | 像你这样的两个人 |
| 681 | you're the wealthiest man in the world. | 你是世界上最富有的人 |
| 682 | What people who lose their jobs, who are displaced, | 那些失去工作、流离失所的人 |
| 683 | who may go off and garden, | 他们将去乐园, |
| 684 | but how are they going to live? | 但他们怎么生活? |
| 685 | And what kind of, I mean, it sounds to me like- | 什么样的,我的意思是, 它听起来像... |
| 686 | Universal high income. | 普遍高收入。 |
| 687 | But how are you going to get there? | 但你要怎么过去? |
| 688 | Let's talk about the politics of this. | 谈此之政治. |
| 689 | Because right now we, | 因为现在我们 |
| 690 | if we look at the political pressures in most countries, | 如果我们看看大多数国家的政治压力, |
| 691 | people are very, very worried about this, very against it. | 人们非常非常担心,非常反对。 |
| 692 | It seems to me that there's a risk | 在我看来有危险 |
| 693 | that we are heading more for revolution | 我们正朝着革命的方向前进 |
| 694 | than for an easy route to this nirvana you're playing at. | 而不是去你玩的这个荷兰的路 |
| 695 | I mean, it will be a bumpy road. | 我的意思是,这将是一条崎岖的道路。 |
| 696 | I'm not suggesting it will be sort of, | 我并不是说会有点... |
| 697 | that everything will be smooth sailing here. | 一切都会顺利地航行在这里。 |
| 698 | So, I mean, there are many jobs that used to exist | 所以,我的意思是,有很多工作 曾经存在 |
| 699 | that don't exist because of computers. | 因为电脑而不存在 |
| 700 | I mean, the word computer used to refer | 我的意思是,计算机这个词用来指 |
| 701 | to a person doing computations. | 给一个人做计算。 |
| 702 | Like that used to be a job description of a person. | 就像那曾经是一个人的工作描述。 |
| 703 | And you can see pictures online of buildings | 你可以在网上看到建筑物的照片 |
| 704 | that have entire skyscrapers, | 拥有整个摩天大楼, |
| 705 | just filled with people doing calculations | 刚刚满满的人做计算 |
| 706 | to do things like calculate the interest | 以计算利息 |
| 707 | on your bank balance. | 你的银行存款 |
| 708 | This is how things were done for a long time | 事情就是这么长时期的 |
| 709 | until computers came around. | 直到电脑出现 |
| 710 | And even in the beginning, | 即使一开始 |
| 711 | computers were very expensive and hard to use. | 计算机非常昂贵,难以使用。 |
| 712 | So the thing that's different here | 所以这里的事物不同了 |
| 713 | is that the pace of change is radically accelerated. | 即变革的步伐大大加快。 |
| 714 | So, but still people, you know, | 所以,但人们,你知道, |
| 715 | some people were upset that they, | 有些人很不高兴, |
| 716 | their job of calculating bank interest | 银行利息的计算 |
| 717 | would no longer be available. | 将不再提供。 |
| 718 | But now I think there's, | 但现在我觉得... |
| 719 | you'll be hard pressed to find people | 你会很难找到人 |
| 720 | who want to do that job. | 谁想做这个工作。 |
| 721 | So I think, I have a suggestion for, | 所以我想 我有个建议 |
| 722 | say, what, say, science fiction books | 科幻小说 |
| 723 | people might want to read to get a sense | 人们可能想阅读 得到感知 |
| 724 | of what the future will be like. | 未来将是什么样子。 |
| 725 | And the best envisioning of an AI future | 对AI未来的最佳设想 |
| 726 | that I've read are the books by Ian Banks, | 我读过伊恩·班克斯的书 |
| 727 | the culture books. | 文化书籍。 |
| 728 | I'm just reading accession. | 我只是在读加入书 |
| 729 | So I, thanks to you, I've started reading these. | 所以我,谢谢你,我开始读这些。 |
| 730 | I actually don't find that future a terribly appealing one | 其实我并不觉得将来会很吸引人 |
| 731 | because I don't think humans have agency in that future. | 因为我认为人类将来没有代理 |
| 732 | They have agency. | 他们有代理。 |
| 733 | Minimal compared to the minds. | 和大脑相比是最小的 |
| 734 | In their small way. | 以他们小道. |
| 735 | But yeah, irony, I mean, Ian Banks, as you know, | 但是,是的,讽刺,我的意思是,伊恩·班克斯,你知道, |
| 736 | was a socialist. | 是个社会主义者 |
| 737 | Ian Banks had a very different political philosophy. | 伊恩·班克斯有非常不同的政治哲学. |
| 738 | I'm not sure I would entirely agree with that. | 我不肯定我会完全同意这一点。 |
| 739 | Let's agree that that could be where we end up. | 让我们同意,那可能是 我们的结局。 |
| 740 | I'm concerned about the road. | 我担心的是路 |
| 741 | And we live, you know, we live in democracies | 我们生活在民主中 |
| 742 | and people are very worried about this. | 人们对此非常担心。 |
| 743 | So I guess two questions. | 所以我猜两个问题。 |
| 744 | Firstly, do you have to have massive redistribution | 首先,你必须大规模再分配 |
| 745 | from people like you to the people | 从你这样的人到人民 |
| 746 | who are losing their jobs? | 谁要丢掉工作? |
| 747 | Do you need to have, do you need to pay more tax? | 你需要交税吗? |
| 748 | Do you have much higher taxes on capital | 你资本税有更高吗? |
| 749 | so that you fund some kind of universal income? | 所以你资助某种普遍收入? |
| 750 | Otherwise, what do people live off? | 否则,人们靠什么生活? |
| 751 | I think that the treasury should just simply | 我觉得国库应该很简单 |
| 752 | issue people checks. | 发布人检查。 |
| 753 | But where's the revenue coming from? | 但收入从何而来. |
| 754 | I mean, I'm enough of an economist. | 我的意思是,我受够了 一个经济学家。 |
| 755 | If you just issue checks, you're going to have inflation. | 如果你只是签发支票, 你会有通货膨胀。 |
| 756 | It, you know, this is like a lot of what we're trying | 你知道,这就像很多 我们正在尝试 |
| 757 | to think about is these things were relevant in the past. | 想想过去这些事情是相关的 |
| 758 | They will not be relevant in the future. | 它们今后将不再相关。 |
| 759 | So like inflation is simply the ratio of money | 就像通货膨胀只是钱的比例 |
| 760 | to the, to, to goods and services. | 到,到,到,到货物和服务。 |
| 761 | So if the goods and services output increases dramatically, | 因此,如果商品和服务产出急剧增加, |
| 762 | if it increases, you know, a thousand percent, | 如果它增加,你知道,千分百, |
| 763 | you can increase the, you can literally print | 你可以增加,你可以字面打印 |
| 764 | so in these cases, change the database, | 因此,在这种情况下,改变数据库, |
| 765 | not print money. | 不是印钞票 |
| 766 | You create money in the database, | 你在数据库里创造钱 |
| 767 | provided the creation of that money | 提供创造资金 |
| 768 | is less than the rate at which goods and services increase, | 低于货物和服务的增加率, |
| 769 | you actually have deflation. | 你实际上有通货紧缩。 |
| 770 | So I'll make a prediction, which is that | 所以,我会做一个预测,这就是 |
| 771 | deflation will be the issue, not inflation. | 通货紧缩将是问题,而不是通货膨胀。 |
| 772 | Because as the output of goods and services increases, | 因为随着商品和服务产出的增加, |
| 773 | if the output of goods and services increases | 如果货物和服务的产出增加 |
| 774 | faster than the money supply, you all have deflation. | 比货币供应快,你们都有通货紧缩。 |
| 775 | I'm actually, I'm perfectly willing to believe that. | 实际上,我完全愿意相信这一点。 |
| 776 | You may well be right. | 你也许是对的 |
| 777 | It's just a statement of fact. | 唯说实相. |
| 778 | Absolutely, you may well be right. | 当然,你很可能是对的。 |
| 779 | But I'm, I'm really hung up on how we get | 但我,我真的很挂断 我们如何得到 |
| 780 | from the current polarized, angry, fearful | 从目前的两极分化,愤怒,恐惧 |
| 781 | policy we have now to this nirvana. | 我们现在对这个荷兰人有政策 |
| 782 | And I think you could, you can paint a picture | 我想你可以,你可以画一幅画 |
| 783 | where people are so scared by this. | 在那里人们是如此害怕。 |
| 784 | You know, they essentially try to stop it. | 你知道,他们基本上试图阻止它。 |
| 785 | Maybe they can't, but you get nationalized. | 也许他们不能, 但你被国有化。 |
| 786 | There's a kind of, you know, far left government. | 有种,你知道, 远左政府。 |
| 787 | There's exorbitant tax increases. | 高额加税。 |
| 788 | The kind of economy crumbles because people are so worried | 经济崩溃是因为人们担心 |
| 789 | about a future, which does sound quite scary, | 关于未来, 这听起来相当可怕, |
| 790 | as you describe it. | 就像你描述的那样 |
| 791 | So how do you, how do you handle the politics now? | 那么,你如何,你如何处理 现在的政治? |
| 792 | It's exhilarating and terrifying. | 令人兴奋和恐怖。 |
| 793 | But if you were, yeah, exactly, exactly. | 但如果你,是的,准确的,准确的。 |
| 794 | If you ask me on any given day, | 如果你在任何一天问我, |
| 795 | in fact, even intraday, I've gone from exhilaration | 其实,即使一天之内,我已经摆脱了兴奋 |
| 796 | to terror regarding AI. | 关于大赦国际的恐怖行动 |
| 797 | So I want to be clear. | 所以我想说清楚 |
| 798 | I'm not like, I'm not sort of some, you know, | 我不是那样的,我不是那种,你知道, |
| 799 | I'm not trying to be sort of candied here | 我不是想在这里被吊死 |
| 800 | and just be some, oh, everything's wonderful. | 成为一些,哦,一切都很好。 |
| 801 | Some pan-Glossian view of the world | 一些泛格罗斯世界观 |
| 802 | where everything's, you know, gonna be great. | 一切都会很棒的 |
| 803 | No, no, no risk. | 不,不,不冒险。 |
| 804 | I'm saying there is some risk. | 我是说有危险 |
| 805 | I think we agree on that. | 我认为我们同意这一点。 |
| 806 | I guess I'm trying to be more sort of, you know, | 我想我是想成为 更多的类型,你知道, |
| 807 | small, boring, practical and think about | 小的,无聊的, 实际的和思考 |
| 808 | what can be done now to limit those risks. | 现在可以做些什么来限制这些风险。 |
| 809 | And you gave a very strong argument | 你却说得非常有力 |
| 810 | for what you and your fellow model makers could do. | 为了你和你的模特儿们能做的 |
| 811 | I think it probably would be good for us to coordinate | 我觉得我们最好能协调一下 |
| 812 | and just highlight issues that we see in each other's models | 只要突出我们彼此模式中的问题 |
| 813 | to mitigate downside risk. | 减少下滑风险。 |
| 814 | Should the government, | 如果政府, |
| 815 | should you be paying more tax | 还要多交税吗? |
| 816 | to fund more transfer programs? | 资助更多的转移方案? |
| 817 | Well, first of all, I do pay a lot of tax. | 首先,我交了很多税 |
| 818 | So in fact, I set a record for the most amount of taxes | 所以实际上,我创造了一个记录 最多税额 |
| 819 | ever paid by a human. | 曾经由人类支付。 |
| 820 | That's also because you're the world's richest man. | 也因为你是世界上最有钱的人 |
| 821 | Well, even before that. | 嗯,甚至在此之前。 |
| 822 | So my guess is that I will pay many trillions in tax | 所以我猜我会付很多万亿的税 |
| 823 | and I'm fine with that. | 我无所谓 |
| 824 | So yeah, that's just the way it's gonna be. | 所以,对,这只是它的方式。 |
| 825 | But I don't think, in a future where money is relevant, | 但我不认为,在将来 与金钱有关, |
| 826 | I think taxation also becomes somewhat irrelevant. | 我认为税收也变得有点无关紧要。 |
| 827 | And what about giving people a sense | 给别人一种感觉怎么样? |
| 828 | that they have a share in the upside? | 他们有一部分是有利的吗? |
| 829 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 830 | 在SpaceX和Tesla给人们股权 | |
| 831 | And there's a lot of talk about this right now. | 而今此经多说. |
| 832 | Well, one of the reasons I took SpaceX public | 我公开SpaceX的原因之一 |
| 833 | is so that the public could participate in, | 使公众能够参与, |
| 834 | because they could own a piece of SpaceX. | 因为他们可以拥有一块SpaceX。 |
| 835 | Whereas as a private company, | 而作为一个私营公司, |
| 836 | we're very limited in the number of shareholders | 股东人数有限 |
| 837 | we're allowed to have before going public. | 我们被允许在公开之前有。 |
| 838 | So as a public company, | 所以作为一个公共公司, |
| 839 | we can have millions of shareholders. | 我们可以有数百万股东。 |
| 840 | As a private company, | 作为一个私人公司, |
| 841 | we're limited to just a few thousand shareholders. | 我们只限几千名股东 |
| 842 | Do you think there should be distribution of shares? | 你觉得应该分配股票吗? |
| 843 | The Alaska Wealth Fund is there for... | 阿拉斯加财富基金是用来... |
| 844 | Could you imagine a world, | 你能想象一个世界, |
| 845 | and some people talk about the Trump accounts | 有些人谈论川普的账户 |
| 846 | being a kind of vehicle for this, | 作为这种工具, |
| 847 | that a share of your equity goes to ordinary Americans? | 你股本的一部分是给普通美国人的? |
| 848 | Right. | 对 |
| 849 | Well, in the taxes that I pay, | 我付的税中 |
| 850 | so for my stock options, | 所以我的股票期权, |
| 851 | I pay 40% income tax on a national basis. | 我缴纳40%的所得税 |
| 852 | And then because I spend, | 然后因为我花了, |
| 853 | about 30% of my time in California, | 大约我30%的时间在加利福尼亚州, |
| 854 | thereabouts, I pay another sort of a, | 差不多吧,我付了另一种... |
| 855 | roughly a third of the California state taxes, | 大约加州州税的三分之一 |
| 856 | which is, are now around 15%. | 也就是,现在大约是15%。 |
| 857 | So I pay about 45% in taxes, | 所以我付了45%的税 |
| 858 | just so people know this, you know, I don't know. | 只是让人们知道这一点,你知道,我不知道。 |
| 859 | It's quite, so roughly half. | 这是相当的,所以大约一半。 |
| 860 | Then when I die, | 然后当我死了, |
| 861 | there'll be another sort of 45%, | 会有另一种 45%, |
| 862 | roughly half that will be taxed. | 大约一半将被征税。 |
| 863 | So at the end of the day, | 所以,在一天结束时, |
| 864 | probably I'll have a quarter of whatever I have. | 可能我会得到我拥有的四分之一。 |
| 865 | But the, | 不过... |
| 866 | I think the only thing it gives me | 我认为它给我的唯一的东西 |
| 867 | is that for some period of time, | 在一段时间内, |
| 868 | I would have control of the direction of the companies. | 我会控制公司的方向 |
| 869 | So it's not, | 所以,这不是, |
| 870 | that's pretty much all it gets me. | 这几乎是它得到的我。 |
| 871 | And so I guess the AI is so smart that it's in charge. | 所以我猜人工智能很聪明,它负责。 |
| 872 | And at that point, controlling companies | 此时,控制公司 |
| 873 | won't really matter. | 无所谓 |
| 874 | Well, let's talk about that, | 好吧,让我们谈谈这个, |
| 875 | because I think one of the other things | 因为我认为其他的事情之一 |
| 876 | that worries people about the direction we're heading in, | 人们担心 我们的方向, |
| 877 | and I'm gonna caricature it, | 我要讽刺它, |
| 878 | but people think that the direction of the world | 但人们认为世界的方向 |
| 879 | is being shaped by a very small number | 由极少数人塑造 |
| 880 | of incredibly powerful people. | 拥有强大力量的人 |
| 881 | And you are right at the top of that list. | 而你正处在名单的首位 |
| 882 | What else is, | 还有什么是, |
| 883 | but is this different from the past? | 这和过去不同吗? |
| 884 | I agree with you. | 我同意你的观点。 |
| 885 | I think it was like that. | 我想是这样的 |
| 886 | When wasn't that the case? | 什么时候不是的? |
| 887 | It was ever thus. | 它曾经是这样。 |
| 888 | It was ever thus, exactly. | 正是这样 |
| 889 | It is a, as you've described very vividly, | 正如你生动地描述的那样, |
| 890 | it's an incredibly rapid change. | 这是一个惊人的快速变化。 |
| 891 | And so let's start with control of your company, | 让我们从控制你的公司开始 |
| 892 | which you definitely have now. | 你现在绝对有了 |
| 893 | Off of the IPO, you basically, | 从IPO的,你基本上, |
| 894 | you have 80% odd of voting shares. | 您拥有80%的选票。 |
| 895 | And as I understand it, | 据我所知, |
| 896 | you can only be removed by a vote of shares, | 只能通过股票表决才能删除 |
| 897 | which you yourself control. | 由你来控制 |
| 898 | So tell me if I'm wrong, | 所以,告诉我 如果我错了, |
| 899 | but I think you can go crazy. | 但我觉得你可能会发疯 |
| 900 | Well, there's a few companies in that bucket. | 那桶里有几个公司 |
| 901 | By the way, the AI companies, | 顺便说一下,AI公司, |
| 902 | Google's in that bucket off of that | 谷歌就在那个桶里 |
| 903 | is controlled by Larry and Sergey. | 由拉里和谢尔盖控制 |
| 904 | But I think yours is more extreme. | 但我觉得你的更极端 |
| 905 | The inability to- | 无法... |
| 906 | No, it's the same level. | 不,这是相同的水平。 |
| 907 | They have voting control of that company. | 他们控制着那家公司的投票 |
| 908 | Mark Zuckerberg has control of a Meta. | 马克·扎克伯格控制了一个Meta. |
| 909 | And Mark is trying very hard on the AI front, | 马克在AI战线上很努力 |
| 910 | and I think probably will also have a leading AI. | 我想也许也会有一个领先的AI。 |
| 911 | He's made, I think he released one last week. | 我想他上周放了一个 |
| 912 | So I think he'll be one of the, | 所以我觉得他会是... |
| 913 | Meta will be one of the AI companies. | Meta将成为AI公司之一. |
| 914 | But is it sensible for one person | 但一个人有道理吗? |
| 915 | to have so much control over a company? | 这么能控制公司? |
| 916 | Well, I really just need to make sure | 好吧,我真的需要确保 |
| 917 | that I can focus on long-term. | 我可以专注于长期。 |
| 918 | By long-term, I just mean in the five to 10 years. | 从长远来看,我是指五到十年 |
| 919 | So one of the challenges with being a public company | 所以做一家公营公司的挑战之一 |
| 920 | is that, is other sort of the pressure | 这是另一种压力 |
| 921 | to have great results every single quarter. | 每个季度都会有大结果 |
| 922 | And to not really invest in things | 而不真正投资的东西 |
| 923 | that may only pay off in five to 10 years. | 五到十年内才有回报 |
| 924 | 以SpaceX为例 | |
| 925 | I want to extend consciousness beyond Earth | 我想把意识扩展到地球以外 |
| 926 | and have a growing civilization on the moon, | 在月亮上,有不断增长的文明, |
| 927 | Mars, and elsewhere in the solar system. | 火星和太阳系的其他地方 |
| 928 | The return, I think ultimately this would have | 归来,我想最终会 |
| 929 | a very high return on investment, | 投资回报很高, |
| 930 | but in the short term, we'll be spending all this money | 但短期内,我们会花掉所有的钱 |
| 931 | on a moon base, and a Mars base, | 在月球基地和火星基地, |
| 932 | and then people are like, | 然后人们就喜欢, |
| 933 | I'm gonna get all this pressure for like, | 我会得到这一切的压力 喜欢, |
| 934 | well, you missed your earnings this quarter | 好吧,你错过了你这个季度的收入 |
| 935 | because you spent too much on Mars. | 因为你在火星上花了太多钱 |
| 936 | I'm like, yes. | 我很喜欢,是的。 |
| 937 | By the way, that was in the S1 prospectus, | 顺便说一下,那是在S1计划, |
| 938 | and it's literally listed as a thing we will do. | 它被列作我们将要做的事情。 |
| 939 | But they still get grumpy about these things, you know? | 但是他们对这些事情仍然很生气,你知道吗? |
| 940 | Is it like, well, you had whatever, | 感觉像,嗯,你有什么, |
| 941 | you said your gross margin would be this, | 你说你的总比值是这个 |
| 942 | and it's actually slightly worse, | 更糟糕一点 |
| 943 | and now we're gonna punish you, | 现在我们要惩罚你 |
| 944 | and the short-sellers all descend upon you, | 廉价的销售者,确已降临你们, |
| 945 | and you get a lot of pressure in the public market. | 在公共市场你得到很多压力。 |
| 946 | Yeah, so I just need some way to sort of say like, | 是啊,所以我只是需要一些方法 可以说, |
| 947 | listen, guys, we're gonna focus on five to 10-year | 听着,伙计们,我们要集中精力 五到十年 |
| 948 | or longer time-rising investments. | 或长期投资。 |
| 949 | This will depress our short-term earnings, | 这将压抑我们的短期收入, |
| 950 | but I mean, if you take a long-term view, | 但是如果你从长远来看 |
| 951 | and there are investors, | 有投资者, |
| 952 | we have many investors that do take a long-term view. | 我们有许多投资人 都从长远的角度出发 |
| 953 | In fact, I'm a big fan of the retail investors. | 事实上,我是零售投资者的忠实粉丝. |
| 954 | In fact, I find our retail investors on balance have the, | 事实上,我发现我们的零售投资者 平衡的, |
| 955 | they're very insightful and have very long-term views. | 他们很有洞察力,有长远的观点。 |
| 956 | But if part of this comes, | 但是,如果其中的一部分来了, |
| 957 | what's the incentive structure? | 奖励结构是什么? |
| 958 | For portfolio managers, it's sort of understandable | 对于投资组合经理来说,这是可以理解的 |
| 959 | why they put so much pressure on quarterly earnings | 为什么他们给季度收入带来如此大的压力 |
| 960 | because their compensation and whether they get promoted | 因为他们的补偿和他们是否得到晋升 |
| 961 | or not is dependent on how their portfolio does, | 或者不取决于他们的投资组合如何运作, |
| 962 | and they only have a few years to make these decisions, | 他们只有几年的时间做这些决定, |
| 963 | and then they're evaluated based on those decisions | 然后根据这些决定来评估 |
| 964 | over the course of sometimes only a year or less. | 有时只有一年或不到一年。 |
| 965 | And so since they're under pressure | 既然他们有压力 |
| 966 | to have immediate returns, | 立即返回, |
| 967 | they then put companies under pressure | 然后他们把公司置于压力之下 |
| 968 | to have immediate returns. | 立即回来 |
| 969 | So once you understand the incentive structure, | 所以一旦你明白激励结构 |
| 970 | the behavior naturally follows. | 行为自然而然。 |
| 971 | What about the key man risk? | 那关键人物的风险呢? |
| 972 | I mean, what happens, you know, | 我的意思是,会发生什么,你知道, |
| 973 | I haven't forgotten, but what happens | 我没有忘记,但会发生什么 |
| 974 | if you get run over by the proverbial bust tomorrow? | 如果你明天被传说中的劫案碾死? |
| 975 | You know, it is, you have total control over these companies. | 你知道,这是,你有 完全控制这些公司。 |
| 976 | Do you have a plan for how they would progress without you? | 你有没有计划 没有你他们怎么发展? |
| 977 | I think they would actually do very well for several years. | 我认为他们几年来会做得非常好。 |
| 978 | And you know, there's a clear roadmap for, | 你知道,有一个明确的路线图, |
| 979 | or space map, I should say, for SpaceX. | 或空间地图,我应该说, 对于SpaceX。 |
| 980 | And there's a roadmap, actually for Tesla, literally. | 还有一张地图,其实是特斯拉的。 |
| 981 | So I think there's, you know, | 所以我认为,你知道, |
| 982 | if you look at Apple after Steve Jobs, | 如果你在史蒂夫·乔布斯之后看苹果 |
| 983 | Steve Jobs had, you know, he had a strategic vision | 史蒂夫·乔布斯有战略眼光 |
| 984 | and a bunch of products that he had ideas for, | 和他有想法的一堆产品, |
| 985 | and Apple has done very well. | 苹果公司做得非常好 |
| 986 | But when you don't have a creative genius like Steve Jobs, | 但是当你没有像史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的创造天才时 |
| 987 | you don't, what Apple's missing | 你没有,苹果不见了什么 |
| 988 | are the incredible breakthrough products. | 是惊人的突破产品。 |
| 989 | So they make amazing phones, you know, great computers, | 所以他们制造惊人的手机, 你知道,伟大的计算机, |
| 990 | but Apple hasn't come up with a sort of Steve Jobs, | 但苹果还没有想到 某种史蒂夫乔布斯, |
| 991 | Steve Jobs level breakthrough product. | 史蒂夫·乔布斯级突破产品. |
| 992 | So by analogy, that's what you bring | 所以,通过类比, 这就是你带来 |
| 993 | to all of your companies. | 致你们所有公司 |
| 994 | You mentioned Mars, you know, most people think of you | 你提到火星,你知道,大多数人 想你 |
| 995 | as the man who wants to, you know, create a colony on Mars. | 作为想要在火星上建立一个殖民地的人 |
| 996 | So we have multi-planetary civilization. | 所以我们有多行星文明。 |
| 997 | I've been saying that for such a long time. | 我这么说很久了 |
| 998 | You have, but now you seem more focused on AI | 你有,但现在你似乎更专注于AI |
| 999 | and what AI will do in the next 10 years. | 以及未来十年AI会做什么 |
| 1000 | And you sound much more excited about using the moon | 你听起来更兴奋 利用月亮 |
| 1001 | as a base from which to, you know, | 作为基础 从,你知道, |
| 1002 | pop out orbital AI satellites. | 发射轨道AI卫星。 |
| 1003 | Have you shifted your attention away from Mars | 你有没有转移你的注意力 从火星 |
| 1004 | or are you as interested in colonizing Mars | 或者你对殖民火星感兴趣 |
| 1005 | as you ever were? | 你曾经是? |
| 1006 | I'm interested in the set of actions | 我对一系列行动感兴趣 |
| 1007 | that propagate consciousness into the future | 将意识传播到未来 |
| 1008 | to the maximum degree possible. | 尽最大可能。 |
| 1009 | So that the future light cone of consciousness | 未来意识的光锥 |
| 1010 | is as big as we could, you know, | 是我们最大的,你知道, |
| 1011 | like there's an exciting future | 就像有一个激动人心的未来 |
| 1012 | where there's a space-faring civilization | 在那里有一个航天文明 |
| 1013 | out there among the stars. | 在那里的星星之间。 |
| 1014 | And the great things that are envisioned | 和伟大的事物 设想 |
| 1015 | 在非dystopian 科幻书籍和电影 | |
| 1016 | become real one day. | 有一天会变得真实 |
| 1017 | I sort of want the Star Trek, you know, Star Wars future. | 我有点想要星际迷航,你知道的,星球大战的未来。 |
| 1018 | The Star Wars was the first movie | "星球大战"是第一部电影 |
| 1019 | I ever saw in a theater, by the way. | 顺便说一句,我在剧院见过 |
| 1020 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 1021 | Maybe it had a profound effect on me, I suppose. | 可能对我产生了深远的影响 |
| 1022 | So I remember I was, it blew my mind, honestly. | 所以,我记得我是, 它打破了我的心,说实话。 |
| 1023 | I think I was six years old. | 我想我是六岁。 |
| 1024 | And I was like, this is the greatest thing I've ever seen. | 我当时想,这是我见过的最伟大的事情。 |
| 1025 | Has your life been about making that happen? | 你的生活是为了实现这一点吗? |
| 1026 | Yeah, I mean, I didn't think it would be, | 是啊,我的意思是,我没想到会是, |
| 1027 | but when I was young, but my life feels somewhat surreal. | 但当我年轻的时候, 但我的生活感觉有些超现实。 |
| 1028 | I can't believe these things are actually happening, you know. | 我不敢相信这些事情真的发生了 |
| 1029 | I think the world feels somewhat surreal. | 我觉得世界有点超现实 |
| 1030 | It makes me believe in simulation theory, | 让我相信模拟理论 |
| 1031 | where it's like, well, this, | 这就像... |
| 1032 | like the things I'm doing are so preposterous | 就像我做的事太荒谬了 |
| 1033 | that it's hard to believe they're real. | 很难相信它们是真的 |
| 1034 | I mean, we've got Starship, | 我的意思是,我们得到了星舰, |
| 1035 | which is the largest, most powerful flying object ever made. | 这是有史以来最大的 最强大的飞行器 |
| 1036 | And we intend to launch that more than once per hour. | 我们打算每小时发射一次以上。 |
| 1037 | I know, I read that. | 我知道 我读过 |
| 1038 | And we can, you know, | 我们可以,你知道, |
| 1039 | people can quibble about how quickly it happens, | 人们可以争吵 如何迅速发生, |
| 1040 | but I think based on your track record, | 但我认为根据你的记录 |
| 1041 | we should assume it will happen at some point. | 我们应该假设它会在某个时候发生 |
| 1042 | It will happen. | 它会发生的。 |
| 1043 | I'm just sort of struck that when I, | 我只是有点打击 当我, |
| 1044 | I am as blown away by this world as you are, | 我和你一样被这个世界所吹走 |
| 1045 | and I watch it from a much more naive level, | 我从更天真的角度看 |
| 1046 | but for me, the whole evolution of AI | 但对我来说,整个进化的AI |
| 1047 | and the capabilities of these models | 以及这些模型的能力 |
| 1048 | is in and of itself so mind blowing. | 它本身是如此的心灵吹。 |
| 1049 | It's pretty much happening as I thought it would. | 事情发生得跟我想象的差不多 |
| 1050 | Is it? | 是吗? |
| 1051 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1052 | Oh, that's interesting. | 哦,这很有趣。 |
| 1053 | And not just me, many people predicted this. | 不只是我,很多人都预见到这一点。 |
| 1054 | I think Ray Kurzweil's predictions | 我认为雷·库兹韦尔的预测 |
| 1055 | have been remarkably accurate. | 已经非常准确。 |
| 1056 | Yeah, the singularity approaching. | 是啊,奇异性接近。 |
| 1057 | Let's go back more immediately to the here and now. | 我们马上回到这里 |
| 1058 | We've talked about concentration of control | 我们讨论过集中控制 |
| 1059 | in your companies. | 在你们公司。 |
| 1060 | You've made a very good case for why you should have it. | 你已经做了一个很好的理由 为什么你应该拥有它。 |
| 1061 | You also have, through Starlink, | 你也通过星际迷航 |
| 1062 | incredible geopolitical power. | 不可思议的地缘政治力量。 |
| 1063 | I mean, I'm one of your customers. | 我的意思是,我是你的客户之一。 |
| 1064 | Excellent product. | 不错的产品。 |
| 1065 | But without them, the Ukrainians would have been | 但是,没有他们,乌克兰人本来是 |
| 1066 | in serious, serious trouble. | 遇到严重的麻烦 |
| 1067 | And when you... | 当你... |
| 1068 | Yes, the Ukrainian government has publicly thanked Starlink | 是的,乌克兰政府公开感谢Starlink |
| 1069 | many times for being instrumental in defending Ukraine. | 许多次,因为对保卫乌克兰有帮助。 |
| 1070 | And you recently decided to prevent the Russians | 你最近决定阻止俄国人 |
| 1071 | in the occupied territories from having access to Starlink. | 无法进入星际系 |
| 1072 | Well, no, we were never at any point | 嗯,不,我们从来没有在任何时间 |
| 1073 | selling Starlink to Russians. | 卖星林克给俄国人 |
| 1074 | But they were grabbing it, right? | 但他们抓住它,对不对? |
| 1075 | They were using it, and you've now stopped them | 他们用它,你现在阻止了他们 |
| 1076 | from doing that. | 从做到这一点。 |
| 1077 | Well, they essentially got Starlink units | 嗯,他们基本上有 星际链接单元 |
| 1078 | that they ordered through Ukraine | 他们通过乌克兰订购 |
| 1079 | and then smuggled them into Eastern Ukraine | 然后把他们偷运到乌克兰东部 |
| 1080 | where the Russians are. | 俄国人在哪? |
| 1081 | And were then using them, in some cases, for attacks. | 然后,在某些情况下,利用它们进行攻击。 |
| 1082 | Now, in order to address this, | 为了解决这个问题, |
| 1083 | what we worked with the Ukrainian government | 我们与乌克兰政府的合作 |
| 1084 | to create a whitelist of approved Starlink terminals. | 创建一个经批准的Starlink终端的白名单。 |
| 1085 | Now, this has some downsides, | 现在,这有一些缺点, |
| 1086 | because a whole bunch of people | 因为一群人 |
| 1087 | who were just innocent users of Starlink | 他们只是Starlink的无辜用户 |
| 1088 | and just trying to access the internet for work | 只是想上网工作 |
| 1089 | or for education now don't have Starlink. | 或者为了教育,现在没有Starlink。 |
| 1090 | These are geopolitical decisions of consequence. | 这些是具有后果的地缘政治决定。 |
| 1091 | How do you feel about having that power? | 你对拥有这种力量有什么感觉? |
| 1092 | You could determine the outcome of wars. | 你可以决定战争的结果 |
| 1093 | How does that feel? | 感觉怎么样? |
| 1094 | And is it right that you should have that power? | 你是否应该拥有这种力量? |
| 1095 | Well, I'm not sure we're determining | 我不确定我们是不是在决定 |
| 1096 | the ultimate outcome of the state of the war in Ukraine. | 乌克兰战争状态的最终结果。 |
| 1097 | I do hope that there's some sort of peace agreement | 我希望有某种和平协议 |
| 1098 | reached soon, because for two or three years now, | 很快,因为两三年来, |
| 1099 | the border has barely moved, | 边境几乎没有移动, |
| 1100 | and every day there are lots of people dying | 每天都有许多人死去 |
| 1101 | at the front line. | 在前线。 |
| 1102 | And I think there's a lot of wishful thinking here | 我觉得这里有很多愿望 |
| 1103 | of people saying, well, Russia should completely | 说俄罗斯应该完全 |
| 1104 | withdraw, et cetera. | 退出等等。 |
| 1105 | But this is not realistic. | 但这不现实。 |
| 1106 | I really think there needs to be some, | 我真的认为需要一些, |
| 1107 | you know, a peace that is, | 你知道,一个和平是, |
| 1108 | you know, we have to be pragmatic about this. | 要讲求实际 |
| 1109 | What I think would be terrible | 我觉得会很糟的 |
| 1110 | is if there's another three years | 如果还有三年的话 |
| 1111 | of people dying senselessly at the front lines. | 在前线毫无意义地死去的人 |
| 1112 | And you have to say, well, you know, | 你必须说,嗯,你知道, |
| 1113 | how do you explain to the children of the men | 你怎么向男人的孩子解释? |
| 1114 | that are dying at the front lines? | 死在前线? |
| 1115 | On the Russian side too, by the way, | 顺便说一句,在俄罗斯方面 |
| 1116 | they're being conscripted and sent there. | 他们被征召到那里 |
| 1117 | I am quite offended by sort of fancy diplomats | 那种高贵的外交官让我很生气 |
| 1118 | who have seven course dinners in luxurious places | 他们在豪华的地方吃七顿菜 |
| 1119 | while people are dying at the front lines, | 当人们在前线死去的时候, |
| 1120 | and who pontificate about how Russia should withdraw, | 谁知道俄国应该如何撤退, |
| 1121 | but Russia's not going to withdraw. | 但俄国不会撤退 |
| 1122 | So there really needs to be an accepted peace | 所以,真的需要有一个被接受的和平 |
| 1123 | along those lines. | 沿着这些路线。 |
| 1124 | And do you think it's your responsibility | 你认为这是你的责任 |
| 1125 | to play a role in tipping the scales | 在倾斜天平方面发挥作用 |
| 1126 | towards what you see as the right way to peace? | 以你们所见为和平的正路吗? |
| 1127 | I've been advocating peace for a long time. | 常主张安乐. |
| 1128 | You know, I posted a few years ago | 你知道,我几年前发的 |
| 1129 | that there really needs to be some concession here to Russia. | 这里真的需要俄罗斯的让步 |
| 1130 | This is not me being pro-Russia, I'm just being pragmatic. | 这不是我亲俄罗斯, 我只是务实。 |
| 1131 | Or people will die for years with nothing achieved. | 或有众生终年不成就. |
| 1132 | And that is exactly what happened. | 事情就是这样的 |
| 1133 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 1134 | I mean, the Ukrainians are doing pretty well right now | 我的意思是,乌克兰人现在做得很好 |
| 1135 | with their incredible drone capacity hitting inside Russia | 和他们不可思议的无人机能力 击中俄罗斯境内 |
| 1136 | and the kind of general consensus is | 一种普遍的共识是: |
| 1137 | that the balance of the war is shifting. | 战争的平衡正在改变 |
| 1138 | But my point is not so much about what the right- | 但我的重心并不在于什么是权利 |
| 1139 | Ukraine is not going to retake those territories. | 乌克兰不会重新占领这些领土。 |
| 1140 | It is not going to happen. | 它不会发生。 |
| 1141 | My interest is really on whether you think, | 我的兴趣在于你是否认为 |
| 1142 | given that you have through Starlink, | 如果你通过星际迷航 |
| 1143 | you have an incredible power, | 你有不可思议的力量, |
| 1144 | whether it's appropriate that you should wield it. | 你是否应该使用它。 |
| 1145 | That's quite rare that an individual actor has such power | 很少有演员这么厉害 |
| 1146 | by turning on and off a capability to shape conflict. | 通过打开和关闭一种形成冲突的能力。 |
| 1147 | Well, is this something you think I should do differently? | 你觉得我该改变主意吗? |
| 1148 | I mean, I think you were right to support Ukraine. | 我认为你支持乌克兰是对的 |
| 1149 | I think that, you know, it won't surprise you. | 我认为,你知道, 它不会令你惊讶。 |
| 1150 | I think that the Russian aggression was, you know, | 我认为俄罗斯的侵略是... |
| 1151 | for many, many reasons an appalling aggression. | 出于许多原因,这是令人发指的侵略。 |
| 1152 | And I think that that was an important thing that you did. | 我认为你做了一件很重要的事。 |
| 1153 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1154 | I mean, I did a very deep dive | 我的意思是,我做了一个非常深潜 |
| 1155 | into the background of that conflict | 冲突的背景 |
| 1156 | to understand exactly what was going on. | 来了解到底发生了什么 |
| 1157 | And I'm reminded of the old adage | 我想起了旧格言 |
| 1158 | that there are no angels in war. | 没有天使在战争中。 |
| 1159 | It's a similar tone, I think, about domestic politics, | 我认为,对于国内政治来说,这是一种类似的语气。 |
| 1160 | where you've played a big role domestically, politically here. | 你在国内扮演了重要的角色 在政治上 |
| 1161 | You spend a lot of money on Donald Trump's re-election. | 你在唐纳德·特朗普的连任上花了很多钱. |
| 1162 | After the election, you got very actively involved. | 选举后,你非常积极地参与。 |
| 1163 | You know, through Doge, you tried to cut a lot of spending, | 你知道,通过Doge, 你试图削减很多开支, |
| 1164 | reshape the government. | 重塑政府 |
| 1165 | How do you feel? | 你感觉怎么样? |
| 1166 | That wasn't hugely successful in the sense that, you know, | 从这个意义上说,那并不是很成功 |
| 1167 | there wasn't nearly as much spending cut as you tried. | 没有你想的那么多 |
| 1168 | How do you, as you look back on that, | 你怎么,当你回头看, |
| 1169 | do you regret getting so involved in politics? | 你后悔如此参与政治吗? |
| 1170 | Do you think it was a good thing to do? | 你觉得这是好事吗? |
| 1171 | I think I got a little too involved in politics, | 我想我有点太参与政治了 |
| 1172 | got carried away, frankly. | 坦白地说,我太激动了 |
| 1173 | So the, you know, the goal with this sort of Doge stuff | 所以,你知道,这个目标 与这种Doge的东西 |
| 1174 | was to try to do something about the deficit, | 试图做一些 关于赤字, |
| 1175 | which is massive, where the interest payments | 巨大的,其中支付利息 |
| 1176 | exceed the amount of money spent on the Department of War. | 超过用于战争部的资金数额。 |
| 1177 | Like, basically, if you add up all the money spent | 基本上,如果你把花的钱加起来 |
| 1178 | on what is now the Department of War | 战争部现在是什么 |
| 1179 | and intelligence in the US, | 和情报在美国, |
| 1180 | that is smaller than the interest payments on the debt. | 比债务利息还小 |
| 1181 | So we need to sort of take a close look at spending | 所以我们得仔细看看开支情况 |
| 1182 | and make sure that money is being spent in sensible ways | 并确保以明智的方式使用资金 |
| 1183 | and that it is not wasted or spent on fraudulent activities. | 不被浪费或用于欺诈活动。 |
| 1184 | And I got a lot of flack from this, obviously. | 很明显,我从这里面得到了很多好处。 |
| 1185 | But people don't understand just how simple it was | 但人们不明白 事情有多简单 |
| 1186 | for the Doge team to approve payments. | 让Doge团队批准付款 |
| 1187 | Literally, we just asked to have the contact information | 从字面上来说,我们只是要求 得到联系信息 |
| 1188 | of the recipient or some evidence that, say, | 接受者或某些证据,例如: |
| 1189 | money was going to its intended purpose. | 钱是去它的预期目的。 |
| 1190 | But over and over, we were told we need to wire money | 但一次又一次,我们被告知,我们需要汇钱 |
| 1191 | for some sort of important cause in Africa. | 在非洲的某种重要事业。 |
| 1192 | And we're like, okay, but the wiring instructions | 我们就像,好吧,但线条指示 |
| 1193 | to Deloitte and Touche in Washington, D.C., not to Africa. | 华盛顿的德勤公司,不是非洲 |
| 1194 | So we would like to send the money to Africa. | 因此,我们希望把资金送到非洲。 |
| 1195 | Can you please connect us with the recipients | 你能联系一下我们的收信人吗? |
| 1196 | so we can send them the money directly? | 这样我们就可以直接寄钱给他们? |
| 1197 | And then we get silence. | 然后我们得到沉默。 |
| 1198 | We don't need to re-litigate Doge. | 我们不需要重新起诉Doge。 |
| 1199 | I have no doubt that there's a lot of waste | 我毫不怀疑有很多浪费 |
| 1200 | in the US government. | 在美国政府。 |
| 1201 | I think probably- | 我想也许... |
| 1202 | Much worse than anyone could possibly imagine. | 比任何人都想象的还要糟 |
| 1203 | But the way, I think it is a fair criticism | 但是,我认为这是公平的批评 |
| 1204 | that the way you shut down a whole bunch of programs | 你关闭一整串程序的方式 |
| 1205 | is probably, in fact, certainly cause unnecessary suffering. | 事实上,这可能会造成不必要的痛苦。 |
| 1206 | I mean, no, no, no. | 不,不,不,没有。 |
| 1207 | You don't buy that at all? | 你根本不相信吗? |
| 1208 | It caused a lot of complaining. | 这引起了很多抱怨。 |
| 1209 | You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. | 你在看我采访伊隆·穆斯克 |
| 1210 | If you want to get early access to other interviews, | 如果你想早点接受其他采访 |
| 1211 | subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above. | 点击以上链接订阅《经济学家》。 |
| 1212 | Now back to the interview. | 现在回到采访。 |
| 1213 | You don't, so you don't buy the idea that anybody, | 你没有,所以你不会相信任何人的想法, |
| 1214 | and to put it really crudely and simply, | 简而言之, |
| 1215 | any kid in Africa died because of the suddenness with which- | 非洲任何一个孩子都因为突然... |
| 1216 | Zero. | 零点 |
| 1217 | I just don't think that's right. | 我只是不认为这是正确的。 |
| 1218 | I mean, I've had people reporting in Africa who- | 我的意思是,我曾经有人报道 在非洲谁 - |
| 1219 | How many NGOs are there that could step in? | 有多少非政府组织可以介入? |
| 1220 | Because bear in mind, it happened quickly, | 记住,事情发生得很快 |
| 1221 | and there are literally tens of thousands of NGOs. | 并且实际上有成千上万个非政府组织。 |
| 1222 | Not everyone functions as fast as you do. | 不是每个人都像你一样快 |
| 1223 | If funding is cut off for antiretrovirals overnight, | 如果在一夜之间切断抗反转录病毒药物的资金, |
| 1224 | and it just stops, then people will die | 就会有人死 |
| 1225 | when they don't have access to them. | 当他们无法接触他们时。 |
| 1226 | And it just- | 只不过... |
| 1227 | No, only if they cannot get funding for that. | 不,除非他们得不到资金。 |
| 1228 | But the Gates Foundation has $50 billion. | 但盖茨基金会有500亿美元. |
| 1229 | What about that? | 怎么样? |
| 1230 | What about any one of a number of organizations? | 有几个组织呢? |
| 1231 | What about the- | 那那个... |
| 1232 | Well, in lots of these countries, USAID- | 在这些国家中,美援署 |
| 1233 | Mackenzie, whatever her last name is, used to be Bezos, | 麦肯齐,无论她姓什么, 曾经是贝佐斯, |
| 1234 | gave $50 billion. | 给了500亿美元。 |
| 1235 | What about that? | 怎么样? |
| 1236 | But Elon, let's be practical. | 但伊隆,让我们务实一点 |
| 1237 | In many of these countries, USAID was the biggest funder. | 在这些国家中,美援署是最大的资助者。 |
| 1238 | But I don't want to have an argument about that. | 但我不想为此争论 |
| 1239 | USAID was a political organization. | 美援署是一个政治组织。 |
| 1240 | It may also have been that, | 砛琌 |
| 1241 | but it was the biggest funder of healthcare systems. | 但它是保健系统的最大资助者。 |
| 1242 | So I am very sure that there was- | 所以,我非常肯定,有 - |
| 1243 | Biggest funder of regime change. | 政权更迭的最大资助者. |
| 1244 | And there may well be benefits from having changed the system. | 改变制度很可能有好处。 |
| 1245 | Also, USAID funding was not stopped. | 此外,美援署的资金也没有停止。 |
| 1246 | It was moved to the State Department. | 后移至国务院. |
| 1247 | It was stopped. | 它被停了下来。 |
| 1248 | There were huge numbers of things shut down in Africa | 在非洲有很多东西被关闭 |
| 1249 | that were kind of health-related. | 这和健康有关 |
| 1250 | No, there were claims of this. | 不,有人说这个 |
| 1251 | These claims are false. | 这些说法是虚假的。 |
| 1252 | They're nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 1253 | And absolute nonsense. | 和绝对的废话。 |
| 1254 | But obviously, when funding is stopped | 但很明显,当资金停止 |
| 1255 | for fraudulent organizations or for something, | 为欺诈组织或某事, |
| 1256 | do you think they're going to say, | 你觉得他们会说, |
| 1257 | well, please keep funding the fraud? | 好吧,请继续资助欺诈? |
| 1258 | Or do you think they're going to come up with a sad story | 或者你认为他们会想出一个悲哀的故事 |
| 1259 | that sounds sympathetic in order to get the funding restored? | 听起来是同情的 为了恢复资金? |
| 1260 | Obviously, it will be the latter. | 显然,是后者。 |
| 1261 | And that's exactly what they did. | 他们就是这样做的。 |
| 1262 | But Zero died because of Doge. | 但零因多吉而死. |
| 1263 | Well, that's what I would take issue with. | 好吧,这就是我同意的。 |
| 1264 | I think you can, I actually have a lot of sympathy | 我想你可以,我其实有很多同情 |
| 1265 | for the change of the aid regime | 改革援助制度 |
| 1266 | that the US under the Trump administration has precipitated. | 美国在特朗普政府统治下 催生。 |
| 1267 | However, I think the pace and the suddenness | 然而,我认为速度和突然 |
| 1268 | with which it happened will almost certainly | 几乎是必然的, |
| 1269 | have caused unnecessary suffering and deaths. | 造成了不必要的痛苦和死亡。 |
| 1270 | And I think both of those can be true. | 我认为这两件事都是真的。 |
| 1271 | No, I think that's totally false. | 不,我认为这是完全错误的。 |
| 1272 | And obviously false because the amount of funding we're talking about is far less than | 很明显是虚假的 因为我们所说的资金数额远远低于 |
| 1273 | what can be done, than what can be supported by a private, by a foundation like the Gates | 比起私人 盖茨这样的基金会所能支持的 |
| 1274 | Foundation or Mackenzie Bezos' foundation. | 基金会或麦肯齐·贝佐斯的基金会. |
| 1275 | She's given away tens of billions of dollars. | 她捐了几百亿美金 |
| 1276 | The Gates Foundation has tens of billions of dollars. | 盖茨基金会拥有数百亿美元. |
| 1277 | They are capable of acting very quickly. | 他们能够迅速行动。 |
| 1278 | And if they didn't, I would say they're equally responsible. | 如果他们没有,我会说 他们同样有责任。 |
| 1279 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 1280 | OK. Obviously. | 摆 很明显 |
| 1281 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 1282 | Fair point. | 说得好 |
| 1283 | Zero people. | 零众生. |
| 1284 | I hear you loud and clear. | 我听到你大声而清晰。 |
| 1285 | Zero. | 零点 |
| 1286 | I hear you loud and clear. | 我听到你大声而清晰。 |
| 1287 | Domestically, you stepped away from Doge. | 在国内,你离开Doge。 |
| 1288 | It was hard to do what you were trying to do. | 做你想做的事很难 |
| 1289 | You've just explained it. | 你刚刚解释了 |
| 1290 | But this administration has gone in directions that I suspect you were not expecting two | 但是,这个政府已经走的方向, 我想你没有预期到两个 |
| 1291 | and a half years ago. | 和半年前一样 |
| 1292 | I don't agree with everything any administration does. | 我不同意任何行政部门所做的一切 |
| 1293 | Are you disappointed by this administration? | 你对政府失望了吗? |
| 1294 | No, I think this administration on balance is excellent. | 不,我认为这个行政 平衡是很好的。 |
| 1295 | No administration is perfect, but it's vastly better than the alternative. | 没有行政部门是完美的,但它比其他的要好得多. |
| 1296 | Can we talk about Europe, a place that you are very, very focused on? | 我们可以谈谈欧洲,一个你非常,非常关注的地方吗? |
| 1297 | I'm not that focused on Europe. | 我不是那么专注于欧洲。 |
| 1298 | I think judging by your posts, you're pretty concerned about Europe. | 从你的文章来看,你很关心欧洲 |
| 1299 | You support... | 你们支持... |
| 1300 | I mean, once in a while, I post something. | 我偶尔会贴些东西 |
| 1301 | Reasonably frequently, it's not once in a while, but because I'm genuinely interested in this. | 理性地经常出现,不是偶尔出现,而是因为我真的对这个感兴趣. |
| 1302 | As someone who lives in Europe, lives in London, you paint a picture. | 作为一个住在欧洲,住在伦敦的人, 你画了一幅画。 |
| 1303 | Well, first of all, you support not just the populist right, but the far right. | 首先,你不仅支持民粹主义者,而且支持极右派。 |
| 1304 | In fact, very fringe parties in some countries. | 事实上,一些国家的政党非常边缘。 |
| 1305 | No, I support the normal people. | 不,我支持正常人。 |
| 1306 | What do you call the far right? | 你说的远处对吗? |
| 1307 | Falsely. | 虚假的。 |
| 1308 | You think is the normal person. | 你以为是正常人吗? |
| 1309 | OK. | 摆 |
| 1310 | Yes. | 对 |
| 1311 | Literally, you could go back 10 or 15 years, and these policies were completely normal. | 从字面上讲,你可以追溯到10或15年, 这些政策是完全正常的。 |
| 1312 | In fact, one of the tricks that I think is funny is to take a speech from Obama and Hillary | 事实上,我认为滑稽的一个伎俩是 接受奥巴马和希拉里的讲话 |
| 1313 | and then go to someone who's sort of on the sort of what I call the lunatic left | 然后去找一个我称之为疯子的人 |
| 1314 | and say, what do you think of the speech by Trump? | 你觉得川普的演讲怎么样? |
| 1315 | I'm like, oh, wow, he's the worst person ever. | 我很喜欢,哦,哇, 他是有史以来最糟糕的人。 |
| 1316 | Actually, that was a speech by Obama. | 事实上,那是奥巴马的演讲。 |
| 1317 | Well, actually, that was a speech by Hillary. | 其实那是希拉里的讲话 |
| 1318 | I agree that the center of gravity in this country has shifted. | 我同意,这个国家的重心已经转移。 |
| 1319 | Certainly, the Democratic Party shifted to the left. | 当然,民主党转向了左翼。 |
| 1320 | But that's not what I'm talking about. | 然非此义. |
| 1321 | I'm talking about people like Rupert Lowe. | 我说的是鲁伯特·洛威这样的人 |
| 1322 | I'm talking about people. | 我指众生. |
| 1323 | It's actually just normal people. | 其实只是普通人 |
| 1324 | It's just normal people. | 这只是普通人。 |
| 1325 | And here are the principles. | 这是原则。 |
| 1326 | And tell me, which of these sound terrible, that we should have secure borders, | 告诉我,哪一个声音可怕, 我们应该有安全的边界, |
| 1327 | that we should have safe cities, that we should have sensible spending? | 我们应该有安全的城市, 我们应该有合理的开支? |
| 1328 | Which of those three are far right fringe? | 这3个中哪一个是极右边缘? |
| 1329 | And I would like to just admonish you and the media for the absurd characterization | 我只想提醒你和媒体 荒谬的描述 |
| 1330 | of the far right, which is false and misleading and nonsense. | 极右翼,是虚假的,是误导的,是荒谬的。 |
| 1331 | Please keep this part in. | 请保持这个部分。 |
| 1332 | We'll keep all of this in. | 我们会把这些都收起来的 |
| 1333 | But let me cut this part. | 但是,让我切这个部分。 |
| 1334 | Let me push back on that. | 让我推后。 |
| 1335 | Let me push back on that because you have nonsense. | 让我推后 因为你有废话。 |
| 1336 | Elon, you have, what is it, close to 250 million followers on X. | 伊隆,你在X上有将近2.5亿的追随者 |
| 1337 | You say things like, quote, civil war in Britain is inevitable. | 你说英国内战是不可避免的 |
| 1338 | Just a question of when. | 只是什么时候的问题 |
| 1339 | On the current trends, yes. | 目前的趋势是的。 |
| 1340 | When were you last in the UK? | 你上次来英国是什么时候? |
| 1341 | A few years ago. | 数年前. |
| 1342 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 1343 | So I live there. | 所以我就住在这里。 |
| 1344 | I'm there the whole time. | 我一直都在那边 |
| 1345 | That is nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 1346 | You live at a cloistered existence. | 你生活在一个隔绝的存在。 |
| 1347 | No, I don't, actually. | 不,我没有,实际上。 |
| 1348 | And the numbers also disprove what you say. | 数字也证明了你说的话 |
| 1349 | What numbers? | 什么号码? |
| 1350 | All the numbers about quote. | 所有关于引用的数字。 |
| 1351 | London is a much safer city than any city in the United States. | 伦敦比美国任何一个城市都安全得多. |
| 1352 | Violent crime in the UK is not where you think it is. | 在英国暴力犯罪不是你想的那样 |
| 1353 | In fact, it's coming down. | 实际上,它正在下降。 |
| 1354 | You have painted, and because you have so many followers, | 你画过画 因为你有很多追随者 |
| 1355 | so many Americans believe it, a kind of view | 这么多美国人相信它,一种观点 |
| 1356 | that Europe and the UK are kind of overrun | 欧洲和英国 有点过度 |
| 1357 | with terrifying Muslim immigrants. | 与可怕的穆斯林移民。 |
| 1358 | There's rape on every corner. | 每个角落都有强奸案 |
| 1359 | There's a sort of civilizational destruction. | 有一种文明的破坏. |
| 1360 | I haven't said any of those things. | 我什么都没说 |
| 1361 | It's just not what you say. | 这不是你说的 |
| 1362 | Civil war in Britain is inevitable. | 英国内战是不可避免的. |
| 1363 | And yes, if current trends continue, it is. | 是的,如果目前的趋势继续下去,那就是。 |
| 1364 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 1365 | Well, if you have a large and growing, | 好吧,如果你有一个大的和成长, |
| 1366 | rapidly growing group of people whose beliefs | 迅速增长的信仰群体 |
| 1367 | are antithetical to Western beliefs, | 与西方的信仰背道而驰 |
| 1368 | at some point, there will be a reckoning. | 某时,将有一个清算。 |
| 1369 | They will try to implement their views, | 他们将努力落实自己的观点, |
| 1370 | and those who oppose it will oppose it. | 反对者将反对它。 |
| 1371 | And that's what you call civil war. | 这就是所谓的内战。 |
| 1372 | And obviously, this is the trend. | 显然,这就是趋势。 |
| 1373 | And you absolutely do live in a cloistered existence. | 你绝对生活在一个隔绝的存在。 |
| 1374 | And if you'd like, we can go on a tour of Britain. | 如果你愿意 我们可以去英国旅游 |
| 1375 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 1376 | I'd be very happy to come on a tour of Britain. | 我很乐意来参观英国 |
| 1377 | And then you'll see for yourself. | 然后自见. |
| 1378 | You come see my country that I live in all the time, | 你来看我所生活的国家 |
| 1379 | and you haven't been to a few years ago. | 你几年前没去过 |
| 1380 | Yes, I've been there literally a hundred times. | 是的,我去过一百次 |
| 1381 | But when was the last time? | 但最后一次是什么时候? |
| 1382 | Literally a few years ago. | 从字面上讲,几年前。 |
| 1383 | You know why this exercises me? | 知道为什么吗? |
| 1384 | Because you have really shaped opinion about the UK. | 因为你对英国的看法已经定型了 |
| 1385 | And so many Americans I come across, | 我遇到这么多美国人 |
| 1386 | and I have conversations with, and I just had one | 和我有交谈, 我刚刚有一个 |
| 1387 | the other day, along the order of, oh, London's such | 那天,按照伦敦的顺序 |
| 1388 | a dangerous place. | 一个危险的地方。 |
| 1389 | How can you know? | 你怎么会知道? |
| 1390 | There are sort of grooming gangs everywhere. | 到处都有培养帮派 |
| 1391 | There's violence everywhere. | 到处都有暴力 |
| 1392 | This is a picture that people get from things that you post | 这张照片是人们从你张贴的东西中得到的 |
| 1393 | or that are posted on X. | 或张贴在X上。 |
| 1394 | And for example, you're posting for, what was it, | 比如说,你在张贴,是什么, |
| 1395 | 48 hours of Citizen Vigilante, that film, | 公民治安维持者48小时 那部电影 |
| 1396 | which, you know, paints a dystopian. | 你知道,画的是一个堤坝。 |
| 1397 | I've watched it. | 我看过了 |
| 1398 | It was not fun. | 这不好玩。 |
| 1399 | I watched it yesterday. | 我昨天看过的 |
| 1400 | It's not a very good movie. | 这不是一部很好的电影。 |
| 1401 | But it also paints a dystopian picture of Europe. | 但它也描绘了欧洲的阴暗景象。 |
| 1402 | And it glorifies vigilante violence. | 它颂扬私刑暴力。 |
| 1403 | It glorifies the murdering of a Muslim immigrant family. | 它颂扬谋杀穆斯林移民家庭的行为。 |
| 1404 | I honestly think that it is irresponsible for you | 我真心觉得这对你来说是不负责任的 |
| 1405 | to put that up on X. | 把这个放在X上。 |
| 1406 | I think that it's a movie, and it's worth watching. | 我认为这是一部电影,值得观看. |
| 1407 | You're clearly suggesting Europe is dystopian place, | 你明确暗示欧洲是废墟之地 |
| 1408 | and you... | 还有你... |
| 1409 | Yes, I mean, why aren't you more, doing more, | 是的,我的意思是,你为什么不更多,做更多, |
| 1410 | to fight censorship in Europe? | 在欧洲打击审查制度? |
| 1411 | Why aren't you? | 为什么不呢? |
| 1412 | You seem to be doing nothing to fight | 你好像什么都没做 |
| 1413 | censorship in Europe. | 欧洲的审查。 |
| 1414 | That's not true. | 这不是真的。 |
| 1415 | I think that there are issues with free speech in Europe. | 我认为欧洲存在言论自由的问题。 |
| 1416 | They put people in prison in the UK for social media posts. | 他们把人们关进英国的监狱, |
| 1417 | Do you think that's appropriate? | 你觉得合适吗? |
| 1418 | No, and we've written editorials against it. | 不,我们已经写了 社论反对它。 |
| 1419 | Okay, great. | 好吧,伟大的。 |
| 1420 | My point is that the UK... | 我想说的是英国... |
| 1421 | That's the sort of thing that I think is bad. | 那种事情我认为是坏的。 |
| 1422 | And I think if you, and I agree with you, | 我认为,如果你, 我同意你, |
| 1423 | but I don't think you have to glorify vigilante violence | 但我不认为你必须颂扬私刑 |
| 1424 | and kind of, you know, post the things that you are doing | 那种,你知道,张贴的东西 你正在做 |
| 1425 | and paint an entirely inaccurate picture of Europe | 并描绘出完全不准确的欧洲画面 |
| 1426 | that you do. | 你这样做。 |
| 1427 | I don't think it is. | 我不这么认为。 |
| 1428 | We should do a tour of the UK. | 我们应该去英国旅游 |
| 1429 | Yes, and one of Brussels too. | 是的,还有一个布鲁塞尔。 |
| 1430 | Because the UK has actually been very good | 因为英国确实很好 |
| 1431 | at integrating immigrants. | 在融合移民方面。 |
| 1432 | The UK is very effective at doing that. | 联合王国在这方面非常有效。 |
| 1433 | There are problems. | 有问题 |
| 1434 | I'm the first to admit that there are problems. | 我第一个承认有问题 |
| 1435 | Yes, there are major problems. | 是的,有重大的问题。 |
| 1436 | There are problems, but it is not, | 有问题,但是没有 |
| 1437 | it really is not what you are describing to | 这真的不是你所描述的 |
| 1438 | or suggesting to your 240 million followers it is. | 或建议你的2.4亿追随者。 |
| 1439 | I think it is. | 我认为是的。 |
| 1440 | And I think there's a problem. | 我觉得有麻烦了 |
| 1441 | No, I think I'm spot on. | 不,我想我在现场。 |
| 1442 | We'll have to... | 我们必须... |
| 1443 | And that's why you have freedom of speech, | 这就是为什么你有言论自由, |
| 1444 | or at least you don't anymore in the UK. | 至少你已经不在英国了 |
| 1445 | Freedom of speech allows people to say things that are wrong, | 言论自由允许人们说错话, |
| 1446 | but your point is not that you're not just saying, | 但你的意思不是说你不只是说 |
| 1447 | I have every right to say what I want. | 我有权利说我想说的话 |
| 1448 | You're saying, you know, I am right about Europe | 你是说,我对欧洲的看法是对的 |
| 1449 | and I really don't think you are. | 我真的不认为你是。 |
| 1450 | Well, I think I am. | 嗯,我觉得我是。 |
| 1451 | I think you will find that most people in Europe, | 我想你会发现 在欧洲大多数人, |
| 1452 | or many people in Europe don't think you're right about it, | 或者欧洲很多人认为你不对 |
| 1453 | but let's come to that. | 但让我们来谈谈。 |
| 1454 | Yes, because the media keeps ignoring reality. | 是的,因为媒体总是无视现实。 |
| 1455 | I don't think that's true either. | 我也不这么认为 |
| 1456 | I really... | и痷... |
| 1457 | And they're programmed by the TV and conventional media. | 而是由电视和传统媒体制作的节目. |
| 1458 | And why are you... | 你为什么... |
| 1459 | This is, I guess, even to me, | 我想,这对我来说也是 |
| 1460 | sort of the bigger picture question. | 有点大的问题 |
| 1461 | Why do you focus on this? | 何故专注于此. |
| 1462 | Why are you interested in it? | 你为什么感兴趣? |
| 1463 | Because on the one hand, we started this conversation | 因为一方面 我们开始了这次对话 |
| 1464 | and you described to me this extraordinarily | 你对我描述的很特别 |
| 1465 | transformative, amazing, | 变革,惊人, |
| 1466 | yeah, civilizational changing stuff | 是啊,文明改变的东西 |
| 1467 | that's happening in the next 10 years. | 接下来的10年里就发生了 |
| 1468 | And yet you're also, you know, | 但你还是,你知道, |
| 1469 | an ongoing participant in the worst kind of tribalism, | 持续参与最恶劣的部落主义, |
| 1470 | cesspit of social media. | 社交媒体的烂摊子。 |
| 1471 | How does that fit? | 这怎么合适? |
| 1472 | Are you, you know, they're two very different | 你,你知道,他们两个非常不同 |
| 1473 | views of the world. | 世界观。 |
| 1474 | Yeah, I don't think they're inconsistent. | 是的,我不认为它们不一致。 |
| 1475 | But why do you do the latter one, the tribalism? | 但你为什么要做后一种,部落主义? |
| 1476 | I mean, people say that you're a racist. | 人们说你是种族主义者 |
| 1477 | People say that you're, you know, | 人们说你,你知道, |
| 1478 | there's all kinds of things said about you, | 有各种各样的事情 说你, |
| 1479 | which I'm sure you would disagree with. | 我敢肯定,你会不同意。 |
| 1480 | But I just don't understand. | 但我还是不明白 |
| 1481 | What is the motivation for doing that? | 这样做的动机是什么? |
| 1482 | Are you fermenting... | 你发酵... |
| 1483 | My partner is, she's half Indian, | 我的搭档是,她是半印度人, |
| 1484 | and I have four children with her. | 我和她有四个孩子 |
| 1485 | You know, one of them was named after | 你知道,其中一个名字是 |
| 1486 | a famous Indian physicist. | 印度著名物理学家. |
| 1487 | So I would say I'm not racist. | 所以我会说我不是种族主义者。 |
| 1488 | And also, you know, if you look at the people | 还有,你知道,如果你看看人们 |
| 1489 | that are employed at my companies, | 那些在我的公司工作的人, |
| 1490 | you know, we have senior executives of all races. | 你知道,我们有高级主管 所有种族。 |
| 1491 | I don't think there's any racism there. | 我不认为那里有任何种族主义。 |
| 1492 | Are you anti-Muslim? | 你是反穆斯林的吗? |
| 1493 | I am, I'm against having, | 我,我反对有, |
| 1494 | if people are coming to a country | 如果人们来一个国家 |
| 1495 | with antithetical views, | 与反论观点, |
| 1496 | I am against that. | 我反对 |
| 1497 | I'm against, you know, I'm against rape and murder. | 我反对,你知道, 我反对强奸和谋杀。 |
| 1498 | I'm against the imposition of rules and laws | 我反对强加规则和法律 |
| 1499 | that are contrary to what we've come to accept in the West. | 这和我们在西方接受的相反 |
| 1500 | And I think it's a crying shame | 我觉得这太可惜了 |
| 1501 | that the sort of traditional media like you | 那种传统媒体喜欢你 |
| 1502 | don't recognize this. | 别认得这个 |
| 1503 | First of all, I think that you hugely exaggerate | 首先,我觉得你非常夸张 |
| 1504 | the challenges that Europe faces. | 欧洲面临的挑战。 |
| 1505 | Secondly, in areas, I completely agree with you. | 第二,在各个领域,我完全同意你的看法。 |
| 1506 | I think that, you know, the constraints | 我认为,你知道, 限制 |
| 1507 | on freedom of speech in the UK | 联合王国言论自由问题 |
| 1508 | in certain areas are problematic. | 在某些方面有问题。 |
| 1509 | What worries me is that the people you are supporting | 我最担心的是 你所支持的人 |
| 1510 | are really quite vile people in some areas. | 在某些地方是相当卑鄙的人。 |
| 1511 | Like some members of the AFD, Alice Weidel, | 像一些AFD的成员,爱丽丝·魏德尔, |
| 1512 | whom I've met, is a perfectly thoughtful person, | 我见过的人,是个非常周到的人, |
| 1513 | but in her party are some real neo-Nazis, | 但是在她的党里,有些真正的新纳粹分子, |
| 1514 | are some really, really awful people. | 这些人真的很可怕 |
| 1515 | And your blanket support of this kind of party | 还有你对这种派对的支持 |
| 1516 | with 240 million followers means that you have a power | 有2.4亿追随者 意味着你拥有力量 |
| 1517 | in Europe that I think, perhaps you don't realize | 在欧洲我想,也许你不知道 |
| 1518 | the scale of impact you have, but you can... | 影响的程度,但你可以... |
| 1519 | I hope I am having a big impact. | 我希望我有很大的影响。 |
| 1520 | But why? | 为什么? |
| 1521 | Why should you? | 为什么? |
| 1522 | Why should you be able to shape European politics? | 为何能塑造欧洲政治? |
| 1523 | You don't even live there. | 你甚至没有住在那里。 |
| 1524 | I think of it as sort of the West collectively. | 我认为这是西方的一种集体。 |
| 1525 | But do you see why this makes people think | 但你知道为什么这让人觉得 |
| 1526 | that this man who has all this power, | 这个男人,拥有这一切的力量, |
| 1527 | he's the world's richest man, | 他是世界上最富有的人 |
| 1528 | he thinks he has a right to influence our politics? | 他认为他有权影响我们的政治? |
| 1529 | It makes people, it's why, you know, | 它使人,这就是为什么,你知道, |
| 1530 | we started this conversation saying superlatives. | 我们开始谈话说"超人" |
| 1531 | It's why people loathe you. | 这就是为什么人们讨厌你。 |
| 1532 | I mean, some people do loathe you. | 有些人讨厌你 |
| 1533 | Yes, some people do. | 是的,有些人这样做。 |
| 1534 | But do you understand why? | 但你明白为什么吗? |
| 1535 | Do you think what you're doing is helpful | 你觉得你做的事有用吗? |
| 1536 | for Western democracy? | 为了西方民主? |
| 1537 | Maybe some people do loathe me. | 也许有些人讨厌我 |
| 1538 | And that's probably true. | 这可能是真的。 |
| 1539 | I don't care. | 我无所谓 |
| 1540 | But the fact that, as you pointed out, | 但事实上,正如你所指出, |
| 1541 | a quarter of a billion people follow me | 25亿人跟着我 |
| 1542 | is that I think a lot more people actually like me | 我想更多的人喜欢我 |
| 1543 | than don't. | 而不是没有。 |
| 1544 | And I think a lot more people hate you and the media | 我觉得更多人讨厌你和媒体 |
| 1545 | more than you realize. | 比你意识到的还要多 |
| 1546 | Do you realize the media is despised? | 你知道媒体被鄙视吗? |
| 1547 | Do you realize that journalists, | 你知道记者, |
| 1548 | the view of journalists is like, | 记者的观点是, |
| 1549 | it's like the favorable view of journalists is like 15%. | 记者喜欢的视线是15% |
| 1550 | Yeah, I do know that. | 是的,我知道这一点。 |
| 1551 | In the United States, that... | 在美国... |
| 1552 | So the shoe is on the other foot. | 所以鞋在另一只脚上 |
| 1553 | They hate you. | 他们恨你。 |
| 1554 | They hate you far more than they hate me. | 他们恨你远超过他们恨我。 |
| 1555 | I think there is certainly a loss of trust in journalism. | 我认为,对新闻工作无疑失去了信任。 |
| 1556 | I think, in part, there have been mistakes | 我想,部分地,有错误 |
| 1557 | by journalists and journalism. | 由记者和新闻业。 |
| 1558 | I totally acknowledge that. | 我完全承认这一点。 |
| 1559 | But I also think that the kind of polarized environment, | 但我也认为这种两极化的环境 |
| 1560 | particularly on social media, | 特别是社交媒体, |
| 1561 | fostered by the kinds of things you are pushing on X | 由你推动的X的种类所培养 |
| 1562 | actually helps this, makes it worse. | 实际帮助了这个, 使它更糟。 |
| 1563 | I don't think so. | 亦不见. |
| 1564 | I think you're the problem, the media. | 我认为你是问题所在,媒体。 |
| 1565 | And speaking of loathing, | 说到厌恶, |
| 1566 | you're loathe far more than I am. | 你比我还讨厌 |
| 1567 | And you don't seem to even realize that. | 而你似乎甚至没有意识到这一点。 |
| 1568 | I think very few people know who I am relative to you. | 我想很少有人知道我和你的关系 |
| 1569 | So I don't think I play in the same game. | 所以我不认为我在同一个游戏。 |
| 1570 | The media collectively. | 传媒集体. |
| 1571 | So, I mean, you're hated. | 所以,我的意思是,你被讨厌。 |
| 1572 | Do you even know that? | 你知道吗? |
| 1573 | You probably don't. | 你可能不会 |
| 1574 | I like to think that I'm aware of | 我喜欢认为,我知道 |
| 1575 | my own personal shortcomings and the economist's shortcomings | 我个人的缺点和经济学家的缺点 |
| 1576 | and our worldview shortcomings. | 以及世界观的缺陷 |
| 1577 | But what we stand for, as you know, | 但是,我们的立场,你知道, |
| 1578 | is liberal values, traditional, classical liberal values, | 是自由主义的价值观,传统,古典的自由主义价值观, |
| 1579 | where we worry about concentrations of power | 我们担心力量的集中 |
| 1580 | and we believe in the individual | 我们相信个人 |
| 1581 | and the dignity of the individual. | 个人尊严。 |
| 1582 | And individual freedom. | 还有个人自由 |
| 1583 | And I firmly believe that. | 我坚信这一点。 |
| 1584 | And I have long thought that you were a classical liberal. | 我早就认为你是一个古典自由主义者。 |
| 1585 | But when I read what you post, | 但当我读到你的文章时 |
| 1586 | classical liberal, J.S. | 古典自由主义者,J.S. |
| 1587 | Mill, | 米尔 |
| 1588 | limited government, individual freedom. | 限制政府,个人自由。 |
| 1589 | Yeah, I agree with that. | 是的,我同意这一点。 |
| 1590 | But when I read what you post on your feed, | 但当我读到你的留言时 |
| 1591 | I sometimes wonder whether you really do believe in that. | 我有时会怀疑 你真的相信这一点。 |
| 1592 | I literally said, look, I believe in safe cities, | 我从字面上说 我相信安全的城市 |
| 1593 | secure borders and sensible spending | 安全边界和合理支出 |
| 1594 | with respect to government. | 关于政府。 |
| 1595 | Does the US? | 美国呢? |
| 1596 | That doesn't make me right wing at all, in the least. | 至少这不代表我右翼 |
| 1597 | Does the US or do European countries score better on those? | 美国还是欧洲国家的得分更好? |
| 1598 | The US is better. | 美国更好 |
| 1599 | Safe cities, much more dangerous in the US than the UK. | 安全的城市,在美国比英国危险得多。 |
| 1600 | Sensible spending, bigger deficit here, | 明智的支出,更大的赤字在这里, |
| 1601 | out of control, you've managed, you've failed to reduce it. | 失控了,你已经成功,你没有减少。 |
| 1602 | Secure borders now under the Trump administration, | 特朗普政府负责边境安全 |
| 1603 | I agree with you, before not. | 我同意你的意见 之前不行 |
| 1604 | But on two out of three, unequivocally, | 但三分之二,毫不含糊地说, |
| 1605 | Europe is in a better place. | 欧洲处于一个更好的地方。 |
| 1606 | Yet you seem to paint a picture of Europe being a hellhole. | 但你似乎描绘了欧洲是一个地狱之洞 |
| 1607 | I don't think Europe's a hellhole. | 我不认为欧洲是一个地狱洞。 |
| 1608 | Okay, we can agree on something. | 好吧,我们可以达成一致的东西。 |
| 1609 | When did I ever say that? | 我什么时候这么说的? |
| 1610 | Well, the picture you paint of Europe on X is a hellhole. | 那么,你画的欧洲 在X是一个地狱洞。 |
| 1611 | You're making up things. | 你在编造东西。 |
| 1612 | No, I'm not. | 不,我没有。 |
| 1613 | You say civil war in Britain is inevitable. | 你说英国内战是不可避免的 |
| 1614 | And then you basically proselytize | 然后你基本上改宗 |
| 1615 | for this Citizen Vigilante film, | 这部公民义勇军电影 |
| 1616 | which really does paint Europe as a hellhole. | 它真的将欧洲描绘成地狱 |
| 1617 | It just starts with ominous music and it says Europe. | 它只是从不祥的音乐开始 它说欧洲。 |
| 1618 | Well, there was out of control, rape and murder. | 发生失控 强奸和谋杀 |
| 1619 | It's more dangerous in this country than it is in Europe. | 这个国家比欧洲更危险. |
| 1620 | Where there is danger in this country | 这个国家有危险的地方 |
| 1621 | is because we failed to incarcerate | 因为我们没有监禁 |
| 1622 | repeat violent offenders. | 惯犯暴力 |
| 1623 | And that's the classic sort of, | 这是典型的, |
| 1624 | Soros DA or judges that failed to incarcerate | Soros DA 或未能监禁的法官 |
| 1625 | repeat violent offenders. | 惯犯暴力 |
| 1626 | And if somebody gets arrested 50 times, | 如果有人被捕50次的话 |
| 1627 | literally for violent crimes, | 实实在在的暴力犯罪, |
| 1628 | and eventually they're going to kill somebody. | 最后他们会杀了人 |
| 1629 | So you either incarcerate them or people will die. | 所以你要么监禁他们 要么人死 |
| 1630 | I think the prevalence of guns | 我觉得枪很流行 |
| 1631 | has quite a lot to do with it too. | 与它有很大的关系。 |
| 1632 | I mean, this is a much more dangerous country. | 我的意思是,这是一个更加危险的国家。 |
| 1633 | Murder rates are much higher in large part | 大部分谋杀率要高得多 |
| 1634 | because there's so much, there are so many guns. | 因为有这么多,有这么多的枪。 |
| 1635 | Well, let me give you an interesting number. | 好吧,让我给你一个有趣的号码。 |
| 1636 | There are more people that die in Europe | 死在欧洲的人越来越多 |
| 1637 | from heat deaths than people that die | 从热死亡 而不是死亡的人 |
| 1638 | from gun deaths in America. | 在美国的枪战中 |
| 1639 | Why aren't you writing an article about air conditioning? | 你为什么不写一篇关于空调的文章? |
| 1640 | Well, we've done several on air conditioning | 嗯,我们已经做了几个空调 |
| 1641 | and we had on our cover last week, | 上周我们有我们的封面, |
| 1642 | a whole long piece about, you know, why. | 一大堆关于,你知道,为什么。 |
| 1643 | Pro air conditioning? | 专业空调? |
| 1644 | Yeah, we're very pro air conditioning. | 是的,我们非常专业的空调。 |
| 1645 | Okay, good, well good. | 好吧,不错,很好。 |
| 1646 | Very pro, you should read us, absolutely. | 非常专业,你应该读我们,绝对。 |
| 1647 | Credit where it's due, or credit's where it's due. | 名利应处或名利应处. |
| 1648 | I think you have a view of the economist | 我想你对经济学家的看法 |
| 1649 | that is not entirely accurate. | 这不是完全准确的。 |
| 1650 | So I will, you come look at England, | 我会的,你来看英国 |
| 1651 | start reading The Economist, and I will, you know, | 开始读《经济学家》, 我会,你知道, |
| 1652 | stand corrected on my criticism of you in this area. | 纠正我对你的批评 |
| 1653 | There are many parts of Britain and Europe | 英国和欧洲有很多地方 |
| 1654 | which are not safe. | 这不安全。 |
| 1655 | You can't just walk around. | 你不能随便走走 |
| 1656 | But there are far more in this country, far more. | 但是这个国家还有更多的,更多的。 |
| 1657 | No, I didn't think so. | 不,我不这么认为。 |
| 1658 | All right, let's go and get my fact checkers to check them. | 好吧,让我们去 让我的事实检查员检查他们。 |
| 1659 | Yeah, I don't think that's true. | 是啊,我不认为这是真的。 |
| 1660 | But let's move on from this, | 但让我们继续前进, |
| 1661 | because I think I've got a sense of why you're doing | 因为我觉得我知道为什么你这样做 |
| 1662 | what you're doing. | 汝作么生会. |
| 1663 | The point is, not that, the question is not, | 重点是,不是,问题不是, |
| 1664 | is America perfect? | 美国完美吗? |
| 1665 | The question is, does Europe have a serious | 问题是,欧洲有没有严重的 |
| 1666 | and growing problem? | 和日益严重的问题? |
| 1667 | The question is, which is more dangerous? | 问题是,哪个更危险? |
| 1668 | That's where we started this. | 我们从那里开始的 |
| 1669 | Europe has a serious and growing problem. | 欧洲问题严重且日益严重。 |
| 1670 | I'm not going to say that the United States | 我不会说美国 |
| 1671 | has no problems, of course it does. | 当然没有问题 |
| 1672 | But, you know, we should all try to address these issues. | 但是,我们都应该努力解决这些问题。 |
| 1673 | We can agree on that. | 我们可以同意这一点。 |
| 1674 | We should all try to address the problems. | 我们都应该努力解决这些问题。 |
| 1675 | и種琌 и谋眔 exaggerate | |
| 1676 | the scale of Europe's problem. | 欧洲问题的规模。 |
| 1677 | I think people are asleep at the switch | 我觉得有人在开关前睡着了 |
| 1678 | and do not realize the magnitude of the issue. | 并且没有意识到问题的严重性。 |
| 1679 | I also think that your interventions, | 我也认为你的发言, |
| 1680 | however well-intentioned they may be, | 无论他们是否有善意, |
| 1681 | risk making Europe's problem a lot worse. | 冒险让欧洲的问题变得更糟 |
| 1682 | How? | 怎么会? |
| 1683 | Because you are putting your support behind people | 因为你不支持别人 |
| 1684 | who are proto-authoritarians, | 他们是专制的, |
| 1685 | who are not trying simply to, you know, | 他们并不想,你知道, |
| 1686 | make sure there is better integration of Muslims | 确保穆斯林更好地融入社会; |
| 1687 | or to secure the borders, | 或保障边界安全, |
| 1688 | but who have very clear fascist tendencies. | 但他们有非常明显的法西斯倾向。 |
| 1689 | And you will cause huge divisions within Europe. | 你会在欧洲造成巨大的分裂 |
| 1690 | I think what you're saying is total fiction. | 我认为你说的是完全虚构的 |
| 1691 | And really, I'm simply saying that there needs to be, | 真的,我只是说, 需要, |
| 1692 | there needs to, that Europe has to have secure borders. | 欧洲必须拥有安全的边界 |
| 1693 | Okay, on that we agree on. | 好吧,我们同意这一点。 |
| 1694 | And should not let in vast numbers of people | 不应该让大量的人 |
| 1695 | with views that are antithetical | 与反理论观点 |
| 1696 | to the accepted views in Europe | 欧洲接受的意见 |
| 1697 | and where there will not be some level | 和没有某种水平的地方 |
| 1698 | of safe cultural integration. | 安全的文化融合。 |
| 1699 | This is simply common sense. | 这仅仅是常识。 |
| 1700 | If all you are saying is Europe should have secure borders, | 如果你说的是欧洲应该有安全的边界 |
| 1701 | I completely agree with you. | 我完全同意你的观点。 |
| 1702 | Then I have misunderstood what your interventions have been | 我误解了你们的发言 |
| 1703 | on social media, | 关于社交媒体, |
| 1704 | because that is not what the view I have, | 因为这不是我的观点, |
| 1705 | or not what I would conclude having seen | 或者我最后会看到的 |
| 1706 | the people you are supporting and the things you're doing. | 你所支持的人和正在做的事情。 |
| 1707 | But if that's your goal, | 但如果这就是你的目标 |
| 1708 | I share your goal that Europe should have secure borders. | 我同意你的目标 欧洲应该有安全的边界。 |
| 1709 | Yes. | 对 |
| 1710 | I think that's perfectly agreeable. | 我认为这完全可以接受。 |
| 1711 | That gets me to a question. | 这让我想到一个问题。 |
| 1712 | Let me explain what the fundamental forcing function here | 让我来解释一下 根本的强迫作用 |
| 1713 | is for why the borders are not secure, | 这是因为边界不安全, |
| 1714 | which is when you have a welfare state | 当你有一个福利状态 |
| 1715 | that provides substantial benefits | * 提供实质好处 |
| 1716 | to anyone who comes there, | 凡来者, |
| 1717 | you create a very powerful economic forcing function | 你创造了一个非常强大的经济强制功能 |
| 1718 | for anyone who is below that standard of living | 任何低于这一生活水平的人 |
| 1719 | to come to Europe. | 来到欧洲。 |
| 1720 | It is an obvious, powerful driving force. | 这是一种明显、强大的推动力。 |
| 1721 | And people will come there if their standard of living is, | 人们会去那里,如果他们的生活水平是, |
| 1722 | from what they get in Europe, | 从他们在欧洲得到的, |
| 1723 | is above where they are elsewhere in the world. | 在他们位于世界其他地方的地方。 |
| 1724 | It's very basic. | 这是非常基本的。 |
| 1725 | I completely agree with that. | 我完全同意这一点。 |
| 1726 | I don't disagree with that. | 我不同意这一点。 |
| 1727 | It's a very basic incentive structure. | 这是一个非常基本的激励结构. |
| 1728 | Economic conditions, economic influences | 经济状况、经济影响 |
| 1729 | determine a lot of migration. | 确定大量的迁移。 |
| 1730 | I think asylum is a separate issue, | 我认为庇护是一个单独的问题, |
| 1731 | but I think you're absolutely right. | 但我觉得你说得对 |
| 1732 | There are pressures for migration. | 移徙的压力很大。 |
| 1733 | However, there are other things that you haven't focused on, | 但是,还有一些事情 你还没有专注于, |
| 1734 | which is migration brings a lot of benefits. | 移徙带来了很多好处。 |
| 1735 | And it also particularly does so in a continent like Europe, | 特别是在欧洲这样的大陆上 |
| 1736 | which is a rapidly aging continent. | 这是一个迅速老化的大陆。 |
| 1737 | So we can agree that completely uncontrolled borders | 所以我们可以同意 完全不受控制的边界 |
| 1738 | are a bad idea. | 是个坏主意 |
| 1739 | But I think Europe benefits from having immigration, | 但我认为欧洲从移民中受益 |
| 1740 | controlled immigration. | 控制移民。 |
| 1741 | It brings- | 它带来... |
| 1742 | Yes, I'm in favor of immigration. | 是的,我赞成移民 |
| 1743 | Obviously, I'd be hypocritical if I wasn't, | 显然,如果我不是,我会是虚伪的, |
| 1744 | since I'm an immigrant to the United States. | 因为我是美国移民 |
| 1745 | I'm in favor of immigration if the person immigrating | 我赞成移民 如果移民的人 |
| 1746 | is going to be a productive member of society, | 将会成为社会的一个有生产力的成员, |
| 1747 | if they're going to be honest, | 如果他们要诚实 |
| 1748 | and if they're not going to mistreat people | 如果他们不会虐待别人 |
| 1749 | in that country they're going to. | 在那个国家 他们要去。 |
| 1750 | I can agree on all of those. | 我可以同意所有这些。 |
| 1751 | Yes. | 对 |
| 1752 | But I think Europe does better on that | 但我认为欧洲在这方面做得更好 |
| 1753 | than you give it credit for. | 胜过你的功劳 |
| 1754 | That's, I think, where we disagree. | 我认为,这是我们不同意的地方。 |
| 1755 | But let's move on. | 但是,让我们继续前进。 |
| 1756 | Tell me, what do you think people get most wrong about you? | 告诉我,你觉得别人对你最错误吗? |
| 1757 | Well, I mean, you just got a whole bunch of things | 嗯,我的意思是,你只是有一大堆东西 |
| 1758 | wrong about me. | 我错了 |
| 1759 | Pretty much everything in the last, | 几乎在最后的一切, |
| 1760 | just rewind the last 20 minutes, is all wrong. | 只要倒回过去20分钟,都是错的。 |
| 1761 | So I got, we got, I got wrong, you're, you're- | 所以我有,我们有,我错了,你,你... |
| 1762 | Well, let's not be repetitive here. | 好吧,让我们不要重复在这里。 |
| 1763 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 1764 | So that political side of you people get most wrong. | 这样你们的政治方面 才会犯错 |
| 1765 | Yeah, my political views are very, are centrist. | 是啊,我的政治观点是非常,是中间派。 |
| 1766 | They're not far right. | 他们不远对。 |
| 1767 | And frankly, calling it far right, I think, | 坦白地说,我认为这是非常正确的,我想, |
| 1768 | is an insult to history, | 是对历史的侮辱, |
| 1769 | an insult to many peoples. | 是对许多人的侮辱。 |
| 1770 | And it is an outrageous falsehood. | 这是令人发指的谎言。 |
| 1771 | It's completely absurd. | 这是完全荒谬的。 |
| 1772 | I literally have stated my position, which is that, | 我实际上已经表明了我的立场,那就是, |
| 1773 | and I've been very clear about this, | 我很清楚这一点, |
| 1774 | which is that there need to be secure borders, | 即需要有安全的边界, |
| 1775 | that if there's an influx of immigrants, | 如果有移民涌入, |
| 1776 | they need to be people who will agree | 他们需要有人同意 |
| 1777 | that the, with Western ideals, with Western values. | 西方的理想 西方的价值观 |
| 1778 | And if they don't, and if there's a long-term | 如果他们不这样做, 如果有一个长期 |
| 1779 | growth of people who do not, or in some cases, | 人口的增长,没有,或在某些情况下, |
| 1780 | are adamantly opposed to Western values, | 坚决反对西方价值观, |
| 1781 | you are setting yourself up for civil war. | 你准备发动内战 |
| 1782 | This is obvious. | 这很明显 |
| 1783 | A child can see this. | 一个孩子可以看到这一点。 |
| 1784 | But this is not a right-wing view. | 但这不是右翼的观点。 |
| 1785 | I'm simply stating reality. | 我只是说说现实 |
| 1786 | Well, I think we can both agree | 好吧,我想我们都同意 |
| 1787 | that evidence will be able to decide | 证据能够决定 |
| 1788 | which of us is more or less right. | 我们谁或多或少是对的 |
| 1789 | And we will find evidence for both of our views | 我们会找到证据来证明我们的观点 |
| 1790 | in different parts of Europe. | 在欧洲不同地区。 |
| 1791 | The question is what the overall feels. | 问题是总体感觉如何。 |
| 1792 | I'm very good at predicting the future. | 我擅长预测未来. |
| 1793 | I'm not perfect, but I'm very good at predicting the future. | 我并不完美,但我非常擅长预测未来. |
| 1794 | My batting average is very high for a human. | 人类的打击率很高 |
| 1795 | But this does have somewhat of a Cassandra effect, | 但这确实有点卡珊德拉效应 |
| 1796 | where people don't believe that what I'm saying | 人们不相信我在说什么 |
| 1797 | is likely to be true. | 这很可能是真的。 |
| 1798 | Because, you know, I can see into the future | 因为,你知道,我可以看见未来 |
| 1799 | with a higher bat, not perfectly, | 用更高的球棒,不完美, |
| 1800 | but with a higher probability of success than most people. | 但成功的概率比大多数人都高 |
| 1801 | And including things that people believe to be, | 包括人们相信的东西, |
| 1802 | in some cases, counterintuitive. | 在某些情况下,反直觉。 |
| 1803 | And again, I'm not saying I'm always right. | 再说一遍,我不是说我总是对的 |
| 1804 | I certainly am not. | 我当然不是。 |
| 1805 | But my batting average is very good. | 但我的击球平均率很好 |
| 1806 | But this does have, like I said, a Cassandra effect, | 但正如我说的 卡珊德拉效应 |
| 1807 | where people don't realize that what I'm saying | 人们不知道我在说什么 |
| 1808 | will come to pass. | 将会通过。 |
| 1809 | Maybe not exactly in the timing that I thought, | 也许不是我想的时机 |
| 1810 | but it will come to pass. | 但它会到来。 |
| 1811 | And history will write the verdict. | 历史将写下判决 |
| 1812 | But I think you will see that very little of what I've said | 但我想你们会明白我说的话 |
| 1813 | is inaccurate. | 不准确。 |
| 1814 | And a super majority of what I've said is very accurate | 我所说的绝大多数都非常准确 |
| 1815 | and will come to pass, | 将降临, |
| 1816 | unless there's some change in direction. | 除非方向有所改变 |
| 1817 | Do you have a higher confidence level | 你有更高的信心吗? |
| 1818 | in your expectations of the future for AI, | 在你对未来对AI的期望中 |
| 1819 | the first part of our conversation, | 我们谈话的第一部分 |
| 1820 | or the latter part, the political part? | 还是后半部分,政治部分? |
| 1821 | Digital superintelligence is called the singularity, | 数字超级智能被称为奇特, |
| 1822 | like a black hole, | 就像一个黑洞, |
| 1823 | because you don't know what's going to happen after that, | 因为你不知道之后会发生什么事 |
| 1824 | and it sort of sucks in everything. | 它有点逊 在所有的东西。 |
| 1825 | So I think really, | 所以我觉得真的 |
| 1826 | in terms of the really big macro effects here, | 就真正的宏观影响而言, |
| 1827 | AI and robots will really dominate everything. | AI和机器人将真正主宰一切。 |
| 1828 | So on a time scale, that is less than 10 years. | 因此,在时间尺度上,不到10年。 |
| 1829 | Which probably renders this other stuff | 这可能使这个其他的东西 |
| 1830 | that we've been talking about less important | 我们一直在谈论 不重要 |
| 1831 | and less relevant. | 更没有意义 |
| 1832 | The AI robotics revolution | AI机器人革命 |
| 1833 | will happen sooner than civil war in Britain. | 比英国内战更早发生 |
| 1834 | I would say civil war in Britain is probably 20 years away. | 我想英国的内战大概还有20年 |
| 1835 | And the AI robot singularity is 10 years away. | 而AI机器人奇异性则在10年之后. |
| 1836 | Well, hopefully these benign, all-powerful AIs | 希望这些良性、全能的人工智能 |
| 1837 | will prevent such outcomes. | 将防止这种结果。 |
| 1838 | They probably will. | 他们可能会的。 |
| 1839 | Elon, I don't agree with everything you say, | 伊隆,我不同意你说的 |
| 1840 | but it's always absolutely fascinating to talk to you. | 但跟你说话总是很迷人 |
| 1841 | Thank you very much indeed. | 非常感谢 |
| 1842 | Thank you, you're welcome. | 谢谢,不客气。 |
| 1843 | I'm not boring. | 我不无聊。 |
| 1844 | You're definitely not boring. | 你绝对不无聊。 |
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