《经济学人》油价破百背后的阳谋：发战争财的巨头们，正在密谋怎
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| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 《经济学人》油价破百背后的阳谋：发战争财的巨头们，正在密谋怎 | 10:12 |
P1 · 《经济学人》油价破百背后的阳谋：发战争财的巨头们，正在密谋怎样的资本大洗牌？ [B2] p01 原声 (P1)
![《经济学人》油价破百背后的阳谋：发战争财的巨头们，正在密谋怎样的资本大洗牌？ [B2] p01 原声 (P1)](https://1zimu.com/subtitle/imgs/20260928/da8ipj1mvvjh5qnkxz9eo5z9_1790563029026.jpg)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | Business | 商业 |
| 0:06 | The oil business | 石油业务 |
| 0:08 | Spoils of war | 战争的破坏 |
| 0:11 | How an oil supply crisis could bring about an investment boom | 石油供应危机如何带来投资繁荣 |
| 0:17 | This year was supposed to be miserable for oil companies | 今年对石油公司来说应该很悲惨 |
| 0:21 | When it began, the price of Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, was forecast to fall below $60 a barrel | 开始后,国际基准布伦特原油期货的价格预计将跌至每桶60美元以下 |
| 0:30 | Down from $68 in 2025 and $80 in 2024 amid a super glut in supply | 由2025年的68美元和2024年的80美元下降 供应超负荷 |
| 0:39 | Instead, Donald Trump's war in the Gulf has propelled it into triple digits | 相反,唐纳德·特朗普在海湾的战争 已经将其推向三位数 |
| 0:45 | Many analysts now expect it to average $85 or more in 2026 | 许多分析家预计2026年平均85美元以上 |
| 0:52 | Some anticipate the price reaching $120 a barrel if shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue | 有些人预计,如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运继续遭受袭击,价格将达到每桶120美元。 |
展开字幕全文（75 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Business | 商业 |
| 2 | The oil business | 石油业务 |
| 3 | Spoils of war | 战争的破坏 |
| 4 | How an oil supply crisis could bring about an investment boom | 石油供应危机如何带来投资繁荣 |
| 5 | This year was supposed to be miserable for oil companies | 今年对石油公司来说应该很悲惨 |
| 6 | When it began, the price of Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, was forecast to fall below $60 a barrel | 开始后,国际基准布伦特原油期货的价格预计将跌至每桶60美元以下 |
| 7 | Down from $68 in 2025 and $80 in 2024 amid a super glut in supply | 由2025年的68美元和2024年的80美元下降 供应超负荷 |
| 8 | Instead, Donald Trump's war in the Gulf has propelled it into triple digits | 相反,唐纳德·特朗普在海湾的战争 已经将其推向三位数 |
| 9 | Many analysts now expect it to average $85 or more in 2026 | 许多分析家预计2026年平均85美元以上 |
| 10 | Some anticipate the price reaching $120 a barrel if shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue | 有些人预计,如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运继续遭受袭击,价格将达到每桶120美元。 |
| 11 | In recent days, events to the West, advances by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia's closure of its east-west pipeline, an alternative route to Hormuz for its oil after a drone attack, have kept it around $105 | 最近几天,西方发生的事件、伊朗支持的Houthis在也门的推进以及沙特阿拉伯关闭其东西输油管,这是Hormuz在无人驾驶飞机攻击后石油的替代路线,一直维持在105美元左右。 |
| 12 | Dated Brent for delivery in a few weeks, which is usually within a few dollars of the futures price, jumped to $132 on September 15, according to Platts, a price reporting agency | 通常在期货价格的几美元范围内, 9月15日, |
| 13 | It receded to $126 the next day | 第二天退到126块 |
| 14 | The price surprise has proved a boon to the industry | 价格意外证明对行业有利 |
| 15 | Shares in oil and gas businesses worldwide have risen by an aggregate 40% since the start of the year, compared with 12% for listed companies as a whole | 自年初以来,全世界石油和天然气企业的份额共增加了40%,而整个上市公司的份额为12%。 |
| 16 | The combined profits of the West's seven biggest integrated oil companies, plus Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-owned colossus, hit $91 billion in the second quarter of 2026, twice their level a year earlier | 2026年第二季度,西方七大综合石油公司,加上沙特阿拉伯国有石油公司的合并利润达到910亿美元,是一年前的两倍。 |
| 17 | The bonanza follows years of shareholder enforced restraint after a spending spree collided with a price collapse in the mid-2010s | 2010年代中期,一场支出暴跌与价格暴跌相撞后,股东们强制实施了多年限制。 |
| 18 | Capital expenditure did rise after Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed oil above $120 a barrel, but cash flow grew faster | 俄国入侵乌克兰后, 资本支出确实上升了, 石油超过每桶120美元, |
| 19 | The surplus went mostly on repayment of debt and payouts to shareholders, rather than on new wells | 盈余主要用于还债和向股东付款,而不是用于新井 |
| 20 | Much of the CapEx increase in turn reflected inflation in drilling and service costs, rather than a genuine surge in activity | CapEx的增加大部分则反映了钻井和服务成本的通货膨胀,而不是活动的真正激增 |
| 21 | This time, though, oil firms may have to do more with their towering piles of cash | 不过这次石油公司 可能要花更多的钱 |
| 22 | The Gulf War could set off a burst of exploration and deal-making that shapes the rest of the decade and beyond | 海湾战争可能引发一阵探索和交易的爆发 塑造这十年余下时间 |
| 23 | Oil companies have so far also spent their latest windfall largely on paying down debt and rewarding shareholders, and at the margin on increasing output from existing assets | 石油公司迄今还将其最新的意外收入主要用于偿还债务和奖励股东,并差幅用于增加现有资产的产出 |
| 24 | Take debt first, the companies used much of the cash that arrived after the invasion of Ukraine to shore up their balance sheets | 先是欠债,公司用乌克兰入侵后运来的现金 来巩固资产负债表 |
| 25 | In the 18 months or so before the Gulf War, as prices fell, they turned back to borrowing, to keep shareholder distribution steady and fund committed capital expenditure | 在海湾战争前的18个月左右,随着物价下跌,他们又转向借款,使股东分配保持稳定,并为承诺的资本支出提供资金. |
| 26 | Now they are deleveraging once again. | 现在他们再次去杠杆化。 |
| 27 | In the second quarter of 2026, the five largest majors, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergy, cut their combined net debt by $36 billion, or nearly 20% | 在2026年第二季度,埃克森美孚,雪佛龙,壳牌,BP和Total Energy这五个最大的大公司将其合并净债务削减360亿美元,即接近20%. |
| 28 | Smaller firms, which typically have heavier debt burdens, have been even more focused on lightening them | 通常债务负担较重的小型公司更注重减轻它们的负担。 |
| 29 | Another priority for oil firms has been lining their owners' pockets | 石油公司的另一个优先事项是铺设业主的口袋。 |
| 30 | On the eve of the Iran War, many investors were bracing for leaner times | 在伊朗战争前夕,许多投资者都在为更瘦的时代吹嘘 |
| 31 | The majors had announced a combined 11% cut in shareholder distributions, mostly through cancelled buyback programmes, notes Alistair Syme of Citigroup, a bank | 大部分股东通过取消回购计划, |
| 32 | Special dividends doled out by smaller firms, often debt funded, looked unsustainable | 往往由债务供资的小型公司发放的特别红利看来是不可持续的 |
| 33 | The oil price bonanza has changed that. | 油价已经改变了这一点。 |
| 34 | All the majors, bar BP, have either held dividends and buybacks steady, or increased them | 所有专业,酒吧,BP, 要么持有股利和稳定回购, 要么增加它们 |
| 35 | Small players are now offering not just special dividends, but recurring ones too | 小角色现在不仅提供特别的红利, 也提供重复的红利 |
| 36 | After debt reductions and shareholder payouts, little has been left for investing in expansion | 在减债和股东付款之后,对扩大投资所剩无几 |
| 37 | Aggregate cash on hand at the majors barely budged between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of this year | 从2025年第四季度到今年第二季度,各大学校手头的现金总额几乎没有增加。 |
| 38 | Executives have been at pain to reassure investors that most of the 2026 windfall will trickle down to them, not into new projects | 管理者一直痛苦地向投资者保证,2026年的暴利大部分会流向他们,而不是流入新的项目. |
| 39 | The only exceptions are Diamondback, a fracking giant, and big unlisted firms such as Continental Resources and Hillcorp Energy | 唯一的例外是Damondback, 一个破碎的巨头, 和大型非上市公司,如大陆资源公司和希尔公司能源公司 |
| 40 | Which have funded quick turnaround projects like completing existing wells in America's shale basins | 已经资助了快速转机项目 比如完成美国页岩盆地的现有水井 |
| 41 | Earlier in the war, such caution was warranted. | 在战争初期,这种谨慎是必要的。 |
| 42 | Oil prices crashed in June, when America and Iran reached a tentative deal | 油价在6月暴跌, 当时美国和伊朗达成了一个临时协议 |
| 43 | But now that renewed fighting has sent them soaring, they could stay high for months, making new projects more viable | 但是现在战火重燃了, 他们可以保持高几个月, 让新的项目更可行 |
| 44 | Those projects are becoming essential. | 这些项目正变得至关重要。 |
| 45 | Every two years the depletion of oil fields costs the world a Saudi Arabia's worth of crude supply | 两年一次油田的耗竭 使世界损失了沙特阿拉伯的原油供应 |
| 46 | Replacing it is getting harder. | 替换它越来越难。 |
| 47 | The paucity of recent discoveries means daily oil and gas production could fall by 31 million barrels by 2040, nearly a fifth of today's total | 最近发现不多意味着到2040年石油和天然气的日产量可能减少3 100万桶,几乎占今天总量的五分之一。 |
| 48 | As many as 70 companies are at risk of their output falling by half, reckons Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy | 多达70家公司面临产出下降一半的风险, |
| 49 | Oil firms therefore need to refresh their portfolios, and they now have the means to do so | 因此,石油公司需要更新其投资组合,它们现在有能力这样做。 |
| 50 | 《石油经济学家》杂志Paul Hicken指出, | |
| 51 | The slow way to gain new assets is to explore. | 获得新资产的缓慢方式是探索. |
| 52 | Budgets aren't rising yet, but there are signs that the majors are on the hunt | 预算还没有上升,但有迹象表明 少校在狩猎 |
| 53 | Rather than bidding for formal licenses and committing capital up front, they have been amassing huge tracts of land, then scanning them with artificial intelligence tools to seek places to drill | 而不是公开申请正式的许可证和投入资本,而是集聚了大片土地,然后用人工智能工具扫描它们,以寻找钻探的地方。 |
| 54 | Farm down deals, in which a national oil company funds a foreign major's exploration in return for a stake, are also becoming more common, partly because governments want to boost domestic production | 农场倒闭交易,即一家国家石油公司资助外国少校的勘探以换取股份,也越来越普遍,部分原因是政府想提高国内产量。 |
| 55 | A wide range of geographies are drawing attention. | 众多的地理图引起了人们的注意. |
| 56 | There are deep water plays in the South Atlantic off the coasts of Namibia or South Africa, as well as the eastern Mediterranean | 纳米比亚或南非沿海的南大西洋 以及地中海东部都有深水戏 |
| 57 | There are uncharted basins in places such as Uruguay, Vietnam and Papua New Guinea, where exploration is just beginning | 乌拉圭、越南和巴布亚新几内亚等地都有未知的盆地,那里的勘探刚刚开始。 |
| 58 | And there are countries from Algeria to Australia where firms are trying to replicate the American shale approach, along with mature reservoirs in Asia that can simply be drilled harder | 还有一些从阿尔及利亚到澳大利亚的国家 公司试图复制美国页岩方法 以及亚洲成熟的水库 |
| 59 | A quicker route to building resources is to acquire rivals. | 更快的建设资源的途径是获得竞争对手. |
| 60 | At the start of the year, merger activity was expected to be muted, as low prices depressed appetite for deals | 在年初,兼并活动预计会停息,因为低价降低对交易的胃口 |
| 61 | It was slow at first, but for the opposite reason. | 一开始是缓慢的,但出于相反的原因. |
| 62 | Bernstein的Bob Brackett说, | |
| 63 | Both sides are now getting used to the idea of higher prices for longer, and dealmaking has accelerated. | 双方现在都习惯了长期提高价格的想法,交易也加快了. |
| 64 | Seven deals above $1 billion have been announced in the past two months | 在过去两个月里,已经宣布了7项超过10亿美元的交易 |
| 65 | Transactions may well multiply next year. | 交易很可能在明年增加。 |
| 66 | 现在大公司已经消化了 它们在20世纪20年代早期所做的大收购, 注意到Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners,一家投资公司 | |
| 67 | Stronger balance sheets will make it easier to splash out. | 较强的资产负债表将更容易溢出。 |
| 68 | Private equity firms, commodity traders and outsiders seeking resources beyond the Gulf, the Japanese among them, are seeking assets too | 私募股权公司、商品交易商和在海湾以外寻找资源的外来者,包括日本人,也在寻找资产。 |
| 69 | And America will have less than two years left of a deal-friendly, drill-happy administration | 美国还有不到两年的时间 拥有一个方便交易的 愉快的行政当局 |
| 70 | Shareholders, for their part, do not seem to be banking on a golden age of expansion just yet. | 就股东而言,他们似乎还没有进入扩张的黄金时代。 |
| 71 | Hassan El-Touri of S&P Global, an information provider, notes that most listed oil companies trade at the same price-to-cash-flow multiples as before the war | 信息供应商S&P Global的Hassan El-Touri指出,大多数上市石油公司的贸易价格与战争前相同。 |
| 72 | Suggesting their outperformance reflects higher oil prices, not any lasting change in their prospects. | 提出其业绩超过预期反映了油价的上涨,而不是其前景的任何持久变化。 |
| 73 | The trajectory of oil demand remains uncertain. | 石油需求的轨迹仍然不确定。 |
| 74 | Exploration could disappoint, and there are few obvious big acquisition targets to go after | 探索可能令人失望, 几乎没有明显大的收购目标 |
| 75 | Nevertheless, the quagmire in the Gulf gives the industry just the opportunity it needs to set a new course | 尽管如此,海湾的泥石流 给了这个行业 创造新航线的机会 |
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