畅销书中的个人理财建议都是“坑”吗？教授专家的理论都是“宝典
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event on wrong but useful, why experts have blind spots, which is also part of the Greenberg Distinguished Colloquium. | 欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京会议, 讨论为什么专家有盲点, |
| 0:15 | I am Carolee Rafferty, the executive director of Yale Center Beijing and a Yale College alumna. | 我是Carolee Rafferty,耶鲁北京中心执行董事兼耶鲁大学校友. |
| 0:22 | For those of you who might be new to Yale Center Beijing, the center is Yale University's only university wide center outside of its US campus. | 对于你们中那些可能刚到耶鲁中心北京的人来说,这个中心是耶鲁大学唯一的大学宽度中心,位于其美国校园外. |
| 0:33 | Throughout the year, we host talks such as these convening thought leaders from all sectors to discuss the most cutting edge interesting and important matters in our world. | 在整个一年中,我们主持各种会谈,例如召集所有部门的思想领袖,讨论我们世界上最尖端的有趣和重要的问题。 |
| 0:46 | Today, we have the pleasure of being able to invite Professor James Choi to speak about his work on behavioral finance and economics, especially drawing on a paper he wrote that has gone viral titled popular personal finance advice versus the | 今天,我们很高兴能邀请 James Choi教授 讲述他的行为金融与经济学方面的工作, 特别是他写的一篇论文, |
| 1:07 | Professor James Choi read 50 best selling personal finance books in the United States, compared their advice to normative principles drawn from economic theory and published published the results in this paper. | 詹姆斯·崔教授阅读了美国50种畅销的个人金融书籍,将他们的建议与从经济理论中吸取的规范原则进行比较,并在本文中发表了结果. |
| 1:23 | Professor Choi is a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, whose work has led to changes in pension plans, designs, plan pension plan designs around the world. | 崔教授是耶鲁管理学院的财务教授,他的工作导致了世界各地养老金计划,设计,计划养老金计划设计的变化. |
| 1:36 | Among his many accolades and roles, he is a two time recipient of the TIAA Paul A. Samuelson award for outstanding scholarly writing on lifelong financial security. | 在他的众多成就和角色中,他两次获得TIAA Paul A. Samuelson奖,以表彰终身经济保障方面的杰出学术著作。 |
| 1:49 | And he is a co director of the retirement and disability research center at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States. | 并担任美国国家经济研究局退休与残疾研究中心联合主任. |
| 1:59 | Today's event will proceed as follows. | 今天的活动将如下。 |
展开字幕全文（445 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event on wrong but useful, why experts have blind spots, which is also part of the Greenberg Distinguished Colloquium. | 欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京会议, 讨论为什么专家有盲点, |
| 2 | I am Carolee Rafferty, the executive director of Yale Center Beijing and a Yale College alumna. | 我是Carolee Rafferty,耶鲁北京中心执行董事兼耶鲁大学校友. |
| 3 | For those of you who might be new to Yale Center Beijing, the center is Yale University's only university wide center outside of its US campus. | 对于你们中那些可能刚到耶鲁中心北京的人来说,这个中心是耶鲁大学唯一的大学宽度中心,位于其美国校园外. |
| 4 | Throughout the year, we host talks such as these convening thought leaders from all sectors to discuss the most cutting edge interesting and important matters in our world. | 在整个一年中,我们主持各种会谈,例如召集所有部门的思想领袖,讨论我们世界上最尖端的有趣和重要的问题。 |
| 5 | Today, we have the pleasure of being able to invite Professor James Choi to speak about his work on behavioral finance and economics, especially drawing on a paper he wrote that has gone viral titled popular personal finance advice versus the | 今天,我们很高兴能邀请 James Choi教授 讲述他的行为金融与经济学方面的工作, 特别是他写的一篇论文, |
| 6 | Professor James Choi read 50 best selling personal finance books in the United States, compared their advice to normative principles drawn from economic theory and published published the results in this paper. | 詹姆斯·崔教授阅读了美国50种畅销的个人金融书籍,将他们的建议与从经济理论中吸取的规范原则进行比较,并在本文中发表了结果. |
| 7 | Professor Choi is a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, whose work has led to changes in pension plans, designs, plan pension plan designs around the world. | 崔教授是耶鲁管理学院的财务教授,他的工作导致了世界各地养老金计划,设计,计划养老金计划设计的变化. |
| 8 | Among his many accolades and roles, he is a two time recipient of the TIAA Paul A. Samuelson award for outstanding scholarly writing on lifelong financial security. | 在他的众多成就和角色中,他两次获得TIAA Paul A. Samuelson奖,以表彰终身经济保障方面的杰出学术著作。 |
| 9 | And he is a co director of the retirement and disability research center at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States. | 并担任美国国家经济研究局退休与残疾研究中心联合主任. |
| 10 | Today's event will proceed as follows. | 今天的活动将如下。 |
| 11 | Professor Choi will give a presentation, and then I will moderate the audience Q&A session afterwards. | Choi教授将发表演讲, |
| 12 | Throughout the talk, if you have any questions that you'd like to post to Professor Choi, please feel free to type them in the zoom chat box. | 在整个谈话过程中,如果你有任何问题想寄给崔教授,请随意在缩放聊天框中输入. |
| 13 | And I'll keep an eye on them and select them and post them to Professor Choi during the Q&A. | 我会看着他们 挑选他们 并寄给Choi教授 |
| 14 | Without further ado, let's welcome Professor Choi. | 别再说了,欢迎崔教授 |
| 15 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 16 | Thanks for the invitation. | 谢谢你的邀请 |
| 17 | It's a pleasure to be here. | 幸会 |
| 18 | As Carol mentioned, recently a paper I published unexpectedly went viral. | 正如卡罗尔提到的,最近我发表的一篇论文 出乎意料地成了病毒。 |
| 19 | An email went out to the world from the National Bureau of Economic Research at 1257 a.m. on August 22, listing my paper and its abstract along with 21 other papers and in this one email. | 8月22日上午12时57分, 国家经济研究局发来一封电子邮件, 列出我的论文及其摘要, |
| 20 | At 834 a.m. that same day, a journalist emailed me asking if I'd be willing to be interviewed about the paper. | 当天早上8点34分,一位记者通过电子邮件问我是否愿意接受有关报纸的采访. |
| 21 | So at 1015 a.m. | 故十时十五分. |
| 22 | I spoke with this journalist as I was being driven to JFK Airport in New York, where I was catching a flight. | 我和这位记者谈过了,当时我正被赶到纽约肯尼迪机场,在那里我正在搭飞机。 |
| 23 | At 120 p.m. that same day, while I was on my flight, another journalist emailed me asking me if I'd be willing to be interviewed for a radio show. | 当天下午120时,当我在飞机上时,另一位记者通过电子邮件问我是否愿意接受电台节目采访. |
| 24 | And that was really just the beginning. | 这其实只是开始。 |
| 25 | Over the course of the next two months, I was interviewed by many other journalists and appeared in multiple podcasts, even a couple of TV shows to talk about my paper. | 在接下来的两个月里,我接受了许多其他记者的采访,并在多个播客节目中出现,甚至有几部电视节目来谈论我的论文. |
| 26 | This is not the usual reaction to papers that I publish. | 这不是我出版的论文通常的反应。 |
| 27 | Usually the broader world does not pay much attention to academic research papers. | 通常,更广大的世界对学术研究论文重视不够. |
| 28 | And so, you know, why was this paper the one that generated so much interest? | 那么,你知道,为什么这份论文 引起了这么多的兴趣? |
| 29 | As Carol mentioned, the paper's title is Popular Personal Financial Advice Versus the Professors. | 正如卡罗尔提到的那样,论文的题目是大众个人财务咨询 Versus the Professors. |
| 30 | The idea was very simple. | 这个想法很简单。 |
| 31 | Economists have all sorts of theories about what the right thing to do is in your personal financial life. | 经济学家们对于你个人财务生活中应该做什么有各种各样的理论. |
| 32 | But there's a parallel universe of people out there who are also giving advice about how you should manage your finances. | 但是,有一个平行的宇宙 外面的人 他们也在提供建议 如何管理你的财务。 |
| 33 | These people appear on TV and radio in the U.S. | 这些人在美国的电视和广播中出现. |
| 34 | They're people like Dave Ramsey, Susie Orman on the left in the center here, or Jack Bogle, the founder of the mutual fund giant Vanguard. | 他们是像戴夫·拉姆齐(Dave Ramsey),左侧的苏西·奥曼(Susie Orman)在中央这里,或者共同基金巨头"先锋"的创始人杰克·博格尔(Jack Bogle)这样的人. |
| 35 | These people are probably way more influential than any economist. | 这些人可能比任何经济学家都更有影响力。 |
| 36 | Let's take Dave Ramsey, for example. | 我们拿戴夫·拉姆齐来说 |
| 37 | He sold one and a half million copies of his book Total Money Makeover since 2013. | 自2013年起,他卖出了150万份他的"总金钱改造"一书. |
| 38 | 18 million people listen to his radio show every week, which maybe isn't that many people in China, but it's a lot of people in the U.S. | 每周有1800万人收听他的电台节目,这在中国也许不是那么多人,而是美国很多人. |
| 39 | He's uploaded many of his radio shows to YouTube and people have viewed those videos almost 650 million times. | 他上传了许多他的电台节目到YouTube,人们观看了这些视频近6.5亿次. |
| 40 | So the idea of my paper was pretty simple. | 所以我的论文想法很简单。 |
| 41 | Let's just summarize the advice given in the 50 most popular personal finance books and compare that advice to the advice that is given by academic economic theory. | 让我们简单地总结一下50种最受欢迎的个人金融书籍中给出的建议,并将这种建议与学术经济理论给出的建议进行比较. |
| 42 | I mean, shouldn't we economists know what these other people who are kind of in the same business that we're in and are very influential shouldn't know what the other people are saying. | 我的意思是,我们经济学家难道不应该知道 这些人是什么样的人 在相同的业务,我们是 并且非常有影响力 不应该知道 其他人在说什么。 |
| 43 | And I discovered that people are very interested in somebody making that connection between these two parallel worlds of advice. | 我发现,人们很感兴趣 有人在这两个平行的建议世界之间 建立这种联系。 |
| 44 | And, you know, it wasn't just journalists and their readers. | 而且,你知道,不仅仅是记者和他们的读者。 |
| 45 | I had a lot of economics and finance professors from around the U.S. email me telling me how much they liked this paper. | 我有很多经济学和财经学的教授 在美国的电子邮件上,我告诉我他们有多喜欢这份论文。 |
| 46 | And again, this is not the usual reaction to papers I publish. | 再说一次,这不是我所发表的论文通常的反应。 |
| 47 | Usually the reaction is just silence. | 通常反应只是沉默. |
| 48 | Now, today's talk is actually not primarily about this paper. | 现在,今天的谈话实际上不是主要关于这个论文. |
| 49 | This is a talk about the question, why didn't anyone else think to write this paper before? | 这是关于这个问题的谈话,为什么以前没有人想写这个论文? |
| 50 | This was not a paper that required a high IQ to write. | 这不是需要高智商才能写的论文。 |
| 51 | It's on topic. | 其题曰. |
| 52 | That's a great interest to a lot of people. | 令众生大利益. |
| 53 | Didn't take a lot of money to buy these 50 books. | 买这50本书没花太多钱 |
| 54 | They're sold for pretty cheap. | 卖得便宜 |
| 55 | There are a lot of economists out there who could have written this paper. | 有很多经济学家可以写这篇论文。 |
| 56 | Why didn't they? | 他们为什么不呢? |
| 57 | Now, I don't know everything that's going on in the lives and brains of other economists, so I can't provide a definitive answer. | 现在,我不知道其他经济学家的生活和大脑中所发生的一切,所以我不能提供确切的答案. |
| 58 | But I do have a theory, and it's a theory that explains why experts so often have blind spots about their own areas of expertise. | 但我有一个理论,它是一个理论 解释为什么专家 经常对自己的专业领域有盲点。 |
| 59 | My theory is this. | 我的理论是这样的 |
| 60 | There was a famous statistician, George Box, who had a famous saying, all models are wrong, but some are useful. | 当时有一个著名的统计学家乔治·博克斯(George Box),他有一句著名的谚语,所有模型都是错误的,但有些模型是有用的. |
| 61 | When experts first start getting trained in their field, they see that the field's models, that is the field's theories, are wrong. | 当专家开始接受本领域培训时,他们发现本领域模型,即本领域理论是错误的. |
| 62 | They're not totally accurate, but they're drawn into the field because they also see that the field's models, the field's theories are useful. | 它们并非完全准确,而是被引入了这个领域,因为它们也看到了这个领域的模型,这个领域的理论是有用的. |
| 63 | And as they spend more and more time in their field and start becoming an expert in it, they forget the first part of the sentence. | 而随着他们在他们的领域花费越来越多的时间,开始成为这方面的专家,他们忘记了第一句. |
| 64 | They forget that their model is wrong. | 他们忘记了他们的模式是错误的. |
| 65 | Why are all models wrong? | 为什么所有的模特都错了? |
| 66 | Well, in order for a model or a theory to perfectly match what's in the world, that model would have to be as complicated as the world. | 为了让一个模型或一个理论 完全符合世界上的事物, 这个模型必须像世界一样复杂。 |
| 67 | But a model that complicated would be too complicated for us to understand. | 但是,一个复杂的模式太复杂了,我们无法理解。 |
| 68 | So that kind of a model would actually provide no insight. | 因此,这种模型实际上不会提供任何见解。 |
| 69 | In order for a model to be useful, it has to simplify reality. | 为了使模型有用,它必须简化现实. |
| 70 | But if it's a simplification of reality, it's not going to perfectly reproduce reality. | 但是,如果这是对现实的简化,它不会完美地复制现实. |
| 71 | And so that's why all models are wrong, but some models are useful. | 所以所有模型都是错误的, 但有些模型是有用的。 |
| 72 | So let's talk about a workhorse model in economics that is clearly wrong. | 所以,让我们来谈谈经济学中 一个明显错误的工作马模型。 |
| 73 | Economists model people as having what we call a utility function, which you can kind of think of as being like a happiness function. | 经济学家们将人模拟为具有我们称之为的效用功能, 你可以将它看作是一种幸福功能。 |
| 74 | So here's a graph of a simple utility function. | 下面是简单的公用功能图。 |
| 75 | On the horizontal axis is how much money does the person have and the vertical axis represents how happy the person is. | 在水平轴上是人有多少钱,垂直轴代表人有多幸福. |
| 76 | So this utility function shows that the person gets super unhappy if the money he has drops towards zero and he gets happier as he gets more money. | 所以这个公用功能表明,如果资金下降到零,一个人就会变得超级不高兴,而随着他得到更多的资金,他就会更加快乐. |
| 77 | Economists say that people make choices as if they maximize their expected level of happiness as represented by a function like this. | 经济学家们说,人们做出选择,好像他们尽可能地实现预期的幸福程度,就像这种功能所代表的那样。 |
| 78 | How does this work? | 怎么会这样? |
| 79 | There's a little bit of math in the slide, but don't worry, this is just a little bit of math in the talk. | 幻灯片里有一点数学,但别担心,这只是演讲中的一点数学. |
| 80 | You don't quite follow what I'm about to say on the slide, you'll still be able to understand the rest of this talk. | 你不太明白我在幻灯片上要说的话 你还是能听懂这些话的 |
| 81 | But no, let's just kind of walk through this for about 45 seconds. | 但是,我们只是走过这大约45秒。 |
| 82 | Let's say that you have a person that's making a choice between getting 100 yuan for sure or playing a gamble that has a 50% chance of giving her 50 yuan and a 50% chance of giving her 160 yuan. | 假设你有一个人,在一定得到100元人民币或者赌博上做出选择,赌博上半有机会给她50元人民币和半有机会给她160元人民币. |
| 83 | Which of these is she going to choose, the safe option or the gamble? | 她会选择哪一个 安全选择还是赌博? |
| 84 | Economists say let's suppose that this person has that utility function, that happiness function I just showed you on the prior slide. | 经济学家们说,让我们假设这个人有这个功能, 幸福的功能,我刚刚在前一张幻灯片上给你看。 |
| 85 | So you plug in numbers into that function and so what is the utility of having 100 yuan? | 所以,你把数字插入到这个功能中, 那么有100元人民币有什么用? |
| 86 | What turns out with that function, it's 4.61. | 结果是,它的作用是4.61。 |
| 87 | So getting 100 yuan for sure gets the person a happiness level of 4.61. | 所以,得到100元人民币肯定 给人幸福的水平是4.61。 |
| 88 | If the person chooses the gamble, she has a 50% chance of getting the utility associated with having 160 yuan or a 50% chance of utility of getting a 50 yuan. | 如果当事人选择赌博,她有50%的机会获得与160元人民币有关的效用,或者50%的机会获得50元人民币的效用。 |
| 89 | And again, it so happens if you have the utility function on the prior graph, 160 yuan gives you a happiness level of 5.08 and 50 yuan gives you utility level of 3.91. | 同样,如果你在上一个图上有公用功能,160元人民币给你幸福度5.08,50元人民币给你3.91. |
| 90 | You just do the arithmetic and so the expected utility or the average amount of happiness you would get from taking that gamble is 4.49. | 你只是做算术,所以预期的效用 或者你从赌博中获得的平均幸福是4.49。 |
| 91 | So we compare this average level of happiness with this level of happiness and you see the 4.61 is bigger than 4.49. | 因此,我们把平均幸福水平与这个幸福水平进行比较, 你看4.61比4.49大。 |
| 92 | So this person is going to choose the safe option instead of taking the gamble. | 所以这个人会选择安全选择 而不是赌博 |
| 93 | Now you might say that this is an incredibly impoverished, inaccurate way of thinking about how real people make choices at risk and you would be right. | 你可以说,这是一种极度贫困,不准确的思维方式, 思考真实的人如何在风险中做出选择, 你是对的。 |
| 94 | There is a ton of evidence that people do not make choices about risk in this way. | 有大量证据表明,人们不会以这种方式选择风险。 |
| 95 | Expected utility theory, which I have just described, is wrong, but there are hundreds of thousands of economics papers that have been written using expected utility theory because it is a useful way to represent human decision making. | 我刚才描述的预期效用理论是错误的,但是有几十万份经济学论文是用预期效用理论写的,因为它是代表人类决策的有用方法. |
| 96 | And so economists have collectively agreed that if we see a paper presented that uses expected utility theory, we almost never will derail the entire presentation from the very beginning by raising our hand saying, | 因此,经济学家们一致认为,如果我们看到一篇论文 使用了预期的效用理论, 我们几乎永远不会从一开始就通过举手来破坏整个陈述, |
| 97 | don't you know that expected utility theory is wrong? | 你不知道预期的效用理论是错误的吗? |
| 98 | We have collectively decided we are going to ignore this wrongness because it allows us to get some other insights. | 我们集体决定,我们将无视这种错误,因为它使我们能够获得一些其他见解。 |
| 99 | But this raises a question. | 但这引起了一个问题。 |
| 100 | If all models are wrong, who gets to decide what models aren't too wrong? | 如果所有模型都错了,谁可以决定哪些模型没有太错? |
| 101 | If some models are useful, who gets to decide which models are useful enough? | 如果有些模型有用,谁可以决定哪些模型足够有用? |
| 102 | This really highlights the fact that all knowledge creation is a social process. | 这确实突出了一个事实,即所有的知识创造都是一个社会过程. |
| 103 | A community of researchers together decides which models aren't too wrong and which models are useful enough. | 研究者们共同决定哪些模型不太错误,哪些模型足够有用。 |
| 104 | And of course, the leaders of these communities are going to have a disproportionate influence in making these types of decisions. | 当然,这些社区的领导人在作出这些类型的决定时将产生不成比例的影响。 |
| 105 | If all models are wrong, but we're going to accept some of them as useful, that means that we're going to make decisions about what kinds of disconfirming evidence are not to be taken too seriously. | 如果所有模型都是错误的,但我们会接受其中的一些模型是有用的,这意味着我们要决定哪些种类的不肯定的证据不会被太认真对待. |
| 106 | And the most famous example in economics of disqualifying entire classes of evidence comes from the Nobel laureate Milton Friedman. | 而经济学中取消所有类别证据资格的最著名的例子是诺贝尔奖得主米尔顿·弗里德曼. |
| 107 | Friedman told a famous or infamous parable about modeling the shots of an expert billiards player. | 弗里德曼向一个著名的或臭名昭著的比喻讲述了制作一名专家台球运动员的镜头. |
| 108 | He said that the best model for predicting these shots assumes that the expert billiards player knows the laws of physics and chooses his shots accordingly. | 他说,预测这些镜头的最佳模式是假设专家台球手知道物理定律,并据此选择他的镜头. |
| 109 | But Friedman wrote, the billiards player, if you ask him, how do you decide where to hit the ball, may say that he just figures it out, but then also rubs a rabbit's foot just to make sure. | 但是弗里德曼写道, 台球运动员,如果你问他,你怎么决定打球地点, 可能说,他只是想清楚了, 但也擦一只兔子的脚,只是为了确定。 |
| 110 | So according to Friedman, it's actually useless to ask people how they make economic decisions. | 因此,根据弗里德曼的说法,询问人们如何做出经济决策实际上毫无用处. |
| 111 | What they say has no value as evidence for evaluating our theories. | 他们说的话对评价我们的理论毫无价值 |
| 112 | The only evidence that matters is actions and how well our theories predict those actions. | 唯一重要的证据是行动,以及我们的理论对这些行动的预测。 |
| 113 | So within any discipline, economics, sociology, chemistry, medicine, there are norms that have been established about which models aren't too wrong, which models are useful enough, and what types of evidence have value. | 因此,在任何学科,经济学,社会学,化学,医学中,都有既定的规范,关于哪些模型并不太错误,哪些模型足够有用,哪些类型的证据有价值. |
| 114 | And this is why interdisciplinary research is so hard. | 这就是为什么跨学科研究如此艰难。 |
| 115 | Economists and sociologists, we study a lot of the same phenomena. | 经济学家和社会学家,我们研究了许多相同的现象. |
| 116 | If you try to get an economist and sociologist to work together on a research project, chances are that they won't get very far because they just can't agree on these basic ground level questions. | 如果你试图让经济学家和社会学家 一起研究一个研究项目, 他们可能不会走得很远, 因为他们无法就这些基本的地面问题达成一致。 |
| 117 | What kinds of wrongness are they willing to tolerate? | 他们愿意容忍什么样的错误? |
| 118 | What dimensions of usefulness are really valuable and what kinds of evidence should be paid attention to? | 哪些层面的有用性是真正有价值的,应该注意何种证据? |
| 119 | What kinds of evidence should be ignored? | 什么样的证据应该被忽略? |
| 120 | All models are useful or wrong, but some are useful. | 所有模型都是有用或错误的,但有些是有用的. |
| 121 | The problem is that as experts spend more time in their field, they forget the first part of the sentence. | 问题在于随着专家在他们的领域花费更多的时间,他们忘记了句子的第一部分. |
| 122 | The models they're using are actually wrong. | 他们使用的模型其实是错误的. |
| 123 | Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. | 菲利普·特特洛克是宾夕法尼亚大学的教授. |
| 124 | He received his PhD in psychology from Yale back in 1979. | 1979年他从耶鲁大学获得心理学博士学位. |
| 125 | He is one of the greatest social scientists of our era. | 他是我们时代最伟大的社会科学家之一。 |
| 126 | Tetlock has spent decades studying the ability to predict the future. | 特特洛克花了几十年时间研究预测未来的能力. |
| 127 | 他最近出版了一本名为"超级预测"(Super Prespecting)的书,即"预测的艺术与科学"(The Arts and Science of Prespecture),其中总结了他一生的这一作品. | |
| 128 | And my thinking has been deeply influenced by this book, so I highly recommend it. | 我的思想受到这本书的深刻影响,所以我极力推荐. |
| 129 | One of the main ways Tetlock studied the ability to forecast the future was by running forecasting contests. | Tetlock研究预测未来能力的主要方法之一是运行预测比赛. |
| 130 | He would ask contestants to make predictions about really difficult things like, | 他会要求参赛者预测一些非常困难的事情 比如 |
| 131 | Will Serbia be officially granted European Union candidacy by December 31, 2011? | 塞尔维亚是否会在2011年12月31日前正式获得欧洲联盟候选资格?. |
| 132 | Will either the French or Swiss inquiries find elevated levels of polonium in the remains of Yasser Arafat's body? | 法国或瑞士的调查是否会发现亚西尔·阿拉法特遗体中的波罗蜜含量升高? |
| 133 | Will the London gold market fixing price of gold exceed US$1,850 on September 30, 2011? | 2011年9月30日伦敦黄金市场确定黄金价格会超过1,850美元吗?. |
| 134 | What Tetlock found was that some people are persistently better forecasters than others. | 泰特洛克发现,有些人总是比其他人更能预测。 |
| 135 | And shockingly, subject matter experts are not particularly good at forecasting in their own area of expertise. | 令人震惊的是,专题专家在自己的专业领域并不特别擅长预测。 |
| 136 | Tetlock writes that the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart throwing chimpanzee in his or her own area of expertise. | Tetlock写道,一般专家的准确性大致相当于在自己的专业领域投掷黑猩猩的飞镖。 |
| 137 | In fact, the contestants who are really good at forecasting, he calls them super forecasters, | 事实上,那些真正擅长预测的参赛者 他称他们为超级预测者 |
| 138 | are better at predicting the future than experts in their own domain of expertise. | 比专家在自己的专长领域更能预测未来。 |
| 139 | Why are some people better forecasters than others? | 为什么有些人比其他人更能预测呢? |
| 140 | And why are experts so bad at forecasting in their own domain of expertise? | 为什么专家在自己的专业领域 如此糟糕的预测呢? |
| 141 | Tetlock found that there are actually two approaches to forecasting by thinking about the world, two types of forecasters. | 特特洛克发现,实际上有两种通过思考世界来预测的方法,两种预测方法. |
| 142 | He labels them foxes and hedgehogs, inspired by a line written by the ancient Greek poet, | 他给他们贴上狐狸和刺猬的标签 灵感来源于古希腊诗人写的一句台词 |
| 143 | Archaeologist, who wrote, the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. | 考古学家,他写道,狐狸知道很多事,但刺客知道一件大事. |
| 144 | The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. | 狐狸知道很多事 但刺客知道一件大事 |
| 145 | Hedgehog forecasters know one big thing. | 海奇霍格预测员知道一件大事 |
| 146 | They have one grand theory that informs all that they do and say. | 他们有一个伟大的理论 告诉所有他们做的和说。 |
| 147 | Foxes know many little things. | 狐狸们知道很多小事 |
| 148 | They draw from many sources of information and they combine many sources into a single conclusion. | 它们来自许多信息来源,并将许多来源合并为一个结论。 |
| 149 | They're less confident. | 他们没有那么自信 |
| 150 | They're less likely to say something is certain or impossible. | 他们不太可能说某些事情是肯定的或不可能的. |
| 151 | It turns out the foxes are superior forecasters and experts are bad at forecasting because they tend to be hedgehogs. | 原来狐狸是优异的预报员,专家对预报很不擅长,因为他们往往是刺猬. |
| 152 | They forget that their own grand theory is actually wrong. | 他们忘记了他们自己的宏伟理论其实是错误的. |
| 153 | So they ignore all the other approaches to knowledge, all the other opinions, all the other sources of information outside of their discipline when making forecasts. | 所以他们忽略了其他所有的知识方法,所有其他意见,在预测时忽略了他们学科以外的所有其他信息来源. |
| 154 | Let me illustrate how hedgehogs go astray and how foxes do better in a financial domain, predicting the stock market's return, which, of course, everybody is kind of interested in. | 让我来说明刺客是如何误入歧途的, 以及狐狸如何在金融领域做得更好, 预测股票市场的回报, 当然, 每个人都对这感兴趣。 |
| 155 | This is a study that was published by David Raypatch, Jack Strauss, and Guofu Zhou in 2010. | 本研究由大卫·雷帕奇,杰克·施特劳斯和郭福周于2010年出版. |
| 156 | They take 15 variables that have been proposed in the academic literature as being potential predictors of future stock market returns. | 它们采用学术文献中提议的15个变量作为未来股票市场收益的潜在预测者。 |
| 157 | They form forecasts of the following form. | 它们构成以下形式的预测。 |
| 158 | The return in quarter T plus one will be some constant A plus a constant B times the value of the predictor variable in the prior quarter T. | 季度 T + 1 的返回将是一些常数 A + 上季度 T 预测变量值的常数 B 倍. |
| 159 | Now, they form these forecasts using only historical data up to dates T. | 现在,它们仅使用历史数据来形成这些预测,直到T. |
| 160 | So let's just illustrate what they're doing here. | 所以让我们来说明他们在这里做什么。 |
| 161 | Suppose they're studying some predictor X, and the first thing they're going to try to do is to predict the stock market's return in the first quarter of 1965, using the value of X in the fourth quarter of 1964. | 假设他们正在研究一些预测器X,他们首先要做的是预测股票市场在1965年第一季度的回报,在1964年第四季度使用X的值. |
| 162 | They have data going back to 1947, and so what information would an investor who actually was living in the fourth quarter of 1964 have? | 他们的数据可以追溯到1947年, 那么一个1964年第四季度的投资者会有什么信息? |
| 163 | Well, that investor would only have data from 1947 to 1964. | 那个投资者只有1947年到1964年的数据 |
| 164 | That investor would not have data from future years. | 该投资者将没有未来年份的数据。 |
| 165 | So the authors find the values of A and B in this equation that produce the smallest deviations from actual terms of the data from 1947 to 1964. | 因此,作者在这个方程式中发现了A和B的数值,这些数值产生了1947年至1964年数据实际值的最小偏差. |
| 166 | So then they use these values of A and B to predict the 1965 first quarter return of the stock market. | 于是他们用A和B的这些值来预测1965年股市第一季度的回报. |
| 167 | Okay, so they'll make a guess, and then, you know, of course, the guess won't be perfect, so there's going to be some error to that guess. | 好吧,所以他们会做出一个猜测, 然后,你知道,当然,这个猜测不会是完美的, 所以这个猜测会有一些错误。 |
| 168 | Now they try again to predict the stock market's return, but in the following quarters, they'll try to predict the stock market's return in the second quarter of 1965 and now using the value of X in the first quarter of 1965. | 现在他们再次尝试预测股票市场的回报,但在接下来的几个季度,他们会尝试预测1965年第二季度股票市场的回报,现在在1965年第一季度使用X的值. |
| 169 | But now an investor who was actually alive in the first quarter of 1965 has data from 1947 up to the first quarter of 1965. | 但是,现在一个在1965年第一季度实际活着的投资者,有1947年至1965年第一季度的数据. |
| 170 | So they're going to estimate new values of A and B and taking into account this additional data that the investor at that time would have had access to. | 因此,他们将估算A和B的新值,并考虑到当时投资者本可以获取的这一额外数据. |
| 171 | And so they keep on repeating this procedure for every quarter until the end of their data in 2005. | 因此,他们每个季度都不断重复这一程序,直到2005年数据结束。 |
| 172 | So this is mimicking the experience of an investor who's trying to make investment decisions in real time using the historical evidence that is available to that investor. | 因此这模仿了投资者的经验,他试图利用投资者所掌握的历史证据实时做出投资决定. |
| 173 | So this is, you know, just, you know, a little bit sophisticated, not very sophisticated. | 这是,你知道,只是,你知道, 有点复杂,不是非常复杂。 |
| 174 | Let's think about, you know, the simplest, dumbest way you could go about trying to predict the stock market's return, which is I'm sitting today and my guess for next quarter stock market return is just the average return that the stock market has histor | 让我们来想想,你知道, 你可能走的最简单,最笨的方法 试图预测股票市场的收益, 这就是我今天坐在这里,我的猜测 下一季度的股票市场收益 只是股票市场 历史上经历的平均收益,直到今天。 |
| 175 | So that's my dumb, low IQ way of predicting the stock market's return. | 这就是我低智商 预测股票市场回报的方法 |
| 176 | The finding is that none of the 15 variables that have been proposed up to the point where this study was published outperforms the guess that is just the historical stock market average return. | 调查结果是,截至本研究发表之前提出的15个变量中,没有一个变量能比以往股票市场平均回报率高。 |
| 177 | So predicting the stock market's return is really hard. | 因此,预测股票市场的回报确实很难. |
| 178 | But you take each of those 15 predictions, and you take the average of those predictions, the average actually does better than any of those individual predictions, and it does better than simply guessing the historical average return of the stock market. | 但是,你拿这15个预测中的每一个, 你拿这些预测的平均值, 平均数实际上比这些单个预测中的任何一个都好, 它比简单的猜测股票市场的历史平均回报要好。 |
| 179 | So this is kind of a fox's approach to predicting the stock market going forward. | 这就是狐狸预测股票市场前进的方法。 |
| 180 | Why does this average of the 15 predictors do such a good job of predicting next quarter stock market return? | 为什么15个预测者中的这个平均数能很好地预测下一季度的股票市场回报呢? |
| 181 | I think it's illuminating to see what the individual predictions look like over time. | 我认为,看到个别预测在一段时间内是什么样子,是很有启发性的。 |
| 182 | So what you have here is 15 different graphs, and each of the graphs shows you over time, what do these particular predictors say that the stock market's return in the next quarter is going to be? | 所以,你这里有15个不同的图表, 每个图表都显示,随着时间的推移, 这些特定的预测者说, 股票市场在下一季度的回报会是什么呢? |
| 183 | And, you know, it's not really important what these particular variables are for the purposes of this talk, but I want to point out is that there's a lot of volatility in these predictions. | 而且,你知道,这些特定的变量对于这个演讲的目的并不重要, 但我要指出的是,这些预测中有很多波动。 |
| 184 | So, you know, you take a look at this one, for example, you know, the prediction is kind of all over the place and moves around a lot. | 所以,你知道,你看看这个, 比如,你知道, 预测是有点 各地,移动了很多。 |
| 185 | Well, the stock market's return is really hard to predict. | 股市的回报很难预测 |
| 186 | So if you make a really extreme prediction, or if the statistical model makes a really extreme prediction, what that essentially is the very confident prediction that the stock market's return is going to deviate from its historical meaning. | 所以,如果你做了一个非常极端的预测, 或者如果统计模型做了非常极端的预测, 基本上,这是非常自信的预测, 股票市场的回报将偏离它的历史意义。 |
| 187 | And because the stock market's return is hard to predict, you can tend to have a lot of really big misses if your predictions are moving around extremely over time. | 而且由于股市的回报很难预测, 如果你的预测会随着时间推移而变化, 你可能会有很多非常大的错失。 |
| 188 | Now, in contrast, the forecast that averages together the 15 individual forecasts is pretty smooth, and that smoothness helps its forecasting performance. | 相比之下,15个个别预测的平均值 相当平稳, 平滑有助于预测性能。 |
| 189 | The Fox acknowledges that there is a lot of uncertainty in the world, so it tends not to make very confident extreme predictions. | 狐狸承认世界上有很多不确定因素,因此往往不会做出非常自信的极端预测. |
| 190 | There is an easy way to misinterpret what I have just shown you. | 很容易误解我刚才向你们展示的内容。 |
| 191 | So the wrong lesson to take away from this is the following, that you should create a more complicated model that includes all 15 predicted variables simultaneously. | 因此,从中吸取错误的教训是, 你应当创建一个更复杂的模型, 同时包括所有15个预测变量。 |
| 192 | In other words, look at the historical data up to today and find the values of B1, B2, you know, B3 all the way to B15 that create the best historical fit between quarter T plus one return and a weighted sum of all 15 predictors. | 换句话说,看看直到今天的历史数据,找到B1,B2的数值,你知道,B3一路到B15,在四分之一T+一个返回和所有15个预测器的加权总和之间创造了最好的历史合力. |
| 193 | And then use this estimator relationship to predict next quarter stock market return. | 然后用这种估计关系来预测下一季度的股市回报. |
| 194 | This complicated model turns out to have the worst predictive performance of all the models that are tested. | 这个复杂的模型对被测试的所有模型的预测性能最差. |
| 195 | And you can see why in this graph, that dashed line shows that the complicated model generates really, really volatile forecasts. | 你可以看到为什么这个图中,那条破折的线显示, 复杂的模型会产生非常,非常不稳定的预测。 |
| 196 | And what's going wrong here is that you gave the model a lot of flexibility to fit the historical data. | 问题在于 你给了模型很多灵活性 以适应历史数据 |
| 197 | It had 15 different levers that it could pull in order to match the predict the historical data really, really closely. | 它有15个不同的杠杆, 它可以拉动,以便匹配 预测的历史数据 非常,非常紧密。 |
| 198 | And so what the model ends up doing is it mistakenly thinks that random unpredictable noise in the historical data was in fact predictable using that combination of 15 predictor variables. | 模型最后所做的是 它错误地认为 历史数据中随机的不可预测的噪音 实际上是可以预测的 使用15个预测变量的组合。 |
| 199 | When in fact the noise and the predictor variable sometimes moved in the same direction only by chance. | 事实上,噪音和预测变量有时只是偶然地朝同一方向移动。 |
| 200 | So you're fitting the noise in the data and noise doesn't kind of repeat from from period to period. | 数据中的噪音不会从一个时期重复。 |
| 201 | And so this is a graph where it's clear that there is a linear relationship between the horizontal axis variable and the vertical axis variable. | 因此,这是一张图表,其中清楚显示,水平轴变量和垂直轴变量之间存在着线性关系. |
| 202 | So basically, it's kind of this linear relationship between the Y axis and the X axis. | 所以基本上,它是一种Y轴和X轴之间的线性关系. |
| 203 | But then there is some random deviations from that linear relationship. | 但也有一些与线性关系的随机偏差. |
| 204 | But if you give the model a lot of flexibility to fit the data, then indeed the model is going to fit that data perfectly. | 但如果你给模型很多灵活性来适应数据, 那么模型确实会完全适应数据。 |
| 205 | So that blue line that you see runs through every single one of those data points in the historical data perfectly. | 因此,你看到的蓝线 完美地贯穿了历史数据中的每一个数据点。 |
| 206 | It just goes right through. | 它只是通过正确的。 |
| 207 | But now if you try to predict the future using this complicated model, you'll end up making kind of some crazy predictions because the model has overfit the data. | 但是现在如果你试图用这个复杂的模型来预测未来, 你最后会做出一些疯狂的预测, 因为模型已经过度匹配了数据。 |
| 208 | It has fit the noise and that noise is not representative of what's going to happen in the future. | 它符合噪音 并且噪音不能代表未来会发生什么 |
| 209 | What you should have done is just used the simple linear model and predicted using that simple model instead of the complicated model. | 你应该做的只是使用简单的线性模型, 并使用简单的模型而不是复杂的模型来预测。 |
| 210 | Now, an economist who wants to be a fox when thinking about economics should listen to what non-economists have to say about economics. | 现在,一个经济学家在考虑经济学时想当狐狸,应该听非经济学家对经济学所说的话. |
| 211 | And so that's what I was trying to do when I read those popular personal finance books. | 所以我在读那些流行的个人金融书籍时就想这么做。 |
| 212 | So what did I learn? | 我学到了什么? |
| 213 | I learned that popular authors often give advice that is very different from what economists advise. | 我了解到,受欢迎的作者往往给出的建议与经济学家的建议大不相同. |
| 214 | And the most important difference arises, I think, because when economists create theories about what's the right thing to do with your money is, | 我认为,最重要的区别在于 当经济学家创造出关于你钱的正确之处的理论时 |
| 215 | we assume that you have perfect discipline, that you have no problem sticking with a plan and executing it. | 我们假设你有完美的纪律, 你没有问题坚持一个计划 执行它。 |
| 216 | If economists were giving diet and exercise advice, it's like our entire research enterprise is only producing advice on how Olympic athletes should eat and train. | 如果经济学家们在提供饮食和锻炼建议, 就像我们整个研究企业 只是在制作关于奥林匹克运动员应该如何吃东西和训练的建议。 |
| 217 | But, you know, most people aren't Olympic athletes. | 但是,你知道,大多数人不是奥林匹克运动员。 |
| 218 | They don't have the willpower and the dedication that Olympic athletes have. | 他们没有奥林匹克运动员的意志力和献身精神. |
| 219 | They aren't willing or able to make the same sacrifices as Olympic athletes. | 他们不愿意或不能做出与奥林匹克运动员相同的牺牲. |
| 220 | In fact, even the actor Dwayne Johnson, also known as The Rock, he is famous worldwide for his muscular physique. | 事实上,即使是演员杜恩·约翰逊(Dwayne Johnson,又称The Rock),他也是以肌肉的体质闻名于世. |
| 221 | He says that he needs to have his cheat meals, wildly unhealthy meals where he doesn't have to control his eating. | 他说,他需要吃他的欺骗性餐, 疯狂的不健康餐 他不必控制他的饮食。 |
| 222 | Why are the cheat meals so essential? | 为什么欺骗餐这么重要? |
| 223 | It's so that he can maintain his discipline for all of the other meals that he eats. | 令他能持戒供养一切他所食饮食. |
| 224 | So he says, you know, for me, the cheat meals, it's like you work out hard and once a week you treat yourself. | 所以他说,你知道,对我来说, 欺骗性餐, 它就像你努力工作 和每周一次你对待自己。 |
| 225 | So in personal finance, what are the cheat meal equivalents that enable ordinary people to stick to a plan and actually have some scientific evidence that backs up their efficacy? | 因此,在个人财务方面,什么是欺骗餐等效物, 使普通人能够坚持一个计划, 并且实际上有一些科学证据来支持他们的功效? |
| 226 | Economists just aren't researching this at all. | 经济学家根本没研究这个问题。 |
| 227 | Recently, I was interviewed for one of those podcasts about my paper on popular personal finance. | 最近,我接受了采访 其中一个播客 关于我的论文 关于流行的个人金融。 |
| 228 | And the podcast also interviewed this guy, Morgan Housel. | 而播客也采访了这个人,摩根·豪斯. |
| 229 | He is the author of the bestselling book, The Psychology of Money. | 他是畅销书《金钱心理学》的作者。 |
| 230 | Now, remember at the beginning of this talk, I remember that this guy, Dave Ramsey, is one of the most popular providers of personal financial advice in the U.S. | 现在,记住,在这个演讲的开头, 我记得这个家伙,戴夫·拉姆齐, 是美国最受欢迎的个人财务建议提供者之一。 |
| 231 | It turned out that Dave Ramsey gives a lot of advice that economists would totally disagree with. | 结果发现戴夫·拉姆齐给出了很多经济学家会完全不同意的建议. |
| 232 | But Morgan Housel said, how many people has Dave Ramsey helped out of debt versus the average academic economist? | 但摩根·豪斯尔说,戴夫·拉姆齐(Dave Ramsey)从债务中帮助了多少人,而不是一般的学术经济学家? |
| 233 | It's a million to one. | 一百万为一. |
| 234 | And you know what? | 你知道吗? |
| 235 | He is absolutely right. | 他说得对 |
| 236 | Imagine, you know, if doctors gave no diet recommendations for people who were struggling with their body weight. | 想象一下,如果医生不给那些 身体体重困难的人任何饮食建议的话。 |
| 237 | So the only diet advice that was available in the world for such people who are struggling with their weight came from TV and radio show hosts, popular book authors and social media influencers. | 因此,世界上唯一能为那些在体重上挣扎的人提供饮食建议的是电视和电台节目主持人、流行的书作家和社交媒体影响者。 |
| 238 | That's kind of the situation we're in right now with personal finance advice. | 这就是我们现在遇到的 个人财务建议的情况 |
| 239 | The economists are just missing from the scene. | 经济学家从现场失踪了 |
| 240 | So the only place people who are having trouble with their personal finances can get advice from is the non-economists. | 因此,个人财务有困难的人只能从非经济学家那里得到建议。 |
| 241 | By reading non-economist financial advice, I learned that economists should devote more energy to learning what motivates people to stick to a financial plan. | 通过阅读非经济主义的金融建议, 我了解到经济学家应该投入更多的精力 来学习什么激励人们坚持金融计划。 |
| 242 | I learned that we should think harder about how financial plans should be adapted in light of the fact that people have limited motivation. | 我了解到,鉴于人们的积极性有限,我们应该更仔细地考虑如何调整财政计划。 |
| 243 | I learned that popular authors commonly believe that good financial behaviors are built up through habit and practice, like the virtue. | 我了解到,受欢迎的作者通常认为,良好的金融行为是通过习惯和实践积累起来的,比如美德. |
| 244 | So if you are going to be a saver someday, you have to start saving today. | 所以如果你有一天要成为拯救者, 你必须从今天开始储蓄。 |
| 245 | You can't just not save for a while and then suddenly expect to be able to save a lot of money in the future. | 你不能只是不储蓄一段时间,然后突然期望将来能够节省很多钱. |
| 246 | Now, is that true? | 是真的吗? |
| 247 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 248 | But maybe economists should be testing whether that's true or not. | 但也许经济学家应该测试这是否属实。 |
| 249 | And if it is true that saving or investing is like a virtue, then how does that change the advice that economists give about how you should save and invest over the course of your life? | 如果说储蓄或投资确实是一种美德,那这又如何改变经济学家对你一生应该如何储蓄和投资的建议呢? |
| 250 | All models are wrong, but some are useful. | 所有模型都是错误的,但有些是有用的. |
| 251 | The world is too complicated to understand without simplified models, so we need to tolerate wrongness in our models to make progress. | 世界过于复杂,没有简化的模型无法理解,所以我们需要容忍我们模型的错误,以取得进展. |
| 252 | But we should never forget that the model we are using to interpret the world is actually wrong. | 但我们永远不要忘记,我们用来解释世界的模式其实是错误的。 |
| 253 | So we should be like the fox, periodically look up and incorporate information and opinions from other approaches to knowledge, because being like the hedgehog and using only one single grand theory of everything is going to cause us to perform poorly. | 因此,我们应该像狐狸一样, 定期检查并吸收来自其他知识方法的信息和意见, 因为像刺客一样, 并且只使用一个宏大的理论, 将会导致我们表现不佳。 |
| 254 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 255 | Wow, that was so interesting. | 哇,这太有趣了。 |
| 256 | And I think people were shy about punching in questions in the chat box. | 我想人们很害羞在聊天箱里打问题。 |
| 257 | So I will start by asking some questions. | 因此,我首先提出一些问题。 |
| 258 | And for those of you who would like to ask Professor Choi questions, please feel free to type them in the chat box. | 对于想问崔教授问题的人,请随意在聊天盒里打字. |
| 259 | Now I was struck by many slides and many of the ideas you shared, including from the beginning, knowledge creation as a social process. | 现在,我被许多幻灯片和许多你分享的想法所震撼, 包括从一开始,知识创造作为一个社会进程。 |
| 260 | So I'm curious to know if in your research and what you've come across in academia, in terms of studies on, let's say, asset prices or stock prices, has it become or has it always been a social process with the meme stocks and, you know, all the things th | 所以,我很想知道,在你的研究中, 以及在学术界你遇到什么, 比如说,关于资产价格或股票价格的研究, 它是否成为或一直是与meme股票有关的社会进程, 以及,你知道,所有正在发生的事情, 最近引起了媒体的关注? |
| 261 | Yeah, I think certainly it's been a social process and there are, you know, I kind of talk about the mating dance. | 是的,我想这肯定是一个社交过程 而且,你知道,我谈论交配舞。 |
| 262 | So, you know, you watch nature documentaries and when birds are mating, the male bird has to do a certain elaborate dance, pre-specified dance, so that the female will be willing to mate with the male bird. | 所以,你知道,你看自然纪录片 当鸟儿交配时,雄鸟必须进行某种精心精心的舞蹈,预先规定的舞蹈,这样雌鸟才会愿意与雄鸟交配. |
| 263 | And so similarly in asset pricing research, for example, there are certain types of questions where if you want to convince your audience that your approach is correct, you have to do your own mating dance, where the steps are actually quite pre-specified | 例如,在资产定价研究中, 也存在某些类型的问题, 如果你想让观众相信 你的方法是正确的, 你必须跳自己的交配舞, 舞步其实是预先规定的。 |
| 264 | And you have to do all the steps correctly in order for the reader or the audience to think, okay, this person is legitimate, they're doing all the right things. | 你必须正确地做所有的步骤, 以便读者或观众思考, 好吧,这个人是合法的,他们在做所有正确的事情。 |
| 265 | And in fact, many of the steps are actually quite arbitrary and they were established because some famous old guys long ago decided to do it this way. | 事实上,许多步骤都是很武断的, 之所以设立这些步骤,是因为一些著名的老家伙 早就决定这样做了。 |
| 266 | And so then the papers will lean on the authority and say, well, just like we follow so-and-so and we do this and we adopt these procedures because this famous paper did that. | 因此,文件会靠着权威说,就像我们遵循这样,我们这样做,我们通过这些程序,因为这份著名的文件做到了这一点。 |
| 267 | And, you know, it's really just an accident of history and there's no particular reason why you necessarily had to do it in that way. | 而且,你知道,这真的只是一个历史的意外, 没有特别的理由,为什么你一定要这样做。 |
| 268 | And then, you know, there are all sorts of reasons why those approaches, we know that those approaches are flawed, that they have blind spots. | 然后,你知道,有各种各样的原因, 这些方法,我们知道 这些方法有缺陷, 它们有盲点。 |
| 269 | And again, we have collectively agreed to ignore those deficiencies because, again, you can just derail the entire paper, the entire seminar presentation by asking very, very basic questions, making very, very basic objections. | 同样,我们集体同意忽略这些缺陷,因为,再次,你可以通过提出非常,非常基本的问题,提出非常,非常基本的反对,来破坏整个文件,整个研讨会的发言。 |
| 270 | And so indeed, I think that there is a very social process. | 因此,我认为这是一个非常社会的过程。 |
| 271 | And, you know, for a long time, the notion that markets are efficient, that prices are, on average, correct for all securities was kind of the accepted dogma in the academic finance research profession. | 在很长一段时间里,市场是有效的, 平均来说,所有证券的价格是正确的, 这是一种学术金融研究行业中公认的教条。 |
| 272 | And so it was very difficult to publish papers that said, you know, this security is underpriced. | 所以很难发表论文, 说,你知道,这个安全是低价的。 |
| 273 | And so you can get a particularly good return by investing in this type of security. | 这样你就可以通过投资这种安全 获得特别高的回报。 |
| 274 | No, no, no, you're not allowed to say that. | 不,不,不,你不能这么说。 |
| 275 | What you have to say is, oh, there must be something particularly risky about these securities such that, on average, they have high prices. | 你不得不说,哦,这些证券一定有特别危险的东西, 平均来说,它们的价格很高。 |
| 276 | But of course, that doesn't mean that these securities are good deals, just means that they're secretly risky. | 但是,当然,这并不意味着这些证券是好的交易,只是意味着它们有秘密的风险. |
| 277 | And over time, that thinking was able to be shifted, but it took a long time. | 随着时间的推移,这种想法得以转变,但需要很长时间。 |
| 278 | And I think it was a social process. | 我认为这是一个社会进程。 |
| 279 | And now I think it's much more acceptable to write papers that are along those lines. | 现在我觉得写出符合这些思路的论文更可以接受. |
| 280 | And so absolutely, it is a social process, just like any other field of human inquiry. | 绝对,这是一个社会过程, 就像人类调查的其他领域一样。 |
| 281 | We have an interesting question from the audience asking, is your talk kind of, I guess, a snapshot of what behavioral economics the field is about? | 我们有一个有趣的问题 从观众问, 您的谈话类型, 我想, 简略地说, 什么行为经济学领域是什么? |
| 282 | I think so. | 我想是这样。 |
| 283 | I mean, I think that there is this, so there are, you know, let's talk about my talk and then let's talk about the paper that kind of was the inspiration for the rest of the talk. | 我的意思是,我认为这是, 所以有,你知道, 让我们谈谈我的谈话, 然后让我们谈谈论文, 那种是启发 其他的谈话。 |
| 284 | So I think that the kind of social aspect of knowledge creation, I think that there is very much a behavioral economics component to it, because if we were all perfectly rational and infinitely sophisticated, we wouldn't have to make these shortcuts to ac | 所以,我认为知识创造的社会方面, 我认为它有很多行为经济学的成分, 因为如果我们都是完全理性的和无限精密的, 我们不需要做这些捷径来接受我们模型中的错误, 模型就非常简单。 |
| 285 | We would just know how the world is actually structured and we would make predictions and form theories along those lines. | 我们只知道世界是如何结构化的, 我们会按照这些思路作出预测和形成理论。 |
| 286 | And so I think that there is an aspect of that. | 因此,我认为,这有一个方面。 |
| 287 | And then, you know, kind of the deference to authority and if the authority leaders of a particular discipline are mistaken, then the entire field can kind of go in the wrong direction for a couple of decades. | 然后,你知道,一种对权威的敬重, 如果某个学科的权威领袖被误解了, 那么整个领域可以朝着错误的方向走几十年。 |
| 288 | And I think there, you know, economists have studied herd behavior, where if the first mover in a sequence of movers goes in the wrong direction, everybody just follows that person, you know, assuming that the first mover had some special information. | 我想在那里,经济学家们研究了群群行为, 如果移动者序列中的第一个移动者走错了方向, 每个人都跟着那个人, 你知道,假设第一个移动者有一些特殊的信息。 |
| 289 | So, you know, and of course there's a lot of application there to stock prices and, you know, you see the stock has, the stock has risen a lot. | 所以,你知道,当然有很多应用 股票价格, 你知道,你看股票已经,股票已经上升了很多。 |
| 290 | Oh, you know, it must be a good investment. | 哦,你知道,这一定是个很好的投资。 |
| 291 | And it just turned out that it went up for random reason, but now you got a big herd of people kind of going into the stock and, you know, kind of pushing it up and causing it to be overvalued, for example. | 结果发现,它只是随机而起, 但是现在你得到了一大群人 进入股票,你知道, 一种推它, 并导致它被高估,例如。 |
| 292 | So that's kind of on the knowledge creation portion. | 这就是知识创造的部分。 |
| 293 | And then I think on the kind of the personal finance portion, absolutely, I think that one, you know, so I am a behavioral economist. | 然后我想到个人财务部分, 当然,我认为,一个,你知道的, 所以我是一个行为经济学家。 |
| 294 | A lot of my research has been on dumb things people do with their money. | 我的很多研究都是关于人们用钱做的蠢事. |
| 295 | And there are particular biases that have kind of been studied for decades now. | 几十年来,人们一直在研究一些特别的偏见。 |
| 296 | And so we, even behavioral economists, we tend to fixate on a particular set of biases because these are the biases that became famous in the 1970s and 1980s. | 因此,我们,即使是行为经济学家, 也倾向于坚持一种特定的偏差, 因为这些偏差在20世纪70年代和80年代就成名了。 |
| 297 | And so when we see new phenomena, we were always kind of referring back to those types of biases. | 因此,当我们看到新的现象时, 我们总是提到这些类型的偏见。 |
| 298 | What I found relatively new when I read these popular books is that they were referring to a whole other set of human weaknesses that behavioral economics frankly has not thought a lot about. | 我读到这些流行书籍时发现的 比较新的是,它们指的是 一整套其他的人类弱点, 老实说,行为经济学没有怎么思考。 |
| 299 | So, you know, I get discouraged from pursuing my financial goals because I have a temporary setback, right? | 所以,你知道,我被劝阻 追求我的财务目标 因为我有一个暂时的挫折,对不对? |
| 300 | I broke a personal rule that I had for myself. | 我打破了我自己的私人规则 |
| 301 | And so now my entire debt repayment plan, I end up abandoning it. | 因此,现在我的整个还债计划, 我最终放弃了它。 |
| 302 | So these kind of motivational factors is not something that behavioral economists have historically thought a lot about. | 因此,这些激励因素并不是行为经济学家在历史上已经思考过很多的事情. |
| 303 | People, you know, some of these books say you should not invest 100% of your portfolio in the stock market because you cannot psychologically handle the risks that are associated with 100% stock allocation. | 人们,你知道,其中一些书说,你不应该在股票市场上投资100%的股票投资,因为你无法从心理上处理与100%股票分配相关的风险. |
| 304 | And, you know, this is actually a fairly different approach than behavioral economics has taken where, you know, we don't really haven't historically thought a lot about people just getting scared and discouraged from their investing plan when they experi | 实际上,这和行为经济学的方法是完全不同的, 你知道,我们并没有在历史上 经常想到人们在经历暂时的挫折时 害怕和沮丧于投资计划。 |
| 305 | We talk about loss aversion and, oh yeah, we don't like it when we lose money, we dislike losses more than we like gains, that sort of thing. | 我们谈论的是损失厌恶, 哦,是的,我们不喜欢它 当我们失去钱, 我们不喜欢损失 比我们喜欢的收益,那种事情。 |
| 306 | But it's not a very emotional, motivational approach to the way we think about personal investing, personal financial decisions. | 但是,对于我们看待个人投资,个人财务决策的方式,这不是一个非常情绪化,激励性的方法. |
| 307 | And so absolutely, I think there's a behavioral economics angle to the approach that I discovered in these popular personal finance books, but really a different flavor than what we behavioral economists have been obsessing over for the last 40 or so year | 所以绝对的,我认为我从行为经济学的角度 来看待我在这些流行的个人金融书籍中发现的方法, 但其实与我们的行为经济学家在过去40年左右里 一直沉迷于的行为经济学的味道不同。 |
| 308 | I see there's a hand. | 我看见有一只手。 |
| 309 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 310 | Thanks for the answer. | 谢谢你的回答 |
| 311 | I see that Fang Liu has her hand up so I'm going to unmute her to ask the question. | 我看见方刘举起手来,要揭开她的手,让她问问题. |
| 312 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 313 | Yeah, thank you so much. | 是的,非常感谢。 |
| 314 | And thank you, Professor Choi. | 谢谢你 崔教授 |
| 315 | This is Fang from Yale School of Management and just graduated in May, so what you are sharing tonight just make me feel back, go back to Yale School of Management again. | 这是从耶鲁管理学院来的方,刚于5月毕业 所以今晚你分享的东西 让我感觉回到耶鲁管理学院去 |
| 316 | So I appreciate it. | 所以,我很感激。 |
| 317 | You're welcome at any time. | 随时奉请. |
| 318 | Yeah, and I also want to say that what you have shared also make me think about the behavioral economics since I also learned this class at Yale School of Management. | 是的,我还想说,你们分享的 也让我想到行为经济学 因为我也在耶鲁管理学院学过这个课程 |
| 319 | But you shared from another angle, which is really impressive. | 但你们从另一个角度分享, 这确实令人印象深刻。 |
| 320 | My question is, I'm curious, for the people who lack a professional financial background or knowledge, you know, how do they know this model works or not? | 我的问题是,我很好奇, 对于那些缺乏专业财务背景或知识的人, 你知道,他们怎么知道这个模型是否有效? |
| 321 | How do they know this model is right or not? | 他们怎么知道这个模型是否正确? |
| 322 | And how do we know, you know, in terms of investment or decision making, how can we, how the people who lack of this knowledge can take advantage of these models? | 我们如何知道,在投资或决策方面,我们如何能够知道,缺乏这种知识的人如何能够利用这些模式? |
| 323 | I think this is a really hard question in life. | 我认为这是一个很困难的问题 在生活中。 |
| 324 | So for example, I know nothing about cars. | 例如,我对汽车一无所知。 |
| 325 | So if I take my car into the mechanic, and the mechanic wants to defraud me, and so just make me do all these repairs that aren't necessary. | 如果我把车开进机械师那里 机械师想骗我 就让我做这些不需要的修理 |
| 326 | I'm just going to get defrauded because I don't know anything about cars. | 我要被骗 因为我对汽车一无所知 |
| 327 | Now similarly, for somebody who doesn't know anything about finance, how can they evaluate the financial advice that's coming to them? | 同样地,对于一个对金融一无所知的人, 他们怎么能评价他们得到的财务建议呢? |
| 328 | I think it's very, very difficult. | 我觉得这很困难 |
| 329 | And even if you try to rely upon what your friend's experience was with the financial advisor, actually that's not particularly accurate. | 即使你试图依赖 你朋友在财务顾问身上的经验, 这其实并不特别准确。 |
| 330 | So there are, you know, basically professional financial advisors are in the business of making you feel good, of making you feel confident in them, which is quite a different thing than actually giving you good advice. | 所以,有,你知道, 基本上,专业财务顾问 是在让你感觉好, 让你感到自信, 这是相当不同的事情 与实际上给你好的建议。 |
| 331 | And we see this in the medical field as well, that there are certain doctors that have very good bedside manners. | 我们从医学领域也看到, 某些医生有很好的床边礼仪。 |
| 332 | So they make you feel good as a patient, they make you feel cared for, but in fact they're giving you, you know, very poor treatment. | 因此,他们让你觉得作为一个病人是好的, 他们让你觉得被照顾, 但事实上,他们给你,你知道,非常糟糕的治疗。 |
| 333 | The correlation between these two things is very, very weak. | 这两件事的相互关系非常,非常薄弱. |
| 334 | So, you know, I think that there is, you know, no perfect substitute for having a little bit of information or learning yourself. | 所以,你知道,我认为,没有完美的替代物 来代替一点点的信息或学习自己。 |
| 335 | And then, you know, I think that when it came to these books and why did I choose the 50 most popular financial advice books, and, you know, take some of the advice actually fairly seriously is that these are books that have passed some sort of market tes | 然后,你知道,我想,当它涉及到这些书的时候, 为什么我选择了50种最受欢迎的金融建议书, 并且,你知道,一些建议实际上相当严肃的是, 这些书已经通过了某种市场测试。 |
| 336 | So, enough people found what they wrote compelling that maybe there's some truth in there and when I read these books I did think there's a lot of stuff in here that I think is just false and wrong. | 所以,足够多的人找到了他们写的东西, 令人信服的是,也许里面有些事实, 当我读到这些书的时候, 我确实认为里面有很多东西, 我认为只是错误和虚假的。 |
| 337 | But there's a kernel of truth in that, in that they are addressing a particular felt need in the population of their readers that we as economists need to take seriously. | 但有一个内核的真理, 因为他们正在解决读者中特别感到的需要, 我们经济学家需要认真对待。 |
| 338 | So, again, coming back to this example of, you know, there are certain ways economists say you should get out of debt. | 所以,再次回到这个例子, 你知道,有 某些方法经济学家说,你应该摆脱债务。 |
| 339 | So for example, concentrate on paying your highest interest rate debts first. | 所以,比如,首先集中精力支付最高利率债务。 |
| 340 | This is like kind of very basic economic advice is just, you know, you do your arithmetic and you realize that's the cheapest way to get out of debt, you pay down your highest interest rate debt first. | 这就像一种非常基本的 经济建议 只是,你知道,你做你的算术, 你意识到这是最便宜的方式 摆脱债务, |
| 341 | What a lot of these popular authors advise you to do is to pay down the debt that has the smallest balance first, even if it's not your highest interest rate debt. | 这些受欢迎的作者们建议你们做的是先还清余额最小的债务,即使这不是你们最高的利率债务. |
| 342 | They say that the reason you should do this is that if you can get a debt balance down to zero, that's going to be really motivating for you. | 他们说你这么做的原因是 如果你能把债务余额降到零 那会激励你 |
| 343 | It's like, wow, I just accomplished something. | 这就像,哇,我刚刚完成了一些事情。 |
| 344 | I feel good. | 我感觉很好。 |
| 345 | I'm making progress on my debt repayment plan and therefore that's going to allow you to continue on your debt repayment plan and finish it. | 我的债务还本付息计划有所进展 因此可以继续你的还本付息计划 完成它 |
| 346 | And so just going back to the diet analogy, the best diet is a reasonable diet that you can stick with. | 因此,回到饮食类比, 最好的饮食是一种合理的饮食, 你可以坚持。 |
| 347 | So there are perfect diets that you can't stick with. | 所以有完美的饮食,你不能坚持。 |
| 348 | Those aren't good diets. | 这些饮食不好 |
| 349 | You need a diet you can stick with. | 你需要一个饮食 你可以坚持。 |
| 350 | And so a lot of, I think, these deviations from kind of the perfect economic advice that I saw was about kind of maintaining that motivation. | 所以,我认为,这些偏离了 我所看到的完美经济建议 是关于保持这种动力的。 |
| 351 | And so I think there is something to be learned from that. | 所以我认为应该从中吸取一些教训。 |
| 352 | And so even if you're going out and you're looking for some financial advice yourself and you see there's a certain theme that kind of comes up over and over again across many different sources. | 所以,即使你出去 并且你正在寻找一些 财务建议你自己, 你可以看到有一个特定的主题 那种来来来回 在许多不同的来源。 |
| 353 | And even if that advice is technically wrong, there may be some wisdom in that that I think we can learn from. | 即使这种建议在技术上是错误的, 也可能有一些智慧, 我认为我们可以学习。 |
| 354 | That's so interesting. | 这太有趣了 |
| 355 | And thanks to Fang Liu's question. | 又谢方刘问. |
| 356 | I actually have a follow up question to her question, which is based on what you shared as the best predictor of future stock market returns is actually more an average of all the indicators rather than any of the indicators themselves. | 实际上,我还有一个问题要问她, 这个问题是基于你分享的 未来股票市场收益的最佳预测者 实际上是所有指标的平均值, 而不是任何指标本身。 |
| 357 | Do you think that was professional investing as if, you know, quant funds or hedge funds? | 你认为那是专业投资 就像,你知道,量化基金 还是对冲基金? |
| 358 | Does it work that way where models that are more complex and take into account more factors, do those models tend to do better in terms of investment returns? | 在比较复杂并考虑到更多因素的模型中,这些模型在投资回报方面是否往往做得更好? |
| 359 | So the average of everybody's investment decisions is basically the overall market, right? | 所以每个人的投资决定的平均值 基本上是整个市场,对不对? |
| 360 | And so there's a huge amount of evidence, at least in the US markets, that passive index funds that are just trying to match the overall stock markets return rather than beat the stock market returns | 至少在美国市场, 有大量证据表明 被动指数基金 只是试图匹配 整个股票市场回报 而不是击败股票市场回报 |
| 361 | can outperform 85% of the actively managed funds that are trying to beat the market. | 超过85%的积极管理资金 试图打赢市场。 |
| 362 | And of that 15% that beat the index funds, it's not the same 15% year after year, just basically it seems like it's random who ends up beating the market. | 而那15%的指数基金被击败了, 年复一年的15%是不一样的, 只是基本上它看起来是随机的,谁最终击败了市场。 |
| 363 | So absolutely, I think that's an application of or an instance of this principle that in general, the average of the predictions is the best predictor, not any individual predictor themselves. | 所以绝对,我认为这是一个应用或这个原则的例子, 一般来说,预测的平均值是最佳的预测者, 而不是任何个体的预测者。 |
| 364 | And so I think now, at least through, I think the data went up to maybe 10 years ago in the Chinese stock market, interestingly, at least until I haven't seen the most updated data, but for a long time, active investment mutual funds in the Chinese market | 所以我想,至少现在,我认为数据 在中国股市上可能10年前,有趣的是, 至少直到我还没有看到最更新的数据, 但很长一段时间, 活跃的投资共同基金在中国市场 似乎比业绩好 |
| 365 | just the passive market index. | 只是被动市场指数。 |
| 366 | And the interpretation I've seen of that is that for a long time, these professional fund managers had some privileged information about the individual companies. | 我所看到的解释是, 长期以来, 这些专业的基金经理们 有一些关于个别公司的特殊信息。 |
| 367 | And so we're able to trade profitably on that information and that privileged information access was something that would be illegal in the US market, for example. | 因此,我们能够以这种信息进行有利可图的交易, 并且特权信息获取权在美国市场是违法的。 |
| 368 | And so I don't know to what extent that is still true of the Chinese market and the Chinese mutual fund, but that is kind of an exception to what I was just telling you where for a while, at least the institutional funds in China did seem to have an infor | 所以,我不知道中国市场和中国共同基金究竟还在多大程度上是真实的, 但这只是我刚刚告诉你的例外, 至少中国的机构基金似乎有信息优势。 |
| 369 | And in fact, all the Chinese stock market is a very individual trader, retail trader driven market. | 而实际上,所有的中国股市都是一个非常个性的,零售商驱动的市场. |
| 370 | And really those retail traders seem to have been making a mistake on trading their own. | 而那些零售商似乎在自己的交易上犯了错误。 |
| 371 | They should have just given their money to a mutual fund manager in China, and they would have done substantially better. | 他们本应该把钱交给中国的一位共同基金经理,而且他们本会做得更好。 |
| 372 | Thanks for sharing that. | 谢谢大家分享 |
| 373 | How interesting. | 痷Τ届 |
| 374 | I see a question from Pan Bang Hao. | 吾见潘邦豪问之. |
| 375 | He asked, Would you like to share your experiences such as how to simplify research? | 他问,你是否愿意分享你的经验 比如如何简化研究? |
| 376 | My guess is that this is a question about kind of the topic, you know, if all models are wrong, and some are useful. | 我想这是关于这个话题的一个问题, 你知道,如果所有的模型都是错误的, 有些是有用的。 |
| 377 | Where does that point to maybe, you know, if you can elaborate on, let's say in your field, you know, how can one make research more fruitful? | 这说明,也许,你知道,如果你能详细阐述, 比如说,在你的领域,你知道,如何使研究更有成效? |
| 378 | You know, what can academics do more of to correct the issue you pointed out that, you know, you kind of just ignore the wrong models when you start discussing something or doing research on something. | 你知道,什么学者可以做更多的 纠正你指出的问题, 你知道,你只是忽略了错误的模型 当你开始讨论什么 或者做一些研究。 |
| 379 | Yeah, I'm going to defend the wrongness to a certain extent. | 是的,我要在一定程度上为错误辩护 |
| 380 | You know, we make progress in knowledge because we agree together that we're going to ignore some level of wrongness because otherwise we're just not going to be able to get beyond step one. | 我们之所以在知识方面有所进步,是因为我们一致认为,我们将忽略某种程度的错误,否则我们就无法超越第一步。 |
| 381 | And so I, you know, I am an economist, I work within the discipline of economics and finance. | 所以我,你知道,我是一个经济学家, 我在经济和金融学科中工作。 |
| 382 | And, you know, the research papers I write are not breaking radically from the mold of my discipline. | 而且,你知道,我写的研究论文 并没有彻底打破我的学科模式。 |
| 383 | And so there are all sorts of simplifications we make in our, you know, in our research papers. | 所以在我们的研究论文中,我们有各种各样的简化。 |
| 384 | And, you know, I showed you that one example of, you know, this utility function, this happiness function, and people making decisions as if they're maximizing the expected value of that utility function. | 而且,你知道,我向你们展示了一个例子, 就是这个公用功能,这个幸福功能, 以及人们的决策, 仿佛他们在最大限度地发挥公用功能的预期价值。 |
| 385 | Clearly it's wrong, people don't actually do that, but I've written papers that make that assumption and kind of draw out the implications of that. | 显然,这是错误的, 人们实际上不这样做, 但我已经写了论文 作出这种假设, 并有点引出它的影响。 |
| 386 | So, I think that, you know, you should work within the confines of a discipline because, as I was saying, truly interdisciplinary research that tries to really get to the wrongness, address the wrongness of the disciplines, is very difficult to make progr | 所以,我认为,你知道,你应该在一个学科的范围内工作, 因为,正如我所说的,真正的跨学科研究 试图真正达到错误, 解决学科的错误, 是非常困难的, |
| 387 | But, again, you shouldn't forget that, in fact, your discipline has a lot of wrongness in it. | 但是,再说一遍,你不应该忘记,事实上,你的纪律在其中有很多错误. |
| 388 | And so periodically you should kind of look up and see, you know, what are kind of adjacent disciplines that are studying similar questions. | 所以,你应该定期地看一看, 你知道,什么是相邻的学科 在研究类似的问题。 |
| 389 | What are they saying about my problem? | 他们在说我的问题吗? |
| 390 | And this actually has a, has a, you know, analogy to some group dynamic | 这实际上有一个,有一个,你知道, 类比于一些群体动态 |
| 391 | and optimal management of group dynamics at the workplace that I think that my organizational behavior colleagues here at the School of Management teach, which is, you know, what is the best way to make progress on a problem when you have a team of people | 和最佳的工作场所群体动态管理, 我认为,我的组织行为同事 在这里的管理学院教, 这是,你知道,什么是最好的方法 在一个问题上取得进展 当你有一个团队的人? |
| 392 | Well, what you want to happen is you should have the team break up and for each individual member or a lot of small groups within the team come up with their own solution, with their own proposal, and then come back together and each team or each individu | 那么,你想发生的是,你应该让团队解散, 对于每个成员或团队中的许多小团体, 提出他们自己的解决方案, 提出他们自己的建议, 然后一起回来,每个团队或团队中的每个成员 都会提出他们的建议或提出他们的建议或答案。 |
| 393 | And then you aggregate and kind of try to synthesize all those approaches together. | 然后你们聚集起来, 尝试把所有这些方法结合起来。 |
| 394 | That's very much this Fox approach. | 这正是福克斯的方法 |
| 395 | And the wrong thing to do is to just start off in the big group talking together because then, well, the most senior person in the group or the loudest person in the group, they're going to just dominate the conversation and then the entire group will kin | 做错的事就是在大团体里开始 一起说话,因为这样, 团体里最高级的人, 或团体里最响亮的人, 他们就只能主导对话, 然后整个团体 就会朝着这个方向向我们倾斜。 |
| 396 | And so that's very much a hedgehog type of approach that emerges when you start off the group discussion or the group effort with everybody in the same room working together. | 所以,这在很大程度上是一种刺绣式的方法, 当你开始与大家在同一个会议室里合作的小组讨论或集体努力时,它就会出现。 |
| 397 | So similarly, I think in academic research, the economist should be doing economist things and doing economic research and the sociologists should be talking among themselves and writing papers in the sociological tradition and methodology. | 因此,同样,我认为在学术研究中,经济学家应该做经济学家的事情,做经济研究,社会学家应该互相交谈,用社会学传统和方法写论文. |
| 398 | But then every once in a while, we should get together and see, you know, where are you at and where are we at? | 但每隔一段时间,我们应该聚在一起, 看看,你在哪里,我们在哪里? |
| 399 | 说 about. | |
| 400 | So I think that that's kind of the most fruitful way for knowledge progression to happen. | 因此,我认为这是 一种最有成果的方法 知识进步。 |
| 401 | But then also, I think that I was saying that because knowledge production is a social process. | 但我也认为我是说, 因为知识生产是一个社会过程。 |
| 402 | There are people who are kind of seen as senior in the field, leaders of the field who have disproportionate influence in how the field is going to progress, what the standards are, what's considered wrong, not too long, what's considered useful enough. | 有的人被看做是外地的高级人物,外地的领导者,对外地的前进方式,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准,标准, |
| 403 | And, you know, someday you may find yourself in a position where you are in kind of that senior leadership role in an entire discipline, or at least with an entire organization. | 而且,你知道,总有一天,你可能会发现 自己处于一个位置, 那种高级领导角色 在一个整个学科, 或者至少是一个整个组织。 |
| 404 | And I think that's where things get pretty interesting, because you do have the opportunity to shift some of the standards and shift some of the approaches. | 我认为这就是事情变得很有趣的地方, 因为你确实有机会改变一些标准, 改变一些方法。 |
| 405 | And, you know, at that point, you would be the expert in that field. | 而且,你知道,在那个时候, 你会是该领域的专家。 |
| 406 | So I don't necessarily have advice for you as to exactly, you know, which way you would want to shift things. | 所以,我不一定有建议给你 关于确切的,你知道的, 你希望怎样改变事情。 |
| 407 | But I think that what's been kind of fun for me in working on this particular project and a few other projects that a few other papers that I've published recently is I felt like I had a little bit of an opportunity to shift the | 但我认为,在研究这个特定项目和一些其他项目方面,我一直觉得很有趣, 我最近发表的一些其他论文认为,我有一些机会可以改变 |
| 408 | research norms of economics and finance in a little bit away from that Milton Friedman approach that, you know, don't listen to people, what people have to say has no value as evidence for our theories. | 研究经济学和金融的规范 离米尔顿·弗里德曼的方法有点远, 你知道,不听别人的话, 人们不得不说,没有价值作为我们理论的证据。 |
| 409 | And I have a few papers now saying, no, actually people have some pretty interesting things to say, and maybe we should pay some attention to what they have to say, and also some attention to what they're listening to. | 我现在有几篇论文说,不,实际上人们有些有趣的事情要说, 也许我们应该注意他们必须说的话, 也注意他们正在听的话。 |
| 410 | So if Dave Ramsey is reaching hundreds of millions of people with his podcasts and his radio shows and his books. | 所以如果戴夫·拉姆齐用他的播客 广播节目和书籍 接触到数亿人 |
| 411 | Maybe we should like listen to that and we don't need to necessarily believe what he says, but let's listen and see if our theories need to adapt to take into account what people are saying what people are listening to. | 也许我们该听听这个,我们不需要相信他说的话, 但是让我们来听听,看看我们的理论是否需要适应, 以考虑人们在说什么。 |
| 412 | Thanks for sharing that, James. | 谢谢你的分享,詹姆斯。 |
| 413 | And one last question for me before we wrap up. | 临Τ程拜肈 |
| 414 | You mentioned super, super forecasting as a book that you would recommend any other book recommendations, kind of in the spirit of, I, you know, it really sounds like we're doing also a meta talk on knowledge creation and production. | 你提到超级,超级预测是一本书, 你会推荐任何其他书的建议, 那种精神,我,你知道,它真的听起来像我们也在做一个关于知识创造和制作的元论。 |
| 415 | In general, what are the books that you would recommend whether within that 50 personal finance book or kind of outside work, you think can really help people become more foxes and hopefully better decision makers. | 一般来说,你推荐的书是什么? 无论是在这50本个人财务书里 还是那种外部工作里, 你都认为能够真正帮助人们 成为更多的狐狸和希望更好的决策者。 |
| 416 | Now you've put me on the spot. | 现在你把我放在现场了 |
| 417 | I should I should have had a list or two or three books, super forecasting I'm definitely getting it. | 我本该有两三本书的 超级预测我绝对会得到的 |
| 418 | Thanks for the recommendation. | 谢谢你的建议。 |
| 419 | Yeah, I'm just pulling up my Kindle app so that I have, I get the title right. | 是啊,我只是拉 我的Kindle应用 这样,我有, 我得到了标题正确。 |
| 420 | I would recommend. | 我建议你 |
| 421 | There's a book by one of my co authors. | 我的一个同事写了本书 |
| 422 | I think it's called. | 我觉得它叫它。 |
| 423 | So, co author is Catherine milkman, and my LK man. | 所以,共同的作者是凯瑟琳牛奶人, 我的LK男人。 |
| 424 | And it's how to change the science of getting from where you are to where you want to be. | 如何改变从你所在的地方到你想去的地方的科学。 |
| 425 | So I think that often not when I have executives come guest lecturer in my classes, often they say that strategy is actually not the most important thing for organizational success or company success. | 所以我认为,当我的班级有高管来做客座讲师的时候, 经常有人说,策略其实不是组织成功或公司成功最重要的。 |
| 426 | It's the execution. | 乃处刑. |
| 427 | You can have the best strategy but if your execution is terrible then you're not going to succeed and if the execution is great. | 你可以有最好的策略 但如果你的处决是可怕的, 那么你不会成功 如果处决是伟大的。 |
| 428 | Even the strategies, not so good. | 即使是策略,也没那么好 |
| 429 | You can still win. | 你还能赢 |
| 430 | And I think that when it comes to even personal endeavors. | 我想,当它涉及到 甚至个人的努力。 |
| 431 | There's the goal that you have and the insight that you have, which is important, but often the biggest obstacle is getting yourself to do these things you know stop wasting time to be more productive to, to just, yeah, just to use your time more effectiv | 有你的目标 和你的洞察力, 这很重要, 但往往最大的障碍 是让你自己做这些事情 你知道,停止浪费时间 更生产,只是,是的,只是有效利用你的时间 |
| 432 | and so what Katie milkman's. | 还有凯蒂的奶婆 |
| 433 | So, yeah, I guess she's she's publishing as Katie milkman not Catherine milkman says kat y milkman. | 所以,是的,我猜她正在出版 凯蒂牛奶男 不是凯瑟琳牛奶男说凯特y牛奶男。 |
| 434 | And so she writes about kind of what the psychologists have learned about how we can get ourselves to behave like we would like to behave, how to get ourselves to exercise more how to stop procrastinating that sort of thing and so I think that that has be | 于是她写了心理学家们学到的 如何让我们自己像我们想要的行为一样 如何让自己多锻炼 如何停止拖延 那种东西,所以我觉得这也很漂亮 |
| 435 | fun book for me to read. | 我读一本有趣的书 |
| 436 | Super. | 超级。 |
| 437 | Well thank you so much for spending your Friday evening with us giving this very illuminating talk, which really helps to at least brought in my mind, and probably many of the audience's members minds as well. | 非常感谢你们在周五的晚上 和我们一起做这个非常有启发性的演讲, 这确实有助于至少让我想起, 可能还有许多观众的想法。 |
| 438 | And as a Yale Center Beijing tradition, especially for zoom talks, what we would like to ask people to do if they're able to is to turn on your cameras. | 作为耶鲁中心北京的传统,特别是用于放大式演讲, 我们想请人们做的, 如果他们能打开你的摄像机。 |
| 439 | Yes, we know some people who already know the drill, so that we can say thank you to Professor James choice | 是的,我们认识一些人 谁已经知道钻孔, 所以我们可以说谢谢你 詹姆斯教授选择 |
| 440 | and also do a fun group photo on zoom for keepsake. | 并做一个有趣的组合 照片在缩放为收藏。 |
| 441 | I'm seeing people. | 我见众生. |
| 442 | Great turning on their cameras and then I'm going to say Yale, thank you very much. | 伟大的打开他们的摄像头 然后我要说耶鲁,非常感谢。 |
| 443 | Bye bye. | 再见 |
| 444 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 445 | Bye bye. | 再见 |
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