中国城市年轻人婚恋观巨变之后
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:06 | I'll start again. | 我会重新开始。 |
| 0:08 | Good evening, everyone. | 大家晚上好,我们走 |
| 0:10 | Carol Rafferty of the Yale Center Beijing | 北京耶鲁中心卡罗尔·拉费蒂 |
| 0:13 | wanted to warmly welcome all of you. | 热烈欢迎你们所有人 |
| 0:15 | And she regrets that she cannot be here in person, | 她后悔不能亲自来 |
| 0:18 | but she asked me to extend a very warm welcome to everyone | 但她让我热烈欢迎大家 |
| 0:24 | and to thank our speaker, Professor Deborah Davis. | 并感谢我们的发言者德博拉·戴维斯教授。 |
| 0:29 | I also want to thank Carol's team here | 我也要感谢卡罗尔的团队 |
| 0:32 | at YCB for this lovely venue and for having enough room | 在YCB 为这个可爱的场所 和有足够的空间 |
| 0:36 | to accommodate everyone. | 以容纳每个人。 |
展开字幕全文（841 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I'll start again. | 我会重新开始。 |
| 2 | Good evening, everyone. | 大家晚上好,我们走 |
| 3 | Carol Rafferty of the Yale Center Beijing | 北京耶鲁中心卡罗尔·拉费蒂 |
| 4 | wanted to warmly welcome all of you. | 热烈欢迎你们所有人 |
| 5 | And she regrets that she cannot be here in person, | 她后悔不能亲自来 |
| 6 | but she asked me to extend a very warm welcome to everyone | 但她让我热烈欢迎大家 |
| 7 | and to thank our speaker, Professor Deborah Davis. | 并感谢我们的发言者德博拉·戴维斯教授。 |
| 8 | I also want to thank Carol's team here | 我也要感谢卡罗尔的团队 |
| 9 | at YCB for this lovely venue and for having enough room | 在YCB 为这个可爱的场所 和有足够的空间 |
| 10 | to accommodate everyone. | 以容纳每个人。 |
| 11 | I think we're going to have a totally full house here, which | 我想我们会有一个完全 房子在这里, |
| 12 | is great. | 这是伟大的。 |
| 13 | We had to move from the other room over here | 我们不得不从另一间房搬过来 |
| 14 | because the reception has been so wonderful. | 因为招待会太精彩了 |
| 15 | And also to the Yale Club members among you, | 还有耶鲁俱乐部的会员们 |
| 16 | it's a great reception, and we really appreciate it. | 这是一个伟大的接待, 我们真的很感激。 |
| 17 | Come on in. | 进来吧 |
| 18 | There's still some seats. | 还有些座位. |
| 19 | To many of you, Professor Davis needs no introduction. | 对你们许多人来说 Davis教授不需要介绍 |
| 20 | She's the, oh, first I should say, probably I | 她是,哦,首先我应该说,也许我 |
| 21 | do need an introduction because many of you don't know me. | 需要介绍一下 因为你们很多人不认识我 |
| 22 | So my name is Melinda Liu. | 我叫刘梅琳达 |
| 23 | I'm the vice president of RSBJ, which is co-organizing the event | 我是RSBJ的副总裁 正在联合组织这个活动 |
| 24 | today, an old friend of Deb and a great admirer of hers. | 今天是Deb的老朋友 她的崇拜者 |
| 25 | Now she doesn't need that much of an introduction | 现在她不需要这么多介绍 |
| 26 | because she is very well known in the Yale community. | 因为她在耶鲁社区很出名 |
| 27 | She is the professor emerita of sociology at Yale, | 她是耶鲁大学社会学教授Emerita, |
| 28 | where she served as director of academic programs | 她曾担任学术课程主任 |
| 29 | at the Yale Center for Study of Globalization. | 在耶鲁全球化研究中心。 |
| 30 | She is the chair of the Department of Sociology, | 她是社会学系主席, |
| 31 | the chair of the Council on East Asian Studies, | 东亚研究理事会主席, |
| 32 | and the co-chair of the Women's Faculty Forum. | 妇女学院论坛共同主席。 |
| 33 | She's currently a visiting faculty member | 她现在是一个客座教职员 |
| 34 | at Schwarzman College and an honorary dean | 施瓦兹曼学院,名誉院长 |
| 35 | and honorary professor at Fudan University. | 并担任富丹大学名誉教授. |
| 36 | Specific to tonight's topic, the future of marriage in China, | 特指今晚的话题 中国的婚姻前景 |
| 37 | her most recent book co-edited with Sarah Friedman | 她最近的著作与莎拉·弗里德曼合编 |
| 38 | is entitled Wives, Husbands, and Lovers. | 题为“妻子、丈夫和情人”。 |
| 39 | And a recent article related to tonight's talk | 还有一篇有关今晚谈话的文章 |
| 40 | is We Do, Parental Involvement in the Marriages | 我们做,父母参与婚姻 |
| 41 | of Urban Sons and Daughters. | 城市儿女节 |
| 42 | I know that just about everybody here | 我知道这里的每个人 |
| 43 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}他们一定一心想着结婚 | |
| 44 | or another, whether to get married | 结婚还是结婚 |
| 45 | or whether you can get away with not getting married, | 或者你是否可以逃脱不结婚, |
| 46 | whether your parents are trying to get you married, | 你父母是否想让你结婚 |
| 47 | or indeed whether your parents don't mind | 或者你父母不介意吗? |
| 48 | if you don't get married, or how long you're going to be married, | 如果你不结婚, 或多久你会结婚, |
| 49 | or how many times you're going to be married, | 或者你要结婚多少次 |
| 50 | or even how not to be married if you are married. | 或甚至如何不结婚 如果你结婚了。 |
| 51 | All of us have had this issue on our minds. | 我们大家都在想这个问题。 |
| 52 | And tonight, Deborah is going to enthrall us | 今晚黛博拉要缠绕我们 |
| 53 | with the extent of her knowledge | 以她了解的程度 |
| 54 | and also bring up a lot of surprising things | 并提起许多奇事, |
| 55 | that we don't already know. | 我们不知道 |
| 56 | Deborah, over to you. | 黛博拉 交给你了 |
| 57 | Linda didn't say enough about herself. | 琳达对自己说的还不够多 |
| 58 | Do you want to say what you've done in Beijing? | 你想说自己在北京做过什么吗? |
| 59 | The main thing I've done here is I've just | 我在这里所做的主要事情就是 |
| 60 | been here for a really long time, and I'm really an old-timer. | 一直在这里很长一段时间, 而我真的是一个老的。 |
| 61 | I'm the Beijing bureau chief for Newsweek Magazine. | 我是"新闻周刊"的北京局局长 |
| 62 | My husband and I work on the Royal Asiatic Society Beijing. | 丈夫和我在北京皇家亚运会工作. |
| 63 | And we try to be sort of a bridge through history | 我们试图成为一座跨越历史的桥梁 |
| 64 | and culture of Asia between East and West. | 以及东西方之间的亚洲文化。 |
| 65 | And we're so glad to have some fantastic speakers like Deb | 我们很高兴有Deb这样的好声音 |
| 66 | who can navigate that journey very well | 他们能顺利地航行 |
| 67 | and with great expertise. | 并拥有丰富的专业知识。 |
| 68 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 69 | I want to tone down the expectations. | 我想低调的期望。 |
| 70 | This is not the definitive talk on this topic. | 这不是关于这个议题的决定性讨论。 |
| 71 | This is actually a conversation. | 这其实是一个谈话。 |
| 72 | I was told that this would be an opportunity for me | 有人告诉我,这将是我的机会 |
| 73 | to learn from people who know much more than I | 向那些比我更了解的人学习 |
| 74 | about this subject. | 关于这个话题。 |
| 75 | So what I'm going to do, as I think was the overview already, | 所以,我要做什么, 我认为是概览已经, |
| 76 | is I am going to make an academic overview which | 我要做一个学术综述 |
| 77 | presents some of the questions. | 提出一些问题。 |
| 78 | And then I hope we will have time for the Q&A. | 我希望我们有时间参加"QQA" |
| 79 | So could you remind me of the time frame | 你能提醒我时间范围吗? |
| 80 | so I can look at the clock? | 这样我就能看钟表了? |
| 81 | OK, so I will go through the slides quite quickly. | 好吧,所以我会通过幻灯片 相当快。 |
| 82 | So I'll try to be finished by 6.35, 6.40 latest. | 6点35分,6点40分 |
| 83 | Fortunately, there's a clock. | 幸有钟. |
| 84 | And those of you who've been to university | 你们这些上过大学的人 |
| 85 | know that you turn them on and they | 你知道你打开它们,它们 |
| 86 | can talk for 10 minutes or 20 minutes or 45 minutes. | 可以交谈10分钟或20分钟或45分钟. |
| 87 | And I'm of that school. | 我是那个学校的 |
| 88 | When Melinda was deciding how to promote this | 当梅琳达决定如何推广 |
| 89 | for this group of this dual audience here, she added this | 对于这群双重观众,她加了这个 |
| 90 | I do. | 当然 |
| 91 | And that's fine with me. | 我无所谓 |
| 92 | You'll see I certainly returned to that. | 你会看到,我肯定回到了那个。 |
| 93 | But it's not really the way I shaped the talk. | 但这不是我塑造谈话的方式 |
| 94 | OK, we start here with a picture of an event in the summer. | 好的,我们从夏天开始拍一张照片 |
| 95 | How many people saw this on the news? | 有多少人在新闻上看到这个? |
| 96 | Anybody? | 有人吗? |
| 97 | Yes, few. | 是的,没有。 |
| 98 | OK, so I was thinking I have to give a series of lectures | 好吧,所以我想 我得做一系列的讲座 |
| 99 | for the Schwarzman students. | 为施瓦兹曼的学生。 |
| 100 | And marriage and divorce was on the agenda. | 结婚和离婚是议程之一。 |
| 101 | And so I'm looking for visuals. | 所以我在寻找视觉。 |
| 102 | And this sets up the question that runs in the class, | 由此形成了一个在课堂上运行的问题, |
| 103 | but also tonight, is we know that the Chinese government has | 但今晚我们知道中国政府 |
| 104 | decided that it really wants to shape | 决定它真的想塑造 |
| 105 | the institution of marriage. | 婚姻制度。 |
| 106 | If you looked at this article I wrote 10 years ago | 如果你看了这篇文章 我十年前写的 |
| 107 | on privatization of marriage, if we turn back the clock, | 关于婚姻私有化, 如果我们回转时钟, |
| 108 | at that point, really from the mid-'80s | 从80年代中期开始 |
| 109 | onward, the Chinese government stepped back | 中国政府退缩了 |
| 110 | from managing marriage. | 从管理婚姻。 |
| 111 | They didn't step back from managing fertility, | 他们没有退步 管理生育, |
| 112 | but they did step back from managing marriage. | 但他们确实放弃了婚姻管理 |
| 113 | And I'll highlight some of the consequences of that retreat | 我要强调这次撤退的一些后果 |
| 114 | from state supervision and politicization. | 从国家监督和政治化。 |
| 115 | Now there's a new administration, | 现在有了一个新的政府 |
| 116 | a new set of priorities. | 一套新的优先事项。 |
| 117 | And in this picture, we capture, I | 在这张照片中,我们捕捉,我 |
| 118 | So here we are in a very, very wealthy part of China. | 我们这里是中国非常非常富有的地方。 |
| 119 | And it's a group marriage. | 则群婚. |
| 120 | And it's being promoted to save money, | 并被提升为省钱, |
| 121 | to take parents out of the marriage equation, | 将父母从婚姻中解脱出来, |
| 122 | and hopefully stabilize marriage. | 希望婚姻稳定下来 |
| 123 | This is the goal. | 这是目标。 |
| 124 | And then the other more recent state council | 然后另一个最近的州议会 |
| 125 | piece is on the fertility piece. | 这是关于生育力的部分。 |
| 126 | So today, I'm going to talk about both these trends | 今天,我要谈谈这两个趋势 |
| 127 | in marriage and childbearing, which clearly are linked. | 在婚姻和生育中,这显然是相互联系的。 |
| 128 | So here is the story. | 故事是这样的 |
| 129 | China became one of the easiest and cheapest places | 中国成了最便宜最便宜的地方之一 |
| 130 | in the world to get a divorce. | 在世界上 获得离婚。 |
| 131 | This comes as a shock to many people. | 这令许多人感到震惊。 |
| 132 | I don't know, do I have a pointer? | 我不知道,我有指针吗? |
| 133 | Do I have a pointer as well? | 我也有指针吗? |
| 134 | Yes, this is probably a pointer. | 是的,这可能是一个指针。 |
| 135 | Let's see, is this a pointer? | 让我看看,这是指针吗? |
| 136 | No, okay, no pointer. | 不,好吧,没有指针。 |
| 137 | You can see this diagram, which I created, | 你可以看到这个图,我创造了, |
| 138 | it starts in 1978. | 从1978年开始 |
| 139 | If we had gone back further, | 如果我们再往前走 |
| 140 | you would have seen almost no divorce | 你会看到几乎没有离婚 |
| 141 | from the time the marriage law stops being implemented | 从婚姻法停止执行之时起 |
| 142 | around 1953, it's almost impossible to get a divorce. | 1953年前后,几乎不可能离婚. |
| 143 | The new marriage law changes the terms | 新婚姻法修改了条款 |
| 144 | and loosens the constraints. | 放松约束 |
| 145 | And at the same time, you have a surge of people | 同时,你还有一大堆人 |
| 146 | who had delayed their marriage. | 他们推迟了他们的婚姻。 |
| 147 | So if we start at that 1980, | 如果我们从1980年开始 |
| 148 | for every 23 marriages, there's one divorce. | 每23个婚姻,就有一个离婚。 |
| 149 | But as we move across, you'll see that ratio widens | 但是,当我们走过, 你会看到这个比例扩大 |
| 150 | so that by the time you get to 220, | 到220岁时 |
| 151 | it's two marriages for every divorce, | 每次离婚都得结婚两次 |
| 152 | one of the highest rates in the world. | 这是世界上最高的比率之一。 |
| 153 | It's also one of the cheapest place to get a divorce. | 这也是离婚最便宜的地方之一. |
| 154 | As you know, you don't need to go to court. | 如是知已不须上堂. |
| 155 | It's quite extraordinary. | 这是相当不寻常的。 |
| 156 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 157 | He's all set. | 他都准备好了 |
| 158 | So this is challenge number one to the state. | 所以这是第一挑战 国家。 |
| 159 | What are they going to do with this divorce pattern? | 他们要怎么处理这种离婚模式? |
| 160 | And they have, as you know, made it harder | 他们已经,你知道, 使它更加困难 |
| 161 | to get a divorce, somewhat delayed. | 要离婚,有些拖延。 |
| 162 | And in this last court, going through 2024, | 在最后的法庭上 经历了2024年 |
| 163 | the ratio now is 2.4 marriages to one divorce. | 现在的比例是2.4对一桩离婚。 |
| 164 | But we captured the issue. | 但我们抓住了这个问题。 |
| 165 | The state would like to stabilize marriage. | 国家希望稳定婚姻。 |
| 166 | It would like to reduce the number of divorces. | 它希望减少离婚的数量。 |
| 167 | It would like to make marriages more secure. | 它希望使婚姻更加安全。 |
| 168 | And what I will be talking about | 而我会谈论 |
| 169 | and listening to your reflections | 并倾听你的叙述, |
| 170 | is that I think this is very, very hard to do. | 我认为这是非常,非常困难的。 |
| 171 | The conditions which make divorce necessary, | 离婚的必要条件; |
| 172 | a choice, I think will continue. | 一个选择,我想会继续。 |
| 173 | And I don't see any evidence that the state | 我没有看到任何证据证明国家 |
| 174 | is really going to make it that much more difficult. | 这真的会 使它更困难。 |
| 175 | So that's the big story. | 这就是大故事。 |
| 176 | The other piece is the parents | 另一个是父母 |
| 177 | that Melinda mentioned at the beginning. | 梅林达一开始提到的 |
| 178 | Our parents as deeply involved. | 我们的父母都参与其中 |
| 179 | And the change that I saw before COVID | 我之前看到的改变 |
| 180 | and then after COVID, last year it's really struck me, | 然后在COVID之后, 去年它真的打击了我, |
| 181 | was that parents were less anxious. | 父母没有那么紧张 |
| 182 | Now this picture was taken in 2015 | 现在这张照片是在2015年拍的 |
| 183 | when I was working on the marriage corner in Shanghai. | 当时我在上海的婚姻街角工作 |
| 184 | And that's one of the articles that relates to this | 这是其中一篇文章 与此有关 |
| 185 | called reinstating the family. | 称恢复家庭。 |
| 186 | This is looking at who marries whom, | 看谁娶谁 |
| 187 | who relies on parents to find a spouse, | 他们依靠父母找到配偶, |
| 188 | and what we found from not this picture, | 我们从这张照片里找到的 |
| 189 | but from a survey of a random sample | 但通过随机抽样调查 |
| 190 | of everyone in Shanghai born between 1980 and 1989. | 1980年至1989年间出生在上海的每一个人。 |
| 191 | It's a fantastic survey. | 这是一次奇妙的调查。 |
| 192 | And about 40% are YD people. | 约40%是YD人。 |
| 193 | So we were really able to look at what it means | 所以,我们真的能够看 它意味着什么 |
| 194 | to be native and non-native in the city of Shanghai. | 在上海市成为本地人和非本地人。 |
| 195 | And most people who married did so | 结婚的大多数人都是这样 |
| 196 | by finding their spouse themselves, majority. | 找到自己的配偶,多数。 |
| 197 | But almost 20% relied on their parents or a close relative. | 但近20%的人依赖于父母或近亲. |
| 198 | So my task was to figure out, | 所以我的任务就是想出办法 |
| 199 | do men behave differently than women? | 男人的行为是否与女人不同? |
| 200 | Are men and parents of men involved in this marriage search | 男人和父母是否参与了这次婚姻搜查 |
| 201 | in a different way than the parents of the women? | 和女人的父母不一样? |
| 202 | Hanging out, I went to the marriage corner for 18 weeks, | 出去玩,我去了结婚18周 |
| 203 | and I would circulate around. | 我会到处转转 |
| 204 | I would talk to people. | 我会和别人谈谈。 |
| 205 | I had a minimum of an hour. | 我至少有一个小时 |
| 206 | And afterwards we did a structured set of interviews | 之后我们进行了一系列分阶段的访谈 |
| 207 | with students, because what I observed was that | 与学生, 因为我观察到的是, |
| 208 | when fathers were looking for sons, | 当父亲们寻找儿子的时候, |
| 209 | the unmarried son, they were angry. | 未婚的儿子, 他们生气。 |
| 210 | They were angry at their son. | 他们生儿子的气 |
| 211 | And when mothers were looking for their daughters, | 当母亲在寻找自己的女儿时, |
| 212 | they were mainly guilty. | 他们主要有罪。 |
| 213 | I don't mean this as they filled out a form. | 我不是这个意思,因为他们填写了表格。 |
| 214 | I'm talking about the sense that when you're talking | 我说的是你说话时的感觉 |
| 215 | that fathers as they were talking could start very calmly. | 父亲在说话时可以冷静地开始 |
| 216 | And then as the conversation, they became quite agitated | 然后随着谈话,他们变得相当激动 |
| 217 | and I called it angry. | 我称之为愤怒。 |
| 218 | It doesn't, that's on that end of the spectrum. | 它没有,那是在光谱的那一端。 |
| 219 | And that was what I was interested in. | 这就是我感兴趣的。 |
| 220 | So when we went back to look at the terrific data we had, | 所以,当我们回去看 我们拥有的出色数据, |
| 221 | we did indeed find a statistically significant variation | 我们确实发现了一个统计上的重大变化 |
| 222 | controlling for all of their variables. | 控制所有变量。 |
| 223 | And that was men who relied on their parents | 那是依赖父母的男人 |
| 224 | were significantly more likely to have a father | 更可能有一个父亲 |
| 225 | who was a party member. | 谁是党员。 |
| 226 | Women who relied on their parents | 依靠父母的妇女 |
| 227 | were significantly likely to have a Shanghai hukou. | 很可能有上海的户口 |
| 228 | So the way we interpret it, which holds up, | 所以,我们解释它的方式, 这维持了, |
| 229 | I think in different ways, is that the men | 我认为不同的方式,是男人 |
| 230 | who had not found a spouse on their own | 未独自找到配偶的人 |
| 231 | and were relying on their parents | 并仰赖他们的父母, |
| 232 | were also drawing on their parents' political capital | 还利用了父母的政治资本 |
| 233 | and political position. | 政治立场。 |
| 234 | Whereas the women who had not yet found a spouse | 而还没有找到配偶的妇女 |
| 235 | and whose parents were involved, | 他们的父母, |
| 236 | the key concern of the parents was that the hukou match. | 父母们最关心的是 外衣的配对 |
| 237 | The Shanghai parents wanted to be sure their daughter | 上海父母想确认一下女儿 |
| 238 | had a Shanghai man. | 有个上海人 |
| 239 | They did not want to have, | 他们不想有, |
| 240 | and this is when you control all else. | 这就是你控制一切的时候 |
| 241 | And those of you who do statistics means | 你们中做统计的人, |
| 242 | we're talking about a probability | 我们说的是概率 |
| 243 | that there's not a straight linear line, | 没有直线线, |
| 244 | but it fits that a man who doesn't find a spouse on his own | 但一个没有自己找到配偶的男人 |
| 245 | is more reliant on their parents | 更加依赖父母 |
| 246 | and parents who have more assets. | 和拥有更多资产的父母。 |
| 247 | And it's not the economic asset necessarily, | 它不一定是经济资产, |
| 248 | but a political connection. | 但是政治联系 |
| 249 | This is something that's useful in this marriage search. | 这对寻找婚姻很有帮助 |
| 250 | And in the women, it's this anxiety | 在女人身上,就是这种焦虑 |
| 251 | that their daughter will marry someone | 他们的女儿会嫁给某人 |
| 252 | who is not Shanghainese. | 谁不是上海人 |
| 253 | And this is what they're looking for, | 这就是他们要找的 |
| 254 | is a kind of matching of the doors for themselves. | 是一种自我匹配的门。 |
| 255 | And that was the basic takeaway | 这是基本的外卖 |
| 256 | from when I last went to the corner, which was 2019. | 从我上次去角落时开始, 2019年。 |
| 257 | And I was walking around, | 我到处走 |
| 258 | and afterwards I stopped to meet some men | 之后我停下来见一些男人 |
| 259 | who were just talking to each other. | 他们只是聊天。 |
| 260 | They weren't at the marriage corner. | 他们不是在结婚的角落。 |
| 261 | And we talked about what was going on. | 我们谈论了发生了什么。 |
| 262 | And I told them, I think what's happening | 我告诉他们,我想发生了什么事 |
| 263 | is the parents are circulating, | 父母在流通吗? |
| 264 | especially the more affluent ones, | 特别是富人, |
| 265 | around the edges of the park, | 在公园的边缘, |
| 266 | trying to find a family that looked like them, | 试图找到一个像他们一样的家庭, |
| 267 | matching of doors. | 匹配门。 |
| 268 | And the two men said, absolutely. | 两个人说,绝对。 |
| 269 | This is why they don't do it online. | 这就是为什么他们不在网上做。 |
| 270 | This is why they're not doing it with an indirect in-between. | 这就是为什么他们没有这样做 间接在两者之间。 |
| 271 | They want to go and they want to see, | 他们想去,他们想看到, |
| 272 | and they want to make sure that the doors match. | 他们想要确保门匹配。 |
| 273 | So I think the tradition of parents | 所以我认为父母的传统 |
| 274 | playing this key role in matchmaking, | 在牵线搭桥方面发挥关键作用, |
| 275 | which is matching the families, | 与家人相配的, |
| 276 | is deeply rooted in many ways. | 在许多方面根深蒂固。 |
| 277 | And it certainly has not been extinguished. | 它当然没有被消灭。 |
| 278 | But what I am suggesting is that | 但我建议 |
| 279 | for the current group of unmarried persons, | 对于目前的未婚人群, |
| 280 | parents are moving more to the edge | 双亲们正在向边缘移动 |
| 281 | and parents themselves are reassessing | 父母自己正在重新评估 |
| 282 | the centrality of marriage. | 婚姻的中心地位。 |
| 283 | Because we have a new generation of parents | 因为我们有新一代的父母 |
| 284 | who themselves may have either been through a divorce | 本人可能已经离婚 |
| 285 | or they have seen other marital situations | 或她们见过其他婚姻情况; |
| 286 | which are unacceptable. | 这是不可接受的。 |
| 287 | So it's no longer parents feeling there's only one path | 所以父母不再觉得只有一条路 |
| 288 | and without marrying, you're abnormal. | 不结婚,你就不正常 |
| 289 | If I started in 2014, 2015, | 如果我从2014年开始,2015年, |
| 290 | that would be the most common things. | 这将是最常见的事情。 |
| 291 | These people are abnormal. | 这些人是不正常的。 |
| 292 | And this is necessary. | 这是必要的。 |
| 293 | My child is not abnormal. | 我的孩子不是不正常的。 |
| 294 | And what I'm listening to, hearing, | 和我在听,听, |
| 295 | and I can hear more from this audience, | 我能从观众那里听到更多 |
| 296 | is I think there's a shift | 我觉得有转变 |
| 297 | because we're dealing with a different group of parents. | 因为我们面对的是不同的父母 |
| 298 | We're dealing with parents who themselves, | 我们面对的是父母 他们自己, |
| 299 | we're parents of the only child | 我们是独生子的父母 |
| 300 | who themselves matured in the 1980s. | 他们自己在1980年代就已经成熟了。 |
| 301 | This is not the parents of the 1960s or 1970s. | 这不是1960年代或1970年代的父母。 |
| 302 | Got too many pieces here. | 这里的碎片太多了 |
| 303 | So that's the marriage corner. | 这就是婚姻的角落 |
| 304 | The other piece of the research | 另一项研究 |
| 305 | that I did in this period was about weddings. | 这段时期我所做的 是关于婚礼。 |
| 306 | And again, people would say, weddings, how trivial. | 再说一次,人们会说,婚礼,多么微不足道。 |
| 307 | I had done an earlier book | 我之前写过一本书 |
| 308 | which was called The Consumer Revolution | 被称为消费者革命 |
| 309 | in which we spent a lot of times | 我们花了很多时间 |
| 310 | in department stores and malls, | 在百货公司和商场, |
| 311 | which I don't even do in the United States. | 在美国我甚至不这样做。 |
| 312 | And again, people said, | 人们又说, |
| 313 | why are you wasting your time in a mall? | 你为什么在商场浪费时间? |
| 314 | Similarly here, people say, what? | 同样在这里,人们说,什么? |
| 315 | Why are you wasting your time in marriage halls? | 你为什么在结婚大厅里浪费时间? |
| 316 | Why are you interviewing people in the marriage industry? | 你为什么要采访婚姻界的人? |
| 317 | Why are you interviewing people | 你为什么采访别人? |
| 318 | and watching their marriage videos? | 看他们的婚姻录像? |
| 319 | And there are many reasons. | 也有许多原因。 |
| 320 | One is that as a foreign scholar, | 一个是作为外国学者 |
| 321 | even in 2019, you had to be 2017, 2019, | 即使在2019年,你也必须是2017,2019, |
| 322 | not all topics are available to you. | 并非所有的话题都可以为您提供。 |
| 323 | And so you do strategize to find a location | 所以,你确实有策略 寻找一个位置 |
| 324 | where you as the foreigner can listen. | 在那里你作为外国人可以听。 |
| 325 | And whereas you as a foreigner might see things | 身为外国人,你可能会看到一些事情 |
| 326 | that the official record is not reporting back to you. | 官方记录没有向你报告 |
| 327 | And weddings was precisely that location. | 婚礼就是那个地点 |
| 328 | And it was also a place because it's a happy event | 那也是一个地方 因为它是一个快乐的事件 |
| 329 | in which people welcomed me into the weddings. | 人们欢迎我参加婚礼 |
| 330 | They welcomed me into their homes. | 他们欢迎我回家 |
| 331 | And for an outside researcher, | 对于一个外部研究人员, |
| 332 | this is a gold mine. | 这是金矿 |
| 333 | I mean, this is where we wanna be, | 我的意思是,这是我们想要的地方, |
| 334 | where we are there to listen | 我们在那里听 |
| 335 | and people willingly want to share their views | 人们愿意分享他们的观点 |
| 336 | without censorship. | 没有审查。 |
| 337 | So this is a picture of those of you | 这是你们的照片 |
| 338 | who have been to many weddings. | 他们去过很多婚礼。 |
| 339 | This is not a wedding I attended. | 这不是我参加的婚礼 |
| 340 | So this is from a website from my wedding industry picture. | 这是从一个网站 从我的婚礼行业图片。 |
| 341 | So I wouldn't use it in a publication, | 所以我不会在出版物上使用它, |
| 342 | 但我可以在PowerPoint里用到这个 | |
| 343 | And you can see what the sub heading | 你可以看到什么子标题 |
| 344 | of the article I wrote from this, | 我写的这篇文章, |
| 345 | performing happiness for self and others. | 给自己和其他人带来幸福 |
| 346 | That's what we were probing. | 这就是我们调查的 |
| 347 | What's the meaning of xinfu? | 何谓仙佛. |
| 348 | What's the meaning of happiness? | 何谓喜乐. |
| 349 | And within the wedding setting, wedding performance, | 在婚礼的场合,婚礼的表演, |
| 350 | it was very clear how both generations were invested | 非常清楚两代人是如何投资的 |
| 351 | {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}让这个快乐的事件成为一次精彩的演出 | |
| 352 | And it was for the parents. | 而是为父母. |
| 353 | Most of the young people that I interviewed | 我采访的大多数年轻人 |
| 354 | or had conversations with | 或与 |
| 355 | would have preferred a destination wedding, | 更喜欢一个目的地婚礼, |
| 356 | but destination weddings were not acceptable | 但目的地婚礼是无法接受的 |
| 357 | to their parents. | 他们的父母。 |
| 358 | So the wedding is very much a celebration of the family. | 所以婚礼是家族的庆典 |
| 359 | It's a demonstration that they are good parents. | 证明他们是好父母 |
| 360 | I'm now going to flag a few other places | 我现在要给其他几个地方挂旗 |
| 361 | where I think that the state's agenda | 我认为国家的议程 |
| 362 | is going to run into problems. | 将会遇到问题。 |
| 363 | And the first is on this question of fidelity. | 第一个问题是忠诚的问题。 |
| 364 | And the importance of sexual intimacy outside of marriage. | 以及婚外性亲密的重要性. |
| 365 | Premarital, extramarital, and same sex. | 婚前、婚外和同性性行为 |
| 366 | I'm going to be talking only about the first. | 我将只谈论第一个。 |
| 367 | So this is from Pan Sui Min, | 这是潘秀敏写的 |
| 368 | who some of you may know as a Renda Professor, | 你们中谁知道是Renda教授? |
| 369 | and he's written a very famous book. | 他写了一本很有名的书 |
| 370 | This is from an article that was originally in 2017, | 这是2017年的一篇文章 |
| 371 | but it surfaced last summer, | 但去年夏天浮出水面, |
| 372 | as I was thinking about, not this lecture, | 正如我在想,不是这个讲座, |
| 373 | which I didn't know I was going to give, | 我不知道我会给, |
| 374 | but the lecture I was going to give at Schwarzman. | 但我打算在施瓦兹曼讲课 |
| 375 | And it's very shocking to people in Hong Kong to see this. | 香港人看到这个也非常震惊. |
| 376 | It is very shocking to most people in the United States | 这令美国大多数人非常震惊 |
| 377 | that over this relatively short period from 2000 to 2015, | 在2000年至2015年这一相对较短的时期内, |
| 378 | the level of going off the tracks, | 离轨的程度, |
| 379 | being unfaithful to your partner | 不忠于你的伴侣 |
| 380 | is so widely acknowledged in China. | 在中国被广泛承认. |
| 381 | This is asking people, have you gone off the tracks? | 这是问人们, 你离开轨道了吗? |
| 382 | So these are people who said yes to when they were surveyed. | 这些人在被调查时答应了。 |
| 383 | So one assumes the rate could be higher, | 所以假设这个比率可能更高 |
| 384 | that there's the lower boundary. | 下方的边界。 |
| 385 | And not surprisingly, the male rate, which is the blue line, | 毫不奇怪, 男性比率, 也就是蓝线, |
| 386 | is higher than the female, which is the yellow, | 比雌性还高,是黄的, |
| 387 | and then the red is both partners, both sides report it. | 然后红色是两个伙伴, 双方报告。 |
| 388 | And the other piece, which for the Chinese audience, | 还有另一部为中国观众准备的作品 |
| 389 | I think this is particularly appropriate, | 我觉得这特别合适 |
| 390 | is how do people react to infidelity | 是人们如何应对不忠 |
| 391 | based on their year of birth? | 根据他们的出生年份? |
| 392 | So here what we're, you can see, | 所以这里我们是什么,你可以看到, |
| 393 | you all don't have to walk through. | 你们不用走过去 |
| 394 | I think the born after 2000 is a less, | 我觉得2000年以后出生的人是少了一点 |
| 395 | they're less numerous, | 数量较少 |
| 396 | but really what we're looking at | 但其实我们所看到的 |
| 397 | are the older generation. | 是年长的一代。 |
| 398 | So here are people born, sorry, before 1960, you can, | 这里的人出生,对不起, 在1960年之前,你可以, |
| 399 | why is this thing not working? | 为什么这东西不起作用? |
| 400 | Can we find it? | 我们能找到吗? |
| 401 | No. | 没有 |
| 402 | Do we see? | 看到了吗? |
| 403 | Should be here, right? | 应该在这里,对不对? |
| 404 | Okay, it's not working. | 好吧,这是行不通的。 |
| 405 | It's okay, it's okay. | 没事的,没事。 |
| 406 | Well, it did before, but it's not now. | 嗯,它以前有过,但现在不是。 |
| 407 | So anyway, I'll just use, we'll use old fashioned, | 所以,不管怎么样,我只用,我们用老式的, |
| 408 | really old fashioned, this is great, this is great. | 真的很古老,这是伟大的,这是伟大的。 |
| 409 | So this, when we're talking about this gap | 所以,当我们谈论这个差距时 |
| 410 | between the parents and the younger ones, | 在父母和幼女之间, |
| 411 | so these are people born before 1960, | 所以这些人是1960年以前出生的 |
| 412 | and then let's focus on the ones, 1970, | 然后让我们集中关注那些,1970年, |
| 413 | those are the current ones, | 这些是现在的, |
| 414 | and this younger generation here. | 和这个年轻一代在这里。 |
| 415 | So these people are about 30 years old. | 所以这些人大约30岁。 |
| 416 | And the first one, what do you do | 第一个,你做什么 |
| 417 | if you discover your partner is unfaithful? | 如果你发现你的搭档不忠? |
| 418 | Nothing, right? | 没什么,对吧? |
| 419 | This is, and we watch how this is radically changed | 这就是,我们看着它是如何彻底改变的 |
| 420 | so that the younger group is really going | 这样,年轻的群体 是真的去 |
| 421 | to make it public. | 以公开它。 |
| 422 | Here, they will immediately ask to break up, | 在这里,他们会立即要求分手, |
| 423 | have a divorce. | 已经离婚了 |
| 424 | Again, this is the younger group. | 同样,这是较年轻的群体。 |
| 425 | On one hand, we, in other words, | 一方面,我们,换句话说, |
| 426 | we're seeing actually high levels | 我们看到的是高水平 |
| 427 | of infidelity to a partner. | 对伴侣的不忠。 |
| 428 | And at the same time, the response is, I will break up. | 同时,我的反应是,我要分手。 |
| 429 | I'm not doing research on this, | 我不做这个研究, |
| 430 | and I'm not going to talk about | 我不会谈论 |
| 431 | how this compares to other countries | 与其他国家相比, |
| 432 | because I don't have that information. | 因为我没有这个信息。 |
| 433 | But it's a dynamic that I'm thinking about. | 但它是一个动态,我想。 |
| 434 | On one hand, people are, the marriages are fragile. | 一方面,人们是,婚姻是脆弱的。 |
| 435 | People are more willing to divorce. | 人们更愿意离婚. |
| 436 | Divorce is less stigmatized. | 离婚的耻辱度较低。 |
| 437 | Parents are putting less pressure on young adults to marry. | 父母对年轻成年人结婚的压力较小。 |
| 438 | And yet, these same, if this is capturing what's happening, | 然而,这些一样,如果这是 捕捉正在发生的, |
| 439 | they also are quick to call things off. | 他们也很快地把事情取消了。 |
| 440 | So actually, that's fueling the other's instability. | 所以事实上,这助长了对方的不稳定。 |
| 441 | So there's different things going on. | 故各有别事. |
| 442 | So the rules for sexual intimacy | 所以性关系的规则 |
| 443 | and for partnerships have radically changed, | 伙伴关系发生了巨大变化, |
| 444 | but there's something else going on | 但还有别的事 |
| 445 | in terms of how people who are more likely | 就更可能的人而言 |
| 446 | to be seemingly casual are quicker also to break up. | 看上去很随意 也快分手了 |
| 447 | And we'll talk more, | 我们再谈 |
| 448 | and I'm not gonna talk too much more, | 我不会说太多, |
| 449 | how these things do or don't fit together. | 这些事情是怎样的 或不相适应的。 |
| 450 | The bottom line is that there's a lot of, | 底线是,有很多, |
| 451 | beneath the surface, | 在地表之下, |
| 452 | there's extraordinary stress and strain, | 有异常的压力和压力, |
| 453 | which everyone in this room knows, | 这房间里的每个人都知道, |
| 454 | and the happy picture that the government has put in place | 以及政府建立的幸福景象 |
| 455 | where they're trying to make it harder to divorce | 他们想让离婚更难 |
| 456 | and ask families to have a second or even third child | 要求家庭生第二个甚至第三个孩子 |
| 457 | seems to be operating in a different universe | 似乎在一个不同的宇宙中运作 |
| 458 | than the citizens. | 比市民还要好 |
| 459 | This is another piece, which I'll just throw out, | 这是另一块,我会扔出去, |
| 460 | and then when the Q&A, we'll pick it up, | 然后当QQA,我们会把它捡起来, |
| 461 | and that's the distinction between men and women. | 这就是男女的区别 |
| 462 | I mentioned in the study of the marriage corner | 我在研究婚姻角落时提到过 |
| 463 | with the parents, and then when we ran against the survey | 和父母,然后当我们跑 与调查 |
| 464 | where we had the information on how individuals | 在那里我们得到了关于个人如何 |
| 465 | found a partner, that there was something quite different | 找到一个搭档, 有一些完全不同的东西 |
| 466 | between what men were expecting of marriage | 男人们期待的婚姻 |
| 467 | and how they went to get, found a partner versus women. | 和他们如何去得到, 找到一个伴侣与女人。 |
| 468 | Sometimes they're the same, | 有时他们是一样的, |
| 469 | but something is clearly gendered. | 但有些事情是明显的性别。 |
| 470 | And this was a survey that was online this summer, | 这是今年夏天上线的调查 |
| 471 | and it shows the dark blue are the females, | 它显示深蓝色是雌性 |
| 472 | and in each case, women are less likely than men | 在每种情况下,妇女比男子更不可能 |
| 473 | to think that they can commit | 以为他们可以犯罪 |
| 474 | to one romantic partner for life. | 和一个浪漫的伴侣生活在一起 |
| 475 | So this is the men. | 这就是男人。 |
| 476 | Yes, I absolutely can imagine this is true. | 是的,我完全可以想象这是真的。 |
| 477 | Only 30% of women are going to say yes, absolutely true. | 只有30%的妇女会答应,绝对是真的。 |
| 478 | And then we go here, not sure, women are more unsure. | 然后我们到这里, 不确定,女人更不确定。 |
| 479 | This is just capturing people in an online survey. | 这只是在在线调查中捕捉人。 |
| 480 | It is not as good as the Shanghai survey that we had, | 不如上海调查那样好 |
| 481 | but to me, it reflects what I do see in many different ways, | 但对我来说,它反映了我在许多不同方面所看到的, |
| 482 | that men and women are increasingly looking at marriage | 男人和女人越来越关注婚姻 |
| 483 | in a different way, and this has been true for a long time, | 以不同的方式,这是很久以前的事了, |
| 484 | but here, and this is why I call it his, her, | 但在这里,这就是为什么我称之为他的,她, |
| 485 | and their marriages. | 还有他们的婚姻 |
| 486 | So the idea that marriages experience differently | 所以婚姻经历不同的想法 |
| 487 | for men and women is true, | 男女确是真实的, |
| 488 | but the curious or the distinctive aspect | 但好奇或独特的方面 |
| 489 | about the Chinese experience that we've been able to track | 关于中国的经验,我们已经能够追踪 |
| 490 | is before 1949, there were his, her, and their marriages. | 在1949年之前,有他的,她的,和他们的婚姻。 |
| 491 | Daughters were in a very different position than sons. | 女儿们的处境与儿子们截然不同。 |
| 492 | Daughters were married out. | 女儿们都结婚了 |
| 493 | Virtually all women were married. | 几乎所有妇女都已结婚。 |
| 494 | 15% of men were not married, | 15%的男子没有结婚, |
| 495 | and marriages were controlled and orchestrated by parents. | 婚姻由父母控制和安排。 |
| 496 | So there was his opportunity, her opportunity, | 所以有他的机会 她的机会 |
| 497 | and theirs, the parents. | 他们的父母。 |
| 498 | So the idea of his, her, and their marriages | 所以他的想法,她,和他们的婚姻 |
| 499 | is a well-established, I think, phenomena before 1949. | 我认为,在1949年之前,这是一个早已确立的现象。 |
| 500 | The socialist revolution, particularly in the cities, | 社会主义革命,特别是在城市, |
| 501 | really drastically changed that, | 彻底改变了这一点, |
| 502 | and what we could see by the 70s from indirect, | 和我们可以看到的70年代 从间接, |
| 503 | because we don't have great surveys from those eras, | 因为我们没有 伟大的调查 从这些时代, |
| 504 | were that in the cities where socialism | 在社会主义的城市里 |
| 505 | was most institutionalized, men and women really, | 男人和女人都是最制度化的 |
| 506 | first of all, the age at marriage, | 首先,结婚年龄, |
| 507 | the age difference between men and women narrowed. | 男女年龄差别缩小。 |
| 508 | So that meant women were more likely to marry men | 也就是说女人更可能嫁给男人 |
| 509 | who were their peers. | 他们是他们的同伴。 |
| 510 | Then we thought about housing. | 然后我们考虑住房问题。 |
| 511 | Most people in urban China went to the Danwei, | 大部分在中国城市的人去了丹威 |
| 512 | lined up, waited in line, | 排好队 排好队 |
| 513 | and eventually they got an apartment. | 最后他们得到了一个公寓。 |
| 514 | Their parents, for most people, | 他们的父母,对大多数人来说, |
| 515 | couldn't push them up the queue. | 无法让他们排队 |
| 516 | In fact, you stayed with your parents | 其实你和父母住在一起 |
| 517 | if you weren't allocated a dorm room | 如果你没有分配宿舍 |
| 518 | until your name came up on the queue. | 直到你的名字出现在队列上。 |
| 519 | And this is, of course, very different than rural China. | 当然,这与中国农村大不相同。 |
| 520 | So for most people in China where parents controlled housing, | 所以对于大多数中国人来说 父母控制住房 |
| 521 | it was a different story. | 这是一个不同的故事。 |
| 522 | I think that wasn't the full socialist revolution. | 我认为这不是完全的社会主义革命. |
| 523 | But if we look at the Danwei system | 但是如果我们看看丹威制度 |
| 524 | and the socialist economy that was built | 社会主义经济的建设 |
| 525 | with decommodified housing, parents really lost access. | 父母确实失去了获得住房的机会。 |
| 526 | Parents also lost the ability to help find a mate. | 父母也失去了帮助寻找伴侣的能力. |
| 527 | Most people who did use introductions, | 大部分使用介绍的人, |
| 528 | and they were very common in the Mao years, | 在毛泽东时代很常见 |
| 529 | it was someone at the workplace. | 是工作场所的人 |
| 530 | It was their shifu in the trejian, | 是他们在特雷杰的师父 |
| 531 | or in the school, it would be the banzuren, | 在学校里 应该是班祖伦 |
| 532 | the people that were supervising these young adults. | 监督这些年轻人的人 |
| 533 | And those were the people who found the best matches. | 这些是找到最佳火柴的人 |
| 534 | It wasn't the parents. | 这不是父母。 |
| 535 | The parents didn't have that oversight, | 父母没有这种疏忽, |
| 536 | they didn't have that influence, | 他们没有这种影响力, |
| 537 | and they didn't have the assets. | 他们没有资产。 |
| 538 | So what I'm hypothesizing is in that socialist era, | 所以,我所假设的是 在这个社会主义时代, |
| 539 | marriages became more egalitarian. | 婚姻变得更加平等。 |
| 540 | There was more sharing of housework. | 还有更多的家务劳动。 |
| 541 | There was, we don't know if there was less domestic violence. | 我们不知道有没有减少家庭暴力 |
| 542 | I'm gonna put that aside. | 我要把这个放在一边。 |
| 543 | And we certainly, I can refer you to other people | 当然,我可以介绍你给其他人 |
| 544 | who are now focused on what they perceive | 他们现在专注于他们所见的, |
| 545 | as an increased level of violence. | 导致暴力升级。 |
| 546 | I have no idea if it was less in the 1960s or 70s, | 我不知道在20世纪60年代还是70年代 |
| 547 | but I am quite sure that the way in which people | 但我很肯定人们的方式 |
| 548 | found their mate, the narrow age gap, | 发现他们的伴侣, 缩小的年龄差距, |
| 549 | and then the character of the welfare system | 以及福利制度的性质 |
| 550 | meant that marriages were more egalitarian. | 这意味着婚姻更加平等。 |
| 551 | And the last point, they were politicized | 最后一点,他们被政治化了 |
| 552 | so that if you stepped out of line, | 如果你出轨了 |
| 553 | were you to be unfaithful to your partner, | 你是否对搭档不忠 |
| 554 | this would get you in deep trouble. | 这会给你带来很大的麻烦。 |
| 555 | And there was not as much privacy. | 而且没有那么多的隐私。 |
| 556 | And it was not that there weren't affairs, | 并不是没有事情, |
| 557 | not that people didn't act out, | 不是人们没有表现出来, |
| 558 | but it was much more costly. | 但代价要高得多 |
| 559 | And so people had, as reported, | 因此,人们,正如报道, |
| 560 | less of the kind of cheating | 少了那种欺骗 |
| 561 | that this survey seems to indicate is quite common. | 这项调查似乎表明,这是相当常见的。 |
| 562 | Okay, and that's my point. | 好吧,这就是我的观点。 |
| 563 | It's been the case, his, her, and their marriages, | 事情是这样的 他的 她 还有他们的婚姻 |
| 564 | except for this interlude, the Maoist interlude. | 除了这个插曲,毛派插曲。 |
| 565 | I just wanna quickly, this is the lecture part. | 我只是想快点,这是讲座的部分。 |
| 566 | Not necessary, but since I was introduced | 没必要,但因为我被介绍 |
| 567 | as the faculty member, I will quickly go over this | 作为教职员,我很快会研究一下 |
| 568 | and remind you. | 并提醒你, |
| 569 | What did the state do in the past? | 国家过去做了什么? |
| 570 | I started with this picture of now | 我从这张照片开始 |
| 571 | the state wants to redefine what marriage is. | 国家想要重新定义什么是婚姻。 |
| 572 | They wanna up fertility. | 他们想提高生育率。 |
| 573 | They wanna make it harder to marry. | 他们想更难结婚。 |
| 574 | They wanna make it cheaper to marry. | 他们想让结婚更便宜 |
| 575 | That's the goal. | 这就是目标。 |
| 576 | And there are many ways in which, since 1979, | 自1979年以来,有许多方面 |
| 577 | the government has made very specific interventions. | 政府采取了非常具体的干预措施。 |
| 578 | It's not all stepping back. | 这不是所有的退缩。 |
| 579 | So the 1980 marriage law was very important | 所以1980年的婚姻法很重要 |
| 580 | because it really put no fault divorce in the front burner, | 因为它真的没有错离婚 在前燃烧器, |
| 581 | changed some of the wording. | 修改了一些措辞。 |
| 582 | And they also, at the same time, | 同时,他们也 |
| 583 | took away the jating shen fen | 带走了欢乐的沈芬 |
| 584 | so that in marriage, you weren't matching on political purity | 所以在婚姻中,你并不符合政治纯洁 |
| 585 | and you could cross, you could marry across political lines. | 你可以跨越政治界限结婚 |
| 586 | Also big, big change, of course, | 当然,还有大改变 |
| 587 | is people could move around. | 人们可以移动。 |
| 588 | And this is the story for rural people more than urban, | 这对农村人来说比城市还重要 |
| 589 | although what we know happened | 虽然我们知道的事情发生了 |
| 590 | in the late 70s and the 90s, | 在七十年代和九十年代, |
| 591 | many families that had been separated were able to reunite. | 许多被分离的家庭得以团聚。 |
| 592 | So these allowance of greater freedom | 因此,这些允许更大的自由 |
| 593 | to choose your place of residence | 选择居住地 |
| 594 | also impacted what happened. | 也影响了所发生的一切。 |
| 595 | Then we could skip ahead to the new, | 然后我们可以跳到新的, |
| 596 | this is the article, if you wanna look at it later, | 这是这篇文章, 如果你想以后再看, |
| 597 | the marriage law in 2001. | 2001年颁布的婚姻法。 |
| 598 | In response to this surge of divorces, | 面对离婚的激增 |
| 599 | the people, central government leaders | 人民、中央政府领导人 |
| 600 | and particularly women in the Women's Federation | 妇女,特别是妇女联合会中的妇女 |
| 601 | wanted to tighten it and they wanted to rewrite the law | 想要收紧它 他们想要改写法律 |
| 602 | to make it harder to get a divorce. | 更难离婚 |
| 603 | They thought if they could make it harder, | 他们认为如果他们能 使它更难, |
| 604 | it would reduce the level. | 这将降低水平。 |
| 605 | And this sparked a very, very animated debate | 这引发了一个非常非常动画化的辩论 |
| 606 | which reflected the new China | 它反映了新中国 |
| 607 | where people do have private lives, | 在那里人们有私人生活, |
| 608 | where people are more willing | 在人们更愿意的地方 |
| 609 | to give the other person an alternative | 给予另一人另一种选择 |
| 610 | as long as it doesn't impinge on them. | 只要它不伤害他们。 |
| 611 | And in the end, they did not make it harder to get divorce. | 最后,他们并没有使离婚更加困难。 |
| 612 | Instead, as I'm emphasizing, | 相反,正如我强调, |
| 613 | what happened with these interpretations | 这些解释是怎么回事 |
| 614 | is what I call the triple turn. | 我称之为三转 |
| 615 | 2001, 2003 and 2011. | 2001年、2003年和2011年。 |
| 616 | The other key, which relates to the first diagram, | 另一个关键是第一个图 |
| 617 | is 2003, maybe the younger people in this room | 是2003年,也许在这个房间里的年轻人 |
| 618 | can hardly believe it, but until 2003, | 很难相信 但直到2003年 |
| 619 | if you wanted to marry or if you wanted a divorce, | 如果你想结婚 或者你想离婚 |
| 620 | you had to go to your employer and get a permission. | 您必须去你的雇主 并获得许可。 |
| 621 | And this was a huge constraint. | 这是一个巨大的制约。 |
| 622 | Even in a city like Shanghai | 即使在上海这样的城市 |
| 623 | where I was doing most of the field work, | 在那里我做了大部分实地工作, |
| 624 | it was too embarrassing. | 太尴尬了 |
| 625 | You would have to go to your, | 你会不得不去你的, |
| 626 | and then if you'd left your unit and you were in private, | 如果你离开你的部队 私下呆着 |
| 627 | who were you gonna go back to? | 你要回去找谁? |
| 628 | You have to go back and say, I want a divorce. | 你得回去说 我要离婚 |
| 629 | And in 2003, the Min Zheng-ji changed the rule. | 而在2003年,民国时期的郑济改制. |
| 630 | And if you go back to the first table, that graph, | 如果你回到第一张桌子 那张图 |
| 631 | you'll see the spike. | 你会看到钉子。 |
| 632 | It really accelerates. | 它真的加速。 |
| 633 | But they have unanticipated consequences. | 但它们会产生意想不到的后果。 |
| 634 | In the one child policy, what they're basically doing | 在一个孩子政策中, 他们基本上在做什么 |
| 635 | is separating sexuality and fertility, as I've argued. | 就像我所说的 性与生育是分开的 |
| 636 | The state wants to control the population, | 国家想要控制人口, |
| 637 | the fertility of the population, | 人口生育率, |
| 638 | but not the sexual behavior of the participants. | 但不是参与者的性行为。 |
| 639 | So when they move in that direction, | 所以当他们朝着那个方向移动时, |
| 640 | you end up really stimulating what we in a shorthand | 你最终真正刺激 我们的短手 |
| 641 | will call the sexual revolution. | 将称为性革命。 |
| 642 | Then right by removing fault from divorce, | 然后通过解除离婚的过失, |
| 643 | they loosened the constraints on divorce | 他们放宽了离婚的限制 |
| 644 | by eliminating the need for the employer | 通过消除对雇主的需求 |
| 645 | or the village head to give you permission to divorce, | 或者村长允许你们离婚, |
| 646 | further revolutionized divorce. | 进一步革命性的离婚。 |
| 647 | And by de-politicizing marriage life and reducing supervision, | 通过非政治化的婚姻生活和减少监督, |
| 648 | they weaken the stigma of non-marital sexual intimacy. | 它们削弱了非婚生性行为的耻辱感。 |
| 649 | And then talk about the triple turn. | 然后说三转法轮. |
| 650 | And by treating marriage as a contract | 将婚姻视为契约 |
| 651 | between willing partners with individual property rights, | 在愿意拥有个人财产权的伙伴之间, |
| 652 | like other contracts, they threw out | 和其他合同一样,他们都放弃了 |
| 653 | this long established practice | 这一长期惯例 |
| 654 | of protecting conjugal property. | 保护夫妻财产。 |
| 655 | And if there's time or afterwards, | 如果有时间或之后, |
| 656 | those of you who are in the legal field, | 你们中在法律领域的人, |
| 657 | I'm really, really interested to hear your view. | 我真的,真的很感兴趣 听到你的观点。 |
| 658 | Between 1953 and really 19, | 1953年到19年之间 |
| 659 | I would say the end of the 80s, | 我要说80年代的结束 |
| 660 | the Chinese government systematically stood on the side | 中国政府一贯站在一边 |
| 661 | of communal conjugal property. | 夫妻共有财产。 |
| 662 | So that this meant particularly for rural women, | 因此,这尤其意味着农村妇女, |
| 663 | particularly rural women who are widowed, | 特别是丧偶的农村妇女, |
| 664 | they didn't have to have bought the house. | 他们不用买房子 |
| 665 | Their parents didn't have to have bought the house. | 他们的父母不必买房子。 |
| 666 | Their name didn't have to occur on any document. | 他们的名字不必出现在任何文件中. |
| 667 | Instead, by being the woman who built the family, | 相反,通过做女人 建立家庭, |
| 668 | made the family, it was her home. | 这是她家 |
| 669 | And when her husband died before, | 当她丈夫死前, |
| 670 | if her husband died before her, | 如果她丈夫死在她面前的话 |
| 671 | his siblings and relatives could not seize the house. | 他的兄弟姐妹和亲戚不能没收房子。 |
| 672 | So this was a major, major gain for rural women, | 因此,这是农村妇女的一大收益, |
| 673 | that by being the wife in this home that they had built, | 在他们所建造的家中,当妻子, |
| 674 | it was hers. | 这是她的。 |
| 675 | And what this, these series of legal decisions since 2001 | 然而,2001年以来的一系列法律裁决 |
| 676 | has moved it to what we call | 已经移动到我们所谓的 |
| 677 | formal versus substantive equality. | 形式上与实质上的平等。 |
| 678 | So that now the rule, as many of you know, | 所以,现在的规则, 许多人都知道, |
| 679 | is if the house that one lives in, | 如果那个房子住着的话 |
| 680 | and this is particularly in the cities, | 这在城市中尤为突出, |
| 681 | but it's increasingly in these urbanized rural areas, | 但是,它越来越多地在这些城市化的农村地区, |
| 682 | is in the name of the son at the time, | 是以当时的儿子的名义, |
| 683 | before his marriage, it's his house. | 在他结婚之前 这是他的房子 |
| 684 | And that's it, it's his house. | 就是这样,这是他的房子。 |
| 685 | He can decide to add the wife's name, | 他可以决定加上妻子的名字, |
| 686 | but that's rather rare. | 但这是相当罕见的。 |
| 687 | And very few women or women's families are willing to ask | 很少有女人或家庭愿意问 |
| 688 | that the daughter's name be married, | 女儿的名字是结婚的, |
| 689 | I mean, sorry, be added to a deed. | 我的意思是,对不起, 加入到一份契约中。 |
| 690 | Then it goes, if there is a divorce | 如果发生离婚,那就去 |
| 691 | and the parents didn't necessarily give it outright | 父母未必直接给它 |
| 692 | as a gift to the son, but they invested in it, | 作为对儿子的礼物,但他们投资了它。 |
| 693 | at the time of divorce, it will be allocated | 离婚时,将分配 |
| 694 | to people in proportion to the amount | 按金额比例 |
| 695 | that they invested in the home. | 他们投资在家中。 |
| 696 | So you can have the situation in which the wife | 这样你就可以有妻子的处境了 |
| 697 | has no claim to her home, | 对她家没有要求, |
| 698 | but her in-laws have a claim to it | 但她的姻亲有权利要求 |
| 699 | because they're the ones who paid the most. | 因为他们是支付最多的。 |
| 700 | And this was, institutionally is one of the things | 这在制度上是其中之一 |
| 701 | that I find most important, | 我发现最重要的, |
| 702 | that these various steps by the reforming, | 改革的这些步骤, |
| 703 | opening and reform government, | 开放和改革政府, |
| 704 | particularly since 2011, | 特别是2011年以来, |
| 705 | have moved really very extreme position | 已经移动了非常极端的位置 |
| 706 | of making home ownership, | 拥有房屋; |
| 707 | which is so much at the core of the marital agreement | 这是婚姻协议的核心 |
| 708 | and the marital home, | 和婚姻之家, |
| 709 | something that is highly individualized, | 高度个性化的东西, |
| 710 | not only privatized, but individualized. | 不仅私有化,而且个性化。 |
| 711 | And this goes against not only what the Chinese government | 这不但违背了中国政府 |
| 712 | tried to do so systematically between 53 | 在53年之间曾试图系统地这样做。 |
| 713 | and really the end of the 80s, | 而实际上80年代末, |
| 714 | but it also is in contrast to what we see | 但与我们所看到的相反 |
| 715 | in other parts of the world, | 在世界其他地区, |
| 716 | where a recognition of communal property | 承认共同财产 |
| 717 | that is by virtue of living in it and making it your home, | 那是因为生活在其中 并使之成为你的家, |
| 718 | you have rights to it. | 你有权这样做 |
| 719 | And it could be for men or women. | 也可能是男人还是女人 |
| 720 | And China's moving away from that in this arena, | 中国正在远离这个舞台 |
| 721 | {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}去一个很合法的地方 | |
| 722 | and we can talk more about. | 我们可以多谈谈 |
| 723 | So right now, are they going to turn back the clock? | 所以,现在,他们会 调回时钟? |
| 724 | That picture that I showed you at the beginning, | 我一开始给你看的那张照片 |
| 725 | the civil code now requires a cooling off period. | 民法现在需要冷却期 |
| 726 | In 2021, as we know, they now are allowing, | 2021年,我们知道, 他们现在允许, |
| 727 | even encouraging a third birth. | 甚至鼓励第三次生育。 |
| 728 | In 2022, Ma Baoli, that's BlueEd, the gay dating site. | 2022年,马宝丽,即BlueEd,同性恋约会网站. |
| 729 | He stepped down as the CEO | 他辞去CEO的职务 |
| 730 | and BlueEd has now been delisted. | 而BlueEd现在已被除名。 |
| 731 | This is one of many ways in which we can see | 这是我们可以看到的很多方法之一 |
| 732 | a tolerance be eroded, say. | 比如说,宽容被侵蚀。 |
| 733 | And then this last one, which is about surrogacy, | 然后是最后一个 关于代孕, |
| 734 | which is part of this discussion | 这是本次讨论的一部分 |
| 735 | and how the government has now decided | 以及政府如何决定 |
| 736 | that surrogacy is something or artificial, | 代孕是东西或人工的, |
| 737 | different kinds of interventions will be legal | 不同类型的干预是法律上的 |
| 738 | and will be covered for insurance, | 并享受保险, |
| 739 | although not for single women who want to freeze their eggs. | 虽然不是给想冻蛋的单身女性 |
| 740 | That decision was reaffirmed last July. | 去年7月重申了这项决定。 |
| 741 | So they still are standing on the side | 所以他们还是站在一边 |
| 742 | of assisted reproduction only for married couples. | 仅对已婚夫妇进行辅助生殖。 |
| 743 | And then this last one, which I flagged, | 最后一张,我标注, |
| 744 | the government hoping to raise birth rate. | 政府希望提高出生率。 |
| 745 | So can these behaviors be re-inversed? | 因此,这些行为可以被重述吗? |
| 746 | This is the book, what I called The Triple Turn. | 这就是书,我称之为三转。 |
| 747 | Can they really turn away from marriage | 他们真的能远离婚姻吗? |
| 748 | as a voluntary contract between two consenting adults? | 作为两个同意的成年人之间的自愿合同? |
| 749 | Can they return to closer surveillance of sexual intimacy | 他们能回到更密切的性亲密监视中吗? |
| 750 | and controls over marital fertility? | 控制婚姻生育力? |
| 751 | And can they have great, | 他们能有伟大的, |
| 752 | can they move to a greater legal protection | 他们能否获得更大的法律保护? |
| 753 | of communal conjugal property? | 夫妻共有财产? |
| 754 | And those are the three questions. | 这就是三个问题。 |
| 755 | Can they put the genie back in the bottle? | 他们能把精灵放回瓶子里吗? |
| 756 | This is a picture from the Minzhengbu, | 这是明正布的照片 |
| 757 | which was in Shanghai in September of this year, | 这年9月在上海 |
| 758 | the happy couple who have announced | 欢乐的情侣宣布 |
| 759 | they're at the marriage registry. | 他们在婚姻登记处 |
| 760 | I also went to the marriage registry, | 我也去过婚姻登记处 |
| 761 | I think it was 50 times, | 我认为是50次, |
| 762 | and watched what was going on there. | 看着那里发生了什么 |
| 763 | I don't think so. | 亦不见. |
| 764 | This is a quickly, | 这么快 |
| 765 | and then you do want the Q&A to start in two minutes. | 然后,你确实希望 QQA在两分钟内开始。 |
| 766 | This is from a survey done in 2010 and 2015 | 这是2010年和2015年进行的调查的结果。 |
| 767 | on cohabitation. | 同居关系。 |
| 768 | And you can see that in the period, | 你可以看到,在这个时期, |
| 769 | this is the birth year. | 这是出生年份。 |
| 770 | So these are the people born in 1940. | 这就是1940年出生的人。 |
| 771 | Cohabitation among those who are married | 已婚者的同居 |
| 772 | in that survey is very low, | 在那项调查中, |
| 773 | and it goes up, up, up. | 它会上升,上升,上升。 |
| 774 | It's not that it didn't exist, | 不是说它不存在 |
| 775 | but we're talking 5%. | 但我们说的是5%。 |
| 776 | And now it's up to about 30%. | 而今约三成. |
| 777 | And in some place, | 在某个地方 |
| 778 | I don't know, in Beijing, | 我不知道,在北京 |
| 779 | because I haven't spent as much time here. | 因为我没有花那么多时间在这里。 |
| 780 | In Shanghai, I would say it's the norm | 在上海,我会说这是规矩 |
| 781 | that couples who are planning to marry will cohabit. | 打算结婚的夫妇将同居。 |
| 782 | This is, and it's widely accepted. | 这是,它被广泛接受。 |
| 783 | There's also increased cohabitation, | 同居也有所增加 |
| 784 | which isn't even a step towards marriage, | 这甚至不是婚姻的一步, |
| 785 | but seen as acceptable in young adult life. | 但是在年轻的成年人生活中是可以接受的。 |
| 786 | When I showed this slide to the students at Su Shimin, | 当我给苏世民的学生看幻灯片时 |
| 787 | they immediately said, | 他们立刻说: |
| 788 | where's the control for cost of housing? | 房费控制在哪里? |
| 789 | They said, maybe this has nothing to do | 他们说,也许这没什么关系 |
| 790 | with a sexual revolution. | 与性革命。 |
| 791 | Maybe it's just about high cost of housing. | 也许这只是关于高成本的住房。 |
| 792 | I am sure that the high cost of housing has an impact, | 我确信,高昂的住房成本有影响, |
| 793 | but I don't think that's what's driving | 但我不认为这是驱动 |
| 794 | people's decision to cohabit before marriage. | 人们决定婚前同居 |
| 795 | I may be wrong. | 我可能错了。 |
| 796 | That's a hypothesis to test. | 这是一个假设测试。 |
| 797 | But that was their response. | 但这是他们的反应。 |
| 798 | The last table respond is a thing on this, | 最后一张桌子就是一个问题 |
| 799 | which many of you mentioned, | 你们中的许多人,曾说: |
| 800 | which is, can China raise its birth rate? | 也就是说,中国能否提高出生率? |
| 801 | And this shows you what's happening | 这说明发生了什么 |
| 802 | in the rest of East Asia. | 在东亚其他地区。 |
| 803 | This is now. | 这是现在。 |
| 804 | Below two is below replacement fertility. | 以下两项低于更替生育率。 |
| 805 | And China has been below replacement since 1995. | 而中国自1995年起一直低于更替水平. |
| 806 | So China is one of many East Asian societies, | 因此,中国是许多东亚社会之一, |
| 807 | which has what we call sub replacement fertility. | 我们称之为亚更替生育率。 |
| 808 | And it's very low and it's persistent | 并且非常低,而且很持久 |
| 809 | and they don't think it's going to change. | 他们认为不会改变 |
| 810 | And I don't think that this kind of effort | 我不认为 这样的努力 |
| 811 | by the government to increase the third births | 政府增加第三胎 |
| 812 | is going to shake the TFR above that line. | 将震动TFR 超过该线。 |
| 813 | So will there be a more protection | 所以还有更多的保护 |
| 814 | of the communal property? | 共有财产? |
| 815 | This is an open question and many of you | 这是一个未决问题,你们很多人 |
| 816 | in the audience either tonight | 无论是在观众今晚 |
| 817 | or maybe you'll send me an email | 或者你会发邮件给我 |
| 818 | can give me a sense of whether you think | 能让我感觉到你是否认为 |
| 819 | the state will move in that direction | 国家将朝着这个方向前进 |
| 820 | to try to move away from this obsession | 试图摆脱这种痴迷 |
| 821 | with whose name is on the deed, | 与谁的名 在地契上, |
| 822 | who gave the, what percentage of the initial price | 最初价格的多少百分比 |
| 823 | came from which party. | 是从哪个派对来的 |
| 824 | I will say that there are because in the urban areas, | 我要说,有 因为在城市地区, |
| 825 | half of the parents have a daughter | 一半的父母有一个女儿 |
| 826 | that it's not simply the case that this is always | 事情不是那样的 |
| 827 | that the man is the one who has the greater claims. | 那个男人才是拥有更多权利的人 |
| 828 | That's really a rural issue. | 这是一个真正的农村问题。 |
| 829 | In the cities, it's much more equal. | 诸城中更平等. |
| 830 | And many women who are the only daughters | 还有很多女人都是独生女 |
| 831 | already have a claim to property | 已经对财产提出权利要求 |
| 832 | that will be theirs and the increase | 那是他们的份儿,也是他们的份儿。 |
| 833 | in premarital contracts, | 在婚前合同中, |
| 834 | what I've observed these last 10 years | 我观察了这十年 |
| 835 | is driven primarily by parents | 主要由父母驱动 |
| 836 | and particularly parents of daughters | 特别是女儿的父母 |
| 837 | who want the family property to remain | 想要保留家庭财产的人 |
| 838 | with their daughter and not be under the control | 和他们的女儿 而不是在控制之下 |
| 839 | of another family. | 还有另一个家庭 |
| 840 | So will there be a new culture? | 那么,是否有一个新的文化? |
| 841 | That's where we'll leave it. | 这就是我们离开的地方。 |
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