高油价下的赢家？听耶鲁教授讲碳信用的机遇与隐忧
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | Welcome everyone. | 欢迎大家 |
| 0:06 | My name is Peter Wen. | 我叫彼得·温 |
| 0:07 | I'm the Associate Director for the Yale Center of Beijing. | 我是北京耶鲁中心副主任. |
| 0:11 | And also Yang Liu is also the Associate Director for Communication for Yale Center of Beijing. | 同时杨柳还兼任北京耶鲁中心通信局副局长. |
| 0:17 | So once again, welcome to the Yale Center of Beijing. | 因此再次欢迎来到北京耶鲁中心. |
| 0:22 | So Yale Center of Beijing is actually a Yale University embassy in China | 北京耶鲁中心其实是耶鲁大学驻华大使馆 |
| 0:27 | and also the activity center here in China for Yale University. | 还有耶鲁大学在中国的活动中心 |
| 0:32 | It's 14 schools. | 这是14所学校。 |
| 0:34 | And today it is our privilege to welcome Professor Luke Sanford here to give you a lecture. | 今天我们很荣幸欢迎卢克·桑福德教授 来给你讲课 |
| 0:42 | And also Professor Luke Sanford actually arrived in Beijing yesterday. | 还有卢克·桑福德教授 昨天真的到了北京 |
展开字幕全文（668 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome everyone. | 欢迎大家 |
| 2 | My name is Peter Wen. | 我叫彼得·温 |
| 3 | I'm the Associate Director for the Yale Center of Beijing. | 我是北京耶鲁中心副主任. |
| 4 | And also Yang Liu is also the Associate Director for Communication for Yale Center of Beijing. | 同时杨柳还兼任北京耶鲁中心通信局副局长. |
| 5 | So once again, welcome to the Yale Center of Beijing. | 因此再次欢迎来到北京耶鲁中心. |
| 6 | So Yale Center of Beijing is actually a Yale University embassy in China | 北京耶鲁中心其实是耶鲁大学驻华大使馆 |
| 7 | and also the activity center here in China for Yale University. | 还有耶鲁大学在中国的活动中心 |
| 8 | It's 14 schools. | 这是14所学校。 |
| 9 | And today it is our privilege to welcome Professor Luke Sanford here to give you a lecture. | 今天我们很荣幸欢迎卢克·桑福德教授 来给你讲课 |
| 10 | And also Professor Luke Sanford actually arrived in Beijing yesterday. | 还有卢克·桑福德教授 昨天真的到了北京 |
| 11 | So this is his second day here in Beijing. | 所以这是他在北京的第二天。 |
| 12 | He's still experiencing a little bit of jet lag, but I think he is ready to go. | 他现在还有点时差 但我觉得他已经准备好了 |
| 13 | And just one thing. | 还有一件事 |
| 14 | We just met a couple, like an hour before. | 我们刚认识一对夫妇 就像一小时前 |
| 15 | So Luke Sanford can actually say pretty fluent Chinese, but he would use English for this lecture. | 因此卢克·桑福德实际上可以说出相当流利的中文,但他会用英语来做这个讲座. |
| 16 | So if you have any questions after the session or you want to ask in Chinese, | 所以,如果你有任何问题 在会后 或者你想问中文, |
| 17 | I think Luke is capable to answer your question or at least hear your question and answer in English. | 我认为卢克能回答你的问题 或者至少能听到你用英语回答的问题 |
| 18 | And you can see from the TV. | 你可以从电视上看到。 |
| 19 | So today we have an online session. | 所以今天我们有一个在线会话。 |
| 20 | The online session is only limited to the program attendees for tomorrow, Luke Sanford's program. | 在线会话仅限于明天的节目参与者,卢克·桑福德的节目. |
| 21 | So it is not open to the general public. | 因此,它不向公众开放。 |
| 22 | So I just want to give you an explanation about the online participants. | 所以我想给你们解释一下网上的参与者。 |
| 23 | So, okay. | 所以,还好。 |
| 24 | So I will give the microphone to Luke to start the session. | 所以我把麦克风交给卢克 开始开会 |
| 25 | Thank you, Peter. | 谢谢你,彼得。 |
| 26 | Hello, my name is Luke Sanford. | 你好 我叫卢克·桑福德 |
| 27 | I am a associate professor at Yale University. | 我是耶鲁大学的副教授 |
| 28 | And today, I'm sorry, I can't speak in Chinese for you. | 今天,对不起,我不能为您说中文。 |
| 29 | Because my Chinese is not good enough. | 因为我的中文不够好 |
| 30 | But at least I can start to speak for you. | 但至少我可以开始为你说话。 |
| 31 | So I'm going to switch to English now. | 所以我现在改用英语。 |
| 32 | Because unlike you, unlike many of you, I'm not bilingual enough to talk about research in my second language. | 因为不像你们,不像你们中许多人,我不够双语,不能用我的第二语言谈论研究. |
| 33 | But like Peter said, I would love to answer any questions that you have or try to understand and answer questions you have in Chinese. | 但是,正如彼得所说,我愿意回答任何你有的问题或试图理解的问题,并回答你用中文提出的问题. |
| 34 | So today, I'll be telling you a little bit about nature-based carbon credits and carbon markets. | 所以,今天,我将告诉你一些关于基于自然的碳信用额和碳市场。 |
| 35 | I think it's a topic of increasing importance. | 我认为这是一个越来越重要的话题. |
| 36 | Just to demonstrate, like Peter said, I flew over here, arrived yesterday morning. | 就像彼得说的 我昨天早上飞过来 |
| 37 | So I'm just waking up right now. | 所以我才刚醒过来 |
| 38 | Hopefully, I'll get more awake as we go. | 希望我们走的时候能更清醒 |
| 39 | It's just after 7 a.m. my time. | 刚过了早上7点 |
| 40 | But I flew over here, and often when you take a flight, you have the option of offsetting your flight's emissions using carbon credits. | 但是,我飞过来了, 当你搭乘飞机时, 你可以选择用碳排放量抵消飞行的排放量。 |
| 41 | Has anyone ever offset your emissions with carbon credits? | 有没有人用碳排放量来抵消你的排放量? |
| 42 | We have a couple of people who have done this, which seems like maybe the right thing to do for the world. | 我们有几个人做了这件事, 这似乎是对世界的正确选择。 |
| 43 | I didn't offset my emissions from the overview. | 我没有抵消我的排放量 从概览。 |
| 44 | So that's one way that people engage with carbon credits and carbon markets. | 这就是人们参与碳信用额和碳市场的一种方式。 |
| 45 | A second way is there are many firms, companies, that have made net zero commitments, which means they want their emissions in total to be zero by some date. | 第二种方式是,许多公司作出了净零承诺,这意味着它们希望到某个日期它们的总排放量为零。 |
| 46 | For Shell, it was the year 2050. | 对壳牌来说,是2050年. |
| 47 | And you might think, how can a fossil fuel company have zero emissions? | 你可能会认为 化石燃料公司怎么会有零排放? |
| 48 | It seems like not possible. | 这似乎是不可能的。 |
| 49 | And so the way that they plan to offset their emissions is by purchasing carbon credits. | 因此,他们计划抵消排放的方式是购买碳入计量。 |
| 50 | So the emissions that they're not able to reduce themselves, they will pay someone else to reduce their emissions or to sequester some carbon. | 因此,他们无法减少自己的排放, 他们会付钱给其他人来减少他们的排放, 或者固化一些碳。 |
| 51 | They make it so that in total, the emissions that they put out into the atmosphere and then the emissions they pay someone else to reduce or sequester some to zero. | 它们使得排放到大气中, 排放到大气中, 然后排放到其他人身上, 将部分排放减少到零。 |
| 52 | Now, recently, we've seen more headlines that look like this. | 最近,我们看到更多这样的头条新闻。 |
| 53 | This is a headline that says Shell scrapped its 100 million carbon offset plan, where they said we're not going to spend 100 million dollars every year on carbon offsets. | 这是一条头条,上面说壳牌公司废除了它一亿碳抵消计划, 他们说我们不会每年花一亿去碳抵消。 |
| 54 | And then just earlier this week, Shell said they don't think that they're going to be able to be net zero by the year 2050 because they don't think that carbon credits work well enough. | 然后本周早些时候,壳牌公司说,他们认为到2050年他们不会成为净零,因为他们认为碳信用额不够有效。 |
| 55 | And so we'll get into this a little bit, but I'll show you some other headlines to this effect. | 所以,我们再谈一点, 但我会给你们看一些其他的头条新闻。 |
| 56 | Credit credibility threatens forests. | 信用信誉威胁到森林。 |
| 57 | Action needed to make carbon offsets conservation work for climate change. | 需要采取行动使碳抵消气候变化的保护工作。 |
| 58 | Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program, which I'll tell you a little bit about later. | 加州的森林碳抵消计划 系统过度认证 我稍后再告诉你 |
| 59 | Methodological issues with deforestation baselines compromise the integrity of carbon credits. | 与毁林基线有关的方法学问题损害碳入计量的完整性。 |
| 60 | These are a number of research papers published in around the last five years by some of my friends and colleagues using robot sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects. | 这些是由我的一些朋友和同事在过去五年左右发表的一些研究论文,他们利用机器人感知来量化加利福尼亚森林碳抵消项目的额外气候效益. |
| 61 | There's been a lot of academic interest in how well these carbon offsets actually work or what effects they have on the landscape. | 对于这些碳抵消的实际效果 或它们对地貌的影响, 学术上有很多兴趣。 |
| 62 | And so here we'll switch a little bit away from the buyers of carbon offsets, which could be you. | 所以在这里,我们从碳抵消的买家那里 切换一下,这可能是你。 |
| 63 | It could be emitting companies like Shell and focus more on what's going on with the producers of carbon offsets, the people who are being paid to reduce their emissions. | 它可能是像壳牌公司这样的排放公司, 并更专注于碳抵消量的生产者, 即那些被支付减少排放的人。 |
| 64 | And so in part, because of all this criticism of carbon offsets that's taken place, now we've seen growth in companies where it's their job to rate carbon credits. | 因此,部分地,由于所有这些对碳抵消的批评, 我们看到了公司的增长, 公司的工作是给碳信用额评分。 |
| 65 | So if you want to go and purchase carbon credits on the carbon market, you can now go and look up on several different websites what the rating of different carbon credits is. | 所以,如果你想在碳市场上购买碳信用额, 你可以去查看几个不同的网站, 不同的碳信用额的评级是什么。 |
| 66 | These are rated similar to bonds, so they go from AAA to D based on how high quality they are. | 这些评级与债券相似,因此它们从AAA到D都根据质量有多高. |
| 67 | And then we have rebuttals from those who are producing carbon credits, saying that that previous criticism is off base. | 然后,我们得到了来自那些生产碳信用额的人的反驳, 说之前的批评是没有根据的。 |
| 68 | But if we look at what's happened in the voluntary carbon market, where most of these credits are bought and sold, we see a gradual trend upward in sales of carbon credits. | 但是,如果我们看看自愿碳市场发生的情况, 大部分碳信用额是在这里买卖的, 我们看到碳信用额的销售逐渐上升。 |
| 69 | And then over the last three years or so, a huge decrease in the number of credits that are being transacted, bought and sold. | 然后在过去三年左右, 交易、买卖的信贷数量大幅下降。 |
| 70 | And so something is going on here. | 所以这里发生了一些事情。 |
| 71 | And maybe the biggest headline of those papers that I showed you was published right at the end of 2022, beginning of 2023. | 或许我给你们看的论文中最大的头条 是2022年底,2023年初出版的。 |
| 72 | Maybe caused this market to really shrink. | 也许这市场真的收缩了 |
| 73 | And so there's a lot going on in this world, and I hope that in this talk, I'll be able to take you through part of what's going on in the world of carbon credits. | (笑声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) |
| 74 | And then I'll share with you some of my recent research in this area. | 然后,我将分享我最近在这方面的一些研究。 |
| 75 | So in today's talk, we'll go through in a little bit more detail what carbon credits are, how they're supposed to work. | 因此,在今天的演讲中,我们将更详细地谈谈碳信用值是什么,它们应该如何运作。 |
| 76 | I'll tell you about baselines and additionality, which is sort of the two fundamental core concepts behind carbon credits. | 我告诉你们基线和额外性, 这是碳信用额背后的两个基本核心概念。 |
| 77 | I'll tell you about a program that's gaining a lot of traction right now, which is called Jurisdictional Rent Plus. | 我将告诉你一个程序, 它正在获得很多的动力 现在,这叫做 管辖租金加。 |
| 78 | There are huge commitments in the billions of dollars to Jurisdictional Rent Plus. | 数十亿美元的承诺 用于地租加号 |
| 79 | And I'll tell you about a slightly different flavor of carbon credits, which are carbon credits in compliance markets. | (笑声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声)(掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) (掌声) ( |
| 80 | And I'll tell you about some of my research, which uses satellite imagery and machine learning to assess how well these carbon credits actually work. | 我向你们介绍我的一些研究, 这些研究利用卫星图像和机器学习来评估这些碳信用额的实际效果。 |
| 81 | And I'll wrap up and hopefully I'll leave some time for questions at the end. | 我最后会说完 希望最后能留点时间提问 |
| 82 | So to get started, I want to go through some of the core terms in the world of carbon credits. | 所以,为了开始,我想通过一些 碳信用额的核心条件。 |
| 83 | The first one is a baseline. | 第一个是基线。 |
| 84 | The baseline is an estimate of the carbon emissions or the carbon sequestration that would have happened without some carbon project. | 基准是对碳排放或碳固存的估算,如果没有一些碳项目,本来会发生。 |
| 85 | So if I pay you to do something, the baseline is what you would have done if I did not pay you. | 所以如果我付钱让你做点什么 基线就是如果我不给你钱 你就会做的 |
| 86 | And for these carbon credit projects, often the companies that are selling carbon credits are reducing their deforestation on their land. | 而对于这些碳信用项目,出售碳信用的公司往往在减少其土地上的毁林。 |
| 87 | And the baseline is how much deforestation they would have allowed had someone not paid them to reduce it. | 基线是,如果有人不付钱减少森林砍伐,他们会允许多少森林砍伐。 |
| 88 | Additionality is the difference between that baseline, what someone would have done, and what they did in the world of carbon credits. | 额外性是这一基线、人们本会做什么以及他们在碳信用额世界中做什么之间的区别。 |
| 89 | So those are the changes that are directly attributable to the project. | 因此,这些是可直接归因于项目的变化。 |
| 90 | A carbon credit is one ton of carbon that is not in the atmosphere because of the project. | 碳信用是一吨碳,由于该项目而不在大气中. |
| 91 | So one carbon credit usually amounts to one ton. | 因此,一个碳信用通常相当于一吨。 |
| 92 | Now a couple of other terms that won't be the main focus of this talk but are important in the world of carbon credits are permanence, | 现在,一些其他的术语 将不会成为这个话题的主要焦点 但在碳信用额的世界中很重要的是永久性, |
| 93 | which is how long does that carbon stay out of the atmosphere? | 碳在大气中保持多久? |
| 94 | I could pay you to not emit some carbon right now, but you might go and emit that carbon next year. | 我可以付你钱不排放一些碳 现在,但你可能会去排放 碳明年。 |
| 95 | And that way, in that sense, that reduced emission was not very permanent. | 从这个意义上说,减少排放并不是永久性的。 |
| 96 | And often this is a criticism of nature-based carbon credits, where people say if you pay someone to preserve a forest for five years, | 这常常是对基于自然的碳信用额的批评, 人们说如果你付钱给某人来保护森林5年, |
| 97 | and then they go cut it down, how much carbon did you really prevent from going into the atmosphere? | 然后他们去削减它, 你真正防止了多少碳进入大气层? |
| 98 | So more permanence is usually better. | 因此,更多的持久性通常是更好的。 |
| 99 | Leakage is another, in my opinion, understudied and underappreciated issue with carbon credits, | 渗漏是另一个问题,我认为, 研究不足 和不够重视 关于碳信用额, |
| 100 | which is if I pay someone to not cut down their forest, how much of that deforestation occurs in nearby places? | 如果我付钱让别人不要砍掉他们的森林, 那么这些森林有多少发生在附近的地方? |
| 101 | If I was going to cut down a forest and plant some crops there, and then someone pays me to not cut down that forest, | 如果我要砍掉森林,种一些庄稼 然后有人付我钱 不砍掉森林, |
| 102 | how much of my neighbors cut down more forests so they can plant the crops that I didn't plant? | 我的邻居们有多少人砍伐了更多的森林 这样他们就能种上我没有种植的作物? |
| 103 | And if that deforestation is just displaced to somewhere else, it's not much of a net benefit to the atmosphere. | 如果森林砍伐只是迁移到别的地方, 那对大气层来说,这没什么好处。 |
| 104 | And then the last sort of major issue that people are concerned about is double counting, | 然后人们关注的最后一类重大问题是双重计算, |
| 105 | which is can the same carbon credit be used more than once? | 同样的碳信用额可以不止一次使用? |
| 106 | And if it can be used more than once, it's not valid the second time that it's used. | 而若能多次使用,则第二次使用无效. |
| 107 | Because one ton of sequestration shouldn't be used to offset more than one ton of emissions, | 由于一吨固存不应用来抵消一吨以上的排放量, |
| 108 | and you don't have a balanced equipment. | 而你没有平衡的设备。 |
| 109 | But today, we're really going to focus on these two, baselines and additionality. | 但是今天,我们真的要专注于这两个,基线和额外性。 |
| 110 | And so let's sort of look at how carbon markets work overall, sort of the life cycle of a carbon credit. | 让我们来看看碳市场的总体运作, 碳信用的生命周期。 |
| 111 | So we have some emitting entity. | 所以,我们有一些排放实体。 |
| 112 | It could be an airline, it could be a power generating plant, | 可能是航空公司,也可能是发电站 |
| 113 | it could be someone with lots of vehicles. | 可能是有很多车辆的人 |
| 114 | And they maybe made a net zero commitment. | 他们可能做出了净零承诺。 |
| 115 | And so they're going to purchase some carbon credits to meet their net zero commitment. | 所以他们要购买一些碳信用额 来兑现他们的净零承诺。 |
| 116 | Those carbon credits are going to fund, for the most part in many markets, forest carbon projects. | 这些碳信用额将在许多市场上为森林碳项目提供资金。 |
| 117 | And those projects can take the form of afforestation, reforestation, forest regeneration, | 这些项目可以采取造林、再造林、森林再生等形式。 |
| 118 | where someone plants new forests, and those trees pull carbon out of the atmosphere. | 那里有人种植新森林 那些树从大气中取出碳 |
| 119 | It can take the form of improved forest management, where people manage their forests, | 它可以采取改进森林管理的形式,人们管理自己的森林, |
| 120 | so that those forests sequester more carbon. | 这样这些森林就能吸收更多的碳。 |
| 121 | Or it could be in the world of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation. | 也可能是在减少毁林和退化所致排放量的世界。 |
| 122 | It could be just preventing forests from being cut down in the first place. | 它可能只是防止森林在一开始被砍伐. |
| 123 | So we'll pay someone to do one of these activities. | 所以我们会付钱给别人做其中一项活动。 |
| 124 | And those activities are going to make sure that less carbon ends up in the atmosphere. | 并且这些活动将保证 减少碳在大气中。 |
| 125 | So I buy a carbon credit, it goes to someone who's going to manage their forests, | 所以我买了碳信用,它去一个人 谁去管理他们的森林, |
| 126 | so that those forests emit less or sequester more. | 这样,这些森林释放出 更少或封存更多。 |
| 127 | Now, the trick here is that they emit less or sequester more than some scenario. | 现在,这里的诀窍是,它们释放的比某些情景少或更固闭。 |
| 128 | And how we learn about that scenario is challenging. | 而我们如何了解这个情景是具有挑战性的。 |
| 129 | Because someone can say, well, I was going to cut down all this forest. | 因为有人会说,嗯,我本来要砍掉所有的森林。 |
| 130 | And maybe they were, maybe they weren't. | 也许他们,也许他们不是。 |
| 131 | It's hard for us to tell. | 我们很难说 |
| 132 | We'll observe how much forest they cut down and compare that to the baseline, | 我们将观察他们砍伐的森林 与基线相比, |
| 133 | which is our estimate of what they would have done. | 我们估计他们会怎么做 |
| 134 | And the difference between how much forest is left and how much they would have had | 森林的残存量与森林的残存量之差 |
| 135 | is then the value of those carbon credits. | 然后是碳信用额的价值。 |
| 136 | And so that they sell that difference to a company to offset their emissions. | 这样他们就可以把差额卖给一家公司 以抵消他们的排放量 |
| 137 | And if those offsets equal the residual emissions from that firm, then we'll have net zero. | 如果这些抵消值等于那家公司的剩余排放, 那么我们就会有净零。 |
| 138 | If this works, it's a really great climate solution. | 如果这能奏效,它就是一个很好的气候解决方案。 |
| 139 | And the reason is that for many firms to reduce their own emissions, | 原因是许多公司为了减少自己的排放量, |
| 140 | so to do things like buy electric vehicles or put carbon abatement technology | 买电动车或装碳减排技术 |
| 141 | at the top of their smokestack is really expensive. | 在他们的烟囱顶部非常昂贵。 |
| 142 | In fact, it's much more expensive than paying people to not cut down their forests. | 事实上,比付人们不砍伐森林要贵得多. |
| 143 | And so if you allow people to direct their funding to the cheapest form of carbon abatement, | 如果你允许人们将资金 用于最便宜的碳减排方式 |
| 144 | it means that as a whole, we can do much more abatement or sequestration | 这意味着,从整体上看,我们可以做更多的减排或固存 |
| 145 | than we would be able to if we make firms pay for their own carbon sequestration. | 如果我们让公司为自己的碳固存支付费用,我们就无法做到这一点。 |
| 146 | And so the promise here is why we see carbon markets in many forms all over the world. | 因此,这里的承诺是,为什么我们看到碳市场在世界各地以多种形式出现。 |
| 147 | Carbon markets in the US, carbon markets in China, the voluntary carbon market. | 美国碳市场 中国碳市场 自愿碳市场. |
| 148 | But they don't always work the way that they're promised. | 但他们并不总是按承诺的方式工作. |
| 149 | So the primary issue is this issue of additionality, | 所以,首要问题是 这个额外性的问题, |
| 150 | which is the credits that projects are selling are more than the actual carbon that they've captured. | 这是项目销售的信用值 超过它们所捕获的实际碳。 |
| 151 | And that's because it's really hard for us to know what someone would have done. | 这是因为我们很难知道 别人会做什么。 |
| 152 | And if you ask someone to tell you what they would have done, | 如果你要求别人告诉你他们会做什么 |
| 153 | they might answer strategically in a way that gets them more carbon credits and more money. | 它们可能以获得更多碳信用和更多资金的方式作出战略性回应。 |
| 154 | And in general, if you're paying someone to conserve, | 总的来说,如果你付钱给别人来保存 |
| 155 | you actually might not care that much what they would have done as long as they end up conserving some area. | 你可能不在乎他们会做什么 只要他们最终保护了某个地区 |
| 156 | But in the world of carbon markets, if the credits sold are more than the carbon captured | 但是,在碳市场的世界, 如果销售的信用额 超过捕获的碳 |
| 157 | and then those carbon credits that don't correspond to real emissions reductions are then used to offset real emissions, | 然后那些与实际减排量不符的碳入计量,然后用来抵消实际排放量, |
| 158 | then the net effect of a carbon market is more carbon in the atmosphere. | 然后碳市场的净效应是大气中的碳含量增加。 |
| 159 | And that's bad for all of us. | 这对大家都不好 |
| 160 | So most of my work in this area is using statistics and sometimes machine learning to understand baselines. | 因此,我在这一领域的大部分工作是 利用统计数据,有时用机器学习来理解基线。 |
| 161 | Remember, baselines are what someone would have done without the carbon project. | 记住,没有碳项目,基线是别人会做的。 |
| 162 | So to understand how well those baselines work | 所以要了解这些基线的运作情况 |
| 163 | and whether they truly correspond to what someone would have done in a world without the project. | 以及它们是否真正符合 在没有这个项目的世界里人们会做的事。 |
| 164 | And so that issue of not being able to correctly capture what someone would have done | 所以不能正确捕捉到别人会做的事 |
| 165 | in statistics is known as the fundamental problem of causal inference. | 在统计学中被称为因果关系推论的根本问题。 |
| 166 | And that is that for a single project, for a single area, | 而对于一个单一的项目, 对于一个单一的区域, |
| 167 | you cannot observe what someone would do without the project and what they would do with the project. | 你无法观察没有项目的人会做什么 以及他们会对项目做什么 |
| 168 | You only get to observe one of those. | 你只能观察其中之一。 |
| 169 | If they implemented the project, you get to observe what they did with the project. | 如果他们执行了这个项目,你就可以观察他们如何执行这个项目。 |
| 170 | If they didn't do a project, you get to observe what they didn't do with the project. | 如果他们没有做一个项目, 你可以看到他们没有做的项目。 |
| 171 | Which means that we can never know for sure how many credits to issue. | 也就是说,我们永远不能确定要发行多少信用。 |
| 172 | We just have to estimate that quantity. | 我们只需要估计一下数量 |
| 173 | And apologies, I have to put a little bit of math on the slides. | 抱歉 我得在幻灯片上放点数学 |
| 174 | But we estimate that with this equation where we have tau is the effect of some project in carbon credits. | 但是,我们估计,通过这个公式, 我们拥有tau是碳信用额项目的效果。 |
| 175 | And it's for project I in year T. | 这是T年度I项目 |
| 176 | And that effect is the difference between what happened with the project, | 这种效果是项目发生的不同 |
| 177 | which is the carbon credits in year I, for project I in year T under the project scenario, | 在项目设想方案下,对于项目一在项目一在项目二在第一年的碳入计量, |
| 178 | and what would have happened without the project. | 还有没有这个项目会发生什么事 |
| 179 | And so this difference between what did happen and what would have happened is our estimate. | 因此,我们估计会发生什么和会发生什么之间的区别。 |
| 180 | And so all the protocols out there, of which there are over 30 now, | 所以,所有的协议 在那里,有超过30现在, |
| 181 | 30 different protocols for estimating what someone would have done or getting a baseline, | 30种不同的协议,用于估算某人会做什么或获得基线, |
| 182 | they all have to borrow information from other sources to estimate what would have been sequestered without the project. | 他们都不得不借用其他来源的资料,以估计如果没有该项目,将会扣押哪些物品。 |
| 183 | Because you can't see what would have happened and what would have not happened, | 因为你不知道会发生什么 也不会发生什么 |
| 184 | you have to guess at one of those. | 你必须猜到其中之一。 |
| 185 | And the way that you guess is by finding some other group that can give you information about the unobserved scenario. | 你猜测的方式是 找到一些其他的组, 可以给你 有关无观察情景的信息。 |
| 186 | And so I'll now dive into some of our work that's on this topic really directly. | 所以我现在将潜入一些我们的工作, 直接涉及这个话题。 |
| 187 | So in this paper, we said there are these now about 33 different protocols that you can use | 因此,在本文中,我们说现在有 大约33种不同的协议 你可以使用 |
| 188 | if you want to generate carbon credits from forests. | 如果你想从森林中获取碳信用 |
| 189 | We went and read all of them. | 我们去读了所有的 |
| 190 | Each of those protocols is somewhere between 50 and 120 pages. | 这些协议的篇幅在50至120页之间。 |
| 191 | And so we read a lot of protocols. | 所以我们读了很多协议。 |
| 192 | We focused mostly on how they generate baselines, | 我们主要侧重于如何产生基线, |
| 193 | or how they tell you what they think would have happened under no project. | 或者他们如何告诉你 他们认为会发生什么 没有项目。 |
| 194 | And we took all those pages and pages and we converted all of those into the language of statistics. | 我们把所有的页和页 转换成统计语言。 |
| 195 | So we said, this is your baseline. | 所以我们说,这是你的基线。 |
| 196 | It's your estimate of what would have happened. | 是你估计会发生什么 |
| 197 | And we can write that as an equation. | 我们可以把它写成一个方程式。 |
| 198 | And then we said, if that protocol is going to work, if it's going to deliver real carbon credits, | 然后我们说,如果这个协议能奏效, 如果它能提供真正的碳信用额, |
| 199 | what we need is for the estimate of the baseline to correspond to what someone actually would have done. | 我们需要的就是对基线的估算 与某人实际会做的事相符 |
| 200 | And for that to be true, all of these protocols need some assumptions. | 要做到这一点,所有这些协议都需要一些假设。 |
| 201 | Because they all learn about this scenario from other places or from that place in the past or from some model. | 因为他们都从其他地方或者过去那个地方或者从某个模型中了解这个情景. |
| 202 | But all of those are going to require some assumptions, and in some cases, stronger or weaker assumptions. | 但所有这些都需要一些假设,在某些情况下还需要更强或更弱的假设. |
| 203 | It's hard to tell what those assumptions are when you read the 15 or 20 pages in the protocol document. | 很难说这些假设是什么 当你读到协议文件中的15或20页。 |
| 204 | But in statistics, when you write it down, then you can really clearly derive what those assumptions are. | 但是在统计学上,当你写下来时, 你就能清楚地得出这些假设是什么。 |
| 205 | And so we derive those assumptions and then we translate those assumptions back into the language of forest carbon credits. | 因此,我们得出这些假设,然后把这些假设转换成森林碳信用额的语言。 |
| 206 | And we say, if you're buying credits from this protocol, this is what you are implicitly believing to be true about the world. | 我们说,如果你从这个协议中购买信用, 这就是你暗中相信的,真实的世界。 |
| 207 | And if you don't believe the assumptions that are necessary for that protocol to recover what someone would have done, | 如果你不相信那些假设 那对协议来说是必需的 以恢复别人会做的事 |
| 208 | then you shouldn't be buying credits from that protocol. | 那你就不应该从协议中 购买信用 |
| 209 | So just to maybe make this a little bit more concrete for you, | 所以也许能让你更具体一点 |
| 210 | how many carbon credits should be assigned to this project? | 应为这一项目分配多少碳入计量? |
| 211 | So here is an area that's actually in part of Brazil, and this is a satellite image. | 因此,这里是一个地区,实际上 在巴西的一部分, 这是一个卫星图像。 |
| 212 | And here we have what this project area looked like before the project existed. | 这里,我们有这个项目领域在项目存在之前的样子。 |
| 213 | And so this dark green is mostly forests, but you can see there is a few agricultural fields here, | 所以这个深绿色的主要是森林, 但你可以看到这里有一些农田, |
| 214 | which are places that were deforested. | 它们是被砍伐的地方。 |
| 215 | This is what it looked like after the project. | 这就是项目结束后的样子。 |
| 216 | So there was some more deforestation down in this area. | 因此这一地区还出现了更多的毁林现象。 |
| 217 | The question is, how many credits should we assign to this project? | 问题是,我们应该给这个项目分配多少信贷? |
| 218 | Or how much deforestation did this project prevent? | 或该项目防止了多少森林砍伐? |
| 219 | To know the answer to this, we have to know, without the project, | 要知道答案 我们必须知道 没有这个项目 |
| 220 | would this landscape have looked like this, which is largely deforested but still some area of forest? | 这种景观会是这样吗? 森林基本上被砍伐了,但仍是森林的一部分? |
| 221 | Or would it have looked like this, which is almost completely deforested? | 或者它看起来像这样 几乎完全被砍伐了? |
| 222 | And so we sort of have to guess at those scenarios. | 所以我们不得不猜测这些情景。 |
| 223 | By the way, it took me a very long time to prompt an AI to make these images turn out the way that I wanted them to. | 顺便说一句,我花了很长的时间 才促使一个AI 来制作这些图像 以我想要的方式。 |
| 224 | It's still not very good at making nice satellite images. | 它仍然不擅长制作良好的卫星图像. |
| 225 | So these different protocols have a few different ways of setting the baseline. | 因此这些不同的协议有几种不同的设定基准的方法. |
| 226 | We're trying to guess what would have happened. | 我们正在猜测会发生什么 |
| 227 | One very common way is what's called a historical average baseline approach. | 一个非常常见的方法就是所谓的历史平均基线方法. |
| 228 | So it says, we'll guess that what you would have done without the project is just what you've done in the past. | 所以说,我们会猜,没有这个项目,你会做什么, 只是你过去所做的。 |
| 229 | So we'll take your past carbon stock or your past rate of deforestation | 所以我们就拿你过去的碳储量 或者你过去的毁林率 |
| 230 | and we'll project that into the future and say, you probably won't change your behavior. | 并说,你可能不会改变你的行为。 |
| 231 | And then we'll compare the behavior that you had with the carbon credit to your past behavior. | 然后我们将你的行为和碳信用 与你过去的行为相比较。 |
| 232 | And sometimes this can work, right? | 有时候这个能行 对吧? |
| 233 | But it requires some assumptions to be true, | 但这需要一些假设是真实的, |
| 234 | including the assumption that your behavior would not have changed for any other reason | 包括假设你的行为不会因任何其他原因改变 |
| 235 | and the assumption that you weren't anticipating joining this project | 假设你没有预料到会加入这个项目 |
| 236 | and lowering your rate of deforestation before entering and then doing more deforestation afterwards. | 并降低森林砍伐的速度 在进入 之后做更多的森林砍伐。 |
| 237 | A second approach that's used by many protocols is modeling. | 许多协议使用的第二种方法是建模. |
| 238 | And here people just build a model that includes things like, | 在这里,人们只是建立一个模型 包括诸如, |
| 239 | what are the prices of the things that cause deforestation? | 造成毁林的东西的价格是什么? |
| 240 | How far was this area from a lumber mill that causes forests to be cut down for wood and other things? | 这片区域离伐木厂有多远? 伐木厂导致森林被砍伐成木材和其他东西。 |
| 241 | And so here we say, what we project you would have done depends on these things that we can observe | 因此,我们在这里说,我们预测 你会做的 取决于这些事情 我们可以观察 |
| 242 | and then we'll compare what you did to that projection. | 然后我们来比较一下你所做的一切 |
| 243 | And people have all sorts of ideas about what a good model for this is. | 人们有各种各样的想法 来看待这个模式 |
| 244 | And then the third approach, which is much newer, | 第三个方法 更新一点 |
| 245 | but people like this approach more right now, is what's called a matching approach. | 但人们现在更喜欢这个方法, 就是所谓的匹配方法。 |
| 246 | Some call this a dynamic baseline approach. | 有人称之为动态基线方法。 |
| 247 | And here we say, we can't know what you would have done beforehand. | 在这里,我们说,我们不能知道 你之前会做什么。 |
| 248 | Instead what we'll do is we'll take your project | 相反,我们要做的是,我们接受你的计划 |
| 249 | and we'll find some areas nearby that were very similar to your project. | 我们会在附近找到一些 和你的项目非常相似的地方 |
| 250 | And then for some crediting period, maybe five years, | 然后,在某个入计期, 也许五年, |
| 251 | we'll compare what you did to these nearby places that did not have a carbon project. | 我们比较一下 你对附近没有碳项目的地方做了什么 |
| 252 | And the difference between your behavior and those nearby places behavior | 你的行为和附近的区别在于行为 |
| 253 | is how many credits we'll assign to you. | 我们会给你多少功劳 |
| 254 | This approach has the problem of not being able to tell people beforehand how many credits you'll earn. | 这种方法有一个问题,就是不能事先告诉人们你会赚到多少信用。 |
| 255 | Because how many credits you earn depends on what your neighbors do. | 因为你能赚到多少钱 取决于你的邻居会做什么 |
| 256 | And so instead of taking you through sort of all the statistical translation part of this paper, | 而不是把论文中 统计翻译的部分都拿给你 |
| 257 | I'll just give you a few of our main takeaways from this exercise. | 我只是给你一些 我们的主要外卖 从这个练习。 |
| 258 | One is that baselines always require some assumptions. | 一是基线总是需要一些假设. |
| 259 | And those assumptions are impossible to verify. | 这些假设是无法核实的。 |
| 260 | Because those assumptions are about the differences between what did happen and what wouldn't happen. | 因为那些假设是关于 发生的事情和不会发生的区别。 |
| 261 | And so as a result, we can never truly know how many carbon credits a project or protocol should produce. | 因此,我们永远无法真正知道一个项目或协议应产生多少碳入计量。 |
| 262 | But assumptions are necessary for this task. | 但是,假设对这项任务是必要的。 |
| 263 | And so at least we should mutually understand and agree upon what those assumptions are. | 因此,我们至少应该相互理解并商定这些假设是什么。 |
| 264 | And that those are okay assumptions to be making. | 这些假设是好的。 |
| 265 | Second is that in this world, people use the word additionality to talk about at least three different things. | 第二,在这个世界上,人们用"附加"这个词来谈论至少三个不同的事物. |
| 266 | One is whether a project would have happened without carbon finance. | 一是没有碳融资项目是否会发生. |
| 267 | One is whether some actions under that project would have happened. | 一是该项目下的一些行动是否会发生。 |
| 268 | And one is whether those carbon credits that were generated, whether that carbon would have been sequestered or not. | 一是那些碳入计量是否已经产生, 碳是否已被固存。 |
| 269 | We think that that is really confusing. | 我们认为这确实令人困惑。 |
| 270 | And so we should just use additionality to talk about the credits. | 所以,我们应该只是利用额外性 来谈论信用。 |
| 271 | That clarifies things. | 这能澄清问题 |
| 272 | The third is that part of what causes a big misunderstanding in this world | 第三个是造成世界大误会的部分 |
| 273 | is that for the people who are producing carbon credits, so for the people who have these forest projects, | 这是给那些生产碳信用额的人的, 对于那些拥有这些森林项目的人, |
| 274 | what really matters to them is that they're able to sell some carbon credits. | 他们真正要紧的是 他们能够出售一些碳信用额。 |
| 275 | And so they need to be able to say, credits from my project are additional. | 因此,他们需要能够说, 我的项目的功劳是额外的。 |
| 276 | But the buyers and the people who are trying to understand the net effect of these projects, | 但买家和试图理解 这些项目的净效果的人, |
| 277 | we really want to understand is that, are the credits from that protocol additional? | 我们真正想要理解的是,该议定书是否补充了这些功劳? |
| 278 | So how good is that whole protocol, that whole methodology? | 那整个程序,整个方法有多好? |
| 279 | And those two different things, was the project generating carbon credits | 这两个不同的东西, 是产生碳信用的项目 |
| 280 | or do all the projects under that protocol generate carbon credits? | 还是根据该议定书的所有项目都会产生碳入计量? |
| 281 | Those require very different kinds of assumptions. | 这些需要非常不同的假设。 |
| 282 | In fact, it's almost impossible to say whether the credits from a single project really correspond to emissions reductions, | 实际上,几乎不可能说一个单一项目的入计量是否与减排量相符, |
| 283 | because it's very hard to find an exact twin for that project or to really know what that project would have done. | 因为很难找到 确切的双胞胎项目 或者真正知道 这个项目会做什么。 |
| 284 | But at the protocol level, where you have many different projects, | 但是在协议层面 你有很多不同的项目 |
| 285 | you can say we're okay with getting it a little bit wrong for many of those projects, | 你可以说我们对很多那些项目 都有点误会, |
| 286 | as long as in some cases we're wrong by underestimating, in some cases we're wrong by overestimating, | 只要在某些情况下我们低估错误, 在某些情况下我们低估错误, |
| 287 | then eventually we'll sort of get to a middle ground. | 然后我们最终会走到中间 |
| 288 | This is where things sort of really get interesting. | 这才是真正有趣的地方。 |
| 289 | And this is that all of these baselines are going to make errors, right? | 这就是所有这些基线都会出错 对吧? |
| 290 | It's so hard to predict what somebody would have done, | 很难预测别人会做什么 |
| 291 | and you always know better what you would have done than some outside observer. | 你总是比外面的观察者更清楚你会做什么 |
| 292 | And so there will be errors. | 所以会出错的 |
| 293 | And if those errors are predictable, so if you can say, if I enroll in this program, | 如果那些错误是可以预测的,那么如果你可以说, 如果我报名参加这个节目, |
| 294 | I'm able to generate more carbon credits than if I enrolled in this other program. | 我能够产生更多的碳信用额 比注册到这个其他项目。 |
| 295 | So if I can predict which program is going to give me more carbon credits, | 如果我能预测哪个程序会给我更多的碳信用额, |
| 296 | that can destroy additionality because projects will always enroll in the protocol | 能够破坏额外性,因为项目总是会注册到协议中 |
| 297 | that gives them the most carbon credits or the one that is wrong in their favor. | 给它们碳的入计量最多 或对他们不利 |
| 298 | And that means that those protocols are unlikely to correspond to real complete emissions reductions. | 这意味着,这些议定书不大可能与真正的完全减排相一致。 |
| 299 | And so one solution to that is that dynamic baseline or matching approach, | 因此,一个解决方案是 动态基线或匹配方法, |
| 300 | where you don't know what your baseline is going to be until the end of the project. | 在项目结束前,你不知道你的基线是什么。 |
| 301 | And that makes it so that I can't sort of game the system. | 这使得我不能 排序游戏系统。 |
| 302 | I can't see what my baseline would have been, say, oh, that's more than I would have done. | 我看不出我的基线是什么, 说,哦,这比我本该做的还要多。 |
| 303 | I'm going to enroll. | 我要报名 |
| 304 | But it also makes it so that I won't know how much money I will generate if I take some actions. | 但它也让我不知道 如果我采取一些行动,我会赚多少钱。 |
| 305 | And that means that it's going to be hard for people to enroll. | 这意味着人们很难注册。 |
| 306 | OK. Let me tell you now about strategic behavior in jurisdictional red plus. | 摆 现在让我来告诉你 关于战略行为 在管辖权红色+。 |
| 307 | So, so far, we've talked mostly about the things that generate carbon credits being projects. | 因此,到目前为止,我们主要谈论 产生碳信用额的东西是项目。 |
| 308 | These are privately owned areas of land, sometimes publicly owned, but usually relatively small. | 这些是私有土地,有时是公有土地,但通常相对较小。 |
| 309 | And there's a new ish type of carbon credit available that come from jurisdictional programs. | 还有一种新型的 碳信用来源于管辖权程序。 |
| 310 | And so by jurisdictional, I mean sometimes a national government and sometimes a provincial government. | 因此,从管辖权上讲,我指的是有时是国家政府,有时是省政府。 |
| 311 | So much larger scale. | 规模要大得多 |
| 312 | And this type of carbon credit program is motivated by three main issues. | 而这类碳信用计划是由三个主要问题推动的. |
| 313 | The first one is that people argue at the project scale, | 第一个是人们在项目规模上争论 |
| 314 | we can't be sure that forests that are protected by a private company are going to stay protected very long in the future | 我们无法确定 被私人公司保护的森林 将来会长期受到保护 |
| 315 | because if that company is sold, if they go bankrupt, maybe they'll just allow that forest to be cut down shortly afterwards. | 因为如果那家公司被卖掉, 如果他们破产了, 也许他们只是 允许森林被砍伐 不久后。 |
| 316 | And perhaps governments with their policies can provide a more stable protection for forests. | 或许政府通过政策可以为森林提供更稳定的保护。 |
| 317 | The second and maybe best argument is leakage. | 第二个也是也许最好的论据是渗漏。 |
| 318 | And so leakage, remember, is when if I pay you not to cut down your forest, but there's still demand for wood, | 所以泄漏,记住, 如果我付你钱 不砍掉你的森林, 但还有需求 木材, |
| 319 | maybe your neighbors are going to cut down their forests instead. | 也许你的邻居会砍掉他们的森林 |
| 320 | And so by paying you to not cut down your forest, all I've done is displaced deforestation. | 所以通过付钱让你不砍掉森林 我所做的就是让森林消失 |
| 321 | The proponents of jurisdictional red say that most leakage or most of that spillover happens with your immediate neighbors. | 司法红的支持者说 大部分泄漏或外溢 发生在你的近邻身上 |
| 322 | And if the whole jurisdiction is reducing its rate of deforestation, so I pay everyone in this room, | 如果整个辖区都在降低森林砍伐率 我给这房间里的每一个人钱 |
| 323 | then you can't just have more deforestation in your neighbor. | 那样你就不能在你的邻居身上多砍伐森林了 |
| 324 | That deforestation has to be displaced much, much farther away, often across the border. | 这种砍伐森林的现象必须迁移到很远、更远的地方,往往跨越边界。 |
| 325 | And that makes it harder for the firms that are causing deforestation because they have to change their whole supply chain. | 这使得造成森林砍伐的公司更加困难,因为它们必须改变整个供应链。 |
| 326 | Maybe they have to deal with different laws and regulations, different issues. | 也许他们必须处理不同的法律法规,不同的问题. |
| 327 | And so making deforestation cross borders has the potential to reduce leakage. | 因此,使森林砍伐跨越边界,有可能减少渗漏。 |
| 328 | And third is double county. | 第三是双县. |
| 329 | It's easier, basically, to get governments to keep track of these things than private companies. | 基本上,比起私人公司,让政府跟踪这些事情是容易的。 |
| 330 | But our area of focus in this paper, which just came out last week, by the way, | 顺便说一句,我们上周刚发表的论文的焦点领域 |
| 331 | is how good are the baselines that are used in jurisdictional red? | 在管辖权红色中使用的基线有多好? |
| 332 | And so let me tell you about, well, a little bit more about how these jurisdictional red credits are increasingly popular, | 所以,让我告诉你,嗯,多一点 关于这些管辖权红色信用是如何越来越流行, |
| 333 | sort of what the financial landscape looks like. | 有点像金融环境 |
| 334 | They have over $4 billion in commitments so far, including $1.5 billion from the LEAF Coalition, | 迄今,它们有超过40亿美元的承诺,包括来自LEAF联盟的15亿美元。 |
| 335 | which includes companies like Microsoft, Tencent, Amazon, so the huge companies. | 包括微软、Tencent、亚马逊等大型公司。 |
| 336 | Firms have committed $750 million from Guyana, | 圭亚那公司承诺提供7.5亿美元, |
| 337 | $93 million from Ghana, and $2 billion from token funds. | 9 300万美元来自加纳,20亿美元来自象征性资金。 |
| 338 | And so there are massive, massive financial commitments to this type, this new type of credit, | 因此,对于这种类型的, 这种新型的信贷, 有大量的,巨大的财政承诺, |
| 339 | especially after you saw the big reduction in sales in the voluntary carbon market. | 尤其是在你看到自愿碳市场销售量大幅下降之后 |
| 340 | So people have decided maybe this is a safer way to get food. | 所以人们已经决定 也许这是一个更安全的方法 来获取食物。 |
| 341 | But so far, there's not very much work on how credible or additional these carbon credits are. | 但到目前为止,对于这些碳信用额度的可信度或额外性,还没有太多的工作. |
| 342 | And so in this project, we test the baselines that are used by these jurisdictional projects. | 因此在这个计划中,我们测试这些管辖项目所使用的基线。 |
| 343 | And these baselines, I'll show you this in just a minute, | 这些基线,我马上给你看 |
| 344 | but the way that these baselines work is they say the five years prior to the start of a jurisdictional program | 但是,这些基线的运作方式是说,在管辖权方案开始之前的五年。 |
| 345 | will take the average deforestation in those five years. | 在这五年里,平均需要砍伐森林。 |
| 346 | And then for the five years that you're enrolled in the program, | 然后,你注册的五年, |
| 347 | we'll compare your deforestation to the previous five-year average. | 我们比较一下你的森林砍伐 与之前的五年平均。 |
| 348 | So all you have to do to get carbon credits is reduce your rate of deforestation compared to what it was before. | 所以要想获得碳信用额 你只需要比以前降低毁林率 |
| 349 | It's a really transparent way to do things. | 这是一个非常透明的方式 做事情。 |
| 350 | So we're going to check to see how well this works and whether it's possible to take advantage of this system. | 所以我们要检查一下这个系统的运作情况 以及能否利用这个系统。 |
| 351 | Maybe some of you are thinking, I know how I would take advantage of this system. | 也许你们有些人在想,我知道我会如何利用这个系统。 |
| 352 | So for every jurisdiction and year that some jurisdiction is not enrolled in the program, | 因此,每个管辖区和年度 某些管辖区没有注册在该方案, |
| 353 | these are all the places that are not in the program, we're going to calculate their baseline. | 这些都是所有的地方 没有在程序, 我们要计算他们的基线。 |
| 354 | And remember, a baseline is what someone would have done if they weren't in the program. | 记住,一个基线是 一个人会做的,如果他们不在程序。 |
| 355 | So if we do this, we can verify how well these baselines work. | 因此,如果我们这样做,我们就可以核实这些基线的运作情况。 |
| 356 | We're trying to estimate what they would do without carbon credits for all the places that didn't generate any carbon credits. | 我们试图估计,如果没有碳信用额, 他们将做什么 在所有没有产生碳信用额的地方。 |
| 357 | And so we're estimating something that we directly observe, and we can see how good our estimate was. | 所以我们在估计我们直接观测到的东西, 我们可以看到我们的估计有多好。 |
| 358 | We're going to compare that baseline to the behavior of these actual jurisdictions | 我们要把这些基线 与实际辖区的行为相比较 |
| 359 | and see how often does this baseline overestimate deforestation, how often does it underestimate deforestation, when does it get it right. | 并看这一基线在多大程度上经常高估毁林,如何经常低估毁林,何时才对。 |
| 360 | And this is going to tell us how well baselines work for these eligible but unenrolled jurisdictions. | 这将告诉我们,这些符合资格但未经注册的管辖区的基线如何有效。 |
| 361 | And that we can then use to infer how well these baselines are probably working for the jurisdictions that are enrolled. | 然后,我们可以用来推断这些基线对已注册的法域可能有多有效。 |
| 362 | So let me sort of give you a clear picture of what these baselines look like. | 所以,让我给你一个清晰的图片 这些基线是什么样子。 |
| 363 | Here we have Piauí in Brazil. | 我们在巴西有皮奥伊 |
| 364 | This is the annual rate of deforestation. | 这是每年的毁林率。 |
| 365 | So more deforestation, this is in hectares. | 更多的森林被砍伐, 这是公顷。 |
| 366 | And then down here we have the year. | 然后在这里,我们有一年。 |
| 367 | And so Piauí has not ever enrolled in jurisdictional red. | 因此皮奥伊从未注册过"管辖权红色". |
| 368 | So this is their rate of deforestation. | 这就是他们砍伐森林的速度。 |
| 369 | And let's say, let's imagine that they enrolled in the year 2012. | 假设他们是在2012年注册的 |
| 370 | If they did that, their baseline is going to be their average rate of deforestation in the five prior years. | 如果他们这样做,其基线将是前五年的平均毁林率。 |
| 371 | And we compare that to their actual rate of deforestation over the next five years. | 我们比较了它们在未来五年的实际毁林率。 |
| 372 | And so here, Piauí, their deforestation was higher than their baseline. | 所以在这里,皮奥伊, 他们的森林砍伐高于基线。 |
| 373 | So they would not have generated any credits to be able to sell. | 这样他们就不会产生任何可以出售的信贷。 |
| 374 | You think this is a fair comparison, right? | 你觉得这是个公平的比较 对吧? |
| 375 | Does this baseline capture what they actually did without any carbon credits? | 这个基线是否记录了他们没有碳入计量的实际行动? |
| 376 | It's wrong here, right? | 这是错的,对不对? |
| 377 | The baseline is underestimated. | 基线被低估。 |
| 378 | And you might think, actually, you know, it would be a better baseline. | 你可能会认为,实际上, 你知道,这将是一个更好的基线。 |
| 379 | As if instead of taking the average, you sort of made the best fit line through here. | 仿佛不是取平均值, 你做了最好的线 通过这里。 |
| 380 | And so this is a little different assumption. | 所以这个假设有点不同。 |
| 381 | This is saying that these trends in deforestation are persistent. | 这表明这些毁林趋势是持续的。 |
| 382 | Those trends are likely to compete. | 这些趋势有可能相互竞争。 |
| 383 | So let me show you a couple of places. | 让我告诉你几个地方。 |
| 384 | One is Piauí and one is Boquerón. | 一个是皮奥伊,一个是博克龙。 |
| 385 | And here, for Boquerón, their rate of deforestation was decreasing. | 在这里,对博克龙来说,他们的毁林率正在下降。 |
| 386 | So their baseline was above what their actual deforestation was. | 因此,他们的基线高于他们的实际毁林情况。 |
| 387 | Now, Boquerón did not enroll in jurisdictional red. | 现在,博克龙没有注册 管辖权红色。 |
| 388 | But if they had enrolled in this year and done exactly nothing, | 但如果他们今年注册了 却什么都没做 |
| 389 | they would have generated some carbon credits because their deforestation was lower than their baseline. | 它们本来可以产生一些碳入计量,因为它们的毁林低于基线。 |
| 390 | Well, let's go back and look at Piauí again, right? | 我们回去再看看皮奥依吧 |
| 391 | This is, imagine they enrolled but did nothing. | 这是,想象他们注册 但什么也没做。 |
| 392 | They actually would have had to work hard before they got to a level where they could have generated any carbon credits. | 实际上,在达到能够产生碳信用额的水平之前,它们必须努力工作。 |
| 393 | So if you're in charge of Boquerón, does it make sense for you to enroll? | 那么,如果你负责博克龙, 你是否应该注册? |
| 394 | Yeah, you can get some credits for doing nothing, right? | 是啊,你可以得到一些功劳 因为无所事事,对不对? |
| 395 | So your government will get paid. | 所以,你的政府会得到报酬。 |
| 396 | You can use that money maybe to do more public services. | 你可以用这笔钱 做更多的公共服务。 |
| 397 | That sounds great. | 听起来不错 |
| 398 | The problem is that those credits don't correspond to any changes that you made because of the program. | 问题在于这些学分与你因程序而做出的任何改变并不对应. |
| 399 | So if someone buys those credits and uses them to offset missions, it's bad for the atmosphere, bad for climate change. | 因此,如果有人购买这些信用并用它们来抵消任务,那对大气有害,对气候变化有害. |
| 400 | If you're in charge of Piauí, are you going to enroll? | 如果你负责皮奥伊,你会报名吗? |
| 401 | Probably not, right? | 也许不是,对不对? |
| 402 | You have to do a lot of work before you even get to a point where you can generate any carbon credits. | 在你到达可以产生碳信用值的地步之前, 你必须做很多工作。 |
| 403 | And this is bad because which place needs to enroll? | 因为哪一个地方需要注册? |
| 404 | Which place would we like to enroll? | 我们想在哪注册? |
| 405 | It's the place where deforestation is going up, right? | 这是森林砍伐的地方,对不对? |
| 406 | This is the place where we really want to direct conservation finance. | 这正是我们真正想要 引导保护资金的地方。 |
| 407 | And so this is sort of an unintended consequence of the way that baselines are constructed in these programs. | 因此,这是在这些方案中构建基线的方式的意外后果。 |
| 408 | You might think instead, maybe it's not the trend, right? | 你可能认为,也许这不是趋势,对不对? |
| 409 | Maybe it's not things are trending upward or trending downward. | 也许事情不是呈上升趋势 也不是呈下降趋势 |
| 410 | But instead, the level is persistent. | 但与此相反,这一水平是持续的。 |
| 411 | But instead, we'll just use the last year in the baseline as the new baseline. | 但是,我们只是把基准中的最后一年作为新的基准。 |
| 412 | So the trend sometimes predicts whether you can generate fake carbon credits. | 因此趋势有时会预测你是否能产生假碳信用值. |
| 413 | But the last year of deforestation before the start of the credit period is often a better predictor of deforestation than this five-year average. | 但是,在信贷期开始之前的最后一年砍伐森林往往比这五年的平均数更能预测毁林情况。 |
| 414 | And so you have this for Salta and for Belarus. | 萨尔塔和白俄罗斯都有这个 |
| 415 | Once again, we can see if you're in Salta and you know my last year was much lower than my baseline, I should probably enroll. | 再说一次,我们可以看到你是否在萨尔塔, 你知道我的最后一年比我的基线低得多, 我也许应该注册。 |
| 416 | I'll get some carbon credits for doing nothing. | 我会得到一些碳信用额 因为什么都不做。 |
| 417 | But if you're in Belarus in the years 2017, you're probably not going to enroll because you know you have a lot of work to do before you can get to even zero credits. | 但是,如果你在2017年的白俄罗斯,你可能不会注册,因为你知道你有很多工作要做,才能得到甚至零信用. |
| 418 | And so this gives us two possible, very simple decision rules that you can use to game this system. | 因此,这给我们提供了两种可能,非常简单的决定规则, 你可以用来游戏这个系统。 |
| 419 | One is you could base your enrollment decision on your trend. | 首先,你可以根据你的趋势来决定入学 |
| 420 | So if your rate of deforestation is decreasing, enroll, you might get some extra credits. | 因此,如果你的毁林率下降, 注册,你可能会得到一些额外的信用。 |
| 421 | Or you can base your enrollment decision based on your most recent year. | 或者你可以依据你最近一年的入学决定 |
| 422 | You can say, if my most recent year had lower deforestation than my average, maybe I'll enroll. | 可以说,如果我最近一年的森林砍伐率 低于平均水平, 也许我会注册。 |
| 423 | But if it had higher than my average, I want to do that. | 但是,如果它有 比我的平均,我想这样做。 |
| 424 | I will note that this protocol, jurisdictional red protocol, there are two of them, that they both have safeguards that are designed to make it so that if you do enroll in these programs, you can't just sit back and do nothing. | 我要指出的是, 这份协议, 管辖权红色协议, 有两个协议, 他们都拥有保障 设计它,这样,如果你真的注册了这些计划, 你就不能袖手旁观,什么都不做。 |
| 425 | You actually have to make some policy changes. | 实际上你必须做一些政策改变。 |
| 426 | But when I've gone and tried to read all the policy changes that these jurisdictions are making, it's really hard to tell which of those changes are because they enrolled and which of them are things that they already had going on. | 但当我去尝试读读这些管辖区正在做出的所有政策变化时, 很难知道这些变化中哪些是因为他们注册的,哪些是他们已经做过的事情。 |
| 427 | And most worrying to me is whether this is deterring the places that need carbon finance the most from enrollment. | 我最担心的是 这是否阻止了那些最需要碳融资的地方 从入学。 |
| 428 | So this safeguards thing works for preventing people from cheating the system. | 因此,这个保障措施可以防止人们欺骗系统。 |
| 429 | But even if these worked, this wouldn't solve the problem of the places where deforestation is increasing, the places most at risk, not being able to enroll and get credit for changes that they make. | 但是,即使这些都奏效了,这并不能解决森林砍伐日益加剧的地方的问题,这些地方的风险最大,无法入学,也无法因它们所做的改变而获得信贷。 |
| 430 | So when we do tests and see whether it would be possible for jurisdictions to strategically enroll and get credits for doing nothing, | 因此,当我们做测试, 看看是否有可能 法域战略性注册 和获得学分 无所作为, |
| 431 | what we find is that many jurisdictions could make millions of dollars by doing nothing if they just use these decision rules. | 我们发现,许多司法管辖区只要使用这些裁决规则,就能够无所事事地赚数百万美元。 |
| 432 | However, we have about 20 jurisdictions that have enrolled in jurisdictional red plus. | 然而,我们有大约20个辖区已经注册了管辖权红色加。 |
| 433 | So we can test, did they enroll because their trend was going down or because they had this last year difference? | 所以我们可以测试,他们注册是因为 他们的趋势正在下降,还是因为他们有去年的差别? |
| 434 | And we can compare, like, does this cause some jurisdictions to enroll and others to not enroll? | 我们可以比较一下,比如,这是否使一些管辖区注册,而另一些管辖区不注册? |
| 435 | Or does this make it so that if you're just looking at one jurisdiction, did they enroll in the year where their trend is most pointed downward or where they have the biggest drop? | 或者说,如果只看一个管辖区, 他们是否在他们的趋势最下降的年份注册, 或者说他们下降最多的地方? |
| 436 | We don't find any evidence that jurisdictions are enrolling based on these heuristics and very little to no evidence that they're choosing the start date of enrollment based on these decision rules. | 我们没有找到任何证据表明 司法管辖区正在根据这些高压因素注册 几乎没有证据表明 他们正在根据这些决定规则选择开始注册的日期 |
| 437 | So even though there is potential for this to happen, it doesn't seem like it's happening, at least so far. | 因此,即使有发生这种情况的潜力,它似乎并没有发生,至少到目前为止. |
| 438 | I have a lot of theories about why this is the case, and this is why I'm now going and reading all these policies that jurisdictions are trying to pass. | 我有很多关于为什么是这种情况的理论, 这就是为什么我现在去阅读所有这些政策, 司法管辖区试图通过。 |
| 439 | However, in this work, we find a different sort of concerning other response to enrollment in jurisdictional red, and that is anticipatory behavior. | 然而,在这项工作中,我们发现另一种情况是,对以红色司法管辖区招生的其他反应,这就是预言行为。 |
| 440 | So in other environmental policy areas, we find that when there is a new regulation on fishing, it's going to come into effect. | 因此,在其他环境政策领域,我们发现,当有新的渔业条例时,它就会生效. |
| 441 | Often, just before that regulation happens, people who will be affected by the regulation really increase their rates of fishing just before the regulation starts. | 在条例生效前,受条例影响的人往往会在条例生效前增加捕鱼率。 |
| 442 | And so we think that depending on a jurisdiction's anti-deforestation plan, depending on how they plan to reduce deforestation, this is what we might see. | 所以我们认为,取决于一个辖区的森林砍伐计划, 取决于它们如何减少森林砍伐, 这就是我们可能看到的。 |
| 443 | So here we have this jurisdiction. | 所以这里我们有这个管辖权。 |
| 444 | This is the reference period those five years before the enrollment. | 这是入学前五年的参照期。 |
| 445 | And what we see in many cases is actually that just before the enrollment, we'll see a large increase in deforestation. | 在很多情况下,我们看到的是, 在入学前, 森林砍伐会大大增加。 |
| 446 | And this means that likely what's happening in these jurisdictions is some landowners are noticing that they're going to face stricter deforestation regulations. | 这就意味着,在这些辖区所发生的事情 可能是一些地主注意到 他们将会面临更严格的森林砍伐条例。 |
| 447 | And so as a result, they say, OK, if we want to clear land, we have to clear it now. | 因此,他们说,如果我们想清理土地, 我们现在就必须清理土地。 |
| 448 | And so that means more deforestation in the reference period, and that means that your baseline gets a little bit higher. | 因此这意味着在基准期内更多的森林砍伐, 这意味着你的基线会提高一点。 |
| 449 | And so you get credited for more. | 所以,你得到的功劳更多。 |
| 450 | So more false credits. | 如此多虚假的信用. |
| 451 | And then the deforestation that would have happened later gets pulled earlier. | 而后来发生的森林砍伐 则更早被拉开 |
| 452 | And that's also bad, right? | 这也不好,对不对? |
| 453 | If we can, we'd like to reduce our emissions until much farther in the future. | 如果可以的话,我们想在未来更远的时间内减少排放. |
| 454 | We don't think that this is actually the government's trying to take advantage of this. | 我们并不认为这实际上是政府试图利用这一点. |
| 455 | We think this is mostly private actors. | 我们认为这主要是私人行为者。 |
| 456 | And we see this in many places. | 我们在许多地方都看到了这一点。 |
| 457 | So these are all the jurisdictions where we see an increase in deforestation just prior to the start of enrollment. | 因此,这些都是在入学前的森林砍伐增加的管辖区。 |
| 458 | But we don't see it everywhere. | 但我们没有到处看到它。 |
| 459 | In some places, we actually see reduced deforestation prior to enrollment. | 在一些地方,我们实际上看到在入学前的毁林减少。 |
| 460 | And so the other reason that we're trying to figure out the policies of all of these jurisdictions is we think that in places where their plan for reducing deforestation | 所以我们试图找出所有这些辖区政策的另一个原因是 我们觉得在他们减少森林砍伐计划的地方 |
| 461 | include fines and regulations, that people will do their deforestation a little bit earlier. | 包括罚款和管制,人们会早点砍伐森林。 |
| 462 | But in other places where their main plan for reducing deforestation is to pay people who are conserving their forest. | 但在其他地方,他们减少砍伐森林的主要计划是向正在养护森林的人支付报酬。 |
| 463 | In those places, it doesn't make sense for me to cut down my forest before it starts because then I won't have any forest to be paid to preserve. | 在那些地方,在森林开始前砍掉我的森林是没有道理的,因为那样的话我就不会有任何森林需要付费来保存. |
| 464 | So in those places, we might actually see a reduction in deforestation during the reference period. | 因此,在这些地方,我们可能会看到在参考期内森林砍伐减少。 |
| 465 | So a couple of takeaways from this study is that there are truly, I think, many benefits to jurisdictional purchase. | 因此,从这个研究中取走的几个东西是, 我认为,在管辖权购买方面确实有很多好处。 |
| 466 | But setting good baselines for jurisdictions is really hard, maybe harder than the private sector. | 但是,为管辖机构确定良好的基线确实比私营部门困难,也许比私营部门困难。 |
| 467 | And they present new challenges like private actors anticipating policies and changing their behavior in a way that damages the credibility of the credits. | 它们带来了新的挑战,比如私人行为者预测政策和改变他们的行为的方式会损害信用的信誉。 |
| 468 | On the other hand, we note that governments seem to not be taking advantage of some pretty obvious ways that they could game the system and generate credits by doing nothing. | 另一方面,我们注意到,政府似乎没有利用某些非常明显的方式,它们可以玩弄系统,通过无所作为来产生信用。 |
| 469 | And the reason for that is that governments have to act differently than the private companies that manage most carbon projects. | 其原因是,政府的行动必须不同于管理大多数碳项目的私营公司。 |
| 470 | If you're a private company managing a carbon project, you can choose things like, when is it best for me to enroll? | 如果你是一个私人公司 管理一个碳项目, 你可以选择的东西, 比如,什么时候我最好注册? |
| 471 | Should I enroll this area or this area? | 我应该注册这个区域还是这个区域? |
| 472 | But if you're a policymaker in a government, the most binding constraints on your actions are things like, do I have an election coming up? | 但如果你是一个政府的决策者, 你的行动最有约束力的限制是, 事情是这样的, 我有一个选举即将来临? |
| 473 | How is this going to change my support? | 这怎么改变我的支持? |
| 474 | How does this interact with other existing regulations? | 如何与其他现行条例互动? |
| 475 | And so governments are much more constrained in how they're able to take advantage of these things. | 因此,各国政府在如何利用这些东西方面受到更多的制约。 |
| 476 | And we think that makes it so that even though there are these ways where they could try to cheat the system, they're not doing so. | 我们认为这样一来,即使有这些方法 他们可以试图欺骗系统,但他们并没有这样做。 |
| 477 | So this paper is called Valuing the Impact of Forest-Based Carbon Offset Projects Using Machine Learning. | 因此,这篇论文被称为"利用机器学习来评价森林碳抵消项目的影响". |
| 478 | And here we're examining a different type of carbon market. | 在这里,我们正在检查一种不同的碳市场。 |
| 479 | So far we've mostly been talking about the voluntary carbon market, where firms have made net zero commitments and they're trying to meet those commitments. | 到目前为止,我们主要谈论的是自愿碳市场, 在那里,公司作出了净零承诺, 他们正在努力履行这些承诺。 |
| 480 | But there aren't any rules that say you have to be net zero or you have to offset your emissions. | 但没有任何规则说,你必须是净零或者你必须抵消你的排放。 |
| 481 | This paper instead focuses on compliance markets, which are places where governments have said, this firm is only allowed to emit this much carbon. | 本文则侧重于合规市场,政府说,这些市场只允许该公司排放大量碳。 |
| 482 | And if they emit more than that, they have to either pay a fine or they have to buy some carbon credits, pay someone else to reduce their emissions. | 如果他们放出更多, 他们必须缴纳罚款或者购买碳信用额, 支付别人来减少排放。 |
| 483 | This is often called a cap and trade program, where a government will cap their total emissions and then allow companies to trade emissions reductions under that cap. | 这通常被称为上限和贸易方案,政府将限制其总排放量,然后允许公司在该上限下进行减排交易。 |
| 484 | So that way they're able to reduce total emissions, but companies still have some flexibility about what strategies they want to take. | 因此,他们可以这样减少总排放量,但是公司对于他们想要采取什么战略仍然有一定的灵活性. |
| 485 | And so these compliance markets include China's emissions trading scheme, which is actually undergoing some really interesting changes now and recently. | 因此,这些合规市场包括了中国的排放量交易计划, 它现在和最近都经历了一些非常有趣的变化。 |
| 486 | The European Union has an emissions trading scheme that's been going on for some time. | 欧盟有一个排放交易计划 已经持续了一段时间。 |
| 487 | And we'll focus on the California cap and trade market. | 我们将专注于加州的封顶和贸易市场。 |
| 488 | I think China's ETS is actually the largest compliance market in the world right now. | 我认为中国的ETS实际上是目前世界上最大的达标市场. |
| 489 | And I've mostly been focusing on forest-based carbon credits. | 我主要关注森林碳信用。 |
| 490 | And I think that China's emissions trading scheme mostly does not allow carbon offsets from forest carbon credits, except for a very small proportion. | 我认为,中国的排放量交易计划大多不允许从森林碳信用额中抵消碳,除了极小比例外. |
| 491 | I think right now five percent of a firm's emissions can be offset from these nature-based projects. | 我认为现在公司5%的排放量 可以从这些自然项目中抵消。 |
| 492 | And I'm still learning about the Chinese market. | 我还在学习中国市场 |
| 493 | But firms that exceed their emissions allowances have to offset their emissions. | 但超过排放允许量的企业必须抵消其排放量。 |
| 494 | So in California, we're on period five of this emissions trading scheme. | 因此在加利福尼亚,我们是在第五期 排放交易计划。 |
| 495 | But here I'm showing the sources of carbon credits. | 但我在这里展示碳信用额的来源。 |
| 496 | So first, there were not very many, but most of the carbon credits in green here come from forestry-based projects in the U.S. | 所以,首先,没有很多, 但这里大部分的绿色碳信用额 来自于美国的林业项目。 |
| 497 | So these are places where people are conserving their forest or they're managing their forest to reduce emissions and increase carbon situation. | 因此,这些是人们正在保护森林或管理森林 以减少排放和增加碳状况的地方。 |
| 498 | Actually, most of those come from a project type called improved forest management. | 实际上,其中大多数来自一种称为改进森林管理的项目。 |
| 499 | These are places where the forest is being managed. | 这些地方正在管理森林。 |
| 500 | It's not being preserved, which means that some of the forest is being cut down, replanted, cut down, replanted. | 其未保存,表示部分林木被砍伐,复植,复植. |
| 501 | A few of the credits come from avoided conversion, which is preventing a forest from being cut down overall. | 其中一些信贷来自避免的转换,这妨碍了森林的全面砍伐。 |
| 502 | But most of the credits come from this improved forest management, where people who are harvesting wood, cutting down forests, are doing so in a way that is emitting less carbon than they would have done. | 但大部分的信用来源于这种改善的森林管理,在这种森林管理中,伐木、砍伐森林的人这样做的方式要比他们本来会做的少。 |
| 503 | So often this takes the form of instead of taking a forest and clear cutting it, cutting all the trees down, it means that you do some selective clearing. | 通常,它采取的形式是 而不是采取一个森林 和清除它, 砍掉所有的树木, 这意味着你做一些选择性的清理。 |
| 504 | So you cut down some trees here, some over there, but you leave some trees standing to encourage faster forest regrowth. | 所以,你砍伐一些树木 在这里,有一些在那里, 但你留下一些树木 站立以鼓励更快的森林再生长。 |
| 505 | Maybe you wait a little bit longer before you harvest the trees so they can get bigger, sequester more carbon. | 或许你再等一会儿,再收割这些树, 这样它们就能得到更大的,更多的碳。 |
| 506 | Now, in this California market, there are really two sources of carbon credits. | 现在,在这个加州市场, 碳信用额有两个来源。 |
| 507 | I'm showing you the share of the total credits that are issued here on the y-axis. | 我给你看Y轴上 发行的信贷总额中的份额 |
| 508 | On the x-axis, you have the year since the start of the project. | 在x轴上,您有项目开始后的年份. |
| 509 | So here, most of the credits, about 70% of those credits, come from the first two years of the project. | 因此,在这里,大部分的信贷, 大约70%的这些信贷, 来自于项目的头两年。 |
| 510 | So you might wonder, how can you possibly manage your forest to reduce emissions in the first two years? | 所以,你可能会想,你怎么能管理你的森林 在头两年减少排放? |
| 511 | There's like not that much that you can do that quickly. | 没有什么比你能做的更快。 |
| 512 | And so it turns out that actually all of these credits in the first two years are because of the way that the protocol is written, | 结果发现前两年的这些学分 都是因为协议的写法 |
| 513 | so that you can be credited for the difference between your project and the regional average of biomass. | 以便您在项目和地区生物量平均值之间的差额中获得贷记。 |
| 514 | So if you put a project in a place where the trees are just bigger and older, you can claim credit for that difference. | 所以,如果你把一个项目 在一个地方, 树木大和老, 你可以要求信用 对于这种差异。 |
| 515 | And so we've been talking about issues with baselines, right? | 所以,我们一直在谈论 与基线的问题,对不对? |
| 516 | This is perhaps an obvious one to you now that people will go and buy that land and start harvesting carbon credits from that place, | 这对你来说或许是件很明显的事 现在人们会去买那块土地 开始从那里获取碳信用 |
| 517 | even if they were never planning on cutting it down, never planning to manage it. | 即使他们从来没有计划削减它, 从来没有计划管理它。 |
| 518 | These credits, we think, are not very good. | 我们认为这些功劳并不很好。 |
| 519 | We can zoom in. | 我们可以放大。 |
| 520 | So here I'm showing you, on this side is the above-ground biomass density from these projects. | 在这里,我向你们展示, 这边是这些项目的地面生物量密度。 |
| 521 | This is like how much carbon is in each hectare of forest. | 这就像每公顷森林的碳含量。 |
| 522 | And here we have years before the start of a project and then after the project begins. | 在这里,我们有一个项目开始之前,然后项目开始之后。 |
| 523 | And in green, we have the project areas. | 绿色的,我们有项目区域。 |
| 524 | And in red, we have places that were just outside of the project areas. | 红色的,我们有些地方 就在项目区之外。 |
| 525 | So the nearby places, they're likely pretty similar. | 所以附近的地方, 它们可能相当相似。 |
| 526 | And then blue is the carbon credits that are generated by those projects. | 然后蓝色是这些项目产生的碳信用额。 |
| 527 | So the difference between the project area and the nearby areas is about that much. | 因此,工程区和附近地区之间的差别就很大了. |
| 528 | But they're claiming that many credits from initial differences. | 但他们声称许多来自最初差异的学分. |
| 529 | That seems not so good. | 这似乎不是很好。 |
| 530 | And then if you look at these trends in the project area and outside the project area, | 如果你看看项目区和项目区外的这些趋势, |
| 531 | you can see actually that they are diverging a little bit. | 你可以看到他们有些分歧 |
| 532 | And if you look over here, you can see the divergence a little bit more. | 如果你看这里, 你可以看到一些差异。 |
| 533 | That means those projects, they are doing something. | 这意味着那些项目,他们正在做一些事情。 |
| 534 | But this is how many credits they're claiming in those years. | 但是,这就是他们声称的这些年的功劳。 |
| 535 | So are those projects doing as much as the credits they're claiming? | 那么,这些项目做 与他们声称的信用一样多? |
| 536 | Maybe not. | 也许不是。 |
| 537 | Is this a fair comparison? | 这是比较公平吗? |
| 538 | Is this a good way to assign baselines? | 这是指定基线的好办法吗? |
| 539 | Well, maybe. | 也许吧 |
| 540 | But actually probably not. | 但实际上可能不是。 |
| 541 | Because those projects are put in those places for particular reasons. | 因为这些项目被放在这些地方有特殊的原因。 |
| 542 | And so comparing them just to their neighbors, maybe not a very good comparison. | 把它们和邻居比起来,也许不是很好比。 |
| 543 | And so here's where we'll try to do something that is a lot better, but also a lot more complicated. | 在这里,我们将尝试做一些更好的事情, 但也有更多的复杂。 |
| 544 | So here I have a project on the east coast of the U.S. | 我在美国东海岸有个项目 |
| 545 | The project is in the green area. | 工程位于绿地. |
| 546 | The neighbors are in this white band around it. | 邻居们就在这个白色的乐队里 |
| 547 | And for every little piece of land here, we're going to use remote sensing, satellite imagery, | 对于每一个小块土地, 我们将使用遥感,卫星图像, |
| 548 | to look at what the land use was in that spot. | 看看那个地方的土地使用情况 |
| 549 | So is it forest, water, wetland, maybe it was developed, grassland? | 是森林、水、湿地 也许是被开发的草原吗? |
| 550 | And so inside the project is pretty much all forest. | 所以项目内部几乎全是森林。 |
| 551 | But outside the project we have these developed areas, we have some barren land, | 但是除了这个项目之外,我们有这些发达的地区, 我们有一些贫瘠的土地, |
| 552 | and so it doesn't make sense for us to compare inside the project to all of these outside areas. | 因此,我们没有理由 在项目内部 与所有这些外部区域进行比较。 |
| 553 | In fact, what we should be doing is finding the areas that are nearby that are very similar to the areas inside the project. | 事实上,我们应该做的是找到附近与项目内区域非常相似的地区。 |
| 554 | And so we'll do that with a machine learning method. | 所以我们要用机器学习的方法来做到这一点。 |
| 555 | We'll take all the satellite images, we're going to process those with some machine learning tools, | 我们把所有的卫星影像都拿走, 我们用一些机器学习工具处理这些影像, |
| 556 | and we're going to find the places that are most similar. | 我们会找到最相似的地方 |
| 557 | And that's going to give us this map down here, | 这将会给我们这张地图 |
| 558 | which is a map of the similarity to each place, to all the other areas inside. | 它是一个地图 与每个地方, 与所有其它区域相似。 |
| 559 | And then we'll use those as comparisons. | 然后我们用这些做比较。 |
| 560 | But we won't just compare those to the outside areas. | 但我们不会只是比较这些 与外部区域。 |
| 561 | We'll also use our satellite images and machine learning to try to predict | 我们还会利用我们的卫星图像和机器学习来尝试预测 |
| 562 | how much deforestation is going to happen there 10 years in the future. | 未来十年将发生多少森林砍伐。 |
| 563 | And so we sort of have two ways of capturing the effect of the project. | 所以我们有两种方法捕捉项目的效果。 |
| 564 | One is, how much deforestation do we think is going to happen, and then did it happen. | 第一,我们认为将发生多少森林砍伐,然后发生。 |
| 565 | one is how much deforestation do we think is going to happen, and then did it happen. | 一是我们认为会发生多少森林砍伐,然后发生。 |
| 566 | And if there's less deforestation than we predicted, maybe it reduced deforestation. | 如果有比我们预测的少的森林砍伐, 也许它减少了森林砍伐。 |
| 567 | And then we'll also try to do that comparison only on the very similar places. | 然后,我们也会尝试在非常相似的地方进行比较。 |
| 568 | So that sort of double approach is going to make it so that we think that the baselines | 所以,这种双管齐下的方法 将使它让我们认为基线 |
| 569 | that we get from this machine learning approach are going to be very credible. | 我们从这个机器学习方法得到的 将是非常可信的。 |
| 570 | And we do some tests that are sort of like the previous paper, where we test how well | 我们做一些测试 有点像前一篇论文, 在那里,我们测试有多好 |
| 571 | those baselines correspond to what people actually did in areas that did not enroll | 这些基线与人们在未注册地区的实际工作相对应。 |
| 572 | in carbon projects, and it seems like they work pretty well. | 在碳项目中, 它似乎运行得很好。 |
| 573 | So if we use that approach and look at how well, when we calculate how much carbon was | 因此,如果我们使用这种方法,看看如何好, 当我们计算碳是多少 |
| 574 | sequestered by a project, and compare that to how many credits that project sold, what | 被项目扣押,并与该项目出售的信用金额相比, |
| 575 | do we find? | 我们找到没有? |
| 576 | And so on average, across all these projects, we're going to use two different statistical | 因此,平均而言,在所有这些项目中, 我们要使用两个不同的统计 |
| 577 | approaches to estimate this. | 评估的方法。 |
| 578 | Ours is this green one. | 我们的是这个绿色的。 |
| 579 | Another pretty good one, we think, is this pink one. | 另一个不错的,我们认为,是这个粉红色的。 |
| 580 | So here we have years to the first offset issuance, so the start of the project. | 因此,这里我们有几年的时间来完成第一次抵消, 所以这个项目的开始。 |
| 581 | So zero right here is the beginning of the project. | 所以这里的零是这个项目的开始。 |
| 582 | Blue is how many carbon credits the project issued. | 蓝色是项目发放的碳信用额。 |
| 583 | And pink and green are what we think are estimated how much carbon was actually sequestered. | 而粉红色和绿色是我们认为的估计 有多少碳实际上被封存。 |
| 584 | And here we've gotten rid of those that first year, because we think those are sort of just | 而这里我们已经摆脱了那些第一年, 因为我们觉得那些只是 |
| 585 | ridiculous. | 荒谬 |
| 586 | We will make this look terrible if we include them. | 如果我们把他们包括在内,我们就会把事情弄糟。 |
| 587 | And so here we find the actual changes that those projects are making, maybe generate | 因此,我们在这里发现了 这些项目正在做出的实际变化, 也许产生 |
| 588 | about half or a little less than half of the credits that are being sold by those projects. | 这些项目出售的信贷约一半或略低于一半。 |
| 589 | So you might think that's really bad, but this is actually a much more hopeful estimate | 所以,你可能会认为这真的很糟糕, 但实际上这是一个更有希望的估计 |
| 590 | than many of the previous papers have found. | 比以前很多论文都发现。 |
| 591 | Some of those papers find that only about 5% of the credits that are being sold by projects | 其中一些文件发现,只有5%的信贷被项目出售。 |
| 592 | are edition. | 是版本。 |
| 593 | And so when we find about 40%, this is much, much better, although still not close to what | 所以,当我们发现大约40%, 这是很多, 好多了,虽然仍然不接近什么 |
| 594 | we'd like it to be. | 我们想成为。 |
| 595 | On the other hand, actually some projects do exactly what they say they were going to. | 另一方面,实际上一些项目 完全按照他们说的去做。 |
| 596 | And so within the California market, there's this program called Direct Environmental Benefit | 所以在加州市场里 有一个叫做直接环境福利的计划 |
| 597 | to the State of California. | 前往加利福尼亚州。 |
| 598 | And it's this extra thing that you have to sign up for to provide a lot of documentation. | 这是额外的东西,你必须注册 提供大量的文档。 |
| 599 | And when I go and read the applications that people submit to say we're providing a direct | 当我去阅读 人们提交的申请 说我们正在提供直接 |
| 600 | environmental benefit to the State of California, mostly what they show is that they're reducing | 给加州带来环境好处, 大多显示他们正在减少 |
| 601 | deforestation in some river area, and that river flows down to the State of California. | 这条河流到加利福尼亚州 |
| 602 | Now it turns out that when they apply for that successfully, the credits that they issue | 结果发现当他们申请成功时 他们发放的信用 |
| 603 | are almost exactly how much carbon they can serve. | 几乎就是它们能提供多少碳。 |
| 604 | But the places that don't have this seem to be doing pretty close to nothing. | 但是那些没有这个的地方 似乎没什么进展 |
| 605 | And so we're curious about why this is happening. | 所以我们好奇为什么会发生这种事。 |
| 606 | Maybe it's just the places, maybe it's just the people who have a lot of capacity, where | 也许只是那些地方 也许只是那些能力很强的人 |
| 607 | they think maybe we should enroll in this direct environmental benefit, but they're | 他们认为也许我们应该 注册这个直接的环境效益,但他们是 |
| 608 | the ones that are actually making the changes. | 那些真正在做改变的人。 |
| 609 | They care about other environmental benefits. | 他们关心其他的环境利益。 |
| 610 | But this is not all negative about the California carbon market. | 但这并不是所有的负面 关于加利福尼亚碳市场。 |
| 611 | So we know how many credits these projects should have produced, and we know their approximate | 因此,我们知道这些项目应该产生多少信贷,我们知道它们的大约 |
| 612 | sales prices. | 销售价格。 |
| 613 | We can look at what the average rate of buying a carbon credit is. | 我们可以看看购买碳信用的平均率是多少。 |
| 614 | And we can say if the protocol generated the credits according to our method, we can see | 我们可以说,如果协议 产生学分 根据我们的方法,我们可以看到 |
| 615 | what the price would have to be for those companies to keep the same profit margin. | 这些公司要保持同样的利润率必须付出什么代价。 |
| 616 | So we said you sold 100 credits, you should have sold 40. | 所以我们说你卖了100个贷款 你应该卖了40个 |
| 617 | What would the price of those 40 credits have to be for you to still be willing to make | 那40个信用值的价格是多少? |
| 618 | the same conservation changes? | 同样的保护变化? |
| 619 | And we can compare that to estimates of the social cost of carbon. | 我们可以把这与碳的社会成本估算相比较。 |
| 620 | So how damaging committing a ton of carbon is to society. | 如此一吨碳会对社会造成多大的伤害。 |
| 621 | And this is what we find. | 这就是我们发现的。 |
| 622 | So here we have the number of projects in dark green, and in this shaded area, we have | 因此,这里我们有 深绿色的项目数量, 在这个阴影地区,我们有 |
| 623 | the total credits issued. | 发放的信贷总额。 |
| 624 | Here we have a social cost of carbon of $50 per ton, which is what it was in 2021 in the | 碳的社会成本是每吨50美元, 而2021年的碳成本 |
| 625 | U.S. | 美国. |
| 626 | And then it was updated to $190 a ton, has since been downgraded. | 之后更新为190元/吨,此后降级. |
| 627 | But we find that actually a lot of these projects and credits would still be willing to sequester | 但是我们发现,实际上 这些项目和信贷 仍然愿意扣押 |
| 628 | carbon at a price that's less than what we think the cost is to society of emitting carbon. | 碳的价格低于我们所认为的 排放碳的社会成本。 |
| 629 | So there are a lot of those projects that are still feasible, even if we assign them | 因此,有很多这样的项目仍然是可行的, 即使我们分配它们 |
| 630 | credits in a way that's a little bit more appropriate. | 学分更合适一点 |
| 631 | So a couple of takeaways here. | 所以这里有一些外卖。 |
| 632 | One is that if you make a system easy to game, people are going to game the system. | 一个是,如果你让一个系统变得容易游戏,人们就会去游戏这个系统. |
| 633 | That's what we see happening with the first year credits. | 这就是我们第一年的学分 |
| 634 | We find that actual changes are still over-credited, people who are managing their forests differently | 我们发现,实际变化仍然被过度评价,人们管理森林的方式不同。 |
| 635 | are still being assigned too many carbon credits. | 碳入计量仍然过多。 |
| 636 | But there is a lot of heterogeneity. | 但有很多异质性。 |
| 637 | In some places, the projects are doing really well, and in some places they're not doing | 有些地方的项目做得非常好 有些地方没有 |
| 638 | very well. | 不错 |
| 639 | The places that have been successfully applied for this VEBS certification are doing really | 成功应用 VEBS 认证的地方正在真正进行 |
| 640 | well, for example. | 举个例子 |
| 641 | But with correct crediting, many of these projects are still feasible. | 但是,有了正确的信用,其中许多项目仍然是可行的。 |
| 642 | But our approach that we used in this paper is actually really similar to this dynamic | 但我们在本文中采用的方法 与这个动态非常相似 |
| 643 | baselines or matching approach. | 基线或匹配方法。 |
| 644 | And so if that were used, then these firms who are generating carbon credits, they would | 因此,如果使用这些, 那么这些公司 产生碳信用额,他们会 |
| 645 | not know how many credits they generated until the end of the project. | 直到项目结束为止,不知道他们产生了多少信用。 |
| 646 | And that's going to make it really challenging for them to decide whether or not to enroll. | 这使得他们很难决定是否注册。 |
| 647 | So I'll wrap up and give you a few minutes for questions. | 所以我会结束 并给你几分钟 的问题。 |
| 648 | But overall conclusions are that carbon markets can be an effective climate solution. | 但总的结论是,碳市场可以成为有效的气候解决办法。 |
| 649 | They have that possibility. | 他们有这种可能性。 |
| 650 | But there's still a lot of work that needs to be done on the way that we calculate baselines | 但是在计算基线的方法上还有许多工作要做 |
| 651 | and the way that we understand the visionality. | 以及我们理解视觉的方式 |
| 652 | And really importantly, the more resistant the baseline is to gaming, the riskier it | 更重要的是,基线越是耐受 赌博,风险就越大 |
| 653 | is for people to enroll, because they don't know how many carbon credits they're going | 是人们的注册,因为他们不知道 他们去多少碳信用额度 |
| 654 | to achieve. | 实现。 |
| 655 | So we're working on how can we design transparent but also robust baseline methodologies. | 因此,我们正在研究如何设计透明但又坚固的基线方法。 |
| 656 | How can we make it possible for firms to enroll while also try to prevent over credit. | 我们怎样才能使公司能够注册,同时努力防止过度信贷。 |
| 657 | Jurisdictional REV is a promising direction, but the baselines that they use are not very | 管辖的REV是一个很有希望的方向,但它们使用的基线并不十分明确。 |
| 658 | robust. | 强壮。 |
| 659 | And we have to learn more about what's going on with this anticipatory deforestation that | 我们必须更深入地了解 这场预想性森林砍伐是怎么回事 |
| 660 | we see in many jurisdictions. | 我们在许多辖区都看到了。 |
| 661 | And finally, machine learning can help us with determining the visionality. | 最后,机器学习可以帮助我们确定视觉。 |
| 662 | We compare this to other approaches, this using remote sensing data and trying to find | 我们用遥感数据与其他方法进行比较,并试图找到 |
| 663 | similar places, trying to project. | 类似的地方,试图投影。 |
| 664 | It really helps estimate how well these projects are working. | 它确实有助于估计这些项目的运作情况。 |
| 665 | And we find that even using that approach, many of these projects and credits are still | 我们发现,即使采用这种方法,许多这些项目和信贷仍然 |
| 666 | viable. | 可行的。 |
| 667 | And with that, I'll wrap up and ask for questions. | 并以此为结问. |
| 668 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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