耶鲁管理学院公开课：美股“七巨头”暴涨暴跌之后，什么才是高科
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:07 | Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event. | 大家好 欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京活动 |
| 0:12 | I'm Carolee Rafferty, a Yale College alumna and executive director of Yale Center Beijing, | 我是Carolee Rafferty 耶鲁大学的校友 北京耶鲁中心执行董事 |
| 0:19 | which is Yale University's home here in China. | 这是耶鲁大学在中国的家 |
| 0:23 | The center was founded in 2014 with a lot of dad's help as Yale's Embassy and Activity | 中心创建于2014年,得到了许多爸爸的帮助,作为耶鲁的大使馆和活动中心. |
| 0:32 | Center serving all of its 14 schools. | 中心为14所学校提供服务。 |
| 0:37 | Over the past 10 plus years, we have hosted thousands of events, such as today's, convening | 在过去10年中,我们主办了数千次活动,例如今天的会议。 |
| 0:43 | thought leaders to discuss critical and cutting edge issues that are shaping our world. | 思考领袖们讨论影响我们世界的关键和尖端问题。 |
| 0:49 | Today I am so delighted to welcome all of you, as well as our distinguished speakers, | 今天,我非常高兴地欢迎各位以及尊敬的发言者, |
| 0:55 | Ted Snyder, the William S. Beinecke Professor of Economics and Management and former dean | Ted Snyder, 威廉·S·贝内克经济学和管理学教授和前任院长 |
| 1:00 | at the Yale School of Management, or SOM, and Logan Bender, a technology investor and | 在耶鲁管理学院,或SOM, 和洛根·班德,一个技术投资者 |
展开字幕全文（1057 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event. | 大家好 欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京活动 |
| 2 | I'm Carolee Rafferty, a Yale College alumna and executive director of Yale Center Beijing, | 我是Carolee Rafferty 耶鲁大学的校友 北京耶鲁中心执行董事 |
| 3 | which is Yale University's home here in China. | 这是耶鲁大学在中国的家 |
| 4 | The center was founded in 2014 with a lot of dad's help as Yale's Embassy and Activity | 中心创建于2014年,得到了许多爸爸的帮助,作为耶鲁的大使馆和活动中心. |
| 5 | Center serving all of its 14 schools. | 中心为14所学校提供服务。 |
| 6 | Over the past 10 plus years, we have hosted thousands of events, such as today's, convening | 在过去10年中,我们主办了数千次活动,例如今天的会议。 |
| 7 | thought leaders to discuss critical and cutting edge issues that are shaping our world. | 思考领袖们讨论影响我们世界的关键和尖端问题。 |
| 8 | Today I am so delighted to welcome all of you, as well as our distinguished speakers, | 今天,我非常高兴地欢迎各位以及尊敬的发言者, |
| 9 | Ted Snyder, the William S. Beinecke Professor of Economics and Management and former dean | Ted Snyder, 威廉·S·贝内克经济学和管理学教授和前任院长 |
| 10 | at the Yale School of Management, or SOM, and Logan Bender, a technology investor and | 在耶鲁管理学院,或SOM, 和洛根·班德,一个技术投资者 |
| 11 | a 耶鲁SOM校友。 | |
| 12 | They will discuss the future performance of leading U.S. tech stocks, also known as the | 他们将讨论美国领先技术库存的未来业绩,也称为 |
| 13 | Magnificent Seven. | 妙庄严七. |
| 14 | They will also explore rising threats from outside the Mag-7, including AI-driven search | 他们还将探索来自Mag-7以外的不断上升的威胁,包括AI驱动的搜索. |
| 15 | tools and open source language models that could disrupt Big Tech's dominance. | 工具和开源语言模型,可以破坏Big Tech的支配地位。 |
| 16 | This series marks the launch of Ted and Logan's Briefings on High Tech Industries, which is | 这个系列标志着Ted和Logan关于高科技工业的简介的发布,即 |
| 17 | a series of free public events inspired by their very popular elective course at the | 一系列免费的公众活动, |
| 18 | School of Management called Economic Analysis of High Tech Industries, where they offer | 管理学院称高科技工业经济分析,提供 |
| 19 | timely insights on major trends shaping the tech sector. | 及时深入了解形成技术部门的主要趋势。 |
| 20 | I'd also like to extend special thanks to Jacob Made, today's moderator, and the Yale | 我还要特别感谢今天的主持人Jacob Made和耶鲁大学 |
| 21 | Center Beijing team for being so thoughtful with organizing and coordinating today's event. | 以北京团队为中心,以如此深思熟虑地组织和协调今天的活动. |
| 22 | So in any ways, thanks to everyone for joining this event. | 因此,无论如何,感谢大家参加这次活动。 |
| 23 | And without further ado, let's welcome Professor Ted Snyder, Logan, and Jacob. | 别再说了 我们来欢迎泰德·斯奈德教授 罗根和雅各布 |
| 24 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 25 | Thank you very much, Carol. | 非常感谢,卡罗尔。 |
| 26 | It's really good to see people from all over the world joining. | 看到世界各地的人加入真是太好了。 |
| 27 | So good morning, good afternoon, good evening. | 早安,下午好,晚上好,谢谢 |
| 28 | And I am Ted Snyder. | 我是泰德・斯奈德。 |
| 29 | I'm an economist, studied at the University of Chicago. | 我是经济学家,在芝加哥大学学习。 |
| 30 | And over the last 40 plus years, I spent a lot of time, when I wasn't deaning, studying | 在过去的40多年里,我花了很多时间, 当我不做院长,学习 |
| 31 | industries. | 工业。 |
| 32 | And Logan and I put together this course on high tech industries that Carol mentioned. | 我和罗根就卡罗尔提到的高科技产业 安排了这个课程 |
| 33 | And we miss it. | 我们想念它。 |
| 34 | And one of the things we miss is the opportunity to talk through current events. | 我们所怀念的一件事就是有机会讨论一下当前的事件。 |
| 35 | And what's happened with the MAG7 since January 1 is pretty extraordinary. | 而自1月1日起的MAG7发生的事情相当不寻常. |
| 36 | So that's our topic today. | 这就是我们今天的主题。 |
| 37 | Let me just refer back to one thing that Carol mentioned when I reflect on my time as Dean | 让我回想起Carol在思考我当Dean时 提到的一个问题 |
| 38 | of Yale School of Management. | 耶鲁大学管理学院。 |
| 39 | A true highlight was the work to establish Yale Center Beijing. | 一个真正的亮点是建立耶鲁中心北京的工作。 |
| 40 | And with obviously a pretty tense relationship at times between China and the US, having | 中美关系有时很紧张 |
| 41 | Yale Center Beijing, I think it's a yet more valuable resource, not only for Yale, but | 耶鲁中心北京,我认为它是一个更有价值的资源,不仅对耶鲁来说,而且对它来说, |
| 42 | hopefully for China, the United States, and beyond. | 希望中国,美国,以及更远。 |
| 43 | So, Logan, maybe you could introduce yourself. | 罗根,也许你可以自我介绍一下 |
| 44 | Thank you, Ted. | 谢谢你,泰德。 |
| 45 | Welcome all to the series. | 欢迎大家加入系列 |
| 46 | As Ted mentioned, we designed this course. | 正如泰德所说 我们设计了这门课程 |
| 47 | I was a Yale student in the MBA program years ago. | 我几年前是耶鲁大学的学生 |
| 48 | My background is in global technology investing, both on the public side and on the private | 我的背景是全球技术投资 无论是在公共方面还是在私人方面 |
| 49 | side. | 侧面。 |
| 50 | After my banking days, I moved into hedge funds, long, short hedge funds. | 银行业过后,我进入了对冲基金,长而短的对冲基金. |
| 51 | I covered China in particular, and Asia and their US and EU counterparts across the | 我特别谈到了中国,以及亚洲和美国和欧盟的对应方。 |
| 52 | ecosystem globally. | 全球生态系统。 |
| 53 | Then I moved into venture capital, and I'm an operating executive at Series A and Series | 之后我进入了风险投资, 我是A系列和系列的运营经理 |
| 54 | B through C software companies in the United States. | B通过美国C软件公司. |
| 55 | And so on behalf of my team, welcome and thank you for listening to us today and sharing | 因此,代表我的团队,欢迎和感谢你们 聆听我们今天和分享 |
| 56 | your time. | 你的时间。 |
| 57 | Carol and team in Beijing, thank you for the nice hosting. | 卡罗尔和球队在北京,谢谢你的好接待. |
| 58 | And let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 59 | Ted, you want to kick it off? | Ted 你想踢开它吗? |
| 60 | Well, let's let's hear from Jakub. | 让我们听听Jakub的消息 |
| 61 | And Jakub, maybe give a little instructions with respect to use of the chat and how we're | 还有Jakub,也许就聊天的用法 以及我们是如何 |
| 62 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我和Logan谈生意 讨论 | |
| 63 | MAG7问题。 | |
| 64 | Oh, yeah. | 对 |
| 65 | So welcome, everyone. | 欢迎各位 |
| 66 | I'm Jakub. | 我叫贾库布 |
| 67 | I've worked with Ted and Logan for many years now, including in 960, which | 我和Ted和Logan合作多年了 包括960年 |
| 68 | is the class that Ted and Logan taught at both Yale SOM and all the genome schools. | 是Ted和Logan在耶鲁SOM和所有基因组学校 教的课 |
| 69 | So we welcome any questions and comments in the chat at any time you wish. | 因此,我们欢迎随时在谈话中提出任何问题和评论。 |
| 70 | But there will be a Q&A at the very end where Logan and Ted can answer your questions to | 但最后会有个A,洛根和泰德可以回答你的问题 |
| 71 | everyone. | 每个人。 |
| 72 | And yeah, I'll be monitoring your chat. | 是的 我会监视你的谈话 |
| 73 | So if you have any questions, just shoot them there. | 所以如果你有任何问题,就在那里拍他们。 |
| 74 | So the first first thing we wanted to talk about is why do we refer to these seven | 所以,我们想谈的第一件事是 为什么我们提到这七 |
| 75 | companies as the MAG7? | 作为MAG7的公司? |
| 76 | So we do have an opening chart on the rise of the MAG7 versus the rest of the S&P | 因此,我们有一个开局图 关于上升的MAG7 相对于其他S&P |
| 77 | 500. | 500块 |
| 78 | And as you know, S&P 500 is the top 500 firms that are publicly listed in the | 正如你们所知,S&P 500是公开上市的500强企业 |
| 79 | United States. | 美国。 |
| 80 | And the MAG7 are Alphabet, also known as Google, Amazon, Apple, Metta, Microsoft, | 而MAG7是字母,又称谷歌,亚马逊,苹果,梅塔,微软, |
| 81 | NVIDIA与特斯拉. | |
| 82 | So, Logan, maybe you would want to just talk through the left hand side of this chart. | 所以,洛根,也许你会想 只是通过这个图表的左手说话。 |
| 83 | Looking at the left chart, we see that not only will discuss market cap and absolute | 看左边的图表,我们看到不仅会讨论市场上限和绝对 |
| 84 | size of these seven companies, but let's look at the left hand chart and how their | 这七家公司的规模,但让我们看看左手图和他们的 |
| 85 | return has eclipsed the S&P 500 return and other indices comparatively. | 返回比照S&P 500 返回和其他指数。 |
| 86 | But just the relative outperformance has been extraordinary, and that has captured the | 但是,只是相对的优异表现是非凡的, 这捕捉到了 |
| 87 | attention of global investors, not just U.S., but really the entire tech ecosystem. | 全球投资者的注意力,不仅仅是美国, 而且实际上整个技术生态系统。 |
| 88 | And so some of these stories and Ted and I often talk in narratives. | 所以有些故事 泰德和我经常用叙事语说话 |
| 89 | What's the story? | 什么情况? |
| 90 | What's the narrative that these companies or each company is telling? | 这些公司或每个公司都说些什么? |
| 91 | And these narratives converge. | 而这些叙事也趋同. |
| 92 | We'll talk about different lines of business and so on that kind of came together in this | 我们来谈谈不同的业务 诸如此类的,我们一起来 |
| 93 | super storm of gain with AI and other themes that drove these extraordinary returns and | 超强收益风暴与AI和其他主题 驱动这些非凡的回报, |
| 94 | expectations of further returns and growth. | 期望进一步回归和增长。 |
| 95 | And now something has changed in the recent months, and we'll explore that in a little | 近几个月来 情况有所改变 我们再研究一下 |
| 96 | bit. | 位数。 |
| 97 | But if we look at the left hand chart, we see the extraordinary gain of the returns | 但是,如果我们看看左手图,我们看到回报的非凡收益 |
| 98 | of the MAG7. | 磁共振图 |
| 99 | And the right hand chart is going to reference or highlight NVIDIA, which became the most | 右手图将引用或突出 NVIDIA, 它成为最 |
| 100 | valuable company in the world from a market cap perspective, eclipsing Microsoft and | 从市场封顶的角度来看,世界上有价值公司对微软公司和 |
| 101 | Apple. | 苹果报. |
| 102 | And you can look at how quickly it dethroned them in 2023 and 2024. | 你可以看看它在2023年和2024年将其解毒的速度. |
| 103 | Back to you, Ted. | 回到你身边 泰德 |
| 104 | So, Logan, if you just look at the left hand chart and you say that top line is the MAG7 | 所以,洛根,如果你只是看左手图, 你说最上面的一行是MAG7 |
| 105 | and the bottom line, a little bit darker red, is S&P 500 minus the MAG7. | 和底线,稍深一点的红色,是S&P 500减去MAG7. |
| 106 | Have you ever seen anything like this? | 你见过这样的东西吗? |
| 107 | I have never seen anything like this. | 我从来没有见过这样的事。 |
| 108 | This has been, again, as I say, it's captured the attention of the world. | 正如我所说,这再次引起了世界的注意。 |
| 109 | I mean, those bottom 493 companies, these are not small companies that we're talking | 我的意思是,那些底层493家公司, 这些不是小公司,我们谈论 |
| 110 | about. | 有关。 |
| 111 | These are all global leaders, not just in tech, but other areas. | 这些都是全球性的领导者,不仅在技术领域,而且在其他领域。 |
| 112 | So this has truly been a historic rally in these names, Ted. | 泰德,这真是一次历史性的集会 |
| 113 | So in 2014, the aggregate market cap of the MAG7 was less than 10% of the S&P 500. | 因此在2014年,MAG7的总市场上限不到S&P500的10%. |
| 114 | In 2024, it was 34%. | 2024年时为34%. |
| 115 | That's a staggering fact that underscores what Logan just said and what's underneath | 这是一个惊人的事实,强调 罗根刚才说的话 和下面是什么 |
| 116 | (原始内容存档于2017-09-21). It, its growing in 计算需求,电子商务,AI. | |
| 117 | And in our course, what we talk about is in these lines of business, the underlying economies | 在我们看来,我们所谈论的 是在这些商业领域,基础经济 |
| 118 | of scale, scope, network effects all contribute to the potential realization of great value | 规模、范围、网络效应都有助于潜在价值的实现 |
| 119 | by individual companies. | 个人公司。 |
| 120 | So along the way, NVIDIA, maybe we should go back to the previous chart, I think it's | 因此,沿途,NVIDIA, 也许我们应该回到前一个图表, 我想这是 |
| 121 | the previous slide, Jacob, on the right hand side, yes, you see, yeah, the right hand | 上一张幻灯片,雅各,右手边,是的,你看,是的,右手 |
| 122 | side, you see NVIDIA starts out a lot lower in market value and then becomes the most | 你可以看到,NVIDIA的市场价值 开始低很多,然后成为最 |
| 123 | valuable company in the world. | 世界上有价值的公司。 |
| 124 | 所以Logan,在MAG7中,我们也有与NVIDIA不同的模式. | |
| 125 | What a phenomenon it is. | 这是一种什么现象。 |
| 126 | Yeah, so with NVIDIA, we've seen their data center, particularly their GPU units, and | 是的,所以NVIDIA, 我们已经看到他们的数据中心, 特别是他们的GPU单位, |
| 127 | also their CUDA ecosystem, let's give props to that, we'll talk about that later, has | 以及他们的CUDA生态系统, 让我们给道具, 我们稍后讨论,有 |
| 128 | really driven and been riding the wave of the AI boom and GPU makers, there's only two | 真正驱动和骑着 AI的浪潮 和GPU制造者, 只有两个 |
| 129 | 其中,AMD和NVIDIA. | |
| 130 | For those that are unfamiliar, these are the chips that do parallel processing, which is | 对于不熟悉的人来说,这些芯片是进行平行处理的,即: |
| 131 | different than a CPU architecture. | 不同于 CPU 架构。 |
| 132 | We're not going to go into architecture today. | 我们今天不打算进入建筑领域. |
| 133 | Needless to say, this has been the apex focal point of all of this is you have all of these | 不用说,这是最高的焦点 这一切都是你拥有的 |
| 134 | giants, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, et cetera, building data centers, pumping money into | 巨型,微软,苹果,亚马逊等,建设数据中心,将资金注入 |
| 135 | the cloud to the tunes of hundreds of billions of dollars, which we'll look at later, NVIDIA | 云去千亿元的曲调 我们稍后再看 NVIDIA |
| 136 | is selling the GPUs, and subsequently, it has absolutely exploded in terms of valuation | 正在出售GPU, 之后,它已经绝对爆炸 在估价方面 |
| 137 | and dominance of the GPU market as its architectures kind of take over the world. | 和主导GPU市场 作为它的架构 类型接管了世界。 |
| 138 | So back to you, Ted, and we'll walk through some other examples of the size of the MAG-7. | 回到你身边,泰德,我们将走过一些 MAG -7大小的其他例子。 |
| 139 | Yeah, so another way to look at the MAG-7 is how do those companies in aggregate compare | 所以看MAG -7的另一种方法 就是这些公司如何比较 |
| 140 | to all of the public listed companies in other countries? | 给其他国家所有上市公司? |
| 141 | And that's what this chart shows. | 这就是这个图表显示的。 |
| 142 | 左边是MAG -7 这是几年前的,NVIDIA | |
| 143 | wasn't yet the biggest company. | 还不是最大的公司 |
| 144 | And on the right hand side, you have, as I indicated, the market value of all public | 右手边有我所说的 所有公众的市场价值 |
| 145 | companies in each of these major economies. | 每一个主要经济体的公司。 |
| 146 | So the MAG-7 by themselves are a lot more valuable than Japan's total publicly listed | 因此,MAG-7本身比日本公开上市的总价值要高得多. |
| 147 | companies. | 企业。 |
| 148 | And in the case of China, so many of the companies in China are not publicly | 而对于中国来说,如此多的中国公司并不公开 |
| 149 | listed. | 列出。 |
| 150 | So there's some, you know, this needs to be evaluated a little bit more | 因此,有一些,你知道, 这需要评估一点点 |
| 151 | carefully. | 小心点 |
| 152 | But our main point is, wow, these MAG-7 companies really have been amazing. | 但我们的要点是,哇, 这些MAG -7公司真的很棒。 |
| 153 | But Logan, what happened after January 1st? | 但洛根,1月1日之后发生了什么? |
| 154 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 155 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 156 | As I noted earlier, with the growth in returns and the rise in the stock | 如我先前所述,随着收益的增加和库存的增加 |
| 157 | prices of this basket of companies also comes with elevated expectation, extraordinarily | 这一篮子公司的价格也带来了更高的期望,尤其是: |
| 158 | elevated expectation. | 更高的期望值。 |
| 159 | AI is another one. | AI是另一个。 |
| 160 | We'll get into that in more detail later is, OK, you have these apex technologies like | 我们稍后会更详细地讨论这个问题, 好吧,你有这些顶级技术,比如: |
| 161 | artificial intelligence that are expanding the total addressable market of many industries, | 人工智能正在扩大许多行业的可解决市场, |
| 162 | not just in software, but in manufacturing and other verticals that are very large and | 不仅在软件方面,而且在制造和其他纵向方面,这些纵向都非常大,并且 |
| 163 | global implications. | 全球影响。 |
| 164 | And all of these companies are well capitalized enough, are large enough, | 所有这些公司都有足够的资本 足够大 |
| 165 | have the engineering firepower and human capital talent to essentially invade or try to | 拥有工程的火力和人力资本 基本上入侵或试图 |
| 166 | establish a foothold. | 建立一个立足点。 |
| 167 | Let's not forget autonomous driving, TED and ADAS, Tesla, for example. | 我们不要忘记自主驾驶,例如TED和ADAS,Tesla。 |
| 168 | So all of these companies have are building data centers, are buying GPUs, are in the | 所以所有这些公司都在建立数据中心 购买GPU 正在 |
| 169 | race, so to speak. | 说到种族 |
| 170 | We'll talk about the venture investment that's in the billions of | 我们来谈谈 投资数十亿 |
| 171 | dollars that these companies are also participating in the private ecosystem as well. | 这些公司也参与私人生态系统。 |
| 172 | What happened in the stumbling block? | 绊脚石上发生了什么? |
| 173 | Well, maybe the expectations got ahead of themselves in the market as a market participant. | 作为市场参与者,市场预期值已经超前了。 |
| 174 | This often happens. | 这经常发生。 |
| 175 | Your expectation may exceed your appetite. | 你的期望可能超过你的胃口。 |
| 176 | All of a sudden, there's been risk off. | 突然间,就冒了险 |
| 177 | And we'll talk about different expectations politically later. | 我们稍后将讨论不同的期望。 |
| 178 | But needless to say that all of this capex spending, all of these expectations around AI, | 但不必说,所有这一切 封顶支出, 所有这些期望围绕AI, |
| 179 | are they monetizing it? | 他们是否将它货币化? |
| 180 | Is it going to be a true growth driver relative to the core businesses? | 相对于核心企业,它是否将成为真正的增长驱动力? |
| 181 | Or have we gotten ahead of ourselves? | 还是我们超越了自己? |
| 182 | And now we're pulling back and waiting for the prove it story. | 现在我们撤走 等待证明它的故事。 |
| 183 | And that's what we're going to look at today is what happened. | 这就是我们今天要看到的是发生了什么。 |
| 184 | You've seen valuations come down materially. | 你们已经看到 估价在物质上下降。 |
| 185 | And if you remember the previous chart of the absolute size of these companies, this is | 如果你记得这些公司的 绝对规模的上一个图表 |
| 186 | trillions of dollars in market cap that has been wiped off these names. | 数以万亿计的市场封顶被抹去 |
| 187 | And so this is no small event. | 因此,这不是一个小事件。 |
| 188 | It's quite seismic. | 相当地震. |
| 189 | In fact, not just impacting institutional investors, retail investors and others in the | 事实上,不仅仅是影响机构投资者、零售投资者和其他投资者。 |
| 190 | ecosystem. | 生态系统。 |
| 191 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}Ted {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}泰德 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你觉得呢 | |
| 192 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 193 | So one of our main points today is to just emphasize that everything leading up | 因此,我们今天的要点之一是,只是强调,一切导致 |
| 194 | to the end of 2024 was phenomenal on the upside. | 到了2024年底 反之亦然 |
| 195 | And as the next chart shows, what happened afterwards is phenomenal on the downside. | 下一张图表显示, 之后发生的事情 令人惊叹地呈现出下滑趋势。 |
| 196 | The tech giants really brought down the market. | 科技巨头真的把市场搞垮了 |
| 197 | The declines have been huge. | 下降幅度很大。 |
| 198 | Tesla, as we showed, 40 percent Nvidia in the range of 30 percent. | 特斯拉,正如我们显示的, 40%的恩维迪亚在30%之间。 |
| 199 | And as Logan just mentioned, that the market cap losses in billions of dollars are are | 正如洛根刚才提到的那样 数十亿美元的市场上限损失是 |
| 200 | just huge. | 只是巨大的。 |
| 201 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 202 | That's I think it deals with Nvidia. | 我认为它涉及恩维迪亚。 |
| 203 | And it is down 30 percent. | 它下降了30%。 |
| 204 | And by itself, when it declined, those are some of the biggest losses in stock market | 本身,当它下降, 这些是一些最大的损失 在股票市场 |
| 205 | history. | 历史 |
| 206 | Apple had a big loss recently, I think, and maybe in the 600 range. | 苹果最近损失惨重, 我想,也许在600个范围内。 |
| 207 | But, you know, when you see something like this again, I personally haven't seen anything | 但是,你知道,当你再次看到这样的事情, 我个人还没有看到任何东西 |
| 208 | like this. | 像这样 |
| 209 | It seems completely unprecedented to me to have a company lose this much on | 这对我来说是前所未有的 公司损失这么多 |
| 210 | various single days. | 不同的日子。 |
| 211 | Now, I should mention, of course, the last few days, the last two days have been positive | 现在,我当然要提到,过去几天,过去两天是积极的 |
| 212 | for the Mag-7. | 为马格 -7。 |
| 213 | So we should keep that in mind. | 所以我们应该记住这一点。 |
| 214 | Thanks to Yacob, we got up to date numbers as of January 21. | 多亏了雅各,1月21日有了最新数字. |
| 215 | So what are the explanations? | 解释是什么? |
| 216 | Logan just mentioned sort of the market sentiment, getting ahead of itself and so | 洛根刚刚提到市场情绪, 超越自己,所以 |
| 217 | forth. | 离开。 |
| 218 | But I think we want to at least talk through three explanations. | 但我认为,我们至少要通过三个解释来谈谈。 |
| 219 | And for those of you who were in our class, this is what we tried to do, was identify | 对于你们中那些在我们班上的人, 这是我们试图做的,是确认 |
| 220 | hypotheses for changes that we observed. | 假设我们观察到的变化。 |
| 221 | And the first one is greater risk of recession in the U.S. | 而第一个是美国衰退的风险更大. |
| 222 | and beyond. | 和超越。 |
| 223 | The second is tariffs and rising global tensions. | 第二是关税和全球紧张局势加剧。 |
| 224 | And the third is competition. | 第三是竞争 |
| 225 | And we would we would identify competition within the Mag-7 and competition from rivals | 我们会找出马格 -7内部的竞争和对手的竞争 |
| 226 | outside of that set. | 在那个场景之外 |
| 227 | In terms of the risk of recession, what's happened with the likelihood of a U.S. | 在衰退风险方面,美国可能发生的事情. |
| 228 | You've seen risk off, Ted, in terms of investor appetite. | 泰德,你已经看到了风险 投资者的胃口 |
| 229 | Something we say in the markets is above all markets like clarity. | 在市场上我们所说的,首先是清晰的市场。 |
| 230 | They like clarity in messaging, both political messaging, geopolitical messaging, | 他们喜欢清晰的信息, 政治信息,地缘政治信息, |
| 231 | messaging from companies or industries that there is a path forward, even if the path | 来自公司或行业的讯息说,即使有前进的道路 |
| 232 | forward isn't as bright as one would have hoped, say, last year or last quarter, but | 前方的亮度 不如去年或上季度所希望的那么高 |
| 233 | that there's clarity in the marketplace brings a sense of calm and a sense of more | 市场明晰 带来平静感 和更多 |
| 234 | ease of trend. | 趋势容易。 |
| 235 | Now, let's step back from that. | 现在,让我们退后一步。 |
| 236 | Let's look at the volatility of tech earnings in general. | 让我们来看看技术收入的波动性。 |
| 237 | A software company misses their earnings. | 一个软件公司错过了他们的收入。 |
| 238 | The stock could gap up or down 20 percent. | 股票可能会有20%的缺口。 |
| 239 | That doesn't necessarily phase investors, but it's the magnitude and the size of all | 这不一定是投资人阶段的 但它是规模和大小 |
| 240 | of these names coming down this much that tells you, hold on, there is a big | 这些名字 下来这么多 告诉你,坚持住,有一个大 |
| 241 | step back and pause in risk appetite in U.S. | 退后 暂停美国的风险食欲 |
| 242 | equities and also global investors that invest in U.S. | 股票和在美国投资的全球性投资者。 |
| 243 | (原始内容存档于2018-09-26). Supresh, Ted. | |
| 244 | And so are we facing a slowdown? | 我们正面临减速吗? |
| 245 | Are we facing a recession? | 我们面临衰退吗? |
| 246 | What's the Fed saying, et cetera? | 联邦探员怎么说的? |
| 247 | So there's a lot of mixed messaging. | 故多有杂传. |
| 248 | There's a lot of volatility that's created in this type of environment. | 这种类型的环境产生了大量的波动. |
| 249 | And you're seeing that reflected in the stock price, Ted. | 你正在看到这 反映在股票价格,泰德。 |
| 250 | So many of you follow these kinds of predictions. | 很多人都遵循这种预测。 |
| 251 | But if you distill this this first issue into probabilities of a U.S. | 但如果你把这第一个问题 分解成美国的概率 |
| 252 | recession, we've got Goldman Sachs putting it at 45 percent. | 经济萧条,我们让高盛 将其45%。 |
| 253 | IMF有40%。 | |
| 254 | But a lot of people pay attention to Jamie Dimon and he puts it he and his bank put it | 但很多人都注意杰米·迪蒙,他说他和他的银行都这样 |
| 255 | at 60 percent, as does Morgan Stanley. | 百分之六十,摩根斯坦利也一样 |
| 256 | So, yes, the U.S. | 所以,是的,美国。 |
| 257 | is facing a higher likelihood of recession. | 目前面临更大的衰退可能性。 |
| 258 | And these these recession probabilities have moved up | 这些衰退的概率上升了 |
| 259 | substantially since January one. | 从1月1日起 |
| 260 | The second explanation is, of course, all of the controversy, | 第二种解释当然是 所有争议, |
| 261 | lack of clarity, as Logan just mentioned, around tariffs. | 正如洛根刚才提到的,在关税问题上缺乏明确性。 |
| 262 | And for those of you who know me, I mean, I try to be candid and sometimes blunt. | 对你们这些认识我的人来说,我是说,我尽量坦率,有时直言不讳。 |
| 263 | But the the introduction of the possibility of these huge tariffs | 但引入这些巨额关税的可能性 |
| 264 | is for me, one of the probably the worst domestic | 对我来说,可能是最糟糕的家庭之一 |
| 265 | policy mistake by the United States in my lifetime. | 美国在我一生中的政策错误。 |
| 266 | The the U.S. economy was doing well. | 美国经济表现良好. |
| 267 | Yes, there were issues around inflation. | 是的,有关于通货膨胀的问题。 |
| 268 | Yes, there are some maybe concerns around trade deficits. | 对,也许对贸易赤字有些担心。 |
| 269 | But we also remember that the opposite of trade deficits is capital inflows. | 但我们也记得,与贸易赤字相反的是资本流入。 |
| 270 | But the way this has been managed and introduced has just been | 但这种管理和引入的方式刚刚 |
| 271 | I it's I can't understand it. | 我无法理解 |
| 272 | It's just been really a self-inflicted wound on the United States. | 这对美国来说只是个自我伤害 |
| 273 | It's a little bit like an own goal in World Cup, | 这有点像自己在世界杯的进球 |
| 274 | close to the end of a tied match. | 接近捆绑的比赛结束 |
| 275 | It's just staggering to me that that the U.S. | 这让我惊讶的是,美国。 |
| 276 | has made this this mistake. | 已经犯了这个错误。 |
| 277 | So that's, of course, fueled rising global tensions. | 因此,当然,这助长了不断加剧的全球紧张局势。 |
| 278 | And it's not just between China and the U.S. | 而不只是中美之间. |
| 279 | People in Canada are mad at the United States. | 加拿大人对美国很生气. |
| 280 | People in the EU are mad at people in the United States. | 欧盟民众对美国民众不满. |
| 281 | So I think the rising global tensions is one of the outside forces | 所以我认为全球紧张局势的加剧 是外部力量之一 |
| 282 | that we have talked about in the class for five years. | 我们在课堂上谈了五年 |
| 283 | But now it's broadened as well as gotten deeper. | 但是现在它已经扩大 并且越来越深。 |
| 284 | So those are two explanations. | 这就是两个解释。 |
| 285 | But neither of them really by themselves | 但他们两个都不是真正的自己 |
| 286 | explains the data, because what we see is that the mag seven | 解释数据,因为我们看到的是 磁石7 |
| 287 | have gone down in market cap by more than the rest of the market. | 市场上限下降了超过其他市场。 |
| 288 | So that suggests there are other things going on. | 这说明还有其他事情正在发生。 |
| 289 | And one of the things being an economist who studied | 身为经济学家 研究 |
| 290 | industries for a long time is I'd like to suggest | 长久以来,我建议 |
| 291 | this third hypothesis, which is greater competition. | 第三个假说,这是更大的竞争。 |
| 292 | So let's let's get into that issue, which we, of course, deal with | 让我们来谈谈我们当然要处理的问题 |
| 293 | in the course. | 在课程。 |
| 294 | But this this next chart, I think, is is important | 但这个下一张图表 我认为很重要 |
| 295 | in and that it's not completely it's a little bit exaggerated. | 和它不是完全 它有点夸张。 |
| 296 | But if you go back in time, 10 years ago, the mag seven used to compete | 但如果你回到10年前的时代 7号弹匣就用来竞争 |
| 297 | in distinct competitive lanes. | 在不同的竞技道。 |
| 298 | So if you imagine a swimming competition | 所以,如果你想象一个游泳比赛 |
| 299 | with the ropes, with seven lanes, you had Alphabet focusing on | 用绳子,有七条道, 你有一个字母集中 |
| 300 | 服务,搜索,YouTube地图等. | |
| 301 | Amazon, its two primary lines of business, e-commerce and cloud. | 亚马逊,其两大业务领域,电子商务和云. |
| 302 | Apple, with its devices and ecosystem, met, of course, with social platforms. | 苹果及其装置和生态系统,当然与社会平台相遇。 |
| 303 | Microsoft software for businesses and platforms | 企业和平台的微软软件 |
| 304 | and video was emerging as as | 视频呈现为 |
| 305 | Logan explained, focusing on ships, complementary software. | 罗根解释,专注于船只,互补软件. |
| 306 | The most important software is this this CUDA software. | 最重要的软件是这个CUDA软件. |
| 307 | And they were starting to build | 他们开始建设 |
| 308 | a strong position through the combination of those two. | 通过两者的结合,形成一个坚强的立场。 |
| 309 | And of course, Tesla on EVs. | 当然,特斯拉在EVs。 |
| 310 | So imagine visually, you've got these distinct lanes | 所以想象一下,你有这些独特的道路 |
| 311 | in the swimming pool. | 在游泳池里。 。 。 |
| 312 | But those give way to sort of a free for all | 但那些让位给 某种免费给所有人 |
| 313 | like waterball competition among them. | 就像水球在他们之间竞争 |
| 314 | And here are some examples | 这里有一些例子 |
| 315 | or background as to why why why have the lanes sort of gotten blurred? | 或者为什么车道变得模糊? |
| 316 | Logan, you want to comment on this? | 罗根,你想评论这个吗? |
| 317 | This is a great McKinsey slide. | 这是一个伟大的麦肯锡幻灯片。 |
| 318 | Yeah, this is sort of a McKinsey report. | 对,这是麦肯锡的报告 |
| 319 | And the the basis of it is that there's arenas of competition | 其基础是,有竞技场 |
| 320 | that were legacy and then arenas of competition | 这些是遗产,然后是竞技场 |
| 321 | that are now in the present that have gotten bigger. | 已经变得更大。 |
| 322 | Let's look at some of these payments, e-commerce, electric vehicles, | 看看这些付款 电子商务 电动车辆 |
| 323 | cloud services on and on on the right hand side of the chart. | 云服务于图中右手边. |
| 324 | And so these are large, large areas where, again, as I mentioned, | 因此,这些是大,大 地区,再次,如我所提到的, |
| 325 | these tech leaders, they are well capitalized enough | 这些技术领袖,他们有足够的资本 |
| 326 | and have the talent to compete in this or so they say they do. | 并且有天份来参加比赛 他们也这么说 |
| 327 | And they're spending accordingly. | 他们正在相应花费。 |
| 328 | And so we're seeing a convergence. | 所以我们看到了一个趋同。 |
| 329 | One one way I was struck a while ago, looking at the most recent LLMs | 一种方式是,我被击中 之前,看最近的LLMS |
| 330 | and the retrieval models, chat, GPT and so on. | 以及检索模型,聊天,GPT等. |
| 331 | And when you talk to people, not just in the marketplace, | 当你和别人说话, 不只是在市场上, |
| 332 | but even amongst your family and school and things like that, | 但即使是在你的家庭和学校里 之类的事情上 |
| 333 | 他们用Google多少了? | |
| 334 | What if I woke up? | 如果我醒了怎么办? |
| 335 | What if you woke up one day and I told you the door to search is now open? | 如果你有一天醒来,我告诉你 搜索的门现在打开了呢? |
| 336 | That yesterday, Google had a 95% search dominance | 昨天,谷歌拥有95%的搜索优势 |
| 337 | and now it's completely open for competition. | 现在它完全开放 竞争。 |
| 338 | I mean, what a mind blowing idea. | 我意思是,这主意真令人发指 |
| 339 | Nobody would have believed you five years ago, but now that's changed. | 五年前没人会相信你 但现在情况变了 |
| 340 | And the velocity of change in tech is something that Ted and I emphasize | 科技变革的速度是泰德和我强调的 |
| 341 | and highlight over and over again. | 并反复突出. |
| 342 | It's the velocity and the magnitude of change in the tech ecosystem | 这是技术生态系统变化的速度和规模 |
| 343 | that is so extraordinary and why we're almost we almost have to do current events | 这太不寻常了,为什么我们几乎不得不做时事 |
| 344 | because there's so much going on at such scale. | 因为有这么多 在如此的规模。 |
| 345 | And the mag seven are kind of leading are in the vanguard of this. | 和马格七 有点领先 在先锋这一点。 |
| 346 | And so these arenas of competition that are emergent | 所以这些竞技场出现 |
| 347 | or are more established now, but are still growing, rapidly expanding. | 或已经建立,但仍在增长,迅速扩张。 |
| 348 | The reach is global. | 其影响是全球性的。 |
| 349 | That's what this chart is all about, Ted. | 这就是这个图表的目的 Ted |
| 350 | Yeah, you take an example like on the right hand side, | 是啊,你拿一个例子 像在右手边, |
| 351 | video and audio entertainment. | 视频和音频娱乐。 |
| 352 | You know, we might have thought 10 years ago that, well, | 你知道,我们可能 想到十年前,嗯, |
| 353 | people are maxed out in terms of video and audio entertainment, but not so. | 人们在视频和音频娱乐方面最多,但并非如此。 |
| 354 | The the freedom to watch anything, wherever | 自由观看任何东西,任何地方 |
| 355 | at whatever time means that that's an arena that's actually | 无论何时 都意味着这是一个竞技场 |
| 356 | has become really attractive to a lot of companies. | 对很多公司来说 已经变得很有吸引力了 |
| 357 | So that's the background as to what's happening with this competition point. | 这就是这个竞争点的背景。 |
| 358 | The next slide gives, I think, examples of competition within the mag seven. | 我认为,下一张幻灯片给出了7号地图内的竞争实例。 |
| 359 | So we used to think of, | 所以我们曾经想, |
| 360 | well, Amazon in the United States really had a dominant share. | 亚马逊在美国确实占有主导地位。 |
| 361 | I use that term intentionally because I think the term dominant | 我故意使用这个词,因为我认为这个术语占主导地位 |
| 362 | share gets used a lot, but it things don't stay that way. | 分享被使用了很多, 但事情不是这样。 |
| 363 | Dominance is oftentimes short lived. | 统治权常常是短暂的。 |
| 364 | And one of the reasons why e-commerce | 电子商务的原因之一 |
| 365 | has featured more competition is that they're now | 更多的竞争表现在 他们现在 |
| 366 | competitors from social commerce, right? | 社会商业的竞争者 对吧? |
| 367 | I mean, when you go on social commerce platforms, you get ads. | 我的意思是,当你去 社交商业平台,你得到广告。 |
| 368 | It's different. | 其义不同. |
| 369 | It's not intentional search, | 这不是故意的搜索, |
| 370 | but it can be targeted and lead you to think about purchasing particular | 但它可以成为目标 引导你考虑购买特定 |
| 371 | products and services. | 产品和服务。 |
| 372 | Tesla, EV working on | 特斯拉,EV正在研究 |
| 373 | autonomous driving. | 自动驾驶。 |
| 374 | 但Alphabet,Google在Waymo公司做了大量投资. | |
| 375 | And so we get competition between those two of the mag seven data centers. | 因此,我们得到了竞争 在这两个 mag 七个数据中心。 |
| 376 | We've had competition for for quite a while. | 我们竞争了很久了 |
| 377 | AWS, Amazon and Microsoft, for example, Apple and Amazon. | AWS,亚马逊和微软,例如苹果和亚马逊. |
| 378 | Same thing. | 同样的事情。 |
| 379 | They've been competing, but the ad tools. | 他们一直在竞争,但广告工具。 |
| 380 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 381 | A lot of competition. | 竞争激烈. |
| 382 | Logan mentioned the search engine and more fine point competition. | 洛根提到搜索引擎和更精细的点数竞争. |
| 383 | Alphabet owns YouTube, which is unbelievably great resource for them. | Alphabet拥有YouTube,这对他们来说是不可思议的伟大资源. |
| 384 | And it competes with Metta and others for ad revenue. | 它与梅塔等人竞争广告收入. |
| 385 | So going back to the metaphor of lanes and the swimming pool. | 所以回到车道和游泳池的比喻。 |
| 386 | Well, they're actually more than one competitor within the mag seven | 他们实际上不止一个竞争对手 在弹匣7 |
| 387 | in any given lane as we look across their lines of business. | 在任何特定航道上,当我们看 他们的业务线。 |
| 388 | Logan, one of the tools that you introduced in the course | 罗根,你在课程中介绍的工具之一 |
| 389 | is valuation analysis using a tool called | 使用一个叫做 |
| 390 | some of the parts and maybe that's S.O.T.P. | 有些零件,也许就是S. O. T. P. |
| 391 | And maybe you could talk through Amazon as an example. | 或许你可以用亚马逊语作为例子 |
| 392 | Yeah, I'll just highlight a couple of things. | 是啊,我只是强调一些事情。 |
| 393 | So in the class, we teach different valuation methodologies. | 所以在课堂上,我们教不同的估价方法。 |
| 394 | We use the DCF, which is kind of the backbone | 我们使用DCF, 这是一种骨干 |
| 395 | or historical model of how to value an asset, how to value business over time. | 或历史模式如何估价资产,如何在一段时间内估价业务。 |
| 396 | As analysts, we value how money and trade moves over time. | 作为分析家,我们重视金钱和贸易如何随时间演变。 |
| 397 | In the case of S.O.T.P., that's one of my favorite valuation | 就S. O. T. P. 而言,这是我最喜欢的估价之一 |
| 398 | methodologies that I used as a Wall Street analyst. | 我用来做华尔街分析员的方法 |
| 399 | And often this is a great model for conglomerates | 这常常是企业集团的伟大典范 |
| 400 | or large companies that have multiple lines of business | 或有多种业务的大型公司 |
| 401 | that would trade at different valuations, such as your cloud services, | 以不同的价值交易 比如你的云服务 |
| 402 | would command a different valuation than your e-commerce, for example. | 比起你的电子商务,它需要不同的估价。 |
| 403 | And so that's why we say it's some of the parts. | 所以我们才说这是一部分 |
| 404 | You get a more holistic picture of what all of these assets | 你对所有这些资产有了更全面的了解 |
| 405 | should trade at in the marketplace. | 应在市场上进行交易。 |
| 406 | This is a leading analyst, S.O.T.P. | 这是首席分析师S. O. T. P. |
| 407 | summary of Amazon. | 亚马逊摘要. |
| 408 | And what I would like to point out here is the advertising services. | 我想指出的是广告服务。 |
| 409 | If we look at the enterprise value, | 如果我们看看企业价值 |
| 410 | essentially what they're valuing the ad business at today or in the future, | 他们今天或将来对广告业的评价 |
| 411 | would be six hundred and forty billion dollars. | 这将是6400亿美元。 |
| 412 | Imagine, again, if six or ten years ago, you'd say, hey, listen, | 想象一下,再次, 如果六或十年前, 你会说,嘿,听着, |
| 413 | I think Amazon's going to have a fifty billion dollar run rate | 我认为亚马逊的运行率会达到500亿美元 |
| 414 | ad business in revenue every year. | 广告业务每年收入。 |
| 415 | And if I put a multiple of ten on that for future valuation, I come up with, | 如果我把一个10倍 对于未来估值,我提出, |
| 416 | you know, five hundred billion dollars or six hundred billion dollars. | 五千亿或六千亿 |
| 417 | You would sound like a crazy person. | 你会听起来像个疯子 |
| 418 | But that's what Ted's pointing out is that we have a convergence. | 但Ted指出的是,我们有一个共同点。 |
| 419 | And these giants have put tremendous | 这些巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型 |
| 420 | thought and craft into building these gigantic businesses. | 思考和创造这些巨大的企业。 |
| 421 | And just the ad business alone being valued at six hundred billion dollars | 只有广告生意价值六千亿美元 |
| 422 | is extraordinary, Ted, a huge growth engine for them. | 这是非凡的,泰德, 一个巨大的增长引擎 他们。 |
| 423 | Intent to search data harvesting. | 有意搜索数据采集. |
| 424 | There's all sorts of different ancillary benefits available to Amazon | 亚马逊有各种各样的附带利益 |
| 425 | just through that business line alone. | 仅仅通过那条商业线。 |
| 426 | And so we use some of the parts to emphasize and highlight these things | 所以我们用部分来强调和强调这些东西 |
| 427 | in the course, and we educate the students on how to apply these models | 我们教育学生如何应用这些模型 |
| 428 | in the marketplace. | 在市场。 |
| 429 | So core retail is the third row. | 所以核心零售是第三行. |
| 430 | Logan just called out the advertising services, the second row. | 罗根刚刚叫了广告服务 第二排 |
| 431 | Those numbers, you know, they're | 这些数字,你知道,他们是 |
| 432 | those are surprising to think that the ad business is that close | 令人惊讶的是,广告业务 如此接近 |
| 433 | to the traditional e-commerce business. | 传统电子商务业务。 |
| 434 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 435 | Let me go back to my swimming pool metaphor. | 让我回到游泳池的隐喻 |
| 436 | We had the swimming pool. | 我们有游泳池。 |
| 437 | We had lanes. | 我们有车道。 |
| 438 | The swimming pool has an end. | 游泳池有尽头。 |
| 439 | It has a width. | 它有宽度。 |
| 440 | Well, now there's something new beyond the swimming pool. | 现在游泳池外面有新东西了 |
| 441 | And that's a whole nother competitive space. | 这是整个不 她的竞争空间。 |
| 442 | And that is, of course, AI. | 当然,这是AI。 |
| 443 | And that is that's attracted competition | 这就是吸引的竞争 |
| 444 | by the mag seven individually, but also, of course, others. | 由7号岩浆单独,当然还有其他的。 |
| 445 | And what how is it that companies | 公司怎么样? |
| 446 | compete in the AI space? | 在人工智能空间竞争? |
| 447 | Well, it takes a number of things | 嗯,这需要很多东西 |
| 448 | to be a competitor in AI data | 作为AI数据的竞争者 |
| 449 | centers, data, AI models, | 中心、数据、人工智能模型、 |
| 450 | the training of those models and AI applications. | 培训这些模型和AI应用程序。 |
| 451 | And those those are many. | 这些是很多。 |
| 452 | I just identified two year customer experiences and operations. | 我刚刚确认了两年的客户经验和操作 |
| 453 | But this is the new pool. | 但这里是新泳池 |
| 454 | And there are no lanes. | 而无道. |
| 455 | OK. And and that's that's really been the phenomenon | 摆 而这就是真正的现象 |
| 456 | that was highlighted in the course by Neil Shen, | 尼尔沈在课程中强调, |
| 457 | founder of Yale Center Beijing several years ago. | 几年前是耶鲁中心北京的创始人 |
| 458 | I asked him, Neil, what where are you spending time? | 我问他,尼尔,你在哪里花时间? |
| 459 | And he said, well, half of my time I'm spending on AI. | 他说,嗯,我一半的时间 我花在AI上。 |
| 460 | And and he, of course, being Neil Shen | 他当然是尼尔·沈 |
| 461 | was right. | 说得没错 |
| 462 | This is the big new pool. | 这是新的大游泳池。 |
| 463 | So, Logan, maybe you could just talk through the next slide, | 所以,洛根,也许你可以 只是通过下一个幻灯片, |
| 464 | which is what's the AI spend look like? | 人工智能是什么样子的? |
| 465 | Thank you, Ted. | 谢谢你,泰德。 |
| 466 | So when we talk about | 所以,当我们谈论 |
| 467 | these apex technologies such as AI, | 这些尖端技术,如AI, |
| 468 | you ask yourself as a valuation analyst, | 你问自己作为一个估价分析师, |
| 469 | OK, well, what are these companies really? | 好吧,这些公司到底是什么? |
| 470 | What dollars are they putting behind this effort? | 他们为此付出了多少代价? |
| 471 | You say that, yes, there's big data and we can | 你说,是的,有大数据,我们可以 |
| 472 | we can capture this opportunity. | 我们可以抓住这个机会。 |
| 473 | Well, what does that really mean? | 这到底是什么意思? |
| 474 | Well, this is a chart of mostly data center spend | 这是一张主要用于数据中心的图表 |
| 475 | in most of the Mag seven names and some other leading tech companies. | 在大多数的Mag七 名称和一些其他主要的技术公司。 |
| 476 | And it just emphasizes how much the spend has grown to buy GPUs, | 它只是强调 花费多少增长 购买GPU, |
| 477 | to stand up data centers, to dump money in AI. | 建立数据中心 把钱扔进AI |
| 478 | I think this is a Jeffries chart. | 我想这是杰弗里的图表 |
| 479 | Just just to emphasize that, yes, these companies are putting hundreds | 只是想强调一下,是的,这些公司正在投入上百 |
| 480 | of billions of dollars every year towards this. | 每年为此花费数十亿美元。 |
| 481 | And look at the twenty twenty seven estimate, | 看看27个估计 |
| 482 | Ted, of three hundred and thirty billion dollars in capital expenditure | Ted 资本支出三千三百亿美元 |
| 483 | towards this effort is an extraordinary sum of money. | 完成这项努力是一笔非常大的资金。 |
| 484 | And I mean, executive boardrooms across the face of the earth are saying, | 我的意思是, 执行董事会 横跨地球的脸说, |
| 485 | OK, what's our primary spend? | 好吧,我们的主要开支是什么? |
| 486 | And they go right into data center and CapEx shows you that they believe | 他们直接进入数据中心 CapEx显示他们相信 |
| 487 | the story or it also possibly tells you that they can't ignore the story. | 故事 也可能告诉你 他们不能忽视故事 |
| 488 | So they have to spend in order to keep up with the trend, | 所以为了跟上潮流 他们必须花钱 |
| 489 | even if fundamentally they have questions about it long term | 就算根本上他们有长期的问题 |
| 490 | or what the terminal valuation is. | 或者什么是终端估值。 |
| 491 | And so that's also driven the boom, as you see in the Mag seven | 这也是推动繁荣的动力 正如你在马格七号上看到的 |
| 492 | and the growth expectation is what's happening on the hyperscalers. | 而增长的预期 正在发生 在超尺度。 |
| 493 | Hypersalers是大型数据中心建设者. | |
| 494 | Where are they spending the money? | 他们把钱花在哪里? |
| 495 | How much money they're spending is reflecting the appetite and the attitude. | 他们花多少钱来反映食欲和态度. |
| 496 | Three notes on this chart. | 本图注三. |
| 497 | One is just the slope. | 一个只是斜坡。 |
| 498 | The increase in spending is so dramatic. | 支出的增加如此惊人。 |
| 499 | Within this time period, excuse me. | 在此期间,请原谅。 |
| 500 | And secondly, you do see Oracle in that in the chart. | 其次,你在图表中看到甲骨文。 |
| 501 | They're small, but that's one of the things that happens | 他们很小,但这是其中之一发生 |
| 502 | is you get more competitors in the AI pool. | 你在AI池里得到了更多的竞争者。 |
| 503 | And the third thing I just wanted to ask you, Logan, when you say | 第三件事我想问你 罗根 当你说 |
| 504 | CapEx, does that include acquisitions of small AI companies? | CapEx,这是否包括收购小型AI公司? |
| 505 | That's a good question. | 问曰. |
| 506 | This chart may not reflect and probably I would guess it does not. | 这个图表可能不反映,而且我猜它可能不反映。 |
| 507 | I'm not sure. | 我不太确定 说不定 |
| 508 | But we have some other charts about VC dollars and CBC dollars | 但是我们有一些其他图表 关于VC美元和CBC美元 |
| 509 | that will reflect the spend in private companies. | 这将反映私人公司的开支。 |
| 510 | And we'll hit on that in a minute. | 我们一会儿再谈 |
| 511 | But the idea is that not only are they investing internally, | 但这个想法是 他们不仅在投资内部, |
| 512 | these firms are investing internally the resources of the firm, | 这些公司正在内部投资公司的资源, |
| 513 | but they have these acquisition teams that are going out and buying assets, | 但他们有这些收购团队 出去购买资产, |
| 514 | buying teams, buying IP that they're trying to bolt on or build | 购买团队,购买IP 他们试图锁定或建设 |
| 515 | into their product streams to generate the revenue, | 进入他们的产品流 创收, |
| 516 | to accelerate the growth inorganically. | 以无机加速增长。 |
| 517 | And we'll look at that in a minute, Ted. | 我们一会儿再看 Ted |
| 518 | Yes, I mean, the reason why I raised this in the US, | 是的,我的意思是,为什么我在美国提出这个, |
| 519 | there's a lot of focus now on the acquisitions | 有很多的焦点 现在在收购 |
| 520 | by the major tech companies of smaller AI companies. | 由小型AI公司的主要技术公司负责。 |
| 521 | And we're not talking about 10 or 20, we're talking about hundreds. | 且说十或二十不说百千. |
| 522 | So going back to Logan's point about the narrative, | 回到洛根的叙述点 |
| 523 | these companies are buying and paying a lot of money for small companies, | 这些公司为小公司购买和支付大量资金, |
| 524 | many of which are just ideas. | 其中许多只是想法。 |
| 525 | They don't have businesses yet. | 他们还没有生意。 |
| 526 | So I don't want to use the term frenzy. | 所以我不想用狂热这个词 |
| 527 | I don't want to say it's irrational. | 我不想说这是非理性的。 |
| 528 | I just want to point out that's a dimension of what's happening with the AI spend. | 我只想指出,这是AI支出发生的一个层面. |
| 529 | We have a little more detail on individual firms within the MAG7 on the next slide. | 在下一张幻灯片中,我们在MAG7中更详细地介绍了个别公司的情况。 |
| 530 | And this is a complementary slide. | 这是一个辅助幻灯片。 |
| 531 | But what you have here is a shorter time period, starting around 2020. | 但是,从2020年左右开始,你在这里的时间很短。 |
| 532 | And on the right hand side, it calls out four of the MAG7, | 在右手边,它呼唤出4个MAG7, |
| 533 | Meta,Alphabet,微软和亚马逊. | |
| 534 | And you look in the last column, which is Q4 of 2024. | 你看最后一列,就是2024年的Q4 |
| 535 | Who's the largest in terms of AI spend? | 人工智能支出最多的是谁? |
| 536 | It might surprise you. | 可能会令你吃惊 |
| 537 | It's Amazon. | 这是亚马逊。 |
| 538 | I have my own views about that. | 我对此有自己的看法。 |
| 539 | I think Amazon probably sees itself as well positioned to really focus on AI | 我觉得亚马逊可能认为自己 完全可以专注于AI |
| 540 | because it has a lot of operational kinds of businesses where they can apply AI models. | 因为它有很多业务类型的企业 他们可以应用AI模型。 |
| 541 | Plus they have from their AWS, their cloud computing business, | 再加上他们的AWS和云计算业务 |
| 542 | they have a lot of business customers who they can turn to and try to market AI applications. | 他们有很多商业客户 他们可以求助于和尝试营销AI应用程序。 |
| 543 | So they have within the bounds of the firm, if you will, a lot of application space. | 因此,他们拥有在公司范围内, 如果你愿意的话, 很多应用空间。 |
| 544 | But these are, again, I think just staggering numbers. | 但是,这些还是,我认为只是惊人的数字。 |
| 545 | And I don't, Logan, I don't think we've seen anything in terms of this kind of spend. | 我没有,洛根,我想我们没有看到 任何这样的花费。 |
| 546 | No, at this scale. | 不,在这个尺度。 |
| 547 | And I try to help the students frame it in the way of if they're an operator. | 我试图帮助这些学生 以他们是否是操作员的方式来设定它。 |
| 548 | Okay, so we read the Wall Street Journal, we're analysts. | 我们读了《华尔街日报》 我们是分析家 |
| 549 | Okay, but what if you're an operator? | 好吧,但如果你是一个操作员? |
| 550 | What if you're an executive and you have to sign off on this, Ted? | 如果你是执行官,你必须签下这个,泰德? |
| 551 | What if you have to say, okay, team, we're going to spend $50 billion this next quarter, | 如果你不得不说,好吧,团队, 我们将花费500亿美元 这个季度, |
| 552 | this next year, building out this initiative. | 明年,将建立这一举措。 |
| 553 | And should we fail, that may be a resume generating event, as I'd say. | 如果我们失败了, 这可能是一个恢复生成事件, 正如我要说。 |
| 554 | And so there's a lot of operational risk on the line here. | 线上也有很多操作风险 |
| 555 | And I want to drive that home, is if you're an operator, | 我想开车回家, 如果你是一个操作员, |
| 556 | would you make these same decisions, Ted? | 你会做同样的决定吗,泰德? |
| 557 | And will it pay off? | 它能回报吗? |
| 558 | So for those of you, I see a fair number of alumni from the class on the webinar. | 所以,对于你们来说, 我看到相当数量的校友 从课堂上的webinar。 |
| 559 | But one of the tools that we introduced in the class was something called the hockey stick. | 但我们在课堂上引入的工具之一 就是冰球棒 |
| 560 | It's a financial profile of a startup. | 创业财经概况. |
| 561 | Now, why are we talking about that? | 我们为什么要谈这个? |
| 562 | I'll connect the dots between startup and mag seven in a moment. | 我会连接点 在启动和mag 7在瞬间。 |
| 563 | But with the hockey stick, what happens is firms sort of go negative. | 但用曲棍球棒, 发生的事情是公司 有点消极。 |
| 564 | I'm sorry, I should mention the horizontal axis here is time. | 对不起,我应该提到这里的横向轴是时间。 |
| 565 | And at the beginning, the companies are losing money. | 一开始,公司正在输钱。 |
| 566 | They're below the zero line. | 它们在零线以下. |
| 567 | And then if things pay off, their revenues and profits turn less negative | 然后如果事情还清,他们的收入和利润就会减少 |
| 568 | at the bottom of the chart and then turn positive, hopefully, at some point in time. | 在图的底部,然后变成正值, 希望,在某个时候。 |
| 569 | So that's the hockey stick. | 这就是冰球棒 |
| 570 | Like I said, we would talk about that typically with startups. | 就像我说的,我们会谈论 通常与初创企业。 |
| 571 | And high tech startups involve expenditures, | 高科技创业需要开支, |
| 572 | and then it takes a while to generate revenues and profits. | 然后需要一段时间来创造收入和利润。 |
| 573 | But I think one of the big questions from our analysis | 但我认为我们分析中一个大问题 |
| 574 | is that we now see many firms making these huge bets in AI. | 我们现在看到很多公司 在AI里做出这些巨大的赌注。 |
| 575 | And if you think about, go back to Logan's analysis around some of the parts, | 如果你考虑一下 回到洛根的分析中去 |
| 576 | it means that inside those financial profiles of the individual mag seven companies, | 这意味着,在7家公司的财务概况中, |
| 577 | we have a line of business AI. | 我们有一个业务线AI。 |
| 578 | And the question back to you, Logan, | 还有你的问题 罗根 |
| 579 | are these companies facing kind of a hockey stick profile for their AI businesses? | 这些公司是否面临 一种曲棍球棒简介 他们的AI业务? |
| 580 | Thank you, Ted. | 谢谢你,泰德。 |
| 581 | If we look at the chart on the left, we see AWS was the first, | 如果我们看左边的图表,我们看到AWS是第一个, |
| 582 | and they called it out too. | 他们也喊了出来。 |
| 583 | I think it was one of their earnings calls. | 我认为这是他们的一个收入电话。 |
| 584 | This is a chart from the Wall Street Journal we had in our current events portion | 这是《华尔街日报》的一张图表 我们的时事部分 |
| 585 | of our course. | 我们的路线。 |
| 586 | Some of the alumni will have seen this. | 有些校友会看到这个的 |
| 587 | Amazon is stating that, yes, we are generating a material amount of revenue for this, | 亚马逊说,是的,我们正在为此创造大量收入, |
| 588 | and we will continue to accelerate that. | 我们将继续加快步伐。 |
| 589 | You see the operating margin on the bottom center, | 你看到底部的操作边距 |
| 590 | that they're able to do this profitably. | 他们能从中获利 |
| 591 | So they would be operating margin positive on this initiative. | 因此,在这项举措方面,它们的业务保障是积极的。 |
| 592 | So it's no longer a loss leader necessarily for them. | 因此,对于他们来说,它不再是损失的领头人。 |
| 593 | We're seeing material traction and monetization. | 我们看到物质牵引和货币化。 |
| 594 | When Ted mentioned the private companies that maybe just have an idea, | 当Ted提到私人公司时 也许只有个想法 |
| 595 | they're pre-revenue, pre-product, | 他们是前收入,前产品, |
| 596 | but they're commanding an extraordinary valuation into the billions even. | 但他们正在对数十亿进行非凡的估价 |
| 597 | Ted, we saw some rounds that were valuing these private companies | 泰德,我们看到一些回合 在重视这些私营公司 |
| 598 | that had no product, no nothing, no real IP, | 没有产品,什么都没有,没有真正的IP, |
| 599 | no corpus of IP that were valued at $2 billion plus. | 没有价值20亿美元的知识产权。 |
| 600 | Well, where's the actual traction? | 那么,哪里是真正的牵引力? |
| 601 | Where's the monetization? | 货币化在哪里? |
| 602 | Here we see that some of the MAG7 are able to drive a material amount of revenue from this. | 这里我们看到,一些MAG7能够从中带动大量收入. |
| 603 | AWS is the first to cross that $10 billion mark. | AWS是第一个突破100亿马克的. |
| 604 | And so are we seeing a hockey stick inflection | 我们也会看到冰球棍的震动 |
| 605 | internal to the companies with these initiatives? | 公司内部有这些倡议? |
| 606 | Yeah, that's the key word, internal to these companies. | 是啊,这是关键词, 这些公司的内部。 |
| 607 | And some companies, you might say, they're looking good. | 有些公司看起来不错 |
| 608 | Other companies, not so good. | 其他公司,不怎么好。 |
| 609 | But one of the basic implications is with this AI spend, | 但其中一项基本意义是 这个AI花费, |
| 610 | the MAG7, in my opinion, have become more risky. | 我认为,军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第7号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军法署第3号军军法署第3号军法署第3号军军法署第3号军法署军法署第3号军法署第3号军军法署第3号军法第3号军法第3号军法第3号军法 |
| 611 | The bets are so big that individually they are more risky investments. | 赌注如此之大,以至于个人的风险更大。 |
| 612 | I think we can skip this, Jakub. | 我想我们可以跳过这个,贾库布。 |
| 613 | And I think we'll just go to individual analyses | 我想我们只是去 个人分析 |
| 614 | and talk through sort of free form what's happening with individual MAG7 companies. | 然后通过免费的形式谈谈 个体MAG7公司的情况 |
| 615 | And again, highlight as we go some of the points that we've raised to date, | 再说一遍,当我们谈到我们迄今提出的一些要点时, |
| 616 | or to this point, which is competition, tariffs, riskiness of AI bets. | 或至此,即竞争,关税,AI赌注的风险. |
| 617 | And we'll start with Nvidia. | 从恩维迪亚开始 |
| 618 | And they have a big AI bet. | 他们有一个大AI赌注。 |
| 619 | I mean, many people view it as an AI company. | 我的意思是,很多人把它看作是AI公司。 |
| 620 | And of course, we had the early January shock with DeepSeq. | 当然,我们与DeepSeq在1月初受到冲击。 |
| 621 | And what that represented was really no surprise to us, | 这代表着我们并不感到惊讶, |
| 622 | even though you may say, well, Nvidia's got a, quote, dominant position in leading edge chips. | 尽管你可以说 恩维迪亚在领先的边缘芯片中 占据了主导地位 |
| 623 | They're selling their chips for a massive $50,000 each. | 他们卖他们的筹码,每人5万块 |
| 624 | That's going to attract competition. | 这将吸引竞争。 |
| 625 | And DeepSeq emerged as a competitor in January 2024. | 而DeepSeq在2024年1月作为竞争对手出现. |
| 626 | Nvidia有什么威胁? | |
| 627 | How significant is it? | 这有多重要? |
| 628 | Logan, I think it depends on, you know, a lot of times you hear people talk about | 洛根,我觉得这取决于,你知道, 很多时候 你听到人们谈论 |
| 629 | the competitive moat that Nvidia has. | Nvidia拥有的竞争护城河。 |
| 630 | I don't really like that term, but it does lead us to ask, well, what really, | 我不太喜欢那个术语,但它确实让我们问,嗯,什么是真正的, |
| 631 | what kind of competitive pressures can it withstand? | 它能承受什么样的竞争压力? |
| 632 | What protections, what advantages does it have? | 它有什么好处? |
| 633 | Go ahead, Logan. | 来吧,洛根。 |
| 634 | Yeah, with DeepSeq, for those that are unfamiliar, | 是啊,和DeepSeq, 对于那些不熟悉的人, |
| 635 | I mean, most of our Asian audience is familiar with DeepSeq | 我们亚洲观众大多熟悉DeepSeq |
| 636 | and there's been a lot of news. | 并有许多消息。 |
| 637 | In the West, it was relatively unknown until what happened in January, | 在西方,直到1月发生的事 都比较未知 |
| 638 | which is a seismic event. | 这是地震事件。 |
| 639 | One of the key points is that the DeepSeq large language model | 关键点之一是DeepSeq大语言模型 |
| 640 | was supposedly trained on a much smaller parameter data set. | 据推测,他们接受了关于一个小得多的参数数据集的培训。 |
| 641 | So this comes back to the competitive moat question. | 这又回到了竞技的护城河问题。 |
| 642 | And so these tech firms in the US, especially in the private side, | 因此,这些技术公司在美国, 特别是在私人方面, |
| 643 | they say, okay, well, we have $500 million that we can spend on a data center | 他们说,好吧,好吧,我们有5亿美元 我们可以花在数据中心 |
| 644 | to train a huge LLM with hundreds of billions of parameters. | 训练具有数千亿参数的巨大LLM. |
| 645 | And DeepSeq is saying, no, no, no, we can develop a competitive model | DeepSeq说,不,不,不,我们可以开发一个竞争模式 |
| 646 | with far less resources. | 资源少得多。 |
| 647 | And that has had a seismic impact on Nvidia's valuation saying, | 这对恩维迪亚的估价产生了地震影响 |
| 648 | wait a minute, Nvidia, they don't need to design and sell all this IP | 等一等,Nvidia, 他们不需要设计和出售所有的IP |
| 649 | 如果DeepSeq说得没错 | |
| 650 | that we can develop a competitive LLM or LLM set | 我们可以开发一个竞争性LLM或LLM集 |
| 651 | on a much smaller amount of parameters, $6 billion or whatever it was. | 以更小的参数,60亿美元或它是什么。 |
| 652 | And so you essentially have these skeletal models | 所以你基本上有这些骨骼模型 |
| 653 | that can perform nearly as good as these LLMs | 和这些LLMS一样出色 |
| 654 | where they pour billions of dollars of capital into them. | 他们把数十亿美元的资金投入其中。 |
| 655 | And so does that threaten Nvidia's competitive moat | 这威胁着恩维迪亚的护城河 |
| 656 | that you don't need the leading GPUs for one, | 你不需要领先的GPU |
| 657 | and you don't need that many of them. | 而且你不需要这么多 |
| 658 | And now let's turn to the CUDA ecosystem. | 现在我们来谈谈CUDA生态系统。 |
| 659 | Ted, do you want to tee that off or do you want me to touch on CUDA? | 泰德,你想把那个解开 还是要我去碰CUDA? |
| 660 | Yeah, well, just one thing about DeepSeq, | 是啊,只有一件事 关于DeepSeq, |
| 661 | you explained it well as a non-technical person | 你是一个非技术人员 |
| 662 | in this training of models. | 在这种模型培训中。 |
| 663 | To me, it's like, forgive the baseball analogy. | 对我来说,这就像, 原谅棒球类比。 |
| 664 | Nvidia starts from home plate and has to go around all the bases. | Nvidia从主盘开始,必须绕过所有基地. |
| 665 | DeepSeq's approach is to start with a distilled model | DeepSeq的方法是从蒸馏模型开始 |
| 666 | and they start on third base. | 他们从三垒开始 |
| 667 | It's just less expensive. | 更不贵. |
| 668 | But yeah, the software is really important. | 软件很重要 |
| 669 | Nvidia is not just a chip company. | Nvidia不仅仅是个芯片公司 |
| 670 | They complement their chips with software | 他们用软件补充芯片 |
| 671 | and they acquired the software called CUDA. | 他们收购了名为CUDA的软件. |
| 672 | I think it was about 10 years ago. | 我想大概是10年前的事了。 |
| 673 | And Logan, given your expertise in software, | 还有Logan 鉴于你的软件专长 |
| 674 | I think they have huge numbers of people around the world | 我想他们在世界各地有很多人 |
| 675 | 使用 CUDA 。 | |
| 676 | And how important is that to Nvidia's success? | 这对恩维迪亚的成功有多重要? |
| 677 | Think about it. | 考虑一下 |
| 678 | So Jensen mentioned at one of the recent events that they held | Jensen在最近的事件中提到 |
| 679 | that about 6 million engineers in the world are fluent or using CUDA. | 世界上大约600万工程师 流利或使用CUDA。 |
| 680 | I don't know the source of that, | 我不知道来源 |
| 681 | but that's the CEO of Nvidia mentioned that | 但Nvidia的首席执行官提到 |
| 682 | when he did one of his stage presentations. | 当他做了他的舞台表演。 |
| 683 | The idea is that you have essentially a generation | 这个想法是,你基本上有一代人 |
| 684 | or two generations of professional engineers | 或两代专业工程师 |
| 685 | that are embedded in this ecosystem. | 被嵌入这个生态系统。 |
| 686 | And you think about that. | 你考虑一下 |
| 687 | When you look at these companies, | 当你看着这些公司, |
| 688 | you see the GPUs and the high-flying headlines. | 你可以看到GPU和高飞头条。 |
| 689 | You don't think to yourself, well, | 你不认为自己,嗯, |
| 690 | who's actually speaking the language that drives the development | 谁是真正的语言 驱动开发 |
| 691 | and uses these tools? | 并使用这些工具? |
| 692 | And so the CUDA ecosystem we believe has been a tremendous advantage | 因此,CUDA生态系统 我们认为是一个巨大的优势 |
| 693 | and Nvidia has invested huge amounts of money and time | 和Nvidia 投入了大量的钱和时间 |
| 694 | into developing CUDA for that very reason, | 为了这个原因,开发CUDA, |
| 695 | which brings about the economic concept of switching costs | 带来了转换成本的经济概念 |
| 696 | that ask an engineer when they go to the next job, | 问一个工程师 当他们去下一个工作, |
| 697 | oh, sorry, you were in CUDA for 10 years. | 哦,对不起,你在CUDA十年。 |
| 698 | Now we have some other architecture to train on. | 现在我们还有别的建筑要训练 |
| 699 | That doesn't necessarily sit very well. | 这不一定是很好的。 |
| 700 | 这成为Nvidia Ted的竞争优势 | |
| 701 | is the idea. | 是这个想法。 |
| 702 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 703 | The investment in what we call specific human capital | 投资于我们所称的具体人力资本 |
| 704 | skills to use this particular software | 使用此软件的技能 |
| 705 | generates switching costs. | 生成切换成本。 |
| 706 | And to really understand how important that is, | 要真正理解这有多重要 |
| 707 | you actually have to figure out how hard is it to switch | 切换到底有多难 |
| 708 | and how many people will switch under various competitive scenarios. | 以及有多少人将在各种竞争情况下换班。 |
| 709 | So that's what we would look for in terms of understanding | 所以,这就是我们要寻找的 在理解方面 |
| 710 | where Nvidia stands with respect to competition, | 恩维迪亚在竞争问题上的立场, |
| 711 | 特别是来自DeepSeq. | |
| 712 | In general, we would ask, can Nvidia stay on the leading edge? | 总的来说,我们要问的是,恩维迪亚能否保持领先地位? |
| 713 | The very best chips in the world? | 世界上最好的薯片吗? |
| 714 | It seems like maybe they can, or for the near term, at least. | 看来他们至少可以,或在短期内。 |
| 715 | But one fact, going back to the tariff situation, | 但有一个事实 回到关税状况 |
| 716 | the US is prohibiting Nvidia from selling certain chips to China. | 美国禁止Nvidia向中国出售某些芯片。 |
| 717 | It can't sell the H20, the H100s. | 它不能卖H20型,H100型. |
| 718 | They claim, Jensen, the CEO, claims that they still have | 他们声称,Jensen,CEO, 声称他们仍然有 |
| 719 | plenty of demand from China. | 来自中国的大量需求 |
| 720 | But we'll see if that plays out in their financial reports. | 但是我们会看看他们的财务报告中 是否也这样 |
| 721 | Let's turn to the next one, just talk through a little bit of Tesla. | 让我们转到下一个, 只是通过一点点的特斯拉。 |
| 722 | And actually, I got a really interesting email | 其实,我有一个非常有趣的电子邮件 |
| 723 | from one of our former students, Alex Eve. | 我们以前的一个学生 Alex Eve |
| 724 | And maybe, Jakub, you could allow Alex to talk about | 也许,雅各,你可以让亚历克斯谈谈 |
| 725 | what he learned in his recent trip to China | 他最近访华时学到的 |
| 726 | as a Yale SOM student focusing on EVs. | 作为耶鲁SOM的学生 专注于EVs。 |
| 727 | Alex, can we hear from you? | 亚历克斯,我们能听到你的消息吗? |
| 728 | Give me a second, I'll give the voice to Alex. | 等我一下,我会给亚历克斯的声音。 |
| 729 | As we're getting ready, of course, Tesla has | 当我们准备好了,当然,特斯拉已经 |
| 730 | manufacturing operations in the US, in Europe, | 在美国、欧洲、 |
| 731 | and in China, and Shanghai in particular. | 在中国,特别是在上海。 |
| 732 | And China has been a huge market for Tesla. | 而中国一直是特斯拉的巨大市场. |
| 733 | But Alex? | 但亚历克斯? |
| 734 | Hello, everybody. | 哈罗,大家好。 |
| 735 | Sorry, I was just on mute there. | 对不起,我只是哑巴在那里。 |
| 736 | Hi, everybody. | 大家好,你们好 |
| 737 | So yeah, my name is Alex. | 所以,是的,我的名字是亚历克斯。 |
| 738 | I'm a second year student at SOM. | 我是SOM的二年级学生. |
| 739 | I was recently in China as part of our international experience | 最近作为国际经验的一部分,我去了中国 |
| 740 | visiting Shanghai and Beijing. | 先后访问上海和北京. |
| 741 | I actually stopped at the Yale Center at Beijing, | 其实我停在北京耶鲁中心 |
| 742 | so that was a great experience. | 所以这是一个伟大的经验。 |
| 743 | So thanks for hosting. | 谢谢你的接待 |
| 744 | Yeah, so I wanted to speak about a few observations | 是啊,我想谈谈一些观察 |
| 745 | 从我们访问VW SAIC, | |
| 746 | which is a joint venture between VW | 这是VW的合资企业 |
| 747 | and the Shanghai Automotive Corporation, | 和上海汽车公司, |
| 748 | and then showroom visits at NIO and Xiaomi, | 然后去NIO和小美的展示室 |
| 749 | both of which are kind of native EV makers. | 两者都是本地的EV制造者 |
| 750 | Xiaomi is actually a consumer electronics company | 小美其实是一家电子消费品公司 |
| 751 | that makes cars now. | 汽车现在。 |
| 752 | So I just wanted to highlight three themes | 所以我只想强调三个主题 |
| 753 | that kind of emerged from those visits. | 这些访问中出现了类似的情况。 |
| 754 | The first is just that car companies | 第一个是汽车公司 |
| 755 | are now phone companies, | 现在电话公司, |
| 756 | and phone companies are car companies. | 电话公司是汽车公司 |
| 757 | The second is that domestic EV competition | 第二场是国内EV比赛 |
| 758 | within China is just super, super intense, | 在中国是超级,超级激烈的, |
| 759 | and I'll get into that in a second. | 我一会儿就进去 |
| 760 | And then just the vast amount of automation | 然后只是大量的自动化 |
| 761 | of manufacturing within the EV landscape. | 在EV范围内的制造业。 |
| 762 | So on the car companies or phone companies thing, | 汽车公司或电话公司的事 |
| 763 | this is something you might have heard | 这是你可能听到的 |
| 764 | about a little bit ago. | 约前一点点。 |
| 765 | Apple was going to apparently enter the EV market. | 苹果显然要进入EV市场. |
| 766 | Well, Xiaomi, which is sort of the Apple of China, | 小美,中国的苹果 |
| 767 | has gone ahead and done it. | 已经做到了。 |
| 768 | They have an S7 model. | 他们有一个S7型号。 |
| 769 | They're now producing several hundred units | 他们现在生产了几百辆 |
| 770 | of that per year, | 其中每年1 000人, |
| 771 | and they're basically leveraging expertise in batteries | 他们基本上利用了电池的专业知识 |
| 772 | and in kind of user experience, | 以用户体验的方式 |
| 773 | and trying to kind of leverage those to sell cars. | 并试图利用这些 出售汽车。 |
| 774 | Interestingly, NIO, this was that I knew. | 有趣的是,NIO,这是我知道的。 |
| 775 | What I didn't know is that NIO, which is a car company, | 我不知道的是,NIO, 这是一个汽车公司, |
| 776 | they're a premium EV manufacturer, | 他们是一个昂贵的EV制造商, |
| 777 | actually builds a smartphone. | 实际建立智能手机. |
| 778 | And so they were basically fed up with building user experiences | 所以他们基本上厌倦了建立用户体验 |
| 779 | for all of the different operating systems within China. | 中国所有不同的操作系统。 |
| 780 | There are many like Android-based operating systems. | 有许多类似基于Android的操作系统. |
| 781 | And so they said, hey, | 于是他们说,嘿, |
| 782 | we're just going to build our own phone | 我们只是要自己造手机 |
| 783 | because we're tired of making updates. | 因为我们厌倦了更新 |
| 784 | It's not a great user experience. | 这不是一个伟大的用户体验。 |
| 785 | So they're producing many of these. | 所以他们生产了很多这些。 |
| 786 | NIO, you may be aware of the stock. | NIO,你也许知道股票。 |
| 787 | It's not performing super well. | 表现不好 |
| 788 | I think they have a history of taking on ambitious, | 我想他们有野心的历史 |
| 789 | but potentially not super financially sensible decisions. | 但不是在财政上明智的决定 |
| 790 | So that was interesting. | 所以这很有趣。 |
| 791 | On the intensity of competition point, | 关于竞争点的强度, |
| 792 | this was really surprising to me. | 这让我很惊讶 |
| 793 | There are more than 100 domestic EV makers within China, | 中国国内有100多家EV制造商, |
| 794 | many of which are bankrolled by local and regional governments. | 其中许多由地方和区域政府出资。 |
| 795 | And so each of these states has an interest | 因此,每个州都有利益 |
| 796 | in building manufacturing capacity | 在建设制造业能力方面 |
| 797 | and having their own companies | 拥有自己的公司 |
| 798 | and are bankrolling companies that may not ultimately be viable, | 是那些无法生存的公司, |
| 799 | but are nevertheless potentially zombie companies. | 但却是潜在的僵尸公司 |
| 800 | They're still moving. | 他们还在动 |
| 801 | But the winners are super, super strong. | 但是获胜者是超级,超级强壮的. |
| 802 | That much is clear. | 这一点很清楚。 |
| 803 | And so BYD and others are likely to be incredibly dominant | 所以BYD和其他人 很可能是惊人的主导 |
| 804 | 在EVs前进。 | |
| 805 | One other note on manufacturing | 关于制造业的另一份说明 |
| 806 | is that product development cycles were much, much shorter in China. | 中国的产品开发周期要短得多。 |
| 807 | So historically in the US, | 所以在美国历史上, |
| 808 | building a car is like a three to five-year process. | 造车就像一个三到五年的过程。 |
| 809 | In China, it's 12 to 18 months, which is just astounding. | 在中国,只有12到18个月,这简直令人吃惊. |
| 810 | And so the VW folks were like, yeah, historically, | 因此,VW 人喜欢,是啊,历史上, |
| 811 | we would bring a Passat to China and rebrand it. | 我们会带一个Passat到中国 并重新命名它。 |
| 812 | Now VW China is showing VW Germany | 现在VW中国正在展示VW德国 |
| 813 | how to develop products more quickly. | 如何更快地开发产品。 |
| 814 | And then finally, on the automation point, | 最后,在自动化点, |
| 815 | we visited Cummins Diesel, | 我们参观了Cummins柴油机, |
| 816 | which is like a specialist engine manufacturer. | 这就像一个专业的发动机制造商。 |
| 817 | We toured their factory and we literally saw instances | 我们参观了他们的工厂 看到了一些实例 |
| 818 | where there had been people working on the floor | 当时有人在地板上工作 |
| 819 | performing a task just a couple of weeks prior | 几周前完成的任务 |
| 820 | and they had automated it. | 他们把车自动化了 |
| 821 | They showed us the machine. | 他们给我们看了机器 |
| 822 | They talked us through kind of the financials. | 他们通过金融手段说服我们 |
| 823 | And so that was really just a kind of astounding observation | 所以这真的是 一种惊人的观察 |
| 824 | and a reminder that no matter your opinion on tariffs, | 并提醒你,无论你对关税的看法如何, |
| 825 | increasing the cost of importing goods | 增加进口货物的成本 |
| 826 | is not necessarily going to bring jobs back | 不一定能带回工作 |
| 827 | if more and more factories are automated. | 如果越来越多的工厂是自动化的。 |
| 828 | And so we saw that firsthand in China. | 因此,我们亲眼看到在中国。 |
| 829 | So those were kind of three observations | 所以这些是三种观察 |
| 830 | I had visiting these pretty remarkable companies in China. | 我参观了中国的这些非常出色的公司。 |
| 831 | Nothing like on the ground, fresh eyes. | 没有什么比地面上,新鲜的眼睛。 |
| 832 | Thank you so much, Alex. | 非常感谢,亚历克斯。 |
| 833 | So underscore the point, broadening of competition. | 所以强调这一点,扩大竞争。 |
| 834 | Now it's EVs and phone manufacturers competing. | 现在EVs和电话制造商正在竞争. |
| 835 | The dimensions of competition are many, | 竞争涉及许多方面, |
| 836 | but I think Alex pointed out this shorter product cycle | 但我认为Alex指出了这个较短的产品周期 |
| 837 | for new models is a really important thing. | 对于新模型来说,这是非常重要的。 |
| 838 | And BYD has really emerged as a major competitor | BYD也真正成为了主要的竞争者 |
| 839 | and the data recently show that they have overtaken Tesla | 最近的数据显示 他们已经超过了特斯拉 |
| 840 | in many, many ways. | 在许多方面 |
| 841 | So big, big changes with Tesla. | 特斯拉的改变太大了 |
| 842 | The other things that I think are going on with Tesla, | 我认为其他的事情 与特斯拉, |
| 843 | and I'll turn it over to you, Logan, for what you think, | 我会把它交给你,洛根,你的想法, |
| 844 | are Musk's position in working with the Trump administration | 是穆斯克与川普政府合作的立场 |
| 845 | that has raised questions about his attention span | 这引起了关于他注意力范围的问题 |
| 846 | and where his attentions lie. | 和他所关注的地方。 |
| 847 | That was addressed a couple of days ago on their earnings call. | 几天前在他们的收入呼吁中谈到这个问题。 |
| 848 | But it creates political risk for Tesla. | 但这给特斯拉带来了政治风险. |
| 849 | And we see stress in their financials. | 我们看到他们的财务压力。 |
| 850 | Their gross margins in EVs have been declining. | 她们在EV的毛利润一直在下降。 |
| 851 | In the last financial report, as I said just a couple days ago, | 在上次财务报告中,正如我几天前所说, |
| 852 | had their gross margins on EVs going down to a little bit over 11%. | 他们的EV总利润 略微下降到11%以上。 |
| 853 | It's been a big drop. | 这已经是一个很大的下降。 |
| 854 | So I personally think, and I'll turn it over to you, Logan, | 所以我个人认为, 我会把它交给你,洛根, |
| 855 | that in the case of Tesla, it's actually sort of an example | 就特斯拉来说,这其实是一个例子 |
| 856 | of what some people remember as the 80-20 rule. | 有人记得80 -20规则 |
| 857 | 80% of Tesla's revenues come from EVs. | 特斯拉80%的收入来自EVs. |
| 858 | But I think the valuation of Tesla going forward | 但我认为Tesla的估价会继续下去 |
| 859 | is going to come from the other 20%, | 将来自其他20%, |
| 860 | where it's really positioning itself | 在它真正定位的地方 |
| 861 | to do things outside of, quote, traditional EVs. | 在传统的EVs之外做一些事情,引用。 |
| 862 | I think you can take down this slide, Jakob. | 我想你可以拿下这个幻灯片,雅各布。 |
| 863 | What, Logan, what else would you add with respect to Tesla? | 什么,洛根,你还要补充什么 关于特斯拉? |
| 864 | With respect to Tesla, historically I would add | 关于特斯拉,从历史上讲,我要补充一点: |
| 865 | that the valuation has been more along the lines | 估值更符合 |
| 866 | of a software multiple in terms of, | 软件的多重, |
| 867 | it commands a premium over other OEMs in the automotive space | 它比汽车空间中的其他 OEM 高价 |
| 868 | that tend to trade at a lower valuation. | 交易额往往较低。 |
| 869 | And does it command that loft evaluation | 它是否指挥了阁楼评估 |
| 870 | if you look at what Ted mentioned | 如果你看看泰德说的 |
| 871 | in the margin deterioration? | 在边缘恶化? |
| 872 | You look at the subsidy cliffs | 你看看补贴悬崖 |
| 873 | with not being able to get the tax breaks that you would. | 无法得到你可能得到的减税。 |
| 874 | You now have generations of Tesla owners | 你们现在有几代特斯拉的主人 |
| 875 | that on their second or third car, | 在他们的第二或第三辆车, |
| 876 | maybe they're switching to another OEM | 也许他们换了另一个OEM |
| 877 | that has performed in some other metric. | 已经用其他的衡量标准 |
| 878 | And so you've seen a dilutive effect on Tesla's valuation | 所以,你看到了 稀释效应 Tesla的估价 |
| 879 | and also the narrative of Tesla. | 还有特斯拉的叙述 |
| 880 | Regardless of Elon's political position, | 不管伊隆的政治立场如何 |
| 881 | he's also got a lot of other companies to run. | 他还有很多其他公司要经营 |
| 882 | 他有他的SpaceX公司, | |
| 883 | and then he's got his other AI business. | 然后他有他的其他AI业务。 |
| 884 | He's got Twitter that he bought | 他有他买的推特 |
| 885 | that now was bought by his AI company. | 现在被他的人工智能公司收购了 |
| 886 | And so you have a lot of competing interests | 所以你有很多相互竞争的利益 |
| 887 | for this marquee individual. | 给这个马奎个人 |
| 888 | And so I don't think all is well with Tesla. | 所以我觉得Tesla不好 |
| 889 | I think that the name will continue to struggle. | 我认为这个名字会继续挣扎. |
| 890 | What Ted didn't mention, | 泰德没提到的事 |
| 891 | but some of our alumni will fondly remember | 但我们的一些校友会记得 |
| 892 | is that Tesla used to be one of these stories | 特斯拉曾经是其中之一 |
| 893 | in our class several years ago | 几年前的班级 |
| 894 | and its market cap eclipsed, | 和它的市场封顶, |
| 895 | almost all of the leading OEMs, Ted, at one point. | 几乎所有领先的OEMs,泰德,在一个点上. |
| 896 | And so are we seeing the narrative shift yet again, Ted? | 我们是不是又看到叙事转变了 Ted? |
| 897 | I'll leave it there. | 我会留在那里。 |
| 898 | Well, just doing a time check, Logan and Jacob. | 检查一下时间 罗根和雅各布 |
| 899 | I think we should try to wrap up in seven minutes | 我想我们7分钟后结束吧 |
| 900 | and then see if there are questions. | 然后看看有没有问题 |
| 901 | And I would invite people, | 我会邀请人们, |
| 902 | and we thank you for joining, | 我们感谢你加入, |
| 903 | to put in questions in the chat. | 在聊天时提问 |
| 904 | And Jacob will monitor that | 雅各布会监视 |
| 905 | and maybe pose a couple of questions in seven minutes. | 也许7分钟后会提出几个问题 |
| 906 | But let me just touch on a few of the other individual points | 但让我谈谈其他几点 |
| 907 | with respect to companies like Apple, et cetera. | 关于苹果等公司,等等。 |
| 908 | Big AI bet, | 大AI赌注, |
| 909 | I would say Apple is maybe tops | 我会说苹果也许是最好的 |
| 910 | in terms of its vulnerability to tariffs, | 在易受关税影响方面, |
| 911 | complicated supply chain, | 复杂的供应链, |
| 912 | China is a huge important market for Apple, of course. | 当然,中国是苹果公司的重要市场。 |
| 913 | CEO travel sometimes tell you what you need to know. | 首席执行官有时会告诉你你需要知道的 |
| 914 | How many times has Tim Cook visited China? | 蒂姆·库克多少次访问中国?. |
| 915 | Well, he visited once in March 2023, | 他2023年3月来过一次 |
| 916 | once in March 2024, | 在2024年3月的一次, |
| 917 | once in October 2024, | 在2024年10月的一次, |
| 918 | and twice in November 2024. | 以及2024年11月的两次. |
| 919 | So it tells you where he sees the risks. | 它告诉你他在哪里看到风险。 |
| 920 | On Amazon, I think we've talked about that. | 关于亚马逊 我想我们已经谈过了 |
| 921 | Tariffs, complicated analysis, | 关税,复杂的分析, |
| 922 | generally negative for Amazon. | 对亚马逊来说是负面的 |
| 923 | There's a question, | 有个问题 |
| 924 | well, would it constrain some of their competitors | 那么,它会限制 他们的一些竞争者 |
| 925 | like Xi'an and Taimu? | 像西安和太武一样? |
| 926 | And that's not a big chunk of US e-commerce, | 这不是美国电子商务的一大部分, |
| 927 | but I think that could be something to watch | 但我认为这可能是 东西看 |
| 928 | if the tariffs are implemented | 如果执行关税 |
| 929 | because those two companies, Xi'an and Taimu, are disruptive. | 因为这两个公司,西安公司和太武公司,都是破坏性的. |
| 930 | So pay attention to that dynamic. | 所以要注意这种动态。 |
| 931 | Microsoft, just really an amazing franchise | 微软,真是太棒了 |
| 932 | when it comes to their office software | 当涉及到他们的办公室软件时 |
| 933 | and the subscription model, can they keep it going? | 和订阅模式,他们能继续吗? |
| 934 | Can they compete against AI applications? | 他们能与AI申请竞争吗? |
| 935 | Alphabet, one of the outside forces | 字母,外部队之一 |
| 936 | that we think affects high-tech companies | 我们认为影响高科技公司 |
| 937 | is competition policy and antitrust. | 竞争政策和反托拉斯。 |
| 938 | There are two major US cases against. | 美国有两宗重大诉讼 |
| 939 | Alphabet 1 involved search, | 字母1涉及搜索, |
| 940 | they've been found liable. | 他们已经被认定有责任。 |
| 941 | Then the question is, what remedies will the US government, | 问题是,美国政府会采取什么补救措施? |
| 942 | the US Department of Justice, | 美国司法部, |
| 943 | try to get from the court? | 试图从法院得到? |
| 944 | Will they try to break up Alphabet? | 他们会试图打破字母表吗? |
| 945 | Having worked a long time ago and followed | 工作了很久,跟随 |
| 946 | what the DOJ, US Department of Justice does, | 美国司法部 |
| 947 | I think breaking up is unlikely. | 我觉得分手不太可能 |
| 948 | But changes in business model could be significant | 但是,业务模式的变化可能是重大的 |
| 949 | out of that case. | 从那个案子里 |
| 950 | And then there's a second case | 还有第二个案子 |
| 951 | around what's sometimes called the ad stack. | 在广告堆周围 |
| 952 | How do you organize ads and get them placed? | 如何组织广告并把它们放置? |
| 953 | And that's underway. | 这件事正在进行中。 |
| 954 | So we'll see if they also get found liable | 我们看看他们是否也有责任 |
| 955 | for practices with respect to the ad stack. | 关于广告堆栈的做法。 |
| 956 | MATA also faces competition policy risk. | MATA还面临竞争政策风险。 |
| 957 | Will the other US antitrust agency, | 另一个美国反托拉斯机构, |
| 958 | the Federal Trade Commission, | 联邦贸易委员会, |
| 959 | undo the acquisitions from way back | 取消之前的收购 |
| 960 | during the Obama administration | 奥巴马政府执政期间 |
| 961 | 当时的Facebook,现在的MATA, | |
| 962 | 收购了WhatsApp和Instagram吗? | |
| 963 | And they have antitrust exposure outside of the US. | 他们在美国以外也有反托拉斯的暴露 |
| 964 | And they have greater competition | 他们有更大的竞争 |
| 965 | 从TikTok和Snapchat。 | |
| 966 | And I think this is my knock on, | 我觉得这是我的敲门 |
| 967 | my negative comment on MATA. | 我对MATA的负面评价 |
| 968 | I'd say they have somewhat immature governance | 我觉得他们治理不成熟 |
| 969 | and leadership. | 和领导。 |
| 970 | Mark Zuckerberg in some ways | 马克·扎克伯格在某些方面 |
| 971 | is the audience for all decisions. | 是所有决定的听众。 |
| 972 | And he doesn't make all decisions | 他不做所有的决定 |
| 973 | in a way that I think makes sense. | 以某种我认为合理的方式。 |
| 974 | 例子就是Metaverse大投资, | |
| 975 | which we don't hear much about anymore. | 我们不再听到很多关于它的事 |
| 976 | So that's a rundown. | 所以,这是一个倒闭。 |
| 977 | Let's try to sum up and talk about insights and takeaways. | 试作总结,谈其见解与外卖. |
| 978 | Logan, you wanna start with what are you thinking about? | 罗根,你想从你在想什么开始? |
| 979 | What are the insights that you'd wanna share | 你想分享的见解是什么? |
| 980 | with this audience? | 和这些观众? |
| 981 | Probably two. | 可能有两个 |
| 982 | So going back to the beginning of the presentation, | 所以回到演讲开始的时候 |
| 983 | we've seen historic valuation expansion | 我们已经看到历史价值扩张 |
| 984 | and wealth concentration in these names. | 财富集中在这些名字。 |
| 985 | I've never seen anything like it. | 亦不曾见. |
| 986 | Will we see it again? | 我们能再看一次吗? |
| 987 | Probably at some point, | 也许在某些时候 |
| 988 | but it has been quite a wild ride, | 但它是一个相当疯狂的旅程, |
| 989 | especially with Nvidia and fortunes have been made. | 特别是和Nvidia一起 财富已经实现 |
| 990 | Another thing, another theme | 还有一件事,另一个主题 |
| 991 | that I would continue to focus on, | 我将继续专注于, |
| 992 | and I understand there's a little bit | 我知道有一点 |
| 993 | of headline fatigue on this, | 头条疲劳在这个, |
| 994 | is what's happening with the AI race. | 人工智能赛是怎样的 |
| 995 | There's a lot of kind of click-baity headlines, | 有很多类型的点击 -baity头条, |
| 996 | but fundamentally these companies continue | 但基本上这些公司继续 |
| 997 | to spend tremendous amounts of money, | 花费巨资 |
| 998 | capital expenditure. | 资本支出。 |
| 999 | They're talking about 100 gigawatt data centers. | 他们说的是100千兆瓦的数据中心。 |
| 1000 | I think a nuclear power plant is like 10 | 我认为一个核电站就像10 |
| 1001 | or something like that. | 或者类似的东西。 |
| 1002 | So you have a huge energy consumption questions. | 所以你有一个巨大的能源消耗问题。 |
| 1003 | You have global implications on anything | 你对任何事都有全球影响 |
| 1004 | from military technologies to search engines to e-comm. | 从军事技术到搜索引擎到电子通讯 |
| 1005 | So all of these themes are wrapped up in the AI discussion | 因此,所有这些主题都被包在AI的讨论之中. |
| 1006 | and what's happening in the private markets | 在私人市场发生的事情 |
| 1007 | with the valuations, who's getting funded, | 与估值, 谁得到资金, |
| 1008 | what they're using the money for, | 他们用钱干什么? |
| 1009 | merge and acquisition. | 合并和收购。 |
| 1010 | So I would still follow that theme, Ted, | 所以我还是会关注这个主题 Ted |
| 1011 | and then back to you for the others. | 然后回到你身边,为其他人。 |
| 1012 | Well, in terms of what we've covered, | 就我们所覆盖的事物而言 |
| 1013 | the term magnificent seven makes a lot more sense to me now, | 伟大的七岁这个词对我来说更有意义 |
| 1014 | having reviewed the data. | 审查了数据。 |
| 1015 | These seven companies were truly magnificent | 这七家公司真是了不起 |
| 1016 | in ways that we have not seen before. | 以我们从未见过的方式。 |
| 1017 | I think Logan just mentioned the, pay attention to AI. | 我想Logan刚才提到过 注意AI |
| 1018 | They're not the only ones from the United States | 不是只有他们从美国来的 |
| 1019 | competing on the AI front. | 在AI前线竞争. |
| 1020 | There are others. | 还有别者. |
| 1021 | Plus, of course, we have firms in China competing in AI. | 而且,当然,我们中国的公司 竞争AI。 |
| 1022 | And how many firms, here's a question, | 有多少公司,有一个问题, |
| 1023 | how many firms five years from now | 5年后有多少家公司 |
| 1024 | will we say are leading edge AI competitors? | 我们是不是说领先的AI竞争者? |
| 1025 | In my experience, | 根据我的经验, |
| 1026 | and if you look at other high-tech industries, | 如果你看看其他高科技产业 |
| 1027 | you don't have 10 on the leading edge | 前面没有10个 |
| 1028 | and you don't have seven. | 而你没有七个。 |
| 1029 | So which of these Mag-7 companies plus others | 哪个Mag -7公司还有其他公司 |
| 1030 | will really get to the leading edge | 将会真正到达领先的边缘 |
| 1031 | and be able to stay there? | 并能够呆在那里? |
| 1032 | That's, these are big bets. | 这是大赌注 |
| 1033 | So I would definitely look at that going forward. | 所以,我一定会看 前进。 |
| 1034 | As we mentioned, each of the Mag-7 companies, | 正如我们提到的,马格 -7公司, |
| 1035 | there are specific factors like antitrust | 有一些具体因素 比如反托拉斯 |
| 1036 | that we should pay attention to and tariffs. | 我们应注意关税。 |
| 1037 | The other thing I would say is, for me, | 我想说的是,对我来说, |
| 1038 | the underlying economics is important. | 基础经济学很重要。 |
| 1039 | Economies of scale, economies of scope, | 规模经济、范围经济、 |
| 1040 | network effects, switching effects. | 网络效应,切换效应. |
| 1041 | And one of the things we wanna talk about | 我们想谈的一件事 |
| 1042 | in our next webinar is global EV market. | 我们下一个网络市场是全球EV市场 |
| 1043 | And one of the things, even in EVs, | 还有一件事,即使在EVs, |
| 1044 | when you go to a high-tech model for producing vehicles, | 当你进入一个生产车辆的高科技模式, |
| 1045 | the marginal costs are lower | 边际成本较低 |
| 1046 | than the traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. | 比传统的内燃机车。 |
| 1047 | So aspects of high-tech industries, low marginal costs, | 因此,高科技产业的各个方面, 低边际成本, |
| 1048 | can engender, lead to really keen competition. | 会导致激烈的竞争 |
| 1049 | Prices can come down. | 价格可以下降。 |
| 1050 | A firm like Tesla could lose a lot of business | 像特斯拉这样的公司 可能会失去很多生意 |
| 1051 | and that depresses their margins, their gross margins. | 从而压抑了他们的边际,总边际。 |
| 1052 | So I think that those are some of the things | 所以我认为这些是一些东西 |
| 1053 | that I've gained from talking to Logan | 我和洛根谈话后得到好处 |
| 1054 | and putting this seminar together. | 并组织这次研讨会。 |
| 1055 | I'll see you next time. | 下次见 |
| 1056 | Thank you for joining us. | 谢谢你加入我们。 |
| 1057 | We'll see you next time. | 下次见 |
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