普林斯顿-耶鲁“相约周末”品读汇第十场：哈佛谈判专家“公开课

普林斯顿-耶鲁“相约周末”品读汇第十场：哈佛谈判专家“公开课”：人人都需要的沟通与博弈智慧

发布于 2025-07-31 · 时长 1:02:02

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:05	OK, we shall start the event for this evening.	好了,我们今晚开始吧
0:09	And hello, everyone, and welcome to the Princeton Yale Idea	大家好欢迎来到普林斯顿耶鲁大学
0:14	Series.	系列。
0:15	So this event has been launched last year.	因此,这个活动是去年发起的。
0:18	And actually, this is our 10th event along the series.	实际上,这是我们系列的第10个活动。
0:23	I'm Lin Shi Li, the managing director of Princeton University	我是林世立,普林斯顿大学总经理
0:26	China Office.	中国办事处.
0:28	And thanks to all the online and offline audience	感谢所有在线和线下观众
0:31	for joining our event.	参加我们的活动。
0:33	And this initiative featuring the world-leading scholar	以世界领先学者为主角的倡议

展开字幕全文（1145 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	OK, we shall start the event for this evening.	好了,我们今晚开始吧
2	And hello, everyone, and welcome to the Princeton Yale Idea	大家好欢迎来到普林斯顿耶鲁大学
3	Series.	系列。
4	So this event has been launched last year.	因此,这个活动是去年发起的。
5	And actually, this is our 10th event along the series.	实际上,这是我们系列的第10个活动。
6	I'm Lin Shi Li, the managing director of Princeton University	我是林世立,普林斯顿大学总经理
7	China Office.	中国办事处.
8	And thanks to all the online and offline audience	感谢所有在线和线下观众
9	for joining our event.	参加我们的活动。
10	And this initiative featuring the world-leading scholar	以世界领先学者为主角的倡议
11	and their most recent publication by Princeton,	以及普林斯顿最近发表的著作,
12	aiming to foster the global scholarly exchange between China	旨在促进中国之间的全球学术交流
13	and the West on the most cutting-edge topics.	西方最尖端的话题
14	And so on behalf of the Princeton University Press,	所以代表普林斯顿大学出版社
15	I want to give a very short introduction about our mission	我想简单介绍一下我们的任务
16	and vision in China.	和在中国的远见。
17	And PUP is the first and so far the only American University	而PUP是第一家,至今也是唯一的美国大学
18	Press opening an office in China dedicated	新闻在中国开设办事处
19	to the two-way exchanges.	到双向交流。
20	We hope to publish the very best scholar in China	我们希望出版中国最好的学者
21	and bring their perspectives to the attention	并提请人们注意他们的观点
22	of a global audience, especially in the West,	全球观众,特别是在西方,
23	and then bringing the English language works	然后带来英语作品
24	to the Chinese audience to foster global learning.	为中国观众培养全球学习能力.
25	And so we're very honored to have the legendary professor,	因此,我们非常荣幸有传奇教授,
26	Max Baseman, to feature his recent PUP books,	马克斯·贝斯曼, 为他最近的PUP书籍,
27	Negotiation, The Game Has Changed.	谈判,游戏已经改变。
28	I just realized this is a Harvard professor published	我刚意识到这是哈佛大学的教授出版的
29	by Princeton and with an event in Yale Center.	普林斯顿和耶鲁中心的一个活动。
30	It's not very easy to get three of them in the same room.	亦不甚易得三门同室.
31	So I think this is a very delightful	所以,我觉得这是一个非常好的
32	and very privileged evening.	和非常荣幸的夜晚。
33	So Professor Baseman is a pioneer in the field	Baseman教授是该领域的先驱
34	of negotiation at the J.C.E.	在国际法院进行谈判。
35	Stuart Strout,	斯图尔特·斯特劳特
36	Professor of Business Administration	工商管理教授
37	and Harvard Business School.	和哈佛商学院。
38	His many books, including Negotiation Genius,	他的很多著作,包括谈判天才,
39	Negotiating Rationally, Complicity,	合理谈判,共犯,
40	How We Enable the Unethical and How to Stop,	我们如何使不道德者得以生存,如何阻止,
41	and Blindspots, Why We Fail to Do What's Right	和盲点,为什么我们失败做正确的事情
42	and What to Do About It.	和怎样做它。
43	So I want to give a very short introduction about this	所以我想简单介绍一下
44	from this book, Negotiation, The Game Has Changed.	从这本书,《谈判》,《游戏已经改变》。
45	From bargaining in the street markets	从街头市场讨价还价
46	to complex business transactions	复杂商业交易
47	and diplomatic negotiations between nations,	和国家间外交谈判,
48	negotiations are everywhere	谈判到处都是
49	and have a profound impact on our lives,	对我们的生活有深远影响,
50	work and the world most sophisticated operations.	工作和世界上最复杂的行动。
51	In today's world, full of uncertainty and major shocks,	在当今世界,充满不确定性和重大冲击,
52	relying solely on intuition and experience	完全依靠直觉和经验
53	is far from enough to reach effective agreements.	远远不足以达成有效的协议。
54	Professor Baseman is a leading expert in behavioral economics	Baseman教授是行为经济学专家
55	and negotiation psychology at Harvard University	哈佛大学谈判心理学
56	and is also a very famous author who has worked	也是一位很有名的作家曾经为他工作过
57	with the Princeton University Press for many years.	与普林斯顿大学出版社合作多年.
58	And his newly published books,	和他的新出版的书,
59	which she will offer the key insight this evening.	她今晚会提供关键见解
60	In the book, he presents	在书中,他呈现
61	the state of art negotiation course.	最高水平的谈判课程。
62	He elaborates on the core concepts	他阐述了核心概念
63	and systematic frameworks of the universal negotiation,	和系统的全球谈判框架,
64	explaining how to tailor those principles	解释如何调整这些原则
65	to specific situations and discuss how to understand	如何理解
66	and respond to the irrational and irresponsible behaviors	对不合理和不负责任的行为作出反应
67	of negotiation counterparts.	谈判对应方。
68	So this book not only help readers understand	所以这本书不仅帮助读者理解
69	the most important games happening in today's world	当今世界上最重要的游戏
70	in a very accessible way,	在非常无障碍的方式,
71	but also serve as a timely business reference books.	同时也是及时的商务参考书。
72	So enabling the readers to confidently achieve	所以让读者有信心地实现
73	the win-win situation through negotiation	通过谈判实现双赢
74	in any environment.	在任何环境。
75	Okay, so that's the end of the advertisements.	好了,广告结束了。
76	So I believe we will very much looking forward	所以,我相信,我们将非常期待
77	to learning more from the Professor Baseman today.	向Baseman教授学习更多东西
78	And I will very happily welcome Carol Rafty,	我将非常高兴地欢迎卡罗尔·拉夫蒂,
79	the managing director of the Yale Center in Beijing	北京耶鲁中心总经理
80	to host today's event,	以主持今天的活动,
81	also as our very distinguished discussant.	也是我们尊敬的讨论者。
82	Carol, just give the floor to you.	卡罗尔请您发言
83	Thank you.	谢谢
84	Thank you very much, Lingxi.	谢灵芝.
85	And again, I want to thank Professor Max Baseman,	我要再次感谢马克斯·贝斯曼教授
86	our speaker today for waking up so early in his morning	我们今天的演讲人这么早醒来
87	to join us for this event.	与我们一起参加这次活动。
88	I would also especially like to thank	我还要特别感谢
89	our Princeton University Press Beijing office team	我们的普林斯顿大学出版社北京办事处团队
90	and Yale Center Beijing teams	和耶鲁中心北京小组
91	for making this unlikely,	使这不可能,
92	but wonderful combination happen,	但美妙的组合发生,
93	Princeton, Yale, and Harvard.	普林斯顿,耶鲁,和哈佛大学.
94	I will be the discussant,	我会成为讨论者,
95	and I don't want to talk too long	我不想谈太久
96	before Professor Baseman starts his fascinating talk.	在Baseman教授开始他迷人的演讲之前
97	I do want to welcome those of you,	我确实想欢迎你们
98	especially those of you who are new to Yale Center Beijing.	尤其是你们中那些刚到北京耶鲁中心的人
99	We opened back in 2014	我们2014年开业的
100	as Yale University's only university-wide center	作为耶鲁大学唯一的全大学中心
101	outside of its U.S. campus representing its 14 schools.	代表美国14所学校
102	So we're, in effect, a mini embassy	所以我们实际上是个小大使馆
103	that Yale University has in China,	耶鲁大学在中国有,
104	and throughout the year we have interesting discussions	一年来我们进行了有趣的讨论
105	and talks and concerts such as these	演讲和音乐会
106	happening throughout the year,	全年发生,
107	and you're more than welcome	我非常欢迎你
108	to follow our social media accounts	跟踪我们的社交媒体账户
109	for further details on activities such as these.	关于这些活动的进一步详情。
110	I very much look forward to this discussion	我非常期待这次讨论
111	because I've read this book cover to cover,	因为我读过这本书的封面
112	and when I was at Stanford Law School,	当我在斯坦福法学院的时候
113	unfortunately I wasn't able	可惜我无法
114	to go to Harvard Business School,	进入哈佛商学院,
115	but my favorite class at Stanford Law School	但我最喜欢的班在斯坦福法学院
116	was the negotiation workshop there,	在那里的谈判研讨会,
117	and I've heard of Professor Baseman's work from there,	我听说过Baseman教授的工作
118	as well as some of the concepts	以及一些概念
119	that he will be introducing in this book.	他将在这部经典中加以介绍。
120	So without further ado,	所以不用再多说了
121	let's welcome Professor Max Baseman.	让我们欢迎马克斯·贝斯曼教授
122	Thank you.	谢谢
123	Thank you very much.	谢谢
124	Thank you for the kind introduction.	谢谢你的介绍
125	I'm delighted to be at this Yale Princeton	我很高兴能来耶鲁普林斯顿
126	and perhaps Harvard event,	也许还有哈佛大学的活动,
127	and I think it's just great	我觉得这很好
128	what Yale and Princeton are doing in China.	耶鲁和普林斯顿正在中国做什么
129	So congratulations to you on all you've accomplished.	恭喜你所做的一切
130	So this is obviously an unusual time	所以,这显然是一个不寻常的时间
131	for a Harvard professor	哈佛大学教授
132	to be talking about negotiation to a Chinese audience.	和中国观众讨论谈判
133	There's lots going on in the world.	世间众生.
134	There's lots going on	有很多事情发生
135	in terms of the current US administration's negotiations	美国现任政府的谈判
136	with China.	与中国。
137	There's lots of strange things going on,	有很多奇怪的事情发生,
138	including sort of during today	包括今天的某种时间
139	with Trump's announcements	在特朗普的公告中
140	about his negotiations with Harvard University.	关于他和哈佛大学的谈判
141	So there's a tremendous amount going on,	因此,有巨大的数量正在发生,
142	and yet I was invited here,	但我却被邀请来这里
143	I think, to primarily talk about my book,	我想,主要谈谈我的书,
144	not about world politics.	不是关于世界政治
145	So my plan for the day is to give,	所以我今天的计划是...
146	for the evening, I should say,	晚上,我应该说,
147	to give a talk based on my book,	根据我的书来谈谈
148	somewhat similar to other book talks that I've given.	和我给的其他书谈有些相似
149	At the same time,	同时,
150	I don't mean to censor any questions	我不是要检查任何问题
151	from the audience that might wanna move	从观众谁可能想移动
152	to contemporary issues as well.	当代问题也是如此。
153	So I'm deeply disturbed	所以我深感不安
154	about some of the very unfortunate negotiations	关于一些非常不幸的谈判
155	that are currently going on,	正在继续,
156	and I don't mean to hide from those issues	我不想躲过这些问题
157	in any way whatsoever.	无论如何。
158	But I think people came here for a talk on my book,	但我想人们来到这里在我的书上谈话,
159	and that's what I'm gonna start with.	这就是我要开始。
160	And again, to open up to your questions	再说一遍,打开你的问题
161	during the Q&A period as you see kind of most appropriate.	在您认为最合适的时间段
162	The kind introduction mentioned	所提到的那种介绍
163	that this is really the third book	这真的是第三本书
164	that I've written on negotiations.	我已经写了谈判。
165	And I've kind of been teaching negotiations	我教谈判
166	most of my adult life.	大部分的成年生活。
167	I first started teaching negotiations in 1984	1984年我第一次开始教学谈判
168	when I was on the faculty at MIT.	当我在麻省理工学院任教时
169	Soon thereafter, I moved to the Kellogg School	不久,我搬到凯洛格学校
170	at Northwestern University,	在西北大学
171	where I was from 1985 to 1998.	从1985年到1998年
172	And I co-founded an executive program	我共同创立了一个执行计划
173	with Professor Jean Brett on negotiation strategies there,	与让·布雷特教授谈了那里的谈判战略,
174	and then moved to Harvard.	后移居哈佛大学.
175	And by 2001, started an executive program	到了2001年,开始了一个执行方案
176	called Changing the Game,	名为更改游戏,
177	which we've now offered over 60 times	我们现在已经提供了60多次
178	to almost 5,000 students.	近5000名学生。
179	And I've taught an awful lot of MBA students as well.	我也教了很多MBA的学生
180	Along the way, as was mentioned,	如前所述,
181	I wrote a couple of other books,	我写了几本其他的书
182	Negotiating Rationally, which was published in 1992	谈判理由,1992年发表
183	with Professor Margaret Neal,	和玛格丽特·尼尔教授
184	and Negotiation Genius with Professor Deepak Malhotra	与迪帕克·马尔霍特拉教授谈判
185	in 2007.	于2007年举行。
186	So this is really my third effort	这真是我的第三次努力
187	on the topic of negotiation.	谈判议题。
188	And you'll notice that the subtitle,	你会注意到字幕
189	which is, I think, important to me,	这对我来说很重要
190	and the subtitle is The Game Has Changed.	字幕是"游戏变了"
191	And to put some context into that,	为了把一些背景纳入其中,
192	I've had many, many students	我有很多,很多学生
193	who have taken an executive course from me,	他们从我这里学了一个行政课程,
194	or perhaps an MBA course,	或者MBA课程,
195	and somewhere along the lines out here,	沿着这里的路线
196	some comment that starts with this was a fine course,	从这个开始的一些评论是一个很好的课程,
197	and then there's a but.	然后有一个但。
198	And the buts could vary.	和 buts 可能不同。
199	It doesn't account for cultural norms	它不考虑文化规范
200	in the country that I'm negotiating with.	在那个我与之谈判的国家
201	It doesn't deal with the Chinese.	不与华人打交道.
202	We used to hear more about the Japanese,	我们经常听到更多关于日本人的消息
203	but whatever country is improving	但无论哪个国家都在进步
204	in its negotiation power typically gets listed there.	它的谈判能力通常会在那里被列出
205	When I travel overseas,	我出国旅行时
206	I often hear how difficult it is	我经常听到这有多难
207	to negotiate with Americans.	与美国人谈判。
208	Sometimes we'll hear about the unique economic environment.	有时会听到独特的经济环境.
209	You're not dealing with the supply crisis	你不处理供应危机
210	that we're currently facing.	目前我们面对的。
211	How do you deal with irrational opponents,	你怎么对付不理智的对手?
212	which we will get to later on in this talk?	我们以后再谈这个?
213	Negotiating over Zoom is different	与Zoom谈判不同
214	than negotiating in person.	而不是当面谈判
215	How does it deal with negotiating with my husband or wife?	和我丈夫或妻子谈判是如何处理的?
216	And I saw my doctor yesterday for my annual physical,	我昨天看到我的医生因为我的年度身体,
217	and she wanted to know,	她还想知道,
218	how do I get my patients to take their medicines,	我如何让我的病人吃药,
219	which I do consider a negotiation?	我考虑的是谈判?
220	And how do I negotiate with somebody who shows up?	我该怎么和出现的人谈判?
221	But I know in fact that they don't have the power to agree.	但我知道事实上他们没有权力同意
222	So these are just a handful of the dozens of buts	所以这些只是十几件
223	that I've run into.	我遇见了
224	And all of these questions are legitimate.	所有这些问题都是合法的。
225	And quite honestly, I think that historically I've said,	老实说,我认为,历史上我说过,
226	but the course applies to your context.	但课程适用于你的背景。
227	And I would talk about how the core concepts,	我想谈谈核心概念
228	which we'll talk about in a couple of slides,	我们用几张幻灯片来谈
229	are relevant despite the unique circumstances.	尽管情况特殊,但仍具有相关性。
230	And I would talk to the person asking the question	我会和问问题的人谈谈
231	about their unique circumstances	关于他们的独特情况
232	and try to apply the core concepts.	并尝试应用核心概念。
233	But over recent years,	但近年来,
234	I've become convinced that we need to take	我深信我们需要采取
235	the context very seriously.	情节很严重
236	And more and more,	越来越
237	I think that the generic concepts	我认为一般概念
238	that we've been teaching in negotiation,	我们一直在谈判中教书
239	and you can see in Negotiation Nationally,	你可以看到,在国家谈判,
240	Negotiation Genius,	谈判天才,
241	still apply in the current environment	在当前环境中仍然适用
242	in whatever context we're facing.	不管我们面对什么环境
243	But I think that we need to take the context very seriously.	但我认为,我们需要非常认真地对待这一背景。
244	So this book attempts to provide structures	所以这本书试图提供结构
245	for thinking about how to take context seriously	思考如何认真看待背景
246	and also use more contemporary examples.	并使用更当代的例子。
247	You'll see some of those as we go through the talk.	你会看到一些当我们通过谈话。
248	But when I talk about the game has changed,	但当我谈论游戏的改变,
249	here are some of the things that we can think about	这里有一些东西我们可以思考
250	about how the game has changed.	关于游戏是如何改变的。
251	The 9-11 attacks in the US very much reshaped	美国的九一一袭击事件重塑了很多
252	our environment in a variety of dramatic ways.	我们的环境以各种戏剧性的方式。
253	The Great Recession from 2007 to 2009,	2007年至2009年大衰退.
254	reshaped who has bargaining power.	重塑了谁有讨价还价的能力。
255	In the US, we've become a much more bifurcated society.	在美国,我们已经成为一个更加两极分化的社会。
256	We have a president that has approval ratings	我们有一个总统有批准评级
257	well below 30%,	远远低于30%,
258	but yet still has very large amounts of power.	但仍然拥有巨大的权力。
259	But we have the majority of Americans	但我们有大多数美国人
260	who are not happy with most of what's going on	他们对大部分事情不满意
261	in the current economy.	在当前的经济中。
262	As I'm now looking at a picture of this audience	我现在看着观众的照片
263	and from my perspective, you're a young crowd	在我看来,你是一个年轻的人群
264	and you now are used to negotiating online,	现在你们习惯在网上谈判,
265	which people from my generation were caught by surprise	我这代人被惊吓到
266	that they needed to.	他们需要。
267	A lot of people in my generation	我这一代很多人
268	first started negotiating online when COVID hit	COVID命中时,首先在网上开始谈判
269	and in 2020, up until then,	在2020年,直到那时,
270	we thought of negotiation as a face-to-face interaction.	我们把谈判看作是面对面的互动。
271	This is not an item that I listed	这不是我列出的物品
272	specifically for this audience.	特别针对观众。
273	This is in my book talk	这是在我的书谈
274	when I'm talking to other audiences as well.	当我跟其他观众说话的时候
275	But the phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy	但中国经济的惊人增长
276	has reshaped negotiations	重塑了谈判
277	and certainly we see that in terms of what's going on	并且我们当然看到, 从发生了什么
278	in the contemporary scene.	在当代的场景。
279	We're negotiating with more and more people	我们和越来越多的人谈判
280	who are different than ourselves.	他们和我们不一样
281	So for a typical American,	对于一个典型的美国人来说,
282	the typical American 30 years ago was a white male	典型的美国30年前是白人男性
283	and was used to negotiating with white males.	并习惯与白人男性谈判。
284	More and more, we're negotiating with people	我们越来越和别人谈判
285	who are very different from ourselves.	他们和我们完全不同
286	And finally, COVID-19 I think reshaped	最后,COVID-19,我想已经重塑了
287	to our trading partners	对我们的贸易伙伴
288	where created a lot of different changes.	在那里创造了许多不同的变化。
289	So in many ways, the world has changed.	因此,在许多方面,世界已经发生了变化。
290	This doesn't mean that our old concepts are irrelevant.	这并不意味着我们的旧概念无关紧要.
291	And I'm gonna talk a little bit about	我要谈谈
292	what some of those old concepts are.	这些老概念是什么。
293	And this is gonna kind of be a very, very quick review	这会是一个非常,非常快速的审查
294	of material that you could find in my prior books	我之前的书里可以找到的材料
295	Negotiating Rationally and Negotiation Genius.	理性谈判和谈判天才。
296	So I wanna highlight,	所以我想强调,
297	I'm not running away from these ideas at all.	我根本不会逃避这些想法
298	I think that they are relevant.	我认为它们是相关的。
299	It's just that we need to adapt them	只是我们需要适应他们
300	given how the world has changed.	鉴于世界是如何改变的
301	So one of the most common concepts that people learn	所以人们最常用的概念之一
302	when they take a course on negotiation	当他们走上谈判之路时
303	是这个缩写BATNA。
304	Just quickly, right now I can see the audience.	快点,现在我可以看到观众。
305	Can you raise your hand	你能举手吗?
306	if you've ever heard the concept of BATNA before?	你以前听过BATNA这个概念吗?
307	Okay, so just a few.	好吧,就几个。
308	Okay, so thank you for that.	好吧,所以谢谢你。
309	That's very helpful.	这很有帮助。
310	So the concept of BATNA, it's an acronym.	所以BATNA的概念,是一个缩写.
311	It stands for Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.	它代表了谈判协议的最佳选择。
312	And the basic idea here is	这里的基本想法是
313	before you go into any important negotiation	在你进入任何重要谈判之前
314	for the rest of your life,	在你的余生,
315	you should think long and hard about	你应该仔细想想
316	what are you going to do	你要怎么办?
317	if you don't reach an agreement with your current opponent?	如果你不和你的对手达成协议?
318	So if you're negotiating for a job,	所以,如果你谈判一个工作,
319	it's very good to think long and hard about	久而久之的思考是非常好的
320	what are you going to do if you don't reach an agreement	达不成协议怎么办?
321	with this potential employee?	和这个潜在的员工?
322	Are you perfectly happy with your current job?	你对现在的工作很满意吗?
323	Is staying in your current job a fine option?	继续做你现在的工作是一个很好的选择吗?
324	Do you have another job offer on the table?	你还有别的工作机会吗?
325	Or are you facing unemployment?	还是你面临失业?
326	Knowing your BATNA is very critical for thinking about	了解你的BATNA对于思考
327	how aggressive you wanna be in your current negotiation.	你想在目前的谈判中多有攻击性
328	你的BATNA越好,
329	the tougher you can be.	你越坚强越好
330	So that changes what we call a reservation point	这样改变我们所谓的保留点
331	or how far would you go	或者你会走多远
332	in order to get an agreement done?	为了达成协议?
333	Also important is the criticality	关键性也很重要
334	思考他们的BATNA。
335	How badly do they need to get a deal done with you?	他们需要多久才能和你达成协议?
336	What are they going to do	他们该怎么办?
337	if they don't reach an agreement with you?	如果他们没和你达成协议呢?
338	This gives you some hint	这给你一些提示
339	about how far they can be pushed in this negotiation	关于他们能在这场谈判中被推进到什么程度
340	and what their reservation price is likely to be as well.	以及他们的预订价格可能也是多少。
341	And the difference between the two reservation points	和两个保留点的区别
342	is what we call a zone of possible agreement.	我们称之为可能达成协议的区域。
343	And the zone of possible agreement	以及可能达成协议的地区
344	in a typical buyer or seller negotiation	在典型的买方或卖方谈判中
345	is the area between the lowest price	是最低价格之间的区域
346	the seller would ever take	卖方将永远采取
347	and the highest price that the buyer would ever pay.	以及买主将支付的最高价格。
348	And now notice when we listen to a typical negotiation,	现在注意到,当我们听一个典型的谈判,
349	we typically feel that there's a convergence to a point,	我们一般都觉得有共同点
350	but that point often exists within the context	但这一点往往存在于背景中
351	of a much broader range of what could have happened	范围更广的本可以发生的事情
352	with different negotiation strategies	采用不同的谈判战略
353	by the two players who are at the table.	由两位在座的球员决定。
354	In a typical negotiation simulation	在典型的谈判模拟中
355	that I would use in teaching a group of executives,	我会用来教一群高管
356	we'll pass out materials.	我们会通过材料。
357	Half the room will play buyers,	一半的房间会扮演买家
358	half the room will play sellers.	一半的房间会扮演卖家。
359	We'll match up a buyer with a seller,	我们会把买家和卖家匹配
360	send them out of the room to find a quiet place	让他们离开房间找个安静的地方
361	to go negotiate and then come back with their results.	去谈判,然后回来他们的结果。
362	And all the buyers have the same material.	所有买家都有同样的材料
363	All the sellers have the same material.	所有销售者都有同样的材料.
364	But what's interesting	但有什么有趣的东西
365	is that there's a phenomenal range of results	是,有一个惊人的结果范围
366	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}让双方一起回来
367	So different pairs of negotiators	不同的谈判者
368	come back with dramatically different results,	回来的结果大不相同,
369	which surprises the executives	令高管们惊讶
370	because they thought they found the one point	因为他们认为他们找到了一点
371	where they could both agree.	他们都同意
372	In fact, that was one point	事实上,这是一点
373	within a much broader zone of possible agreement	在范围更广的可能协议范围内
374	that was possible.	这是可能的。
375	So in teaching negotiations,	因此,在教学谈判,
376	the part of teaching negotiations that I enjoy the most	我最享受的那部分谈判
377	is helping executives see the opportunity to create value	帮助高管看到创造价值的机会
378	or to break up what I call a mythical fixed pie.	或者打破我所谓的神话式固定派。
379	So I've been teaching negotiations for over 40 years.	所以我教谈判40多年了
380	And what I find most fascinating	我发现最迷人的
381	is that I'll run a simulation	我会做一个模拟
382	where the parties can create value	在当事人能够创造价值的情况下
383	by trading off two issues.	通过交换两个问题。
384	That is, the buyer cares more about issue A,	也就是说买方更关心A期
385	the seller cares more about issue B.	卖方更关心B问题。
386	And rather than compromising on A and B,	而不是对A和B妥协
387	they're both happier if the buyer gets what they want on A	如果买家得到他们想要的A,他们都会更快乐
388	and the seller gets what they want on B.	卖家得到他们想要的B。
389	But often, executives compromise on both issues.	但是,主管经常在这两个问题上妥协.
390	They don't find the gains from trade	他们找不到贸易收益
391	because they assume a mythical fixed pie.	因为他们假设一个神话中的固定派。
392	They assume that the pie is fixed.	他们假设馅饼是固定的。
393	And they miss opportunities to create gains from trade.	他们错过了从贸易中获得收益的机会。
394	This is probably the most important opportunity	这也许是最重要的机会
395	that executives fail to see in their real life.	高管们在现实生活中看不到
396	They fail to find these gains from trade.	它们未能从贸易中找到这些收益。
397	So helping people create value	所以帮助人们创造价值
398	so that the deal can be better for both sides	这样交易才能对双方都好
399	is critical to helping people negotiate effectively.	对帮助人们进行有效谈判至关重要。
400	We also know that negotiators face	我们还知道,谈判者面临
401	a variety of systematic biases.	各种系统性偏见。
402	We tend to be overconfident.	我们往往过于自信。
403	We tend to escalate commitment	我们的承诺会升级
404	to our prior course of action.	我们之前的行动方针。
405	So knowing what our systematic biases are	所以知道我们的系统偏见是什么
406	is critically important.	这一点非常重要。
407	And thinking about the biases of other parties	想想别人的偏见
408	is very important as well.	这一点也很重要。
409	Now I'm gonna talk about two more concepts	现在我要谈两个概念
410	from the background literature	从背景文献
411	before I talk about some ways in which your games have changed.	之前,我谈论一些方式你的游戏已经改变了。
412	I'm gonna talk a little bit about anchors	我要谈谈锚的问题
413	and a little bit about 50-50 splits	和一点点大约50 -50分
414	because these are topics that I see	因为这是我看到的话题
415	in other important contemporary books on negotiation.	在其他重要的当代谈判书籍中。
416	So I wanna integrate kind of what I think that I know.	所以我想融入我认为我知道的
417	So there are a lot of people out there	所以这里有很多人
418	who might give you advice	他们或许会劝告你们,
419	on the value of making an extreme anchor.	以做一个极端锚的价值。
420	And they will often have for you some story	他们常常会给你一些故事
421	where they made an extreme offer	在那里,他们做了一个极端的报价,
422	and they ended up with a success, okay?	他们最终取得了成功,好吗?
423	And my problem with these stories	我对这些故事的问题
424	is that when you meet somebody at a party	当你在派对上遇到某人
425	and they tell you a story about a negotiation success,	他们告诉你一个谈判成功的故事,
426	they very, very rarely tell you about the three failures	他们很少告诉你三个失败
427	that they also had in negotiation.	他们也曾谈判过。
428	And people who make extreme offers,	和提供极端报价的人,
429	they also end up blowing lots of deals	他们最后也搞砸了很多交易
430	where they could have had a deal	在那里,他们可以有一个交易
431	had they been more reasonable.	如果它们更合理的话
432	So we please people by making extreme offers	所以,我们取悦人们通过极端报价
433	and we don't hear about their failures.	我们没有听到他们的失败。
434	So this selective storytelling that we hear from people	所以,这种选择性的故事我们听到从人们
435	gives us the idea that extreme offers can be effective.	给了我们一个想法,即极端提议是有效的。
436	One example from the last Trump presidency	上届特朗普总统的一个例子
437	was he demanded that Mexico pay for a wall	他要求墨西哥支付一堵墙
438	separating Mexico from the United States.	把墨西哥和美国分开
439	Not only did Mexico never pay for the wall,	不仅墨西哥从来不付墙钱
440	but it basically reduced the cooperation	但它基本上减少了合作
441	between those countries.	这些国家之间。
442	So Mexico paid none of the costs	所以墨西哥没有支付任何费用
443	associated with Trump's wall building activities	与特朗普的建墙活动有关
444	and we had worse trade relations as a result.	我们的贸易关系因此更糟
445	Now, Adam Galinsky of Columbia University	现在,哥伦比亚大学的亚当·加林斯基
446	and Maurice Schweitzer from the University of Pennsylvania,	还有宾夕法尼亚大学的莫里斯·施韦策
447	two well-known scholars wrote a book called Friend or Foe	两位著名学者写了一本名为"朋友"或"福"的书
448	and they advocate for pretty extreme initial offers.	他们主张非常极端的初始报价。
449	The first offer should be just side of crazy	第一个提议应该是疯狂的
450	as opposed to that side of crazy.	而不是疯狂的那一面。
451	I don't agree with that advice.	我不同意这个建议。
452	I think that, again, the problem is	我认为,再次,问题在于
453	that we hear selective stories	我们听到有选择性的故事
454	and we have evidence on the power of extreme anchors	我们掌握了极端锚的力量
455	coming from classroom demonstrations	课堂示威
456	where people are reluctant to come back	人们不愿回来的地方
457	to the class with no deal	没有交易的班级
458	and that helps make extreme offers more successful.	这会让极端的报价更成功
459	In fact, I think that extreme offers sort of mess up	事实上,我觉得极端提供某种混乱
460	and prevent too many deals that should have been had.	并阻止太多的交易本来应该有。
461	I think that the right answer is you wanna anchor	我认为正确的答案是你想主播
462	within the zone of possible agreement.	在可能达成协议的区域。
463	That is, it's fine to be aggressive,	这就是说,这是很好的攻击,
464	but you wanna make an offer within the range	但你想在范围之内出价
465	that is in fact viable.	这实际上是可行的。
466	Another important topic is the idea of 50-50 splits.	另一个重要话题是50-50拆分的想法.
467	Many of you have been in negotiations	你们很多人都在谈判
468	where at some point the other side says,	在某一刻对方说,
469	we're only $600 apart,	我们只差600美元
470	why don't we just split the difference?	为什么我们不把分歧分开呢?
471	And the question is, how should we respond to that?	问题是,我们应如何对此作出反应?
472	And to see the commonality of 50-50 splits,	看五五分之分的共同点
473	many of you have been in a restaurant	你们中很多人都在餐馆
474	where the two parties said, why don't we just split the bill?	两党说,为什么我们不把法案分开呢?
475	But one interesting question is,	但一个有趣的问题是,
476	what if one person ate much more than the other person?	如果一个人吃得比另一个多呢?
477	Is a 50-50 split necessarily fair?	五五分法一定公平吗?
478	And when a parent passes away	当父母去世时
479	and leaves money to their children,	把钱留给他们的孩子们,
480	should they each get 50% or does it make sense	他们各得50%还是合理
481	to think about the needs of the different children?	考虑不同的孩子的需要?
482	And finally, I have a dog, I'm married to Marla,	最后我养了只狗我嫁给了玛拉
483	and I have a dog, her name's Becca,	我有条狗她叫贝卡
484	and sometimes we know that the dog	有时候我们知道狗
485	needs two more walks today,	今天还要再走两步
486	and one of us will propose to do the 4 p.m. walk	我们其中一人提议下午4时行走
487	and the other one will propose to do the 8 p.m. walk.	另一名则提议晚上8点散步。
488	Is that necessarily appropriate?	这必然合适吗?
489	And before you think, well, that seems pretty fair,	在你考虑之前这看起来很公平
490	but what if one of us is doing all the cooking	但是如果我们中的一个正在做所有的烹饪
491	during that time period?	在此期间?
492	Perhaps we should trade off the dog walks for the cooking	也许我们应该用狗走路换做饭
493	as we make a decision about how to think about this.	我们决定如何思考这个问题。
494	Now, I wanna tell you about two books	现在,我想告诉你两本书
495	that are written by other negotiation writers.	由其他谈判作者撰写。
496	One is Chris Voss, and his book has,	一个是克里斯・沃斯他的书有,
497	I find it an unfortunate title,	我觉得这是一个不幸的标题,
498	it's called Never Split the Difference,	叫做"永不分裂"
499	and the book really isn't all that much about it,	这本书其实不是那么简单,
500	although he does provide some examples	虽然他确实提供了一些例子
501	where splitting the difference doesn't make sense,	在分裂差异没有意义的地方,
502	and certainly I don't think	当然,我不认为
503	you should always split the difference,	你应该总是分区别,
504	but I think never splitting the difference	但我认为永远不要分分
505	is at a minimum, a bit of an overstatement,	至少有点夸张,
506	and a Yale professor, Barry Nelboff,	和耶鲁大学的教授巴里・尼尔博夫
507	wrote a book called Split the Pie,	写了一本书叫"分裂派"
508	and he argues a good way to go through life	他论证过人生的好方法
509	is to identify all the value	表示所有值
510	that you're creating for the two parties	你为两党创作
511	and simply split the pie equally between the two.	然后把馅饼平分
512	And finally, I wanna highlight the perspective	最后,我要强调观点
513	of my former colleague at Northwestern, David Messick,	我之前在西北的同事大卫·梅西克
514	who thinks about splitting the difference	他们想把分歧分开
515	作为一种社会heuristic。
516	Now, heuristic is a word	现在,热力学是一个词
517	in the cognitive psychology literature for a rule of thumb,	在认知心理学文献中为拇指规则,
518	like just sort of something that we do	就像我们做的一样
519	that works fine as a general rule to go through life,	做得很好,作为通则生活,
520	and what Messick argues is when we say,	而梅西克的论点是当我们说,
521	why don't we split the difference,	为什么我们不把分歧分开呢?
522	he argues it's not a mechanism for finding something fair,	他辩称这不是找到公平事物的机制,
523	it's a good mechanism to keep the parties	这是一个很好的机制保持各方
524	from needing to haggle over what would be fair.	从需要争夺什么是公平的。
525	So if you're in a restaurant and you've had a meal together	所以,如果你在餐厅和你们一起吃过一顿饭
526	and the check comes and you say,	支票来了,你说,
527	let's split the difference,	我们分道扬镳吧
528	that's not because you ate the same amount,	不是因为你吃了同样的量
529	it's because there's something socially unpleasant	是因为社会上有些不愉快
530	by being so specific about who ate how much,	具体到谁吃了多少
531	that it's simply a nice way of going through social life	它只是一个良好的方式经历社会生活
532	to say, why don't we just split the difference.	说,我们为什么不只是分成不同。
533	I think that these are all useful perspectives.	我认为,这些都是有用的观点。
534	Certainly, I don't agree with Voss	当然,我不同意Voss
535	that you should never split the difference.	你不应该分区别。
536	I think Neal Buff has a very interesting framework	我觉得Neal Buff有一个非常有趣的框架
537	and I think his book, Split the Pie,	我想他的书,"分派"
538	is a fine book to read.	是一本好书可以读。
539	At the same time, there are times	同时,还有时间
540	when I probably won't use that strategy	我可能不会用这个策略
541	and I think it's useful to think about Messick's idea	我觉得考虑一下梅西克的想法是有用的
542	that in fact, splitting the difference	事实上, 分裂分歧
543	is more of a roller thumb than anything else.	更是一个滚滚的拇指比任何其他。
544	Okay, so I wanna talk about two aspects	好吧,我想谈谈两个方面
545	that are, I think, pretty unique to the book	这本书很独特
546	having to do with ethics.	和道德有关
547	So now I'm moving into how I think the game has changed.	所以,现在我转向我认为游戏已经改变了。
548	At the top of this slide,	在这张幻灯片的顶部
549	it means we've been searching for a new home	这意味着我们一直在寻找一个新的家
550	and a friend of ours is our real estate agent.	我们的朋友是我们的房地产经纪人
551	We have always trusted her but have noticed	我们一直信任她但注意到了
552	that she keeps advising us to make offers	她一直建议我们出价
553	that are higher than we believe are reasonable.	这比我们相信的要高
554	We are concerned that this serves her interest	我们担心这符合她的利益
555	in getting a quick sale,	在得到一个快速的销售,
556	but not our interest in getting as low a price as possible.	但不是我们想要尽可能低价
557	Should we question her ability to offer us ethical advice?	我们应该质疑她给我们提供道德建议的能力吗?
558	Should we listen to her advice?	我们应该听她的建议吗?
559	Should we even remain friends with someone	我们是不是应该跟别人做朋友
560	whose advice would benefit her but not necessarily us?	谁的建议对她有益,但不一定是我们?
561	And so this is a kind of question I often hear	我经常听到这样的问题
562	from people in the US.	从美国的人。
563	In the US, most residential real estate transactions	在美国,大多数住宅房地产交易
564	occur through an agent	通过代理人发生
565	and then agent gets a commission on the sale of the house	然后代理得到一个佣金出售房子
566	and agents generally are better off	特工们一般都比较好
567	if the buyer is willing to offer more	如果买方愿意提供更多
568	and the seller is willing to take less.	卖家愿意少吃一点
569	They basically wanna get the deal done	他们基本上想要完成交易
570	and move on to the next house.	并搬去隔壁的房子。
571	And what I find intriguing about this story,	我发现这个故事很有趣
572	which I promise you I've heard many times	我向你保证,我听过很多次了
573	is that it fails to take into account	因为它没有考虑到
574	that many of us are biased in a self-serving direction.	我们许多人都偏向于一个自私的方向。
575	It's not because we're bad people.	不是因为我们是坏人
576	It's not because we're dishonest.	不是因为我们不诚实
577	It's because we honestly believe the perspective	因为我们真的相信观点
578	that happens to be best for us.	这对我们来说是件好事
579	In a different version of this,	在另一个版本中,
580	Linda Babcock and George Lowenstein,	琳达·巴布科克和乔治·洛文斯坦,
581	professors at Carnegie Mellon University,	卡内基梅隆大学教授,
582	did a study where they had law students	做了一个研究他们有法律学生
583	play the roles of plaintiff and defendant attorneys	发挥原告和被告律师的作用;
584	on an accident case.	在事故中发生。
585	So basically a car hit a motorcycle.	所以基本上一辆车撞上了摩托车。
586	Everyone agrees that the car driver is liable	大家都同意车长有责任
587	and the question is how much money should be paid	问题是应该付多少钱
588	to the plaintiff by the defendant to settle the case?	被告让原告解决此案?
589	And one of the things that they observe	他们所观察的事物之一
590	is that people playing the role of plaintiff	人们扮演原告的角色
591	honestly believe that the case should be settled	老实说这件事应该解决
592	at a higher price than the defendant's belief.	价格高于被告的信念。
593	So by playing the role,	所以通过扮演这个角色,
594	they end up believing their perspective	他们最终相信自己的观点
595	to a remarkable degree.	相当出色
596	Okay, and at the bottom of the screen,	好吧,在屏幕底部,
597	I'm sure that you've all been down there	我相信你们都去过那里
598	looking at this question.	看着这个问题。
599	I asked sort of what's your view about lying?	我问你对撒谎的看法是什么?
600	You should never lie.	你不应该撒谎
601	You should rarely lie.	你不应该撒谎。
602	You should avoid lying,	你应该避免撒谎
603	but lies are often necessary in negotiation.	但是在谈判中常常需要谎言。
604	Lying is simply a part of the negotiation process.	谎言只是谈判进程的一部分。
605	And I wanna highlight why I'm against lies	我想强调为什么我反对谎言
606	and then clarify why my answer is number two,	然后澄清为什么我的答案是第二,
607	as opposed to number one,	相对于第一,
608	which would seem like a nicer response.	这似乎是一个更好的反应。
609	So in 1962, which is a very long time ago,	所以在1962年, 很久以前,
610	that's the time when the world came closest	那时世界最接近了
611	to a nuclear Holocaust.	对核大屠杀。
612	In 1962, the Soviet Union had put nuclear missiles in Cuba	1962年,苏联在古巴部署核导弹
613	that could easily hit the United States.	这很容易击中美国。
614	The United States discovered that,	美国发现,
615	and then we eventually saw	然后我们最终看到了
616	the most important negotiation of my lifetime.	我一生最重要的谈判。
617	Obviously, it's before most of your lifetimes,	显然,这是在你大部分时间之前,
618	but we came very close to having a nuclear war.	但是我们几乎要开核战争了
619	The solution to getting the missiles out of Cuba	将导弹运出古巴的解决办法
620	and ending the crisis was that the United States agreed	美国同意结束危机
621	to take our nuclear missiles out of Turkey	把核导弹带出土耳其
622	that could also be aimed at the Soviet Union.	也可以以苏联为目标。
623	So there was a trade to remove weapons	因此,有一个交易去除武器
624	of mutual destruction aimed at the two countries,	两国相互毁灭,
625	which I would argue is far better	我觉得这样好多了
626	for the world than no agreement.	对于世界来说,不是没有协议。
627	Part of the story was that the Kennedy administration,	故事的一部分是肯尼迪政府
628	President Kennedy of the United States would look weak	美国总统肯尼迪看起来很软弱
629	if he admitted to taking the missiles out of Turkey.	如果他承认把导弹带出土耳其
630	And the Kennedy administration deceived the American public	肯尼迪政府欺骗了美国公众
631	and claimed that the Turkish missiles	并声称土耳其导弹
632	were not part of the deal,	不是交易的一部分,
633	that the United States simply decided six months later	美国在六个月后
634	to remove the missiles.	以清除导弹。
635	Now, that lie may well have saved the world	现在,这个谎言也许已经拯救了世界
636	from nuclear holocaust.	从核大屠杀。
637	And if I can save the world for one small lie,	如果我能拯救世界一个小谎言,
638	that seems like a pretty good deal.	这似乎是一个相当不错的交易。
639	Most of the time, you can't get that.	大多数时候你都搞不懂
640	And what you get from lying instead	你从说谎得到什么
641	is you destroy the opportunity to create value,	你毁了创造价值的机会,
642	you destroy relationships,	你破坏关系,
643	you destroy the opportunity to create value over time.	你毁了创造价值的机会
644	So I think that lying interferes with value creation	所以我觉得说谎会影响价值创造
645	and is generally a very bad strategy.	并且通常是一个非常糟糕的策略。
646	At the same time,	同时,
647	if we could get extraordinary benefits for the world,	如果我们能为世界带来特别的好处
648	then I think it may be worth it.	那也许值得
649	So I think it's important to think about why not to lie.	所以我认为考虑为什么不撒谎是很重要的。
650	And my reason is it destroys value.	而我的理由是它破坏了价值。
651	Occasionally, we might run into a situation	有时候,我们可能会遇到一个情况
652	where value could be created,	能够创造价值的地方,
653	as we saw in the Kennedy story.	正如我们在肯尼迪的故事中看到的
654	Okay, I think I'm gonna skip that one.	好吧,我想我会跳过那一个。
655	Okay, so I wanna highlight here	好,我想强调一下这里
656	that if we go back not very long ago, 30 years ago,	如果我们30年前回去
657	and you wanted to book a hotel room	你想订个酒店房间
658	in the United States for a vacation,	在美国度假,
659	it was a very complicated process, okay?	这是一个非常复杂的过程,好吗?
660	You might use a travel agent,	你也许需要旅行社
661	you might make a telephone call.	你可以打个电话
662	But if you think about making a hotel reservation	但如果你想订酒店
663	in a different city or in a different country,	在另一个城市或另一个国家,
664	before the online economy existed,	在网络经济存在之前
665	it was a dramatically different place.	那地方完全不同
666	Today, we book hotel rooms in other countries	今天,我们在其他国家订旅馆房间
667	in a small number of minutes with a small number of clicks	在几分钟内点击次数少
668	with a bunch of search engines	有一堆搜索引擎,
669	that help us find good deals and the like.	帮助我们找到好交易之类的。
670	It's a dramatically different world.	这是一个截然不同的世界。
671	I'd say up until COVID, most salespeople believed	我会说,直到COVID, 大多数销售人员相信
672	in the importance of negotiating face-to-face.	在面对面谈判的重要性。
673	When COVID hit, we found out	当COVID击中,我们发现
674	that wasn't gonna happen anymore.	那已经不可能了
675	And we found out that teaching face-to-face	我们发现当面教书
676	wasn't gonna happen.	不会发生的。
677	So we learned to teach online,	所以我们学会了在线教学
678	we learned to negotiate online.	我们学会了在线谈判。
679	And Terry Kurtzberg, a professor at Rectories University	和特里·库茨伯格, 校长大学教授
680	has done really terrific work highlighting	做了非常出色的工作突出
681	that there's so many decisions that we make	我们做了很多决定
682	about negotiating online without even thinking about it.	关于在线谈判甚至没有想到它。
683	Some of you quickly use your cell phone	你们中有些人很快用手机
684	in order to conduct the online negotiation.	为了进行在线谈判。
685	And Kurtzberg's research convinces me	柯茨伯格的研究让我相信
686	that having a larger monitor with greater clarity	更清晰地显示更大的监视器
687	is important.	这一点很重要。
688	To not be multitasking when you're negotiating	在谈判的时候不要多任务
689	is absolutely critical.	绝对是关键
690	If you have a partner on the negotiation	如果你在谈判中有合伙人
691	from your organization and you're negotiating	从你的组织你谈判
692	with other people and you're in different locations,	和别人,你在不同的地方,
693	thinking in advance about who's going to say what when	提前考虑一下谁要说什么
694	is critically important.	这一点非常重要。
695	To realize that you need a back channel to communicate	要意识到你需要一个后台来沟通
696	to your negotiation partner, again, is critically important.	对你的谈判伙伴来说也是非常重要的
697	This is a way in which the negotiation environment of today	这是今天谈判环境的一种方式
698	is fundamentally different than negotiation in the past.	与过去的谈判根本不同。
699	Okay, so I now wanna just tell you	好,我现在只想告诉你
700	about a few different negotiations	几场不同的谈判
701	where we can think about how to change the game.	在那里我们可以思考如何改变游戏。
702	So rather than accepting the game as it is,	因此,与其接受游戏的原样,
703	we can think about how to change the game.	我们可以考虑如何改变游戏
704	All of these are going to be true stories.	所有这些都是真实的故事。
705	So, story number one happened a few years ago.	所以,第一个故事发生在几年前。
706	Basically, a friend of mine put her condo on the market	基本上,我的一个朋友把她的公寓上市了
707	in Cambridge, Massachusetts.	在马萨诸塞州剑桥
708	And she thought that her condo was worth	她觉得她的公寓值得
709	between $1 million and $1.1 million.	100万至110万美元之间。
710	The market was very attractive to sellers at the time.	当时的市场对销售商非常有吸引力.
711	And the agent convinced her that it would be wise	经纪人说服她这样做是明智的
712	to put her house on the market at a slightly low price	把她的房子上市价格略低
713	where the idea was to create many bidders	其中的想法是创建许多投标人
714	who would make offers to create a bidding war.	谁愿意出价制造一场投标战争。
715	And I don't necessarily agree with this strategy	我不一定同意这个策略
716	but this is what the seller did.	但这是卖家的行为
717	And then the interesting part of the story occurs.	然后故事的有趣部分发生.
718	So she put her house on the market	所以她把房子卖了
719	with an open house scheduled for Sunday.	周日有间开放式房子
720	So she put the house on the market,	所以她把房子的市场,
721	I believe it was on Thursday.	我想是周四的事吧周四的事
722	And by Friday, I received an email.	到了星期五,我收到了一封电子邮件。
723	And the email basically asked for advice.	邮件基本上要求咨询。
724	And the reason for the advice	还有建议的原因
725	was that the plan had been to have an open house on Sunday	计划是星期天开户
726	to let lots of people see it	让很多人看到它
727	and then get offers by early the next week.	然后在下周初得到报价。
728	The problem was that somebody had made	问题是有人制造了
729	a very attractive offer for $1.125 million	一个非常有吸引力的报价112.5万美元
730	but they put a short deadline on the offer	但他们对报价的最后期限很短
731	demanding a yes or no answer from the seller	要求卖方回答是或否
732	or otherwise your offer would expire on Sunday night	否则你的报价将在周日晚上到期
733	before the other offers were likely to come in.	在其他报价可能出现之前。
734	And the real estate agent consistent with an earlier slide	和房地产代理符合早先的幻灯片
735	was very enthusiastic about the seller	对卖家非常热情
736	either taking the 1.125 or countering it with a bit more	要么拿1.125,要么再多一点
737	but basically trying to reach an agreement pretty quickly.	但基本上想尽快达成协议
738	And as negotiation professor,	作为谈判教授,
739	my friend said, what do you think I should do?	我的朋友说,你认为我应该做什么?
740	And I borrowed from an idea	我从一个主意借来的
741	from my colleague, Guham Subramanian	我的同事古汉姆·苏布拉曼尼安
742	who's also a professor at the Harvard Business School.	他也是哈佛商学院的教授.
743	And it comes from the merger environment	它来自合并环境
744	and it's a strategy called Go Shop.	这是一个叫做"去商店"的策略
745	And what I proposed to her	我向她提议
746	was that she requests that the prospective buyer	她要求未来的买方
747	make their offer legally binding	* 使其提议具有法律约束力;
748	through the following Wednesday	通过下个星期三
749	rather than expiring on Sunday.	而不是在周日结束。
750	But in return offer the buyer a chance	但作为回报买家有机会
751	to beat the best offer that the seller is received	击败卖方收到的最佳报价
752	by $25,000 if they receive a higher offer by Wednesday.	25 000美元,如果他们在星期三收到更高的报价。
753	And if no offer arrives,	如果没有人出价
754	the seller would commit to accepting the current offer.	卖方将承诺接受目前的报价。
755	Now, if you think about this,	现在,如果你想想这个,
756	this is kind of an intriguing set of ideas	这是一种有趣的想法
757	that I borrowed from Guham.	我从古汉姆那里借来的
758	Again, he talks about this in the context of companies	再说一遍,他从公司的角度来讨论这个问题
759	in a merger environment.	在合并环境中。
760	But the basic idea is that it gives the buyer	但基本的想法是它让买方
761	the assurance that if they wanna pay	保证如果他们想要支付
762	the fair market value for that condo, they can buy it.	公寓的公平市场价值, 他们可以买它。
763	It gives the seller the opportunity	给卖家机会
764	to find out what the market is.	找出市场是什么。
765	And it basically binds the contract	它基本上约束了合同
766	in a way that will work.	以一种会起作用的方式。
767	My friend adjusted my suggested final offer premium	我朋友调整了我建议的最后报价
768	down from 25,000 to 10,000	从25,000降至10,000
769	and then basically made this counter offer	然后基本上做了这个反报价
770	implementing the idea	落实该设想
771	and then put the house on the market,	然后把房子上市,
772	had the open house on Sunday, generated other offers.	周日有开放的房屋, 产生其他报价。
773	And in fact, the highest offer they got	事实上,他们得到的最高报价
774	was 1.2 million,	120万个
775	which they used to go back to the original buyer	他们曾经回到原买主那里
776	who said, yes, I'll pay the 1.2, 1.2, 1 million.	他说,是的,我会支付120,120,100万。
777	And they basically were able to take that.	他们基本上可以接受。
778	So this is an interesting opportunity	这是一个有趣的机会
779	rather than saying yes or no to the 1.125	而不是对1.125表示是或否
780	or countering it with a slightly different offer.	或以稍有不同的方式反对
781	This provided the buyer with an opportunity	这为买方提供了机会
782	to explore the market.	探索市场。
783	Okay, now since we have Princeton University Press	好了既然我们有普林斯顿大学出版社
784	sitting right here with us in the audience,	坐在观众席上
785	I thought I'd share with you	我想跟你分享
786	my negotiations with them	我和他们的谈判
787	because authors need to negotiate with a publishing house.	因为作者需要和出版社谈判
788	And I wanna talk about some interesting ways	我想谈谈一些有趣的方法
789	in which the game might change.	游戏可能改变。
790	So when I was negotiating the contract	所以当我谈判合同时
791	for my prior book	我以前的书
792	with Princeton University Press Complicit,	与普林斯顿大学出版社合作,
793	the book had a significant amount of demand.	这本书有大量的需求。
794	I had five different publishers	我有五个不同的出版商
795	who were interested in publishing Complicit.	他们有兴趣出版合集。
796	I tend to do my negotiations myself.	我经常自己谈判
797	I tend to not use an agent or a lawyer.	我往往不使用代理人或律师。
798	Other authors handle that very differently.	其他作者处理这个非常不同。
799	And while I'm running essentially an auction for the book,	当我在为这本书进行拍卖时
800	I think I know basically the price level	我想我基本上知道价格水平
801	that we're headed toward in terms of the auction.	我们正准备拍卖
802	And for a variety of reasons,	出于各种原因,
803	I decided that Princeton University Press	我决定普林斯顿大学出版社
804	is the right press for me.	对我来说是合适的媒体。
805	Now the problem with running an auction,	现在的拍卖问题,
806	you might end up with the highest bidder	你可能最终会出价最高
807	not being the party that you most wanna end up with	而不是你最想参加的派对
808	as your partner in the complicated process	作为你复杂的伙伴
809	of publishing a book.	出版一本书。
810	So at some point, I adjusted the procedure.	所以我调整了程序
811	Again, my colleague, Guhan Subramanian	我的同事古汉·苏布拉马尼安
812	has an interesting word for it.	有个有趣的词
813	He calls it a negotiate auction.	他称之为谈判拍卖
814	Basically in the middle of the auction,	基本上在拍卖的中间,
815	I basically took the price that Princeton had on the table	我基本上承担了普林斯顿的价钱
816	and I said, if you add 20% to it,	我说,如果你加20%,
817	I'll end the negotiation now	我现在就结束谈判
818	without going back to any of the other publishers.	没有回到其他出版商。
819	And they said, can you give us a half hour	他们说你能给我们半小时吗?
820	to talk internally?	谈谈内部?
821	I said, sure.	我说,当然。
822	And they came back and they took that deal.	然后他们回来接受了交易
823	So basically I changed the process	所以基本上我改变了过程
824	because I developed a preference	因为我有了一个偏好
825	for who I ended up negotiating.	为了我最后谈判的人
826	Now the details of contracts are also important.	现在合同的细节也很重要。
827	And I have to say that	我不得不说
828	I generally like having fewer additional parties involved.	我一般都喜欢让更多的政党参与进来。
829	And I think I could generally read a contract reasonably	我想我可以合理地阅读一份合同
830	well despite the lack of a law degree.	尽管没有法律学位
831	It is true that I was a little bit sloppy here	我确实有点草率
832	and I signed a contract with Princeton	我和普林斯顿签约了
833	not realizing the clause that you can see	未实现您可以看到的条款
834	in the bottom half of this slide.	在此幻灯片的下半部。
835	And basically what this clause did	基本上这个条款所做的
836	was it gave Princeton the sole opportunity	普林斯顿是唯一的机会
837	to negotiate with me exclusively for a period of time,	专门和我谈判一段时间,
838	specifically a 60 day period	具体为60天
839	that was spelled out pretty clearly on my next book.	我的下一本书上写得很清楚
840	Now, I honestly didn't notice	现在,我真的没注意到
841	that I had agreed to this paragraph,	我同意了该段,
842	but when I was writing my next book,	但是当我写下一本书时
843	the one that you see sitting in front of the room right now,	那个你现在看到坐在房间前面的那个
844	I basically looked at my complicit contract.	我基本上看我的同谋合同。
845	I don't even remember why.	我甚至不记得为什么。
846	And I saw this particular term.	我见过这个特别的术语。
847	And quite honestly, I was a little bit disappointed.	老实说我有点失望
848	I was planning on going on	我本来打算继续的
849	and running an auction on my negotiation book.	并进行拍卖我的谈判本。
850	But after I had changed the terms	但当我改变了条件
851	of how we were gonna negotiate complicit,	我们打算如何谈判同谋,
852	what I found is that Princeton University Press	我发现的是普林斯顿大学出版社
853	had a very intriguing strategy	有个非常有趣的策略
854	for affecting the negotiation of the next book.	影响下一本书的谈判
855	Of course, I followed the agreement that I had signed	当然,我遵守我签署的协议
856	and Princeton made me a generous offer	普林斯顿给了我一个慷慨的提议
857	on the negotiation of the game has changed.	游戏的谈判已经改变。
858	And I ended up signing with them again, quite happily.	我最后又和他们签约了非常幸福
859	So it ended up working out reasonably well.	因此,它最终取得了合理的成功。
860	Now, this is gonna be kind of the final piece	现在,这是一种最后的作品
861	that I'm gonna talk about.	我要谈谈
862	And some of you might know the name Daniel Kahneman,	你们有些人可能知道丹尼尔·卡恩曼的名字
863	often credited with creating	常记为创建
864	the world of behavioral economics.	行为经济学的世界
865	About a decade ago, I spent a lot of time	大约十年前,我花了很多时间
866	working with Kahneman on a consulting project	与Kahneman合作开展咨询项目
867	for a very big insurance company.	对于一个非常大的保险公司。
868	And we developed a variety of negotiation programs	我们制定了各种谈判计划
869	for this insurance company.	为这家保险公司。
870	And the thing that we kept on running into	而我们一直碰到的事情
871	is how do, we would be told we're reasonable,	是怎么做,我们会被告知我们是合理的,
872	the other side isn't.	另一边不是。
873	How do we negotiate with an unreasonable alternative party?	我们如何与一个不合理的替代方谈判?
874	Now, I should describe the insurance negotiation context	现在,我应该描述一下保险谈判的背景
875	a little bit.	一点点。
876	So assuming an insurance company covers you	所以,假设一个保险公司覆盖你
877	for some possible problem that might occur,	对于一些可能出现的问题,
878	the problem occurs, and then the insurance company says,	问题发生, 然后保险公司说,
879	we'll give you a million dollars to solve that problem.	我们会给你一百万来解决这个问题。
880	And the claimant says, no, this is worth $10 million.	索赔人说,不,这是价值1 000万美元。
881	Now, unlike negotiating a new business deal,	现在,不像谈判新的商业交易,
882	where if you don't reach a deal,	在那里,如果你没有达成一个交易,
883	you can each go your own way	你们可以各自走自己的路
884	and negotiate with other people on other deals instead,	与其他人谈判其他交易,
885	in an insurance claim, kind of like a lawsuit,	在保险索赔, 有点像诉讼,
886	if you aren't able to reach an agreement,	如果你不能达成协议,
887	the eventual resolution procedure is if you go to court	最终解决程序是,如果你向法院提起诉讼
888	and the court decides what the fair price	法院决定公平价格
889	would be for that claim.	这将是为这项索赔。
890	And the question we kept on running into	我们一直遇到的问题
891	from this insurance company is,	这个保险公司是,
892	how do we deal with claimant attorneys	我们如何处理原告律师
893	who are making demands that are 10 times anything reasonable?	是谁在提出十倍合理的要求?
894	And what we developed for this insurance company,	我们为这家保险公司开发的东西
895	and I describe in negotiation the game has changed,	我在商谈中说游戏已经变了
896	is something called the final offer arbitration challenge.	这是所谓的最后报价仲裁质疑。
897	Now, I'm gonna give you a little bit of background	现在,我要给你一些背景
898	on this idea by telling you about the history of this idea	告诉你这个想法的历史
899	and its use in sports in the US.	以及它在美国体育界的使用。
900	And then I'll talk about it as a more general procedure	然后,我会谈论它作为一个更普通的程序
901	for how to get unreasonable people to come to the table.	如何让不讲道理的人上桌
902	So Carl Stevens was a labor relations expert in the 1960s,	所以卡尔·史蒂文斯在1960年代是一位劳资关系专家,
903	and he actually invented the term final offer arbitration.	他发明了最后报价仲裁这个术语
904	And it was in response to the idea,	这是针对这个想法,
905	actually I should describe arbitration.	其实我应该描述一下仲裁
906	So arbitration is a process by which party A and party B,	因此,仲裁是A方和B方通过的程序,
907	instead of going to court,	而不是上法庭
908	agree to go to a wise third party,	同意去一个明智的第三方,
909	tell them their positions, for example,	告诉他们他们的立场,
910	what the wage should be,	报酬是多少?
911	whether it should be $10 an hour or $16 an hour.	每小时10美元还是16美元
912	And the arbitrator has the power like a judge	仲裁员拥有像法官一样的权力
913	to decide what's fair.	决定什么是公平的。
914	And a problem that existed	还有一个问题
915	in the labor relations literature in the 1960s	1960年代的劳资关系文献
916	is that many saw arbitrators not as wise people,	难道许多人认为仲裁员不是聪明人吗?
917	but as people who pretty routinely split the difference	但作为平时分身的人
918	between the last two positions that they heard.	在他们听到的最后两个位置之间
919	So if the union said $16 an hour is fair	所以如果工会说每小时16美元是公平的
920	and the management says $10 an hour is fair,	管理层说每小时10美元是公平的
921	you end up with $13 an hour.	一小时13美元
922	Now, many of you can start to think about	很多人可以开始思考
923	how you might gain that.	你可能会得到的。
924	And instead of going in with 16,	而不是和16个进去
925	maybe you wanna go in with 20.	也许你想和20。
926	That way, when they split the difference	这样,当他们分了分歧
927	between 10 and 20, you end up with 15,	在10到20之间,你最后是15,
928	which is better than splitting the difference	胜过分裂
929	between 10 and 16.	10到16岁
930	So one of the problems with arbitration	仲裁的问题之一
931	is that if you plan on an arbitration,	如果你计划仲裁
932	you could imagine wanting your position	你可以想象想要你的地位
933	to be as extreme as possible.	尽可能的极端。
934	So Stevens invented this idea	所以史蒂文斯发明了这个想法
935	of final offer arbitration,	最后要约仲裁,
936	where the arbitrator wouldn't split the difference.	在那里,仲裁员不会分分歧。
937	In fact, they couldn't split the difference.	事实上,他们不能把分歧分开.
938	They would be required to take	他们将被要求采取
939	one of the two offers on the table,	两个提议之一摆在桌面上,
940	ideally the one that is fairest.	最好是最公平的一个
941	So if you get 10 and 16,	所以,如果你得到10和16,
942	you have to decide 10 or 16, not 13.	你必须决定10或16,而不是13。
943	Now, why would that be good?	为什么这样会很好呢?
944	And the quick answer is	而快速的答案是,
945	when people are subject to final offer arbitration,	当人们要接受最后的仲裁的时候,
946	they're afraid of losing the arbitration	他们害怕失去仲裁
947	and they end up negotiating deals	他们最终谈判交易
948	rather than actually going through the arbitration process.	而不是实际上通过仲裁程序。
949	So the final offer arbitration process is there.	所以最后的要约仲裁程序就在那里。
950	It's invoked, but people settle	它被引用,但人们定居
951	before they get to the actual arbitration procedure.	在进入实际仲裁程序之前。
952	So the most visible American example	所以美国最引人注目的例子
953	of the use of final offer arbitration	最后要约仲裁的使用
954	is in our sport baseball,	是在我们的运动棒球,
955	where players and teams in a certain category of players,	在某类玩家和团队中,
956	if they're unable to reach an agreement on their own,	如果他们自己不能达成协议
957	they're allowed to file for final offer arbitration.	允许他们申请最后报价仲裁。
958	And once they do,	一旦他们这样做,
959	over 90% of the cases that are filed then settle	90%以上的案件随后结案
960	because the parties are afraid	因为双方害怕
961	of losing in final offer arbitration	最终要约仲裁失败
962	so they become more reasonable.	所以它们变得更合理。
963	And when they do go to final offer arbitration,	当他们去最终提出仲裁,
964	instead of being at 10 and 16,	而不是在10和16岁,
965	they end up at 1240 versus 1260.	他们最终在1240年对1260年。
966	That is, the offers come much closer to converging.	也就是说,这些提议更接近于趋同。
967	So the idea of a final offer arbitration challenge	因此,关于最后报价仲裁质疑的想法
968	is we may not need the institution for this.	我们可能不需要这个机构。
969	If you're having a dispute with somebody	如果你和别人有争执
970	and you need to work with them in the future,	并且你需要与他们合作在将来,
971	so walking away isn't really an option,	所以离开并不是一个真正的选择,
972	but you're having trouble getting any kind of resolution	但是,你没有得到任何一种分辨率
973	and any judicial process would take a long time,	任何司法程序都需要很长时间,
974	perhaps you could basically propose to them,	也许你基本上可以向他们求婚,
975	why don't we both submit our offers to a wise party?	为什么我们不都向一个明智的党提交提议呢?
976	I'm in the US,	我在美国,
977	we have the American Arbitration Association	我们有美国仲裁协会
978	to provide arbitrators,	提供仲裁员,
979	but you can imagine even finding	但你可以想象,甚至发现
980	a mutually agreeable wise person	彼此同意的聪明人
981	who will listen to the two arguments,	他将听从两件事。
982	look at the two final offers,	看看最后两个报价
983	and then select which of the two is more appropriate.	然后选择其中哪一种更合适。
984	Okay, so all of these ideas are developed in my book.	好吧,所以所有这些想法都是在我的书中发展出来的。
985	The negotiation of the game has changed.	游戏的谈判已经改变.
986	It's hard for me to know exactly what's on your minds,	我很难确切地知道你在想什么
987	so I think I'll end a few minutes ahead of schedule	所以我想我会提前几分钟结束
988	so we have more time for discussion with you	所以我们有更多的时间跟你讨论
989	and questions from the group,	和小组提出的问题,
990	and I'll look forward to learning from you	我期待着学习从你
991	in the next phase of our program.	在下一阶段我们的方案。
992	Thank you very much, Professor Bauserman	非常感谢,鲍瑟曼教授
993	for this wonderful talk.	为这个美妙的谈话。
994	I will start off with a couple question,	我先问几个问题
995	one that is more pertinent to the book	一个更贴切的书
996	and the subject matter,	和主题事项,
997	and another that's more contemporary	还有另一个更现代的
998	to start off our Q&A interaction.	开始我们之间的交流
999	And as you might see,	如你所见
1000	the audience has been stilling off	观众一直保持不动
1001	the regular seats as well,	常规席位也,
1002	so, and everyone is finding your talk riveting.	所以,每个人都发现你的谈话很激烈。
1003	So I'll start off with the first question.	故先问第一义.
1004	So after reading your book,	所以读完你的书后
1005	and by the way, I recommend everyone read it,	顺便说一句,我建议大家读一下
1006	and we are selling them,	我们卖掉他们,
1007	not we are, but the Princeton University Press	不是我们而是普林斯顿大学出版社
1008	is selling the book at the venue as well,	书也在会场出售,
1009	if you're interested in getting a book after this talk.	如果你有兴趣得到一本书在这次谈话之后。
1010	So after reading the book,	所以读完这本书后
1011	one question I have in my mind,	我脑中有一个问题
1012	and you just mentioned it,	你刚刚提到,
1013	close to the end of your discussion	接近结束你的讨论
1014	about your work with Danny Kahneman	关于你和丹尼·卡恩曼的工作
1015	and behavioral economics.	和行为经济学。
1016	My, the impression, and it could be erroneous,	我的印象,它可能是错误的,
1017	my impression from the book	我从书上的印象
1018	is that there are certain heuristic	就是说,有某些高血压
1019	that we may want to take into account for	我们可能想考虑
1020	when we engage in negotiations,	当我们进行谈判时,
1021	so that we, I guess we approach negotiations more	这样,我们,我想,我们更接近谈判
1022	with rationality, rather than with emotions,	理性,而不是情绪,
1023	and kind of reach the best possible outcome	并取得尽可能好的结果
1024	and create the most value for all sides.	并且为各方创造最大价值。
1025	But the question I wish to post to you	但我想寄给你的问题
1026	is if you think there are situations where,	如果你认为有些情况...
1027	or if there might be areas where emotions may come in handy	或者可能有些地方情绪可能有用
1028	in creating value for negotiations and outcomes.	为谈判和结果创造价值。
1029	Sure, so first of all,	当然,所以首先,
1030	I'm gonna elaborate a little bit on your question,	我要解释一下你的问题
1031	and then we can come back to the question	然后我们可以回到问题上来
1032	that you ended up with.	最终你与。
1033	So there's a whole field of behavioral economics	因此,有一个整个领域的行为经济学
1034	which focuses on the systematic and predictable biases	侧重于系统性和可预测的偏见
1035	that affect our own judgment.	这影响了我们自己的判断。
1036	And I would say that we wanna be aware of	我会说,我们想知道
1037	those biases in our decision-making.	我们决策中的偏见
1038	This is a topic that's covered in this book,	这是本书所论述的话题,
1039	but it's also covered in my two prior books	但也在我的前两本书里都有
1040	on negotiation as well.	还有谈判
1041	And we also highlight the fact that the other side	我们还强调另一边
1042	can also be systematically biased,	也可能是有系统偏见的,
1043	and we wanna be aware of that.	我们想知道这一点。
1044	In my limited number of comments,	在我有限的评论中,
1045	I focused on a couple of those biases.	我专注于一些这些偏见。
1046	I focus on the fact that we assume that the pie is fixed	我专注于一个事实,我们假设派是固定的
1047	even when there's opportunities for gains from trade.	即使有贸易收益的机会。
1048	I focused on our failure to think about	我专注于我们没有思考
1049	the perspective of the other side.	对方的观点。
1050	These are biases that we wanna overcome.	这些是我们希望克服的偏见。
1051	In Kahneman's wonderful book, Thinking Fast and Slow,	在卡恩曼的《快速和缓慢的思考》一书中
1052	he distinguishes between system one and system two thinking.	他区分系统一和系统二思维.
1053	And system one is your intuitive decision-making processes,	第一系统是你的直观决策程序
1054	the first thing that comes to your mind,	第一件事进入你的想法,
1055	your first reaction.	你的第一个反应。
1056	System two is your more deliberative thinking.	第二系统是你更深思熟虑
1057	When you think about the pros and cons	当你想到利弊
1058	of each course of action,	每一行动方针,
1059	when you do whatever decision analysis might be appropriate,	当你做任何适当的决策分析时
1060	when you check in with your smart friend	当你与你的聪明朋友联系时
1061	to ask them what they think,	问他们怎样想,
1062	those are all system two processes.	这些都是系统两个过程。
1063	And I'll quickly say that across lots of contexts	我很快会说在许多背景中
1064	in negotiation and otherwise,	谈判或其他方面,
1065	there is good reason to believe system two	有很好的理由相信第二系统
1066	leads to better decisions in system one.	导致在系统一中作出更好的决定。
1067	So if I have to pick a basic process,	所以,如果我必须选择一个基本的过程,
1068	I wanna move people from system one intuitive processes	我想把人们从系统一个直觉过程移走
1069	to system two.	到系统二。
1070	Are there situations where you want the other side	你是否想要另一边
1071	to know that you really are angry and upset	知道你真的很生气和难过
1072	by the fact that you've discovered	由你发现的事实
1073	that they've been lying to you about their interests?	他们一直骗你他们的利益?
1074	Sure, okay.	当然,好吧。
1075	So I think we can easily identify situations	所以,我想我们可以很容易地确定情况
1076	where we want people to understand	我们希望人们明白
1077	sort of our emotional reaction.	我们的情绪反应
1078	If you're negotiating with your romantic partner,	如果你跟你的浪漫伴侣谈判
1079	do you want them to know that they've upset you very much?	你想让他们知道他们让你很生气吗?
1080	Sure.	当然
1081	So there could be legitimate content.	因此,可以有合法的内容。
1082	On the other hand,	另一方面,
1083	do we wanna sort of start and finish	我们想要开始和结束吗?
1084	with our emotional reaction,	我们的情绪反应,
1085	which is gonna be part of our system one thinking?	谁是我们系统的一部分一个思考?
1086	I think not.	我想没有。
1087	I think that we often escalate to emotional conflicts	我觉得我们经常升级为情绪冲突
1088	in ways that are long-term dysfunctional.	长期运作不良
1089	So I don't mean to deny the reality	所以我不想否认事实
1090	of our emotional reaction.	我们的情绪反应。
1091	Do we wanna convey that at times to the other side?	我们是否有时想把这个传达到另一边?
1092	Yes.	对
1093	But we wanna realize that the wise resolution	但我们想认识到明智的决议
1094	is going to probably come	可能会来
1095	by moving toward our system two more deliberative processes.	走向我们的系统有两个审议过程
1096	That's very helpful now, thank you.	这很有帮助,谢谢。
1097	And my second question is more contextual and contemporary	我的第二个问题更贴近背景和当代
1098	about how you, if the Chinese government	关于你,如果中国政府
1099	were to reach out to you to become a consultant	本来要联络你成为顾问
1100	in its negotiations with the Trump administration,	在与特朗普政府的谈判,
1101	what would be your advice on some potential strategies	你对一些潜在的策略有何建议?
1102	to approach their approaches?	接近他们的方法?
1103	Thank you.	谢谢
1104	Sure.	当然
1105	We could almost substitute Chinese government	我们几乎可以代替中国政府
1106	for Harvard University because both of these entities	哈佛大学,因为这两个实体
1107	are having trouble with the Trump administration.	特朗普政府有麻烦了
1108	And to the extent that anybody is bullying you,	只要有人欺负你
1109	should you give in?	你该投降吗?
1110	The answer is generally no.	答案一般是否定的。
1111	You don't wanna reward people	你不想奖励别人
1112	for extreme aggressive behavior.	为极端的侵略行为。
1113	And there's been a lot written recently	最近写了很多
1114	about the Trump administration suggesting	关于特朗普政府的建议
1115	that after Trump makes very extreme demands,	在特朗普提出非常极端的要求后
1116	he often ends up backing off	他经常退缩
1117	when he can't get what he wants	当他得不到他想要的时
1118	and then declaring victory anyhow.	然后宣布胜利,无论如何。
1119	And certainly we can see some of that	当然,我们可以看到一些
1120	in terms of putting 145% tariff on Chinese products,	对中国产品征收145%的关税,
1121	which he then backed off on with some kind of...	然后他用某种...
1122	of sort of deal that was made behind the scenes between the two governments.	像是两国政府在幕后达成的交易
1123	And I think that we make a real mistake if we give in to people making very extreme demands.	我认为如果我们屈服于那些提出极端要求的人,我们犯了一个真正的错误。
1124	And I find some of the extreme tariff demands to be unfortunate, bad for the US, bad for	我发现一些极端的关税要求是不幸的,对美国不利,对美国不利
1125	the world, bad for the other side.	世界,对另一方不利。
1126	We've been talking about value creation.	我们一直在谈论价值创造。
1127	Overall, extreme barriers and extreme tariffs reduce value.	总体而言,极端壁垒和极端关税降低了价值。
1128	And free trade is one of the most important things that we need to consider.	而自由贸易是我们需要考虑的最重要的事情之一。
1129	So are there things that Trump might be saying that Harvard should do differently that make sense?	那么川普有没有说过哈佛应该采取不同的做法
1130	That's certainly possible.	这当然是可能的。
1131	Should Harvard think about how it's been managing independent of the Trump administration?	哈佛应该考虑它是如何独立于特朗普政府的管理吗?
1132	Absolutely.	当然
1133	Should the Chinese government think about whether they've had too many barriers	如果中国政府考虑一下他们是否有太多的障碍
1134	to products from other countries?	对其他国家的产品?
1135	Sure, they should.	当然,他们应该。
1136	So is it possible that the Chinese government has engaged in decisions in the past that	中国政府过去是否曾做出过
1137	aren't optimal for creating a free trade environment?	创造自由贸易环境不理想吗?
1138	That's certainly possible.	这当然是可能的。
1139	But should you give in to extreme demands from Trump or any other extremist opponent?	但你应该屈服于川普或其他极端对手的极端要求吗?
1140	The answer is generally no.	答案一般是否定的。
1141	What that will get you is more extreme demands in the future.	将来你会得到更极端的要求
1142	We don't want to reward bad behavior.	我们不想奖励坏人
1143	We basically want to call bad behavior for what it is and then reset the negotiation,	我们基本上想叫坏行为是什么然后重设谈判,
1144	which hopefully is what we will move toward in terms of US-China relations moving forward.	希望这是我们将朝着中美关系前进的方向前进。
1145	Thank you very much for sharing your insights.	非常感谢大家分享你的见解。

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