罗德学者与耶鲁世界学者对谈《地缘风云》Rhodes Scho

罗德学者与耶鲁世界学者对谈《地缘风云》Rhodes Scholar vs Yale World Fellow on Geopolitics

发布于 2023-10-18 · 时长 1:02:33

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:05	Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Yale Center Beijing Zoom Talk.	大家好,欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京小谈会
0:10	我是北京耶鲁中心执行董事Carolee Rafferty.
0:15	In collaboration with the Yale Club of Hong Kong and the Yale Club of Beijing, today we	与香港耶鲁俱乐部和北京耶鲁俱乐部合作的今天
0:21	are super delighted to have Brian Wong, a Rhodes Scholar and Assistant Professor in	很高兴有王布赖恩罗德学者兼助理教授
0:27	Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong, and George Chen, a Yale World Fellow and Managing	香港大学的哲学家和耶鲁大学世界研究员兼经理的陈乔治
0:33	Director for the Asia Group, for a discussion on understanding geopolitics at the crossroads	亚洲集团主任,在十字路口讨论了解地缘政治问题
0:41	and loosely based on Brian's latest book, Diyuan Fengyuan, The Era of Geopolitics.	并松散地根据布莱恩的最新著作"地渊风云","地缘政治时代".
0:49	This evening will go as follows.	今夜将如下.
0:51	George will moderate this approximately hour-long talk about Brian's latest book, which Brian	George会主持关于Brian最新书的长达约一小时的谈话,Brian
1:00	very impressively completed during his stays at Oxford University among multiple books,	在牛津大学停留期间写了很多书

展开字幕全文（958 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Yale Center Beijing Zoom Talk.	大家好,欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京小谈会
2	我是北京耶鲁中心执行董事Carolee Rafferty.
3	In collaboration with the Yale Club of Hong Kong and the Yale Club of Beijing, today we	与香港耶鲁俱乐部和北京耶鲁俱乐部合作的今天
4	are super delighted to have Brian Wong, a Rhodes Scholar and Assistant Professor in	很高兴有王布赖恩罗德学者兼助理教授
5	Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong, and George Chen, a Yale World Fellow and Managing	香港大学的哲学家和耶鲁大学世界研究员兼经理的陈乔治
6	Director for the Asia Group, for a discussion on understanding geopolitics at the crossroads	亚洲集团主任,在十字路口讨论了解地缘政治问题
7	and loosely based on Brian's latest book, Diyuan Fengyuan, The Era of Geopolitics.	并松散地根据布莱恩的最新著作"地渊风云","地缘政治时代".
8	This evening will go as follows.	今夜将如下.
9	George will moderate this approximately hour-long talk about Brian's latest book, which Brian	George会主持关于Brian最新书的长达约一小时的谈话,Brian
10	very impressively completed during his stays at Oxford University among multiple books,	在牛津大学停留期间写了很多书
11	where he shared his observations and insights on the role of Hong Kong and US-China relations,	他就香港和美中关系的作用发表了看法和见解,
12	the evolving landscape of geopolitics, and the significance of acquiring knowledge in	不断演变的地缘政治格局,以及获得有关
13	this field, whichever sector you work in.	这个领域,无论你在哪里工作。
14	After their conversations, we'll then open up the floor for Q&A.	在他们谈话后,我们将打开地板给QQA.
15	A brief introduction about each of their backgrounds, Brian holds a DPhil in Politics and MPhil	Brian 简略介绍他们各自背景,
16	in Political Theory with Distinction, an MA in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics	哲学、政治经济学硕士
17	at University of Oxford.	牛津大学
18	As a columnist at the Hong Kong Economic Journal, Xin Bao, an editor-at-large for Thrive Global,	作为香港经济日报的专栏作家,新宝,Thrive Global的编辑,
19	he writes prolifically on Chinese foreign policy and Sino-West relations for publications	他写关于中国外交政策和中西关系的文章
20	such as Time, Foreign Policy, Financial Times, Fortune, you name it, and according to George,	比如"时间","外交政策","金融时报","财富",你说,据乔治说,
21	and I know from other people as well, he's very well read by leaders such as Hong Kong's	我从其他人那里也知道他读得非常清楚香港等领导人
22	Chief Executive, John Lee.	行政长官李约翰.
23	George Chen is a Yale World Fellow.	陈乔治是耶鲁世界研究员.
24	He's a practitioner and scholar with over two decades of expertise across media, technology,	他是一名实践者和学者,拥有超过20年的跨媒体,科技专业知识.
25	and public policy, although I'm sure you can't tell it, but for his slightly graying hair,	和公共政策, 虽然我敢肯定,你不能告诉它, 但对于他的略微灰色的头发,
26	he was Metta's Facebook first ever and most senior policy leader for Greater China, Mongolia,	他是梅塔的Facebook史上第一位也是大中国、蒙古的最高级政策领袖
27	and Central Asia in both editorial and management rules at leading media organizations	主要媒体组织的编辑和管理规则
28	such as the South China Morning Post and Reuters.	例如南华早报和路透社.
29	He's currently a doctoral candidate at the University of Hong Kong.	目前是香港大学博士生候选人.
30	He earned his Masters of International and Public Affairs with Distinction from Hong Kong.	他从香港获得国际和公共事务硕士学位。
31	He was a concentration on the strategic triangle of US, China, and Taiwan relations.	他专注于美国,中国,台湾关系的战略三角关系.
32	He's also a visiting scholar at National Changsha University in Taipei, although we've marketed	他也是台北国立长沙大学的客座学者,虽然我们已经上市了
33	this as a kind of versus Rhodes Scholar versus Yale World Fellow.	这是罗兹学者和耶鲁大学世界研究员的对决
34	We're doing this in a very collegial way, and I know we're in for a fascinating conversation.	我们这样做的方式非常合议, 我知道我们有一个有趣的谈话。
35	So without further ado, let's welcome Brian and George.	所以,不做更多, 让我们欢迎布莱恩和乔治。
36	Thank you very much.	谢谢
37	Thank you, Carol.	谢谢你,卡罗尔。
38	Thanks, Carol.	谢谢卡罗尔
39	Thank you, Carol.	谢谢你,卡罗尔。
40	Thank you.	谢谢
41	Thanks, Brian.	谢谢,布莱恩
42	Thanks, everyone.	谢谢各位
43	I know this is exactly dinner time in Beijing, and we probably also have audience from the	我知道这正好是北京的晚餐时间我们大概也有观众
44	rest of the world.	世间别处.
45	Thanks for your interest to delay or skip your dinner time to join the conversation	谢谢你的关心推迟或跳过晚餐时间加入谈话
46	with us to talk about geopolitics.	我们来谈谈地缘政治
47	Brian has been my friend for many, many years.	布莱恩是我的朋友很多年了
48	He also spent many, many years at Oxford.	他还在牛津度过了许多,许多年.
49	Finally, he graduated with an Oxford PhD, and he just joined the HKU as assistant professor	最后,他毕业于牛津大学博士,他刚加入香港大学,担任助理教授
50	in the philosophy department.	在哲学系。
51	I also need to do a bit of promotion for Brian, although he just joined the HKU, but he already	我也得帮Brian升职虽然他刚加入香港大学但他已经
52	helped to launch the program called the AI Essex, it's a master program.	帮助推出名为AI Essex的程序,这是一个主程序.
53	If anyone's interested, go to the HKU website.	如果有人有兴趣,请到HKU网站查询.
54	They got a pretty packed class for this year.	他们今年的课排得很满
55	This is the first year, but I understand they will continue to recruit for the next year.	这是第一年,但我知道他们明年将继续招募人员。
56	So it will be fun, AI Essex.	所以这将是有趣的,AI埃塞克斯。
57	But this is not a topic we want to address today.	但是,我们今天不想讨论这个议题。
58	We will talk about the geopolitics.	我们将谈论地缘政治。
59	The reason is, as Carol mentioned, Brian published a new book.	原因是,正如卡罗尔提到的,布莱恩出版了一本新书.
60	I don't know if you have an English name or an official name, but anyway, Chinese is	我不知道你有英文名字还是正式名字但无论如何,中文是
61	Di Yuan Feng Yun, partly because Brian is also a columnist for one of the most read	狄元凤云,部分是因为布莱恩也是读得最多的一位专栏作家
62	business status in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Journal, Xin Bao.	香港商业地位香港商报新宝.
63	So, of course, he's been writing the columns for many years and during his time at Oxford,	所以,当然,他已经写了专栏多年和在他的牛津期间,
64	as Carol indicated, there are a lot of VIPs among Brian's audience.	正如卡罗尔所说,布莱恩的观众中有很多贵宾.
65	So I think Brian thinks it's a great idea to put the columns together and, of course,	所以我觉得布莱恩觉得把栏目拼凑起来是个好主意当然
66	to also rewrite some chapters, to have a book about geopolitics.	还重写一些章节, 有一本关于地缘政治的书。
67	This is not a book for PhD students to study.	这不是博士生学习的书。
68	It's very easy to read.	极易读诵.
69	There are a lot of stories you and I will hear about in the real world.	在现实世界里,你会听到很多故事
70	So this is perhaps my first question.	这可能是我的第一个问题。
71	I can start the conversation now with Brian.	我现在可以和布莱恩开始谈话了
72	So a lot of people will say, wow, geopolitics, why should we study it for ordinary people?	所以很多人会说,哇,地缘政治, 我们为什么要为普通人研究它?
73	We can leave this to policy experts.	我们可以让政策专家来处理
74	Is there really a need for people like you and me, for people who don't really	真的需要你我这样的人需要那些不真正
75	study politics, to also understand geopolitics?	学习政治,也理解地缘政治?
76	What are the benefits for people to read your book and to know a bit more about geopolitics?	人们读你的书,更了解地缘政治,有什么好处?
77	Thank you very much.	谢谢
78	And thank you, George.	谢谢你,乔治
79	And thank you, Carol and the Yale team for having me here.	谢谢你,卡罗尔和耶鲁的团队让我在这里。
80	I just want to start by offering a preamble to our discussion today and answering	我只想先为我们今天的讨论提出一个序言并回答
81	indirectly first what you said, George, concerning why geopolitics and why individuals	首先,乔治,你说过的关于为什么地缘政治和为什么个人
82	in relation to learning about geopolitics.	与学习地缘政治有关。
83	And I posit that the answer is rather straightforward, which is that, likely or not,	我假设答案是相当直截了当的, 也就是,无论可能与否,
84	geopolitics, unfortunately, is here to stay and is likely to affect us.	不幸的是,地缘政治在这里会留下来,并有可能影响我们。
85	From the visa bans directed towards ordinary civilians that are merely suspected of	从针对普通平民的签证禁令来看,这些平民只是被怀疑
86	having an affiliation with the ruling Parsi, I'm talking about American bans towards	我指的是美国禁止
87	Chinese citizens, through to allegations of espionage and charges of interference	中国公民,通过间谍指控和干涉指控
88	levied towards ethnic Russians in the UK and in Europe, to indeed the sort of the	对在英国和欧洲的俄罗斯人征收的税,实际上属于
89	shifting of the world towards an increasingly ideologically oriented, less about money,	将世界转向越来越注重意识形态的,而不是金钱,
90	less about trade, less about doing business and more about all of these incredibly	少谈贸易,少谈生意,多谈这些不可思议的
91	fractious and wrought abstract claims of religiosity, of partisanship and of identity	宗教、党派和身份的分裂和抽象主张
92	politics.	政治问题。
93	All of these phenomena happening around us today are indicative of one thing,	今天在我们周围发生的所有这些现象都表明了一件事,
94	that there's no escape from politics and its ever present effects.	无法逃避政治和它现在的影响
95	And that was also one of the primary motivations, right, which got me thinking about	这也是主要动机之一,没错, 让我想到
96	this book, because the very original conception of this, when I was discussing with	这本书,因为这个最初的概念, 当我正在讨论
97	Alice Kwok, who's a dear friend and esteemed mentor, who's currently the editor in chief	爱丽丝·郭他是一位好朋友和尊敬的导师现任主编
98	for the Hong Kong Economic Journal, we were essentially discussing the past few years of	在香港经济日报上, 我们主要讨论过去几年来
99	events that affected and taken to us in Hong Kong, but also, by and large, ethnic Chinese	影响香港的事件, 并带给我们,
100	folks living in China, living abroad in a world at large.	生活在中国的人,生活在一个大世界的海外.
101	There's no escape from politics, even if we were to say, I don't want to touch politics,	即使我们说我不想碰政治
102	I want to touch ideology, I'm not interested in getting bogged down and embroiled.	我想触摸意识形态,我对陷入困境和纠缠不感兴趣.
103	It doesn't matter, because at the end of the day, there's always a way for politics to	无所谓因为最后政治总会有办法
104	come find you.	来找你。
105	So the first point I want to make here is, I was driven to really put together a guide.	所以,我想在这里提出的第一点是, 我被驱使真正汇集一个指南。
106	It's almost like a survival guide, you know, kind of like a how to survive a zombie	这就像一个生存指南,你知道, 有点像如何生存僵尸
107	apocalypse.	启示录
108	But in this case, it's how to survive a post-globalisation, increasingly	但在这种情况下,它是如何在全球化后生存的, 越来越
109	pre-, you know, I guess a pre-geopolitical tension, this state of complete confusion,	之前,你知道,我猜一个之前的地缘政治紧张, 这种状态完全混乱,
110	this dusk of the old order and the dawn of a new order.	这个旧秩序的黄昏和新秩序的黎明。
111	How can we defend our own interests and keep ourselves safe?	我们怎样才能捍卫自己的利益,保护自己安全?
112	And by that, that also means, by the way, keeping our families and friends and loved	顺便说一句,这也意味着保护我们的家人和朋友
113	ones safe.	安全的东西。
114	So that was really the motivation undergirding that.	所以,这其实是动机激发了这一点。
115	And secondly, just very quickly, you know, there's often this thought that geopolitics	其次,很快,你知道, 经常有这种想法地缘政治
116	should be relegated and consigned to the realm of politicians, diplomats, statesmen, so on	政治人物、外交官、政治家等等
117	and so forth.	诸如来.
118	And yet, as we've seen in the likes of Donald Trump, Bolsonaro, Marine	然而,正如我们在唐纳德·特朗普,博尔索纳罗,海军陆战队中看到的
119	Le Pen in France, this is an era where statesmen and politicians are no longer behaving as	法国的勒庞时代政治家和政治家们不再
120	they really should be, where the common interests and the public interests have been	在共同利益和公共利益已经实现的地方,它们确实应当成为:
121	sacrificed and thrown under the bus by those who are precisely elected with the original	被选在公交车下的人所牺牲
122	purpose of purportedly serving the public.	所谓为公众服务的目的。
123	And if indeed our statesmen and our diplomats	如果我们的政治家和外交官
124	and our politicians are not living up to their end of the bargain, then it's high time I	我们的政客们没有完成他们的交易那么是时候了
125	thought that we found our own space and our own devices as a recourse, as a solution	以为我们找到自己的空间和我们自己的装置作为追索,作为解决方案
126	to much in the Malay.	在马来人很多。
127	We can no longer count upon the leaders and our governments in charge	我们不能再指望领导人和政府来负责
128	in positions of power to fend for our interests.	身居要职以维护我们的利益
129	And that is also why, in part, I wrote the	这也是为什么我写了部分
130	book.	书。
131	So thank you very much for that great question, George.	非常感谢你的问候,乔治
132	Thanks, Brian.	谢谢,布莱恩
133	Now, everybody can tell you are a truly Oxford alum, based on your	现在,每个人都可以告诉你一个真正的牛津校友,根据你的
134	strong Oxford British accent.	牛津英国口音很强
135	But anyway, so yes, I very much agree.	但无论如何,所以是的,我非常同意。
136	I think that geopolitics	我认为地缘政治
137	now matters to everyone, no matter which industry you are working in.	不管你在哪个行业工作对每个人都很重要
138	I spend a lot of time	我花了很多时间
139	in the tech industry, and I can prove technology is not just about the master technologists,	在技术行业, 我可以证明技术不只是关于技术大师,
140	right?	对吧?
141	If you think about how the internet is governed, that's very much geopolitical.	如果你想到互联网是如何管理的, 那是非常地缘政治的。
142	Challenging these days.	挑战这些日子。
143	You mentioned the globalization, we will come back to that	你提到全球化,我们会回到
144	topic.	主题。
145	But before that, I think in our normal life, even if you just read the media	但在此之前,我想在我们的正常生活中, 即使你只是阅读媒体
146	headlines, you will always catch up with terms like G20, G7, G2.	头条,你总是会赶上像G20,G7,G2。
147	And all this G2 nowadays	现在所有的G2
148	refers to the US and China.	指美国和中国。
149	And some people will say, well, forget geopolitics.	有些人会说,忘记地缘政治。
150	At the	在那个
151	end of the day, it's just like two big nations.	最后,它就像两个大国。
152	If China and the US can get along, the world	如果中国和美国能和睦相处世界
153	will get better.	会好起来的
154	If not, it will affect everyone.	如果不是,它会影响到每个人。
155	Do you agree that we are kind of coming	你同意我们要来吗?
156	towards the two pillars rather than a multi-polar world?	走向两大支柱,而不是多极世界?
157	And what does that mean to smaller	这对小一点意味着什么
158	countries, if you are not liking the US and China?	如果你不喜欢美国和中国呢?
159	Thank you very much, George.	非常感谢,乔治。
160	Again, an important question.	再次提出一个重要问题。
161	You mentioned G2, G77, G8, so on	你提到G2,G77,G8等等
162	and so forth, the G7.	等,七国集团.
163	These are all acronyms.	这些都是缩写。
164	But yet, for the sake of clarity, I guess,	但为了清楚起见我想
165	let's hone in on the notion of G2 in particular.	我们来谈谈G2的概念
166	Because if you were to ask me if I thought we	因为如果你问我,如果我想我们
167	were living in a G2 world today, I'd say this.	今天生活在一个G2世界,我想说。
168	I broadly believe that the world is becoming	我普遍认为世界正在变得
169	increasingly bipolar, but bipolar in an unequal and uneven manner.	日益两极化,但两极化的方式不平等和不均衡。
170	And that is to say that	也就是说
171	the United States remains by far ahead of China when it comes to, firstly, economic	美国在经济方面远远领先于中国。
172	might and wherewithal, although the gap is closing quite rapidly there, financial prowess	尽管差距正在迅速缩小,但金融优势
173	with regards to being the dominant currency in a global reserve currency.	作为全球储备货币的主要货币。
174	The gap is closing	差距正在缩小
175	somewhat, but we've got a long way to go before China can achieve any semblance of	有点,但我们还有很长的路要走,中国才能实现
176	parity with America there.	在那里与美国平等。
177	And finally, when it comes to the military, and also to a lesser	最后,当它涉及到军事, 以及一个较小的
178	extent, the soft power dimensions, I'd say China still has a fair bit of catching up	温柔的电源维度,我可以说中国仍然有相当的赶上
179	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我们得去
180	So in short, there is an asymmetry in power between the United States and China.	简而言之,美国和中国的权力不对称。
181	And to some friends of mine who are incredibly confident and trenchant when they say, yes,	和我的一些朋友他们令人难以置信的自信和沟壑当他们说,是的,
182	China has now surpassed America, we've now overtaken America, I'd say, well, I appreciate	现在中国已经超越了美国, 我们现在超越了美国, 我想说,我很感激
183	your optimism, but your sanguine attitudes may not necessarily reflect what is in fact	但你的乐观态度未必能反映事实
184	the reality.	现实
185	And that happens with a lot of things in life.	生命中发生的很多事情
186	So we have to recalibrate	所以我们要重新校正
187	our expectations.	我们的期望。
188	With that said, what I'm more concerned about is that whilst we are	说到这里,我更担心的是...
189	living in a bipolar world, that neither the United States nor China is perhaps stepping	生活在两极世界的美国和中国都可能步入
190	up to the mantle of global governance, you know, therefore leaving the space open for	至全球治理的地幔,因此,为
191	the onset of the kindle burger trap, e.g.	例如,火柴汉堡陷阱的开始。
192	a state where no single government or no single	国家没有单一政府或单一政府
193	power in the world is willing to step in and step up to provide for the public goods that	世界上的强国愿意介入和介入,提供公共产品
194	the world needs.	这世界需要。
195	And in the context of the 21st century, that includes, for instance,	在21世纪的背景下,例如,
196	climate change, related adaptation and mitigation measures and means that many in the	气候变化、相关的适应和缓解措施,以及意味着许多在气候变化、适应和缓解措施方面处于
197	global south and developing countries in the world do not have access to.	全球南方和世界上发展中国家无法进入。
198	That also	还有
199	includes regulations, frameworks that allow us to make sense of risks and potential	包括使我们能够了解风险和潜力的条例、框架
200	opportunities to be gained from, you know, technology such as artificial intelligence	从人工智能等技术中获得的机会
201	and also advanced forms of biotech and cyber genetics.	以及先进的生物技术和网络遗传学形式。
202	And finally, in face of global	最后,面对全球
203	pandemics and food crises epitomized no better than perhaps by the recently concluded or	流行性疾病和粮食危机的体现也许与最近结束的或
204	some would say still ongoing covid pandemic.	有人会说仍在流行
205	Right.	对
206	It is vital that we have a global	至关重要的是,我们有一个全球性的
207	response, a coordinated and collaborative response to these issues.	(c) 采取协调、协作的对策,解决这些问题。
208	And yet precisely	确切地说
209	because of the increasingly fractured and fractious relations between Beijing and	由于北京与北京之间日益断裂和分裂的关系,
210	Washington and the state of what I call mutual strategic mistrust and threat perception	华盛顿和我所说的相互战略不信任和威胁感的状况
211	that we see both powers is locked in today.	我们今天看到两种力量都被锁住了
212	There's this worry that I have, and I don't	有这种担心,我有,我不
213	know if you agree with me, George and Carol and everyone else, that our world is trending	如果你同意我,乔治和卡罗尔还有其他人,我们的世界正在发展
214	towards and sleepwalking into disaster without our taking notice because we're too busy	梦游在灾难中,我们不注意,因为我们太忙了
215	talking about political disagreements, Sino-U.S. spats, acrimony between different	谈政治分歧中美吐槽异国争霸
216	leaders.	领导人。
217	Now, that's something I'm quite concerned about.	我非常担心这个
218	But if there is indeed a	但是,如果确实有
219	silver lining that I can see on the horizon, it'd be the rise of locally and regionally	我从地平线上可以看到的光线将会是当地和地区的崛起
220	prominent power centers, the likes of India, the European Union, ASEAN right there in	印度、欧盟、东盟等国家
221	Southeast Asia.	东南亚.
222	These are all regions and countries that, whilst on their own, may not	它们是所有区域和国家,虽然它们本身可能不会
223	be able to push back adequately against the bipolar world order, nor do they have any	能够充分抵制两极世界秩序,它们也没有任何
224	incentives to because they want to, you know, many of them play these two powers off	因为他们想,你知道, 他们中的很多人玩这两种力量关闭
225	against one another.	互相对抗
226	But individually, in their own ways, in their respective regions,	但是,以各自的方式,在各自的区域,
227	they are playing, to some extent, an effective role in curbing the excesses, the	它们在一定程度上正在发挥有效作用,制止过度行为,制止在武装冲突期间的暴行。
228	excesses of both Beijing and Washington's desire for countries to take sides.	超越了北京和华盛顿两国对各国采取立场的愿望。
229	And I would posit that this desire for countries to choose their allegiances, declare their	我假定各国愿意选择效忠,
230	allegiances is particularly evident coming from Washington.	华盛顿的效忠特别明显。
231	Sure, China might say, you	当然,中国可能说,你
232	know, you've got to join the Belt and Road Initiative, buy into our vision of a shared	你知道,你必须加入带和公路倡议, 买进我们的愿景共享
233	future of common destiny and support of global security, development and civilisation	共同命运的未来和支持全球安全、发展和文明
234	initiatives.	(b) 采取主动行动。
235	But at the end of the day, China knows that it can't afford to force countries	但最后,中国知道不能强迫各国
236	to choose sides because once it does that, it will lose.	选择一方,因为一旦它这样做,它就会输掉。
237	No country, very few countries	没有国家,很少有国家
238	rather, I'm sure there's some, would want to exclusively take the side of China against	更确切地说,我敢肯定,有些人, 会想完全站在中国一边反对
239	the United States, despite all the valid grievances that many of them could well	美国,尽管他们中许多人有合理的冤情
240	harbour towards the US.	港对美国。
241	If you take Saudi Arabia, for instance, a country that Joe	如果你拿沙特阿拉伯为例,一个乔的国家
242	Biden openly lambasted and promised to convert into a pariah state, I mean, Saudi Arabia is	拜登公开宣示承诺将变成一个贱民国家我是说沙特阿拉伯
243	no fan of the kind of hubris and ideological supremacism on display from Washington.	华盛顿的狂妄和意识形态优越主义
244	And still, nevertheless, we see Saudi Arabia actively engaging and responding to	尽管如此,我们仍看到沙特阿拉伯积极介入和响应
245	America's invitation for it to participate in a sort of expanded version of the Abraham	美国邀请它参加亚伯拉罕的扩展版
246	Accord.	协议。
247	So in short, I would posit that what we're seeing here today is an even bipolar	简言之,我假设我们今天看到的是两极分化
248	world with a lot of regional clusters and powers.	拥有许多区域集群和权力的世界。
249	And yet, you know, global governance remains a	然而,全球治理仍然是
250	sore point of that is, that is, you know, quite frankly, lacking and wanting in a status quo.	令人痛心的是,这是,你知道,非常坦率地说,缺乏和缺乏现状。
251	I do want to, you know, share one, you know, more like, you know, realistic example,	我想,你知道,分享一个,你知道, 更喜欢,你知道,现实的例子,
252	you know, to show, you know, if we talk about geopolitics, you know, just, you know,	你知道,展示,你知道, 如果我们谈论地缘政治, 你知道,只是,你知道,
253	from G2 perspective, you know, how realistic the challenge is, you know, facing all of us,	从G2的角度,你知道, 多么现实的挑战,你知道, 面对我们所有人,
254	you know, Brian, you mentioned, you know, the world is definitely, you know, trading	你知道,布莱恩,你提到,你知道, 世界绝对是,你知道,
255	into a more dangerous direction.	进入更危险的方向。
256	And sorry for a bit self-promotion, you know, Brian and I	对不起,有点自我提升, 你知道,布莱恩和我
257	recently co-authored an OPAF about, you know, why the US and China should collaborate rather	最近共同撰写了一个OPAF, 关于为什么美国和中国应该合作
258	than like decouple in the aspect of AI, right?	而不是像在AI的方面,对不对?
259	You know, maybe, you know, Brian, you can share	你知道,也许,你知道,布莱恩, 你可以分享
260	a little bit, you know, I just want to use, you know, that, you know, AI, you know, it's a hot	一点点,你知道, 我只是想使用, 你知道,那,你知道,AI,你知道, 这是一个热
261	topic as an example, you know, for you to explain more about, you know, how geopolitics works,	主题作为一个例子,你知道, 让你解释,你知道, 如何地缘政治工作,
262	you know, in the aspect of technology and what the risks are, you know, if we don't get along	你知道,在技术方面是什么风险, 你知道,如果我们不相处
263	with each other, you know, especially among the big countries.	彼此之间,你知道的, 特别是大国之间。
264	I'll also share the link in the	我也会分享这个链接
265	chat box with the audience.	与观众聊天盒.
266	Thank you, George.	谢谢你,乔治。
267	You know, a mentor of mine once quoted as the	你知道,我的导师曾经引用
268	Henry Kissinger saying that, you know, if the Ukraine war is the last and one of those dreadful	亨利・基辛格说,你知道, 如果乌克兰战争是最后一次和那些可怕的之一
269	wars of the 20th century, even though it's happened, you know, it is happening in 21st century,	20世纪的战争, 虽然它已经发生, 你知道,它是发生在21世纪,
270	then any potential showdown between China and America over any insert region of potential	中美之间任何潜在区域
271	conflict could well be the first 21st century bona fide 21st century war, because this is going	冲突很可能是第一次21世纪真正的21世纪战争,因为这场战争正在展开。
272	to be a war that could well involve artificial intelligence with China and America both being AI	这场战争很可能涉及人工智能中美都是AI
273	superpowers and paraphrasing from a very popular book penned recently, you know, on AI and AI	超能力与诠释,
274	capacities on both parties.	双方的能力。
275	And there's not going to be a winner.	而无胜者.
276	No one's going to win from a	没人会赢的
277	showdown between China and America that goes kinetic, that goes, you know, and turns into a	在中国和美国之间炫耀, 进行动力学, 去,你知道,变成一个
278	hot war involving artificial intelligence.	涉及人工智能的热战
279	And that's largely because of the innate characteristics	这主要是因为天生的特质
280	of AI.	来文日期: 1999年7月1日
281	It is incredibly rapid in its processing speeds and calculation abilities.	它的处理速度和计算能力都非常快。
282	It is expansive	它很宽广
283	any volume of data as access to at its ready disposal.	任何数量的数据可供随时使用。
284	It is capable of imitating replicating,	它能够模仿复制,
285	even surpassing humans with regards to what we call broadly intelligent behaviors.	甚至超越人类对于我们所说的广义的智能行为。
286	And	还有
287	whilst we're by no means at the point of artificial general intelligence just yet,	虽然我们还没有进入人工一般情报阶段
288	you know, but what had previously seemed to be impenetrable and frankly impossible,	你知道,但以前似乎无法穿透而且坦率地说是不可能的,
289	right, AGI, you know, is no longer that distant and far away from us as we speak today.	是的,AGI,你知道, 不再那么遥远和远离我们我们今天发言。
290	You've	你已经
291	we can see that from the trajectory of evolution when it comes to generative AI, right, with the	我们从进化的轨迹中可以看到当它涉及到基因的AI,对,与
292	GPT1234 and then so forth.	GPT1234 等,于是开始使用.
293	You can also see that with regards to the rise of civilian	也可以看到,关于平民的崛起
294	and military dual usages of AI when it comes to identifying faces and targets, algorithm based	在识别面孔和目标、基于算法的AI的双重军事用途
295	sorting and allocation of resources, and even just the prospects of AI and algorithm fueled	资源分类和分配,甚至只是 AI和算法的前景
296	hacking campaigns that interfere with the digital and also physical infrastructure	干扰数字和有形基础设施的黑客活动
297	of different countries.	不同国家。
298	All of this is to say that I think whilst analogies between nuclear weapons,	所有这一切都是说,我认为,虽然类似核武器,
299	or more specifically nuclear non-proliferation and AI regulation, I don't think these analogies	更具体地说,核不扩散和人工智能条例, 我不认为这些类比
300	quite stand given the difference in terms of the barriers to entry, accessibility and also	鉴于在进入、获得和进入方面的障碍不同,
301	decentralization vis-a-vis AI ownership and usage.	相对于大赦国际的所有权和使用权的权力下放。
302	There is nevertheless an element of	然而,有一个要素是:
303	congruence between the two, which is that both nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence,	两者一致,即核武器和人工智能,
304	especially when militarized, could yield devastating consequences.	特别是在军事化的情况下,可能会产生毁灭性的后果。
305	Devastating	毁灭
306	consequences are irreversible, that cannot be repaired, cannot be contained, cannot be	后果是不可逆转的,无法修复,无法遏制,也无法消除。
307	managed once the cat's proverbially out of the bag, and that is if China and America are indeed	一旦猫从袋子里脱颖而出就能管理好,如果中国和美国真的
308	insistent on heading towards this conflict, if America is indeed so adamant that China's	如果美国确实如此坚忍不拔以至于中国
309	rise must be inhibited at any cost and that China does not find a way to work around that sort of	必须不惜一切代价抑制中国的崛起,而中国却无法在这种情况下开展工作。
310	grand strategy advanced by the morphing and emerging consensus in DC, if indeed all of these	由发展中国家正在形成的和正在形成的共识推动的宏伟战略,
311	ifs were to materialize, and I fear that the questions we should be asking then isn't which	恐怕我们应该问的问题不是
312	cities would or would not be bombed, but which cities can remain immune from the digital wipeout,	城市会或不会被轰炸, 但哪些城市可以免于数字毁灭,
313	annihilation and all but certain guaranteed destruction of the coordination capacities	消除协调能力,除某些有保证的破坏外
314	on a part of government.	在政府的一部分。
315	So I think, you know, just right off the bat, the biggest tail end risk	所以,我想,你知道, 刚刚离开蝙蝠,最大的尾端风险
316	really when it comes to Sino-American tensions is an AI showdown, not just a nuclear war, and indeed	事实上,在中美关系紧张时,是AI的炫耀, 不仅仅是核战争,事实上
317	nuclear wars might be less likely due to the commonly accepted and ingrained understanding,	由于普遍接受和根深蒂固的理解,核战争的可能性可能较小,
318	right, of mutually assured destruction with regards to nuclear weapons, but on the front of AI,	在核武器方面相互保证销毁,但在大赦国际的前线,
319	that's where I fear that our flippancy and our complacency would lead us towards Armageddon.	那就是我担心我们自满和自满会导致我们走向世界末日的地方
320	And furthermore, on a more positive note, there's much that Beijing and Washington can learn from	此外,从一个更积极的方面来看,北京和华盛顿可以学到很多东西。
321	one another when it comes to AI development, governance and regulation.	在涉及大赦国际的发展、治理和监管时,彼此之间相互交流。
322	China stands to gain	中华会赢的
323	from America's involvement of the private sector and also cognizance of the strengths and unique	美国私营部门的参与,也认识到其优势和独特性,
324	talents of, you know, firms such as OpenAI, Microsoft, so on and so forth in cultivating	诸如OpenAI、微软等企业在培育
325	their own arsenal of AI capabilities.	拥有自己的人工智能能力
326	The private sector is not always, you know, to use a Chinese	民营部门并不总是用中国人
327	phrase, they're not necessarily beasts that must be reined in, so to speak.	他们不一定是必须被约束的野兽可以说
328	And yet, of course,	然而,当然,
329	America has a danger of going down, you know, the other end of extremity, right, and essentially	美国有下沉的危险,你知道, 另一端的极端,正确的,基本上
330	seeking to over restrict private sector or rather an over restrict regulations against the private	试图过度限制私营部门,或对私营部门实行过度限制。
331	sector and to be excessively permissive towards the private sector.	并过分纵容私营部门。
332	And here I would recommend	在这里,我建议
333	we look at China's, you know, pretty extensive and comprehensive generative AI regulations that	我们看看中国的,你知道的, 相当广泛和全面基因AI条例
334	were just rolled out last month based on a working document that was circulated towards the end of	上个月刚刚根据一份工作文件推出,该文件在接近结束时分发。
335	Q1 this year concerning generative AI.	今年关于基因AI的问题1。
336	You know, it's clear that the State Council in China is	很明显,中国国务院
337	thinking about AI and its implications and the dangers of it on misinformation, on non-alignment	思考大赦国际及其影响和它对错误信息、不结盟的危险
338	and other forms of undesirable usages of AI should fall into the wrong hands.	以及其他形式的不受欢迎的大赦国际惯例应落入坏人之手。
339	I think America could	我认为美国可以
340	afford to really look, you know, and take seriously what the Chinese government is putting out there	认真对待中国政府提出的
341	and try and learn from it because it is through mutual exchange and collaboration that I guess	试着从中吸取教训,因为我猜这是通过相互交流和合作
342	both economies and their respective companies and individual citizens can then derive, you know,	经济以及各自公司和公民个人都可以得到,你知道,
343	the resources and the ammunition they need to improve the understanding of the graphs of and	它们需要哪些资源和弹药来增进对图表和图表的了解。
344	also the regulation of AI.	以及大赦国际的条例。
345	And just finally, one very quick point, which concerns really how	最后,一个非常快速的点, 这真正关系到如何
346	AI trains in a status quo using different sets of data.	AI列车使用不同的数据集,处于现状.
347	We're seeing an emergence of a data	我们看到有数据出现
348	firewall between China and the rest of the world.	中国与世界其他地区之间的防火墙.
349	And a logical corollary implication here,	和逻辑的必然含义在这里,
350	especially with regards to AI trained in America, is that much of the data that the AI is currently	特别是在美国培训的大赦国际方面,大多数数据是大赦国际目前掌握的。
351	being fed with is likely to reflect data collected from, you know, all corners of the world,	被喂食可能反映从,你知道, 从世界各地收集的数据,
352	barring China.	包括中国。
353	Now, this may not be an issue when applied to pretty innocuous usages like, you know,	现在,这也许不是一个问题当应用到漂亮的无害的习惯,比如,你知道,
354	using AI to program or to determine traffic flows or to identify potential pockets of the city for	利用AI来规划或确定交通流量,或确定该城市潜在的小区,以便
355	urban renewal and redevelopment.	城市更新与再开发.
356	You know, where do you plant trees?	你知道,你在哪里植树?
357	Where best to plant trees?	哪里最好种树?
358	But once AI is applied to questions that are likely to involve more foreign or externally	但是,一旦大赦国际被应用到可能涉及更多外国或外部的问题上,
359	oriented decisions, for instance, do I control and how should I identify, you know, who's a	例如,有导向的决定,我是否控制,我应如何确定,你知道,谁是
360	for instance, through the South China Seas, the East Seas, and the Japan Sea, so on and so forth,	例如通过南海,东海,日本海等海域,
361	we can easily anticipate contexts where the data that's being fed into the AI is, unfortunately,	我们很容易预料到数据输入人工智能的情况
362	in virtue of the echo chamber from which it's drawn, going to indirectly lead to potentially	将间接导致可能发生
363	dangerous behavior, so that antithetical to the interests of the other, whether it be Chinese AI	危险的行为,所以与对方的利益相反, 无论是中国AI
364	targeting American citizens and American or American data trained AI targeting Chinese citizens.	针对美国公民和美国或美国的数据,培训了针对中国公民的AI.
365	So what can we do then, right?	那么我们该怎么办,对不对?
366	This is why coordination is so important.	这就是为什么协调如此重要。
367	This is why both	这就是为什么两个
368	sides need to talk, as opposed to not engage in dialogue, not engage in discussions that are very	各方需要对话,而不是进行对话,而不是进行讨论,因为这种讨论非常严重。
369	much necessary, even if unpleasant.	非常必要,即使不愉快。
370	Sure, talking with the other side may be an uncomfortable	当然,跟对方说话可能很不舒服
371	experience, but it's a necessary experience for which all hands must be on deck.	经验,但它是一个必要的经验,所有的人必须在甲板上。
372	So that's my	所以这是我的
373	AI问题。
374	Thank you.	谢谢
375	Yeah, I think, you know, of course, you know, AI can be applied to many,	是啊,我想,你知道, 当然,你知道,AI可以应用到很多,
376	you know, good aspects, but I think, Brian, you know, you are basically talking about,	你知道,好的方面, 但我认为,布莱恩, 你知道,你基本上谈论,
377	if you think about, you know, the last Cold War, you know, basically, it's all about nuclear,	如果你想到,你知道, 上次冷战, 你知道,基本上,这是所有关于核,
378	right, you know, how many missiles you have, you know, and then let's compete, you know,	好吧,你知道,你有多少导弹, 你知道,然后让我们竞争,你知道,
379	let's have a content, let's compete.	让我们有一个内容, 让我们竞争。
380	But I think that, you know, the future war scenario,	但我认为,你知道, 未来的战争情景,
381	you know, will be more AI driven.	你知道,会有更多的AI驱动。
382	I think the impact, you know, could be more disastrous,	我认为影响,你知道, 可能更灾难性,
383	you know, than, you know, just to drop, you know, some bombs and hope that that will never happen.	你知道,比,你知道,只是投一些炸弹,你知道, 希望永远不会发生。
384	But you, I heard you also mentioned the term, you call the word, I think currently you already	但是你,我听说你也提到这个词, 你叫这个词,我认为现在你已经
385	feel like we are leading a so-called post-globalization era.	感觉我们正领导着所谓的全球化后时代。
386	I think, you know,	我觉得,你知道,
387	this might be debatable, you know, I think we still have some believers in globalization,	这也许值得商榷,你知道, 我认为我们仍有一些相信全球化,
388	you know, you just can't believe, you know, how fast the world has changed.	你知道,你只是不能相信,你知道, 多么快的世界已经改变。
389	I think,	我觉得
390	even back to my time at Yale, like about a decade ago, you know, we still have a lot of scholars,	甚至回到我在耶鲁的时代就像十年前我们还有很多学者
391	you know, try to advocating for globalization, right.	试着倡导全球化,对吧?
392	And then, and I think, you know,	然后,我认为,你知道,
393	the former presidents, like, you know, from Clinton to Obama, you know, they are pretty much,	前总统,比如,你知道, 从克林顿到奥巴马, 你知道,他们几乎是,
394	globalization, you know, big fans for globalization, right.	全球化,你知道, 全球化的大粉丝,对。
395	So what happened to	那么,发生了什么事
396	globalization?	全球化?
397	我还记得Maurice Chung 他刚宣布
398	that, you know, globalization is dead.	你知道,全球化已经不复存在。
399	And he kind of also blamed the US, right.	他也怪美国,对吗?
400	You know,	你知道吗,
401	this is also, you know, very much about geopolitics, you know, supply chain is also part of geopolitics,	这也是,你知道, 非常关于地缘政治, 你知道,供应链也是地缘政治的一部分,
402	right.	对
403	Maybe you can help us to, you know, get, you know, a little bit deeper into it, you know,	也许你可以帮助我们, 你知道,得到,你知道, 有一点点深入,你知道,
404	to see where, you know, is globalization dead?	看看全球化在哪里死去?
405	Or, you know, what does post-globalization really	或者,你知道,什么是后全球化真的
406	means?	什麽意思?
407	No, thank you very much, George.	不,非常感谢,乔治。
408	Look, to be more precise, I didn't intend to say that	听着,更确切一点,我并不想说
409	globalization is dead, simplicity.	全球化是枯萎的、简单的。
410	I was more suggesting that globalization, as we knew it,	我更想说,全球化,正如我们所知,
411	in a sort of post-Cold War, you know, golden 30 years of unbridled globalization, and also	在冷战后, 黄金三十年的全球化,
412	cross-regional, cross-continental interconnectivity, that era might well be transitioning into a	跨区域、跨洲的互联互通,这个时代很可能正在过渡到
413	different modus operandi of globalization, a different paradigm of globalization.	全球化的不同工作方式,一种不同的全球化模式。
414	And if I were to, if I could draw upon some of the more buzzword laden pieces I've written in the past,	如果我愿意的话,如果我能借鉴一些我过去写过的更响亮的作品,
415	I made the argument for peace for a Chinese-based think tank, China-based think tank, that essentially	我为一个以中国为基地的智囊团,中国为基地的智囊团, 提出了和平的主张,
416	what we're seeing here is the shift of the world from this sort of unbridled globalization with	我们在这里看到的是世界从这种无节制全球化的转变
417	ups and downs towards a more regionalized globalization, okay?	走向更区域化的全球化,好吗?
418	So a form of regionalized	所以是一种区域化的形式
419	globalization that features, broadly speaking, more balkanization and fragmentation between	全球化的特点是,从广义上讲,巴尔干化和分散化程度更高。
420	different regional blocks, but also more consolidation and more integration,	不同区域块,但也有更多的整合和整合,
421	quite opening up selectively, and also taking in migrants, taking in labor and talents selectively	有选择地开放并接纳移民有选择地吸收劳动力和人才
422	within regions.	在区域内。
423	So if you look at inter-Asian unity and migrant flows and capital flows,	所以,如果你看亚洲之间的团结和移民流动和资本流动,
424	sure, COVID certainly threw a spanner in the works there, but at the end of the day,	当然,COVID肯定扔一个扳手那里的工作,但最后,
425	ASEAN is becoming a more united, you know, slowly and steadily entity.	东盟正在逐渐成为一个更加团结和稳定的实体。
426	And similarly,	同样,
427	looking at America, for instance, where its largest trade partners are no longer China,	以美国为例,美国最大的贸易伙伴不再是中国,
428	but are in fact on the Americas, with Mexico taking a surprising top spot, a top seat recently.	但事实上是在美洲, 墨西哥最近占据了一个令人惊讶的顶点,
429	It wouldn't be surprising for those who've been tracking trade flows and the rerouting of it	追踪贸易流量改变贸易路线的人不会觉得奇怪
430	since Trump's disastrous trade war, but you know, those who know would know that ultimately the	自从特朗普的灾难性贸易战争, 但你知道,那些知道的人会知道,最终
431	Americas have again become a greater and more tightly knit trading block in the aftermath of	美洲再次成为一个更大的、更紧密的针织贸易街区,
432	the pandemic.	这个流行病。
433	So I don't want to suggest, I don't want to give off an impression that I think	所以我不想建议, 我不想给人一种印象,我认为
434	globalization is done, you know, it's cooked.	全球化已经完成,你知道,它已经熟了。
435	Instead, I'm just suggesting that it's	我只是建议
436	metamorphosizing into a different form.	变形成不同的形态.
437	And it's imperative that we recognize that, as opposed to	我们必须承认这一点,而不是
438	living in a sort of la la la narrative that all is well after the pandemic, you know, countries and	生活在一种 la la la 的描述, 所有的事情都是在大流行病之后, 你知道,国家和
439	regions are opening up, and they're going to be back to being friends with one another.	地区正在开放,它们将重新成为彼此的朋友。
440	That's	这是
441	said, two quick comments here.	说两句话
442	And the first comment is essentially, in understanding,	第一个评论基本上是,在理解,
443	you know, what happens to or what is going on with global geopolitics, we must first	你知道,什么发生或正在发生全球地缘政治,我们必须首先
444	look towards domestic politics.	面向国内政治。
445	And if we look at what's occurred in advanced liberal democracies	如果我们看看先进自由民主国家的情况
446	over the past six to seven years, Brexit in the UK, Donald Trump was elected in the US, the rise of	在过去的六到七年中,英国的布雷克西特,唐纳德·特朗普在美国当选,崛起
447	this Marine Le Pen, respectively, and some of the leading European economies.	陆战队和一些主要欧洲经济体
448	Now we've got,	现在我们有了,
449	you know, in the seat of the premiership in Italy, Meloni, who's also a populist,	你知道,在意大利的首演席位,梅洛尼, 他也是一个民粹主义者,
450	but she was building off really the five star party, and gears on end really of the populist	但是她真的在建五星级派对和末端的齿轮真正的民粹主义者
451	search first from the left and then the right, right in Italy.	先从左边,然后从右边, 在意大利。
452	So if there's one thing that	所以如果有一样东西
453	we can say in common about, you know, all of these advanced democracies, so to speak, is that those	我们可以共同说,你知道,所有这些先进的民主国家, 可以说,那些
454	have lost out from a combination of globalisation, mechanisation, as well as skewed economic	全球化、机械化和扭曲的经济
455	structures favouring high end services at the expense of the manufacturing sectors, those who	支持高端服务而牺牲制造业部门,
456	have been left behind have sought to come back, you know, for vengeance.	被抛在脑后想要回来报仇
457	And it is understandable,	这是可以理解的,
458	I don't want to say this in a derogative manner, because it's not.	我不想用贬低性的方式说,因为它不是。
459	Many of the folks living in the	很多人都住在这里
460	white, the blue collar, white, Anglo-Christian man, you know, who's just lost his job,	白人,蓝领,白人, 盎格鲁-基督教人, 你知道,谁刚刚失业,
461	and has not been able to find a job due to hysteresis and also changing economic structures,	并且由于歇斯底里症和不断变化的经济结构而无法找到工作,
462	they have a right to feel aggrieved.	他们有权感到痛苦。
463	It is not their fault, per se, that the economy has changed	经济的改变本身并不是他们的错
464	and the elite have forgotten about them.	而精英们却忘记了他们。
465	But what unfortunately has played out for them, and also	但不幸的是, 为他们,还有
466	the rest of the world, is that their rage, their incandescent rage, fueled the rise of a generation	他们的愤怒白炽的愤怒激起了一代人的崛起
467	of politicians that pretended to be ostensibly anti-establishment, and yet were in fact members	那些表面上是反政权的政客,事实上是
468	of the establishment themselves.	企业本身。
469	I mean, Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg, all of them	我的意思是,唐纳德・特朗普,奈杰尔・法拉吉,雅各布・里斯 -莫格,所有他们
470	were partaking and beneficiaries that had profited off the establishment in the past, Boris Johnson	博里斯·约翰逊,过去从公司获利的受益者
471	as well.	临Τ
472	And yet for them, they realised that the guarantee, the secret recipe for them to hold onto	然而,他们意识到保证,秘密的秘方他们坚持
473	power is to stoke xenophobia, is to push for isolationism, is advanced selective decoupling	权力是煽动仇外心理,推动孤立主义,是选择性的高级脱钩
474	and rerouting of jobs, such that ultimately it was the originals, the so-called natives who would	并改变工作路线,以致最终是原始人,即所谓的原住民。
475	benefit from their efforts.	从他们的努力中受益。
476	It didn't matter if their efforts had actually succeeded, it didn't	无论他们的努力是否成功,都无所谓
477	matter if Donald Trump in fact delivered upon the wall, he didn't, but what did matter was they were	如果唐纳德·特朗普真的在墙上送货他没有但重要的是他们
478	in power, and their rising to power most certainly catalyzed a trend that had already started really	他们的崛起无疑催生了已经真正开始的趋势
479	in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which was essentially a push towards more emphasis	全球金融危机之后,这基本上是推动更加强调
480	upon the nation, upon the domestic, upon those who were on the inside as opposed to the outside.	以国为主,以内为主,以内为主,以外为主.
481	And that was when economic and also political nationalism began to surge, the early 2010s,	2010年代初,经济民族主义和政治民族主义也开始猛增,
482	and thus explained really a lot of the more bizarre events, you know, in the eyes of those	并因此解释了很多更怪异的事件, 你知道,在那些的眼睛
483	who are not perhaps trained, they would find them very bizarre, you know, why would Britain vote for,	那些没有受过训练的人会发现他们非常奇怪英国为什么要投票支持
484	you know, basically quitting a bloc that had enriched it by and large, especially the poorer	你知道,基本上放弃了一个集团已经丰富了它总体上,尤其是穷人
485	nations and parts of Britain, you know, over the past two decades or decade and a bit, you know,	在过去二十年或十年里英国的民族和部分地区,你知道,
486	why would folks in the United States vote for a president who as it turned out would violate	为何美国民众投票支持总统,
487	constitutional constraints and seek to overturn a democratic election, right?	宪法限制并试图推翻民主选举,对不对?
488	This is something that	这件事情
489	we must bear in mind, that domestic politics, spurred by the outcomes of globalisation,	我们必须铭记,在全球化结果的推动下,国内政治,
490	mechanisation and also smorgasbord of other factors, contributed towards geopolitical	其他因素的机械化和smorgasbord促成了地缘政治
491	instability and uncertainty.	不稳定和不确定。
492	So that is the first comment when it comes to what happened	所以,这是第一个评论当涉及到发生了什么
493	with globalisation.	与全球化。
494	And a second comment, of course, is that the more, you know,	第二点,当然是,你知道,
495	questionable practices and more questionable decision-making heuristics of leaders that we	令人怀疑的做法以及更令人怀疑的领导人决策热情
496	saw last saw in the 20th century, in the mid-20th century or prior to that, the kind of sort of	在20世纪中叶或20世纪前,
497	world war two, it made a comeback, it made a strong comeback in certain political leaders	第二次世界大战,它又回来了, 在某些政治领袖中,它又回来了
498	in a world.	在一个世界上。
499	I'm not going to name them explicitly, but I will just say that it was the desire to	我不打算明确地说出他们的名字, 但我会说,这是想要
500	expand and a desire for them to establish their own domestic political legacy that led them to	并渴望他们建立自己的国内政治遗产,从而实现
501	initiate invasions and military encroachments for which their country is unable to pay the price and	发动侵略和军事入侵,而国家无力为此付出代价,
502	people is suffering and bearing the brunt of, you know, ultimately.	人们正在受苦受难,最终首当其冲。
503	And as a result of the rise of	也因为...
504	militarism, this defensive sense of militarisation, arming up countries, turning them into, you know,	军国主义,这种军事化的防御意识,武装各国,把它们变成,你知道,
505	battlefields, so to speak, what we're seeing over the past two to three years is the rise of kinetic	说到战场过去两三年我们看到的是动力学的上升
506	warfare and hot warfare that has disrupted supply chains, led to sanctions and counter sanctions	破坏供应链、导致制裁和反制裁的战争和热战
507	and forced countries to take sides even when they shouldn't and clearly don't want to take sides.	并迫使国家采取立场即使他们不应该和显然不想采取立场。
508	The net outcome, of course, then, is this realisation that because of so-called national	当然,净结果就是这种实现,因为所谓的国家
509	security considerations, it is vital for countries to have access to their own strategic supply	安全考虑,各国获得自己的战略供应至关重要
510	chains, own strategic raw materials, right?	连锁店,拥有战略原材料,对吧?
511	And that's also why America's chatting about shifting	这也是为什么美国在谈论转移
512	TSMC or rather building a TSMC plant in Arizona, I believe.	我相信是TSMC或者在亚利桑那州建造TSMC工厂
513	I mean, good luck, good luck to America	我是说祝你好运祝美国好运
514	with that.	还有那个
515	I'm not convinced it's going to work out, but, you know, never say never.	我并不相信这会成功, 但是,你知道,从来没有说永远。
516	Just as, for	就像,为了
517	instance, when the CHIPS Act was passed, it was expected that that would purportedly cripple	例如,当《CHIPS法》通过时,预计这据称会致残。
518	China's ability to produce, you know, CHIPS of its own.	中国的能力,你知道, CHIPS自己的。
519	And yet, you know, just a few weeks ago,	然而,你知道,仅仅几个星期前,
520	we saw what a Huawei mate and also China's ability to produce, seemingly sustainably, at 14 am,	我们看到华威的配方以及中国在14点生产的能力似乎是可持续的
521	that it's managed to overcome many of the hurdles that were slapped upon it.	它克服了许多被打中的障碍
522	So we shall see what's	所以,我们会看到什么
523	going to come out of the upcoming semiconductor bill, you know, the second one proposed by the	将会从即将到来的半导体法案中出来, 你知道,第二个由
524	Congress, but that's sort of essentially a topic for another question.	国会,但这基本上是另一个问题的主题。
525	But yes, so these are my	但是,是的,所以这些是我的
526	thoughts on globalization and the undoing of it.	关于全球化及其消除的想法。
527	Thank you.	谢谢
528	Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned, you know,	是啊,我很高兴你提到,你知道,
529	TSMC's plan, you know, to now set up the plant in Arizona.	TSMC的计划就是在亚利桑那州建立工厂
530	I understand from my Taiwanese friends,	我从台湾朋友那里知道
531	you know, the progress was, I was a sucker, but there are a lot of challenges.	你知道,进展是,我是一个傻瓜, 但有很多挑战。
532	And they also faced	他们也面对
533	a lot of opposition from, you know, the local unions, you know, as you said, you know, maybe,	很多反对的地方工会,你知道, 你知道,正如你说的, 你知道,也许,
534	you know, initially, you know, the Biden administration thought, you know, you know,	你知道,起初,你知道, 拜登行政当局认为, 你知道,你知道,
535	this is purely FDI, right?	这是纯粹的外国直接投资,对不对?
536	You've got the plan to set up and then you realize that it's actually	你有计划,然后你意识到,事实上
537	also about immigration, technology transfer, you know, so things are getting more and more complicated.	还有移民、技术转让,所以事情变得越来越复杂。
538	And you also mentioned the Huawei.	你还提到华威了
539	Which phone do you use, Brian?	你用哪部手机,布莱恩?
540	Full disclosure, I use Samsung.	完全公开,我用三星
541	I do like the ringtone.	我喜欢铃声
542	I find it very rejuvenating.	我发现它很有活力
543	And whenever I listen to it,	每当我听它,
544	I feel elated.	我觉得很高兴。
545	So it's great music.	所以这是伟大的音乐。
546	Right, right.	对,对。
547	I think the Huawei case, you know, the new	我觉得华伟的案子,你知道的,新的
548	MatePro launch, you know, is also a very interesting case to look into in terms of,	MatePro的发射,你知道, 也是一个非常有趣的案例来研究,
549	you know, globalization.	你知道,全球化。
550	The Americans thought, you know, with all the sanctions, you know,	美国人认为,你知道, 与所有的制裁,你知道,
551	chipmaking must be dead.	芯片制造必须死。
552	But somehow, you know, it's not like, you know, the same generation of,	但不知怎的,你知道, 它不是像, 你知道,同一代,
553	you know, Apple's, you know, chip technology.	你知道,苹果的,你知道,芯片技术。
554	But still, it was a surprise, you know, for a lot of,	但是,这是一个惊喜,你知道, 对于很多,
555	you know, especially for the politicians in the US.	特别是美国政客
556	So that's a nice story.	这故事不错
557	By the way,	对了
558	I want to say, you know, our staff at the Yale Center of Beijing also, you know, helped to,	我想说,你知道,我们的工作人员在北京耶鲁中心也,你知道,帮助,
559	select, you know, collect and selecting some questions from the members and the audience.	选择、收集并选择会员和观众的一些问题。
560	You know, the globalization question is also, yeah, one of the top questions, you know, coming.	你知道,全球化的问题也是, 是啊,一个顶尖的问题,你知道,即将到来。
561	I'm not going to name everyone, but I think the name is Si Wen coming from Chengdu Normal	我不给大家起名,但我想叫思文,来自成都
562	University.	大学.
563	And there were some other friends, you know, who asked the same questions.	还有一些朋友问了同样的问题。
564	So those who	所以谁
565	got picked, you know, you will get a small gift.	被选中,你知道, 你会得到一个小礼物。
566	I'm pretty sure, you know, Carol's team will take	我敢肯定,你知道, 卡罗尔的团队会采取
567	the logistics.	后勤
568	So I have one more question, but, you know, hopefully, you know, I think people	我还有一个问题,但是,你知道, 希望,你知道,我想人们
569	online, you know, if you can just type your question in the chat box, you know, we can see	在线上,你知道,如果你可以输入你的问题在聊天框,你知道,我们可以看到
570	and then we can also pick up, you know, questions from live, you know, to ask Brian.	然后我们也可以从现场回答问布莱恩的问题
571	My sort of,	我有点...
572	you know, not my last question, but, you know, from my part, you know, then we should open to	你知道,不是我的最后一个问题, 但是,你知道,从我的角度,你知道, 然后,我们应该打开
573	floor, you know, please in the meantime, you know, please, you know, do type a question in the chat	地板,你知道的,请同时,你知道,请, 你知道,请,你知道,
574	box.	页:1
575	So we can see is, of course, you know, what happened, you know, just over the past few days	所以我们可以看到,当然,你知道, 发生了什么事,你知道, 就在过去几天
576	in Israel, in Gaza, you know, it feels like a very far away, right?	在以色列,在加沙,你知道, 它感觉像一个非常遥远的,对不对?
577	You know, how many times,	你知道, 多少次,
578	you know, we will see a story in like, you know, in the Chinese media, right?	你知道,我们会看到一个故事像,你知道,在中国媒体,对不对?
579	You know, the meat,	你知道吗,肉,
580	the top headlines will be about Middle East.	头条新闻是关于中东的
581	But, you know, there are growing discussions and	但是,你知道, 有越来越多的讨论和
582	concerns about, you know, how the whole Israel situation will affect, you know, more, you know,	关于,你知道,整个以色列局势将如何影响,你知道,更多的,你知道,
583	make geopolitics even more tricky, right?	使地缘政治更加棘手,对不对?
584	We already got to Ukraine, and now you got to Israel,	我们已经到了乌克兰现在你到了以色列
585	and we don't even know whether Iran will be dragged into, you know, broaden the conflicts or not.	我们甚至不知道伊朗是否会被拖入, 你知道,扩大冲突。
586	It doesn't seem so right now in terms of intelligence when it comes to Iran.	在涉及伊朗时,在情报方面似乎并不如此。
587	Right, yeah.	没错
588	It doesn't seem that Iran was involved or Tehran was in a no, I don't think so.	似乎伊朗没有卷入,
589	Right, yeah, it will be unthinkable, unimaginable, you know, if Iran and Syria,	是的,如果伊朗和叙利亚...
590	you know, all got, you know, dragged into, but, you know, Brian, you can also share your views,	你知道,所有的,你知道,拖进, 但是,你知道,布莱恩,你也可以分享你的观点,
591	you know, how you view, you know, particularly, you know, that, you know, we, you know, we,	你知道,你如何看待, 你知道,特别是, 你知道,你知道,我们,你知道,我们,
592	especially in the context of, you know, Beijing, you know, more like the Eastern Asian part of	特别是北京,你知道, 更像东亚部分
593	geopolitics, you know, what's your view, you know, what's your take on the Israel situation?	地缘政治,你知道,你有什么看法, 你知道,你对以色列的情况有什么看法?
594	How will that affect the US-China relations, right?	那会如何影响中美关系?
595	You know, here's my bet.	这是我的赌注
596	I think the	我觉得
597	she will go to APEC to shake hands with President Biden.	她将前往亚太经合组织与拜登总统握手。
598	I share your, I share your prediction.	我同意你的预言
599	I agree with you.	我同意你的观点。
600	Yeah, I think so.	是的,我想是这样。
601	Okay.	摆
602	Yeah, no, that will be, that will be good news, you know, for the, for the world,	是啊,不,这将是, 这将是一个好消息,你知道, 对于世界,
603	you know, otherwise, you know, people will guess what's going on.	你知道,否则,你知道, 人们会猜到发生了什么。
604	But so when the two	但是,当两者
605	leaders meet together, you know, will the Israel situation, you know, becomes a little bit,	领导人会聚在一起,你知道, 以色列的情况,你知道, 会变成一点点,
606	you know, kind of a new challenge for US-China relations.	你知道,一种新的挑战中美关系。
607	We already have the	我们已经有了
608	questions coming in, feel free to type in the chat box.	提问进来后,可以随意在聊天框中输入.
609	But Brian, you can	但布莱恩,你可以
610	address the Israel issue first.	首先讨论以色列问题。
611	So what I was going to say is, you know,	所以我想说的是,你知道,
612	the situation in Israel right now does actually feel quite personal to me, not,	现在以色列的局势对我来说确实很私人,不是,
613	not because I know anyone directly involved, because some of my very good friends have	不是因为我认识直接涉及的人因为我的一些好朋友
614	had families and friends who are abducted by Hamas or Hamas affiliates on the earlier	早年被哈马斯或哈马斯附属组织绑架的家人和朋友
615	days of this week.	这周的日子。
616	So it's been a very difficult week for some of my friends in Israel.	因此,对于我在以色列的一些朋友来说,这是一个非常困难的一周.
617	And it's obviously been a very difficult week for the innocent people of both Palestine	对巴勒斯坦的无辜人民来说这周很艰难
618	and Israel, who have been instrumentalized and turned into tools, weapons, casualties,	和以色列,他们被工具化,变成工具、武器、伤亡,
619	collateral damage by politicians, political leaders, so on and so forth.	政治人物、政治领袖等等的附带损害。
620	So I genuinely	所以,我真诚的
621	think that we need to, you know, take, I would personally take this moment to say, I just hope	认为我们需要,你知道, 采取,我个人采取这一刻说,我只是希望
622	the conflict can be resolved soon, but I do not think it will.	冲突可以很快解决,但我认为它不会解决。
623	Okay, so I'll be frank,	好吧,所以我会说实话,
624	I do not think this conflict will cease.	我认为这场冲突不会停止。
625	What we're seeing from Israel, you know,	我们从以色列看到的,你知道,
626	the talk in Israel that I'm hearing right now is that this is their version of 9-11.	我在以色列听到的谈话是这是他们911的版本
627	And Bibi Netanyahu has formed his own unity government with Benny Gantz and other members	而比比·内塔尼亚胡也与班尼·甘茨和其他成员组成了自己的团结政府.
628	of the opposition, and a consensus across the spectrum in Israel, which is kind of rare,	和以色列国内的共识,这是罕见的,
629	also to be expected, is that they must and will indeed retaliate.	同样值得期待的是,它们必须而且确实会报复。
630	So I could only posit that I'm	所以我只能假设我是
631	not convinced there's a clear and concrete plan for action as to what exactly such retaliation	并不相信有明确而具体的行动计划关于什么是这种报复
632	would constitute or involve.	将构成或涉及。
633	But then again, to be fair, these are extraordinary circumstances.	但公平地说,这是非常的情况。
634	So that's just my sort of high level and initial thought in response to your question.	所以,这只是我那种高层次和初步的想法对于你的问题。
635	With that	用这个
636	I'll finally apply them to sign a US relations before addressing some of the floor questions	我最后会用它们签下美国关系然后再回答一些问题
637	there.	这里
638	The first is that it is apparent that at least certain segments of the Hamas leadership	第一是,哈马斯领导人中至少有某些部分显然
639	were unnerved by the recent moves in the Arabic world and also the Middle East, where through	对阿拉伯世界和中东最近的行动感到不放心,因为中东和中东最近发生了许多事件。
640	whether it be the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, or indeed the	无论是沙特阿拉伯与伊朗关系正常化,还是事实上,
641	expansion and prospective expansion of the Abrahamic cause, which would almost all but certain,	亚伯拉罕事业的扩张和预期的扩张几乎可以肯定
642	at least on a symbolic and principal level, draw Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the rest of the	沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和其余国家至少从象征和主要层面划出
643	signatories to the agreement closer together.	协定的签署国更密切地合作。
644	So there's a real sense of a threat and also	所以有真正的威胁感,还有
645	a perceived jeopardization of the status and bargaining power.	认为损害地位和讨价还价的能力。
646	None of this justifies at all	这些都毫无道理
647	what Hamas did, but I'm just trying to make sense of the rationale behind what is increasingly	哈马斯做了什么,但我只是试图理解背后的理由越来越
648	seeming to be a Hamas initiated as opposed to Tehran commanded and instructed a rogue attack	似乎是一个哈马斯发起,而不是德黑兰指挥并指挥了一次无赖袭击
649	on innocent Israeli civilians.	无辜的以色列平民。
650	So that's the first quick comment.	所以这是第一个快速的评论。
651	Secondly, if we look at the actual	第二,如果我们看看实际
652	sort of hands and resources of America right now, I'd say America is pretty overstretched.	美国的手和资源现在,我想说,美国相当过度紧张。
653	You've got congressmen, you know, mostly in the Republican Party, namely those who just managed	你们有国会议员,你知道, 大部分在共和党, 即那些刚刚成功的人
654	spectacularly overthrow their own speaker alongside the Democrats.	和民主党一起推翻他们自己的演说家
655	You've got Republicans	你们有共和党人
656	calling for a reduction in American aid to Ukraine.	呼吁减少美国对乌克兰的援助。
657	You've also seen more isolationist	你也见过比较孤立的人
658	voices from both sides of the island, America, advocating the view that America should pull	来自美国两岸的声音, 主张美国应该拉
659	back from its military presence abroad.	从国外的军队中回来
660	And now you've got this, you know, really difficult and	现在你有这个,你知道, 非常困难和
661	treacherous situation going on in Israel.	以色列境内正在发生危险局势。
662	And frankly, you know, we could argue that the	坦率地说,你知道, 我们可以争论
663	and also the intelligence establishment and the army is basically fighting a two-pronged	情报机构和军队基本上双管齐下
664	and two-battlefront battle.	还有两战两胜
665	Now the question is, you know, what does that mean in terms of	现在的问题是,你知道,这意味着什么
666	Sino-U.S. relations?	中美关系?
667	Some would say, well, this is a good thing for Sino-U.S. tensions because	有人会说,这对中美关系紧张是件好事,因为
668	at the very least it means that if the Americans' hands are full, then there's less time for them	至少这意味着如果美国人的手满了那么他们的时间就更少了
669	to provoke and, you know, instigate tensions or so they think, right?	挑起和,你知道,引发紧张或这样他们想,对不对?
670	So amongst these folks,	因此,在这些人中,
671	they tend to see America as the provocateur and China as being on their defensive.	他们往往把美国视为挑衅者,中国则视为其防御者。
672	Whereas as	而作为
673	also the other view that because America is so distracted right now, Beijing might seize upon	另一种观点认为,由于美国现在如此分心,北京可能会抓住
674	the opportunity to make certain moves that would further complicate the matter.	有机会采取某些行动,使问题更加复杂。
675	Now I must say I	现在我必须说
676	do not agree with the second view.	不同意第二种观点。
677	I don't see leaders in Beijing right now, and you guys would	我现在没有看到领导人在北京,你们会
678	know better than me because you're on the ground there.	比我更清楚因为你在地面上
679	I don't see leaders in Beijing right now	我现在没有看到北京的领导人
680	as wanting to open up another battle front, another sort of front on which they'd be in	想要打开另一条战线, 另一条战线,他们会在
681	an antagonistic relationship with the U.S.	与美国的敌对关系
682	In fact, we look at the recent trips, the slew of	事实上,我们审视了最近的旅行,
683	visits from American businessmen and cabinet officials and also just recently in the Senate	美国商人和内阁官员的访问,以及最近参议院的访问
684	majority, the leader, you know, Chuck Schumer, it's clear to me that Beijing is in a mood and	多数人,领袖,你知道的,查克・舒默, 很明显,北京的心情和
685	is looking for opportunities to, you know, if possible, lower the temperature in a room.	是寻找机会,你知道,如果可能, 降低一个房间的温度。
686	So I	所以说
687	do not buy that line of argument.	不要相信这种争论。
688	But whereas for the other view that, you know, Sino-American	但对于另一种观点,你知道,中美
689	relations would therefore improve because America needs to focus on Israel and Palestine, I'm also	因此关系会改善因为美国需要关注以色列和巴勒斯坦,我也
690	not convinced by that either because ultimately what we're seeing coming from America today	也不是因为我们今天看到的是从美国来的
691	in relation to China is this growing consensus that China is a competitor, is a strategic rival,	与中国相比,中国是一个竞争对手,是战略对手,
692	and where there is and there are differences, you know, across the board between, say, more hawkish	哪里有,哪里有区别,你知道, 横跨所有,比如说, 更鹰派
693	and neoconservative individuals and say you've got them on one end, actually not one end,	和新保守主义的个人,并说你已经得到了他们在一端,实际上不是一端,
694	the furthest end are those ideological zealots, right, who have religious or Catholic or whatever	最远的结局是那些思想狂热者,对吗,他们有宗教或天主教,或者什么的
695	they call it reasons to just systemically want to annihilate and dismantle China and to, you know,	他们称之为原因只是系统化地想要消灭和摧毁中国而且你知道,
696	turn China back into what it was 60 years ago.	把中国变成60年前的样子
697	And then you've got the neocons and the military	还有新人和军人
698	defense hawks and the security hawks, perhaps best epitomized by Gallagher, whereas the extreme	防御鹰和保安鹰, 也许最好的缩写为Gallagher, 而极端
699	end is perhaps personified by Mike Pompeo.	结局也许由迈克·庞佩奥化身.
700	So you've got Pompeo, you've got Gallagher,	所以,你得到了庞佩奥, 你有加拉格,
701	and you've got a bunch of, you know, previously pretty pro-engagement, increasingly disillusioned	和你有一堆,你知道, 之前相当支持订婚, 越来越失望
702	skeptics, the likes of, say, Bonnie Glaser, Orville Schell, and maybe, you know, some would say	怀疑者比如邦妮·格拉泽奥维尔·舍尔也许有人会说
703	they could put Jake Sullivan in their basket.	他们可以把杰克·苏利文放在篮子里
704	And then further to the end of being more pro-engagement,	然后,在更亲近的结局,
705	you've got the old guard and old voices, you know, who say that you must engage China because firstly,	你有老守卫和老声音,你知道, 谁说,你必须参与中国因为首先,
706	we like China, or secondly, we like doing business with China, or thirdly, because they genuinely do	我们喜欢中国,或者说第二,我们喜欢与中国做生意,或者说第三,因为他们真正这样做
707	not see, you know, the kind of antagonistic rhetoric launched towards China as productive.	没有看到,你知道,那种对立言论向中国发起是富有成效的。
708	This is the spectrum that we see in America today, but the Overton window is predominantly	这就是我们今天在美国看到的光谱, 但Overton窗口主要是
709	clustered around, you know, and wedged between those who are saying, you know, China is probably	环绕着,你知道, 和那些说, 你知道,中国可能是
710	someone or some entity we ought to be cautious about, and those who say let's destroy the country	某个人或某个实体我们应该谨慎, 那些说让我们摧毁国家的人
711	altogether.	完全没有。
712	So in short, there's not much room for pro-engagement, constructive dialogue, at least	因此,简言之,没有太多的空间促进参与,建设性对话,至少
713	on a US side of anything.	在美国一边的任何东西。
714	I do think that, you know, the Chinese MFA and also the foreign policy	我确实认为,你知道, 中国外交部和外交政策
715	in China have been more receptive towards dialogue in principle, even though in practice,	在中国,尽管实际上,对话在原则上是比较容易接受的,
716	of course, with the recent sort of, you know, curbing or the restrictions concerning meetings	当然,随着最近对会议的限制
717	and visits of foreigners and meetings with foreigners and limits through the channels	外国人的探访、与外国人的会晤和通过渠道的限制
718	of communication, including restrictions on certain folks leaving the country, it's been	包括限制某些人出国
719	in practice much harder for people in China to conduct track-through dialogues with their	实际上,对于中国人民来说,与其进行跟踪对话更为困难。
720	counterparts abroad.	在国外的同行。
721	But by and large, I'd say there's more appetite for dialogue from China	但总而言之,我说中国更喜欢对话
722	than in the US or from the US, so to speak.	比美国或美国都好
723	So in any case, all of this is to say one,	所以无论如何,所有这一切都是说,
724	you know, broad point that the dynamics of Sino-US interactions will not hinge much, if at all,	你知道,广义的一点,中美互动的动态将没有多少联系,如果,
725	on the trajectory of the Israel-Palestine conflict.	以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突的轨道。
726	And with that, I think we have	有了这个,我想我们
727	time to look at the questions on the floor now.	现在该看看地上的问题了
728	So thank you for that question, George.	谢谢你的问候,乔治
729	Yeah, no, I also feel like one point you make, you know, any crisis could be also an opportunity.	是啊,不,我感觉你提出的一点, 你知道,任何危机也可能是一个机会。
730	I think the US still has some expectation on China to be a responsible big nation,	我认为,美国仍然对中国成为一个负责任的大国抱有某种期望,
731	to take up some responsibilities.	承担一些责任。
732	I remember a lot of people compared what happened in Israel	我还记得很多人比起在以色列发生的事情
733	with 9-1-1 in the US.	在美国9 -1 -1
734	But you remember when 9-1-1 happened, President Jiang Zemin	江泽民主席,你记得发生九一一事件时
735	was one of the first state heads to give George W. Bush a call to send the condolence and show	是最早给乔治・W・布什打电话致悼词和显示
736	support for the war on terrorism.	支持反恐战争。
737	That made a very significant impact on the US-China relations.	这对中美关系产生了非常重大的影响.
738	So this is also an amendment.	这也是个修正案。
739	It's not an opportunity for Beijing to think a bit	这不是北京考虑的机会
740	about the new approach in terms of foreign policy.	关于外交政策的新方针。
741	I love our audience.	我爱我们的观众。
742	It's a very active	非常活跃
743	flow of questions.	问题流。
744	I don't think we can address all the questions, but Brian, maybe we can find	我想我们不能解决所有的问题但布莱恩也许我们可以找到
745	a way in text or something we can get to the Beijing Center staff to help to follow up.	一种文字或东西的方式我们可以得到北京中心的工作人员帮助跟进。
746	But	不过
747	maybe we pick up some mainstream questions.	也许我们想出一些主流问题
748	For example, what do you think of decoupling?	例如,你对脱钩有什么看法?
749	Decoupling is going to work for US-China.	脱钩将为中美合作.
750	And then some other audience also mentioned	然后其他观众也提到
751	we talk quite a bit about US-China.	我们谈了很多关于美中的事
752	It sounds like the whole world is like G2.	听起来整个世界就像G2
753	Do we still have some	我们还有一些
754	hope for a multi-polar world?	建立一个多极世界的希望?
755	Again, back to my question at the beginning, what about those small	再说一遍,回到我一开始的问题, 那些小东西呢?
756	countries?	国家?
757	Thank you.	谢谢
758	I'm going to answer a lot of the questions semi-consecutively.	我要回答很多问题半连续。
759	So it's going	就这样了
760	to be around seven minutes of me answering these questions one by one-ish.	大约7分钟左右,我回答这些问题一个接一个。
761	And then George, you	然后乔治,你
762	have I'm answering them right.	我回答对了吗?
763	So firstly, I don't think decoupling, I think the selective	所以,首先,我不认为脱钩,我认为选择性
764	decoupling is already happening.	脱钩已经发生。
765	So decoupling in strategically sensitive sectors, in sectors where	因此在战略敏感部门脱钩,在那些
766	national security and also- Industry focus.	国家安全和工业重点。
767	... advantages in industries may well be involved.	.可能涉及工业中的优势。
768	We look at the EU proposal concerning de-risking, quantum computing, AI, semiconductors, and	我们审视了欧盟关于去风险、量子计算、AI、半导体和
769	these are areas where even EU is seeking de-risking and selective decoupling from China.	这些方面甚至包括欧盟正在寻求与中国脱离风险和选择性脱钩。
770	And let's	让我们
771	face it, de-risking is just selective decoupling, but it's like very selective or somewhat selective,	面对它,去冒险只是选择性的脱钩, 但它就像非常有选择性或有些选择性,
772	who knows?	谁知道呢?
773	Secondly, Gina Raimondo's visit to China attested to the fact that the US is keen	第二,吉娜·雷蒙多访问中国,证明美国热衷于
774	on preserving trade ties and business ties in non-sensitive sectors.	在非敏感部门保持贸易联系和商业联系。
775	And that will and that	以及那份遗嘱
776	verdict is very much reciprocated by the likes of, say, Wang Wentao, Liu He, so on and so forth in	诸如王文涛,刘贺等都非常有反应
777	China.	中国.
778	And they've got a minister of commerce and also Tai Ban, who's still not stepped down,	并且他们还有一位商务大臣还有大班,他还没有下台
779	and hopefully Liu He will stay on for more, because Liu He is a true voice of reason and	希望刘贺能多待一阵因为刘贺是个理智的声音
780	pragmatism.	实用主义。
781	Multi-polarity, look, I also want to believe that we live in a multi-polar world.	多极性,你看,我也想相信,我们生活在一个多极世界中.
782	I certainly do believe we are trending towards multi-polarity, but I do not for a second believe	我当然相信,我们正朝着多极化的方向发展,但我并没有第二次相信
783	that this is a multi-polar world just yet, because at the end of the day, there are very few other	这是一个多极世界刚刚结束的时候,几乎没有其他
784	powers, not Japan, not the EU, even if you would account as a collective entity and a homogenous	强权,不是日本,不是欧盟, 即使你作为一个集体实体和同质人来负责
785	entity, which it clearly isn't, or ASEAN or Russia.	或东盟或俄罗斯。
786	None of these could come close to China	这些都不可能靠近中国
787	and America in terms of economic heft, strategic influence, and also the role they play in	经济冲击、战略影响以及它们在
788	multilateral and international governmental institutions.	多边和国际政府机构。
789	And in any case, Japan is perhaps	无论如何,日本也许
790	too proximate to the US in terms of foreign policy position for it to count as a separate	在外交政策立场上与美国关系太近,不能算作一个单独的
791	although I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, you know, of the contrary.	虽然我愿意相信否则,你知道,相反。
792	I would also flag that	我也会说
793	just because we are living in a bipolar world doesn't mean that regional polls and centers	只是因为我们生活在两极世界并不意味着地区民意测验和中心
794	don't matter.	没关系。
795	In fact, I'm a firm believer in the importance and the prowess of small and medium	事实上,我坚信中小的重要性和实力
796	powers.	权力。
797	I mean, the medium power diplomacy by the likes of, say, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Indonesia,	比如土耳其、哈萨克斯坦、印度尼西亚
798	which has grown to be a regionally significant and sizeable power, Mexico, South Africa, to	墨西哥、南非、墨西哥、南非、南非、南非、墨西哥、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、墨西哥、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、南非、越南、越南、越南、越南、越南、越南、越南
799	countries I would flag as being worthy of consideration as an important stakeholders	作为重要的利益攸关方,我表示值得考虑。
800	and actors, even though they're not at the same level as China and the US just yet.	和演员,尽管他们还没有达到与中国和美国的同一水平
801	And of course,	当然
802	there's the classic Russia, and Russia's not going anywhere, you know, much to the chagrin of some	有经典的俄罗斯, 和俄罗斯不会去任何地方, 你知道,很多对一些
803	and perhaps to the consolation of others.	也许是为了安慰别人
804	So that's my thought on Henry's question.	这就是我关于亨利的问题的想法。
805	Rising populism, right-wing populism, so to speak, is, I certainly think that the peak,	民粹主义的兴起,右翼民粹主义,所以可以说,我认为,最高峰,
806	the past wave of right-wing populism might have peaked.	过去右翼民粹主义浪潮可能达到顶峰。
807	And I think it peaked probably	我认为它可能达到顶峰
808	with Donald J. Trump getting voted out of office, even though he clamored to try and return to his	唐纳德·特朗普被淘汰出任总统尽管他一直想回到他身边
809	office.	办公室
810	You know, ever since then, we've seen really the rise and restoration of more sensible	你知道,从那时起,我们看到真正的崛起和恢复更理智
811	and broadly centrist politicians across a majority of advanced liberal democracies, even the UK,	和广泛的中间派政治人物在大多数先进的自由民主国家,甚至英国,
812	which was for a short while the sort of bastion of right-wing posh standoffish politics as	那只是一小段时间右翼的僵持政治的堡垒
813	epitomised by Boris Johnson's brand of populism, has now, thankfully, due to Liz Truss's completely	以鲍里斯·约翰逊的民粹主义品牌为缩写,现在,幸亏丽兹·特鲁斯完全
814	catastrophic, you know, beaten by Alexis Tenor, the UK is now once again in the hands of, you know,	灾难性的,你知道的,被Alexis Tenor打败, 现在英国再次掌握在,你知道,
815	someone that you may not find particularly charismatic, but is ultimately a trained and	某个你可能并不特别有魅力的人, 但最终是一个训练有素的人,
816	broadly qualified, a soft Tory who's culturally conservative, but by no means economically	广义的合格, 一个软的托里谁的文化保守, 但绝不经济
817	out of this world in a wrong way or outlandish.	以错误的方式离开这个世界或离开土地。
818	So I think Rishi Sunak should be given credit,	所以,我认为里希・苏纳克应该得到称赞,
819	where credit's due, so to speak.	说来话长
820	Why does the US need to work with China in AI and how can that	为何美国需要与中国在AI合作,
821	happen?	发生?
822	So answering Henry and Yang, two quick thoughts here.	所以回答Henry和Yang的问题这里有两个短短的想法
823	I think they must work with one	我认为他们必须用一个
824	another, not because they're friends or because they like one another, because they have no choice,	不是因为他们是朋友也不是因为他们喜欢对方因为他们别无选择
825	because of the devastating implications and the consequences where they do not work together.	因为这些影响和后果是毁灭性的。
826	If we take a look at the US and the USSR during the Cold War, both powers clearly did not see eye to	如果我们在冷战期间看一看美国和苏联,两国强国显然对
827	eye.	双眼
828	They didn't have much time for one another.	他们没有太多的时间彼此。
829	They didn't think, you know, very highly of one	他们不认为,你知道,非常高的
830	another.	另一个
831	And in fact, you know, we could argue that there were really more of mortal enemies than	事实上,你知道, 我们可以争论, 真正有更多的人性的敌人比
832	China and US today are.	今日中国和美国是.
833	But yet, on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation, they saw a need to	然而,关于核不扩散问题,他们认为有必要
834	cooperate.	合作点
835	On the issue of, say, ruling or reigning in biochemical weapons or other forms of warfare	在生化武器或其他形式的战争中统治或统治的问题
836	that could well be devastating and destructive, they saw the need to cooperate.	他们认为,这很可能是毁灭性和破坏性的,需要合作。
837	And even on issues	甚至在问题上
838	like space technologies where, yes, you did have the space war and space rivalry, there was an	就像空间技术,是的,你确实有太空战争和太空竞争,有一个
839	agreement not to turn the outer space into, you know, a de facto proxy battlefield.	同意不把外层空间变成事实上的代理战场
840	So even in the	所以,即使在
841	case of the US and USSR, these antagonistic rival powers could come to an agreement.	在美国和苏联的情况中,这些对立的对手可以达成协议。
842	So why is that	那为什么
843	not possible when it comes to China and the US, right, given that China and the US are by no means,	说到中国和美国,是不可能的,没错,因为中国和美国根本不是,
844	despite all the talk, I believe, as of today, you know, at the same level of vitriol and mutual	尽管说了这么多,我相信,从今天起, 你知道,在同样水平的vitriol和相互
845	antagonism as the USSR and the US were during the Cold War.	苏联和美国在冷战期间的对抗。
846	And to the extent that that's something	说到这里
847	we accept then, you know, how should researchers work together?	那么我们接受,你知道, 研究人员应该如何合作?
848	Well, this is something I'm working	嗯,这是我的工作
849	on.	继续
850	I really want to issue this as an open petition and call for suggestions and help	我真的想发布这个作为公开的请愿并呼吁建议和帮助
851	from everyone in the room.	从房间里的所有人。
852	I'm on a firm belief that ultimately the future of Sino-US relations	我坚信最终中美关系的未来
853	as President Xi very, very, you know, he was right on the money.	作为习近平主席非常非常,非常,你知道, 他是正确的钱。
854	He was incredibly, you know,	他是不可思议的,你知道,
855	on point in saying that the future of Sino relations rests with the people.	中华关系的未来在于人民。
856	He's right.	他说得对
857	And that's why humbly, you know, with all due respect, whilst governments and	这就是为什么谦卑,你知道, 以应有的尊重, 而政府和
858	bureaucrats and tenacrats are great, if we can't cut through the red tape, let's start with the	官僚和十足是伟大的如果我们不能通过繁文缛节,让我们从
859	people.	人们
860	Let's get the people to work together first.	先令众生共事.
861	Scientists, academics, private sector	科学家、学者、私营部门
862	representatives, leaders, thought leaders.	代表、领导、思想领袖
863	Let's find a platform in a space where we can have	找个平台吧,我们可以有
864	intelligent and mutually respectful discussions, no matter and whether it be if Donald Trump were	无论唐纳德·特朗普是否是
865	to regain the White House, okay, to answer Tao's question, or if Biden were to stay on	重新夺回白宫好回答陶的问题或者拜登要留下来
866	for a second term, or Ron DeSantis were to enter into the White House.	或者罗恩·德桑蒂斯要进入白宫
867	And this also allows me	这也允许我
868	to tie my answers to Sebastian's question concerning Hong Kong.	帮我解答塞巴斯蒂安关于香港的问题
869	You know, where else to	你知道,哪里还有
870	advance?	预付?
871	Where else can we advance Sino-American AI cooperation than on the soil of the most open,	除了在最开放的土地上,我们还能推进中美AI的合作,
872	most progressive and most cosmopolitan and unique city in China, Hong Kong SAR.	中国香港特别行政区最进步和最有特色的城市。
873	To me,	对我来说
874	Hong Kong is the site for Sino-American cooperation over AI, trade, finance, law, bio	香港是中美在AI,贸易,金融,法律,生物等领域合作的场所.
875	hazards, and also pandemics.	和流行病。
876	But it's also a site where China can work with other, you know, members	但同时也是中国可以与其他会员合作的地方
877	of the international community.	给国际社会的信。
878	And that is why I'm a firm believer and a fervent advocate that Hong	这也是为什么我是一个坚定的信徒一个热心的倡导者,洪
879	must become a site for Hong Kong, for Sino-Asian synergy, that China and Asian have more to gain	必须成为香港,中亚协同的场所,中国和亚洲有更大的收益
880	from working together and even more closely through the unique cosmophilist that is Hong Kong.	从一起工作,甚至更紧密通过独特的宇宙哲学家,即香港。
881	But the prerequisite for that, of course, is that Hong Kong needs to stay special and need to stay	但前提是香港需要保持特殊性,
882	unique.	独一无二
883	And even in areas like climate change, we've got folks like Christine Lowe and Ma Jun	即使在气候变化等领域我们也有克莉丝汀·洛和马俊
884	spearheading climate finance.	主导气候融资。
885	I know, Max Hong, you do a lot of work on that front as well,	我知道 Max Hong 你也在前线做了很多工作
886	whether it be in carbon trading and ESG finance and compliance and, you know,	是否在碳交易和环球证券集团融资和遵约方面
887	disclosure requirements concerning Scopes 1, 2, 3 emissions.	关于范围1、2、3排放量的披露要求。
888	These are all areas where Hong Kong	这些地方都是香港的
889	has the knowledge lead and the comparative advantage.	拥有知识引导和比较优势。
890	So the key question here is,	所以这里的关键问题是,
891	can we get John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, for instance, Xie Dash, to meet in Hong Kong?	我们能让约翰·克里和谢振华,例如谢达什在香港见面吗?
892	I hope we can facilitate that because that frankly would be a demonstration of our enduring	我希望我们能够促进这一点,因为坦率地说,这将表明我们持久地
893	strength as a beautiful, beautifully open city, as a city where 7.5 million people are not just	作为美丽,美丽,开放的城市,作为750万人不仅仅是城市
894	the people of Hong Kong, they are also denizens of China.	香港人民,他们也是中国的独裁者。
895	And to the extent that we can make it	只要我们能做到
896	happen in Hong Kong, I'd be very glad and happy to work with George, to work with Carol, to work	我会很高兴和乔治合作和卡罗尔合作
897	a place about which we can be proud because Hong Kong, whether or not Hong Kong is back,	香港,不管香港是不是回来了我们都会为这里感到骄傲
898	whether or not Hong Kong is here, whether or not Hong Kong is on the world stage,	不论香港是否在这里不论香港是否在世界舞台上
899	it doesn't depend on nor should it be contingent upon the whims of some folks sitting in	这不取决于也不应该取决于一些人的心意
900	White House, in Congress, on Capitol Hill.	白宫,国会,国会山。
901	I say otherwise, I say the future of Hong Kong	换句话说,我说香港的未来
902	rests with you and me, rests with all of us, not with those who want to see it marginalised,	与你我同在与我们所有人同在而不是与那些想看到它边缘化的人
903	who believe that it should be consigned to the dustbins of history, but instead it lies with	他们认为它应该归结于历史的尘埃,而它却与
904	in the private sector, in academia, in the business world, but also in our governments,	在私营部门,在学术界,在商界, 但也在我们各国政府,
905	our civil service and the cabinet in Hong Kong today, if we can work together to say	我们的公务员和香港的内阁如果我们能合作的话
906	internationalisation is the only path for Hong Kong and that reform is the only means of driving	国际化是香港唯一的途径改革是唯一的驱动手段
907	our city to progress, once we accept that and implement that, then I would not be too worried	一旦我们接受这个事实并付诸实施我就不会太担心了
908	about those who want to marginalise Hong Kong because there's nothing that it could do to stop	那些想让香港陷入边缘地位的人因为香港没有什么可以阻止的
909	us from being the city that we can all be proud of once again.	我们不再成为我们再次自豪的城市
910	So thank you very much for that.	因此非常感谢你。
911	Thank you all.	谢谢大家
912	Thanks, thanks, Brian.	谢谢,谢谢,布莱恩。
913	I think, you know, we can tell you're very passionate	我想,你知道,我们可以看你非常热情
914	about Hong Kong, you know, I know, you know, this is also exactly why, you know, you	关于香港,你知道,我知道,你知道, 这也正是为什么,你知道,你
915	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你知道的 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我知道你是热门的需求
916	elsewhere, you know, but you choose to, you know, return to Hong Kong, you know, to start your	其他地方,你知道, 但你选择,你知道, 回到香港,你知道,开始你的
917	academic career at HKU, you know, I personally very much respected that and on the, you know,	在香港大学的学术生涯我个人非常尊重你
918	people to people, you know, diplomacy, you know, relationship, you know, I think, you know,	人对人,你知道,外交,你知道, 关系,你知道,我想,你知道,
919	Yale is also a great example, you know, I have to say, you know, Carol knows the story, you know,	耶鲁也是一个很好的例子我必须说卡罗尔知道这个故事
920	Yale got the first Chinese students, you know, to graduate and then fast forward and now we have the	耶鲁让第一批中国学生毕业然后快速前进现在我们有了
921	Center in Beijing, you know, of course, you know, between the two events, there are so many things	在北京中心,你知道,当然,你知道, 在两件事之间, 有很多事情
922	happened, right, and not always on the happy terms, you know, for, you know, US and China, but we,	发生了,没错, 并不总是以快乐的条件, 你知道,因为,你知道, 美国和中国, 但我们,
923	you know, the history can tell, you know, you still, you know, go through, you know, not to	你知道,历史可以看出来,你知道, 你仍然,你知道,走过,你知道,不
924	mention, you know, we also got the Yali xiehui, you know, one of the first, like, sort of, you know,	提到,你知道,我们也得到了雅利谢辉, 你知道,一个,喜欢,有点,你知道,
925	falling back the NGOs, you know, now they are doing the great, well, I saw, I saw, I saw,	倒下的非政府组织,你知道,现在他们正在做伟大的,嗯,我看到,我看到,我看到,
926	Burns, you know, Ambassador Burns also went there recently to pay a visit.	伯恩斯大使最近也去拜访了一下
927	That's a great example.	这是一个伟大的例子。
928	He, as the ambassador, also tried very hard to under the history, the legacy, the connections	作为大使,他也非常努力地尝试以历史,遗产,联系
929	between the two countries, to see beyond all the challenges and problems.	两国之间,超越所有的挑战和问题。
930	So I don't want to	所以我不想这样
931	end the book talk, the live chat, where it's like, oh, you know, Jesus, the war that just	结束书谈,现场聊天, 在那里它就像,哦,你知道,耶稣,
932	you know, but I think, you know, there are still a lot of hope, you know, we have a lot of people,	你知道,但我想,你知道, 仍然有很多希望, 你知道,我们有很多人,
933	you know, working on the, you know, the most important bilateral relationship, you know,	你知道,在最重要的双边关系上,你知道,
934	in the world, which also matters, you know, for, you know, many other countries, you know,	在世界上,这也很重要, 你知道,因为,你知道, 很多其他国家,你知道,
935	for the rest of the world, you know, thanks again, you know, Carol, for the opportunity, you know,	对于世界其他地区,你知道, 再次感谢,你知道,卡罗尔, 为这个机会,你知道,
936	for us, you know, to host Brian, you know, for the, for, you know, to, to, you know, give us,	为我们,你知道, 东道布莱恩,你知道, 为,你知道,要,你知道,给我们,
937	you know, briefing, you know, on geopolitics, you know, you know, from his, his book, we really look	你知道,简报,你知道, 关于地缘政治, 你知道,你知道,从他的书,
938	to, you know, you know, catching up, you know, following up, you know, in future opportunities.	要,你知道,你知道,你知道, 赶上,你知道,后续,你知道, 在未来的机会。
939	Absolutely.	当然
940	Thank you so much, Brian, for your very passionate sharing.	非常感谢你,布莱恩,非常热情的分享。
941	To George,	对乔治来说,
942	for your very capable moderating.	为了你非常有能力的调节。
943	You know, we got to continue this, we got to continue these	你知道,我们必须继续,我们必须继续这些
944	conversations to soldier on, keep these conversations going, scientific and academic	与士兵的对话继续这些对话科学和学术
945	collaborations.	协作。
946	I want to say to all of our audiences that for all our Yale Center,	我想对观众说对于所有耶鲁中心来说
947	Beijing Zoom talks, we have a little ritual at the end where we would like to invite all of you who	北京Zoom会谈,我们有一个小小的仪式结尾,我们想邀请你们所有人
948	are able to, to switch on your cameras so that we can have a little group shot with our distinguished	能够打开你的摄像头这样我们就能和我们杰出的
949	speakers, if you can.	扬声器,如果你可以的话。
950	And I would also like to say, I would like to give a little preview	我还想说,我想给大家预览一下
951	of George's upcoming event and on November 16th, again, with us on understanding US-China relations	乔治即将到来 11月16日,再次与我们了解中美关系
952	in the context of technology and digital trade.	在技术和数字贸易方面。
953	And for those of you who are lucky ones who are	你们中的幸运者,
954	located in Beijing, George will come in person.	乔治会亲自来
955	And I would like to also extend an open invitation	我还想发出公开邀请
956	to Brian that whenever you come up north to Beijing, that you are more than welcome to come,	每当你北上北京的时候, 欢迎你来,
957	do a talk.	做一个谈话。
958	And I'm sure our audiences would be so thrilled to interact with you.	我相信我们的观众会很高兴与你互动。

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