疫情究竟何时才能结束？耶鲁医学史教授携世界经济论坛首推疫情参

疫情究竟何时才能结束？耶鲁医学史教授携世界经济论坛首推疫情参考书的中文版带你寻找答案

发布于 2022-06-20 · 时长 1:09:30

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:04	Hello everybody.	哈罗,大家好。
0:05	Good morning to those of you guys joining us from the U.S. and good evening for	早上好,你们这些家伙从美国加入我们,晚安
0:11	those of you guys joining us from China and hello as well to everybody joining us from elsewhere	你们这些家伙从中国加入我们也欢迎大家从别处加入我们
0:16	around the world.	环绕世界.
0:17	My name is Devin Lau and I am the Assistant Director for Yale Center Beijing	我叫刘德文我是北京耶鲁中心主任助理
0:21	and we're so glad to have Professor Frank Snowden join us today as well as everybody else	很高兴弗兰克·斯诺登教授今天和大家一起来
0:27	here joining us.	在这里加入我们。
0:28	First order of business if those of you guys who are here if you'd be able to turn	如果你们这些家伙能转身的话,第一关
0:34	on your webcams that would be great.	在你的网络摄像头,这将是伟大的。
0:36	We want to make this feel like a good informal conversation	我们想让这感觉像一个很好的非正式谈话

展开字幕全文（614 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Hello everybody.	哈罗,大家好。
2	Good morning to those of you guys joining us from the U.S. and good evening for	早上好,你们这些家伙从美国加入我们,晚安
3	those of you guys joining us from China and hello as well to everybody joining us from elsewhere	你们这些家伙从中国加入我们也欢迎大家从别处加入我们
4	around the world.	环绕世界.
5	My name is Devin Lau and I am the Assistant Director for Yale Center Beijing	我叫刘德文我是北京耶鲁中心主任助理
6	and we're so glad to have Professor Frank Snowden join us today as well as everybody else	很高兴弗兰克·斯诺登教授今天和大家一起来
7	here joining us.	在这里加入我们。
8	First order of business if those of you guys who are here if you'd be able to turn	如果你们这些家伙能转身的话,第一关
9	on your webcams that would be great.	在你的网络摄像头,这将是伟大的。
10	We want to make this feel like a good informal conversation	我们想让这感觉像一个很好的非正式谈话
11	with everybody together and so it's always nice to be able to see some faces so that it doesn't	和大家在一起,所以它总是很好看到一些面孔,所以它不
12	feel like everybody is just eavesdropping on a conversation between a professor and myself.	觉得每个人都在偷听教授和我的对话
13	So	这么说
14	those of you guys that are here and able to turn on your webcams that would be greatly appreciated	你们这些家伙在这里,能够打开你的网络摄像头,这将是非常感激的。
15	that way we can see some faces.	这样我们才能看到一些面孔
16	A quick introduction since some of you guys may be	很快的介绍你们中有些人可能
17	joining us for the first time.	第一次加入我们
18	Yale Center Beijing was established in 2014 as Yale's	北京耶鲁中心成立于2014年,是耶鲁大学的
19	university only university-wide center bringing the best of Yale to China and to the rest of the	只有全大学中心给中国带来耶鲁大学最优秀的
20	world.	这个世界
21	Throughout the pandemic we've been able to host many online talks of course center around	在整个大流行期间, 我们一直能够主持许多在线演讲,
22	COVID but as well as many other topics from art history to biology to astronomy	COVID 以及许多其他主题从艺术史到生物学到天文学
23	to poetry you name it we've done it and so today's topic of course is a very relevant topic to all of	所以今天的话题当然是一个非常相关的话题
24	us which is the question of when exactly will the pandemic end and other pertinent	我们的问题是,该流行病到底何时才能结束?
25	topics related to COVID from a historical perspective and so let me introduce today my	从历史的角度来看,与COVID有关的议题,所以让我今天介绍一下我的发言。
26	esteemed guest Professor Frank Snowden.	尊敬的客座教授弗兰克·斯诺登。
27	He is the Andrew Downey Orrick Professor Emeritus of history	他是安德鲁·唐尼·奥里克历史荣誉教授
28	and of history of medicine.	还有医学史
29	He attended Harvard College before earning his DPhil from Oxford	在从牛津大学获得他的DPhil之前,他就读于哈佛学院.
30	and then from there he began teaching at London University before he taught at Yale for many years	之后他开始在伦敦大学任教在耶鲁大学任教多年之前
31	serving as chair of history of science and medicine at Yale and of course teaching his very	担任耶鲁大学科学和医学史教授,当然还教授他
32	popular course on epidemics before any of us were interested in epidemics he was already teaching a	流行的流行病课程在我们谁对流行病感兴趣之前
33	very popular course on that of which I was very lucky to attend as an auditor during my years as	非常受欢迎的课程我非常幸运地作为审计师参加在我的岁月
34	undergrad and so this is going to be a wonderful conversation.	大学毕业后,这将会是一个美妙的谈话。
35	His books include Naples in the Time	他的书包括那不勒斯时代
36	of Cholera, The Conquest of Malarian Italy, and Epidemics and Society from the Black Death to the	《意大利疟疾的征服》和《从黑死病到
37	Present which I would note was just recently translated and published in Chinese by today's	我注意到,今天的中文翻译和出版
38	co-host Postwave Publishing.	联合主持邮波出版.
39	They have graciously agreed to gift us five books to today's audience	他们慷慨地同意把五本书送给今天的观众
40	members which we will they will based on the quality of the questions today that are submitted	我们将根据今天所提问题的质量,向各位成员提出
41	gift five books so as I converse with Professor Snowden about pandemics and historical epidemics	赠送五本书,以便我与斯诺登教授讨论流行病和历史流行病
42	please feel free to submit any questions you may have onto the chat box which you should see on	请随意在聊天框上提交任何您可能提出的问题,请在聊天框上看到
43	the bottom of your screen and I will be monitoring those and doing my best to select questions	你屏幕的底部我会监视这些并尽力选择问题
44	from there and many of you guys have already submitted questions online	你们很多人已经在网上提出问题了
45	and so I will also be asking questions based on those questions that have already been submitted	因此,我还将根据已经提出的问题提出问题。
46	and there were many of them over a hundred of them and so I've done my best to curate them and kind	并且他们中有很多人超过一百个所以我尽了最大努力
47	of group them together and so I apologize in advance though if we don't get to your particular	我提前向你道歉如果我们不说清楚你
48	question you know time is limited unfortunately so again welcome if you are able to turn on your	问题你知道时间有限,很不幸... ...所以再次欢迎... ...如果你能够打开你的
49	webcams it's we would greatly appreciate it if you turn it on so we could see you and	网络摄像头如果你打开它我们会非常感激的这样我们就能看到你
50	please feel free to enter any questions into the chat box while we begin our conversation so	请随意把任何问题输入到聊天框里当我们开始交谈时
51	Professor Snowden welcome back oh thank you so much I'm it's a great pleasure to be with you	斯诺登教授欢迎你回来哦,谢谢你,我很高兴和你在一起
52	and I'm looking forward to our conversation and to the questions that people are interested in	我期待着我们的对话和人们感兴趣的问题
53	asking very much so here we are two years after we first hosted you for a talk and at that point I	因此,我们在这里是两年之后我们第一次接待你谈话,在这一点上,我
54	believe you had just returned from Italy you had just recovered from COVID yourself and now we're	相信你刚从意大利回来你刚刚从COVID那里恢复过来现在我们
55	still in the process of recovering from a global pandemic or maybe we're actually still in the	仍然在从全球大流行中恢复或者我们实际上还在
56	midst of a global pandemic you can't really know until it's over I suppose but who would have	在一场全球大流行中你不可能真正知道直到它结束了,我想,但谁会有
57	expected that that two years later we're still talking about the pandemic but maybe we should	两年后,我们仍在谈论这种流行病,但也许我们应该
58	have expected that maybe we should have known that pandemics do tend to drag out over time	也许我们本该知道流行病确实会随着时间推移而消失
59	and so that is to say compared to epidemics in the past if you take into account of course that	也就是说,与以往的流行病相比,如果你当然考虑到
60	we're much more globalized now and things move at a faster pace or more interconnected I am curious	我们现在更全球化了事情以更快的速度发展或更紧密的联系
61	to know from a historical perspective and from your perspective actually what is it unusual that	从历史的角度以及从你的角度去了解什么是不寻常的
62	we're still talking about about the pandemic two years in or is this actually a pretty typical	两年来我们仍在谈论这个流行病或这其实是一个相当典型的
63	timeframe you know does this particular pandemic that we're in is it actually running a pretty	时间范围,你知道,这个特定的流行我们进入的是它实际上运行一个漂亮的
64	similar course to past epidemics that we've seen well that's a complicated issue and I would say	类似过去流行的疾病我们看到的很好这是一个复杂的问题我想说
65	I'm not amazingly surprised that we're still in the midst of this very unhappy experience with	我并不惊奇我们还处在这种不愉快的经历中
66	COVID-19 and that's for a couple of reasons one is historical and the other has been in terms of	COVID-19 原因有二: 一是历史,二是历史
67	societal responses history seems to indicate that there isn't a general pattern that all pandemic	社会反应史似乎表明,并没有一种普遍模式,即所有流行病
68	diseases conform to I think each disease needs to be examined in its own right and needs to be	我认为,每种疾病都需要单独检查,并且需要
69	determined where on that spectrum it fits the smallpox is the only disease that's ever been	确定它在哪符合天花是唯一曾经有过的疾病
70	eradicated by human agency so that is an outlier and it seems their smallpox is a very particular	被人类机构消灭,所以这是一个外层似乎他们的天花是非常特殊的
71	disease that was susceptible to that and it's not zoonotic it can't be reintroduced when you get rid	容易感染的疾病和它不是动物病当你摆脱它时它不能被重新出现
72	of it it's gone other diseases are not like that for the most part and the experience of let us say	大部分时候其他疾病不是那样的经验让我们说
73	bubonic plague is mixed it kept returning and for centuries and it's not eradicated now	血栓瘟疫是混合的它不断返回和几个世纪并且它还没有消灭
74	it's not a pandemic threat but it does cause a thousand or so deaths around the world every year	这不是大流行的威胁,但每年确实造成全世界千人死亡
75	and there's a natural reservoirs if we look at AIDS it's no longer the dreadful pandemic	如果我们看艾滋病,就会有自然的水库它不再是可怕的流行病
76	that it was but it is not gone it's still with us and still something that needs to be considered	但它并没有消失它仍然与我们在一起仍然需要考虑的东西
77	in terms of public health and health education so it's still a live issue and that if you like gives	在公共卫生和健康教育方面,这仍然是一个活的问题,如果你想给
78	us a sort of parameter a series a spectrum and it seems to me that the we could expect that	一种参数一系列的光谱在我看来,我们可以期望
79	would be a difficult matter to get rid of COVID-19 in an easy fashion and I think there was a lot of	很难轻易摆脱COVID-19 我想有很多
80	misplaced optimism and I think that's perhaps where I would begin with some of the societal	错的乐观,我想这就是我可能从一些社会开始
81	response I think is absolutely critical and we've made a number of wrong turns one of those is to	我认为这绝对是关键我们做了一些错误的转变其中之一就是
82	think that vaccines are a standalone panacea I don't want to be taken as an anti-vaccinationist	认为疫苗是独立的灵丹妙药我不想被当做抗疫苗药师
83	I've been vaccinated and boosted and I urge everyone to have vaccines it's not that it's	我接种了疫苗并且得到了提升我敦促大家有疫苗这不是
84	that we've been asking vaccines to do more than they're capable of doing they're a powerful tool	我们一直要求疫苗做比他们能做的更多, 他们是强大的工具
85	but not a magic bullet and it seems to me that we've doubt we've sort of thought of them	但不是一颗神奇的子弹在我看来我们怀疑我们是否曾想过它们
86	that this belief that there is a simple technological solution whereas in fact	认为有一个简单的技术解决方案而事实上
87	technology is powerful but it has to be seen and set in a societal context and so one of the	技术是强大的,但必须从社会角度来看待和设定它,因此,它是一个
88	problems with just relying on technology is that we stop thinking of other measures that need to	仅仅依赖技术的问题在于,我们不再考虑需要采取的其他措施。
89	be taken and vaccines are most powerful if they are not taken alone but are part of a general	疫苗如果不是单独服用而是属于普通疫苗,则最有威力。
90	strategy with other non-pharmaceutical measures and that we rather especially in the United States	特别是美国
91	where we have made the vaccines now are really a standalone measure then there's the fact that	在那里我们做了疫苗现在确实是一个独立的措施那么事实上
92	what I would say we've forgotten the communitarian aspect of pandemic disease and this is particularly	我想说的是,我们已经忘记了流行性疾病的社区方面这特别
93	true of western countries which have been noted for their individualist response to the pandemic	已注意到西方国家以个人主义方式应对该流行病
94	and that wasn't the case in many countries in southern Southeast Asia also in Africa and even	东南亚南部的许多国家在非洲甚至都不是这样
95	to a lesser extent in South Latin America where the people have been astounded especially in	在拉丁美洲南部,人们尤其感到震惊,
96	the early waves of COVID-19 at the way in which Africa was not the disaster that the World Health	早期的COVID-19浪潮在非洲的方式并不是世界卫生的灾难
97	Organization was expecting and one of the reasons for that is that there are many one could discuss	本组织期望这样做,其原因之一是有许多人可以讨论
98	that and there are many reasons behind it but one of them is revealed by the African philosophy	背后有很多原因,但非洲哲学揭示了其中之一
99	of Ubuntu which means I am because you are which means we're all in the same boat	"乌邦图"的意思是"我是" "因为你是"的意思是"我们都在同一艘船上"
100	this is a community collective problem and therefore there was a great deal of compliance	这是一个社区集体问题,因此,遵守规定的情况很多。
101	and there was also cooperation among the states and the African Union and there were very moving	并且各州和非洲联盟之间也开展了合作,这令人感动。
102	examples and creative ones in the ways in which Rwanda responded and the even the arts were	卢旺达的反应方式,甚至艺术,
103	brought into play and music generated songs about how to respond to COVID that was I think a very	音乐产生了如何回应COVID的歌曲我认为非常
104	important lesson that we need to learn all around the world particularly as we seem to have retreated	我们在世界各地需要吸取的重要教训,特别是我们似乎已经退缩,
105	to internationalist silos where a country thinks that it can simply eliminate the disease on its	国家认为可以简单地消灭这种疾病
106	own territory they've forgotten that viruses don't respect national borders and we see now	他们忘记了病毒不尊重国界而我们现在看到
107	that COVID-19 is genuinely an international problem and I think the truth of the matter	COVID-19确实是一个国际问题我认为事情的真相
108	is that we won't be successful in stopping the pandemic in ways that we would wish	也就是我们无法以我们所希望的方式成功地阻止这种流行病。
109	I don't mean total eradication but I mean control of the disease until we accept that it's	我不是说彻底消灭但我是说控制疾病直到我们接受
110	an international problem until vaccine nationalism for example and the hoarding of vaccines	在疫苗民族主义和疫苗囤积之前,
111	by wealthy countries is actually detrimental because we see that every single patient	富裕国家实际上是有害的因为我们看到每一个病人
112	事实上,COVID-19是一盘Petri菜病人和Petri菜越多
113	the more variants we're going to see and that's what we have seen and some of those variants are	我们将会看到更多的变种这就是我们所看到的其中一些变种是
114	evolving in ways to elude our immune responses so breakthrough infections are now commonplace	以逃避免疫反应的方式发展所以突破性感染现在很常见
115	and I think we'll see more and more of that and so we're not going to reach a herd immunity	我想我们会看到越来越多的, 所以我们不会达到一个群免疫
116	it looks like this is going to be a much more tenacious problem and we're going to I'm not	看起来这将会是一个更顽强的问题我们要去我不去
117	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}其实我想说的是 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}现在是时候了
118	for a call to awareness a call to arms that with what happens with the disease the good and bad	唤醒人们的觉悟唤醒人们把疾病带来的善恶
119	news is that it's up to us it depends on us and how we respond if we respond well we can radically	消息是,它取决于我们它取决于我们和我们如何反应如果我们反应良好我们可以根本
120	minimize the suffering and the cost to our societies if we adopt measures that we should know	如果我们采取我们应当知道的措施,则尽量减少我们社会的痛苦和代价。
121	are not going to be effective then the disease will be more of a problem and we could have	这样疾病就更成问题了我们本来可以
122	very troubling variants in our future so I think that's a long-winded complicated answer but I	我们未来非常麻烦的变体所以我认为这是个很长的复杂答案但我
123	require a lot of our best thinking and creative creativity in order to contain this disease and	为了遏制这种疾病需要我们最好的思考和创造力
124	that's part of the reason that it's taken us so long at this point.	这也是我们花这么长时间的原因之一
125	Great, thank you.	很好,谢谢
126	I can see	我看得出来
127	this conversation going many different directions after that very comprehensive answer but I do	这段对话在非常全面的回答之后走向许多不同的方向但我有
128	stop and say maybe we should start with a simple clarification I think people tend to use the word	停止说,也许我们应该从简单的澄清开始我认为人们倾向于使用这个词
129	pandemic and epidemic interchangeably but there are technically slight differences so if you could	流行病和流行病交替发生,但技术上略有不同,如果可以的话
130	just very quickly kind of give us definition so we know what we're talking about here.	只是很快地给了我们定义这样我们才知道我们在这里谈论什么。
131	Absolutely	当然
132	in terms of our relationship with infectious diseases there is also a spectrum	就我们与传染病的关系而言,还有一个谱系
133	and the first is we say an outbreak which is a very limited upsurge in terms of a number of cases	第一,我们说爆发, 在一些病例上是非常有限的。
134	in a community in a town even in a country perhaps then comes an epidemic which is	在一个城镇的社区里甚至在一个国家里也可能会出现一种流行病
135	there's no precise boundary between an outbreak and an epidemic.	爆发和流行病之间没有确切的界限。
136	An epidemic is when the outbreak	流行病就是爆发的时候
137	has succeeded in establishing widespread community transmission that is above all within a nation	成功地建立了广泛的社区传播,首先是在一个国家内。
138	or a region perhaps of the world and then that can explode and become something more which is a	也可能是世界的某个地区然后它会爆炸变成更像一个
139	pandemic which is an epidemic that's gone global or at least has crossed its continental boundaries	流行性疾病是全球性的或至少跨越其大陆边界的流行病
140	and is international in a meaningful and quite transmissible way.	并且以有意义和相当可传播的方式具有国际性。
141	That is once again there is	再说一次
142	no this is a bit in the eye of the beholder and there isn't a scientific marker of when	这在观众眼里有点刺痛也没有科学标记
143	an epidemic has become a pandemic but clearly there's no one who would say that deny that	但显然没有人会否认
144	COVID-19 is an ideal type of a pandemic disease just as the Spanish influenza from 1918 to 1920	COVID-19就像1918年至1920年的西班牙流感一样,是流行性疾病的理想类型.
145	that affected like COVID on every continent.	像COVID一样影响着每个大陆
146	Great thank you and so you've already talked about a	谢谢你,所以你已经谈过了
147	in the past probably most people's understanding of whether you use epidemic or pandemic would	过去,也许大多数人了解你是使用流行还是流行
148	probably started and stopped with the plague or you know black death that was probably	可能是从瘟疫开始和停止的或者你知道黑死病
149	the preeminent example that people knew and yet you mentioned that we still have the plague with	你提到我们还有瘟疫
150	us as a disease and you know both you know literally as in it still is around but also as	我们是一个疾病,你知道你字面上知道,在它仍然是周围,
151	an idea and so but you know most for the most part I don't think anybody spends much time worrying	一个想法,所以,但你知道大部分,我不认为任何人花很多时间担心
152	about catching the plague anymore and so that sort of leads to the question I do not have a friend	说要再染上瘟疫这样我就会问一个问题我没有朋友
153	who caught the plague yeah so it does happen but you know most people I don't think are	感染了瘟疫的人,是的,所以它确实发生... ...但你知道大多数人,我认为不是
154	worried about you know black death anymore so then that leads to the question of how exactly	担心你已经知道黑色的死亡了从而导致一个问题如何准确的
155	does a pandemic end both in the literal sense of a disease sort of no longer spreading	一种疾病从字面上说已经不再传播
156	and or at least not being as prevalent and as decimating but also how long does it take usually	或至少没有那么普遍和毁灭, 以及通常需要多长时间
157	from a historical perspective for it to leave the consciousness of the general population and for	从历史的角度来看,它使一般民众不再有意识,
158	it to become I guess less dominant as an idea or as a talking point and so that's sort of maybe	我想当一个想法或谈话点变得不那么主导所以也许
159	another way that pandemics end is that you know the public is no longer gripped by it anymore.	另一种结束流行病的方式是你知道公众不再被它控制。
160	Absolutely I'll trick that the I think it's so interesting the awareness of disease and of the	当然,我会骗我,我觉得它是如此有趣对疾病的认识和
161	experience and once again I keep returning to my metaphor of a spectrum because I think that's	经验,我再次回到我的比喻光谱,因为我认为
162	the best applicable response to that particular question which is to say the spectrum looks like	对这个特定问题的最佳适用答复,就是说频谱看起来像
163	this one of the most devastating pandemics ever to strike mankind was the 1918-1920	这是1918-1920年人类遭受的最具破坏性的流行病之一
164	Spanish influenza which killed the estimates keep going up and now there are many authorities	西班牙流感导致估计数持续上升,
165	who suspect that as many as a hundred million people died during the Spanish influenza so this	他怀疑有上亿人在西班牙流感期间死亡,
166	was a huge catastrophe by any standards and yet and it's only a hundred years ago it's	任何标准来说都是一场大灾难,然而,就在一百年前
167	barely beyond living memory if you want to say and therefore for that reason what's astounding	几乎超越了活的记忆如果你想说, 因此,什么令人惊叹
168	is that it's often known as the forgotten pandemic the and little history was written about it it's	被人们称为被遗忘的流行病和少许历史被写到它。
169	not remembered much in literature of the period there wasn't a great artistic response to the	这段时期的文学作品中,没有多少被人们记住过,对这段时期的艺术反应并不大.
170	influenza people forgot it now the reasons that people forgot it are interesting I think	人们现在忘记了人们忘记的原因是有趣的,我想
171	which includes such factors as what else was going on at the time and the Spanish influenza was	包括当时发生的其他事件以及西班牙流感
172	perhaps overwhelmed by people's preoccupation with the first world war during which it occurred	也许被人们对第一次世界大战的关心所压倒
173	and with the peace settlement and also with the enormous political and social cataclysms	以及巨大的政治和社会灾难
174	that followed in the wake of the war with the revolutions across Europe in Germany	在德国与欧洲革命的战争之后
175	in Russia obviously and many others as well and social change and transformation	在俄罗斯,显然还有许多其他社会变革和变革
176	was the order of the day and people were very much preoccupied with that also there was the	那天的顺序人们非常关心这个还有
177	fact that the Spanish influenza its mortality and its morbidity were concentrated in a period of a	西班牙流感的死亡率和发病率集中在一个时期。
178	few months and it's races through the body very quickly it also races through a community in	几个月后,它迅速穿过身体也穿过一个社区
179	perhaps six weeks and even through a nation in a couple of months and so it was in that sense	也许6个星期,甚至通过一个国家在几个月内,所以从这个意义上讲,
180	it was the polar opposite of the Black Death which you've mentioned as a sort of prototypical	这是你提到的黑死病的极性对立面
181	epidemic disease which was there for centuries which besieged communities for months at a time	数个世纪以来一直存在的流行病曾持续数月包围着社区
182	which people did not forget and which was not counterbalanced by Europe being overwhelmed	人类没有忘记,欧洲没有战胜它。
183	and by a general European war let us say or that sort of thing and so the plague was	通过一场欧洲战争让我们说或那种事情所以瘟疫
184	an dominant experience and it dominated it transformed literature it established public	一种支配性的经验它支配着它改变它建立的公共文学
185	health as a discipline its paintings and churches whereas that hasn't happened	卫生作为学科它的绘画和教堂而没有发生
186	with the Spanish influenza and now the question is where will I think you're at the question	现在的问题是,我想你在哪里?
187	suggests where is COVID-19 likely to stand on that spectrum and the answer to that it seems to me	说明COVID-19可能站在那个谱面上以及在我看来的答案
188	has to be that we don't know yet it really is up to us are we going to be determined	一定是我们不知道却真的要由我们来决定
189	that this is a memory that we need to preserve that we need to see and learn its lessons	我们需要保存这一记忆,我们需要看到和吸取教训
190	how we did what did things that were well how we did things that weren't are we going to remember	我们怎样做的事情是好的我们怎样做的事情是不会记住的
191	the sacrifice and heroism of health care providers who gave their lives and frontline workers	献出生命的保健工作者和前线工作者的牺牲和英雄精神;
192	in this experience the suffering of the millions of people who died myself I'm hoping	经历着数百万人的痛苦我希望
193	that this will be give rise to resilient creative responses and there's reason to think that that	并有理由认为
194	might in city planning for example there are responses of reimagining cities and using urban	例如,在城市规划中,有些反应是重新构思城市并利用城市
195	in ways that will make us more resilient and safer in the future since cities are the front	由于城市是前沿城市,因此今后将更加具有复原力和更安全。
196	lines in our response to COVID-19 there are also moving examples of community resilience	我们针对COVID-19的回应中,也有一些社区复原力的动例。
197	in places that the world health organization was most worried about the those informal	世界卫生组织最担心这些非正式活动的地方
198	communities are in third world cities like Lagos and there are the policies that	社区位于拉各斯等第三世界城市,政策有:
199	we can see here a scientific blindness that is to say public health and technology and all measures	我们在这里可以看到一种科学盲目,即公共卫生和技术以及所有措施
200	as take place in a social context and the advice for what worked and let us say in London	让我们在伦敦说
201	to wash your hands to wear a mask to practice social distancing isn't practical advice	洗手戴面具去练习社交舞不是什么实际建议
202	in the slums of Lagos and many of the other mega cities favelas in Brazil	巴西拉各斯和许多其他大城市贫民窟
203	Barrios in Mexico in Latin America in Nairobi so but what happened was that the inhabitants of	墨西哥的Barrios,在内罗毕的拉丁美洲, 但发生的情况是,
204	some of those places came together and thought that they had been forgotten and they needed to	其中一些地方聚集在一起,认为它们已被遗忘,需要
205	protect themselves and they devised methods of coping let us say not eradicating but coping with	他们设计了应对方法让我们说不要消灭而是对付
206	infection in very creative ways and I hope we'll remember that because that's very impressive	我希望我们能记住这一点,因为这令人印象深刻
207	and very important and teach us a lesson that this really is a worldwide experience and we can't	并且非常重要给我们一个教训这真的是一个世界性的经验我们不能
208	be in national silos if we want to deal with it effectively and that even biomedical science	如果我们想有效对付它哪怕是生物医学科学
209	needs to take place and unfold in a context and needs to be aware of the enormous disparities	需要在一个背景下进行和展开,需要意识到巨大的差异。
210	of human living conditions and circumstances and I think we failed that test	我认为我们失败了
211	during so far in this pandemic which is one of the reasons I think it will be with us for some time.	在这场大流行中,这是我认为它将与我们在一起一段时间的原因之一。
212	So both encouraging and discouraging	既鼓舞人心又令人沮丧
213	depending on I guess how we move who move next right which is essentially the good news is that	这取决于我猜我们如何移动谁移动下一个右这基本上是好消息是
214	it is up to us and as I also say that's also the bad news right right and so so just to clarify	这得由我们来决定正如我所说的这也是坏消息
215	when do pandemics end how do they end and I guess when will this all be over is really what	流行病何时结束? 何时结束?
216	everybody is thinking I think right and and I guess the question the answer then is those are	每个人都在想我想对了我想问题是答案是
217	all answers that are still in flux a little bit and it depends not on the the virus doesn't have	所有仍然在流通的答案都取决于病毒没有
218	agency it doesn't have intentions it's are the interface between us and the virus that's	我们和病毒的界面
219	important and how are we going to deal with this virus and that's the problem and I think that	我们如何应对这个病毒这就是问题所在我认为
220	so far public health responses have not been adequate to this challenge this doesn't mean	迄今为止,公共卫生对策不足以应对这一挑战,这并不意味着
221	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}他们不可能也不会是 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}其实我并不期望今天会是末日 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}但是我们正采取
222	a very long time about it and we can do and should do much better so that's that's really	很久了,我们可以做,应该做得更好所以这是真的
223	interesting because I mean it's you know we've already sort of pointed to many different	很有趣,因为我的意思是,你知道我们已经指出很多不同的
224	historical examples that we could have looked at and learned from and yet you know it you know so	历史的例子,我们可以看和学习,但你知道
225	in general it seems like it's it's not really a matter of if a pandemic will occur but a matter	一般来说,它似乎不是真正的问题是否发生大流行,而是问题
226	of how often and and when and yeah we were so like woefully unprepared for for this particular	多么频繁,何时,是的,我们如此悲伤地没有准备好对于这个特定
227	disease so as someone who's sort of seen this from a historical perspective were you surprised	你从历史的角度来看病时很惊讶
228	at all at how we as individuals as a society and globally responded to the pandemic or are we kind	我们作为个人作为一个社会在全球应对这种流行病,或者我们是善良的
229	of par for the course here I think I was responded I was surprised by how poorly we responded to this	我想有人回应我,我感到惊讶我们对此的反应多么糟糕
230	pandemic and the reason is that there had been warning flashing yellow lights for some time	原因是一段时间以来黄灯一直闪烁着警告
231	that the we have entered a new era of being tremendous because of globalization with what	由于全球化,我们进入了一个巨大的新时代。
232	happens in jakarta in the morning is happening in Los Angeles in the evening and in that world	早晨发生在雅加达晚上发生在洛杉矶以及那个世界
233	we need to think differently about also we have so invaded and through our environmental	我们需要有不同的思考同时我们已经如此入侵通过我们的环境
234	negligence should I say animal habitat that we have more and more zoonotic that is diseases	我该说动物栖息地我们的动物种类越来越多
235	of animal populations spilling over into human beings in this climate we had a great an enormous	在这种气候下,动物大量涌入人类我们拥有巨大的生命
236	warning light with avian flu in the 1990s we then had SARS and MERS NEPA virus there's been a whole	20世纪90年代禽流感的警示光我们感染了SARS和MERS NEPA病毒
237	even Ebola though it's not a respiratory disease so it is different but the others fit a pattern	虽然埃博拉不是呼吸道疾病所以不一样但其他的都符合规律
238	and those were rather ignored to a large extent there were warnings of Britain had an extensive	英国的警告非常广泛
239	report that said that pandemic influenza was the great threat to human society because of the nature	说大流行性流感是人类社会的巨大威胁,
240	of the society that we've built there were let us remember in the 19 no it was 2005 to seven	我们在这里建设的社会记得在19年
241	there were hearings of the US Senate and Anthony Fauci the American as many people of course know	美国参议院和安东尼·福西的听证会当然很多人都知道
242	a scientist about epidemic diseases said that it was inevitable that there would be a major	一位研究流行病的科学家说,必然会出现一个主要的疾病。
243	epidemic challenge to the world it was the same as you meteorologists could say to someone who	对世界的流行病挑战和气象学家对谁说的一样
244	lives in the Caribbean you're going to have a hurricane but it would be impossible to say in	在加勒比海,你会有飓风,但不可能说
245	advance how strong the winds and floods would be but if you didn't prepare you were very unwise	风和洪水会有多强... ...但是如果你没有做好准备...
246	similarly it would be very unwise not to prepare for this that eventuality and the World Health	同样,不为此做好准备也是非常不明智的。
247	Organization raised this very same alarm and for a little while people paid attention at people being	组织也发出同样的警报,人们有时关注人们正在遭受虐待。
248	also our politicians and public health officials but slowly the funding they did not continue in a	我们的政治家和公共卫生官员却慢慢地没有继续提供资金
249	sustained way to devise plans and funding and scientific research for dealing with the new	以持续的方式制定计划、提供资金和进行科学研究以处理新的
250	challenges so we were warned as an international community but we didn't listen	挑战,所以我们被警告作为一个国际社会,但我们不听
251	and we didn't listen in a sustained and constructive way may I contrast that with a	而我们没有以持续和建设性的方式聆听我可能与一个
252	case where society did listen I don't see it's not impossible and that's the case of Asiatic cholera	我并不认为这不可能,而亚洲霍乱就是这种情况。
253	in the wake of devastation's terrible experiences with Asiatic cholera the British scientific and	英国的科学家和科学家
254	public health community launched the reimagining of cities throughout the United Kingdom and	公共卫生界发起了对联合王国各地城市的重新构思,以及
255	retrofitting them with sewers and paved streets and housing regulations food marketplace regulations	用下水道和铺面街道对其进行改造,并制订住房条例
256	and this went across certainly across Europe and large swathes of the world where cities incorporated	这当然跨越了欧洲和大片的世界城市融合
257	this in their urban structures and so Asiatic cholera is something that is although it's still	这些在城市结构中, 以及亚洲的霍乱, 虽说仍然是
258	with us it's not a pandemic threat in those parts of the world where those reforms have been taken	和我们一起,它不是流行性的威胁在世界上那些进行了这些改革的地区
259	place the whole the city of Paris was completely rebuilt so is the city of Naples so we have the	那不勒斯市也是,所以我们有了
260	capacity to do something equally innovative and thinking about reimagining cities could well be	有能力做同样具有创新意义的事情,并且考虑重新构思城市,这非常可能
261	a part of that and so the world responded positively to Asiatic cholera and my sadness	也因此世界对亚洲霍乱和我的悲伤作出了积极反应
262	so far is that we haven't responded in such an imaginative way to COVID-19.	目前为止,我们还没有对COVID-19做出如此富有想象力的反应.
263	So you've talked a lot about how you know with a pandemic there tends to be a mark on society	所以,你已经谈论了很多,你是如何知道一个流行病... ...
264	whether that's through changes in public planning or public health art religion culture cultural	无论是改变公共规划还是改变公共卫生艺术宗教文化
265	norms all those things so and you've already given us some examples of those and you've touched on	并且你已经给我们一些例子并且你触及到
266	having now lived through a global pandemic what lessons do you think we might actually learn this	现在经历了一场全球大流行你认为我们可以学到什么?
267	time what what things do you foresee kind of actually sticking and what lessons do you think	时间,什么事情你预见那种实际坚持是什么教训你认为
268	we'll soon forget a la the you know Spanish flu?	我们很快会忘记一个你知道西班牙流感的拉?
269	Yes I think the first thing that I'm worried we're	是的,我想第一件事我担心我们
270	likely to forget as we're distracted by other priorities is the need for sustained funding	由于我们被其他优先事项分心很可能忘记需要持续的资金
271	for public health systems and for science basic scientific research into those and surveillance	公共卫生系统的基本科学研究和监督
272	of those places and those diseases that are likely it's possible to know in advance	那些地方和那些疾病很可能是事先知道
273	the kinds of diseases that we're most vulnerable to and it's possible to prepare to confront those	我们最容易感染的疾病... ...并且有可能准备对抗这些疾病
274	and there isn't in principle a reason that the world can't do that will the and we need to be	原则上,世界不能做到这一点的原因将会,我们需要
275	organized internationally will there be a for example a strong world health organization	将有一个强大的世界卫生组织
276	so that there is a unified world response and nations collaborate in dealing with pandemic	以便世界作出统一的反应,各国合作对付大流行病。
277	disease that would be an enormously powerful step and it's one that I fear we may not take I'm	疾病会是一个非常强大的步骤我担心我们可能不会采取
278	hoping it's often it's a wonderful thing to be absolutely wrong and I hope I'm absolutely wrong	希望它经常是一件美妙的事情绝对错误我希望我绝对错误
279	in my sense that that's likely not to happen but if it did it would be wonderful and again it's up	在我看来,这很可能不会发生但如果它做到了,这将是美妙的,它再次
280	to us as human beings whether we do that or not and so that is a major factor I think it's also	对我们人类来说,无论我们这样做与否,这都是一个主要因素,我想这也是
281	partly up to us at the moment in pressing pressing those in responsibilities in these fields	此时此刻,我们有责任要求承担这些领域的责任。
282	that this is what we would like as citizens to see happen that artists portray and express	这就是我们作为公民希望看到的艺术家描绘和表达
283	art is in its role role partly to provide us imagery of a lexicon in which to process	艺术的作用部分在于为我们提供用于处理
284	and share our lived experience and I think the artistic community can play a role in maintaining	分享我们的生活经验我认为艺术界在维护
285	this the environmental community can tell us a lot of the ways in which global warming and our	环境界可以告诉我们全球变暖和我们
286	devastation of the environment is making us more vulnerable I think we can learn from this pandemic	环境的破坏让我们更加脆弱我想我们可以从这场大流行中吸取教训
287	as well that social inequity is a major driving factor in pandemic disease and we need there's	社会不平等是流行性疾病的一个主要驱动因素我们需要
288	reason and principle that the issue of poverty the issue of the vast gulf between the developed	贫困问题与发达国家
289	north and the less developed south in I'm speaking only in economic terms that that can't be that	北方和欠发达的南方,我只说经济方面,不可能是这样
290	distance can't be widened and addressed so we're living in a world of globalization as you said at	距离是无法扩大和解决的因此,我们生活在一个全球化的世界正如你在
291	outset it since we're living governance I would say has not kept pace with the economic social	一开始,因为我们是活的治理者我想说,没有跟上经济社会的步伐
292	cultural pace of globalization and so I think that's a major challenge and maybe the last one	因此我认为这是一个重大的挑战也许是最后一个
293	I would say because I think people are very aware of this Dr. Tedras the director general of the	我想说,因为我认为人们非常清楚这个特德拉斯博士,总导演
294	that there was a following pandemic along with the natural one and that was a pandemic of	随之而来的流行病与自然的流行病是一起的,而这种流行病是一种流行病。
295	misinformation and disinformation and now that we live in a global world of media social media	错误信息与虚假信息,
296	I think that it's very important that that be in some way made use of in ways that are not anarchic	我认为,非常重要的是以某种方式用的方式不是无政府主义
297	so that there is some regulation of intentional misinformation and disinformation and that the	因此,对蓄意误传和造谣有某些规定,而且
298	media also can be this leads also to the possibility of greater public education I think	媒体也有可能带来更多的公众教育。
299	that's there's a lack of understanding of the science of COVID-19 at the popular level and	对COVID-19的科学认识不足
300	even amongst our authorities and that's a global problem and we could do much better in that	即使在我们的当局中这也是个全球问题我们可以做得更好
301	on that front and that's something that could also be addressed and one would like to hope that	在那条战线上,这也是可以解决的问题,人们希望
302	international agencies like UNESCO would find creative ways to deal with that issue of	象教科文组织这样的国际机构将找到有创意的办法,处理上述问题。
303	the educational content must include an understanding of the biological world in	教育内容必须包括对生物世界的理解
304	which we're immersed it's part of us we have an interface with it constantly and we need to know	我们沉浸其中,这是我们的一部分我们有一个接口不断,我们需要知道
305	more about it to appreciate the opportunities the dangers what we should be aware of in that	更多关于它,去体会机会我们应当意识到的危险
306	interaction I find the point that you made about media and misinformation so fascinating because	我发现你对媒体和错误信息的看法如此迷人
307	I know in your work you talk a lot about how in a pandemic there's the disease itself but there's	我知道你在工作里经常谈论在大流行中疾病本身是如何发生的
308	also the mirror in which the pandemic will hold to society and it'll reveal so much about the	并且它会揭示出这么多的
309	social cultural and psychological aspects of society and and sort of the deeper societal issues	社会的文化和心理方面以及更深层次的社会问题
310	that were already there or perhaps catalyze them to become more more prevalent so what do you see	或者催化它们变得更流行所以你们看到了什么
311	as some of the implications of this shall we call it the COVID era in terms of long-term societal	我们称之为COVID时代从社会的长期角度来看
312	symptoms not just the disease but sort of what are the other sort of	症状不光是疾病, 也算是另一种
313	psychological long-term effects that we may see what are the other kind of social effects that	心理长期影响,我们可以看到什么是其他类型的社会影响
314	we may see that that come out of this COVID era yes I think that we have been profoundly affected	我们可能会看到这个COVID时代的出现我认为我们受到了深刻的影响
315	and profoundly changed and I think the great challenge is will those changes be ones that	和深刻的改变, 我认为最大的挑战是,这些改变将是
316	are we take responsibility for and make sure that they move in directions that make us more resilient	我们是否要承担责任,并确保它们朝着能够使我们更有复原力的方向发展
317	rather than less so I think that's the challenge I think I one would say that pandemic diseases	而不是更少所以我认为这就是挑战我想,我可以说,流行性疾病
318	are a great in a sense I'm not thinking in religious terms here but they are a sort of	从某种意义上讲,我并不认为他们是宗教意义上的伟大但他们是一种
319	moral and spiritual drama of that reveal and demonstrate how we react to each other	道德和精神戏剧揭示和展示我们如何相互反应
320	as human beings and the great challenge is to accept we have created a global world and we	人类的伟大挑战就是接受我们创造了一个全球世界
321	with that we have created global dangers COVID-19 is nature speaking to us in a way	我们制造了全球危险 COVID-19是大自然对我们说话的方式
322	and reminding us of the world that we have created and we've created conduits for diseases	并提醒我们世界我们已经创造了和我们创造了疾病管道
323	respiratory viruses particularly to be transmitted from animal reservoirs to us	呼吸道病毒,特别是从动物水库传染给我们的病毒
324	and to be transmitted rapidly around the world and to spread in the kinds of communities that	并在世界各地迅速传播,并传播到各类社区
325	we've created those are conduits not the disease is not actually seeking those out we have created	我们创造了这些是管道而不是疾病实际上不是寻找我们创造的那些
326	and promoted and made that possible that being so we also have the possibility for closing those	并促成和促成这一点,因此我们也有可能结束这些讨论。
327	conduits we don't have to be inert victims to an onslaught of malevolent diseases they're not	管道,我们不必成为惰性受害者猛烈的恶性疾病他们不是
328	malevolent it's we who control that destiny and I think it's a call to a more responsible	邪恶的是我们控制着命运我认为这是对更负责的号召
329	and aware governance is a critical feature of what we need to do going forward and regarding	知情的治理是我们今后需要做的工作的一个重要特点。
330	the issue of social media I think that that is speaks to the problem of is it	社会媒体的问题我认为,这就是问题所在
331	a totally unregulated environment of social media seems to me rather dangerous there's a balance to	一个完全不受监管的社交媒体环境在我看来相当危险有平衡
332	have between over regulation and under regulation but I think we've heard entirely	在监管与监管之间但我想我们完全听到了
333	on the free market side certainly in the west and I think that we're paying a price for that	在自由市场一方,肯定在西部我认为我们正在为此付出代价
334	with public misunderstanding and that leads to lack of willingness to comply with public health	公众误解,导致不愿遵守公共卫生规定;
335	regulations such as getting vaccinated wearing masks social distancing and all the rest so that's	诸如戴着面具接种疫苗之类的规定社会距离以及其它的
336	a major factor too and just a reminder if people have questions feel free to enter them into the	如果有人有疑问,他们可以自由进入
337	chat box and we'll we'd be happy to try to incorporate some of those so we you know you	聊天盒,我们会很高兴尝试纳入一些这些这样我们才认识你
338	about social distancing masking hand sanitizer and things like that I guess a lot of people	关于社交迷途面具洗手机之类的事我想很多人
339	are wondering is that just going to be the new normal and maybe we can step back a little bit	想知道的是,只是会成为新的正常也许我们可以退一步
340	from that question and ask a more you know broad question here which is is there such a thing as	从这个问题问起,你更了解一个大问题问题就是
341	returning to normal is is there a normal that we return to is that even possible or are we going	回到正常是有一个正常的,我们返回的是,即使可能,或者我们要去
342	to have to deal with a new normal I think that's a wonderful question and it is something that's on	不得不面对一个新的正常, 我认为这是一个很好的问题它是一个东西
343	everyone's mind and I would my response to that would be that it's based there is a great desire	每个人的思想,我想我的反应是它的根据,有一个伟大的愿望。
344	to go back to no longer having to worry about this dreadful disease and that's entirely	回去不再担心这个可怕的疾病这完全是
345	understandable fatigue with regard to the measures that have been taken around the world to cope with	对世界各地为应付这种疾病而采取的措施感到疲劳是可以理解的。
346	it that is entirely understandable but it's not realistic to think that we can just after this	这是完全可以理解的但认为我们能在这之后
347	go back to the way the world was before if there's a logical fallacy there the world as it was before	回到从前的世界如果有逻辑上的谬误
348	is what brought us this disaster so why would we want to return to something that didn't work	是什么给我们带来了这场灾难所以为什么我们想回到一些没有成功的东西
349	and that created a great international tragedy and for that reason I think we do need	这造成了一场巨大的国际悲剧因此我认为我们需要
350	a new normal not a return to the previous normal that didn't work and involved us	新的常态,不是回到以前的常态, 它没有工作,涉及到我们
351	profound exposure to preventable dangers that's the tragedy it's not	深处可预防的危险这是悲剧它不是
352	covid is not a tragedy in the sense that it happened but it's a tragedy that its magnitude	covid不是悲剧的意义上它的发生,但它的悲剧的程度
353	was unnecessary it did not need to be the enormous disaster that we've experienced	没有必要的不需要是巨大的灾难,我们已经经历过
354	that was definitely in our control I'm not expecting that we'll ever create a world where	这绝对是我们掌控的我没想到我们会创造出一个
355	there aren't contagious diseases I'm not expecting the Garden of Eden but I do think we can do much	没有传染性疾病,我不期待伊甸园但我认为我们可以做很多事情
356	much better and that this is a very good example of a dangerous disease experience that our failure	更好的是,这是一个很好的例子危险疾病经历我们的失败
357	to respond properly transformed into an enormous catastrophe that need not have happened that's the	以适当的反应转变为一个巨大的灾难不需要发生
358	tragedy of it right many people have talked about sort of a concurrent tragedy or a concurrent sort	许多人谈论过一种同时发生的悲剧或一种同时发生的悲剧。
359	of epidemic which is sort of the psychological feeling of loneliness or you know the mistrust	一种孤独的心理感觉或者你知道不信任
360	of other people perhaps you know sort of there there's a sort of more collective psychological	其他人也许你知道某种程度上有一种更集体的心理
361	effects here of the pandemic could you speak a little bit to that in terms of	这场大流行的影响... ...你能不能说点什么?
362	have we seen do we see sort of that similar response in other historical epidemics is it	我们是否看到类似的反应在其他历史流行病是它
363	you know is it a unique nature of covid and the modern society that we're in that has caused that	你知道它是一个独特的科维德性质和现代社会,我们身处其中导致
364	or you know what exactly when we talk about the psychological impact of diseases here	或者你知道当我们在这里谈论疾病心理影响时
365	what are we looking at yes let's say that one of the enormous lessons that needs to be learned	我们所看到的是,让我们说,需要吸取的巨大教训之一
366	from this experience is the tendency to make to separate mental and physical health and we were	从这种经历中可以看出,我们倾向于将身心健康分开,而且我们曾经是
367	I mean we as a world community I'm not pointing a finger at any single entity or individual or	我的意思是,我们作为一个世界社会我不会指任何单一的实体或个人
368	country we as a world community thought of public health as and public health practitioners were	我们这个世界社会认为,公共卫生工作者是
369	trained to think in terms of physical disease and funds were allocated on that basis in terms of	训练有素地思考身体疾病,并在此基础上分配资金
370	now it happens that the history of pandemic diseases would suggest something much more complex	现在发生的情况是,流行性疾病的历史表明一些更复杂的事情
371	if we think for example it's dangerous to be too doctrinaire when talking let us say about the	举例来说,如果我们认为在谈论时过于理论化是危险的,让我们说说
372	black death because psychology and psychiatry had not emerged as disciplines and there were no	黑人死亡,因为心理学和精神病学还没有作为学科出现没有
373	diagnostic categories with which to deal with mental disease but I think it's if one looks	治疗精神疾病的诊断类别但我认为如果看起来
374	for example at the late tragedies of Shakespeare like King Lear Shakespeare was his whole life	比如莎士比亚晚期的悲剧就像李尔·莎士比亚国王一样
375	was influenced he had been in lockdown against the black death his career had normally as a	被影响他一直被锁在黑人死亡他的职业生涯通常作为一个
376	nearly come to an end and for a while he'd actually given up writing drama and thinking	几乎要结束了并且有一段时间他实际上放弃了写戏剧和思考
377	he had to become a poet because because due to the what should we say we call them social	他必须成为诗人因为既然我们该说
378	distancing provisions it wouldn't be possible to have live theatrical performances anymore	散开的表演已经不可能了
379	and so I think the late dramas of Shakespeare are actually creating portraying the mental	所以我认为莎士比亚晚期的戏剧实际上是在描绘精神
380	landscape that people were living in that had been devastated and I think that that gives us	人类生活在被破坏的地貌中我认为这给了我们
381	a good indication of how mental psychological effects were there and if you look at paintings	一个很好的提示心理影响在那里,如果你看画
382	like Bruegel's the triumph of death you can see that that is a psychologically it's almost it's	就像Bruegel的死亡胜利一样你可以看到,从心理上讲,这几乎是
383	haunting to look at it's troubling it really is a psychological trauma that we're seeing portrayed	烦恼地看着它烦恼它真的是一个心理创伤我们看到的描绘
384	in front of us and then if let's come forward to a time when we did have psychology and psychiatry	我们面前,然后,如果让我们站出来在一个我们确实有心理学和精神病学的时代
385	and we see the Spanish influenza and there it's important to note that there was a trail of	我们看到了西班牙的流感需要注意的是有一条线索表明
386	mental disease that followed and the Spanish influenza and the 1920s saw psychiatric wards	之后的精神病以及西班牙流感和1920年代的精神病病房
387	being filled with people who had a new diagnostic category dementia precox it was called now it	被新诊断类痴呆症预科的人感染现在叫它
388	disease now it may be that we don't know but it may be that that was because of social isolation	疾病现在可能是我们不知道但也可能是因为社会孤立
389	insecurity fear stress it may be that also that it was due that the disease affected the central	不安全的恐惧可能也是由于这种疾病影响到中心地区。
390	nervous system or possibly both and we can also see if we look at SARS there have been studies	神经系统或可能两者兼而有之而且我们也可以看到如果我们看非典有研究
391	in Hong Kong for example that show that people who both patients and physicians and health care	以香港为例,
392	people who experience SARS are still being treated for psychiatric disorders anxiety	患有非典的人仍然在接受精神疾病焦虑的治疗
393	post-traumatic stress disorder we would call it and one of the features of COVID-19 as we see	我们称之为创伤后应激障碍也是COVID-19的特征之一
394	already that let me just take the example of the United States which it could be any country	让我以美国为例,它可能是任何国家
395	the point is that we see this upsurge in anxiety in antisocial behaviors in opioid abuse domestic	问题是,我们看到这种焦虑的激增在反社会行为在阿片滥用家庭
396	violence all of these forms I think are part of and then there's the biological feature which	我认为这些暴力形式都是其中的一部分然后是生物特征
397	it now seems increasingly probable that COVID-19 also has central nervous system effects and that	现在似乎越来越有可能COVID-19也有中枢神经系统效应,
398	is clearly evident in long COVID which does not depend on the severity of the disease	在长的COVID中明显可见,它不取决于疾病的严重程度
399	and it seems as though we ought to be prepared for a long trail of people who are again not	似乎我们该为那些重新失去自我的人做好准备
400	who are don't fully recover and are disabled and never live up to their potential	没有完全康复残疾永远无法发挥潜力
401	or developmentally impaired and psychologically impaired and perhaps cognitively impaired as a	或发育障碍或心理障碍,或可能认知障碍
402	result of this experience so I think that's an aspect that we really do need to redefine	经历的结果,所以我认为这是一个方面我们确实需要重新定义
403	public health in terms of its mental consequences and we need to make more facilities available to	公共卫生及其精神后果,我们需要提供更多的设施。
404	people in times of large-scale disease so that people have support for dealing with these issues	在发生大规模疾病时的人,以便人们获得处理这些问题的支持;
405	and that they're treated early rather than later so I think that's a challenge that	他们受到早期而不是晚期的待遇所以我认为这是一个挑战
406	does clearly emerge from this disease and but it's not new it's not the first time that this	但这不是第一次出现
407	has happened and that's all the more reason for expecting that it probably won't be the last	事情已经发生了更有理由期待这不会是最后一次
408	so I think there what we've seen I think throughout the pandemic is sort of a	所以我觉得我们所看到的在整个大流行中
409	there's a certain sort of faith that's placed in technology and science and its ability to	有一种信仰被放在科技及其能力
410	really you know I think you talked about a misplaced faith of even being able to eradicate	真的,你知道,我想你谈论一个错误的信仰即使能够根除
411	this disease you know which you mentioned basically there's only been one disease ever	你知道你提到的这个疾病基本上只有一种疾病
412	in the history of mankind that's been eradicated right so there seems to be this strong faith	在人类历史上已经消灭了所以似乎有这种强烈的信念
413	in technology and science and I do want to say we should credit the scientists who have worked	在科技和科学领域,我确实想说,我们应该赞扬那些曾经工作过的科学家
414	tremendously to give us the technology to test and to attract diseases and even the people who	给我们技术测试和吸引疾病甚至那些
415	worked on the vaccines and were able to globally work on this and share information so quickly	在疫苗方面工作,能够在全球范围开展这项工作,并迅速分享信息
416	and so much credit to to all that work that's been done but as we see you know that even with	和这么多的功劳已经做了所有的工作, 但我们看到你知道,即使与
417	that technology we're still in the middle of a pandemic here and so sort of this faith that	那个技术,我们仍在大流行之中如此的信念,以至于
418	people have in science and progressiveness and being able to cure all these things	人们在科学和进步中拥有能够治愈所有这些事物的能力
419	doesn't seem to at least experientially you know be good enough and so how would you sort of	似乎没有经验,你知道足够好,所以你会如何排序
420	as we try to move on as a society how would you say what the relationship is with with policy	当我们试图作为一个社会前进时你会怎样说与政策的关系
421	and technology but also just what exactly can we do and should we be doing to prevent or at least	以及我们究竟能做什么以及我们是否应该做预防或至少
422	better prepare for the next pandemic?	做好下一次大流行的准备?
423	That's a fascinating issue and one that I think	这是一个令人着迷的问题我认为
424	it merits a lot of thinking.	这值得思考
425	I want in no sense to be thought to be attacking science or technology.	我不想被人认为是攻击科技
426	I believe in both and they are providing us with very powerful tools therapeutically	我对两者都有信心他们为我们提供了非常强大的治疗工具
427	and preventively the vaccine.	预防疫苗
428	One of the silver linings in this dark cloud has indeed been	黑暗云层中的一道光明确实是
429	the advancement of medical science and genetics in for testing as you said for therapeutics for	医学和遗传学的进步用于测试正如你说的治疗
430	vaccination.	接种疫苗。
431	All of those are major triumphs and they happen so quickly on the basis of international	所有这些都是重大胜利,它们在国际基础上迅速发生。
432	collaboration and that's something also that's a moving aspect of this where it's a world problem.	合作,这也是一个动人的方面它是一个世界问题。
433	Science is the most international of all human inquiry and so in that sense I think it's	科学是所有人类调查中最国际性的,所以从这个意义上讲,我认为它是
434	appropriate that it should be so but I think that there's a difference from wanting to have	应该如此但我认为这和拥有
435	and investing in science which is entirely appropriate and we do need scientific tools.	投资科学,这是完全适当的,我们确实需要科学工具。
436	The problem I think is a different one which I would call magical thinking which is not a rational	我觉得问题不同,我称之为神奇的思维这不是理性的思维
437	assessment of what science can do and in the context in which it's best able to help us it's	评估科学能做什么,在最能帮助我们的情况下
438	the idea that science should have some magic pixie dust that will fix everything for us	认为科学应该有一些神奇的精灵尘埃可以为我们修复一切
439	and we don't need to do anything more and this is not new.	我们不需要再做任何事了这不是新的
440	We could see after World War II	二战结束后我们可以看到
441	there was a tremendous belief in technology and many on the part of laymen and scientists	对科技有着巨大的信念许多是外行和科学家
442	it was not that one does each disease would be eradicated by the advancement of science so that	并不是说每一种疾病都会通过科学的进步而被消灭
443	DDT would abolish malaria and dengue fever, that the antibiotics would abolish	滴滴涕将消除疟疾和登革热,抗生素将废除
444	pneumonia and tuberculosis and they would all be eradicated.	肺炎和结核病,将全部消灭。
445	Now antibiotics are a wonderful tool.	现在抗生素是一个很棒的工具。
446	DDT can be a powerful tool but they were not the fallacy was not to say oh these are useful	滴滴涕可能是一种强大的工具,但它们并不是错的,不是说这些有用
447	but to say this is going to do all the workforce and I think that we are not in a position	但是说这可以帮到所有员工我认为我们没有立足之地
448	and never will be to use science as a standalone apart from other things which have to do with the	除了其他与科学有关的东西之外永远也不会把科学作为独立的东西
449	social contract between citizens and the people who govern them that there has to be confidence	公民与执政者之间的社会契约,即必须有信心
450	so that compliance can take place.	以便遵守。
451	There needs to be a realization that the tools will really work	需要意识到这些工具会真正发挥作用
452	best if they work within a context of cooperation and that other features of public health,	最好在合作和公共卫生的其他特点范围内工作,
453	traditional ones, humble ones also have a very important role.	传统的,谦卑的也有非常重要的作用.
454	Social distancing is tremendously	社会距离是巨大的
455	we know that it works and so why wouldn't we use it along with the vaccines that's a mystification	我们知道它有用,所以我们为什么不使用它与疫苗这是一个神秘
456	that I don't understand even to this day and also that you can't have vaccines work without	连今天我都不明白而且没有疫苗你就不能工作
457	educating the public on why they work, what will their utility be and we've seen enormous resistance	教育公众,让他们知道他们为什么工作,他们的用处是什么,我们已经看到了巨大的抵抗
458	and I think that part of that has been the failure to explain to people effectively	我认为,其中的一部分是未能有效地向人们解释
459	why they need those and we also need to realize that there are vulnerabilities that science	他们为什么需要这些我们还需要认识到科学存在弱点
460	doesn't deal with, poverty, pre-existing conditions due to pollution, animal spillover is not something	不处理,贫穷, 先前存在的条件由于污染, 动物外溢不是什么
461	we can cure with a vaccine and so there are we need to be realistic about what science can	我们用疫苗就能治好,所以我们需要现实地研究科学能做什么
462	and can't do and not make magical requests too much of science and this also I think for public	不能做也不能做神奇的请求过多的科学,我认为这是公众
463	health medical scientists they also need I would make the suggestion a major problem has been	医疗科学家们也需要我的建议是个大问题
464	hubris claiming that there are solutions that will work before we really know that they will	傲慢地声称,在真正知道解决办法会奏效之前,
465	and I think that is hubris is something that has undermined our response time and time again	我认为这是傲慢的东西破坏了我们的反应一次又一次
466	in the past and also with regard to COVID-19 we need to be more modest in our expectations	过去,关于COVID-19,我们需要更谦虚一些
467	and be sure that we don't disillusion people by telling them that, that	并且确保我们不会因为告诉别人而失去幻想
468	science can do this when it really can't.	科学可以做到这一点当它真的不能。
469	We don't know that it can do it until we actually	我们不知道它能做到这一点,直到我们真的
470	are in the process of doing it, and we haven't reached that stage yet.	我们还没有达到那个阶段。
471	So I think hubris is an	所以我认为傲慢是
472	attitude of mind that's very dangerous to us.	对我们来说非常危险的心态
473	All right.	好吧,我们走。
474	We are hitting the time limit, so thank you	我们到了时限,所以谢谢你
475	everybody for all your questions.	每个人的问题。
476	And again, I'm sorry that we're not able to get to all of them.	再说一遍,很抱歉我们没能找到他们
477	I guess to sort of this would be the last question.	我想这是最后一个问题了
478	Many people have asked regarding	很多人问起
479	the future of pandemics and epidemics and whether we're entering into this new age where we should	流行病和流行病的未来,以及我们是否正在进入我们应当进入的新时代。
480	be expecting more and more frequency of these diseases, as well as just a variety of new	以及各种新的疾病
481	emergent diseases to appear.	出现突发性疾病。
482	And I know that you're working on a new book as well.	我知道你也在写一本新书
483	So this	所以这个
484	might be a good corollary to also talk about your new book here.	说说你的新书也许是很好的必然结果
485	But can you tell us a little bit	但是,你能告诉我们一点
486	about sort of emergent diseases and whether we're stepping into a new era here?	我们是否要踏入一个新时代?
487	Are there unique	有独一无二的
488	things about society now that make us more susceptible to pandemics?	关于现在社会的事情使我们更容易感染传染病?
489	And sort of just	有点
490	what is your prognosis for the future here?	你对未来的预测是什么?
491	Okay.	摆
492	I think I would say that	我想我会说
493	one of the good news and bad news is that we're still human beings.	好消息和坏消息之一是,我们仍然是人类。
494	And human beings live	人类活着
495	in a natural environment in which there are almost infinite numbers of microbial agents that can do	在自然环境中,微生物剂数量几乎无限
496	us harm of many, many different types.	我们伤害了很多,很多不同的类型。
497	That is not a new problem.	这不是一个新问题。
498	That is the human dilemma.	这就是人类的困境。
499	And I don't think that's going away.	亦不思议灭.
500	There seems, I would regard it as a kind of hubris,	看来,我认为这是一种傲慢,
501	the idea that this is something unprecedented.	这个想法是前所未有的。
502	That really shows amnesia.	这真的显示出失忆症。
503	And that amnesia isn't helpful to us.	而那个失忆症对我们没有帮助
504	We are inescapably in a part of a biological matrix.	我们不可避免地处于生物基质的一部分。
505	And we are vulnerable to diseases.	我们很容易感染疾病。
506	And there will be, certainly in our future, pandemic challenges,	当然,我们今后将面临大流行病的挑战,
507	epidemic challenges that will emerge.	将出现的流行病挑战。
508	What I think we can say, though, is that our society has changed.	但是,我认为我们可以说,我们的社会已经改变。
509	And during the Industrial Revolution, we as a world were vulnerable to diseases transmitted	在工业革命期间,我们这个世界很容易感染疾病
510	through contaminated food and water because of the social conditions of the industrialization	由于工业化的社会条件,
511	process and urbanization unregulated, uncontrolled.	(c) 进程和城市化不受管制、不受管制。
512	And so, Asiatic cholera was a major threat.	因此,亚洲霍乱是一个重大威胁。
513	But we no longer live in that world.	但我们不再生活在那个世界上。
514	And although cholera is still present in the world,	虽然霍乱仍在世界上存在,
515	sadly so, it's not a pandemic threat because nations that have	可悲的是,这不是一种流行病威胁,因为国家有
516	sanitary infrastructure are no longer vulnerable.	卫生基础设施不再脆弱。
517	But that doesn't mean we're	但这并不意味着我们
518	invulnerable to disease just to a particular type.	病情无法改变
519	We've created a new type of society,	我们创造了一种新的社会
520	highly industrialized, highly globalized.	高度工业化、高度全球化。
521	And that hasn't ended the disease challenge.	这并没有结束疾病的挑战。
522	It's just changed it.	刚改.
523	So now we're vulnerable, but to new types of diseases.	所以现在我们很容易感染新类型的疾病。
524	And we're particularly	我们特别
525	entered an era where what we're most vulnerable to is pulmonary viral diseases, because they	进入一个我们最容易感染肺病毒病的时代因为他们
526	are transmitted partly because they're zoonotic.	部分是因为它们具有动物性
527	And we have radically altered our relation to	我们彻底改变了我们的关系
528	the animal world, destroying biodiversity, deforesting the planet so that we have many	破坏生物多样性破坏地球使我们拥有许多
529	more interactions with bats, with all kinds of animals, with whom human contact was much	更多与蝙蝠的互动, 与各种动物, 他们的人接触很多
530	more limited in the past.	过去比较有限。
531	So it's not by chance that the new diseases that have been emerging	所以新的疾病不是偶然出现的
532	are overwhelmingly zoonotic from animal spillover.	动物的溢出物是动物的动物
533	That's not by chance.	这不是偶然的。
534	That's the kind of society	这就是那种社会
535	we've created.	我们创造了。
536	And we're also very vulnerable to diseases in terms of the numbers of people	从人数来看,我们也非常容易感染疾病
537	in our planet.	在我们的星球上
538	We have an enormous number of global population is huge, perhaps not sustainable	全球人口众多,也许无法持续
539	in a healthy way in terms of the resources of the planet.	以健康的方式以地球的资源。
540	We also have dense agglomerations	我们也有密集的聚集
541	of mega cities throughout the world, and they're becoming more and more of them.	全世界特大城市, 和它们正变得越来越多。
542	It's not that	不是那样的
543	there will be an Africa where urbanization is proceeding apace.	将会有一个城市化正在迅速发展的非洲。
544	There will be by 2100,	到2100年时,
545	a number of cities with as many as 70 million people in them.	许多城市人口多达7 000万。
546	And we haven't learned how to	我们还没学会如何
547	have healthy cities with that degree of density and that size.	拥有如此密集和如此规模的健康城市。
548	And so we are vulnerable to	所以我们很容易被
549	these pulmonary diseases that transmit readily in that environment.	这些肺病很容易在这种环境中传播。
550	And so I think that that's	所以我认为
551	what we're facing, which is not something new in the sense that we've always been vulnerable	我们面对的并不是什么新鲜事从我们一直处于弱势的意义上来说
552	to disease from the plague of Athens in the 5th century BC.	到公元前5世纪雅典瘟疫的疾病。
553	And before that, but we have	在那之前, 但我们有
554	historical accounts of that event.	事件的历史记录。
555	The fall of Rome was partly a result of malaria.	罗马的沦陷部分是由于疟疾.
556	We had the	我们有
557	plague of Justinian.	贾斯汀的瘟疫
558	They've always been vulnerable.	他们总是很脆弱
559	Leprosy was rampant in the Middle Ages.	麻风病在中世纪流行.
560	So vulnerability to disease is the lot of human beings.	因此,易感染疾病是人类的命运。
561	But we need to be	但我们需要
562	mindful and intelligent of what kinds of diseases are we vulnerable to.	注意并明智地意识到我们容易受到何种疾病的伤害。
563	And I feel absolutely	我觉得绝对
564	certain we will have other pandemic challenges.	当然,我们将面临其他流行病挑战。
565	There's something dangerous in the idea that	有种危险的想法是
566	we're tired of this and we want to get back to our lives because nature hasn't finished with us.	我们厌倦了这一切我们想要回到我们的生活因为大自然还没有结束我们。
567	Nature will always be with us.	大自然将永远与我们同在。
568	And it does if we're tired of nature, nature is not tired of us.	如果我们厌倦自然,自然也不会厌倦我们。
569	And so we need to deal intelligently with nature and the microbial world because we're immersed in	所以我们需要明智地处理自然和微生物世界,因为我们沉浸在
570	it.	这个
571	And we see our history over the last 100 years has been the growing threat of pulmonary	我们过去100年的历史是肺的日益威胁
572	viral diseases from the Spanish influenza through the whole list is now becoming	整个西班牙流感的病毒性疾病正在成为
573	depressingly long.	令人沮丧的长久。
574	But that should tell us something.	但这应该告诉我们一些事情。
575	We should pay attention that it's	我们应该注意,这是
576	a particular type of disease.	一种特定的疾病。
577	And why won't there be other viral diseases transmitted by the	为何不会有其他病毒性疾病通过
578	pulmonary route through the air that will challenge us in the future?	肺道通过空气未来会挑战我们?
579	And I'm not saying	我不是说
580	will overwhelm or destroy us, but will challenge and how devastating they are will depend on how	将战胜或摧毁我们,但挑战以及其破坏程度将取决于
581	we have prepared.	我们已经准备好了。
582	So preparedness is, I think, one of the things that we must see as this experience	因此,我认为,准备是我们必须看到的一件事作为这种经验
583	a call to arms, not to despair, but to resilient determination, not to have	* 要求拥有武器,而不是绝望,而是有坚韧的决心,
584	these enormous tragedies that are so often preventable.	这些巨大的悲剧往往可以预防。
585	Great.	不错
586	Thank you so much	谢谢
587	for such a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion.	如此迷人和广泛的讨论。
588	And I feel like we could talk	我觉得我们可以谈谈
589	for the whole day if we wanted to.	一整天,如果我们想。
590	Thank you so much.	非常感谢
591	Thank you everybody for joining us.	谢谢大家加入我们
592	Thank you for great questions.	谢谢你的好问
593	Thank you for Post-Wave Publishing for generously providing	感谢您慷慨的出版
594	some books.	一些书。
595	So they will get in touch directly with people who have asked the questions.	因此,他们将直接与提出问题的人联系。
596	And	还有
597	thank you all for joining us.	谢谢大家加入我们。
598	I will unmute everybody so that you guys can all have a	我会解除每个人的默念这样你们就可以有一个
599	chance to thank Professor yourself.	有机会感谢教授自己。
600	And per tradition, if people would be willing to turn	如果人们愿意改变传统
601	on their webcams, we can take a group photo together as a slight way of commemorating	在他们的网络摄像头上,我们可以一起拍一张集体照片,作为纪念
602	being together here.	在一起在这里。
603	And wonderful.	和伟大的。
604	I'd like to thank all of you for being here.	悉令一切众生.
605	And it's	这是
606	I'm very grateful for the very interesting and challenging questions that were asked.	我非常感谢大家提出的非常有趣和具有挑战性的问题。
607	So	这么说
608	thank you so much.	非常感谢
609	All right.	好吧,我们走。
610	Thank you.	谢谢
611	All right.	好吧,我们走。
612	Thank you, everybody.	谢谢各位
613	Have a good rest of the day.	祝你们休息愉快
614	Absolutely.	当然

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